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1986-87 Irish League Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

57 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Newry City

9.52 points above expected

42 points · 32.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lisburn Distillery

13.44 points below expected

9 points · 22.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 26 18 3 5 57 50 15 +35 51.69 +5.31
2 Coleraine 26 16 5 5 53 65 26 +39 45.35 +7.65
3 Ards 26 14 6 6 48 47 31 +16 40.93 +7.07
4 Larne 26 11 9 6 42 38 24 +14 44.69 -2.69
5 Newry City 26 12 6 8 42 42 40 +2 32.48 +9.52
6 Ballymena United 26 11 8 7 41 45 42 +3 37.37 +3.63
7 Glentoran* 26 14 6 6 40 54 30 +24 40.19 -0.19
8 Cliftonville 26 8 9 9 33 34 29 +5 37.40 -4.40
9 Glenavon 26 8 8 10 32 32 27 +5 34.95 -2.95
10 Bangor 26 8 2 16 26 28 52 -24 26.50 -0.50
11 Crusaders* 26 8 5 13 25 37 54 -17 28.41 -3.41
12 Carrick Rangers 26 6 5 15 23 27 53 -26 22.05 +0.95
13 Portadown 26 3 11 12 20 22 45 -23 26.94 -6.94
14 Lisburn Distillery 26 2 3 21 9 21 74 -53 22.44 -13.44

* Point deductions: Crusaders (-4 pts), Glentoran (-8 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Newry City 42 32.48 +9.52
2 Coleraine 53 45.35 +7.65
3 Ards 48 40.93 +7.07
4 Linfield 57 51.69 +5.31
5 Ballymena United 41 37.37 +3.63

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lisburn Distillery 9 22.44 -13.44
2 Portadown 20 26.94 -6.94
3 Cliftonville 33 37.40 -4.40
4 Crusaders 25 28.41 -3.41
5 Glenavon 32 34.95 -2.95

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 11 Dec 20 – Feb 14 1 in 292
2 Ballymena United 4 Dec 27 – Jan 10 1 in 106
3 Crusaders 4 Nov 1 – Nov 29 1 in 65
4 Ards 4 Jan 24 – Feb 14 1 in 19
5 Carrick Rangers 2 Oct 4 – Oct 11 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lisburn Distillery 11 Dec 20 – Feb 14 1 in 127
2 Crusaders 5 Dec 13 – Jan 1 1 in 126
3 Larne 4 Jan 3 – Jan 24 1 in 64
4 Linfield 2 Sep 20 – Sep 27 1 in 43
5 Glenavon 4 Jan 24 – Feb 14 1 in 36

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 17 Nov 1 – Feb 14 1 in 94
2 Glenavon 8 Sep 6 – Oct 25 1 in 66
3 Ballymena United 8 Dec 27 – Feb 7 1 in 45
4 Ards 10 Dec 26 – Feb 14 1 in 33
5 Larne 9 Oct 11 – Dec 13 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 15 Aug 29 – Dec 13 1 in 493
2 Larne 5 Dec 6 – Dec 27 1 in 88
3 Linfield 4 Sep 20 – Oct 11 1 in 28
4 Ards 5 Oct 11 – Nov 8 1 in 20
5 Glentoran 4 Dec 27 – Jan 10 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1359 57 +27 15 11.4 +3.6
Coleraine 1344 53 +36 15 11.5 +3.5
Ards 1233 48 +59 13 8.7 +4.3
Glentoran 1225 48 +38 13 10.2 +2.8
Newry City 1091 42 +17 10 6.4 +3.6
Larne 1213 42 +0 7 9.1 -2.1
Ballymena United 1177 41 +29 8 8.4 -0.4
Cliftonville 1133 33 -26 4 7.7 -3.7
Glenavon 1082 32 -45 1 6.1 -5.1
Crusaders 1026 29 -42 2 4.7 -2.7
Bangor 959 26 -11 4 2.9 +1.1
Carrick Rangers 910 23 -44 1 3.1 -2.1
Portadown 955 20 -6 6 4.5 +1.5
Lisburn Distillery 842 9 -32 0 2.6 -2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CR CLI COL CRU GLE GLE LAR LIN LD NC POR
Ards —
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
3.71
1-1-0
4.20
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
3.86
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
1.74
2-0-0
4.14
1-1-0
2.83
1-1-0
3.50
Ballymena United
1-1-0
2.31
—
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.99
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
2.10
0-1-1
3.42
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
1.81
1-1-0
2.14
0-1-1
1.57
1-0-1
3.84
1-0-1
3.37
1-1-0
3.28
Bangor
1-0-1
1.82
0-0-2
2.10
—
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
1.37
0-0-2
1.36
1-0-1
2.35
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
1.32
0-0-2
1.23
1-0-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.29
2-0-0
2.66
Carrick Rangers
0-1-1
1.35
1-0-1
1.55
1-0-1
2.34
—
1-1-0
1.57
0-1-1
1.33
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
1.77
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
1.09
0-0-2
0.94
2-0-0
2.77
0-0-2
1.92
1-1-0
2.06
Cliftonville
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.77
0-1-1
4.18
0-1-1
3.97
—
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
3.21
1-1-0
2.81
0-2-0
1.86
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-2
1.62
2-0-0
3.53
2-0-0
2.98
1-1-0
3.77
Coleraine
1-0-1
3.11
0-1-1
3.41
2-0-0
4.21
1-1-0
4.23
2-0-0
3.59
—
2-0-0
3.46
1-1-0
3.19
1-0-1
2.46
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
2.24
2-0-0
5.16
1-1-0
3.69
1-1-0
4.18
Crusaders
0-0-2
1.67
1-1-0
2.09
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
2.05
—
0-1-1
2.30
1-0-1
1.53
0-1-1
2.16
1-0-1
1.43
1-1-0
3.63
0-0-2
3.02
0-1-1
3.29
Glenavon
1-0-1
2.22
0-1-1
2.81
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
3.75
0-1-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.32
1-1-0
3.20
—
0-2-0
1.71
0-2-0
2.05
0-0-2
1.17
2-0-0
3.45
0-0-2
2.97
1-0-1
3.62
Glentoran
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
3.72
2-0-0
4.12
2-0-0
4.46
0-2-0
3.66
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
4.01
0-2-0
3.82
—
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.72
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.76
2-0-0
4.37
Larne
1-0-1
2.95
0-1-1
3.37
2-0-0
4.24
1-1-0
4.51
1-1-0
3.84
1-0-1
2.37
1-1-0
3.35
0-2-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.39
—
0-1-1
2.19
1-1-0
4.00
1-0-1
3.55
1-1-0
3.99
Linfield
1-0-1
3.79
1-1-0
3.96
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.68
2-0-0
3.91
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
4.12
2-0-0
4.41
1-0-1
2.78
1-1-0
3.31
—
2-0-0
4.89
1-0-1
4.08
1-1-0
4.35
Lisburn Distillery
0-0-2
1.41
1-0-1
1.70
1-0-1
2.10
0-0-2
2.75
0-0-2
1.98
0-0-2
0.55
0-1-1
1.88
0-0-2
2.09
0-0-2
1.10
0-1-1
1.58
0-0-2
0.78
—
0-0-2
1.98
0-1-1
2.08
Newry City
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.14
1-1-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.60
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
1.83
2-0-0
2.50
2-0-0
2.53
0-1-1
1.76
1-0-1
1.96
1-0-1
1.48
2-0-0
3.55
—
0-2-0
3.26
Portadown
0-1-1
2.02
0-1-1
2.23
0-0-2
2.84
0-1-1
3.45
0-1-1
1.75
0-1-1
1.37
1-1-0
2.23
1-0-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.20
0-1-1
1.55
0-1-1
1.24
1-1-0
3.43
0-2-0
2.25
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +9.4
Allowed 0.73 -7.4
Differential 0.90 +5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.95%8.52%5.77%2.75%1.65%2.47%26.10%
18.52%12.09%6.32%4.12%1.92%0.82%33.79%
25.77%6.32%5.49%1.92%0.55%0.82%20.88%
32.75%4.12%1.92%0.55%0.55%—9.89%
41.65%1.92%0.55%0.55%0.55%—5.22%
5+2.47%0.82%0.82%———4.12%
Total26.10%33.79%20.88%9.89%5.22%4.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.49 1.49 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.15
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%3.85%——3.85%23.08%
111.54%7.69%7.69%———26.92%
23.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
33.85%11.54%3.85%———19.23%
43.85%——3.85%3.85%—11.54%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total34.62%34.62%19.23%3.85%3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.19 +0.62
SD 1.50 1.30 1.96
CV 0.83 1.09 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%——3.85%——11.54%
13.85%15.38%3.85%7.69%——30.77%
27.69%19.23%3.85%7.69%—3.85%42.31%
33.85%——3.85%——7.69%
4———3.85%——3.85%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total23.08%38.46%7.69%26.92%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.62 +0.12
SD 1.15 1.58 1.84
CV 0.66 0.98 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.54%15.38%7.69%7.69%—42.31%
17.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%3.85%26.92%
27.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
3——7.69%—3.85%—11.54%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+———————
Total15.38%23.08%30.77%11.54%15.38%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 2.00 -0.92
SD 1.20 1.41 2.00
CV 1.11 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%15.38%7.69%—3.85%42.31%
111.54%3.85%3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
23.85%3.85%7.69%—7.69%3.85%26.92%
3——3.85%———3.85%
4————3.85%—3.85%
5+———————
Total19.23%19.23%30.77%7.69%15.38%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 2.04 -1.00
SD 1.11 1.56 1.70
CV 1.07 0.77 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%23.08%————30.77%
17.69%15.38%3.85%—3.85%—30.77%
23.85%3.85%11.54%3.85%——23.08%
3—7.69%————7.69%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total23.08%53.85%15.38%3.85%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.12 +0.19
SD 1.23 0.95 1.50
CV 0.94 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%—3.85%———7.69%
115.38%7.69%11.54%3.85%——38.46%
23.85%3.85%7.69%———15.38%
37.69%—————7.69%
4—7.69%3.85%———11.54%
5+7.69%7.69%3.85%———19.23%
Total38.46%26.92%30.77%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.50 1.00 +1.50
SD 2.04 0.94 2.28
CV 0.82 0.94 —
Max 8 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%—7.69%—3.85%19.23%
111.54%7.69%11.54%11.54%—3.85%46.15%
2——7.69%3.85%——11.54%
3—7.69%7.69%3.85%——19.23%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total11.54%23.08%30.77%26.92%—7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 2.08 -0.65
SD 1.14 1.41 1.94
CV 0.80 0.68 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%19.23%————26.92%
17.69%19.23%11.54%7.69%——46.15%
27.69%—3.85%———11.54%
3—7.69%————7.69%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total26.92%50.00%15.38%7.69%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.04 +0.19
SD 1.18 0.87 1.52
CV 0.96 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%3.85%—3.85%—15.38%
13.85%15.38%—3.85%——23.08%
211.54%7.69%7.69%3.85%——30.77%
37.69%3.85%3.85%———15.38%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+3.85%—3.85%———7.69%
Total30.77%38.46%19.23%7.69%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.08 1.15 +0.92
SD 1.65 1.08 2.17
CV 0.79 0.94 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%—3.85%—3.85%19.23%
17.69%23.08%11.54%———42.31%
215.38%3.85%3.85%———23.08%
37.69%—————7.69%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total46.15%30.77%15.38%3.85%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 0.92 +0.54
SD 1.24 1.20 2.08
CV 0.85 1.30 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
119.23%7.69%3.85%3.85%——34.62%
211.54%11.54%————23.08%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
43.85%—————3.85%
5+11.54%—————11.54%
Total57.69%30.77%7.69%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 0.58 +1.35
SD 1.62 0.81 2.08
CV 0.84 1.40 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%15.38%7.69%——15.38%42.31%
1—3.85%11.54%11.54%15.38%—42.31%
2——3.85%——3.85%7.69%
3—7.69%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.85%26.92%23.08%11.54%15.38%19.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 2.85 -2.04
SD 0.90 1.97 2.20
CV 1.11 0.69 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%7.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%30.77%
17.69%11.54%———3.85%23.08%
23.85%15.38%3.85%———23.08%
3—7.69%——3.85%—11.54%
4—3.85%————3.85%
5+3.85%—3.85%———7.69%
Total23.08%42.31%15.38%3.85%7.69%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.54 +0.08
SD 1.63 1.50 2.43
CV 1.01 0.98 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—19.23%3.85%7.69%—38.46%
13.85%26.92%3.85%3.85%——38.46%
2—7.69%7.69%7.69%——23.08%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.54%34.62%30.77%15.38%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.85 1.73 -0.88
SD 0.78 1.12 1.42
CV 0.93 0.64 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1359 57 51.69 +5.31 80.0% 35 40 47 51 56 63 68
Coleraine 1344 53 45.35 +7.65 93.0% 34 35 41 45 49 54 59
Ards 1233 48 40.93 +7.07 88.0% 22 31 37 41 45 52 56
Glentoran 1225 40 40.19 -0.19 60.0% 25 32 36 39 44 52 57
Larne 1213 42 44.69 -2.69 42.0% 23 36 40 45 49 54 59
Ballymena United 1177 41 37.37 +3.63 74.0% 19 28 33 37 42 48 54
Cliftonville 1133 33 37.40 -4.40 30.0% 21 25 33 37 42 49 56
Newry City 1091 42 32.48 +9.52 96.0% 14 21 30 32 36 42 46
Glenavon 1082 32 34.95 -2.95 37.0% 22 24 31 35 39 45 53
Crusaders 1026 25 28.41 -3.41 32.0% 13 16 23 28 32 40 50
Bangor 959 26 26.50 -0.50 46.0% 12 17 21 27 31 36 40
Portadown 955 20 26.94 -6.94 11.0% 10 16 23 27 31 36 40
Carrick Rangers 910 23 22.05 +0.95 60.0% 8 13 18 21 26 31 37
Lisburn Distillery 842 9 22.44 -13.44 2.0% 9 12 18 22 26 32 43

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.74%
Clear Edge
45.05%23.63%31.32%
Elo Value
Home Edge
136 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
048.03400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.35+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.8
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Linfield, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.15/gm
Tight Race
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.03 * Some Luck: 5.03 to 7.54 * Lucky: 7.54 to 10.06 * Wild Swing: 10.06 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.47 * Close: 1.47 to 2.21 * Off: 2.21 to 2.94 * Way Off: 2.94 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.08 points
Some Luck
06.2816
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.43
Pinpoint
01.844
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
96.00%
Newry City
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
2.00%
Lisburn Distillery
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 158.71
2.00
Moderate Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
81%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.57
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.98
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.16
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.064
Well Within Noise
00.1280.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Linfield54.00%24.00%11.00%7.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%———————
Coleraine18.00%18.00%28.00%14.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—————
Ards6.00%9.00%16.00%14.00%14.00%16.00%7.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—
Larne15.00%19.00%20.00%14.00%9.00%15.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—1.00%———
Newry City——3.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%13.00%14.00%19.00%13.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%
Ballymena United1.00%8.00%4.00%8.00%15.00%11.00%15.00%13.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%
Glentoran3.00%11.00%8.00%17.00%18.00%15.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%1.00%—
Cliftonville2.00%6.00%7.00%12.00%11.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%9.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%3.00%—
Glenavon1.00%3.00%3.00%4.00%8.00%13.00%20.00%15.00%7.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%3.00%—
Bangor———1.00%2.00%1.00%3.00%6.00%10.00%21.00%9.00%17.00%19.00%11.00%
Crusaders—2.00%—1.00%6.00%—6.00%2.00%14.00%15.00%21.00%14.00%10.00%9.00%
Carrick Rangers————1.00%—1.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%11.00%17.00%26.00%34.00%
Portadown—————4.00%2.00%10.00%14.00%13.00%18.00%19.00%9.00%11.00%
Lisburn Distillery———1.00%———2.00%3.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%24.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Carrick Rangers 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Newry City 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1986-08-29 Glenavon W 1-041.1 1040 1071 39.88% 25.04% 35.08%+0.12 +10.5 3
1986-08-29 @ Bangor L 0-141.1 1071 1040 35.08% 25.04% 39.88%-0.12 -10.6 0
1986-08-29 Crusaders W 1-039.4 1135 1124 45.65% 24.83% 29.52%+0.43 +9.2 3
1986-08-29 @ Larne L 0-139.4 1124 1135 29.52% 24.83% 45.65%-0.43 -9.2 0
1986-08-29 Carrick Rangers W 1-037.3 1030 967 52.25% 24.24% 23.51%+0.82 +7.7 3
1986-08-29 @ Newry City L 0-137.3 967 1030 23.51% 24.24% 52.25%-0.82 -7.7 0
1986-08-29 Ards D 2-257.8 1072 1156 32.43% 24.97% 42.60%-0.27 +0.4 1
1986-08-29 @ Portadown D 2-257.8 1156 1072 42.60% 24.97% 32.43%+0.27 -0.5 1
1986-08-30 Lisburn Distillery W 1-038.0 1105 1059 50.07% 24.48% 25.45%+0.69 +8.2 3
1986-08-30 @ Cliftonville L 0-138.0 1059 1105 25.45% 24.48% 50.07%-0.69 -8.2 0
1986-08-30 Glentoran L 1-248.6 1187 1196 42.97% 24.96% 32.07%+0.29 -11.6 0
1986-08-30 @ Coleraine W 2-148.6 1196 1187 32.07% 24.96% 42.97%-0.29 +11.6 3
1986-08-30 Ballymena United W 3-030.1 1278 1130 61.31% 22.63% 16.06%+1.44 +14.8 3
1986-08-30 @ Linfield L 0-330.1 1130 1278 16.06% 22.63% 61.31%-1.44 -14.8 0
1986-09-06 Linfield W 2-150.6 1156 1293 25.94% 24.53% 49.53%-0.65 +13.1 4
1986-09-06 @ Ards L 1-250.6 1293 1156 49.53% 24.53% 25.94%+0.65 -13.1 3
1986-09-06 Coleraine W 2-147.4 1115 1175 35.77% 25.05% 39.18%-0.09 +10.8 3
1986-09-06 @ Ballymena United L 1-247.4 1175 1115 39.18% 25.05% 35.77%+0.09 -10.8 0
1986-09-06 Portadown D 0-048.3 959 1072 28.74% 24.77% 46.49%-0.48 +1.2 1
1986-09-06 @ Carrick Rangers D 0-048.3 1072 959 46.49% 24.77% 28.74%+0.48 -1.2 2
1986-09-06 Newry City L 1-349.0 1115 1038 53.83% 24.03% 22.14%+0.92 -24.4 0
1986-09-06 @ Crusaders W 3-149.0 1038 1115 22.14% 24.03% 53.83%-0.92 +24.4 6
1986-09-06 Cliftonville D 0-048.2 1061 1113 36.82% 25.06% 38.12%-0.03 +0.1 1
1986-09-06 @ Glenavon D 0-048.2 1113 1061 38.12% 25.06% 36.82%+0.03 -0.1 4
1986-09-06 Bangor W 4-134.7 1207 1051 62.12% 22.43% 15.45%+1.50 +12.0 6
1986-09-06 @ Glentoran L 1-434.7 1051 1207 15.45% 22.43% 62.12%-1.50 -12.0 3
1986-09-06 Larne L 1-244.9 1051 1145 31.26% 24.92% 43.82%-0.33 -9.1 0
1986-09-06 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-144.9 1145 1051 43.82% 24.92% 31.26%+0.33 +9.1 6
1986-09-13 Ballymena United L 0-140.1 1039 1126 32.02% 24.95% 43.02%-0.29 -9.8 3
1986-09-13 @ Bangor W 1-040.1 1126 1039 43.02% 24.95% 32.02%+0.29 +9.8 6
1986-09-13 Glentoran D 2-257.9 1113 1219 29.61% 24.83% 45.56%-0.43 +0.7 5
1986-09-13 @ Cliftonville D 2-257.9 1219 1113 45.56% 24.83% 29.61%+0.43 -0.7 7
1986-09-13 Ards L 1-346.3 1164 1169 43.56% 24.93% 31.51%+0.32 -20.4 0
1986-09-13 @ Coleraine W 3-146.3 1169 1164 31.51% 24.93% 43.56%-0.32 +20.4 7
1986-09-13 Newry City W 3-031.7 1154 1062 55.43% 23.79% 20.78%+1.02 +18.8 9
1986-09-13 @ Larne L 0-331.7 1062 1154 20.78% 23.79% 55.43%-1.02 -18.8 6
1986-09-13 Carrick Rangers W 2-135.6 1280 960 74.91% 17.77% 7.33%+2.70 +2.2 6
1986-09-13 @ Linfield L 1-235.6 960 1280 7.33% 17.77% 74.91%-2.70 -2.2 1
1986-09-13 Glenavon L 1-345.6 1042 1061 41.64% 25.00% 33.36%+0.22 -19.6 0
1986-09-13 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-145.6 1061 1042 33.36% 25.00% 41.64%-0.22 +19.6 4
1986-09-13 Crusaders D 1-152.3 1071 1091 41.51% 25.00% 33.49%+0.21 -0.5 3
1986-09-13 @ Portadown D 1-152.3 1091 1071 33.49% 25.00% 41.51%-0.21 +0.5 1
1986-09-20 Bangor L 0-148.5 1189 1029 62.48% 22.34% 15.18%+1.53 -17.1 7
1986-09-20 @ Ards W 1-048.5 1029 1189 15.18% 22.34% 62.48%-1.53 +17.1 6
1986-09-20 Cliftonville D 1-152.5 1136 1114 47.11% 24.73% 28.16%+0.51 -1.1 7
1986-09-20 @ Ballymena United D 1-152.5 1114 1136 28.16% 24.73% 47.11%-0.51 +1.1 6
1986-09-20 Coleraine D 2-258.1 958 1144 20.90% 23.82% 55.29%-1.01 +1.6 2
1986-09-20 @ Carrick Rangers D 2-258.1 1144 958 55.29% 23.82% 20.90%+1.01 -1.6 1
1986-09-20 Linfield W 1-047.0 1091 1282 20.44% 23.73% 55.84%-1.05 +15.4 4
1986-09-20 @ Crusaders L 0-147.0 1282 1091 55.84% 23.73% 20.44%+1.05 -15.4 6
1986-09-20 Larne D 1-152.4 1080 1172 31.42% 24.93% 43.66%-0.32 +0.7 5
1986-09-20 @ Glenavon D 1-152.4 1172 1080 43.66% 24.93% 31.42%+0.32 -0.7 10
1986-09-20 Lisburn Distillery W 5-028.0 1219 1022 65.66% 21.43% 12.90%+1.79 +19.3 10
1986-09-20 @ Glentoran L 0-528.0 1022 1219 12.90% 21.43% 65.66%-1.79 -19.3 0
1986-09-20 Portadown D 1-152.3 1043 1071 40.43% 25.03% 34.54%+0.15 -0.3 7
1986-09-20 @ Newry City D 1-152.3 1071 1043 34.54% 25.03% 40.43%-0.15 +0.3 4
1986-09-27 Carrick Rangers W 2-033.8 1046 959 54.86% 23.88% 21.26%+0.99 +13.2 9
1986-09-27 @ Bangor L 0-233.8 959 1046 21.26% 23.88% 54.86%-0.99 -13.2 2
1986-09-27 Ards L 0-141.4 1115 1172 36.13% 25.05% 38.82%-0.07 -10.8 6
1986-09-27 @ Cliftonville W 1-041.4 1172 1115 38.82% 25.05% 36.13%+0.07 +10.8 10
1986-09-27 Crusaders W 6-033.6 1142 1107 48.85% 24.59% 26.56%+0.61 +44.4 4
1986-09-27 @ Coleraine L 0-633.6 1107 1142 26.56% 24.59% 48.85%-0.61 -44.4 4
1986-09-27 Glentoran D 1-152.6 1081 1238 23.80% 24.28% 51.92%-0.80 +1.7 6
1986-09-27 @ Glenavon D 1-152.6 1238 1081 51.92% 24.28% 23.80%+0.80 -1.7 11
1986-09-27 Portadown W 2-033.4 1172 1071 56.45% 23.63% 19.93%+1.09 +12.5 13
1986-09-27 @ Larne L 0-233.4 1071 1172 19.93% 23.63% 56.45%-1.09 -12.5 4
1986-09-27 Newry City L 0-149.7 1267 1043 67.95% 20.67% 11.38%+1.99 -18.4 6
1986-09-27 @ Linfield W 1-049.7 1043 1267 11.38% 20.67% 67.95%-1.99 +18.3 10
1986-09-27 Ballymena United W 3-147.7 1003 1135 26.59% 24.59% 48.81%-0.61 +22.4 3
1986-09-27 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-347.7 1135 1003 48.81% 24.59% 26.59%+0.61 -22.4 7
1986-10-04 Lisburn Distillery W 1-034.4 1183 1026 62.19% 22.41% 15.40%+1.51 +5.2 13
1986-10-04 @ Ards L 0-134.4 1026 1183 15.40% 22.41% 62.19%-1.51 -5.2 3
1986-10-04 Glenavon D 1-152.5 1112 1083 48.06% 24.66% 27.28%+0.57 -1.3 8
1986-10-04 @ Ballymena United D 1-152.5 1083 1112 27.28% 24.66% 48.06%-0.57 +1.3 7
1986-10-04 Cliftonville W 1-045.9 946 1104 23.71% 24.26% 52.03%-0.81 +14.5 5
1986-10-04 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-145.9 1104 946 52.03% 24.26% 23.71%+0.81 -14.5 6
1986-10-04 Bangor W 1-039.6 1062 1059 44.63% 24.88% 30.49%+0.38 +9.5 7
1986-10-04 @ Crusaders L 0-139.6 1059 1062 30.49% 24.88% 44.63%-0.38 -9.5 9
1986-10-04 Larne W 3-033.3 1236 1184 50.86% 24.40% 24.75%+0.73 +21.9 14
1986-10-04 @ Glentoran L 0-333.3 1184 1236 24.75% 24.40% 50.86%-0.73 -21.9 13
1986-10-04 Coleraine D 0-048.4 1061 1187 27.32% 24.66% 48.02%-0.57 +1.4 11
1986-10-04 @ Newry City D 0-048.4 1187 1061 48.02% 24.66% 27.32%+0.57 -1.4 5
1986-10-04 Linfield D 1-152.8 1059 1249 20.54% 23.75% 55.71%-1.04 +2.2 5
1986-10-04 @ Portadown D 1-152.8 1249 1059 55.71% 23.75% 20.54%+1.04 -2.2 7
1986-10-11 Newry City D 2-257.7 1050 1063 42.36% 24.98% 32.67%+0.25 -0.4 10
1986-10-11 @ Bangor D 2-257.7 1063 1050 32.67% 24.98% 42.36%-0.25 +0.4 12
1986-10-11 Crusaders W 2-144.1 1090 1072 46.55% 24.77% 28.68%+0.48 +8.5 9
1986-10-11 @ Cliftonville L 1-244.1 1072 1090 28.68% 24.77% 46.55%-0.48 -8.5 7
1986-10-11 Portadown D 1-152.9 1185 1061 58.96% 23.15% 17.89%+1.27 -2.6 6
1986-10-11 @ Coleraine D 1-152.9 1061 1185 17.89% 23.15% 58.96%-1.27 +2.6 6
1986-10-11 Ards W 1-044.1 1084 1188 29.87% 24.85% 45.28%-0.41 +12.9 10
1986-10-11 @ Glenavon L 0-144.1 1188 1084 45.28% 24.85% 29.87%+0.41 -12.9 13
1986-10-11 Ballymena United W 7-233.7 1258 1111 61.19% 22.66% 16.15%+1.43 +16.6 17
1986-10-11 @ Glentoran L 2-733.7 1111 1258 16.15% 22.66% 61.19%-1.43 -16.6 8
1986-10-11 Linfield D 1-152.6 1162 1246 32.49% 24.97% 42.54%-0.26 +0.6 14
1986-10-11 @ Larne D 1-152.6 1246 1162 42.54% 24.97% 32.49%+0.26 -0.6 8
1986-10-11 Carrick Rangers L 0-145.8 1020 961 51.77% 24.29% 23.93%+0.79 -14.4 3
1986-10-11 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-045.8 961 1020 23.93% 24.29% 51.77%-0.79 +14.4 8
1986-10-18 Glentoran D 1-152.7 1175 1275 30.50% 24.88% 44.62%-0.38 +0.8 14
1986-10-18 @ Ards D 1-152.7 1275 1175 44.62% 24.88% 30.50%+0.38 -0.8 18
1986-10-18 Larne D 1-152.4 1094 1163 34.58% 25.03% 40.39%-0.15 +0.3 9
1986-10-18 @ Ballymena United D 1-152.4 1163 1094 40.39% 25.03% 34.58%+0.15 -0.3 15
1986-10-18 Glenavon L 1-439.0 975 1097 27.74% 24.70% 47.56%-0.54 -20.3 8
1986-10-18 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-139.0 1097 975 47.56% 24.70% 27.74%+0.54 +20.3 13
1986-10-18 Lisburn Distillery D 2-257.9 1063 1006 51.49% 24.33% 24.18%+0.77 -1.3 8
1986-10-18 @ Crusaders D 2-257.9 1006 1063 24.18% 24.33% 51.49%-0.77 +1.3 4
1986-10-18 Coleraine W 2-142.6 1246 1183 52.18% 24.25% 23.58%+0.81 +7.2 11
1986-10-18 @ Linfield L 1-242.6 1183 1246 23.58% 24.25% 52.18%-0.81 -7.2 6
1986-10-18 Cliftonville L 0-142.4 1063 1098 39.36% 25.05% 35.59%+0.10 -11.5 12
1986-10-18 @ Newry City W 1-042.4 1098 1063 35.59% 25.05% 39.36%-0.10 +11.5 12
1986-10-18 Bangor L 0-241.5 1063 1049 46.09% 24.80% 29.11%+0.46 -24.6 6
1986-10-18 @ Portadown W 2-041.5 1049 1063 29.11% 24.80% 46.09%-0.46 +24.7 13
1986-10-25 Ards W 2-148.3 1095 1176 32.82% 24.98% 42.20%-0.25 +11.5 12
1986-10-25 @ Ballymena United L 1-248.3 1176 1095 42.20% 24.98% 32.82%+0.25 -11.5 14
1986-10-25 Linfield L 0-136.8 1074 1253 21.55% 23.93% 54.51%-0.96 -7.1 13
1986-10-25 @ Bangor W 1-036.8 1253 1074 54.51% 23.93% 21.55%+0.96 +7.1 14
1986-10-25 Portadown D 1-152.6 1110 1039 53.09% 24.13% 22.78%+0.87 -1.9 13
1986-10-25 @ Cliftonville D 1-152.6 1039 1110 22.78% 24.13% 53.09%-0.87 +1.9 7
1986-10-25 Crusaders W 1-037.7 1117 1062 51.24% 24.35% 24.40%+0.76 +7.9 16
1986-10-25 @ Glenavon L 0-137.7 1062 1117 24.40% 24.35% 51.24%-0.76 -7.9 8
1986-10-25 Carrick Rangers W 2-027.8 1274 955 74.84% 17.80% 7.36%+2.69 +4.5 21
1986-10-25 @ Glentoran L 0-227.8 955 1274 7.36% 17.80% 74.84%-2.69 -4.5 8
1986-10-25 Coleraine W 2-037.6 1163 1176 42.42% 24.98% 32.60%+0.26 +18.8 18
1986-10-25 @ Larne L 0-237.6 1176 1163 32.60% 24.98% 42.42%-0.26 -18.8 6
1986-10-25 Newry City L 0-637.1 1007 1052 37.97% 25.06% 36.98%+0.03 -58.7 4
1986-10-25 @ Lisburn Distillery W 6-037.1 1052 1007 36.98% 25.06% 37.97%-0.03 +58.7 15
1986-11-01 Larne L 0-537.9 1165 1181 41.91% 24.99% 33.10%+0.23 -53.3 14
1986-11-01 @ Ards W 5-037.9 1181 1165 33.10% 24.99% 41.91%-0.23 +53.3 21
1986-11-01 Ballymena United W 3-255.9 950 1106 23.92% 24.29% 51.79%-0.79 +12.9 11
1986-11-01 @ Carrick Rangers L 2-355.9 1106 950 51.79% 24.29% 23.92%+0.79 -12.9 12
1986-11-01 Bangor W 5-135.1 1157 1067 55.28% 23.82% 20.90%+1.01 +20.6 9
1986-11-01 @ Coleraine L 1-535.1 1067 1157 20.90% 23.82% 55.28%-1.01 -20.6 13
1986-11-01 Glentoran W 3-150.5 1054 1278 17.59% 23.08% 59.34%-1.29 +26.6 11
1986-11-01 @ Crusaders L 1-350.5 1278 1054 59.34% 23.08% 17.59%+1.29 -26.6 21
1986-11-01 Cliftonville W 1-034.7 1260 1108 61.69% 22.54% 15.77%+1.47 +5.3 17
1986-11-01 @ Linfield L 0-134.7 1108 1260 15.77% 22.54% 61.69%-1.47 -5.3 13
1986-11-01 Glenavon W 2-145.4 1110 1125 42.19% 24.98% 32.83%+0.25 +9.5 18
1986-11-01 @ Newry City L 1-245.4 1125 1110 32.83% 24.98% 42.19%-0.25 -9.5 16
1986-11-01 Lisburn Distillery D 1-152.7 1041 949 55.51% 23.78% 20.71%+1.03 -2.2 8
1986-11-01 @ Portadown D 1-152.7 949 1041 20.71% 23.78% 55.51%-1.03 +2.2 5
1986-11-08 Carrick Rangers D 4-464.5 1112 963 61.30% 22.63% 16.07%+1.44 -1.6 15
1986-11-08 @ Ards D 4-464.5 963 1112 16.07% 22.63% 61.30%-1.44 +1.6 12
1986-11-08 Crusaders L 2-354.3 1093 1081 45.87% 24.81% 29.32%+0.45 -11.6 12
1986-11-08 @ Ballymena United W 3-254.3 1081 1093 29.32% 24.81% 45.87%-0.45 +11.6 14
1986-11-08 Coleraine L 0-140.7 1102 1177 33.71% 25.01% 41.27%-0.20 -10.2 13
1986-11-08 @ Cliftonville W 1-040.7 1177 1102 41.27% 25.01% 33.71%+0.20 +10.2 12
1986-11-08 Portadown W 4-031.4 1116 1038 53.82% 24.03% 22.15%+0.92 +26.0 19
1986-11-08 @ Glenavon L 0-431.4 1038 1116 22.15% 24.03% 53.82%-0.92 -26.0 8
1986-11-08 Newry City W 2-032.5 1252 1120 59.70% 23.00% 17.30%+1.32 +11.0 24
1986-11-08 @ Glentoran L 0-232.5 1120 1252 17.30% 23.00% 59.70%-1.32 -11.0 18
1986-11-08 Bangor W 2-030.8 1235 1046 65.01% 21.63% 13.36%+1.74 +8.5 24
1986-11-08 @ Larne L 0-230.8 1046 1235 13.36% 21.63% 65.01%-1.74 -8.5 13
1986-11-08 Linfield L 0-527.5 951 1265 11.65% 20.82% 67.53%-1.96 -17.3 5
1986-11-08 @ Lisburn Distillery W 5-027.5 1265 951 67.53% 20.82% 11.65%+1.96 +17.3 20
1986-11-22 Newry City W 4-352.8 1110 1109 44.31% 24.90% 30.80%+0.36 +8.3 18
1986-11-22 @ Ards L 3-452.8 1109 1110 30.80% 24.90% 44.31%-0.36 -8.3 18
1986-11-22 Portadown D 0-048.5 1082 1013 52.90% 24.16% 22.94%+0.86 -2.1 13
1986-11-22 @ Ballymena United D 0-048.5 1013 1082 22.94% 24.16% 52.90%-0.86 +2.1 9
1986-11-22 Crusaders L 2-445.2 965 1092 27.07% 24.64% 48.29%-0.58 -12.6 12
1986-11-22 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-245.2 1092 965 48.29% 24.64% 27.07%+0.58 +12.6 17
1986-11-22 Larne D 1-152.6 1092 1243 24.42% 24.36% 51.23%-0.76 +1.6 14
1986-11-22 @ Cliftonville D 1-152.6 1243 1092 51.23% 24.36% 24.42%+0.76 -1.6 25
1986-11-22 Coleraine L 0-142.0 1142 1188 37.77% 25.06% 37.17%+0.02 -11.2 19
1986-11-22 @ Glenavon W 1-042.0 1188 1142 37.17% 25.06% 37.77%-0.02 +11.2 15
1986-11-22 Linfield W 3-143.8 1263 1283 41.45% 25.01% 33.54%+0.21 +16.7 27
1986-11-22 @ Glentoran L 1-343.8 1283 1263 33.54% 25.01% 41.45%-0.21 -16.7 20
1986-11-22 Bangor W 3-146.6 933 1038 29.89% 24.85% 45.26%-0.41 +21.0 8
1986-11-22 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-346.6 1038 933 45.26% 24.85% 29.89%+0.41 -21.0 13
1986-11-29 Lisburn Distillery W 4-137.7 1016 954 52.07% 24.26% 23.67%+0.81 +17.8 16
1986-11-29 @ Bangor L 1-437.7 954 1016 23.67% 24.26% 52.07%-0.81 -17.8 8
1986-11-29 Glenavon D 1-152.7 1199 1130 52.79% 24.17% 23.04%+0.85 -1.9 16
1986-11-29 @ Coleraine D 1-152.7 1130 1199 23.04% 24.17% 52.79%-0.85 +1.8 20
1986-11-29 Carrick Rangers W 1-034.5 1105 952 61.71% 22.53% 15.75%+1.47 +5.3 20
1986-11-29 @ Crusaders L 0-134.5 952 1105 15.75% 22.53% 61.71%-1.47 -5.3 12
1986-11-29 Cliftonville W 1-034.8 1242 1094 61.26% 22.64% 16.10%+1.44 +5.4 28
1986-11-29 @ Larne L 0-134.8 1094 1242 16.10% 22.64% 61.26%-1.44 -5.4 14
1986-11-29 Glentoran W 1-040.9 1266 1279 42.36% 24.98% 32.66%+0.25 +10.0 23
1986-11-29 @ Linfield L 0-140.9 1279 1266 32.66% 24.98% 42.36%-0.25 -10.0 27
1986-11-29 Ards D 0-048.2 1101 1118 41.78% 25.00% 33.23%+0.22 -0.6 19
1986-11-29 @ Newry City D 0-048.2 1118 1101 33.23% 25.00% 41.78%-0.22 +0.6 19
1986-11-29 Ballymena United L 1-246.1 1015 1080 35.06% 25.04% 39.90%-0.12 -10.0 9
1986-11-29 @ Portadown W 2-146.1 1080 1015 39.90% 25.04% 35.06%+0.12 +9.9 16
1986-12-06 Portadown W 3-138.3 1119 1005 57.88% 23.37% 18.75%+1.19 +10.2 22
1986-12-06 @ Ards L 1-338.3 1005 1119 18.75% 23.37% 57.88%-1.19 -10.2 9
1986-12-06 Linfield D 0-048.7 1090 1276 20.87% 23.81% 55.32%-1.02 +2.4 17
1986-12-06 @ Ballymena United D 0-048.7 1276 1090 55.32% 23.81% 20.87%+1.02 -2.4 24
1986-12-06 Newry City L 2-540.8 947 1100 24.21% 24.33% 51.46%-0.77 -15.7 12
1986-12-06 @ Carrick Rangers W 5-240.8 1100 947 51.46% 24.33% 24.21%+0.77 +15.7 22
1986-12-06 Larne D 1-152.6 1110 1247 25.99% 24.53% 49.48%-0.65 +1.4 21
1986-12-06 @ Crusaders D 1-152.6 1247 1110 49.48% 24.53% 25.99%+0.65 -1.4 29
1986-12-06 Bangor W 2-033.4 1132 1034 56.16% 23.67% 20.17%+1.07 +12.6 23
1986-12-06 @ Glenavon L 0-233.4 1034 1132 20.17% 23.67% 56.16%-1.07 -12.6 16
1986-12-06 Coleraine L 0-146.6 1269 1197 53.30% 24.10% 22.59%+0.89 -14.8 27
1986-12-06 @ Glentoran W 1-046.6 1197 1269 22.59% 24.10% 53.30%-0.89 +14.8 19
1986-12-06 Cliftonville L 1-437.9 937 1088 24.35% 24.35% 51.30%-0.76 -18.2 8
1986-12-06 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-137.9 1088 937 51.30% 24.35% 24.35%+0.76 +18.2 17
1986-12-13 Glentoran L 0-232.3 1022 1255 16.91% 22.89% 60.20%-1.36 -10.7 16
1986-12-13 @ Bangor W 2-032.3 1255 1022 60.20% 22.89% 16.91%+1.36 +10.7 30
1986-12-13 Glenavon W 3-144.0 1107 1145 38.86% 25.05% 36.09%+0.07 +17.6 20
1986-12-13 @ Cliftonville L 1-344.0 1145 1107 36.09% 25.05% 38.86%-0.07 -17.6 23
1986-12-13 Ballymena United D 2-258.3 1212 1092 58.45% 23.26% 18.29%+1.23 -1.9 20
1986-12-13 @ Coleraine D 2-258.3 1092 1212 18.29% 23.26% 58.45%-1.23 +1.9 18
1986-12-13 Lisburn Distillery D 0-050.5 1246 918 75.37% 17.54% 7.09%+2.75 -5.1 30
1986-12-13 @ Larne D 0-050.5 918 1246 7.09% 17.54% 75.37%-2.75 +5.1 9
1986-12-13 Ards W 2-032.2 1274 1129 60.95% 22.72% 16.33%+1.41 +10.4 27
1986-12-13 @ Linfield L 0-232.2 1129 1274 16.33% 22.72% 60.95%-1.41 -10.4 22
1986-12-13 Crusaders W 2-144.7 1116 1112 44.73% 24.88% 30.39%+0.38 +8.9 25
1986-12-13 @ Newry City L 1-244.7 1112 1116 30.39% 24.88% 44.73%-0.38 -8.9 21
1986-12-13 Carrick Rangers L 0-243.2 994 931 52.18% 24.25% 23.57%+0.81 -27.4 9
1986-12-13 @ Portadown W 2-043.2 931 994 23.57% 24.25% 52.18%-0.81 +27.4 15
1986-12-20 Coleraine L 1-245.1 1119 1210 31.56% 24.93% 43.51%-0.32 -9.2 22
1986-12-20 @ Ards W 2-145.1 1210 1119 43.51% 24.93% 31.56%+0.32 +9.2 23
1986-12-20 Bangor W 4-349.7 1094 1011 54.49% 23.94% 21.57%+0.96 +6.2 21
1986-12-20 @ Ballymena United L 3-449.7 1011 1094 21.57% 23.94% 54.49%-0.96 -6.2 16
1986-12-20 Linfield L 0-327.8 959 1284 11.10% 20.52% 68.38%-2.03 -10.2 15
1986-12-20 @ Carrick Rangers W 3-027.8 1284 959 68.38% 20.52% 11.10%+2.03 +10.2 30
1986-12-20 Portadown L 1-252.9 1103 967 60.08% 22.92% 17.01%+1.35 -15.5 21
1986-12-20 @ Crusaders W 2-152.9 967 1103 17.01% 22.92% 60.08%-1.35 +15.5 12
1986-12-20 Lisburn Distillery W 3-135.7 1127 924 66.30% 21.23% 12.47%+1.85 +6.9 26
1986-12-20 @ Glenavon L 1-335.7 924 1127 12.47% 21.23% 66.30%-1.85 -6.9 9
1986-12-20 Cliftonville D 2-258.6 1265 1124 60.62% 22.79% 16.59%+1.39 -2.1 31
1986-12-20 @ Glentoran D 2-258.6 1124 1265 16.59% 22.79% 60.62%-1.39 +2.1 21
1986-12-20 Larne W 2-149.7 1125 1241 28.44% 24.75% 46.81%-0.50 +12.5 28
1986-12-20 @ Newry City L 1-249.7 1241 1125 46.81% 24.75% 28.44%+0.50 -12.5 30
1986-12-26 Ards L 0-433.9 1005 1109 29.81% 24.84% 45.34%-0.42 -33.3 16
1986-12-26 @ Bangor W 4-033.9 1109 1005 45.34% 24.84% 29.81%+0.42 +33.3 25
1986-12-26 Ballymena United W 3-141.4 1126 1100 47.63% 24.69% 27.68%+0.54 +14.3 24
1986-12-26 @ Cliftonville L 1-341.4 1100 1126 27.68% 24.69% 47.63%-0.54 -14.3 21
1986-12-26 Carrick Rangers W 4-238.3 1219 948 71.50% 19.30% 9.20%+2.34 +4.5 26
1986-12-26 @ Coleraine L 2-438.3 948 1219 9.20% 19.30% 71.50%-2.34 -4.5 15
1986-12-26 Glenavon D 0-048.7 1228 1134 55.71% 23.75% 20.54%+1.04 -2.5 31
1986-12-26 @ Larne D 0-048.7 1134 1228 20.54% 23.75% 55.71%-1.04 +2.5 27
1986-12-26 Crusaders W 3-135.8 1294 1087 66.58% 21.14% 12.28%+1.87 +6.8 33
1986-12-26 @ Linfield L 1-335.8 1087 1294 12.28% 21.14% 66.58%-1.87 -6.8 21
1986-12-26 Glentoran L 1-237.1 917 1263 10.07% 19.90% 70.03%-2.19 -3.2 9
1986-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-137.1 1263 917 70.03% 19.90% 10.07%+2.19 +3.2 34
1986-12-26 Newry City D 1-152.5 983 1137 24.05% 24.31% 51.64%-0.78 +1.7 13
1986-12-26 @ Portadown D 1-152.5 1137 983 51.64% 24.31% 24.05%+0.78 -1.7 29
1986-12-27 Cliftonville D 0-048.3 1143 1141 44.46% 24.89% 30.64%+0.37 -0.9 26
1986-12-27 @ Ards D 0-048.3 1141 1143 30.64% 24.89% 44.46%-0.37 +0.9 25
1986-12-27 Lisburn Distillery W 2-031.2 1086 913 63.56% 22.05% 14.39%+1.62 +9.2 24
1986-12-27 @ Ballymena United L 0-231.2 913 1086 14.39% 22.05% 63.56%-1.62 -9.2 9
1986-12-27 Bangor W 2-145.9 944 971 40.40% 25.03% 34.57%+0.15 +9.8 18
1986-12-27 @ Carrick Rangers L 1-245.9 971 944 34.57% 25.03% 40.40%-0.15 -9.8 16
1986-12-27 Coleraine L 1-536.6 1080 1223 25.31% 24.46% 50.23%-0.70 -24.3 21
1986-12-27 @ Crusaders W 5-136.6 1223 1080 50.23% 24.46% 25.31%+0.70 +24.3 29
1986-12-27 Glenavon D 1-153.1 1266 1137 59.49% 23.04% 17.47%+1.30 -2.7 35
1986-12-27 @ Glentoran D 1-153.1 1137 1266 17.47% 23.04% 59.49%-1.30 +2.7 28
1986-12-27 Linfield L 0-234.6 1135 1301 22.90% 24.15% 52.95%-0.86 -14.1 29
1986-12-27 @ Newry City W 2-034.6 1301 1135 52.95% 24.15% 22.90%+0.86 +14.1 36
1986-12-27 Larne D 2-258.4 984 1226 16.28% 22.70% 61.02%-1.42 +2.2 14
1986-12-27 @ Portadown D 2-258.4 1226 984 61.02% 22.70% 16.28%+1.42 -2.2 32
1987-01-01 Crusaders W 3-253.7 962 1056 31.11% 24.91% 43.98%-0.34 +11.2 19
1987-01-01 @ Bangor L 2-353.7 1056 962 43.98% 24.91% 31.11%+0.34 -11.2 21
1987-01-01 Carrick Rangers D 2-258.7 1142 954 64.92% 21.66% 13.42%+1.73 -2.5 26
1987-01-01 @ Cliftonville D 2-258.7 954 1142 13.42% 21.66% 64.92%-1.73 +2.5 19
1987-01-01 Newry City W 5-030.1 1248 1121 59.13% 23.12% 17.75%+1.28 +26.2 32
1987-01-01 @ Coleraine L 0-530.1 1121 1248 17.75% 23.12% 59.13%-1.28 -26.2 29
1987-01-01 Ballymena United L 1-250.4 1139 1095 49.92% 24.49% 25.59%+0.68 -13.2 28
1987-01-01 @ Glenavon W 2-150.4 1095 1139 25.59% 24.49% 49.92%-0.68 +13.2 27
1987-01-01 Glentoran W 4-036.4 1223 1264 38.58% 25.06% 36.37%+0.06 +38.8 35
1987-01-01 @ Larne L 0-436.4 1264 1223 36.37% 25.06% 38.58%-0.06 -38.8 35
1987-01-01 Portadown W 2-027.7 1315 986 75.47% 17.49% 7.04%+2.76 +4.3 39
1987-01-01 @ Linfield L 0-227.7 986 1315 7.04% 17.49% 75.47%-2.76 -4.3 14
1987-01-01 Ards L 0-232.0 904 1142 16.56% 22.79% 60.65%-1.39 -10.5 9
1987-01-01 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-032.0 1142 904 60.65% 22.79% 16.56%+1.39 +10.5 29
1987-01-03 Glenavon W 1-038.8 1152 1126 47.63% 24.69% 27.68%+0.54 +8.8 32
1987-01-03 @ Ards L 0-138.8 1126 1152 27.68% 24.69% 47.63%-0.54 -8.8 28
1987-01-03 Glentoran W 2-041.9 1108 1225 28.33% 24.74% 46.92%-0.50 +25.0 30
1987-01-03 @ Ballymena United L 0-241.9 1225 1108 46.92% 24.74% 28.33%+0.50 -25.0 35
1987-01-03 Lisburn Distillery W 1-037.4 956 894 52.13% 24.25% 23.62%+0.81 +7.7 22
1987-01-03 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-137.4 894 956 23.62% 24.25% 52.13%-0.81 -7.7 9
1987-01-03 Cliftonville W 3-253.7 1045 1139 31.16% 24.92% 43.92%-0.34 +11.2 24
1987-01-03 @ Crusaders L 2-353.7 1139 1045 43.92% 24.92% 31.16%+0.34 -11.2 26
1987-01-03 Larne W 5-033.1 1319 1262 51.48% 24.33% 24.19%+0.77 +34.5 42
1987-01-03 @ Linfield L 0-533.1 1262 1319 24.19% 24.33% 51.48%-0.77 -34.5 35
1987-01-03 Bangor W 2-032.6 1095 973 58.72% 23.20% 18.08%+1.25 +11.4 32
1987-01-03 @ Newry City L 0-232.6 973 1095 18.08% 23.20% 58.72%-1.25 -11.4 19
1987-01-03 Coleraine L 0-328.7 982 1274 12.94% 21.45% 65.61%-1.79 -12.0 14
1987-01-03 @ Portadown W 3-028.7 1274 982 65.61% 21.45% 12.94%+1.79 +12.0 35
1987-01-10 Portadown W 3-250.1 961 970 43.00% 24.96% 32.04%+0.29 +8.8 22
1987-01-10 @ Bangor L 2-350.1 970 961 32.04% 24.96% 43.00%-0.29 -8.8 14
1987-01-10 Newry City W 4-033.5 1128 1107 47.00% 24.74% 28.26%+0.51 +31.9 29
1987-01-10 @ Cliftonville L 0-433.5 1107 1128 28.26% 24.74% 47.00%-0.51 -31.9 32
1987-01-10 Linfield W 2-041.1 1286 1354 34.64% 25.03% 40.33%-0.15 +22.1 38
1987-01-10 @ Coleraine L 0-241.1 1354 1286 40.33% 25.03% 34.64%+0.15 -22.1 42
1987-01-10 Carrick Rangers W 2-031.7 1117 964 61.79% 22.51% 15.69%+1.48 +10.0 31
1987-01-10 @ Glenavon L 0-231.7 964 1117 15.69% 22.51% 61.79%-1.48 -10.0 22
1987-01-10 Ards L 2-355.3 1200 1161 49.23% 24.56% 26.21%+0.64 -12.4 35
1987-01-10 @ Glentoran W 3-255.3 1161 1200 26.21% 24.56% 49.23%-0.64 +12.4 35
1987-01-10 Ballymena United L 1-252.0 1228 1133 55.78% 23.74% 20.49%+1.05 -14.5 35
1987-01-10 @ Larne W 2-152.0 1133 1228 20.49% 23.74% 55.78%-1.05 +14.5 33
1987-01-10 Crusaders L 1-339.6 886 1056 22.45% 24.08% 53.46%-0.90 -12.0 9
1987-01-10 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-139.6 1056 886 53.46% 24.08% 22.45%+0.90 +12.0 27
1987-01-17 Ballymena United D 1-152.5 1173 1148 47.57% 24.70% 27.73%+0.54 -1.2 36
1987-01-17 @ Ards D 1-152.5 1148 1173 27.73% 24.70% 47.57%-0.54 +1.2 34
1987-01-17 Glentoran L 0-135.0 954 1188 16.87% 22.88% 60.25%-1.36 -5.7 22
1987-01-17 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-035.0 1188 954 60.25% 22.88% 16.87%+1.36 +5.7 38
1987-01-17 Larne W 1-036.8 1308 1213 55.81% 23.73% 20.46%+1.05 +6.8 41
1987-01-17 @ Coleraine L 0-136.8 1213 1308 20.46% 23.73% 55.81%-1.05 -6.8 35
1987-01-17 Glenavon D 2-257.7 1068 1127 35.87% 25.05% 39.08%-0.08 +0.1 28
1987-01-17 @ Crusaders D 2-257.7 1127 1068 39.08% 25.05% 35.87%+0.08 -0.1 32
1987-01-17 Bangor W 4-024.4 1332 970 77.51% 16.45% 6.04%+3.00 +6.9 45
1987-01-17 @ Linfield L 0-424.4 970 1332 6.04% 16.45% 77.51%-3.00 -6.9 22
1987-01-17 Lisburn Distillery W 4-133.5 1075 874 66.03% 21.32% 12.65%+1.82 +9.9 35
1987-01-17 @ Newry City L 1-433.5 874 1075 12.65% 21.32% 66.03%-1.82 -9.9 9
1987-01-17 Cliftonville L 0-233.3 961 1160 19.78% 23.60% 56.62%-1.10 -12.4 14
1987-01-17 @ Portadown W 2-033.3 1160 961 56.62% 23.60% 19.78%+1.10 +12.4 32
1987-01-24 Carrick Rangers W 3-028.5 1149 948 66.02% 21.32% 12.66%+1.82 +11.7 37
1987-01-24 @ Ballymena United L 0-328.5 948 1149 12.66% 21.32% 66.02%-1.82 -11.7 22
1987-01-24 Coleraine L 0-327.2 963 1315 9.85% 19.75% 70.39%-2.23 -9.0 22
1987-01-24 @ Bangor W 3-027.2 1315 963 70.39% 19.75% 9.85%+2.23 +9.0 44
1987-01-24 Linfield L 0-137.6 1172 1339 22.80% 24.13% 53.07%-0.87 -7.4 32
1987-01-24 @ Cliftonville W 1-037.6 1339 1172 53.07% 24.13% 22.80%+0.87 +7.5 48
1987-01-24 Newry City L 1-347.9 1127 1085 49.72% 24.51% 25.77%+0.67 -22.8 32
1987-01-24 @ Glenavon W 3-147.9 1085 1127 25.77% 24.51% 49.72%-0.67 +22.8 38
1987-01-24 Crusaders W 3-030.7 1193 1068 59.00% 23.15% 17.86%+1.27 +16.4 41
1987-01-24 @ Glentoran L 0-330.7 1068 1193 17.86% 23.15% 59.00%-1.27 -16.4 28
1987-01-24 Ards L 1-250.2 1206 1172 48.64% 24.61% 26.75%+0.60 -12.9 35
1987-01-24 @ Larne W 2-150.2 1172 1206 26.75% 24.61% 48.64%-0.60 +12.9 39
1987-01-24 Portadown L 1-245.2 864 949 32.39% 24.97% 42.64%-0.27 -9.4 9
1987-01-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-145.2 949 864 42.64% 24.97% 32.39%+0.27 +9.4 17
1987-01-31 Cliftonville D 1-152.8 954 1165 18.75% 23.37% 57.89%-1.19 +2.5 23
1987-01-31 @ Bangor D 1-152.8 1165 954 57.89% 23.37% 18.75%+1.19 -2.5 33
1987-01-31 Larne L 0-231.5 937 1194 15.17% 22.34% 62.49%-1.53 -9.7 22
1987-01-31 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-031.5 1194 937 62.49% 22.34% 15.17%+1.53 +9.7 38
1987-01-31 Lisburn Distillery W 4-128.3 1324 855 83.23% 13.13% 3.64%+3.79 +2.5 47
1987-01-31 @ Coleraine L 1-428.3 855 1324 3.64% 13.13% 83.23%-3.79 -2.5 9
1987-01-31 Ards L 1-341.0 1052 1185 26.40% 24.58% 49.03%-0.63 -13.8 28
1987-01-31 @ Crusaders W 3-141.0 1185 1052 49.03% 24.58% 26.40%+0.63 +13.8 42
1987-01-31 Glenavon W 1-032.5 1346 1105 69.35% 20.16% 10.49%+2.12 +3.5 51
1987-01-31 @ Linfield L 0-132.5 1105 1346 10.49% 20.16% 69.35%-2.12 -3.5 32
1987-01-31 Ballymena United L 1-540.2 1107 1161 36.71% 25.06% 38.24%-0.04 -32.6 38
1987-01-31 @ Newry City W 5-140.2 1161 1107 38.24% 25.06% 36.71%+0.04 +32.6 40
1987-01-31 Glentoran L 2-344.5 958 1210 15.56% 22.47% 61.98%-1.49 -4.7 17
1987-01-31 @ Portadown W 3-244.5 1210 958 61.98% 22.47% 15.56%+1.49 +4.7 44
1987-02-07 Larne L 0-329.9 957 1203 15.92% 22.59% 61.50%-1.45 -14.7 23
1987-02-07 @ Bangor W 3-029.9 1203 957 61.50% 22.59% 15.92%+1.45 +14.7 41
1987-02-07 Ards L 0-528.5 927 1199 14.16% 21.96% 63.87%-1.64 -21.1 22
1987-02-07 @ Carrick Rangers W 5-028.5 1199 927 63.87% 21.96% 14.16%+1.64 +21.1 45
1987-02-07 Cliftonville W 4-134.9 1326 1162 62.80% 22.25% 14.94%+1.56 +11.7 50
1987-02-07 @ Coleraine L 1-434.9 1162 1326 14.94% 22.25% 62.80%-1.56 -11.7 33
1987-02-07 Ballymena United D 3-362.0 1038 1193 24.00% 24.30% 51.70%-0.79 +1.1 29
1987-02-07 @ Crusaders D 3-362.0 1193 1038 51.70% 24.30% 24.00%+0.79 -1.1 41
1987-02-07 Lisburn Distillery W 6-022.9 1350 852 84.53% 12.30% 3.17%+4.00 +4.8 54
1987-02-07 @ Linfield L 0-622.9 852 1350 3.17% 12.30% 84.53%-4.00 -4.8 9
1987-02-07 Glentoran D 1-152.6 1075 1214 25.67% 24.50% 49.82%-0.67 +1.5 39
1987-02-07 @ Newry City D 1-152.6 1214 1075 49.82% 24.50% 25.67%+0.67 -1.5 45
1987-02-07 Glenavon W 1-045.6 954 1101 24.82% 24.41% 50.78%-0.73 +14.2 20
1987-02-07 @ Portadown L 0-145.6 1101 954 50.78% 24.41% 24.82%+0.73 -14.2 32
1987-02-14 Crusaders W 3-029.1 1220 1039 64.32% 21.84% 13.85%+1.68 +12.8 48
1987-02-14 @ Ards L 0-329.1 1039 1220 13.85% 21.84% 64.32%-1.68 -12.8 29
1987-02-14 Newry City L 1-252.5 1192 1076 58.07% 23.33% 18.60%+1.20 -15.1 41
1987-02-14 @ Ballymena United W 2-152.5 1076 1192 18.60% 23.33% 58.07%-1.20 +15.1 42
1987-02-14 Bangor L 1-254.4 1150 942 66.68% 21.11% 12.21%+1.88 -17.0 33
1987-02-14 @ Cliftonville W 2-154.4 942 1150 12.21% 21.11% 66.68%-1.88 +17.0 26
1987-02-14 Linfield L 1-239.3 1087 1355 14.44% 22.07% 63.49%-1.61 -4.6 32
1987-02-14 @ Glenavon W 2-139.3 1355 1087 63.49% 22.07% 14.44%+1.61 +4.6 57
1987-02-14 Portadown W 4-026.7 1213 968 69.62% 20.06% 10.33%+2.15 +12.4 48
1987-02-14 @ Glentoran L 0-426.7 968 1213 10.33% 20.06% 69.62%-2.15 -12.4 20
1987-02-14 Carrick Rangers D 1-154.4 1218 906 74.38% 18.02% 7.60%+2.64 -4.5 42
1987-02-14 @ Larne D 1-154.4 906 1218 7.60% 18.02% 74.38%-2.64 +4.4 23
1987-02-14 Coleraine L 2-827.2 848 1338 5.19% 15.42% 79.39%-3.25 -5.8 9
1987-02-14 @ Lisburn Distillery W 8-227.2 1338 848 79.39% 15.42% 5.19%+3.25 +5.8 53

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-09-27 11.38% Newry City 1043 1 @ Linfield 1267 0
2 1987-02-14 12.21% Bangor 942 2 @ Cliftonville 1150 1
3 1986-09-20 15.18% Bangor 1029 1 @ Ards 1189 0
4 1986-12-20 17.01% Portadown 967 2 @ Crusaders 1103 1
5 1986-11-01 17.59% @ Crusaders 1054 3 Glentoran 1278 1
6 1987-02-14 18.60% Newry City 1076 2 @ Ballymena United 1192 1
7 1986-09-20 20.44% @ Crusaders 1091 1 Linfield 1282 0
8 1987-01-10 20.49% Ballymena United 1133 2 @ Larne 1228 1
9 1986-09-06 22.14% Newry City 1038 3 @ Crusaders 1115 1
10 1986-12-06 22.59% Coleraine 1197 1 @ Glentoran 1269 0
11 1986-12-13 23.57% Carrick Rangers 931 2 @ Portadown 994 0
12 1986-10-04 23.71% @ Carrick Rangers 946 1 Cliftonville 1104 0
13 1986-11-01 23.92% @ Carrick Rangers 950 3 Ballymena United 1106 2
14 1986-10-11 23.93% Carrick Rangers 961 1 @ Lisburn Distillery 1020 0
15 1987-02-07 24.82% @ Portadown 954 1 Glenavon 1101 0
16 1987-01-01 25.59% Ballymena United 1095 2 @ Glenavon 1139 1
17 1987-01-24 25.77% Newry City 1085 3 @ Glenavon 1127 1
18 1986-09-06 25.94% @ Ards 1156 2 Linfield 1293 1
19 1987-01-10 26.21% Ards 1161 3 @ Glentoran 1200 2
20 1986-09-27 26.59% @ Lisburn Distillery 1003 3 Ballymena United 1135 1
21 1987-01-24 26.75% Ards 1172 2 @ Larne 1206 1
22 1987-01-03 28.33% @ Ballymena United 1108 2 Glentoran 1225 0
23 1986-12-20 28.44% @ Newry City 1125 2 Larne 1241 1
24 1986-10-18 29.11% Bangor 1049 2 @ Portadown 1063 0
25 1986-11-08 29.32% Crusaders 1081 3 @ Ballymena United 1093 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-10-25 58.69 Newry City 6 1052 36.98% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1007 37.97% 25.06%
2 1986-11-01 53.34 Larne 5 1181 33.10% @ Ards 0 1165 41.91% 24.99%
3 1986-09-27 44.36 @ Coleraine 6 1142 48.85% Crusaders 0 1107 26.56% 24.59%
4 1987-01-01 38.82 @ Larne 4 1223 38.58% Glentoran 0 1264 36.37% 25.06%
5 1987-01-03 34.55 @ Linfield 5 1319 51.48% Larne 0 1262 24.19% 24.33%
6 1986-12-26 33.28 Ards 4 1109 45.34% @ Bangor 0 1005 29.81% 24.84%
7 1987-01-31 32.58 Ballymena United 5 1161 38.24% @ Newry City 1 1107 36.71% 25.06%
8 1987-01-10 31.88 @ Cliftonville 4 1128 47.00% Newry City 0 1107 28.26% 24.74%
9 1986-12-13 27.39 Carrick Rangers 2 931 23.57% @ Portadown 0 994 52.18% 24.25%
10 1986-11-01 26.60 @ Crusaders 3 1054 17.59% Glentoran 1 1278 59.34% 23.08%
11 1987-01-01 26.25 @ Coleraine 5 1248 59.13% Newry City 0 1121 17.75% 23.12%
12 1986-11-08 25.99 @ Glenavon 4 1116 53.82% Portadown 0 1038 22.15% 24.03%
13 1987-01-03 25.01 @ Ballymena United 2 1108 28.33% Glentoran 0 1225 46.92% 24.74%
14 1986-10-18 24.65 Bangor 2 1049 29.11% @ Portadown 0 1063 46.09% 24.80%
15 1986-09-06 24.39 Newry City 3 1038 22.14% @ Crusaders 1 1115 53.83% 24.03%
16 1986-12-27 24.26 Coleraine 5 1223 50.23% @ Crusaders 1 1080 25.31% 24.46%
17 1987-01-24 22.75 Newry City 3 1085 25.77% @ Glenavon 1 1127 49.72% 24.51%
18 1986-09-27 22.40 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1003 26.59% Ballymena United 1 1135 48.81% 24.59%
19 1987-01-10 22.13 @ Coleraine 2 1286 34.64% Linfield 0 1354 40.33% 25.03%
20 1986-10-04 21.88 @ Glentoran 3 1236 50.86% Larne 0 1184 24.75% 24.40%
21 1987-02-07 21.15 Ards 5 1199 63.87% @ Carrick Rangers 0 927 14.16% 21.96%
22 1986-11-22 21.02 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 933 29.89% Bangor 1 1038 45.26% 24.85%
23 1986-11-01 20.58 @ Coleraine 5 1157 55.28% Bangor 1 1067 20.90% 23.82%
24 1986-09-13 20.38 Ards 3 1169 31.51% @ Coleraine 1 1164 43.56% 24.93%
25 1986-10-18 20.27 Glenavon 4 1097 47.56% @ Carrick Rangers 1 975 27.74% 24.70%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-11-08 64.5 @ Ards 4 1112 61.30% Carrick Rangers 4 963 16.07% 22.63%
2 1987-02-07 62.0 @ Crusaders 3 1038 24.00% Ballymena United 3 1193 51.70% 24.30%
3 1987-01-01 58.7 @ Cliftonville 2 1142 64.92% Carrick Rangers 2 954 13.42% 21.66%
4 1986-12-20 58.6 @ Glentoran 2 1265 60.62% Cliftonville 2 1124 16.59% 22.79%
5 1986-12-27 58.4 @ Portadown 2 984 16.28% Larne 2 1226 61.02% 22.70%
6 1986-12-13 58.3 @ Coleraine 2 1212 58.45% Ballymena United 2 1092 18.29% 23.26%
7 1986-09-20 58.1 @ Carrick Rangers 2 958 20.90% Coleraine 2 1144 55.29% 23.82%
8 1986-09-13 57.9 @ Cliftonville 2 1113 29.61% Glentoran 2 1219 45.56% 24.83%
9 1986-10-18 57.9 @ Crusaders 2 1063 51.49% Lisburn Distillery 2 1006 24.18% 24.33%
10 1986-08-29 57.8 @ Portadown 2 1072 32.43% Ards 2 1156 42.60% 24.97%
11 1986-10-11 57.7 @ Bangor 2 1050 42.36% Newry City 2 1063 32.67% 24.98%
12 1987-01-17 57.7 @ Crusaders 2 1068 35.87% Glenavon 2 1127 39.08% 25.05%
13 1986-11-01 55.9 @ Carrick Rangers 3 950 23.92% Ballymena United 2 1106 51.79% 24.29%
14 1987-01-10 55.3 Ards 3 1161 26.21% @ Glentoran 2 1200 49.23% 24.56%
15 1987-02-14 54.4 Bangor 2 942 12.21% @ Cliftonville 1 1150 66.68% 21.11%
16 1987-02-14 54.4 @ Larne 1 1218 74.38% Carrick Rangers 1 906 7.60% 18.02%
17 1986-11-08 54.3 Crusaders 3 1081 29.32% @ Ballymena United 2 1093 45.87% 24.81%
18 1987-01-01 53.7 @ Bangor 3 962 31.11% Crusaders 2 1056 43.98% 24.91%
19 1987-01-03 53.7 @ Crusaders 3 1045 31.16% Cliftonville 2 1139 43.92% 24.92%
20 1986-12-27 53.1 @ Glentoran 1 1266 59.49% Glenavon 1 1137 17.47% 23.04%
21 1986-10-11 52.9 @ Coleraine 1 1185 58.96% Portadown 1 1061 17.89% 23.15%
22 1986-12-20 52.9 Portadown 2 967 17.01% @ Crusaders 1 1103 60.08% 22.92%
23 1986-10-04 52.8 @ Portadown 1 1059 20.54% Linfield 1 1249 55.71% 23.75%
24 1986-11-22 52.8 @ Ards 4 1110 44.31% Newry City 3 1109 30.80% 24.90%
25 1987-01-31 52.8 @ Bangor 1 954 18.75% Cliftonville 1 1165 57.89% 23.37%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-02-07 22.9 @ Linfield 6 1350 84.53% Lisburn Distillery 0 852 3.17% 12.30%
2 1987-01-17 24.4 @ Linfield 4 1332 77.51% Bangor 0 970 6.04% 16.45%
3 1987-02-14 26.7 @ Glentoran 4 1213 69.62% Portadown 0 968 10.33% 20.06%
4 1987-01-24 27.2 Coleraine 3 1315 70.39% @ Bangor 0 963 9.85% 19.75%
5 1987-02-14 27.2 Coleraine 8 1338 79.39% @ Lisburn Distillery 2 848 5.19% 15.42%
6 1986-11-08 27.5 Linfield 5 1265 67.53% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 951 11.65% 20.82%
7 1987-01-01 27.7 @ Linfield 2 1315 75.47% Portadown 0 986 7.04% 17.49%
8 1986-10-25 27.8 @ Glentoran 2 1274 74.84% Carrick Rangers 0 955 7.36% 17.80%
9 1986-12-20 27.8 Linfield 3 1284 68.38% @ Carrick Rangers 0 959 11.10% 20.52%
10 1986-09-20 28.0 @ Glentoran 5 1219 65.66% Lisburn Distillery 0 1022 12.90% 21.43%
11 1987-01-31 28.3 @ Coleraine 4 1324 83.23% Lisburn Distillery 1 855 3.64% 13.13%
12 1987-01-24 28.5 @ Ballymena United 3 1149 66.02% Carrick Rangers 0 948 12.66% 21.32%
13 1987-02-07 28.5 Ards 5 1199 63.87% @ Carrick Rangers 0 927 14.16% 21.96%
14 1987-01-03 28.7 Coleraine 3 1274 65.61% @ Portadown 0 982 12.94% 21.45%
15 1987-02-14 29.1 @ Ards 3 1220 64.32% Crusaders 0 1039 13.85% 21.84%
16 1987-02-07 29.9 Larne 3 1203 61.50% @ Bangor 0 957 15.92% 22.59%
17 1986-08-30 30.1 @ Linfield 3 1278 61.31% Ballymena United 0 1130 16.06% 22.63%
18 1987-01-01 30.1 @ Coleraine 5 1248 59.13% Newry City 0 1121 17.75% 23.12%
19 1987-01-24 30.7 @ Glentoran 3 1193 59.00% Crusaders 0 1068 17.86% 23.15%
20 1986-11-08 30.8 @ Larne 2 1235 65.01% Bangor 0 1046 13.36% 21.63%
21 1986-12-27 31.2 @ Ballymena United 2 1086 63.56% Lisburn Distillery 0 913 14.39% 22.05%
22 1986-11-08 31.4 @ Glenavon 4 1116 53.82% Portadown 0 1038 22.15% 24.03%
23 1987-01-31 31.5 Larne 2 1194 62.49% @ Carrick Rangers 0 937 15.17% 22.34%
24 1986-09-13 31.7 @ Larne 3 1154 55.43% Newry City 0 1062 20.78% 23.79%
25 1987-01-10 31.7 @ Glenavon 2 1117 61.79% Carrick Rangers 0 964 15.69% 22.51%