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2014-15 Macedonian First Football League Season

162 games

Final

Champion

Vardar

61 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rabotnicki

9.42 points above expected

55 points · 45.58 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pelister

8.85 points below expected

23 points · 31.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vardar 27 18 7 2 61 46 15 +31 51.94 +9.06
2 Rabotnicki 27 17 4 6 55 43 23 +20 45.58 +9.42
3 Shkendija 27 14 5 8 47 49 27 +22 45.97 +1.03
4 Renova 27 12 8 7 44 34 27 +7 36.89 +7.11
5 Sileks 27 8 10 9 34 26 34 -8 32.33 +1.67
6 Metalurg Skopje 27 8 9 10 33 31 31 0 41.04 -8.04
7 Bregalnica Shtip 27 7 9 11 30 22 28 -6 30.42 -0.42
8 Turnovo 27 7 9 11 30 21 30 -9 37.48 -7.48
9 Pelister 27 5 8 14 23 16 28 -12 31.85 -8.85
10 Teteks 27 2 5 20 11 17 62 -45 17.33 -6.33
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Bregalnica Shtip 6 6 0 0 18 11 1 +10 — —
2 Shkendija 5 4 0 1 12 9 4 +5 — —
3 Rabotnicki 5 3 2 0 11 12 7 +5 — —
4 Vardar 5 2 2 1 8 10 6 +4 — —
5 Sileks 5 2 1 2 7 7 8 -1 — —
6 Pelister 6 2 1 3 7 5 7 -2 — —
7 Turnovo 6 2 0 4 6 5 7 -2 — —
8 Renova 5 1 1 3 4 7 12 -5 — —
9 Teteks 6 1 1 4 4 5 11 -6 — —
10 Metalurg Skopje 5 0 0 5 0 3 11 -8 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rabotnicki 55 45.58 +9.42
2 Vardar 61 51.94 +9.06
3 Renova 44 36.89 +7.11
4 Sileks 34 32.33 +1.67
5 Shkendija 47 45.97 +1.03

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pelister 23 31.85 -8.85
2 Metalurg Skopje 33 41.04 -8.04
3 Turnovo 30 37.48 -7.48
4 Teteks 11 17.33 -6.33
5 Bregalnica Shtip 30 30.42 -0.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rabotnicki 8 Sep 28 – Nov 22 1 in 755
2 Teteks 1 Nov 30 – Nov 30 1 in 21
3 Vardar 6 Sep 20 – Oct 29 1 in 20
4 Turnovo 3 Sep 1 – Sep 20 1 in 16
5 Shkendija 4 Nov 23 – Mar 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Teteks 11 Aug 27 – Nov 9 1 in 232
2 Metalurg Skopje 3 Nov 30 – Mar 10 1 in 79
3 Bregalnica Shtip 5 Aug 17 – Sep 14 1 in 62
4 Turnovo 3 Aug 3 – Aug 17 1 in 33
5 Shkendija 2 Nov 1 – Nov 9 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bregalnica Shtip 8 Mar 15 – Apr 26 1 in 142
2 Renova 9 Nov 22 – Apr 11 1 in 58
3 Rabotnicki 15 Sep 28 – Apr 7 1 in 47
4 Vardar 15 Aug 3 – Nov 9 1 in 29
5 Sileks 6 Aug 3 – Aug 31 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pelister 17 Sep 21 – Apr 11 1 in 745
2 Metalurg Skopje 6 Nov 30 – Apr 4 1 in 26
3 Teteks 16 Aug 2 – Nov 23 1 in 23
4 Turnovo 6 Sep 28 – Nov 2 1 in 17
5 Bregalnica Shtip 8 Aug 17 – Oct 5 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vardar 1490 69 +7 8 9.7 -1.7
Rabotnicki 1444 66 +40 11 8.5 +2.5
Shkendija 1455 59 +40 12 9.0 +3.0
Bregalnica Shtip 1316 48 +73 15 9.6 +5.4
Renova 1307 48 -62 4 6.7 -2.7
Sileks 1186 41 +51 7 3.2 +3.8
Turnovo 1093 36 -54 6 7.5 -1.5
Metalurg Skopje 1145 33 -77 0 4.2 -4.2
Pelister 1073 30 -43 4 6.9 -2.9
Teteks 992 15 +25 4 3.4 +0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BS MS PEL RAB REN SHK SIL TET TUR VAR
Bregalnica Shtip —
0-1-2
2.91
2-1-0
4.12
0-1-2
2.20
1-0-2
3.29
0-1-2
2.45
1-2-0
3.98
2-1-0
5.52
1-1-1
3.55
0-1-2
2.07
Metalurg Skopje
2-1-0
5.31
—
2-1-0
5.22
1-1-1
3.55
1-0-2
4.13
0-2-1
3.44
0-2-1
5.06
1-1-1
6.81
1-1-1
4.76
0-0-3
2.87
Pelister
0-1-2
4.09
0-1-2
2.99
—
1-0-2
2.79
1-1-1
3.67
0-1-2
2.66
0-1-2
3.90
2-1-0
6.14
1-1-1
3.74
0-1-2
2.23
Rabotnicki
2-1-0
6.07
1-1-1
4.68
2-0-1
5.45
—
1-0-2
4.97
3-0-0
4.29
2-1-0
5.62
3-0-0
6.54
3-0-0
5.31
0-1-2
3.43
Renova
2-0-1
4.92
2-0-1
4.08
1-1-1
4.56
2-0-1
3.24
—
2-1-0
2.56
0-2-1
4.44
2-1-0
5.57
0-2-1
4.54
1-1-1
2.09
Shkendija
2-1-0
5.78
1-2-0
4.78
2-1-0
5.59
0-0-3
3.90
0-1-2
5.66
—
3-0-0
5.08
2-0-1
7.14
3-0-0
5.10
1-0-2
3.40
Sileks
0-2-1
4.22
1-2-0
3.16
2-1-0
4.30
0-1-2
2.63
1-2-0
3.77
0-0-3
3.13
—
3-0-0
6.06
1-2-0
2.94
0-0-3
1.96
Teteks
0-1-2
2.72
1-1-1
1.53
0-1-2
2.12
0-0-3
1.78
0-1-2
2.67
1-0-2
1.24
0-0-3
2.19
—
0-0-3
2.33
0-1-2
1.24
Turnovo
1-1-1
4.65
1-1-1
3.44
1-1-1
4.46
0-0-3
2.94
1-2-0
3.67
0-0-3
3.11
0-2-1
5.27
3-0-0
5.93
—
0-2-1
2.15
Vardar
2-1-0
6.21
3-0-0
5.37
2-1-0
6.05
2-1-0
4.77
1-1-1
6.18
2-0-1
4.80
3-0-0
6.30
2-1-0
7.17
1-2-0
6.10
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +11.3
Allowed 0.66 -10.0
Differential 0.93 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.49%10.49%8.02%3.70%1.23%0.93%34.88%
110.49%9.88%5.86%4.63%0.93%0.31%32.10%
28.02%5.86%4.32%0.93%—0.31%19.44%
33.70%4.63%0.93%0.62%——9.88%
41.23%0.93%————2.16%
5+0.93%0.31%0.31%———1.54%
Total34.88%32.10%19.44%9.88%2.16%1.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.79
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 162

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%6.06%—3.03%3.03%—30.30%
121.21%9.09%18.18%3.03%——51.52%
29.09%3.03%————12.12%
3———————
43.03%3.03%————6.06%
5+———————
Total51.52%21.21%18.18%6.06%3.03%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.88 +0.12
SD 1.00 1.11 1.60
CV 1.00 1.26 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%3.12%12.50%———28.12%
19.38%9.38%18.75%9.38%3.12%—50.00%
23.12%—6.25%———9.38%
39.38%3.12%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.38%15.62%37.50%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.31 -0.25
SD 0.95 1.15 1.61
CV 0.89 0.87 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.12%33.33%9.09%——3.03%57.58%
19.09%12.12%—6.06%——27.27%
26.06%—3.03%———9.09%
33.03%3.03%————6.06%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.30%48.48%12.12%6.06%—3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.64 1.06 -0.42
SD 0.90 1.09 1.52
CV 1.41 1.03 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%9.38%3.12%——25.00%
112.50%—3.12%———15.62%
212.50%12.50%6.25%———31.25%
33.12%12.50%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total40.62%31.25%21.88%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.94 +0.78
SD 1.33 0.95 1.66
CV 0.77 1.01 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%9.38%6.25%6.25%——28.12%
19.38%15.62%—3.12%3.12%—31.25%
26.25%15.62%3.12%3.12%——28.12%
33.12%3.12%—3.12%——9.38%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%43.75%9.38%15.62%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.08 1.13 1.68
CV 0.85 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%12.50%—3.12%——21.88%
19.38%6.25%6.25%3.12%——25.00%
26.25%12.50%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
36.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+6.25%—3.12%———9.38%
Total37.50%37.50%15.62%9.38%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 0.97 +0.84
SD 1.51 0.97 1.92
CV 0.83 1.00 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%3.12%18.75%9.38%——34.38%
112.50%25.00%—3.12%——40.62%
23.12%3.12%6.25%———12.50%
3—12.50%————12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.75%43.75%25.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.31 -0.28
SD 1.00 0.93 1.59
CV 0.97 0.71 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%12.12%6.06%6.06%6.06%48.48%
13.03%3.03%9.09%18.18%3.03%3.03%39.39%
23.03%—6.06%———9.09%
33.03%—————3.03%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%12.12%27.27%24.24%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.21 -1.55
SD 0.78 1.52 1.82
CV 1.17 0.69 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.15%21.21%12.12%3.03%3.03%—54.55%
16.06%12.12%3.03%———21.21%
29.09%3.03%———3.03%15.15%
33.03%3.03%3.03%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%39.39%18.18%3.03%3.03%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.79 1.12 -0.33
SD 1.02 1.19 1.61
CV 1.30 1.06 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%3.12%—3.12%——18.75%
112.50%6.25%————18.75%
221.88%9.38%9.38%3.12%——43.75%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total56.25%28.12%9.38%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.66 +1.09
SD 1.24 0.90 1.53
CV 0.71 1.37 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Vardar 1490 61 51.94 +9.06 92.0% 37 43 47 52 56 63 67
Shkendija 1455 47 45.97 +1.03 62.0% 31 36 42 46 51 54 58
Rabotnicki 1444 55 45.58 +9.42 96.0% 33 34 41 46 50 54 60
Bregalnica Shtip 1316 30 30.42 -0.42 55.0% 10 20 26 30 35 41 46
Renova 1307 44 36.89 +7.11 90.0% 25 28 33 37 41 46 53
Sileks 1186 34 32.33 +1.67 67.0% 19 22 27 33 36 43 54
Metalurg Skopje 1145 33 41.04 -8.04 8.0% 30 32 36 40 45 51 59
Turnovo 1093 30 37.48 -7.48 15.0% 24 28 33 38 41 46 58
Pelister 1073 23 31.85 -8.85 8.0% 17 23 28 32 36 42 49
Teteks 992 11 17.33 -6.33 11.0% 7 9 13 16 21 27 32

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 23% * Slight Edge: 23% to 31% * Clear Edge: 31% to 38% * Strong Edge: 38% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.26%
No Edge
41.98%25.31%32.72%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 32.26 Elo pts.
210 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.12 * Tight Race: 0.12 to 0.25 * Comfortable: 0.25 to 0.36 * Runaway: 0.36 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Vardar, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.22/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.82 * Some Luck: 4.82 to 7.23 * Lucky: 7.23 to 9.64 * Wild Swing: 9.64 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.98 * Close: 0.98 to 1.47 * Off: 1.47 to 1.97 * Way Off: 1.97 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.81 points
Some Luck
06.0315
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.232.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Rabotnicki
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
8.00%
Metalurg Skopje
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.9 * Moderate Separation: 1.9 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 70.5% * Clear Edge: 70.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93% * Clear Edge: 93% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56.5% * Some Drama: 56.5% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 163.70
2.21
Strong Separation
11.92.12.32.75
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%65%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.43 * Slight Separation: 0.43 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 18% * Upset-Prone: 18% to 21% * Very Upset-Prone: 21% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Slight Separation
00.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.30
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Strong Carryover
00.410.571
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.10
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.110
Well Within Noise
00.1340.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vardar58.00%20.00%15.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%————
Rabotnicki17.00%25.00%25.00%17.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%2.00%——
Shkendija18.00%31.00%25.00%14.00%5.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%——
Renova—6.00%8.00%14.00%20.00%20.00%16.00%11.00%5.00%—
Sileks2.00%—4.00%3.00%7.00%14.00%22.00%19.00%29.00%—
Metalurg Skopje3.00%14.00%11.00%22.00%17.00%22.00%5.00%6.00%——
Bregalnica Shtip—1.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%5.00%18.00%25.00%31.00%5.00%
Turnovo1.00%2.00%8.00%15.00%30.00%15.00%11.00%14.00%4.00%—
Pelister1.00%1.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%14.00%21.00%19.00%26.00%4.00%
Teteks——————1.00%3.00%5.00%91.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Rabotnicki 99.00% 1.00% —
Shkendija 100% — —
Vardar 100% — —
Renova 91.00% 8.00% 1.00%
Metalurg Skopje 93.00% 5.00% 2.00%
Turnovo 82.00% 13.00% 5.00%
Bregalnica Shtip 45.00% 30.00% 25.00%
Sileks 45.00% 24.00% 31.00%
Pelister 45.00% 16.00% 39.00%
Teteks — 3.00% 97.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-08-02 Teteks D 0-048.5 1205 1183 44.46% 26.68% 28.86%+0.26 -1.7 1
2014-08-02 @ Renova D 0-048.5 1183 1205 28.86% 26.68% 44.46%-0.26 +1.7 1
2014-08-03 Bregalnica Shtip W 2-144.6 1309 1228 51.69% 26.18% 22.13%+0.54 +11.7 3
2014-08-03 @ Shkendija L 1-244.6 1228 1309 22.13% 26.18% 51.69%-0.54 -11.7 0
2014-08-03 Turnovo W 2-042.9 1167 1291 25.05% 26.45% 48.50%-0.44 +43.2 3
2014-08-03 @ Sileks L 0-242.9 1291 1167 48.50% 26.45% 25.05%+0.44 -43.2 0
2014-08-03 Vardar L 0-140.2 1207 1301 28.59% 26.67% 44.74%-0.29 -15.2 0
2014-08-03 @ Pelister W 1-040.2 1301 1207 44.74% 26.67% 28.59%+0.29 +15.2 3
2014-08-04 Metalurg Skopje L 0-340.4 1312 1298 43.34% 26.73% 29.93%+0.22 -57.1 0
2014-08-04 @ Rabotnicki W 3-040.4 1298 1312 29.93% 26.73% 43.34%-0.22 +57.2 3
2014-08-09 Rabotnicki W 2-149.6 1204 1255 34.25% 26.83% 38.92%-0.09 +18.1 4
2014-08-09 @ Renova L 1-249.6 1255 1204 38.92% 26.83% 34.25%+0.09 -18.1 0
2014-08-10 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-142.5 1185 1216 37.03% 26.85% 36.12%+0.00 -18.5 1
2014-08-10 @ Teteks W 1-042.5 1216 1185 36.12% 26.85% 37.03%+0.00 +18.5 3
2014-08-10 Pelister L 0-146.0 1248 1192 48.64% 26.44% 24.92%+0.42 -23.0 0
2014-08-10 @ Turnovo W 1-046.0 1192 1248 24.92% 26.44% 48.64%-0.42 +23.0 3
2014-08-10 Shkendija W 3-037.4 1317 1321 40.83% 26.80% 32.37%+0.13 +45.8 6
2014-08-10 @ Vardar L 0-337.4 1321 1317 32.37% 26.80% 40.83%-0.13 -45.8 3
2014-08-10 Sileks D 1-154.9 1355 1210 58.21% 25.30% 16.49%+0.84 -4.5 4
2014-08-10 @ Metalurg Skopje D 1-154.9 1210 1355 16.49% 25.30% 58.21%-0.84 +4.5 4
2014-08-16 Teteks W 3-141.3 1237 1166 50.41% 26.30% 23.29%+0.49 +21.1 3
2014-08-16 @ Rabotnicki L 1-341.3 1166 1237 23.29% 26.30% 50.41%-0.49 -21.1 1
2014-08-17 Metalurg Skopje L 0-138.9 1215 1350 23.79% 26.35% 49.87%-0.49 -13.2 3
2014-08-17 @ Pelister W 1-038.9 1350 1215 49.87% 26.35% 23.79%+0.49 +13.1 7
2014-08-17 Renova W 1-041.3 1215 1222 40.52% 26.81% 32.67%+0.12 +16.8 7
2014-08-17 @ Sileks L 0-141.3 1222 1215 32.67% 26.81% 40.52%-0.12 -16.9 4
2014-08-17 Turnovo W 5-241.2 1275 1225 47.99% 26.49% 25.53%+0.39 +27.8 6
2014-08-17 @ Shkendija L 2-541.2 1225 1275 25.53% 26.49% 47.99%-0.39 -27.9 0
2014-08-17 Vardar L 1-245.8 1234 1362 24.59% 26.41% 49.00%-0.46 -12.7 3
2014-08-17 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-145.8 1362 1234 49.00% 26.41% 24.59%+0.46 +12.7 9
2014-08-23 Shkendija D 1-155.4 1364 1303 49.21% 26.40% 24.39%+0.44 -2.5 8
2014-08-23 @ Metalurg Skopje D 1-155.4 1303 1364 24.39% 26.40% 49.21%-0.44 +2.5 7
2014-08-23 Sileks D 0-048.7 1258 1232 44.89% 26.66% 28.44%+0.28 -1.8 4
2014-08-23 @ Rabotnicki D 0-048.7 1232 1258 28.44% 26.66% 44.89%-0.28 +1.8 8
2014-08-24 Bregalnica Shtip W 2-148.4 1197 1222 38.01% 26.84% 35.15%+0.04 +16.8 3
2014-08-24 @ Turnovo L 1-248.4 1222 1197 35.15% 26.84% 38.01%-0.04 -16.8 3
2014-08-24 Pelister L 0-240.9 1205 1202 41.83% 26.78% 31.40%+0.17 -38.2 4
2014-08-24 @ Renova W 2-040.9 1202 1205 31.40% 26.78% 41.83%-0.17 +38.2 6
2014-08-24 Vardar D 2-260.9 1145 1375 15.24% 25.01% 59.75%-0.94 +3.6 2
2014-08-24 @ Teteks D 2-260.9 1375 1145 59.75% 25.01% 15.24%+0.94 -3.6 10
2014-08-27 Metalurg Skopje L 0-138.2 1205 1361 21.62% 26.12% 52.26%-0.59 -12.2 3
2014-08-27 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 1-038.2 1361 1205 52.26% 26.12% 21.62%+0.59 +12.2 11
2014-08-27 Rabotnicki W 1-041.8 1240 1256 39.28% 26.83% 33.89%+0.08 +17.3 9
2014-08-27 @ Pelister L 0-141.8 1256 1240 33.89% 26.83% 39.28%-0.08 -17.3 4
2014-08-27 Renova D 1-154.5 1306 1167 57.70% 25.39% 16.91%+0.82 -4.4 8
2014-08-27 @ Shkendija D 1-154.5 1167 1306 16.91% 25.39% 57.70%-0.82 +4.4 5
2014-08-27 Teteks W 3-140.8 1234 1149 52.08% 26.14% 21.78%+0.56 +20.0 11
2014-08-27 @ Sileks L 1-340.8 1149 1234 21.78% 26.14% 52.08%-0.56 -20.0 2
2014-08-27 Turnovo D 0-049.6 1372 1214 59.45% 25.07% 15.48%+0.90 -5.3 11
2014-08-27 @ Vardar D 0-049.6 1214 1372 15.48% 25.07% 59.45%-0.90 +5.3 4
2014-08-30 Shkendija W 3-255.2 1239 1301 32.65% 26.81% 40.54%-0.14 +17.7 7
2014-08-30 @ Rabotnicki L 2-355.2 1301 1239 40.54% 26.81% 32.65%+0.14 -17.7 8
2014-08-31 Bregalnica Shtip W 2-148.2 1171 1193 38.40% 26.84% 34.76%+0.05 +16.6 8
2014-08-31 @ Renova L 1-248.2 1193 1171 34.76% 26.84% 38.40%-0.05 -16.6 3
2014-08-31 Pelister D 1-154.2 1254 1258 40.90% 26.80% 32.30%+0.13 -0.8 12
2014-08-31 @ Sileks D 1-154.2 1258 1254 32.30% 26.80% 40.90%-0.13 +0.8 10
2014-08-31 Vardar L 1-446.5 1373 1366 42.39% 26.76% 30.85%+0.19 -47.3 11
2014-08-31 @ Metalurg Skopje W 4-146.5 1366 1373 30.85% 26.76% 42.39%-0.19 +47.3 14
2014-09-01 Turnovo L 0-335.3 1129 1219 29.00% 26.69% 44.31%-0.28 -42.1 2
2014-09-01 @ Teteks W 3-035.3 1219 1129 44.31% 26.69% 29.00%+0.28 +42.1 7
2014-09-14 Metalurg Skopje W 1-044.3 1261 1326 32.41% 26.80% 40.79%-0.15 +19.9 10
2014-09-14 @ Turnovo L 0-144.3 1326 1261 40.79% 26.80% 32.41%+0.15 -19.9 11
2014-09-14 Rabotnicki L 1-247.0 1176 1256 30.35% 26.74% 42.91%-0.23 -15.0 3
2014-09-14 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-147.0 1256 1176 42.91% 26.74% 30.35%+0.23 +15.0 10
2014-09-14 Renova D 1-155.6 1414 1188 65.13% 23.71% 11.17%+1.23 -6.0 15
2014-09-14 @ Vardar D 1-155.6 1188 1414 11.17% 23.71% 65.13%-1.23 +6.0 9
2014-09-14 Sileks W 3-035.3 1284 1253 45.53% 26.63% 27.84%+0.30 +40.8 11
2014-09-14 @ Shkendija L 0-335.3 1253 1284 27.84% 26.63% 45.53%-0.30 -40.8 12
2014-09-14 Teteks W 3-030.3 1258 1086 60.73% 24.81% 14.45%+0.97 +23.4 13
2014-09-14 @ Pelister L 0-330.3 1086 1258 14.45% 24.81% 60.73%-0.97 -23.4 2
2014-09-20 Turnovo L 2-351.6 1194 1281 29.39% 26.71% 43.91%-0.26 -13.9 9
2014-09-20 @ Renova W 3-251.6 1281 1194 43.91% 26.71% 29.39%+0.26 +13.9 13
2014-09-20 Vardar L 0-236.7 1271 1408 23.67% 26.33% 49.99%-0.50 -24.7 10
2014-09-20 @ Rabotnicki W 2-036.7 1408 1271 49.99% 26.33% 23.67%+0.50 +24.7 18
2014-09-21 Bregalnica Shtip D 1-154.0 1212 1161 48.05% 26.48% 25.47%+0.40 -2.3 13
2014-09-21 @ Sileks D 1-154.0 1161 1212 25.47% 26.48% 48.05%-0.40 +2.3 4
2014-09-21 Metalurg Skopje L 0-135.1 1063 1306 14.34% 24.78% 60.88%-1.00 -8.5 2
2014-09-21 @ Teteks W 1-035.1 1306 1063 60.88% 24.78% 14.34%+1.00 +8.5 14
2014-09-21 Shkendija D 0-049.2 1282 1324 35.44% 26.84% 37.71%-0.05 +0.2 14
2014-09-21 @ Pelister D 0-049.2 1324 1282 37.71% 26.84% 35.44%+0.05 -0.2 12
2014-09-28 Pelister D 0-048.6 1163 1282 25.64% 26.50% 47.86%-0.41 +2.5 5
2014-09-28 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 0-048.6 1282 1163 47.86% 26.50% 25.64%+0.41 -2.5 15
2014-09-28 Rabotnicki L 0-146.1 1295 1247 47.76% 26.50% 25.73%+0.38 -22.6 13
2014-09-28 @ Turnovo W 1-046.1 1247 1295 25.73% 26.50% 47.76%-0.38 +22.6 13
2014-09-28 Renova W 3-031.7 1314 1180 57.28% 25.46% 17.26%+0.80 +27.5 17
2014-09-28 @ Metalurg Skopje L 0-331.7 1180 1314 17.26% 25.46% 57.28%-0.80 -27.5 9
2014-09-28 Sileks W 2-031.9 1432 1210 64.87% 23.78% 11.35%+1.21 +12.8 21
2014-09-28 @ Vardar L 0-231.9 1210 1432 11.35% 23.78% 64.87%-1.21 -12.8 13
2014-09-28 Teteks W 5-028.3 1324 1054 68.25% 22.69% 9.07%+1.44 +23.9 15
2014-09-28 @ Shkendija L 0-528.3 1054 1324 9.07% 22.69% 68.25%-1.44 -23.9 2
2014-10-04 Pelister W 1-037.4 1445 1280 60.16% 24.93% 14.91%+0.94 +8.8 24
2014-10-04 @ Vardar L 0-137.4 1280 1445 14.91% 24.93% 60.16%-0.94 -8.8 15
2014-10-05 Rabotnicki L 1-253.7 1342 1269 50.66% 26.28% 23.06%+0.50 -22.5 17
2014-10-05 @ Metalurg Skopje W 2-153.7 1269 1342 23.06% 26.28% 50.66%-0.50 +22.4 16
2014-10-05 Renova L 0-433.7 1031 1152 25.30% 26.47% 48.23%-0.43 -49.5 2
2014-10-05 @ Teteks W 4-033.7 1152 1031 48.23% 26.47% 25.30%+0.43 +49.5 12
2014-10-05 Shkendija L 1-340.2 1166 1348 19.15% 25.78% 55.07%-0.71 -17.9 5
2014-10-05 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 3-140.2 1348 1166 55.07% 25.78% 19.15%+0.71 +17.9 18
2014-10-05 Sileks D 1-154.3 1272 1197 50.99% 26.25% 22.76%+0.51 -2.9 14
2014-10-05 @ Turnovo D 1-154.3 1197 1272 22.76% 26.25% 50.99%-0.51 +2.9 14
2014-10-18 Renova W 3-033.1 1292 1202 52.62% 26.08% 21.30%+0.58 +32.9 19
2014-10-18 @ Rabotnicki L 0-333.1 1202 1292 21.30% 26.08% 52.62%-0.58 -32.9 12
2014-10-18 Turnovo D 0-048.8 1271 1270 41.60% 26.78% 31.62%+0.16 -1.1 16
2014-10-18 @ Pelister D 0-048.8 1270 1271 31.62% 26.78% 41.60%-0.16 +1.1 15
2014-10-19 Metalurg Skopje W 2-152.4 1200 1319 25.52% 26.49% 47.99%-0.42 +21.4 17
2014-10-19 @ Sileks L 1-252.4 1319 1200 47.99% 26.49% 25.52%+0.42 -21.4 17
2014-10-19 Teteks W 4-135.2 1148 981 60.28% 24.91% 14.82%+0.95 +20.2 8
2014-10-19 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 1-435.2 981 1148 14.82% 24.91% 60.28%-0.95 -20.2 2
2014-10-19 Vardar L 1-250.5 1366 1454 29.35% 26.70% 43.95%-0.26 -14.6 18
2014-10-19 @ Shkendija W 2-150.5 1454 1366 43.95% 26.70% 29.35%+0.26 +14.6 27
2014-10-25 Sileks D 2-260.0 1169 1221 34.06% 26.83% 39.11%-0.10 +0.4 13
2014-10-25 @ Renova D 2-260.0 1221 1169 39.11% 26.83% 34.06%+0.10 -0.4 18
2014-10-26 Bregalnica Shtip W 1-033.3 1469 1168 70.24% 21.92% 7.84%+1.58 +4.7 30
2014-10-26 @ Vardar L 0-133.3 1168 1469 7.84% 21.92% 70.24%-1.58 -4.7 8
2014-10-26 Pelister D 0-049.0 1298 1270 45.22% 26.65% 28.13%+0.29 -1.9 18
2014-10-26 @ Metalurg Skopje D 0-049.0 1270 1298 28.13% 26.65% 45.22%-0.29 +1.9 17
2014-10-26 Rabotnicki L 1-530.5 961 1325 8.06% 22.07% 69.86%-1.58 -14.3 2
2014-10-26 @ Teteks W 5-130.5 1325 961 69.86% 22.07% 8.06%+1.58 +14.3 22
2014-10-26 Shkendija L 0-141.4 1271 1351 30.28% 26.74% 42.98%-0.23 -15.9 15
2014-10-26 @ Turnovo W 1-041.4 1351 1271 42.98% 26.74% 30.28%+0.23 +15.9 21
2014-10-29 Metalurg Skopje W 2-145.9 1367 1296 50.47% 26.29% 23.24%+0.49 +12.2 24
2014-10-29 @ Shkendija L 1-245.9 1296 1367 23.24% 26.29% 50.47%-0.49 -12.2 18
2014-10-29 Rabotnicki L 0-236.5 1221 1339 25.71% 26.50% 47.78%-0.41 -26.4 18
2014-10-29 @ Sileks W 2-036.5 1339 1221 47.78% 26.50% 25.71%+0.41 +26.4 25
2014-10-29 Renova L 0-147.4 1272 1169 53.97% 25.93% 20.10%+0.64 -25.2 17
2014-10-29 @ Pelister W 1-047.4 1169 1272 20.10% 25.93% 53.97%-0.64 +25.2 16
2014-10-29 Teteks W 5-024.3 1473 947 81.67% 15.67% 2.66%+2.66 +6.1 33
2014-10-29 @ Vardar L 0-524.3 947 1473 2.66% 15.67% 81.67%-2.66 -6.1 2
2014-10-29 Turnovo D 1-154.0 1164 1255 28.93% 26.69% 44.38%-0.28 +1.5 9
2014-10-29 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 1-154.0 1255 1164 44.38% 26.69% 28.93%+0.28 -1.5 16
2014-11-01 Pelister W 1-037.5 1365 1246 55.69% 25.70% 18.61%+0.72 +10.7 28
2014-11-01 @ Rabotnicki L 0-137.5 1246 1365 18.61% 25.70% 55.69%-0.72 -10.7 17
2014-11-01 Shkendija W 1-048.3 1194 1379 18.88% 25.74% 55.38%-0.73 +25.8 19
2014-11-01 @ Renova L 0-148.3 1379 1194 55.38% 25.74% 18.88%+0.73 -25.8 24
2014-11-02 Bregalnica Shtip W 3-032.0 1284 1165 55.70% 25.70% 18.60%+0.72 +29.3 21
2014-11-02 @ Metalurg Skopje L 0-332.0 1165 1284 18.60% 25.70% 55.70%-0.72 -29.3 9
2014-11-02 Sileks L 1-337.7 941 1194 13.61% 24.57% 61.82%-1.06 -13.2 2
2014-11-02 @ Teteks W 3-137.7 1194 941 61.82% 24.57% 13.61%+1.06 +13.2 21
2014-11-02 Vardar D 0-051.1 1253 1479 15.55% 25.09% 59.37%-0.92 +5.3 17
2014-11-02 @ Turnovo D 0-051.1 1479 1253 59.37% 25.09% 15.55%+0.92 -5.3 34
2014-11-09 Metalurg Skopje W 3-141.7 1474 1313 59.72% 25.02% 15.26%+0.92 +14.7 37
2014-11-09 @ Vardar L 1-341.7 1313 1474 15.26% 25.02% 59.72%-0.92 -14.7 21
2014-11-09 Rabotnicki L 1-348.1 1354 1376 38.33% 26.84% 34.83%+0.05 -31.0 24
2014-11-09 @ Shkendija W 3-148.1 1376 1354 34.83% 26.84% 38.33%-0.05 +31.0 31
2014-11-09 Renova W 2-041.3 1136 1220 29.80% 26.72% 43.48%-0.25 +39.4 12
2014-11-09 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-241.3 1220 1136 43.48% 26.72% 29.80%+0.25 -39.4 19
2014-11-09 Sileks L 0-145.0 1236 1208 45.17% 26.65% 28.18%+0.29 -21.6 17
2014-11-09 @ Pelister W 1-045.0 1208 1236 28.18% 26.65% 45.17%-0.29 +21.6 24
2014-11-09 Teteks W 2-028.5 1259 927 72.12% 21.11% 6.77%+1.73 +7.5 20
2014-11-09 @ Turnovo L 0-228.5 927 1259 6.77% 21.11% 72.12%-1.73 -7.5 2
2014-11-22 Bregalnica Shtip W 4-029.3 1407 1175 65.56% 23.58% 10.87%+1.26 +23.3 34
2014-11-22 @ Rabotnicki L 0-429.3 1175 1407 10.87% 23.58% 65.56%-1.26 -23.3 12
2014-11-22 Vardar W 3-046.8 1181 1489 10.51% 23.42% 66.07%-1.31 +83.1 22
2014-11-22 @ Renova L 0-346.8 1489 1181 66.07% 23.42% 10.51%+1.31 -83.1 37
2014-11-23 Pelister D 1-154.7 920 1214 11.22% 23.73% 65.05%-1.25 +6.0 3
2014-11-23 @ Teteks D 1-154.7 1214 920 65.05% 23.73% 11.22%+1.25 -6.0 18
2014-11-23 Shkendija L 0-140.4 1229 1323 28.66% 26.67% 44.67%-0.29 -15.2 24
2014-11-23 @ Sileks W 1-040.4 1323 1229 44.67% 26.67% 28.66%+0.29 +15.2 27
2014-11-23 Turnovo W 2-037.1 1299 1266 45.76% 26.62% 27.62%+0.31 +27.9 24
2014-11-23 @ Metalurg Skopje L 0-237.1 1266 1299 27.62% 26.62% 45.76%-0.31 -27.9 20
2014-11-30 Pelister W 5-032.2 1338 1208 56.79% 25.53% 17.67%+0.77 +45.1 30
2014-11-30 @ Shkendija L 0-532.2 1208 1338 17.67% 25.53% 56.79%-0.77 -45.2 18
2014-11-30 Rabotnicki D 0-052.7 1406 1430 38.01% 26.84% 35.15%+0.04 -0.3 38
2014-11-30 @ Vardar D 0-052.7 1430 1406 35.15% 26.84% 38.01%-0.04 +0.3 35
2014-11-30 Renova D 0-048.7 1238 1264 37.86% 26.84% 35.29%+0.03 -0.3 21
2014-11-30 @ Turnovo D 0-048.7 1264 1238 35.29% 26.84% 37.86%-0.03 +0.3 23
2014-11-30 Sileks D 1-153.9 1152 1214 32.74% 26.81% 40.45%-0.14 +0.7 13
2014-11-30 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 1-153.9 1214 1152 40.45% 26.81% 32.74%+0.14 -0.7 25
2014-11-30 Teteks L 0-248.7 1327 926 75.94% 19.20% 4.86%+2.06 -63.9 24
2014-11-30 @ Metalurg Skopje W 2-048.7 926 1327 4.86% 19.20% 75.94%-2.06 +63.9 6
2015-03-01 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-144.1 1163 1153 42.83% 26.75% 30.42%+0.20 -20.7 18
2015-03-01 @ Pelister W 1-044.1 1153 1163 30.42% 26.75% 42.83%-0.20 +20.7 16
2015-03-01 Shkendija L 1-238.2 990 1383 7.00% 21.30% 71.70%-1.72 -3.9 6
2015-03-01 @ Teteks W 2-138.2 1383 990 71.70% 21.30% 7.00%+1.72 +3.9 33
2015-03-01 Turnovo W 1-035.9 1430 1238 62.49% 24.41% 13.10%+1.07 +7.8 38
2015-03-01 @ Rabotnicki L 0-135.9 1238 1430 13.10% 24.41% 62.49%-1.07 -7.8 21
2015-03-01 Vardar L 0-332.7 1213 1405 18.27% 25.64% 56.09%-0.76 -28.9 25
2015-03-01 @ Sileks W 3-032.7 1405 1213 56.09% 25.64% 18.27%+0.76 +28.9 41
2015-03-02 Metalurg Skopje W 3-144.3 1264 1263 41.62% 26.78% 31.60%+0.16 +26.8 26
2015-03-02 @ Renova L 1-344.3 1263 1264 31.60% 26.78% 41.62%-0.16 -26.8 24
2015-03-07 Turnovo W 2-032.5 1438 1230 63.75% 24.09% 12.16%+1.15 +13.7 41
2015-03-07 @ Rabotnicki L 0-232.5 1230 1438 12.16% 24.09% 63.75%-1.15 -13.7 21
2015-03-10 Bregalnica Shtip W 2-143.2 1291 1173 55.56% 25.72% 18.73%+0.71 +10.2 29
2015-03-10 @ Renova L 1-243.2 1173 1291 18.73% 25.72% 55.56%-0.71 -10.1 16
2015-03-10 Metalurg Skopje W 2-142.2 1434 1236 62.95% 24.30% 12.75%+1.10 +7.2 44
2015-03-10 @ Vardar L 1-242.2 1236 1434 12.75% 24.30% 62.95%-1.10 -7.2 24
2015-03-11 Pelister W 2-030.7 1387 1142 66.50% 23.28% 10.21%+1.32 +11.5 36
2015-03-11 @ Shkendija L 0-230.7 1142 1387 10.21% 23.28% 66.50%-1.32 -11.5 18
2015-03-11 Teteks W 3-137.3 1184 986 62.97% 24.29% 12.73%+1.10 +12.4 28
2015-03-11 @ Sileks L 1-337.3 986 1184 12.73% 24.29% 62.97%-1.10 -12.4 6
2015-03-14 Renova L 1-239.4 973 1301 9.57% 22.96% 67.47%-1.41 -5.4 6
2015-03-14 @ Teteks W 2-139.4 1301 973 67.47% 22.96% 9.57%+1.41 +5.4 32
2015-03-15 Metalurg Skopje D 1-154.0 1197 1229 36.96% 26.85% 36.20%+0.00 -0.1 29
2015-03-15 @ Sileks D 1-154.0 1229 1197 36.20% 26.85% 36.96%+0.00 +0.1 25
2015-03-15 Rabotnicki L 1-336.9 1131 1452 9.87% 23.11% 67.02%-1.38 -9.6 18
2015-03-15 @ Pelister W 3-136.9 1452 1131 67.02% 23.11% 9.87%+1.38 +9.6 44
2015-03-15 Shkendija D 0-049.5 1163 1398 14.88% 24.92% 60.20%-0.97 +5.5 17
2015-03-15 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 0-049.5 1398 1163 60.20% 24.92% 14.88%+0.97 -5.5 37
2015-03-15 Vardar L 0-233.7 1216 1441 15.63% 25.11% 59.26%-0.92 -17.3 21
2015-03-15 @ Turnovo W 2-033.7 1441 1216 59.26% 25.11% 15.63%+0.92 +17.3 47
2015-03-21 Bregalnica Shtip D 0-050.8 1462 1169 69.77% 22.11% 8.12%+1.55 -7.8 45
2015-03-21 @ Rabotnicki D 0-050.8 1169 1462 8.12% 22.11% 69.77%-1.55 +7.8 18
2015-03-21 Sileks D 1-154.5 1306 1197 54.75% 25.83% 19.42%+0.68 -3.7 33
2015-03-21 @ Renova D 1-154.5 1197 1306 19.42% 25.83% 54.75%-0.68 +3.7 30
2015-03-22 Pelister D 1-156.3 1459 1121 72.49% 20.94% 6.57%+1.76 -7.5 48
2015-03-22 @ Vardar D 1-156.3 1121 1459 6.57% 20.94% 72.49%-1.76 +7.5 19
2015-03-22 Teteks L 0-152.0 1393 968 77.15% 18.52% 4.33%+2.18 -34.2 37
2015-03-22 @ Shkendija W 1-052.0 968 1393 4.33% 18.52% 77.15%-2.18 +34.2 9
2015-03-22 Turnovo D 0-048.5 1229 1199 45.40% 26.64% 27.96%+0.30 -1.9 26
2015-03-22 @ Metalurg Skopje D 0-048.5 1199 1229 27.96% 26.64% 45.40%-0.30 +1.9 22
2015-04-04 Metalurg Skopje W 2-035.4 1303 1227 51.02% 26.24% 22.74%+0.51 +23.9 36
2015-04-04 @ Renova L 0-235.4 1227 1303 22.74% 26.24% 51.02%-0.51 -23.9 26
2015-04-04 Rabotnicki L 1-237.4 1002 1454 5.31% 19.72% 74.98%-2.00 -2.9 9
2015-04-04 @ Teteks W 2-137.4 1454 1002 74.98% 19.72% 5.31%+2.00 +2.9 48
2015-04-04 Shkendija L 0-333.4 1200 1359 21.39% 26.09% 52.52%-0.60 -33.0 30
2015-04-04 @ Sileks W 3-033.4 1359 1200 52.52% 26.09% 21.39%+0.60 +33.0 40
2015-04-04 Turnovo L 0-140.7 1129 1201 31.35% 26.78% 41.87%-0.19 -16.3 19
2015-04-04 @ Pelister W 1-040.7 1201 1129 41.87% 26.78% 31.35%+0.19 +16.3 25
2015-04-04 Vardar D 0-050.2 1176 1451 12.32% 24.15% 63.52%-1.15 +6.3 19
2015-04-04 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 0-050.2 1451 1176 63.52% 24.15% 12.32%+1.15 -6.3 49
2015-04-07 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-145.2 1217 1183 46.00% 26.61% 27.39%+0.32 -21.9 25
2015-04-07 @ Turnovo W 1-045.2 1183 1217 27.39% 26.61% 46.00%-0.32 +21.9 22
2015-04-07 Pelister W 3-140.5 1203 1112 52.70% 26.07% 21.23%+0.59 +19.6 29
2015-04-07 @ Metalurg Skopje L 1-340.5 1112 1203 21.23% 26.07% 52.70%-0.59 -19.6 19
2015-04-07 Sileks W 2-030.4 1457 1167 69.54% 22.20% 8.26%+1.53 +9.3 51
2015-04-07 @ Rabotnicki L 0-230.4 1167 1457 8.26% 22.20% 69.54%-1.53 -9.3 30
2015-04-08 Renova L 0-148.1 1392 1327 49.77% 26.35% 23.87%+0.46 -23.4 40
2015-04-08 @ Shkendija W 1-048.1 1327 1392 23.87% 26.35% 49.77%-0.46 +23.4 39
2015-04-08 Teteks W 2-027.0 1445 999 78.13% 17.94% 3.93%+2.28 +4.1 52
2015-04-08 @ Vardar L 0-227.0 999 1445 3.93% 17.94% 78.13%-2.28 -4.1 9
2015-04-11 Pelister W 1-036.8 1205 1093 54.99% 25.80% 19.21%+0.69 +11.0 25
2015-04-11 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-136.8 1093 1205 19.21% 25.80% 54.99%-0.69 -11.0 19
2015-04-11 Rabotnicki W 2-046.3 1350 1466 25.95% 26.52% 47.53%-0.40 +42.5 42
2015-04-11 @ Renova L 0-246.3 1466 1350 47.53% 26.52% 25.95%+0.40 -42.5 51
2015-04-11 Turnovo L 1-339.2 995 1195 17.58% 25.52% 56.90%-0.80 -16.6 9
2015-04-11 @ Teteks W 3-139.2 1195 995 56.90% 25.52% 17.58%+0.80 +16.6 28
2015-04-11 Vardar L 0-231.7 1158 1449 11.41% 23.81% 64.79%-1.23 -12.9 30
2015-04-11 @ Sileks W 2-031.7 1449 1158 64.79% 23.81% 11.41%+1.23 +12.9 55
2015-04-14 Metalurg Skopje D 2-261.2 1368 1223 58.34% 25.28% 16.38%+0.85 -3.4 41
2015-04-14 @ Shkendija D 2-261.2 1223 1368 16.38% 25.28% 58.34%-0.85 +3.4 30
2015-04-18 Shkendija W 1-041.9 1423 1365 48.98% 26.42% 24.60%+0.43 +13.5 54
2015-04-18 @ Rabotnicki L 0-141.9 1365 1423 24.60% 26.42% 48.98%-0.43 -13.5 41
2015-04-18 Teteks W 3-140.0 1082 979 54.04% 25.92% 20.04%+0.64 +18.6 22
2015-04-18 @ Pelister L 1-340.0 979 1082 20.04% 25.92% 54.04%-0.64 -18.6 9
2015-04-19 Bregalnica Shtip D 0-048.5 1226 1216 42.82% 26.75% 30.44%+0.20 -1.4 31
2015-04-19 @ Metalurg Skopje D 0-048.5 1216 1226 30.44% 26.75% 42.82%-0.20 +1.3 26
2015-04-19 Renova W 1-043.1 1462 1393 50.26% 26.31% 23.43%+0.48 +13.0 58
2015-04-19 @ Vardar L 0-143.1 1393 1462 23.43% 26.31% 50.26%-0.48 -13.0 42
2015-04-19 Sileks D 1-154.0 1212 1145 49.97% 26.34% 23.70%+0.47 -2.7 29
2015-04-19 @ Turnovo D 1-154.0 1145 1212 23.70% 26.34% 49.97%-0.47 +2.7 31
2015-04-22 Bregalnica Shtip D 0-048.9 960 1217 13.40% 24.51% 62.09%-1.07 +6.0 10
2015-04-22 @ Teteks D 0-048.9 1217 960 62.09% 24.51% 13.40%+1.07 -6.0 27
2015-04-22 Metalurg Skopje D 2-262.1 1437 1225 64.09% 24.00% 11.91%+1.17 -4.3 55
2015-04-22 @ Rabotnicki D 2-262.1 1225 1437 11.91% 24.00% 64.09%-1.17 +4.3 32
2015-04-22 Pelister W 1-038.9 1148 1100 47.65% 26.51% 25.84%+0.38 +14.1 34
2015-04-22 @ Sileks L 0-138.9 1100 1148 25.84% 26.51% 47.65%-0.38 -14.0 22
2015-04-22 Turnovo D 1-155.2 1380 1209 60.57% 24.85% 14.59%+0.96 -5.0 43
2015-04-22 @ Renova D 1-155.2 1209 1380 14.59% 24.85% 60.57%-0.96 +5.0 30
2015-04-24 Vardar W 3-261.1 1351 1475 25.10% 26.46% 48.44%-0.43 +20.5 44
2015-04-24 @ Shkendija L 2-361.1 1475 1351 48.44% 26.46% 25.10%+0.43 -20.5 58
2015-04-26 Renova D 1-155.0 1086 1375 11.55% 23.86% 64.59%-1.22 +5.9 23
2015-04-26 @ Pelister D 1-155.0 1375 1086 64.59% 23.86% 11.55%+1.22 -5.9 44
2015-04-26 Sileks W 2-035.9 1211 1162 47.84% 26.50% 25.67%+0.39 +26.4 30
2015-04-26 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-235.9 1162 1211 25.67% 26.50% 47.84%-0.39 -26.4 34
2015-04-26 Teteks D 0-049.4 1229 966 67.78% 22.85% 9.36%+1.41 -7.3 33
2015-04-26 @ Metalurg Skopje D 0-049.4 966 1229 9.36% 22.85% 67.78%-1.41 +7.3 11
2015-04-28 Rabotnicki W 2-042.8 1454 1433 44.34% 26.69% 28.97%+0.26 +29.0 61
2015-04-28 @ Vardar L 0-242.8 1433 1454 28.97% 26.69% 44.34%-0.26 -29.0 55
2015-04-28 Shkendija L 0-433.3 1214 1372 21.47% 26.10% 52.43%-0.60 -43.3 30
2015-04-28 @ Turnovo W 4-033.3 1372 1214 52.43% 26.10% 21.47%+0.60 +43.3 47

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-05-02 Sileks W 3-136.4 1404 1136 68.14% 22.73% 9.14%+1.43 +8.9 3
2015-05-02 @ Rabotnicki L 1-336.4 1136 1404 9.14% 22.73% 68.14%-1.43 -8.9 0
2015-05-03 Metalurg Skopje W 2-031.8 1483 1222 67.71% 22.88% 9.41%+1.40 +10.6 3
2015-05-03 @ Vardar L 0-231.8 1222 1483 9.41% 22.88% 67.71%-1.40 -10.6 0
2015-05-03 Pelister L 0-146.5 1171 1092 51.38% 26.21% 22.41%+0.53 -24.1 0
2015-05-03 @ Turnovo W 1-046.5 1092 1171 22.41% 26.21% 51.38%-0.53 +24.1 3
2015-05-03 Renova W 3-145.2 1415 1369 47.52% 26.52% 25.96%+0.38 +23.0 3
2015-05-03 @ Shkendija L 1-345.2 1369 1415 25.96% 26.52% 47.52%-0.38 -23.0 0
2015-05-03 Teteks W 1-032.8 1237 973 67.87% 22.82% 9.31%+1.41 +5.6 3
2015-05-03 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-132.8 973 1237 9.31% 22.82% 67.87%-1.41 -5.6 0
2015-05-06 Pelister L 0-234.7 968 1116 22.38% 26.21% 51.41%-0.55 -23.6 0
2015-05-06 @ Teteks W 2-034.7 1116 968 51.41% 26.21% 22.38%+0.55 +23.6 6
2015-05-06 Rabotnicki D 2-266.7 1494 1413 51.64% 26.18% 22.17%+0.54 -2.3 4
2015-05-06 @ Vardar D 2-266.7 1413 1494 22.17% 26.18% 51.64%-0.54 +2.3 4
2015-05-06 Shkendija L 0-230.9 1127 1438 10.33% 23.34% 66.33%-1.33 -11.7 0
2015-05-06 @ Sileks W 2-030.9 1438 1127 66.33% 23.34% 10.33%+1.33 +11.7 6
2015-05-06 Turnovo W 2-143.8 1243 1147 53.28% 26.01% 20.71%+0.61 +11.1 6
2015-05-06 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 1-243.8 1147 1243 20.71% 26.01% 53.28%-0.61 -11.1 0
2015-05-07 Renova L 1-245.3 1211 1346 23.85% 26.35% 49.80%-0.49 -12.4 0
2015-05-07 @ Metalurg Skopje W 2-145.3 1346 1211 49.80% 26.35% 23.85%+0.49 +12.4 3
2015-05-10 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-139.2 1140 1254 26.14% 26.53% 47.32%-0.39 -14.2 6
2015-05-10 @ Pelister W 1-039.2 1254 1140 47.32% 26.53% 26.14%+0.39 +14.2 9
2015-05-10 Teteks W 2-031.4 1136 944 62.42% 24.43% 13.15%+1.07 +14.8 3
2015-05-10 @ Turnovo L 0-231.4 944 1136 13.15% 24.43% 62.42%-1.07 -14.8 0
2015-05-12 Metalurg Skopje W 2-031.8 1415 1198 64.39% 23.92% 11.69%+1.18 +13.2 7
2015-05-12 @ Rabotnicki L 0-231.8 1198 1415 11.69% 23.92% 64.39%-1.18 -13.2 0
2015-05-12 Sileks L 0-150.4 1358 1115 66.38% 23.32% 10.30%+1.31 -30.5 3
2015-05-12 @ Renova W 1-050.4 1115 1358 10.30% 23.32% 66.38%-1.31 +30.5 3
2015-05-12 Vardar W 1-050.3 1450 1492 35.56% 26.84% 37.59%-0.05 +18.7 9
2015-05-12 @ Shkendija L 0-150.3 1492 1450 37.59% 26.84% 35.56%+0.05 -18.7 4
2015-05-16 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-427.7 929 1268 9.07% 22.69% 68.25%-1.46 -19.4 0
2015-05-16 @ Teteks W 4-027.7 1268 929 68.25% 22.69% 9.07%+1.46 +19.4 12
2015-05-16 Renova W 4-139.4 1473 1328 58.31% 25.28% 16.41%+0.85 +22.2 7
2015-05-16 @ Vardar L 1-439.4 1328 1473 16.41% 25.28% 58.31%-0.85 -22.1 3
2015-05-16 Shkendija W 2-155.1 1428 1469 35.73% 26.84% 37.42%-0.04 +17.6 10
2015-05-16 @ Rabotnicki L 1-255.1 1469 1428 37.42% 26.84% 35.73%+0.04 -17.6 9
2015-05-16 Turnovo L 0-239.6 1126 1151 37.95% 26.84% 35.21%+0.03 -35.5 6
2015-05-16 @ Pelister W 2-039.6 1151 1126 35.21% 26.84% 37.95%-0.03 +35.5 6
2015-05-18 Sileks L 1-348.3 1185 1146 46.67% 26.57% 26.76%+0.34 -36.2 0
2015-05-18 @ Metalurg Skopje W 3-148.3 1146 1185 26.76% 26.57% 46.67%-0.34 +36.2 6
2015-05-24 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-139.8 1186 1288 27.67% 26.62% 45.71%-0.33 -14.8 6
2015-05-24 @ Turnovo W 1-039.8 1288 1186 45.71% 26.62% 27.67%+0.33 +14.8 15
2015-05-24 Metalurg Skopje W 2-139.4 1451 1149 70.35% 21.88% 7.78%+1.59 +4.4 12
2015-05-24 @ Shkendija L 1-239.4 1149 1451 7.78% 21.88% 70.35%-1.59 -4.3 0
2015-05-24 Rabotnicki D 3-365.9 1305 1446 23.25% 26.29% 50.45%-0.51 +1.7 4
2015-05-24 @ Renova D 3-365.9 1446 1305 50.45% 26.29% 23.25%+0.51 -1.7 11
2015-05-24 Teteks D 2-260.5 1090 910 61.44% 24.66% 13.90%+1.01 -3.9 7
2015-05-24 @ Pelister D 2-260.5 910 1090 13.90% 24.66% 61.44%-1.01 +3.9 1
2015-05-24 Vardar D 2-262.5 1182 1495 10.24% 23.30% 66.46%-1.34 +4.7 7
2015-05-24 @ Sileks D 2-262.5 1495 1182 66.46% 23.30% 10.24%+1.34 -4.7 8
2015-05-27 Pelister W 2-031.0 1303 1086 64.38% 23.92% 11.70%+1.18 +13.2 18
2015-05-27 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-231.0 1086 1303 11.70% 23.92% 64.38%-1.18 -13.2 7
2015-05-27 Turnovo W 3-044.4 914 1171 13.38% 24.50% 62.12%-1.07 +78.5 4
2015-05-27 @ Teteks L 0-344.4 1171 914 62.12% 24.50% 13.38%+1.07 -78.5 6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-03-22 4.33% Teteks 968 1 @ Shkendija 1393 0
2 2014-11-30 4.86% Teteks 926 2 @ Metalurg Skopje 1327 0
3 2015-05-12 10.30% Sileks 1115 1 @ Renova 1358 0
4 2014-11-22 10.51% @ Renova 1181 3 Vardar 1489 0
5 2015-05-27 13.38% @ Teteks 914 3 Turnovo 1171 0
6 2014-11-01 18.88% @ Renova 1194 1 Shkendija 1379 0
7 2014-10-29 20.10% Renova 1169 1 @ Pelister 1272 0
8 2015-05-03 22.41% Pelister 1092 1 @ Turnovo 1171 0
9 2014-10-05 23.06% Rabotnicki 1269 2 @ Metalurg Skopje 1342 1
10 2015-04-08 23.87% Renova 1327 1 @ Shkendija 1392 0
11 2014-08-10 24.92% Pelister 1192 1 @ Turnovo 1248 0
12 2014-08-03 25.05% @ Sileks 1167 2 Turnovo 1291 0
13 2015-04-24 25.10% @ Shkendija 1351 3 Vardar 1475 2
14 2014-10-19 25.52% @ Sileks 1200 2 Metalurg Skopje 1319 1
15 2014-09-28 25.73% Rabotnicki 1247 1 @ Turnovo 1295 0
16 2015-04-11 25.95% @ Renova 1350 2 Rabotnicki 1466 0
17 2015-05-18 26.76% Sileks 1146 3 @ Metalurg Skopje 1185 1
18 2015-04-07 27.39% Bregalnica Shtip 1183 1 @ Turnovo 1217 0
19 2014-11-09 28.18% Sileks 1208 1 @ Pelister 1236 0
20 2014-11-09 29.80% @ Bregalnica Shtip 1136 2 Renova 1220 0
21 2014-08-04 29.93% Metalurg Skopje 1298 3 @ Rabotnicki 1312 0
22 2015-03-01 30.42% Bregalnica Shtip 1153 1 @ Pelister 1163 0
23 2014-08-31 30.85% Vardar 1366 4 @ Metalurg Skopje 1373 1
24 2014-08-24 31.40% Pelister 1202 2 @ Renova 1205 0
25 2014-09-14 32.41% @ Turnovo 1261 1 Metalurg Skopje 1326 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-11-22 83.10 @ Renova 3 1181 10.51% Vardar 0 1489 66.07% 23.42%
2 2015-05-27 78.55 @ Teteks 3 914 13.38% Turnovo 0 1171 62.12% 24.50%
3 2014-11-30 63.86 Teteks 2 926 4.86% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1327 75.94% 19.20%
4 2014-08-04 57.15 Metalurg Skopje 3 1298 29.93% @ Rabotnicki 0 1312 43.34% 26.73%
5 2014-10-05 49.46 Renova 4 1152 48.23% @ Teteks 0 1031 25.30% 26.47%
6 2014-08-31 47.34 Vardar 4 1366 30.85% @ Metalurg Skopje 1 1373 42.39% 26.76%
7 2014-08-10 45.82 @ Vardar 3 1317 40.83% Shkendija 0 1321 32.37% 26.80%
8 2014-11-30 45.16 @ Shkendija 5 1338 56.79% Pelister 0 1208 17.67% 25.53%
9 2015-04-28 43.27 Shkendija 4 1372 52.43% @ Turnovo 0 1214 21.47% 26.10%
10 2014-08-03 43.21 @ Sileks 2 1167 25.05% Turnovo 0 1291 48.50% 26.45%
11 2015-04-11 42.47 @ Renova 2 1350 25.95% Rabotnicki 0 1466 47.53% 26.52%
12 2014-09-01 42.14 Turnovo 3 1219 44.31% @ Teteks 0 1129 29.00% 26.69%
13 2014-09-14 40.83 @ Shkendija 3 1284 45.53% Sileks 0 1253 27.84% 26.63%
14 2014-11-09 39.44 @ Bregalnica Shtip 2 1136 29.80% Renova 0 1220 43.48% 26.72%
15 2014-08-24 38.24 Pelister 2 1202 31.40% @ Renova 0 1205 41.83% 26.78%
16 2015-05-18 36.22 Sileks 3 1146 26.76% @ Metalurg Skopje 1 1185 46.67% 26.57%
17 2015-05-16 35.49 Turnovo 2 1151 35.21% @ Pelister 0 1126 37.95% 26.84%
18 2015-03-22 34.21 Teteks 1 968 4.33% @ Shkendija 0 1393 77.15% 18.52%
19 2015-04-04 33.02 Shkendija 3 1359 52.52% @ Sileks 0 1200 21.39% 26.09%
20 2014-10-18 32.91 @ Rabotnicki 3 1292 52.62% Renova 0 1202 21.30% 26.08%
21 2014-11-09 30.97 Rabotnicki 3 1376 34.83% @ Shkendija 1 1354 38.33% 26.84%
22 2015-05-12 30.47 Sileks 1 1115 10.30% @ Renova 0 1358 66.38% 23.32%
23 2014-11-02 29.33 @ Metalurg Skopje 3 1284 55.70% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1165 18.60% 25.70%
24 2015-04-28 28.99 @ Vardar 2 1454 44.34% Rabotnicki 0 1433 28.97% 26.69%
25 2015-03-01 28.88 Vardar 3 1405 56.09% @ Sileks 0 1213 18.27% 25.64%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-06 66.7 @ Vardar 2 1494 51.64% Rabotnicki 2 1413 22.17% 26.18%
2 2015-05-24 65.9 @ Renova 3 1305 23.25% Rabotnicki 3 1446 50.45% 26.29%
3 2015-05-24 62.5 @ Sileks 2 1182 10.24% Vardar 2 1495 66.46% 23.30%
4 2015-04-22 62.1 @ Rabotnicki 2 1437 64.09% Metalurg Skopje 2 1225 11.91% 24.00%
5 2015-04-14 61.2 @ Shkendija 2 1368 58.34% Metalurg Skopje 2 1223 16.38% 25.28%
6 2015-04-24 61.1 @ Shkendija 3 1351 25.10% Vardar 2 1475 48.44% 26.46%
7 2014-08-24 60.9 @ Teteks 2 1145 15.24% Vardar 2 1375 59.75% 25.01%
8 2015-05-24 60.5 @ Pelister 2 1090 61.44% Teteks 2 910 13.90% 24.66%
9 2014-10-25 60.0 @ Renova 2 1169 34.06% Sileks 2 1221 39.11% 26.83%
10 2015-03-22 56.3 @ Vardar 1 1459 72.49% Pelister 1 1121 6.57% 20.94%
11 2014-09-14 55.6 @ Vardar 1 1414 65.13% Renova 1 1188 11.17% 23.71%
12 2014-08-23 55.4 @ Metalurg Skopje 1 1364 49.21% Shkendija 1 1303 24.39% 26.40%
13 2014-08-30 55.2 @ Rabotnicki 3 1239 32.65% Shkendija 2 1301 40.54% 26.81%
14 2015-04-22 55.2 @ Renova 1 1380 60.57% Turnovo 1 1209 14.59% 24.85%
15 2015-05-16 55.1 @ Rabotnicki 2 1428 35.73% Shkendija 1 1469 37.42% 26.84%
16 2015-04-26 55.0 @ Pelister 1 1086 11.55% Renova 1 1375 64.59% 23.86%
17 2014-08-10 54.9 @ Metalurg Skopje 1 1355 58.21% Sileks 1 1210 16.49% 25.30%
18 2014-11-23 54.7 @ Teteks 1 920 11.22% Pelister 1 1214 65.05% 23.73%
19 2014-08-27 54.5 @ Shkendija 1 1306 57.70% Renova 1 1167 16.91% 25.39%
20 2015-03-21 54.5 @ Renova 1 1306 54.75% Sileks 1 1197 19.42% 25.83%
21 2014-10-05 54.3 @ Turnovo 1 1272 50.99% Sileks 1 1197 22.76% 26.25%
22 2014-08-31 54.2 @ Sileks 1 1254 40.90% Pelister 1 1258 32.30% 26.80%
23 2014-09-21 54.0 @ Sileks 1 1212 48.05% Bregalnica Shtip 1 1161 25.47% 26.48%
24 2014-10-29 54.0 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1 1164 28.93% Turnovo 1 1255 44.38% 26.69%
25 2015-03-15 54.0 @ Sileks 1 1197 36.96% Metalurg Skopje 1 1229 36.20% 26.85%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-10-29 24.3 @ Vardar 5 1473 81.67% Teteks 0 947 2.66% 15.67%
2 2015-04-08 27.0 @ Vardar 2 1445 78.13% Teteks 0 999 3.93% 17.94%
3 2015-05-16 27.7 Bregalnica Shtip 4 1268 68.25% @ Teteks 0 929 9.07% 22.69%
4 2014-09-28 28.3 @ Shkendija 5 1324 68.25% Teteks 0 1054 9.07% 22.69%
5 2014-11-09 28.5 @ Turnovo 2 1259 72.12% Teteks 0 927 6.77% 21.11%
6 2014-11-22 29.3 @ Rabotnicki 4 1407 65.56% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1175 10.87% 23.58%
7 2014-09-14 30.3 @ Pelister 3 1258 60.73% Teteks 0 1086 14.45% 24.81%
8 2015-04-07 30.4 @ Rabotnicki 2 1457 69.54% Sileks 0 1167 8.26% 22.20%
9 2014-10-26 30.5 Rabotnicki 5 1325 69.86% @ Teteks 1 961 8.06% 22.07%
10 2015-03-11 30.7 @ Shkendija 2 1387 66.50% Pelister 0 1142 10.21% 23.28%
11 2015-05-06 30.9 Shkendija 2 1438 66.33% @ Sileks 0 1127 10.33% 23.34%
12 2015-05-27 31.0 @ Bregalnica Shtip 2 1303 64.38% Pelister 0 1086 11.70% 23.92%
13 2015-05-10 31.4 @ Turnovo 2 1136 62.42% Teteks 0 944 13.15% 24.43%
14 2014-09-28 31.7 @ Metalurg Skopje 3 1314 57.28% Renova 0 1180 17.26% 25.46%
15 2015-04-11 31.7 Vardar 2 1449 64.79% @ Sileks 0 1158 11.41% 23.81%
16 2015-05-03 31.8 @ Vardar 2 1483 67.71% Metalurg Skopje 0 1222 9.41% 22.88%
17 2015-05-12 31.8 @ Rabotnicki 2 1415 64.39% Metalurg Skopje 0 1198 11.69% 23.92%
18 2014-09-28 31.9 @ Vardar 2 1432 64.87% Sileks 0 1210 11.35% 23.78%
19 2014-11-02 32.0 @ Metalurg Skopje 3 1284 55.70% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1165 18.60% 25.70%
20 2014-11-30 32.2 @ Shkendija 5 1338 56.79% Pelister 0 1208 17.67% 25.53%
21 2015-03-07 32.5 @ Rabotnicki 2 1438 63.75% Turnovo 0 1230 12.16% 24.09%
22 2015-03-01 32.7 Vardar 3 1405 56.09% @ Sileks 0 1213 18.27% 25.64%
23 2015-05-03 32.8 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1 1237 67.87% Teteks 0 973 9.31% 22.82%
24 2014-10-18 33.1 @ Rabotnicki 3 1292 52.62% Renova 0 1202 21.30% 26.08%
25 2014-10-26 33.3 @ Vardar 1 1469 70.24% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1168 7.84% 21.92%