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1950-51 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Glentoran

38 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Glentoran

5.16 points above expected

38 points · 32.84 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ards

6.30 points below expected

8 points · 14.30 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Glentoran 22 18 2 2 38 66 21 +45 32.84 +5.16
2 Linfield 22 15 4 3 34 57 24 +33 31.55 +2.45
3 Glenavon 22 14 3 5 31 58 31 +27 27.69 +3.31
4 Coleraine 22 13 2 7 28 55 35 +20 24.03 +3.97
5 Portadown 22 12 1 9 25 55 35 +20 24.74 +0.26
6 Lisburn Distillery 22 9 4 9 22 45 44 +1 26.70 -4.70
7 Crusaders 22 8 5 9 21 42 51 -9 19.59 +1.41
8 Cliftonville 22 7 2 13 16 42 60 -18 14.40 +1.60
9 Derry City 22 6 4 12 16 27 50 -23 17.59 -1.59
10 Ballymena United 22 5 4 13 14 30 54 -24 15.34 -1.34
11 Bangor 22 4 3 15 11 28 62 -34 15.23 -4.23
12 Ards 22 3 2 17 8 28 66 -38 14.30 -6.30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glentoran 38 32.84 +5.16
2 Coleraine 28 24.03 +3.97
3 Glenavon 31 27.69 +3.31
4 Linfield 34 31.55 +2.45
5 Cliftonville 16 14.40 +1.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ards 8 14.30 -6.30
2 Lisburn Distillery 22 26.70 -4.70
3 Bangor 11 15.23 -4.23
4 Derry City 16 17.59 -1.59
5 Ballymena United 14 15.34 -1.34

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 5 Dec 26 – Jan 31 1 in 59
2 Portadown 3 Dec 23 – Dec 26 1 in 16
3 Glentoran 7 Jan 27 – Mar 10 1 in 13
4 Ballymena United 2 Dec 30 – Jan 13 1 in 10
5 Bangor 3 Dec 26 – Dec 30 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ballymena United 6 Feb 24 – Mar 27 1 in 48
2 Ards 6 Dec 26 – Feb 3 1 in 24
3 Lisburn Distillery 2 Jan 27 – Jan 31 1 in 22
4 Derry City 4 Nov 25 – Dec 23 1 in 17
5 Bangor 6 Mar 10 – Apr 14 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Derry City 5 Mar 24 – Apr 21 1 in 43
2 Coleraine 7 Dec 26 – Feb 10 1 in 33
3 Crusaders 6 Feb 24 – Mar 24 1 in 27
4 Linfield 12 Jan 27 – Apr 21 1 in 14
5 Glentoran 14 Jan 13 – Apr 21 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ards 13 Dec 2 – Feb 24 1 in 59
2 Lisburn Distillery 5 Jan 25 – Feb 10 1 in 49
3 Ballymena United 11 Feb 3 – Apr 21 1 in 40
4 Crusaders 5 Dec 16 – Dec 30 1 in 11
5 Bangor 7 Mar 10 – Apr 21 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Glentoran 1920 38 +70 10 8.0 +2.0
Linfield 1818 34 +28 9 8.5 +0.5
Glenavon 1743 31 +1 7 7.6 -0.6
Coleraine 1612 28 -33 6 6.3 -0.3
Portadown 1622 25 +19 4 5.5 -1.5
Lisburn Distillery 1458 22 -92 3 5.9 -2.9
Crusaders 1508 21 +55 6 4.2 +1.8
Derry City 1345 16 +77 8 4.8 +3.2
Cliftonville 1341 16 +63 4 2.4 +1.6
Ballymena United 1217 14 -12 2 1.8 +0.2
Bangor 1166 11 -109 1 2.7 -1.7
Ards 1249 8 -67 0 2.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CLI COL CRU DC GLE GLE LIN LD POR
Ards —
0-1-1
2.64
1-1-0
2.62
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.06
0-0-2
2.26
0-0-2
2.50
0-0-2
1.25
0-0-2
1.37
0-0-2
0.68
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
2.44
Ballymena United
1-1-0
3.08
 —
0-0-2
2.91
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-1
2.11
1-0-1
2.42
0-0-2
2.12
0-0-2
0.53
1-1-0
0.88
1-1-0
1.14
0-0-2
2.37
Bangor
0-1-1
3.09
2-0-0
2.80
 —
1-0-1
3.07
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.08
0-2-0
2.42
0-0-2
0.81
0-0-2
1.24
0-0-2
1.60
0-0-2
1.66
0-0-2
1.84
Cliftonville
1-0-1
3.56
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.64
 —
0-0-2
1.77
1-1-0
2.26
1-0-1
2.17
1-0-1
0.92
0-0-2
0.53
0-0-2
0.76
1-0-1
1.01
0-1-1
1.67
Coleraine
2-0-0
4.66
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.94
 —
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.57
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
1.26
1-0-1
1.35
0-1-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.44
Crusaders
2-0-0
3.45
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
3.63
0-1-1
3.46
1-0-1
2.46
 —
2-0-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.75
0-1-1
1.07
0-1-1
1.03
0-1-1
2.08
1-0-1
1.75
Derry City
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.29
0-2-0
3.29
1-0-1
3.54
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
2.68
 —
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-2
1.29
0-1-1
1.04
1-0-1
1.15
Glenavon
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
3.59
2-0-0
4.91
1-0-1
4.80
1-1-0
3.10
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
4.13
 —
0-0-2
1.97
0-1-1
2.61
2-0-0
2.79
1-0-1
3.56
Glentoran
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
5.20
2-0-0
4.47
2-0-0
5.19
1-0-1
4.46
1-1-0
4.65
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
3.74
 —
0-1-1
3.33
2-0-0
4.09
2-0-0
3.90
Linfield
2-0-0
5.04
0-1-1
4.84
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
4.96
1-0-1
4.36
1-1-0
4.68
2-0-0
4.42
1-1-0
3.10
1-1-0
2.38
 —
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
3.64
Lisburn Distillery
2-0-0
4.23
0-1-1
4.57
2-0-0
4.05
1-0-1
4.70
1-1-0
3.19
1-1-0
3.63
1-1-0
4.68
0-0-2
2.92
0-0-2
1.62
0-0-2
1.60
 —
1-0-1
2.72
Portadown
1-0-1
3.28
2-0-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.87
1-1-0
4.05
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
3.97
1-0-1
4.57
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-2
1.82
1-0-1
2.07
1-0-1
2.99
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.90 +6.5
Allowed 0.95 -6.1
Differential 0.97 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.79%4.17%4.92%2.27%1.89%17.05%
13.79%9.09%6.06%3.41%3.41%2.65%28.41%
24.17%6.06%2.27%5.30%1.89%1.89%21.59%
34.92%3.41%5.30%0.76%0.38%1.14%15.91%
42.27%3.41%1.89%0.38%1.52%—9.47%
5+1.89%2.65%1.89%1.14%——7.58%
Total17.05%28.41%21.59%15.91%9.47%7.58%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.02 2.02 +0.00
SD 1.65 1.65 2.61
CV 0.82 0.82 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
1—9.09%18.18%9.09%—9.09%45.45%
2———4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
39.09%—4.55%——4.55%18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%13.64%22.73%22.73%9.09%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 3.00 -1.73
SD 1.03 2.07 2.43
CV 0.81 0.69 —
Max 3 8 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——22.73%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
2—9.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
3——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total4.55%18.18%40.91%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.45 -1.09
SD 1.29 1.53 2.16
CV 0.95 0.63 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%27.27%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%9.09%40.91%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
5+———————
Total4.55%22.73%18.18%22.73%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 2.82 -1.55
SD 1.20 1.71 2.26
CV 0.94 0.61 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%9.09%9.09%—22.73%
14.55%——4.55%—4.55%13.64%
29.09%——13.64%4.55%—27.27%
3—4.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
44.55%———9.09%—13.64%
5+———————
Total18.18%4.55%13.64%27.27%27.27%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 2.73 -0.82
SD 1.38 1.70 2.30
CV 0.72 0.62 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—9.09%——13.64%
19.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%
34.55%9.09%9.09%———22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%13.64%————18.18%
Total22.73%36.36%18.18%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.59 +0.91
SD 1.82 1.50 2.65
CV 0.73 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%—4.55%4.55%13.64%
19.09%13.64%4.55%—9.09%4.55%40.91%
2—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
34.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%27.27%18.18%13.64%18.18%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 2.32 -0.41
SD 1.80 1.78 2.81
CV 0.94 0.77 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%4.55%—9.09%22.73%
19.09%13.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%—45.45%
2—4.55%4.55%9.09%——18.18%
3—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total9.09%27.27%27.27%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 2.27 -1.05
SD 0.97 1.64 2.15
CV 0.79 0.72 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
14.55%13.64%—9.09%——27.27%
24.55%9.09%———4.55%18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
413.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
5+—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
Total27.27%40.91%13.64%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.64 1.41 +1.23
SD 1.84 1.59 2.62
CV 0.70 1.13 —
Max 6 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
1—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
213.64%13.64%————27.27%
39.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
44.55%13.64%————18.18%
5+—9.09%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
Total27.27%54.55%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 0.95 +2.05
SD 1.75 0.79 1.70
CV 0.58 0.82 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
14.55%18.18%4.55%———27.27%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
313.64%4.55%9.09%———27.27%
4——9.09%———9.09%
5+9.09%——4.55%——13.64%
Total31.82%36.36%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.59 1.09 +1.50
SD 1.65 0.97 1.92
CV 0.64 0.89 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
1—9.09%9.09%—9.09%—27.27%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%——4.55%——9.09%
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 2.00 +0.05
SD 1.43 1.54 2.34
CV 0.70 0.77 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
14.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
39.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
4—9.09%——4.55%—13.64%
5+4.55%—9.09%———13.64%
Total22.73%27.27%27.27%13.64%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.59 +0.91
SD 2.18 1.26 2.62
CV 0.87 0.79 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glentoran 1920 38 32.84 +5.16 97.0% 23 27 31 33 35 38 40
Linfield 1818 34 31.55 +2.45 80.0% 21 25 29 32 34 38 42
Glenavon 1743 31 27.69 +3.31 89.0% 17 21 25 28 30 33 36
Portadown 1622 25 24.74 +0.26 66.0% 14 19 23 25 27 31 32
Coleraine 1612 28 24.03 +3.97 86.0% 13 18 21 24 27 29 34
Crusaders 1508 21 19.59 +1.41 70.0% 8 14 17 20 22 26 27
Lisburn Distillery 1458 22 26.70 -4.70 12.0% 16 19 24 27 29 33 34
Derry City 1345 16 17.59 -1.59 38.0% 8 11 15 17 20 24 27
Cliftonville 1341 16 14.40 +1.60 74.0% 5 8 12 15 17 19 23
Ards 1249 8 14.30 -6.30 4.0% 6 9 12 14 16 22 24
Ballymena United 1217 14 15.34 -1.34 39.0% 3 8 12 15 18 21 26
Bangor 1166 11 15.23 -4.23 14.0% 4 9 13 15 18 21 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+25.76%
Strong Edge
56.06%13.64%30.30%
Elo Value
Home Edge
178 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
091.55500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.70 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.52+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Glentoran, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.95 * Some Luck: 2.95 to 4.43 * Lucky: 4.43 to 5.9 * Wild Swing: 5.9 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.08 * Close: 1.08 to 1.62 * Off: 1.62 to 2.16 * Way Off: 2.16 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.51 points
Some Luck
03.699
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.353
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
97.00%
Glentoran
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.00%
Ards
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.23
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 246.74
2.17
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
87%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 99%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
45%
Few
0%44%100%
Blowouts
Expected
34%
Very Frequent
0%34%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.45
Highly Predictable
00.492
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.94
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.34
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
17%
Chalky
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
12%
Solid Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.92
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.128
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1240.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Glentoran58.00%28.00%6.00%7.00%1.00%———————
Linfield32.00%40.00%15.00%5.00%7.00%1.00%——————
Glenavon4.00%17.00%32.00%18.00%18.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%———
Coleraine—4.00%8.00%20.00%22.00%17.00%17.00%9.00%—1.00%1.00%1.00%
Portadown2.00%4.00%11.00%22.00%20.00%28.00%7.00%4.00%—2.00%——
Lisburn Distillery4.00%7.00%28.00%24.00%15.00%14.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%———
Crusaders———2.00%7.00%15.00%34.00%17.00%8.00%12.00%3.00%2.00%
Cliftonville————1.00%1.00%2.00%11.00%21.00%21.00%21.00%22.00%
Derry City———2.00%3.00%7.00%15.00%19.00%28.00%10.00%8.00%8.00%
Ballymena United————4.00%2.00%8.00%15.00%19.00%18.00%16.00%18.00%
Bangor————1.00%3.00%8.00%16.00%9.00%18.00%29.00%16.00%
Ards————1.00%4.00%2.00%7.00%13.00%18.00%22.00%33.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Derry City 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1950-11-25 Portadown W 3-248.3 1493 1412 68.49% 14.39% 17.12%+0.98 +9.9 2
1950-11-25 @ Ards L 2-348.3 1412 1493 17.12% 14.39% 68.49%-0.98 -9.9 0
1950-11-25 Crusaders W 3-249.3 1380 1424 55.45% 14.46% 30.09%+0.27 +16.5 2
1950-11-25 @ Cliftonville L 2-349.3 1424 1380 30.09% 14.46% 55.45%-0.27 -16.5 0
1950-11-25 Lisburn Distillery L 0-345.9 1437 1568 43.76% 14.46% 41.78%-0.22 -69.9 0
1950-11-25 @ Coleraine W 3-045.9 1568 1437 41.78% 14.46% 43.76%+0.22 +69.9 2
1950-11-25 Ballymena United W 4-035.4 1513 1452 66.64% 14.41% 18.96%+0.86 +43.4 2
1950-11-25 @ Glenavon L 0-435.4 1452 1513 18.96% 14.41% 66.64%-0.86 -43.4 0
1950-11-25 Bangor W 2-151.0 1632 1515 71.22% 14.35% 14.42%+1.17 +8.9 2
1950-11-25 @ Glentoran L 1-251.0 1515 1632 14.42% 14.35% 71.22%-1.17 -8.9 0
1950-11-25 Derry City W 3-256.6 1645 1529 71.22% 14.35% 14.43%+1.17 +8.4 2
1950-11-25 @ Linfield L 2-356.6 1529 1645 14.43% 14.35% 71.22%-1.17 -8.4 0
1950-12-02 Ards W 4-252.0 1409 1503 48.78% 14.46% 36.76%-0.02 +32.1 2
1950-12-02 @ Ballymena United L 2-452.0 1503 1409 36.76% 14.46% 48.78%+0.02 -32.1 2
1950-12-02 Linfield L 3-564.9 1506 1654 41.23% 14.46% 44.31%-0.32 -33.5 0
1950-12-02 @ Bangor W 5-364.9 1654 1506 44.31% 14.46% 41.23%+0.32 +33.5 4
1950-12-02 Coleraine W 4-243.6 1407 1368 64.68% 14.42% 20.90%+0.74 +19.4 2
1950-12-02 @ Crusaders L 2-443.6 1368 1407 20.90% 14.42% 64.68%-0.74 -19.4 0
1950-12-02 Glentoran L 1-260.7 1520 1640 45.24% 14.46% 40.29%-0.16 -24.8 0
1950-12-02 @ Derry City W 2-160.7 1640 1520 40.29% 14.46% 45.24%+0.16 +24.8 4
1950-12-02 Glenavon L 1-464.1 1638 1556 68.47% 14.39% 17.14%+0.97 -90.1 2
1950-12-02 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-164.1 1556 1638 17.14% 14.39% 68.47%-0.97 +90.1 4
1950-12-02 Cliftonville W 3-140.5 1402 1397 61.10% 14.44% 24.46%+0.54 +25.0 2
1950-12-02 @ Portadown L 1-340.5 1397 1402 24.46% 14.44% 61.10%-0.54 -25.0 2
1950-12-09 Glentoran L 1-550.9 1471 1665 34.90% 14.44% 50.66%-0.58 -62.6 2
1950-12-09 @ Ards W 5-150.9 1665 1471 50.66% 14.44% 34.90%+0.58 +62.6 6
1950-12-09 Portadown L 0-249.0 1441 1427 62.07% 14.44% 23.49%+0.59 -66.6 2
1950-12-09 @ Ballymena United W 2-049.0 1427 1441 23.49% 14.44% 62.07%-0.59 +66.6 4
1950-12-09 Cliftonville W 6-135.2 1348 1372 57.86% 14.45% 27.69%+0.38 +62.5 2
1950-12-09 @ Coleraine L 1-635.2 1372 1348 27.69% 14.45% 57.86%-0.38 -62.5 2
1950-12-09 Derry City W 3-253.7 1427 1496 52.21% 14.46% 33.32%+0.13 +18.0 4
1950-12-09 @ Crusaders L 2-353.7 1496 1427 33.32% 14.46% 52.21%-0.13 -18.0 0
1950-12-09 Linfield D 1-173.1 1646 1687 55.74% 14.46% 29.80%+0.28 -3.5 5
1950-12-09 @ Glenavon D 1-173.1 1687 1646 29.80% 14.46% 55.74%-0.28 +3.5 5
1950-12-09 Bangor W 6-037.2 1548 1472 67.94% 14.39% 17.66%+0.94 +59.6 4
1950-12-09 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-637.2 1472 1548 17.66% 14.39% 67.94%-0.94 -59.6 0
1950-12-16 Portadown W 3-041.6 1728 1493 77.95% 14.20% 7.85%+1.84 +14.4 8
1950-12-16 @ Glentoran L 0-341.6 1493 1728 7.85% 14.20% 77.95%-1.84 -14.4 4
1950-12-16 Crusaders W 6-038.0 1691 1445 78.45% 14.18% 7.38%+1.90 +26.0 7
1950-12-16 @ Linfield L 0-638.0 1445 1691 7.38% 14.18% 78.45%-1.90 -26.0 4
1950-12-23 Glenavon L 1-252.5 1409 1643 29.75% 14.41% 55.84%-0.80 -17.2 2
1950-12-23 @ Ards W 2-152.5 1643 1409 55.84% 14.41% 29.75%+0.80 +17.2 7
1950-12-23 Derry City W 2-042.5 1309 1478 38.38% 14.45% 47.17%-0.43 +51.4 4
1950-12-23 @ Cliftonville L 0-242.5 1478 1309 47.17% 14.45% 38.38%+0.43 -51.4 0
1950-12-23 Linfield W 1-061.4 1411 1717 21.73% 14.35% 63.92%-1.21 +36.3 4
1950-12-23 @ Coleraine L 0-161.4 1717 1411 63.92% 14.35% 21.73%+1.21 -36.3 7
1950-12-23 Ballymena United D 3-367.3 1419 1374 65.14% 14.42% 20.44%+0.77 -3.8 5
1950-12-23 @ Crusaders D 3-367.3 1374 1419 20.44% 14.42% 65.14%-0.77 +3.9 3
1950-12-23 Lisburn Distillery W 2-154.3 1742 1607 72.50% 14.33% 13.17%+1.27 +8.1 10
1950-12-23 @ Glentoran L 1-254.3 1607 1742 13.17% 14.33% 72.50%-1.27 -8.1 4
1950-12-23 Bangor W 4-139.1 1479 1413 67.13% 14.40% 18.46%+0.89 +27.4 6
1950-12-23 @ Portadown L 1-439.1 1413 1479 18.46% 14.40% 67.13%-0.89 -27.4 0
1950-12-25 Cliftonville W 4-030.5 1378 1361 62.43% 14.43% 23.13%+0.61 +52.1 5
1950-12-25 @ Ballymena United L 0-430.5 1361 1378 23.13% 14.43% 62.43%-0.61 -52.1 4
1950-12-25 Ards D 1-157.8 1385 1391 59.88% 14.45% 25.68%+0.48 -4.7 1
1950-12-25 @ Bangor D 1-157.8 1391 1385 25.68% 14.45% 59.88%-0.48 +4.7 3
1950-12-25 Coleraine W 1-041.6 1426 1447 58.18% 14.45% 27.37%+0.40 +16.9 2
1950-12-25 @ Derry City L 0-141.6 1447 1426 27.37% 14.45% 58.18%-0.40 -16.9 4
1950-12-25 Portadown L 2-764.4 1660 1506 73.72% 14.31% 11.97%+1.38 -128.8 7
1950-12-25 @ Glenavon W 7-264.4 1506 1660 11.97% 14.31% 73.72%-1.38 +128.8 8
1950-12-25 Glentoran W 2-161.0 1681 1750 52.10% 14.46% 33.44%+0.12 +19.1 9
1950-12-25 @ Linfield L 1-261.0 1750 1681 33.44% 14.46% 52.10%-0.12 -19.1 10
1950-12-25 Crusaders W 2-038.5 1599 1415 75.50% 14.27% 10.23%+1.55 +12.8 6
1950-12-25 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-238.5 1415 1599 10.23% 14.27% 75.50%-1.55 -12.8 5
1950-12-26 Lisburn Distillery L 3-557.1 1396 1612 32.04% 14.43% 53.54%-0.70 -26.9 3
1950-12-26 @ Ards W 5-357.1 1612 1396 53.54% 14.43% 32.04%+0.70 +26.9 8
1950-12-26 Linfield L 0-239.6 1309 1700 14.48% 14.24% 71.28%-1.69 -17.8 4
1950-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 2-039.6 1700 1309 71.28% 14.24% 14.48%+1.69 +17.8 11
1950-12-26 Ballymena United W 3-035.2 1430 1430 60.53% 14.44% 25.02%+0.51 +42.8 6
1950-12-26 @ Coleraine L 0-335.2 1430 1430 25.02% 14.44% 60.53%-0.51 -42.8 5
1950-12-26 Bangor L 1-253.8 1402 1381 62.83% 14.43% 22.74%+0.64 -33.7 5
1950-12-26 @ Crusaders W 2-153.8 1381 1402 22.74% 14.43% 62.83%-0.64 +33.7 3
1950-12-26 Glenavon W 3-042.8 1731 1531 76.34% 14.25% 9.41%+1.64 +17.2 12
1950-12-26 @ Glentoran L 0-342.8 1531 1731 9.41% 14.25% 76.34%-1.64 -17.2 7
1950-12-26 Derry City W 6-036.9 1635 1443 75.92% 14.26% 9.82%+1.60 +34.2 10
1950-12-26 @ Portadown L 0-636.9 1443 1635 9.82% 14.26% 75.92%-1.60 -34.2 2
1950-12-27 Ballymena United W 4-137.7 1414 1387 63.42% 14.43% 22.15%+0.67 +32.3 5
1950-12-27 @ Bangor L 1-437.7 1387 1414 22.15% 14.43% 63.42%-0.67 -32.3 5
1950-12-30 Derry City W 2-144.0 1355 1409 54.16% 14.46% 31.38%+0.21 +18.0 7
1950-12-30 @ Ballymena United L 1-244.0 1409 1355 31.38% 14.46% 54.16%-0.21 -18.0 2
1950-12-30 Cliftonville W 4-346.4 1447 1291 73.86% 14.31% 11.83%+1.39 +6.8 7
1950-12-30 @ Bangor L 3-446.4 1291 1447 11.83% 14.31% 73.86%-1.39 -6.8 4
1950-12-30 Glentoran W 1-062.8 1473 1748 24.93% 14.38% 60.69%-1.04 +34.5 8
1950-12-30 @ Coleraine L 0-162.8 1748 1473 60.69% 14.38% 24.93%+1.04 -34.5 12
1950-12-30 Crusaders W 4-030.6 1514 1368 73.20% 14.32% 12.48%+1.33 +29.4 9
1950-12-30 @ Glenavon L 0-430.6 1368 1514 12.48% 14.32% 73.20%-1.33 -29.4 5
1950-12-30 Ards W 3-036.8 1717 1369 81.77% 13.98% 4.24%+2.48 +7.9 13
1950-12-30 @ Linfield L 0-336.8 1369 1717 4.24% 13.98% 81.77%-2.48 -7.9 3
1950-12-30 Portadown W 3-156.3 1639 1669 57.04% 14.46% 28.51%+0.34 +28.7 10
1950-12-30 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-356.3 1669 1639 28.51% 14.46% 57.04%-0.34 -28.7 10
1951-01-06 Ards W 8-134.2 1339 1361 58.00% 14.45% 27.54%+0.39 +85.0 7
1951-01-06 @ Crusaders L 1-834.2 1361 1339 27.54% 14.45% 58.00%-0.39 -85.0 3
1951-01-06 Glenavon L 0-342.3 1391 1543 40.60% 14.46% 44.94%-0.34 -65.6 2
1951-01-06 @ Derry City W 3-042.3 1543 1391 44.94% 14.46% 40.60%+0.34 +65.6 11
1951-01-06 Linfield W 2-161.1 1641 1725 50.13% 14.46% 35.41%+0.04 +20.0 12
1951-01-06 @ Portadown L 1-261.1 1725 1641 35.41% 14.46% 50.13%-0.04 -20.0 13
1951-01-13 Derry City L 1-249.1 1276 1325 54.78% 14.46% 30.76%+0.24 -29.5 3
1951-01-13 @ Ards W 2-149.1 1325 1276 30.76% 14.46% 54.78%-0.24 +29.5 4
1951-01-13 Linfield W 3-269.3 1373 1705 19.27% 14.32% 66.41%-1.35 +33.8 9
1951-01-13 @ Ballymena United L 2-369.3 1705 1373 66.41% 14.32% 19.27%+1.35 -33.8 13
1951-01-13 Lisburn Distillery L 2-349.2 1284 1668 15.03% 14.25% 70.72%-1.64 -8.7 4
1951-01-13 @ Cliftonville W 3-249.2 1668 1284 70.72% 14.25% 15.03%+1.64 +8.7 12
1951-01-13 Portadown W 2-054.1 1507 1661 40.49% 14.46% 45.06%-0.35 +49.4 10
1951-01-13 @ Coleraine L 0-254.1 1661 1507 45.06% 14.46% 40.49%+0.35 -49.4 12
1951-01-13 Glentoran D 1-169.4 1424 1714 23.39% 14.36% 62.24%-1.12 +5.3 8
1951-01-13 @ Crusaders D 1-169.4 1714 1424 62.24% 14.36% 23.39%+1.12 -5.3 13
1951-01-13 Bangor W 2-040.8 1609 1454 73.82% 14.31% 11.87%+1.39 +14.8 13
1951-01-13 @ Glenavon L 0-240.8 1454 1609 11.87% 14.31% 73.82%-1.39 -14.8 7
1951-01-25 Lisburn Distillery D 1-165.8 1355 1676 20.25% 14.33% 65.42%-1.29 +6.3 5
1951-01-25 @ Derry City D 1-165.8 1676 1355 65.42% 14.33% 20.25%+1.29 -6.3 13
1951-01-27 Coleraine L 1-339.7 1247 1557 21.37% 14.34% 64.29%-1.23 -22.1 3
1951-01-27 @ Ards W 3-139.7 1557 1247 64.29% 14.34% 21.37%+1.23 +22.1 12
1951-01-27 Glenavon W 1-054.5 1275 1624 17.83% 14.30% 67.87%-1.45 +38.6 6
1951-01-27 @ Cliftonville L 0-154.5 1624 1275 67.87% 14.30% 17.83%+1.45 -38.6 13
1951-01-27 Bangor D 1-158.2 1361 1439 51.04% 14.46% 34.49%+0.08 -2.2 6
1951-01-27 @ Derry City D 1-158.2 1439 1361 34.49% 14.46% 51.04%-0.08 +2.2 8
1951-01-27 Ballymena United W 2-040.6 1709 1407 80.46% 14.08% 5.47%+2.21 +7.0 15
1951-01-27 @ Glentoran L 0-240.6 1407 1709 5.47% 14.08% 80.46%-2.21 -7.0 9
1951-01-27 Lisburn Distillery W 4-260.2 1671 1670 60.72% 14.44% 24.84%+0.52 +22.7 15
1951-01-27 @ Linfield L 2-460.2 1670 1671 24.84% 14.44% 60.72%-0.52 -22.7 13
1951-01-27 Crusaders W 3-251.1 1611 1429 75.38% 14.28% 10.35%+1.54 +6.2 14
1951-01-27 @ Portadown L 2-351.1 1429 1611 10.35% 14.28% 75.38%-1.54 -6.1 8
1951-01-31 Coleraine L 1-549.2 1441 1579 42.70% 14.46% 42.84%-0.26 -74.5 8
1951-01-31 @ Bangor W 5-149.2 1579 1441 42.84% 14.46% 42.70%+0.26 +74.5 14
1951-01-31 Cliftonville W 5-349.1 1716 1314 82.98% 13.86% 3.16%+2.78 +3.0 17
1951-01-31 @ Glentoran L 3-549.1 1314 1716 3.16% 13.86% 82.98%-2.78 -3.0 6
1951-01-31 Ballymena United L 1-266.9 1647 1400 78.50% 14.18% 7.33%+1.91 -42.6 13
1951-01-31 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-166.9 1400 1647 7.33% 14.18% 78.50%-1.91 +42.5 11
1951-02-03 Glenavon L 1-549.3 1442 1585 42.01% 14.46% 43.53%-0.29 -73.5 11
1951-02-03 @ Ballymena United W 5-149.3 1585 1442 43.53% 14.46% 42.01%+0.29 +73.5 15
1951-02-03 Glentoran L 1-643.0 1366 1719 17.52% 14.29% 68.18%-1.47 -41.2 8
1951-02-03 @ Bangor W 6-143.0 1719 1366 68.18% 14.29% 17.52%+1.47 +41.2 19
1951-02-03 Linfield L 0-638.8 1359 1694 18.98% 14.31% 66.71%-1.37 -63.5 6
1951-02-03 @ Derry City W 6-038.8 1694 1359 66.71% 14.31% 18.98%+1.37 +63.5 17
1951-02-03 Coleraine D 2-276.7 1605 1653 54.81% 14.46% 30.73%+0.24 -2.4 14
1951-02-03 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-276.7 1653 1605 30.73% 14.46% 54.81%-0.24 +2.4 15
1951-02-03 Ards W 1-033.4 1617 1225 82.80% 13.88% 3.32%+2.73 +2.3 16
1951-02-03 @ Portadown L 0-133.4 1225 1617 3.32% 13.88% 82.80%-2.73 -2.3 3
1951-02-10 Ballymena United D 1-155.5 1223 1369 41.46% 14.46% 44.08%-0.31 +0.3 4
1951-02-10 @ Ards D 1-155.5 1369 1223 44.08% 14.46% 41.46%+0.31 -0.3 12
1951-02-10 Portadown D 4-474.3 1311 1620 21.47% 14.35% 64.19%-1.22 +3.2 7
1951-02-10 @ Cliftonville D 4-474.3 1620 1311 64.19% 14.35% 21.47%+1.22 -3.2 17
1951-02-10 Crusaders W 6-139.8 1656 1423 77.87% 14.20% 7.93%+1.82 +19.4 17
1951-02-10 @ Coleraine L 1-639.8 1423 1656 7.93% 14.20% 77.87%-1.82 -19.4 8
1951-02-10 Lisburn Distillery W 6-252.0 1659 1602 66.24% 14.41% 19.35%+0.83 +31.3 17
1951-02-10 @ Glenavon L 2-652.0 1602 1659 19.35% 14.41% 66.24%-0.83 -31.3 14
1951-02-10 Derry City W 4-139.9 1760 1295 84.07% 13.70% 2.23%+3.13 +3.5 21
1951-02-10 @ Glentoran L 1-439.9 1295 1760 2.23% 13.70% 84.07%-3.13 -3.5 6
1951-02-10 Bangor W 3-250.2 1758 1325 83.55% 13.79% 2.66%+2.95 +1.6 19
1951-02-10 @ Linfield L 2-350.2 1325 1758 2.66% 13.79% 83.55%-2.95 -1.6 8
1951-02-12 Ards W 3-135.1 1314 1223 69.26% 14.38% 16.36%+1.03 +17.3 9
1951-02-12 @ Cliftonville L 1-335.1 1223 1314 16.36% 14.38% 69.26%-1.03 -17.3 4
1951-02-17 Coleraine W 6-254.5 1690 1675 62.13% 14.44% 23.43%+0.60 +37.3 19
1951-02-17 @ Glenavon L 2-654.5 1675 1690 23.43% 14.44% 62.13%-0.60 -37.3 17
1951-02-24 Lisburn Distillery L 1-246.4 1324 1571 28.15% 14.40% 57.44%-0.88 -16.4 8
1951-02-24 @ Bangor W 2-146.4 1571 1324 57.44% 14.40% 28.15%+0.88 +16.4 16
1951-02-24 Coleraine L 2-351.9 1331 1638 21.69% 14.35% 63.96%-1.21 -12.3 9
1951-02-24 @ Cliftonville W 3-251.9 1638 1331 63.96% 14.35% 21.69%+1.21 +12.3 19
1951-02-24 Crusaders L 0-143.6 1292 1404 46.37% 14.46% 39.17%-0.12 -26.8 6
1951-02-24 @ Derry City W 1-043.6 1404 1292 39.17% 14.46% 46.37%+0.12 +26.9 10
1951-02-24 Ards W 7-235.8 1763 1206 85.24% 13.44% 1.32%+3.65 +2.8 23
1951-02-24 @ Glentoran L 2-735.8 1206 1763 1.32% 13.44% 85.24%-3.65 -2.8 4
1951-02-24 Glenavon W 3-155.5 1759 1727 63.94% 14.43% 21.64%+0.70 +22.4 21
1951-02-24 @ Linfield L 1-355.5 1727 1759 21.64% 14.43% 63.94%-0.70 -22.4 19
1951-02-24 Ballymena United W 7-238.4 1617 1369 78.52% 14.17% 7.31%+1.91 +15.0 19
1951-02-24 @ Portadown L 2-738.4 1369 1617 7.31% 14.17% 78.52%-1.91 -15.0 12
1951-03-03 Cliftonville W 3-035.0 1203 1319 45.77% 14.46% 39.77%-0.14 +64.4 6
1951-03-03 @ Ards L 0-335.0 1319 1203 39.77% 14.46% 45.77%+0.14 -64.4 9
1951-03-03 Bangor L 0-246.0 1354 1307 65.31% 14.42% 20.27%+0.78 -70.1 12
1951-03-03 @ Ballymena United W 2-046.0 1307 1354 20.27% 14.42% 65.31%-0.78 +70.1 10
1951-03-03 Glenavon D 1-173.3 1650 1705 54.07% 14.46% 31.47%+0.21 -3.0 20
1951-03-03 @ Coleraine D 1-173.3 1705 1650 31.47% 14.46% 54.07%-0.21 +3.0 20
1951-03-03 Linfield D 1-171.3 1431 1782 17.61% 14.29% 68.10%-1.46 +7.1 11
1951-03-03 @ Crusaders D 1-171.3 1782 1431 68.10% 14.29% 17.61%+1.46 -7.1 22
1951-03-03 Derry City W 3-135.9 1587 1265 81.08% 14.04% 4.88%+2.33 +5.4 18
1951-03-03 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-335.9 1265 1587 4.88% 14.04% 81.08%-2.33 -5.4 6
1951-03-03 Glentoran L 0-257.0 1632 1766 43.19% 14.46% 42.35%-0.24 -47.6 19
1951-03-03 @ Portadown W 2-057.0 1766 1632 42.35% 14.46% 43.19%+0.24 +47.6 25
1951-03-10 Crusaders L 1-246.0 1284 1438 40.37% 14.45% 45.18%-0.35 -22.5 12
1951-03-10 @ Ballymena United W 2-146.0 1438 1284 45.18% 14.45% 40.37%+0.35 +22.5 13
1951-03-10 Portadown L 1-445.9 1377 1584 33.23% 14.43% 52.34%-0.65 -46.4 10
1951-03-10 @ Bangor W 4-145.9 1584 1377 52.34% 14.43% 33.23%+0.65 +46.4 21
1951-03-10 Cliftonville W 3-244.4 1260 1255 61.08% 14.44% 24.48%+0.54 +13.7 8
1951-03-10 @ Derry City L 2-344.4 1255 1260 24.48% 14.44% 61.08%-0.54 -13.7 9
1951-03-10 Ards W 4-030.7 1708 1267 83.69% 13.77% 2.55%+3.00 +6.2 22
1951-03-10 @ Glenavon L 0-430.7 1267 1708 2.55% 13.77% 83.69%-3.00 -6.2 6
1951-03-10 Coleraine W 2-155.0 1775 1647 71.98% 14.34% 13.67%+1.23 +8.4 24
1951-03-10 @ Linfield L 1-255.0 1647 1775 13.67% 14.34% 71.98%-1.23 -8.4 20
1951-03-10 Glentoran L 1-455.9 1593 1814 31.41% 14.42% 54.17%-0.73 -44.2 18
1951-03-10 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-155.9 1814 1593 54.17% 14.42% 31.41%+0.73 +44.2 27
1951-03-17 Bangor W 3-033.5 1261 1331 52.08% 14.46% 33.46%+0.12 +55.4 8
1951-03-17 @ Ards L 0-333.5 1331 1261 33.46% 14.46% 52.08%-0.12 -55.4 10
1951-03-17 Ballymena United W 2-033.6 1241 1261 58.27% 14.45% 27.28%+0.40 +31.9 11
1951-03-17 @ Cliftonville L 0-233.6 1261 1241 27.28% 14.45% 58.27%-0.40 -31.8 12
1951-03-17 Derry City W 4-135.2 1639 1273 82.20% 13.94% 3.86%+2.57 +6.1 22
1951-03-17 @ Coleraine L 1-435.2 1273 1639 3.86% 13.94% 82.20%-2.57 -6.1 8
1951-03-17 Lisburn Distillery D 1-164.9 1460 1549 49.61% 14.46% 35.92%+0.02 -1.8 14
1951-03-17 @ Crusaders D 1-164.9 1549 1460 35.92% 14.46% 49.61%-0.02 +1.8 19
1951-03-17 Linfield D 1-174.5 1858 1783 67.89% 14.39% 17.72%+0.94 -7.0 28
1951-03-17 @ Glentoran D 1-174.5 1783 1858 17.72% 14.39% 67.89%-0.94 +7.0 25
1951-03-17 Glenavon L 1-265.4 1630 1714 50.27% 14.46% 35.27%+0.04 -27.2 21
1951-03-17 @ Portadown W 2-165.4 1714 1630 35.27% 14.46% 50.27%-0.04 +27.2 24
1951-03-21 Cliftonville D 4-469.2 1458 1273 75.57% 14.27% 10.16%+1.56 -5.1 15
1951-03-21 @ Crusaders D 4-469.2 1273 1458 10.16% 14.27% 75.57%-1.56 +5.1 12
1951-03-24 Coleraine L 2-345.9 1229 1645 12.81% 14.20% 72.99%-1.82 -7.5 12
1951-03-24 @ Ballymena United W 3-245.9 1645 1229 72.99% 14.20% 12.81%+1.82 +7.5 24
1951-03-24 Crusaders L 0-336.0 1276 1453 37.09% 14.45% 48.47%-0.49 -60.6 10
1951-03-24 @ Bangor W 3-036.0 1453 1276 48.47% 14.45% 37.09%+0.49 +60.6 17
1951-03-24 Portadown W 1-053.3 1267 1603 18.92% 14.31% 66.77%-1.38 +38.0 10
1951-03-24 @ Derry City L 0-153.3 1603 1267 66.77% 14.31% 18.92%+1.38 -38.0 21
1951-03-24 Glentoran L 1-363.3 1741 1851 46.71% 14.46% 38.82%-0.10 -44.2 24
1951-03-24 @ Glenavon W 3-163.3 1851 1741 38.82% 14.46% 46.71%+0.10 +44.1 30
1951-03-24 Cliftonville W 3-035.3 1790 1278 84.72% 13.57% 1.71%+3.40 +3.2 27
1951-03-24 @ Linfield L 0-335.3 1278 1790 1.71% 13.57% 84.72%-3.40 -3.2 12
1951-03-24 Ards W 2-139.4 1550 1316 77.93% 14.20% 7.87%+1.83 +5.0 21
1951-03-24 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-239.4 1316 1550 7.87% 14.20% 77.93%-1.83 -5.0 8
1951-03-27 Linfield L 0-338.9 1311 1793 9.10% 14.08% 76.81%-2.20 -16.6 8
1951-03-27 @ Ards W 3-038.9 1793 1311 76.81% 14.08% 9.10%+2.20 +16.6 29
1951-03-27 Bangor W 4-027.2 1275 1215 66.57% 14.41% 19.02%+0.85 +43.6 14
1951-03-27 @ Cliftonville L 0-427.2 1215 1275 19.02% 14.41% 66.57%-0.85 -43.6 10
1951-03-27 Glenavon L 1-454.9 1514 1697 36.34% 14.44% 49.22%-0.52 -50.2 17
1951-03-27 @ Crusaders W 4-154.9 1697 1514 49.22% 14.44% 36.34%+0.52 +50.2 26
1951-03-27 Ballymena United W 3-135.2 1305 1222 68.62% 14.39% 16.99%+0.98 +17.9 12
1951-03-27 @ Derry City L 1-335.2 1222 1305 16.99% 14.39% 68.62%-0.98 -17.9 12
1951-03-27 Coleraine W 3-258.4 1895 1652 78.30% 14.18% 7.52%+1.88 +4.5 32
1951-03-27 @ Glentoran L 2-358.4 1652 1895 7.52% 14.18% 78.30%-1.88 -4.5 24
1951-03-27 Lisburn Distillery W 3-043.9 1565 1555 61.62% 14.44% 23.94%+0.57 +41.1 23
1951-03-27 @ Portadown L 0-343.9 1555 1565 23.94% 14.44% 61.62%-0.57 -41.1 21
1951-03-31 Crusaders L 1-246.0 1295 1464 38.32% 14.45% 47.23%-0.43 -21.5 8
1951-03-31 @ Ards W 2-146.0 1464 1295 47.23% 14.45% 38.32%+0.43 +21.5 19
1951-03-31 Lisburn Distillery D 2-261.4 1204 1514 21.31% 14.34% 64.35%-1.23 +4.4 13
1951-03-31 @ Ballymena United D 2-261.4 1514 1204 64.35% 14.34% 21.31%+1.23 -4.5 22
1951-03-31 Glentoran L 0-439.2 1318 1899 5.36% 13.87% 80.77%-2.76 -12.9 14
1951-03-31 @ Cliftonville W 4-039.2 1899 1318 80.77% 13.87% 5.36%+2.76 +12.9 34
1951-03-31 Bangor W 3-134.1 1648 1171 84.24% 13.67% 2.08%+3.20 +2.3 26
1951-03-31 @ Coleraine L 1-334.1 1171 1648 2.08% 13.67% 84.24%-3.20 -2.3 10
1951-03-31 Derry City D 1-167.4 1747 1323 83.41% 13.81% 2.79%+2.90 -12.0 27
1951-03-31 @ Glenavon D 1-167.4 1323 1747 2.79% 13.81% 83.41%-2.90 +12.0 13
1951-03-31 Portadown W 4-256.0 1810 1606 76.51% 14.24% 9.25%+1.66 +9.0 31
1951-03-31 @ Linfield L 2-456.0 1606 1810 9.25% 14.24% 76.51%-1.66 -9.0 23
1951-04-14 Glenavon L 0-136.0 1169 1735 5.80% 13.90% 80.29%-2.67 -3.9 10
1951-04-14 @ Bangor W 1-036.0 1735 1169 80.29% 13.90% 5.80%+2.67 +3.9 29
1951-04-14 Ards W 3-243.2 1335 1273 66.73% 14.41% 18.86%+0.86 +10.8 15
1951-04-14 @ Derry City L 2-343.2 1273 1335 18.86% 14.41% 66.73%-0.86 -10.8 8
1951-04-14 Crusaders W 4-147.0 1912 1485 83.46% 13.80% 2.74%+2.92 +4.3 36
1951-04-14 @ Glentoran L 1-447.0 1485 1912 2.74% 13.80% 83.46%-2.92 -4.3 19
1951-04-14 Ballymena United D 1-166.0 1819 1208 85.74% 13.28% 0.98%+3.95 -12.6 32
1951-04-14 @ Linfield D 1-166.0 1208 1819 0.98% 13.28% 85.74%-3.95 +12.6 14
1951-04-14 Cliftonville L 2-363.5 1510 1305 76.55% 14.24% 9.20%+1.67 -39.3 22
1951-04-14 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-263.5 1305 1510 9.20% 14.24% 76.55%-1.67 +39.3 16
1951-04-14 Coleraine W 3-049.2 1597 1650 54.29% 14.46% 31.25%+0.22 +52.2 25
1951-04-14 @ Portadown L 0-349.2 1650 1597 31.25% 14.46% 54.29%-0.22 -52.2 26
1951-04-21 Glentoran L 0-240.3 1221 1917 2.85% 13.57% 83.58%-3.40 -3.6 14
1951-04-21 @ Ballymena United W 2-040.3 1917 1221 83.58% 13.57% 2.85%+3.40 +3.6 38
1951-04-21 Derry City D 2-259.7 1165 1346 36.68% 14.44% 48.87%-0.50 +1.2 11
1951-04-21 @ Bangor D 2-259.7 1346 1165 48.87% 14.44% 36.68%+0.50 -1.2 16
1951-04-21 Ards W 5-027.2 1598 1263 81.44% 14.01% 4.55%+2.40 +13.6 28
1951-04-21 @ Coleraine L 0-527.2 1263 1598 4.55% 14.01% 81.44%-2.40 -13.6 8
1951-04-21 Portadown W 1-056.5 1481 1650 38.33% 14.45% 47.22%-0.43 +27.3 21
1951-04-21 @ Crusaders L 0-156.5 1650 1481 47.22% 14.45% 38.33%+0.43 -27.3 25
1951-04-21 Cliftonville W 4-248.0 1739 1345 82.84% 13.88% 3.29%+2.74 +3.3 31
1951-04-21 @ Glenavon L 2-448.0 1345 1739 3.29% 13.88% 82.84%-2.74 -3.3 16
1951-04-21 Linfield L 0-151.2 1471 1806 18.94% 14.31% 66.75%-1.37 -12.1 22
1951-04-21 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-051.2 1806 1471 66.75% 14.31% 18.94%+1.37 +12.1 34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1951-01-31 7.33% Ballymena United 1400 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1647 1
2 1951-04-14 9.20% Cliftonville 1305 3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1510 2
3 1950-12-25 11.97% Portadown 1506 7 @ Glenavon 1660 2
4 1950-12-02 17.14% Glenavon 1556 4 @ Lisburn Distillery 1638 1
5 1951-01-27 17.83% @ Cliftonville 1275 1 Glenavon 1624 0
6 1951-03-24 18.92% @ Derry City 1267 1 Portadown 1603 0
7 1951-01-13 19.27% @ Ballymena United 1373 3 Linfield 1705 2
8 1951-03-03 20.27% Bangor 1307 2 @ Ballymena United 1354 0
9 1950-12-23 21.73% @ Coleraine 1411 1 Linfield 1717 0
10 1950-12-26 22.74% Bangor 1381 2 @ Crusaders 1402 1
11 1950-12-09 23.49% Portadown 1427 2 @ Ballymena United 1441 0
12 1950-12-30 24.93% @ Coleraine 1473 1 Glentoran 1748 0
13 1951-01-13 30.76% Derry City 1325 2 @ Ards 1276 1
14 1951-03-17 35.27% Glenavon 1714 2 @ Portadown 1630 1
15 1951-04-21 38.33% @ Crusaders 1481 1 Portadown 1650 0
16 1950-12-23 38.38% @ Cliftonville 1309 2 Derry City 1478 0
17 1951-03-24 38.82% Glentoran 1851 3 @ Glenavon 1741 1
18 1951-02-24 39.17% Crusaders 1404 1 @ Derry City 1292 0
19 1950-12-02 40.29% Glentoran 1640 2 @ Derry City 1520 1
20 1951-01-13 40.49% @ Coleraine 1507 2 Portadown 1661 0
21 1950-11-25 41.78% Lisburn Distillery 1568 3 @ Coleraine 1437 0
22 1951-03-03 42.35% Glentoran 1766 2 @ Portadown 1632 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1950-12-25 128.84 Portadown 7 1506 11.97% @ Glenavon 2 1660 73.72% 14.31%
2 1950-12-02 90.08 Glenavon 4 1556 17.14% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1638 68.47% 14.39%
3 1951-01-06 85.01 @ Crusaders 8 1339 58.00% Ards 1 1361 27.54% 14.45%
4 1951-01-31 74.53 Coleraine 5 1579 42.84% @ Bangor 1 1441 42.70% 14.46%
5 1951-02-03 73.50 Glenavon 5 1585 43.53% @ Ballymena United 1 1442 42.01% 14.46%
6 1951-03-03 70.06 Bangor 2 1307 20.27% @ Ballymena United 0 1354 65.31% 14.42%
7 1950-11-25 69.93 Lisburn Distillery 3 1568 41.78% @ Coleraine 0 1437 43.76% 14.46%
8 1950-12-09 66.57 Portadown 2 1427 23.49% @ Ballymena United 0 1441 62.07% 14.44%
9 1951-01-06 65.57 Glenavon 3 1543 44.94% @ Derry City 0 1391 40.60% 14.46%
10 1951-03-03 64.41 @ Ards 3 1203 45.77% Cliftonville 0 1319 39.77% 14.46%
11 1951-02-03 63.55 Linfield 6 1694 66.71% @ Derry City 0 1359 18.98% 14.31%
12 1950-12-09 62.59 Glentoran 5 1665 50.66% @ Ards 1 1471 34.90% 14.44%
13 1950-12-09 62.51 @ Coleraine 6 1348 57.86% Cliftonville 1 1372 27.69% 14.45%
14 1951-03-24 60.62 Crusaders 3 1453 48.47% @ Bangor 0 1276 37.09% 14.45%
15 1950-12-09 59.58 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1548 67.94% Bangor 0 1472 17.66% 14.39%
16 1951-03-17 55.43 @ Ards 3 1261 52.08% Bangor 0 1331 33.46% 14.46%
17 1951-04-14 52.20 @ Portadown 3 1597 54.29% Coleraine 0 1650 31.25% 14.46%
18 1950-12-25 52.11 @ Ballymena United 4 1378 62.43% Cliftonville 0 1361 23.13% 14.43%
19 1950-12-23 51.41 @ Cliftonville 2 1309 38.38% Derry City 0 1478 47.17% 14.45%
20 1951-03-27 50.23 Glenavon 4 1697 49.22% @ Crusaders 1 1514 36.34% 14.44%
21 1951-01-13 49.38 @ Coleraine 2 1507 40.49% Portadown 0 1661 45.06% 14.46%
22 1951-03-03 47.60 Glentoran 2 1766 42.35% @ Portadown 0 1632 43.19% 14.46%
23 1951-03-10 46.44 Portadown 4 1584 52.34% @ Bangor 1 1377 33.23% 14.43%
24 1951-03-10 44.19 Glentoran 4 1814 54.17% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1593 31.41% 14.42%
25 1951-03-24 44.15 Glentoran 3 1851 38.82% @ Glenavon 1 1741 46.71% 14.46%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-02-03 76.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1605 54.81% Coleraine 2 1653 30.73% 14.46%
2 1951-03-17 74.5 @ Glentoran 1 1858 67.89% Linfield 1 1783 17.72% 14.39%
3 1951-02-10 74.3 @ Cliftonville 4 1311 21.47% Portadown 4 1620 64.19% 14.35%
4 1951-03-03 73.3 @ Coleraine 1 1650 54.07% Glenavon 1 1705 31.47% 14.46%
5 1950-12-09 73.1 @ Glenavon 1 1646 55.74% Linfield 1 1687 29.80% 14.46%
6 1951-03-03 71.3 @ Crusaders 1 1431 17.61% Linfield 1 1782 68.10% 14.29%
7 1951-01-13 69.4 @ Crusaders 1 1424 23.39% Glentoran 1 1714 62.24% 14.36%
8 1951-01-13 69.3 @ Ballymena United 3 1373 19.27% Linfield 2 1705 66.41% 14.32%
9 1951-03-21 69.2 @ Crusaders 4 1458 75.57% Cliftonville 4 1273 10.16% 14.27%
10 1951-03-31 67.4 @ Glenavon 1 1747 83.41% Derry City 1 1323 2.79% 13.81%
11 1950-12-23 67.3 @ Crusaders 3 1419 65.14% Ballymena United 3 1374 20.44% 14.42%
12 1951-01-31 66.9 Ballymena United 2 1400 7.33% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1647 78.50% 14.18%
13 1951-04-14 66.0 @ Linfield 1 1819 85.74% Ballymena United 1 1208 0.98% 13.28%
14 1951-01-25 65.8 @ Derry City 1 1355 20.25% Lisburn Distillery 1 1676 65.42% 14.33%
15 1951-03-17 65.4 Glenavon 2 1714 35.27% @ Portadown 1 1630 50.27% 14.46%
16 1950-12-02 64.9 Linfield 5 1654 44.31% @ Bangor 3 1506 41.23% 14.46%
17 1951-03-17 64.9 @ Crusaders 1 1460 49.61% Lisburn Distillery 1 1549 35.92% 14.46%
18 1950-12-25 64.4 Portadown 7 1506 11.97% @ Glenavon 2 1660 73.72% 14.31%
19 1950-12-02 64.1 Glenavon 4 1556 17.14% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1638 68.47% 14.39%
20 1951-04-14 63.5 Cliftonville 3 1305 9.20% @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1510 76.55% 14.24%
21 1951-03-24 63.3 Glentoran 3 1851 38.82% @ Glenavon 1 1741 46.71% 14.46%
22 1950-12-30 62.8 @ Coleraine 1 1473 24.93% Glentoran 0 1748 60.69% 14.38%
23 1950-12-23 61.4 @ Coleraine 1 1411 21.73% Linfield 0 1717 63.92% 14.35%
24 1951-03-31 61.4 @ Ballymena United 2 1204 21.31% Lisburn Distillery 2 1514 64.35% 14.34%
25 1951-01-06 61.1 @ Portadown 2 1641 50.13% Linfield 1 1725 35.41% 14.46%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1951-03-27 27.2 @ Cliftonville 4 1275 66.57% Bangor 0 1215 19.02% 14.41%
2 1951-04-21 27.2 @ Coleraine 5 1598 81.44% Ards 0 1263 4.55% 14.01%
3 1950-12-25 30.5 @ Ballymena United 4 1378 62.43% Cliftonville 0 1361 23.13% 14.43%
4 1950-12-30 30.6 @ Glenavon 4 1514 73.20% Crusaders 0 1368 12.48% 14.32%
5 1951-03-10 30.7 @ Glenavon 4 1708 83.69% Ards 0 1267 2.55% 13.77%
6 1951-02-03 33.4 @ Portadown 1 1617 82.80% Ards 0 1225 3.32% 13.88%
7 1951-03-17 33.5 @ Ards 3 1261 52.08% Bangor 0 1331 33.46% 14.46%
8 1951-03-17 33.6 @ Cliftonville 2 1241 58.27% Ballymena United 0 1261 27.28% 14.45%
9 1951-03-31 34.1 @ Coleraine 3 1648 84.24% Bangor 1 1171 2.08% 13.67%
10 1951-01-06 34.2 @ Crusaders 8 1339 58.00% Ards 1 1361 27.54% 14.45%
11 1951-03-03 35.0 @ Ards 3 1203 45.77% Cliftonville 0 1319 39.77% 14.46%
12 1951-02-12 35.1 @ Cliftonville 3 1314 69.26% Ards 1 1223 16.36% 14.38%
13 1950-12-09 35.2 @ Coleraine 6 1348 57.86% Cliftonville 1 1372 27.69% 14.45%
14 1950-12-26 35.2 @ Coleraine 3 1430 60.53% Ballymena United 0 1430 25.02% 14.44%
15 1951-03-17 35.2 @ Coleraine 4 1639 82.20% Derry City 1 1273 3.86% 13.94%
16 1951-03-27 35.2 @ Derry City 3 1305 68.62% Ballymena United 1 1222 16.99% 14.39%
17 1951-03-24 35.3 @ Linfield 3 1790 84.72% Cliftonville 0 1278 1.71% 13.57%
18 1950-11-25 35.4 @ Glenavon 4 1513 66.64% Ballymena United 0 1452 18.96% 14.41%
19 1951-02-24 35.8 @ Glentoran 7 1763 85.24% Ards 2 1206 1.32% 13.44%
20 1951-03-03 35.9 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1587 81.08% Derry City 1 1265 4.88% 14.04%
21 1951-03-24 36.0 Crusaders 3 1453 48.47% @ Bangor 0 1276 37.09% 14.45%
22 1951-04-14 36.0 Glenavon 1 1735 80.29% @ Bangor 0 1169 5.80% 13.90%
23 1950-12-30 36.8 @ Linfield 3 1717 81.77% Ards 0 1369 4.24% 13.98%
24 1950-12-26 36.9 @ Portadown 6 1635 75.92% Derry City 0 1443 9.82% 14.26%
25 1950-12-09 37.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1548 67.94% Bangor 0 1472 17.66% 14.39%