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1902-03 Irish League Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Lisburn Distillery

20 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lisburn Distillery

3.22 points above expected

20 points · 16.78 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cliftonville

2.48 points below expected

11 points · 13.48 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lisburn Distillery 14 9 2 3 20 34 20 +14 16.78 +3.22
2 Linfield 14 8 3 3 19 38 16 +22 18.64 +0.36
3 Glentoran 14 7 3 4 17 30 18 +12 16.65 +0.35
4 Belfast Celtic 14 7 2 5 16 35 23 +12 13.09 +2.91
5 Derry Celtic 14 4 4 6 12 27 31 -4 12.34 -0.34
6 Cliftonville* 14 5 3 6 11 17 21 -4 13.48 -2.48
7 Bohemian 14 3 3 8 9 22 36 -14 11.46 -2.46
8 Ulster 14 3 0 11 6 13 51 -38 7.56 -1.56

* Point deductions: Cliftonville (-2 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lisburn Distillery 20 16.78 +3.22
2 Belfast Celtic 16 13.09 +2.91
3 Linfield 19 18.64 +0.36
4 Glentoran 17 16.65 +0.35
5 Derry Celtic 12 12.34 -0.34

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cliftonville 11 13.48 -2.48
2 Bohemian 9 11.46 -2.46
3 Ulster 6 7.56 -1.56
4 Derry Celtic 12 12.34 -0.34
5 Glentoran 17 16.65 +0.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ulster 2 Aug 30 – Sep 6 1 in 37
2 Bohemian 3 Oct 4 – Nov 1 1 in 29
3 Lisburn Distillery 4 Dec 6 – Feb 23 1 in 13
4 Cliftonville 2 Sep 27 – Oct 4 1 in 11
5 Belfast Celtic 3 Sep 27 – Oct 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 2 Sep 6 – Sep 13 1 in 43
2 Linfield 2 Aug 30 – Sep 6 1 in 19
3 Lisburn Distillery 2 Sep 27 – Oct 4 1 in 15
4 Ulster 7 Sep 13 – Dec 6 1 in 14
5 Glentoran 2 Oct 4 – Oct 18 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 7 Oct 18 – Feb 23 1 in 19
2 Linfield 7 Sep 13 – Nov 22 1 in 10
3 Cliftonville 3 Sep 20 – Oct 4 1 in 8
4 Ulster 2 Aug 30 – Sep 6 1 in 7
5 Bohemian 3 Oct 4 – Nov 1 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 4 Aug 30 – Sep 20 1 in 19
2 Glentoran 4 Oct 4 – Dec 6 1 in 12
3 Linfield 2 Aug 30 – Sep 6 1 in 6
4 Bohemian 6 Dec 6 – Mar 17 1 in 5
5 Lisburn Distillery 2 Sep 27 – Oct 4 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lisburn Distillery 1601 20 +21 8 6.4 +1.6
Linfield 1686 19 +24 7 6.9 +0.1
Glentoran 1579 17 +5 7 5.9 +1.1
Belfast Celtic 1512 16 +49 7 5.0 +2.0
Cliftonville 1525 13 -10 5 5.4 -0.4
Derry Celtic 1462 12 +19 5 4.6 +0.4
Bohemian 1405 9 -37 1 3.1 -2.1
Ulster 1231 6 -53 2 3.1 -1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE LIN LD ULS
Belfast Celtic —
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.02
1-0-1
1.57
0-0-2
2.07
2-0-0
4.04
Bohemian
0-0-2
2.68
 —
1-1-0
2.09
0-1-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.03
0-1-1
1.40
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
3.78
Cliftonville
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
3.54
 —
1-1-0
3.44
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.27
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
4.30
Derry Celtic
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.85
1-0-1
3.78
Glentoran
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.16
1-0-1
3.69
 —
0-1-1
2.44
0-2-0
2.83
2-0-0
4.45
Linfield
1-0-1
4.06
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.97
1-1-0
3.19
 —
0-0-2
3.29
2-0-0
4.75
Lisburn Distillery
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
3.83
1-0-1
3.17
1-0-1
3.78
0-2-0
2.80
2-0-0
2.34
 —
2-0-0
4.50
Ulster
0-0-2
1.59
1-0-1
1.85
1-0-1
1.35
1-0-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
0.91
0-0-2
1.16
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.84 +5.1
Allowed 0.75 -3.7
Differential 0.91 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%2.68%1.79%2.68%4.46%15.18%
13.57%8.93%8.93%6.25%2.68%3.57%33.93%
22.68%8.93%5.36%2.68%1.79%—21.43%
31.79%6.25%2.68%3.57%——14.29%
42.68%2.68%1.79%———7.14%
5+4.46%3.57%————8.04%
Total15.18%33.93%21.43%14.29%7.14%8.04%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.93 +0.00
SD 1.56 1.56 2.69
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%28.57%——7.14%42.86%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
47.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total21.43%28.57%35.71%7.14%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.64 +0.86
SD 1.79 1.55 2.85
CV 0.71 0.94 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———7.14%7.14%7.14%21.43%
1—7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%—35.71%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total—21.43%28.57%28.57%14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 2.57 -1.00
SD 1.40 1.22 2.32
CV 0.89 0.48 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
114.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%——42.86%
27.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%21.43%14.29%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.50 -0.29
SD 0.89 1.22 1.68
CV 0.74 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%7.14%—7.14%28.57%
1—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
3—7.14%—14.29%——21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total7.14%28.57%21.43%35.71%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 2.21 -0.29
SD 1.77 1.48 2.87
CV 0.92 0.67 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%————14.29%
1—14.29%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
3—14.29%————14.29%
47.14%7.14%————14.29%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total14.29%64.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.29 +0.86
SD 1.70 1.07 2.41
CV 0.79 0.83 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
17.14%14.29%7.14%———28.57%
27.14%—7.14%—14.29%—28.57%
314.29%—————14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+7.14%14.29%————21.43%
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%—14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 1.14 +1.57
SD 1.68 1.41 2.47
CV 0.62 1.23 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—7.14%7.14%14.29%——28.57%
2—28.57%7.14%———35.71%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+7.14%7.14%————14.29%
Total7.14%57.14%21.43%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.43 1.43 +1.00
SD 1.40 0.85 2.00
CV 0.58 0.60 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%——7.14%21.43%35.71%
17.14%—7.14%7.14%7.14%21.43%50.00%
2———————
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%7.14%21.43%7.14%14.29%42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 3.64 -2.71
SD 1.00 2.02 2.61
CV 1.07 0.56 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1686 19 18.64 +0.36 60.0% 9 14 17 18 21 23 25
Lisburn Distillery 1601 20 16.78 +3.22 87.0% 10 13 15 16 18 22 26
Glentoran 1579 17 16.65 +0.35 57.0% 9 11 14 17 19 22 24
Cliftonville 1525 11 13.48 -2.48 23.0% 6 8 12 14 16 18 20
Belfast Celtic 1512 16 13.09 +2.91 92.0% 6 8 12 13 15 17 18
Derry Celtic 1462 12 12.34 -0.34 53.0% 5 7 11 12 14 17 19
Bohemian 1405 9 11.46 -2.46 21.0% 3 7 10 11 14 16 18
Ulster 1231 6 7.56 -1.56 45.0% 2 4 5 7 9 13 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.00%
Strong Edge
53.57%17.86%28.57%
Elo Value
Home Edge
110 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
088.74300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.75 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.81+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
21%
Lisburn Distillery, 2nd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.07/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.5 * Lucky: 3.5 to 4.66 * Wild Swing: 4.66 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.95 * Close: 0.95 to 1.43 * Off: 1.43 to 1.91 * Way Off: 1.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.06 points
As Expected
02.917
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Pinpoint
01.192.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.00%
Belfast Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
21.00%
Bohemian
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Even
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 138.78
1.48
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
69%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
48%
Some Drama
0%42%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Very Frequent
0%36%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.52
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Shaky Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.21 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.21 to 0.31 * Above Noise: 0.31 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.15
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.90
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.182
Well Within Noise
00.2070.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Lisburn Distillery21.00%21.00%30.00%16.00%7.00%5.00%——
Linfield55.00%25.00%16.00%—1.00%2.00%1.00%—
Glentoran20.00%30.00%16.00%15.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%—
Belfast Celtic2.00%7.00%17.00%20.00%25.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%
Derry Celtic—5.00%4.00%20.00%17.00%25.00%22.00%7.00%
Cliftonville2.00%10.00%10.00%17.00%25.00%17.00%15.00%4.00%
Bohemian—1.00%7.00%11.00%11.00%26.00%34.00%10.00%
Ulster—1.00%—1.00%6.00%5.00%13.00%74.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Ulster 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1902-08-30 Linfield W 4-264.9 1430 1646 29.50% 18.64% 51.86%-1.15 +13.7 2
1902-08-30 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-464.9 1646 1430 51.86% 18.64% 29.50%+1.15 -13.6 0
1902-08-30 Cliftonville D 2-268.2 1459 1556 45.55% 18.94% 35.51%-0.08 -0.3 1
1902-08-30 @ Derry Celtic D 2-268.2 1556 1459 35.51% 18.94% 45.55%+0.08 +0.3 1
1902-08-30 Glentoran D 1-166.8 1571 1568 58.01% 18.78% 23.21%+0.84 -1.5 1
1902-08-30 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-166.8 1568 1571 23.21% 18.78% 58.01%-0.84 +1.5 1
1902-08-30 Bohemian W 3-254.6 1308 1463 37.40% 18.86% 43.75%-0.61 +7.2 2
1902-08-30 @ Ulster L 2-354.6 1463 1308 43.75% 18.86% 37.40%+0.61 -7.2 0
1902-09-06 Derry Celtic D 3-370.0 1456 1458 57.38% 18.80% 23.82%+0.79 -0.9 1
1902-09-06 @ Bohemian D 3-370.0 1458 1456 23.82% 18.80% 57.38%-0.79 +0.9 2
1902-09-06 Ulster L 0-155.5 1556 1315 75.76% 17.02% 7.22%+3.00 -13.6 1
1902-09-06 @ Cliftonville W 1-055.5 1315 1556 7.22% 17.02% 75.76%-3.00 +13.6 4
1902-09-06 Belfast Celtic W 2-146.5 1569 1443 68.93% 18.10% 12.97%+1.95 +2.6 3
1902-09-06 @ Glentoran L 1-246.5 1443 1569 12.97% 18.10% 68.93%-1.95 -2.6 2
1902-09-06 Lisburn Distillery L 2-472.1 1632 1570 63.83% 18.52% 17.65%+1.37 -16.7 0
1902-09-06 @ Linfield W 4-272.1 1570 1632 17.65% 18.52% 63.83%-1.37 +16.7 3
1902-09-13 Glentoran L 1-355.2 1455 1572 42.94% 18.93% 38.13%-0.25 -13.0 1
1902-09-13 @ Bohemian W 3-155.2 1572 1455 38.13% 18.93% 42.94%+0.25 +13.0 5
1902-09-13 Linfield L 0-255.6 1543 1615 48.89% 18.94% 32.17%+0.15 -16.8 1
1902-09-13 @ Cliftonville W 2-055.6 1615 1543 32.17% 18.94% 48.89%-0.15 +16.8 2
1902-09-13 Ulster W 6-031.3 1459 1329 69.28% 18.06% 12.65%+1.99 +14.3 4
1902-09-13 @ Derry Celtic L 0-631.3 1329 1459 12.65% 18.06% 69.28%-1.99 -14.3 4
1902-09-13 Belfast Celtic W 2-146.6 1586 1441 70.32% 17.94% 11.74%+2.13 +2.4 5
1902-09-13 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-246.6 1441 1586 11.74% 17.94% 70.32%-2.13 -2.4 2
1902-09-20 Cliftonville D 1-160.6 1438 1526 46.87% 18.94% 34.19%+0.01 -0.5 3
1902-09-20 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-160.6 1526 1438 34.19% 18.94% 46.87%-0.01 +0.5 2
1902-09-20 Derry Celtic W 6-040.5 1585 1474 67.86% 18.21% 13.94%+1.81 +15.6 7
1902-09-20 @ Glentoran L 0-640.5 1474 1585 13.94% 18.21% 67.86%-1.81 -15.6 4
1902-09-20 Bohemian D 2-270.8 1632 1442 73.05% 17.55% 9.40%+2.53 -2.1 3
1902-09-20 @ Linfield D 2-270.8 1442 1632 9.40% 17.55% 73.05%-2.53 +2.1 2
1902-09-20 Lisburn Distillery L 1-245.6 1314 1589 22.95% 18.31% 58.75%-1.68 -4.4 4
1902-09-20 @ Ulster W 2-145.6 1589 1314 58.75% 18.31% 22.95%+1.68 +4.4 7
1902-09-27 Belfast Celtic L 1-453.4 1444 1438 58.34% 18.77% 22.89%+0.87 -24.2 2
1902-09-27 @ Bohemian W 4-153.4 1438 1444 22.89% 18.77% 58.34%-0.87 +24.2 5
1902-09-27 Linfield D 1-165.2 1458 1630 35.14% 18.81% 46.05%-0.76 +0.4 5
1902-09-27 @ Derry Celtic D 1-165.2 1630 1458 46.05% 18.81% 35.14%+0.76 -0.4 4
1902-09-27 Ulster W 4-137.8 1600 1310 77.93% 16.46% 5.61%+3.44 +2.8 9
1902-09-27 @ Glentoran L 1-437.8 1310 1600 5.61% 16.46% 77.93%-3.44 -2.8 4
1902-09-27 Cliftonville L 1-364.6 1593 1527 64.20% 18.49% 17.30%+1.41 -18.8 7
1902-09-27 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-164.6 1527 1593 17.30% 18.49% 64.20%-1.41 +18.8 4
1902-10-04 Derry Celtic W 2-039.6 1462 1458 58.02% 18.78% 23.20%+0.84 +8.9 7
1902-10-04 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-239.6 1458 1462 23.20% 18.78% 58.02%-0.84 -8.9 5
1902-10-04 Lisburn Distillery W 2-155.2 1420 1574 37.60% 18.86% 43.53%-0.59 +7.6 4
1902-10-04 @ Bohemian L 1-255.2 1574 1420 43.53% 18.86% 37.60%+0.59 -7.6 7
1902-10-04 Glentoran W 1-052.0 1545 1603 50.80% 18.92% 30.28%+0.28 +6.0 6
1902-10-04 @ Cliftonville L 0-152.0 1603 1545 30.28% 18.92% 50.80%-0.28 -6.0 9
1902-10-04 Ulster W 5-137.1 1629 1307 79.18% 16.07% 4.75%+3.73 +3.1 6
1902-10-04 @ Linfield L 1-537.1 1307 1629 4.75% 16.07% 79.18%-3.73 -3.1 4
1902-10-18 Ulster W 4-029.4 1471 1304 71.69% 17.76% 10.55%+2.32 +8.2 9
1902-10-18 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-429.4 1304 1471 10.55% 17.76% 71.69%-2.32 -8.2 4
1902-10-18 Bohemian L 2-368.1 1551 1428 68.77% 18.12% 13.11%+1.93 -11.0 6
1902-10-18 @ Cliftonville W 3-268.1 1428 1551 13.11% 18.12% 68.77%-1.93 +11.0 6
1902-10-18 Linfield L 0-160.9 1597 1632 53.54% 18.89% 27.57%+0.48 -9.6 9
1902-10-18 @ Glentoran W 1-060.9 1632 1597 27.57% 18.89% 53.54%-0.48 +9.7 8
1902-10-18 Derry Celtic W 3-145.7 1567 1449 68.33% 18.16% 13.51%+1.87 +4.7 9
1902-10-18 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-345.7 1449 1567 13.51% 18.16% 68.33%-1.87 -4.7 5
1902-11-01 Ulster W 5-134.6 1439 1296 70.14% 17.96% 11.90%+2.10 +7.7 8
1902-11-01 @ Bohemian L 1-534.6 1296 1439 11.90% 17.96% 70.14%-2.10 -7.7 4
1902-11-01 Belfast Celtic W 6-145.0 1642 1479 71.46% 17.79% 10.75%+2.29 +8.5 10
1902-11-01 @ Linfield L 1-645.0 1479 1642 10.75% 17.79% 71.46%-2.29 -8.5 9
1902-11-08 Derry Celtic W 2-039.3 1540 1445 66.65% 18.31% 15.03%+1.67 +6.0 8
1902-11-08 @ Cliftonville L 0-239.3 1445 1540 15.03% 18.31% 66.65%-1.67 -6.0 5
1902-11-08 Lisburn Distillery L 1-257.5 1471 1571 45.08% 18.94% 35.98%-0.11 -7.8 9
1902-11-08 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-157.5 1571 1471 35.98% 18.94% 45.08%+0.11 +7.8 11
1902-11-22 Lisburn Distillery D 2-273.3 1587 1579 58.50% 18.77% 22.73%+0.88 -1.1 10
1902-11-22 @ Glentoran D 2-273.3 1579 1587 22.73% 18.77% 58.50%-0.88 +1.1 12
1902-11-22 Cliftonville W 4-043.9 1651 1546 67.34% 18.25% 14.40%+1.75 +11.0 12
1902-11-22 @ Linfield L 0-443.9 1546 1651 14.40% 18.25% 67.34%-1.75 -11.0 8
1902-12-06 Glentoran W 3-154.8 1463 1586 41.92% 18.92% 39.16%-0.32 +12.0 11
1902-12-06 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-354.8 1586 1463 39.16% 18.92% 41.92%+0.32 -12.0 10
1902-12-06 Bohemian W 2-145.6 1439 1447 56.74% 18.82% 24.44%+0.73 +4.7 7
1902-12-06 @ Derry Celtic L 1-245.6 1447 1439 24.44% 18.82% 56.74%-0.73 -4.7 8
1902-12-06 Linfield W 2-159.6 1580 1662 47.72% 18.94% 33.33%+0.07 +6.1 14
1902-12-06 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-259.6 1662 1580 33.33% 18.94% 47.72%-0.07 -6.1 12
1902-12-06 Cliftonville L 0-139.7 1288 1535 25.87% 18.48% 55.66%-1.44 -5.2 4
1902-12-06 @ Ulster W 1-039.7 1535 1288 55.66% 18.48% 25.87%+1.44 +5.2 10
1902-12-27 Bohemian W 4-037.6 1574 1442 69.41% 18.05% 12.54%+2.01 +9.7 12
1902-12-27 @ Glentoran L 0-437.6 1442 1574 12.54% 18.05% 69.41%-2.01 -9.7 8
1902-12-27 Derry Celtic W 3-254.0 1283 1443 36.75% 18.85% 44.40%-0.65 +7.3 6
1902-12-27 @ Ulster L 2-354.0 1443 1283 44.40% 18.85% 36.75%+0.65 -7.3 7
1903-01-10 Glentoran W 4-153.6 1436 1584 38.45% 18.88% 42.67%-0.54 +18.2 9
1903-01-10 @ Derry Celtic L 1-453.6 1584 1436 42.67% 18.88% 38.45%+0.54 -18.2 12
1903-01-17 Lisburn Distillery L 1-361.4 1540 1586 52.26% 18.91% 28.84%+0.39 -15.4 10
1903-01-17 @ Cliftonville W 3-161.4 1586 1540 28.84% 18.91% 52.26%-0.39 +15.4 16
1903-01-17 Glentoran L 1-343.0 1290 1566 22.85% 18.30% 58.86%-1.69 -7.6 6
1903-01-17 @ Ulster W 3-143.0 1566 1290 58.86% 18.30% 22.85%+1.69 +7.6 14
1903-02-07 Belfast Celtic D 3-370.5 1454 1475 55.30% 18.86% 25.85%+0.62 -0.8 10
1903-02-07 @ Derry Celtic D 3-370.5 1475 1454 25.85% 18.86% 55.30%-0.62 +0.8 12
1903-02-07 Cliftonville W 2-151.5 1573 1525 62.52% 18.59% 18.88%+1.24 +3.7 16
1903-02-07 @ Glentoran L 1-251.5 1525 1573 18.88% 18.59% 62.52%-1.24 -3.7 10
1903-02-07 Bohemian W 5-037.8 1602 1432 71.87% 17.73% 10.40%+2.35 +9.9 18
1903-02-07 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-537.8 1432 1602 10.40% 17.73% 71.87%-2.35 -10.0 8
1903-02-07 Linfield L 0-535.4 1283 1656 14.49% 17.49% 68.01%-2.58 -13.4 6
1903-02-07 @ Ulster W 5-035.4 1656 1283 68.01% 17.49% 14.49%+2.58 +13.4 14
1903-02-14 Bohemian W 2-144.1 1476 1422 63.00% 18.57% 18.43%+1.29 +3.6 14
1903-02-14 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-244.1 1422 1476 18.43% 18.57% 63.00%-1.29 -3.6 8
1903-02-21 Belfast Celtic W 2-148.1 1521 1479 61.95% 18.62% 19.43%+1.19 +3.8 12
1903-02-21 @ Cliftonville L 1-248.1 1479 1521 19.43% 18.62% 61.95%-1.19 -3.8 14
1903-02-21 Glentoran D 1-169.4 1669 1577 66.37% 18.34% 15.30%+1.64 -2.2 15
1903-02-21 @ Linfield D 1-169.4 1577 1669 15.30% 18.34% 66.37%-1.64 +2.2 17
1903-02-23 Ulster W 5-135.1 1612 1269 79.91% 15.82% 4.28%+3.91 +2.8 20
1903-02-23 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-535.1 1269 1612 4.28% 15.82% 79.91%-3.91 -2.7 6
1903-02-28 Cliftonville D 1-159.9 1419 1525 44.30% 18.94% 36.77%-0.16 -0.3 9
1903-02-28 @ Bohemian D 1-159.9 1525 1419 36.77% 18.94% 44.30%+0.16 +0.3 13
1903-03-14 Derry Celtic W 3-040.2 1667 1453 74.36% 17.31% 8.33%+2.74 +5.0 17
1903-03-14 @ Linfield L 0-340.2 1453 1667 8.33% 17.31% 74.36%-2.74 -5.0 10
1903-03-17 Linfield L 0-344.6 1418 1672 25.15% 18.44% 56.41%-1.50 -13.8 9
1903-03-17 @ Bohemian W 3-044.6 1672 1418 56.41% 18.44% 25.15%+1.50 +13.8 19
1903-03-21 Lisburn Distillery W 3-157.1 1449 1615 35.94% 18.83% 45.23%-0.70 +13.5 12
1903-03-21 @ Derry Celtic L 1-357.1 1615 1449 45.23% 18.83% 35.94%+0.70 -13.5 20
1903-03-21 Belfast Celtic L 0-736.5 1267 1475 30.38% 18.67% 50.95%-1.09 -36.1 6
1903-03-21 @ Ulster W 7-036.5 1475 1267 50.95% 18.67% 30.38%+1.09 +36.1 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1902-09-06 7.22% Ulster 1315 1 @ Cliftonville 1556 0
2 1902-10-18 13.11% Bohemian 1428 3 @ Cliftonville 1551 2
3 1902-09-27 17.30% Cliftonville 1527 3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1593 1
4 1902-09-06 17.65% Lisburn Distillery 1570 4 @ Linfield 1632 2
5 1902-09-27 22.89% Belfast Celtic 1438 4 @ Bohemian 1444 1
6 1902-10-18 27.57% Linfield 1632 1 @ Glentoran 1597 0
7 1903-01-17 28.84% Lisburn Distillery 1586 3 @ Cliftonville 1540 1
8 1902-08-30 29.50% @ Belfast Celtic 1430 4 Linfield 1646 2
9 1902-09-13 32.17% Linfield 1615 2 @ Cliftonville 1543 0
10 1903-03-21 35.94% @ Derry Celtic 1449 3 Lisburn Distillery 1615 1
11 1902-11-08 35.98% Lisburn Distillery 1571 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1471 1
12 1902-12-27 36.75% @ Ulster 1283 3 Derry Celtic 1443 2
13 1902-08-30 37.40% @ Ulster 1308 3 Bohemian 1463 2
14 1902-10-04 37.60% @ Bohemian 1420 2 Lisburn Distillery 1574 1
15 1902-09-13 38.13% Glentoran 1572 3 @ Bohemian 1455 1
16 1903-01-10 38.45% @ Derry Celtic 1436 4 Glentoran 1584 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1903-03-21 36.09 Belfast Celtic 7 1475 50.95% @ Ulster 0 1267 30.38% 18.67%
2 1902-09-27 24.18 Belfast Celtic 4 1438 22.89% @ Bohemian 1 1444 58.34% 18.77%
3 1902-09-27 18.79 Cliftonville 3 1527 17.30% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1593 64.20% 18.49%
4 1903-01-10 18.24 @ Derry Celtic 4 1436 38.45% Glentoran 1 1584 42.67% 18.88%
5 1902-09-13 16.75 Linfield 2 1615 32.17% @ Cliftonville 0 1543 48.89% 18.94%
6 1902-09-06 16.71 Lisburn Distillery 4 1570 17.65% @ Linfield 2 1632 63.83% 18.52%
7 1902-09-20 15.63 @ Glentoran 6 1585 67.86% Derry Celtic 0 1474 13.94% 18.21%
8 1903-01-17 15.41 Lisburn Distillery 3 1586 28.84% @ Cliftonville 1 1540 52.26% 18.91%
9 1902-09-13 14.27 @ Derry Celtic 6 1459 69.28% Ulster 0 1329 12.65% 18.06%
10 1903-03-17 13.84 Linfield 3 1672 56.41% @ Bohemian 0 1418 25.15% 18.44%
11 1902-08-30 13.66 @ Belfast Celtic 4 1430 29.50% Linfield 2 1646 51.86% 18.64%
12 1902-09-06 13.58 Ulster 1 1315 7.22% @ Cliftonville 0 1556 75.76% 17.02%
13 1903-03-21 13.54 @ Derry Celtic 3 1449 35.94% Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 45.23% 18.83%
14 1903-02-07 13.44 Linfield 5 1656 68.01% @ Ulster 0 1283 14.49% 17.49%
15 1902-09-13 12.97 Glentoran 3 1572 38.13% @ Bohemian 1 1455 42.94% 18.93%
16 1902-12-06 12.03 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1463 41.92% Glentoran 1 1586 39.16% 18.92%
17 1902-10-18 11.04 Bohemian 3 1428 13.11% @ Cliftonville 2 1551 68.77% 18.12%
18 1902-11-22 11.01 @ Linfield 4 1651 67.34% Cliftonville 0 1546 14.40% 18.25%
19 1903-02-07 9.95 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1602 71.87% Bohemian 0 1432 10.40% 17.73%
20 1902-12-27 9.67 @ Glentoran 4 1574 69.41% Bohemian 0 1442 12.54% 18.05%
21 1902-10-18 9.65 Linfield 1 1632 27.57% @ Glentoran 0 1597 53.54% 18.89%
22 1902-10-04 8.94 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1462 58.02% Derry Celtic 0 1458 23.20% 18.78%
23 1902-11-01 8.51 @ Linfield 6 1642 71.46% Belfast Celtic 1 1479 10.75% 17.79%
24 1902-10-18 8.19 @ Belfast Celtic 4 1471 71.69% Ulster 0 1304 10.55% 17.76%
25 1902-11-08 7.81 Lisburn Distillery 2 1571 35.98% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1471 45.08% 18.94%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1902-11-22 73.3 @ Glentoran 2 1587 58.50% Lisburn Distillery 2 1579 22.73% 18.77%
2 1902-09-06 72.1 Lisburn Distillery 4 1570 17.65% @ Linfield 2 1632 63.83% 18.52%
3 1902-09-20 70.8 @ Linfield 2 1632 73.05% Bohemian 2 1442 9.40% 17.55%
4 1903-02-07 70.5 @ Derry Celtic 3 1454 55.30% Belfast Celtic 3 1475 25.85% 18.86%
5 1902-09-06 70.0 @ Bohemian 3 1456 57.38% Derry Celtic 3 1458 23.82% 18.80%
6 1903-02-21 69.4 @ Linfield 1 1669 66.37% Glentoran 1 1577 15.30% 18.34%
7 1902-08-30 68.2 @ Derry Celtic 2 1459 45.55% Cliftonville 2 1556 35.51% 18.94%
8 1902-10-18 68.1 Bohemian 3 1428 13.11% @ Cliftonville 2 1551 68.77% 18.12%
9 1902-08-30 66.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1571 58.01% Glentoran 1 1568 23.21% 18.78%
10 1902-09-27 65.2 @ Derry Celtic 1 1458 35.14% Linfield 1 1630 46.05% 18.81%
11 1902-08-30 64.9 @ Belfast Celtic 4 1430 29.50% Linfield 2 1646 51.86% 18.64%
12 1902-09-27 64.6 Cliftonville 3 1527 17.30% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1593 64.20% 18.49%
13 1903-01-17 61.4 Lisburn Distillery 3 1586 28.84% @ Cliftonville 1 1540 52.26% 18.91%
14 1902-10-18 60.9 Linfield 1 1632 27.57% @ Glentoran 0 1597 53.54% 18.89%
15 1902-09-20 60.6 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1438 46.87% Cliftonville 1 1526 34.19% 18.94%
16 1903-02-28 59.9 @ Bohemian 1 1419 44.30% Cliftonville 1 1525 36.77% 18.94%
17 1902-12-06 59.6 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1580 47.72% Linfield 1 1662 33.33% 18.94%
18 1902-11-08 57.5 Lisburn Distillery 2 1571 35.98% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1471 45.08% 18.94%
19 1903-03-21 57.1 @ Derry Celtic 3 1449 35.94% Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 45.23% 18.83%
20 1902-09-13 55.6 Linfield 2 1615 32.17% @ Cliftonville 0 1543 48.89% 18.94%
21 1902-09-06 55.5 Ulster 1 1315 7.22% @ Cliftonville 0 1556 75.76% 17.02%
22 1902-09-13 55.2 Glentoran 3 1572 38.13% @ Bohemian 1 1455 42.94% 18.93%
23 1902-10-04 55.2 @ Bohemian 2 1420 37.60% Lisburn Distillery 1 1574 43.53% 18.86%
24 1902-12-06 54.8 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1463 41.92% Glentoran 1 1586 39.16% 18.92%
25 1902-08-30 54.6 @ Ulster 3 1308 37.40% Bohemian 2 1463 43.75% 18.86%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1902-10-18 29.4 @ Belfast Celtic 4 1471 71.69% Ulster 0 1304 10.55% 17.76%
2 1902-09-13 31.3 @ Derry Celtic 6 1459 69.28% Ulster 0 1329 12.65% 18.06%
3 1902-11-01 34.6 @ Bohemian 5 1439 70.14% Ulster 1 1296 11.90% 17.96%
4 1903-02-23 35.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1612 79.91% Ulster 1 1269 4.28% 15.82%
5 1903-02-07 35.4 Linfield 5 1656 68.01% @ Ulster 0 1283 14.49% 17.49%
6 1903-03-21 36.5 Belfast Celtic 7 1475 50.95% @ Ulster 0 1267 30.38% 18.67%
7 1902-10-04 37.1 @ Linfield 5 1629 79.18% Ulster 1 1307 4.75% 16.07%
8 1902-12-27 37.6 @ Glentoran 4 1574 69.41% Bohemian 0 1442 12.54% 18.05%
9 1902-09-27 37.8 @ Glentoran 4 1600 77.93% Ulster 1 1310 5.61% 16.46%
10 1903-02-07 37.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1602 71.87% Bohemian 0 1432 10.40% 17.73%
11 1902-11-08 39.3 @ Cliftonville 2 1540 66.65% Derry Celtic 0 1445 15.03% 18.31%
12 1902-10-04 39.6 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1462 58.02% Derry Celtic 0 1458 23.20% 18.78%
13 1902-12-06 39.7 Cliftonville 1 1535 55.66% @ Ulster 0 1288 25.87% 18.48%
14 1903-03-14 40.2 @ Linfield 3 1667 74.36% Derry Celtic 0 1453 8.33% 17.31%
15 1902-09-20 40.5 @ Glentoran 6 1585 67.86% Derry Celtic 0 1474 13.94% 18.21%
16 1903-01-17 43.0 Glentoran 3 1566 58.86% @ Ulster 1 1290 22.85% 18.30%
17 1902-11-22 43.9 @ Linfield 4 1651 67.34% Cliftonville 0 1546 14.40% 18.25%
18 1903-02-14 44.1 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1476 63.00% Bohemian 1 1422 18.43% 18.57%
19 1903-03-17 44.6 Linfield 3 1672 56.41% @ Bohemian 0 1418 25.15% 18.44%
20 1902-11-01 45.0 @ Linfield 6 1642 71.46% Belfast Celtic 1 1479 10.75% 17.79%
21 1902-09-20 45.6 Lisburn Distillery 2 1589 58.75% @ Ulster 1 1314 22.95% 18.31%
22 1902-12-06 45.6 @ Derry Celtic 2 1439 56.74% Bohemian 1 1447 24.44% 18.82%
23 1902-10-18 45.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1567 68.33% Derry Celtic 1 1449 13.51% 18.16%
24 1902-09-06 46.5 @ Glentoran 2 1569 68.93% Belfast Celtic 1 1443 12.97% 18.10%
25 1902-09-13 46.6 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1586 70.32% Belfast Celtic 1 1441 11.74% 17.94%