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2021-22 Divizia Nationala Season

112 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

70 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Petrocub Hincesti

4.90 points above expected

64 points · 59.10 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sfintul Gheorghe

4.18 points below expected

38 points · 42.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 28 22 4 2 70 72 8 +64 68.60 +1.40
2 Petrocub Hincesti 28 20 4 4 64 59 20 +39 59.10 +4.90
3 Milsami Orhei 28 15 6 7 51 47 31 +16 47.10 +3.90
4 Sfintul Gheorghe 28 10 8 10 38 32 39 -7 42.18 -4.18
5 Balti 28 11 3 14 36 33 39 -6 33.74 +2.26
6 Dinamo-Auto 28 9 5 14 32 32 72 -40 28.41 +3.59
7 Zimbru 28 7 6 15 27 29 46 -17 29.70 -2.70
8 Floresti 28 0 0 28 0 12 61 -49 4.08 -4.08

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Petrocub Hincesti 64 59.10 +4.90
2 Milsami Orhei 51 47.10 +3.90
3 Dinamo-Auto 32 28.41 +3.59
4 Balti 36 33.74 +2.26
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 70 68.60 +1.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sfintul Gheorghe 38 42.18 -4.18
2 Floresti 0 4.08 -4.08
3 Zimbru 27 29.70 -2.70
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 70 68.60 +1.40
5 Balti 36 33.74 +2.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 6 Jul 18 – Aug 25 1 in 59
2 Dinamo-Auto 3 Sep 12 – Sep 22 1 in 24
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 9 Sep 22 – Nov 28 1 in 11
4 Zimbru 2 Jul 2 – Jul 17 1 in 6
5 Petrocub Hincesti 5 Aug 1 – Aug 25 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floresti 28 Jul 1 – May 14 1 in 17,487
2 Milsami Orhei 4 Mar 18 – Apr 17 1 in 185
3 Balti 6 Oct 23 – Mar 12 1 in 37
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Jul 1 – Jul 1 1 in 15
5 Zimbru 4 Aug 1 – Aug 20 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 11 Jul 2 – Sep 26 1 in 56
2 Sfintul Gheorghe 5 Oct 23 – Nov 27 1 in 18
3 Dinamo-Auto 4 Aug 26 – Sep 22 1 in 12
4 Balti 3 Apr 9 – Apr 22 1 in 10
5 Zimbru 3 Aug 26 – Sep 19 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floresti 28 Jul 1 – May 14 1 in 59
2 Milsami Orhei 4 Mar 18 – Apr 17 1 in 22
3 Sfintul Gheorghe 4 Jul 2 – Aug 1 1 in 10
4 Balti 6 Oct 23 – Mar 12 1 in 7
5 Zimbru 6 Sep 19 – Oct 22 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1788 67 +5 11 12.0 -1.0
Petrocub Hincesti 1677 61 +41 15 11.5 +3.5
Milsami Orhei 1463 48 -15 5 7.3 -2.3
Sfintul Gheorghe 1419 32 -13 4 6.8 -2.8
Balti 1361 30 +62 10 5.3 +4.7
Dinamo-Auto 1276 29 -63 1 3.7 -2.7
Zimbru 1285 24 -12 4 3.5 +0.5
Floresti 1088 0 -41 0 2.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL DIN FLO MO PH SG ST ZIM
Balti —
2-0-2
6.13
4-0-0
8.61
1-1-2
3.37
0-0-4
2.03
0-2-2
4.27
1-0-3
1.37
3-0-1
6.10
Dinamo-Auto
2-0-2
5.13
 —
4-0-0
7.88
1-1-2
2.71
0-1-3
1.69
1-1-2
3.81
0-0-4
1.19
1-2-1
5.83
Floresti
0-0-4
2.70
0-0-4
3.41
 —
0-0-4
1.65
0-0-4
1.16
0-0-4
2.14
0-0-4
0.74
0-0-4
3.54
Milsami Orhei
2-1-1
7.92
2-1-1
8.60
4-0-0
9.74
 —
1-1-2
3.56
1-2-1
6.86
1-1-2
2.20
4-0-0
8.08
Petrocub Hincesti
4-0-0
9.32
3-1-0
9.70
4-0-0
10.31
2-1-1
7.72
 —
3-1-0
8.40
0-1-3
3.76
4-0-0
9.66
Sfintul Gheorghe
2-2-0
7.00
2-1-1
7.46
4-0-0
9.20
1-2-1
4.41
0-1-3
2.90
 —
0-0-4
1.61
1-2-1
7.35
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-0-1
10.05
4-0-0
10.26
4-0-0
10.83
2-1-1
9.14
3-1-0
7.52
4-0-0
9.78
 —
2-2-0
10.32
Zimbru
1-0-3
5.16
1-2-1
5.43
4-0-0
7.74
0-0-4
3.21
0-0-4
1.72
1-2-1
3.92
0-2-2
1.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.95 +11.4
Allowed 0.71 -9.0
Differential 0.88 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%9.82%4.91%4.46%2.68%2.68%28.12%
19.82%8.93%3.12%3.12%1.79%2.23%29.02%
24.91%3.12%2.68%0.89%0.89%0.45%12.95%
34.46%3.12%0.89%0.89%0.89%—10.27%
42.68%1.79%0.89%0.89%——6.25%
5+2.68%2.23%0.45%——8.04%13.39%
Total28.12%29.02%12.95%10.27%6.25%13.39%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.68 1.68 2.44
CV 1.26 1.26 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 112

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%14.29%7.14%7.14%——32.14%
17.14%7.14%10.71%———25.00%
23.57%3.57%—3.57%7.14%—17.86%
33.57%7.14%3.57%———14.29%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+—————7.14%7.14%
Total17.86%35.71%21.43%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.32 -0.21
SD 1.31 1.31 1.66
CV 1.19 0.99 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%3.57%10.71%3.57%10.71%39.29%
114.29%——3.57%7.14%7.14%32.14%
2—3.57%7.14%———10.71%
3———3.57%——3.57%
4——3.57%———3.57%
5+—3.57%3.57%——3.57%10.71%
Total21.43%10.71%17.86%17.86%10.71%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.54 -1.43
SD 1.52 2.32 2.92
CV 1.38 0.91 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min -1 -1 -7

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%3.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%32.14%
1———17.86%7.14%7.14%32.14%
2———————
3————3.57%—3.57%
4———————
5+—————32.14%32.14%
Total—10.71%3.57%25.00%17.86%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.11 1.86 -1.75
SD 0.99 2.26 1.58
CV 9.28 1.21 —
Max 3 5 +0
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.71%7.14%———17.86%
114.29%14.29%—3.57%——32.14%
23.57%7.14%7.14%——3.57%21.43%
37.14%3.57%————10.71%
4—7.14%—3.57%——10.71%
5+3.57%————3.57%7.14%
Total28.57%42.86%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.07 +0.57
SD 1.47 1.21 1.83
CV 0.90 1.13 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min -1 -1 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
117.86%7.14%3.57%———28.57%
27.14%3.57%————10.71%
37.14%3.57%3.57%———14.29%
43.57%—3.57%3.57%——10.71%
5+7.14%7.14%———3.57%17.86%
Total50.00%25.00%17.86%3.57%—3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.07 0.68 +1.39
SD 1.88 0.94 1.97
CV 0.91 1.39 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min -1 -1 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%7.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%35.71%
110.71%17.86%————28.57%
23.57%3.57%7.14%———14.29%
3————3.57%—3.57%
43.57%3.57%————7.14%
5+—3.57%———7.14%10.71%
Total21.43%39.29%14.29%3.57%10.71%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.32 -0.25
SD 1.49 1.52 2.15
CV 1.39 1.15 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min -1 -1 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%7.14%————10.71%
110.71%10.71%————21.43%
221.43%—————21.43%
310.71%7.14%————17.86%
410.71%—————10.71%
5+10.71%3.57%———3.57%17.86%
Total67.86%28.57%———3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.54 0.25 +2.29
SD 2.17 0.52 2.24
CV 0.86 2.07 —
Max 7 1 +7
Min -1 -1 -1

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%17.86%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%39.29%
13.57%14.29%10.71%——3.57%32.14%
2—3.57%—3.57%——7.14%
37.14%3.57%—3.57%——14.29%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+—————3.57%3.57%
Total17.86%39.29%14.29%14.29%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.61 -0.61
SD 1.25 1.59 2.18
CV 1.25 0.99 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min -1 -1 -6

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1788 70 68.60 +1.40 64.0% 59 60 65 69 72 76 80
Petrocub Hincesti 1677 64 59.10 +4.90 79.0% 42 46 54 60 63 70 73
Milsami Orhei 1463 51 47.10 +3.90 74.0% 28 35 43 48 52 56 61
Sfintul Gheorghe 1419 38 42.18 -4.18 28.0% 23 33 38 41 47 53 54
Balti 1361 36 33.74 +2.26 68.0% 21 25 30 34 37 42 47
Zimbru 1285 27 29.70 -2.70 38.0% 14 21 26 29 33 40 45
Dinamo-Auto 1276 32 28.41 +3.59 73.0% 9 17 25 28 33 37 42
Floresti 1088 0 4.08 -4.08 0.0% -4 -2 1 4 7 12 13

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.79%
No Edge
42.86%16.07%41.07%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.10 Elo pts.
180 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.3
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
87%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Tight Race
00.360.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.59 * Some Luck: 4.59 to 6.89 * Lucky: 6.89 to 9.19 * Wild Swing: 9.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.36 * Close: 0.36 to 0.55 * Off: 0.55 to 0.73 * Way Off: 0.73 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.81 points
Some Luck
05.7414
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.451
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
79.00%
Petrocub Hincesti
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Floresti
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.29
Lopsided
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 225.41
3.03
Wide Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
79%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.42
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.99
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.98
Near-Lock
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Solid Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.36
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.44
Very Underconfident
0.4329691.001.56703
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol87.00%13.00%——————
Petrocub Hincesti13.00%79.00%5.00%3.00%————
Milsami Orhei—3.00%66.00%19.00%8.00%4.00%——
Sfintul Gheorghe—5.00%26.00%53.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%—
Balti——1.00%15.00%44.00%29.00%11.00%—
Dinamo-Auto———5.00%20.00%27.00%47.00%1.00%
Zimbru——2.00%5.00%20.00%34.00%39.00%—
Floresti——————1.00%99.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Balti 89.00% 11.00% —
Milsami Orhei 100% — —
Petrocub Hincesti 100% — —
Sfintul Gheorghe 98.00% 2.00% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% — —
Zimbru 61.00% 39.00% —
Dinamo-Auto 52.00% 47.00% 1.00%
Floresti — 1.00% 99.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2021-07-01 Balti L 0-163.5 1716 1316 79.00% 14.42% 6.58%+2.24 -18.5 0
2021-07-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-063.5 1316 1716 6.58% 14.42% 79.00%-2.24 +18.5 3
2021-07-01 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-136.3 1248 1597 8.79% 15.39% 75.81%-1.92 -2.5 0
2021-07-01 @ Floresti W 1-036.3 1597 1248 75.81% 15.39% 8.79%+1.92 +2.5 3
2021-07-02 Dinamo-Auto W 3-041.5 1273 1339 32.24% 18.42% 49.34%-0.35 +32.7 3
2021-07-02 @ Zimbru L 0-341.5 1339 1273 49.34% 18.42% 32.24%+0.35 -32.7 0
2021-07-02 Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-160.2 1444 1425 43.94% 18.52% 37.54%+0.12 -0.3 1
2021-07-02 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-160.2 1425 1444 37.54% 18.52% 43.94%-0.12 +0.3 1
2021-07-17 Floresti W 4-034.8 1306 1246 49.54% 18.42% 32.04%+0.35 +29.7 6
2021-07-17 @ Zimbru L 0-434.8 1246 1306 32.04% 18.42% 49.54%-0.35 -29.7 0
2021-07-18 Milsami Orhei L 0-141.0 1334 1444 26.86% 18.21% 54.94%-0.59 -7.1 3
2021-07-18 @ Balti W 1-041.0 1444 1334 54.94% 18.21% 26.86%+0.59 +7.1 4
2021-07-18 Sfintul Gheorghe D 2-262.3 1306 1425 25.77% 18.14% 56.09%-0.64 +1.2 1
2021-07-18 @ Dinamo-Auto D 2-262.3 1425 1306 56.09% 18.14% 25.77%+0.64 -1.3 2
2021-07-24 Dinamo-Auto L 0-139.0 1216 1307 29.02% 18.31% 52.67%-0.49 -7.6 0
2021-07-24 @ Floresti W 1-039.0 1307 1216 52.67% 18.31% 29.02%+0.49 +7.6 4
2021-07-25 Balti D 1-157.5 1424 1327 54.22% 18.24% 27.53%+0.56 -1.5 3
2021-07-25 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-157.5 1327 1424 27.53% 18.24% 54.22%-0.56 +1.5 4
2021-07-25 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-164.1 1451 1599 22.72% 17.93% 59.36%-0.80 +13.3 7
2021-07-25 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-264.1 1599 1451 59.36% 17.93% 22.72%+0.80 -13.3 3
2021-07-31 Balti L 1-443.6 1315 1328 39.27% 18.54% 42.20%-0.06 -22.8 4
2021-07-31 @ Dinamo-Auto W 4-143.6 1328 1315 42.20% 18.54% 39.27%+0.06 +22.8 7
2021-07-31 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-338.9 1208 1697 4.35% 12.97% 82.68%-2.69 -1.9 0
2021-07-31 @ Floresti W 3-138.9 1697 1208 82.68% 12.97% 4.35%+2.69 +1.9 3
2021-08-01 Milsami Orhei L 0-238.5 1336 1464 24.76% 18.08% 57.16%-0.70 -12.5 6
2021-08-01 @ Zimbru W 2-038.5 1464 1336 57.16% 18.08% 24.76%+0.70 +12.5 10
2021-08-01 Sfintul Gheorghe W 5-040.4 1586 1422 61.66% 17.73% 20.61%+0.92 +24.8 6
2021-08-01 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-540.4 1422 1586 20.61% 17.73% 61.66%-0.92 -24.8 3
2021-08-07 Dinamo-Auto W 7-136.7 1699 1292 79.34% 14.30% 6.36%+2.27 +7.5 6
2021-08-07 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-736.7 1292 1699 6.36% 14.30% 79.34%-2.27 -7.5 4
2021-08-07 Petrocub Hincesti L 2-448.8 1351 1610 13.57% 16.71% 69.72%-1.42 -5.5 7
2021-08-07 @ Balti W 4-248.8 1610 1351 69.72% 16.71% 13.57%+1.42 +5.5 9
2021-08-08 Floresti W 4-135.3 1477 1206 71.07% 16.47% 12.46%+1.52 +8.0 13
2021-08-08 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-435.3 1206 1477 12.46% 16.47% 71.07%-1.52 -8.0 0
2021-08-08 Zimbru W 1-041.1 1398 1323 51.42% 18.36% 30.23%+0.43 +7.9 6
2021-08-08 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-141.1 1323 1398 30.23% 18.36% 51.42%-0.43 -7.9 6
2021-08-14 Balti L 2-351.9 1315 1346 36.91% 18.52% 44.57%-0.15 -8.4 6
2021-08-14 @ Zimbru W 3-251.9 1346 1315 44.57% 18.52% 36.91%+0.15 +8.4 10
2021-08-14 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-236.0 1284 1616 9.56% 15.66% 74.78%-1.82 -5.0 4
2021-08-14 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-036.0 1616 1284 74.78% 15.66% 9.56%+1.82 +5.0 12
2021-08-15 Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-534.4 1198 1406 17.36% 17.35% 65.29%-1.13 -14.3 0
2021-08-15 @ Floresti W 5-134.4 1406 1198 65.29% 17.35% 17.36%+1.13 +14.3 9
2021-08-20 Floresti W 3-139.0 1354 1184 62.34% 17.67% 19.99%+0.96 +8.9 13
2021-08-20 @ Balti L 1-339.0 1184 1354 19.99% 17.67% 62.34%-0.96 -8.9 0
2021-08-20 Zimbru W 1-039.4 1621 1307 74.11% 15.83% 10.07%+1.76 +2.8 15
2021-08-20 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-139.4 1307 1621 10.07% 15.83% 74.11%-1.76 -2.8 6
2021-08-21 Dinamo-Auto W 4-138.1 1485 1279 65.73% 17.30% 16.98%+1.16 +10.8 16
2021-08-21 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-438.1 1279 1485 16.98% 17.30% 65.73%-1.16 -10.8 4
2021-08-25 Floresti W 2-031.3 1624 1175 81.28% 13.57% 5.15%+2.51 +2.6 18
2021-08-25 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-231.3 1175 1624 5.15% 13.57% 81.28%-2.51 -2.6 0
2021-08-25 Milsami Orhei L 3-458.7 1420 1496 30.94% 18.38% 50.68%-0.40 -7.0 9
2021-08-25 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 4-358.7 1496 1420 50.68% 18.38% 30.94%+0.40 +7.0 19
2021-08-26 Zimbru D 3-364.7 1269 1304 36.23% 18.51% 45.26%-0.18 +0.3 5
2021-08-26 @ Dinamo-Auto D 3-364.7 1304 1269 45.26% 18.51% 36.23%+0.18 -0.3 7
2021-08-28 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-241.9 1363 1707 9.00% 15.47% 75.52%-1.89 -4.7 13
2021-08-28 @ Balti W 2-041.9 1707 1363 75.52% 15.47% 9.00%+1.89 +4.7 9
2021-09-11 Balti D 1-160.1 1503 1358 59.68% 17.90% 22.41%+0.82 -2.1 20
2021-09-11 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-160.1 1358 1503 22.41% 17.90% 59.68%-0.82 +2.1 14
2021-09-11 Zimbru L 1-340.3 1172 1304 24.48% 18.06% 57.46%-0.71 -10.7 0
2021-09-11 @ Floresti W 3-140.3 1304 1172 57.46% 18.06% 24.48%+0.71 +10.7 10
2021-09-12 Dinamo-Auto L 0-149.2 1413 1269 59.63% 17.91% 22.47%+0.82 -14.2 9
2021-09-12 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-049.2 1269 1413 22.47% 17.91% 59.63%-0.82 +14.2 8
2021-09-12 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-054.7 1711 1626 52.71% 18.31% 28.98%+0.49 +14.4 12
2021-09-12 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-254.7 1626 1711 28.98% 18.31% 52.71%-0.49 -14.4 18
2021-09-17 Milsami Orhei D 1-168.8 1612 1500 55.97% 18.15% 25.88%+0.64 -1.7 19
2021-09-17 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-168.8 1500 1612 25.88% 18.15% 55.97%-0.64 +1.7 21
2021-09-17 Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-248.2 1360 1399 35.82% 18.50% 45.68%-0.20 -8.6 14
2021-09-17 @ Balti W 2-148.2 1399 1360 45.68% 18.50% 35.82%+0.20 +8.6 12
2021-09-18 Floresti W 1-037.5 1283 1162 57.11% 18.08% 24.81%+0.69 +6.7 11
2021-09-18 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-137.5 1162 1283 24.81% 18.08% 57.11%-0.69 -6.7 0
2021-09-19 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.5 1314 1726 6.44% 14.34% 79.22%-2.26 +4.3 11
2021-09-19 @ Zimbru D 1-167.5 1726 1314 79.22% 14.34% 6.44%+2.26 -4.3 13
2021-09-21 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-145.5 1407 1610 17.69% 17.40% 64.91%-1.11 -4.9 12
2021-09-21 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-045.5 1610 1407 64.91% 17.40% 17.69%+1.11 +4.9 22
2021-09-22 Dinamo-Auto L 2-452.9 1352 1290 49.76% 18.41% 31.83%+0.36 -17.6 14
2021-09-22 @ Balti W 4-252.9 1290 1352 31.83% 18.41% 49.76%-0.36 +17.6 14
2021-09-22 Floresti W 4-028.9 1721 1155 85.73% 11.45% 2.83%+3.16 +2.6 16
2021-09-22 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-428.9 1155 1721 2.83% 11.45% 85.73%-3.16 -2.6 0
2021-09-22 Zimbru W 1-039.3 1502 1319 63.68% 17.53% 18.78%+1.03 +5.2 24
2021-09-22 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-139.3 1319 1502 18.78% 17.53% 63.68%-1.03 -5.2 11
2021-09-25 Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-156.9 1314 1402 29.32% 18.32% 52.36%-0.48 +1.3 12
2021-09-25 @ Zimbru D 1-156.9 1402 1314 52.36% 18.32% 29.32%+0.48 -1.3 13
2021-09-25 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-736.3 1307 1724 6.27% 14.25% 79.48%-2.29 -10.4 14
2021-09-25 @ Dinamo-Auto W 7-036.3 1724 1307 79.48% 14.25% 6.27%+2.29 +10.4 19
2021-09-26 Balti W 3-036.7 1615 1334 71.86% 16.32% 11.82%+1.58 +9.0 25
2021-09-26 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-336.7 1334 1615 11.82% 16.32% 71.86%-1.58 -9.0 14
2021-09-26 Milsami Orhei L 0-328.7 1152 1507 8.52% 15.29% 76.19%-1.95 -6.5 0
2021-09-26 @ Floresti W 3-028.7 1507 1152 76.19% 15.29% 8.52%+1.95 +6.5 27
2021-10-01 Dinamo-Auto W 6-136.3 1624 1297 74.94% 15.62% 9.44%+1.83 +9.6 28
2021-10-01 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-636.3 1297 1624 9.44% 15.62% 74.94%-1.83 -9.6 14
2021-10-01 Floresti W 4-134.6 1401 1146 69.91% 16.68% 13.41%+1.43 +8.6 16
2021-10-01 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 1-434.6 1146 1401 13.41% 16.68% 69.91%-1.43 -8.6 0
2021-10-02 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-151.7 1514 1734 16.31% 17.20% 66.49%-1.21 -4.5 27
2021-10-02 @ Milsami Orhei W 1-051.7 1734 1514 66.49% 17.20% 16.31%+1.21 +4.5 22
2021-10-02 Zimbru W 2-147.5 1325 1315 42.67% 18.53% 38.79%+0.07 +9.2 17
2021-10-02 @ Balti L 1-247.5 1315 1325 38.79% 18.53% 42.67%-0.07 -9.2 12
2021-10-16 Balti L 1-338.2 1137 1334 18.21% 17.46% 64.32%-1.07 -8.2 0
2021-10-16 @ Floresti W 3-138.2 1334 1137 64.32% 17.46% 18.21%+1.07 +8.2 20
2021-10-16 Sfintul Gheorghe W 4-041.5 1739 1410 75.05% 15.59% 9.36%+1.84 +9.3 25
2021-10-16 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-441.5 1410 1739 9.36% 15.59% 75.05%-1.84 -9.3 16
2021-10-17 Milsami Orhei L 1-340.7 1287 1509 16.20% 17.18% 66.62%-1.21 -7.3 14
2021-10-17 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-140.7 1509 1287 66.62% 17.18% 16.20%+1.21 +7.3 30
2021-10-17 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-139.7 1306 1634 9.71% 15.71% 74.57%-1.80 -2.7 12
2021-10-17 @ Zimbru W 1-039.7 1634 1306 74.57% 15.71% 9.71%+1.80 +2.7 31
2021-10-22 Dinamo-Auto L 1-248.8 1303 1280 44.47% 18.52% 37.01%+0.14 -10.3 12
2021-10-22 @ Zimbru W 2-148.8 1280 1303 37.01% 18.52% 44.47%-0.14 +10.3 17
2021-10-23 Balti W 2-041.5 1748 1342 79.28% 14.32% 6.40%+2.27 +3.3 28
2021-10-23 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-241.5 1342 1748 6.40% 14.32% 79.28%-2.27 -3.3 20
2021-10-23 Petrocub Hincesti L 3-444.8 1129 1637 3.96% 12.63% 83.41%-2.80 -0.9 0
2021-10-23 @ Floresti W 4-344.8 1637 1129 83.41% 12.63% 3.96%+2.80 +0.9 34
2021-10-23 Sfintul Gheorghe D 2-266.9 1517 1400 56.51% 18.12% 25.37%+0.66 -1.3 31
2021-10-23 @ Milsami Orhei D 2-266.9 1400 1517 25.37% 18.12% 56.51%-0.66 +1.3 17
2021-10-30 Floresti W 3-031.8 1293 1128 61.79% 17.72% 20.49%+0.93 +15.3 15
2021-10-30 @ Zimbru L 0-331.8 1128 1293 20.49% 17.72% 61.79%-0.93 -15.3 0
2021-10-30 Milsami Orhei L 0-140.6 1339 1515 20.02% 17.67% 62.30%-0.96 -5.5 20
2021-10-30 @ Balti W 1-040.6 1515 1339 62.30% 17.67% 20.02%+0.96 +5.5 34
2021-10-31 Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-139.6 1290 1402 26.66% 18.19% 55.15%-0.60 -7.1 17
2021-10-31 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-039.6 1402 1290 55.15% 18.19% 26.66%+0.60 +7.1 20
2021-10-31 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-254.4 1638 1752 26.37% 18.18% 55.45%-0.62 -13.2 34
2021-10-31 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-054.4 1752 1638 55.45% 18.18% 26.37%+0.62 +13.2 31
2021-11-05 Balti W 1-041.4 1409 1334 51.48% 18.36% 30.16%+0.43 +7.9 23
2021-11-05 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-141.4 1334 1409 30.16% 18.36% 51.48%-0.43 -7.9 20
2021-11-05 Petrocub Hincesti L 1-355.8 1521 1624 27.57% 18.24% 54.19%-0.56 -11.9 34
2021-11-05 @ Milsami Orhei W 3-155.8 1624 1521 54.19% 18.24% 27.57%+0.56 +11.9 37
2021-11-06 Dinamo-Auto L 1-534.7 1113 1283 20.57% 17.73% 61.70%-0.93 -16.7 0
2021-11-06 @ Floresti W 5-134.7 1283 1113 61.70% 17.73% 20.57%+0.93 +16.7 20
2021-11-06 Zimbru W 6-036.9 1765 1308 81.63% 13.42% 4.95%+2.55 +7.0 34
2021-11-06 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-636.9 1308 1765 4.95% 13.42% 81.63%-2.55 -7.0 15
2021-11-20 Balti W 1-044.2 1300 1326 37.55% 18.52% 43.93%-0.13 +10.8 23
2021-11-20 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-144.2 1326 1300 43.93% 18.52% 37.55%+0.13 -10.8 20
2021-11-20 Milsami Orhei L 1-243.3 1301 1509 17.30% 17.34% 65.36%-1.14 -4.5 15
2021-11-20 @ Zimbru W 2-143.3 1509 1301 65.36% 17.34% 17.30%+1.14 +4.5 37
2021-11-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-335.9 1096 1772 1.66% 9.65% 88.70%-3.73 -0.7 0
2021-11-20 @ Floresti W 3-135.9 1772 1096 88.70% 9.65% 1.66%+3.73 +0.7 37
2021-11-21 Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-167.1 1636 1417 66.99% 17.13% 15.88%+1.24 -3.0 38
2021-11-21 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-167.1 1417 1636 15.88% 17.13% 66.99%-1.24 +3.0 24
2021-11-27 Petrocub Hincesti L 1-244.9 1315 1633 10.20% 15.87% 73.94%-1.75 -2.7 20
2021-11-27 @ Balti W 2-144.9 1633 1315 73.94% 15.87% 10.20%+1.75 +2.7 41
2021-11-27 Zimbru D 1-157.0 1420 1296 57.32% 18.07% 24.61%+0.70 -1.8 25
2021-11-27 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-157.0 1296 1420 24.61% 18.07% 57.32%-0.70 +1.8 16
2021-11-28 Dinamo-Auto W 7-037.5 1772 1311 81.84% 13.33% 4.83%+2.58 +7.9 40
2021-11-28 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-737.5 1311 1772 4.83% 13.33% 81.84%-2.58 -7.9 23
2021-11-28 Floresti W 5-025.7 1513 1095 79.87% 14.11% 6.02%+2.34 +7.3 40
2021-11-28 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-525.7 1095 1513 6.02% 14.11% 79.87%-2.34 -7.3 0
2021-12-02 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-070.1 1636 1780 23.10% 17.96% 58.95%-0.78 +2.3 42
2021-12-02 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 0-070.1 1780 1636 58.95% 17.96% 23.10%+0.78 -2.2 41
2021-12-11 Zimbru W 4-037.0 1778 1298 82.59% 13.01% 4.40%+2.68 +4.2 44
2021-12-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-437.0 1298 1778 4.40% 13.01% 82.59%-2.68 -4.2 16
2022-03-01 Milsami Orhei W 1-051.3 1782 1521 70.42% 16.59% 12.99%+1.47 +3.6 47
2022-03-01 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-151.3 1521 1782 12.99% 16.59% 70.42%-1.47 -3.6 40
2022-03-05 Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-045.3 1786 1418 77.32% 14.96% 7.72%+2.06 +4.0 50
2022-03-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-245.3 1418 1786 7.72% 14.96% 77.32%-2.06 -4.0 25
2022-03-12 Sfintul Gheorghe FL50.1 1088 1414 9.84% 15.76% 74.40%-1.79 +0.0 0
2022-03-12 @ Floresti FW50.1 1414 1088 74.40% 15.76% 9.84%+1.79 +0.0 28
2022-03-12 Balti W 2-148.4 1294 1312 38.62% 18.53% 42.85%-0.08 +10.0 19
2022-03-12 @ Zimbru L 1-248.4 1312 1294 42.85% 18.53% 38.62%+0.08 -10.0 20
2022-03-13 Milsami Orhei L 0-168.8 1790 1517 71.26% 16.43% 12.30%+1.53 -16.9 50
2022-03-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-068.8 1517 1790 12.30% 16.43% 71.26%-1.53 +16.9 43
2022-03-13 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-059.5 1303 1638 9.38% 15.60% 75.02%-1.84 +4.4 24
2022-03-13 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-059.5 1638 1303 75.02% 15.60% 9.38%+1.84 -4.3 43
2022-03-18 Floresti FW49.4 1302 1088 66.51% 17.20% 16.29%+1.20 +0.0 23
2022-03-18 @ Balti FL49.4 1088 1302 16.29% 17.20% 66.51%-1.20 +0.0 0
2022-03-18 Dinamo-Auto L 2-558.1 1534 1307 67.61% 17.04% 15.35%+1.27 -32.1 43
2022-03-18 @ Milsami Orhei W 5-258.1 1307 1534 15.35% 17.04% 67.61%-1.27 +32.1 27
2022-03-18 Zimbru W 5-138.2 1634 1304 75.09% 15.58% 9.32%+1.85 +7.7 46
2022-03-18 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-538.2 1304 1634 9.32% 15.58% 75.09%-1.85 -7.8 19
2022-03-19 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-343.2 1414 1773 8.33% 15.22% 76.45%-1.98 -6.3 28
2022-03-19 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-043.2 1773 1414 76.45% 15.22% 8.33%+1.98 +6.3 53
2022-04-02 Floresti FW53.2 1642 1088 85.30% 11.68% 3.02%+3.09 +0.0 49
2022-04-02 @ Petrocub Hincesti FL53.2 1088 1642 3.02% 11.68% 85.30%-3.09 +0.0 0
2022-04-03 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-338.4 1302 1780 4.62% 13.18% 82.21%-2.63 -3.4 23
2022-04-03 @ Balti W 3-038.4 1780 1302 82.21% 13.18% 4.62%+2.63 +3.4 56
2022-04-03 Zimbru D 0-052.1 1339 1296 47.23% 18.47% 34.30%+0.26 -0.8 28
2022-04-03 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-052.1 1296 1339 34.30% 18.47% 47.23%-0.26 +0.8 20
2022-04-04 Milsami Orhei W 2-050.2 1407 1502 28.64% 18.29% 53.06%-0.51 +24.0 31
2022-04-04 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-250.2 1502 1407 53.06% 18.29% 28.64%+0.51 -24.0 43
2022-04-08 Zimbru FL49.3 1088 1297 17.23% 17.33% 65.44%-1.14 +0.0 0
2022-04-08 @ Floresti FW49.3 1297 1088 65.44% 17.33% 17.23%+1.14 +0.0 23
2022-04-08 Dinamo-Auto W 4-035.9 1431 1338 53.73% 18.26% 28.01%+0.53 +26.5 34
2022-04-08 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-435.9 1338 1431 28.01% 18.26% 53.73%-0.53 -26.5 28
2022-04-08 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-055.7 1783 1642 59.34% 17.93% 22.73%+0.80 +6.1 59
2022-04-08 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-155.7 1642 1783 22.73% 17.93% 59.34%-0.80 -6.1 49
2022-04-09 Balti L 0-249.4 1478 1299 63.24% 17.58% 19.18%+1.01 -28.3 43
2022-04-09 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-049.4 1299 1478 19.18% 17.58% 63.24%-1.01 +28.3 26
2022-04-15 Floresti FW49.4 1312 1088 67.35% 17.08% 15.57%+1.26 +0.0 31
2022-04-15 @ Dinamo-Auto FL49.4 1088 1312 15.57% 17.08% 67.35%-1.26 +0.0 0
2022-04-16 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-169.5 1297 1789 4.28% 12.91% 82.81%-2.71 +4.6 24
2022-04-16 @ Zimbru D 1-169.5 1789 1297 82.81% 12.91% 4.28%+2.71 -4.6 60
2022-04-17 Milsami Orhei W 1-048.2 1635 1449 63.93% 17.51% 18.56%+1.05 +5.1 52
2022-04-17 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-148.2 1449 1635 18.56% 17.51% 63.93%-1.05 -5.1 43
2022-04-17 Sfintul Gheorghe D 0-054.3 1327 1458 24.53% 18.06% 57.41%-0.71 +2.1 27
2022-04-17 @ Balti D 0-054.3 1458 1327 57.41% 18.06% 24.53%+0.71 -2.1 35
2022-04-20 Floresti FW57.1 1784 1088 89.38% 9.19% 1.43%+3.88 +0.0 63
2022-04-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol FL57.1 1088 1784 1.43% 9.19% 89.38%-3.88 +0.0 0
2022-04-21 Zimbru W 3-034.9 1444 1302 59.49% 17.92% 22.59%+0.81 +16.8 46
2022-04-21 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-334.9 1302 1444 22.59% 17.92% 59.49%-0.81 -16.8 24
2022-04-22 Dinamo-Auto W 3-038.3 1329 1312 43.68% 18.53% 37.80%+0.11 +26.1 30
2022-04-22 @ Balti L 0-338.3 1312 1329 37.80% 18.53% 43.68%-0.11 -26.1 31
2022-04-22 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-443.5 1456 1641 19.27% 17.59% 63.14%-1.01 -18.9 35
2022-04-22 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 4-043.5 1641 1456 63.14% 17.59% 19.27%+1.01 +18.9 55
2022-04-29 Milsami Orhei FL50.5 1088 1461 7.79% 14.99% 77.21%-2.05 +0.0 0
2022-04-29 @ Floresti FW50.5 1461 1088 77.21% 14.99% 7.79%+2.05 +0.0 49
2022-04-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-337.8 1286 1784 4.14% 12.79% 83.07%-2.75 -3.0 31
2022-04-29 @ Dinamo-Auto W 3-037.8 1784 1286 83.07% 12.79% 4.14%+2.75 +3.0 66
2022-04-30 Balti W 3-252.4 1659 1355 73.44% 15.98% 10.58%+1.70 +2.6 58
2022-04-30 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 2-352.4 1355 1659 10.58% 15.98% 73.44%-1.70 -2.7 30
2022-04-30 Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-049.8 1285 1437 22.33% 17.89% 59.78%-0.83 +14.2 27
2022-04-30 @ Zimbru L 0-149.8 1437 1285 59.78% 17.89% 22.33%+0.83 -14.2 35
2022-05-07 Floresti FW50.2 1423 1088 75.38% 15.51% 9.11%+1.87 +0.0 38
2022-05-07 @ Sfintul Gheorghe FL50.2 1088 1423 9.11% 15.51% 75.38%-1.87 +0.0 0
2022-05-07 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-172.9 1461 1787 9.81% 15.74% 74.45%-1.79 +3.8 50
2022-05-07 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-172.9 1787 1461 74.45% 15.74% 9.81%+1.79 -3.8 67
2022-05-08 Dinamo-Auto W 5-033.2 1662 1283 77.93% 14.77% 7.30%+2.12 +8.9 61
2022-05-08 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-533.2 1283 1662 7.30% 14.77% 77.93%-2.12 -8.9 31
2022-05-08 Zimbru W 1-041.1 1353 1299 48.66% 18.44% 32.90%+0.31 +8.5 33
2022-05-08 @ Balti L 0-141.1 1299 1353 32.90% 18.44% 48.66%-0.31 -8.5 27
2022-05-14 Balti FL49.7 1088 1361 12.71% 16.53% 70.77%-1.50 +0.0 0
2022-05-14 @ Floresti FW49.7 1361 1088 70.77% 16.53% 12.71%+1.50 +0.0 36
2022-05-14 Milsami Orhei D 2-262.6 1274 1465 18.71% 17.53% 63.76%-1.04 +1.9 32
2022-05-14 @ Dinamo-Auto D 2-262.6 1465 1274 63.76% 17.53% 18.71%+1.04 -1.9 51
2022-05-14 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-335.4 1291 1671 7.51% 14.87% 77.62%-2.09 -5.7 27
2022-05-14 @ Zimbru W 3-035.4 1671 1291 77.62% 14.87% 7.51%+2.09 +5.7 64
2022-05-14 Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-045.4 1784 1423 76.92% 15.08% 8.00%+2.02 +4.2 70
2022-05-14 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-245.4 1423 1784 8.00% 15.08% 76.92%-2.02 -4.2 38

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-07-01 6.58% Balti 1316 1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1716 0
2 2022-03-13 12.30% Milsami Orhei 1517 1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1790 0
3 2022-03-18 15.35% Dinamo-Auto 1307 5 @ Milsami Orhei 1534 2
4 2022-04-09 19.18% Balti 1299 2 @ Milsami Orhei 1478 0
5 2022-04-30 22.33% @ Zimbru 1285 1 Sfintul Gheorghe 1437 0
6 2021-09-12 22.47% Dinamo-Auto 1269 1 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1413 0
7 2021-07-25 22.72% @ Milsami Orhei 1451 2 Petrocub Hincesti 1599 1
8 2022-04-04 28.64% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1407 2 Milsami Orhei 1502 0
9 2021-09-22 31.83% Dinamo-Auto 1290 4 @ Balti 1352 2
10 2021-07-02 32.24% @ Zimbru 1273 3 Dinamo-Auto 1339 0
11 2021-10-22 37.01% Dinamo-Auto 1280 2 @ Zimbru 1303 1
12 2021-11-20 37.55% @ Dinamo-Auto 1300 1 Balti 1326 0
13 2022-03-12 38.62% @ Zimbru 1294 2 Balti 1312 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-07-02 32.71 @ Zimbru 3 1273 32.24% Dinamo-Auto 0 1339 49.34% 18.42%
2 2022-03-18 32.07 Dinamo-Auto 5 1307 15.35% @ Milsami Orhei 2 1534 67.61% 17.04%
3 2021-07-17 29.73 @ Zimbru 4 1306 49.54% Floresti 0 1246 32.04% 18.42%
4 2022-04-09 28.35 Balti 2 1299 19.18% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1478 63.24% 17.58%
5 2022-04-08 26.48 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 4 1431 53.73% Dinamo-Auto 0 1338 28.01% 18.26%
6 2022-04-22 26.14 @ Balti 3 1329 43.68% Dinamo-Auto 0 1312 37.80% 18.53%
7 2021-08-01 24.80 @ Petrocub Hincesti 5 1586 61.66% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1422 20.61% 17.73%
8 2022-04-04 24.04 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1407 28.64% Milsami Orhei 0 1502 53.06% 18.29%
9 2021-07-31 22.75 Balti 4 1328 42.20% @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1315 39.27% 18.54%
10 2022-04-22 18.91 Petrocub Hincesti 4 1641 63.14% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1456 19.27% 17.59%
11 2021-07-01 18.48 Balti 1 1316 6.58% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1716 79.00% 14.42%
12 2021-09-22 17.57 Dinamo-Auto 4 1290 31.83% @ Balti 2 1352 49.76% 18.41%
13 2022-03-13 16.86 Milsami Orhei 1 1517 12.30% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1790 71.26% 16.43%
14 2022-04-21 16.75 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1444 59.49% Zimbru 0 1302 22.59% 17.92%
15 2021-11-06 16.74 Dinamo-Auto 5 1283 61.70% @ Floresti 1 1113 20.57% 17.73%
16 2021-10-30 15.33 @ Zimbru 3 1293 61.79% Floresti 0 1128 20.49% 17.72%
17 2021-09-12 14.38 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1711 52.71% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1626 28.98% 18.31%
18 2021-08-15 14.29 Sfintul Gheorghe 5 1406 65.29% @ Floresti 1 1198 17.36% 17.35%
19 2022-04-30 14.25 @ Zimbru 1 1285 22.33% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1437 59.78% 17.89%
20 2021-09-12 14.21 Dinamo-Auto 1 1269 22.47% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1413 59.63% 17.91%
21 2021-07-25 13.34 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1451 22.72% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1599 59.36% 17.93%
22 2021-10-31 13.24 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1752 55.45% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1638 26.37% 18.18%
23 2021-08-01 12.52 Milsami Orhei 2 1464 57.16% @ Zimbru 0 1336 24.76% 18.08%
24 2021-11-05 11.92 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1624 54.19% @ Milsami Orhei 1 1521 27.57% 18.24%
25 2021-08-21 10.84 @ Milsami Orhei 4 1485 65.73% Dinamo-Auto 1 1279 16.98% 17.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-05-07 72.9 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1461 9.81% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1787 74.45% 15.74%
2 2021-12-02 70.1 @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1636 23.10% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1780 58.95% 17.96%
3 2022-04-16 69.5 @ Zimbru 1 1297 4.28% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1789 82.81% 12.91%
4 2021-09-17 68.8 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1612 55.97% Milsami Orhei 1 1500 25.88% 18.15%
5 2022-03-13 68.8 Milsami Orhei 1 1517 12.30% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1790 71.26% 16.43%
6 2021-09-19 67.5 @ Zimbru 1 1314 6.44% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1726 79.22% 14.34%
7 2021-11-21 67.1 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1636 66.99% Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1417 15.88% 17.13%
8 2021-10-23 66.9 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1517 56.51% Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1400 25.37% 18.12%
9 2021-08-26 64.7 @ Dinamo-Auto 3 1269 36.23% Zimbru 3 1304 45.26% 18.51%
10 2021-07-25 64.1 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1451 22.72% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1599 59.36% 17.93%
11 2021-07-01 63.5 Balti 1 1316 6.58% @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1716 79.00% 14.42%
12 2022-05-14 62.6 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1274 18.71% Milsami Orhei 2 1465 63.76% 17.53%
13 2021-07-18 62.3 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1306 25.77% Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1425 56.09% 18.14%
14 2021-07-02 60.2 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1444 43.94% Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1425 37.54% 18.52%
15 2021-09-11 60.1 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1503 59.68% Balti 1 1358 22.41% 17.90%
16 2022-03-13 59.5 @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1303 9.38% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1638 75.02% 15.60%
17 2021-08-25 58.7 Milsami Orhei 4 1496 50.68% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 3 1420 30.94% 18.38%
18 2022-03-18 58.1 Dinamo-Auto 5 1307 15.35% @ Milsami Orhei 2 1534 67.61% 17.04%
19 2021-07-25 57.5 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1424 54.22% Balti 1 1327 27.53% 18.24%
20 2021-11-27 57.0 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1420 57.32% Zimbru 1 1296 24.61% 18.07%
21 2021-09-25 56.9 @ Zimbru 1 1314 29.32% Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1402 52.36% 18.32%
22 2021-11-05 55.8 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1624 54.19% @ Milsami Orhei 1 1521 27.57% 18.24%
23 2022-04-08 55.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1783 59.34% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1642 22.73% 17.93%
24 2021-09-12 54.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1711 52.71% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1626 28.98% 18.31%
25 2021-10-31 54.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1752 55.45% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1638 26.37% 18.18%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-11-28 25.7 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1513 79.87% Floresti 0 1095 6.02% 14.11%
2 2021-09-26 28.7 Milsami Orhei 3 1507 76.19% @ Floresti 0 1152 8.52% 15.29%
3 2021-09-22 28.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1721 85.73% Floresti 0 1155 2.83% 11.45%
4 2021-08-25 31.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1624 81.28% Floresti 0 1175 5.15% 13.57%
5 2021-10-30 31.8 @ Zimbru 3 1293 61.79% Floresti 0 1128 20.49% 17.72%
6 2022-05-08 33.2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 5 1662 77.93% Dinamo-Auto 0 1283 7.30% 14.77%
7 2021-08-15 34.4 Sfintul Gheorghe 5 1406 65.29% @ Floresti 1 1198 17.36% 17.35%
8 2021-10-01 34.6 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 4 1401 69.91% Floresti 1 1146 13.41% 16.68%
9 2021-11-06 34.7 Dinamo-Auto 5 1283 61.70% @ Floresti 1 1113 20.57% 17.73%
10 2021-07-17 34.8 @ Zimbru 4 1306 49.54% Floresti 0 1246 32.04% 18.42%
11 2022-04-21 34.9 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1444 59.49% Zimbru 0 1302 22.59% 17.92%
12 2021-08-08 35.3 @ Milsami Orhei 4 1477 71.07% Floresti 1 1206 12.46% 16.47%
13 2022-05-14 35.4 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1671 77.62% @ Zimbru 0 1291 7.51% 14.87%
14 2021-11-20 35.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1772 88.70% @ Floresti 1 1096 1.66% 9.65%
15 2022-04-08 35.9 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 4 1431 53.73% Dinamo-Auto 0 1338 28.01% 18.26%
16 2021-08-14 36.0 Petrocub Hincesti 2 1616 74.78% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1284 9.56% 15.66%
17 2021-07-01 36.3 Petrocub Hincesti 1 1597 75.81% @ Floresti 0 1248 8.79% 15.39%
18 2021-09-25 36.3 Sheriff Tiraspol 7 1724 79.48% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1307 6.27% 14.25%
19 2021-10-01 36.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 6 1624 74.94% Dinamo-Auto 1 1297 9.44% 15.62%
20 2021-08-07 36.7 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 7 1699 79.34% Dinamo-Auto 1 1292 6.36% 14.30%
21 2021-09-26 36.7 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1615 71.86% Balti 0 1334 11.82% 16.32%
22 2021-11-06 36.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 6 1765 81.63% Zimbru 0 1308 4.95% 13.42%
23 2021-12-11 37.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1778 82.59% Zimbru 0 1298 4.40% 13.01%
24 2021-09-18 37.5 @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1283 57.11% Floresti 0 1162 24.81% 18.08%
25 2021-11-28 37.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 7 1772 81.84% Dinamo-Auto 0 1311 4.83% 13.33%