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2022-23 Super Liga Season

86 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

57 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dacia Buiucani

3.40 points above expected

16 points · 12.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dinamo-Auto

5.85 points below expected

0 points · 5.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 14 10 3 1 33 24 6 +18 32.34 +0.66
2 Petrocub Hincesti 14 8 3 3 27 20 11 +9 26.77 +0.23
3 Zimbru 14 4 7 3 19 17 17 0 14.01 +4.99
4 Sfintul Gheorghe 14 6 1 7 19 18 22 -4 18.74 +0.26
5 Balti 14 5 2 7 17 13 13 0 17.20 -0.20
6 Milsami Orhei 14 4 5 5 17 12 14 -2 20.94 -3.94
7 Dacia Buiucani 14 4 4 6 16 14 14 0 12.60 +3.40
8 Dinamo-Auto* 14 1 3 10 0 5 26 -21 5.85 -5.85
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 17 6 1 57 39 9 +30 22.14 +34.86
2 Petrocub Hincesti 24 14 6 4 48 36 17 +19 18.12 +29.88
3 Zimbru 24 7 10 7 31 27 26 +1 8.94 +22.06
4 Milsami Orhei 24 7 7 10 28 22 30 -8 12.22 +15.78
5 Sfintul Gheorghe 24 7 5 12 26 22 35 -13 10.50 +15.50
6 Balti 24 5 7 12 22 18 26 -8 10.60 +11.40

* Point deductions: Dinamo-Auto (-6 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dacia Buiucani 16 12.60 +3.40
2 Zimbru 31 27.94 +3.06
3 Petrocub Hincesti 48 45.12 +2.88
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 57 55.14 +1.86
5 Milsami Orhei 28 29.22 -1.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo-Auto 0 5.85 -5.85
2 Balti 22 27.60 -5.60
3 Sfintul Gheorghe 26 29.50 -3.50
4 Milsami Orhei 28 29.22 -1.22
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 57 55.14 +1.86

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 3 Oct 1 – Oct 16 1 in 77
2 Petrocub Hincesti 4 Oct 23 – Mar 11 1 in 19
3 Milsami Orhei 3 Apr 30 – May 13 1 in 17
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 7 Oct 30 – Apr 15 1 in 13
5 Sfintul Gheorghe 3 Oct 8 – Oct 23 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Balti 5 Sep 12 – Oct 16 1 in 108
2 Dinamo-Auto 6 Oct 1 – Nov 9 1 in 44
3 Milsami Orhei 3 Nov 9 – Mar 18 1 in 12
4 Petrocub Hincesti 1 Jul 31 – Jul 31 1 in 6
5 Zimbru 2 Aug 27 – Sep 4 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 10 Sep 11 – Mar 18 1 in 1,230
2 Dacia Buiucani 2 Sep 16 – Oct 2 1 in 6
3 Petrocub Hincesti 8 Apr 2 – May 20 1 in 6
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 12 Oct 30 – May 20 1 in 4
5 Milsami Orhei 4 Jul 31 – Aug 21 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 11 Oct 8 – Apr 22 1 in 70
2 Sfintul Gheorghe 8 Oct 28 – Apr 22 1 in 29
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 Apr 22 – May 6 1 in 27
4 Balti 11 Nov 9 – May 20 1 in 24
5 Zimbru 8 Jul 30 – Sep 18 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1747 57 +7 9 11.1 -2.1
Petrocub Hincesti 1639 48 +32 13 9.2 +3.8
Zimbru 1411 31 +7 5 5.2 -0.2
Milsami Orhei 1440 28 +16 9 5.7 +3.3
Sfintul Gheorghe 1384 26 -32 3 5.0 -2.0
Balti 1381 22 -30 2 5.0 -3.0
Dacia Buiucani 1347 16 +26 5 4.7 +0.3
Dinamo-Auto 1257 6 -53 0 3.9 -3.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL DB DIN MO PH SG ST ZIM
Balti —
0-1-1
3.49
2-0-0
3.42
0-2-2
4.65
0-1-3
2.89
2-1-1
5.03
0-1-3
1.89
1-1-2
5.84
Dacia Buiucani
1-1-0
1.95
 —
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
1.64
0-1-1
1.06
1-0-1
1.77
0-0-2
0.71
1-1-0
2.44
Dinamo-Auto
0-0-2
2.01
1-0-1
2.49
 —
0-2-0
1.66
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-2
0.71
0-1-1
2.58
Milsami Orhei
2-2-0
6.19
1-1-0
3.83
0-2-0
3.81
 —
1-0-3
3.35
1-1-2
5.73
0-0-4
2.20
2-1-1
6.63
Petrocub Hincesti
3-1-0
8.13
1-1-0
4.53
2-0-0
4.58
3-0-1
7.59
 —
2-1-1
8.11
1-2-1
3.57
2-1-1
8.56
Sfintul Gheorghe
1-1-2
5.79
1-0-1
3.69
2-0-0
3.61
2-1-1
5.09
1-1-2
2.91
 —
0-0-4
2.06
0-2-2
6.36
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-1-0
9.38
2-0-0
5.00
2-0-0
5.00
4-0-0
8.98
1-2-1
7.34
4-0-0
9.17
 —
1-3-0
9.67
Zimbru
2-1-1
4.99
0-1-1
2.97
1-1-0
2.83
1-1-2
4.25
1-1-2
2.54
2-2-0
4.48
0-3-1
1.67
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.99 +15.8
Allowed 0.24 -10.0
Differential 0.83 +9.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.63%11.63%8.72%4.65%1.74%0.58%38.95%
111.63%12.79%5.81%0.58%0.58%—31.40%
28.72%5.81%2.33%1.16%——18.02%
34.65%0.58%1.16%1.16%0.58%—8.14%
41.74%0.58%—0.58%——2.91%
5+0.58%—————0.58%
Total38.95%31.40%18.02%8.14%2.91%0.58%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.06 +0.00
SD 1.12 1.12 1.71
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 86

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%29.17%8.33%8.33%——54.17%
18.33%16.67%4.17%———29.17%
2—4.17%4.17%———8.33%
34.17%—————4.17%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+———————
Total25.00%50.00%16.67%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.08 -0.33
SD 1.07 0.88 1.61
CV 1.43 0.81 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%14.29%21.43%———57.14%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
3———————
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%21.43%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.00 +0.00
SD 1.62 1.04 1.88
CV 1.62 1.04 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%71.43%
1—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%21.43%7.14%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.36 1.86 -1.50
SD 0.63 1.61 1.83
CV 1.77 0.87 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%12.50%4.17%4.17%—29.17%
120.83%20.83%12.50%———54.17%
24.17%—4.17%4.17%——12.50%
34.17%—————4.17%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%25.00%29.17%8.33%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.25 -0.33
SD 0.78 1.15 1.58
CV 0.85 0.92 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%8.33%4.17%———25.00%
116.67%8.33%4.17%———29.17%
24.17%16.67%4.17%———25.00%
38.33%—4.17%———12.50%
44.17%4.17%————8.33%
5+———————
Total45.83%37.50%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.71 +0.79
SD 1.25 0.75 1.44
CV 0.83 1.06 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%12.50%12.50%4.17%—45.83%
18.33%8.33%8.33%4.17%——29.17%
212.50%—————12.50%
34.17%—4.17%4.17%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%16.67%25.00%20.83%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.46 -0.54
SD 1.06 1.28 1.86
CV 1.16 0.88 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%————12.50%
116.67%16.67%————33.33%
225.00%12.50%————37.50%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+———————
Total62.50%37.50%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 0.38 +1.25
SD 1.01 0.49 1.19
CV 0.62 1.32 —
Max 4 1 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.83%8.33%4.17%4.17%——37.50%
18.33%12.50%4.17%———25.00%
28.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
34.17%——4.17%4.17%—12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total41.67%29.17%12.50%12.50%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.08 +0.04
SD 1.08 1.21 1.30
CV 0.96 1.12 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1747 57 32.34 +24.66 59.0% 22 25 30 33 35 38 40
Petrocub Hincesti 1639 48 26.77 +21.23 57.0% 14 19 24 27 31 34 35
Milsami Orhei 1440 28 20.94 +7.06 21.0% 11 13 19 21 23 30 33
Zimbru 1411 31 14.01 +16.99 90.0% 6 7 11 14 17 22 27
Sfintul Gheorghe 1384 26 18.74 +7.26 56.0% 10 12 15 18 22 26 28
Balti 1381 22 17.20 +4.80 52.0% 3 11 14 17 20 24 29
Dacia Buiucani 1347 16 12.60 +3.40 83.0% 4 6 10 12 15 19 22
Dinamo-Auto 1257 0 5.85 -5.85 10.0% -2 -1 3 6 8 12 18

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+4.65%
No Edge
38.37%27.91%33.72%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 16.17 Elo pts.
244 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.01 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.5
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
81%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.41/gm
Comfortable
00.270.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.4 * Some Luck: 3.4 to 5.09 * Lucky: 5.09 to 6.79 * Wild Swing: 6.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.61 * Close: 0.61 to 0.92 * Off: 0.92 to 1.22 * Way Off: 1.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.29 points
As Expected
04.2511
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.762
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
90.00%
Zimbru
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
10.00%
Dinamo-Auto
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.32
Lopsided
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 149.53
2.93
Strong Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
68%
Even
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
94%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.62
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.83
Strong Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.36 * Well Above Noise: 0.36 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.21
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.112
Well Within Noise
00.1790.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol81.00%17.00%2.00%—————
Petrocub Hincesti14.00%59.00%20.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%——
Zimbru—4.00%5.00%12.00%18.00%25.00%28.00%8.00%
Milsami Orhei3.00%11.00%40.00%27.00%8.00%8.00%3.00%—
Sfintul Gheorghe—6.00%20.00%26.00%26.00%17.00%4.00%1.00%
Balti2.00%3.00%11.00%23.00%31.00%17.00%11.00%2.00%
Dacia Buiucani——2.00%8.00%14.00%29.00%38.00%9.00%
Dinamo-Auto————1.00%3.00%16.00%80.00%
Team123456
Sheriff Tiraspol72.41%20.85%4.85%1.39%0.48%0.02%
Petrocub Hincesti22.00%49.57%17.73%6.95%2.86%0.89%
Zimbru0.59%3.78%13.24%20.81%26.80%34.78%
Milsami Orhei2.60%11.97%26.85%24.36%19.56%14.66%
Sfintul Gheorghe1.16%7.28%19.82%23.22%24.63%23.89%
Balti1.24%6.55%17.51%23.27%25.67%25.76%
Dacia Buiucani——————
Dinamo-Auto——————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 87.00% 13.00%
Dacia Buiucani 53.00% 47.00%
Dinamo-Auto 4.00% 96.00%
Milsami Orhei 97.00% 3.00%
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sfintul Gheorghe 95.00% 5.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Zimbru 64.00% 36.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 100% —
Dacia Buiucani — 100%
Dinamo-Auto — 100%
Milsami Orhei 100% —
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sfintul Gheorghe 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Zimbru 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2022-07-30 Balti D 0-049.9 1310 1399 26.34% 28.87% 44.79%-0.30 +0.9 1
2022-07-30 @ Dacia Buiucani D 0-049.9 1399 1310 44.79% 28.87% 26.34%+0.30 -0.9 1
2022-07-30 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-168.7 1350 1701 9.03% 17.45% 73.52%-1.37 +3.0 1
2022-07-30 @ Zimbru D 1-168.7 1701 1350 73.52% 17.45% 9.03%+1.37 -3.0 1
2022-07-31 Dinamo-Auto D 0-052.3 1466 1331 55.66% 26.11% 18.22%+0.62 -1.9 1
2022-07-31 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-052.3 1331 1466 18.22% 26.11% 55.66%-0.62 +1.9 1
2022-07-31 Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-257.1 1613 1436 60.31% 24.29% 15.40%+0.79 -22.5 0
2022-07-31 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-057.1 1436 1613 15.40% 24.29% 60.31%-0.79 +22.5 3
2022-08-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-352.4 1459 1698 14.08% 23.21% 62.71%-0.91 -5.7 3
2022-08-06 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-152.4 1698 1459 62.71% 23.21% 14.08%+0.91 +5.7 4
2022-08-06 Zimbru D 0-049.4 1333 1353 35.22% 29.60% 35.18%-0.02 +0.0 2
2022-08-06 @ Dinamo-Auto D 0-049.4 1353 1333 35.18% 29.60% 35.22%+0.02 +0.0 2
2022-08-07 Dacia Buiucani W 1-038.5 1590 1311 70.75% 19.04% 10.21%+1.21 +2.4 3
2022-08-07 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-138.5 1311 1590 10.21% 19.04% 70.75%-1.21 -2.4 1
2022-08-07 Milsami Orhei D 1-158.5 1398 1464 29.04% 29.27% 41.69%-0.21 +0.5 2
2022-08-07 @ Balti D 1-158.5 1464 1398 41.69% 29.27% 29.04%+0.21 -0.5 2
2022-08-13 Balti L 0-339.2 1353 1399 31.76% 29.50% 38.74%-0.12 -20.1 2
2022-08-13 @ Zimbru W 3-039.2 1399 1353 38.74% 29.50% 31.76%+0.12 +20.1 5
2022-08-13 Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-046.6 1308 1453 20.78% 27.31% 51.92%-0.53 +20.0 4
2022-08-13 @ Dacia Buiucani L 0-246.6 1453 1308 51.92% 27.31% 20.78%+0.53 -20.0 3
2022-08-14 Dinamo-Auto W 2-037.8 1704 1333 78.55% 14.43% 7.01%+1.58 +2.8 7
2022-08-14 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-237.8 1333 1704 7.01% 14.43% 78.55%-1.58 -2.8 2
2022-08-14 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-058.7 1464 1593 22.26% 27.84% 49.90%-0.46 +10.3 5
2022-08-14 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-158.7 1593 1464 49.90% 27.84% 22.26%+0.46 -10.3 3
2022-08-20 Dinamo-Auto W 3-035.5 1433 1330 51.79% 27.34% 20.87%+0.49 +14.3 6
2022-08-20 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-335.5 1330 1433 20.87% 27.34% 51.79%-0.49 -14.3 2
2022-08-20 Zimbru D 2-268.7 1582 1333 67.84% 20.64% 11.53%+1.09 -2.0 4
2022-08-20 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 2-268.7 1333 1582 11.53% 20.64% 67.84%-1.09 +2.0 3
2022-08-21 Milsami Orhei L 0-238.0 1328 1474 20.68% 27.27% 52.05%-0.53 -9.7 4
2022-08-21 @ Dacia Buiucani W 2-038.0 1474 1328 52.05% 27.27% 20.68%+0.53 +9.7 8
2022-08-21 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-342.2 1419 1707 11.61% 20.73% 67.67%-1.11 -7.6 5
2022-08-21 @ Balti W 3-042.2 1707 1419 67.67% 20.73% 11.61%+1.11 +7.6 10
2022-08-27 Balti L 0-141.9 1316 1411 25.69% 28.74% 45.57%-0.32 -6.2 2
2022-08-27 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-041.9 1411 1316 45.57% 28.74% 25.69%+0.32 +6.2 8
2022-08-27 Dacia Buiucani L 3-458.5 1335 1318 40.47% 29.38% 30.15%+0.13 -7.6 3
2022-08-27 @ Zimbru W 4-358.5 1318 1335 30.15% 29.38% 40.47%-0.13 +7.6 7
2022-08-28 Sfintul Gheorghe L 2-363.4 1484 1447 43.21% 29.09% 27.70%+0.22 -8.2 8
2022-08-28 @ Milsami Orhei W 3-263.4 1447 1484 27.70% 29.09% 43.21%-0.22 +8.2 9
2022-08-29 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-172.2 1715 1580 55.54% 26.16% 18.30%+0.62 -1.7 11
2022-08-29 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-172.2 1580 1715 18.30% 26.16% 55.54%-0.62 +1.7 5
2022-09-03 Dinamo-Auto W 4-033.0 1582 1310 70.07% 19.42% 10.51%+1.18 +8.8 8
2022-09-03 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-433.0 1310 1582 10.51% 19.42% 70.07%-1.18 -8.8 2
2022-09-03 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-238.4 1326 1713 7.80% 15.66% 76.54%-1.52 -3.2 7
2022-09-03 @ Dacia Buiucani W 2-038.4 1713 1326 76.54% 15.66% 7.80%+1.52 +3.2 14
2022-09-04 Balti L 1-256.9 1456 1417 43.44% 29.06% 27.50%+0.22 -8.7 9
2022-09-04 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-156.9 1417 1456 27.50% 29.06% 43.44%-0.22 +8.7 11
2022-09-04 Zimbru W 1-039.8 1476 1327 57.15% 25.57% 17.28%+0.67 +4.3 11
2022-09-04 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-139.8 1327 1476 17.28% 25.57% 57.15%-0.67 -4.3 3
2022-09-10 Dacia Buiucani W 2-040.6 1301 1323 34.97% 29.59% 35.43%-0.02 +15.0 5
2022-09-10 @ Dinamo-Auto L 0-240.6 1323 1301 35.43% 29.59% 34.97%+0.02 -15.0 7
2022-09-11 Milsami Orhei W 2-046.2 1716 1480 66.55% 21.31% 12.14%+1.03 +5.5 17
2022-09-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-246.2 1480 1716 12.14% 21.31% 66.55%-1.03 -5.5 11
2022-09-11 Sfintul Gheorghe D 3-365.8 1323 1447 22.74% 28.00% 49.27%-0.44 +0.7 4
2022-09-11 @ Zimbru D 3-365.8 1447 1323 49.27% 28.00% 22.74%+0.44 -0.7 10
2022-09-12 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-147.6 1426 1591 19.10% 26.57% 54.33%-0.61 -4.8 11
2022-09-12 @ Balti W 1-047.6 1591 1426 54.33% 26.57% 19.10%+0.61 +4.8 11
2022-09-16 Dacia Buiucani L 0-149.6 1421 1308 53.04% 26.97% 19.98%+0.53 -10.8 11
2022-09-16 @ Balti W 1-049.6 1308 1421 19.98% 26.97% 53.04%-0.53 +10.8 10
2022-09-16 Milsami Orhei D 1-157.5 1316 1474 19.60% 26.80% 53.59%-0.58 +1.5 6
2022-09-16 @ Dinamo-Auto D 1-157.5 1474 1316 53.59% 26.80% 19.60%+0.58 -1.5 12
2022-09-17 Petrocub Hincesti L 1-255.3 1446 1596 20.38% 27.14% 52.48%-0.55 -4.8 10
2022-09-17 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-155.3 1596 1446 52.48% 27.14% 20.38%+0.55 +4.8 14
2022-09-18 Zimbru D 0-064.3 1722 1324 80.54% 13.21% 6.26%+1.69 -3.8 18
2022-09-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-064.3 1324 1722 6.26% 13.21% 80.54%-1.69 +3.8 5
2022-10-01 Balti W 1-045.1 1473 1410 46.67% 28.54% 24.78%+0.32 +6.0 15
2022-10-01 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-145.1 1410 1473 24.78% 28.54% 46.67%-0.32 -6.0 11
2022-10-01 Dinamo-Auto W 2-149.0 1328 1317 39.59% 29.45% 30.96%+0.11 +6.8 8
2022-10-01 @ Zimbru L 1-249.0 1317 1328 30.96% 29.45% 39.59%-0.11 -6.8 6
2022-10-02 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-057.3 1319 1600 11.91% 21.07% 67.02%-1.09 +2.9 11
2022-10-02 @ Dacia Buiucani D 0-057.3 1600 1319 67.02% 21.07% 11.91%+1.09 -2.9 15
2022-10-02 Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-042.4 1718 1441 70.46% 19.20% 10.34%+1.20 +6.6 21
2022-10-02 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-342.4 1441 1718 10.34% 19.20% 70.46%-1.20 -6.6 10
2022-10-08 Dacia Buiucani W 1-040.1 1435 1322 53.02% 26.98% 20.00%+0.53 +5.0 13
2022-10-08 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-140.1 1322 1435 20.00% 26.98% 53.02%-0.53 -5.0 11
2022-10-08 Milsami Orhei W 2-156.2 1598 1479 53.68% 26.78% 19.54%+0.55 +4.6 18
2022-10-08 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-256.2 1479 1598 19.54% 26.78% 53.68%-0.55 -4.6 15
2022-10-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-140.9 1310 1724 6.96% 14.35% 78.69%-1.63 -1.5 6
2022-10-09 @ Dinamo-Auto W 1-040.9 1724 1310 78.69% 14.35% 6.96%+1.63 +1.5 24
2022-10-09 Zimbru L 0-245.2 1404 1334 47.61% 28.36% 24.03%+0.35 -18.7 11
2022-10-09 @ Balti W 2-045.2 1334 1404 24.03% 28.36% 47.61%-0.35 +18.7 11
2022-10-15 Dacia Buiucani D 1-158.0 1474 1317 58.24% 25.15% 16.61%+0.71 -1.9 16
2022-10-15 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-158.0 1317 1474 16.61% 25.15% 58.24%-0.71 +1.9 12
2022-10-15 Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-237.5 1309 1440 22.07% 27.78% 50.15%-0.47 -10.3 6
2022-10-15 @ Dinamo-Auto W 2-037.5 1440 1309 50.15% 27.78% 22.07%+0.47 +10.3 16
2022-10-16 Balti W 2-150.7 1726 1386 76.08% 15.93% 7.98%+1.46 +1.7 27
2022-10-16 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-250.7 1386 1726 7.98% 15.93% 76.08%-1.46 -1.7 11
2022-10-16 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-163.8 1353 1602 13.57% 22.74% 63.69%-0.95 +11.8 14
2022-10-16 @ Zimbru L 1-263.8 1602 1353 63.69% 22.74% 13.57%+0.95 -11.7 18
2022-10-22 Dinamo-Auto W 1-040.1 1384 1299 49.59% 27.92% 22.50%+0.42 +5.6 14
2022-10-22 @ Balti L 0-140.1 1299 1384 22.50% 27.92% 49.59%-0.42 -5.6 6
2022-10-22 Zimbru D 0-049.4 1318 1365 31.61% 29.49% 38.90%-0.12 +0.3 13
2022-10-22 @ Dacia Buiucani D 0-049.4 1365 1318 38.90% 29.49% 31.61%+0.12 -0.3 15
2022-10-23 Milsami Orhei W 1-049.9 1450 1472 34.92% 29.59% 35.49%-0.03 +7.9 19
2022-10-23 @ Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-149.9 1472 1450 35.49% 29.59% 34.92%+0.03 -8.0 16
2022-10-23 Sheriff Tiraspol W 1-065.1 1590 1728 21.47% 27.57% 50.96%-0.50 +10.5 21
2022-10-23 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-165.1 1728 1590 50.96% 27.57% 21.47%+0.50 -10.5 27
2022-10-27 Milsami Orhei D 1-157.8 1365 1464 25.17% 28.63% 46.20%-0.34 +0.9 16
2022-10-27 @ Zimbru D 1-157.8 1464 1365 46.20% 28.63% 25.17%+0.34 -0.9 17
2022-10-27 Petrocub Hincesti L 1-438.2 1293 1601 10.75% 19.71% 69.54%-1.19 -5.9 6
2022-10-27 @ Dinamo-Auto W 4-138.2 1601 1293 69.54% 19.71% 10.75%+1.19 +5.9 24
2022-10-28 Sfintul Gheorghe W 4-044.1 1390 1458 28.80% 29.24% 41.96%-0.21 +32.1 17
2022-10-28 @ Balti L 0-444.1 1458 1390 41.96% 29.24% 28.80%+0.21 -32.1 19
2022-10-30 Dacia Buiucani W 2-146.7 1717 1319 80.58% 13.18% 6.24%+1.70 +1.2 30
2022-10-30 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-246.7 1319 1717 6.24% 13.18% 80.58%-1.70 -1.2 13
2022-11-09 Balti W 1-045.9 1607 1422 61.25% 23.88% 14.88%+0.82 +3.7 27
2022-11-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-145.9 1422 1607 14.88% 23.88% 61.25%-0.82 -3.7 17
2022-11-09 Dinamo-Auto W 5-036.7 1318 1287 42.35% 29.20% 28.45%+0.19 +29.8 16
2022-11-09 @ Dacia Buiucani L 0-536.7 1287 1318 28.45% 29.20% 42.35%-0.19 -29.8 6
2022-11-09 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-246.6 1464 1718 13.26% 22.45% 64.29%-0.98 -6.1 17
2022-11-09 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-046.6 1718 1464 64.29% 22.45% 13.26%+0.98 +6.1 33
2022-11-09 Zimbru L 0-149.2 1426 1365 46.37% 28.60% 25.03%+0.31 -9.7 19
2022-11-09 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-049.2 1365 1426 25.03% 28.60% 46.37%-0.31 +9.7 19

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-03-11 Milsami Orhei W 2-154.7 1610 1457 57.69% 25.36% 16.95%+0.69 +4.0 3
2023-03-11 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-254.7 1457 1610 16.95% 25.36% 57.69%-0.69 -4.0 0
2023-03-11 Sfintul Gheorghe D 0-051.1 1375 1416 32.35% 29.53% 38.12%-0.10 +0.3 1
2023-03-11 @ Zimbru D 0-051.1 1416 1375 38.12% 29.53% 32.35%+0.10 -0.3 1
2023-03-13 Balti W 1-046.2 1724 1418 73.19% 17.64% 9.16%+1.32 +2.1 3
2023-03-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-146.2 1418 1724 9.16% 17.64% 73.19%-1.32 -2.1 0
2023-03-17 Balti D 1-157.6 1416 1416 38.12% 29.53% 32.35%+0.07 -0.2 2
2023-03-17 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-157.6 1416 1416 32.35% 29.53% 38.12%-0.07 +0.2 1
2023-03-18 Zimbru L 0-345.5 1453 1375 48.66% 28.13% 23.20%+0.39 -27.6 0
2023-03-18 @ Milsami Orhei W 3-045.5 1375 1453 23.20% 28.13% 48.66%-0.39 +27.6 4
2023-03-19 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-055.9 1727 1614 52.91% 27.01% 20.07%+0.53 +5.0 6
2023-03-19 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-155.9 1614 1727 20.07% 27.01% 52.91%-0.53 -5.0 3
2023-04-01 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-243.2 1403 1732 9.89% 18.62% 71.49%-1.28 -4.3 4
2023-04-01 @ Zimbru W 2-043.2 1732 1403 71.49% 18.62% 9.89%+1.28 +4.3 9
2023-04-02 Balti D 0-060.5 1609 1416 62.13% 23.48% 14.39%+0.86 -2.5 4
2023-04-02 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 0-060.5 1416 1609 14.39% 23.48% 62.13%-0.86 +2.5 2
2023-04-02 Milsami Orhei D 1-157.9 1416 1426 36.67% 29.58% 33.75%+0.02 -0.1 3
2023-04-02 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 1-157.9 1426 1416 33.75% 29.58% 36.67%-0.02 +0.1 1
2023-04-09 Milsami Orhei D 2-263.9 1419 1426 37.08% 29.57% 33.35%+0.04 -0.1 3
2023-04-09 @ Balti D 2-263.9 1426 1419 33.35% 29.57% 37.08%-0.04 +0.1 2
2023-04-09 Sfintul Gheorghe W 1-046.1 1736 1415 74.41% 16.93% 8.66%+1.38 +1.9 12
2023-04-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-146.1 1415 1736 8.66% 16.93% 74.41%-1.38 -1.9 3
2023-04-09 Zimbru W 3-255.3 1607 1399 63.70% 22.74% 13.56%+0.92 +3.0 7
2023-04-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 2-355.3 1399 1607 13.56% 22.74% 63.70%-0.92 -3.0 4
2023-04-15 Balti W 1-046.8 1396 1418 34.88% 29.59% 35.53%-0.03 +8.0 7
2023-04-15 @ Zimbru L 0-146.8 1418 1396 35.53% 29.59% 34.88%+0.03 -8.0 3
2023-04-15 Milsami Orhei W 2-152.9 1738 1426 73.65% 17.37% 8.97%+1.34 +1.9 15
2023-04-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-252.9 1426 1738 8.97% 17.37% 73.65%-1.34 -1.9 2
2023-04-15 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-059.8 1414 1610 16.77% 25.25% 57.98%-0.74 +2.1 4
2023-04-15 @ Sfintul Gheorghe D 0-059.8 1610 1414 57.98% 25.25% 16.77%+0.74 -2.1 8
2023-04-22 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-244.2 1424 1608 17.68% 25.80% 56.52%-0.69 -8.4 2
2023-04-22 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-044.2 1608 1424 56.52% 25.80% 17.68%+0.69 +8.4 11
2023-04-22 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-171.6 1411 1740 9.86% 18.59% 71.55%-1.28 +2.9 4
2023-04-22 @ Balti D 1-171.6 1740 1411 71.55% 18.59% 9.86%+1.28 -2.9 16
2023-04-22 Zimbru L 0-244.8 1416 1404 39.81% 29.43% 30.76%+0.12 -16.3 4
2023-04-22 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-044.8 1404 1416 30.76% 29.43% 39.81%-0.12 +16.3 10
2023-04-29 Sfintul Gheorghe L 0-244.7 1413 1399 40.10% 29.41% 30.49%+0.12 -16.4 4
2023-04-29 @ Balti W 2-044.7 1399 1413 30.49% 29.41% 40.10%-0.12 +16.4 7
2023-04-30 Milsami Orhei L 0-148.2 1420 1416 38.72% 29.50% 31.78%+0.08 -8.5 10
2023-04-30 @ Zimbru W 1-048.2 1416 1420 31.78% 29.50% 38.72%-0.08 +8.5 5
2023-04-30 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-172.3 1616 1737 23.02% 28.08% 48.90%-0.43 +1.1 12
2023-04-30 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-172.3 1737 1616 48.90% 28.08% 23.02%+0.43 -1.2 17
2023-05-06 Zimbru D 0-066.5 1736 1412 74.73% 16.74% 8.53%+1.39 -3.5 18
2023-05-06 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-066.5 1412 1736 8.53% 16.74% 74.73%-1.39 +3.5 11
2023-05-07 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-340.5 1397 1617 15.23% 24.15% 60.62%-0.83 -10.4 4
2023-05-07 @ Balti W 3-040.5 1617 1397 60.62% 24.15% 15.23%+0.83 +10.4 15
2023-05-07 Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-041.0 1424 1416 39.32% 29.46% 31.21%+0.10 +19.8 8
2023-05-07 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-341.0 1416 1424 31.21% 29.46% 39.32%-0.10 -19.8 7
2023-05-13 Balti W 1-043.8 1444 1387 45.99% 28.67% 25.34%+0.30 +6.2 11
2023-05-13 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-143.8 1387 1444 25.34% 28.67% 45.99%-0.30 -6.2 4
2023-05-14 Petrocub Hincesti L 1-253.2 1415 1628 15.70% 24.51% 59.80%-0.80 -3.7 11
2023-05-14 @ Zimbru W 2-153.2 1628 1415 59.80% 24.51% 15.70%+0.80 +3.7 18
2023-05-14 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-242.8 1396 1732 9.58% 18.22% 72.20%-1.31 -4.2 7
2023-05-14 @ Sfintul Gheorghe W 2-042.8 1732 1396 72.20% 18.22% 9.58%+1.31 +4.2 21
2023-05-20 Sfintul Gheorghe W 3-038.9 1631 1392 66.90% 21.13% 11.97%+1.05 +7.9 21
2023-05-20 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-338.9 1392 1631 11.97% 21.13% 66.90%-1.05 -7.9 7
2023-05-20 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-443.7 1450 1736 11.70% 20.83% 67.46%-1.10 -10.1 11
2023-05-20 @ Milsami Orhei W 4-043.7 1736 1450 67.46% 20.83% 11.70%+1.10 +10.1 24
2023-05-20 Zimbru D 1-156.7 1380 1411 33.74% 29.58% 36.68%-0.06 +0.1 5
2023-05-20 @ Balti D 1-156.7 1411 1380 36.68% 29.58% 33.74%+0.06 -0.1 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-10-16 13.57% @ Zimbru 1353 2 Petrocub Hincesti 1602 1
2 2022-07-31 15.40% Sfintul Gheorghe 1436 2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1613 0
3 2022-09-16 19.98% Dacia Buiucani 1308 1 @ Balti 1421 0
4 2022-08-13 20.78% @ Dacia Buiucani 1308 2 Sfintul Gheorghe 1453 0
5 2022-10-23 21.47% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1590 1 Sheriff Tiraspol 1728 0
6 2022-08-14 22.26% @ Milsami Orhei 1464 1 Petrocub Hincesti 1593 0
7 2023-03-18 23.20% Zimbru 1375 3 @ Milsami Orhei 1453 0
8 2022-10-09 24.03% Zimbru 1334 2 @ Balti 1404 0
9 2022-11-09 25.03% Zimbru 1365 1 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1426 0
10 2022-09-04 27.50% Balti 1417 2 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1456 1
11 2022-08-28 27.70% Sfintul Gheorghe 1447 3 @ Milsami Orhei 1484 2
12 2022-10-28 28.80% @ Balti 1390 4 Sfintul Gheorghe 1458 0
13 2022-08-27 30.15% Dacia Buiucani 1318 4 @ Zimbru 1335 3
14 2023-04-29 30.49% Sfintul Gheorghe 1399 2 @ Balti 1413 0
15 2023-04-22 30.76% Zimbru 1404 2 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1416 0
16 2023-04-30 31.78% Milsami Orhei 1416 1 @ Zimbru 1420 0
17 2023-04-15 34.88% @ Zimbru 1396 1 Balti 1418 0
18 2022-10-23 34.92% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1450 1 Milsami Orhei 1472 0
19 2022-09-10 34.97% @ Dinamo-Auto 1301 2 Dacia Buiucani 1323 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-10-28 32.14 @ Balti 4 1390 28.80% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1458 41.96% 29.24%
2 2022-11-09 29.78 @ Dacia Buiucani 5 1318 42.35% Dinamo-Auto 0 1287 28.45% 29.20%
3 2023-03-18 27.61 Zimbru 3 1375 23.20% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1453 48.66% 28.13%
4 2022-07-31 22.54 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1436 15.40% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1613 60.31% 24.29%
5 2022-08-13 20.09 Balti 3 1399 38.74% @ Zimbru 0 1353 31.76% 29.50%
6 2022-08-13 20.02 @ Dacia Buiucani 2 1308 20.78% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1453 51.92% 27.31%
7 2023-05-07 19.84 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1424 39.32% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1416 31.21% 29.46%
8 2022-10-09 18.68 Zimbru 2 1334 24.03% @ Balti 0 1404 47.61% 28.36%
9 2023-04-29 16.37 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1399 30.49% @ Balti 0 1413 40.10% 29.41%
10 2023-04-22 16.28 Zimbru 2 1404 30.76% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1416 39.81% 29.43%
11 2022-09-10 14.96 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1301 34.97% Dacia Buiucani 0 1323 35.43% 29.59%
12 2022-08-20 14.26 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 3 1433 51.79% Dinamo-Auto 0 1330 20.87% 27.34%
13 2022-10-16 11.75 @ Zimbru 2 1353 13.57% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1602 63.69% 22.74%
14 2022-09-16 10.80 Dacia Buiucani 1 1308 19.98% @ Balti 0 1421 53.04% 26.97%
15 2022-10-23 10.46 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1590 21.47% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1728 50.96% 27.57%
16 2023-05-07 10.40 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1617 60.62% @ Balti 0 1397 15.23% 24.15%
17 2022-10-15 10.32 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1440 50.15% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1309 22.07% 27.78%
18 2022-08-14 10.29 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1464 22.26% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1593 49.90% 27.84%
19 2023-05-20 10.06 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1736 67.46% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1450 11.70% 20.83%
20 2022-08-21 9.74 Milsami Orhei 2 1474 52.05% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1328 20.68% 27.27%
21 2022-11-09 9.70 Zimbru 1 1365 25.03% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1426 46.37% 28.60%
22 2022-09-03 8.83 @ Petrocub Hincesti 4 1582 70.07% Dinamo-Auto 0 1310 10.51% 19.42%
23 2022-09-04 8.70 Balti 2 1417 27.50% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1456 43.44% 29.06%
24 2023-04-30 8.46 Milsami Orhei 1 1416 31.78% @ Zimbru 0 1420 38.72% 29.50%
25 2023-04-22 8.37 Petrocub Hincesti 2 1608 56.52% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1424 17.68% 25.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-04-30 72.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1616 23.02% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1737 48.90% 28.08%
2 2022-08-29 72.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1715 55.54% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1580 18.30% 26.16%
3 2023-04-22 71.6 @ Balti 1 1411 9.86% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1740 71.55% 18.59%
4 2022-07-30 68.7 @ Zimbru 1 1350 9.03% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1701 73.52% 17.45%
5 2022-08-20 68.7 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1582 67.84% Zimbru 2 1333 11.53% 20.64%
6 2023-05-06 66.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1736 74.73% Zimbru 0 1412 8.53% 16.74%
7 2022-09-11 65.8 @ Zimbru 3 1323 22.74% Sfintul Gheorghe 3 1447 49.27% 28.00%
8 2022-10-23 65.1 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1590 21.47% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1728 50.96% 27.57%
9 2022-09-18 64.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1722 80.54% Zimbru 0 1324 6.26% 13.21%
10 2023-04-09 63.9 @ Balti 2 1419 37.08% Milsami Orhei 2 1426 33.35% 29.57%
11 2022-10-16 63.8 @ Zimbru 2 1353 13.57% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1602 63.69% 22.74%
12 2022-08-28 63.4 Sfintul Gheorghe 3 1447 27.70% @ Milsami Orhei 2 1484 43.21% 29.09%
13 2023-04-02 60.5 @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1609 62.13% Balti 0 1416 14.39% 23.48%
14 2023-04-15 59.8 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1414 16.77% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1610 57.98% 25.25%
15 2022-08-14 58.7 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1464 22.26% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1593 49.90% 27.84%
16 2022-08-07 58.5 @ Balti 1 1398 29.04% Milsami Orhei 1 1464 41.69% 29.27%
17 2022-08-27 58.5 Dacia Buiucani 4 1318 30.15% @ Zimbru 3 1335 40.47% 29.38%
18 2022-10-15 58.0 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1474 58.24% Dacia Buiucani 1 1317 16.61% 25.15%
19 2023-04-02 57.9 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1416 36.67% Milsami Orhei 1 1426 33.75% 29.58%
20 2022-10-27 57.8 @ Zimbru 1 1365 25.17% Milsami Orhei 1 1464 46.20% 28.63%
21 2023-03-17 57.6 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1416 38.12% Balti 1 1416 32.35% 29.53%
22 2022-09-16 57.5 @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1316 19.60% Milsami Orhei 1 1474 53.59% 26.80%
23 2022-10-02 57.3 @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1319 11.91% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1600 67.02% 21.07%
24 2022-07-31 57.1 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1436 15.40% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1613 60.31% 24.29%
25 2022-09-04 56.9 Balti 2 1417 27.50% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1456 43.44% 29.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-09-03 33.0 @ Petrocub Hincesti 4 1582 70.07% Dinamo-Auto 0 1310 10.51% 19.42%
2 2022-08-20 35.5 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 3 1433 51.79% Dinamo-Auto 0 1330 20.87% 27.34%
3 2022-11-09 36.7 @ Dacia Buiucani 5 1318 42.35% Dinamo-Auto 0 1287 28.45% 29.20%
4 2022-10-15 37.5 Sfintul Gheorghe 2 1440 50.15% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1309 22.07% 27.78%
5 2022-08-14 37.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1704 78.55% Dinamo-Auto 0 1333 7.01% 14.43%
6 2022-08-21 38.0 Milsami Orhei 2 1474 52.05% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1328 20.68% 27.27%
7 2022-10-27 38.2 Petrocub Hincesti 4 1601 69.54% @ Dinamo-Auto 1 1293 10.75% 19.71%
8 2022-09-03 38.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1713 76.54% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1326 7.80% 15.66%
9 2022-08-07 38.5 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1590 70.75% Dacia Buiucani 0 1311 10.21% 19.04%
10 2023-05-20 38.9 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1631 66.90% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1392 11.97% 21.13%
11 2022-08-13 39.2 Balti 3 1399 38.74% @ Zimbru 0 1353 31.76% 29.50%
12 2022-09-04 39.8 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1476 57.15% Zimbru 0 1327 17.28% 25.57%
13 2022-10-08 40.1 @ Sfintul Gheorghe 1 1435 53.02% Dacia Buiucani 0 1322 20.00% 26.98%
14 2022-10-22 40.1 @ Balti 1 1384 49.59% Dinamo-Auto 0 1299 22.50% 27.92%
15 2023-05-07 40.5 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1617 60.62% @ Balti 0 1397 15.23% 24.15%
16 2022-09-10 40.6 @ Dinamo-Auto 2 1301 34.97% Dacia Buiucani 0 1323 35.43% 29.59%
17 2022-10-09 40.9 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1724 78.69% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1310 6.96% 14.35%
18 2023-05-07 41.0 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1424 39.32% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1416 31.21% 29.46%
19 2022-08-27 41.9 Balti 1 1411 45.57% @ Dinamo-Auto 0 1316 25.69% 28.74%
20 2022-08-21 42.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1707 67.67% @ Balti 0 1419 11.61% 20.73%
21 2022-10-02 42.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1718 70.46% Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1441 10.34% 19.20%
22 2023-05-14 42.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1732 72.20% @ Sfintul Gheorghe 0 1396 9.58% 18.22%
23 2023-04-01 43.2 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1732 71.49% @ Zimbru 0 1403 9.89% 18.62%
24 2023-05-20 43.7 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1736 67.46% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1450 11.70% 20.83%
25 2023-05-13 43.8 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1444 45.99% Balti 0 1387 25.34% 28.67%