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1904-05 Irish League Season

56 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Belfast Celtic

21 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Belfast Celtic

6.86 points above expected

21 points · 14.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Linfield

3.50 points below expected

16 points · 19.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 14 9 3 2 21 21 10 +11 14.14 +6.86
2 Glentoran 14 9 3 2 21 22 12 +10 16.77 +4.23
3 Linfield 14 6 4 4 16 18 12 +6 19.50 -3.50
4 Lisburn Distillery 14 6 3 5 15 16 11 +5 18.05 -3.05
5 Cliftonville 14 6 1 7 13 17 17 0 11.15 +1.85
6 Shelbourne 14 5 3 6 13 15 17 -2 14.05 -1.05
7 Derry Celtic 14 1 5 8 7 12 31 -19 9.08 -2.08
8 Bohemian 14 2 2 10 6 15 26 -11 9.26 -3.26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 21 14.14 +6.86
2 Glentoran 21 16.77 +4.23
3 Cliftonville 13 11.15 +1.85
4 Shelbourne 13 14.05 -1.05
5 Derry Celtic 7 9.08 -2.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Linfield 16 19.50 -3.50
2 Bohemian 6 9.26 -3.26
3 Lisburn Distillery 15 18.05 -3.05
4 Derry Celtic 7 9.08 -2.08
5 Shelbourne 13 14.05 -1.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 2 Sep 17 – Sep 24 1 in 19
2 Glentoran 4 Sep 24 – Nov 19 1 in 14
3 Lisburn Distillery 4 Oct 8 – Nov 26 1 in 14
4 Belfast Celtic 3 Sep 3 – Sep 17 1 in 8
5 Derry Celtic 1 Jan 14 – Jan 14 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 4 Dec 10 – Jan 14 1 in 237
2 Shelbourne 3 Jan 14 – Feb 18 1 in 42
3 Linfield 2 Jan 28 – Feb 18 1 in 27
4 Cliftonville 4 Oct 8 – Nov 26 1 in 13
5 Derry Celtic 4 Oct 22 – Dec 10 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 9 Oct 22 – Feb 18 1 in 119
2 Shelbourne 6 Sep 10 – Nov 12 1 in 12
3 Derry Celtic 2 Sep 24 – Oct 8 1 in 7
4 Glentoran 6 Dec 10 – Feb 18 1 in 6
5 Cliftonville 3 Dec 10 – Dec 26 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Derry Celtic 11 Sep 3 – Dec 26 1 in 27
2 Lisburn Distillery 4 Dec 10 – Jan 14 1 in 19
3 Linfield 3 Sep 10 – Sep 24 1 in 17
4 Shelbourne 3 Jan 14 – Feb 18 1 in 7
5 Belfast Celtic 4 Sep 24 – Nov 12 1 in 4

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Belfast Celtic 1595 21 +80 9 4.9 +4.1
Glentoran 1626 21 +48 9 7.0 +2.0
Linfield 1610 16 -42 5 6.9 -1.9
Lisburn Distillery 1559 15 -90 3 7.1 -4.1
Cliftonville 1520 13 +95 7 3.6 +3.4
Shelbourne 1454 13 -81 2 5.3 -3.3
Derry Celtic 1328 7 +31 4 2.5 +1.5
Bohemian 1309 6 -40 1 2.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
3.77
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
1.72
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.99
Bohemian
0-0-2
1.75
 —
1-0-1
2.86
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-2
1.18
0-1-1
0.95
0-0-2
1.29
0-0-2
1.73
Cliftonville
0-0-2
2.21
1-0-1
2.69
 —
1-1-0
3.25
0-0-2
1.86
1-0-1
1.36
2-0-0
1.48
1-0-1
2.14
Derry Celtic
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
2.86
0-1-1
2.30
 —
0-0-2
1.48
0-1-1
1.05
0-1-1
1.23
1-1-0
1.50
Glentoran
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
4.40
2-0-0
3.70
2-0-0
4.09
 —
1-1-0
1.95
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
3.22
Linfield
0-1-1
3.84
1-1-0
4.63
1-0-1
4.21
1-1-0
4.54
0-1-1
3.61
 —
1-0-1
3.09
2-0-0
3.87
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
4.28
0-0-2
4.08
1-1-0
4.34
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.47
 —
0-1-1
3.73
Shelbourne
0-1-1
2.57
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
3.42
0-1-1
4.07
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
1.69
1-1-0
1.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.83 +15.4
Allowed 0.81 -6.6
Differential 0.89 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%8.93%10.71%4.46%1.79%0.89%35.71%
18.93%7.14%6.25%4.46%——26.79%
210.71%6.25%3.57%0.89%0.89%—22.32%
34.46%4.46%0.89%1.79%——11.61%
41.79%—0.89%———2.68%
5+0.89%—————0.89%
Total35.71%26.79%22.32%11.61%2.68%0.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.21 +0.00
SD 1.18 1.18 1.86
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—7.14%——21.43%
121.43%14.29%————35.71%
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4——7.14%———7.14%
5+———————
Total50.00%35.71%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.71 +0.79
SD 1.22 0.91 1.53
CV 0.82 1.28 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—28.57%14.29%——7.14%50.00%
1—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%42.86%21.43%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.86 -0.79
SD 1.38 1.29 2.04
CV 1.29 0.70 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%21.43%7.14%——42.86%
17.14%—7.14%7.14%——21.43%
27.14%14.29%————21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total35.71%21.43%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.21 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.12 2.29
CV 1.22 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
021.43%—7.14%14.29%14.29%—57.14%
1——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
2——7.14%—7.14%—14.29%
3—7.14%—7.14%——14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%7.14%21.43%28.57%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.21 -1.36
SD 1.17 1.48 1.78
CV 1.36 0.67 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
121.43%14.29%—7.14%——42.86%
214.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%35.71%14.29%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 0.86 +0.71
SD 0.85 0.95 1.44
CV 0.54 1.11 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%—7.14%——35.71%
17.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
221.43%—7.14%———28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total50.00%21.43%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 0.86 +0.43
SD 1.27 1.03 1.74
CV 0.99 1.20 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%14.29%———35.71%
17.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
214.29%7.14%————21.43%
314.29%—————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%21.43%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 0.79 +0.36
SD 1.10 0.89 1.69
CV 0.96 1.14 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%21.43%———35.71%
17.14%7.14%7.14%7.14%——28.57%
214.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%35.71%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.21 -0.14
SD 1.00 0.97 1.56
CV 0.93 0.80 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glentoran 1648 21 16.77 +4.23 96.0% 9 12 15 17 18 21 23
Linfield 1610 16 19.50 -3.50 13.0% 12 15 17 19 21 25 27
Belfast Celtic 1572 21 14.14 +6.86 98.0% 7 8 12 14 16 20 22
Lisburn Distillery 1559 15 18.05 -3.05 16.0% 10 13 16 18 20 22 23
Cliftonville 1520 13 11.15 +1.85 82.0% 5 7 9 11 13 15 17
Shelbourne 1454 13 14.05 -1.05 43.0% 7 9 12 14 16 20 23
Derry Celtic 1328 7 9.08 -2.08 28.0% 1 4 7 9 11 14 17
Bohemian 1309 6 9.26 -3.26 15.0% 4 5 8 9 11 14 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.29%
Clear Edge
46.43%21.43%32.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 49.98 Elo pts.
235 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.43 goals
Neutral
-2+0.21+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
7%
Belfast Celtic, 4th of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.5 * Lucky: 3.5 to 4.66 * Wild Swing: 4.66 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.86 * Close: 0.86 to 1.29 * Off: 1.29 to 1.71 * Way Off: 1.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.64 points
Lucky
02.917
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.50
Off
01.072.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
98.00%
Belfast Celtic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
13.00%
Linfield
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 124.72
1.68
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
73%
Slight Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.51
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.66
Strong Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.21 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.21 to 0.32 * Above Noise: 0.32 to 0.43 * Well Above Noise: 0.43 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.86
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.107
Well Within Noise
00.2140.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Glentoran 3
Belfast Celtic 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Belfast Celtic7.00%9.00%16.00%22.00%23.00%14.00%5.00%4.00%
Glentoran17.00%19.00%31.00%21.00%9.00%2.00%—1.00%
Linfield45.00%33.00%13.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%——
Lisburn Distillery25.00%31.00%22.00%13.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%—
Cliftonville—1.00%2.00%10.00%18.00%35.00%22.00%12.00%
Shelbourne6.00%5.00%15.00%19.00%28.00%15.00%7.00%5.00%
Derry Celtic—1.00%1.00%7.00%4.00%13.00%34.00%40.00%
Bohemian—1.00%—3.00%9.00%18.00%31.00%38.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1904-09-03 Belfast Celtic L 0-149.3 1426 1483 41.36% 22.32% 36.32%-0.03 -15.8 0
1904-09-03 @ Cliftonville W 1-049.3 1483 1426 36.32% 22.32% 41.36%+0.03 +15.8 2
1904-09-03 Bohemian D 3-369.2 1427 1384 54.01% 22.19% 23.80%+0.39 -1.6 1
1904-09-03 @ Derry Celtic D 3-369.2 1384 1427 23.80% 22.19% 54.01%-0.39 +1.6 1
1904-09-03 Lisburn Distillery D 1-170.0 1550 1583 44.67% 22.32% 33.01%+0.07 -0.9 1
1904-09-03 @ Glentoran D 1-170.0 1583 1550 33.01% 22.32% 44.67%-0.07 +0.9 1
1904-09-03 Linfield L 0-152.8 1485 1664 25.40% 22.07% 52.54%-0.55 -10.7 0
1904-09-03 @ Shelbourne W 1-052.8 1664 1485 52.54% 22.07% 25.40%+0.55 +10.7 2
1904-09-10 Derry Celtic W 3-038.1 1499 1425 57.34% 22.09% 20.57%+0.53 +24.5 4
1904-09-10 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-338.1 1425 1499 20.57% 22.09% 57.34%-0.53 -24.5 1
1904-09-10 Cliftonville W 3-146.3 1386 1410 45.85% 22.31% 31.83%+0.11 +21.0 3
1904-09-10 @ Bohemian L 1-346.3 1410 1386 31.83% 22.31% 45.85%-0.11 -21.0 0
1904-09-10 Glentoran D 2-278.8 1674 1549 62.16% 21.85% 15.99%+0.75 -3.0 3
1904-09-10 @ Linfield D 2-278.8 1549 1674 15.99% 21.85% 62.16%-0.75 +3.0 2
1904-09-10 Shelbourne D 0-062.2 1584 1474 60.73% 21.93% 17.34%+0.68 -4.2 2
1904-09-10 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-062.2 1474 1584 17.34% 21.93% 60.73%-0.68 +4.2 1
1904-09-17 Bohemian W 3-145.5 1523 1407 61.38% 21.90% 16.72%+0.71 +12.2 6
1904-09-17 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-345.5 1407 1523 16.72% 21.90% 61.38%-0.71 -12.2 3
1904-09-17 Derry Celtic W 2-149.1 1389 1400 47.52% 22.30% 30.18%+0.16 +11.6 2
1904-09-17 @ Cliftonville L 1-249.1 1400 1389 30.18% 22.30% 47.52%-0.16 -11.6 1
1904-09-17 Lisburn Distillery L 1-271.7 1671 1579 59.13% 22.01% 18.86%+0.60 -20.5 3
1904-09-17 @ Linfield W 2-171.7 1579 1671 18.86% 22.01% 59.13%-0.60 +20.5 4
1904-09-17 Glentoran W 3-155.9 1478 1552 39.11% 22.32% 38.57%-0.10 +24.4 3
1904-09-17 @ Shelbourne L 1-355.9 1552 1478 38.57% 22.32% 39.11%+0.10 -24.4 2
1904-09-24 Linfield D 0-061.7 1389 1651 17.21% 21.64% 61.15%-0.90 +4.3 2
1904-09-24 @ Derry Celtic D 0-061.7 1651 1389 61.15% 21.64% 17.21%+0.90 -4.3 4
1904-09-24 Belfast Celtic W 1-051.4 1527 1536 47.93% 22.30% 29.77%+0.18 +12.2 4
1904-09-24 @ Glentoran L 0-151.4 1536 1527 29.77% 22.30% 47.93%-0.18 -12.2 6
1904-09-24 Cliftonville L 0-160.2 1600 1401 67.58% 21.38% 11.04%+1.06 -24.9 4
1904-09-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-060.2 1401 1600 11.04% 21.38% 67.58%-1.06 +24.9 4
1904-09-24 Bohemian W 1-041.6 1503 1394 60.66% 21.94% 17.40%+0.68 +7.8 5
1904-09-24 @ Shelbourne L 0-141.6 1394 1503 17.40% 21.94% 60.66%-0.68 -7.8 3
1904-10-08 Lisburn Distillery L 0-351.0 1523 1575 42.14% 22.32% 35.53%-0.01 -43.9 6
1904-10-08 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-051.0 1575 1523 35.53% 22.32% 42.14%+0.01 +43.9 6
1904-10-08 Glentoran L 1-255.4 1425 1539 33.43% 22.26% 44.31%-0.27 -12.6 4
1904-10-08 @ Cliftonville W 2-155.4 1539 1425 44.31% 22.26% 33.43%+0.27 +12.6 6
1904-10-08 Bohemian W 3-255.1 1647 1387 71.04% 20.89% 8.07%+1.32 +3.4 6
1904-10-08 @ Linfield L 2-355.1 1387 1647 8.07% 20.89% 71.04%-1.32 -3.4 3
1904-10-08 Derry Celtic D 2-268.5 1511 1393 61.46% 21.89% 16.65%+0.71 -2.9 6
1904-10-08 @ Shelbourne D 2-268.5 1393 1511 16.65% 21.89% 61.46%-0.71 +2.9 3
1904-10-22 Linfield D 0-064.6 1479 1650 26.33% 22.10% 51.57%-0.51 +2.3 7
1904-10-22 @ Belfast Celtic D 0-064.6 1650 1479 51.57% 22.10% 26.33%+0.51 -2.3 7
1904-10-22 Lisburn Distillery L 0-145.9 1383 1619 19.54% 21.79% 58.67%-0.79 -8.5 3
1904-10-22 @ Bohemian W 1-045.9 1619 1383 58.67% 21.79% 19.54%+0.79 +8.5 8
1904-10-22 Shelbourne L 0-244.7 1413 1508 36.03% 22.29% 41.68%-0.19 -26.7 4
1904-10-22 @ Cliftonville W 2-044.7 1508 1413 41.68% 22.29% 36.03%+0.19 +26.7 8
1904-10-22 Glentoran L 0-243.2 1396 1552 28.06% 22.15% 49.79%-0.45 -21.8 3
1904-10-22 @ Derry Celtic W 2-043.2 1552 1396 49.79% 22.15% 28.06%+0.45 +21.8 8
1904-11-12 Lisburn Distillery L 0-340.0 1374 1627 17.96% 21.69% 60.35%-0.87 -21.7 3
1904-11-12 @ Derry Celtic W 3-040.0 1627 1374 60.35% 21.69% 17.96%+0.87 +21.7 10
1904-11-12 Cliftonville W 2-040.0 1648 1386 71.12% 20.87% 8.00%+1.33 +7.1 9
1904-11-12 @ Linfield L 0-240.0 1386 1648 8.00% 20.87% 71.12%-1.33 -7.1 4
1904-11-12 Belfast Celtic D 1-166.0 1534 1482 55.14% 22.16% 22.70%+0.44 -2.7 9
1904-11-12 @ Shelbourne D 1-166.0 1482 1534 22.70% 22.16% 55.14%-0.44 +2.7 8
1904-11-19 Bohemian W 1-041.3 1574 1375 67.57% 21.38% 11.05%+1.06 +5.1 10
1904-11-19 @ Glentoran L 0-141.3 1375 1574 11.05% 21.38% 67.57%-1.06 -5.1 3
1904-11-26 Cliftonville W 2-037.2 1484 1379 60.38% 21.95% 17.66%+0.66 +14.8 10
1904-11-26 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-237.2 1379 1484 17.66% 21.95% 60.38%-0.66 -14.8 4
1904-11-26 Derry Celtic W 4-034.7 1370 1352 51.07% 22.25% 26.67%+0.29 +39.8 5
1904-11-26 @ Bohemian L 0-434.7 1352 1370 26.67% 22.25% 51.07%-0.29 -39.8 3
1904-11-26 Shelbourne W 2-047.5 1655 1532 61.93% 21.86% 16.20%+0.74 +13.7 11
1904-11-26 @ Linfield L 0-247.5 1532 1655 16.20% 21.86% 61.93%-0.74 -13.7 9
1904-11-26 Glentoran W 2-049.9 1649 1579 56.97% 22.10% 20.92%+0.51 +17.1 12
1904-11-26 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-249.9 1579 1649 20.92% 22.10% 56.97%-0.51 -17.1 10
1904-12-10 Bohemian W 5-038.5 1364 1409 43.04% 22.32% 34.64%+0.02 +60.6 6
1904-12-10 @ Cliftonville L 0-538.5 1409 1364 34.64% 22.32% 43.04%-0.02 -60.6 5
1904-12-10 Belfast Celtic L 2-447.8 1313 1499 24.51% 22.04% 53.46%-0.58 -15.1 3
1904-12-10 @ Derry Celtic W 4-247.8 1499 1313 53.46% 22.04% 24.51%+0.58 +15.1 12
1904-12-10 Linfield W 1-060.1 1562 1668 34.40% 22.27% 43.33%-0.24 +16.4 12
1904-12-10 @ Glentoran L 0-160.1 1668 1562 43.33% 22.27% 34.40%+0.24 -16.4 11
1904-12-10 Lisburn Distillery W 2-167.3 1518 1666 29.00% 22.17% 48.82%-0.42 +17.1 11
1904-12-10 @ Shelbourne L 1-267.3 1666 1518 48.82% 22.17% 29.00%+0.42 -17.1 12
1904-12-24 Belfast Celtic L 0-143.5 1349 1514 26.91% 22.12% 50.98%-0.49 -11.2 5
1904-12-24 @ Bohemian W 1-043.5 1514 1349 50.98% 22.12% 26.91%+0.49 +11.2 14
1904-12-24 Cliftonville D 0-052.2 1298 1425 31.66% 22.23% 46.11%-0.33 +1.3 4
1904-12-24 @ Derry Celtic D 0-052.2 1425 1298 46.11% 22.23% 31.66%+0.33 -1.3 7
1904-12-24 Shelbourne W 2-047.8 1578 1535 54.08% 22.19% 23.73%+0.40 +19.1 14
1904-12-24 @ Glentoran L 0-247.8 1535 1578 23.73% 22.19% 54.08%-0.40 -19.0 11
1904-12-24 Linfield L 0-259.4 1649 1652 48.60% 22.29% 29.11%+0.20 -34.1 12
1904-12-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-059.4 1652 1649 29.11% 22.29% 48.60%-0.20 +34.1 13
1904-12-26 Glentoran D 1-169.7 1526 1597 39.32% 22.32% 38.36%-0.09 -0.1 15
1904-12-26 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-169.7 1597 1526 38.36% 22.32% 39.32%+0.09 +0.1 15
1904-12-26 Shelbourne L 0-239.3 1338 1516 25.43% 22.07% 52.51%-0.55 -20.1 5
1904-12-26 @ Bohemian W 2-039.3 1516 1338 52.51% 22.07% 25.43%+0.55 +20.1 13
1904-12-26 Lisburn Distillery W 2-164.2 1423 1615 23.97% 22.01% 54.01%-0.60 +18.7 9
1904-12-26 @ Cliftonville L 1-264.2 1615 1423 54.01% 22.01% 23.97%+0.60 -18.7 12
1904-12-26 Derry Celtic W 4-034.4 1686 1299 76.28% 19.58% 4.14%+1.86 +7.0 15
1904-12-26 @ Linfield L 0-434.4 1299 1686 4.14% 19.58% 76.28%-1.86 -7.0 4
1905-01-14 Linfield D 1-166.2 1317 1693 9.74% 20.74% 69.52%-1.39 +5.4 6
1905-01-14 @ Bohemian D 1-166.2 1693 1317 69.52% 20.74% 9.74%+1.39 -5.4 16
1905-01-14 Shelbourne W 3-155.2 1292 1536 18.74% 21.74% 59.52%-0.83 +35.6 6
1905-01-14 @ Derry Celtic L 1-355.2 1536 1292 59.52% 21.74% 18.74%+0.83 -35.6 13
1905-01-14 Cliftonville W 3-040.2 1597 1442 64.51% 21.68% 13.81%+0.87 +17.3 17
1905-01-14 @ Glentoran L 0-340.2 1442 1597 13.81% 21.68% 64.51%-0.87 -17.3 9
1905-01-14 Belfast Celtic L 0-258.1 1596 1526 57.03% 22.10% 20.87%+0.51 -39.5 12
1905-01-14 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-058.1 1526 1596 20.87% 22.10% 57.03%-0.51 +39.5 17
1905-01-28 Derry Celtic W 3-142.6 1615 1327 72.36% 20.64% 7.00%+1.44 +5.4 19
1905-01-28 @ Glentoran L 1-342.6 1327 1615 7.00% 20.64% 72.36%-1.44 -5.4 6
1905-01-28 Belfast Celtic L 0-166.0 1688 1565 61.90% 21.86% 16.23%+0.74 -22.8 16
1905-01-28 @ Linfield W 1-066.0 1565 1688 16.23% 21.86% 61.90%-0.74 +22.8 19
1905-01-28 Bohemian W 2-034.9 1557 1323 69.65% 21.11% 9.24%+1.21 +8.2 14
1905-01-28 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-234.9 1323 1557 9.24% 21.11% 69.65%-1.21 -8.2 6
1905-01-28 Cliftonville L 0-251.2 1501 1425 57.53% 22.08% 20.39%+0.54 -39.9 13
1905-01-28 @ Shelbourne W 2-051.2 1425 1501 20.39% 22.08% 57.53%-0.54 +39.9 11
1905-02-18 Shelbourne W 2-153.1 1588 1461 62.28% 21.84% 15.88%+0.75 +6.7 21
1905-02-18 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-253.1 1461 1588 15.88% 21.84% 62.28%-0.75 -6.7 13
1905-02-18 Glentoran L 1-248.1 1315 1620 13.91% 21.34% 64.76%-1.09 -5.9 6
1905-02-18 @ Bohemian W 2-148.1 1620 1315 64.76% 21.34% 13.91%+1.09 +6.0 21
1905-02-18 Linfield W 3-055.7 1465 1665 23.04% 21.98% 54.98%-0.64 +55.4 13
1905-02-18 @ Cliftonville L 0-355.7 1665 1465 54.98% 21.98% 23.04%+0.64 -55.4 16
1905-02-18 Derry Celtic D 0-056.4 1565 1322 70.15% 21.04% 8.81%+1.25 -6.3 15
1905-02-18 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-056.4 1322 1565 8.81% 21.04% 70.15%-1.25 +6.3 7

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1905-04-01 Belfast Celtic W 3-160.3 1626 1595 43.26% 22.31% 34.43%+0.13 +22.3 1-0
1905-04-01 @ Glentoran L 1-360.3 1595 1626 34.43% 22.31% 43.26%-0.13 -22.3 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1904-09-24 11.04% Cliftonville 1401 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1600 0
2 1905-01-28 16.23% Belfast Celtic 1565 1 @ Linfield 1688 0
3 1905-01-14 18.74% @ Derry Celtic 1292 3 Shelbourne 1536 1
4 1904-09-17 18.86% Lisburn Distillery 1579 2 @ Linfield 1671 1
5 1905-01-28 20.39% Cliftonville 1425 2 @ Shelbourne 1501 0
6 1905-01-14 20.87% Belfast Celtic 1526 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1596 0
7 1905-02-18 23.04% @ Cliftonville 1465 3 Linfield 1665 0
8 1904-12-26 23.97% @ Cliftonville 1423 2 Lisburn Distillery 1615 1
9 1904-12-10 29.00% @ Shelbourne 1518 2 Lisburn Distillery 1666 1
10 1904-12-24 29.11% Linfield 1652 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1649 0
11 1904-12-10 34.40% @ Glentoran 1562 1 Linfield 1668 0
12 1904-10-08 35.53% Lisburn Distillery 1575 3 @ Belfast Celtic 1523 0
13 1904-09-03 36.32% Belfast Celtic 1483 1 @ Cliftonville 1426 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-12-10 60.57 @ Cliftonville 5 1364 43.04% Bohemian 0 1409 34.64% 22.32%
2 1905-02-18 55.36 @ Cliftonville 3 1465 23.04% Linfield 0 1665 54.98% 21.98%
3 1904-10-08 43.90 Lisburn Distillery 3 1575 35.53% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1523 42.14% 22.32%
4 1905-01-28 39.89 Cliftonville 2 1425 20.39% @ Shelbourne 0 1501 57.53% 22.08%
5 1904-11-26 39.83 @ Bohemian 4 1370 51.07% Derry Celtic 0 1352 26.67% 22.25%
6 1905-01-14 39.55 Belfast Celtic 2 1526 20.87% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1596 57.03% 22.10%
7 1905-01-14 35.63 @ Derry Celtic 3 1292 18.74% Shelbourne 1 1536 59.52% 21.74%
8 1904-12-24 34.11 Linfield 2 1652 29.11% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1649 48.60% 22.29%
9 1904-10-22 26.71 Shelbourne 2 1508 41.68% @ Cliftonville 0 1413 36.03% 22.29%
10 1904-09-24 24.91 Cliftonville 1 1401 11.04% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1600 67.58% 21.38%
11 1904-09-10 24.53 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1499 57.34% Derry Celtic 0 1425 20.57% 22.09%
12 1904-09-17 24.40 @ Shelbourne 3 1478 39.11% Glentoran 1 1552 38.57% 22.32%
13 1905-01-28 22.75 Belfast Celtic 1 1565 16.23% @ Linfield 0 1688 61.90% 21.86%
14 1905-04-01 * 22.32 @ Glentoran 3 1626 43.26% Belfast Celtic 1 1595 34.43% 22.31%
15 1904-10-22 21.84 Glentoran 2 1552 49.79% @ Derry Celtic 0 1396 28.06% 22.15%
16 1904-11-12 21.71 Lisburn Distillery 3 1627 60.35% @ Derry Celtic 0 1374 17.96% 21.69%
17 1904-09-10 20.98 @ Bohemian 3 1386 45.85% Cliftonville 1 1410 31.83% 22.31%
18 1904-09-17 20.49 Lisburn Distillery 2 1579 18.86% @ Linfield 1 1671 59.13% 22.01%
19 1904-12-26 20.13 Shelbourne 2 1516 52.51% @ Bohemian 0 1338 25.43% 22.07%
20 1904-12-24 19.06 @ Glentoran 2 1578 54.08% Shelbourne 0 1535 23.73% 22.19%
21 1904-12-26 18.74 @ Cliftonville 2 1423 23.97% Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 54.01% 22.01%
22 1905-01-14 17.29 @ Glentoran 3 1597 64.51% Cliftonville 0 1442 13.81% 21.68%
23 1904-11-26 17.14 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1649 56.97% Glentoran 0 1579 20.92% 22.10%
24 1904-12-10 17.11 @ Shelbourne 2 1518 29.00% Lisburn Distillery 1 1666 48.82% 22.17%
25 1904-12-10 16.39 @ Glentoran 1 1562 34.40% Linfield 0 1668 43.33% 22.27%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-09-10 78.8 @ Linfield 2 1674 62.16% Glentoran 2 1549 15.99% 21.85%
2 1904-09-17 71.7 Lisburn Distillery 2 1579 18.86% @ Linfield 1 1671 59.13% 22.01%
3 1904-09-03 70.0 @ Glentoran 1 1550 44.67% Lisburn Distillery 1 1583 33.01% 22.32%
4 1904-12-26 69.7 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1526 39.32% Glentoran 1 1597 38.36% 22.32%
5 1904-09-03 69.2 @ Derry Celtic 3 1427 54.01% Bohemian 3 1384 23.80% 22.19%
6 1904-10-08 68.5 @ Shelbourne 2 1511 61.46% Derry Celtic 2 1393 16.65% 21.89%
7 1904-12-10 67.3 @ Shelbourne 2 1518 29.00% Lisburn Distillery 1 1666 48.82% 22.17%
8 1905-01-14 66.2 @ Bohemian 1 1317 9.74% Linfield 1 1693 69.52% 20.74%
9 1904-11-12 66.0 @ Shelbourne 1 1534 55.14% Belfast Celtic 1 1482 22.70% 22.16%
10 1905-01-28 66.0 Belfast Celtic 1 1565 16.23% @ Linfield 0 1688 61.90% 21.86%
11 1904-10-22 64.6 @ Belfast Celtic 0 1479 26.33% Linfield 0 1650 51.57% 22.10%
12 1904-12-26 64.2 @ Cliftonville 2 1423 23.97% Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 54.01% 22.01%
13 1904-09-10 62.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1584 60.73% Shelbourne 0 1474 17.34% 21.93%
14 1904-09-24 61.7 @ Derry Celtic 0 1389 17.21% Linfield 0 1651 61.15% 21.64%
15 1905-04-01 * 60.3 @ Glentoran 3 1626 43.26% Belfast Celtic 1 1595 34.43% 22.31%
16 1904-09-24 60.2 Cliftonville 1 1401 11.04% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1600 67.58% 21.38%
17 1904-12-10 60.1 @ Glentoran 1 1562 34.40% Linfield 0 1668 43.33% 22.27%
18 1904-12-24 59.4 Linfield 2 1652 29.11% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1649 48.60% 22.29%
19 1905-01-14 58.1 Belfast Celtic 2 1526 20.87% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1596 57.03% 22.10%
20 1905-02-18 56.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1565 70.15% Derry Celtic 0 1322 8.81% 21.04%
21 1904-09-17 55.9 @ Shelbourne 3 1478 39.11% Glentoran 1 1552 38.57% 22.32%
22 1905-02-18 55.7 @ Cliftonville 3 1465 23.04% Linfield 0 1665 54.98% 21.98%
23 1904-10-08 55.4 Glentoran 2 1539 44.31% @ Cliftonville 1 1425 33.43% 22.26%
24 1905-01-14 55.2 @ Derry Celtic 3 1292 18.74% Shelbourne 1 1536 59.52% 21.74%
25 1904-10-08 55.1 @ Linfield 3 1647 71.04% Bohemian 2 1387 8.07% 20.89%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1904-12-26 34.4 @ Linfield 4 1686 76.28% Derry Celtic 0 1299 4.14% 19.58%
2 1904-11-26 34.7 @ Bohemian 4 1370 51.07% Derry Celtic 0 1352 26.67% 22.25%
3 1905-01-28 34.9 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1557 69.65% Bohemian 0 1323 9.24% 21.11%
4 1904-11-26 37.2 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1484 60.38% Cliftonville 0 1379 17.66% 21.95%
5 1904-09-10 38.1 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1499 57.34% Derry Celtic 0 1425 20.57% 22.09%
6 1904-12-10 38.5 @ Cliftonville 5 1364 43.04% Bohemian 0 1409 34.64% 22.32%
7 1904-12-26 39.3 Shelbourne 2 1516 52.51% @ Bohemian 0 1338 25.43% 22.07%
8 1904-11-12 40.0 Lisburn Distillery 3 1627 60.35% @ Derry Celtic 0 1374 17.96% 21.69%
9 1904-11-12 40.0 @ Linfield 2 1648 71.12% Cliftonville 0 1386 8.00% 20.87%
10 1905-01-14 40.2 @ Glentoran 3 1597 64.51% Cliftonville 0 1442 13.81% 21.68%
11 1904-11-19 41.3 @ Glentoran 1 1574 67.57% Bohemian 0 1375 11.05% 21.38%
12 1904-09-24 41.6 @ Shelbourne 1 1503 60.66% Bohemian 0 1394 17.40% 21.94%
13 1905-01-28 42.6 @ Glentoran 3 1615 72.36% Derry Celtic 1 1327 7.00% 20.64%
14 1904-10-22 43.2 Glentoran 2 1552 49.79% @ Derry Celtic 0 1396 28.06% 22.15%
15 1904-12-24 43.5 Belfast Celtic 1 1514 50.98% @ Bohemian 0 1349 26.91% 22.12%
16 1904-10-22 44.7 Shelbourne 2 1508 41.68% @ Cliftonville 0 1413 36.03% 22.29%
17 1904-09-17 45.5 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1523 61.38% Bohemian 1 1407 16.72% 21.90%
18 1904-10-22 45.9 Lisburn Distillery 1 1619 58.67% @ Bohemian 0 1383 19.54% 21.79%
19 1904-09-10 46.3 @ Bohemian 3 1386 45.85% Cliftonville 1 1410 31.83% 22.31%
20 1904-11-26 47.5 @ Linfield 2 1655 61.93% Shelbourne 0 1532 16.20% 21.86%
21 1904-12-10 47.8 Belfast Celtic 4 1499 53.46% @ Derry Celtic 2 1313 24.51% 22.04%
22 1904-12-24 47.8 @ Glentoran 2 1578 54.08% Shelbourne 0 1535 23.73% 22.19%
23 1905-02-18 48.1 Glentoran 2 1620 64.76% @ Bohemian 1 1315 13.91% 21.34%
24 1904-09-17 49.1 @ Cliftonville 2 1389 47.52% Derry Celtic 1 1400 30.18% 22.30%
25 1904-09-03 49.3 Belfast Celtic 1 1483 36.32% @ Cliftonville 0 1426 41.36% 22.32%