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2024-25 Super Liga Season

86 games

Final

Champion

Sheriff Tiraspol

56 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Milsami Orhei

9.40 points above expected

42 points · 32.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Balti

7.88 points below expected

28 points · 35.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 14 11 3 0 36 33 6 +27 28.62 +7.38
2 Zimbru 14 8 1 5 25 32 16 +16 25.12 -0.12
3 Petrocub Hincesti 14 6 5 3 23 20 9 +11 27.66 -4.66
4 Balti 14 6 5 3 23 18 9 +9 19.70 +3.30
5 Milsami Orhei 14 6 3 5 21 30 18 +12 20.92 +0.08
6 Spartanii Sportul 14 3 5 6 14 12 17 -5 12.38 +1.62
7 Dacia Buiucani 14 2 5 7 11 8 19 -11 12.48 -1.48
8 Floresti 14 0 1 13 1 0 59 -59 7.65 -6.65
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 16 8 0 56 50 12 +38 20.67 +35.33
2 Zimbru 24 14 3 7 45 54 25 +29 14.55 +30.45
3 Milsami Orhei 24 12 6 6 42 55 26 +29 11.60 +30.40
4 Petrocub Hincesti 24 10 7 7 37 40 26 +14 17.05 +19.95
5 Balti 24 7 7 10 28 27 33 -6 12.88 +15.12
6 Spartanii Sportul 24 3 7 14 16 21 55 -34 5.83 +10.17

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Milsami Orhei 42 32.60 +9.40
2 Zimbru 45 39.55 +5.45
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 56 56.67 -0.67
4 Dacia Buiucani 11 12.48 -1.48
5 Petrocub Hincesti 37 40.05 -3.05

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Balti 28 35.88 -7.88
2 Floresti 1 7.65 -6.65
3 Spartanii Sportul 16 19.83 -3.83
4 Petrocub Hincesti 37 40.05 -3.05
5 Dacia Buiucani 11 12.48 -1.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Milsami Orhei 5 Nov 23 – Apr 6 1 in 128
2 Balti 4 Aug 18 – Sep 15 1 in 64
3 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 Aug 4 – Aug 25 1 in 22
4 Zimbru 3 Aug 4 – Aug 18 1 in 6
5 Spartanii Sportul 1 Aug 17 – Aug 17 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Floresti 13 Aug 9 – Nov 23 1 in 181
2 Spartanii Sportul 8 Nov 10 – Apr 19 1 in 26
3 Dacia Buiucani 4 Aug 17 – Sep 14 1 in 13
4 Zimbru 2 Sep 28 – Oct 6 1 in 10
5 Milsami Orhei 2 Aug 11 – Aug 18 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sheriff Tiraspol 24 Aug 4 – May 18 1 in 76
2 Milsami Orhei 8 Nov 9 – Apr 19 1 in 28
3 Dacia Buiucani 3 Oct 5 – Oct 27 1 in 19
4 Spartanii Sportul 3 Oct 19 – Nov 3 1 in 8
5 Balti 5 Aug 10 – Sep 15 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Zimbru 4 Sep 14 – Oct 6 1 in 14
2 Petrocub Hincesti 3 Sep 1 – Sep 22 1 in 14
3 Balti 8 Mar 29 – May 18 1 in 11
4 Spartanii Sportul 16 Oct 5 – May 18 1 in 11
5 Floresti 14 Aug 3 – Nov 23 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Sheriff Tiraspol 1685 56 +22 11 10.5 +0.5
Zimbru 1605 45 +69 10 7.8 +2.2
Milsami Orhei 1593 42 +12 8 8.8 -0.8
Petrocub Hincesti 1506 37 -3 7 7.5 -0.5
Balti 1310 28 -48 2 4.7 -2.7
Spartanii Sportul 1111 16 -51 2 2.0 -0.0
Dacia Buiucani 1220 11 +47 6 4.5 +1.5
Floresti 952 1 -74 0 2.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BAL DB FLO MO PH ST SS ZIM
Balti —
0-2-0
3.95
2-0-0
4.50
1-1-2
4.25
1-1-2
3.48
0-1-3
2.43
2-2-0
7.98
1-0-3
3.54
Dacia Buiucani
0-2-0
1.54
 —
2-0-0
3.73
0-1-1
1.44
0-1-1
0.86
0-0-2
0.91
0-1-1
2.58
0-0-2
1.01
Floresti
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
1.73
 —
0-0-2
1.13
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
0.52
0-1-1
2.38
0-0-2
1.01
Milsami Orhei
2-1-1
6.69
1-1-0
4.05
2-0-0
4.40
 —
1-0-3
4.70
0-3-1
3.13
3-1-0
8.65
3-0-1
4.83
Petrocub Hincesti
2-1-1
7.46
1-1-0
4.70
2-0-0
4.85
3-0-1
6.22
 —
0-2-2
4.53
2-2-0
9.19
0-1-3
6.09
Sheriff Tiraspol
3-1-0
8.59
2-0-0
4.64
2-0-0
5.16
1-3-0
7.83
2-2-0
6.39
 —
4-0-0
9.70
2-2-0
7.00
Spartanii Sportul
0-2-2
2.99
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
3.11
0-1-3
2.41
0-2-2
1.90
0-0-4
1.49
 —
1-0-3
2.09
Zimbru
3-0-1
7.43
2-0-0
4.52
2-0-0
4.54
1-0-3
6.10
3-1-0
4.82
0-2-2
3.96
3-0-1
9.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +8.5
Allowed 0.53 -8.2
Differential 0.90 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.47%6.40%6.40%3.49%3.49%5.81%36.05%
16.40%11.63%3.49%4.07%0.58%1.16%27.33%
26.40%3.49%2.33%1.74%0.58%—14.53%
33.49%4.07%1.74%1.16%——10.47%
43.49%0.58%0.58%———4.65%
5+5.81%1.16%————6.98%
Total36.05%27.33%14.53%10.47%4.65%6.98%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.72 1.72 2.82
CV 1.16 1.16 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 86

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%8.33%4.17%4.17%4.17%45.83%
14.17%12.50%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
28.33%4.17%————12.50%
3——4.17%4.17%——8.33%
44.17%—————4.17%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total33.33%29.17%16.67%12.50%4.17%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.12 1.38 -0.25
SD 1.42 1.41 2.25
CV 1.27 1.02 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%21.43%14.29%——7.14%64.29%
1—14.29%—7.14%——21.43%
27.14%—————7.14%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%35.71%14.29%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.57 1.36 -0.79
SD 0.94 1.86 2.29
CV 1.64 1.37 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—14.29%14.29%21.43%42.86%100.00%
1———————
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%—14.29%14.29%21.43%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.00 4.21 -4.21
SD 0.00 2.22 2.22
CV — 0.53 —
Max 0 8 +0
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—12.50%—4.17%—25.00%
1—12.50%4.17%—4.17%—20.83%
28.33%8.33%4.17%———20.83%
34.17%4.17%————8.33%
4———————
5+16.67%8.33%————25.00%
Total37.50%33.33%20.83%—8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.08 +1.21
SD 2.22 1.18 2.96
CV 0.97 1.09 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%—4.17%——20.83%
14.17%16.67%4.17%4.17%—4.17%33.33%
212.50%4.17%4.17%4.17%——25.00%
38.33%4.17%————12.50%
4———————
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total41.67%33.33%8.33%12.50%—4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.08 +0.58
SD 1.52 1.32 2.30
CV 0.91 1.21 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—————12.50%
120.83%16.67%————37.50%
24.17%8.33%4.17%———16.67%
34.17%8.33%————12.50%
412.50%—4.17%———16.67%
5+4.17%—————4.17%
Total58.33%33.33%8.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 0.50 +1.58
SD 1.82 0.66 1.91
CV 0.87 1.32 —
Max 8 2 +8
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%12.50%—8.33%4.17%8.33%41.67%
14.17%12.50%4.17%12.50%—4.17%37.50%
24.17%—4.17%4.17%——12.50%
3——4.17%4.17%——8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%25.00%12.50%29.17%4.17%12.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.88 2.29 -1.42
SD 0.95 1.85 2.15
CV 1.08 0.81 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 24

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—8.33%———16.67%
112.50%4.17%8.33%4.17%——29.17%
24.17%——4.17%4.17%—12.50%
34.17%12.50%4.17%———20.83%
48.33%4.17%————12.50%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total45.83%20.83%20.83%8.33%4.17%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 1.04 +1.21
SD 1.98 1.20 2.59
CV 0.88 1.15 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 24

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Sheriff Tiraspol 1685 56 28.62 +27.38 100.0% 16 20 26 29 32 35 36
Zimbru 1605 45 25.12 +19.88 54.0% 16 17 22 25 28 33 36
Milsami Orhei 1593 42 20.92 +21.08 55.0% 11 14 18 21 24 28 32
Petrocub Hincesti 1506 37 27.66 +9.34 14.0% 17 20 25 28 30 34 35
Balti 1310 28 19.70 +8.30 78.0% 8 12 17 20 23 26 29
Dacia Buiucani 1220 11 12.48 -1.48 39.0% 3 6 10 13 15 19 21
Spartanii Sportul 1111 16 12.38 +3.62 75.0% 6 7 10 12 14 18 22
Floresti 952 1 7.65 -6.65 0.0% 2 3 5 7 9 13 16

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 10.5% * Clear Edge: 10.5% to 16% * Strong Edge: 16% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.28%
Strong Edge
45.35%25.58%29.07%
Elo Value
Home Edge
137 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
057.07400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.37 * Comfortable: 0.37 to 0.52 * Runaway: 0.52 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
45%
Sheriff Tiraspol, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Comfortable
00.160.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.19 * Some Luck: 3.19 to 4.78 * Lucky: 4.78 to 6.38 * Wild Swing: 6.38 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.64 * Close: 0.64 to 0.96 * Off: 0.96 to 1.28 * Way Off: 1.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.12 points
Some Luck
03.9910
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Close
00.802
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
100.00%
Sheriff Tiraspol
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
0.00%
Floresti
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.23 * Even: 0.23 to 0.26 * Top-Heavy: 0.26 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 2.5 * Moderate Separation: 2.5 to 2.7 * Strong Separation: 2.7 to 2.95 * Wide Separation: 2.95 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 72.5% * Slight Edge: 72.5% to 81% * Clear Edge: 81% to 85.5% * Wide Edge: 85.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 96% * Clear Edge: 96% to 98% * Strong Edge: 98% to 99% * Dominant: 99% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 17% * Occasional: 17% to 22% * Frequent: 22% to 26.5% * Very Frequent: 26.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.34
Lopsided
00.230.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 230.40
3.07
Wide Separation
12.52.953.75
Interquartile Edge
85%
Clear Edge
50%72.5%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
29%
Very Frequent
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.47 * Slight Separation: 0.47 to 0.52 * Notable Separation: 0.52 to 0.56 * Lopsided: 0.56 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.57 * Some Carryover: 0.57 to 0.75 * Strong Carryover: 0.75 to 0.84 * Near-Lock: 0.84 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 14.5% * As Expected: 14.5% to 16.5% * Upset-Prone: 16.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 11.5% * As Expected: 11.5% to 13.5% * Shaky Favorites: 13.5% to 16% * Very Shaky: 16% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.56
Notable Separation
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.26
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Strong Carryover
00.570.751
Upset Rate
Expected
13%
Chalky
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
13%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.68
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.33
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.146
Well Within Noise
00.1700.4

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team12345678
Sheriff Tiraspol45.00%37.00%12.00%2.00%4.00%———
Zimbru20.00%19.00%32.00%17.00%9.00%3.00%——
Milsami Orhei4.00%6.00%16.00%35.00%31.00%4.00%4.00%—
Petrocub Hincesti29.00%33.00%25.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%——
Balti2.00%5.00%14.00%31.00%30.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%
Spartanii Sportul——1.00%2.00%9.00%37.00%40.00%11.00%
Dacia Buiucani———5.00%12.00%36.00%32.00%15.00%
Floresti————1.00%7.00%20.00%72.00%
Team123456
Sheriff Tiraspol55.38%24.32%12.02%5.36%2.31%0.61%
Zimbru11.64%21.92%24.14%21.51%15.14%5.65%
Milsami Orhei4.09%9.52%16.88%24.80%30.55%14.16%
Petrocub Hincesti22.27%29.43%22.45%14.46%8.71%2.68%
Balti6.52%13.77%21.45%25.71%22.78%9.77%
Spartanii Sportul0.10%1.04%3.06%8.16%20.51%67.13%
Dacia Buiucani——————
Floresti——————

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 94.00% 6.00%
Dacia Buiucani 53.00% 47.00%
Floresti 8.00% 92.00%
Milsami Orhei 96.00% 4.00%
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Spartanii Sportul 49.00% 51.00%
Zimbru 100% —

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Qualified for relegation playoff
Balti 100% —
Dacia Buiucani — 100%
Floresti — 100%
Milsami Orhei 100% —
Petrocub Hincesti 100% —
Sheriff Tiraspol 100% —
Spartanii Sportul 100% —
Zimbru 100% —

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-08-03 Spartanii Sportul D 0-048.2 1261 1208 50.80% 26.87% 22.33%+0.80 -3.7 1
2024-08-03 @ Floresti D 0-048.2 1208 1261 22.33% 26.87% 50.80%-0.80 +3.7 1
2024-08-04 Balti W 4-037.9 1437 1342 55.39% 26.35% 18.26%+1.11 +43.0 3
2024-08-04 @ Zimbru L 0-437.9 1342 1437 18.26% 26.35% 55.39%-1.11 -42.9 0
2024-08-04 Dacia Buiucani W 2-035.4 1512 1248 68.85% 23.03% 8.12%+2.34 +10.5 3
2024-08-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-235.4 1248 1512 8.12% 23.03% 68.85%-2.34 -10.5 0
2024-08-09 Floresti FW35.0 1578 1258 72.20% 21.60% 6.20%+2.75 +0.0 3
2024-08-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti FL35.0 1258 1578 6.20% 21.60% 72.20%-2.75 +0.0 1
2024-08-10 Dacia Buiucani D 0-048.5 1299 1238 51.68% 26.79% 21.53%+0.86 -3.9 1
2024-08-10 @ Balti D 0-048.5 1238 1299 21.53% 26.79% 51.68%-0.86 +3.9 1
2024-08-11 Milsami Orhei W 4-145.9 1480 1394 54.38% 26.48% 19.13%+1.04 +28.8 6
2024-08-11 @ Zimbru L 1-445.9 1394 1480 19.13% 26.48% 54.38%-1.04 -28.8 0
2024-08-11 Spartanii Sportul W 1-035.5 1523 1212 71.65% 21.85% 6.50%+2.68 +4.4 6
2024-08-11 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-135.5 1212 1523 6.50% 21.85% 71.65%-2.68 -4.4 1
2024-08-17 Spartanii Sportul L 0-147.6 1242 1208 48.56% 27.05% 24.39%+0.66 -25.9 1
2024-08-17 @ Dacia Buiucani W 1-047.6 1208 1242 24.39% 27.05% 48.56%-0.66 +26.0 4
2024-08-18 Balti L 0-248.5 1365 1295 52.76% 26.67% 20.56%+0.93 -52.7 0
2024-08-18 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-048.5 1295 1365 20.56% 26.67% 52.76%-0.93 +52.6 4
2024-08-18 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-057.1 1527 1578 37.32% 27.45% 35.23%+0.04 +20.2 9
2024-08-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-157.1 1578 1527 35.23% 27.45% 37.32%-0.04 -20.2 3
2024-08-18 Zimbru L 0-835.4 1258 1509 15.16% 25.75% 59.09%-1.41 -70.2 1
2024-08-18 @ Floresti W 8-035.4 1509 1258 59.09% 25.75% 15.16%+1.41 +70.2 9
2024-08-24 Spartanii Sportul W 1-038.3 1347 1234 57.15% 26.09% 16.76%+1.24 +11.2 7
2024-08-24 @ Balti L 0-138.3 1234 1347 16.76% 26.09% 57.15%-1.24 -11.2 4
2024-08-25 Dacia Buiucani W 2-034.3 1558 1216 73.40% 21.01% 5.59%+2.91 +7.0 6
2024-08-25 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-234.3 1216 1558 5.59% 21.01% 73.40%-2.91 -7.0 1
2024-08-25 Floresti W 6-033.5 1313 1187 58.24% 25.90% 15.86%+1.33 +55.6 3
2024-08-25 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-633.5 1187 1313 15.86% 25.90% 58.24%-1.33 -55.6 1
2024-08-25 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-266.4 1579 1547 48.33% 27.07% 24.60%+0.65 -24.4 9
2024-08-25 @ Zimbru W 2-166.4 1547 1579 24.60% 27.07% 48.33%-0.65 +24.4 12
2024-08-31 Milsami Orhei D 1-160.5 1572 1368 64.68% 24.43% 10.89%+1.89 -6.8 13
2024-08-31 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-160.5 1368 1572 10.89% 24.43% 64.68%-1.89 +6.8 4
2024-08-31 Zimbru L 0-137.5 1209 1555 9.59% 23.85% 66.56%-2.11 -6.6 1
2024-08-31 @ Dacia Buiucani W 1-037.5 1555 1209 66.56% 23.85% 9.59%+2.11 +6.6 12
2024-09-01 Balti L 0-434.7 1132 1358 17.10% 26.15% 56.76%-1.23 -40.6 1
2024-09-01 @ Floresti W 4-034.7 1358 1132 56.76% 26.15% 17.10%+1.23 +40.6 10
2024-09-01 Spartanii Sportul D 2-262.0 1565 1222 73.41% 21.01% 5.58%+2.91 -6.5 7
2024-09-01 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 2-262.0 1222 1565 5.58% 21.01% 73.41%-2.91 +6.5 5
2024-09-14 Dacia Buiucani W 7-032.4 1375 1202 62.36% 25.05% 12.59%+1.67 +52.1 7
2024-09-14 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-732.4 1202 1375 12.59% 25.05% 62.36%-1.67 -52.1 1
2024-09-14 Spartanii Sportul L 2-365.5 1562 1229 72.88% 21.27% 5.85%+2.84 -33.3 12
2024-09-14 @ Zimbru W 3-265.5 1229 1562 5.85% 21.27% 72.88%-2.84 +33.3 8
2024-09-15 Petrocub Hincesti W 2-160.7 1399 1559 23.43% 26.97% 49.59%-0.75 +24.9 13
2024-09-15 @ Balti L 1-260.7 1559 1399 49.59% 26.97% 23.43%+0.75 -24.9 7
2024-09-15 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-430.5 1091 1565 5.22% 20.63% 74.15%-3.03 -12.4 1
2024-09-15 @ Floresti W 4-030.5 1565 1091 74.15% 20.63% 5.22%+3.03 +12.4 16
2024-09-21 Balti W 1-046.4 1577 1424 60.72% 25.42% 13.86%+1.53 +9.4 19
2024-09-21 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-146.4 1424 1577 13.86% 25.42% 60.72%-1.53 -9.4 13
2024-09-21 Floresti W 2-037.5 1150 1079 52.78% 26.67% 20.55%+0.93 +25.0 4
2024-09-21 @ Dacia Buiucani L 0-237.5 1079 1150 20.55% 26.67% 52.78%-0.93 -25.0 1
2024-09-22 Milsami Orhei L 1-246.0 1262 1427 22.85% 26.92% 50.23%-0.79 -13.6 8
2024-09-22 @ Spartanii Sportul W 2-146.0 1427 1262 50.23% 26.92% 22.85%+0.79 +13.6 10
2024-09-22 Zimbru D 0-060.0 1534 1528 45.01% 27.26% 27.73%+0.45 -2.2 8
2024-09-22 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 0-060.0 1528 1534 27.73% 27.26% 45.01%-0.45 +2.2 13
2024-09-28 Floresti W 2-034.2 1249 1054 64.03% 24.61% 11.35%+1.83 +14.7 11
2024-09-28 @ Spartanii Sportul L 0-234.2 1054 1249 11.35% 24.61% 64.03%-1.83 -14.7 1
2024-09-28 Milsami Orhei W 2-151.8 1532 1441 54.86% 26.42% 18.72%+1.07 +11.6 11
2024-09-28 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-251.8 1441 1532 18.72% 26.42% 54.86%-1.07 -11.6 10
2024-09-28 Zimbru W 2-052.7 1415 1530 28.52% 27.30% 44.18%-0.43 +45.2 16
2024-09-28 @ Balti L 0-252.7 1530 1415 44.18% 27.30% 28.52%+0.43 -45.2 13
2024-09-29 Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-339.8 1175 1587 7.01% 22.26% 70.72%-2.58 -7.8 4
2024-09-29 @ Dacia Buiucani W 3-139.8 1587 1175 70.72% 22.26% 7.01%+2.58 +7.8 22
2024-10-05 Balti D 1-153.7 1167 1460 12.44% 25.00% 62.57%-1.71 +6.2 5
2024-10-05 @ Dacia Buiucani D 1-153.7 1460 1167 62.57% 25.00% 12.44%+1.71 -6.2 17
2024-10-05 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-140.1 1263 1594 10.32% 24.19% 65.49%-1.99 -7.1 11
2024-10-05 @ Spartanii Sportul W 1-040.1 1594 1263 65.49% 24.19% 10.32%+1.99 +7.1 25
2024-10-06 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-528.9 1039 1543 4.52% 19.80% 75.68%-3.25 -13.0 1
2024-10-06 @ Floresti W 5-028.9 1543 1039 75.68% 19.80% 4.52%+3.25 +13.0 14
2024-10-06 Zimbru W 3-154.0 1429 1485 36.63% 27.46% 35.91%+0.01 +33.4 13
2024-10-06 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-354.0 1485 1429 35.91% 27.46% 36.63%-0.01 -33.4 13
2024-10-19 Dacia Buiucani D 0-048.2 1256 1173 54.04% 26.53% 19.44%+1.02 -4.6 12
2024-10-19 @ Spartanii Sportul D 0-048.2 1173 1256 19.44% 26.53% 54.04%-1.02 +4.6 6
2024-10-19 Milsami Orhei D 0-054.7 1454 1463 43.10% 27.34% 29.56%+0.35 -1.7 18
2024-10-19 @ Balti D 0-054.7 1463 1454 29.56% 27.34% 43.10%-0.35 +1.7 14
2024-10-19 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.1 1556 1602 38.13% 27.45% 34.42%+0.08 -0.4 15
2024-10-19 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-167.1 1602 1556 34.42% 27.45% 38.13%-0.08 +0.4 26
2024-10-20 Floresti W 4-028.5 1452 1026 77.51% 18.73% 3.76%+3.51 +8.6 16
2024-10-20 @ Zimbru L 0-428.5 1026 1452 3.76% 18.73% 77.51%-3.51 -8.6 1
2024-10-26 Balti D 1-154.0 1252 1452 19.38% 26.52% 54.11%-1.04 +4.1 13
2024-10-26 @ Spartanii Sportul D 1-154.0 1452 1252 54.11% 26.52% 19.38%+1.04 -4.1 19
2024-10-26 Milsami Orhei L 0-529.4 1018 1464 5.94% 21.35% 72.71%-2.83 -17.6 1
2024-10-26 @ Floresti W 5-029.4 1464 1018 72.71% 21.35% 5.94%+2.83 +17.5 17
2024-10-27 Petrocub Hincesti D 0-051.4 1178 1556 8.25% 23.11% 68.64%-2.33 +8.6 7
2024-10-27 @ Dacia Buiucani D 0-051.4 1556 1178 68.64% 23.11% 8.25%+2.33 -8.6 16
2024-10-27 Zimbru W 4-256.2 1602 1460 59.69% 25.63% 14.67%+1.44 +14.5 29
2024-10-27 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 2-456.2 1460 1602 14.67% 25.63% 59.69%-1.44 -14.5 16
2024-10-30 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-253.2 1482 1547 35.32% 27.45% 37.23%-0.06 -38.1 17
2024-10-30 @ Milsami Orhei W 2-053.2 1547 1482 37.23% 27.45% 35.32%+0.06 +38.1 19
2024-11-02 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-448.2 1444 1616 22.08% 26.84% 51.08%-0.84 -50.3 17
2024-11-02 @ Milsami Orhei W 4-048.2 1616 1444 51.08% 26.84% 22.08%+0.84 +50.3 32
2024-11-03 Dacia Buiucani W 1-035.2 1446 1187 68.54% 23.15% 8.31%+2.30 +5.7 19
2024-11-03 @ Zimbru L 0-135.2 1187 1446 8.31% 23.15% 68.54%-2.30 -5.7 7
2024-11-03 Floresti W 5-027.6 1448 1000 78.50% 18.12% 3.38%+3.67 +9.4 22
2024-11-03 @ Balti L 0-527.6 1000 1448 3.38% 18.12% 78.50%-3.67 -9.4 1
2024-11-03 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-157.4 1256 1585 10.41% 24.23% 65.37%-1.98 +6.9 14
2024-11-03 @ Spartanii Sportul D 1-157.4 1585 1256 65.37% 24.23% 10.41%+1.98 -6.9 20
2024-11-09 Floresti W 8-025.6 1667 991 86.81% 12.10% 1.10%+5.33 +4.1 35
2024-11-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-825.6 991 1667 1.10% 12.10% 86.81%-5.33 -4.1 1
2024-11-09 Milsami Orhei D 1-152.9 1181 1394 18.27% 26.35% 55.38%-1.13 +4.4 8
2024-11-09 @ Dacia Buiucani D 1-152.9 1394 1181 55.38% 26.35% 18.27%+1.13 -4.4 18
2024-11-10 Balti W 1-048.5 1578 1457 57.85% 25.97% 16.18%+1.30 +10.8 23
2024-11-10 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-148.5 1457 1578 16.18% 25.97% 57.85%-1.30 -10.8 22
2024-11-10 Zimbru L 1-344.4 1263 1452 20.43% 26.66% 52.91%-0.96 -21.5 14
2024-11-10 @ Spartanii Sportul W 3-144.4 1452 1263 52.91% 26.66% 20.43%+0.96 +21.5 22
2024-11-23 Dacia Buiucani L 0-336.0 987 1185 19.53% 26.54% 53.93%-1.03 -34.8 1
2024-11-23 @ Floresti W 3-036.0 1185 987 53.93% 26.54% 19.53%+1.03 +34.8 11
2024-11-23 Petrocub Hincesti W 1-058.3 1473 1589 28.54% 27.30% 44.17%-0.43 +24.0 25
2024-11-23 @ Zimbru L 0-158.3 1589 1473 44.17% 27.30% 28.54%+0.43 -24.0 23
2024-11-23 Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-062.2 1446 1671 17.27% 26.18% 56.55%-1.22 +5.3 23
2024-11-23 @ Balti D 0-062.2 1671 1446 56.55% 26.18% 17.27%+1.22 -5.3 36
2024-11-23 Spartanii Sportul W 3-035.2 1389 1241 60.27% 25.52% 14.21%+1.49 +26.3 21
2024-11-23 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-335.2 1241 1389 14.21% 25.52% 60.27%-1.49 -26.3 14

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-03-08 Milsami Orhei L 1-260.3 1497 1415 53.93% 26.54% 19.53%+1.01 -26.9 0
2025-03-08 @ Zimbru W 2-160.3 1415 1497 19.53% 26.54% 53.93%-1.01 +26.8 3
2025-03-09 Balti W 3-045.6 1565 1452 57.12% 26.09% 16.78%+1.24 +30.6 3
2025-03-09 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-345.6 1452 1565 16.78% 26.09% 57.12%-1.24 -30.6 0
2025-03-09 Spartanii Sportul W 3-034.3 1666 1215 78.64% 18.03% 3.33%+3.69 +5.7 3
2025-03-09 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-334.3 1215 1666 3.33% 18.03% 78.64%-3.69 -5.7 0
2025-03-15 Zimbru D 0-063.4 1671 1470 64.50% 24.48% 11.01%+1.88 -7.5 4
2025-03-15 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-063.4 1470 1671 11.01% 24.48% 64.50%-1.88 +7.5 1
2025-03-16 Balti L 2-348.4 1209 1421 18.33% 26.36% 55.31%-1.13 -10.8 0
2025-03-16 @ Spartanii Sportul W 3-248.4 1421 1209 55.31% 26.36% 18.33%+1.13 +10.8 3
2025-03-16 Petrocub Hincesti W 5-159.2 1442 1596 24.12% 27.03% 48.85%-0.70 +77.8 6
2025-03-16 @ Milsami Orhei L 1-559.2 1596 1442 48.85% 27.03% 24.12%+0.70 -77.8 3
2025-03-29 Milsami Orhei L 0-249.3 1432 1520 32.11% 27.41% 40.48%-0.23 -35.5 3
2025-03-29 @ Balti W 2-049.3 1520 1432 40.48% 27.41% 32.11%+0.23 +35.5 9
2025-03-29 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.8 1518 1664 24.96% 27.10% 47.95%-0.65 +2.6 4
2025-03-29 @ Petrocub Hincesti D 1-167.8 1664 1518 47.95% 27.10% 24.96%+0.65 -2.6 5
2025-03-30 Spartanii Sportul W 3-138.8 1478 1198 69.81% 22.65% 7.54%+2.45 +8.4 4
2025-03-30 @ Zimbru L 1-338.8 1198 1478 7.54% 22.65% 69.81%-2.45 -8.4 0
2025-04-05 Balti W 2-150.8 1661 1396 68.89% 23.02% 8.10%+2.34 +5.2 8
2025-04-05 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-250.8 1396 1661 8.10% 23.02% 68.89%-2.34 -5.2 3
2025-04-06 Milsami Orhei L 1-635.8 1190 1556 8.74% 23.40% 67.86%-2.25 -21.9 0
2025-04-06 @ Spartanii Sportul W 6-135.8 1556 1190 67.86% 23.40% 8.74%+2.25 +21.9 12
2025-04-06 Petrocub Hincesti W 3-262.1 1486 1521 39.70% 27.43% 32.87%+0.17 +17.1 7
2025-04-06 @ Zimbru L 2-362.1 1521 1486 32.87% 27.43% 39.70%-0.17 -17.1 4
2025-04-12 Spartanii Sportul W 3-137.8 1503 1168 73.02% 21.20% 5.78%+2.86 +6.3 7
2025-04-12 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 1-337.8 1168 1503 5.78% 21.20% 73.02%-2.86 -6.3 0
2025-04-12 Zimbru L 0-246.4 1391 1503 28.97% 27.32% 43.72%-0.40 -32.8 3
2025-04-12 @ Balti W 2-046.4 1503 1391 43.72% 27.32% 28.97%+0.40 +32.8 10
2025-04-13 Milsami Orhei D 2-274.2 1666 1578 54.67% 26.45% 18.88%+1.06 -3.2 9
2025-04-13 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 2-274.2 1578 1666 18.88% 26.45% 54.67%-1.06 +3.2 13
2025-04-19 Petrocub Hincesti D 1-157.3 1358 1510 24.32% 27.05% 48.63%-0.69 +2.8 4
2025-04-19 @ Balti D 1-157.3 1510 1358 48.63% 27.05% 24.32%+0.69 -2.8 8
2025-04-19 Spartanii Sportul W 4-031.3 1663 1162 80.77% 16.62% 2.60%+4.06 +5.6 12
2025-04-19 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-431.3 1162 1663 2.60% 16.62% 80.77%-4.06 -5.6 0
2025-04-19 Zimbru W 2-052.4 1581 1536 49.79% 26.96% 23.25%+0.74 +27.7 16
2025-04-19 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-252.4 1536 1581 23.25% 26.96% 49.79%-0.74 -27.7 10
2025-04-26 Milsami Orhei W 2-058.2 1507 1608 30.37% 27.37% 42.26%-0.32 +43.6 11
2025-04-26 @ Petrocub Hincesti L 0-258.2 1608 1507 42.26% 27.37% 30.37%+0.32 -43.6 16
2025-04-26 Sheriff Tiraspol D 1-167.8 1509 1669 23.37% 26.97% 49.66%-0.75 +3.0 11
2025-04-26 @ Zimbru D 1-167.8 1669 1509 49.66% 26.97% 23.37%+0.75 -3.0 13
2025-04-26 Spartanii Sportul D 3-361.8 1361 1156 64.81% 24.39% 10.80%+1.91 -4.2 5
2025-04-26 @ Balti D 3-361.8 1156 1361 10.80% 24.39% 64.81%-1.91 +4.2 1
2025-05-03 Balti W 5-038.4 1565 1357 65.03% 24.33% 10.64%+1.93 +32.2 19
2025-05-03 @ Milsami Orhei L 0-538.4 1357 1565 10.64% 24.33% 65.03%-1.93 -32.2 5
2025-05-04 Petrocub Hincesti W 3-157.6 1666 1551 57.29% 26.07% 16.65%+1.25 +18.1 16
2025-05-04 @ Sheriff Tiraspol L 1-357.6 1551 1666 16.65% 26.07% 57.29%-1.25 -18.1 11
2025-05-04 Spartanii Sportul W 6-029.9 1512 1160 73.87% 20.77% 5.35%+2.97 +18.6 14
2025-05-04 @ Zimbru L 0-629.9 1160 1512 5.35% 20.77% 73.87%-2.97 -18.6 1
2025-05-10 Sheriff Tiraspol L 0-144.7 1325 1684 9.02% 23.55% 67.43%-2.20 -6.2 5
2025-05-10 @ Balti W 1-044.7 1684 1325 67.43% 23.55% 9.02%+2.20 +6.2 19
2025-05-10 Spartanii Sportul D 1-157.1 1597 1142 78.84% 17.90% 3.26%+3.73 -9.6 20
2025-05-10 @ Milsami Orhei D 1-157.1 1142 1597 3.26% 17.90% 78.84%-3.73 +9.6 2
2025-05-10 Zimbru L 0-356.0 1532 1530 44.59% 27.28% 28.13%+0.43 -66.1 11
2025-05-10 @ Petrocub Hincesti W 3-056.0 1530 1532 28.13% 27.28% 44.59%-0.43 +66.1 17
2025-05-18 Balti W 3-144.1 1596 1318 69.71% 22.69% 7.60%+2.44 +8.5 20
2025-05-18 @ Zimbru L 1-344.1 1318 1596 7.60% 22.69% 69.71%-2.44 -8.5 5
2025-05-18 Milsami Orhei D 0-065.8 1690 1587 56.07% 26.25% 17.68%+1.16 -5.1 20
2025-05-18 @ Sheriff Tiraspol D 0-065.8 1587 1690 17.68% 26.25% 56.07%-1.16 +5.2 21
2025-05-18 Petrocub Hincesti L 0-632.3 1151 1466 11.16% 24.54% 64.31%-1.88 -40.1 2
2025-05-18 @ Spartanii Sportul W 6-032.3 1466 1151 64.31% 24.54% 11.16%+1.88 +40.1 14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-09-14 5.85% Spartanii Sportul 1229 3 @ Zimbru 1562 2
2 2025-03-08 19.53% Milsami Orhei 1415 2 @ Zimbru 1497 1
3 2024-08-18 20.56% Balti 1295 2 @ Milsami Orhei 1365 0
4 2024-09-15 23.43% @ Balti 1399 2 Petrocub Hincesti 1559 1
5 2025-03-16 24.12% @ Milsami Orhei 1442 5 Petrocub Hincesti 1596 1
6 2024-08-17 24.39% Spartanii Sportul 1208 1 @ Dacia Buiucani 1242 0
7 2024-08-25 24.60% Sheriff Tiraspol 1547 2 @ Zimbru 1579 1
8 2025-05-10 28.13% Zimbru 1530 3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1532 0
9 2024-09-28 28.52% @ Balti 1415 2 Zimbru 1530 0
10 2024-11-23 28.54% @ Zimbru 1473 1 Petrocub Hincesti 1589 0
11 2025-04-26 30.37% @ Petrocub Hincesti 1507 2 Milsami Orhei 1608 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-03-16 77.77 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1442 24.12% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1596 48.85% 27.03%
2 2024-08-18 70.21 Zimbru 8 1509 59.09% @ Floresti 0 1258 15.16% 25.75%
3 2025-05-10 66.14 Zimbru 3 1530 28.13% @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1532 44.59% 27.28%
4 2024-08-25 55.58 @ Milsami Orhei 6 1313 58.24% Floresti 0 1187 15.86% 25.90%
5 2024-08-18 52.65 Balti 2 1295 20.56% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1365 52.76% 26.67%
6 2024-09-14 52.08 @ Milsami Orhei 7 1375 62.36% Dacia Buiucani 0 1202 12.59% 25.05%
7 2024-11-02 50.33 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1616 51.08% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1444 22.08% 26.84%
8 2024-09-28 45.20 @ Balti 2 1415 28.52% Zimbru 0 1530 44.18% 27.30%
9 2025-04-26 43.61 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1507 30.37% Milsami Orhei 0 1608 42.26% 27.37%
10 2024-08-04 42.96 @ Zimbru 4 1437 55.39% Balti 0 1342 18.26% 26.35%
11 2024-09-01 40.57 Balti 4 1358 56.76% @ Floresti 0 1132 17.10% 26.15%
12 2025-05-18 40.08 Petrocub Hincesti 6 1466 64.31% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1151 11.16% 24.54%
13 2024-10-30 38.09 Petrocub Hincesti 2 1547 37.23% @ Milsami Orhei 0 1482 35.32% 27.45%
14 2025-03-29 35.51 Milsami Orhei 2 1520 40.48% @ Balti 0 1432 32.11% 27.41%
15 2024-11-23 34.81 Dacia Buiucani 3 1185 53.93% @ Floresti 0 987 19.53% 26.54%
16 2024-10-06 33.39 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1429 36.63% Zimbru 1 1485 35.91% 27.46%
17 2024-09-14 33.34 Spartanii Sportul 3 1229 5.85% @ Zimbru 2 1562 72.88% 21.27%
18 2025-04-12 32.85 Zimbru 2 1503 43.72% @ Balti 0 1391 28.97% 27.32%
19 2025-05-03 32.23 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1565 65.03% Balti 0 1357 10.64% 24.33%
20 2025-03-09 30.56 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1565 57.12% Balti 0 1452 16.78% 26.09%
21 2024-08-11 28.84 @ Zimbru 4 1480 54.38% Milsami Orhei 1 1394 19.13% 26.48%
22 2025-04-19 27.66 @ Milsami Orhei 2 1581 49.79% Zimbru 0 1536 23.25% 26.96%
23 2025-03-08 26.85 Milsami Orhei 2 1415 19.53% @ Zimbru 1 1497 53.93% 26.54%
24 2024-11-23 26.34 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1389 60.27% Spartanii Sportul 0 1241 14.21% 25.52%
25 2024-08-17 25.95 Spartanii Sportul 1 1208 24.39% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1242 48.56% 27.05%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-04-13 74.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1666 54.67% Milsami Orhei 2 1578 18.88% 26.45%
2 2025-03-29 67.8 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1518 24.96% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1664 47.95% 27.10%
3 2025-04-26 67.8 @ Zimbru 1 1509 23.37% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1669 49.66% 26.97%
4 2024-10-19 67.1 @ Petrocub Hincesti 1 1556 38.13% Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1602 34.42% 27.45%
5 2024-08-25 66.4 Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1547 24.60% @ Zimbru 1 1579 48.33% 27.07%
6 2025-05-18 65.8 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1690 56.07% Milsami Orhei 0 1587 17.68% 26.25%
7 2024-09-14 65.5 Spartanii Sportul 3 1229 5.85% @ Zimbru 2 1562 72.88% 21.27%
8 2025-03-15 63.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1671 64.50% Zimbru 0 1470 11.01% 24.48%
9 2024-11-23 62.2 @ Balti 0 1446 17.27% Sheriff Tiraspol 0 1671 56.55% 26.18%
10 2025-04-06 62.1 @ Zimbru 3 1486 39.70% Petrocub Hincesti 2 1521 32.87% 27.43%
11 2024-09-01 62.0 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1565 73.41% Spartanii Sportul 2 1222 5.58% 21.01%
12 2025-04-26 61.8 @ Balti 3 1361 64.81% Spartanii Sportul 3 1156 10.80% 24.39%
13 2024-09-15 60.7 @ Balti 2 1399 23.43% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1559 49.59% 26.97%
14 2024-08-31 60.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1572 64.68% Milsami Orhei 1 1368 10.89% 24.43%
15 2025-03-08 60.3 Milsami Orhei 2 1415 19.53% @ Zimbru 1 1497 53.93% 26.54%
16 2024-09-22 60.0 @ Petrocub Hincesti 0 1534 45.01% Zimbru 0 1528 27.73% 27.26%
17 2025-03-16 59.2 @ Milsami Orhei 5 1442 24.12% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1596 48.85% 27.03%
18 2024-11-23 58.3 @ Zimbru 1 1473 28.54% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1589 44.17% 27.30%
19 2025-04-26 58.2 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1507 30.37% Milsami Orhei 0 1608 42.26% 27.37%
20 2025-05-04 57.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1666 57.29% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1551 16.65% 26.07%
21 2024-11-03 57.4 @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1256 10.41% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1585 65.37% 24.23%
22 2025-04-19 57.3 @ Balti 1 1358 24.32% Petrocub Hincesti 1 1510 48.63% 27.05%
23 2024-08-18 57.1 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1527 37.32% Petrocub Hincesti 0 1578 35.23% 27.45%
24 2025-05-10 57.1 @ Milsami Orhei 1 1597 78.84% Spartanii Sportul 1 1142 3.26% 17.90%
25 2024-10-27 56.2 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1602 59.69% Zimbru 2 1460 14.67% 25.63%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-11-09 25.6 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 8 1667 86.81% Floresti 0 991 1.10% 12.10%
2 2024-11-03 27.6 @ Balti 5 1448 78.50% Floresti 0 1000 3.38% 18.12%
3 2024-10-20 28.5 @ Zimbru 4 1452 77.51% Floresti 0 1026 3.76% 18.73%
4 2024-10-06 28.9 Petrocub Hincesti 5 1543 75.68% @ Floresti 0 1039 4.52% 19.80%
5 2024-10-26 29.4 Milsami Orhei 5 1464 72.71% @ Floresti 0 1018 5.94% 21.35%
6 2025-05-04 29.9 @ Zimbru 6 1512 73.87% Spartanii Sportul 0 1160 5.35% 20.77%
7 2024-09-15 30.5 Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1565 74.15% @ Floresti 0 1091 5.22% 20.63%
8 2025-04-19 31.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 4 1663 80.77% Spartanii Sportul 0 1162 2.60% 16.62%
9 2025-05-18 32.3 Petrocub Hincesti 6 1466 64.31% @ Spartanii Sportul 0 1151 11.16% 24.54%
10 2024-09-14 32.4 @ Milsami Orhei 7 1375 62.36% Dacia Buiucani 0 1202 12.59% 25.05%
11 2024-08-25 33.5 @ Milsami Orhei 6 1313 58.24% Floresti 0 1187 15.86% 25.90%
12 2024-09-28 34.2 @ Spartanii Sportul 2 1249 64.03% Floresti 0 1054 11.35% 24.61%
13 2024-08-25 34.3 @ Petrocub Hincesti 2 1558 73.40% Dacia Buiucani 0 1216 5.59% 21.01%
14 2025-03-09 34.3 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 3 1666 78.64% Spartanii Sportul 0 1215 3.33% 18.03%
15 2024-09-01 34.7 Balti 4 1358 56.76% @ Floresti 0 1132 17.10% 26.15%
16 2024-08-09 35.0 @ Petrocub Hincesti 3 1578 72.20% Floresti 0 1258 6.20% 21.60%
17 2024-11-03 35.2 @ Zimbru 1 1446 68.54% Dacia Buiucani 0 1187 8.31% 23.15%
18 2024-11-23 35.2 @ Milsami Orhei 3 1389 60.27% Spartanii Sportul 0 1241 14.21% 25.52%
19 2024-08-04 35.4 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 2 1512 68.85% Dacia Buiucani 0 1248 8.12% 23.03%
20 2024-08-18 35.4 Zimbru 8 1509 59.09% @ Floresti 0 1258 15.16% 25.75%
21 2024-08-11 35.5 @ Sheriff Tiraspol 1 1523 71.65% Spartanii Sportul 0 1212 6.50% 21.85%
22 2025-04-06 35.8 Milsami Orhei 6 1556 67.86% @ Spartanii Sportul 1 1190 8.74% 23.40%
23 2024-11-23 36.0 Dacia Buiucani 3 1185 53.93% @ Floresti 0 987 19.53% 26.54%
24 2024-08-31 37.5 Zimbru 1 1555 66.56% @ Dacia Buiucani 0 1209 9.59% 23.85%
25 2024-09-21 37.5 @ Dacia Buiucani 2 1150 52.78% Floresti 0 1079 20.55% 26.67%