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1909-10 Irish League Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Cliftonville

20 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cliftonville

4.00 points above expected

20 points · 16.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glentoran

2.28 points below expected

11 points · 13.28 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Cliftonville 14 8 4 2 20 25 15 +10 16.00 +4.00
2 Belfast Celtic 14 9 0 5 18 25 13 +12 14.48 +3.52
3 Linfield 14 5 5 4 15 19 20 -1 15.09 -0.09
4 Lisburn Distillery 14 5 3 6 13 14 13 +1 13.81 -0.81
5 Derry Celtic 14 4 5 5 13 19 21 -2 13.25 -0.25
6 Glentoran 14 5 1 8 11 23 23 0 13.28 -2.28
7 Shelbourne 14 2 7 5 11 15 24 -9 12.90 -1.90
8 Bohemian 14 4 3 7 11 20 31 -11 13.19 -2.19

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cliftonville 20 16.00 +4.00
2 Belfast Celtic 18 14.48 +3.52
3 Linfield 15 15.09 -0.09
4 Derry Celtic 13 13.25 -0.25
5 Lisburn Distillery 13 13.81 -0.81

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glentoran 11 13.28 -2.28
2 Bohemian 11 13.19 -2.19
3 Shelbourne 11 12.90 -1.90
4 Lisburn Distillery 13 13.81 -0.81
5 Derry Celtic 13 13.25 -0.25

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 6 Dec 11 – Jan 22 1 in 474
2 Bohemian 2 Sep 11 – Sep 18 1 in 16
3 Glentoran 2 Dec 4 – Dec 11 1 in 15
4 Lisburn Distillery 2 Sep 4 – Sep 11 1 in 11
5 Cliftonville 2 Sep 11 – Sep 18 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 3 Oct 23 – Dec 11 1 in 21
2 Glentoran 2 Sep 4 – Sep 11 1 in 11
3 Lisburn Distillery 2 Dec 18 – Dec 25 1 in 10
4 Belfast Celtic 2 Sep 4 – Sep 11 1 in 9
5 Shelbourne 1 Sep 18 – Sep 18 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 8 Sep 4 – Dec 4 1 in 23
2 Belfast Celtic 6 Dec 11 – Jan 22 1 in 14
3 Linfield 5 Sep 25 – Dec 4 1 in 6
4 Derry Celtic 5 Oct 16 – Dec 18 1 in 6
5 Shelbourne 3 Dec 27 – Jan 15 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 7 Oct 2 – Dec 25 1 in 31
2 Bohemian 6 Sep 25 – Dec 11 1 in 22
3 Shelbourne 5 Dec 18 – Jan 22 1 in 8
4 Glentoran 3 Jan 8 – Jan 22 1 in 6
5 Linfield 4 Dec 11 – Jan 8 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Cliftonville 1615 20 +71 7 5.1 +1.9
Belfast Celtic 1670 18 +177 10 5.3 +4.7
Linfield 1498 15 -60 4 5.7 -1.7
Derry Celtic 1483 13 -3 4 4.3 -0.3
Lisburn Distillery 1486 13 -13 4 5.4 -1.4
Bohemian 1409 11 -8 5 4.5 +0.5
Glentoran 1428 11 -98 3 5.4 -2.4
Shelbourne 1410 11 -66 3 4.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
2-0-0
3.32
1-0-1
2.32
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.74
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
2.80
2-0-0
2.68
Bohemian
0-0-2
2.15
 —
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
2.82
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
2.44
2-0-0
2.38
0-2-0
2.82
Cliftonville
1-0-1
3.15
1-0-1
3.15
 —
1-1-0
3.02
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
2.62
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
2.92
Derry Celtic
1-0-1
2.38
2-0-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.46
 —
1-0-1
2.67
0-2-0
2.38
0-1-1
2.64
0-1-1
2.82
Glentoran
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
2.84
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
2.81
 —
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.60
1-1-0
2.72
Linfield
2-0-0
3.02
1-1-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.85
0-2-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.97
 —
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
3.18
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
2.67
0-0-2
3.10
0-1-1
2.53
1-1-0
2.84
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-1
2.60
 —
1-1-0
2.93
Shelbourne
0-0-2
2.80
0-2-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.75
1-1-0
2.29
0-1-1
2.55
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +5.1
Allowed 0.51 -3.9
Differential 0.76 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%10.71%4.46%0.89%0.89%0.89%25.00%
110.71%10.71%8.04%2.68%3.57%0.89%36.61%
24.46%8.04%7.14%1.79%0.89%—22.32%
30.89%2.68%1.79%—0.89%—6.25%
40.89%3.57%0.89%0.89%—0.89%7.14%
5+0.89%0.89%——0.89%—2.68%
Total25.00%36.61%22.32%6.25%7.14%2.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.31 1.76
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
121.43%—14.29%———35.71%
214.29%7.14%—7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%—————7.14%
Total42.86%28.57%21.43%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 0.93 +0.86
SD 1.42 1.00 1.92
CV 0.80 1.07 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%————7.14%
114.29%7.14%7.14%14.29%7.14%7.14%57.14%
2—7.14%14.29%7.14%——28.57%
3———————
4———7.14%——7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%21.43%21.43%28.57%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 2.21 -0.79
SD 0.94 1.63 1.76
CV 0.66 0.73 —
Max 4 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—7.14%———14.29%
121.43%21.43%————42.86%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3————7.14%—7.14%
4—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
5+———————
Total28.57%50.00%14.29%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.07 +0.71
SD 1.42 1.07 1.38
CV 0.80 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
1—7.14%7.14%—7.14%—21.43%
27.14%7.14%14.29%———28.57%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4———————
5+————7.14%—7.14%
Total21.43%35.71%28.57%—14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.50 -0.14
SD 1.45 1.29 1.41
CV 1.07 0.86 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
114.29%—21.43%—14.29%—50.00%
27.14%—————7.14%
3———————
47.14%————7.14%14.29%
5+—7.14%————7.14%
Total35.71%14.29%28.57%—14.29%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.64 +0.00
SD 1.78 1.69 2.39
CV 1.08 1.03 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%——7.14%—28.57%
1—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
2—14.29%7.14%———21.43%
3—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%35.71%—7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.43 -0.07
SD 1.15 1.02 1.44
CV 0.85 0.71 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—35.71%————35.71%
114.29%14.29%—7.14%——35.71%
27.14%7.14%7.14%———21.43%
37.14%—————7.14%
4———————
5+———————
Total28.57%57.14%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.93 +0.07
SD 0.96 0.83 1.38
CV 0.96 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%7.14%7.14%7.14%—7.14%42.86%
1—21.43%————21.43%
2—7.14%14.29%—7.14%—28.57%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%21.43%7.14%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.71 -0.64
SD 1.21 1.44 1.91
CV 1.13 0.84 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Belfast Celtic 1670 18 14.48 +3.52 88.0% 6 10 12 14 17 19 21
Cliftonville 1615 20 16.00 +4.00 96.0% 12 12 14 16 18 20 21
Linfield 1498 15 15.09 -0.09 56.0% 8 10 13 15 17 19 21
Lisburn Distillery 1486 13 13.81 -0.81 40.0% 5 7 12 14 16 19 21
Derry Celtic 1483 13 13.25 -0.25 54.0% 8 9 11 13 15 17 20
Glentoran 1428 11 13.28 -2.28 20.0% 5 8 12 13 15 17 20
Shelbourne 1410 11 12.90 -1.90 29.0% 5 9 11 13 14 17 19
Bohemian 1409 11 13.19 -2.19 31.0% 4 8 11 14 16 17 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+35.71%
Strong Edge
55.36%25.00%19.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge
185 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0129.80500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.71 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.70+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.2
Wide Open
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
Cliftonville, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.26 * Some Luck: 2.26 to 3.39 * Lucky: 3.39 to 4.52 * Wild Swing: 4.52 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.67 * Close: 1.67 to 2.5 * Off: 2.5 to 3.34 * Way Off: 3.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.31 points
Some Luck
02.827
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.75
Pinpoint
02.085
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
96.00%
Cliftonville
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
20.00%
Glentoran
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 95.66
1.06
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
70%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.57
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.72
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.11
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%16%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.66
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.71
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.118
Well Within Noise
00.1660.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Cliftonville30.00%21.00%10.00%19.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%
Belfast Celtic17.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%8.00%
Linfield22.00%17.00%10.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%8.00%5.00%
Lisburn Distillery12.00%12.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%17.00%
Derry Celtic7.00%5.00%15.00%15.00%10.00%9.00%22.00%17.00%
Glentoran5.00%8.00%15.00%10.00%15.00%24.00%11.00%12.00%
Shelbourne1.00%10.00%4.00%10.00%18.00%16.00%22.00%19.00%
Bohemian6.00%7.00%15.00%11.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1909-09-04 Linfield L 1-262.7 1494 1528 55.97% 26.33% 17.70%+0.52 -27.3 0
1909-09-04 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-162.7 1528 1494 17.70% 26.33% 55.97%-0.52 +27.3 2
1909-09-04 Bohemian W 3-145.0 1474 1491 57.46% 26.26% 16.28%+0.61 +17.5 2
1909-09-04 @ Derry Celtic L 1-345.0 1491 1474 16.28% 26.26% 57.46%-0.61 -17.5 0
1909-09-04 Lisburn Distillery L 1-262.8 1500 1504 58.60% 26.20% 15.19%+0.68 -28.6 0
1909-09-04 @ Glentoran W 2-162.8 1504 1500 15.19% 26.20% 58.60%-0.68 +28.6 2
1909-09-04 Cliftonville D 1-162.7 1505 1504 59.01% 26.18% 14.81%+0.71 -5.3 1
1909-09-04 @ Shelbourne D 1-162.7 1504 1505 14.81% 26.18% 59.01%-0.71 +5.3 1
1909-09-11 Glentoran W 2-147.4 1474 1472 59.12% 26.17% 14.71%+0.72 +9.3 2
1909-09-11 @ Bohemian L 1-247.4 1472 1474 14.71% 26.17% 59.12%-0.72 -9.3 0
1909-09-11 Belfast Celtic W 2-147.6 1509 1467 62.12% 25.94% 11.94%+0.93 +7.8 3
1909-09-11 @ Cliftonville L 1-247.6 1467 1509 11.94% 25.94% 62.12%-0.93 -7.8 0
1909-09-11 Shelbourne D 1-164.5 1555 1499 63.04% 25.85% 11.11%+1.01 -6.5 3
1909-09-11 @ Linfield D 1-164.5 1499 1555 11.11% 25.85% 63.04%-1.01 +6.5 2
1909-09-11 Derry Celtic W 2-040.7 1533 1491 62.07% 25.94% 11.99%+0.93 +15.6 4
1909-09-11 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-240.7 1491 1533 11.99% 25.94% 62.07%-0.93 -15.6 2
1909-09-18 Linfield W 2-152.7 1517 1549 56.16% 26.32% 17.52%+0.53 +10.7 5
1909-09-18 @ Cliftonville L 1-252.7 1549 1517 17.52% 26.32% 56.16%-0.53 -10.7 3
1909-09-18 Derry Celtic W 1-042.7 1462 1476 57.82% 26.25% 15.93%+0.63 +10.5 2
1909-09-18 @ Glentoran L 0-142.7 1476 1462 15.93% 26.25% 57.82%-0.63 -10.5 2
1909-09-18 Bohemian L 0-160.3 1549 1483 63.63% 25.78% 10.58%+1.06 -33.0 4
1909-09-18 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-060.3 1483 1549 10.58% 25.78% 63.63%-1.06 +33.0 4
1909-09-18 Belfast Celtic L 0-157.5 1506 1459 62.43% 25.91% 11.66%+0.96 -32.4 2
1909-09-18 @ Shelbourne W 1-057.5 1459 1506 11.66% 25.91% 62.43%-0.96 +32.4 2
1909-09-25 Lisburn Distillery L 0-157.5 1491 1516 56.86% 26.29% 16.84%+0.57 -29.4 2
1909-09-25 @ Belfast Celtic W 1-057.5 1516 1491 16.84% 26.29% 56.86%-0.57 +29.4 6
1909-09-25 Shelbourne D 2-267.1 1516 1473 62.16% 25.94% 11.90%+0.94 -4.6 5
1909-09-25 @ Bohemian D 2-267.1 1473 1516 11.90% 25.94% 62.16%-0.94 +4.6 3
1909-09-25 Cliftonville D 1-162.0 1465 1527 53.24% 26.42% 20.34%+0.37 -3.8 3
1909-09-25 @ Derry Celtic D 1-162.0 1527 1465 20.34% 26.42% 53.24%-0.37 +3.8 6
1909-09-25 Glentoran W 2-148.5 1538 1473 63.62% 25.78% 10.60%+1.06 +7.0 5
1909-09-25 @ Linfield L 1-248.5 1473 1538 10.60% 25.78% 63.62%-1.06 -7.0 2
1909-10-02 Glentoran W 2-038.2 1462 1466 58.59% 26.20% 15.20%+0.68 +19.1 4
1909-10-02 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-238.2 1466 1462 15.20% 26.20% 58.59%-0.68 -19.1 2
1909-10-02 Bohemian W 4-144.3 1531 1512 60.48% 26.08% 13.44%+0.81 +21.1 8
1909-10-02 @ Cliftonville L 1-444.3 1512 1531 13.44% 26.08% 60.48%-0.81 -21.0 5
1909-10-02 Lisburn Distillery W 3-149.1 1545 1545 58.95% 26.18% 14.86%+0.70 +16.2 7
1909-10-02 @ Linfield L 1-349.1 1545 1545 14.86% 26.18% 58.95%-0.70 -16.2 6
1909-10-02 Derry Celtic W 4-140.5 1478 1461 60.24% 26.10% 13.67%+0.79 +21.4 5
1909-10-02 @ Shelbourne L 1-440.5 1461 1478 13.67% 26.10% 60.24%-0.79 -21.4 3
1909-10-16 Linfield D 1-164.2 1491 1561 52.35% 26.44% 21.21%+0.32 -3.6 6
1909-10-16 @ Bohemian D 1-164.2 1561 1491 21.21% 26.44% 52.35%-0.32 +3.6 8
1909-10-16 Belfast Celtic W 2-039.0 1440 1481 55.35% 26.35% 18.29%+0.48 +22.2 5
1909-10-16 @ Derry Celtic L 0-239.0 1481 1440 18.29% 26.35% 55.35%-0.48 -22.2 4
1909-10-16 Shelbourne W 2-040.2 1447 1499 54.22% 26.39% 19.38%+0.42 +23.3 4
1909-10-16 @ Glentoran L 0-240.2 1499 1447 19.38% 26.39% 54.22%-0.42 -23.3 5
1909-10-16 Cliftonville D 1-165.3 1529 1552 56.92% 26.29% 16.79%+0.58 -4.8 7
1909-10-16 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-165.3 1552 1529 16.79% 26.29% 56.92%-0.58 +4.8 9
1909-10-23 Bohemian W 1-043.3 1459 1487 56.50% 26.31% 17.19%+0.55 +11.2 6
1909-10-23 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-143.3 1487 1459 17.19% 26.31% 56.50%-0.55 -11.2 6
1909-10-23 Glentoran W 1-043.8 1557 1470 64.94% 25.62% 9.45%+1.17 +6.7 11
1909-10-23 @ Cliftonville L 0-143.8 1470 1557 9.45% 25.62% 64.94%-1.17 -6.7 4
1909-10-23 Linfield D 2-268.4 1462 1565 48.83% 26.49% 24.68%+0.15 -2.0 6
1909-10-23 @ Derry Celtic D 2-268.4 1565 1462 24.68% 26.49% 48.83%-0.15 +2.0 9
1909-10-23 Lisburn Distillery D 1-162.3 1476 1524 54.66% 26.38% 18.96%+0.44 -4.2 6
1909-10-23 @ Shelbourne D 1-162.3 1524 1476 18.96% 26.38% 54.66%-0.44 +4.2 8
1909-12-04 Derry Celtic L 1-260.7 1476 1460 60.16% 26.10% 13.74%+0.79 -29.4 6
1909-12-04 @ Bohemian W 2-160.7 1460 1476 13.74% 26.10% 60.16%-0.79 +29.4 8
1909-12-04 Shelbourne W 4-249.1 1564 1472 65.23% 25.57% 9.20%+1.20 +9.5 13
1909-12-04 @ Cliftonville L 2-449.1 1472 1564 9.20% 25.57% 65.23%-1.20 -9.5 6
1909-12-04 Belfast Celtic W 3-253.6 1567 1470 65.52% 25.53% 8.95%+1.23 +5.7 11
1909-12-04 @ Linfield L 2-353.6 1470 1567 8.95% 25.53% 65.52%-1.23 -5.7 6
1909-12-04 Glentoran L 0-158.8 1528 1464 63.59% 25.79% 10.63%+1.05 -33.0 8
1909-12-04 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-058.8 1464 1528 10.63% 25.79% 63.59%-1.05 +33.0 6
1909-12-11 Cliftonville W 2-045.4 1464 1573 48.05% 26.50% 25.45%+0.11 +28.9 8
1909-12-11 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-245.4 1573 1464 25.45% 26.50% 48.05%-0.11 -28.9 13
1909-12-11 Lisburn Distillery D 2-266.8 1490 1495 58.50% 26.21% 15.29%+0.67 -3.9 9
1909-12-11 @ Derry Celtic D 2-266.8 1495 1490 15.29% 26.21% 58.50%-0.67 +3.9 9
1909-12-11 Bohemian W 6-138.3 1497 1446 62.65% 25.89% 11.46%+0.97 +29.0 8
1909-12-11 @ Glentoran L 1-638.3 1446 1497 11.46% 25.89% 62.65%-0.97 -29.0 6
1909-12-11 Linfield W 2-154.1 1462 1573 47.91% 26.50% 25.59%+0.11 +14.5 8
1909-12-11 @ Shelbourne L 1-254.1 1573 1462 25.59% 26.50% 47.91%-0.11 -14.5 11
1909-12-18 Shelbourne W 5-037.1 1493 1477 60.22% 26.10% 13.68%+0.79 +40.8 10
1909-12-18 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-537.1 1477 1493 13.68% 26.10% 60.22%-0.79 -40.8 8
1909-12-18 Lisburn Distillery W 1-043.9 1417 1499 51.20% 26.46% 22.34%+0.26 +13.8 8
1909-12-18 @ Bohemian L 0-143.9 1499 1417 22.34% 26.46% 51.20%-0.26 -13.9 9
1909-12-18 Glentoran W 5-459.8 1486 1526 55.45% 26.35% 18.20%+0.49 +10.1 11
1909-12-18 @ Derry Celtic L 4-559.8 1526 1486 18.20% 26.35% 55.45%-0.49 -10.1 8
1909-12-18 Cliftonville D 0-061.9 1558 1544 60.03% 26.11% 13.86%+0.78 -6.3 12
1909-12-18 @ Linfield D 0-061.9 1544 1558 13.86% 26.11% 60.03%-0.78 +6.3 14
1909-12-25 Derry Celtic W 1-045.1 1551 1496 62.95% 25.86% 11.19%+1.00 +7.8 16
1909-12-25 @ Cliftonville L 0-145.1 1496 1551 11.19% 25.86% 62.95%-1.00 -7.8 11
1909-12-25 Linfield W 4-041.4 1515 1552 55.77% 26.34% 17.90%+0.51 +41.5 10
1909-12-25 @ Glentoran L 0-441.4 1552 1515 17.90% 26.34% 55.77%-0.51 -41.5 12
1909-12-25 Belfast Celtic L 0-157.3 1485 1534 54.58% 26.38% 19.04%+0.44 -28.2 9
1909-12-25 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-057.3 1534 1485 19.04% 26.38% 54.58%-0.44 +28.2 12
1909-12-27 Bohemian D 2-262.8 1436 1431 59.32% 26.16% 14.52%+0.73 -4.0 9
1909-12-27 @ Shelbourne D 2-262.8 1431 1436 14.52% 26.16% 59.32%-0.73 +4.0 9
1910-01-08 Cliftonville W 4-360.6 1435 1558 46.36% 26.51% 27.13%+0.04 +14.1 11
1910-01-08 @ Bohemian L 3-460.6 1558 1435 27.13% 26.51% 46.36%-0.04 -14.1 16
1910-01-08 Shelbourne D 0-055.4 1488 1432 63.05% 25.85% 11.10%+1.01 -7.2 12
1910-01-08 @ Derry Celtic D 0-055.4 1432 1488 11.10% 25.85% 63.05%-1.01 +7.2 10
1910-01-08 Belfast Celtic L 1-460.4 1557 1562 58.51% 26.21% 15.28%+0.68 -69.9 10
1910-01-08 @ Glentoran W 4-160.4 1562 1557 15.28% 26.21% 58.51%-0.68 +69.9 14
1910-01-08 Linfield W 1-044.8 1457 1510 54.12% 26.39% 19.49%+0.41 +12.4 11
1910-01-08 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-144.8 1510 1457 19.49% 26.39% 54.12%-0.41 -12.4 12
1910-01-15 Derry Celtic W 2-150.7 1632 1481 68.24% 25.03% 6.73%+1.52 +4.6 16
1910-01-15 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-250.7 1481 1632 6.73% 25.03% 68.24%-1.52 -4.6 12
1910-01-15 Lisburn Distillery W 1-043.5 1544 1469 64.24% 25.71% 10.05%+1.11 +7.1 18
1910-01-15 @ Cliftonville L 0-143.5 1469 1544 10.05% 25.71% 64.24%-1.11 -7.1 11
1910-01-15 Bohemian W 3-251.1 1498 1449 62.54% 25.90% 11.56%+0.97 +7.1 14
1910-01-15 @ Linfield L 2-351.1 1449 1498 11.56% 25.90% 62.54%-0.97 -7.2 11
1910-01-15 Glentoran D 0-055.5 1439 1487 54.67% 26.38% 18.95%+0.44 -4.7 11
1910-01-15 @ Shelbourne D 0-055.5 1487 1439 18.95% 26.38% 54.67%-0.44 +4.7 11
1910-01-22 Belfast Celtic L 1-355.4 1442 1637 36.84% 26.43% 36.74%-0.35 -33.0 11
1910-01-22 @ Bohemian W 3-155.4 1637 1442 36.74% 26.43% 36.84%+0.35 +33.0 18
1910-01-22 Cliftonville L 1-456.4 1492 1551 53.49% 26.41% 20.10%+0.38 -64.0 11
1910-01-22 @ Glentoran W 4-156.4 1551 1492 20.10% 26.41% 53.49%-0.38 +63.9 20
1910-01-22 Derry Celtic D 0-057.6 1505 1476 61.15% 26.03% 12.83%+0.86 -6.6 15
1910-01-22 @ Linfield D 0-057.6 1476 1505 12.83% 26.03% 61.15%-0.86 +6.6 13
1910-01-22 Shelbourne W 3-034.1 1462 1435 61.08% 26.03% 12.89%+0.85 +24.1 13
1910-01-22 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-334.1 1435 1462 12.89% 26.03% 61.08%-0.85 -24.1 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1909-09-18 10.58% Bohemian 1483 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1549 0
2 1909-12-04 10.63% Glentoran 1464 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1528 0
3 1909-09-18 11.66% Belfast Celtic 1459 1 @ Shelbourne 1506 0
4 1909-12-04 13.74% Derry Celtic 1460 2 @ Bohemian 1476 1
5 1909-09-04 15.19% Lisburn Distillery 1504 2 @ Glentoran 1500 1
6 1910-01-08 15.28% Belfast Celtic 1562 4 @ Glentoran 1557 1
7 1909-09-25 16.84% Lisburn Distillery 1516 1 @ Belfast Celtic 1491 0
8 1909-09-04 17.70% Linfield 1528 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1494 1
9 1909-12-25 19.04% Belfast Celtic 1534 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1485 0
10 1910-01-22 20.10% Cliftonville 1551 4 @ Glentoran 1492 1
11 1910-01-22 36.74% Belfast Celtic 1637 3 @ Bohemian 1442 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1910-01-08 69.89 Belfast Celtic 4 1562 15.28% @ Glentoran 1 1557 58.51% 26.21%
2 1910-01-22 63.95 Cliftonville 4 1551 20.10% @ Glentoran 1 1492 53.49% 26.41%
3 1909-12-25 41.46 @ Glentoran 4 1515 55.77% Linfield 0 1552 17.90% 26.34%
4 1909-12-18 40.82 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1493 60.22% Shelbourne 0 1477 13.68% 26.10%
5 1910-01-22 33.04 Belfast Celtic 3 1637 36.74% @ Bohemian 1 1442 36.84% 26.43%
6 1909-09-18 33.03 Bohemian 1 1483 10.58% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1549 63.63% 25.78%
7 1909-12-04 33.01 Glentoran 1 1464 10.63% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1528 63.59% 25.79%
8 1909-09-18 32.37 Belfast Celtic 1 1459 11.66% @ Shelbourne 0 1506 62.43% 25.91%
9 1909-09-25 29.40 Lisburn Distillery 1 1516 16.84% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1491 56.86% 26.29%
10 1909-12-04 29.36 Derry Celtic 2 1460 13.74% @ Bohemian 1 1476 60.16% 26.10%
11 1909-12-11 28.98 @ Glentoran 6 1497 62.65% Bohemian 1 1446 11.46% 25.89%
12 1909-12-11 28.92 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1464 48.05% Cliftonville 0 1573 25.45% 26.50%
13 1909-09-04 28.58 Lisburn Distillery 2 1504 15.19% @ Glentoran 1 1500 58.60% 26.20%
14 1909-12-25 28.24 Belfast Celtic 1 1534 19.04% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1485 54.58% 26.38%
15 1909-09-04 27.29 Linfield 2 1528 17.70% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1494 55.97% 26.33%
16 1910-01-22 24.08 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1462 61.08% Shelbourne 0 1435 12.89% 26.03%
17 1909-10-16 23.32 @ Glentoran 2 1447 54.22% Shelbourne 0 1499 19.38% 26.39%
18 1909-10-16 22.25 @ Derry Celtic 2 1440 55.35% Belfast Celtic 0 1481 18.29% 26.35%
19 1909-10-02 21.36 @ Shelbourne 4 1478 60.24% Derry Celtic 1 1461 13.67% 26.10%
20 1909-10-02 21.06 @ Cliftonville 4 1531 60.48% Bohemian 1 1512 13.44% 26.08%
21 1909-10-02 19.09 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1462 58.59% Glentoran 0 1466 15.20% 26.20%
22 1909-09-04 17.51 @ Derry Celtic 3 1474 57.46% Bohemian 1 1491 16.28% 26.26%
23 1909-10-02 16.22 @ Linfield 3 1545 58.95% Lisburn Distillery 1 1545 14.86% 26.18%
24 1909-09-11 15.57 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1533 62.07% Derry Celtic 0 1491 11.99% 25.94%
25 1909-12-11 14.52 @ Shelbourne 2 1462 47.91% Linfield 1 1573 25.59% 26.50%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1909-10-23 68.4 @ Derry Celtic 2 1462 48.83% Linfield 2 1565 24.68% 26.49%
2 1909-09-25 67.1 @ Bohemian 2 1516 62.16% Shelbourne 2 1473 11.90% 25.94%
3 1909-12-11 66.8 @ Derry Celtic 2 1490 58.50% Lisburn Distillery 2 1495 15.29% 26.21%
4 1909-10-16 65.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1529 56.92% Cliftonville 1 1552 16.79% 26.29%
5 1909-09-11 64.5 @ Linfield 1 1555 63.04% Shelbourne 1 1499 11.11% 25.85%
6 1909-10-16 64.2 @ Bohemian 1 1491 52.35% Linfield 1 1561 21.21% 26.44%
7 1909-09-04 62.8 Lisburn Distillery 2 1504 15.19% @ Glentoran 1 1500 58.60% 26.20%
8 1909-12-27 62.8 @ Shelbourne 2 1436 59.32% Bohemian 2 1431 14.52% 26.16%
9 1909-09-04 62.7 Linfield 2 1528 17.70% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1494 55.97% 26.33%
10 1909-09-04 62.7 @ Shelbourne 1 1505 59.01% Cliftonville 1 1504 14.81% 26.18%
11 1909-10-23 62.3 @ Shelbourne 1 1476 54.66% Lisburn Distillery 1 1524 18.96% 26.38%
12 1909-09-25 62.0 @ Derry Celtic 1 1465 53.24% Cliftonville 1 1527 20.34% 26.42%
13 1909-12-18 61.9 @ Linfield 0 1558 60.03% Cliftonville 0 1544 13.86% 26.11%
14 1909-12-04 60.7 Derry Celtic 2 1460 13.74% @ Bohemian 1 1476 60.16% 26.10%
15 1910-01-08 60.6 @ Bohemian 4 1435 46.36% Cliftonville 3 1558 27.13% 26.51%
16 1910-01-08 60.4 Belfast Celtic 4 1562 15.28% @ Glentoran 1 1557 58.51% 26.21%
17 1909-09-18 60.3 Bohemian 1 1483 10.58% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1549 63.63% 25.78%
18 1909-12-18 59.8 @ Derry Celtic 5 1486 55.45% Glentoran 4 1526 18.20% 26.35%
19 1909-12-04 58.8 Glentoran 1 1464 10.63% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1528 63.59% 25.79%
20 1910-01-22 57.6 @ Linfield 0 1505 61.15% Derry Celtic 0 1476 12.83% 26.03%
21 1909-09-18 57.5 Belfast Celtic 1 1459 11.66% @ Shelbourne 0 1506 62.43% 25.91%
22 1909-09-25 57.5 Lisburn Distillery 1 1516 16.84% @ Belfast Celtic 0 1491 56.86% 26.29%
23 1909-12-25 57.3 Belfast Celtic 1 1534 19.04% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1485 54.58% 26.38%
24 1910-01-22 56.4 Cliftonville 4 1551 20.10% @ Glentoran 1 1492 53.49% 26.41%
25 1910-01-15 55.5 @ Shelbourne 0 1439 54.67% Glentoran 0 1487 18.95% 26.38%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1910-01-22 34.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1462 61.08% Shelbourne 0 1435 12.89% 26.03%
2 1909-12-18 37.1 @ Belfast Celtic 5 1493 60.22% Shelbourne 0 1477 13.68% 26.10%
3 1909-10-02 38.2 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1462 58.59% Glentoran 0 1466 15.20% 26.20%
4 1909-12-11 38.3 @ Glentoran 6 1497 62.65% Bohemian 1 1446 11.46% 25.89%
5 1909-10-16 39.0 @ Derry Celtic 2 1440 55.35% Belfast Celtic 0 1481 18.29% 26.35%
6 1909-10-16 40.2 @ Glentoran 2 1447 54.22% Shelbourne 0 1499 19.38% 26.39%
7 1909-10-02 40.5 @ Shelbourne 4 1478 60.24% Derry Celtic 1 1461 13.67% 26.10%
8 1909-09-11 40.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1533 62.07% Derry Celtic 0 1491 11.99% 25.94%
9 1909-12-25 41.4 @ Glentoran 4 1515 55.77% Linfield 0 1552 17.90% 26.34%
10 1909-09-18 42.7 @ Glentoran 1 1462 57.82% Derry Celtic 0 1476 15.93% 26.25%
11 1909-10-23 43.3 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1459 56.50% Bohemian 0 1487 17.19% 26.31%
12 1910-01-15 43.5 @ Cliftonville 1 1544 64.24% Lisburn Distillery 0 1469 10.05% 25.71%
13 1909-10-23 43.8 @ Cliftonville 1 1557 64.94% Glentoran 0 1470 9.45% 25.62%
14 1909-12-18 43.9 @ Bohemian 1 1417 51.20% Lisburn Distillery 0 1499 22.34% 26.46%
15 1909-10-02 44.3 @ Cliftonville 4 1531 60.48% Bohemian 1 1512 13.44% 26.08%
16 1910-01-08 44.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1457 54.12% Linfield 0 1510 19.49% 26.39%
17 1909-09-04 45.0 @ Derry Celtic 3 1474 57.46% Bohemian 1 1491 16.28% 26.26%
18 1909-12-25 45.1 @ Cliftonville 1 1551 62.95% Derry Celtic 0 1496 11.19% 25.86%
19 1909-12-11 45.4 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1464 48.05% Cliftonville 0 1573 25.45% 26.50%
20 1909-09-11 47.4 @ Bohemian 2 1474 59.12% Glentoran 1 1472 14.71% 26.17%
21 1909-09-11 47.6 @ Cliftonville 2 1509 62.12% Belfast Celtic 1 1467 11.94% 25.94%
22 1909-09-25 48.5 @ Linfield 2 1538 63.62% Glentoran 1 1473 10.60% 25.78%
23 1909-10-02 49.1 @ Linfield 3 1545 58.95% Lisburn Distillery 1 1545 14.86% 26.18%
24 1909-12-04 49.1 @ Cliftonville 4 1564 65.23% Shelbourne 2 1472 9.20% 25.57%
25 1910-01-15 50.7 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1632 68.24% Derry Celtic 1 1481 6.73% 25.03%