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2015-16 Macedonian First Football League Season

135 games

Final

Champion

Vardar

65 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shkendija

7.93 points above expected

63 points · 55.07 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Mladost Carev Dvor

8.53 points below expected

16 points · 24.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Vardar 27 20 5 2 65 59 15 +44 59.51 +5.49
2 Shkendija 27 19 6 2 63 62 21 +41 55.07 +7.93
3 Sileks 27 11 7 9 40 32 32 0 33.39 +6.61
4 Shkupi 27 9 11 7 38 28 25 +3 37.83 +0.17
5 Rabotnicki 27 8 12 7 36 32 26 +6 43.88 -7.88
6 Bregalnica Shtip 27 9 6 12 33 38 43 -5 35.14 -2.14
7 Turnovo 27 8 9 10 33 32 42 -10 28.32 +4.68
8 Renova 27 8 7 12 31 33 37 -4 31.32 -0.32
9 Metalurg Skopje 27 4 4 19 16 20 48 -28 22.94 -6.94
10 Mladost Carev Dvor 27 5 1 21 16 18 65 -47 24.53 -8.53

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shkendija 63 55.07 +7.93
2 Sileks 40 33.39 +6.61
3 Vardar 65 59.51 +5.49
4 Turnovo 33 28.32 +4.68
5 Shkupi 38 37.83 +0.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Mladost Carev Dvor 16 24.53 -8.53
2 Rabotnicki 36 43.88 -7.88
3 Metalurg Skopje 16 22.94 -6.94
4 Bregalnica Shtip 33 35.14 -2.14
5 Renova 31 31.32 -0.32

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Metalurg Skopje 2 Nov 8 – Nov 22 1 in 50
2 Shkendija 9 Dec 10 – Apr 10 1 in 33
3 Mladost Carev Dvor 3 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 21
4 Turnovo 3 Mar 19 – Apr 6 1 in 15
5 Vardar 8 Dec 10 – Apr 6 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Metalurg Skopje 7 Feb 21 – Apr 6 1 in 39
2 Bregalnica Shtip 4 Aug 16 – Aug 29 1 in 34
3 Mladost Carev Dvor 9 Feb 20 – Apr 17 1 in 33
4 Rabotnicki 3 Sep 17 – Sep 27 1 in 17
5 Vardar 1 Nov 22 – Nov 22 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Turnovo 7 Oct 25 – Dec 6 1 in 382
2 Rabotnicki 16 Oct 4 – Mar 19 1 in 121
3 Shkendija 14 Aug 23 – Nov 29 1 in 19
4 Bregalnica Shtip 5 Sep 27 – Oct 28 1 in 10
5 Shkupi 7 Oct 25 – Dec 6 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shkendija 4 Nov 8 – Dec 6 1 in 90
2 Mladost Carev Dvor 11 Sep 27 – Dec 6 1 in 42
3 Bregalnica Shtip 7 Oct 4 – Nov 22 1 in 19
4 Rabotnicki 5 Nov 8 – Dec 10 1 in 14
5 Metalurg Skopje 10 Nov 29 – Apr 6 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Vardar 1567 65 -13 10 10.8 -0.8
Shkendija 1573 63 +37 13 9.8 +3.2
Sileks 1285 40 +12 7 5.8 +1.2
Shkupi 1285 38 -37 4 6.9 -2.9
Rabotnicki 1338 36 -24 4 6.5 -2.5
Turnovo 1197 33 +58 12 6.5 +5.5
Bregalnica Shtip 1258 33 +61 10 7.0 +3.0
Renova 1246 31 +45 9 7.6 +1.4
Metalurg Skopje 1046 16 -40 3 5.0 -2.0
Mladost Carev Dvor 879 16 -100 0 3.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BS MS MCD RAB REN SHK SHK SIL TUR VAR
Bregalnica Shtip —
2-0-1
5.78
2-0-1
5.13
2-1-0
3.51
1-1-1
3.86
0-0-3
2.17
0-2-1
3.73
0-2-1
4.02
2-0-1
4.96
0-0-3
1.50
Metalurg Skopje
1-0-2
2.47
—
2-0-1
4.12
0-1-2
2.22
1-0-2
2.50
0-0-3
1.60
0-1-2
2.24
0-0-3
2.90
0-2-1
3.89
0-0-3
0.87
Mladost Carev Dvor
1-0-2
3.08
1-0-2
4.12
—
0-0-3
2.18
1-0-2
3.24
0-1-2
1.53
0-0-3
2.70
1-0-2
3.09
1-0-2
2.90
0-0-3
1.39
Rabotnicki
0-1-2
4.70
2-1-0
6.04
3-0-0
6.11
—
0-2-1
5.99
0-1-2
2.84
0-3-0
5.33
1-2-0
5.05
2-1-0
6.03
0-1-2
2.01
Renova
1-1-1
4.35
2-0-1
5.74
2-0-1
5.03
1-2-0
2.26
—
0-1-2
1.40
0-1-2
3.07
1-0-2
3.51
1-1-1
5.31
0-1-2
1.39
Shkendija
3-0-0
6.08
3-0-0
6.76
2-1-0
6.84
2-1-0
5.39
2-1-0
6.95
—
3-0-0
6.20
2-0-1
6.75
2-1-0
6.80
0-2-1
3.57
Shkupi
1-2-0
4.49
2-1-0
6.01
3-0-0
5.60
0-3-0
2.89
2-1-0
5.15
0-0-3
2.07
—
1-1-1
4.98
0-2-1
5.03
0-1-2
2.15
Sileks
1-2-0
4.19
3-0-0
5.35
2-0-1
5.15
0-2-1
3.17
2-0-1
4.71
1-0-2
1.57
1-1-1
3.24
—
0-2-1
4.72
1-0-2
1.80
Turnovo
1-0-2
3.26
1-2-0
4.33
2-0-1
5.33
0-1-2
2.22
1-1-1
2.90
0-1-2
1.56
1-2-0
3.18
1-2-0
3.49
—
1-0-2
1.30
Vardar
3-0-0
6.86
3-0-0
7.59
3-0-0
6.96
2-1-0
6.27
2-1-0
6.97
1-2-0
4.65
2-1-0
6.10
2-0-1
6.50
2-0-1
7.06
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +10.7
Allowed 0.76 -9.7
Differential 0.95 +5.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.63%8.52%6.30%5.19%1.48%1.11%32.22%
18.52%11.11%4.44%5.19%1.85%1.11%32.22%
26.30%4.44%4.44%1.11%0.74%0.37%17.41%
35.19%5.19%1.11%———11.48%
41.48%1.85%0.74%———4.07%
5+1.11%1.11%0.37%———2.59%
Total32.22%32.22%17.41%11.48%4.07%2.59%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.31 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 2.02
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%3.70%14.81%7.41%3.70%—37.04%
13.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%—3.70%22.22%
23.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%——18.52%
37.41%—3.70%———11.11%
4—7.41%————7.41%
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total25.93%22.22%29.63%14.81%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.59 -0.19
SD 1.47 1.34 2.32
CV 1.05 0.84 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%18.52%11.11%11.11%3.70%—51.85%
13.70%3.70%11.11%7.41%7.41%—33.33%
27.41%—3.70%———11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total18.52%25.93%25.93%18.52%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.74 1.78 -1.04
SD 1.10 1.28 1.81
CV 1.48 0.72 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.52%14.81%14.81%—11.11%59.26%
1—3.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%3.70%22.22%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total—37.04%22.22%22.22%3.70%14.81%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 2.41 -1.74
SD 0.96 1.50 1.99
CV 1.44 0.62 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%11.11%————29.63%
1—22.22%7.41%3.70%——33.33%
214.81%7.41%3.70%—3.70%—29.63%
33.70%—————3.70%
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+———————
Total37.04%40.74%14.81%3.70%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 0.96 +0.22
SD 1.04 1.02 1.28
CV 0.88 1.06 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%14.81%3.70%3.70%3.70%—37.04%
13.70%14.81%3.70%7.41%3.70%—33.33%
23.70%3.70%—3.70%——11.11%
37.41%3.70%————11.11%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+——3.70%———3.70%
Total25.93%40.74%11.11%14.81%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.37 -0.15
SD 1.37 1.24 1.94
CV 1.12 0.91 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%—————7.41%
13.70%11.11%—7.41%——22.22%
218.52%—3.70%———22.22%
311.11%22.22%————33.33%
43.70%3.70%3.70%———11.11%
5+—3.70%————3.70%
Total44.44%40.74%7.41%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.30 0.78 +1.52
SD 1.27 0.89 1.55
CV 0.55 1.15 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%11.11%3.70%3.70%——33.33%
118.52%18.52%—3.70%3.70%—44.44%
23.70%3.70%7.41%———14.81%
33.70%—————3.70%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total44.44%33.33%11.11%7.41%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 0.93 +0.11
SD 1.13 1.11 1.67
CV 1.09 1.20 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%—29.63%
118.52%7.41%7.41%11.11%——44.44%
2——3.70%———3.70%
37.41%11.11%3.70%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.74%22.22%18.52%14.81%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.19 +0.00
SD 1.11 1.24 1.75
CV 0.94 1.05 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%3.70%11.11%7.41%——29.63%
111.11%14.81%3.70%——3.70%33.33%
23.70%7.41%11.11%—3.70%3.70%29.63%
3—3.70%————3.70%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total25.93%29.63%25.93%7.41%3.70%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.56 -0.37
SD 1.04 1.45 1.82
CV 0.88 0.93 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%—————7.41%
122.22%7.41%3.70%———33.33%
27.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%——22.22%
311.11%7.41%————18.52%
47.41%3.70%————11.11%
5+3.70%3.70%————7.41%
Total59.26%29.63%7.41%3.70%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.19 0.56 +1.63
SD 1.49 0.80 1.69
CV 0.68 1.44 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shkendija 1573 63 55.07 +7.93 91.0% 40 45 51 54 60 65 68
Vardar 1567 65 59.51 +5.49 83.0% 44 50 55 59 64 70 76
Rabotnicki 1338 36 43.88 -7.88 13.0% 30 31 40 43 48 55 66
Shkupi 1285 38 37.83 +0.17 56.0% 24 28 33 38 41 49 58
Sileks 1285 40 33.39 +6.61 90.0% 17 23 29 34 38 43 47
Bregalnica Shtip 1258 33 35.14 -2.14 43.0% 21 24 29 34 40 47 53
Renova 1246 31 31.32 -0.32 49.0% 17 21 27 32 35 40 43
Turnovo 1197 33 28.32 +4.68 87.0% 14 18 25 28 31 38 47
Metalurg Skopje 1046 16 22.94 -6.94 18.0% 11 14 18 23 27 33 36
Mladost Carev Dvor 879 16 24.53 -8.53 5.0% 9 16 22 24 28 34 37

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 23% * Slight Edge: 23% to 31% * Clear Edge: 31% to 38% * Strong Edge: 38% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.93%
Slight Edge
50.37%25.19%24.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
194 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
092.18500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.52 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.48+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.12 * Tight Race: 0.12 to 0.25 * Comfortable: 0.25 to 0.36 * Runaway: 0.36 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
67%
Vardar, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.270.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.89 * Some Luck: 4.89 to 7.34 * Lucky: 7.34 to 9.79 * Wild Swing: 9.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.86 * Close: 0.86 to 1.28 * Off: 1.28 to 1.71 * Way Off: 1.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.88 points
Some Luck
06.1215
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.072.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
Shkendija
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Mladost Carev Dvor
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.9 * Moderate Separation: 1.9 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 70.5% * Clear Edge: 70.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93% * Clear Edge: 93% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56.5% * Some Drama: 56.5% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 209.45
2.40
Wide Separation
11.92.12.32.75
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%65%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
98%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Frequent
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.43 * Slight Separation: 0.43 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 18% * Upset-Prone: 18% to 21% * Very Upset-Prone: 21% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.52
Lopsided
00.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.00
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.56
Some Carryover
00.410.571
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.17
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.24
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1410.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Vardar67.00%32.00%1.00%———————
Shkendija30.00%53.00%13.00%4.00%——————
Sileks——4.00%15.00%23.00%21.00%16.00%12.00%5.00%4.00%
Shkupi1.00%1.00%21.00%29.00%23.00%9.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%—
Rabotnicki2.00%12.00%47.00%21.00%11.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
Bregalnica Shtip—2.00%11.00%22.00%15.00%15.00%17.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%
Turnovo——1.00%3.00%10.00%12.00%21.00%27.00%16.00%10.00%
Renova——2.00%5.00%13.00%28.00%20.00%14.00%11.00%7.00%
Metalurg Skopje———1.00%1.00%5.00%9.00%15.00%27.00%42.00%
Mladost Carev Dvor————4.00%5.00%8.00%14.00%33.00%36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff final Lost relegation playoff
Rabotnicki 99.00% 1.00% —
Shkendija 100% — —
Shkupi 94.00% 6.00% —
Vardar 100% — —
Sileks 84.00% 14.00% 2.00%
Bregalnica Shtip 83.00% 12.00% 5.00%
Renova 72.00% 17.00% 11.00%
Turnovo 44.00% 30.00% 26.00%
Metalurg Skopje 13.00% 11.00% 76.00%
Mladost Carev Dvor 11.00% 9.00% 80.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2015-08-09 Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-138.9 1378 1249 62.00% 24.50% 13.50%+1.14 +13.4 3
2015-08-09 @ Shkendija L 1-338.9 1249 1378 13.50% 24.50% 62.00%-1.14 -13.4 0
2015-08-09 Renova W 4-039.2 1129 1272 29.75% 26.60% 43.65%-0.26 +77.1 3
2015-08-09 @ Turnovo L 0-439.2 1272 1129 43.65% 26.60% 29.75%+0.26 -77.1 0
2015-08-09 Shkupi D 2-261.1 1401 1249 63.86% 24.05% 12.09%+1.26 -4.4 1
2015-08-09 @ Vardar D 2-261.1 1249 1401 12.09% 24.05% 63.86%-1.26 +4.4 1
2015-08-09 Sileks L 1-348.3 1167 1190 46.12% 26.49% 27.39%+0.36 -36.8 0
2015-08-09 @ Metalurg Skopje W 3-148.3 1190 1167 27.39% 26.49% 46.12%-0.36 +36.8 3
2015-08-10 Rabotnicki W 1-043.4 1278 1363 37.73% 26.72% 35.55%+0.04 +18.4 3
2015-08-10 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-143.4 1363 1278 35.55% 26.72% 37.73%-0.04 -18.4 0
2015-08-16 Bregalnica Shtip W 1-042.1 1226 1297 39.73% 26.70% 33.58%+0.11 +17.6 6
2015-08-16 @ Sileks L 0-142.1 1297 1226 33.58% 26.70% 39.73%-0.11 -17.6 3
2015-08-16 Metalurg Skopje D 0-049.1 1253 1130 61.52% 24.61% 13.87%+1.11 -6.0 2
2015-08-16 @ Shkupi D 0-049.1 1130 1253 13.87% 24.61% 61.52%-1.11 +6.0 1
2015-08-16 Renova W 2-143.4 1236 1194 53.62% 25.88% 20.50%+0.69 +11.2 3
2015-08-16 @ Mladost Carev Dvor L 1-243.4 1194 1236 20.50% 25.88% 53.62%-0.69 -11.2 0
2015-08-16 Turnovo W 4-242.0 1345 1206 62.80% 24.31% 12.89%+1.19 +11.5 3
2015-08-16 @ Rabotnicki L 2-442.0 1206 1345 12.89% 24.31% 62.80%-1.19 -11.5 3
2015-08-16 Vardar L 1-352.2 1392 1397 48.31% 26.36% 25.33%+0.45 -38.3 3
2015-08-16 @ Shkendija W 3-152.2 1397 1392 25.33% 26.36% 48.31%-0.45 +38.3 4
2015-08-23 Mladost Carev Dvor W 6-030.4 1435 1247 66.56% 23.27% 10.17%+1.44 +32.8 7
2015-08-23 @ Vardar L 0-630.4 1247 1435 10.17% 23.27% 66.56%-1.44 -32.8 3
2015-08-23 Shkendija L 0-333.1 1136 1353 21.32% 25.98% 52.70%-0.64 -33.8 1
2015-08-23 @ Metalurg Skopje W 3-033.1 1353 1136 52.70% 25.98% 21.32%+0.64 +33.8 6
2015-08-23 Shkupi L 1-253.4 1279 1247 52.59% 26.00% 21.42%+0.64 -23.8 3
2015-08-23 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-153.4 1247 1279 21.42% 26.00% 52.59%-0.64 +23.8 5
2015-08-23 Sileks D 0-048.6 1194 1244 42.58% 26.63% 30.79%+0.22 -1.3 4
2015-08-23 @ Turnovo D 0-048.6 1244 1194 30.79% 26.63% 42.58%-0.22 +1.3 7
2015-08-26 Bregalnica Shtip W 5-134.3 1387 1255 62.23% 24.45% 13.33%+1.15 +24.3 9
2015-08-26 @ Shkendija L 1-534.3 1255 1387 13.33% 24.45% 62.23%-1.15 -24.2 3
2015-08-26 Metalurg Skopje W 1-031.2 1468 1102 76.91% 18.73% 4.36%+2.36 +2.5 10
2015-08-26 @ Vardar L 0-131.2 1102 1468 4.36% 18.73% 76.91%-2.36 -2.5 1
2015-08-26 Renova W 1-037.0 1245 1183 55.82% 25.61% 18.57%+0.80 +11.0 10
2015-08-26 @ Sileks L 0-137.0 1183 1245 18.57% 25.61% 55.82%-0.80 -11.0 0
2015-08-26 Turnovo D 1-153.8 1271 1193 57.42% 25.37% 17.21%+0.88 -4.4 6
2015-08-26 @ Shkupi D 1-153.8 1193 1271 17.21% 25.37% 57.42%-0.88 +4.4 5
2015-08-29 Mladost Carev Dvor L 1-247.4 1100 1214 33.54% 26.70% 39.77%-0.11 -16.6 1
2015-08-29 @ Metalurg Skopje W 2-147.4 1214 1100 39.77% 26.70% 33.54%+0.11 +16.6 6
2015-08-29 Shkendija L 0-333.8 1198 1411 21.64% 26.02% 52.33%-0.63 -34.2 5
2015-08-29 @ Turnovo W 3-033.8 1411 1198 52.33% 26.02% 21.64%+0.63 +34.2 12
2015-08-29 Shkupi D 1-153.4 1172 1267 36.29% 26.72% 36.99%-0.01 +0.1 1
2015-08-29 @ Renova D 1-153.4 1267 1172 36.99% 26.72% 36.29%+0.01 -0.1 7
2015-08-29 Vardar L 0-235.9 1231 1470 19.23% 25.71% 55.06%-0.76 -21.3 3
2015-08-29 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-035.9 1470 1231 55.06% 25.71% 19.23%+0.76 +21.3 13
2015-08-30 Sileks W 2-033.7 1356 1256 59.45% 25.02% 15.53%+0.99 +17.7 6
2015-08-30 @ Rabotnicki L 0-233.7 1256 1356 15.53% 25.02% 59.45%-0.99 -17.7 10
2015-09-13 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-336.2 1083 1210 31.87% 26.66% 41.46%-0.18 -46.5 1
2015-09-13 @ Metalurg Skopje W 3-036.2 1210 1083 41.46% 26.66% 31.87%+0.18 +46.5 6
2015-09-13 Rabotnicki D 1-154.3 1267 1374 34.54% 26.71% 38.75%-0.08 +0.4 8
2015-09-13 @ Shkupi D 1-154.3 1374 1267 38.75% 26.71% 34.54%+0.08 -0.4 7
2015-09-13 Sileks W 3-142.4 1231 1239 47.95% 26.38% 25.66%+0.43 +23.4 9
2015-09-13 @ Mladost Carev Dvor L 1-342.4 1239 1231 25.66% 26.38% 47.95%-0.43 -23.4 10
2015-09-13 Turnovo W 5-130.6 1491 1163 75.05% 19.74% 5.21%+2.17 +9.2 16
2015-09-13 @ Vardar L 1-530.6 1163 1491 5.21% 19.74% 75.05%-2.17 -9.2 5
2015-09-14 Renova W 3-135.8 1445 1172 72.03% 21.20% 6.77%+1.88 +6.7 15
2015-09-14 @ Shkendija L 1-335.8 1172 1445 6.77% 21.20% 72.03%-1.88 -6.7 1
2015-09-17 Rabotnicki W 3-150.3 1166 1373 22.26% 26.09% 51.65%-0.60 +40.6 4
2015-09-17 @ Renova L 1-350.3 1373 1166 51.65% 26.09% 22.26%+0.60 -40.6 7
2015-09-19 Mladost Carev Dvor L 2-357.5 1256 1254 49.17% 26.30% 24.53%+0.49 -21.3 6
2015-09-19 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 3-257.5 1254 1256 24.53% 26.30% 49.17%-0.49 +21.3 12
2015-09-20 Metalurg Skopje D 1-153.7 1154 1037 61.01% 24.71% 14.27%+1.08 -5.2 6
2015-09-20 @ Turnovo D 1-153.7 1037 1154 14.27% 24.71% 61.01%-1.08 +5.2 2
2015-09-20 Shkendija L 2-451.3 1333 1452 32.83% 26.69% 40.49%-0.14 -25.3 7
2015-09-20 @ Rabotnicki W 4-251.3 1452 1333 40.49% 26.69% 32.83%+0.14 +25.3 18
2015-09-20 Shkupi W 1-041.2 1215 1267 42.26% 26.64% 31.09%+0.21 +16.7 13
2015-09-20 @ Sileks L 0-141.2 1267 1215 31.09% 26.64% 42.26%-0.21 -16.7 8
2015-09-20 Vardar D 0-050.8 1206 1501 14.78% 24.84% 60.37%-1.04 +5.7 5
2015-09-20 @ Renova D 0-050.8 1501 1206 60.37% 24.84% 14.78%+1.04 -5.7 17
2015-09-27 Rabotnicki W 2-143.0 1495 1307 66.53% 23.28% 10.19%+1.44 +5.9 20
2015-09-27 @ Vardar L 1-243.0 1307 1495 10.19% 23.28% 66.53%-1.44 -5.9 7
2015-09-27 Renova W 1-045.6 1042 1212 26.42% 26.43% 47.15%-0.40 +23.0 5
2015-09-27 @ Metalurg Skopje L 0-145.6 1212 1042 47.15% 26.43% 26.42%+0.40 -23.0 5
2015-09-27 Shkupi L 0-244.4 1275 1251 51.83% 26.07% 22.10%+0.60 -47.0 12
2015-09-27 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 2-044.4 1251 1275 22.10% 26.07% 51.83%-0.60 +47.0 11
2015-09-27 Sileks W 3-137.3 1478 1232 70.38% 21.90% 7.72%+1.74 +7.7 21
2015-09-27 @ Shkendija L 1-337.3 1232 1478 7.72% 21.90% 70.38%-1.74 -7.7 13
2015-09-27 Turnovo W 3-031.3 1235 1149 58.18% 25.25% 16.58%+0.92 +27.2 9
2015-09-27 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-331.3 1149 1235 16.58% 25.25% 58.18%-0.92 -27.2 6
2015-10-04 Bregalnica Shtip D 1-153.4 1189 1262 39.34% 26.70% 33.96%+0.10 -0.5 6
2015-10-04 @ Renova D 1-153.4 1262 1189 33.96% 26.70% 39.34%-0.10 +0.5 10
2015-10-04 Metalurg Skopje W 2-029.7 1301 1065 69.81% 22.13% 8.06%+1.69 +9.3 10
2015-10-04 @ Rabotnicki L 0-229.7 1065 1301 8.06% 22.13% 69.81%-1.69 -9.3 5
2015-10-04 Mladost Carev Dvor W 1-043.2 1122 1228 34.57% 26.71% 38.72%-0.08 +19.6 9
2015-10-04 @ Turnovo L 0-143.2 1228 1122 38.72% 26.71% 34.57%+0.08 -19.6 12
2015-10-04 Shkendija L 0-239.0 1298 1485 24.40% 26.29% 49.31%-0.49 -26.0 11
2015-10-04 @ Shkupi W 2-039.0 1485 1298 49.31% 26.29% 24.40%+0.49 +26.0 24
2015-10-04 Vardar L 0-333.1 1224 1501 16.09% 25.15% 58.76%-0.95 -26.5 13
2015-10-04 @ Sileks W 3-033.1 1501 1224 58.76% 25.15% 16.09%+0.95 +26.5 23
2015-10-17 Bregalnica Shtip D 0-049.3 1311 1263 54.37% 25.80% 19.84%+0.72 -4.2 11
2015-10-17 @ Rabotnicki D 0-049.3 1263 1311 19.84% 25.80% 54.37%-0.72 +4.2 11
2015-10-18 Metalurg Skopje W 3-137.5 1198 1056 63.07% 24.24% 12.68%+1.21 +12.7 16
2015-10-18 @ Sileks L 1-337.5 1056 1198 12.68% 24.24% 63.07%-1.21 -12.7 5
2015-10-18 Shkendija D 1-155.9 1209 1511 14.23% 24.70% 61.07%-1.08 +5.3 13
2015-10-18 @ Mladost Carev Dvor D 1-155.9 1511 1209 61.07% 24.70% 14.23%+1.08 -5.2 25
2015-10-18 Turnovo W 5-239.9 1188 1141 54.27% 25.81% 19.93%+0.72 +23.3 9
2015-10-18 @ Renova L 2-539.9 1141 1188 19.93% 25.81% 54.27%-0.72 -23.3 9
2015-10-18 Vardar L 0-335.1 1272 1527 17.77% 25.47% 56.75%-0.84 -28.9 11
2015-10-18 @ Shkupi W 3-035.1 1527 1272 56.75% 25.47% 17.77%+0.84 +28.9 26
2015-10-25 Mladost Carev Dvor W 1-039.1 1212 1214 48.64% 26.34% 25.02%+0.46 +14.1 12
2015-10-25 @ Renova L 0-139.1 1214 1212 25.02% 26.34% 48.64%-0.46 -14.1 13
2015-10-25 Rabotnicki D 2-259.4 1118 1307 24.29% 26.28% 49.43%-0.50 +2.0 10
2015-10-25 @ Turnovo D 2-259.4 1307 1118 49.43% 26.28% 24.29%+0.50 -2.0 12
2015-10-25 Shkendija D 0-060.9 1556 1506 54.60% 25.77% 19.63%+0.73 -4.2 27
2015-10-25 @ Vardar D 0-060.9 1506 1556 19.63% 25.77% 54.60%-0.73 +4.2 26
2015-10-25 Shkupi L 0-138.3 1043 1243 23.10% 26.17% 50.73%-0.55 -13.2 5
2015-10-25 @ Metalurg Skopje W 1-038.3 1243 1043 50.73% 26.17% 23.10%+0.55 +13.2 14
2015-10-25 Sileks D 1-153.8 1267 1210 55.24% 25.68% 19.07%+0.77 -3.9 12
2015-10-25 @ Bregalnica Shtip D 1-153.8 1210 1267 19.07% 25.68% 55.24%-0.77 +3.9 17
2015-10-28 Bregalnica Shtip D 0-048.9 1256 1263 48.06% 26.38% 25.56%+0.44 -2.6 15
2015-10-28 @ Shkupi D 0-048.9 1263 1256 25.56% 26.38% 48.06%-0.44 +2.6 13
2015-10-28 Metalurg Skopje W 2-026.5 1510 1030 81.93% 15.57% 2.50%+2.95 +2.5 29
2015-10-28 @ Shkendija L 0-226.5 1030 1510 2.50% 15.57% 81.93%-2.95 -2.5 5
2015-10-28 Renova D 1-154.1 1305 1226 57.48% 25.36% 17.16%+0.88 -4.4 13
2015-10-28 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.1 1226 1305 17.16% 25.36% 57.48%-0.88 +4.4 13
2015-10-28 Turnovo D 1-153.7 1214 1120 58.95% 25.11% 15.93%+0.96 -4.8 18
2015-10-28 @ Sileks D 1-153.7 1120 1214 15.93% 25.11% 58.95%-0.96 +4.8 11
2015-10-28 Vardar L 0-136.6 1200 1552 11.21% 23.72% 65.07%-1.34 -6.9 13
2015-10-28 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 1-036.6 1552 1200 65.07% 23.72% 11.21%+1.34 +6.9 30
2015-11-01 Mladost Carev Dvor W 2-032.9 1300 1193 60.11% 24.90% 14.99%+1.03 +17.1 16
2015-11-01 @ Rabotnicki L 0-232.9 1193 1300 14.99% 24.90% 60.11%-1.03 -17.1 13
2015-11-01 Shkendija L 0-236.9 1266 1513 18.51% 25.60% 55.89%-0.80 -20.6 13
2015-11-01 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-036.9 1513 1266 55.89% 25.60% 18.51%+0.80 +20.6 32
2015-11-01 Shkupi D 0-048.5 1125 1253 31.60% 26.66% 41.74%-0.19 +1.1 12
2015-11-01 @ Turnovo D 0-048.5 1253 1125 41.74% 26.66% 31.60%+0.19 -1.1 16
2015-11-01 Sileks W 2-144.1 1230 1210 51.35% 26.12% 22.53%+0.58 +12.2 16
2015-11-01 @ Renova L 1-244.1 1210 1230 22.53% 26.12% 51.35%-0.58 -12.2 18
2015-11-01 Vardar L 0-131.5 1027 1559 4.75% 19.22% 76.03%-2.27 -2.8 5
2015-11-01 @ Metalurg Skopje W 1-031.5 1559 1027 76.03% 19.22% 4.75%+2.27 +2.8 33
2015-11-04 Rabotnicki L 0-335.9 1176 1317 29.93% 26.60% 43.46%-0.25 -44.3 13
2015-11-04 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-035.9 1317 1176 43.46% 26.60% 29.93%+0.25 +44.3 19
2015-11-08 Bregalnica Shtip W 3-137.8 1562 1245 74.46% 20.05% 5.50%+2.11 +5.3 36
2015-11-08 @ Vardar L 1-337.8 1245 1562 5.50% 20.05% 74.46%-2.11 -5.3 13
2015-11-08 Metalurg Skopje L 1-547.2 1132 1025 60.12% 24.90% 14.99%+1.03 -85.2 13
2015-11-08 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 5-147.2 1025 1132 14.99% 24.90% 60.12%-1.03 +85.2 8
2015-11-08 Rabotnicki D 0-049.1 1197 1362 27.09% 26.47% 46.44%-0.37 +2.2 19
2015-11-08 @ Sileks D 0-049.1 1362 1197 46.44% 26.47% 27.09%+0.37 -2.2 20
2015-11-08 Renova W 3-033.9 1252 1242 50.07% 26.23% 23.70%+0.53 +36.9 19
2015-11-08 @ Shkupi L 0-333.9 1242 1252 23.70% 26.23% 50.07%-0.53 -36.9 16
2015-11-08 Turnovo D 2-263.2 1533 1126 78.88% 17.56% 3.56%+2.58 -6.5 33
2015-11-08 @ Shkendija D 2-263.2 1126 1533 3.56% 17.56% 78.88%-2.58 +6.5 13
2015-11-22 Metalurg Skopje L 0-246.6 1240 1110 62.07% 24.48% 13.44%+1.14 -55.5 13
2015-11-22 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 2-046.6 1110 1240 13.44% 24.48% 62.07%-1.14 +55.5 11
2015-11-22 Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-029.4 1200 1046 63.95% 24.02% 12.02%+1.26 +20.2 22
2015-11-22 @ Sileks L 0-329.4 1046 1200 12.02% 24.02% 63.95%-1.26 -20.2 13
2015-11-22 Shkupi D 1-154.8 1359 1289 56.66% 25.49% 17.85%+0.84 -4.2 21
2015-11-22 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.8 1289 1359 17.85% 25.49% 56.66%-0.84 +4.2 20
2015-11-22 Vardar W 2-158.9 1132 1567 7.55% 21.78% 70.67%-1.77 +31.2 16
2015-11-22 @ Turnovo L 1-258.9 1567 1132 70.67% 21.78% 7.55%+1.77 -31.2 36
2015-11-23 Shkendija D 0-051.4 1206 1527 12.99% 24.34% 62.66%-1.18 +6.3 17
2015-11-23 @ Renova D 0-051.4 1527 1206 62.66% 24.34% 12.99%+1.18 -6.3 34
2015-11-29 Bregalnica Shtip L 1-440.0 1026 1184 27.88% 26.51% 45.61%-0.34 -35.4 13
2015-11-29 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 4-140.0 1184 1026 45.61% 26.51% 27.88%+0.34 +35.4 16
2015-11-29 Rabotnicki D 1-159.6 1521 1355 64.90% 23.77% 11.33%+1.33 -6.1 35
2015-11-29 @ Shkendija D 1-159.6 1355 1521 11.33% 23.77% 64.90%-1.33 +6.1 22
2015-11-29 Renova W 2-030.6 1536 1212 74.84% 19.85% 5.31%+2.15 +5.9 39
2015-11-29 @ Vardar L 0-230.6 1212 1536 5.31% 19.85% 74.84%-2.15 -5.9 17
2015-11-29 Sileks D 0-049.2 1293 1220 56.95% 25.44% 17.60%+0.85 -4.8 21
2015-11-29 @ Shkupi D 0-049.2 1220 1293 17.60% 25.44% 56.95%-0.85 +4.8 23
2015-11-29 Turnovo D 2-259.2 1165 1163 49.13% 26.30% 24.57%+0.48 -1.9 12
2015-11-29 @ Metalurg Skopje D 2-259.2 1163 1165 24.57% 26.30% 49.13%-0.48 +1.9 17
2015-12-05 Vardar D 1-159.7 1361 1542 25.20% 26.35% 48.46%-0.46 +2.4 23
2015-12-05 @ Rabotnicki D 1-159.7 1542 1361 48.46% 26.35% 25.20%+0.46 -2.4 40
2015-12-06 Bregalnica Shtip W 2-038.1 1165 1219 41.98% 26.65% 31.36%+0.20 +31.6 20
2015-12-06 @ Turnovo L 0-238.1 1219 1165 31.36% 26.65% 41.98%-0.20 -31.6 16
2015-12-06 Mladost Carev Dvor W 5-026.3 1288 991 73.41% 20.56% 6.03%+2.01 +15.9 24
2015-12-06 @ Shkupi L 0-526.3 991 1288 6.03% 20.56% 73.41%-2.01 -15.9 13
2015-12-06 Shkendija W 3-154.3 1225 1514 15.11% 24.92% 59.97%-1.02 +46.6 26
2015-12-06 @ Sileks L 1-354.3 1514 1225 59.97% 24.92% 15.11%+1.02 -46.6 35
2015-12-07 Metalurg Skopje W 2-034.5 1206 1163 53.78% 25.87% 20.36%+0.70 +22.4 20
2015-12-07 @ Renova L 0-234.5 1163 1206 20.36% 25.87% 53.78%-0.70 -22.4 12
2015-12-10 Rabotnicki D 0-049.0 1141 1364 20.76% 25.92% 53.33%-0.67 +3.9 13
2015-12-10 @ Metalurg Skopje D 0-049.0 1364 1141 53.33% 25.92% 20.76%+0.67 -3.9 24
2015-12-10 Renova W 3-251.4 1188 1228 43.80% 26.59% 29.61%+0.27 +14.4 19
2015-12-10 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 2-351.4 1228 1188 29.61% 26.59% 43.80%-0.27 -14.3 20
2015-12-10 Shkupi W 4-137.2 1468 1304 64.76% 23.80% 11.43%+1.32 +16.2 38
2015-12-10 @ Shkendija L 1-437.2 1304 1468 11.43% 23.80% 64.76%-1.32 -16.2 24
2015-12-10 Sileks W 4-030.3 1539 1271 71.74% 21.33% 6.93%+1.86 +15.0 43
2015-12-10 @ Vardar L 0-430.3 1271 1539 6.93% 21.33% 71.74%-1.86 -15.0 26
2015-12-10 Turnovo W 2-153.0 975 1197 20.83% 25.93% 53.24%-0.67 +24.1 16
2015-12-10 @ Mladost Carev Dvor L 1-253.0 1197 975 53.24% 25.93% 20.83%+0.67 -24.1 20
2016-02-20 Mladost Carev Dvor W 2-136.4 1360 999 76.69% 18.85% 4.46%+2.34 +2.4 27
2016-02-20 @ Rabotnicki L 1-236.4 999 1360 4.46% 18.85% 76.69%-2.34 -2.4 16
2016-02-21 Bregalnica Shtip D 2-259.6 1256 1202 54.99% 25.72% 19.30%+0.75 -2.9 27
2016-02-21 @ Sileks D 2-259.6 1202 1256 19.30% 25.72% 54.99%-0.75 +2.9 20
2016-02-21 Metalurg Skopje W 1-034.8 1288 1145 63.17% 24.22% 12.61%+1.21 +7.7 27
2016-02-21 @ Shkupi L 0-134.8 1145 1288 12.61% 24.22% 63.17%-1.21 -7.7 13
2016-02-21 Renova W 4-133.9 1554 1214 75.68% 19.41% 4.91%+2.23 +6.6 46
2016-02-21 @ Vardar L 1-433.9 1214 1554 4.91% 19.41% 75.68%-2.23 -6.7 20
2016-02-21 Turnovo W 2-029.7 1484 1173 74.16% 20.20% 5.65%+2.08 +6.3 41
2016-02-21 @ Shkendija L 0-229.7 1173 1484 5.65% 20.20% 74.16%-2.08 -6.3 20
2016-02-28 Rabotnicki L 1-243.6 1137 1362 20.53% 25.89% 53.58%-0.69 -11.3 13
2016-02-28 @ Metalurg Skopje W 2-143.6 1362 1137 53.58% 25.89% 20.53%+0.69 +11.3 30
2016-02-28 Renova W 1-036.4 1296 1207 58.41% 25.21% 16.38%+0.93 +9.8 30
2016-02-28 @ Shkupi L 0-136.4 1207 1296 16.38% 25.21% 58.41%-0.93 -9.8 20
2016-02-28 Shkendija L 0-332.5 1205 1490 15.43% 25.00% 59.57%-1.00 -25.5 20
2016-02-28 @ Bregalnica Shtip W 3-032.5 1490 1205 59.57% 25.00% 15.43%+1.00 +25.5 44
2016-02-28 Sileks L 0-136.5 997 1253 17.70% 25.46% 56.84%-0.85 -10.5 16
2016-02-28 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 1-036.5 1253 997 56.84% 25.46% 17.70%+0.85 +10.5 30
2016-02-28 Vardar L 0-135.3 1167 1561 9.15% 22.76% 68.09%-1.56 -5.6 20
2016-02-28 @ Turnovo W 1-035.3 1561 1167 68.09% 22.76% 9.15%+1.56 +5.6 49
2016-03-06 Metalurg Skopje W 3-029.9 1264 1126 62.74% 24.33% 12.93%+1.19 +21.7 33
2016-03-06 @ Sileks L 0-329.9 1126 1264 12.93% 24.33% 62.74%-1.19 -21.7 13
2016-03-06 Shkupi D 1-155.1 1374 1306 56.40% 25.52% 18.07%+0.83 -4.2 31
2016-03-06 @ Rabotnicki D 1-155.1 1306 1374 18.07% 25.52% 56.40%-0.83 +4.2 31
2016-03-06 Turnovo D 1-153.5 1197 1161 53.12% 25.94% 20.94%+0.66 -3.4 21
2016-03-06 @ Renova D 1-153.5 1161 1197 20.94% 25.94% 53.12%-0.66 +3.4 21
2016-03-08 Bregalnica Shtip W 4-027.1 1567 1180 77.95% 18.12% 3.93%+2.47 +8.0 52
2016-03-08 @ Vardar L 0-427.1 1180 1567 3.93% 18.12% 77.95%-2.47 -8.0 20
2016-03-09 Mladost Carev Dvor W 2-025.8 1516 986 83.79% 14.25% 1.96%+3.21 +1.9 47
2016-03-09 @ Shkendija L 0-225.8 986 1516 1.96% 14.25% 83.79%-3.21 -1.9 16
2016-03-12 Renova D 0-050.0 1369 1194 65.64% 23.55% 10.81%+1.38 -7.0 32
2016-03-12 @ Rabotnicki D 0-050.0 1194 1369 10.81% 23.55% 65.64%-1.38 +7.0 22
2016-03-13 Shkendija L 0-428.2 1104 1518 8.34% 22.30% 69.35%-1.66 -18.3 13
2016-03-13 @ Metalurg Skopje W 4-028.2 1518 1104 69.35% 22.30% 8.34%+1.66 +18.3 50
2016-03-13 Sileks W 1-038.8 1310 1285 51.77% 26.08% 22.15%+0.60 +12.7 34
2016-03-13 @ Shkupi L 0-138.8 1285 1310 22.15% 26.08% 51.77%-0.60 -12.7 33
2016-03-13 Turnovo W 2-035.7 1172 1164 49.77% 26.25% 23.98%+0.51 +25.6 23
2016-03-13 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 0-235.7 1164 1172 23.98% 26.25% 49.77%-0.51 -25.6 21
2016-03-13 Vardar L 0-325.6 984 1575 3.58% 17.60% 78.82%-2.57 -5.5 16
2016-03-13 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-025.6 1575 984 78.82% 17.60% 3.58%+2.57 +5.5 55
2016-03-19 Bregalnica Shtip W 3-033.9 1201 1197 49.39% 26.28% 24.33%+0.50 +37.6 25
2016-03-19 @ Renova L 0-333.9 1197 1201 24.33% 26.28% 49.39%-0.50 -37.6 23
2016-03-19 Metalurg Skopje W 2-136.0 1580 1086 82.48% 15.19% 2.33%+3.02 +1.2 58
2016-03-19 @ Vardar L 1-236.0 1086 1580 2.33% 15.19% 82.48%-3.02 -1.2 13
2016-03-19 Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-137.1 1139 979 64.50% 23.88% 11.63%+1.30 +11.7 24
2016-03-19 @ Turnovo L 1-337.1 979 1139 11.63% 23.88% 64.50%-1.30 -11.6 16
2016-03-19 Rabotnicki D 0-049.5 1273 1362 37.01% 26.72% 36.27%+0.01 -0.1 34
2016-03-19 @ Sileks D 0-049.5 1362 1273 36.27% 26.72% 37.01%-0.01 +0.1 33
2016-03-19 Shkupi W 3-141.0 1536 1323 68.32% 22.68% 9.00%+1.58 +9.0 53
2016-03-19 @ Shkendija L 1-341.0 1323 1536 9.00% 22.68% 68.32%-1.58 -9.0 34
2016-04-02 Shkendija L 0-145.5 1362 1545 24.94% 26.33% 48.73%-0.47 -14.0 33
2016-04-02 @ Rabotnicki W 1-045.5 1545 1362 48.73% 26.33% 24.94%+0.47 +14.0 56
2016-04-03 Bregalnica Shtip L 0-533.3 967 1159 23.87% 26.24% 49.89%-0.52 -59.7 16
2016-04-03 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 5-033.3 1159 967 49.89% 26.24% 23.87%+0.52 +59.7 26
2016-04-03 Renova W 1-038.1 1273 1239 52.84% 25.97% 21.19%+0.65 +12.3 37
2016-04-03 @ Sileks L 0-138.1 1239 1273 21.19% 25.97% 52.84%-0.65 -12.3 25
2016-04-03 Turnovo L 0-143.6 1085 1150 40.38% 26.69% 32.93%+0.14 -20.3 13
2016-04-03 @ Metalurg Skopje W 1-043.6 1150 1085 32.93% 26.69% 40.38%-0.14 +20.3 27
2016-04-03 Vardar L 0-142.3 1314 1581 16.78% 25.29% 57.93%-0.91 -10.0 34
2016-04-03 @ Shkupi W 1-042.3 1581 1314 57.93% 25.29% 16.78%+0.91 +10.0 61
2016-04-06 Metalurg Skopje W 4-134.5 1219 1064 64.08% 23.99% 11.93%+1.27 +16.9 29
2016-04-06 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 1-434.5 1064 1219 11.93% 23.99% 64.08%-1.27 -16.9 13
2016-04-06 Mladost Carev Dvor W 3-026.2 1226 907 74.58% 19.99% 5.44%+2.12 +8.8 28
2016-04-06 @ Renova L 0-326.2 907 1226 5.44% 19.99% 74.58%-2.12 -8.8 16
2016-04-06 Rabotnicki W 1-040.2 1591 1348 70.22% 21.96% 7.81%+1.73 +4.8 64
2016-04-06 @ Vardar L 0-140.2 1348 1591 7.81% 21.96% 70.22%-1.73 -4.8 33
2016-04-06 Shkupi W 1-044.5 1171 1304 31.04% 26.64% 42.32%-0.21 +21.0 30
2016-04-06 @ Turnovo L 0-144.5 1304 1171 42.32% 26.64% 31.04%+0.21 -21.0 34
2016-04-06 Sileks W 3-139.5 1559 1285 72.10% 21.17% 6.73%+1.89 +6.7 59
2016-04-06 @ Shkendija L 1-339.5 1285 1559 6.73% 21.17% 72.10%-1.89 -6.7 37
2016-04-10 Bregalnica Shtip D 2-259.8 1282 1236 54.19% 25.82% 20.00%+0.71 -2.7 35
2016-04-10 @ Shkupi D 2-259.8 1236 1282 20.00% 25.82% 54.19%-0.71 +2.7 30
2016-04-10 Mladost Carev Dvor W 2-031.4 1048 898 63.64% 24.10% 12.26%+1.24 +14.2 16
2016-04-10 @ Metalurg Skopje L 0-231.4 898 1048 12.26% 24.10% 63.64%-1.24 -14.2 16
2016-04-10 Renova W 3-137.5 1566 1235 75.18% 19.67% 5.15%+2.18 +5.0 62
2016-04-10 @ Shkendija L 1-337.5 1235 1566 5.15% 19.67% 75.18%-2.18 -5.0 28
2016-04-10 Turnovo W 2-031.9 1344 1192 63.86% 24.05% 12.09%+1.26 +14.0 36
2016-04-10 @ Rabotnicki L 0-231.9 1192 1344 12.09% 24.05% 63.86%-1.26 -14.0 30
2016-04-10 Vardar W 3-266.0 1278 1596 13.20% 24.41% 62.39%-1.16 +26.5 40
2016-04-10 @ Sileks L 2-366.0 1596 1278 62.39% 24.41% 13.20%+1.16 -26.5 64
2016-04-17 Metalurg Skopje W 4-134.2 1230 1062 65.14% 23.70% 11.16%+1.34 +15.9 31
2016-04-17 @ Renova L 1-434.2 1062 1230 11.16% 23.70% 65.14%-1.34 -15.8 16
2016-04-17 Rabotnicki W 2-150.3 1239 1358 32.92% 26.69% 40.40%-0.14 +19.1 33
2016-04-17 @ Bregalnica Shtip L 1-250.3 1358 1239 40.40% 26.69% 32.92%+0.14 -19.1 36
2016-04-17 Shkendija D 1-168.0 1570 1571 48.79% 26.32% 24.88%+0.47 -2.5 65
2016-04-17 @ Vardar D 1-168.0 1571 1570 24.88% 26.32% 48.79%-0.47 +2.5 63
2016-04-17 Shkupi L 0-133.1 884 1280 9.11% 22.74% 68.15%-1.56 -5.6 16
2016-04-17 @ Mladost Carev Dvor W 1-033.1 1280 884 68.15% 22.74% 9.11%+1.56 +5.6 38
2016-04-17 Sileks W 2-150.1 1178 1305 31.81% 26.66% 41.53%-0.18 +19.5 33
2016-04-17 @ Turnovo L 1-250.1 1305 1178 41.53% 26.66% 31.81%+0.18 -19.5 40

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2015-11-22 7.55% @ Turnovo 1132 2 Vardar 1567 1
2 2016-04-10 13.20% @ Sileks 1278 3 Vardar 1596 2
3 2015-11-22 13.44% Metalurg Skopje 1110 2 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1240 0
4 2015-11-08 14.99% Metalurg Skopje 1025 5 @ Mladost Carev Dvor 1132 1
5 2015-12-06 15.11% @ Sileks 1225 3 Shkendija 1514 1
6 2015-12-10 20.83% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 975 2 Turnovo 1197 1
7 2015-08-23 21.42% Shkupi 1247 2 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1279 1
8 2015-09-27 22.10% Shkupi 1251 2 @ Mladost Carev Dvor 1275 0
9 2015-09-17 22.26% @ Renova 1166 3 Rabotnicki 1373 1
10 2015-09-19 24.53% Mladost Carev Dvor 1254 3 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1256 2
11 2015-08-16 25.33% Vardar 1397 3 @ Shkendija 1392 1
12 2015-09-27 26.42% @ Metalurg Skopje 1042 1 Renova 1212 0
13 2015-08-09 27.39% Sileks 1190 3 @ Metalurg Skopje 1167 1
14 2015-08-09 29.75% @ Turnovo 1129 4 Renova 1272 0
15 2016-04-06 31.04% @ Turnovo 1171 1 Shkupi 1304 0
16 2016-04-17 31.81% @ Turnovo 1178 2 Sileks 1305 1
17 2016-04-17 32.92% @ Bregalnica Shtip 1239 2 Rabotnicki 1358 1
18 2016-04-03 32.93% Turnovo 1150 1 @ Metalurg Skopje 1085 0
19 2015-10-04 34.57% @ Turnovo 1122 1 Mladost Carev Dvor 1228 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-11-08 85.21 Metalurg Skopje 5 1025 14.99% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 1 1132 60.12% 24.90%
2 2015-08-09 77.08 @ Turnovo 4 1129 29.75% Renova 0 1272 43.65% 26.60%
3 2016-04-03 59.70 Bregalnica Shtip 5 1159 49.89% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 0 967 23.87% 26.24%
4 2015-11-22 55.53 Metalurg Skopje 2 1110 13.44% @ Bregalnica Shtip 0 1240 62.07% 24.48%
5 2015-09-27 47.03 Shkupi 2 1251 22.10% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1275 51.83% 26.07%
6 2015-12-06 46.56 @ Sileks 3 1225 15.11% Shkendija 1 1514 59.97% 24.92%
7 2015-09-13 46.48 Bregalnica Shtip 3 1210 41.46% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1083 31.87% 26.66%
8 2015-11-04 44.31 Rabotnicki 3 1317 43.46% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1176 29.93% 26.60%
9 2015-09-17 40.60 @ Renova 3 1166 22.26% Rabotnicki 1 1373 51.65% 26.09%
10 2015-08-16 38.29 Vardar 3 1397 25.33% @ Shkendija 1 1392 48.31% 26.36%
11 2016-03-19 37.64 @ Renova 3 1201 49.39% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1197 24.33% 26.28%
12 2015-11-08 36.86 @ Shkupi 3 1252 50.07% Renova 0 1242 23.70% 26.23%
13 2015-08-09 36.82 Sileks 3 1190 27.39% @ Metalurg Skopje 1 1167 46.12% 26.49%
14 2015-11-29 35.36 Bregalnica Shtip 4 1184 45.61% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 1 1026 27.88% 26.51%
15 2015-08-29 34.21 Shkendija 3 1411 52.33% @ Turnovo 0 1198 21.64% 26.02%
16 2015-08-23 33.78 Shkendija 3 1353 52.70% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1136 21.32% 25.98%
17 2015-08-23 32.78 @ Vardar 6 1435 66.56% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1247 10.17% 23.27%
18 2015-12-06 31.61 @ Turnovo 2 1165 41.98% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1219 31.36% 26.65%
19 2015-11-22 31.16 @ Turnovo 2 1132 7.55% Vardar 1 1567 70.67% 21.78%
20 2015-10-18 28.93 Vardar 3 1527 56.75% @ Shkupi 0 1272 17.77% 25.47%
21 2015-09-27 27.20 @ Bregalnica Shtip 3 1235 58.18% Turnovo 0 1149 16.58% 25.25%
22 2015-10-04 26.49 Vardar 3 1501 58.76% @ Sileks 0 1224 16.09% 25.15%
23 2016-04-10 26.46 @ Sileks 3 1278 13.20% Vardar 2 1596 62.39% 24.41%
24 2015-10-04 25.99 Shkendija 2 1485 49.31% @ Shkupi 0 1298 24.40% 26.29%
25 2016-03-13 25.62 @ Bregalnica Shtip 2 1172 49.77% Turnovo 0 1164 23.98% 26.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-04-17 68.0 @ Vardar 1 1570 48.79% Shkendija 1 1571 24.88% 26.32%
2 2016-04-10 66.0 @ Sileks 3 1278 13.20% Vardar 2 1596 62.39% 24.41%
3 2015-11-08 63.2 @ Shkendija 2 1533 78.88% Turnovo 2 1126 3.56% 17.56%
4 2015-08-09 61.1 @ Vardar 2 1401 63.86% Shkupi 2 1249 12.09% 24.05%
5 2015-10-25 60.9 @ Vardar 0 1556 54.60% Shkendija 0 1506 19.63% 25.77%
6 2016-04-10 59.8 @ Shkupi 2 1282 54.19% Bregalnica Shtip 2 1236 20.00% 25.82%
7 2015-12-05 59.7 @ Rabotnicki 1 1361 25.20% Vardar 1 1542 48.46% 26.35%
8 2015-11-29 59.6 @ Shkendija 1 1521 64.90% Rabotnicki 1 1355 11.33% 23.77%
9 2016-02-21 59.6 @ Sileks 2 1256 54.99% Bregalnica Shtip 2 1202 19.30% 25.72%
10 2015-10-25 59.4 @ Turnovo 2 1118 24.29% Rabotnicki 2 1307 49.43% 26.28%
11 2015-11-29 59.2 @ Metalurg Skopje 2 1165 49.13% Turnovo 2 1163 24.57% 26.30%
12 2015-11-22 58.9 @ Turnovo 2 1132 7.55% Vardar 1 1567 70.67% 21.78%
13 2015-09-19 57.5 Mladost Carev Dvor 3 1254 24.53% @ Bregalnica Shtip 2 1256 49.17% 26.30%
14 2015-10-18 55.9 @ Mladost Carev Dvor 1 1209 14.23% Shkendija 1 1511 61.07% 24.70%
15 2016-03-06 55.1 @ Rabotnicki 1 1374 56.40% Shkupi 1 1306 18.07% 25.52%
16 2015-11-22 54.8 @ Rabotnicki 1 1359 56.66% Shkupi 1 1289 17.85% 25.49%
17 2015-09-13 54.3 @ Shkupi 1 1267 34.54% Rabotnicki 1 1374 38.75% 26.71%
18 2015-12-06 54.3 @ Sileks 3 1225 15.11% Shkendija 1 1514 59.97% 24.92%
19 2015-10-28 54.1 @ Rabotnicki 1 1305 57.48% Renova 1 1226 17.16% 25.36%
20 2015-08-26 53.8 @ Shkupi 1 1271 57.42% Turnovo 1 1193 17.21% 25.37%
21 2015-10-25 53.8 @ Bregalnica Shtip 1 1267 55.24% Sileks 1 1210 19.07% 25.68%
22 2015-09-20 53.7 @ Turnovo 1 1154 61.01% Metalurg Skopje 1 1037 14.27% 24.71%
23 2015-10-28 53.7 @ Sileks 1 1214 58.95% Turnovo 1 1120 15.93% 25.11%
24 2016-03-06 53.5 @ Renova 1 1197 53.12% Turnovo 1 1161 20.94% 25.94%
25 2015-08-23 53.4 Shkupi 2 1247 21.42% @ Bregalnica Shtip 1 1279 52.59% 26.00%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-03-13 25.6 Vardar 3 1575 78.82% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 0 984 3.58% 17.60%
2 2016-03-09 25.8 @ Shkendija 2 1516 83.79% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 986 1.96% 14.25%
3 2016-04-06 26.2 @ Renova 3 1226 74.58% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 907 5.44% 19.99%
4 2015-12-06 26.3 @ Shkupi 5 1288 73.41% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 991 6.03% 20.56%
5 2015-10-28 26.5 @ Shkendija 2 1510 81.93% Metalurg Skopje 0 1030 2.50% 15.57%
6 2016-03-08 27.1 @ Vardar 4 1567 77.95% Bregalnica Shtip 0 1180 3.93% 18.12%
7 2016-03-13 28.2 Shkendija 4 1518 69.35% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1104 8.34% 22.30%
8 2015-11-22 29.4 @ Sileks 3 1200 63.95% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1046 12.02% 24.02%
9 2015-10-04 29.7 @ Rabotnicki 2 1301 69.81% Metalurg Skopje 0 1065 8.06% 22.13%
10 2016-02-21 29.7 @ Shkendija 2 1484 74.16% Turnovo 0 1173 5.65% 20.20%
11 2016-03-06 29.9 @ Sileks 3 1264 62.74% Metalurg Skopje 0 1126 12.93% 24.33%
12 2015-12-10 30.3 @ Vardar 4 1539 71.74% Sileks 0 1271 6.93% 21.33%
13 2015-08-23 30.4 @ Vardar 6 1435 66.56% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1247 10.17% 23.27%
14 2015-09-13 30.6 @ Vardar 5 1491 75.05% Turnovo 1 1163 5.21% 19.74%
15 2015-11-29 30.6 @ Vardar 2 1536 74.84% Renova 0 1212 5.31% 19.85%
16 2015-08-26 31.2 @ Vardar 1 1468 76.91% Metalurg Skopje 0 1102 4.36% 18.73%
17 2015-09-27 31.3 @ Bregalnica Shtip 3 1235 58.18% Turnovo 0 1149 16.58% 25.25%
18 2016-04-10 31.4 @ Metalurg Skopje 2 1048 63.64% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 898 12.26% 24.10%
19 2015-11-01 31.5 Vardar 1 1559 76.03% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1027 4.75% 19.22%
20 2016-04-10 31.9 @ Rabotnicki 2 1344 63.86% Turnovo 0 1192 12.09% 24.05%
21 2016-02-28 32.5 Shkendija 3 1490 59.57% @ Bregalnica Shtip 0 1205 15.43% 25.00%
22 2015-11-01 32.9 @ Rabotnicki 2 1300 60.11% Mladost Carev Dvor 0 1193 14.99% 24.90%
23 2015-08-23 33.1 Shkendija 3 1353 52.70% @ Metalurg Skopje 0 1136 21.32% 25.98%
24 2015-10-04 33.1 Vardar 3 1501 58.76% @ Sileks 0 1224 16.09% 25.15%
25 2016-04-17 33.1 Shkupi 1 1280 68.15% @ Mladost Carev Dvor 0 884 9.11% 22.74%