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1903-04 Irish League Season

49 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Linfield

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Linfield

5.91 points above expected

24 points · 18.09 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Derry Celtic

3.08 points below expected

6 points · 9.08 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 13 11 2 0 24 40 9 +31 18.09 +5.91
2 Lisburn Distillery 13 7 4 2 18 29 13 +16 16.80 +1.20
3 Glentoran 13 6 6 1 18 17 10 +7 13.92 +4.08
4 Belfast Celtic 13 4 2 7 10 19 16 +3 12.43 -2.43
5 Cliftonville 13 4 2 7 10 20 30 -10 12.16 -2.16
6 Bohemian 13 3 3 7 9 16 33 -17 9.61 -0.61
7 Derry Celtic 13 2 2 9 6 14 24 -10 9.08 -3.08
8 Kings Own Scottish Borderers 7 1 1 5 3 7 27 -20 5.91 -2.91

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Linfield 24 18.09 +5.91
2 Glentoran 18 13.92 +4.08
3 Lisburn Distillery 18 16.80 +1.20
4 Bohemian 9 9.61 -0.61
5 Cliftonville 10 12.16 -2.16

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Derry Celtic 6 9.08 -3.08
2 Kings Own Scottish Borderers 3 5.91 -2.91
3 Belfast Celtic 10 12.43 -2.43
4 Cliftonville 10 12.16 -2.16
5 Bohemian 9 9.61 -0.61

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 9 Sep 19 – Feb 20 1 in 167
2 Cliftonville 3 Aug 29 – Sep 12 1 in 14
3 Glentoran 3 Oct 24 – Dec 5 1 in 5
4 Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1 Jan 16 – Jan 16 1 in 5
5 Lisburn Distillery 2 Sep 12 – Sep 19 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Kings Own Scottish Borderers 4 Sep 5 – Oct 31 1 in 38
2 Derry Celtic 4 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 23
3 Belfast Celtic 2 Dec 26 – Jan 16 1 in 9
4 Cliftonville 3 Dec 5 – Jan 16 1 in 8
5 Bohemian 2 Oct 24 – Oct 31 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 12 Sep 12 – Apr 5 1 in 280
2 Linfield 13 Aug 29 – Apr 5 1 in 22
3 Bohemian 3 Sep 5 – Sep 26 1 in 6
4 Derry Celtic 2 Jan 16 – Feb 20 1 in 4
5 Cliftonville 3 Aug 29 – Sep 12 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 3 Dec 26 – Feb 20 1 in 16
2 Cliftonville 5 Sep 19 – Oct 31 1 in 14
3 Kings Own Scottish Borderers 5 Sep 5 – Nov 28 1 in 10
4 Bohemian 6 Oct 3 – Dec 5 1 in 7
5 Glentoran 3 Sep 26 – Oct 17 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1791 24 +91 9 7.6 +1.4
Glentoran 1588 18 +37 8 5.5 +2.5
Lisburn Distillery 1661 18 +19 7 6.9 +0.1
Cliftonville 1410 10 -82 3 4.3 -1.3
Belfast Celtic 1499 10 -13 3 5.3 -2.3
Bohemian 1353 9 -23 3 3.1 -0.1
Derry Celtic 1403 6 -29 2 3.0 -1.0
Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1294 3 -43 3 3.7 -0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE KOSB LIN LD
Belfast Celtic —
1-1-0
3.37
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.35
1-0-1
2.35
0-0-1
1.91
0-0-2
1.48
0-0-2
1.94
Bohemian
0-1-1
2.16
 —
2-0-0
1.89
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
1.79
0-1-0
1.37
0-0-2
1.22
0-0-2
1.48
Cliftonville
1-0-1
3.05
0-0-2
3.66
 —
2-0-0
3.57
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-0
1.14
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
1.50
Derry Celtic
0-1-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.97
 —
0-0-2
1.86
1-0-0
1.21
0-0-2
1.52
0-1-1
1.22
Glentoran
1-0-1
3.18
1-1-0
3.75
1-1-0
3.12
2-0-0
3.68
 —
1-0-0
1.95
0-2-0
1.76
0-2-0
1.96
Kings Own Scottish Borderers
1-0-0
0.87
0-1-0
1.40
0-0-1
1.63
0-0-1
1.56
0-0-1
0.82
 —
0-0-1
0.40
0-0-1
1.14
Linfield
2-0-0
4.06
2-0-0
4.35
2-0-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.03
0-2-0
3.78
1-0-0
2.39
 —
2-0-0
2.96
Lisburn Distillery
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.06
1-1-0
4.04
1-1-0
4.33
0-2-0
3.58
1-0-0
1.63
0-0-2
2.58
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +6.2
Allowed 0.64 -6.0
Differential 0.88 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.16%7.14%5.10%1.02%—3.06%24.49%
17.14%8.16%9.18%3.06%1.02%4.08%32.65%
25.10%9.18%4.08%3.06%2.04%—23.47%
31.02%3.06%3.06%2.04%——9.18%
4—1.02%2.04%———3.06%
5+3.06%4.08%————7.14%
Total24.49%32.65%23.47%9.18%3.06%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.65 +0.00
SD 1.71 1.71 2.60
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 49

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%———23.08%
115.38%—30.77%———46.15%
2——7.69%7.69%——15.38%
37.69%—————7.69%
4———————
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total38.46%7.69%46.15%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.61 1.09 2.17
CV 1.10 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—15.38%——7.69%30.77%
1———7.69%7.69%7.69%23.08%
2—15.38%15.38%—7.69%—38.46%
3—7.69%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.69%23.08%30.77%7.69%15.38%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.54 -1.31
SD 1.01 1.76 2.25
CV 0.82 0.69 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%—7.69%——15.38%
17.69%7.69%7.69%15.38%—7.69%46.15%
27.69%7.69%——7.69%—23.08%
3———7.69%——7.69%
4———————
5+—7.69%————7.69%
Total15.38%30.77%7.69%30.77%7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 2.31 -0.77
SD 1.33 2.14 2.68
CV 0.86 0.93 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%23.08%7.69%———38.46%
1—7.69%15.38%——7.69%30.77%
27.69%——15.38%——23.08%
3———————
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+———————
Total15.38%38.46%23.08%15.38%—7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.85 -0.77
SD 1.19 1.82 2.09
CV 1.10 0.99 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
023.08%7.69%————30.77%
17.69%23.08%————30.77%
27.69%15.38%————23.08%
3——7.69%———7.69%
4——7.69%———7.69%
5+———————
Total38.46%46.15%15.38%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 0.77 +0.54
SD 1.25 0.73 0.88
CV 0.96 0.94 —
Max 4 2 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%——28.57%42.86%
1——14.29%——14.29%28.57%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3——14.29%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total——57.14%——42.86%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 3.86 -2.86
SD 1.15 2.41 3.24
CV 1.15 0.62 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 2 -7

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—————7.69%
123.08%7.69%————30.77%
27.69%7.69%————15.38%
3—7.69%7.69%———15.38%
4——7.69%———7.69%
5+7.69%15.38%————23.08%
Total46.15%38.46%15.38%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.08 0.69 +2.38
SD 2.66 0.75 2.53
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 8 2 +7
Min 0 0 +0

Games Played: 13

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%————15.38%
1—15.38%7.69%———23.08%
27.69%23.08%————30.77%
3—7.69%—7.69%——15.38%
4———————
5+7.69%7.69%————15.38%
Total23.08%61.54%7.69%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.00 +1.23
SD 1.96 0.82 2.20
CV 0.88 0.82 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 13

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1791 24 18.09 +5.91 99.0% 11 14 16 18 20 23 25
Lisburn Distillery 1643 18 16.80 +1.20 67.0% 7 11 15 17 19 22 23
Glentoran 1606 18 13.92 +4.08 94.0% 8 9 12 14 15 19 20
Belfast Celtic 1499 10 12.43 -2.43 18.0% 6 7 11 13 14 16 17
Cliftonville 1410 10 12.16 -2.16 28.0% 4 7 10 12 14 17 20
Derry Celtic 1403 6 9.08 -3.08 19.0% 1 4 7 9 12 14 15
Bohemian 1353 9 9.61 -0.61 50.0% 4 5 8 9 11 15 16
Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1294 3 5.91 -2.91 13.0% 1 2 4 6 7 10 11

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.33%
Clear Edge
46.94%22.45%30.61%
Elo Value
Home Edge
110 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
057.24300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.08 goals
Neutral
-2+0.52+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
53%
Linfield, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.50/gm
Runaway
00.230.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.22 * Some Luck: 2.22 to 3.33 * Lucky: 3.33 to 4.44 * Wild Swing: 4.44 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.79 * Close: 0.79 to 1.19 * Off: 1.19 to 1.58 * Way Off: 1.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.20 points
Some Luck
02.787
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.00
Pinpoint
00.992
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
99.00%
Linfield
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
13.00%
Kings Own Scottish Borderers
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.30
Lopsided
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 168.99
2.32
Wide Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
78%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Rare
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.41
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.41
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.23 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.23 to 0.34 * Above Noise: 0.34 to 0.46 * Well Above Noise: 0.46 and up.
Probability calibration
0.26
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.91
Very Underconfident
01.002.18269
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.150
Well Within Noise
00.2290.6

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Glentoran 2
Lisburn Distillery 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Linfield53.00%32.00%9.00%5.00%—1.00%——
Lisburn Distillery36.00%42.00%5.00%11.00%4.00%1.00%—1.00%
Glentoran8.00%9.00%44.00%14.00%15.00%9.00%1.00%—
Belfast Celtic1.00%9.00%18.00%30.00%21.00%16.00%4.00%1.00%
Cliftonville2.00%7.00%14.00%22.00%33.00%14.00%5.00%3.00%
Bohemian—1.00%3.00%8.00%13.00%26.00%35.00%14.00%
Derry Celtic——7.00%10.00%12.00%25.00%32.00%14.00%
Kings Own Scottish Borderers————2.00%8.00%23.00%67.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Kings Own Scottish Borderers 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1903-08-29 Belfast Celtic W 2-150.9 1491 1481 50.96% 23.26% 25.79%+0.61 +11.1 2
1903-08-29 @ Cliftonville L 1-250.9 1481 1491 25.79% 23.26% 50.96%-0.61 -11.1 0
1903-08-29 Linfield L 2-358.9 1445 1610 27.78% 23.14% 49.08%-0.98 -11.2 0
1903-08-29 @ Derry Celtic W 3-258.9 1610 1445 49.08% 23.14% 27.78%+0.98 +11.2 2
1903-08-29 Bohemian W 5-142.7 1542 1424 61.77% 22.83% 15.40%+1.59 +22.8 2
1903-08-29 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-542.7 1424 1542 15.40% 22.83% 61.77%-1.59 -22.8 0
1903-09-05 Glentoran W 1-050.6 1470 1531 41.76% 23.33% 34.91%-0.04 +15.0 2
1903-09-05 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-150.6 1531 1470 34.91% 23.33% 41.76%+0.04 -15.0 0
1903-09-05 Derry Celtic W 2-148.0 1402 1434 45.72% 23.32% 30.96%+0.23 +12.9 2
1903-09-05 @ Bohemian L 1-248.0 1434 1402 30.96% 23.32% 45.72%-0.23 -12.9 0
1903-09-05 Cliftonville L 1-552.6 1475 1502 46.40% 23.31% 30.28%+0.28 -56.2 0
1903-09-05 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers W 5-152.6 1502 1475 30.28% 23.31% 46.40%-0.28 +56.2 4
1903-09-05 Lisburn Distillery W 2-156.5 1622 1565 56.12% 23.12% 20.76%+1.04 +9.3 4
1903-09-05 @ Linfield L 1-256.5 1565 1622 20.76% 23.12% 56.12%-1.04 -9.3 2
1903-09-12 Cliftonville L 0-246.7 1421 1558 31.32% 23.22% 45.45%-0.73 -26.0 0
1903-09-12 @ Derry Celtic W 2-046.7 1558 1421 45.45% 23.22% 31.32%+0.73 +26.0 6
1903-09-12 Linfield D 1-166.6 1516 1631 34.32% 23.28% 42.40%-0.52 +0.7 1
1903-09-12 @ Glentoran D 1-166.6 1631 1516 42.40% 23.28% 34.32%+0.52 -0.7 5
1903-09-12 Belfast Celtic W 2-151.5 1556 1485 57.55% 23.06% 19.39%+1.17 +8.8 4
1903-09-12 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-251.5 1485 1556 19.39% 23.06% 57.55%-1.17 -8.8 2
1903-09-19 Belfast Celtic D 2-262.2 1415 1476 41.79% 23.33% 34.88%-0.04 -0.4 3
1903-09-19 @ Bohemian D 2-262.2 1476 1415 34.88% 23.33% 41.79%+0.04 +0.4 3
1903-09-19 Glentoran L 2-355.4 1395 1517 33.31% 23.26% 43.43%-0.59 -13.0 0
1903-09-19 @ Derry Celtic W 3-255.4 1517 1395 43.43% 23.26% 33.31%+0.59 +13.0 3
1903-09-19 Lisburn Distillery L 0-744.0 1419 1564 30.18% 23.20% 46.62%-0.81 -81.2 0
1903-09-19 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers W 7-044.0 1564 1419 46.62% 23.20% 30.18%+0.81 +81.2 6
1903-09-19 Cliftonville W 1-053.3 1630 1584 55.03% 23.15% 21.81%+0.94 +10.3 7
1903-09-19 @ Linfield L 0-153.3 1584 1630 21.81% 23.15% 55.03%-0.94 -10.3 6
1903-09-26 Bohemian L 1-263.1 1574 1414 64.96% 22.57% 12.47%+1.97 -24.5 6
1903-09-26 @ Cliftonville W 2-163.1 1414 1574 12.47% 22.57% 64.96%-1.97 +24.5 5
1903-09-26 Lisburn Distillery D 0-063.9 1530 1646 34.17% 23.27% 42.55%-0.53 +0.8 4
1903-09-26 @ Glentoran D 0-063.9 1646 1530 42.55% 23.27% 34.17%+0.53 -0.8 7
1903-09-26 Derry Celtic L 0-243.5 1337 1382 44.07% 23.33% 32.60%+0.11 -34.1 0
1903-09-26 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers W 2-043.5 1382 1337 32.60% 23.33% 44.07%-0.11 +34.1 2
1903-09-26 Belfast Celtic W 1-047.7 1641 1476 65.27% 22.54% 12.19%+2.02 +6.2 9
1903-09-26 @ Linfield L 0-147.7 1476 1641 12.19% 22.54% 65.27%-2.02 -6.2 3
1903-10-03 Linfield L 2-456.4 1439 1647 22.94% 22.96% 54.11%-1.37 -15.6 5
1903-10-03 @ Bohemian W 4-256.4 1647 1439 54.11% 22.96% 22.94%+1.37 +15.6 11
1903-10-03 Glentoran D 1-164.5 1549 1531 51.97% 23.24% 24.79%+0.69 -2.4 7
1903-10-03 @ Cliftonville D 1-164.5 1531 1549 24.79% 23.24% 51.97%-0.69 +2.4 5
1903-10-03 Derry Celtic W 2-148.7 1645 1416 69.24% 22.02% 8.73%+2.60 +4.3 9
1903-10-03 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-248.7 1416 1645 8.73% 22.02% 69.24%-2.60 -4.3 2
1903-10-17 Derry Celtic W 1-042.1 1470 1412 56.31% 23.11% 20.58%+1.05 +9.8 5
1903-10-17 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-142.1 1412 1470 20.58% 23.11% 56.31%-1.05 -9.8 2
1903-10-17 Glentoran D 0-056.5 1423 1533 34.92% 23.28% 41.80%-0.48 +0.7 6
1903-10-17 @ Bohemian D 0-056.5 1533 1423 41.80% 23.28% 34.92%+0.48 -0.7 6
1903-10-17 Cliftonville W 3-153.7 1649 1547 60.45% 22.91% 16.63%+1.45 +13.3 11
1903-10-17 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-353.7 1547 1649 16.63% 22.91% 60.45%-1.45 -13.3 7
1903-10-24 Bohemian W 4-144.1 1402 1424 47.09% 23.31% 29.60%+0.32 +30.5 4
1903-10-24 @ Derry Celtic L 1-444.1 1424 1402 29.60% 23.31% 47.09%-0.32 -30.5 6
1903-10-24 Belfast Celtic W 2-151.0 1533 1480 55.70% 23.13% 21.17%+1.00 +9.5 8
1903-10-24 @ Glentoran L 1-251.0 1480 1533 21.17% 23.13% 55.70%-1.00 -9.5 5
1903-10-24 Linfield L 0-163.4 1662 1662 49.81% 23.28% 26.92%+0.52 -20.1 11
1903-10-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-063.4 1662 1662 26.92% 23.28% 49.81%-0.52 +20.1 13
1903-10-31 Cliftonville W 3-047.2 1471 1534 41.58% 23.33% 35.09%-0.05 +41.3 7
1903-10-31 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-347.2 1534 1471 35.09% 23.33% 41.58%+0.05 -41.3 7
1903-10-31 Lisburn Distillery L 0-245.0 1393 1642 18.90% 22.73% 58.37%-1.75 -17.1 6
1903-10-31 @ Bohemian W 2-045.0 1642 1393 58.37% 22.73% 18.90%+1.75 +17.1 13
1903-10-31 Glentoran L 1-244.8 1303 1542 19.88% 22.79% 57.33%-1.65 -8.9 0
1903-10-31 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers W 2-144.8 1542 1303 57.33% 22.79% 19.88%+1.65 +8.9 10
1903-10-31 Derry Celtic W 7-143.7 1682 1433 70.35% 21.83% 7.82%+2.80 +17.6 15
1903-10-31 @ Linfield L 1-743.7 1433 1682 7.82% 21.83% 70.35%-2.80 -17.6 4
1903-11-28 Lisburn Distillery L 1-258.9 1512 1660 29.97% 23.19% 46.84%-0.82 -12.6 7
1903-11-28 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-158.9 1660 1512 46.84% 23.19% 29.97%+0.82 +12.5 15
1903-11-28 Derry Celtic W 1-042.3 1492 1415 58.17% 23.03% 18.80%+1.23 +9.1 9
1903-11-28 @ Cliftonville L 0-142.3 1415 1492 18.80% 23.03% 58.17%-1.23 -9.1 4
1903-11-28 Bohemian D 2-257.6 1294 1376 38.94% 23.32% 37.74%-0.22 -0.1 1
1903-11-28 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers D 2-257.6 1376 1294 37.74% 23.32% 38.94%+0.22 +0.1 7
1903-12-05 Bohemian W 6-035.3 1499 1376 62.21% 22.80% 14.99%+1.64 +39.1 9
1903-12-05 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-635.3 1376 1499 14.99% 22.80% 62.21%-1.64 -39.1 7
1903-12-05 Linfield L 1-850.9 1501 1700 23.93% 23.00% 53.07%-1.29 -55.3 9
1903-12-05 @ Cliftonville W 8-150.9 1700 1501 53.07% 23.00% 23.93%+1.29 +55.3 17
1903-12-05 Derry Celtic W 1-042.3 1551 1406 63.92% 22.66% 13.42%+1.84 +6.8 12
1903-12-05 @ Glentoran L 0-142.3 1406 1551 13.42% 22.66% 63.92%-1.84 -6.8 4
1903-12-26 Linfield L 0-252.6 1538 1755 22.02% 22.91% 55.07%-1.45 -19.5 9
1903-12-26 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-052.6 1755 1538 55.07% 22.91% 22.02%+1.45 +19.5 19
1903-12-26 Cliftonville W 3-148.4 1337 1446 35.10% 23.29% 41.61%-0.47 +28.1 9
1903-12-26 @ Bohemian L 1-348.4 1446 1337 41.61% 23.29% 35.10%+0.47 -28.1 9
1903-12-26 Glentoran D 1-168.7 1672 1558 61.48% 22.85% 15.67%+1.56 -4.3 16
1903-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-168.7 1558 1672 15.67% 22.85% 61.48%-1.56 +4.3 13
1904-01-16 Lisburn Distillery D 1-164.3 1399 1668 17.20% 22.60% 60.19%-1.93 +4.0 5
1904-01-16 @ Derry Celtic D 1-164.3 1668 1399 60.19% 22.60% 17.20%+1.93 -4.0 17
1904-01-16 Cliftonville W 4-249.6 1562 1418 63.85% 22.67% 13.48%+1.83 +9.9 15
1904-01-16 @ Glentoran L 2-449.6 1418 1562 13.48% 22.67% 63.85%-1.83 -9.9 9
1904-01-16 Belfast Celtic W 3-259.2 1294 1519 21.24% 22.87% 55.89%-1.52 +19.9 3
1904-01-16 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers L 2-359.2 1519 1294 55.89% 22.87% 21.24%+1.52 -19.9 9
1904-01-16 Bohemian W 3-147.5 1775 1365 76.56% 20.06% 3.39%+4.25 +2.9 21
1904-01-16 @ Linfield L 1-347.5 1365 1775 3.39% 20.06% 76.56%-4.25 -2.9 9
1904-02-20 Lisburn Distillery D 3-372.8 1408 1664 18.32% 22.69% 59.00%-1.81 +2.3 10
1904-02-20 @ Cliftonville D 3-372.8 1664 1408 59.00% 22.69% 18.32%+1.81 -2.4 18
1904-02-20 Belfast Celtic D 0-054.6 1403 1499 36.91% 23.31% 39.79%-0.35 +0.3 6
1904-02-20 @ Derry Celtic D 0-054.6 1499 1403 39.79% 23.31% 36.91%+0.35 -0.3 10
1904-02-20 Bohemian W 2-038.3 1572 1362 68.17% 22.19% 9.64%+2.43 +9.4 17
1904-02-20 @ Glentoran L 0-238.3 1362 1572 9.64% 22.19% 68.17%-2.43 -9.4 9
1904-02-20 Linfield L 0-740.1 1314 1778 6.40% 20.79% 72.81%-3.70 -20.0 3
1904-02-20 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers W 7-040.1 1778 1314 72.81% 20.79% 6.40%+3.70 +20.0 23
1904-04-05 Glentoran D 0-067.4 1798 1581 68.56% 22.13% 9.31%+2.49 -6.5 24
1904-04-05 @ Linfield D 0-067.4 1581 1798 9.31% 22.13% 68.56%-2.49 +6.5 18

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1904-04-25 Lisburn Distillery W 2-166.0 1588 1661 28.47% 23.24% 48.29%-0.67 +18.4 1-0
1904-04-25 @ Glentoran L 1-266.0 1661 1588 48.29% 23.24% 28.47%+0.67 -18.4 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1903-09-26 12.47% Bohemian 1414 2 @ Cliftonville 1574 1
2 1904-01-16 21.24% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1294 3 Belfast Celtic 1519 2
3 1903-10-24 26.92% Linfield 1662 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1662 0
4 1904-04-25 * 28.47% @ Glentoran 1588 2 Lisburn Distillery 1661 1
5 1903-09-05 30.28% Cliftonville 1502 5 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1475 1
6 1903-09-26 32.60% Derry Celtic 1382 2 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1337 0
7 1903-12-26 35.10% @ Bohemian 1337 3 Cliftonville 1446 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1903-09-19 81.18 Lisburn Distillery 7 1564 46.62% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1419 30.18% 23.20%
2 1903-09-05 56.25 Cliftonville 5 1502 30.28% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1 1475 46.40% 23.31%
3 1903-12-05 55.28 Linfield 8 1700 53.07% @ Cliftonville 1 1501 23.93% 23.00%
4 1903-10-31 41.32 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1471 41.58% Cliftonville 0 1534 35.09% 23.33%
5 1903-12-05 39.07 @ Belfast Celtic 6 1499 62.21% Bohemian 0 1376 14.99% 22.80%
6 1903-09-26 34.06 Derry Celtic 2 1382 32.60% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1337 44.07% 23.33%
7 1903-10-24 30.49 @ Derry Celtic 4 1402 47.09% Bohemian 1 1424 29.60% 23.31%
8 1903-12-26 28.13 @ Bohemian 3 1337 35.10% Cliftonville 1 1446 41.61% 23.29%
9 1903-09-12 26.01 Cliftonville 2 1558 45.45% @ Derry Celtic 0 1421 31.32% 23.22%
10 1903-09-26 24.50 Bohemian 2 1414 12.47% @ Cliftonville 1 1574 64.96% 22.57%
11 1903-08-29 22.78 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1542 61.77% Bohemian 1 1424 15.40% 22.83%
12 1903-10-24 20.07 Linfield 1 1662 26.92% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1662 49.81% 23.28%
13 1904-02-20 20.01 Linfield 7 1778 72.81% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1314 6.40% 20.79%
14 1904-01-16 19.93 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 3 1294 21.24% Belfast Celtic 2 1519 55.89% 22.87%
15 1903-12-26 19.49 Linfield 2 1755 55.07% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1538 22.02% 22.91%
16 1904-04-25 * 18.41 @ Glentoran 2 1588 28.47% Lisburn Distillery 1 1661 48.29% 23.24%
17 1903-10-31 17.65 @ Linfield 7 1682 70.35% Derry Celtic 1 1433 7.82% 21.83%
18 1903-10-31 17.11 Lisburn Distillery 2 1642 58.37% @ Bohemian 0 1393 18.90% 22.73%
19 1903-10-03 15.63 Linfield 4 1647 54.11% @ Bohemian 2 1439 22.94% 22.96%
20 1903-09-05 15.03 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1470 41.76% Glentoran 0 1531 34.91% 23.33%
21 1903-10-17 13.35 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1649 60.45% Cliftonville 1 1547 16.63% 22.91%
22 1903-09-19 12.95 Glentoran 3 1517 43.43% @ Derry Celtic 2 1395 33.31% 23.26%
23 1903-09-05 12.90 @ Bohemian 2 1402 45.72% Derry Celtic 1 1434 30.96% 23.32%
24 1903-11-28 12.55 Lisburn Distillery 2 1660 46.84% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1512 29.97% 23.19%
25 1903-08-29 11.20 Linfield 3 1610 49.08% @ Derry Celtic 2 1445 27.78% 23.14%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-02-20 72.8 @ Cliftonville 3 1408 18.32% Lisburn Distillery 3 1664 59.00% 22.69%
2 1903-12-26 68.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1672 61.48% Glentoran 1 1558 15.67% 22.85%
3 1904-04-05 67.4 @ Linfield 0 1798 68.56% Glentoran 0 1581 9.31% 22.13%
4 1903-09-12 66.6 @ Glentoran 1 1516 34.32% Linfield 1 1631 42.40% 23.28%
5 1904-04-25 * 66.0 @ Glentoran 2 1588 28.47% Lisburn Distillery 1 1661 48.29% 23.24%
6 1903-10-03 64.5 @ Cliftonville 1 1549 51.97% Glentoran 1 1531 24.79% 23.24%
7 1904-01-16 64.3 @ Derry Celtic 1 1399 17.20% Lisburn Distillery 1 1668 60.19% 22.60%
8 1903-09-26 63.9 @ Glentoran 0 1530 34.17% Lisburn Distillery 0 1646 42.55% 23.27%
9 1903-10-24 63.4 Linfield 1 1662 26.92% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1662 49.81% 23.28%
10 1903-09-26 63.1 Bohemian 2 1414 12.47% @ Cliftonville 1 1574 64.96% 22.57%
11 1903-09-19 62.2 @ Bohemian 2 1415 41.79% Belfast Celtic 2 1476 34.88% 23.33%
12 1904-01-16 59.2 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 3 1294 21.24% Belfast Celtic 2 1519 55.89% 22.87%
13 1903-08-29 58.9 Linfield 3 1610 49.08% @ Derry Celtic 2 1445 27.78% 23.14%
14 1903-11-28 58.9 Lisburn Distillery 2 1660 46.84% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1512 29.97% 23.19%
15 1903-11-28 57.6 @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 2 1294 38.94% Bohemian 2 1376 37.74% 23.32%
16 1903-09-05 56.5 @ Linfield 2 1622 56.12% Lisburn Distillery 1 1565 20.76% 23.12%
17 1903-10-17 56.5 @ Bohemian 0 1423 34.92% Glentoran 0 1533 41.80% 23.28%
18 1903-10-03 56.4 Linfield 4 1647 54.11% @ Bohemian 2 1439 22.94% 22.96%
19 1903-09-19 55.4 Glentoran 3 1517 43.43% @ Derry Celtic 2 1395 33.31% 23.26%
20 1904-02-20 54.6 @ Derry Celtic 0 1403 36.91% Belfast Celtic 0 1499 39.79% 23.31%
21 1903-10-17 53.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1649 60.45% Cliftonville 1 1547 16.63% 22.91%
22 1903-09-19 53.3 @ Linfield 1 1630 55.03% Cliftonville 0 1584 21.81% 23.15%
23 1903-09-05 52.6 Cliftonville 5 1502 30.28% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1 1475 46.40% 23.31%
24 1903-12-26 52.6 Linfield 2 1755 55.07% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1538 22.02% 22.91%
25 1903-09-12 51.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1556 57.55% Belfast Celtic 1 1485 19.39% 23.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1903-12-05 35.3 @ Belfast Celtic 6 1499 62.21% Bohemian 0 1376 14.99% 22.80%
2 1904-02-20 38.3 @ Glentoran 2 1572 68.17% Bohemian 0 1362 9.64% 22.19%
3 1904-02-20 40.1 Linfield 7 1778 72.81% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1314 6.40% 20.79%
4 1903-10-17 42.1 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1470 56.31% Derry Celtic 0 1412 20.58% 23.11%
5 1903-11-28 42.3 @ Cliftonville 1 1492 58.17% Derry Celtic 0 1415 18.80% 23.03%
6 1903-12-05 42.3 @ Glentoran 1 1551 63.92% Derry Celtic 0 1406 13.42% 22.66%
7 1903-08-29 42.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1542 61.77% Bohemian 1 1424 15.40% 22.83%
8 1903-09-26 43.5 Derry Celtic 2 1382 32.60% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1337 44.07% 23.33%
9 1903-10-31 43.7 @ Linfield 7 1682 70.35% Derry Celtic 1 1433 7.82% 21.83%
10 1903-09-19 44.0 Lisburn Distillery 7 1564 46.62% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 0 1419 30.18% 23.20%
11 1903-10-24 44.1 @ Derry Celtic 4 1402 47.09% Bohemian 1 1424 29.60% 23.31%
12 1903-10-31 44.8 Glentoran 2 1542 57.33% @ Kings Own Scottish Borderers 1 1303 19.88% 22.79%
13 1903-10-31 45.0 Lisburn Distillery 2 1642 58.37% @ Bohemian 0 1393 18.90% 22.73%
14 1903-09-12 46.7 Cliftonville 2 1558 45.45% @ Derry Celtic 0 1421 31.32% 23.22%
15 1903-10-31 47.2 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1471 41.58% Cliftonville 0 1534 35.09% 23.33%
16 1904-01-16 47.5 @ Linfield 3 1775 76.56% Bohemian 1 1365 3.39% 20.06%
17 1903-09-26 47.7 @ Linfield 1 1641 65.27% Belfast Celtic 0 1476 12.19% 22.54%
18 1903-09-05 48.0 @ Bohemian 2 1402 45.72% Derry Celtic 1 1434 30.96% 23.32%
19 1903-12-26 48.4 @ Bohemian 3 1337 35.10% Cliftonville 1 1446 41.61% 23.29%
20 1903-10-03 48.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1645 69.24% Derry Celtic 1 1416 8.73% 22.02%
21 1904-01-16 49.6 @ Glentoran 4 1562 63.85% Cliftonville 2 1418 13.48% 22.67%
22 1903-09-05 50.6 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1470 41.76% Glentoran 0 1531 34.91% 23.33%
23 1903-08-29 50.9 @ Cliftonville 2 1491 50.96% Belfast Celtic 1 1481 25.79% 23.26%
24 1903-12-05 50.9 Linfield 8 1700 53.07% @ Cliftonville 1 1501 23.93% 23.00%
25 1903-10-24 51.0 @ Glentoran 2 1533 55.70% Belfast Celtic 1 1480 21.17% 23.13%