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2019-20 Montenegrin First League Season

155 games

Final

Champion

Buducnost Podgorica

73 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Buducnost Podgorica

14.37 points above expected

73 points · 58.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Grbalj

12.05 points below expected

22 points · 34.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Buducnost Podgorica 31 23 4 4 73 63 26 +37 58.63 +14.37
2 Sutjeska 31 15 10 6 55 57 31 +26 60.25 -5.25
3 Iskra 31 15 8 8 53 43 33 +10 44.94 +8.06
4 Zeta 31 9 14 8 41 29 30 -1 44.77 -3.77
5 Podgorica 31 8 16 7 40 34 27 +7 42.79 -2.79
6 Petrovac 31 9 10 12 37 30 46 -16 26.76 +10.24
7 Rudar 31 10 5 16 35 38 57 -19 31.45 +3.55
8 Titograd 31 7 10 14 31 29 38 -9 38.46 -7.46
9 Kom Podgorica 31 6 11 14 29 36 45 -9 36.37 -7.37
10 Grbalj 31 4 10 17 22 23 49 -26 34.05 -12.05

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Buducnost Podgorica 73 58.63 +14.37
2 Petrovac 37 26.76 +10.24
3 Iskra 53 44.94 +8.06
4 Rudar 35 31.45 +3.55
5 Podgorica 40 42.79 -2.79

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Grbalj 22 34.05 -12.05
2 Titograd 31 38.46 -7.46
3 Kom Podgorica 29 36.37 -7.37
4 Sutjeska 55 60.25 -5.25
5 Zeta 41 44.77 -3.77

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rudar 4 Feb 18 – Mar 7 1 in 367
2 Titograd 4 Aug 24 – Sep 18 1 in 82
3 Iskra 4 Sep 28 – Oct 26 1 in 80
4 Buducnost Podgorica 6 Feb 23 – Jun 7 1 in 29
5 Petrovac 2 Nov 2 – Nov 9 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Titograd 3 Oct 6 – Oct 26 1 in 53
2 Iskra 3 Dec 1 – Dec 11 1 in 52
3 Petrovac 5 Aug 31 – Sep 28 1 in 39
4 Kom Podgorica 3 Feb 18 – Feb 29 1 in 35
5 Buducnost Podgorica 2 Sep 14 – Sep 18 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Petrovac 9 Mar 7 – Jun 30 1 in 868
2 Iskra 9 Sep 18 – Nov 23 1 in 25
3 Buducnost Podgorica 12 Nov 23 – Jun 7 1 in 15
4 Podgorica 7 Nov 23 – Feb 29 1 in 12
5 Rudar 4 Feb 18 – Mar 7 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Grbalj 15 Aug 14 – Dec 5 1 in 258
2 Titograd 11 Dec 5 – Jun 16 1 in 42
3 Kom Podgorica 10 Sep 22 – Dec 5 1 in 34
4 Zeta 6 Jun 7 – Jun 30 1 in 20
5 Podgorica 7 Dec 5 – May 30 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Buducnost Podgorica 1300 73 -1 10 10.0 +0.0
Sutjeska 1262 55 +5 10 9.9 +0.1
Iskra 1179 53 +26 12 7.1 +4.9
Zeta 1157 41 -8 4 7.1 -3.1
Podgorica 1154 40 +1 6 7.7 -1.7
Petrovac 1059 37 +22 9 4.5 +4.5
Rudar 1056 35 -32 1 5.7 -4.7
Titograd 1093 31 +2 6 5.6 +0.4
Kom Podgorica 1082 29 +0 5 5.0 -0.0
Grbalj 1043 22 -14 3 5.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BP GRB ISK KP PET POD RUD SUT TIT ZET
Buducnost Podgorica —
3-0-0
6.03
1-1-1
4.98
4-0-0
7.68
3-1-0
8.47
3-1-0
7.17
4-0-0
7.92
2-0-1
4.00
2-0-1
5.38
1-1-1
5.25
Grbalj
0-0-3
2.20
 —
1-0-3
4.29
1-2-1
5.16
0-1-2
5.05
0-3-1
4.67
2-1-1
5.70
0-1-2
2.02
0-1-2
3.81
0-1-2
3.35
Iskra
1-1-1
3.08
3-0-1
6.46
 —
1-1-1
5.06
1-0-2
5.42
1-2-0
4.25
1-1-1
5.37
2-1-1
3.77
2-1-1
5.98
3-1-0
5.38
Kom Podgorica
0-0-4
3.22
1-2-1
5.52
1-1-1
3.00
 —
1-0-3
6.40
0-2-1
3.43
1-1-1
4.62
0-2-1
2.41
1-0-2
3.61
1-3-0
4.33
Petrovac
0-1-3
2.60
2-1-0
3.01
2-0-1
2.70
3-0-1
4.33
 —
0-3-1
3.93
1-0-2
3.49
0-1-2
1.71
1-1-1
3.23
0-3-1
3.59
Podgorica
0-1-3
3.65
1-3-0
6.06
0-2-1
3.77
1-2-0
4.60
1-3-0
6.85
 —
2-0-1
4.49
1-1-1
2.38
1-3-0
5.69
1-1-1
3.40
Rudar
0-0-4
3.02
1-1-2
4.99
1-1-1
2.72
1-1-1
3.40
2-0-1
4.54
1-0-2
3.54
 —
1-0-3
2.78
3-1-0
4.45
0-1-2
2.85
Sutjeska
1-0-2
4.03
2-1-0
6.24
1-1-2
7.02
1-2-0
5.76
2-1-0
6.66
1-1-1
5.79
3-0-1
8.22
 —
2-2-0
7.54
2-2-0
6.97
Titograd
1-0-2
2.73
2-1-0
4.21
1-1-2
4.72
2-0-1
4.40
1-1-1
4.82
0-3-1
5.01
0-1-3
6.27
0-2-2
3.33
 —
0-1-2
3.69
Zeta
1-1-1
2.85
2-1-0
4.69
0-1-3
5.31
0-3-1
6.40
1-3-0
7.24
1-1-1
4.63
2-1-0
5.23
0-2-2
3.82
2-1-0
4.33
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +10.5
Allowed 0.47 -9.7
Differential 0.87 +6.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.68%8.06%6.77%2.90%1.61%0.65%29.68%
18.06%18.71%5.16%4.19%1.94%0.32%38.39%
26.77%5.16%2.58%1.94%0.65%—17.10%
32.90%4.19%1.94%0.65%——9.68%
41.61%1.94%0.65%———4.19%
5+0.65%0.32%————0.97%
Total29.68%38.39%17.10%9.68%4.19%0.97%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.75
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 155

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
119.35%9.68%6.45%—6.45%—41.94%
216.13%3.23%3.23%———22.58%
39.68%9.68%6.45%———25.81%
46.45%3.23%————9.68%
5+———————
Total51.61%25.81%16.13%—6.45%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.84 +1.19
SD 1.05 1.13 1.68
CV 0.52 1.35 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.90%12.90%16.13%—3.23%3.23%48.39%
16.45%16.13%6.45%3.23%3.23%—35.48%
2——3.23%6.45%——9.68%
3—6.45%————6.45%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.35%35.48%25.81%9.68%6.45%3.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.74 1.58 -0.84
SD 0.89 1.29 1.53
CV 1.20 0.81 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.68%3.23%6.45%———19.35%
116.13%12.90%6.45%3.23%3.23%—41.94%
29.68%6.45%3.23%—3.23%—22.58%
33.23%6.45%3.23%———12.90%
4—3.23%————3.23%
5+———————
Total38.71%32.26%19.35%3.23%6.45%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.06 +0.32
SD 1.05 1.15 1.54
CV 0.76 1.08 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%12.90%9.68%———29.03%
16.45%25.81%6.45%6.45%——45.16%
23.23%——6.45%3.23%—12.90%
3——6.45%3.23%——9.68%
4———————
5+3.23%—————3.23%
Total19.35%38.71%22.58%16.13%3.23%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.45 -0.29
SD 1.16 1.09 1.44
CV 1.00 0.75 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%9.68%3.23%12.90%6.45%—38.71%
16.45%22.58%——3.23%—32.26%
26.45%12.90%3.23%3.23%——25.81%
3———————
4—3.23%————3.23%
5+———————
Total19.35%48.39%6.45%16.13%9.68%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.48 -0.52
SD 0.98 1.26 1.82
CV 1.02 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.13%12.90%————29.03%
13.23%32.26%6.45%3.23%——45.16%
26.45%6.45%3.23%———16.13%
36.45%—————6.45%
4——3.23%———3.23%
5+———————
Total32.26%51.61%12.90%3.23%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 0.87 +0.23
SD 1.01 0.76 1.18
CV 0.92 0.88 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.23%19.35%12.90%6.45%3.23%45.16%
13.23%12.90%3.23%3.23%——22.58%
23.23%3.23%3.23%———9.68%
3—9.68%3.23%———12.90%
43.23%3.23%————6.45%
5+—3.23%————3.23%
Total9.68%35.48%29.03%16.13%6.45%3.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.84 -0.61
SD 1.48 1.21 2.39
CV 1.20 0.66 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.68%3.23%9.68%———22.58%
16.45%16.13%3.23%——3.23%29.03%
26.45%3.23%3.23%———12.90%
36.45%6.45%—3.23%——16.13%
46.45%6.45%3.23%———16.13%
5+3.23%—————3.23%
Total38.71%35.48%19.35%3.23%—3.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.84 1.00 +0.84
SD 1.53 1.13 2.03
CV 0.83 1.13 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.13%16.13%—3.23%——35.48%
13.23%16.13%9.68%12.90%——41.94%
23.23%9.68%—3.23%——16.13%
33.23%3.23%————6.45%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.81%45.16%9.68%19.35%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.23 -0.29
SD 0.89 1.06 1.32
CV 0.95 0.86 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.35%6.45%3.23%———29.03%
19.68%22.58%3.23%9.68%3.23%—48.39%
212.90%6.45%3.23%———22.58%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total41.94%35.48%9.68%9.68%3.23%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 0.97 -0.03
SD 0.73 1.11 1.28
CV 0.78 1.15 —
Max 2 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Buducnost Podgorica 1300 73 65.38 +7.62 83.0% 50 53 60 66 69 79 84
Sutjeska 1262 55 67.00 -12.00 4.0% 50 56 64 67 71 77 79
Iskra 1179 53 51.69 +1.31 63.0% 37 41 48 51 56 62 69
Zeta 1157 41 51.52 -10.52 7.0% 32 40 46 51 56 66 73
Podgorica 1154 40 49.54 -9.54 11.0% 27 36 44 49 54 62 71
Titograd 1093 31 45.21 -14.21 3.0% 27 33 40 45 51 57 60
Kom Podgorica 1082 29 43.12 -14.12 2.0% 27 32 38 43 47 57 63
Petrovac 1059 37 33.51 +3.49 72.0% 17 23 29 33 39 43 49
Rudar 1056 35 38.20 -3.20 40.0% 21 28 33 37 45 48 60
Grbalj 1043 22 40.80 -18.80 0.0% 27 29 34 40 45 54 63

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.19%
Slight Edge
41.29%31.61%27.10%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.65 Elo pts.
173 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
Buducnost Podgorica, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.58/gm
Runaway
00.200.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.3 * Some Luck: 5.3 to 7.95 * Lucky: 7.95 to 10.6 * Wild Swing: 10.6 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.11 * Close: 1.11 to 1.67 * Off: 1.67 to 2.22 * Way Off: 2.22 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.65 points
Lucky
06.6217
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.393
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.21%
Buducnost Podgorica
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.23%
Grbalj
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 88.88
2.13
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Slight Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.68
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.53
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.99
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1440.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Buducnost Podgorica42.00%37.00%14.00%5.00%2.00%—————
Sutjeska52.00%35.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%—————
Iskra2.00%9.00%18.00%31.00%17.00%9.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%—
Zeta2.00%10.00%23.00%13.00%20.00%18.00%3.00%6.00%5.00%—
Podgorica2.00%6.00%15.00%23.00%17.00%11.00%13.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%
Petrovac————1.00%5.00%12.00%14.00%22.00%46.00%
Rudar——1.00%3.00%6.00%14.00%10.00%19.00%22.00%25.00%
Titograd——11.00%12.00%16.00%18.00%16.00%14.00%8.00%5.00%
Kom Podgorica—2.00%4.00%7.00%14.00%15.00%20.00%15.00%16.00%7.00%
Grbalj—1.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%10.00%19.00%20.00%22.00%14.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Buducnost Podgorica 100% — —
Iskra 93.00% 7.00% —
Sutjeska 100% — —
Zeta 89.00% 11.00% —
Podgorica 87.00% 10.00% 3.00%
Titograd 73.00% 22.00% 5.00%
Kom Podgorica 62.00% 31.00% 7.00%
Grbalj 44.00% 42.00% 14.00%
Rudar 34.00% 41.00% 25.00%
Petrovac 18.00% 36.00% 46.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-08-03 Iskra L 2-354.7 1123 1148 36.75% 33.38% 29.88%+0.14 -5.0 0
2019-08-03 @ Grbalj W 3-254.7 1148 1123 29.88% 33.38% 36.75%-0.14 +5.1 3
2019-08-03 Podgorica D 1-150.8 1062 1121 31.80% 33.50% 34.71%-0.06 +0.1 1
2019-08-03 @ Petrovac D 1-150.8 1121 1062 34.71% 33.50% 31.80%+0.06 -0.1 1
2019-08-03 Sutjeska L 0-139.3 1126 1251 23.95% 32.17% 43.88%-0.44 -4.2 0
2019-08-03 @ Titograd W 1-039.3 1251 1126 43.88% 32.17% 23.95%+0.44 +4.1 3
2019-08-03 Zeta D 0-045.7 1103 1161 31.99% 33.51% 34.50%-0.05 +0.1 1
2019-08-03 @ Kom Podgorica D 0-045.7 1161 1103 34.50% 33.51% 31.99%+0.05 -0.1 1
2019-08-05 Rudar W 2-031.7 1214 1078 58.11% 26.33% 15.56%+1.07 +5.1 3
2019-08-05 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-231.7 1078 1214 15.56% 26.33% 58.11%-1.07 -5.1 0
2019-08-09 Sutjeska D 0-046.0 1161 1255 27.39% 33.05% 39.57%-0.26 +0.4 2
2019-08-09 @ Zeta D 0-046.0 1255 1161 39.57% 33.05% 27.39%+0.26 -0.4 4
2019-08-10 Buducnost Podgorica L 1-343.4 1121 1219 26.98% 32.97% 40.05%-0.28 -7.4 1
2019-08-10 @ Podgorica W 3-143.4 1219 1121 40.05% 32.97% 26.98%+0.28 +7.4 6
2019-08-10 Grbalj L 1-345.5 1073 1118 33.90% 33.52% 32.58%+0.03 -8.7 0
2019-08-10 @ Rudar W 3-145.5 1118 1073 32.58% 33.52% 33.90%-0.03 +8.7 3
2019-08-10 Petrovac W 3-249.8 1103 1062 45.94% 31.59% 22.47%+0.52 +3.5 4
2019-08-10 @ Kom Podgorica L 2-349.8 1062 1103 22.47% 31.59% 45.94%-0.52 -3.5 1
2019-08-10 Titograd D 0-046.1 1153 1122 44.66% 31.96% 23.38%+0.47 -0.7 4
2019-08-10 @ Iskra D 0-046.1 1122 1153 23.38% 31.96% 44.66%-0.47 +0.7 1
2019-08-14 Kom Podgorica W 3-138.5 1226 1106 56.17% 27.35% 16.48%+0.98 +4.7 9
2019-08-14 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 1-338.5 1106 1226 16.48% 27.35% 56.17%-0.98 -4.7 4
2019-08-14 Podgorica D 1-151.1 1127 1114 42.07% 32.59% 25.34%+0.36 -0.5 4
2019-08-14 @ Grbalj D 1-151.1 1114 1127 25.34% 32.59% 42.07%-0.36 +0.5 2
2019-08-14 Rudar L 0-146.0 1122 1064 48.22% 30.83% 20.94%+0.62 -6.9 1
2019-08-14 @ Titograd W 1-046.0 1064 1122 20.94% 30.83% 48.22%-0.62 +6.9 3
2019-08-14 Zeta L 0-236.9 1058 1161 26.32% 32.83% 40.85%-0.31 -8.4 1
2019-08-14 @ Petrovac W 2-036.9 1161 1058 40.85% 32.83% 26.32%+0.31 +8.4 5
2019-08-18 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-332.1 1050 1231 19.04% 29.62% 51.34%-0.76 -9.2 1
2019-08-18 @ Petrovac W 3-032.1 1231 1050 51.34% 29.62% 19.04%+0.76 +9.2 12
2019-08-18 Grbalj D 1-150.9 1101 1126 36.82% 33.37% 29.81%+0.14 -0.2 5
2019-08-18 @ Kom Podgorica D 1-150.9 1126 1101 29.81% 33.37% 36.82%-0.14 +0.2 5
2019-08-18 Iskra L 0-144.9 1170 1152 42.71% 32.45% 24.84%+0.39 -6.3 5
2019-08-18 @ Zeta W 1-044.9 1152 1170 24.84% 32.45% 42.71%-0.39 +6.3 7
2019-08-18 Sutjeska L 0-432.1 1071 1255 18.87% 29.48% 51.65%-0.77 -11.9 3
2019-08-18 @ Rudar W 4-032.1 1255 1071 51.65% 29.48% 18.87%+0.77 +11.9 7
2019-08-18 Titograd D 0-045.8 1114 1115 40.16% 32.95% 26.89%+0.28 -0.4 3
2019-08-18 @ Podgorica D 0-045.8 1115 1114 26.89% 32.95% 40.16%-0.28 +0.4 2
2019-08-24 Kom Podgorica W 3-142.6 1116 1101 42.33% 32.53% 25.14%+0.37 +7.0 5
2019-08-24 @ Titograd L 1-342.6 1101 1116 25.14% 32.53% 42.33%-0.37 -7.0 5
2019-08-24 Petrovac L 1-252.9 1126 1040 51.84% 29.40% 18.76%+0.78 -6.8 5
2019-08-24 @ Grbalj W 2-152.9 1040 1126 18.76% 29.40% 51.84%-0.78 +6.8 4
2019-08-24 Podgorica L 1-254.3 1267 1114 60.14% 25.21% 14.65%+1.17 -7.6 7
2019-08-24 @ Sutjeska W 2-154.3 1114 1267 14.65% 25.21% 60.14%-1.17 +7.6 6
2019-08-24 Rudar W 2-033.0 1159 1059 53.61% 28.61% 17.79%+0.86 +5.9 10
2019-08-24 @ Iskra L 0-233.0 1059 1159 17.79% 28.61% 53.61%-0.86 -5.9 3
2019-08-25 Zeta D 1-152.1 1240 1164 50.66% 29.90% 19.44%+0.73 -1.0 13
2019-08-25 @ Buducnost Podgorica D 1-152.1 1164 1240 19.44% 29.90% 50.66%-0.73 +1.0 6
2019-08-28 Iskra W 4-243.2 1259 1165 52.93% 28.92% 18.15%+0.83 +4.7 10
2019-08-28 @ Sutjeska L 2-443.2 1165 1259 18.15% 28.92% 52.93%-0.83 -4.7 10
2019-08-31 Grbalj W 3-246.9 1239 1120 56.13% 27.37% 16.50%+0.98 +2.6 16
2019-08-31 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 2-346.9 1120 1239 16.50% 27.37% 56.13%-0.98 -2.6 5
2019-08-31 Iskra D 0-045.7 1122 1160 34.85% 33.49% 31.65%+0.06 -0.1 7
2019-08-31 @ Podgorica D 0-045.7 1160 1122 31.65% 33.49% 34.85%-0.06 +0.1 11
2019-08-31 Rudar W 2-142.0 1164 1053 55.07% 27.90% 17.02%+0.93 +2.8 9
2019-08-31 @ Zeta L 1-242.0 1053 1164 17.02% 27.90% 55.07%-0.93 -2.8 3
2019-08-31 Sutjeska D 1-151.9 1094 1264 19.96% 30.24% 49.80%-0.69 +0.9 6
2019-08-31 @ Kom Podgorica D 1-151.9 1264 1094 49.80% 30.24% 19.96%+0.69 -0.9 11
2019-08-31 Titograd L 0-336.4 1047 1123 29.69% 33.36% 36.95%-0.15 -13.4 4
2019-08-31 @ Petrovac W 3-036.4 1123 1047 36.95% 33.36% 29.69%+0.15 +13.4 8
2019-09-14 Buducnost Podgorica W 2-150.9 1136 1242 26.05% 32.77% 41.18%-0.32 +5.8 11
2019-09-14 @ Titograd L 1-250.9 1242 1136 41.18% 32.77% 26.05%+0.32 -5.8 16
2019-09-14 Kom Podgorica L 0-243.0 1160 1095 49.12% 30.51% 20.38%+0.66 -13.1 11
2019-09-14 @ Iskra W 2-043.0 1095 1160 20.38% 30.51% 49.12%-0.66 +13.1 9
2019-09-14 Petrovac W 3-026.9 1263 1034 68.87% 19.93% 11.20%+1.61 +4.8 14
2019-09-14 @ Sutjeska L 0-326.9 1034 1263 11.20% 19.93% 68.87%-1.61 -4.8 4
2019-09-14 Podgorica W 2-149.5 1050 1121 30.27% 33.41% 36.32%-0.12 +5.3 6
2019-09-14 @ Rudar L 1-249.5 1121 1050 36.32% 33.41% 30.27%+0.12 -5.3 7
2019-09-14 Zeta D 0-045.7 1117 1167 33.14% 33.52% 33.34%+0.00 +0.0 6
2019-09-14 @ Grbalj D 0-045.7 1167 1117 33.34% 33.52% 33.14%+0.00 -0.0 10
2019-09-18 Iskra L 0-139.4 1029 1147 24.71% 32.41% 42.87%-0.39 -4.2 4
2019-09-18 @ Petrovac W 1-039.4 1147 1029 42.87% 32.41% 24.71%+0.39 +4.2 14
2019-09-18 Podgorica W 1-038.2 1167 1116 47.29% 31.16% 21.56%+0.58 +3.8 13
2019-09-18 @ Zeta L 0-138.2 1116 1167 21.56% 31.16% 47.29%-0.58 -3.8 7
2019-09-18 Rudar W 5-033.9 1108 1056 47.49% 31.09% 21.42%+0.59 +16.6 12
2019-09-18 @ Kom Podgorica L 0-533.9 1056 1108 21.42% 31.09% 47.49%-0.59 -16.6 6
2019-09-18 Sutjeska L 1-443.8 1236 1268 35.84% 33.44% 30.72%+0.10 -12.8 16
2019-09-18 @ Buducnost Podgorica W 4-143.8 1268 1236 30.72% 33.44% 35.84%-0.10 +12.8 17
2019-09-18 Titograd L 0-240.2 1117 1142 36.76% 33.38% 29.86%+0.14 -10.7 6
2019-09-18 @ Grbalj W 2-040.2 1142 1117 29.86% 33.38% 36.76%-0.14 +10.7 14
2019-09-22 Buducnost Podgorica D 2-257.2 1151 1223 30.15% 33.40% 36.45%-0.13 +0.1 15
2019-09-22 @ Iskra D 2-257.2 1223 1151 36.45% 33.40% 30.15%+0.13 -0.1 17
2019-09-22 Grbalj W 5-029.5 1280 1106 62.70% 23.73% 13.57%+1.29 +10.0 20
2019-09-22 @ Sutjeska L 0-529.5 1106 1280 13.57% 23.73% 62.70%-1.29 -10.0 6
2019-09-22 Kom Podgorica W 4-247.3 1112 1125 38.55% 33.19% 28.26%+0.21 +6.9 10
2019-09-22 @ Podgorica L 2-447.3 1125 1112 28.26% 33.19% 38.55%-0.21 -6.9 12
2019-09-22 Petrovac W 4-034.8 1039 1025 42.27% 32.55% 25.18%+0.37 +15.4 9
2019-09-22 @ Rudar L 0-434.8 1025 1039 25.18% 32.55% 42.27%-0.37 -15.4 4
2019-09-22 Zeta L 0-143.7 1153 1171 37.71% 33.29% 29.01%+0.18 -5.8 14
2019-09-22 @ Titograd W 1-043.7 1171 1153 29.01% 33.29% 37.71%-0.18 +5.7 16
2019-09-28 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-332.6 1054 1223 20.02% 30.28% 49.70%-0.69 -9.7 9
2019-09-28 @ Rudar W 3-032.6 1223 1054 49.70% 30.28% 20.02%+0.69 +9.7 20
2019-09-28 Grbalj W 1-038.0 1151 1096 47.82% 30.98% 21.21%+0.60 +3.7 18
2019-09-28 @ Iskra L 0-138.0 1096 1151 21.21% 30.98% 47.82%-0.60 -3.7 6
2019-09-28 Kom Podgorica D 0-046.5 1177 1118 48.31% 30.80% 20.89%+0.63 -0.9 17
2019-09-28 @ Zeta D 0-046.5 1118 1177 20.89% 30.80% 48.31%-0.63 +0.9 13
2019-09-28 Petrovac W 1-035.8 1119 1009 54.89% 27.99% 17.12%+0.92 +3.0 13
2019-09-28 @ Podgorica L 0-135.8 1009 1119 17.12% 27.99% 54.89%-0.92 -3.0 4
2019-09-28 Titograd D 1-153.4 1290 1147 59.05% 25.82% 15.13%+1.12 -1.4 21
2019-09-28 @ Sutjeska D 1-153.4 1147 1290 15.13% 25.82% 59.05%-1.12 +1.4 15
2019-10-05 Kom Podgorica W 2-150.9 1006 1119 25.29% 32.58% 42.13%-0.36 +5.9 7
2019-10-05 @ Petrovac L 1-250.9 1119 1006 42.13% 32.58% 25.29%+0.36 -5.9 13
2019-10-05 Podgorica W 1-035.9 1233 1122 54.97% 27.95% 17.07%+0.92 +3.0 23
2019-10-05 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-135.9 1122 1233 17.07% 27.95% 54.97%-0.92 -3.0 13
2019-10-05 Rudar D 2-257.7 1093 1045 46.84% 31.30% 21.86%+0.56 -0.5 7
2019-10-05 @ Grbalj D 2-257.7 1045 1093 21.86% 31.30% 46.84%-0.56 +0.6 10
2019-10-05 Zeta W 2-142.3 1289 1176 55.31% 27.78% 16.90%+0.94 +2.8 24
2019-10-05 @ Sutjeska L 1-242.3 1176 1289 16.90% 27.78% 55.31%-0.94 -2.8 17
2019-10-06 Iskra L 0-144.1 1148 1155 39.35% 33.08% 27.57%+0.25 -5.9 15
2019-10-06 @ Titograd W 1-044.1 1155 1148 27.57% 33.08% 39.35%-0.25 +5.9 21
2019-10-19 Buducnost Podgorica L 2-350.7 1113 1236 24.20% 32.25% 43.55%-0.42 -3.7 13
2019-10-19 @ Kom Podgorica W 3-250.7 1236 1113 43.55% 32.25% 24.20%+0.42 +3.7 26
2019-10-19 Grbalj D 1-151.3 1119 1092 44.08% 32.11% 23.81%+0.44 -0.6 14
2019-10-19 @ Podgorica D 1-151.3 1092 1119 23.81% 32.11% 44.08%-0.44 +0.6 8
2019-10-19 Petrovac D 1-153.5 1173 1012 61.12% 24.65% 14.23%+1.22 -1.5 18
2019-10-19 @ Zeta D 1-153.5 1012 1173 14.23% 24.65% 61.12%-1.22 +1.5 8
2019-10-19 Sutjeska W 2-042.4 1161 1292 23.38% 31.96% 44.66%-0.47 +12.2 24
2019-10-19 @ Iskra L 0-242.4 1292 1161 44.66% 31.96% 23.38%+0.47 -12.2 24
2019-10-19 Titograd W 3-147.2 1045 1142 27.03% 32.98% 39.98%-0.27 +9.8 13
2019-10-19 @ Rudar L 1-347.2 1142 1045 39.98% 32.98% 27.03%+0.27 -9.8 15
2019-10-26 Kom Podgorica D 1-150.9 1093 1109 37.94% 33.26% 28.80%+0.19 -0.3 9
2019-10-26 @ Grbalj D 1-150.9 1109 1093 28.80% 33.26% 37.94%-0.19 +0.3 14
2019-10-26 Petrovac W 3-027.0 1240 1014 68.54% 20.14% 11.32%+1.59 +4.9 29
2019-10-26 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-327.0 1014 1240 11.32% 20.14% 68.54%-1.59 -4.9 8
2019-10-26 Podgorica L 1-251.0 1133 1119 42.23% 32.56% 25.21%+0.37 -5.9 15
2019-10-26 @ Titograd W 2-151.0 1119 1133 25.21% 32.56% 42.23%-0.37 +5.9 17
2019-10-26 Zeta W 3-143.2 1173 1172 40.53% 32.89% 26.59%+0.30 +7.3 27
2019-10-26 @ Iskra L 1-343.2 1172 1173 26.59% 32.89% 40.53%-0.30 -7.3 18
2019-10-27 Rudar W 3-027.1 1280 1055 68.41% 20.22% 11.37%+1.58 +4.9 27
2019-10-27 @ Sutjeska L 0-327.1 1055 1280 11.37% 20.22% 68.41%-1.58 -4.9 13
2019-11-02 Buducnost Podgorica W 2-150.0 1164 1244 29.09% 33.30% 37.61%-0.18 +5.4 21
2019-11-02 @ Zeta L 1-250.0 1244 1164 37.61% 33.30% 29.09%+0.18 -5.4 29
2019-11-02 Grbalj W 2-040.5 1009 1092 28.68% 33.25% 38.07%-0.20 +10.9 11
2019-11-02 @ Petrovac L 0-240.5 1092 1009 38.07% 33.25% 28.68%+0.20 -10.9 9
2019-11-02 Iskra D 1-151.3 1050 1181 23.43% 31.98% 44.59%-0.47 +0.6 14
2019-11-02 @ Rudar D 1-151.3 1181 1050 44.59% 31.98% 23.43%+0.47 -0.6 28
2019-11-02 Sutjeska D 2-258.1 1125 1285 20.72% 30.71% 48.57%-0.64 +0.6 18
2019-11-02 @ Podgorica D 2-258.1 1285 1125 48.57% 30.71% 20.72%+0.64 -0.6 28
2019-11-02 Titograd L 1-249.9 1110 1127 37.88% 33.27% 28.85%+0.19 -5.4 14
2019-11-02 @ Kom Podgorica W 2-149.9 1127 1110 28.85% 33.27% 37.88%-0.19 +5.4 18
2019-11-09 Petrovac L 1-253.4 1132 1020 55.21% 27.84% 16.95%+0.94 -7.1 18
2019-11-09 @ Titograd W 2-153.4 1020 1132 16.95% 27.84% 55.21%-0.94 +7.1 14
2019-11-09 Podgorica W 2-144.3 1180 1125 47.77% 30.99% 21.24%+0.60 +3.5 31
2019-11-09 @ Iskra L 1-244.3 1125 1180 21.24% 30.99% 47.77%-0.60 -3.5 18
2019-11-09 Zeta D 1-151.2 1051 1170 24.60% 32.38% 43.02%-0.40 +0.5 15
2019-11-09 @ Rudar D 1-151.2 1170 1051 43.02% 32.38% 24.60%+0.40 -0.5 22
2019-11-10 Kom Podgorica W 2-030.2 1284 1104 63.36% 23.33% 13.30%+1.33 +4.2 31
2019-11-10 @ Sutjeska L 0-230.2 1104 1284 13.30% 23.33% 63.36%-1.33 -4.2 14
2019-11-23 Grbalj W 2-033.5 1169 1081 52.08% 29.30% 18.62%+0.79 +6.2 25
2019-11-23 @ Zeta L 0-233.5 1081 1169 18.62% 29.30% 52.08%-0.79 -6.2 9
2019-11-23 Iskra D 1-151.0 1100 1183 28.67% 33.24% 38.08%-0.20 +0.3 15
2019-11-23 @ Kom Podgorica D 1-151.0 1183 1100 38.08% 33.24% 28.67%+0.20 -0.3 32
2019-11-23 Rudar W 3-032.5 1122 1051 49.83% 30.23% 19.94%+0.69 +9.6 21
2019-11-23 @ Podgorica L 0-332.5 1051 1122 19.94% 30.23% 49.83%-0.69 -9.6 15
2019-11-23 Sutjeska L 0-429.2 1027 1288 14.17% 24.57% 61.26%-1.22 -8.6 14
2019-11-23 @ Petrovac W 4-029.2 1288 1027 61.26% 24.57% 14.17%+1.22 +8.6 34
2019-11-23 Titograd W 2-142.0 1239 1125 55.42% 27.73% 16.85%+0.95 +2.8 32
2019-11-23 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 1-242.0 1125 1239 16.85% 27.73% 55.42%-0.95 -2.8 18
2019-12-01 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-243.3 1297 1242 47.80% 30.98% 21.22%+0.60 -12.8 34
2019-12-01 @ Sutjeska W 2-043.3 1242 1297 21.22% 30.98% 47.80%-0.60 +12.9 35
2019-12-01 Grbalj W 1-038.3 1122 1075 46.74% 31.34% 21.92%+0.56 +3.8 21
2019-12-01 @ Titograd L 0-138.3 1075 1122 21.92% 31.34% 46.74%-0.56 -3.8 9
2019-12-01 Kom Podgorica W 3-254.0 1042 1100 31.98% 33.51% 34.51%-0.05 +4.8 18
2019-12-01 @ Rudar L 2-354.0 1100 1042 34.51% 33.51% 31.98%+0.05 -4.8 15
2019-12-01 Petrovac L 1-254.3 1183 1018 61.61% 24.37% 14.02%+1.24 -7.7 32
2019-12-01 @ Iskra W 2-154.3 1018 1183 14.02% 24.37% 61.61%-1.24 +7.7 17
2019-12-01 Zeta W 2-038.9 1131 1175 34.05% 33.52% 32.44%+0.03 +9.8 24
2019-12-01 @ Podgorica L 0-238.9 1175 1131 32.44% 33.52% 34.05%-0.03 -9.8 25
2019-12-05 Iskra W 1-037.2 1255 1175 50.98% 29.77% 19.25%+0.74 +3.4 38
2019-12-05 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-137.2 1175 1255 19.25% 29.77% 50.98%-0.74 -3.4 32
2019-12-05 Podgorica D 1-150.8 1095 1141 33.80% 33.52% 32.68%+0.02 -0.0 16
2019-12-05 @ Kom Podgorica D 1-150.8 1141 1095 32.68% 33.52% 33.80%-0.02 +0.0 25
2019-12-05 Rudar L 1-443.8 1026 1047 37.40% 33.32% 29.28%+0.17 -13.2 17
2019-12-05 @ Petrovac W 4-143.8 1047 1026 29.28% 33.32% 37.40%-0.17 +13.2 21
2019-12-05 Sutjeska D 1-152.7 1071 1284 16.90% 27.78% 55.32%-0.94 +1.2 10
2019-12-05 @ Grbalj D 1-152.7 1284 1071 55.32% 27.78% 16.90%+0.94 -1.2 35
2019-12-05 Titograd W 1-038.6 1166 1126 45.73% 31.65% 22.62%+0.51 +4.0 28
2019-12-05 @ Zeta L 0-138.6 1126 1166 22.62% 31.65% 45.73%-0.51 -4.0 21
2019-12-11 Iskra W 3-147.3 1073 1172 26.74% 32.92% 40.34%-0.29 +9.8 13
2019-12-11 @ Grbalj L 1-347.3 1172 1073 40.34% 32.92% 26.74%+0.29 -9.8 32
2019-12-11 Podgorica D 1-151.3 1013 1141 23.63% 32.05% 44.31%-0.45 +0.6 18
2019-12-11 @ Petrovac D 1-151.3 1141 1013 44.31% 32.05% 23.63%+0.45 -0.6 26
2019-12-11 Rudar W 2-029.5 1258 1060 65.49% 22.04% 12.47%+1.43 +3.8 41
2019-12-11 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-229.5 1060 1258 12.47% 22.04% 65.49%-1.43 -3.8 21
2019-12-11 Sutjeska D 1-151.9 1122 1283 20.67% 30.68% 48.65%-0.64 +0.9 22
2019-12-11 @ Titograd D 1-151.9 1283 1122 48.65% 30.68% 20.67%+0.64 -0.8 36
2019-12-11 Zeta W 1-043.4 1095 1170 29.87% 33.38% 36.75%-0.14 +5.7 19
2019-12-11 @ Kom Podgorica L 0-143.4 1170 1095 36.75% 33.38% 29.87%+0.14 -5.6 28
2019-12-15 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-432.2 1082 1262 19.17% 29.71% 51.12%-0.75 -12.1 13
2019-12-15 @ Grbalj W 4-032.2 1262 1082 51.12% 29.71% 19.17%+0.75 +12.1 44
2020-02-17 Titograd W 3-033.8 1162 1123 45.70% 31.66% 22.64%+0.51 +10.8 35
2020-02-17 @ Iskra L 0-333.8 1123 1162 22.64% 31.66% 45.70%-0.51 -10.8 22
2020-02-18 Buducnost Podgorica D 1-151.5 1141 1274 23.12% 31.86% 45.02%-0.48 +0.7 27
2020-02-18 @ Podgorica D 1-151.5 1274 1141 45.02% 31.86% 23.12%+0.48 -0.6 45
2020-02-18 Grbalj W 3-143.8 1056 1070 38.28% 33.22% 28.50%+0.20 +7.7 24
2020-02-18 @ Rudar L 1-343.8 1070 1056 28.50% 33.22% 38.28%-0.20 -7.7 13
2020-02-18 Petrovac L 0-146.7 1101 1013 52.06% 29.30% 18.63%+0.79 -7.3 19
2020-02-18 @ Kom Podgorica W 1-046.7 1013 1101 18.63% 29.30% 52.06%-0.79 +7.2 21
2020-02-18 Sutjeska L 1-342.7 1164 1282 24.69% 32.40% 42.90%-0.39 -6.9 28
2020-02-18 @ Zeta W 3-142.7 1282 1164 42.90% 32.40% 24.69%+0.39 +6.9 39
2020-02-22 Iskra D 1-152.9 1289 1173 55.63% 27.62% 16.74%+0.96 -1.2 40
2020-02-22 @ Sutjeska D 1-152.9 1173 1289 16.74% 27.62% 55.63%-0.96 +1.2 36
2020-02-22 Podgorica D 0-045.7 1063 1141 29.29% 33.32% 37.39%-0.17 +0.2 14
2020-02-22 @ Grbalj D 0-045.7 1141 1063 37.39% 33.32% 29.29%+0.17 -0.2 28
2020-02-22 Rudar L 1-348.8 1112 1064 46.95% 31.27% 21.78%+0.57 -11.0 22
2020-02-22 @ Titograd W 3-148.8 1064 1112 21.78% 31.27% 46.95%-0.57 +11.0 27
2020-02-22 Zeta D 2-257.6 1021 1157 22.86% 31.75% 45.39%-0.50 +0.5 22
2020-02-22 @ Petrovac D 2-257.6 1157 1021 45.39% 31.75% 22.86%+0.50 -0.5 29
2020-02-23 Kom Podgorica W 2-030.2 1273 1094 63.34% 23.35% 13.31%+1.32 +4.2 48
2020-02-23 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-230.2 1094 1273 13.31% 23.35% 63.34%-1.32 -4.2 19
2020-02-29 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-134.1 1021 1278 14.41% 24.90% 60.69%-1.19 -2.5 22
2020-02-29 @ Petrovac W 1-034.1 1278 1021 60.69% 24.90% 14.41%+1.19 +2.5 51
2020-02-29 Grbalj L 0-145.1 1090 1063 44.00% 32.13% 23.86%+0.44 -6.4 19
2020-02-29 @ Kom Podgorica W 1-045.1 1063 1090 23.86% 32.13% 44.00%-0.44 +6.4 17
2020-02-29 Iskra D 1-151.0 1156 1174 37.79% 33.28% 28.94%+0.18 -0.2 30
2020-02-29 @ Zeta D 1-151.0 1174 1156 28.94% 33.28% 37.79%-0.18 +0.2 37
2020-02-29 Sutjeska W 5-146.1 1075 1288 16.87% 27.75% 55.38%-0.94 +22.6 30
2020-02-29 @ Rudar L 1-546.1 1288 1075 55.38% 27.75% 16.87%+0.94 -22.6 40
2020-02-29 Titograd D 1-151.4 1141 1101 45.77% 31.64% 22.59%+0.52 -0.7 29
2020-02-29 @ Podgorica D 1-151.4 1101 1141 22.59% 31.64% 45.77%-0.52 +0.7 23
2020-03-07 Kom Podgorica L 2-356.2 1102 1083 42.90% 32.41% 24.69%+0.39 -5.6 23
2020-03-07 @ Titograd W 3-256.2 1083 1102 24.69% 32.41% 42.90%-0.39 +5.6 22
2020-03-07 Petrovac D 0-046.3 1069 1019 47.21% 31.18% 21.61%+0.58 -0.9 18
2020-03-07 @ Grbalj D 0-046.3 1019 1069 21.61% 31.18% 47.21%-0.58 +0.9 23
2020-03-07 Podgorica W 1-035.5 1265 1140 56.75% 27.05% 16.19%+1.01 +2.8 43
2020-03-07 @ Sutjeska L 0-135.5 1140 1265 16.19% 27.05% 56.75%-1.01 -2.8 29
2020-03-07 Rudar L 0-243.3 1175 1097 50.74% 29.87% 19.39%+0.73 -13.4 37
2020-03-07 @ Iskra W 2-043.3 1097 1175 19.39% 29.87% 50.74%-0.73 +13.4 33
2020-03-07 Zeta W 4-135.8 1280 1156 56.64% 27.11% 16.25%+1.00 +6.5 54
2020-03-07 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 1-435.8 1156 1280 16.25% 27.11% 56.64%-1.00 -6.6 30
2020-05-30 Grbalj W 1-032.1 1287 1068 67.72% 20.66% 11.62%+1.55 +1.9 57
2020-05-30 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-132.1 1068 1287 11.62% 20.66% 67.72%-1.55 -1.9 18
2020-05-30 Iskra D 0-045.7 1137 1161 36.95% 33.36% 29.69%+0.15 -0.2 30
2020-05-30 @ Podgorica D 0-045.7 1161 1137 29.69% 33.36% 36.95%-0.15 +0.2 38
2020-05-30 Rudar W 2-035.4 1150 1111 45.67% 31.67% 22.66%+0.51 +7.5 33
2020-05-30 @ Zeta L 0-235.4 1111 1150 22.66% 31.67% 45.67%-0.51 -7.5 33
2020-05-30 Sutjeska D 3-361.8 1089 1268 19.21% 29.73% 51.06%-0.75 +0.6 23
2020-05-30 @ Kom Podgorica D 3-361.8 1268 1089 51.06% 29.73% 19.21%+0.75 -0.6 44
2020-05-30 Titograd D 1-150.9 1020 1096 29.55% 33.35% 37.11%-0.16 +0.2 24
2020-05-30 @ Petrovac D 1-150.9 1096 1020 37.11% 33.35% 29.55%+0.16 -0.2 24
2020-06-03 Buducnost Podgorica L 1-339.6 1096 1288 18.23% 28.99% 52.78%-0.82 -5.3 24
2020-06-03 @ Titograd W 3-139.6 1288 1096 52.78% 28.99% 18.23%+0.82 +5.3 60
2020-06-03 Kom Podgorica W 2-034.1 1161 1089 50.04% 30.15% 19.81%+0.70 +6.6 41
2020-06-03 @ Iskra L 0-234.1 1089 1161 19.81% 30.15% 50.04%-0.70 -6.6 23
2020-06-03 Petrovac D 0-050.1 1267 1020 70.87% 18.66% 10.47%+1.72 -2.1 45
2020-06-03 @ Sutjeska D 0-050.1 1020 1267 10.47% 18.66% 70.87%-1.72 +2.1 25
2020-06-03 Podgorica L 0-338.2 1103 1137 35.48% 33.46% 31.05%+0.09 -15.1 33
2020-06-03 @ Rudar W 3-038.2 1137 1103 31.05% 33.46% 35.48%-0.09 +15.1 33
2020-06-03 Zeta L 0-237.4 1066 1157 27.80% 33.12% 39.08%-0.24 -8.8 18
2020-06-03 @ Grbalj W 2-037.4 1157 1066 39.08% 33.12% 27.80%+0.24 +8.8 36
2020-06-07 Iskra W 4-146.0 1022 1168 21.94% 31.35% 46.71%-0.56 +15.5 28
2020-06-07 @ Petrovac L 1-446.0 1168 1022 46.71% 31.35% 21.94%+0.56 -15.5 41
2020-06-07 Podgorica D 1-151.2 1166 1152 42.19% 32.56% 25.24%+0.37 -0.5 37
2020-06-07 @ Zeta D 1-151.2 1152 1166 25.24% 32.56% 42.19%-0.37 +0.5 34
2020-06-07 Rudar D 1-151.0 1083 1088 39.56% 33.05% 27.40%+0.26 -0.3 24
2020-06-07 @ Kom Podgorica D 1-151.0 1088 1083 27.40% 33.05% 39.56%-0.26 +0.4 34
2020-06-07 Sutjeska W 2-036.5 1294 1265 44.25% 32.07% 23.68%+0.45 +7.7 63
2020-06-07 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-236.5 1265 1294 23.68% 32.07% 44.25%-0.45 -7.7 45
2020-06-07 Titograd D 0-045.6 1058 1091 35.62% 33.46% 30.92%+0.10 -0.2 19
2020-06-07 @ Grbalj D 0-045.6 1091 1058 30.92% 33.46% 35.62%-0.10 +0.1 25
2020-06-12 Buducnost Podgorica W 4-146.4 1152 1301 21.68% 31.22% 47.10%-0.57 +15.6 44
2020-06-12 @ Iskra L 1-446.4 1301 1152 47.10% 31.22% 21.68%+0.57 -15.6 63
2020-06-12 Grbalj W 4-133.0 1257 1058 65.66% 21.94% 12.40%+1.44 +4.7 48
2020-06-12 @ Sutjeska L 1-433.0 1058 1257 12.40% 21.94% 65.66%-1.44 -4.7 19
2020-06-12 Kom Podgorica D 1-151.8 1153 1082 49.83% 30.23% 19.94%+0.69 -0.9 35
2020-06-12 @ Podgorica D 1-151.8 1082 1153 19.94% 30.23% 49.83%-0.69 +0.9 25
2020-06-12 Petrovac L 0-242.6 1088 1037 47.29% 31.16% 21.56%+0.58 -12.8 34
2020-06-12 @ Rudar W 2-042.6 1037 1088 21.56% 31.16% 47.29%-0.58 +12.8 31
2020-06-12 Zeta D 0-045.7 1091 1165 29.83% 33.37% 36.80%-0.14 +0.2 26
2020-06-12 @ Titograd D 0-045.7 1165 1091 36.80% 33.37% 29.83%+0.14 -0.2 38
2020-06-16 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-431.1 1076 1286 17.05% 27.93% 55.03%-0.93 -10.7 34
2020-06-16 @ Rudar W 4-031.1 1286 1076 55.03% 27.93% 17.05%+0.93 +10.7 66
2020-06-16 Grbalj W 2-141.9 1168 1053 55.56% 27.66% 16.78%+0.95 +2.8 47
2020-06-16 @ Iskra L 1-241.9 1053 1168 16.78% 27.66% 55.56%-0.95 -2.8 19
2020-06-16 Kom Podgorica D 1-152.0 1165 1083 51.32% 29.62% 19.05%+0.76 -1.0 39
2020-06-16 @ Zeta D 1-152.0 1083 1165 19.05% 29.62% 51.32%-0.76 +1.0 26
2020-06-16 Petrovac D 1-152.3 1152 1050 53.87% 28.48% 17.65%+0.87 -1.1 36
2020-06-16 @ Podgorica D 1-152.3 1050 1152 17.65% 28.48% 53.87%-0.87 +1.1 32
2020-06-16 Titograd W 3-136.7 1262 1091 62.32% 23.95% 13.73%+1.27 +3.8 51
2020-06-16 @ Sutjeska L 1-336.7 1091 1262 13.73% 23.95% 62.32%-1.27 -3.8 26
2020-06-21 Iskra W 2-150.0 1087 1171 28.68% 33.25% 38.07%-0.20 +5.5 29
2020-06-21 @ Titograd L 1-250.0 1171 1087 38.07% 33.25% 28.68%+0.20 -5.5 47
2020-06-21 Kom Podgorica W 1-041.6 1051 1084 35.61% 33.46% 30.93%+0.10 +5.0 35
2020-06-21 @ Petrovac L 0-141.6 1084 1051 30.93% 33.46% 35.61%-0.10 -5.0 26
2020-06-21 Podgorica W 1-034.8 1297 1151 59.33% 25.66% 15.00%+1.13 +2.6 69
2020-06-21 @ Buducnost Podgorica L 0-134.8 1151 1297 15.00% 25.66% 59.33%-1.13 -2.6 36
2020-06-21 Rudar W 1-040.8 1050 1065 38.21% 33.23% 28.56%+0.20 +4.8 22
2020-06-21 @ Grbalj L 0-140.8 1065 1050 28.56% 33.23% 38.21%-0.20 -4.8 34
2020-06-21 Zeta D 0-047.4 1266 1164 53.86% 28.49% 17.65%+0.87 -1.2 52
2020-06-21 @ Sutjeska D 0-047.4 1164 1266 17.65% 28.49% 53.86%-0.87 +1.2 40
2020-06-25 Buducnost Podgorica L 0-135.6 1079 1299 16.44% 27.32% 56.24%-0.98 -2.9 26
2020-06-25 @ Kom Podgorica W 1-035.6 1299 1079 56.24% 27.32% 16.44%+0.98 +2.9 72
2020-06-25 Grbalj W 2-033.3 1148 1055 52.80% 28.98% 18.23%+0.83 +6.1 39
2020-06-25 @ Podgorica L 0-233.3 1055 1148 18.23% 28.98% 52.80%-0.83 -6.1 22
2020-06-25 Petrovac D 1-152.5 1165 1056 54.81% 28.03% 17.16%+0.92 -1.2 41
2020-06-25 @ Zeta D 1-152.5 1056 1165 17.16% 28.03% 54.81%-0.92 +1.2 36
2020-06-25 Sutjeska W 1-044.5 1165 1265 26.78% 32.93% 40.30%-0.29 +6.0 50
2020-06-25 @ Iskra L 0-144.5 1265 1165 40.30% 32.93% 26.78%+0.29 -6.0 52
2020-06-25 Titograd D 1-150.8 1060 1093 35.69% 33.45% 30.86%+0.10 -0.1 35
2020-06-25 @ Rudar D 1-150.8 1093 1060 30.86% 33.45% 35.69%-0.10 +0.1 30
2020-06-30 Kom Podgorica L 0-143.2 1049 1076 36.40% 33.41% 30.20%+0.13 -5.6 22
2020-06-30 @ Grbalj W 1-043.2 1076 1049 30.20% 33.41% 36.40%-0.13 +5.6 29
2020-06-30 Petrovac D 1-155.3 1302 1057 70.57% 18.85% 10.58%+1.70 -1.9 73
2020-06-30 @ Buducnost Podgorica D 1-155.3 1057 1302 10.58% 18.85% 70.57%-1.70 +1.9 37
2020-06-30 Podgorica D 0-045.7 1093 1154 31.60% 33.49% 34.91%-0.07 +0.1 31
2020-06-30 @ Titograd D 0-045.7 1154 1093 34.91% 33.49% 31.60%+0.07 -0.1 40
2020-06-30 Rudar W 2-029.5 1259 1060 65.51% 22.03% 12.46%+1.43 +3.8 55
2020-06-30 @ Sutjeska L 0-229.5 1060 1259 12.46% 22.03% 65.51%-1.43 -3.8 35
2020-06-30 Zeta W 3-143.0 1171 1164 41.29% 32.75% 25.96%+0.33 +7.2 53
2020-06-30 @ Iskra L 1-343.0 1164 1171 25.96% 32.75% 41.29%-0.33 -7.2 41

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-12-01 14.02% Petrovac 1018 2 @ Iskra 1183 1
2 2019-08-24 14.65% Podgorica 1114 2 @ Sutjeska 1267 1
3 2020-02-29 16.87% @ Rudar 1075 5 Sutjeska 1288 1
4 2019-11-09 16.95% Petrovac 1020 2 @ Titograd 1132 1
5 2020-02-18 18.63% Petrovac 1013 1 @ Kom Podgorica 1101 0
6 2019-08-24 18.76% Petrovac 1040 2 @ Grbalj 1126 1
7 2020-03-07 19.39% Rudar 1097 2 @ Iskra 1175 0
8 2019-09-14 20.38% Kom Podgorica 1095 2 @ Iskra 1160 0
9 2019-08-14 20.94% Rudar 1064 1 @ Titograd 1122 0
10 2019-12-01 21.22% Buducnost Podgorica 1242 2 @ Sutjeska 1297 0
11 2020-06-12 21.56% Petrovac 1037 2 @ Rudar 1088 0
12 2020-06-12 21.68% @ Iskra 1152 4 Buducnost Podgorica 1301 1
13 2020-02-22 21.78% Rudar 1064 3 @ Titograd 1112 1
14 2020-06-07 21.94% @ Petrovac 1022 4 Iskra 1168 1
15 2019-10-19 23.38% @ Iskra 1161 2 Sutjeska 1292 0
16 2020-02-29 23.86% Grbalj 1063 1 @ Kom Podgorica 1090 0
17 2020-03-07 24.69% Kom Podgorica 1083 3 @ Titograd 1102 2
18 2019-08-18 24.84% Iskra 1152 1 @ Zeta 1170 0
19 2019-10-26 25.21% Podgorica 1119 2 @ Titograd 1133 1
20 2019-10-05 25.29% @ Petrovac 1006 2 Kom Podgorica 1119 1
21 2019-09-14 26.05% @ Titograd 1136 2 Buducnost Podgorica 1242 1
22 2019-12-11 26.74% @ Grbalj 1073 3 Iskra 1172 1
23 2020-06-25 26.78% @ Iskra 1165 1 Sutjeska 1265 0
24 2019-10-19 27.03% @ Rudar 1045 3 Titograd 1142 1
25 2019-10-06 27.57% Iskra 1155 1 @ Titograd 1148 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-02-29 22.61 @ Rudar 5 1075 16.87% Sutjeska 1 1288 55.38% 27.75%
2 2019-09-18 16.60 @ Kom Podgorica 5 1108 47.49% Rudar 0 1056 21.42% 31.09%
3 2020-06-12 15.57 @ Iskra 4 1152 21.68% Buducnost Podgorica 1 1301 47.10% 31.22%
4 2020-06-07 15.47 @ Petrovac 4 1022 21.94% Iskra 1 1168 46.71% 31.35%
5 2019-09-22 15.44 @ Rudar 4 1039 42.27% Petrovac 0 1025 25.18% 32.55%
6 2020-06-03 15.09 Podgorica 3 1137 31.05% @ Rudar 0 1103 35.48% 33.46%
7 2020-03-07 13.42 Rudar 2 1097 19.39% @ Iskra 0 1175 50.74% 29.87%
8 2019-08-31 13.37 Titograd 3 1123 36.95% @ Petrovac 0 1047 29.69% 33.36%
9 2019-12-05 13.19 Rudar 4 1047 29.28% @ Petrovac 1 1026 37.40% 33.32%
10 2019-09-14 13.11 Kom Podgorica 2 1095 20.38% @ Iskra 0 1160 49.12% 30.51%
11 2019-12-01 12.85 Buducnost Podgorica 2 1242 21.22% @ Sutjeska 0 1297 47.80% 30.98%
12 2019-09-18 12.81 Sutjeska 4 1268 30.72% @ Buducnost Podgorica 1 1236 35.84% 33.44%
13 2020-06-12 12.75 Petrovac 2 1037 21.56% @ Rudar 0 1088 47.29% 31.16%
14 2019-10-19 12.23 @ Iskra 2 1161 23.38% Sutjeska 0 1292 44.66% 31.96%
15 2019-12-15 12.13 Buducnost Podgorica 4 1262 51.12% @ Grbalj 0 1082 19.17% 29.71%
16 2019-08-18 11.93 Sutjeska 4 1255 51.65% @ Rudar 0 1071 18.87% 29.48%
17 2020-02-22 10.98 Rudar 3 1064 21.78% @ Titograd 1 1112 46.95% 31.27%
18 2019-11-02 10.91 @ Petrovac 2 1009 28.68% Grbalj 0 1092 38.07% 33.25%
19 2020-02-17 10.83 @ Iskra 3 1162 45.70% Titograd 0 1123 22.64% 31.66%
20 2020-06-16 10.72 Buducnost Podgorica 4 1286 55.03% @ Rudar 0 1076 17.05% 27.93%
21 2019-09-18 10.65 Titograd 2 1142 29.86% @ Grbalj 0 1117 36.76% 33.38%
22 2019-09-22 10.05 @ Sutjeska 5 1280 62.70% Grbalj 0 1106 13.57% 23.73%
23 2019-12-11 9.84 @ Grbalj 3 1073 26.74% Iskra 1 1172 40.34% 32.92%
24 2019-10-19 9.78 @ Rudar 3 1045 27.03% Titograd 1 1142 39.98% 32.98%
25 2019-12-01 9.78 @ Podgorica 2 1131 34.05% Zeta 0 1175 32.44% 33.52%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-05-30 61.8 @ Kom Podgorica 3 1089 19.21% Sutjeska 3 1268 51.06% 29.73%
2 2019-11-02 58.1 @ Podgorica 2 1125 20.72% Sutjeska 2 1285 48.57% 30.71%
3 2019-10-05 57.7 @ Grbalj 2 1093 46.84% Rudar 2 1045 21.86% 31.30%
4 2020-02-22 57.6 @ Petrovac 2 1021 22.86% Zeta 2 1157 45.39% 31.75%
5 2019-09-22 57.2 @ Iskra 2 1151 30.15% Buducnost Podgorica 2 1223 36.45% 33.40%
6 2020-03-07 56.2 Kom Podgorica 3 1083 24.69% @ Titograd 2 1102 42.90% 32.41%
7 2020-06-30 55.3 @ Buducnost Podgorica 1 1302 70.57% Petrovac 1 1057 10.58% 18.85%
8 2019-08-03 54.7 Iskra 3 1148 29.88% @ Grbalj 2 1123 36.75% 33.38%
9 2019-08-24 54.3 Podgorica 2 1114 14.65% @ Sutjeska 1 1267 60.14% 25.21%
10 2019-12-01 54.3 Petrovac 2 1018 14.02% @ Iskra 1 1183 61.61% 24.37%
11 2019-12-01 54.0 @ Rudar 3 1042 31.98% Kom Podgorica 2 1100 34.51% 33.51%
12 2019-10-19 53.5 @ Zeta 1 1173 61.12% Petrovac 1 1012 14.23% 24.65%
13 2019-09-28 53.4 @ Sutjeska 1 1290 59.05% Titograd 1 1147 15.13% 25.82%
14 2019-11-09 53.4 Petrovac 2 1020 16.95% @ Titograd 1 1132 55.21% 27.84%
15 2019-08-24 52.9 Petrovac 2 1040 18.76% @ Grbalj 1 1126 51.84% 29.40%
16 2020-02-22 52.9 @ Sutjeska 1 1289 55.63% Iskra 1 1173 16.74% 27.62%
17 2019-12-05 52.7 @ Grbalj 1 1071 16.90% Sutjeska 1 1284 55.32% 27.78%
18 2020-06-25 52.5 @ Zeta 1 1165 54.81% Petrovac 1 1056 17.16% 28.03%
19 2020-06-16 52.3 @ Podgorica 1 1152 53.87% Petrovac 1 1050 17.65% 28.48%
20 2019-08-25 52.1 @ Buducnost Podgorica 1 1240 50.66% Zeta 1 1164 19.44% 29.90%
21 2020-06-16 52.0 @ Zeta 1 1165 51.32% Kom Podgorica 1 1083 19.05% 29.62%
22 2019-08-31 51.9 @ Kom Podgorica 1 1094 19.96% Sutjeska 1 1264 49.80% 30.24%
23 2019-12-11 51.9 @ Titograd 1 1122 20.67% Sutjeska 1 1283 48.65% 30.68%
24 2020-06-12 51.8 @ Podgorica 1 1153 49.83% Kom Podgorica 1 1082 19.94% 30.23%
25 2020-02-18 51.5 @ Podgorica 1 1141 23.12% Buducnost Podgorica 1 1274 45.02% 31.86%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-09-14 26.9 @ Sutjeska 3 1263 68.87% Petrovac 0 1034 11.20% 19.93%
2 2019-10-26 27.0 @ Buducnost Podgorica 3 1240 68.54% Petrovac 0 1014 11.32% 20.14%
3 2019-10-27 27.1 @ Sutjeska 3 1280 68.41% Rudar 0 1055 11.37% 20.22%
4 2019-11-23 29.2 Sutjeska 4 1288 61.26% @ Petrovac 0 1027 14.17% 24.57%
5 2019-09-22 29.5 @ Sutjeska 5 1280 62.70% Grbalj 0 1106 13.57% 23.73%
6 2019-12-11 29.5 @ Buducnost Podgorica 2 1258 65.49% Rudar 0 1060 12.47% 22.04%
7 2020-06-30 29.5 @ Sutjeska 2 1259 65.51% Rudar 0 1060 12.46% 22.03%
8 2019-11-10 30.2 @ Sutjeska 2 1284 63.36% Kom Podgorica 0 1104 13.30% 23.33%
9 2020-02-23 30.2 @ Buducnost Podgorica 2 1273 63.34% Kom Podgorica 0 1094 13.31% 23.35%
10 2020-06-16 31.1 Buducnost Podgorica 4 1286 55.03% @ Rudar 0 1076 17.05% 27.93%
11 2019-08-05 31.7 @ Buducnost Podgorica 2 1214 58.11% Rudar 0 1078 15.56% 26.33%
12 2019-08-18 32.1 Buducnost Podgorica 3 1231 51.34% @ Petrovac 0 1050 19.04% 29.62%
13 2019-08-18 32.1 Sutjeska 4 1255 51.65% @ Rudar 0 1071 18.87% 29.48%
14 2020-05-30 32.1 @ Buducnost Podgorica 1 1287 67.72% Grbalj 0 1068 11.62% 20.66%
15 2019-12-15 32.2 Buducnost Podgorica 4 1262 51.12% @ Grbalj 0 1082 19.17% 29.71%
16 2019-11-23 32.5 @ Podgorica 3 1122 49.83% Rudar 0 1051 19.94% 30.23%
17 2019-09-28 32.6 Buducnost Podgorica 3 1223 49.70% @ Rudar 0 1054 20.02% 30.28%
18 2019-08-24 33.0 @ Iskra 2 1159 53.61% Rudar 0 1059 17.79% 28.61%
19 2020-06-12 33.0 @ Sutjeska 4 1257 65.66% Grbalj 1 1058 12.40% 21.94%
20 2020-06-25 33.3 @ Podgorica 2 1148 52.80% Grbalj 0 1055 18.23% 28.98%
21 2019-11-23 33.5 @ Zeta 2 1169 52.08% Grbalj 0 1081 18.62% 29.30%
22 2020-02-17 33.8 @ Iskra 3 1162 45.70% Titograd 0 1123 22.64% 31.66%
23 2019-09-18 33.9 @ Kom Podgorica 5 1108 47.49% Rudar 0 1056 21.42% 31.09%
24 2020-02-29 34.1 Buducnost Podgorica 1 1278 60.69% @ Petrovac 0 1021 14.41% 24.90%
25 2020-06-03 34.1 @ Iskra 2 1161 50.04% Kom Podgorica 0 1089 19.81% 30.15%