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1938-39 Irish League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Belfast Celtic

40 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Glenavon

6.35 points above expected

28 points · 21.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Coleraine

7.44 points below expected

9 points · 16.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 26 19 2 5 40 97 32 +65 40.02 -0.02
2 Ballymena United 26 15 5 6 35 63 54 +9 30.31 +4.69
3 Derry City 26 15 3 8 33 84 47 +37 33.43 -0.43
4 Portadown 26 15 3 8 33 84 56 +28 32.81 +0.19
5 Linfield 26 14 2 10 30 58 40 +18 35.29 -5.29
6 Glentoran 26 14 1 11 29 65 69 -4 27.79 +1.21
7 Glenavon 26 12 4 10 28 67 57 +10 21.65 +6.35
8 Ards 26 11 6 9 28 63 66 -3 21.97 +6.03
9 Newry Town 26 9 8 9 26 43 48 -5 26.69 -0.69
10 Lisburn Distillery 26 9 4 13 22 53 56 -3 23.82 -1.82
11 Larne 26 8 4 14 20 45 73 -28 17.80 +2.20
12 Bangor 26 6 7 13 19 37 71 -34 21.54 -2.54
13 Cliftonville 26 5 2 19 12 38 81 -43 14.44 -2.44
14 Coleraine 26 3 3 20 9 40 87 -47 16.44 -7.44

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glenavon 28 21.65 +6.35
2 Ards 28 21.97 +6.03
3 Ballymena United 35 30.31 +4.69
4 Larne 20 17.80 +2.20
5 Glentoran 29 27.79 +1.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Coleraine 9 16.44 -7.44
2 Linfield 30 35.29 -5.29
3 Bangor 19 21.54 -2.54
4 Cliftonville 12 14.44 -2.44
5 Lisburn Distillery 22 23.82 -1.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Derry City 8 Dec 3 – Jan 7 1 in 137
2 Glentoran 6 Oct 15 – Nov 19 1 in 41
3 Lisburn Distillery 4 Dec 27 – Jan 14 1 in 35
4 Belfast Celtic 7 Sep 3 – Oct 22 1 in 29
5 Ballymena United 4 Sep 17 – Oct 15 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 8 Dec 17 – Jan 28 1 in 194
2 Glentoran 4 Dec 26 – Jan 4 1 in 28
3 Lisburn Distillery 3 Sep 17 – Oct 1 1 in 25
4 Cliftonville 9 Oct 15 – Dec 10 1 in 25
5 Ballymena United 2 Jan 7 – Jan 14 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ards 8 Aug 27 – Oct 22 1 in 154
2 Cliftonville 3 Dec 27 – Jan 7 1 in 44
3 Newry Town 6 Oct 29 – Dec 3 1 in 39
4 Larne 3 Nov 26 – Dec 10 1 in 35
5 Derry City 9 Dec 3 – Jan 14 1 in 27

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 6 Sep 3 – Oct 15 1 in 40
2 Bangor 7 Nov 12 – Dec 24 1 in 40
3 Newry Town 6 Sep 10 – Oct 22 1 in 36
4 Linfield 4 Sep 17 – Oct 15 1 in 27
5 Coleraine 8 Dec 17 – Jan 28 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Belfast Celtic 1822 40 +7 7 7.7 -0.7
Ballymena United 1581 35 +11 6 4.3 +1.7
Derry City 1677 33 +29 7 5.4 +1.6
Portadown 1652 33 +4 6 6.2 -0.2
Linfield 1653 30 -41 3 7.0 -4.0
Glentoran 1500 29 -16 4 5.5 -1.5
Ards 1435 28 +12 6 4.6 +1.4
Glenavon 1455 28 +3 4 4.1 -0.1
Newry Town 1490 26 -16 6 5.1 +0.9
Lisburn Distillery 1481 22 +46 8 5.1 +2.9
Larne 1348 20 +2 4 4.0 +0.0
Bangor 1390 19 -5 4 3.9 +0.1
Cliftonville 1269 12 +35 5 2.4 +2.6
Coleraine 1246 9 -62 0 4.4 -4.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN BC CLI COL DC GLE GLE LAR LIN LD NT POR
Ards —
0-1-1
2.10
1-1-0
2.69
0-0-2
0.92
1-0-1
3.77
1-1-0
3.67
1-0-1
1.52
2-0-0
2.64
1-0-1
2.34
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
1.42
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
2.19
0-1-1
1.75
Ballymena United
1-1-0
3.60
 —
0-1-1
3.86
1-0-1
1.60
2-0-0
4.45
2-0-0
4.28
2-0-0
2.44
0-1-1
4.00
2-0-0
3.07
1-1-0
4.24
2-0-0
2.23
1-1-0
3.42
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.63
Bangor
0-1-1
3.00
1-1-0
1.84
 —
0-0-2
1.01
2-0-0
3.65
0-1-1
3.45
0-0-2
1.38
0-2-0
3.02
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
1.25
0-1-1
2.63
1-0-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.43
Belfast Celtic
2-0-0
4.80
1-0-1
4.11
2-0-0
4.71
 —
2-0-0
5.18
2-0-0
5.00
0-1-1
3.79
1-0-1
4.86
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
5.10
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
4.51
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.82
Cliftonville
1-0-1
1.92
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-2
2.04
0-0-2
0.56
 —
2-0-0
2.51
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
1.41
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
0.85
1-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
1.42
0-0-2
0.95
Coleraine
0-1-1
2.02
0-0-2
1.43
1-1-0
2.24
0-0-2
0.74
0-0-2
3.18
 —
0-0-2
1.13
1-0-1
2.03
0-0-2
1.57
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
0.93
0-0-2
1.88
0-1-1
1.67
1-0-1
1.15
Derry City
1-0-1
4.18
0-0-2
3.25
2-0-0
4.32
1-1-0
1.91
2-0-0
4.62
2-0-0
4.57
 —
1-0-1
4.05
1-0-1
3.41
1-0-1
4.54
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
3.72
0-1-1
3.88
1-0-1
2.93
Glenavon
0-0-2
3.05
1-1-0
1.69
0-2-0
2.67
1-0-1
0.87
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
1.65
 —
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
1.44
2-0-0
2.70
1-1-0
2.28
1-0-1
1.61
Glentoran
1-0-1
3.35
0-0-2
2.62
2-0-0
3.58
0-0-2
1.23
1-0-1
4.29
2-0-0
4.13
1-0-1
2.29
2-0-0
3.41
 —
2-0-0
4.12
1-0-1
1.90
2-0-0
3.11
0-1-1
3.03
0-0-2
2.50
Larne
0-1-1
2.39
0-1-1
1.46
1-1-0
2.23
0-1-1
0.64
2-0-0
3.23
2-0-0
3.16
1-0-1
1.17
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
1.57
 —
0-0-2
0.96
0-0-2
2.16
0-0-2
1.85
1-0-1
1.19
Linfield
1-0-1
4.29
0-0-2
3.46
1-0-1
4.45
1-0-1
2.31
1-1-0
4.87
2-0-0
4.79
0-1-1
3.23
1-0-1
4.27
1-0-1
3.79
2-0-0
4.76
 —
2-0-0
4.06
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
3.20
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
3.06
1-0-1
1.20
1-0-1
4.00
2-0-0
3.82
0-0-2
1.97
0-0-2
2.99
0-0-2
2.58
2-0-0
3.53
0-0-2
1.64
 —
1-1-0
2.45
0-1-1
1.96
Newry Town
0-1-1
3.50
1-0-1
2.55
1-0-1
3.49
0-0-2
1.30
1-1-0
4.28
1-1-0
4.03
1-1-0
1.81
0-1-1
3.41
1-1-0
2.65
2-0-0
3.84
1-0-1
1.86
0-1-1
3.24
 —
0-1-1
2.30
Portadown
1-1-0
3.95
2-0-0
3.06
1-0-1
4.27
0-0-2
1.88
2-0-0
4.77
1-0-1
4.56
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
4.09
2-0-0
3.19
1-0-1
4.52
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.74
1-1-0
3.39
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.74 +4.0
Allowed 0.72 -4.8
Differential 0.87 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%2.75%2.75%2.20%1.92%2.47%15.93%
12.75%4.95%5.49%3.30%2.47%3.57%22.53%
22.75%5.49%3.85%4.40%3.02%4.12%23.63%
32.20%3.30%4.40%1.65%2.75%0.82%15.11%
41.92%2.47%3.02%2.75%0.55%0.55%11.26%
5+2.47%3.57%4.12%0.82%0.55%—11.54%
Total15.93%22.53%23.63%15.11%11.26%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.30 2.30 +0.00
SD 1.87 1.87 2.87
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 10 10 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%3.85%——3.85%11.54%
1—11.54%3.85%——3.85%19.23%
23.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%—7.69%23.08%
3—3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%—15.38%
4—3.85%15.38%—3.85%—23.08%
5+——7.69%———7.69%
Total3.85%26.92%38.46%7.69%7.69%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.42 2.54 -0.12
SD 1.53 1.90 2.58
CV 0.63 0.75 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%————7.69%11.54%
111.54%7.69%—3.85%——23.08%
2—15.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%30.77%
37.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+——7.69%7.69%——15.38%
Total26.92%26.92%11.54%19.23%3.85%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.42 2.08 +0.35
SD 1.96 2.28 3.16
CV 0.81 1.10 —
Max 7 8 +5
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%7.69%——3.85%23.08%
1—11.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%11.54%34.62%
2—7.69%3.85%7.69%3.85%—23.08%
33.85%—7.69%3.85%——15.38%
4———3.85%——3.85%
5+———————
Total11.54%23.08%23.08%19.23%7.69%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 2.73 -1.31
SD 1.14 2.46 2.80
CV 0.80 0.90 —
Max 4 10 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%————3.85%
13.85%3.85%11.54%———19.23%
27.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
33.85%7.69%7.69%—3.85%—23.08%
4—3.85%—3.85%——7.69%
5+3.85%23.08%————26.92%
Total19.23%50.00%23.08%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.73 1.23 +2.50
SD 2.92 0.95 3.20
CV 0.78 0.77 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—3.85%19.23%3.85%—34.62%
1——15.38%—3.85%7.69%26.92%
2———3.85%3.85%7.69%15.38%
3——3.85%—3.85%—7.69%
43.85%——7.69%——11.54%
5+——3.85%———3.85%
Total11.54%—26.92%30.77%15.38%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 3.12 -1.65
SD 1.53 2.10 2.62
CV 1.05 0.68 —
Max 5 10 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%——15.38%—23.08%
1—3.85%7.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%26.92%
23.85%——3.85%3.85%19.23%30.77%
3—3.85%——3.85%3.85%11.54%
4—3.85%——3.85%—7.69%
5+———————
Total7.69%15.38%7.69%11.54%30.77%26.92%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 3.35 -1.81
SD 1.21 1.90 2.19
CV 0.78 0.57 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%————7.69%
1—3.85%—3.85%—3.85%11.54%
2—3.85%3.85%3.85%7.69%—19.23%
3—3.85%3.85%—3.85%3.85%15.38%
43.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%——19.23%
5+15.38%7.69%3.85%———26.92%
Total23.08%30.77%15.38%11.54%11.54%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.23 1.81 +1.42
SD 1.92 1.60 2.93
CV 0.60 0.89 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
1—7.69%—3.85%3.85%—15.38%
2—15.38%7.69%11.54%7.69%—42.31%
3——7.69%—3.85%—11.54%
4———3.85%——3.85%
5+3.85%3.85%11.54%———19.23%
Total3.85%26.92%30.77%23.08%15.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.58 2.19 +0.38
SD 1.77 1.13 2.37
CV 0.69 0.52 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%——3.85%—11.54%
1——7.69%7.69%—7.69%23.08%
23.85%3.85%———3.85%11.54%
3—3.85%11.54%—7.69%—23.08%
43.85%—11.54%3.85%——19.23%
5+——3.85%3.85%3.85%—11.54%
Total11.54%11.54%34.62%15.38%15.38%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 2.65 -0.15
SD 1.61 1.98 2.63
CV 0.64 0.75 —
Max 5 9 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%3.85%—3.85%11.54%26.92%
13.85%3.85%—7.69%3.85%3.85%23.08%
2——7.69%3.85%—3.85%15.38%
33.85%—7.69%—3.85%3.85%19.23%
43.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%——15.38%
5+———————
Total15.38%11.54%23.08%15.38%11.54%23.08%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.81 -1.08
SD 1.46 2.02 2.74
CV 0.84 0.72 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%————7.69%
17.69%3.85%11.54%3.85%3.85%—30.77%
23.85%7.69%—7.69%3.85%3.85%26.92%
33.85%—3.85%———7.69%
43.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
5+7.69%—————7.69%
Total30.77%26.92%19.23%11.54%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 1.54 +0.69
SD 1.48 1.56 2.38
CV 0.66 1.01 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%11.54%3.85%—3.85%26.92%
13.85%3.85%3.85%—3.85%3.85%19.23%
27.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%—26.92%
3———3.85%——3.85%
4—————7.69%7.69%
5+3.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
Total19.23%23.08%23.08%11.54%7.69%15.38%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.04 2.15 -0.12
SD 2.01 1.78 2.76
CV 0.99 0.83 —
Max 7 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
17.69%7.69%7.69%—7.69%3.85%34.62%
2——7.69%—3.85%—11.54%
3—11.54%3.85%3.85%——19.23%
4———7.69%——7.69%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total19.23%26.92%23.08%15.38%11.54%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.85 -0.19
SD 1.44 1.43 1.86
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————3.85%3.85%
1——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
27.69%3.85%7.69%7.69%—7.69%34.62%
37.69%7.69%—3.85%3.85%—23.08%
43.85%—3.85%———7.69%
5+—3.85%15.38%—3.85%—23.08%
Total19.23%15.38%30.77%15.38%7.69%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.23 2.15 +1.08
SD 2.05 1.67 2.84
CV 0.63 0.77 —
Max 9 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Belfast Celtic 1822 40 40.02 -0.02 52.0% 31 33 37 40 43 46 48
Derry City 1677 33 33.43 -0.43 50.0% 25 28 31 33 36 38 41
Linfield 1653 30 35.29 -5.29 8.0% 26 29 33 35 38 41 45
Portadown 1652 33 32.81 +0.19 56.0% 21 25 30 33 36 38 45
Ballymena United 1581 35 30.31 +4.69 91.0% 22 23 27 30 33 37 41
Glentoran 1500 29 27.79 +1.21 66.0% 19 21 25 28 30 34 39
Newry Town 1490 26 26.69 -0.69 49.0% 15 19 24 27 30 34 37
Lisburn Distillery 1481 22 23.82 -1.82 37.0% 15 17 21 24 27 30 35
Glenavon 1455 28 21.65 +6.35 94.0% 11 14 19 22 25 29 30
Ards 1435 28 21.97 +6.03 93.0% 12 16 19 22 24 29 32
Bangor 1390 19 21.54 -2.54 33.0% 15 16 19 22 24 27 30
Larne 1348 20 17.80 +2.20 77.0% 7 12 15 18 20 25 31
Cliftonville 1269 12 14.44 -2.44 33.0% 6 7 11 14 17 22 24
Coleraine 1246 9 16.44 -7.44 3.0% 9 10 14 16 19 24 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+29.12%
Strong Edge
57.14%14.84%28.02%
Elo Value
Home Edge
142 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0104.19400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.86 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.73+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.8
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
73%
Belfast Celtic, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.19/gm
Tight Race
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.16 * Some Luck: 3.16 to 4.74 * Lucky: 4.74 to 6.32 * Wild Swing: 6.32 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.14 * Close: 1.14 to 1.71 * Off: 1.71 to 2.28 * Way Off: 2.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.82 points
Some Luck
03.9510
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.29
Close
01.433
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
94.00%
Glenavon
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
3.00%
Coleraine
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 163.49
1.86
Moderate Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
79%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
46%
Some Drama
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
34%
Very Frequent
0%39%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.93
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.87
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.38
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.81
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.082
Well Within Noise
00.1100.25

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Belfast Celtic73.00%14.00%9.00%4.00%——————————
Ballymena United1.00%10.00%10.00%17.00%20.00%21.00%13.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%———
Derry City3.00%23.00%24.00%30.00%12.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%——————
Portadown7.00%19.00%22.00%17.00%21.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%4.00%—————
Linfield15.00%32.00%26.00%12.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%———————
Glentoran1.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%17.00%21.00%12.00%16.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%———
Glenavon————3.00%6.00%7.00%15.00%15.00%22.00%15.00%10.00%3.00%4.00%
Ards———1.00%3.00%4.00%14.00%12.00%17.00%18.00%11.00%14.00%4.00%2.00%
Newry Town——3.00%8.00%11.00%16.00%25.00%18.00%5.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%—
Lisburn Distillery——1.00%2.00%2.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%16.00%10.00%14.00%7.00%5.00%—
Larne————1.00%1.00%2.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%13.00%24.00%24.00%15.00%
Bangor———1.00%1.00%3.00%5.00%10.00%21.00%15.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%2.00%
Cliftonville———————1.00%2.00%5.00%4.00%12.00%25.00%51.00%
Coleraine——————1.00%2.00%3.00%6.00%14.00%19.00%29.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Belfast Celtic 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Derry City 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Newry Town 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1938-08-20 Glenavon D 2-261.1 1443 1377 68.45% 15.36% 16.19%+1.20 -1.4 1
1938-08-20 @ Bangor D 2-261.1 1377 1443 16.19% 15.36% 68.45%-1.20 +1.4 1
1938-08-20 Cliftonville W 3-035.5 1762 1309 85.54% 12.29% 2.17%+3.91 +1.0 2
1938-08-20 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-335.5 1309 1762 2.17% 12.29% 85.54%-3.91 -1.0 0
1938-08-20 Ballymena United L 3-573.2 1634 1594 66.16% 15.46% 18.38%+1.01 -13.4 0
1938-08-20 @ Derry City W 5-373.2 1594 1634 18.38% 15.46% 66.16%-1.01 +13.3 2
1938-08-20 Larne W 3-136.8 1530 1337 76.81% 14.63% 8.56%+2.09 +2.4 2
1938-08-20 @ Glentoran L 1-336.8 1337 1530 8.56% 14.63% 76.81%-2.09 -2.4 0
1938-08-20 Lisburn Distillery W 1-045.5 1690 1478 77.72% 14.50% 7.78%+2.22 +1.3 2
1938-08-20 @ Linfield L 0-145.5 1478 1690 7.78% 14.50% 77.72%-2.22 -1.3 0
1938-08-20 Coleraine W 3-136.2 1518 1328 76.68% 14.65% 8.68%+2.07 +2.4 2
1938-08-20 @ Newry Town L 1-336.2 1328 1518 8.68% 14.65% 76.68%-2.07 -2.4 0
1938-08-20 Ards W 6-240.6 1616 1381 78.81% 14.32% 6.88%+2.38 +3.0 2
1938-08-20 @ Portadown L 2-640.6 1381 1616 6.88% 14.32% 78.81%-2.38 -3.0 0
1938-08-22 Bangor W 2-038.3 1378 1442 55.11% 15.71% 29.18%+0.28 +8.8 2
1938-08-22 @ Ards L 0-238.3 1442 1378 29.18% 15.71% 55.11%-0.28 -8.8 1
1938-08-22 Newry Town W 1-046.6 1608 1521 70.09% 15.26% 14.64%+1.34 +2.5 4
1938-08-22 @ Ballymena United L 0-146.6 1521 1608 14.64% 15.26% 70.09%-1.34 -2.5 2
1938-08-22 Derry City L 1-540.0 1308 1621 23.13% 15.21% 61.67%-1.46 -11.2 0
1938-08-22 @ Cliftonville W 5-140.0 1621 1308 61.67% 15.21% 23.13%+1.46 +11.2 2
1938-08-22 Glentoran L 3-552.3 1325 1533 35.64% 15.61% 48.75%-0.72 -7.6 0
1938-08-22 @ Coleraine W 5-352.3 1533 1325 48.75% 15.61% 35.64%+0.72 +7.6 4
1938-08-22 Belfast Celtic W 2-166.2 1379 1763 16.55% 14.78% 68.66%-1.97 +9.4 3
1938-08-22 @ Glenavon L 1-266.2 1763 1379 68.66% 14.78% 16.55%+1.97 -9.4 2
1938-08-22 Linfield L 1-443.7 1334 1692 18.86% 14.96% 66.18%-1.78 -7.2 0
1938-08-22 @ Larne W 4-143.7 1692 1334 66.18% 14.96% 18.86%+1.78 +7.2 4
1938-08-22 Portadown D 2-270.3 1477 1619 44.70% 15.72% 39.58%-0.27 -0.1 1
1938-08-22 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-270.3 1619 1477 39.58% 15.72% 44.70%+0.27 +0.1 3
1938-08-24 Cliftonville W 7-234.8 1610 1297 81.76% 13.66% 4.58%+2.93 +2.4 6
1938-08-24 @ Ballymena United L 2-734.8 1297 1610 4.58% 13.66% 81.76%-2.93 -2.4 0
1938-08-24 Coleraine W 4-032.4 1699 1318 83.79% 13.02% 3.19%+3.41 +1.9 6
1938-08-24 @ Linfield L 0-432.4 1318 1699 3.19% 13.02% 83.79%-3.41 -1.9 0
1938-08-24 Glentoran W 5-145.2 1518 1540 60.01% 15.64% 24.34%+0.58 +11.8 4
1938-08-24 @ Newry Town L 1-545.2 1540 1518 24.34% 15.64% 60.01%-0.58 -11.8 4
1938-08-25 Lisburn Distillery D 1-159.9 1433 1477 57.51% 15.69% 26.81%+0.42 -1.1 2
1938-08-25 @ Bangor D 1-159.9 1477 1433 26.81% 15.69% 57.51%-0.42 +1.1 2
1938-08-25 Ards W 8-139.2 1754 1387 83.41% 13.16% 3.43%+3.31 +2.9 4
1938-08-25 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-839.2 1387 1754 3.43% 13.16% 83.41%-3.31 -2.9 2
1938-08-25 Glenavon W 3-247.4 1632 1388 79.17% 14.25% 6.58%+2.44 +1.0 4
1938-08-25 @ Derry City L 2-347.4 1388 1632 6.58% 14.25% 79.17%-2.44 -1.0 3
1938-08-25 Larne W 4-030.7 1620 1327 81.05% 13.85% 5.10%+2.78 +3.1 5
1938-08-25 @ Portadown L 0-430.7 1327 1620 5.10% 13.85% 81.05%-2.78 -3.1 0
1938-08-27 Derry City W 3-156.0 1384 1633 30.26% 15.48% 54.26%-1.02 +13.0 4
1938-08-27 @ Ards L 1-356.0 1633 1384 54.26% 15.48% 30.26%+1.02 -13.0 4
1938-08-27 Newry Town D 0-055.0 1295 1530 31.96% 15.53% 52.51%-0.92 +0.8 1
1938-08-27 @ Cliftonville D 0-055.0 1530 1295 52.51% 15.53% 31.96%+0.92 -0.8 5
1938-08-27 Portadown W 3-155.1 1316 1623 23.67% 15.23% 61.10%-1.42 +14.5 2
1938-08-27 @ Coleraine L 1-355.1 1623 1316 61.10% 15.23% 23.67%+1.42 -14.5 5
1938-08-27 Ballymena United W 7-046.8 1387 1613 33.20% 15.56% 51.24%-0.85 +45.8 5
1938-08-27 @ Glenavon L 0-746.8 1613 1387 51.24% 15.56% 33.20%+0.85 -45.8 6
1938-08-27 Linfield W 3-265.2 1528 1701 40.46% 15.68% 43.86%-0.48 +5.9 6
1938-08-27 @ Glentoran L 2-365.2 1701 1528 43.86% 15.68% 40.46%+0.48 -5.9 6
1938-08-27 Bangor W 1-041.1 1324 1432 49.45% 15.74% 34.82%-0.03 +5.4 2
1938-08-27 @ Larne L 0-141.1 1432 1324 34.82% 15.74% 49.45%+0.03 -5.4 2
1938-08-27 Belfast Celtic W 1-062.2 1478 1757 26.74% 15.36% 57.90%-1.23 +8.5 4
1938-08-27 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-162.2 1757 1478 57.90% 15.36% 26.74%+1.23 -8.5 4
1938-09-03 Ards D 1-162.1 1567 1397 75.56% 14.79% 9.65%+1.92 -2.4 7
1938-09-03 @ Ballymena United D 1-162.1 1397 1567 9.65% 14.79% 75.56%-1.92 +2.4 5
1938-09-03 Coleraine D 0-053.6 1427 1330 70.81% 15.22% 13.98%+1.41 -2.3 3
1938-09-03 @ Bangor D 0-053.6 1330 1427 13.98% 15.22% 70.81%-1.41 +2.3 3
1938-09-03 Larne W 6-137.5 1748 1330 84.75% 12.65% 2.60%+3.67 +1.6 6
1938-09-03 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-637.5 1330 1748 2.60% 12.65% 84.75%-3.67 -1.6 2
1938-09-03 Glenavon L 2-351.0 1296 1433 45.45% 15.73% 38.82%-0.23 -6.1 1
1938-09-03 @ Cliftonville W 3-251.0 1433 1296 38.82% 15.73% 45.45%+0.23 +6.1 7
1938-09-03 Lisburn Distillery W 5-038.0 1620 1486 73.36% 15.01% 11.62%+1.67 +8.8 6
1938-09-03 @ Derry City L 0-538.0 1486 1620 11.62% 15.01% 73.36%-1.67 -8.8 4
1938-09-03 Linfield W 1-057.6 1529 1695 41.45% 15.69% 42.86%-0.43 +6.5 7
1938-09-03 @ Newry Town L 0-157.6 1695 1529 42.86% 15.69% 41.45%+0.43 -6.5 6
1938-09-03 Glentoran W 3-148.6 1608 1534 69.08% 15.32% 15.59%+1.25 +4.3 7
1938-09-03 @ Portadown L 1-348.6 1534 1608 15.59% 15.32% 69.08%-1.25 -4.3 6
1938-09-10 Cliftonville W 5-236.6 1399 1290 71.78% 15.15% 13.08%+1.50 +4.4 7
1938-09-10 @ Ards L 2-536.6 1290 1399 13.08% 15.15% 71.78%-1.50 -4.4 1
1938-09-10 Belfast Celtic L 0-144.8 1333 1750 14.16% 14.56% 71.28%-2.20 -2.4 3
1938-09-10 @ Coleraine W 1-044.8 1750 1333 71.28% 14.56% 14.16%+2.20 +2.4 8
1938-09-10 Newry Town D 2-265.9 1439 1536 50.88% 15.74% 33.39%+0.05 -0.4 8
1938-09-10 @ Glenavon D 2-265.9 1536 1439 33.39% 15.74% 50.88%-0.05 +0.4 8
1938-09-10 Bangor W 3-247.2 1530 1424 71.48% 15.17% 13.35%+1.47 +2.0 8
1938-09-10 @ Glentoran L 2-347.2 1424 1530 13.35% 15.17% 71.48%-1.47 -2.0 3
1938-09-10 Derry City W 4-259.6 1328 1629 24.34% 15.26% 60.40%-1.38 +12.9 4
1938-09-10 @ Larne L 2-459.6 1629 1328 60.40% 15.26% 24.34%+1.38 -12.9 6
1938-09-10 Portadown W 5-043.6 1688 1612 69.23% 15.31% 15.45%+1.26 +11.5 8
1938-09-10 @ Linfield L 0-543.6 1612 1688 15.45% 15.31% 69.23%-1.26 -11.5 7
1938-09-10 Ballymena United D 0-062.2 1478 1564 52.24% 15.73% 32.02%+0.12 -0.8 5
1938-09-10 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-062.2 1564 1478 32.02% 15.73% 52.24%-0.12 +0.8 8
1938-09-17 Larne W 7-339.4 1565 1341 78.31% 14.40% 7.29%+2.31 +2.9 10
1938-09-17 @ Ballymena United L 3-739.4 1341 1565 7.29% 14.40% 78.31%-2.31 -2.9 4
1938-09-17 Linfield W 3-266.6 1422 1700 26.89% 15.37% 57.74%-1.22 +7.6 5
1938-09-17 @ Bangor L 2-366.6 1700 1422 57.74% 15.37% 26.89%+1.22 -7.5 8
1938-09-17 Glentoran W 4-358.6 1752 1532 78.13% 14.43% 7.44%+2.28 +1.1 10
1938-09-17 @ Belfast Celtic L 3-458.6 1532 1752 7.44% 14.43% 78.13%-2.28 -1.1 8
1938-09-17 Lisburn Distillery W 3-251.9 1285 1477 37.72% 15.64% 46.63%-0.62 +6.2 3
1938-09-17 @ Cliftonville L 2-351.9 1477 1285 46.63% 15.64% 37.72%+0.62 -6.2 5
1938-09-17 Coleraine W 4-136.3 1616 1330 80.80% 13.90% 5.29%+2.74 +2.1 8
1938-09-17 @ Derry City L 1-436.3 1330 1616 5.29% 13.90% 80.80%-2.74 -2.1 3
1938-09-17 Ards L 2-457.6 1438 1404 65.69% 15.48% 18.82%+0.97 -14.0 8
1938-09-17 @ Glenavon W 4-257.6 1404 1438 18.82% 15.48% 65.69%-0.97 +14.0 9
1938-09-17 Portadown D 2-271.6 1536 1601 55.01% 15.71% 29.27%+0.28 -0.7 9
1938-09-17 @ Newry Town D 2-271.6 1601 1536 29.27% 15.71% 55.01%-0.28 +0.7 8
1938-09-24 Newry Town W 4-252.4 1418 1536 48.10% 15.74% 36.17%-0.10 +8.2 11
1938-09-24 @ Ards L 2-452.4 1536 1418 36.17% 15.74% 48.10%+0.10 -8.2 9
1938-09-24 Ballymena United L 1-246.7 1328 1568 31.39% 15.51% 53.10%-0.95 -4.7 3
1938-09-24 @ Coleraine W 2-146.7 1568 1328 53.10% 15.51% 31.39%+0.95 +4.7 12
1938-09-24 Derry City W 4-257.9 1531 1618 52.21% 15.73% 32.06%+0.12 +7.4 10
1938-09-24 @ Glentoran L 2-457.9 1618 1531 32.06% 15.73% 52.21%-0.12 -7.4 8
1938-09-24 Cliftonville W 4-028.1 1338 1291 66.78% 15.44% 17.78%+1.06 +10.6 6
1938-09-24 @ Larne L 0-428.1 1291 1338 17.78% 15.44% 66.78%-1.06 -10.6 3
1938-09-24 Belfast Celtic L 1-267.0 1692 1753 55.43% 15.71% 28.86%+0.30 -7.7 8
1938-09-24 @ Linfield W 2-167.0 1753 1692 28.86% 15.71% 55.43%-0.30 +7.7 12
1938-09-24 Glenavon L 1-257.2 1471 1424 66.77% 15.44% 17.79%+1.06 -9.2 5
1938-09-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-157.2 1424 1471 17.79% 15.44% 66.77%-1.06 +9.2 10
1938-09-24 Bangor W 2-144.8 1602 1430 75.66% 14.77% 9.56%+1.94 +1.5 10
1938-09-24 @ Portadown L 1-244.8 1430 1602 9.56% 14.77% 75.66%-1.94 -1.6 5
1938-10-01 Lisburn Distillery W 4-247.0 1426 1462 58.46% 15.67% 25.87%+0.48 +6.1 13
1938-10-01 @ Ards L 2-447.0 1462 1426 25.87% 15.67% 58.46%-0.48 -6.1 5
1938-10-01 Glentoran W 1-047.4 1573 1538 65.68% 15.48% 18.83%+0.97 +3.1 14
1938-10-01 @ Ballymena United L 0-147.4 1538 1573 18.83% 15.48% 65.68%-0.97 -3.1 10
1938-10-01 Portadown W 2-152.6 1761 1603 74.87% 14.87% 10.26%+1.84 +1.7 14
1938-10-01 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-252.6 1603 1761 10.26% 14.87% 74.87%-1.84 -1.7 10
1938-10-01 Coleraine W 5-240.1 1281 1324 57.62% 15.68% 26.69%+0.43 +8.6 5
1938-10-01 @ Cliftonville L 2-540.1 1324 1281 26.69% 15.68% 57.62%-0.43 -8.6 3
1938-10-01 Linfield D 1-171.2 1610 1685 53.84% 15.72% 30.44%+0.21 -0.8 9
1938-10-01 @ Derry City D 1-171.2 1685 1610 30.44% 15.72% 53.84%-0.21 +0.8 9
1938-10-01 Larne W 4-346.4 1434 1349 69.95% 15.27% 14.78%+1.33 +2.2 12
1938-10-01 @ Glenavon L 3-446.4 1349 1434 14.78% 15.27% 69.95%-1.33 -2.2 6
1938-10-01 Bangor L 1-260.5 1528 1428 71.02% 15.20% 13.78%+1.43 -9.8 9
1938-10-01 @ Newry Town W 2-160.5 1428 1528 13.78% 15.20% 71.02%-1.43 +9.8 7
1938-10-15 Belfast Celtic L 1-351.9 1438 1763 21.88% 15.14% 62.98%-1.55 -5.8 7
1938-10-15 @ Bangor W 3-151.9 1763 1438 62.98% 15.14% 21.88%+1.55 +5.8 16
1938-10-15 Glenavon W 4-140.9 1315 1436 47.71% 15.73% 36.55%-0.12 +13.0 5
1938-10-15 @ Coleraine L 1-440.9 1436 1315 36.55% 15.73% 47.71%+0.12 -13.0 12
1938-10-15 Cliftonville W 4-239.0 1535 1289 79.25% 14.23% 6.52%+2.46 +1.6 12
1938-10-15 @ Glentoran L 2-439.0 1289 1535 6.52% 14.23% 79.25%-2.46 -1.6 5
1938-10-15 Ards D 2-260.1 1346 1432 52.37% 15.73% 31.90%+0.13 -0.5 7
1938-10-15 @ Larne D 2-260.1 1432 1346 31.90% 15.73% 52.37%-0.13 +0.5 14
1938-10-15 Ballymena United L 1-269.9 1685 1576 71.76% 15.15% 13.09%+1.50 -9.9 9
1938-10-15 @ Linfield W 2-169.9 1576 1685 13.09% 15.15% 71.76%-1.50 +9.9 16
1938-10-15 Newry Town D 3-370.0 1455 1518 55.31% 15.71% 28.98%+0.29 -0.6 6
1938-10-15 @ Lisburn Distillery D 3-370.0 1518 1455 28.98% 15.71% 55.31%-0.29 +0.6 10
1938-10-15 Derry City W 5-149.2 1602 1610 61.48% 15.61% 22.91%+0.67 +11.2 12
1938-10-15 @ Portadown L 1-549.2 1610 1602 22.91% 15.61% 61.48%-0.67 -11.2 9
1938-10-22 Coleraine D 4-467.2 1433 1328 71.41% 15.17% 13.42%+1.47 -1.1 15
1938-10-22 @ Ards D 4-467.2 1328 1433 13.42% 15.17% 71.41%-1.47 +1.2 6
1938-10-22 Portadown L 2-467.4 1586 1613 59.43% 15.66% 24.92%+0.54 -12.7 16
1938-10-22 @ Ballymena United W 4-267.4 1613 1586 24.92% 15.66% 59.43%-0.54 +12.7 14
1938-10-22 Linfield L 0-336.5 1288 1675 16.32% 14.76% 68.91%-1.99 -7.4 5
1938-10-22 @ Cliftonville W 3-036.5 1675 1288 68.91% 14.76% 16.32%+1.99 +7.4 11
1938-10-22 Bangor W 8-035.9 1598 1432 75.35% 14.81% 9.84%+1.90 +11.6 11
1938-10-22 @ Derry City L 0-835.9 1432 1598 9.84% 14.81% 75.35%-1.90 -11.6 7
1938-10-22 Glentoran L 2-358.2 1423 1537 48.61% 15.74% 35.65%-0.07 -6.5 12
1938-10-22 @ Glenavon W 3-258.2 1537 1423 35.65% 15.74% 48.61%+0.07 +6.5 14
1938-10-22 Larne W 6-028.4 1455 1346 71.73% 15.15% 13.12%+1.50 +11.7 8
1938-10-22 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-628.4 1346 1455 13.12% 15.15% 71.73%-1.50 -11.7 7
1938-10-22 Belfast Celtic L 0-252.3 1518 1769 30.10% 15.47% 54.43%-1.03 -9.0 10
1938-10-22 @ Newry Town W 2-052.3 1769 1518 54.43% 15.47% 30.10%+1.03 +9.0 18
1938-10-29 Ballymena United D 3-370.7 1421 1573 43.30% 15.71% 40.99%-0.34 -0.0 8
1938-10-29 @ Bangor D 3-370.7 1573 1421 40.99% 15.71% 43.30%+0.34 +0.0 17
1938-10-29 Derry City L 3-480.2 1778 1610 75.42% 14.80% 9.78%+1.91 -9.7 18
1938-10-29 @ Belfast Celtic W 4-380.2 1610 1778 9.78% 14.80% 75.42%-1.91 +9.7 13
1938-10-29 Lisburn Distillery L 1-248.2 1329 1467 45.40% 15.73% 38.88%-0.23 -6.4 6
1938-10-29 @ Coleraine W 2-148.2 1467 1329 38.88% 15.73% 45.40%+0.23 +6.4 10
1938-10-29 Ards W 2-143.8 1543 1431 71.92% 15.14% 12.95%+1.52 +2.1 16
1938-10-29 @ Glentoran L 1-243.8 1431 1543 12.95% 15.14% 71.92%-1.52 -2.1 15
1938-10-29 Newry Town L 0-144.6 1334 1509 40.05% 15.68% 44.27%-0.50 -6.1 7
1938-10-29 @ Larne W 1-044.6 1509 1334 44.27% 15.68% 40.05%+0.50 +6.1 12
1938-10-29 Glenavon W 3-249.9 1683 1416 80.09% 14.06% 5.84%+2.60 +0.9 13
1938-10-29 @ Linfield L 2-349.9 1416 1683 5.84% 14.06% 80.09%-2.60 -0.9 12
1938-10-29 Cliftonville W 3-030.3 1625 1280 82.78% 13.37% 3.86%+3.16 +1.8 16
1938-10-29 @ Portadown L 0-330.3 1280 1625 3.86% 13.37% 82.78%-3.16 -1.8 5
1938-11-05 Linfield W 4-157.7 1429 1684 29.60% 15.46% 54.94%-1.05 +18.6 17
1938-11-05 @ Ards L 1-457.7 1684 1429 54.94% 15.46% 29.60%+1.05 -18.6 13
1938-11-05 Belfast Celtic L 0-851.8 1573 1768 37.32% 15.64% 47.04%-0.64 -39.5 17
1938-11-05 @ Ballymena United W 8-051.8 1768 1573 47.04% 15.64% 37.32%+0.64 +39.5 20
1938-11-05 Bangor L 1-246.4 1278 1421 44.73% 15.72% 39.55%-0.27 -6.3 5
1938-11-05 @ Cliftonville W 2-146.4 1421 1278 39.55% 15.72% 44.73%+0.27 +6.3 10
1938-11-05 Newry Town D 0-065.5 1620 1515 71.39% 15.17% 13.43%+1.46 -2.4 14
1938-11-05 @ Derry City D 0-065.5 1515 1620 13.43% 15.17% 71.39%-1.46 +2.4 13
1938-11-05 Portadown W 5-257.4 1415 1627 35.00% 15.60% 49.40%-0.76 +14.6 14
1938-11-05 @ Glenavon L 2-557.4 1627 1415 49.40% 15.60% 35.00%+0.76 -14.6 16
1938-11-05 Coleraine W 4-346.7 1328 1323 62.87% 15.58% 21.55%+0.77 +3.1 9
1938-11-05 @ Larne L 3-446.7 1323 1328 21.55% 15.58% 62.87%-0.77 -3.1 6
1938-11-05 Glentoran L 4-568.4 1473 1545 54.06% 15.72% 30.21%+0.22 -6.8 10
1938-11-05 @ Lisburn Distillery W 5-468.4 1545 1473 30.21% 15.72% 54.06%-0.22 +6.8 18
1938-11-12 Portadown D 3-373.2 1448 1613 41.54% 15.69% 42.77%-0.42 +0.0 18
1938-11-12 @ Ards D 3-373.2 1613 1448 42.77% 15.69% 41.54%+0.42 -0.0 17
1938-11-12 Derry City W 1-052.5 1534 1617 52.60% 15.73% 31.67%+0.14 +5.0 19
1938-11-12 @ Ballymena United L 0-152.5 1617 1534 31.67% 15.73% 52.60%-0.14 -5.0 14
1938-11-12 Belfast Celtic L 1-1038.8 1272 1807 7.83% 13.59% 78.58%-3.03 -8.3 5
1938-11-12 @ Cliftonville W 10-138.8 1807 1272 78.58% 13.59% 7.83%+3.03 +8.3 22
1938-11-12 Newry Town D 1-157.8 1320 1518 36.86% 15.63% 47.50%-0.66 +0.3 7
1938-11-12 @ Coleraine D 1-157.8 1518 1320 47.50% 15.63% 36.86%+0.66 -0.3 14
1938-11-12 Bangor D 1-158.3 1430 1427 62.62% 15.58% 21.79%+0.75 -1.4 15
1938-11-12 @ Glenavon D 1-158.3 1427 1430 21.79% 15.58% 62.62%-0.75 +1.4 11
1938-11-12 Glentoran L 2-547.1 1331 1552 33.82% 15.57% 50.61%-0.82 -10.5 9
1938-11-12 @ Larne W 5-247.1 1552 1331 50.61% 15.57% 33.82%+0.82 +10.5 20
1938-11-12 Linfield L 0-251.0 1466 1665 36.74% 15.63% 47.63%-0.67 -10.7 10
1938-11-12 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-051.0 1665 1466 47.63% 15.63% 36.74%+0.67 +10.7 15
1938-11-19 Ards D 1-158.9 1428 1448 60.25% 15.64% 24.11%+0.59 -1.3 12
1938-11-19 @ Bangor D 1-158.9 1448 1428 24.11% 15.64% 60.25%-0.59 +1.3 19
1938-11-19 Glenavon W 3-146.5 1816 1428 83.96% 12.96% 3.08%+3.45 +0.9 24
1938-11-19 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-346.5 1428 1816 3.08% 12.96% 83.96%-3.45 -0.9 15
1938-11-19 Cliftonville W 2-137.1 1612 1264 82.88% 13.33% 3.79%+3.18 +0.6 16
1938-11-19 @ Derry City L 1-237.1 1264 1612 3.79% 13.33% 82.88%-3.18 -0.6 5
1938-11-19 Coleraine W 4-029.1 1563 1320 79.12% 14.26% 6.63%+2.44 +4.1 22
1938-11-19 @ Glentoran L 0-429.1 1320 1563 6.63% 14.26% 79.12%-2.44 -4.1 7
1938-11-19 Larne W 5-031.2 1676 1321 83.07% 13.27% 3.66%+3.23 +2.8 17
1938-11-19 @ Linfield L 0-531.2 1321 1676 3.66% 13.27% 83.07%-3.23 -2.8 9
1938-11-19 Ballymena United W 3-148.5 1517 1539 60.07% 15.64% 24.28%+0.58 +6.4 16
1938-11-19 @ Newry Town L 1-348.5 1539 1517 24.28% 15.64% 60.07%-0.58 -6.5 19
1938-11-19 Lisburn Distillery W 6-453.8 1613 1455 74.83% 14.87% 10.30%+1.83 +2.4 19
1938-11-19 @ Portadown L 4-653.8 1455 1613 10.30% 14.87% 74.83%-1.83 -2.4 10
1938-11-26 Belfast Celtic L 2-357.8 1449 1817 17.98% 14.89% 67.13%-1.85 -2.7 19
1938-11-26 @ Ards W 3-257.8 1817 1449 67.13% 14.89% 17.98%+1.85 +2.7 26
1938-11-26 Ballymena United L 0-335.0 1263 1532 27.87% 15.40% 56.73%-1.16 -12.2 5
1938-11-26 @ Cliftonville W 3-035.0 1532 1263 56.73% 15.40% 27.87%+1.16 +12.2 21
1938-11-26 Linfield L 2-448.3 1316 1679 18.38% 14.92% 66.70%-1.81 -4.4 7
1938-11-26 @ Coleraine W 4-248.3 1679 1316 66.70% 14.92% 18.38%+1.81 +4.4 19
1938-11-26 Derry City W 3-260.3 1428 1613 38.61% 15.66% 45.73%-0.57 +6.1 17
1938-11-26 @ Glenavon L 2-360.3 1613 1428 45.73% 15.66% 38.61%+0.57 -6.1 16
1938-11-26 Newry Town D 0-064.0 1567 1524 66.45% 15.45% 18.10%+1.03 -1.9 23
1938-11-26 @ Glentoran D 0-064.0 1524 1567 18.10% 15.45% 66.45%-1.03 +1.9 17
1938-11-26 Portadown W 3-260.5 1318 1615 24.72% 15.28% 60.00%-1.35 +7.8 11
1938-11-26 @ Larne L 2-360.5 1615 1318 60.00% 15.28% 24.72%+1.35 -7.8 19
1938-11-26 Bangor W 7-135.9 1453 1427 64.89% 15.51% 19.60%+0.91 +14.0 12
1938-11-26 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-735.9 1427 1453 19.60% 15.51% 64.89%-0.91 -14.0 12
1938-12-03 Glenavon D 1-162.5 1544 1434 71.83% 15.14% 13.02%+1.51 -2.1 22
1938-12-03 @ Ballymena United D 1-162.5 1434 1544 13.02% 15.14% 71.83%-1.51 +2.1 18
1938-12-03 Larne D 0-053.3 1413 1326 70.14% 15.26% 14.60%+1.35 -2.3 13
1938-12-03 @ Bangor D 0-053.3 1326 1413 14.60% 15.26% 70.14%-1.35 +2.2 12
1938-12-03 Lisburn Distillery W 2-043.8 1819 1467 82.98% 13.30% 3.72%+3.20 +1.2 28
1938-12-03 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-243.8 1467 1819 3.72% 13.30% 82.98%-3.20 -1.2 12
1938-12-03 Ards W 5-035.7 1607 1447 75.01% 14.85% 10.14%+1.86 +7.6 18
1938-12-03 @ Derry City L 0-535.7 1447 1607 10.14% 14.85% 75.01%-1.86 -7.7 19
1938-12-03 Glentoran W 2-151.9 1683 1565 72.36% 15.10% 12.54%+1.56 +2.0 21
1938-12-03 @ Linfield L 1-251.9 1565 1683 12.54% 15.10% 72.36%-1.56 -2.0 23
1938-12-03 Cliftonville W 4-343.2 1526 1251 80.41% 14.00% 5.60%+2.66 +0.8 19
1938-12-03 @ Newry Town L 3-443.2 1251 1526 5.60% 14.00% 80.41%-2.66 -0.8 5
1938-12-03 Coleraine W 5-239.0 1607 1312 81.17% 13.82% 5.02%+2.81 +1.7 21
1938-12-03 @ Portadown L 2-539.0 1312 1607 5.02% 13.82% 81.17%-2.81 -1.7 7
1938-12-10 Ballymena United L 2-653.3 1439 1542 50.08% 15.74% 34.19%+0.01 -18.7 19
1938-12-10 @ Ards W 6-253.3 1542 1439 34.19% 15.74% 50.08%-0.01 +18.7 24
1938-12-10 Bangor W 2-037.8 1310 1411 50.36% 15.74% 33.91%+0.02 +10.0 9
1938-12-10 @ Coleraine L 0-237.8 1411 1310 33.91% 15.74% 50.36%-0.02 -10.0 13
1938-12-10 Cliftonville W 2-135.1 1436 1250 76.42% 14.68% 8.90%+2.04 +1.5 20
1938-12-10 @ Glenavon L 1-235.1 1250 1436 8.90% 14.68% 76.42%-2.04 -1.4 5
1938-12-10 Portadown L 2-958.4 1563 1609 57.25% 15.69% 27.06%+0.41 -34.4 23
1938-12-10 @ Glentoran W 9-258.4 1609 1563 27.06% 15.69% 57.25%-0.41 +34.4 23
1938-12-10 Belfast Celtic D 1-168.8 1328 1820 9.75% 13.96% 76.29%-2.73 +2.4 13
1938-12-10 @ Larne D 1-168.8 1820 1328 76.29% 13.96% 9.75%+2.73 -2.5 29
1938-12-10 Newry Town W 4-146.7 1685 1527 74.90% 14.86% 10.24%+1.84 +4.0 23
1938-12-10 @ Linfield L 1-446.7 1527 1685 10.24% 14.86% 74.90%-1.84 -4.1 19
1938-12-10 Derry City L 1-453.4 1466 1615 43.82% 15.71% 40.46%-0.31 -15.2 12
1938-12-10 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-153.4 1615 1466 40.46% 15.71% 43.82%+0.31 +15.2 20
1938-12-17 Lisburn Distillery W 3-037.4 1561 1451 71.80% 15.14% 13.05%+1.50 +6.1 26
1938-12-17 @ Ballymena United L 0-337.4 1451 1561 13.05% 15.14% 71.80%-1.50 -6.1 12
1938-12-17 Glentoran L 2-454.7 1401 1528 46.78% 15.73% 37.49%-0.16 -10.2 13
1938-12-17 @ Bangor W 4-254.7 1528 1401 37.49% 15.73% 46.78%+0.16 +10.2 25
1938-12-17 Coleraine W 8-138.2 1818 1320 86.49% 11.81% 1.70%+4.23 +1.4 31
1938-12-17 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-838.2 1320 1818 1.70% 11.81% 86.49%-4.23 -1.4 9
1938-12-17 Ards W 4-353.5 1249 1420 40.57% 15.68% 43.75%-0.47 +5.7 7
1938-12-17 @ Cliftonville L 3-453.5 1420 1249 43.75% 15.68% 40.57%+0.47 -5.7 19
1938-12-17 Larne W 5-030.4 1630 1330 81.30% 13.78% 4.92%+2.83 +3.7 22
1938-12-17 @ Derry City L 0-530.4 1330 1630 4.92% 13.78% 81.30%-2.83 -3.7 13
1938-12-17 Glenavon L 1-260.4 1523 1437 69.97% 15.27% 14.76%+1.33 -9.7 19
1938-12-17 @ Newry Town W 2-160.4 1437 1523 14.76% 15.27% 69.97%-1.33 +9.7 22
1938-12-17 Linfield W 3-155.7 1643 1689 57.27% 15.69% 27.04%+0.41 +7.1 25
1938-12-17 @ Portadown L 1-355.7 1689 1643 27.04% 15.69% 57.27%-0.41 -7.1 23
1938-12-24 Glenavon W 4-246.1 1414 1447 58.81% 15.67% 25.53%+0.50 +6.0 21
1938-12-24 @ Ards L 2-446.1 1447 1414 25.53% 15.67% 58.81%-0.50 -6.0 22
1938-12-24 Derry City L 1-344.1 1318 1634 22.83% 15.19% 61.98%-1.48 -6.0 9
1938-12-24 @ Coleraine W 3-144.1 1634 1318 61.98% 15.19% 22.83%+1.48 +6.0 24
1938-12-24 Ballymena United D 2-263.1 1327 1567 31.35% 15.51% 53.14%-0.96 +0.6 14
1938-12-24 @ Larne D 2-263.1 1567 1327 53.14% 15.51% 31.35%+0.96 -0.5 27
1938-12-24 Bangor W 4-140.9 1682 1391 81.01% 13.85% 5.13%+2.78 +2.0 25
1938-12-24 @ Linfield L 1-440.9 1391 1682 5.13% 13.85% 81.01%-2.78 -2.0 13
1938-12-24 Cliftonville W 2-135.2 1445 1254 76.65% 14.65% 8.70%+2.07 +1.4 14
1938-12-24 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-235.2 1254 1445 8.70% 14.65% 76.65%-2.07 -1.4 7
1938-12-24 Newry Town W 3-041.9 1650 1513 73.62% 14.99% 11.39%+1.70 +5.3 27
1938-12-24 @ Portadown L 0-341.9 1513 1650 11.39% 14.99% 73.62%-1.70 -5.3 19
1938-12-26 Coleraine W 4-028.8 1566 1312 79.59% 14.17% 6.24%+2.52 +3.8 29
1938-12-26 @ Ballymena United L 0-428.8 1312 1566 6.24% 14.17% 79.59%-2.52 -3.8 9
1938-12-26 Portadown W 4-367.4 1389 1656 28.10% 15.41% 56.49%-1.14 +7.2 15
1938-12-26 @ Bangor L 3-467.4 1656 1389 56.49% 15.41% 28.10%+1.14 -7.2 27
1938-12-26 Linfield L 1-272.4 1819 1684 73.50% 15.00% 11.50%+1.68 -10.2 31
1938-12-26 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-172.4 1684 1819 11.50% 15.00% 73.50%-1.68 +10.2 27
1938-12-26 Larne L 1-444.3 1253 1327 53.83% 15.72% 30.45%+0.21 -18.3 7
1938-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 4-144.3 1327 1253 30.45% 15.72% 53.83%-0.21 +18.3 16
1938-12-26 Glentoran W 4-041.5 1640 1539 71.15% 15.19% 13.66%+1.44 +8.3 26
1938-12-26 @ Derry City L 0-441.5 1539 1640 13.66% 15.19% 71.15%-1.44 -8.3 25
1938-12-26 Lisburn Distillery W 5-138.5 1441 1446 61.79% 15.60% 22.61%+0.70 +11.0 24
1938-12-26 @ Glenavon L 1-538.5 1446 1441 22.61% 15.60% 61.79%-0.70 -11.0 14
1938-12-26 Ards D 1-160.7 1508 1420 70.12% 15.26% 14.62%+1.34 -2.0 20
1938-12-26 @ Newry Town D 1-160.7 1420 1508 14.62% 15.26% 70.12%-1.34 +2.0 22
1938-12-27 Newry Town L 2-356.3 1396 1506 49.21% 15.74% 35.06%-0.04 -6.5 15
1938-12-27 @ Bangor W 3-256.3 1506 1396 35.06% 15.74% 49.21%+0.04 +6.5 22
1938-12-27 Cliftonville L 0-442.9 1308 1235 69.06% 15.32% 15.61%+1.25 -36.2 9
1938-12-27 @ Coleraine W 4-042.9 1235 1308 15.61% 15.32% 69.06%-1.25 +36.2 9
1938-12-27 Ballymena United L 1-360.1 1530 1570 57.96% 15.68% 26.36%+0.45 -13.9 25
1938-12-27 @ Glentoran W 3-160.1 1570 1530 26.36% 15.68% 57.96%-0.45 +13.9 31
1938-12-27 Glenavon W 3-037.2 1346 1452 49.65% 15.74% 34.62%-0.02 +14.8 18
1938-12-27 @ Larne L 0-337.2 1452 1346 34.62% 15.74% 49.65%+0.02 -14.8 24
1938-12-27 Derry City L 2-471.7 1694 1648 66.76% 15.44% 17.81%+1.06 -14.3 27
1938-12-27 @ Linfield W 4-271.7 1648 1694 17.81% 15.44% 66.76%-1.06 +14.3 28
1938-12-27 Ards W 2-036.8 1435 1422 63.59% 15.55% 20.86%+0.82 +6.5 16
1938-12-27 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-236.8 1422 1435 20.86% 15.55% 63.59%-0.82 -6.5 22
1938-12-27 Belfast Celtic L 2-367.1 1648 1809 42.09% 15.70% 42.21%-0.40 -5.7 27
1938-12-27 @ Portadown W 3-267.1 1809 1648 42.21% 15.70% 42.09%+0.40 +5.7 33
1938-12-31 Larne W 3-243.2 1416 1360 67.57% 15.40% 17.03%+1.12 +2.5 24
1938-12-31 @ Ards L 2-343.2 1360 1416 17.03% 15.40% 67.57%-1.12 -2.5 18
1938-12-31 Linfield W 2-158.6 1584 1680 51.05% 15.74% 33.21%+0.06 +4.9 33
1938-12-31 @ Ballymena United L 1-258.6 1680 1584 33.21% 15.74% 51.05%-0.06 -4.9 27
1938-12-31 Bangor W 10-140.4 1815 1389 84.92% 12.58% 2.51%+3.72 +2.7 35
1938-12-31 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-1040.4 1389 1815 2.51% 12.58% 84.92%-3.72 -2.7 15
1938-12-31 Glentoran W 4-358.3 1271 1516 30.69% 15.49% 53.82%-0.99 +6.9 11
1938-12-31 @ Cliftonville L 3-458.3 1516 1271 53.82% 15.49% 30.69%+0.99 -6.9 25
1938-12-31 Portadown W 6-253.2 1662 1643 64.26% 15.53% 20.21%+0.87 +8.4 30
1938-12-31 @ Derry City L 2-653.2 1643 1662 20.21% 15.53% 64.26%-0.87 -8.5 27
1938-12-31 Coleraine W 5-235.8 1437 1272 75.28% 14.82% 9.90%+1.89 +3.4 26
1938-12-31 @ Glenavon L 2-535.8 1272 1437 9.90% 14.82% 75.28%-1.89 -3.4 9
1938-12-31 Lisburn Distillery L 1-554.6 1512 1442 68.81% 15.34% 15.85%+1.23 -30.0 22
1938-12-31 @ Newry Town W 5-154.6 1442 1512 15.85% 15.34% 68.81%-1.23 +30.0 18
1939-01-04 Belfast Celtic L 1-650.1 1510 1818 23.55% 15.23% 61.22%-1.43 -13.9 25
1939-01-04 @ Glentoran W 6-150.1 1818 1510 61.22% 15.23% 23.55%+1.43 +13.9 37
1939-01-07 Derry City L 1-545.6 1387 1671 26.17% 15.34% 58.50%-1.26 -12.5 15
1939-01-07 @ Bangor W 5-145.6 1671 1387 58.50% 15.34% 26.17%+1.26 +12.5 32
1939-01-07 Newry Town W 4-146.0 1832 1482 82.90% 13.33% 3.77%+3.19 +1.5 39
1939-01-07 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-446.0 1482 1832 3.77% 13.33% 82.90%-3.19 -1.5 22
1939-01-07 Ards L 2-545.9 1269 1419 43.68% 15.71% 40.61%-0.32 -13.1 9
1939-01-07 @ Coleraine W 5-245.9 1419 1269 40.61% 15.71% 43.68%+0.32 +13.1 26
1939-01-07 Glenavon W 4-351.6 1496 1441 67.51% 15.40% 17.09%+1.12 +2.5 27
1939-01-07 @ Glentoran L 3-451.6 1441 1496 17.09% 15.40% 67.51%-1.12 -2.5 26
1939-01-07 Lisburn Distillery L 0-244.4 1358 1472 48.65% 15.74% 35.61%-0.07 -13.6 18
1939-01-07 @ Larne W 2-044.4 1472 1358 35.61% 15.74% 48.65%+0.07 +13.6 20
1939-01-07 Cliftonville D 0-059.8 1675 1278 84.22% 12.86% 2.92%+3.52 -3.4 28
1939-01-07 @ Linfield D 0-059.8 1278 1675 2.92% 12.86% 84.22%-3.52 +3.4 12
1939-01-07 Ballymena United W 7-249.5 1634 1589 66.66% 15.44% 17.89%+1.05 +9.1 29
1939-01-07 @ Portadown L 2-749.5 1589 1634 17.89% 15.44% 66.66%-1.05 -9.1 33
1939-01-14 Glentoran W 2-147.3 1432 1498 54.80% 15.72% 29.49%+0.27 +4.4 28
1939-01-14 @ Ards L 1-247.3 1498 1432 29.49% 15.72% 54.80%-0.27 -4.4 27
1939-01-14 Bangor L 2-366.3 1580 1374 77.43% 14.54% 8.03%+2.18 -10.2 33
1939-01-14 @ Ballymena United W 3-266.3 1374 1580 8.03% 14.54% 77.43%-2.18 +10.2 17
1939-01-14 Portadown L 0-238.0 1281 1643 18.42% 14.92% 66.66%-1.81 -5.7 12
1939-01-14 @ Cliftonville W 2-038.0 1643 1281 66.66% 14.92% 18.42%+1.81 +5.7 31
1939-01-14 Belfast Celtic D 2-276.5 1683 1833 43.63% 15.71% 40.65%-0.32 -0.1 33
1939-01-14 @ Derry City D 2-276.5 1833 1683 40.65% 15.71% 43.63%+0.32 +0.1 40
1939-01-14 Linfield W 6-258.5 1438 1672 32.20% 15.53% 52.27%-0.91 +19.5 28
1939-01-14 @ Glenavon L 2-658.5 1672 1438 52.27% 15.53% 32.20%+0.91 -19.4 28
1939-01-14 Coleraine W 5-235.3 1485 1256 78.54% 14.36% 7.10%+2.34 +2.4 22
1939-01-14 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-535.3 1256 1485 7.10% 14.36% 78.54%-2.34 -2.4 9
1939-01-14 Larne W 3-136.6 1481 1344 73.56% 15.00% 11.44%+1.69 +3.2 24
1939-01-14 @ Newry Town L 1-336.6 1344 1481 11.44% 15.00% 73.56%-1.69 -3.2 18
1939-01-28 Cliftonville W 3-028.5 1384 1276 71.71% 15.15% 13.14%+1.50 +6.1 19
1939-01-28 @ Bangor L 0-328.5 1276 1384 13.14% 15.15% 71.71%-1.50 -6.1 12
1939-01-28 Ballymena United L 1-273.6 1833 1570 79.97% 14.09% 5.94%+2.58 -11.0 40
1939-01-28 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-173.6 1570 1833 5.94% 14.09% 79.97%-2.58 +11.0 35
1939-01-28 Larne L 2-351.6 1253 1341 52.12% 15.73% 32.15%+0.12 -6.9 9
1939-01-28 @ Coleraine W 3-251.6 1341 1253 32.15% 15.73% 52.12%-0.12 +6.9 20
1939-01-28 Lisburn Distillery W 2-041.2 1494 1488 62.94% 15.57% 21.48%+0.77 +6.7 29
1939-01-28 @ Glentoran L 0-241.2 1488 1494 21.48% 15.57% 62.94%-0.77 -6.7 22
1939-01-28 Ards W 1-043.0 1652 1436 77.93% 14.46% 7.61%+2.25 +1.3 30
1939-01-28 @ Linfield L 0-143.0 1436 1652 7.61% 14.46% 77.93%-2.25 -1.3 28
1939-01-28 Derry City W 4-368.7 1484 1683 36.72% 15.63% 47.65%-0.67 +6.2 26
1939-01-28 @ Newry Town L 3-468.7 1683 1484 47.65% 15.63% 36.72%+0.67 -6.2 33
1939-01-28 Glenavon W 2-041.5 1649 1458 76.72% 14.64% 8.64%+2.08 +2.8 33
1939-01-28 @ Portadown L 0-241.5 1458 1649 8.64% 14.64% 76.72%-2.08 -2.8 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1939-01-28 5.94% Ballymena United 1570 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1833 1
2 1939-01-14 8.03% Bangor 1374 3 @ Ballymena United 1580 2
3 1938-10-29 9.78% Derry City 1610 4 @ Belfast Celtic 1778 3
4 1938-12-26 11.50% Linfield 1684 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1819 1
5 1938-10-15 13.09% Ballymena United 1576 2 @ Linfield 1685 1
6 1938-10-01 13.78% Bangor 1428 2 @ Newry Town 1528 1
7 1938-12-17 14.76% Glenavon 1437 2 @ Newry Town 1523 1
8 1938-12-27 15.61% Cliftonville 1235 4 @ Coleraine 1308 0
9 1938-12-31 15.85% Lisburn Distillery 1442 5 @ Newry Town 1512 1
10 1938-08-22 16.55% @ Glenavon 1379 2 Belfast Celtic 1763 1
11 1938-09-24 17.79% Glenavon 1424 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1471 1
12 1938-12-27 17.81% Derry City 1648 4 @ Linfield 1694 2
13 1938-08-20 18.38% Ballymena United 1594 5 @ Derry City 1634 3
14 1938-09-17 18.82% Ards 1404 4 @ Glenavon 1438 2
15 1938-08-27 23.67% @ Coleraine 1316 3 Portadown 1623 1
16 1938-09-10 24.34% @ Larne 1328 4 Derry City 1629 2
17 1938-11-26 24.72% @ Larne 1318 3 Portadown 1615 2
18 1938-10-22 24.92% Portadown 1613 4 @ Ballymena United 1586 2
19 1938-12-27 26.36% Ballymena United 1570 3 @ Glentoran 1530 1
20 1938-08-27 26.74% @ Lisburn Distillery 1478 1 Belfast Celtic 1757 0
21 1938-09-17 26.89% @ Bangor 1422 3 Linfield 1700 2
22 1938-12-10 27.06% Portadown 1609 9 @ Glentoran 1563 2
23 1938-12-26 28.10% @ Bangor 1389 4 Portadown 1656 3
24 1938-09-24 28.86% Belfast Celtic 1753 2 @ Linfield 1692 1
25 1938-11-05 29.60% @ Ards 1429 4 Linfield 1684 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-08-27 45.78 @ Glenavon 7 1387 33.20% Ballymena United 0 1613 51.24% 15.56%
2 1938-11-05 39.52 Belfast Celtic 8 1768 47.04% @ Ballymena United 0 1573 37.32% 15.64%
3 1938-12-27 36.17 Cliftonville 4 1235 15.61% @ Coleraine 0 1308 69.06% 15.32%
4 1938-12-10 34.40 Portadown 9 1609 27.06% @ Glentoran 2 1563 57.25% 15.69%
5 1938-12-31 30.03 Lisburn Distillery 5 1442 15.85% @ Newry Town 1 1512 68.81% 15.34%
6 1939-01-14 19.45 @ Glenavon 6 1438 32.20% Linfield 2 1672 52.27% 15.53%
7 1938-12-10 18.74 Ballymena United 6 1542 34.19% @ Ards 2 1439 50.08% 15.74%
8 1938-11-05 18.60 @ Ards 4 1429 29.60% Linfield 1 1684 54.94% 15.46%
9 1938-12-26 18.28 Larne 4 1327 30.45% @ Cliftonville 1 1253 53.83% 15.72%
10 1938-12-10 15.21 Derry City 4 1615 40.46% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1466 43.82% 15.71%
11 1938-12-27 14.76 @ Larne 3 1346 49.65% Glenavon 0 1452 34.62% 15.74%
12 1938-11-05 14.62 @ Glenavon 5 1415 35.00% Portadown 2 1627 49.40% 15.60%
13 1938-08-27 14.55 @ Coleraine 3 1316 23.67% Portadown 1 1623 61.10% 15.23%
14 1938-12-27 14.27 Derry City 4 1648 17.81% @ Linfield 2 1694 66.76% 15.44%
15 1938-09-17 14.04 Ards 4 1404 18.82% @ Glenavon 2 1438 65.69% 15.48%
16 1938-11-26 14.03 @ Lisburn Distillery 7 1453 64.89% Bangor 1 1427 19.60% 15.51%
17 1939-01-04 13.92 Belfast Celtic 6 1818 61.22% @ Glentoran 1 1510 23.55% 15.23%
18 1938-12-27 13.87 Ballymena United 3 1570 26.36% @ Glentoran 1 1530 57.96% 15.68%
19 1939-01-07 13.61 Lisburn Distillery 2 1472 35.61% @ Larne 0 1358 48.65% 15.74%
20 1938-08-20 13.36 Ballymena United 5 1594 18.38% @ Derry City 3 1634 66.16% 15.46%
21 1939-01-07 13.13 Ards 5 1419 40.61% @ Coleraine 2 1269 43.68% 15.71%
22 1938-10-15 13.04 @ Coleraine 4 1315 47.71% Glenavon 1 1436 36.55% 15.73%
23 1938-08-27 13.00 @ Ards 3 1384 30.26% Derry City 1 1633 54.26% 15.48%
24 1938-09-10 12.87 @ Larne 4 1328 24.34% Derry City 2 1629 60.40% 15.26%
25 1938-10-22 12.71 Portadown 4 1613 24.92% @ Ballymena United 2 1586 59.43% 15.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-10-29 80.2 Derry City 4 1610 9.78% @ Belfast Celtic 3 1778 75.42% 14.80%
2 1939-01-14 76.5 @ Derry City 2 1683 43.63% Belfast Celtic 2 1833 40.65% 15.71%
3 1939-01-28 73.6 Ballymena United 2 1570 5.94% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1833 79.97% 14.09%
4 1938-08-20 73.2 Ballymena United 5 1594 18.38% @ Derry City 3 1634 66.16% 15.46%
5 1938-11-12 73.2 @ Ards 3 1448 41.54% Portadown 3 1613 42.77% 15.69%
6 1938-12-26 72.4 Linfield 2 1684 11.50% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1819 73.50% 15.00%
7 1938-12-27 71.7 Derry City 4 1648 17.81% @ Linfield 2 1694 66.76% 15.44%
8 1938-09-17 71.6 @ Newry Town 2 1536 55.01% Portadown 2 1601 29.27% 15.71%
9 1938-10-01 71.2 @ Derry City 1 1610 53.84% Linfield 1 1685 30.44% 15.72%
10 1938-10-29 70.7 @ Bangor 3 1421 43.30% Ballymena United 3 1573 40.99% 15.71%
11 1938-08-22 70.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1477 44.70% Portadown 2 1619 39.58% 15.72%
12 1938-10-15 70.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1455 55.31% Newry Town 3 1518 28.98% 15.71%
13 1938-10-15 69.9 Ballymena United 2 1576 13.09% @ Linfield 1 1685 71.76% 15.15%
14 1938-12-10 68.8 @ Larne 1 1328 9.75% Belfast Celtic 1 1820 76.29% 13.96%
15 1939-01-28 68.7 @ Newry Town 4 1484 36.72% Derry City 3 1683 47.65% 15.63%
16 1938-11-05 68.4 Glentoran 5 1545 30.21% @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1473 54.06% 15.72%
17 1938-10-22 67.4 Portadown 4 1613 24.92% @ Ballymena United 2 1586 59.43% 15.66%
18 1938-12-26 67.4 @ Bangor 4 1389 28.10% Portadown 3 1656 56.49% 15.41%
19 1938-10-22 67.2 @ Ards 4 1433 71.41% Coleraine 4 1328 13.42% 15.17%
20 1938-12-27 67.1 Belfast Celtic 3 1809 42.21% @ Portadown 2 1648 42.09% 15.70%
21 1938-09-24 67.0 Belfast Celtic 2 1753 28.86% @ Linfield 1 1692 55.43% 15.71%
22 1938-09-17 66.6 @ Bangor 3 1422 26.89% Linfield 2 1700 57.74% 15.37%
23 1939-01-14 66.3 Bangor 3 1374 8.03% @ Ballymena United 2 1580 77.43% 14.54%
24 1938-08-22 66.2 @ Glenavon 2 1379 16.55% Belfast Celtic 1 1763 68.66% 14.78%
25 1938-09-10 65.9 @ Glenavon 2 1439 50.88% Newry Town 2 1536 33.39% 15.74%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1938-09-24 28.1 @ Larne 4 1338 66.78% Cliftonville 0 1291 17.78% 15.44%
2 1938-10-22 28.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1455 71.73% Larne 0 1346 13.12% 15.15%
3 1939-01-28 28.5 @ Bangor 3 1384 71.71% Cliftonville 0 1276 13.14% 15.15%
4 1938-12-26 28.8 @ Ballymena United 4 1566 79.59% Coleraine 0 1312 6.24% 14.17%
5 1938-11-19 29.1 @ Glentoran 4 1563 79.12% Coleraine 0 1320 6.63% 14.26%
6 1938-10-29 30.3 @ Portadown 3 1625 82.78% Cliftonville 0 1280 3.86% 13.37%
7 1938-12-17 30.4 @ Derry City 5 1630 81.30% Larne 0 1330 4.92% 13.78%
8 1938-08-25 30.7 @ Portadown 4 1620 81.05% Larne 0 1327 5.10% 13.85%
9 1938-11-19 31.2 @ Linfield 5 1676 83.07% Larne 0 1321 3.66% 13.27%
10 1938-08-24 32.4 @ Linfield 4 1699 83.79% Coleraine 0 1318 3.19% 13.02%
11 1938-08-24 34.8 @ Ballymena United 7 1610 81.76% Cliftonville 2 1297 4.58% 13.66%
12 1938-11-26 35.0 Ballymena United 3 1532 56.73% @ Cliftonville 0 1263 27.87% 15.40%
13 1938-12-10 35.1 @ Glenavon 2 1436 76.42% Cliftonville 1 1250 8.90% 14.68%
14 1938-12-24 35.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1445 76.65% Cliftonville 1 1254 8.70% 14.65%
15 1939-01-14 35.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1485 78.54% Coleraine 2 1256 7.10% 14.36%
16 1938-08-20 35.5 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1762 85.54% Cliftonville 0 1309 2.17% 12.29%
17 1938-12-03 35.7 @ Derry City 5 1607 75.01% Ards 0 1447 10.14% 14.85%
18 1938-12-31 35.8 @ Glenavon 5 1437 75.28% Coleraine 2 1272 9.90% 14.82%
19 1938-10-22 35.9 @ Derry City 8 1598 75.35% Bangor 0 1432 9.84% 14.81%
20 1938-11-26 35.9 @ Lisburn Distillery 7 1453 64.89% Bangor 1 1427 19.60% 15.51%
21 1938-08-20 36.2 @ Newry Town 3 1518 76.68% Coleraine 1 1328 8.68% 14.65%
22 1938-09-17 36.3 @ Derry City 4 1616 80.80% Coleraine 1 1330 5.29% 13.90%
23 1938-10-22 36.5 Linfield 3 1675 68.91% @ Cliftonville 0 1288 16.32% 14.76%
24 1938-09-10 36.6 @ Ards 5 1399 71.78% Cliftonville 2 1290 13.08% 15.15%
25 1939-01-14 36.6 @ Newry Town 3 1481 73.56% Larne 1 1344 11.44% 15.00%