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1905-06 Irish League Season

56 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Cliftonville

19 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cliftonville

4.79 points above expected

19 points · 14.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glentoran

6.10 points below expected

7 points · 13.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cliftonville 14 7 5 2 19 19 8 +11 14.21 +4.79
2 Lisburn Distillery 14 8 3 3 19 20 13 +7 15.46 +3.54
3 Linfield 14 7 3 4 17 21 14 +7 15.34 +1.66
4 Belfast Celtic 14 6 3 5 15 20 18 +2 14.37 +0.63
5 Shelbourne 14 5 2 7 12 16 18 -2 14.15 -2.15
6 Bohemian 14 5 2 7 12 17 20 -3 12.69 -0.69
7 Derry Celtic 14 4 3 7 11 13 22 -9 12.68 -1.68
8 Glentoran 14 2 3 9 7 13 26 -13 13.10 -6.10

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cliftonville 19 14.21 +4.79
2 Lisburn Distillery 19 15.46 +3.54
3 Linfield 17 15.34 +1.66
4 Belfast Celtic 15 14.37 +0.63
5 Bohemian 12 12.69 -0.69

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glentoran 7 13.10 -6.10
2 Shelbourne 12 14.15 -2.15
3 Derry Celtic 11 12.68 -1.68
4 Bohemian 12 12.69 -0.69
5 Belfast Celtic 15 14.37 +0.63

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 5 Dec 25 – May 9 1 in 138
2 Linfield 5 Nov 11 – Jan 13 1 in 79
3 Lisburn Distillery 3 Oct 28 – Nov 18 1 in 27
4 Bohemian 2 Dec 9 – Dec 26 1 in 18
5 Shelbourne 2 Sep 2 – Sep 9 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Derry Celtic 4 Dec 9 – Feb 10 1 in 67
2 Linfield 2 Feb 10 – Mar 3 1 in 16
3 Glentoran 3 Oct 28 – Nov 25 1 in 14
4 Shelbourne 3 Dec 26 – Feb 10 1 in 13
5 Belfast Celtic 2 Oct 28 – Nov 11 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 11 Sep 23 – May 9 1 in 585
2 Linfield 7 Oct 21 – Jan 13 1 in 15
3 Belfast Celtic 5 Sep 9 – Oct 21 1 in 15
4 Derry Celtic 3 Sep 16 – Oct 7 1 in 4
5 Bohemian 2 Dec 9 – Dec 26 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 6 Nov 25 – Mar 31 1 in 29
2 Derry Celtic 7 Nov 11 – Mar 31 1 in 17
3 Glentoran 7 Sep 23 – Dec 9 1 in 12
4 Bohemian 5 Sep 9 – Oct 21 1 in 7
5 Linfield 4 Sep 9 – Oct 7 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Cliftonville 1652 19 +147 10 5.8 +4.2
Lisburn Distillery 1609 19 -10 6 6.3 -0.3
Linfield 1595 17 +26 6 6.1 -0.1
Belfast Celtic 1528 15 -1 5 4.5 +0.5
Bohemian 1519 12 +5 5 4.7 +0.3
Shelbourne 1412 12 -107 2 5.5 -3.5
Derry Celtic 1300 11 -187 1 3.8 -2.8
Glentoran 1384 7 -22 4 4.4 -0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
2.84
2-0-0
3.41
2-0-0
2.81
0-1-1
2.62
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.90
Bohemian
0-0-2
2.64
 —
1-0-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.10
0-0-2
1.91
1-0-1
2.57
Cliftonville
1-1-0
2.66
1-0-1
3.16
 —
1-1-0
2.81
1-1-0
3.09
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
2.43
2-0-0
2.61
Derry Celtic
0-0-2
2.08
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.68
 —
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
2.10
1-0-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.26
Glentoran
0-0-2
2.69
0-1-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
3.16
 —
0-0-2
2.55
0-0-2
2.04
1-1-0
2.42
Linfield
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
3.40
0-1-1
2.93
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
2.94
 —
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.93
Lisburn Distillery
1-1-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.58
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.15
2-0-0
3.46
0-1-1
2.79
 —
1-0-1
3.17
Shelbourne
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
2.93
0-0-2
2.88
0-1-1
3.24
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.33
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +11.7
Allowed 0.90 -7.2
Differential 0.95 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.93%11.61%6.25%4.46%0.89%—32.14%
111.61%7.14%5.36%6.25%—1.79%32.14%
26.25%5.36%5.36%2.68%——19.64%
34.46%6.25%2.68%———13.39%
40.89%—————0.89%
5+—1.79%————1.79%
Total32.14%32.14%19.64%13.39%0.89%1.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.24 1.24 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.76
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%————21.43%
17.14%7.14%—14.29%——28.57%
2—21.43%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%50.00%7.14%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.29 +0.14
SD 1.02 1.07 1.46
CV 0.71 0.83 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%14.29%——28.57%
17.14%7.14%21.43%7.14%——42.86%
214.29%—————14.29%
3——7.14%———7.14%
47.14%—————7.14%
5+———————
Total35.71%7.14%35.71%21.43%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.43 -0.21
SD 1.19 1.22 2.04
CV 0.98 0.86 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
121.43%14.29%————35.71%
214.29%—7.14%———21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total57.14%28.57%14.29%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 0.57 +0.79
SD 1.39 0.76 1.58
CV 1.03 1.32 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—50.00%
17.14%7.14%—7.14%—7.14%28.57%
2———————
37.14%14.29%————21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.57 -0.64
SD 1.21 1.60 2.21
CV 1.30 1.02 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%—7.14%——28.57%
17.14%14.29%21.43%7.14%—7.14%57.14%
2———7.14%——7.14%
3——7.14%———7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%28.57%28.57%21.43%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.86 -0.93
SD 0.83 1.35 1.38
CV 0.89 0.73 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%————21.43%
114.29%——14.29%——28.57%
27.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
314.29%7.14%————21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total42.86%28.57%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.00 +0.50
SD 1.09 1.11 1.65
CV 0.73 1.11 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
128.57%—————28.57%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total35.71%35.71%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 0.93 +0.50
SD 1.40 0.83 1.56
CV 0.98 0.89 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%14.29%7.14%——50.00%
1—7.14%————7.14%
214.29%——7.14%——21.43%
3—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total21.43%42.86%21.43%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.29 -0.14
SD 1.29 0.99 1.70
CV 1.13 0.77 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Cliftonville 1650 19 14.21 +4.79 97.0% 7 9 12 14 16 19 22
Lisburn Distillery 1612 19 15.46 +3.54 95.0% 8 11 14 16 17 19 22
Linfield 1595 17 15.34 +1.66 74.0% 8 10 13 15 18 19 22
Belfast Celtic 1528 15 14.37 +0.63 61.0% 6 10 12 15 17 19 21
Bohemian 1519 12 12.69 -0.69 44.0% 5 7 11 13 15 17 20
Shelbourne 1412 12 14.15 -2.15 29.0% 8 10 12 14 16 19 21
Glentoran 1384 7 13.10 -6.10 2.0% 4 8 11 13 15 18 20
Derry Celtic 1300 11 12.68 -1.68 32.0% 7 8 11 12 14 17 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+32.14%
Strong Edge
55.36%21.43%23.21%
Elo Value
Home Edge
193 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0115.78500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.70 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.60+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.7
Wide Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
Cliftonville, 3rd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.31 * Some Luck: 2.31 to 3.46 * Lucky: 3.46 to 4.62 * Wild Swing: 4.62 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.66 * Close: 1.66 to 2.5 * Off: 2.5 to 3.33 * Way Off: 3.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.24 points
Some Luck
02.897
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Pinpoint
02.085
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
97.00%
Cliftonville
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
2.00%
Glentoran
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 123.22
1.28
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
75%
Slight Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
88%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
61%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.12
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.18 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.18 to 0.27 * Above Noise: 0.27 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.60
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.06
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.120
Well Within Noise
00.1770.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Lisburn Distillery 2
Cliftonville 2

Leg 1: Cliftonville 0-0 Lisburn Distillery

Leg 2: Cliftonville 2-2 Lisburn Distillery

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Cliftonville15.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%7.00%9.00%
Lisburn Distillery20.00%17.00%23.00%18.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%5.00%
Linfield26.00%14.00%19.00%14.00%7.00%3.00%12.00%5.00%
Belfast Celtic14.00%19.00%8.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%16.00%8.00%
Shelbourne15.00%10.00%6.00%16.00%19.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%
Bohemian4.00%6.00%10.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%21.00%
Derry Celtic2.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%19.00%21.00%23.00%
Glentoran4.00%9.00%13.00%7.00%12.00%17.00%18.00%20.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1905-09-02 Shelbourne L 2-370.6 1526 1484 61.14% 25.23% 13.63%+0.82 -32.1 0
1905-09-02 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-270.6 1484 1526 13.63% 25.23% 61.14%-0.82 +32.1 2
1905-09-02 Cliftonville W 2-042.0 1434 1507 50.32% 25.58% 24.10%+0.22 +31.3 2
1905-09-02 @ Bohemian L 0-242.0 1507 1434 24.10% 25.58% 50.32%-0.22 -31.3 0
1905-09-02 Lisburn Distillery W 1-047.1 1428 1524 47.62% 25.60% 26.78%+0.10 +18.0 2
1905-09-02 @ Derry Celtic L 0-147.1 1524 1428 26.78% 25.60% 47.62%-0.10 -18.0 0
1905-09-02 Glentoran W 1-049.5 1545 1552 57.00% 25.43% 17.57%+0.56 +12.9 2
1905-09-02 @ Linfield L 0-149.5 1552 1545 17.57% 25.43% 57.00%-0.56 -12.9 0
1905-09-09 Derry Celtic W 2-038.3 1476 1446 60.15% 25.29% 14.56%+0.75 +20.7 2
1905-09-09 @ Cliftonville L 0-238.3 1446 1476 14.56% 25.29% 60.15%-0.75 -20.7 2
1905-09-09 Belfast Celtic L 1-266.5 1540 1494 61.43% 25.21% 13.36%+0.84 -34.1 0
1905-09-09 @ Glentoran W 2-166.5 1494 1540 13.36% 25.21% 61.43%-0.84 +34.0 2
1905-09-09 Bohemian W 3-146.0 1506 1466 61.00% 25.24% 13.76%+0.81 +17.1 2
1905-09-09 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-346.0 1466 1506 13.76% 25.24% 61.00%-0.81 -17.1 2
1905-09-09 Linfield W 3-151.9 1516 1558 53.65% 25.52% 20.83%+0.38 +24.1 4
1905-09-09 @ Shelbourne L 1-351.9 1558 1516 20.83% 25.52% 53.65%-0.38 -24.1 2
1905-09-16 Derry Celtic D 1-159.9 1448 1426 59.63% 25.31% 15.05%+0.72 -6.1 3
1905-09-16 @ Bohemian D 1-159.9 1426 1448 15.05% 25.31% 59.63%-0.72 +6.1 3
1905-09-16 Lisburn Distillery L 0-158.1 1496 1523 55.21% 25.48% 19.31%+0.46 -32.4 2
1905-09-16 @ Cliftonville W 1-058.1 1523 1496 19.31% 25.48% 55.21%-0.46 +32.4 4
1905-09-16 Shelbourne W 3-259.7 1506 1540 54.45% 25.50% 20.05%+0.42 +12.8 2
1905-09-16 @ Glentoran L 2-359.7 1540 1506 20.05% 25.50% 54.45%-0.42 -12.8 4
1905-09-16 Belfast Celtic D 0-061.4 1534 1528 58.22% 25.38% 16.40%+0.63 -6.4 3
1905-09-16 @ Linfield D 0-061.4 1528 1534 16.40% 25.38% 58.22%-0.63 +6.4 3
1905-09-23 Cliftonville D 1-164.3 1534 1464 63.13% 25.08% 11.79%+0.97 -7.2 4
1905-09-23 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-164.3 1464 1534 11.79% 25.08% 63.13%-0.97 +7.2 3
1905-09-23 Glentoran W 3-148.9 1432 1518 48.70% 25.59% 25.71%+0.15 +28.5 5
1905-09-23 @ Derry Celtic L 1-348.9 1518 1432 25.71% 25.59% 48.70%-0.15 -28.5 2
1905-09-23 Linfield D 2-273.4 1555 1527 60.05% 25.29% 14.66%+0.75 -4.7 5
1905-09-23 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-273.4 1527 1555 14.66% 25.29% 60.05%-0.75 +4.7 4
1905-09-23 Bohemian W 2-038.9 1527 1442 64.08% 25.00% 10.92%+1.04 +16.1 6
1905-09-23 @ Shelbourne L 0-238.9 1442 1527 10.92% 25.00% 64.08%-1.04 -16.1 3
1905-10-07 Belfast Celtic L 1-259.3 1426 1527 47.03% 25.60% 27.37%+0.08 -26.4 3
1905-10-07 @ Bohemian W 2-159.3 1527 1426 27.37% 25.60% 47.03%-0.08 +26.4 6
1905-10-07 Shelbourne W 1-048.5 1471 1543 50.41% 25.58% 24.01%+0.23 +16.6 5
1905-10-07 @ Cliftonville L 0-148.5 1543 1471 24.01% 25.58% 50.41%-0.23 -16.6 6
1905-10-07 Linfield W 3-149.9 1460 1532 50.44% 25.58% 23.98%+0.23 +27.0 7
1905-10-07 @ Derry Celtic L 1-349.9 1532 1460 23.98% 25.58% 50.44%-0.23 -27.0 4
1905-10-07 Glentoran W 1-045.9 1551 1490 62.50% 25.13% 12.37%+0.92 +9.5 7
1905-10-07 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-145.9 1490 1551 12.37% 25.13% 62.50%-0.92 -9.5 2
1905-10-21 Derry Celtic W 1-045.8 1553 1487 62.84% 25.11% 12.05%+0.94 +9.3 8
1905-10-21 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-145.8 1487 1553 12.05% 25.11% 62.84%-0.94 -9.3 7
1905-10-21 Cliftonville D 1-163.1 1480 1488 57.02% 25.43% 17.55%+0.56 -5.3 3
1905-10-21 @ Glentoran D 1-163.1 1488 1480 17.55% 25.43% 57.02%-0.56 +5.3 6
1905-10-21 Bohemian W 3-034.1 1505 1400 65.32% 24.87% 9.80%+1.15 +21.2 6
1905-10-21 @ Linfield L 0-334.1 1400 1505 9.80% 24.87% 65.32%-1.15 -21.2 3
1905-10-21 Lisburn Distillery W 2-046.0 1527 1560 54.51% 25.50% 19.99%+0.43 +27.0 8
1905-10-21 @ Shelbourne L 0-246.0 1560 1527 19.99% 25.50% 54.51%-0.43 -27.0 7
1905-10-28 Lisburn Distillery L 0-162.2 1562 1533 60.14% 25.29% 14.58%+0.75 -35.3 8
1905-10-28 @ Belfast Celtic W 1-062.2 1533 1562 14.58% 25.29% 60.14%-0.75 +35.3 9
1905-10-28 Glentoran W 3-255.0 1379 1475 47.53% 25.60% 26.87%+0.10 +16.2 5
1905-10-28 @ Bohemian L 2-355.0 1475 1379 26.87% 25.60% 47.53%-0.10 -16.2 3
1905-10-28 Linfield D 2-271.1 1493 1526 54.57% 25.50% 19.93%+0.43 -3.4 7
1905-10-28 @ Cliftonville D 2-271.1 1526 1493 19.93% 25.50% 54.57%-0.43 +3.4 7
1905-10-28 Shelbourne W 3-043.3 1478 1554 50.00% 25.58% 24.42%+0.21 +46.0 9
1905-10-28 @ Derry Celtic L 0-343.3 1554 1478 24.42% 25.58% 50.00%-0.21 -46.0 8
1905-11-11 Linfield L 1-261.6 1459 1530 50.55% 25.57% 23.88%+0.23 -28.1 3
1905-11-11 @ Glentoran W 2-161.6 1530 1459 23.88% 25.57% 50.55%-0.23 +28.1 9
1905-11-11 Derry Celtic W 5-145.5 1569 1524 61.33% 25.22% 13.46%+0.83 +30.6 11
1905-11-11 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-545.5 1524 1569 13.46% 25.22% 61.33%-0.83 -30.6 9
1905-11-11 Belfast Celtic W 3-149.8 1508 1527 55.89% 25.46% 18.65%+0.50 +22.1 10
1905-11-11 @ Shelbourne L 1-349.8 1527 1508 18.65% 25.46% 55.89%-0.50 -22.1 8
1905-11-18 Lisburn Distillery L 1-256.5 1395 1599 32.95% 25.49% 41.56%-0.46 -19.9 5
1905-11-18 @ Bohemian W 2-156.5 1599 1395 41.56% 25.49% 32.95%+0.46 +19.9 13
1905-11-18 Cliftonville D 0-058.5 1493 1490 58.02% 25.39% 16.60%+0.62 -6.3 10
1905-11-18 @ Derry Celtic D 0-058.5 1490 1493 16.60% 25.39% 58.02%-0.62 +6.3 8
1905-11-25 Glentoran W 3-035.7 1505 1431 63.41% 25.06% 11.53%+0.99 +24.5 10
1905-11-25 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-335.7 1431 1505 11.53% 25.06% 63.41%-0.99 -24.5 3
1905-11-25 Shelbourne W 1-048.3 1558 1530 60.05% 25.29% 14.66%+0.75 +11.0 11
1905-11-25 @ Linfield L 0-148.3 1530 1558 14.66% 25.29% 60.05%-0.75 -11.0 10
1905-12-09 Linfield L 1-362.7 1530 1569 53.95% 25.52% 20.53%+0.40 -51.8 10
1905-12-09 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-162.7 1569 1530 20.53% 25.52% 53.95%-0.40 +51.8 13
1905-12-09 Bohemian L 0-449.4 1487 1375 65.73% 24.83% 9.44%+1.18 -138.9 10
1905-12-09 @ Derry Celtic W 4-049.4 1375 1487 9.44% 24.83% 65.73%-1.18 +138.9 7
1905-12-09 Cliftonville D 0-063.4 1619 1496 66.34% 24.75% 8.91%+1.24 -9.3 14
1905-12-09 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-063.4 1496 1619 8.91% 24.75% 66.34%-1.24 +9.3 9
1905-12-09 Glentoran D 1-161.7 1519 1406 65.74% 24.83% 9.43%+1.19 -8.1 11
1905-12-09 @ Shelbourne D 1-161.7 1406 1519 9.43% 24.83% 65.74%-1.19 +8.1 4
1905-12-25 Belfast Celtic W 1-044.5 1505 1478 60.00% 25.29% 14.71%+0.74 +11.1 11
1905-12-25 @ Cliftonville L 0-144.5 1478 1505 14.71% 25.29% 60.00%-0.74 -11.1 10
1905-12-25 Derry Celtic W 1-037.2 1414 1348 62.86% 25.11% 12.03%+0.94 +9.3 6
1905-12-25 @ Glentoran L 0-137.2 1348 1414 12.03% 25.11% 62.86%-0.94 -9.3 10
1905-12-25 Lisburn Distillery W 2-048.6 1620 1610 58.62% 25.36% 16.02%+0.66 +22.4 15
1905-12-25 @ Linfield L 0-248.6 1610 1620 16.02% 25.36% 58.62%-0.66 -22.5 14
1905-12-26 Shelbourne W 2-042.7 1514 1510 57.98% 25.39% 16.63%+0.62 +23.2 9
1905-12-26 @ Bohemian L 0-242.7 1510 1514 16.63% 25.39% 57.98%-0.62 -23.2 11
1906-01-13 Bohemian W 2-154.2 1467 1537 50.61% 25.57% 23.82%+0.24 +15.5 12
1906-01-13 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-254.2 1537 1467 23.82% 25.57% 50.61%-0.24 -15.5 9
1906-01-13 Lisburn Distillery L 1-258.9 1424 1587 38.63% 25.57% 35.80%-0.25 -22.4 6
1906-01-13 @ Glentoran W 2-158.9 1587 1424 35.80% 25.57% 38.63%+0.25 +22.5 16
1906-01-13 Derry Celtic W 3-034.4 1643 1339 73.51% 23.09% 3.40%+2.18 +7.6 17
1906-01-13 @ Linfield L 0-334.4 1339 1643 3.40% 23.09% 73.51%-2.18 -7.6 10
1906-01-13 Cliftonville L 0-253.5 1487 1516 54.98% 25.49% 19.53%+0.45 -60.9 11
1906-01-13 @ Shelbourne W 2-053.5 1516 1487 19.53% 25.49% 54.98%-0.45 +60.9 13
1906-02-10 Linfield W 1-055.8 1521 1651 43.37% 25.60% 31.03%-0.07 +20.2 11
1906-02-10 @ Bohemian L 0-155.8 1651 1521 31.03% 25.60% 43.37%+0.07 -20.2 17
1906-02-10 Glentoran W 5-139.1 1577 1401 68.93% 24.35% 6.72%+1.52 +16.3 15
1906-02-10 @ Cliftonville L 1-539.1 1401 1577 6.72% 24.35% 68.93%-1.52 -16.3 6
1906-02-10 Belfast Celtic L 1-349.1 1331 1482 40.41% 25.59% 34.00%-0.18 -40.3 10
1906-02-10 @ Derry Celtic W 3-149.1 1482 1331 34.00% 25.59% 40.41%+0.18 +40.3 14
1906-02-10 Shelbourne W 1-043.7 1610 1426 69.25% 24.28% 6.46%+1.55 +5.3 18
1906-02-10 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-143.7 1426 1610 6.46% 24.28% 69.25%-1.55 -5.3 11
1906-03-03 Cliftonville L 0-165.8 1630 1593 60.74% 25.25% 14.00%+0.79 -35.7 17
1906-03-03 @ Linfield W 1-065.8 1593 1630 14.00% 25.25% 60.74%-0.79 +35.7 17
1906-03-31 Derry Celtic D 0-051.5 1421 1291 66.72% 24.70% 8.58%+1.28 -9.4 12
1906-03-31 @ Shelbourne D 0-051.5 1291 1421 8.58% 24.70% 66.72%-1.28 +9.4 11
1906-04-04 Belfast Celtic D 2-275.3 1615 1523 64.57% 24.95% 10.47%+1.08 -5.8 19
1906-04-04 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-275.3 1523 1615 10.47% 24.95% 64.57%-1.08 +5.8 15
1906-04-16 Bohemian D 0-056.4 1385 1542 39.61% 25.58% 34.81%-0.21 -0.6 7
1906-04-16 @ Glentoran D 0-056.4 1542 1385 34.81% 25.58% 39.61%+0.21 +0.6 12
1906-05-09 Bohemian W 3-043.5 1629 1542 64.22% 24.99% 10.80%+1.05 +23.1 19
1906-05-09 @ Cliftonville L 0-343.5 1542 1629 10.80% 24.99% 64.22%-1.05 -23.1 12

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1906-05-26 Lisburn Distillery D 0-066.7 1652 1609 43.16% 25.58% 31.26%+0.22 -1.6 0-0-1
1906-05-26 @ Cliftonville D 0-066.7 1609 1652 31.26% 25.58% 43.16%-0.22 +1.6 0-0-1
1906-05-30 Lisburn Distillery D 2-277.9 1651 1611 42.72% 25.58% 31.70%+0.21 -1.0 0-0-2
1906-05-30 @ Cliftonville D 2-277.9 1611 1651 31.70% 25.58% 42.72%-0.21 +1.0 0-0-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1905-12-09 9.44% Bohemian 1375 4 @ Derry Celtic 1487 0
2 1905-09-09 13.36% Belfast Celtic 1494 2 @ Glentoran 1540 1
3 1905-09-02 13.63% Shelbourne 1484 3 @ Belfast Celtic 1526 2
4 1906-03-03 14.00% Cliftonville 1593 1 @ Linfield 1630 0
5 1905-10-28 14.58% Lisburn Distillery 1533 1 @ Belfast Celtic 1562 0
6 1905-09-16 19.31% Lisburn Distillery 1523 1 @ Cliftonville 1496 0
7 1906-01-13 19.53% Cliftonville 1516 2 @ Shelbourne 1487 0
8 1905-12-09 20.53% Linfield 1569 3 @ Belfast Celtic 1530 1
9 1905-11-11 23.88% Linfield 1530 2 @ Glentoran 1459 1
10 1905-10-07 27.37% Belfast Celtic 1527 2 @ Bohemian 1426 1
11 1906-02-10 34.00% Belfast Celtic 1482 3 @ Derry Celtic 1331 1
12 1906-01-13 35.80% Lisburn Distillery 1587 2 @ Glentoran 1424 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1905-12-09 138.88 Bohemian 4 1375 9.44% @ Derry Celtic 0 1487 65.73% 24.83%
2 1906-01-13 60.86 Cliftonville 2 1516 19.53% @ Shelbourne 0 1487 54.98% 25.49%
3 1905-12-09 51.76 Linfield 3 1569 20.53% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1530 53.95% 25.52%
4 1905-10-28 45.97 @ Derry Celtic 3 1478 50.00% Shelbourne 0 1554 24.42% 25.58%
5 1906-02-10 40.27 Belfast Celtic 3 1482 34.00% @ Derry Celtic 1 1331 40.41% 25.59%
6 1906-03-03 35.70 Cliftonville 1 1593 14.00% @ Linfield 0 1630 60.74% 25.25%
7 1905-10-28 35.32 Lisburn Distillery 1 1533 14.58% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1562 60.14% 25.29%
8 1905-09-09 34.05 Belfast Celtic 2 1494 13.36% @ Glentoran 1 1540 61.43% 25.21%
9 1905-09-16 32.41 Lisburn Distillery 1 1523 19.31% @ Cliftonville 0 1496 55.21% 25.48%
10 1905-09-02 32.14 Shelbourne 3 1484 13.63% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1526 61.14% 25.23%
11 1905-09-02 31.32 @ Bohemian 2 1434 50.32% Cliftonville 0 1507 24.10% 25.58%
12 1905-11-11 30.59 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1569 61.33% Derry Celtic 1 1524 13.46% 25.22%
13 1905-09-23 28.54 @ Derry Celtic 3 1432 48.70% Glentoran 1 1518 25.71% 25.59%
14 1905-11-11 28.12 Linfield 2 1530 23.88% @ Glentoran 1 1459 50.55% 25.57%
15 1905-10-07 27.02 @ Derry Celtic 3 1460 50.44% Linfield 1 1532 23.98% 25.58%
16 1905-10-21 26.97 @ Shelbourne 2 1527 54.51% Lisburn Distillery 0 1560 19.99% 25.50%
17 1905-10-07 26.36 Belfast Celtic 2 1527 27.37% @ Bohemian 1 1426 47.03% 25.60%
18 1905-11-25 24.54 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1505 63.41% Glentoran 0 1431 11.53% 25.06%
19 1905-09-09 24.13 @ Shelbourne 3 1516 53.65% Linfield 1 1558 20.83% 25.52%
20 1905-12-26 23.16 @ Bohemian 2 1514 57.98% Shelbourne 0 1510 16.63% 25.39%
21 1906-05-09 23.14 @ Cliftonville 3 1629 64.22% Bohemian 0 1542 10.80% 24.99%
22 1905-12-25 22.45 @ Linfield 2 1620 58.62% Lisburn Distillery 0 1610 16.02% 25.36%
23 1906-01-13 22.45 Lisburn Distillery 2 1587 35.80% @ Glentoran 1 1424 38.63% 25.57%
24 1905-11-11 22.06 @ Shelbourne 3 1508 55.89% Belfast Celtic 1 1527 18.65% 25.46%
25 1905-10-21 21.23 @ Linfield 3 1505 65.32% Bohemian 0 1400 9.80% 24.87%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1906-05-30 * 77.9 @ Cliftonville 2 1651 42.72% Lisburn Distillery 2 1611 31.70% 25.58%
2 1906-04-04 75.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1615 64.57% Belfast Celtic 2 1523 10.47% 24.95%
3 1905-09-23 73.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1555 60.05% Linfield 2 1527 14.66% 25.29%
4 1905-10-28 71.1 @ Cliftonville 2 1493 54.57% Linfield 2 1526 19.93% 25.50%
5 1905-09-02 70.6 Shelbourne 3 1484 13.63% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1526 61.14% 25.23%
6 1906-05-26 * 66.7 @ Cliftonville 0 1652 43.16% Lisburn Distillery 0 1609 31.26% 25.58%
7 1905-09-09 66.5 Belfast Celtic 2 1494 13.36% @ Glentoran 1 1540 61.43% 25.21%
8 1906-03-03 65.8 Cliftonville 1 1593 14.00% @ Linfield 0 1630 60.74% 25.25%
9 1905-09-23 64.3 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1534 63.13% Cliftonville 1 1464 11.79% 25.08%
10 1905-12-09 63.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1619 66.34% Cliftonville 0 1496 8.91% 24.75%
11 1905-10-21 63.1 @ Glentoran 1 1480 57.02% Cliftonville 1 1488 17.55% 25.43%
12 1905-12-09 62.7 Linfield 3 1569 20.53% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1530 53.95% 25.52%
13 1905-10-28 62.2 Lisburn Distillery 1 1533 14.58% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1562 60.14% 25.29%
14 1905-12-09 61.7 @ Shelbourne 1 1519 65.74% Glentoran 1 1406 9.43% 24.83%
15 1905-11-11 61.6 Linfield 2 1530 23.88% @ Glentoran 1 1459 50.55% 25.57%
16 1905-09-16 61.4 @ Linfield 0 1534 58.22% Belfast Celtic 0 1528 16.40% 25.38%
17 1905-09-16 59.9 @ Bohemian 1 1448 59.63% Derry Celtic 1 1426 15.05% 25.31%
18 1905-09-16 59.7 @ Glentoran 3 1506 54.45% Shelbourne 2 1540 20.05% 25.50%
19 1905-10-07 59.3 Belfast Celtic 2 1527 27.37% @ Bohemian 1 1426 47.03% 25.60%
20 1906-01-13 58.9 Lisburn Distillery 2 1587 35.80% @ Glentoran 1 1424 38.63% 25.57%
21 1905-11-18 58.5 @ Derry Celtic 0 1493 58.02% Cliftonville 0 1490 16.60% 25.39%
22 1905-09-16 58.1 Lisburn Distillery 1 1523 19.31% @ Cliftonville 0 1496 55.21% 25.48%
23 1905-11-18 56.5 Lisburn Distillery 2 1599 41.56% @ Bohemian 1 1395 32.95% 25.49%
24 1906-04-16 56.4 @ Glentoran 0 1385 39.61% Bohemian 0 1542 34.81% 25.58%
25 1906-02-10 55.8 @ Bohemian 1 1521 43.37% Linfield 0 1651 31.03% 25.60%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1905-10-21 34.1 @ Linfield 3 1505 65.32% Bohemian 0 1400 9.80% 24.87%
2 1906-01-13 34.4 @ Linfield 3 1643 73.51% Derry Celtic 0 1339 3.40% 23.09%
3 1905-11-25 35.7 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1505 63.41% Glentoran 0 1431 11.53% 25.06%
4 1905-12-25 37.2 @ Glentoran 1 1414 62.86% Derry Celtic 0 1348 12.03% 25.11%
5 1905-09-09 38.3 @ Cliftonville 2 1476 60.15% Derry Celtic 0 1446 14.56% 25.29%
6 1905-09-23 38.9 @ Shelbourne 2 1527 64.08% Bohemian 0 1442 10.92% 25.00%
7 1906-02-10 39.1 @ Cliftonville 5 1577 68.93% Glentoran 1 1401 6.72% 24.35%
8 1905-09-02 42.0 @ Bohemian 2 1434 50.32% Cliftonville 0 1507 24.10% 25.58%
9 1905-12-26 42.7 @ Bohemian 2 1514 57.98% Shelbourne 0 1510 16.63% 25.39%
10 1905-10-28 43.3 @ Derry Celtic 3 1478 50.00% Shelbourne 0 1554 24.42% 25.58%
11 1906-05-09 43.5 @ Cliftonville 3 1629 64.22% Bohemian 0 1542 10.80% 24.99%
12 1906-02-10 43.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1610 69.25% Shelbourne 0 1426 6.46% 24.28%
13 1905-12-25 44.5 @ Cliftonville 1 1505 60.00% Belfast Celtic 0 1478 14.71% 25.29%
14 1905-11-11 45.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1569 61.33% Derry Celtic 1 1524 13.46% 25.22%
15 1905-10-21 45.8 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1553 62.84% Derry Celtic 0 1487 12.05% 25.11%
16 1905-10-07 45.9 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1551 62.50% Glentoran 0 1490 12.37% 25.13%
17 1905-09-09 46.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1506 61.00% Bohemian 1 1466 13.76% 25.24%
18 1905-10-21 46.0 @ Shelbourne 2 1527 54.51% Lisburn Distillery 0 1560 19.99% 25.50%
19 1905-09-02 47.1 @ Derry Celtic 1 1428 47.62% Lisburn Distillery 0 1524 26.78% 25.60%
20 1905-11-25 48.3 @ Linfield 1 1558 60.05% Shelbourne 0 1530 14.66% 25.29%
21 1905-10-07 48.5 @ Cliftonville 1 1471 50.41% Shelbourne 0 1543 24.01% 25.58%
22 1905-12-25 48.6 @ Linfield 2 1620 58.62% Lisburn Distillery 0 1610 16.02% 25.36%
23 1905-09-23 48.9 @ Derry Celtic 3 1432 48.70% Glentoran 1 1518 25.71% 25.59%
24 1906-02-10 49.1 Belfast Celtic 3 1482 34.00% @ Derry Celtic 1 1331 40.41% 25.59%
25 1905-12-09 49.4 Bohemian 4 1375 9.44% @ Derry Celtic 0 1487 65.73% 24.83%