Home / Leagues / Northern Ireland / Irish League / 1907-08
‹ ›

1907-08 Irish League Season

56 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Linfield

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Glentoran

4.89 points above expected

17 points · 12.11 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bohemian

5.81 points below expected

6 points · 11.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 14 10 2 2 22 31 15 +16 19.55 +2.45
2 Cliftonville 14 6 5 3 17 22 16 +6 15.75 +1.25
3 Glentoran 14 7 3 4 17 27 23 +4 12.11 +4.89
4 Shelbourne 14 6 2 6 14 22 17 +5 14.80 -0.80
5 Lisburn Distillery 14 6 2 6 14 21 21 0 15.88 -1.88
6 Belfast Celtic 14 6 1 7 13 21 20 +1 13.17 -0.17
7 Derry Celtic 14 4 1 9 9 16 30 -14 8.93 +0.07
8 Bohemian 14 2 2 10 6 13 31 -18 11.81 -5.81

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glentoran 17 12.11 +4.89
2 Linfield 22 19.55 +2.45
3 Cliftonville 17 15.75 +1.25
4 Derry Celtic 9 8.93 +0.07
5 Belfast Celtic 13 13.17 -0.17

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bohemian 6 11.81 -5.81
2 Lisburn Distillery 14 15.88 -1.88
3 Shelbourne 14 14.80 -0.80
4 Belfast Celtic 13 13.17 -0.17
5 Derry Celtic 9 8.93 +0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 8 Oct 26 – Jan 11 1 in 36
2 Glentoran 3 Sep 7 – Sep 21 1 in 19
3 Derry Celtic 2 Nov 9 – Nov 23 1 in 14
4 Belfast Celtic 2 Sep 14 – Sep 28 1 in 8
5 Shelbourne 2 Sep 7 – Sep 14 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 7 Dec 21 – Mar 17 1 in 97
2 Belfast Celtic 3 Nov 2 – Nov 23 1 in 21
3 Glentoran 2 Dec 21 – Dec 25 1 in 9
4 Lisburn Distillery 2 Sep 7 – Sep 14 1 in 6
5 Derry Celtic 4 Sep 21 – Oct 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 4 Dec 28 – Mar 7 1 in 37
2 Linfield 10 Sep 28 – Jan 11 1 in 10
3 Cliftonville 4 Sep 21 – Oct 26 1 in 9
4 Belfast Celtic 3 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 7
5 Lisburn Distillery 4 Sep 21 – Oct 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 5 Sep 28 – Nov 30 1 in 24
2 Bohemian 7 Dec 21 – Mar 17 1 in 14
3 Glentoran 5 Oct 26 – Dec 25 1 in 11
4 Belfast Celtic 4 Oct 26 – Nov 23 1 in 10
5 Linfield 2 Jan 18 – Feb 8 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1673 22 +4 7 7.7 -0.7
Glentoran 1462 17 +15 7 3.9 +3.1
Cliftonville 1556 17 +19 7 4.9 +2.1
Lisburn Distillery 1524 14 +0 6 6.1 -0.1
Shelbourne 1542 14 +1 5 6.2 -1.2
Belfast Celtic 1486 13 +34 6 4.7 +1.3
Derry Celtic 1342 9 +2 4 2.8 +1.2
Bohemian 1414 6 -8 2 3.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
2-0-0
3.19
0-1-1
2.39
0-0-2
3.71
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
1.45
2-0-0
2.12
0-0-2
2.45
Bohemian
0-0-2
2.47
 —
0-0-2
2.55
1-1-0
3.83
0-0-2
2.98
0-0-2
1.33
1-0-1
1.84
0-1-1
2.22
Cliftonville
1-1-0
3.28
2-0-0
3.12
 —
2-0-0
4.19
0-1-1
3.49
0-1-1
1.94
1-1-0
2.83
0-1-1
2.82
Derry Celtic
2-0-0
1.95
0-1-1
1.84
0-0-2
1.49
 —
1-0-1
1.98
0-0-2
0.98
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
1.44
Glentoran
0-0-2
2.81
2-0-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.18
1-0-1
3.69
 —
1-1-0
1.28
0-1-1
2.17
2-0-0
2.04
Linfield
2-0-0
4.23
2-0-0
4.34
1-1-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.71
0-1-1
4.40
 —
2-0-0
3.69
1-0-1
3.64
Lisburn Distillery
0-0-2
3.55
1-0-1
3.83
0-1-1
2.83
2-0-0
4.20
1-1-0
3.50
0-0-2
1.98
 —
2-0-0
2.52
Shelbourne
2-0-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.44
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
4.23
0-0-2
3.63
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
3.15
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +8.5
Allowed 0.73 -7.0
Differential 0.94 +4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.79%7.14%5.36%6.25%0.89%0.89%22.32%
17.14%10.71%8.04%6.25%0.89%—33.04%
25.36%8.04%3.57%2.68%1.79%0.89%22.32%
36.25%6.25%2.68%—0.89%—16.07%
40.89%0.89%1.79%0.89%——4.46%
5+0.89%—0.89%———1.79%
Total22.32%33.04%22.32%16.07%4.46%1.79%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 1.54 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 2.02
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%—21.43%——35.71%
114.29%—14.29%7.14%——35.71%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+7.14%—7.14%———14.29%
Total35.71%14.29%21.43%28.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.43 +0.07
SD 2.07 1.28 2.76
CV 1.38 0.90 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%—14.29%—7.14%42.86%
1—14.29%7.14%14.29%——35.71%
2————7.14%—7.14%
37.14%7.14%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%42.86%7.14%28.57%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 2.21 -1.29
SD 1.07 1.81 2.37
CV 1.15 0.82 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—14.29%———21.43%
1—21.43%—7.14%——28.57%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
314.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%35.71%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.14 +0.43
SD 1.16 0.95 1.70
CV 0.74 0.83 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%14.29%7.14%—28.57%
114.29%7.14%14.29%———35.71%
2—14.29%—7.14%7.14%—28.57%
3————7.14%—7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%21.43%21.43%21.43%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.14 -1.00
SD 0.95 1.41 1.66
CV 0.83 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
1—14.29%14.29%7.14%——35.71%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
3—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total7.14%35.71%42.86%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.93 1.64 +0.29
SD 1.14 0.84 1.38
CV 0.59 0.51 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——7.14%———7.14%
121.43%7.14%————28.57%
2—7.14%7.14%7.14%——21.43%
37.14%14.29%————21.43%
47.14%—14.29%———21.43%
5+———————
Total35.71%28.57%28.57%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.21 1.07 +1.14
SD 1.31 1.00 1.56
CV 0.59 0.93 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%————14.29%
17.14%14.29%7.14%14.29%——42.86%
27.14%14.29%———7.14%28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%57.14%7.14%14.29%—7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.50 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.34 1.75
CV 0.73 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
1—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
214.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
321.43%—————21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total35.71%28.57%21.43%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.57 1.21 +0.36
SD 1.09 1.25 1.98
CV 0.69 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1673 22 19.55 +2.45 83.0% 11 14 17 19 22 24 26
Cliftonville 1561 17 15.75 +1.25 71.0% 9 10 14 16 18 21 23
Shelbourne 1542 14 14.80 -0.80 40.0% 7 9 12 15 17 20 24
Lisburn Distillery 1524 14 15.88 -1.88 35.0% 9 11 13 16 18 21 23
Belfast Celtic 1486 13 13.17 -0.17 48.0% 4 6 11 14 16 19 23
Glentoran 1458 17 12.11 +4.89 96.0% 4 6 9 12 15 17 19
Bohemian 1414 6 11.81 -5.81 4.0% 4 7 10 12 14 17 19
Derry Celtic 1342 9 8.93 +0.07 56.0% 0 3 7 9 11 14 16

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.93%
Slight Edge
46.43%16.07%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 31.10 Elo pts.
192 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.41 goals
Neutral
-2+0.16+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Linfield, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.69 * Some Luck: 2.69 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.38 * Wild Swing: 5.38 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.12 * Close: 1.12 to 1.68 * Off: 1.68 to 2.24 * Way Off: 2.24 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.95 points
Some Luck
03.368
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Close
01.403
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.00%
Glentoran
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
4.00%
Bohemian
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 99.72
1.45
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.572
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.80
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Some Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.22 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.22 to 0.33 * Above Noise: 0.33 to 0.43 * Well Above Noise: 0.43 and up.
Probability calibration
0.84
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.107
Well Within Noise
00.2170.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Cliftonville 3
Glentoran 2

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Linfield63.00%17.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%—
Cliftonville13.00%27.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%6.00%8.00%—
Glentoran4.00%7.00%9.00%14.00%14.00%21.00%16.00%15.00%
Shelbourne6.00%17.00%21.00%17.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%6.00%
Lisburn Distillery10.00%19.00%19.00%22.00%12.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%
Belfast Celtic2.00%10.00%18.00%17.00%17.00%13.00%11.00%12.00%
Derry Celtic——1.00%3.00%9.00%17.00%22.00%48.00%
Bohemian2.00%3.00%7.00%7.00%19.00%19.00%26.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1907-09-07 Shelbourne L 0-343.9 1469 1529 39.72% 16.74% 43.54%-0.15 -18.9 0
1907-09-07 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-043.9 1529 1469 43.54% 16.74% 39.72%+0.15 +18.9 2
1907-09-07 Glentoran L 1-355.3 1508 1425 58.49% 16.57% 24.94%+0.60 -15.9 0
1907-09-07 @ Bohemian W 3-155.3 1425 1508 24.94% 16.57% 58.49%-0.60 +15.9 2
1907-09-07 Derry Celtic W 3-249.5 1531 1354 67.70% 16.16% 16.14%+1.09 +2.8 2
1907-09-07 @ Cliftonville L 2-349.5 1354 1531 16.14% 16.16% 67.70%-1.09 -2.8 0
1907-09-07 Lisburn Distillery W 3-152.7 1649 1535 61.80% 16.46% 21.74%+0.76 +6.7 2
1907-09-07 @ Linfield L 1-352.7 1535 1649 21.74% 16.46% 61.80%-0.76 -6.7 0
1907-09-14 Bohemian D 1-160.0 1351 1492 29.06% 16.58% 54.36%-0.57 +1.0 1
1907-09-14 @ Derry Celtic D 1-160.0 1492 1351 54.36% 16.58% 29.06%+0.57 -1.0 1
1907-09-14 Cliftonville W 2-047.8 1441 1534 35.15% 16.70% 48.15%-0.32 +15.3 4
1907-09-14 @ Glentoran L 0-247.8 1534 1441 48.15% 16.70% 35.15%+0.32 -15.3 2
1907-09-14 Belfast Celtic L 0-154.4 1529 1450 57.96% 16.58% 25.46%+0.57 -9.6 0
1907-09-14 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-054.4 1450 1529 25.46% 16.58% 57.96%-0.57 +9.6 2
1907-09-14 Linfield W 2-055.7 1548 1656 33.25% 16.67% 50.08%-0.40 +15.8 4
1907-09-14 @ Shelbourne L 0-255.7 1656 1548 50.08% 16.67% 33.25%+0.40 -15.8 2
1907-09-21 Cliftonville L 0-345.7 1491 1518 44.34% 16.75% 38.91%+0.02 -20.7 1
1907-09-21 @ Bohemian W 3-045.7 1518 1491 38.91% 16.75% 44.34%-0.02 +20.7 4
1907-09-21 Derry Celtic W 4-352.5 1456 1352 60.78% 16.50% 22.72%+0.71 +3.7 6
1907-09-21 @ Glentoran L 3-452.5 1352 1456 22.72% 16.50% 60.78%-0.71 -3.7 1
1907-09-21 Shelbourne W 4-153.0 1519 1564 41.87% 16.75% 41.38%-0.07 +16.5 2
1907-09-21 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-453.0 1564 1519 41.38% 16.75% 41.87%+0.07 -16.5 4
1907-09-28 Glentoran W 2-150.8 1460 1460 48.20% 16.73% 35.07%+0.16 +5.8 4
1907-09-28 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-250.8 1460 1460 35.07% 16.73% 48.20%-0.16 -5.8 6
1907-09-28 Lisburn Distillery D 1-167.9 1539 1535 48.67% 16.73% 34.60%+0.18 -0.5 5
1907-09-28 @ Cliftonville D 1-167.9 1535 1539 34.60% 16.73% 48.67%-0.18 +0.5 3
1907-09-28 Linfield L 2-448.4 1348 1640 14.65% 15.84% 69.51%-1.36 -4.1 1
1907-09-28 @ Derry Celtic W 4-248.4 1640 1348 69.51% 15.84% 14.65%+1.36 +4.1 4
1907-09-28 Bohemian D 1-165.9 1547 1470 57.84% 16.59% 25.57%+0.57 -1.3 5
1907-09-28 @ Shelbourne D 1-165.9 1470 1547 25.57% 16.59% 57.84%-0.57 +1.3 2
1907-10-19 Linfield D 1-171.2 1539 1644 33.56% 16.67% 49.77%-0.39 +0.6 6
1907-10-19 @ Cliftonville D 1-171.2 1644 1539 49.77% 16.67% 33.56%+0.39 -0.6 5
1907-10-19 Lisburn Distillery L 1-245.9 1344 1536 23.34% 16.40% 60.26%-0.84 -4.1 1
1907-10-19 @ Derry Celtic W 2-145.9 1536 1344 60.26% 16.40% 23.34%+0.84 +4.1 5
1907-10-19 Shelbourne W 3-263.3 1454 1546 35.26% 16.70% 48.05%-0.32 +7.2 8
1907-10-19 @ Glentoran L 2-363.3 1546 1454 48.05% 16.70% 35.26%+0.32 -7.2 5
1907-10-26 Cliftonville D 0-061.2 1466 1539 37.84% 16.72% 45.43%-0.22 +0.3 5
1907-10-26 @ Belfast Celtic D 0-061.2 1539 1466 45.43% 16.72% 37.84%+0.22 -0.3 7
1907-10-26 Bohemian W 1-046.7 1643 1472 67.24% 16.19% 16.57%+1.06 +3.2 7
1907-10-26 @ Linfield L 0-146.7 1472 1643 16.57% 16.19% 67.24%-1.06 -3.2 2
1907-10-26 Glentoran W 3-147.9 1540 1461 58.04% 16.58% 25.38%+0.57 +7.6 7
1907-10-26 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-347.9 1461 1540 25.38% 16.58% 58.04%-0.57 -7.6 8
1907-10-26 Derry Celtic W 3-031.9 1539 1340 69.43% 16.04% 14.53%+1.20 +7.7 7
1907-10-26 @ Shelbourne L 0-331.9 1340 1539 14.53% 16.04% 69.43%-1.20 -7.7 1
1907-11-02 Belfast Celtic W 3-040.6 1646 1466 67.95% 16.14% 15.90%+1.10 +8.4 9
1907-11-02 @ Linfield L 0-340.6 1466 1646 15.90% 16.14% 67.95%-1.10 -8.4 5
1907-11-09 Derry Celtic L 1-255.5 1458 1332 62.97% 16.41% 20.61%+0.82 -9.8 5
1907-11-09 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-155.5 1332 1458 20.61% 16.41% 62.97%-0.82 +9.8 3
1907-11-09 Shelbourne L 0-251.5 1539 1547 47.11% 16.74% 36.15%+0.12 -15.0 7
1907-11-09 @ Cliftonville W 2-051.5 1547 1539 36.15% 16.74% 47.11%-0.12 +15.0 9
1907-11-09 Linfield L 0-154.2 1548 1655 33.31% 16.67% 50.03%-0.40 -5.9 7
1907-11-09 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-054.2 1655 1548 50.03% 16.67% 33.31%+0.40 +5.9 11
1907-11-23 Lisburn Distillery D 1-165.0 1453 1542 35.80% 16.70% 47.49%-0.30 +0.4 9
1907-11-23 @ Glentoran D 1-165.0 1542 1453 47.49% 16.70% 35.80%+0.30 -0.4 8
1907-11-23 Belfast Celtic W 1-046.2 1342 1448 33.50% 16.67% 49.83%-0.39 +8.4 5
1907-11-23 @ Derry Celtic L 0-146.2 1448 1342 49.83% 16.67% 33.50%+0.39 -8.4 5
1907-11-30 Lisburn Distillery W 5-254.7 1440 1541 34.01% 16.68% 49.31%-0.37 +16.6 7
1907-11-30 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-554.7 1541 1440 49.31% 16.68% 34.01%+0.37 -16.6 8
1907-11-30 Derry Celtic W 3-032.4 1468 1351 62.21% 16.45% 21.35%+0.78 +11.0 4
1907-11-30 @ Bohemian L 0-332.4 1351 1468 21.35% 16.45% 62.21%-0.78 -11.0 5
1907-11-30 Glentoran D 1-164.4 1524 1454 57.02% 16.61% 26.38%+0.53 -1.2 8
1907-11-30 @ Cliftonville D 1-164.4 1454 1524 26.38% 16.61% 57.02%-0.53 +1.2 10
1907-11-30 Shelbourne W 1-051.5 1661 1562 60.26% 16.52% 23.22%+0.68 +4.3 13
1907-11-30 @ Linfield L 0-151.5 1562 1661 23.22% 16.52% 60.26%-0.68 -4.3 9
1907-12-21 Linfield L 1-253.9 1456 1665 21.61% 16.32% 62.07%-0.93 -3.8 7
1907-12-21 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-153.9 1665 1456 62.07% 16.32% 21.61%+0.93 +3.8 15
1907-12-21 Bohemian W 3-040.9 1523 1479 53.81% 16.67% 29.52%+0.39 +14.6 10
1907-12-21 @ Cliftonville L 0-340.9 1479 1523 29.52% 16.67% 53.81%-0.39 -14.6 4
1907-12-21 Glentoran W 2-152.1 1340 1455 32.23% 16.65% 51.12%-0.44 +8.1 7
1907-12-21 @ Derry Celtic L 1-252.1 1455 1340 51.12% 16.65% 32.23%+0.44 -8.1 10
1907-12-21 Lisburn Distillery L 0-253.0 1557 1525 52.44% 16.69% 30.86%+0.33 -16.5 9
1907-12-21 @ Shelbourne W 2-053.0 1525 1557 30.86% 16.69% 52.44%-0.33 +16.5 10
1907-12-25 Belfast Celtic L 0-244.9 1447 1452 47.43% 16.74% 35.83%+0.13 -15.1 10
1907-12-25 @ Glentoran W 2-044.9 1452 1447 35.83% 16.74% 47.43%-0.13 +15.1 9
1907-12-25 Derry Celtic W 4-034.0 1669 1348 77.01% 15.14% 7.85%+1.84 +5.5 17
1907-12-25 @ Linfield L 0-434.0 1348 1669 7.85% 15.14% 77.01%-1.84 -5.5 7
1907-12-25 Cliftonville L 1-260.7 1541 1537 48.68% 16.73% 34.59%+0.18 -7.7 10
1907-12-25 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-160.7 1537 1541 34.59% 16.73% 48.68%-0.18 +7.7 12
1907-12-26 Shelbourne L 1-254.7 1465 1541 37.47% 16.72% 45.81%-0.23 -6.2 4
1907-12-26 @ Bohemian W 2-154.7 1541 1465 45.81% 16.72% 37.47%+0.23 +6.2 11
1907-12-28 Bohemian W 7-041.2 1467 1458 49.36% 16.73% 33.91%+0.21 +36.5 11
1907-12-28 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-741.2 1458 1467 33.91% 16.73% 49.36%-0.21 -36.5 4
1907-12-28 Cliftonville W 3-153.0 1674 1545 63.36% 16.40% 20.24%+0.84 +6.2 19
1907-12-28 @ Linfield L 1-353.0 1545 1674 20.24% 16.40% 63.36%-0.84 -6.2 12
1907-12-28 Derry Celtic W 2-143.2 1534 1342 68.84% 16.08% 15.07%+1.16 +2.7 12
1907-12-28 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-243.2 1342 1534 15.07% 16.08% 68.84%-1.16 -2.7 7
1907-12-28 Glentoran L 1-261.0 1547 1432 61.94% 16.46% 21.60%+0.76 -9.7 11
1907-12-28 @ Shelbourne W 2-161.0 1432 1547 21.60% 16.46% 61.94%-0.76 +9.7 12
1908-01-11 Linfield L 2-453.3 1422 1681 17.15% 16.05% 66.80%-1.19 -4.8 4
1908-01-11 @ Bohemian W 4-253.3 1681 1422 66.80% 16.05% 17.15%+1.19 +4.8 21
1908-01-11 Belfast Celtic W 3-151.1 1539 1504 52.74% 16.69% 30.57%+0.34 +9.0 14
1908-01-11 @ Cliftonville L 1-351.1 1504 1539 30.57% 16.69% 52.74%-0.34 -9.0 11
1908-01-11 Shelbourne W 1-051.7 1340 1537 22.72% 16.37% 60.91%-0.87 +10.1 9
1908-01-11 @ Derry Celtic L 0-151.7 1537 1340 60.91% 16.37% 22.72%+0.87 -10.1 11
1908-01-18 Glentoran L 2-374.8 1685 1442 72.62% 15.74% 11.63%+1.43 -10.8 21
1908-01-18 @ Linfield W 3-274.8 1442 1685 11.63% 15.74% 72.62%-1.43 +10.8 14
1908-01-25 Belfast Celtic W 3-042.1 1527 1495 52.40% 16.69% 30.91%+0.33 +15.2 13
1908-01-25 @ Shelbourne L 0-342.1 1495 1527 30.91% 16.69% 52.40%-0.33 -15.2 11
1908-02-08 Linfield D 2-275.8 1452 1674 20.33% 16.25% 63.41%-1.00 +1.3 15
1908-02-08 @ Glentoran D 2-275.8 1674 1452 63.41% 16.25% 20.33%+1.00 -1.3 22
1908-02-15 Lisburn Distillery L 0-145.6 1417 1536 31.76% 16.64% 51.60%-0.46 -5.7 4
1908-02-15 @ Bohemian W 1-045.6 1536 1417 51.60% 16.64% 31.76%+0.46 +5.7 14
1908-03-07 Bohemian W 3-144.5 1454 1412 53.65% 16.67% 29.68%+0.38 +8.8 17
1908-03-07 @ Glentoran L 1-344.5 1412 1454 29.68% 16.67% 53.65%-0.38 -8.8 4
1908-03-17 Belfast Celtic L 0-144.9 1403 1480 37.35% 16.72% 45.93%-0.24 -6.5 4
1908-03-17 @ Bohemian W 1-044.9 1480 1403 45.93% 16.72% 37.35%+0.24 +6.5 13
1908-04-11 Bohemian L 1-357.4 1542 1396 64.93% 16.32% 18.74%+0.92 -17.6 14
1908-04-11 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-157.4 1396 1542 18.74% 16.32% 64.93%-0.92 +17.6 6
1908-05-09 Cliftonville D 2-274.5 1542 1548 47.42% 16.74% 35.84%+0.13 -0.3 14
1908-05-09 @ Shelbourne D 2-274.5 1548 1542 35.84% 16.74% 47.42%-0.13 +0.3 15
1908-05-16 Cliftonville L 0-237.3 1350 1548 22.64% 16.37% 61.00%-0.87 -8.0 9
1908-05-16 @ Derry Celtic W 2-037.3 1548 1350 61.00% 16.37% 22.64%+0.87 +8.0 17

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1908-08-20 Glentoran W 3-258.3 1556 1462 54.28% 16.63% 29.10%+0.49 +4.7 1-0
1908-08-20 @ Cliftonville L 2-358.3 1462 1556 29.10% 16.63% 54.28%-0.49 -4.7 0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1908-01-18 11.63% Glentoran 1442 3 @ Linfield 1685 2
2 1908-04-11 18.74% Bohemian 1396 3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1542 1
3 1907-11-09 20.61% Derry Celtic 1332 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1458 1
4 1907-12-28 21.60% Glentoran 1432 2 @ Shelbourne 1547 1
5 1908-01-11 22.72% @ Derry Celtic 1340 1 Shelbourne 1537 0
6 1907-09-07 24.94% Glentoran 1425 3 @ Bohemian 1508 1
7 1907-09-14 25.46% Belfast Celtic 1450 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1529 0
8 1907-12-21 30.86% Lisburn Distillery 1525 2 @ Shelbourne 1557 0
9 1907-12-21 32.23% @ Derry Celtic 1340 2 Glentoran 1455 1
10 1907-09-14 33.25% @ Shelbourne 1548 2 Linfield 1656 0
11 1907-11-23 33.50% @ Derry Celtic 1342 1 Belfast Celtic 1448 0
12 1907-11-30 34.01% @ Belfast Celtic 1440 5 Lisburn Distillery 1541 2
13 1907-12-25 34.59% Cliftonville 1537 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1541 1
14 1907-09-14 35.15% @ Glentoran 1441 2 Cliftonville 1534 0
15 1907-10-19 35.26% @ Glentoran 1454 3 Shelbourne 1546 2
16 1907-12-25 35.83% Belfast Celtic 1452 2 @ Glentoran 1447 0
17 1907-11-09 36.15% Shelbourne 1547 2 @ Cliftonville 1539 0
18 1907-09-21 38.91% Cliftonville 1518 3 @ Bohemian 1491 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1907-12-28 36.51 @ Belfast Celtic 7 1467 49.36% Bohemian 0 1458 33.91% 16.73%
2 1907-09-21 20.68 Cliftonville 3 1518 38.91% @ Bohemian 0 1491 44.34% 16.75%
3 1907-09-07 18.86 Shelbourne 3 1529 43.54% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1469 39.72% 16.74%
4 1908-04-11 17.57 Bohemian 3 1396 18.74% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1542 64.93% 16.32%
5 1907-11-30 16.56 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1440 34.01% Lisburn Distillery 2 1541 49.31% 16.68%
6 1907-12-21 16.53 Lisburn Distillery 2 1525 30.86% @ Shelbourne 0 1557 52.44% 16.69%
7 1907-09-21 16.45 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1519 41.87% Shelbourne 1 1564 41.38% 16.75%
8 1907-09-07 15.86 Glentoran 3 1425 24.94% @ Bohemian 1 1508 58.49% 16.57%
9 1907-09-14 15.83 @ Shelbourne 2 1548 33.25% Linfield 0 1656 50.08% 16.67%
10 1907-09-14 15.29 @ Glentoran 2 1441 35.15% Cliftonville 0 1534 48.15% 16.70%
11 1908-01-25 15.23 @ Shelbourne 3 1527 52.40% Belfast Celtic 0 1495 30.91% 16.69%
12 1907-12-25 15.10 Belfast Celtic 2 1452 35.83% @ Glentoran 0 1447 47.43% 16.74%
13 1907-11-09 15.01 Shelbourne 2 1547 36.15% @ Cliftonville 0 1539 47.11% 16.74%
14 1907-12-21 14.63 @ Cliftonville 3 1523 53.81% Bohemian 0 1479 29.52% 16.67%
15 1907-11-30 10.97 @ Bohemian 3 1468 62.21% Derry Celtic 0 1351 21.35% 16.45%
16 1908-01-18 10.78 Glentoran 3 1442 11.63% @ Linfield 2 1685 72.62% 15.74%
17 1908-01-11 10.09 @ Derry Celtic 1 1340 22.72% Shelbourne 0 1537 60.91% 16.37%
18 1907-11-09 9.84 Derry Celtic 2 1332 20.61% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1458 62.97% 16.41%
19 1907-12-28 9.68 Glentoran 2 1432 21.60% @ Shelbourne 1 1547 61.94% 16.46%
20 1907-09-14 9.63 Belfast Celtic 1 1450 25.46% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1529 57.96% 16.58%
21 1908-01-11 9.00 @ Cliftonville 3 1539 52.74% Belfast Celtic 1 1504 30.57% 16.69%
22 1908-03-07 8.76 @ Glentoran 3 1454 53.65% Bohemian 1 1412 29.68% 16.67%
23 1907-11-23 8.37 @ Derry Celtic 1 1342 33.50% Belfast Celtic 0 1448 49.83% 16.67%
24 1907-11-02 8.36 @ Linfield 3 1646 67.95% Belfast Celtic 0 1466 15.90% 16.14%
25 1907-12-21 8.07 @ Derry Celtic 2 1340 32.23% Glentoran 1 1455 51.12% 16.65%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1908-02-08 75.8 @ Glentoran 2 1452 20.33% Linfield 2 1674 63.41% 16.25%
2 1908-01-18 74.8 Glentoran 3 1442 11.63% @ Linfield 2 1685 72.62% 15.74%
3 1908-05-09 74.5 @ Shelbourne 2 1542 47.42% Cliftonville 2 1548 35.84% 16.74%
4 1907-10-19 71.2 @ Cliftonville 1 1539 33.56% Linfield 1 1644 49.77% 16.67%
5 1907-09-28 67.9 @ Cliftonville 1 1539 48.67% Lisburn Distillery 1 1535 34.60% 16.73%
6 1907-09-28 65.9 @ Shelbourne 1 1547 57.84% Bohemian 1 1470 25.57% 16.59%
7 1907-11-23 65.0 @ Glentoran 1 1453 35.80% Lisburn Distillery 1 1542 47.49% 16.70%
8 1907-11-30 64.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1524 57.02% Glentoran 1 1454 26.38% 16.61%
9 1907-10-19 63.3 @ Glentoran 3 1454 35.26% Shelbourne 2 1546 48.05% 16.70%
10 1907-10-26 61.2 @ Belfast Celtic 0 1466 37.84% Cliftonville 0 1539 45.43% 16.72%
11 1907-12-28 61.0 Glentoran 2 1432 21.60% @ Shelbourne 1 1547 61.94% 16.46%
12 1907-12-25 60.7 Cliftonville 2 1537 34.59% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1541 48.68% 16.73%
13 1907-09-14 60.0 @ Derry Celtic 1 1351 29.06% Bohemian 1 1492 54.36% 16.58%
14 1908-08-20 * 58.3 @ Cliftonville 3 1556 54.28% Glentoran 2 1462 29.10% 16.63%
15 1908-04-11 57.4 Bohemian 3 1396 18.74% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1542 64.93% 16.32%
16 1907-09-14 55.7 @ Shelbourne 2 1548 33.25% Linfield 0 1656 50.08% 16.67%
17 1907-11-09 55.5 Derry Celtic 2 1332 20.61% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1458 62.97% 16.41%
18 1907-09-07 55.3 Glentoran 3 1425 24.94% @ Bohemian 1 1508 58.49% 16.57%
19 1907-11-30 54.7 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1440 34.01% Lisburn Distillery 2 1541 49.31% 16.68%
20 1907-12-26 54.7 Shelbourne 2 1541 45.81% @ Bohemian 1 1465 37.47% 16.72%
21 1907-09-14 54.4 Belfast Celtic 1 1450 25.46% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1529 57.96% 16.58%
22 1907-11-09 54.2 Linfield 1 1655 50.03% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1548 33.31% 16.67%
23 1907-12-21 53.9 Linfield 2 1665 62.07% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1456 21.61% 16.32%
24 1908-01-11 53.3 Linfield 4 1681 66.80% @ Bohemian 2 1422 17.15% 16.05%
25 1907-09-21 53.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1519 41.87% Shelbourne 1 1564 41.38% 16.75%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1907-10-26 31.9 @ Shelbourne 3 1539 69.43% Derry Celtic 0 1340 14.53% 16.04%
2 1907-11-30 32.4 @ Bohemian 3 1468 62.21% Derry Celtic 0 1351 21.35% 16.45%
3 1907-12-25 34.0 @ Linfield 4 1669 77.01% Derry Celtic 0 1348 7.85% 15.14%
4 1908-05-16 37.3 Cliftonville 2 1548 61.00% @ Derry Celtic 0 1350 22.64% 16.37%
5 1907-11-02 40.6 @ Linfield 3 1646 67.95% Belfast Celtic 0 1466 15.90% 16.14%
6 1907-12-21 40.9 @ Cliftonville 3 1523 53.81% Bohemian 0 1479 29.52% 16.67%
7 1907-12-28 41.2 @ Belfast Celtic 7 1467 49.36% Bohemian 0 1458 33.91% 16.73%
8 1908-01-25 42.1 @ Shelbourne 3 1527 52.40% Belfast Celtic 0 1495 30.91% 16.69%
9 1907-12-28 43.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1534 68.84% Derry Celtic 1 1342 15.07% 16.08%
10 1907-09-07 43.9 Shelbourne 3 1529 43.54% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1469 39.72% 16.74%
11 1908-03-07 44.5 @ Glentoran 3 1454 53.65% Bohemian 1 1412 29.68% 16.67%
12 1907-12-25 44.9 Belfast Celtic 2 1452 35.83% @ Glentoran 0 1447 47.43% 16.74%
13 1908-03-17 44.9 Belfast Celtic 1 1480 45.93% @ Bohemian 0 1403 37.35% 16.72%
14 1908-02-15 45.6 Lisburn Distillery 1 1536 51.60% @ Bohemian 0 1417 31.76% 16.64%
15 1907-09-21 45.7 Cliftonville 3 1518 38.91% @ Bohemian 0 1491 44.34% 16.75%
16 1907-10-19 45.9 Lisburn Distillery 2 1536 60.26% @ Derry Celtic 1 1344 23.34% 16.40%
17 1907-11-23 46.2 @ Derry Celtic 1 1342 33.50% Belfast Celtic 0 1448 49.83% 16.67%
18 1907-10-26 46.7 @ Linfield 1 1643 67.24% Bohemian 0 1472 16.57% 16.19%
19 1907-09-14 47.8 @ Glentoran 2 1441 35.15% Cliftonville 0 1534 48.15% 16.70%
20 1907-10-26 47.9 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1540 58.04% Glentoran 1 1461 25.38% 16.58%
21 1907-09-28 48.4 Linfield 4 1640 69.51% @ Derry Celtic 2 1348 14.65% 15.84%
22 1907-09-07 49.5 @ Cliftonville 3 1531 67.70% Derry Celtic 2 1354 16.14% 16.16%
23 1907-09-28 50.8 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1460 48.20% Glentoran 1 1460 35.07% 16.73%
24 1908-01-11 51.1 @ Cliftonville 3 1539 52.74% Belfast Celtic 1 1504 30.57% 16.69%
25 1907-11-09 51.5 Shelbourne 2 1547 36.15% @ Cliftonville 0 1539 47.11% 16.74%