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2023-24 Super Liga Season

86 games

Final

Champion

Petrocub Hincesti

52 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Petrocub Hincesti

4.99 points above expected

52 points · 47.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Spartanii Sportul

9.19 points below expected

2 points · 11.19 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 14 11 1 2 34 35 7 +28 31.14 +2.86
2 Petrocub Hincesti 14 8 4 2 28 29 7 +22 26.73 +1.27
3 Milsami Orhei 14 9 1 4 28 20 14 +6 21.48 +6.52
4 Zimbru 14 8 1 5 25 17 11 +6 21.00 +4.00
5 Balti 14 7 1 6 22 26 22 +4 19.76 +2.24
6 Dacia Buiucani 14 3 3 8 12 14 32 -18 15.30 -3.30
7 Floresti 14 3 1 10 10 18 33 -15 11.11 -1.11
8 Spartanii Sportul 14 0 2 12 2 9 42 -33 11.19 -9.19
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Petrocub Hincesti 24 15 7 2 52 59 12 +47 19.01 +32.99
2 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 16 4 4 52 51 16 +35 20.42 +31.58
3 Zimbru 24 13 3 8 42 33 23 +10 12.83 +29.17
4 Milsami Orhei 24 11 5 8 38 31 26 +5 12.41 +25.59
5 Balti 24 9 3 12 30 33 44 -11 13.22 +16.78
6 Dacia Buiucani 24 3 7 14 16 20 58 -38 6.52 +9.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Petrocub Hincesti 52 47.01 +4.99
2 Zimbru 42 37.83 +4.17
3 Floresti 10 11.11 -1.11
4 Milsami Orhei 38 40.41 -2.41
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 52 54.42 -2.42

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spartanii Sportul 2 11.19 -9.19
2 Balti 30 35.22 -5.22
3 Dacia Buiucani 16 18.52 -2.52
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 52 54.42 -2.42
5 Milsami Orhei 38 40.41 -2.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 4 Aug 12 – Sep 16 1 in 45
2 Milsami Orhei 5 Aug 27 – Oct 7 1 in 43
3 Dacia Buiucani 2 Nov 27 – Dec 3 1 in 20
4 Balti 3 Oct 7 – Oct 29 1 in 17
5 Sheriff Tiraspol 5 Oct 21 – Nov 25 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 2 Nov 25 – Dec 3 1 in 15
2 Spartanii Sportul 5 Sep 24 – Oct 28 1 in 13
3 Floresti 5 Oct 21 – Nov 27 1 in 9
4 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 Aug 27 – Aug 27 1 in 5
5 Balti 3 Apr 13 – Apr 27 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Petrocub Hincesti 19 Sep 23 – May 18 1 in 147
2 Dacia Buiucani 3 Nov 27 – Mar 9 1 in 25
3 Zimbru 4 Aug 12 – Sep 16 1 in 8
4 Milsami Orhei 5 Aug 27 – Oct 7 1 in 7
5 Balti 3 Oct 7 – Oct 29 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 Dec 3 – Mar 31 1 in 64
2 Spartanii Sportul 14 Aug 5 – Dec 3 1 in 39
3 Milsami Orhei 5 Dec 3 – Apr 6 1 in 11
4 Zimbru 4 Nov 10 – Mar 10 1 in 10
5 Petrocub Hincesti 3 Oct 8 – Oct 28 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Petrocub Hincesti 1730 52 +51 13 10.7 +2.3
Sheriff Tiraspol 1648 52 -34 9 10.1 -1.1
Zimbru 1538 42 +27 9 7.7 +1.3
Milsami Orhei 1469 38 +4 5 6.5 -1.5
Balti 1386 30 -39 4 5.4 -1.4
Dacia Buiucani 1233 16 -8 2 1.9 +0.1
Floresti 1246 10 -25 3 3.5 -0.5
Spartanii Sportul 1151 2 -55 1 3.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL DB FLO MO PH ST SS ZIM
Balti —
2-2-0
6.95
2-0-0
3.95
2-0-2
4.84
0-0-4
3.27
1-0-3
2.05
1-1-0
4.20
1-0-3
4.69
Dacia Buiucani
0-2-2
4.28
 —
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-3
3.20
0-1-3
1.80
0-1-3
1.38
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-3
3.04
Floresti
0-0-2
1.67
0-1-1
2.36
 —
1-0-1
1.19
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
0.71
2-0-0
2.19
0-0-2
1.81
Milsami Orhei
2-0-2
6.38
3-1-0
8.05
1-0-1
4.45
 —
0-2-2
3.32
1-1-2
2.77
2-0-0
4.48
2-1-1
5.53
Petrocub Hincesti
4-0-0
7.97
3-1-0
9.55
2-0-0
4.65
2-2-0
7.92
 —
1-2-1
5.09
2-0-0
4.93
1-2-1
7.59
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-0-1
9.25
3-1-0
9.98
2-0-0
4.97
2-1-1
8.49
1-2-1
6.13
 —
2-0-0
4.87
3-0-1
7.89
Spartanii Sportul
0-1-1
1.42
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
3.42
0-0-2
1.16
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.80
 —
0-0-2
1.44
Zimbru
3-0-1
6.52
3-0-1
8.22
2-0-0
3.82
1-1-2
5.68
1-2-1
3.65
1-0-3
3.35
2-0-0
4.18
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +10.7
Allowed 0.60 -9.5
Differential 0.84 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.65%6.40%5.81%5.81%3.49%2.91%29.07%
16.40%11.63%7.56%3.49%2.33%1.74%33.14%
25.81%7.56%2.33%1.16%——16.86%
35.81%3.49%1.16%———10.47%
43.49%2.33%————5.81%
5+2.91%1.74%————4.65%
Total29.07%33.14%16.86%10.47%5.81%4.65%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.52
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 86

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%4.17%16.67%8.33%4.17%41.67%
14.17%8.33%8.33%———20.83%
2—8.33%4.17%———12.50%
38.33%4.17%4.17%———16.67%
4———————
5+—8.33%————8.33%
Total12.50%37.50%20.83%16.67%8.33%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.83 -0.46
SD 1.58 1.34 2.59
CV 1.15 0.73 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%4.17%8.33%16.67%4.17%8.33%45.83%
1—16.67%4.17%4.17%4.17%4.17%33.33%
2—8.33%8.33%———16.67%
3———————
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total4.17%33.33%20.83%20.83%8.33%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 2.42 -1.58
SD 1.01 1.67 2.24
CV 1.21 0.69 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%——7.14%7.14%21.43%
17.14%—28.57%7.14%—7.14%50.00%
2——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
3—7.14%————7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%35.71%14.29%7.14%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.36 -1.07
SD 1.14 1.74 2.53
CV 0.89 0.74 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%4.17%8.33%——29.17%
18.33%12.50%8.33%4.17%——33.33%
24.17%16.67%————20.83%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
4—4.17%————4.17%
5+———————
Total29.17%45.83%12.50%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.08 +0.21
SD 1.16 0.97 1.74
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%4.17%4.17%———16.67%
18.33%20.83%————29.17%
24.17%4.17%————8.33%
316.67%—4.17%———20.83%
44.17%4.17%————8.33%
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total58.33%33.33%8.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.46 0.50 +1.96
SD 2.15 0.66 2.48
CV 0.87 1.32 —
Max 7 2 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—8.33%———16.67%
18.33%8.33%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
212.50%12.50%————25.00%
34.17%—————4.17%
416.67%4.17%————20.83%
5+4.17%4.17%————8.33%
Total54.17%29.17%12.50%4.17%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 0.67 +1.46
SD 1.62 0.87 2.11
CV 0.76 1.30 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%14.29%—14.29%7.14%42.86%
1—14.29%7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%50.00%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—21.43%21.43%21.43%21.43%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 3.00 -2.36
SD 0.63 1.71 1.91
CV 0.99 0.57 —
Max 2 7 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.17%12.50%4.17%———20.83%
112.50%8.33%8.33%—8.33%—37.50%
220.83%4.17%————25.00%
34.17%12.50%————16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total41.67%37.50%12.50%—8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 0.96 +0.42
SD 1.01 1.16 1.72
CV 0.74 1.21 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Petrocub Hincesti 1730 52 26.73 +25.27 66.0% 16 19 24 27 30 34 39
Sheriff Tiraspol 1648 52 31.14 +20.86 75.0% 13 23 29 32 34 38 40
Zimbru 1538 42 21.00 +21.00 82.0% 12 14 17 20 25 29 33
Milsami Orhei 1469 38 21.48 +16.52 95.0% 11 13 19 21 25 28 33
Balti 1386 30 19.76 +10.24 73.0% 9 13 17 20 23 27 30
Floresti 1246 10 11.11 -1.11 40.0% 1 4 7 11 14 18 23
Dacia Buiucani 1233 16 15.30 +0.70 33.0% 7 9 12 15 18 23 25
Spartanii Sportul 1151 2 11.19 -9.19 3.0% 0 3 9 11 14 17 22

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+20.93%
Strong Edge
51.16%18.60%30.23%
Elo Value
Home Edge
144 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
073.81400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.58 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
Petrocub Hincesti, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.230.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.64 * Some Luck: 3.64 to 5.46 * Lucky: 5.46 to 7.28 * Wild Swing: 7.28 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.77 * Close: 0.77 to 1.15 * Off: 1.15 to 1.54 * Way Off: 1.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.59 points
Some Luck
04.5511
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Pinpoint
00.962
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Milsami Orhei
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Spartanii Sportul
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.33
Lopsided
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 183.87
2.98
Wide Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
80%
Slight Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%33%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.50
Slight Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.90
Near-Lock
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.58
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.30
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.154
Well Within Noise
00.1720.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
Petrocub Hincesti20.00%51.00%15.00%8.00%6.00%———
Sheriff Tiraspol71.00%14.00%11.00%3.00%———1.00%
Zimbru5.00%12.00%18.00%24.00%22.00%17.00%2.00%—
Milsami Orhei3.00%13.00%28.00%23.00%21.00%8.00%4.00%—
Balti1.00%9.00%18.00%28.00%22.00%15.00%6.00%1.00%
Dacia Buiucani—1.00%8.00%11.00%18.00%22.00%30.00%10.00%
Floresti——1.00%1.00%6.00%23.00%26.00%43.00%
Spartanii Sportul——1.00%2.00%5.00%15.00%32.00%45.00%
Team123456
Petrocub Hincesti32.67%33.51%18.45%9.19%5.01%1.17%
Sheriff Tiraspol49.73%27.99%12.64%6.40%2.63%0.61%
Zimbru5.90%12.37%21.83%24.78%23.52%11.60%
Milsami Orhei5.03%11.67%21.62%24.71%24.52%12.45%
Balti6.35%13.04%21.64%25.43%22.41%11.13%
Dacia Buiucani0.32%1.42%3.82%9.49%21.91%63.04%
Floresti——————
Spartanii Sportul——————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 93.00% 7.00%
Dacia Buiucani 60.00% 40.00%
Floresti 31.00% 69.00%
Milsami Orhei 96.00% 4.00%
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 99.00% 1.00%
Spartanii Sportul 23.00% 77.00%
Zimbru 98.00% 2.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 100% —
Dacia Buiucani 100% —
Floresti — 100%
Milsami Orhei 100% —
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Spartanii Sportul — 100%
Zimbru 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-08-05 Dacia Buiucani W 3-037.6 1393 1375 52.51% 19.53% 27.96%+0.64 +31.1 3
2023-08-05 @ Balti L 0-337.6 1375 1393 27.96% 19.53% 52.51%-0.64 -31.0 0
2023-08-05 Spartanii Sportul W 4-042.0 1218 1379 28.49% 19.55% 51.96%-0.61 +68.2 3
2023-08-05 @ Floresti L 0-442.0 1379 1218 51.96% 19.55% 28.49%+0.61 -68.2 0
2023-08-06 Milsami Orhei L 0-149.0 1411 1429 47.91% 19.66% 32.44%+0.39 -17.7 0
2023-08-06 @ Zimbru W 1-049.0 1429 1411 32.44% 19.66% 47.91%-0.39 +17.7 3
2023-08-06 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-158.3 1561 1635 40.10% 19.73% 40.17%+0.00 -15.3 0
2023-08-06 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 1-058.3 1635 1561 40.17% 19.73% 40.10%+0.00 +15.3 3
2023-08-12 Balti W 2-149.2 1447 1424 53.07% 19.51% 27.42%+0.67 +10.5 6
2023-08-12 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-249.2 1424 1447 27.42% 19.51% 53.07%-0.67 -10.5 3
2023-08-12 Zimbru L 1-247.8 1286 1393 35.45% 19.70% 44.85%-0.23 -13.0 3
2023-08-12 @ Floresti W 2-147.8 1393 1286 44.85% 19.70% 35.45%+0.23 +13.0 3
2023-08-13 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-143.2 1344 1546 23.88% 19.34% 56.77%-0.89 -9.9 0
2023-08-13 @ Dacia Buiucani W 1-043.2 1546 1344 56.77% 19.34% 23.88%+0.89 +9.9 3
2023-08-13 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-239.8 1311 1650 12.51% 18.14% 69.35%-1.85 -10.3 0
2023-08-13 @ Spartanii Sportul W 2-039.8 1650 1311 69.35% 18.14% 12.51%+1.85 +10.3 6
2023-08-19 Milsami Orhei W 2-044.1 1556 1457 61.42% 19.04% 19.54%+1.20 +15.6 6
2023-08-19 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-244.1 1457 1556 19.54% 19.04% 61.42%-1.20 -15.6 6
2023-08-19 Spartanii Sportul W 2-035.4 1406 1301 62.12% 18.98% 18.90%+1.25 +15.1 6
2023-08-19 @ Zimbru L 0-235.4 1301 1406 18.90% 18.98% 62.12%-1.25 -15.1 0
2023-08-20 Dacia Buiucani W 5-036.0 1661 1334 77.28% 16.35% 6.37%+2.79 +12.2 9
2023-08-20 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-536.0 1334 1661 6.37% 16.35% 77.28%-2.79 -12.2 0
2023-08-20 Floresti W 2-141.7 1413 1273 65.28% 18.67% 16.04%+1.49 +6.5 6
2023-08-20 @ Balti L 1-241.7 1273 1413 16.04% 18.67% 65.28%-1.49 -6.5 3
2023-08-26 Balti W 1-043.7 1421 1420 50.43% 19.60% 29.97%+0.52 +12.0 9
2023-08-26 @ Zimbru L 0-143.7 1420 1421 29.97% 19.60% 50.43%-0.52 -12.0 6
2023-08-26 Dacia Buiucani L 1-446.4 1286 1322 45.45% 19.70% 34.86%+0.26 -39.1 0
2023-08-26 @ Spartanii Sportul W 4-146.4 1322 1286 34.86% 19.70% 45.45%-0.26 +39.1 3
2023-08-27 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-138.7 1267 1571 14.81% 18.51% 66.68%-1.61 -6.4 3
2023-08-27 @ Floresti W 1-038.7 1571 1267 66.68% 18.51% 14.81%+1.61 +6.4 9
2023-08-27 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-059.8 1441 1673 20.92% 19.15% 59.93%-1.10 +41.1 9
2023-08-27 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-259.8 1673 1441 59.93% 19.15% 20.92%+1.10 -41.1 9
2023-09-16 Floresti W 5-136.2 1632 1260 79.27% 15.66% 5.07%+3.10 +6.5 12
2023-09-16 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-536.2 1260 1632 5.07% 15.66% 79.27%-3.10 -6.5 3
2023-09-16 Milsami Orhei L 1-250.3 1361 1483 33.48% 19.68% 46.84%-0.33 -12.4 3
2023-09-16 @ Dacia Buiucani W 2-150.3 1483 1361 46.84% 19.68% 33.48%+0.33 +12.4 12
2023-09-16 Zimbru L 0-257.7 1578 1433 65.61% 18.64% 15.76%+1.52 -44.9 9
2023-09-16 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 2-057.7 1433 1578 15.76% 18.64% 65.61%-1.52 +44.9 12
2023-09-17 Spartanii Sportul D 1-156.3 1408 1246 67.04% 18.47% 14.49%+1.64 -4.7 7
2023-09-17 @ Balti D 1-156.3 1246 1408 14.49% 18.47% 67.04%-1.64 +4.7 1
2023-09-23 Dacia Buiucani D 2-261.4 1254 1348 37.17% 19.72% 43.11%-0.15 +0.4 4
2023-09-23 @ Floresti D 2-261.4 1348 1254 43.11% 19.72% 37.17%+0.15 -0.4 4
2023-09-23 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-442.9 1403 1533 32.47% 19.66% 47.87%-0.39 -46.0 7
2023-09-23 @ Balti W 4-042.9 1533 1403 47.87% 19.66% 32.47%+0.39 +46.0 12
2023-09-24 Milsami Orhei L 1-243.8 1251 1495 19.74% 19.06% 61.21%-1.18 -7.9 1
2023-09-24 @ Spartanii Sportul W 2-143.8 1495 1251 61.21% 19.06% 19.74%+1.18 +7.9 15
2023-09-24 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-152.7 1478 1638 28.66% 19.55% 51.79%-0.60 -11.6 12
2023-09-24 @ Zimbru W 1-052.7 1638 1478 51.79% 19.55% 28.66%+0.60 +11.6 15
2023-09-30 Balti W 4-037.2 1650 1357 75.59% 16.84% 7.57%+2.55 +11.8 18
2023-09-30 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-437.2 1357 1650 7.57% 16.84% 75.59%-2.55 -11.8 7
2023-09-30 Spartanii Sportul W 3-245.9 1579 1243 77.69% 16.22% 6.09%+2.85 +2.4 15
2023-09-30 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 2-345.9 1243 1579 6.09% 16.22% 77.69%-2.85 -2.4 1
2023-10-01 Floresti W 2-140.4 1503 1254 73.14% 17.44% 9.42%+2.24 +3.9 18
2023-10-01 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-240.4 1254 1503 9.42% 17.44% 73.14%-2.24 -3.9 4
2023-10-01 Zimbru L 1-348.0 1348 1467 33.88% 19.68% 46.44%-0.31 -21.8 4
2023-10-01 @ Dacia Buiucani W 3-148.0 1467 1348 46.44% 19.68% 33.88%+0.31 +21.8 15
2023-10-07 Balti L 1-545.7 1326 1345 47.73% 19.66% 32.61%+0.38 -52.7 4
2023-10-07 @ Dacia Buiucani W 5-145.7 1345 1326 32.61% 19.66% 47.73%-0.38 +52.7 10
2023-10-07 Zimbru W 1-048.2 1507 1489 52.53% 19.53% 27.94%+0.64 +11.3 21
2023-10-07 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-148.2 1489 1507 27.94% 19.53% 52.53%-0.64 -11.3 15
2023-10-08 Floresti L 1-349.0 1241 1250 49.04% 19.63% 31.33%+0.45 -29.6 1
2023-10-08 @ Spartanii Sportul W 3-149.0 1250 1241 31.33% 19.63% 49.04%-0.45 +29.5 7
2023-10-08 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-067.6 1662 1581 59.61% 19.17% 21.22%+1.07 -3.7 19
2023-10-08 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-067.6 1581 1662 21.22% 19.17% 59.61%-1.07 +3.7 16
2023-10-21 Floresti W 3-139.8 1477 1280 69.77% 18.07% 12.16%+1.89 +8.7 18
2023-10-21 @ Zimbru L 1-339.8 1280 1477 12.16% 18.07% 69.77%-1.89 -8.6 7
2023-10-21 Milsami Orhei W 3-047.2 1398 1518 33.72% 19.68% 46.60%-0.32 +47.4 13
2023-10-21 @ Balti L 0-347.2 1518 1398 46.60% 19.68% 33.72%+0.32 -47.4 21
2023-10-21 Spartanii Sportul W 4-030.4 1658 1211 82.10% 14.45% 3.45%+3.62 +5.2 22
2023-10-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-430.4 1211 1658 3.45% 14.45% 82.10%-3.62 -5.2 1
2023-10-22 Dacia Buiucani D 0-056.3 1585 1273 76.54% 16.58% 6.89%+2.68 -7.1 17
2023-10-22 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 0-056.3 1273 1585 6.89% 16.58% 76.54%-2.68 +7.1 5
2023-10-28 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-166.3 1471 1578 35.47% 19.70% 44.82%-0.23 +0.8 22
2023-10-28 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-166.3 1578 1471 44.82% 19.70% 35.47%+0.23 -0.8 18
2023-10-28 Zimbru L 0-136.5 1206 1486 16.68% 18.75% 64.57%-1.43 -7.2 1
2023-10-28 @ Spartanii Sportul W 1-036.5 1486 1206 64.57% 18.75% 16.68%+1.43 +7.2 21
2023-10-29 Balti L 2-351.1 1271 1445 26.93% 19.49% 53.58%-0.70 -9.8 7
2023-10-29 @ Floresti W 3-251.1 1445 1271 53.58% 19.49% 26.93%+0.70 +9.8 16
2023-10-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-435.8 1281 1663 10.10% 17.62% 72.28%-2.15 -15.8 5
2023-10-29 @ Dacia Buiucani W 4-035.8 1663 1281 72.28% 17.62% 10.10%+2.15 +15.8 25
2023-11-04 Floresti W 6-031.0 1577 1261 76.76% 16.51% 6.73%+2.71 +15.4 21
2023-11-04 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-631.0 1261 1577 6.73% 16.51% 76.76%-2.71 -15.4 7
2023-11-04 Spartanii Sportul D 1-155.0 1265 1199 58.04% 19.27% 22.68%+0.97 -3.0 6
2023-11-04 @ Dacia Buiucani D 1-155.0 1199 1265 22.68% 19.27% 58.04%-0.97 +3.0 2
2023-11-05 Milsami Orhei W 2-153.6 1679 1471 70.47% 17.96% 11.57%+1.96 +4.8 28
2023-11-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-253.6 1471 1679 11.57% 17.96% 70.47%-1.96 -4.8 22
2023-11-05 Zimbru L 0-151.7 1455 1493 45.22% 19.70% 35.08%+0.25 -16.9 16
2023-11-05 @ Balti W 1-051.7 1493 1455 35.08% 19.70% 45.22%-0.25 +16.9 24
2023-11-10 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-168.1 1510 1592 38.90% 19.73% 41.37%-0.06 +0.2 25
2023-11-10 @ Zimbru D 1-168.1 1592 1510 41.37% 19.73% 38.90%+0.06 -0.2 22
2023-11-11 Balti L 1-537.0 1202 1438 20.43% 19.11% 60.46%-1.13 -25.7 2
2023-11-11 @ Spartanii Sportul W 5-137.0 1438 1202 60.46% 19.11% 20.43%+1.13 +25.7 19
2023-11-11 Dacia Buiucani W 3-031.6 1467 1262 70.29% 17.99% 11.72%+1.94 +14.0 25
2023-11-11 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-331.6 1262 1467 11.72% 17.99% 70.29%-1.94 -14.0 6
2023-11-12 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-434.4 1246 1684 7.65% 16.88% 75.47%-2.53 -12.0 7
2023-11-12 @ Floresti W 4-034.4 1684 1246 75.47% 16.88% 7.65%+2.53 +12.0 31
2023-11-25 Balti W 3-043.2 1592 1464 64.20% 18.79% 17.01%+1.40 +20.0 25
2023-11-25 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-343.2 1464 1592 17.01% 18.79% 64.20%-1.40 -20.0 19
2023-11-25 Spartanii Sportul W 3-136.5 1481 1176 76.19% 16.67% 7.13%+2.63 +5.1 28
2023-11-25 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-336.5 1176 1481 7.13% 16.67% 76.19%-2.63 -5.1 2
2023-11-25 Zimbru W 2-047.8 1696 1510 68.91% 18.21% 12.88%+1.80 +10.6 34
2023-11-25 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-247.8 1510 1696 12.88% 18.21% 68.91%-1.80 -10.6 25
2023-11-27 Floresti W 2-144.4 1248 1234 51.99% 19.55% 28.46%+0.61 +10.8 9
2023-11-27 @ Dacia Buiucani L 1-244.4 1234 1248 28.46% 19.55% 51.99%-0.61 -10.8 7
2023-12-03 Dacia Buiucani L 1-259.5 1499 1259 72.65% 17.54% 9.81%+2.19 -24.8 25
2023-12-03 @ Zimbru W 2-159.5 1259 1499 9.81% 17.54% 72.65%-2.19 +24.8 12
2023-12-03 Milsami Orhei W 1-050.7 1223 1486 18.07% 18.90% 63.02%-1.31 +22.9 10
2023-12-03 @ Floresti L 0-150.7 1486 1223 63.02% 18.90% 18.07%+1.31 -22.9 28
2023-12-03 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-730.2 1171 1612 7.54% 16.83% 75.62%-2.55 -20.0 2
2023-12-03 @ Spartanii Sportul W 7-030.2 1612 1171 75.62% 16.83% 7.54%+2.55 +20.0 28
2023-12-03 Sheriff Tiraspol W 3-167.7 1444 1706 18.13% 18.91% 62.97%-1.31 +37.3 22
2023-12-03 @ Balti L 1-367.7 1706 1444 62.97% 18.91% 18.13%+1.31 -37.3 34

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-03-09 Balti W 5-043.6 1632 1481 66.15% 18.58% 15.27%+1.56 +29.1 3
2024-03-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-543.6 1481 1632 15.27% 18.58% 66.15%-1.56 -29.1 0
2024-03-09 Dacia Buiucani D 1-164.0 1669 1283 79.84% 15.44% 4.72%+3.19 -6.8 1
2024-03-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-164.0 1283 1669 4.72% 15.44% 79.84%-3.19 +6.9 1
2024-03-10 Zimbru D 0-057.9 1463 1475 48.70% 19.64% 31.66%+0.43 -1.6 1
2024-03-10 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-057.9 1475 1463 31.66% 19.64% 48.70%-0.43 +1.6 1
2024-03-16 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-172.9 1662 1661 50.37% 19.60% 30.04%+0.52 -1.7 2
2024-03-16 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-172.9 1661 1662 30.04% 19.60% 50.37%-0.52 +1.7 4
2024-03-16 Zimbru L 0-238.5 1290 1476 25.62% 19.43% 54.95%-0.78 -19.8 1
2024-03-16 @ Dacia Buiucani W 2-038.5 1476 1290 54.95% 19.43% 25.62%+0.78 +19.8 4
2024-03-17 Milsami Orhei W 1-046.3 1452 1461 49.08% 19.63% 31.29%+0.45 +12.5 3
2024-03-17 @ Balti L 0-146.3 1461 1452 31.29% 19.63% 49.08%-0.45 -12.5 1
2024-03-30 Balti W 3-042.7 1496 1465 54.10% 19.47% 26.43%+0.73 +29.6 7
2024-03-30 @ Zimbru L 0-342.7 1465 1496 26.43% 19.47% 54.10%-0.73 -29.6 3
2024-03-31 Dacia Buiucani W 3-033.9 1663 1270 80.11% 15.33% 4.56%+3.24 +5.4 7
2024-03-31 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-333.9 1270 1663 4.56% 15.33% 80.11%-3.24 -5.4 1
2024-03-31 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-064.2 1449 1660 22.88% 19.28% 57.84%-0.96 +3.3 2
2024-03-31 @ Milsami Orhei D 0-064.2 1660 1449 57.84% 19.28% 22.88%+0.96 -3.3 3
2024-04-06 Milsami Orhei W 3-043.3 1668 1452 71.04% 17.85% 11.10%+2.02 +13.3 10
2024-04-06 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-343.3 1452 1668 11.10% 17.85% 71.04%-2.02 -13.3 2
2024-04-07 Balti D 1-156.5 1265 1435 27.43% 19.51% 53.06%-0.67 +2.1 2
2024-04-07 @ Dacia Buiucani D 1-156.5 1435 1265 53.06% 19.51% 27.43%+0.67 -2.1 4
2024-04-07 Zimbru W 4-152.5 1657 1526 64.51% 18.76% 16.74%+1.43 +16.6 6
2024-04-07 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-452.5 1526 1657 16.74% 18.76% 64.51%-1.43 -16.6 7
2024-04-13 Balti W 2-044.0 1674 1433 72.63% 17.55% 9.82%+2.19 +8.1 9
2024-04-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-244.0 1433 1674 9.82% 17.55% 72.63%-2.19 -8.1 4
2024-04-13 Milsami Orhei L 1-441.9 1267 1439 27.25% 19.50% 53.24%-0.68 -25.6 2
2024-04-13 @ Dacia Buiucani W 4-141.9 1439 1267 53.24% 19.50% 27.25%+0.68 +25.6 5
2024-04-14 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-170.7 1509 1681 27.18% 19.50% 53.32%-0.69 +2.2 8
2024-04-14 @ Zimbru D 1-170.7 1681 1509 53.32% 19.50% 27.18%+0.69 -2.2 11
2024-04-20 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-345.5 1425 1679 18.81% 18.97% 62.21%-1.25 -21.9 4
2024-04-20 @ Balti W 3-045.5 1679 1425 62.21% 18.97% 18.81%+1.25 +21.9 14
2024-04-21 Dacia Buiucani W 3-033.0 1682 1242 81.88% 14.56% 3.56%+3.58 +4.1 12
2024-04-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-333.0 1242 1682 3.56% 14.56% 81.88%-3.58 -4.1 2
2024-04-21 Milsami Orhei W 3-150.3 1511 1465 55.91% 19.39% 24.70%+0.84 +16.6 11
2024-04-21 @ Zimbru L 1-350.3 1465 1511 24.70% 19.39% 55.91%-0.84 -16.6 5
2024-04-27 Balti W 3-038.6 1448 1403 55.68% 19.40% 24.92%+0.82 +28.1 8
2024-04-27 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-338.6 1403 1448 24.92% 19.40% 55.68%-0.82 -28.1 4
2024-04-27 Dacia Buiucani W 2-032.3 1528 1237 75.48% 16.87% 7.65%+2.53 +6.3 14
2024-04-27 @ Zimbru L 0-232.3 1237 1528 7.65% 16.87% 75.48%-2.53 -6.3 2
2024-04-28 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-162.9 1701 1686 52.15% 19.54% 28.31%+0.62 +10.8 17
2024-04-28 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-262.9 1686 1701 28.31% 19.54% 52.15%-0.62 -10.8 12
2024-05-04 Dacia Buiucani W 7-032.6 1712 1231 83.22% 13.89% 2.89%+3.86 +7.3 20
2024-05-04 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-732.6 1231 1712 2.89% 13.89% 83.22%-3.86 -7.3 2
2024-05-04 Milsami Orhei W 2-153.8 1675 1476 69.89% 18.05% 12.06%+1.90 +5.0 15
2024-05-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-253.8 1476 1675 12.06% 18.05% 69.89%-1.90 -5.0 8
2024-05-04 Zimbru W 2-157.7 1375 1534 28.74% 19.56% 51.70%-0.59 +17.9 7
2024-05-04 @ Balti L 1-257.7 1534 1375 51.70% 19.56% 28.74%+0.59 -17.9 14
2024-05-11 Dacia Buiucani D 2-261.9 1393 1224 67.65% 18.39% 13.97%+1.69 -3.6 8
2024-05-11 @ Balti D 2-261.9 1224 1393 13.97% 18.39% 67.65%-1.69 +3.5 3
2024-05-11 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-170.8 1471 1719 19.35% 19.02% 61.63%-1.21 +3.7 9
2024-05-11 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-170.8 1719 1471 61.63% 19.02% 19.35%+1.21 -3.7 21
2024-05-11 Sheriff Tiraspol W 2-059.8 1516 1680 28.19% 19.54% 52.27%-0.63 +36.1 17
2024-05-11 @ Zimbru L 0-259.8 1680 1516 52.27% 19.54% 28.19%+0.63 -36.1 15
2024-05-18 Balti W 2-148.8 1644 1389 73.48% 17.36% 9.16%+2.28 +3.8 18
2024-05-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-248.8 1389 1644 9.16% 17.36% 73.48%-2.28 -3.8 8
2024-05-18 Dacia Buiucani D 1-157.1 1475 1227 73.04% 17.46% 9.50%+2.23 -5.8 10
2024-05-18 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-157.1 1227 1475 9.50% 17.46% 73.04%-2.23 +5.8 4
2024-05-18 Zimbru W 4-153.4 1716 1552 67.17% 18.45% 14.38%+1.65 +14.4 24
2024-05-18 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-453.4 1552 1716 14.38% 18.45% 67.17%-1.65 -14.4 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2023-12-03 9.81% Dacia Buiucani 1259 2 @ Zimbru 1499 1
2 2023-09-16 15.76% Zimbru 1433 2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1578 0
3 2023-12-03 18.07% @ Floresti 1223 1 Milsami Orhei 1486 0
4 2023-12-03 18.13% @ Balti 1444 3 Sheriff Tiraspol 1706 1
5 2023-08-27 20.92% @ Milsami Orhei 1441 2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1673 0
6 2024-05-11 28.19% @ Zimbru 1516 2 Sheriff Tiraspol 1680 0
7 2023-08-05 28.49% @ Floresti 1218 4 Spartanii Sportul 1379 0
8 2024-05-04 28.74% @ Balti 1375 2 Zimbru 1534 1
9 2023-10-08 31.33% Floresti 1250 3 @ Spartanii Sportul 1241 1
10 2023-08-06 32.44% Milsami Orhei 1429 1 @ Zimbru 1411 0
11 2023-10-07 32.61% Balti 1345 5 @ Dacia Buiucani 1326 1
12 2023-10-21 33.72% @ Balti 1398 3 Milsami Orhei 1518 0
13 2023-08-26 34.86% Dacia Buiucani 1322 4 @ Spartanii Sportul 1286 1
14 2023-11-05 35.08% Zimbru 1493 1 @ Balti 1455 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-08-05 68.20 @ Floresti 4 1218 28.49% Spartanii Sportul 0 1379 51.96% 19.55%
2 2023-10-07 52.70 Balti 5 1345 32.61% @ Dacia Buiucani 1 1326 47.73% 19.66%
3 2023-10-21 47.42 @ Balti 3 1398 33.72% Milsami Orhei 0 1518 46.60% 19.68%
4 2023-09-23 46.01 Petrocub Hincesti 4 1533 47.87% @ Balti 0 1403 32.47% 19.66%
5 2023-09-16 44.87 Zimbru 2 1433 15.76% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1578 65.61% 18.64%
6 2023-08-27 41.08 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1441 20.92% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1673 59.93% 19.15%
7 2023-08-26 39.13 Dacia Buiucani 4 1322 34.86% @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1286 45.45% 19.70%
8 2023-12-03 37.32 @ Balti 3 1444 18.13% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1706 62.97% 18.91%
9 2024-05-11 36.13 @ Zimbru 2 1516 28.19% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1680 52.27% 19.54%
10 2023-08-05 31.05 @ Balti 3 1393 52.51% Dacia Buiucani 0 1375 27.96% 19.53%
11 2024-03-30 29.59 @ Zimbru 3 1496 54.10% Balti 0 1465 26.43% 19.47%
12 2023-10-08 29.56 Floresti 3 1250 31.33% @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1241 49.04% 19.63%
13 2024-03-09 29.07 @ Petrocub Hincesti 5 1632 66.15% Balti 0 1481 15.27% 18.58%
14 2024-04-27 28.12 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1448 55.68% Balti 0 1403 24.92% 19.40%
15 2023-11-11 25.68 Balti 5 1438 60.46% @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1202 20.43% 19.11%
16 2024-04-13 25.62 Milsami Orhei 4 1439 53.24% @ Dacia Buiucani 1 1267 27.25% 19.50%
17 2023-12-03 24.79 Dacia Buiucani 2 1259 9.81% @ Zimbru 1 1499 72.65% 17.54%
18 2023-12-03 22.88 @ Floresti 1 1223 18.07% Milsami Orhei 0 1486 63.02% 18.90%
19 2024-04-20 21.89 Petrocub Hincesti 3 1679 62.21% @ Balti 0 1425 18.81% 18.97%
20 2023-10-01 21.75 Zimbru 3 1467 46.44% @ Dacia Buiucani 1 1348 33.88% 19.68%
21 2023-12-03 19.99 Petrocub Hincesti 7 1612 75.62% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1171 7.54% 16.83%
22 2023-11-25 19.96 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1592 64.20% Balti 0 1464 17.01% 18.79%
23 2024-03-16 19.83 Zimbru 2 1476 54.95% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1290 25.62% 19.43%
24 2024-05-04 17.89 @ Balti 2 1375 28.74% Zimbru 1 1534 51.70% 19.56%
25 2023-08-06 17.73 Milsami Orhei 1 1429 32.44% @ Zimbru 0 1411 47.91% 19.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-03-16 72.9 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1662 50.37% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1661 30.04% 19.60%
2 2024-05-11 70.8 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1471 19.35% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1719 61.63% 19.02%
3 2024-04-14 70.7 @ Zimbru 1 1509 27.18% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1681 53.32% 19.50%
4 2023-11-10 68.1 @ Zimbru 1 1510 38.90% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1592 41.37% 19.73%
5 2023-12-03 67.7 @ Balti 3 1444 18.13% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1706 62.97% 18.91%
6 2023-10-08 67.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1662 59.61% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1581 21.22% 19.17%
7 2023-10-28 66.3 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1471 35.47% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1578 44.82% 19.70%
8 2024-03-31 64.2 @ Milsami Orhei 0 1449 22.88% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1660 57.84% 19.28%
9 2024-03-09 64.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1669 79.84% Dacia Buiucani 1 1283 4.72% 15.44%
10 2024-04-28 62.9 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1701 52.15% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1686 28.31% 19.54%
11 2024-05-11 61.9 @ Balti 2 1393 67.65% Dacia Buiucani 2 1224 13.97% 18.39%
12 2023-09-23 61.4 @ Floresti 2 1254 37.17% Dacia Buiucani 2 1348 43.11% 19.72%
13 2023-08-27 59.8 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1441 20.92% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1673 59.93% 19.15%
14 2024-05-11 59.8 @ Zimbru 2 1516 28.19% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1680 52.27% 19.54%
15 2023-12-03 59.5 Dacia Buiucani 2 1259 9.81% @ Zimbru 1 1499 72.65% 17.54%
16 2023-08-06 58.3 Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1635 40.17% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1561 40.10% 19.73%
17 2024-03-10 57.9 @ Milsami Orhei 0 1463 48.70% Zimbru 0 1475 31.66% 19.64%
18 2023-09-16 57.7 Zimbru 2 1433 15.76% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1578 65.61% 18.64%
19 2024-05-04 57.7 @ Balti 2 1375 28.74% Zimbru 1 1534 51.70% 19.56%
20 2024-05-18 57.1 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1475 73.04% Dacia Buiucani 1 1227 9.50% 17.46%
21 2024-04-07 56.5 @ Dacia Buiucani 1 1265 27.43% Balti 1 1435 53.06% 19.51%
22 2023-09-17 56.3 @ Balti 1 1408 67.04% Spartanii Sportul 1 1246 14.49% 18.47%
23 2023-10-22 56.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1585 76.54% Dacia Buiucani 0 1273 6.89% 16.58%
24 2023-11-04 55.0 @ Dacia Buiucani 1 1265 58.04% Spartanii Sportul 1 1199 22.68% 19.27%
25 2024-05-04 53.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1675 69.89% Milsami Orhei 1 1476 12.06% 18.05%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-12-03 30.2 Petrocub Hincesti 7 1612 75.62% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1171 7.54% 16.83%
2 2023-10-21 30.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1658 82.10% Spartanii Sportul 0 1211 3.45% 14.45%
3 2023-11-04 31.0 @ Petrocub Hincesti 6 1577 76.76% Floresti 0 1261 6.73% 16.51%
4 2023-11-11 31.6 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1467 70.29% Dacia Buiucani 0 1262 11.72% 17.99%
5 2024-04-27 32.3 @ Zimbru 2 1528 75.48% Dacia Buiucani 0 1237 7.65% 16.87%
6 2024-05-04 32.6 @ Petrocub Hincesti 7 1712 83.22% Dacia Buiucani 0 1231 2.89% 13.89%
7 2024-04-21 33.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1682 81.88% Dacia Buiucani 0 1242 3.56% 14.56%
8 2024-03-31 33.9 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1663 80.11% Dacia Buiucani 0 1270 4.56% 15.33%
9 2023-11-12 34.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1684 75.47% @ Floresti 0 1246 7.65% 16.88%
10 2023-08-19 35.4 @ Zimbru 2 1406 62.12% Spartanii Sportul 0 1301 18.90% 18.98%
11 2023-10-29 35.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1663 72.28% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1281 10.10% 17.62%
12 2023-08-20 36.0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1661 77.28% Dacia Buiucani 0 1334 6.37% 16.35%
13 2023-09-16 36.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 5 1632 79.27% Floresti 1 1260 5.07% 15.66%
14 2023-10-28 36.5 Zimbru 1 1486 64.57% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1206 16.68% 18.75%
15 2023-11-25 36.5 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1481 76.19% Spartanii Sportul 1 1176 7.13% 16.67%
16 2023-11-11 37.0 Balti 5 1438 60.46% @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1202 20.43% 19.11%
17 2023-09-30 37.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1650 75.59% Balti 0 1357 7.57% 16.84%
18 2023-08-05 37.6 @ Balti 3 1393 52.51% Dacia Buiucani 0 1375 27.96% 19.53%
19 2024-03-16 38.5 Zimbru 2 1476 54.95% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1290 25.62% 19.43%
20 2024-04-27 38.6 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1448 55.68% Balti 0 1403 24.92% 19.40%
21 2023-08-27 38.7 Petrocub Hincesti 1 1571 66.68% @ Floresti 0 1267 14.81% 18.51%
22 2023-08-13 39.8 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1650 69.35% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1311 12.51% 18.14%
23 2023-10-21 39.8 @ Zimbru 3 1477 69.77% Floresti 1 1280 12.16% 18.07%
24 2023-10-01 40.4 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1503 73.14% Floresti 1 1254 9.42% 17.44%
25 2023-08-20 41.7 @ Balti 2 1413 65.28% Floresti 1 1273 16.04% 18.67%