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1985-86 Irish League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

43 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Linfield

4.87 points above expected

43 points · 38.13 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glentoran

5.05 points below expected

31 points · 36.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 26 20 3 3 43 59 16 +43 38.13 +4.87
2 Coleraine 26 16 3 7 35 51 31 +20 31.15 +3.85
3 Ards 26 12 7 7 31 37 19 +18 27.58 +3.42
4 Glentoran 26 14 3 9 31 42 26 +16 36.05 -5.05
5 Crusaders 26 13 5 8 31 42 34 +8 27.09 +3.91
6 Larne 26 10 8 8 28 49 34 +15 24.48 +3.52
7 Ballymena United 26 10 7 9 27 43 30 +13 28.15 -1.15
8 Cliftonville 26 8 9 9 25 31 34 -3 25.32 -0.32
9 Lisburn Distillery 26 9 6 11 24 30 49 -19 23.25 +0.75
10 Portadown 26 10 3 13 23 22 32 -10 24.74 -1.74
11 Glenavon 26 5 11 10 21 26 36 -10 23.32 -2.32
12 Bangor 26 6 6 14 18 31 45 -14 18.42 -0.42
13 Newry City 26 6 5 15 17 28 59 -31 21.33 -4.33
14 Carrick Rangers 26 2 6 18 10 12 58 -46 14.99 -4.99

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Linfield 43 38.13 +4.87
2 Crusaders 31 27.09 +3.91
3 Coleraine 35 31.15 +3.85
4 Larne 28 24.48 +3.52
5 Ards 31 27.58 +3.42

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glentoran 31 36.05 -5.05
2 Carrick Rangers 10 14.99 -4.99
3 Newry City 17 21.33 -4.33
4 Glenavon 21 23.32 -2.32
5 Portadown 23 24.74 -1.74

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 7 Apr 1 – Apr 26 1 in 241
2 Linfield 11 Dec 7 – Jan 25 1 in 183
3 Lisburn Distillery 3 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 25
4 Glentoran 6 Dec 7 – Jan 1 1 in 22
5 Portadown 3 Dec 21 – Dec 28 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Newry City 5 Jan 25 – Mar 1 1 in 137
2 Portadown 4 Mar 25 – Apr 3 1 in 75
3 Carrick Rangers 8 Mar 29 – Apr 29 1 in 62
4 Ards 3 Mar 1 – Mar 22 1 in 44
5 Coleraine 2 Mar 22 – Mar 29 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 7 Apr 12 – May 8 1 in 94
2 Lisburn Distillery 7 Jan 25 – Mar 22 1 in 75
3 Ards 8 Apr 12 – May 9 1 in 42
4 Coleraine 10 Apr 1 – May 9 1 in 29
5 Crusaders 7 Mar 8 – Apr 5 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 6 Apr 12 – May 9 1 in 247
2 Bangor 13 Dec 26 – Mar 18 1 in 43
3 Portadown 8 Mar 25 – Apr 19 1 in 42
4 Glenavon 7 Dec 7 – Jan 4 1 in 32
5 Carrick Rangers 14 Mar 8 – May 9 1 in 27

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1393 43 -5 6 7.4 -1.4
Coleraine 1273 35 +12 8 6.6 +1.4
Ards 1224 31 +10 7 5.1 +1.9
Crusaders 1187 31 -8 4 5.8 -1.8
Glentoran 1283 31 -37 3 7.4 -4.4
Larne 1199 28 +35 6 5.9 +0.1
Ballymena United 1193 27 +5 5 5.4 -0.4
Cliftonville 1161 25 +2 5 4.0 +1.0
Lisburn Distillery 1091 24 -42 4 4.7 -0.7
Portadown 1115 23 +13 7 4.8 +2.2
Glenavon 1113 21 +10 6 3.9 +2.1
Bangor 1056 18 +25 5 3.8 +1.2
Newry City 1041 17 -3 4 3.7 +0.3
Carrick Rangers 937 10 -22 1 2.5 -1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CR CLI COL CRU GLE GLE LAR LIN LD NC POR
Ards —
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.90
2-0-0
3.84
1-1-0
3.08
1-1-0
2.33
0-0-2
2.87
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
1.79
0-1-1
3.08
2-0-0
1.52
2-0-0
3.25
0-1-1
3.92
1-0-1
3.37
Ballymena United
1-0-1
2.85
—
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.16
1-0-1
3.11
0-0-2
2.31
0-2-0
2.80
1-1-0
3.24
0-0-2
1.91
0-1-1
3.21
0-1-1
1.52
1-1-0
3.35
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.26
Bangor
0-1-1
1.65
0-0-2
1.66
—
1-1-0
3.08
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
1.11
1-0-1
2.07
0-1-1
0.93
0-1-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
1.98
Carrick Rangers
0-0-2
1.71
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.44
—
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
1.08
0-0-2
1.49
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
0.95
0-1-1
1.94
0-0-2
0.72
0-2-0
1.87
2-0-0
2.08
0-0-2
1.63
Cliftonville
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
3.64
1-1-0
3.97
—
1-0-1
2.19
1-0-1
2.45
0-2-0
3.09
0-1-1
1.61
1-1-0
2.59
0-0-2
1.41
1-1-0
2.96
1-1-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.83
Coleraine
0-1-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
4.51
1-0-1
3.34
—
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.85
1-0-1
2.29
2-0-0
3.38
1-0-1
1.86
0-1-1
3.63
2-0-0
4.01
2-0-0
3.46
Crusaders
2-0-0
2.65
0-2-0
2.72
2-0-0
3.72
2-0-0
4.07
1-0-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.18
—
1-1-0
3.34
1-0-1
1.74
0-1-1
3.17
0-0-2
1.48
1-0-1
3.36
1-1-0
3.48
1-0-1
3.33
Glenavon
0-1-1
2.27
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.26
1-1-0
3.57
0-2-0
2.44
0-1-1
1.70
0-1-1
2.19
—
2-0-0
1.36
0-1-1
2.63
0-0-2
1.36
0-0-2
2.87
0-1-1
3.14
1-1-0
2.45
Glentoran
1-1-0
3.75
2-0-0
3.63
1-0-1
4.48
2-0-0
4.66
1-1-0
3.94
1-0-1
3.24
1-0-1
3.81
0-0-2
4.20
—
1-1-0
3.96
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
4.21
2-0-0
4.20
1-0-1
3.92
Larne
1-1-0
2.45
1-1-0
2.31
1-0-1
3.47
1-1-0
3.60
0-1-1
2.93
0-0-2
2.15
1-1-0
2.36
1-1-0
2.89
0-1-1
1.59
—
0-1-1
1.24
1-0-1
3.06
2-0-0
3.24
1-0-1
2.87
Linfield
0-0-2
4.04
1-1-0
4.04
1-1-0
4.67
2-0-0
4.94
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.69
2-0-0
4.07
2-0-0
4.22
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
4.33
—
2-0-0
4.28
2-0-0
4.49
2-0-0
4.39
Lisburn Distillery
0-0-2
2.28
0-1-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.27
0-2-0
3.67
0-1-1
2.56
1-1-0
1.91
1-0-1
2.17
2-0-0
2.66
1-0-1
1.35
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
1.29
—
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.62
Newry City
1-1-0
1.63
0-0-2
2.16
1-1-0
2.96
0-0-2
3.45
0-1-1
2.09
0-0-2
1.54
0-1-1
2.05
1-1-0
2.38
0-0-2
1.37
0-0-2
2.30
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
2.48
—
2-0-0
2.33
Portadown
1-0-1
2.16
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
3.56
2-0-0
3.92
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
2.08
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
1.62
1-0-1
2.66
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
3.20
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.82 +5.9
Allowed 0.73 -5.5
Differential 0.92 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%8.24%6.59%2.75%2.47%1.65%29.40%
18.24%10.99%8.52%3.02%1.37%1.65%33.79%
26.59%8.52%3.30%0.82%0.82%0.27%20.33%
32.75%3.02%0.82%0.55%0.55%—7.69%
42.47%1.37%0.82%0.55%——5.22%
5+1.65%1.65%0.27%———3.57%
Total29.40%33.79%20.33%7.69%5.22%3.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.38 +0.00
SD 1.37 1.37 2.12
CV 0.99 0.99 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%3.85%———26.92%
17.69%11.54%11.54%3.85%——34.62%
211.54%7.69%————19.23%
37.69%—————7.69%
47.69%3.85%————11.54%
5+———————
Total50.00%30.77%15.38%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 0.73 +0.69
SD 1.30 0.87 1.74
CV 0.91 1.20 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%15.38%7.69%———34.62%
13.85%11.54%7.69%——3.85%26.92%
27.69%3.85%————11.54%
3—7.69%—3.85%——11.54%
43.85%—3.85%———7.69%
5+—7.69%————7.69%
Total26.92%46.15%19.23%3.85%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.65 1.15 +0.50
SD 1.92 1.12 2.21
CV 1.16 0.97 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%7.69%3.85%—3.85%26.92%
13.85%15.38%19.23%3.85%—3.85%46.15%
27.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
3————3.85%—3.85%
4—7.69%————7.69%
5+———————
Total15.38%34.62%30.77%7.69%3.85%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.73 -0.54
SD 1.13 1.37 1.90
CV 0.95 0.79 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%15.38%19.23%3.85%11.54%7.69%65.38%
13.85%11.54%3.85%—3.85%3.85%26.92%
2——3.85%———3.85%
3—3.85%————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%30.77%26.92%3.85%15.38%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.46 2.23 -1.77
SD 0.76 1.77 2.01
CV 1.65 0.79 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%7.69%3.85%—3.85%—30.77%
17.69%19.23%7.69%3.85%——38.46%
2—11.54%—3.85%3.85%—19.23%
3—3.85%————3.85%
43.85%——3.85%——7.69%
5+———————
Total26.92%42.31%11.54%11.54%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.31 -0.12
SD 1.17 1.23 1.53
CV 0.98 0.94 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.85%3.85%3.85%——11.54%
17.69%7.69%11.54%——3.85%30.77%
219.23%11.54%3.85%———34.62%
3—7.69%————7.69%
43.85%3.85%—3.85%——11.54%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total30.77%38.46%19.23%7.69%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.96 1.19 +0.77
SD 1.54 1.20 2.12
CV 0.78 1.01 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
111.54%3.85%11.54%7.69%——34.62%
23.85%19.23%7.69%———30.77%
33.85%3.85%——3.85%—11.54%
4—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
5+———————
Total26.92%34.62%23.08%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.31 +0.31
SD 1.13 1.12 1.52
CV 0.70 0.86 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%7.69%——38.46%
17.69%23.08%3.85%———34.62%
23.85%3.85%7.69%—3.85%—19.23%
3———3.85%——3.85%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+———————
Total23.08%34.62%26.92%11.54%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.38 -0.38
SD 1.06 1.10 1.55
CV 1.06 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
119.23%3.85%11.54%—3.85%—38.46%
211.54%3.85%—3.85%3.85%—23.08%
33.85%—3.85%———7.69%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+3.85%3.85%————7.69%
Total50.00%19.23%19.23%3.85%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.00 +0.62
SD 1.42 1.26 1.98
CV 0.88 1.26 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%7.69%———23.08%
1—15.38%3.85%7.69%—3.85%30.77%
23.85%7.69%7.69%———19.23%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4———————
5+11.54%—3.85%———15.38%
Total30.77%34.62%23.08%7.69%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.88 1.31 +0.58
SD 1.84 1.49 2.66
CV 0.98 1.14 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%3.85%———11.54%
111.54%7.69%3.85%———23.08%
211.54%11.54%————23.08%
37.69%11.54%3.85%———23.08%
47.69%—————7.69%
5+7.69%3.85%————11.54%
Total50.00%38.46%11.54%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 0.62 +1.65
SD 1.51 0.70 1.81
CV 0.67 1.13 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%7.69%7.69%30.77%
17.69%15.38%3.85%3.85%3.85%—34.62%
23.85%15.38%3.85%3.85%——26.92%
33.85%—————3.85%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total19.23%34.62%15.38%11.54%11.54%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.88 -0.73
SD 1.05 1.66 2.29
CV 0.91 0.88 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%—7.69%7.69%3.85%30.77%
111.54%3.85%11.54%11.54%3.85%3.85%46.15%
23.85%—7.69%——3.85%15.38%
3——3.85%———3.85%
4———————
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total23.08%11.54%23.08%19.23%11.54%11.54%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 2.27 -1.19
SD 1.13 1.82 2.26
CV 1.05 0.80 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%19.23%11.54%3.85%3.85%—46.15%
111.54%3.85%7.69%—3.85%—26.92%
23.85%19.23%————23.08%
33.85%—————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total26.92%42.31%19.23%3.85%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 1.23 -0.38
SD 0.92 1.14 1.68
CV 1.09 0.93 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1393 43 38.13 +4.87 92.0% 30 32 36 38 41 44 46
Glentoran 1283 31 36.05 -5.05 13.0% 27 29 34 35 39 43 48
Coleraine 1273 35 31.15 +3.85 85.0% 23 24 28 31 34 38 43
Ards 1224 31 27.58 +3.42 85.0% 20 21 25 27 31 33 36
Larne 1199 28 24.48 +3.52 81.0% 13 16 22 24 27 33 43
Ballymena United 1193 27 28.15 -1.15 49.0% 18 21 25 28 31 36 42
Crusaders 1187 31 27.09 +3.91 83.0% 19 20 24 27 30 32 37
Cliftonville 1161 25 25.32 -0.32 53.0% 15 18 22 25 28 31 40
Portadown 1115 23 24.74 -1.74 41.0% 15 18 21 25 28 31 35
Glenavon 1113 21 23.32 -2.32 39.0% 15 17 21 23 26 30 33
Lisburn Distillery 1091 24 23.25 +0.75 68.0% 14 17 21 23 26 29 34
Bangor 1056 18 18.42 -0.42 53.0% 8 11 16 18 21 26 29
Newry City 1041 17 21.33 -4.33 17.0% 12 12 19 21 24 27 32
Carrick Rangers 937 10 14.99 -4.99 15.0% 4 8 12 15 18 22 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.74%
Clear Edge
45.60%22.53%31.87%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
048.03400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Linfield, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Comfortable
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.36 * Some Luck: 3.36 to 5.04 * Lucky: 5.04 to 6.72 * Wild Swing: 6.72 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.31 * Off: 2.31 to 3.08 * Way Off: 3.08 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.36 points
As Expected
04.2011
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.43
Pinpoint
01.924
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
92.00%
Linfield
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
13.00%
Glentoran
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.17
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 115.49
1.84
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Occasional
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.67
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.81
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.05
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.02
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.059
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Linfield66.00%23.00%8.00%1.00%2.00%—————————
Coleraine5.00%15.00%29.00%20.00%7.00%9.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%2.00%————
Ards—3.00%11.00%21.00%10.00%18.00%12.00%6.00%5.00%7.00%4.00%3.00%——
Glentoran24.00%46.00%19.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%———————
Crusaders1.00%—8.00%18.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%5.00%2.00%——
Larne1.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%9.00%5.00%12.00%13.00%12.00%8.00%8.00%7.00%10.00%2.00%
Ballymena United2.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%14.00%16.00%13.00%11.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%—
Cliftonville—1.00%3.00%6.00%16.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%
Lisburn Distillery——2.00%1.00%6.00%6.00%9.00%4.00%13.00%21.00%18.00%9.00%7.00%4.00%
Portadown1.00%—3.00%8.00%11.00%9.00%8.00%9.00%13.00%13.00%11.00%6.00%6.00%2.00%
Glenavon——4.00%4.00%2.00%7.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%13.00%13.00%9.00%2.00%
Bangor———1.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%2.00%3.00%13.00%22.00%30.00%20.00%
Newry City———1.00%4.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%9.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%
Carrick Rangers———————1.00%1.00%—8.00%10.00%20.00%60.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Carrick Rangers 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Newry City 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1985-12-07 Crusaders L 1-348.0 1158 1154 48.43% 23.76% 27.81%+0.34 -12.1 0
1985-12-07 @ Ards W 3-148.0 1154 1158 27.81% 23.76% 48.43%-0.34 +12.1 2
1985-12-07 Newry City W 3-140.4 1166 1124 52.90% 23.51% 23.59%+0.58 +6.8 2
1985-12-07 @ Ballymena United L 1-340.4 1124 1166 23.59% 23.51% 52.90%-0.58 -6.8 0
1985-12-07 Bangor W 4-348.3 1165 1051 60.45% 22.68% 16.87%+1.05 +2.7 2
1985-12-07 @ Cliftonville L 3-448.3 1051 1165 16.87% 22.68% 60.45%-1.05 -2.7 0
1985-12-07 Linfield L 0-333.3 1147 1329 24.15% 23.05% 52.80%-0.87 -11.5 0
1985-12-07 @ Glenavon W 3-033.3 1329 1147 52.80% 23.05% 24.15%+0.87 +11.5 2
1985-12-07 Portadown W 1-034.5 1298 1144 63.96% 22.06% 13.98%+1.30 +2.6 2
1985-12-07 @ Glentoran L 0-134.5 1144 1298 13.98% 22.06% 63.96%-1.30 -2.6 0
1985-12-07 Carrick Rangers W 5-031.0 1120 1037 57.37% 23.10% 19.53%+0.84 +15.6 2
1985-12-07 @ Larne L 0-531.0 1037 1120 19.53% 23.10% 57.37%-0.84 -15.6 0
1985-12-07 Coleraine D 1-153.5 1136 1239 33.75% 23.75% 42.50%-0.36 +0.3 1
1985-12-07 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-153.5 1239 1136 42.50% 23.75% 33.75%+0.36 -0.3 1
1985-12-14 Larne W 2-039.9 1048 1136 35.92% 23.82% 40.27%-0.25 +12.0 2
1985-12-14 @ Bangor L 0-239.9 1136 1048 40.27% 23.82% 35.92%+0.25 -12.0 2
1985-12-14 Ards L 0-335.1 1021 1146 30.92% 23.61% 45.46%-0.49 -14.2 0
1985-12-14 @ Carrick Rangers W 3-035.1 1146 1021 45.46% 23.61% 30.92%+0.49 +14.2 2
1985-12-14 Cliftonville W 3-139.6 1238 1168 56.04% 23.24% 20.72%+0.76 +6.1 3
1985-12-14 @ Coleraine L 1-339.6 1168 1238 20.72% 23.24% 56.04%-0.76 -6.1 2
1985-12-14 Ballymena United D 0-049.0 1166 1173 46.94% 23.81% 29.25%+0.26 -0.7 3
1985-12-14 @ Crusaders D 0-049.0 1173 1166 29.25% 23.81% 46.94%-0.26 +0.6 3
1985-12-14 Lisburn Distillery W 5-028.1 1341 1136 67.95% 21.10% 10.95%+1.63 +9.1 4
1985-12-14 @ Linfield L 0-528.1 1136 1341 10.95% 21.10% 67.95%-1.63 -9.1 1
1985-12-14 Glentoran L 0-532.5 1117 1300 24.12% 23.05% 52.83%-0.87 -18.6 0
1985-12-14 @ Newry City W 5-032.5 1300 1117 52.83% 23.05% 24.12%+0.87 +18.6 4
1985-12-14 Glenavon D 0-048.9 1141 1135 48.60% 23.75% 27.64%+0.35 -0.8 1
1985-12-14 @ Portadown D 0-048.9 1135 1141 27.64% 23.75% 48.60%-0.35 +0.8 1
1985-12-21 Carrick Rangers W 7-130.9 1173 1007 64.97% 21.85% 13.19%+1.38 +10.7 5
1985-12-21 @ Ballymena United L 1-730.9 1007 1173 13.19% 21.85% 64.97%-1.38 -10.7 0
1985-12-21 Coleraine W 2-151.6 1060 1245 24.00% 23.03% 52.96%-0.88 +7.5 4
1985-12-21 @ Bangor L 1-251.6 1245 1060 52.96% 23.03% 24.00%+0.88 -7.5 3
1985-12-21 Linfield L 0-137.8 1162 1350 23.61% 22.99% 53.40%-0.90 -4.1 2
1985-12-21 @ Cliftonville W 1-037.8 1350 1162 53.40% 22.99% 23.61%+0.90 +4.1 6
1985-12-21 Newry City D 2-259.0 1136 1099 52.34% 23.55% 24.11%+0.55 -0.7 2
1985-12-21 @ Glenavon D 2-259.0 1099 1136 24.11% 23.55% 52.34%-0.55 +0.7 1
1985-12-21 Crusaders W 1-034.6 1319 1165 63.95% 22.06% 13.99%+1.30 +2.6 6
1985-12-21 @ Glentoran L 0-134.6 1165 1319 13.99% 22.06% 63.95%-1.30 -2.6 3
1985-12-21 Ards W 2-145.9 1124 1160 43.00% 23.88% 33.11%+0.07 +5.2 4
1985-12-21 @ Larne L 1-245.9 1160 1124 33.11% 23.88% 43.00%-0.07 -5.2 2
1985-12-21 Portadown L 0-339.8 1127 1140 46.09% 23.83% 30.08%+0.22 -19.5 1
1985-12-21 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-039.8 1140 1127 30.08% 23.83% 46.09%-0.22 +19.5 3
1985-12-26 Ballymena United W 1-040.3 1155 1184 44.07% 23.87% 32.06%+0.12 +5.3 4
1985-12-26 @ Ards L 0-140.3 1184 1155 32.06% 23.87% 44.07%-0.12 -5.3 5
1985-12-26 Glentoran L 0-230.7 997 1322 12.59% 20.60% 66.81%-1.78 -4.4 0
1985-12-26 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-030.7 1322 997 66.81% 20.60% 12.59%+1.78 +4.3 8
1985-12-26 Larne W 7-132.5 1237 1129 59.86% 22.77% 17.37%+1.01 +13.8 5
1985-12-26 @ Coleraine L 1-732.5 1129 1237 17.37% 22.77% 59.86%-1.01 -13.8 4
1985-12-26 Glenavon D 1-153.4 1162 1135 51.20% 23.62% 25.17%+0.49 -0.9 4
1985-12-26 @ Crusaders D 1-153.4 1135 1162 25.17% 23.62% 51.20%-0.49 +0.9 3
1985-12-26 Bangor W 2-137.0 1354 1068 73.28% 19.30% 7.42%+2.15 +1.3 8
1985-12-26 @ Linfield L 1-237.0 1068 1354 7.42% 19.30% 73.28%-2.15 -1.3 4
1985-12-26 Lisburn Distillery W 3-249.7 1099 1107 46.83% 23.81% 29.36%+0.26 +4.5 3
1985-12-26 @ Newry City L 2-349.7 1107 1099 29.36% 23.81% 46.83%-0.26 -4.5 1
1985-12-26 Cliftonville W 2-144.4 1160 1158 48.08% 23.77% 28.15%+0.32 +4.5 5
1985-12-26 @ Portadown L 1-244.4 1158 1160 28.15% 23.77% 48.08%-0.32 -4.5 2
1985-12-28 Portadown L 0-140.9 1067 1164 34.48% 23.77% 41.75%-0.32 -5.6 4
1985-12-28 @ Bangor W 1-040.9 1164 1067 41.75% 23.77% 34.48%+0.32 +5.6 7
1985-12-28 Linfield L 0-238.8 1251 1355 33.56% 23.74% 42.70%-0.36 -10.4 5
1985-12-28 @ Coleraine W 2-038.8 1355 1251 42.70% 23.74% 33.56%+0.36 +10.4 10
1985-12-28 Carrick Rangers D 1-153.8 1136 992 63.09% 22.23% 14.67%+1.24 -1.7 4
1985-12-28 @ Glenavon D 1-153.8 992 1136 14.67% 22.23% 63.09%-1.24 +1.7 1
1985-12-28 Ards W 2-139.6 1326 1161 64.90% 21.86% 13.24%+1.37 +2.3 10
1985-12-28 @ Glentoran L 1-239.6 1161 1326 13.24% 21.86% 64.90%-1.37 -2.3 4
1985-12-28 Ballymena United D 0-048.9 1115 1179 39.26% 23.88% 36.86%-0.10 -0.1 5
1985-12-28 @ Larne D 0-048.9 1179 1115 36.86% 23.88% 39.26%+0.10 +0.1 6
1986-01-01 Glenavon W 2-035.5 1158 1134 50.80% 23.65% 25.56%+0.46 +8.4 6
1986-01-01 @ Ards L 0-235.5 1134 1158 25.56% 23.65% 50.80%-0.46 -8.4 4
1986-01-01 Glentoran L 0-139.2 1179 1328 27.90% 23.41% 48.69%-0.65 -4.8 6
1986-01-01 @ Ballymena United W 1-039.2 1328 1179 48.69% 23.41% 27.90%+0.65 +4.8 12
1986-01-01 Lisburn Distillery D 0-048.9 994 1103 32.99% 23.71% 43.30%-0.39 +0.4 2
1986-01-01 @ Carrick Rangers D 0-048.9 1103 994 43.30% 23.71% 32.99%+0.39 -0.4 2
1986-01-01 Larne W 3-135.3 1366 1115 71.09% 20.12% 8.79%+1.93 +2.7 12
1986-01-01 @ Linfield L 1-335.3 1115 1366 8.79% 20.12% 71.09%-1.93 -2.7 5
1986-01-01 Bangor W 5-136.0 1104 1061 53.02% 23.50% 23.48%+0.59 +12.4 5
1986-01-01 @ Newry City L 1-536.0 1061 1104 23.48% 23.50% 53.02%-0.59 -12.4 4
1986-01-01 Coleraine L 0-239.5 1170 1240 38.31% 23.87% 37.83%-0.14 -11.5 7
1986-01-01 @ Portadown W 2-039.5 1240 1170 37.83% 23.87% 38.31%+0.14 +11.6 7
1986-01-04 Crusaders L 0-140.2 1049 1162 32.45% 23.69% 43.86%-0.42 -5.4 4
1986-01-04 @ Bangor W 1-040.2 1162 1049 43.86% 23.69% 32.45%+0.42 +5.4 6
1986-01-04 Carrick Rangers D 0-049.4 1153 994 64.39% 21.97% 13.64%+1.33 -2.0 3
1986-01-04 @ Cliftonville D 0-049.4 994 1153 13.64% 21.97% 64.39%-1.33 +2.1 3
1986-01-04 Newry City W 4-135.2 1252 1116 62.39% 22.36% 15.25%+1.18 +6.5 9
1986-01-04 @ Coleraine L 1-435.2 1116 1252 15.25% 22.36% 62.39%-1.18 -6.5 5
1986-01-04 Ballymena United L 0-240.3 1126 1174 41.42% 23.89% 34.69%+0.00 -12.3 4
1986-01-04 @ Glenavon W 2-040.3 1174 1126 34.69% 23.89% 41.42%+0.00 +12.3 8
1986-01-04 Portadown W 2-030.7 1368 1158 68.31% 21.00% 10.69%+1.66 +3.8 14
1986-01-04 @ Linfield L 0-230.7 1158 1368 10.69% 21.00% 68.31%-1.66 -3.8 7
1986-01-04 Ards L 0-239.6 1102 1167 39.19% 23.88% 36.93%-0.10 -11.8 2
1986-01-04 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-039.6 1167 1102 36.93% 23.88% 39.19%+0.10 +11.8 8
1986-01-11 Cliftonville W 4-032.8 1178 1151 51.16% 23.62% 25.21%+0.48 +15.8 10
1986-01-11 @ Ards L 0-432.8 1151 1178 25.21% 23.62% 51.16%-0.48 -15.7 3
1986-01-11 Lisburn Distillery W 3-138.7 1186 1091 58.64% 22.94% 18.42%+0.93 +5.5 10
1986-01-11 @ Ballymena United L 1-338.7 1091 1186 18.42% 22.94% 58.64%-0.93 -5.5 2
1986-01-11 Coleraine W 2-148.3 1167 1258 35.34% 23.80% 40.86%-0.28 +6.1 8
1986-01-11 @ Crusaders L 1-248.3 1258 1167 40.86% 23.80% 35.34%+0.28 -6.1 9
1986-01-11 Glenavon L 0-150.6 1333 1114 68.97% 20.81% 10.22%+1.72 -10.3 12
1986-01-11 @ Glentoran W 1-050.6 1114 1333 10.22% 20.81% 68.97%-1.72 +10.3 6
1986-01-11 Newry City W 2-137.5 1372 1110 71.84% 19.85% 8.31%+2.00 +1.5 16
1986-01-11 @ Linfield L 1-237.5 1110 1372 8.31% 19.85% 71.84%-2.00 -1.5 5
1986-01-15 Cliftonville W 2-143.1 1173 1136 52.39% 23.55% 24.07%+0.55 +4.0 10
1986-01-15 @ Crusaders L 1-243.1 1136 1173 24.07% 23.55% 52.39%-0.55 -4.0 3
1986-01-18 Ards D 1-153.5 1043 1194 27.73% 23.40% 48.88%-0.66 +0.7 5
1986-01-18 @ Bangor D 1-153.5 1194 1043 48.88% 23.40% 27.73%+0.66 -0.7 11
1986-01-18 Ballymena United W 1-041.5 1132 1192 39.75% 23.88% 36.37%-0.08 +5.9 5
1986-01-18 @ Cliftonville L 0-141.5 1192 1132 36.37% 23.88% 39.75%+0.08 -5.9 10
1986-01-18 Carrick Rangers W 2-029.3 1252 996 71.42% 20.00% 8.57%+1.96 +3.0 11
1986-01-18 @ Coleraine L 0-229.3 996 1252 8.57% 20.00% 71.42%-1.96 -3.0 3
1986-01-18 Glenavon W 3-034.9 1112 1124 46.35% 23.83% 29.82%+0.24 +13.8 7
1986-01-18 @ Larne L 0-334.9 1124 1112 29.82% 23.83% 46.35%-0.24 -13.8 6
1986-01-18 Crusaders W 3-029.2 1374 1177 67.33% 21.27% 11.40%+1.58 +5.9 18
1986-01-18 @ Linfield L 0-329.2 1177 1374 11.40% 21.27% 67.33%-1.58 -5.8 10
1986-01-18 Glentoran L 0-135.9 1085 1323 18.90% 22.27% 58.83%-1.22 -3.4 2
1986-01-18 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-035.9 1323 1085 58.83% 22.27% 18.90%+1.22 +3.4 14
1986-01-18 Newry City L 0-146.5 1155 1108 53.42% 23.47% 23.11%+0.61 -8.1 7
1986-01-18 @ Portadown W 1-046.5 1108 1155 23.11% 23.47% 53.42%-0.61 +8.1 7
1986-01-21 Glentoran W 2-144.4 1380 1326 54.21% 23.41% 22.38%+0.65 +3.8 20
1986-01-21 @ Linfield L 1-244.4 1326 1380 22.38% 23.41% 54.21%-0.65 -3.8 14
1986-01-22 Lisburn Distillery W 4-136.4 1171 1082 58.01% 23.02% 18.97%+0.88 +8.0 12
1986-01-22 @ Crusaders L 1-436.4 1082 1171 18.97% 23.02% 58.01%-0.88 -8.0 2
1986-01-25 Coleraine W 1-041.8 1193 1255 39.50% 23.88% 36.62%-0.09 +5.9 13
1986-01-25 @ Ards L 0-141.8 1255 1193 36.62% 23.88% 39.50%+0.09 -5.9 11
1986-01-25 Bangor W 2-139.9 1186 1044 62.94% 22.26% 14.80%+1.22 +2.6 12
1986-01-25 @ Ballymena United L 1-239.9 1044 1186 14.80% 22.26% 62.94%-1.22 -2.6 5
1986-01-25 Linfield L 0-426.7 993 1383 9.27% 19.12% 71.62%-2.20 -6.0 3
1986-01-25 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-026.7 1383 993 71.62% 19.12% 9.27%+2.20 +6.0 22
1986-01-25 Glentoran L 2-348.1 1137 1322 23.93% 23.03% 53.04%-0.88 -3.7 5
1986-01-25 @ Cliftonville W 3-248.1 1322 1137 53.04% 23.03% 23.93%+0.88 +3.7 16
1986-01-25 Lisburn Distillery L 0-243.4 1110 1074 52.23% 23.56% 24.21%+0.54 -15.0 6
1986-01-25 @ Glenavon W 2-043.4 1074 1110 24.21% 23.56% 52.23%-0.54 +15.0 4
1986-01-25 Larne L 2-644.9 1116 1126 46.59% 23.82% 29.59%+0.25 -18.1 7
1986-01-25 @ Newry City W 6-244.9 1126 1116 29.59% 23.82% 46.59%-0.25 +18.2 9
1986-02-08 Glentoran L 0-329.9 1041 1326 15.19% 21.43% 63.38%-1.53 -7.6 5
1986-02-08 @ Bangor W 3-029.9 1326 1041 63.38% 21.43% 15.19%+1.53 +7.6 18
1986-02-08 Glenavon D 1-153.4 1134 1095 52.53% 23.54% 23.93%+0.56 -1.0 6
1986-02-08 @ Cliftonville D 1-153.4 1095 1134 23.93% 23.54% 52.53%-0.56 +1.0 7
1986-02-08 Ballymena United W 2-142.5 1249 1188 55.03% 23.34% 21.63%+0.70 +3.6 13
1986-02-08 @ Coleraine L 1-242.5 1188 1249 21.63% 23.34% 55.03%-0.70 -3.7 12
1986-02-08 Newry City W 3-031.7 1179 1098 57.16% 23.12% 19.72%+0.83 +9.8 14
1986-02-08 @ Crusaders L 0-331.7 1098 1179 19.72% 23.12% 57.16%-0.83 -9.8 7
1986-02-08 Lisburn Distillery L 0-146.7 1144 1089 54.42% 23.39% 22.19%+0.67 -8.2 9
1986-02-08 @ Larne W 1-046.7 1089 1144 22.19% 23.39% 54.42%-0.67 +8.2 6
1986-02-08 Ards L 0-248.0 1389 1199 66.84% 21.40% 11.77%+1.53 -18.8 22
1986-02-08 @ Linfield W 2-048.0 1199 1389 11.77% 21.40% 66.84%-1.53 +18.8 15
1986-02-08 Carrick Rangers W 2-139.4 1147 987 64.40% 21.97% 13.63%+1.34 +2.4 9
1986-02-08 @ Portadown L 1-239.4 987 1147 13.63% 21.97% 64.40%-1.34 -2.4 3
1986-02-11 Larne W 1-033.5 1334 1136 67.40% 21.25% 11.35%+1.58 +2.1 20
1986-02-11 @ Glentoran L 0-133.5 1136 1334 11.35% 21.25% 67.40%-1.58 -2.1 9
1986-02-15 Portadown W 3-032.1 1218 1149 55.92% 23.25% 20.83%+0.75 +10.3 17
1986-02-15 @ Ards L 0-332.1 1149 1218 20.83% 23.25% 55.92%-0.75 -10.3 9
1986-02-15 Linfield D 1-154.2 1185 1371 23.85% 23.02% 53.14%-0.89 +1.0 13
1986-02-15 @ Ballymena United D 1-154.2 1371 1185 53.14% 23.02% 23.85%+0.89 -1.0 23
1986-02-15 Newry City W 3-146.1 985 1088 33.71% 23.74% 42.55%-0.36 +10.9 5
1986-02-15 @ Carrick Rangers L 1-346.1 1088 985 42.55% 23.74% 33.71%+0.36 -10.9 7
1986-02-15 Larne D 2-259.1 1189 1134 54.38% 23.39% 22.22%+0.66 -0.8 15
1986-02-15 @ Crusaders D 2-259.1 1134 1189 22.22% 23.39% 54.38%-0.66 +0.8 10
1986-02-15 Bangor W 2-142.2 1096 1034 55.18% 23.32% 21.50%+0.71 +3.6 9
1986-02-15 @ Glenavon L 1-242.2 1034 1096 21.50% 23.32% 55.18%-0.71 -3.6 5
1986-02-15 Coleraine L 0-245.6 1336 1253 57.33% 23.10% 19.57%+0.84 -16.3 20
1986-02-15 @ Glentoran W 2-045.6 1253 1336 19.57% 23.10% 57.33%-0.84 +16.3 15
1986-02-22 Lisburn Distillery D 2-258.8 1030 1097 38.79% 23.87% 37.34%-0.12 -0.0 6
1986-02-22 @ Bangor D 2-258.8 1097 1030 37.34% 23.87% 38.79%+0.12 +0.0 7
1986-02-22 Linfield L 1-337.3 1078 1370 14.69% 21.28% 64.03%-1.57 -4.4 7
1986-02-22 @ Newry City W 3-137.3 1370 1078 64.03% 21.28% 14.69%+1.57 +4.4 25
1986-03-01 Glenavon D 1-153.3 1030 1100 38.42% 23.87% 37.71%-0.14 -0.0 7
1986-03-01 @ Bangor D 1-153.3 1100 1030 37.71% 23.87% 38.42%+0.14 +0.0 10
1986-03-01 Lisburn Distillery D 1-153.4 1133 1097 52.18% 23.56% 24.26%+0.54 -0.9 7
1986-03-01 @ Cliftonville D 1-153.4 1097 1133 24.26% 23.56% 52.18%-0.54 +1.0 8
1986-03-01 Glentoran L 1-542.3 1269 1319 41.17% 23.89% 34.94%-0.01 -19.3 15
1986-03-01 @ Coleraine W 5-142.3 1319 1269 34.94% 23.89% 41.17%+0.01 +19.3 22
1986-03-01 Crusaders W 3-144.1 1135 1188 40.70% 23.89% 35.41%-0.03 +9.4 12
1986-03-01 @ Larne L 1-344.1 1188 1135 35.41% 23.89% 40.70%+0.03 -9.4 15
1986-03-01 Ballymena United W 5-132.6 1374 1186 66.69% 21.44% 11.88%+1.52 +6.6 27
1986-03-01 @ Linfield L 1-532.6 1186 1374 11.88% 21.44% 66.69%-1.52 -6.6 13
1986-03-01 Carrick Rangers L 0-147.3 1073 996 56.79% 23.16% 20.05%+0.81 -8.6 7
1986-03-01 @ Newry City W 1-047.3 996 1073 20.05% 23.16% 56.79%-0.81 +8.6 7
1986-03-01 Ards W 2-040.1 1139 1228 35.59% 23.81% 40.60%-0.27 +12.1 11
1986-03-01 @ Portadown L 0-240.1 1228 1139 40.60% 23.81% 35.59%+0.27 -12.1 17
1986-03-08 Newry City L 0-149.2 1216 1065 63.77% 22.10% 14.13%+1.29 -9.5 17
1986-03-08 @ Ards W 1-049.2 1065 1216 14.13% 22.10% 63.77%-1.29 +9.6 9
1986-03-08 Portadown L 0-146.0 1179 1151 51.33% 23.61% 25.06%+0.49 -7.8 13
1986-03-08 @ Ballymena United W 1-046.0 1151 1179 25.06% 23.61% 51.33%-0.49 +7.8 13
1986-03-08 Crusaders L 0-137.8 1004 1179 25.06% 23.15% 51.79%-0.81 -4.3 7
1986-03-08 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-037.8 1179 1004 51.79% 23.15% 25.06%+0.81 +4.3 17
1986-03-08 Larne W 3-142.4 1132 1144 46.26% 23.83% 29.92%+0.23 +8.2 9
1986-03-08 @ Cliftonville L 1-342.4 1144 1132 29.92% 23.83% 46.26%-0.23 -8.3 12
1986-03-08 Coleraine L 0-138.8 1100 1250 27.78% 23.40% 48.82%-0.66 -4.7 10
1986-03-08 @ Glenavon W 1-038.8 1250 1100 48.82% 23.40% 27.78%+0.66 +4.7 17
1986-03-08 Linfield L 2-355.7 1339 1381 42.31% 23.89% 33.80%+0.04 -5.9 22
1986-03-08 @ Glentoran W 3-255.7 1381 1339 33.80% 23.89% 42.31%-0.04 +5.9 29
1986-03-08 Bangor W 2-142.0 1098 1030 55.80% 23.26% 20.94%+0.75 +3.5 10
1986-03-08 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-242.0 1030 1098 20.94% 23.26% 55.80%-0.75 -3.5 7
1986-03-15 Linfield D 0-050.3 1026 1386 10.68% 19.82% 69.50%-2.01 +2.4 8
1986-03-15 @ Bangor D 0-050.3 1386 1026 69.50% 19.82% 10.68%+2.01 -2.4 30
1986-03-15 Glenavon W 4-245.5 1102 1095 48.67% 23.75% 27.58%+0.35 +6.9 12
1986-03-15 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-445.5 1095 1102 27.58% 23.75% 48.67%-0.35 -6.9 10
1986-03-15 Crusaders D 2-258.9 1074 1183 33.00% 23.71% 43.29%-0.39 +0.2 10
1986-03-15 @ Newry City D 2-258.9 1183 1074 43.29% 23.71% 33.00%+0.39 -0.2 18
1986-03-17 Newry City W 4-031.4 1140 1074 55.54% 23.29% 21.17%+0.73 +13.6 11
1986-03-17 @ Cliftonville L 0-431.4 1074 1140 21.17% 23.29% 55.54%-0.73 -13.6 10
1986-03-18 Bangor D 1-153.3 1000 1029 44.06% 23.87% 32.07%+0.12 -0.4 8
1986-03-18 @ Carrick Rangers D 1-153.3 1029 1000 32.07% 23.87% 44.06%-0.12 +0.4 9
1986-03-22 Cliftonville W 1-044.1 1029 1154 30.98% 23.62% 45.41%-0.49 +7.0 11
1986-03-22 @ Bangor L 0-144.1 1154 1029 45.41% 23.62% 30.98%+0.49 -7.0 11
1986-03-22 Larne D 2-259.0 1000 1136 29.49% 23.52% 46.98%-0.57 +0.4 9
1986-03-22 @ Carrick Rangers D 2-259.0 1136 1000 46.98% 23.52% 29.49%+0.57 -0.4 13
1986-03-22 Lisburn Distillery L 0-344.5 1255 1108 63.32% 22.19% 14.50%+1.25 -26.0 17
1986-03-22 @ Coleraine W 3-044.5 1108 1255 14.50% 22.19% 63.32%-1.25 +26.0 14
1986-03-22 Ards W 2-145.5 1183 1207 44.72% 23.86% 31.42%+0.15 +5.0 20
1986-03-22 @ Crusaders L 1-245.5 1207 1183 31.42% 23.86% 44.72%-0.15 -5.0 17
1986-03-22 Glenavon W 1-031.6 1384 1088 73.86% 19.07% 7.07%+2.22 +1.3 32
1986-03-22 @ Linfield L 0-131.6 1088 1384 7.07% 19.07% 73.86%-2.22 -1.3 10
1986-03-22 Ballymena United L 1-637.9 1061 1171 32.77% 23.70% 43.52%-0.40 -19.8 10
1986-03-22 @ Newry City W 6-137.9 1171 1061 43.52% 23.70% 32.77%+0.40 +19.8 15
1986-03-22 Glentoran W 2-151.6 1159 1333 25.07% 23.15% 51.78%-0.81 +7.4 15
1986-03-22 @ Portadown L 1-251.6 1333 1159 51.78% 23.15% 25.07%+0.81 -7.4 22
1986-03-25 Larne L 1-251.3 1166 1135 51.58% 23.60% 24.82%+0.51 -7.4 15
1986-03-25 @ Portadown W 2-151.3 1135 1166 24.82% 23.60% 51.58%-0.51 +7.4 15
1986-03-29 Carrick Rangers W 4-133.4 1202 1000 67.71% 21.17% 11.12%+1.61 +4.8 19
1986-03-29 @ Ards L 1-433.4 1000 1202 11.12% 21.17% 67.71%-1.61 -4.8 9
1986-03-29 Crusaders D 0-049.0 1191 1188 48.27% 23.76% 27.96%+0.33 -0.8 16
1986-03-29 @ Ballymena United D 0-049.0 1188 1191 27.96% 23.76% 48.27%-0.33 +0.8 21
1986-03-29 Coleraine W 2-147.9 1147 1229 36.63% 23.83% 39.53%-0.22 +5.9 13
1986-03-29 @ Cliftonville L 1-247.9 1229 1147 39.53% 23.83% 36.63%+0.22 -5.9 17
1986-03-29 Portadown W 2-039.3 1087 1159 38.09% 23.86% 38.05%-0.15 +11.5 12
1986-03-29 @ Glenavon L 0-239.3 1159 1087 38.05% 23.86% 38.09%+0.15 -11.5 15
1986-03-29 Newry City W 4-026.2 1325 1041 73.17% 19.34% 7.48%+2.14 +5.0 24
1986-03-29 @ Glentoran L 0-426.2 1041 1325 7.48% 19.34% 73.17%-2.14 -5.0 10
1986-03-29 Bangor W 5-030.3 1143 1036 59.71% 22.79% 17.50%+1.00 +14.2 17
1986-03-29 @ Larne L 0-530.3 1036 1143 17.50% 22.79% 59.71%-1.00 -14.1 11
1986-03-29 Linfield L 0-430.5 1134 1385 17.77% 22.05% 60.19%-1.31 -11.5 14
1986-03-29 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-030.5 1385 1134 60.19% 22.05% 17.77%+1.31 +11.5 34
1986-03-31 Glentoran W 4-252.0 1188 1330 28.80% 23.48% 47.73%-0.61 +10.7 23
1986-03-31 @ Crusaders L 2-452.0 1330 1188 47.73% 23.48% 28.80%+0.61 -10.7 24
1986-04-01 Larne D 1-153.6 1207 1157 53.78% 23.44% 22.78%+0.63 -1.1 20
1986-04-01 @ Ards D 1-153.6 1157 1207 22.78% 23.44% 53.78%-0.63 +1.1 18
1986-04-01 Bangor W 3-136.0 1223 1022 67.64% 21.19% 11.17%+1.60 +3.4 19
1986-04-01 @ Coleraine L 1-336.0 1022 1223 11.17% 21.19% 67.64%-1.60 -3.4 11
1986-04-01 Cliftonville W 2-030.1 1397 1153 70.66% 20.27% 9.07%+1.88 +3.2 36
1986-04-01 @ Linfield L 0-230.1 1153 1397 9.07% 20.27% 70.66%-1.88 -3.2 13
1986-04-01 Glenavon W 2-038.8 1036 1098 39.48% 23.88% 36.64%-0.09 +11.2 12
1986-04-01 @ Newry City L 0-238.8 1098 1036 36.64% 23.88% 39.48%+0.09 -11.2 12
1986-04-01 Lisburn Distillery L 0-145.8 1147 1123 50.81% 23.64% 25.55%+0.46 -7.7 15
1986-04-01 @ Portadown W 1-045.8 1123 1147 25.55% 23.64% 50.81%-0.46 +7.7 16
1986-04-03 Portadown W 2-142.4 1199 1139 54.91% 23.35% 21.75%+0.69 +3.7 25
1986-04-03 @ Crusaders L 1-242.4 1139 1199 21.75% 23.35% 54.91%-0.69 -3.7 15
1986-04-05 Ballymena United L 0-235.2 1019 1190 25.35% 23.18% 51.47%-0.80 -8.3 11
1986-04-05 @ Bangor W 2-035.2 1190 1019 51.47% 23.18% 25.35%+0.80 +8.3 18
1986-04-05 Crusaders L 1-245.5 1087 1203 32.09% 23.67% 44.24%-0.44 -5.0 12
1986-04-05 @ Glenavon W 2-145.5 1203 1087 44.24% 23.67% 32.09%+0.44 +5.0 27
1986-04-05 Linfield D 1-154.5 1158 1400 18.50% 22.20% 59.30%-1.25 +1.4 19
1986-04-05 @ Larne D 1-154.5 1400 1158 59.30% 22.20% 18.50%+1.25 -1.4 37
1986-04-05 Cliftonville L 1-249.6 1131 1149 45.43% 23.85% 30.72%+0.19 -6.6 16
1986-04-05 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-149.6 1149 1131 30.72% 23.85% 45.43%-0.19 +6.6 15
1986-04-08 Ards W 1-039.5 1199 1206 46.96% 23.81% 29.23%+0.27 +5.0 20
1986-04-08 @ Ballymena United L 0-139.5 1206 1199 29.23% 23.81% 46.96%-0.27 -5.0 20
1986-04-08 Portadown D 0-049.0 1156 1136 50.35% 23.67% 25.98%+0.44 -0.9 16
1986-04-08 @ Cliftonville D 0-049.0 1136 1156 25.98% 23.67% 50.35%-0.44 +0.9 16
1986-04-08 Linfield L 1-341.1 1208 1399 23.31% 22.95% 53.74%-0.92 -6.7 27
1986-04-08 @ Crusaders W 3-141.1 1399 1208 53.74% 22.95% 23.31%+0.92 +6.7 39
1986-04-08 Carrick Rangers W 2-028.1 1320 995 75.46% 18.37% 6.17%+2.40 +2.1 26
1986-04-08 @ Glentoran L 0-228.1 995 1320 6.17% 18.37% 75.46%-2.40 -2.1 9
1986-04-08 Coleraine L 0-239.6 1159 1226 38.80% 23.87% 37.33%-0.12 -11.7 19
1986-04-08 @ Larne W 2-039.6 1226 1159 37.33% 23.87% 38.80%+0.12 +11.7 21
1986-04-08 Newry City W 2-141.7 1124 1047 56.73% 23.17% 20.10%+0.80 +3.4 18
1986-04-08 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-241.7 1047 1124 20.10% 23.17% 56.73%-0.80 -3.4 12
1986-04-12 Glentoran D 0-049.4 1201 1322 31.38% 23.64% 44.99%-0.47 +0.5 21
1986-04-12 @ Ards D 0-049.4 1322 1201 44.99% 23.64% 31.38%+0.47 -0.5 27
1986-04-12 Larne L 0-244.1 1204 1148 54.48% 23.39% 22.14%+0.67 -15.5 20
1986-04-12 @ Ballymena United W 2-044.1 1148 1204 22.14% 23.39% 54.48%-0.67 +15.5 21
1986-04-12 Glenavon L 0-435.9 993 1082 35.69% 23.81% 40.50%-0.26 -20.7 9
1986-04-12 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-035.9 1082 993 40.50% 23.81% 35.69%+0.26 +20.7 14
1986-04-12 Coleraine L 0-150.7 1405 1238 65.06% 21.83% 13.12%+1.39 -9.7 39
1986-04-12 @ Linfield W 1-050.7 1238 1405 13.12% 21.83% 65.06%-1.39 +9.7 23
1986-04-12 Crusaders W 2-147.5 1128 1201 37.85% 23.86% 38.30%-0.16 +5.8 20
1986-04-12 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-247.5 1201 1128 38.30% 23.86% 37.85%+0.16 -5.8 27
1986-04-12 Cliftonville D 0-048.9 1044 1155 32.68% 23.70% 43.62%-0.41 +0.4 13
1986-04-12 @ Newry City D 0-048.9 1155 1044 43.62% 23.70% 32.68%+0.41 -0.4 17
1986-04-12 Bangor L 1-449.0 1137 1010 61.54% 22.51% 15.95%+1.12 -21.3 16
1986-04-12 @ Portadown W 4-149.0 1010 1137 15.95% 22.51% 61.54%-1.12 +21.3 13
1986-04-15 Portadown W 4-029.5 1248 1115 62.10% 22.41% 15.48%+1.16 +10.3 25
1986-04-15 @ Coleraine L 0-429.5 1115 1248 15.48% 22.41% 62.10%-1.16 -10.3 16
1986-04-16 Newry City D 1-153.3 1032 1044 46.23% 23.83% 29.94%+0.23 -0.5 14
1986-04-16 @ Bangor D 1-153.3 1044 1032 29.94% 23.83% 46.23%-0.23 +0.5 14
1986-04-16 Ards D 0-048.9 1103 1201 34.40% 23.77% 41.83%-0.32 +0.3 15
1986-04-16 @ Glenavon D 0-048.9 1201 1103 41.83% 23.77% 34.40%+0.32 -0.3 22
1986-04-17 Carrick Rangers W 1-032.6 1195 972 69.23% 20.73% 10.04%+1.75 +1.9 29
1986-04-17 @ Crusaders L 0-132.6 972 1195 10.04% 20.73% 69.23%-1.75 -1.9 9
1986-04-17 Glentoran D 0-049.4 1163 1321 26.89% 23.33% 49.78%-0.71 +0.9 22
1986-04-17 @ Larne D 0-049.4 1321 1163 49.78% 23.33% 26.89%+0.71 -0.9 28
1986-04-19 Lisburn Distillery W 4-031.4 1201 1133 55.74% 23.27% 20.99%+0.74 +13.5 24
1986-04-19 @ Ards L 0-431.4 1133 1201 20.99% 23.27% 55.74%-0.74 -13.5 20
1986-04-19 Glenavon D 3-363.0 1188 1103 57.59% 23.07% 19.34%+0.86 -0.8 21
1986-04-19 @ Ballymena United D 3-363.0 1103 1188 19.34% 23.07% 57.59%-0.86 +0.8 16
1986-04-19 Cliftonville L 0-137.5 970 1155 24.00% 23.03% 52.97%-0.88 -4.2 9
1986-04-19 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-037.5 1155 970 52.97% 23.03% 24.00%+0.88 +4.2 19
1986-04-19 Bangor W 2-031.2 1197 1031 64.96% 21.85% 13.19%+1.38 +4.7 31
1986-04-19 @ Crusaders L 0-231.2 1031 1197 13.19% 21.85% 64.96%-1.38 -4.7 14
1986-04-19 Coleraine L 1-241.9 1045 1258 21.09% 22.64% 56.27%-1.06 -3.5 14
1986-04-19 @ Newry City W 2-141.9 1258 1045 56.27% 22.64% 21.09%+1.06 +3.5 27
1986-04-19 Linfield L 0-134.6 1105 1396 14.79% 21.31% 63.90%-1.56 -2.7 16
1986-04-19 @ Portadown W 1-034.6 1396 1105 63.90% 21.31% 14.79%+1.56 +2.7 41
1986-04-22 Carrick Rangers W 2-034.1 1027 966 54.96% 23.34% 21.70%+0.70 +7.3 16
1986-04-22 @ Bangor L 0-234.1 966 1027 21.70% 23.34% 54.96%-0.70 -7.3 9
1986-04-22 Ards D 0-049.0 1159 1214 40.42% 23.89% 35.70%-0.05 -0.2 20
1986-04-22 @ Cliftonville D 0-049.0 1214 1159 35.70% 23.89% 40.42%+0.05 +0.2 25
1986-04-22 Crusaders W 4-350.3 1262 1202 54.89% 23.35% 21.76%+0.69 +3.4 29
1986-04-22 @ Coleraine L 3-450.3 1202 1262 21.76% 23.35% 54.89%-0.69 -3.4 31
1986-04-22 Glentoran W 1-047.4 1104 1321 20.76% 22.59% 56.65%-1.09 +8.5 18
1986-04-22 @ Glenavon L 0-147.4 1321 1104 56.65% 22.59% 20.76%+1.09 -8.5 28
1986-04-22 Portadown L 1-252.3 1164 1102 55.13% 23.33% 21.54%+0.71 -7.9 22
1986-04-22 @ Larne W 2-152.3 1102 1164 21.54% 23.33% 55.13%-0.71 +7.9 18
1986-04-22 Ballymena United D 1-153.4 1120 1187 38.72% 23.87% 37.41%-0.13 -0.0 21
1986-04-22 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-153.4 1187 1120 37.41% 23.87% 38.72%+0.13 +0.0 22
1986-04-24 Ards D 0-049.1 1041 1214 25.18% 23.16% 51.66%-0.81 +1.0 15
1986-04-24 @ Newry City D 0-049.1 1214 1041 51.66% 23.16% 25.18%+0.81 -1.0 26
1986-04-26 Bangor W 2-138.9 1213 1034 66.04% 21.60% 12.37%+1.47 +2.2 28
1986-04-26 @ Ards L 1-238.9 1034 1213 12.37% 21.60% 66.04%-1.47 -2.2 16
1986-04-26 Cliftonville W 4-244.8 1187 1159 51.35% 23.61% 25.03%+0.49 +6.4 24
1986-04-26 @ Ballymena United L 2-444.8 1159 1187 25.03% 23.61% 51.35%-0.49 -6.4 20
1986-04-26 Coleraine L 0-231.1 959 1265 13.76% 21.00% 65.24%-1.66 -4.7 9
1986-04-26 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-031.1 1265 959 65.24% 21.00% 13.76%+1.66 +4.7 31
1986-04-26 Larne D 1-153.3 1112 1156 42.00% 23.89% 34.11%+0.03 -0.3 19
1986-04-26 @ Glenavon D 1-153.3 1156 1112 34.11% 23.89% 42.00%-0.03 +0.2 23
1986-04-26 Lisburn Distillery L 1-255.5 1312 1120 67.00% 21.36% 11.64%+1.55 -9.4 28
1986-04-26 @ Glentoran W 2-155.5 1120 1312 11.64% 21.36% 67.00%-1.55 +9.4 23
1986-04-26 Portadown W 1-041.8 1042 1110 38.65% 23.87% 37.48%-0.13 +6.0 17
1986-04-26 @ Newry City L 0-141.8 1110 1042 37.48% 23.87% 38.65%+0.13 -6.0 18
1986-04-28 Glenavon D 2-259.6 1270 1112 64.27% 22.00% 13.74%+1.32 -1.4 32
1986-04-28 @ Coleraine D 2-259.6 1112 1270 13.74% 22.00% 64.27%-1.32 +1.4 20
1986-04-29 Ballymena United L 0-430.3 954 1194 18.71% 22.24% 59.05%-1.23 -12.0 9
1986-04-29 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-030.3 1194 954 59.05% 22.24% 18.71%+1.23 +12.0 26
1986-04-29 Crusaders W 2-146.3 1152 1199 41.70% 23.89% 34.41%+0.01 +5.3 22
1986-04-29 @ Cliftonville L 1-246.3 1199 1152 34.41% 23.89% 41.70%-0.01 -5.3 31
1986-04-29 Larne L 0-639.1 1129 1157 44.26% 23.87% 31.87%+0.13 -36.0 23
1986-04-29 @ Lisburn Distillery W 6-039.1 1157 1129 31.87% 23.87% 44.26%-0.13 +36.0 25
1986-05-01 Cliftonville D 1-153.5 1193 1158 52.10% 23.57% 24.34%+0.53 -0.9 26
1986-05-01 @ Larne D 1-153.5 1158 1193 24.34% 23.57% 52.10%-0.53 +0.9 23
1986-05-02 Carrick Rangers D 1-153.8 1093 942 63.72% 22.11% 14.17%+1.28 -1.8 24
1986-05-02 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-153.8 942 1093 14.17% 22.11% 63.72%-1.28 +1.8 10
1986-05-02 Crusaders W 2-148.1 1104 1193 35.68% 23.81% 40.51%-0.26 +6.0 20
1986-05-02 @ Portadown L 1-248.1 1193 1104 40.51% 23.81% 35.68%+0.26 -6.0 31
1986-05-05 Ards D 1-153.8 1268 1216 54.12% 23.42% 22.47%+0.65 -1.1 33
1986-05-05 @ Coleraine D 1-153.8 1216 1268 22.47% 23.42% 54.12%-0.65 +1.1 29
1986-05-05 Newry City W 3-029.9 1192 1048 63.06% 22.24% 14.70%+1.23 +7.5 28
1986-05-05 @ Larne L 0-329.9 1048 1192 14.70% 22.24% 63.06%-1.23 -7.5 17
1986-05-06 Cliftonville D 1-154.1 1303 1159 63.12% 22.23% 14.65%+1.24 -1.7 29
1986-05-06 @ Glentoran D 1-154.1 1159 1303 14.65% 22.23% 63.12%-1.24 +1.7 24
1986-05-06 Carrick Rangers W 5-023.8 1398 944 81.67% 15.05% 3.29%+3.24 +2.5 43
1986-05-06 @ Linfield L 0-523.8 944 1398 3.29% 15.05% 81.67%-3.24 -2.5 10
1986-05-06 Ballymena United D 1-153.4 1110 1206 34.78% 23.78% 41.44%-0.31 +0.2 21
1986-05-06 @ Portadown D 1-153.4 1206 1110 41.44% 23.78% 34.78%+0.31 -0.2 27
1986-05-08 Cliftonville D 1-153.3 1113 1160 41.61% 23.89% 34.50%+0.01 -0.2 21
1986-05-08 @ Glenavon D 1-153.3 1160 1113 34.50% 23.89% 41.61%-0.01 +0.2 25
1986-05-09 Linfield W 2-152.6 1217 1401 24.02% 23.04% 52.94%-0.88 +7.5 31
1986-05-09 @ Ards L 1-252.6 1401 1217 52.94% 23.04% 24.02%+0.88 -7.5 43
1986-05-09 Coleraine L 1-248.1 1206 1267 39.54% 23.88% 36.58%-0.09 -5.9 27
1986-05-09 @ Ballymena United W 2-148.1 1267 1206 36.58% 23.88% 39.54%+0.09 +5.9 35
1986-05-09 Portadown L 0-138.0 941 1110 25.66% 23.21% 51.13%-0.78 -4.4 10
1986-05-09 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-038.0 1110 941 51.13% 23.21% 25.66%+0.78 +4.4 23
1986-05-09 Bangor L 1-451.4 1301 1032 72.25% 19.70% 8.05%+2.04 -24.7 29
1986-05-09 @ Glentoran W 4-151.4 1032 1301 8.05% 19.70% 72.25%-2.04 +24.7 18
1986-05-13 Ballymena United W 2-034.0 1276 1200 56.70% 23.17% 20.13%+0.80 +6.8 31
1986-05-13 @ Glentoran L 0-234.0 1200 1276 20.13% 23.17% 56.70%-0.80 -6.9 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-05-09 8.05% Bangor 1032 4 @ Glentoran 1301 1
2 1986-01-11 10.22% Glenavon 1114 1 @ Glentoran 1333 0
3 1986-04-26 11.64% Lisburn Distillery 1120 2 @ Glentoran 1312 1
4 1986-02-08 11.77% Ards 1199 2 @ Linfield 1389 0
5 1986-04-12 13.12% Coleraine 1238 1 @ Linfield 1405 0
6 1986-03-08 14.13% Newry City 1065 1 @ Ards 1216 0
7 1986-03-22 14.50% Lisburn Distillery 1108 3 @ Coleraine 1255 0
8 1986-04-12 15.95% Bangor 1010 4 @ Portadown 1137 1
9 1986-02-15 19.57% Coleraine 1253 2 @ Glentoran 1336 0
10 1986-03-01 20.05% Carrick Rangers 996 1 @ Newry City 1073 0
11 1986-04-22 20.76% @ Glenavon 1104 1 Glentoran 1321 0
12 1986-04-22 21.54% Portadown 1102 2 @ Larne 1164 1
13 1986-04-12 22.14% Larne 1148 2 @ Ballymena United 1204 0
14 1986-02-08 22.19% Lisburn Distillery 1089 1 @ Larne 1144 0
15 1986-01-18 23.11% Newry City 1108 1 @ Portadown 1155 0
16 1985-12-21 24.00% @ Bangor 1060 2 Coleraine 1245 1
17 1986-05-09 24.02% @ Ards 1217 2 Linfield 1401 1
18 1986-01-25 24.21% Lisburn Distillery 1074 2 @ Glenavon 1110 0
19 1986-03-25 24.82% Larne 1135 2 @ Portadown 1166 1
20 1986-03-08 25.06% Portadown 1151 1 @ Ballymena United 1179 0
21 1986-03-22 25.07% @ Portadown 1159 2 Glentoran 1333 1
22 1986-04-01 25.55% Lisburn Distillery 1123 1 @ Portadown 1147 0
23 1985-12-07 27.81% Crusaders 1154 3 @ Ards 1158 1
24 1986-03-31 28.80% @ Crusaders 1188 4 Glentoran 1330 2
25 1986-01-25 29.59% Larne 1126 6 @ Newry City 1116 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-04-29 35.99 Larne 6 1157 31.87% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1129 44.26% 23.87%
2 1986-03-22 25.98 Lisburn Distillery 3 1108 14.50% @ Coleraine 0 1255 63.32% 22.19%
3 1986-05-09 24.69 Bangor 4 1032 8.05% @ Glentoran 1 1301 72.25% 19.70%
4 1986-04-12 21.33 Bangor 4 1010 15.95% @ Portadown 1 1137 61.54% 22.51%
5 1986-04-12 20.74 Glenavon 4 1082 40.50% @ Carrick Rangers 0 993 35.69% 23.81%
6 1986-03-22 19.79 Ballymena United 6 1171 43.52% @ Newry City 1 1061 32.77% 23.70%
7 1985-12-21 19.47 Portadown 3 1140 30.08% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1127 46.09% 23.83%
8 1986-03-01 19.32 Glentoran 5 1319 34.94% @ Coleraine 1 1269 41.17% 23.89%
9 1986-02-08 18.82 Ards 2 1199 11.77% @ Linfield 0 1389 66.84% 21.40%
10 1985-12-14 18.57 Glentoran 5 1300 52.83% @ Newry City 0 1117 24.12% 23.05%
11 1986-01-25 18.15 Larne 6 1126 29.59% @ Newry City 2 1116 46.59% 23.82%
12 1986-02-15 16.29 Coleraine 2 1253 19.57% @ Glentoran 0 1336 57.33% 23.10%
13 1986-01-11 15.75 @ Ards 4 1178 51.16% Cliftonville 0 1151 25.21% 23.62%
14 1985-12-07 15.61 @ Larne 5 1120 57.37% Carrick Rangers 0 1037 19.53% 23.10%
15 1986-04-12 15.54 Larne 2 1148 22.14% @ Ballymena United 0 1204 54.48% 23.39%
16 1986-01-25 14.95 Lisburn Distillery 2 1074 24.21% @ Glenavon 0 1110 52.23% 23.56%
17 1985-12-14 14.17 Ards 3 1146 45.46% @ Carrick Rangers 0 1021 30.92% 23.61%
18 1986-03-29 14.15 @ Larne 5 1143 59.71% Bangor 0 1036 17.50% 22.79%
19 1986-01-18 13.81 @ Larne 3 1112 46.35% Glenavon 0 1124 29.82% 23.83%
20 1985-12-26 13.78 @ Coleraine 7 1237 59.86% Larne 1 1129 17.37% 22.77%
21 1986-03-17 13.59 @ Cliftonville 4 1140 55.54% Newry City 0 1074 21.17% 23.29%
22 1986-04-19 13.49 @ Ards 4 1201 55.74% Lisburn Distillery 0 1133 20.99% 23.27%
23 1986-01-01 12.36 @ Newry City 5 1104 53.02% Bangor 1 1061 23.48% 23.50%
24 1986-01-04 12.28 Ballymena United 2 1174 34.69% @ Glenavon 0 1126 41.42% 23.89%
25 1985-12-07 12.12 Crusaders 3 1154 27.81% @ Ards 1 1158 48.43% 23.76%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-04-19 63.0 @ Ballymena United 3 1188 57.59% Glenavon 3 1103 19.34% 23.07%
2 1986-04-28 59.6 @ Coleraine 2 1270 64.27% Glenavon 2 1112 13.74% 22.00%
3 1986-02-15 59.1 @ Crusaders 2 1189 54.38% Larne 2 1134 22.22% 23.39%
4 1985-12-21 59.0 @ Glenavon 2 1136 52.34% Newry City 2 1099 24.11% 23.55%
5 1986-03-22 59.0 @ Carrick Rangers 2 1000 29.49% Larne 2 1136 46.98% 23.52%
6 1986-03-15 58.9 @ Newry City 2 1074 33.00% Crusaders 2 1183 43.29% 23.71%
7 1986-02-22 58.8 @ Bangor 2 1030 38.79% Lisburn Distillery 2 1097 37.34% 23.87%
8 1986-03-08 55.7 Linfield 3 1381 33.80% @ Glentoran 2 1339 42.31% 23.89%
9 1986-04-26 55.5 Lisburn Distillery 2 1120 11.64% @ Glentoran 1 1312 67.00% 21.36%
10 1986-04-05 54.5 @ Larne 1 1158 18.50% Linfield 1 1400 59.30% 22.20%
11 1986-02-15 54.2 @ Ballymena United 1 1185 23.85% Linfield 1 1371 53.14% 23.02%
12 1986-05-06 54.1 @ Glentoran 1 1303 63.12% Cliftonville 1 1159 14.65% 22.23%
13 1985-12-28 53.8 @ Glenavon 1 1136 63.09% Carrick Rangers 1 992 14.67% 22.23%
14 1986-05-02 53.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1093 63.72% Carrick Rangers 1 942 14.17% 22.11%
15 1986-05-05 53.8 @ Coleraine 1 1268 54.12% Ards 1 1216 22.47% 23.42%
16 1986-04-01 53.6 @ Ards 1 1207 53.78% Larne 1 1157 22.78% 23.44%
17 1985-12-07 53.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1136 33.75% Coleraine 1 1239 42.50% 23.75%
18 1986-01-18 53.5 @ Bangor 1 1043 27.73% Ards 1 1194 48.88% 23.40%
19 1986-05-01 53.5 @ Larne 1 1193 52.10% Cliftonville 1 1158 24.34% 23.57%
20 1985-12-26 53.4 @ Crusaders 1 1162 51.20% Glenavon 1 1135 25.17% 23.62%
21 1986-02-08 53.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1134 52.53% Glenavon 1 1095 23.93% 23.54%
22 1986-03-01 53.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1133 52.18% Lisburn Distillery 1 1097 24.26% 23.56%
23 1986-04-22 53.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1120 38.72% Ballymena United 1 1187 37.41% 23.87%
24 1986-05-06 53.4 @ Portadown 1 1110 34.78% Ballymena United 1 1206 41.44% 23.78%
25 1986-03-01 53.3 @ Bangor 1 1030 38.42% Glenavon 1 1100 37.71% 23.87%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-05-06 23.8 @ Linfield 5 1398 81.67% Carrick Rangers 0 944 3.29% 15.05%
2 1986-03-29 26.2 @ Glentoran 4 1325 73.17% Newry City 0 1041 7.48% 19.34%
3 1986-01-25 26.7 Linfield 4 1383 71.62% @ Carrick Rangers 0 993 9.27% 19.12%
4 1985-12-14 28.1 @ Linfield 5 1341 67.95% Lisburn Distillery 0 1136 10.95% 21.10%
5 1986-04-08 28.1 @ Glentoran 2 1320 75.46% Carrick Rangers 0 995 6.17% 18.37%
6 1986-01-18 29.2 @ Linfield 3 1374 67.33% Crusaders 0 1177 11.40% 21.27%
7 1986-01-18 29.3 @ Coleraine 2 1252 71.42% Carrick Rangers 0 996 8.57% 20.00%
8 1986-04-15 29.5 @ Coleraine 4 1248 62.10% Portadown 0 1115 15.48% 22.41%
9 1986-02-08 29.9 Glentoran 3 1326 63.38% @ Bangor 0 1041 15.19% 21.43%
10 1986-05-05 29.9 @ Larne 3 1192 63.06% Newry City 0 1048 14.70% 22.24%
11 1986-04-01 30.1 @ Linfield 2 1397 70.66% Cliftonville 0 1153 9.07% 20.27%
12 1986-03-29 30.3 @ Larne 5 1143 59.71% Bangor 0 1036 17.50% 22.79%
13 1986-04-29 30.3 Ballymena United 4 1194 59.05% @ Carrick Rangers 0 954 18.71% 22.24%
14 1986-03-29 30.5 Linfield 4 1385 60.19% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1134 17.77% 22.05%
15 1985-12-26 30.7 Glentoran 2 1322 66.81% @ Carrick Rangers 0 997 12.59% 20.60%
16 1986-01-04 30.7 @ Linfield 2 1368 68.31% Portadown 0 1158 10.69% 21.00%
17 1985-12-21 30.9 @ Ballymena United 7 1173 64.97% Carrick Rangers 1 1007 13.19% 21.85%
18 1985-12-07 31.0 @ Larne 5 1120 57.37% Carrick Rangers 0 1037 19.53% 23.10%
19 1986-04-26 31.1 Coleraine 2 1265 65.24% @ Carrick Rangers 0 959 13.76% 21.00%
20 1986-04-19 31.2 @ Crusaders 2 1197 64.96% Bangor 0 1031 13.19% 21.85%
21 1986-03-17 31.4 @ Cliftonville 4 1140 55.54% Newry City 0 1074 21.17% 23.29%
22 1986-04-19 31.4 @ Ards 4 1201 55.74% Lisburn Distillery 0 1133 20.99% 23.27%
23 1986-03-22 31.6 @ Linfield 1 1384 73.86% Glenavon 0 1088 7.07% 19.07%
24 1986-02-08 31.7 @ Crusaders 3 1179 57.16% Newry City 0 1098 19.72% 23.12%
25 1986-02-15 32.1 @ Ards 3 1218 55.92% Portadown 0 1149 20.83% 23.25%