2015-16 NIFL Premiership Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Crusaders

91 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Crusaders

5.27 points above expected

91 points · 85.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cliftonville

3.63 points below expected

64 points · 67.63 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Crusaders	33	23	7	3	76	71	27	+44	71.51	+4.49
2	Linfield	33	22	5	6	71	79	33	+46	62.00	+9.00
3	Glenavon	33	18	9	6	63	68	36	+32	60.75	+2.25
4	Cliftonville	33	17	10	6	61	54	40	+14	59.29	+1.71
5	Coleraine	33	17	3	13	54	43	38	+5	47.99	+6.01
6	Glentoran	33	14	6	13	48	42	47	-5	49.75	-1.75
7	Dungannon Swifts	33	10	6	17	36	41	55	-14	34.78	+1.22
8	Ballymena United	33	9	7	17	34	49	71	-22	38.01	-4.01
9	Portadown	33	9	4	20	31	37	61	-24	44.68	-13.68
10	Carrick Rangers	33	6	10	17	28	36	61	-25	28.03	-0.03
11	Ballinamallard United	33	7	6	20	27	31	53	-22	31.86	-4.86
12	Warrenpoint Town	33	7	5	21	26	37	66	-29	28.95	-2.95

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Crusaders	38	28	7	3	91	79	28	+51	85.73	+5.27
2	Linfield	38	26	5	7	83	91	35	+56	80.07	+2.93
3	Glenavon	38	20	9	9	69	73	41	+32	70.78	-1.78
4	Cliftonville	38	18	10	10	64	58	53	+5	67.63	-3.63
5	Coleraine	38	18	4	16	58	47	46	+1	58.55	-0.55
6	Glentoran	38	15	7	16	52	45	54	-9	52.38	-0.38

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Dungannon Swifts	38	12	7	19	43	51	66	-15	44.36	-1.36
2	Ballymena United	38	11	7	20	40	57	81	-24	41.26	-1.26
3	Portadown	38	11	5	22	38	42	66	-24	37.66	+0.34
4	Carrick Rangers	38	8	11	19	35	43	68	-25	33.80	+1.20
5	Ballinamallard United	38	9	7	22	34	38	60	-22	33.49	+0.51
6	Warrenpoint Town	38	9	7	22	34	45	71	-26	33.47	+0.53

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Crusaders	91	85.73	+5.27
2	Linfield	83	80.07	+2.93
3	Carrick Rangers	35	33.80	+1.20
4	Warrenpoint Town	34	33.47	+0.53
5	Ballinamallard United	34	33.49	+0.51

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cliftonville	64	67.63	-3.63
2	Glenavon	69	70.78	-1.78
3	Dungannon Swifts	43	44.36	-1.36
4	Ballymena United	40	41.26	-1.26
5	Coleraine	58	58.55	-0.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Warrenpoint Town	4	Jan 16 – Feb 12	1 in 390
2	Ballymena United	2	Sep 5 – Sep 12	1 in 33
3	Crusaders	8	Oct 24 – Dec 18	1 in 30
4	Linfield	6	Aug 8 – Sep 5	1 in 20
5	Coleraine	4	Sep 26 – Oct 17	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Warrenpoint Town	13	Sep 12 – Dec 12	1 in 619
2	Portadown	6	Dec 19 – Jan 30	1 in 141
3	Linfield	4	Nov 7 – Nov 28	1 in 78
4	Glentoran	4	Dec 26 – Jan 23	1 in 74
5	Cliftonville	4	Apr 16 – Apr 30	1 in 42

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Warrenpoint Town	7	Dec 19 – Feb 12	1 in 1,129
2	Ballymena United	6	Mar 12 – Apr 16	1 in 213
3	Coleraine	11	Sep 19 – Nov 27	1 in 99
4	Crusaders	20	Aug 12 – Dec 26	1 in 81
5	Cliftonville	12	Sep 19 – Dec 12	1 in 42

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Portadown	9	Feb 15 – Apr 16	1 in 67
2	Cliftonville	5	Dec 19 – Jan 16	1 in 66
3	Warrenpoint Town	16	Sep 12 – Jan 1	1 in 34
4	Ballinamallard United	10	Nov 7 – Jan 23	1 in 24
5	Coleraine	7	Mar 19 – Apr 23	1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Crusaders	1496	91	+37	15	10.1	+4.9
Linfield	1472	83	+40	12	9.2	+2.8
Glenavon	1356	69	-10	6	7.5	-1.5
Cliftonville	1247	64	-68	3	6.5	-3.5
Coleraine	1217	58	+2	4	4.5	-0.5
Glentoran	1203	52	-2	4	4.4	-0.4
Dungannon Swifts	1141	43	-19	7	8.2	-1.2
Ballymena United	1090	40	-23	6	7.5	-1.5
Portadown	1096	38	+5	7	6.6	+0.4
Carrick Rangers	1061	35	+10	7	5.6	+1.4
Warrenpoint Town	1140	34	+19	8	7.6	+0.4
Ballinamallard United	1090	34	+9	7	6.5	+0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BU	BU	CR	CLI	COL	CRU	DS	GLE	GLE	LIN	POR	WT
Ballinamallard United	—	2-1-1 4.87	0-1-3 6.42	0-0-3 1.91	0-0-3 2.63	0-1-2 1.52	0-2-2 5.14	0-0-3 1.96	2-0-1 2.60	0-1-2 1.62	2-1-1 4.23	3-0-1 5.67
Ballymena United	1-1-2 6.34	—	2-2-0 6.84	1-1-1 2.08	0-0-3 3.27	0-1-2 1.45	2-0-2 5.37	0-1-2 2.32	1-0-2 2.88	0-0-3 2.47	1-1-2 5.34	3-0-1 6.53
Carrick Rangers	3-1-0 4.79	0-2-2 4.37	—	0-1-2 1.59	1-0-2 2.25	1-0-2 1.12	3-1-0 4.02	0-1-2 1.66	0-1-2 2.53	0-1-2 1.51	0-1-3 4.06	0-2-2 5.09
Cliftonville	3-0-0 6.54	1-1-1 6.37	2-1-0 6.90	—	1-1-2 7.29	0-1-3 3.91	2-1-0 6.37	2-2-0 5.53	2-0-2 7.20	1-1-2 4.38	3-0-0 5.53	1-2-0 7.03
Coleraine	3-0-0 5.79	3-0-0 5.13	2-0-1 6.19	2-1-1 3.93	—	0-1-3 2.48	2-0-1 5.42	0-0-4 4.04	1-2-1 5.52	0-0-4 3.63	3-0-0 4.64	2-0-1 6.39
Crusaders	2-1-0 6.98	2-1-0 7.06	2-0-1 7.43	3-1-0 7.31	3-1-0 8.81	—	3-0-0 6.99	3-1-0 7.06	3-1-0 8.32	3-0-1 6.57	2-0-1 6.35	2-1-0 7.38
Dungannon Swifts	2-2-0 6.06	2-0-2 5.83	0-1-3 7.20	0-1-2 2.08	1-0-2 2.99	0-0-3 1.51	—	0-0-3 2.02	1-1-1 2.76	0-0-3 1.81	3-1-0 5.20	3-1-0 5.78
Glenavon	3-0-0 6.50	2-1-0 6.12	2-1-0 6.82	0-2-2 5.68	4-0-0 7.18	0-1-3 4.16	3-0-0 6.43	—	1-1-2 7.50	1-1-2 4.80	2-1-0 5.86	2-1-0 6.56
Glentoran	1-0-2 5.82	2-0-1 5.54	2-1-0 5.90	2-0-2 4.02	1-2-1 5.68	0-1-3 2.94	1-1-1 5.65	2-1-1 3.73	—	0-1-3 3.41	2-0-1 4.73	2-0-1 6.05
Linfield	2-1-0 6.87	3-0-0 5.96	2-1-0 6.98	2-1-1 6.83	4-0-0 7.60	1-0-3 4.63	3-0-0 6.66	2-1-1 6.41	3-1-0 7.83	—	1-0-2 6.04	3-0-0 6.88
Portadown	1-1-2 6.99	2-1-1 5.87	3-1-0 7.16	0-0-3 2.89	0-0-3 3.77	1-0-2 2.11	0-1-3 6.01	0-1-2 2.57	1-0-2 3.67	2-0-1 2.40	—	1-0-3 6.50
Warrenpoint Town	1-0-3 5.53	1-0-3 4.68	2-2-0 6.11	0-2-1 1.47	1-0-2 2.06	0-1-2 1.16	0-1-3 5.42	0-1-2 1.91	1-0-2 2.38	0-0-3 1.61	3-0-1 4.71	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+10.4
Allowed	0.84	-11.4
Differential	0.95	+6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	10.09%	6.36%	3.73%	2.19%	0.66%	25.66%
1	10.09%	10.53%	6.80%	4.39%	0.44%	1.54%	33.77%
2	6.36%	6.80%	3.95%	1.10%	2.19%	0.22%	20.61%
3	3.73%	4.39%	1.10%	1.75%	0.66%	0.22%	11.84%
4	2.19%	0.44%	2.19%	0.66%	—	—	5.48%
5+	0.66%	1.54%	0.22%	0.22%	—	—	2.63%
Total	25.66%	33.77%	20.61%	11.84%	5.48%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.47	1.47	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.99
CV	0.90	0.90	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.26%	13.16%	7.89%	2.63%	—	2.63%	31.58%
1	7.89%	13.16%	18.42%	5.26%	—	2.63%	47.37%
2	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	5.26%	—	13.16%
3	5.26%	—	—	—	—	—	5.26%
4	—	—	2.63%	—	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.68%	28.95%	28.95%	7.89%	5.26%	5.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.58	-0.58
SD	0.96	1.37	1.73
CV	0.96	0.87	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	2.63%	13.16%	—	5.26%	—	23.68%
1	7.89%	10.53%	5.26%	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	34.21%
2	2.63%	2.63%	5.26%	5.26%	10.53%	—	26.32%
3	—	5.26%	—	—	—	—	5.26%
4	—	—	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	7.89%
5+	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
Total	13.16%	23.68%	28.95%	13.16%	18.42%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.13	-0.63
SD	1.37	1.53	2.08
CV	0.91	0.72	—
Max	6	7	+5
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	10.53%	10.53%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	31.58%
1	2.63%	15.79%	15.79%	—	—	2.63%	36.84%
2	—	10.53%	7.89%	2.63%	—	—	21.05%
3	—	5.26%	—	2.63%	—	—	7.89%
4	—	—	—	2.63%	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.26%	42.11%	34.21%	10.53%	2.63%	5.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.13	1.79	-0.66
SD	1.04	1.14	1.56
CV	0.92	0.64	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	5.26%	7.89%	2.63%	2.63%	—	21.05%
1	18.42%	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	2.63%	31.58%
2	7.89%	7.89%	10.53%	—	—	—	26.32%
3	2.63%	5.26%	—	7.89%	—	—	15.79%
4	2.63%	—	2.63%	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	34.21%	23.68%	21.05%	15.79%	2.63%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.53	1.39	+0.13
SD	1.16	1.41	1.88
CV	0.76	1.01	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	13.16%	5.26%	10.53%	2.63%	—	34.21%
1	10.53%	7.89%	2.63%	5.26%	—	—	26.32%
2	7.89%	15.79%	—	2.63%	—	—	26.32%
3	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	—	—	7.89%
4	5.26%	—	—	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.58%	39.47%	7.89%	18.42%	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.21	+0.03
SD	1.17	1.17	2.02
CV	0.95	0.96	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	—	2.63%	—	—	—	5.26%
1	26.32%	10.53%	2.63%	—	—	—	39.47%
2	7.89%	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	—	18.42%
3	5.26%	10.53%	2.63%	—	2.63%	—	21.05%
4	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	—	—	10.53%
5+	5.26%	—	—	—	—	—	5.26%
Total	52.63%	26.32%	18.42%	—	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.08	0.74	+1.34
SD	1.32	0.95	1.53
CV	0.64	1.29	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	18.42%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	31.58%
1	5.26%	7.89%	7.89%	5.26%	—	2.63%	28.95%
2	7.89%	5.26%	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	23.68%
3	—	5.26%	—	2.63%	—	—	7.89%
4	—	—	5.26%	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
Total	15.79%	39.47%	21.05%	10.53%	7.89%	5.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.34	1.74	-0.39
SD	1.30	1.45	2.01
CV	0.97	0.83	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	10.53%	2.63%	—	—	—	15.79%
1	13.16%	13.16%	2.63%	5.26%	—	—	34.21%
2	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	—	15.79%
3	7.89%	7.89%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	—	23.68%
4	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	7.89%	—	—	—	—	7.89%
Total	28.95%	47.37%	13.16%	7.89%	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.92	1.08	+0.84
SD	1.58	1.00	1.82
CV	0.82	0.92	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	13.16%	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%	—	31.58%
1	13.16%	13.16%	2.63%	5.26%	—	—	34.21%
2	13.16%	5.26%	2.63%	—	2.63%	—	23.68%
3	—	2.63%	—	—	—	2.63%	5.26%
4	—	—	5.26%	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.95%	34.21%	15.79%	10.53%	7.89%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.42	-0.24
SD	1.11	1.37	1.78
CV	0.94	0.96	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	2.63%	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	10.53%
1	10.53%	10.53%	5.26%	—	—	—	26.32%
2	7.89%	5.26%	—	2.63%	—	—	15.79%
3	13.16%	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	23.68%
4	10.53%	—	—	2.63%	—	—	13.16%
5+	2.63%	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	—	10.53%
Total	44.74%	28.95%	15.79%	10.53%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.39	0.92	+1.47
SD	1.64	1.02	2.08
CV	0.68	1.11	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.26%	21.05%	5.26%	7.89%	2.63%	—	42.11%
1	2.63%	2.63%	7.89%	7.89%	2.63%	—	23.68%
2	5.26%	13.16%	2.63%	—	—	—	21.05%
3	—	—	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	—	10.53%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	2.63%	—	—	2.63%
Total	13.16%	36.84%	21.05%	21.05%	7.89%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.11	1.74	-0.63
SD	1.23	1.18	1.55
CV	1.11	0.68	—
Max	5	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.53%	7.89%	7.89%	2.63%	—	28.95%
1	2.63%	15.79%	10.53%	7.89%	—	5.26%	42.11%
2	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	—	2.63%	2.63%	15.79%
3	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	—	—	7.89%
4	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.79%	34.21%	21.05%	15.79%	5.26%	7.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.87	-0.68
SD	1.11	1.51	2.12
CV	0.94	0.81	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Crusaders	1496	91	71.51	+19.49	77.0%	54	60	68	72	76	81	83
Linfield	1472	83	62.00	+21.00	96.0%	48	53	58	62	66	71	76
Glenavon	1356	69	60.75	+8.25	62.0%	40	46	55	61	67	73	76
Cliftonville	1247	64	59.29	+4.71	67.0%	43	47	55	60	63	71	77
Coleraine	1217	58	47.99	+10.01	81.0%	28	37	43	48	53	59	70
Glentoran	1203	52	49.75	+2.25	38.0%	32	34	45	51	54	59	63
Dungannon Swifts	1141	43	34.78	+8.22	57.0%	15	19	31	35	38	47	49
Warrenpoint Town	1140	34	28.95	+5.05	37.0%	17	18	24	29	33	40	45
Portadown	1096	38	44.68	-6.68	3.0%	26	32	39	43	50	59	63
Ballinamallard United	1090	34	31.86	+2.14	26.0%	19	20	27	31	37	43	50
Ballymena United	1090	40	38.01	+1.99	31.0%	19	26	33	38	43	50	55
Carrick Rangers	1061	35	28.03	+6.97	52.0%	8	16	23	28	34	38	41

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+4.82%

No Edge

42.98%18.86%38.16%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 16.78 Elo pts.

196 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.8

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

73%

Crusaders, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.21/gm

Comfortable

00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.6 * Some Luck: 5.6 to 8.4 * Lucky: 8.4 to 11.2 * Wild Swing: 11.2 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.41 * Off: 1.41 to 1.88 * Way Off: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.66 points

Some Luck

07.0017

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.182.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.00%

Linfield

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Portadown

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Even

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 141.92

2.35

Wide Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

78%

Clear Edge

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

91%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

56%

Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Rare

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.54

Highly Predictable

00.562

Matchup Imbalance

0.41

Slight Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.64

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.89

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.

Probability calibration

0.85

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.20

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.078

Well Within Noise

00.1120.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Crusaders	73.00%	19.00%	7.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Linfield	9.00%	35.00%	26.00%	21.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	13.00%	25.00%	25.00%	20.00%	7.00%	7.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—
Cliftonville	5.00%	18.00%	23.00%	29.00%	18.00%	4.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Coleraine	—	1.00%	8.00%	8.00%	20.00%	29.00%	19.00%	11.00%	1.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Glentoran	—	1.00%	6.00%	13.00%	36.00%	25.00%	10.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—
Dungannon Swifts	—	—	—	—	—	6.00%	13.00%	18.00%	25.00%	18.00%	14.00%	6.00%
Ballymena United	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	11.00%	15.00%	21.00%	19.00%	17.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Portadown	—	1.00%	5.00%	7.00%	9.00%	13.00%	34.00%	16.00%	10.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%
Carrick Rangers	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	8.00%	12.00%	17.00%	27.00%	35.00%
Ballinamallard United	—	—	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	16.00%	20.00%	20.00%	19.00%	19.00%
Warrenpoint Town	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	12.00%	21.00%	28.00%	32.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Crusaders	89.76%	10.22%	0.02%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Linfield	10.23%	87.43%	2.27%	0.07%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	0.01%	2.14%	73.83%	23.79%	0.23%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cliftonville	—	0.21%	23.70%	74.16%	1.93%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Coleraine	—	—	0.18%	1.98%	91.26%	6.58%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	—	—	—	—	6.58%	93.42%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	—	—	—	—	—	—	71.18%	22.12%	5.40%	1.08%	0.22%	—
Ballymena United	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.24%	50.62%	18.61%	5.63%	1.69%	0.21%
Portadown	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.79%	18.53%	40.04%	21.48%	10.89%	4.27%
Carrick Rangers	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.39%	3.12%	13.66%	26.39%	28.90%	27.54%
Ballinamallard United	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.24%	2.98%	11.31%	23.64%	28.92%	32.91%
Warrenpoint Town	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.16%	2.63%	10.98%	21.78%	29.38%	35.07%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Coleraine	100%	—	—
Crusaders	100%	—	—
Glenavon	100%	—	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Portadown	95.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Ballymena United	84.00%	10.00%	6.00%
Dungannon Swifts	83.00%	7.00%	10.00%
Ballinamallard United	57.00%	21.00%	22.00%
Warrenpoint Town	43.00%	35.00%	22.00%
Carrick Rangers	38.00%	24.00%	38.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Coleraine	100%	—	—
Crusaders	100%	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	99.78%	0.22%	—
Glenavon	100%	—	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Ballymena United	98.10%	1.69%	0.21%
Portadown	84.84%	10.89%	4.27%
Carrick Rangers	43.56%	28.90%	27.54%
Ballinamallard United	38.17%	28.92%	32.91%
Warrenpoint Town	35.55%	29.38%	35.07%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2015-08-08	Ballinamallard United	L 0-1	42.5	1141	1124	44.86%	19.96%	35.18%	+0.18	-10.5	0
2015-08-08	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 1-0	42.5	1124	1141	35.18%	19.96%	44.86%	-0.18	+10.5	3
2015-08-08	Ballymena United	W 4-0	29.6	1293	1174	57.60%	19.29%	23.10%	+0.69	+21.5	3
2015-08-08	@ Linfield	L 0-4	29.6	1174	1293	23.10%	19.29%	57.60%	-0.69	-21.5	0
2015-08-08	Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	50.1	1150	1069	53.19%	19.63%	27.18%	+0.50	-11.5	0
2015-08-08	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	50.1	1069	1150	27.18%	19.63%	53.19%	-0.50	+11.5	3
2015-08-08	Cliftonville	L 0-1	40.8	1273	1316	36.42%	19.98%	43.60%	-0.13	-8.9	0
2015-08-08	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	40.8	1316	1273	43.60%	19.98%	36.42%	+0.13	+8.9	3
2015-08-08	Glentoran	W 1-0	43.3	1198	1260	33.63%	19.92%	46.45%	-0.23	+10.8	3
2015-08-08	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	43.3	1260	1198	46.45%	19.92%	33.63%	+0.23	-10.8	0
2015-08-08	Portadown	L 1-2	51.5	1352	1257	54.89%	19.52%	25.60%	+0.57	-11.8	0
2015-08-08	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	51.5	1257	1352	25.60%	19.52%	54.89%	-0.57	+11.8	3
2015-08-12	Coleraine	W 4-0	30.0	1324	1208	57.29%	19.32%	23.39%	+0.68	+21.8	6
2015-08-12	@ Cliftonville	L 0-4	30.0	1208	1324	23.39%	19.32%	57.29%	-0.68	-21.8	3
2015-08-12	Crusaders	D 2-2	60.9	1250	1340	30.03%	19.79%	50.18%	-0.38	+0.8	1
2015-08-12	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	60.9	1340	1250	50.18%	19.79%	30.03%	+0.38	-0.8	1
2015-08-12	Dungannon Swifts	D 0-0	50.3	1134	1139	41.73%	20.00%	38.27%	+0.06	-0.2	4
2015-08-12	@ Ballinamallard United	D 0-0	50.3	1139	1134	38.27%	20.00%	41.73%	-0.06	+0.2	1
2015-08-12	Glenavon	L 1-7	34.2	1153	1265	27.51%	19.65%	52.83%	-0.49	-30.3	0
2015-08-12	@ Ballymena United	W 7-1	34.2	1265	1153	52.83%	19.65%	27.51%	+0.49	+30.3	3
2015-08-12	Linfield	L 0-3	27.7	1081	1315	15.95%	18.24%	65.81%	-1.11	-11.7	3
2015-08-12	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	27.7	1315	1081	65.81%	18.24%	15.95%	+1.11	+11.7	6
2015-08-12	Warrenpoint Town	W 2-1	40.5	1269	1131	59.71%	19.08%	21.21%	+0.79	+5.2	6
2015-08-12	@ Portadown	L 1-2	40.5	1131	1269	21.21%	19.08%	59.71%	-0.79	-5.2	0
2015-08-15	Ballinamallard United	W 5-0	27.5	1340	1134	66.28%	18.16%	15.56%	+1.14	+18.3	4
2015-08-15	@ Crusaders	L 0-5	27.5	1134	1340	15.56%	18.16%	66.28%	-1.14	-18.4	4
2015-08-15	Cliftonville	L 0-1	39.8	1274	1346	32.40%	19.89%	47.71%	-0.28	-8.1	6
2015-08-15	@ Portadown	W 1-0	39.8	1346	1274	47.71%	19.89%	32.40%	+0.28	+8.1	9
2015-08-15	Coleraine	L 0-2	35.7	1122	1187	33.42%	19.92%	46.66%	-0.24	-15.6	0
2015-08-15	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	35.7	1187	1122	46.66%	19.92%	33.42%	+0.24	+15.6	6
2015-08-15	Dungannon Swifts	W 5-1	31.6	1326	1139	64.61%	18.44%	16.95%	+1.04	+13.5	9
2015-08-15	@ Linfield	L 1-5	31.6	1139	1326	16.95%	18.44%	64.61%	-1.04	-13.5	1
2015-08-15	Glenavon	L 0-3	29.6	1125	1295	21.42%	19.11%	59.47%	-0.78	-15.4	0
2015-08-15	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 3-0	29.6	1295	1125	59.47%	19.11%	21.42%	+0.78	+15.4	6
2015-08-15	Glentoran	D 1-1	54.8	1069	1250	20.29%	18.97%	60.74%	-0.84	+2.2	4
2015-08-15	@ Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.8	1250	1069	60.74%	18.97%	20.29%	+0.84	-2.2	2
2015-08-22	Ballymena United	W 2-0	36.1	1125	1107	45.01%	19.96%	35.03%	+0.18	+16.2	4
2015-08-22	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	36.1	1107	1125	35.03%	19.96%	45.01%	-0.18	-16.2	0
2015-08-22	Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	31.6	1354	1071	72.40%	16.82%	10.78%	+1.53	+2.9	12
2015-08-22	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	31.6	1071	1354	10.78%	16.82%	72.40%	-1.53	-2.9	4
2015-08-22	Crusaders	L 1-2	46.4	1310	1358	35.65%	19.97%	44.38%	-0.16	-8.2	6
2015-08-22	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	46.4	1358	1310	44.38%	19.97%	35.65%	+0.16	+8.2	7
2015-08-22	Linfield	L 1-3	38.9	1202	1340	24.67%	19.44%	55.89%	-0.62	-10.4	6
2015-08-22	@ Coleraine	W 3-1	38.9	1340	1202	55.89%	19.44%	24.67%	+0.62	+10.4	12
2015-08-22	Portadown	L 1-2	41.1	1116	1266	23.30%	19.31%	57.39%	-0.68	-5.7	4
2015-08-22	@ Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	41.1	1266	1116	57.39%	19.31%	23.30%	+0.68	+5.7	9
2015-08-22	Warrenpoint Town	W 2-1	40.4	1248	1110	59.70%	19.08%	21.22%	+0.79	+5.2	5
2015-08-22	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	40.4	1110	1248	21.22%	19.08%	59.70%	-0.79	-5.2	0
2015-08-28	Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	42.3	1192	1110	53.28%	19.62%	27.09%	+0.50	+6.5	9
2015-08-28	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	42.3	1110	1192	27.09%	19.62%	53.28%	-0.50	-6.5	4
2015-08-28	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.5	1090	1068	45.51%	19.95%	34.54%	+0.20	-0.5	1
2015-08-28	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	54.5	1068	1090	34.54%	19.95%	45.51%	-0.20	+0.6	5
2015-08-28	Glentoran	D 0-0	51.0	1302	1253	49.05%	19.84%	31.11%	+0.33	-1.0	7
2015-08-28	@ Glenavon	D 0-0	51.0	1253	1302	31.11%	19.84%	49.05%	-0.33	+1.0	6
2015-08-29	Dungannon Swifts	W 4-0	26.7	1366	1142	67.89%	17.86%	14.24%	+1.23	+13.7	10
2015-08-29	@ Crusaders	L 0-4	26.7	1142	1366	14.24%	17.86%	67.89%	-1.23	-13.7	4
2015-08-29	Portadown	W 3-0	32.5	1350	1272	52.83%	19.65%	27.52%	+0.49	+19.2	15
2015-08-29	@ Linfield	L 0-3	32.5	1272	1350	27.52%	19.65%	52.83%	-0.49	-19.2	9
2015-08-30	Cliftonville	D 2-2	60.9	1105	1357	14.64%	17.95%	67.41%	-1.20	+2.2	1
2015-08-30	@ Warrenpoint Town	D 2-2	60.9	1357	1105	67.41%	17.95%	14.64%	+1.20	-2.2	13
2015-09-05	Ballymena United	L 1-3	49.6	1254	1090	62.42%	18.76%	18.82%	+0.93	-23.1	6
2015-09-05	@ Glentoran	W 3-1	49.6	1090	1254	18.82%	18.76%	62.42%	-0.93	+23.1	4
2015-09-05	Coleraine	L 0-3	33.1	1128	1198	32.64%	19.89%	47.47%	-0.27	-22.2	4
2015-09-05	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-0	33.1	1198	1128	47.47%	19.89%	32.64%	+0.27	+22.2	12
2015-09-05	Crusaders	L 0-1	43.1	1355	1380	38.83%	20.00%	41.16%	-0.04	-9.4	13
2015-09-05	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	43.1	1380	1355	41.16%	20.00%	38.83%	+0.04	+9.4	13
2015-09-05	Linfield	L 0-1	32.8	1103	1369	13.73%	17.73%	68.54%	-1.27	-3.7	4
2015-09-05	@ Ballinamallard United	W 1-0	32.8	1369	1103	68.54%	17.73%	13.73%	+1.27	+3.7	18
2015-09-05	Warrenpoint Town	L 1-2	45.3	1069	1107	36.95%	19.99%	43.06%	-0.11	-8.5	5
2015-09-05	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	45.3	1107	1069	43.06%	19.99%	36.95%	+0.11	+8.5	4
2015-09-12	Carrick Rangers	L 1-3	45.4	1100	1060	47.82%	19.88%	32.30%	+0.29	-18.1	4
2015-09-12	@ Ballinamallard United	W 3-1	45.4	1060	1100	32.30%	19.88%	47.82%	-0.29	+18.1	8
2015-09-12	Cliftonville	W 6-1	45.5	1113	1346	16.05%	18.27%	65.68%	-1.10	+54.3	7
2015-09-12	@ Ballymena United	L 1-6	45.5	1346	1113	65.68%	18.27%	16.05%	+1.10	-54.3	13
2015-09-12	Coleraine	W 3-0	31.8	1301	1221	53.09%	19.64%	27.27%	+0.50	+19.1	10
2015-09-12	@ Glenavon	L 0-3	31.8	1221	1301	27.27%	19.64%	53.09%	-0.50	-19.1	12
2015-09-12	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	38.7	1115	1106	43.75%	19.98%	36.27%	+0.14	-19.4	4
2015-09-12	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 2-0	38.7	1106	1115	36.27%	19.98%	43.75%	-0.14	+19.4	7
2015-09-12	Linfield	W 3-0	36.7	1389	1373	44.67%	19.96%	35.36%	+0.17	+23.7	16
2015-09-12	@ Crusaders	L 0-3	36.7	1373	1389	35.36%	19.96%	44.67%	-0.17	-23.7	18
2015-09-12	Portadown	W 1-0	41.6	1231	1253	39.35%	20.01%	40.64%	-0.02	+9.7	9
2015-09-12	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	41.6	1253	1231	40.64%	20.01%	39.35%	+0.02	-9.7	9
2015-09-19	Ballinamallard United	D 1-1	54.6	1167	1081	53.75%	19.59%	26.65%	+0.52	-1.4	8
2015-09-19	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	54.6	1081	1167	26.65%	19.59%	53.75%	-0.52	+1.4	5
2015-09-19	Crusaders	D 1-1	55.9	1202	1413	17.69%	18.57%	63.73%	-0.99	+2.5	13
2015-09-19	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	55.9	1413	1202	63.73%	18.57%	17.69%	+0.99	-2.5	17
2015-09-19	Dungannon Swifts	D 3-3	64.4	1243	1125	57.46%	19.31%	23.23%	+0.69	-1.1	10
2015-09-19	@ Portadown	D 3-3	64.4	1125	1243	23.23%	19.31%	57.46%	-0.69	+1.1	8
2015-09-19	Glenavon	D 2-2	60.7	1078	1320	15.38%	18.12%	66.49%	-1.15	+2.1	9
2015-09-19	@ Carrick Rangers	D 2-2	60.7	1320	1078	66.49%	18.12%	15.38%	+1.15	-2.1	11
2015-09-19	Glentoran	W 1-0	38.8	1291	1241	49.28%	19.83%	30.89%	+0.34	+7.7	16
2015-09-19	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	38.8	1241	1291	30.89%	19.83%	49.28%	-0.34	-7.8	9
2015-09-19	Warrenpoint Town	W 5-1	29.9	1349	1096	70.19%	17.37%	12.44%	+1.38	+10.0	21
2015-09-19	@ Linfield	L 1-5	29.9	1096	1349	12.44%	17.37%	70.19%	-1.38	-10.0	4
2015-09-22	Glenavon	D 2-2	60.7	1242	1318	31.87%	19.87%	48.26%	-0.30	+0.6	11
2015-09-22	@ Portadown	D 2-2	60.7	1318	1242	48.26%	19.87%	31.87%	+0.30	-0.6	12
2015-09-26	Ballymena United	L 1-2	43.6	1086	1166	31.42%	19.85%	48.73%	-0.32	-7.4	4
2015-09-26	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 2-1	43.6	1166	1086	48.73%	19.85%	31.42%	+0.32	+7.4	11
2015-09-26	Carrick Rangers	W 5-0	24.8	1411	1080	75.49%	15.90%	8.61%	+1.77	+10.1	20
2015-09-26	@ Crusaders	L 0-5	24.8	1080	1411	8.61%	15.90%	75.49%	-1.77	-10.1	9
2015-09-26	Cliftonville	L 0-2	30.5	1083	1299	17.31%	18.51%	64.18%	-1.02	-8.7	5
2015-09-26	@ Ballinamallard United	W 2-0	30.5	1299	1083	64.18%	18.51%	17.31%	+1.02	+8.7	19
2015-09-26	Coleraine	L 1-2	48.7	1242	1204	47.67%	19.89%	32.44%	+0.28	-10.4	11
2015-09-26	@ Portadown	W 2-1	48.7	1204	1242	32.44%	19.89%	47.67%	-0.28	+10.5	16
2015-09-26	Glenavon	W 4-3	53.4	1359	1317	48.15%	19.87%	31.98%	+0.30	+7.0	24
2015-09-26	@ Linfield	L 3-4	53.4	1317	1359	31.98%	19.87%	48.15%	-0.30	-7.0	12
2015-09-26	Glentoran	L 2-4	43.7	1126	1233	28.11%	19.69%	52.20%	-0.46	-10.4	8
2015-09-26	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 4-2	43.7	1233	1126	52.20%	19.69%	28.11%	+0.46	+10.5	12
2015-10-03	Ballinamallard United	L 0-2	44.1	1244	1074	62.91%	18.69%	18.40%	+0.95	-26.9	12
2015-10-03	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	44.1	1074	1244	18.40%	18.69%	62.91%	-0.95	+26.9	8
2015-10-03	Crusaders	L 2-4	40.0	1173	1421	14.99%	18.04%	66.97%	-1.18	-5.9	11
2015-10-03	@ Ballymena United	W 4-2	40.0	1421	1173	66.97%	18.04%	14.99%	+1.18	+5.9	23
2015-10-03	Dungannon Swifts	W 3-1	35.7	1310	1116	65.27%	18.33%	16.39%	+1.08	+7.1	15
2015-10-03	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	35.7	1116	1310	16.39%	18.33%	65.27%	-1.08	-7.2	8
2015-10-03	Linfield	D 3-3	65.6	1308	1366	34.22%	19.94%	45.84%	-0.21	+0.4	20
2015-10-03	@ Cliftonville	D 3-3	65.6	1366	1308	45.84%	19.94%	34.22%	+0.21	-0.4	25
2015-10-03	Portadown	L 0-1	35.5	1070	1232	22.19%	19.20%	58.61%	-0.74	-5.8	9
2015-10-03	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	35.5	1232	1070	58.61%	19.20%	22.19%	+0.74	+5.8	14
2015-10-03	Warrenpoint Town	W 2-0	31.8	1214	1079	59.46%	19.11%	21.43%	+0.78	+10.6	19
2015-10-03	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	31.8	1079	1214	21.43%	19.11%	59.46%	-0.78	-10.6	4
2015-10-07	Glenavon	L 0-1	34.0	1101	1318	17.30%	18.50%	64.20%	-1.02	-4.6	8
2015-10-07	@ Ballinamallard United	W 1-0	34.0	1318	1101	64.20%	18.50%	17.30%	+1.02	+4.6	18
2015-10-10	Ballymena United	W 3-2	47.9	1238	1167	51.82%	19.71%	28.47%	+0.44	+6.5	17
2015-10-10	@ Portadown	L 2-3	47.9	1167	1238	28.47%	19.71%	51.82%	-0.44	-6.5	11
2015-10-10	Cliftonville	L 0-1	34.5	1109	1308	18.70%	18.74%	62.56%	-0.93	-5.0	8
2015-10-10	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	34.5	1308	1109	62.56%	18.74%	18.70%	+0.93	+5.0	23
2015-10-10	Coleraine	L 1-2	40.7	1065	1225	22.29%	19.21%	58.50%	-0.73	-5.5	9
2015-10-10	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	40.7	1225	1065	58.50%	19.21%	22.29%	+0.73	+5.5	22
2015-10-10	Glentoran	D 1-1	55.6	1366	1217	60.86%	18.95%	20.19%	+0.85	-2.2	26
2015-10-10	@ Linfield	D 1-1	55.6	1217	1366	20.19%	18.95%	60.86%	-0.85	+2.2	13
2015-10-10	Warrenpoint Town	W 1-0	30.3	1427	1068	77.18%	15.31%	7.50%	+1.92	+2.0	26
2015-10-10	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	30.3	1068	1427	7.50%	15.31%	77.18%	-1.92	-2.0	4
2015-10-17	Ballymena United	W 3-1	36.8	1322	1161	62.09%	18.80%	19.11%	+0.91	+8.3	21
2015-10-17	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	36.8	1161	1322	19.11%	18.80%	62.09%	-0.91	-8.3	11
2015-10-17	Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	31.0	1219	1059	61.96%	18.82%	19.22%	+0.90	+9.6	16
2015-10-17	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	31.0	1059	1219	19.22%	18.82%	61.96%	-0.90	-9.6	9
2015-10-17	Crusaders	D 1-1	56.0	1097	1428	10.03%	16.53%	73.44%	-1.61	+3.6	9
2015-10-17	@ Ballinamallard United	D 1-1	56.0	1428	1097	73.44%	16.53%	10.03%	+1.61	-3.6	27
2015-10-17	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	35.6	1231	1104	58.48%	19.21%	22.31%	+0.73	+5.8	25
2015-10-17	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	35.6	1104	1231	22.31%	19.21%	58.48%	-0.73	-5.8	8
2015-10-17	Linfield	L 0-3	26.2	1066	1364	11.82%	17.18%	71.00%	-1.43	-8.7	4
2015-10-17	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 3-0	26.2	1364	1066	71.00%	17.18%	11.82%	+1.43	+8.7	29
2015-10-17	Portadown	W 3-0	32.4	1313	1244	51.67%	19.72%	28.62%	+0.44	+19.9	26
2015-10-17	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	32.4	1244	1313	28.62%	19.72%	51.67%	-0.44	-19.9	17
2015-10-24	Ballinamallard United	L 0-3	40.6	1224	1100	58.20%	19.24%	22.56%	+0.72	-36.3	17
2015-10-24	@ Portadown	W 3-0	40.6	1100	1224	22.56%	19.24%	58.20%	-0.72	+36.3	12
2015-10-24	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	55.9	1372	1049	75.04%	16.04%	8.91%	+1.73	-3.7	30
2015-10-24	@ Linfield	D 1-1	55.9	1049	1372	8.91%	16.04%	75.04%	-1.73	+3.7	10
2015-10-24	Cliftonville	D 0-0	51.1	1236	1333	29.33%	19.76%	50.91%	-0.41	+1.2	26
2015-10-24	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	51.1	1333	1236	50.91%	19.76%	29.33%	+0.41	-1.2	27
2015-10-24	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	38.1	1153	1098	49.84%	19.81%	30.35%	+0.37	+7.6	14
2015-10-24	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	38.1	1098	1153	30.35%	19.81%	49.84%	-0.37	-7.6	8
2015-10-24	Glenavon	W 1-0	39.3	1425	1330	54.79%	19.52%	25.69%	+0.57	+6.6	30
2015-10-24	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	39.3	1330	1425	25.69%	19.52%	54.79%	-0.57	-6.6	21
2015-10-24	Glentoran	L 0-1	35.2	1057	1229	21.26%	19.09%	59.65%	-0.79	-5.6	4
2015-10-24	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 1-0	35.2	1229	1057	59.65%	19.09%	21.26%	+0.79	+5.6	19
2015-10-30	Warrenpoint Town	W 3-0	31.2	1136	1052	53.59%	19.60%	26.80%	+0.52	+18.8	15
2015-10-30	@ Ballinamallard United	L 0-3	31.2	1052	1136	26.80%	19.60%	53.59%	-0.52	-18.8	4
2015-10-31	Ballymena United	D 2-2	60.1	1053	1160	28.07%	19.69%	52.24%	-0.46	+0.9	11
2015-10-31	@ Carrick Rangers	D 2-2	60.1	1160	1053	52.24%	19.69%	28.07%	+0.46	-0.9	15
2015-10-31	Coleraine	D 1-1	54.8	1234	1238	41.89%	20.00%	38.11%	+0.07	-0.2	20
2015-10-31	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	54.8	1238	1234	38.11%	20.00%	41.89%	-0.07	+0.2	27
2015-10-31	Crusaders	L 1-3	36.1	1188	1432	15.25%	18.10%	66.65%	-1.16	-6.7	17
2015-10-31	@ Portadown	W 3-1	36.1	1432	1188	66.65%	18.10%	15.25%	+1.16	+6.7	33
2015-10-31	Glenavon	D 1-1	55.8	1332	1324	43.51%	19.98%	36.50%	+0.13	-0.4	28
2015-10-31	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.8	1324	1332	36.50%	19.98%	43.51%	-0.13	+0.4	22
2015-10-31	Linfield	L 0-1	32.5	1090	1369	12.96%	17.52%	69.52%	-1.33	-3.5	8
2015-10-31	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	32.5	1369	1090	69.52%	17.52%	12.96%	+1.33	+3.5	33
2015-11-06	Warrenpoint Town	W 2-1	36.3	1331	1033	73.44%	16.53%	10.03%	+1.61	+2.5	31
2015-11-06	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	36.3	1033	1331	10.03%	16.53%	73.44%	-1.61	-2.5	4
2015-11-07	Ballinamallard United	W 5-1	32.2	1324	1155	62.87%	18.70%	18.44%	+0.95	+14.6	25
2015-11-07	@ Glenavon	L 1-5	32.2	1155	1324	18.44%	18.70%	62.87%	-0.95	-14.6	15
2015-11-07	Crusaders	L 0-1	42.8	1372	1438	33.19%	19.91%	46.90%	-0.25	-8.2	33
2015-11-07	@ Linfield	W 1-0	42.8	1438	1372	46.90%	19.91%	33.19%	+0.25	+8.2	36
2015-11-07	Glentoran	L 0-1	38.8	1159	1234	32.10%	19.88%	48.02%	-0.29	-8.0	15
2015-11-07	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	38.8	1234	1159	48.02%	19.88%	32.10%	+0.29	+8.0	23
2015-11-07	Portadown	W 4-0	31.8	1238	1181	50.08%	19.79%	30.13%	+0.37	+27.1	30
2015-11-07	@ Coleraine	L 0-4	31.8	1181	1238	30.13%	19.79%	50.08%	-0.37	-27.1	17
2015-11-14	Ballymena United	L 0-1	41.4	1141	1151	40.85%	20.01%	39.15%	+0.03	-9.7	15
2015-11-14	@ Ballinamallard United	W 1-0	41.4	1151	1141	39.15%	20.01%	40.85%	-0.03	+9.7	18
2015-11-14	Carrick Rangers	W 3-2	46.7	1154	1054	55.44%	19.48%	25.08%	+0.60	+5.8	20
2015-11-14	@ Portadown	L 2-3	46.7	1054	1154	25.08%	19.48%	55.44%	-0.60	-5.8	11
2015-11-14	Cliftonville	L 1-2	50.0	1364	1334	46.54%	19.92%	33.54%	+0.24	-10.2	33
2015-11-14	@ Linfield	W 2-1	50.0	1334	1364	33.54%	19.92%	46.54%	-0.24	+10.2	34
2015-11-14	Coleraine	L 0-4	26.9	1031	1265	15.91%	18.24%	65.85%	-1.11	-15.2	4
2015-11-14	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 4-0	26.9	1265	1031	65.85%	18.24%	15.91%	+1.11	+15.2	33
2015-11-14	Glenavon	L 1-2	38.2	1087	1339	14.67%	17.96%	67.37%	-1.20	-3.7	8
2015-11-14	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	38.2	1339	1087	67.37%	17.96%	14.67%	+1.20	+3.7	28
2015-11-14	Glentoran	W 3-0	29.1	1446	1242	66.17%	18.18%	15.65%	+1.13	+11.5	39
2015-11-14	@ Crusaders	L 0-3	29.1	1242	1446	15.65%	18.18%	66.17%	-1.13	-11.5	23
2015-11-21	Ballinamallard United	W 3-1	35.4	1344	1131	66.94%	18.04%	15.01%	+1.17	+6.6	37
2015-11-21	@ Cliftonville	L 1-3	35.4	1131	1344	15.01%	18.04%	66.94%	-1.17	-6.6	15
2015-11-21	Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	37.7	1280	1048	68.49%	17.74%	13.77%	+1.27	+3.5	36
2015-11-21	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	37.7	1048	1280	13.77%	17.74%	68.49%	-1.27	-3.5	11
2015-11-21	Crusaders	L 1-3	31.5	1015	1458	5.85%	14.24%	79.91%	-2.17	-2.5	4
2015-11-21	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 3-1	31.5	1458	1015	79.91%	14.24%	5.85%	+2.17	+2.5	42
2015-11-21	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	54.8	1230	1083	60.68%	18.97%	20.35%	+0.84	-2.2	24
2015-11-21	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	54.8	1083	1230	20.35%	18.97%	60.68%	-0.84	+2.2	9
2015-11-21	Linfield	W 3-2	52.9	1342	1354	40.81%	20.01%	39.19%	+0.03	+8.4	31
2015-11-21	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	52.9	1354	1342	39.19%	20.01%	40.81%	-0.03	-8.4	33
2015-11-21	Portadown	D 1-1	54.5	1161	1160	42.57%	19.99%	37.44%	+0.09	-0.2	19
2015-11-21	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	54.5	1160	1161	37.44%	19.99%	42.57%	-0.09	+0.2	21
2015-11-27	Coleraine	L 1-2	40.9	1124	1284	22.40%	19.22%	58.38%	-0.73	-5.5	15
2015-11-27	@ Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	40.9	1284	1124	58.38%	19.22%	22.40%	+0.73	+5.5	39
2015-11-28	Ballymena United	W 3-2	42.3	1460	1161	73.51%	16.51%	9.98%	+1.61	+2.4	45
2015-11-28	@ Crusaders	L 2-3	42.3	1161	1460	9.98%	16.51%	73.51%	-1.61	-2.4	19
2015-11-28	Glenavon	W 2-0	42.5	1228	1351	26.29%	19.57%	54.14%	-0.54	+23.4	27
2015-11-28	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	42.5	1351	1228	54.14%	19.57%	26.29%	+0.54	-23.4	31
2015-11-28	Linfield	W 2-0	44.0	1160	1345	19.97%	18.92%	61.11%	-0.86	+26.2	24
2015-11-28	@ Portadown	L 0-2	44.0	1345	1160	61.11%	18.92%	19.97%	+0.86	-26.2	33
2015-11-28	Warrenpoint Town	W 5-1	35.1	1085	1013	52.11%	19.69%	28.20%	+0.46	+21.4	12
2015-11-28	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-5	35.1	1013	1085	28.20%	19.69%	52.11%	-0.46	-21.4	4
2015-12-04	Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	28.0	1328	1045	72.36%	16.83%	10.82%	+1.53	+5.5	34
2015-12-04	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	28.0	1045	1328	10.82%	16.83%	72.36%	-1.53	-5.5	11
2015-12-05	Ballymena United	W 4-2	40.1	1351	1159	65.07%	18.37%	16.57%	+1.07	+6.5	40
2015-12-05	@ Cliftonville	L 2-4	40.1	1159	1351	16.57%	18.37%	65.07%	-1.07	-6.5	19
2015-12-05	Coleraine	W 1-0	40.1	1319	1289	46.53%	19.92%	33.55%	+0.24	+8.3	36
2015-12-05	@ Linfield	L 0-1	40.1	1289	1319	33.55%	19.92%	46.53%	-0.24	-8.3	39
2015-12-05	Crusaders	L 1-2	36.4	1107	1463	8.93%	16.05%	75.02%	-1.73	-2.2	12
2015-12-05	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	36.4	1463	1107	75.02%	16.05%	8.93%	+1.73	+2.2	48
2015-12-05	Glentoran	L 2-4	42.7	1119	1252	25.15%	19.48%	55.37%	-0.59	-9.5	15
2015-12-05	@ Ballinamallard United	W 4-2	42.7	1252	1119	55.37%	19.48%	25.15%	+0.59	+9.5	30
2015-12-12	Ballinamallard United	D 1-1	55.3	1327	1109	67.34%	17.97%	14.69%	+1.20	-2.9	37
2015-12-12	@ Linfield	D 1-1	55.3	1109	1327	14.69%	17.97%	67.34%	-1.20	+2.9	16
2015-12-12	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	32.3	1357	1104	70.15%	17.38%	12.47%	+1.38	+3.3	43
2015-12-12	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	32.3	1104	1357	12.47%	17.38%	70.15%	-1.38	-3.4	12
2015-12-12	Glenavon	L 0-2	37.1	1281	1333	35.06%	19.96%	44.98%	-0.18	-16.2	39
2015-12-12	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	37.1	1333	1281	44.98%	19.96%	35.06%	+0.18	+16.2	37
2015-12-12	Warrenpoint Town	W 4-2	40.6	1152	991	62.04%	18.81%	19.15%	+0.91	+7.4	22
2015-12-12	@ Ballymena United	L 2-4	40.6	991	1152	19.15%	18.81%	62.04%	-0.91	-7.4	4
2015-12-14	Glentoran	W 5-3	51.8	1186	1261	32.06%	19.87%	48.06%	-0.30	+15.4	27
2015-12-14	@ Portadown	L 3-5	51.8	1261	1186	48.06%	19.87%	32.06%	+0.30	-15.4	30
2015-12-18	Coleraine	W 3-1	37.6	1465	1265	65.80%	18.25%	15.96%	+1.11	+7.0	51
2015-12-18	@ Crusaders	L 1-3	37.6	1265	1465	15.96%	18.25%	65.80%	-1.11	-7.0	39
2015-12-19	Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	49.7	1112	1039	52.14%	19.69%	28.17%	+0.46	-11.3	16
2015-12-19	@ Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	49.7	1039	1112	28.17%	19.69%	52.14%	-0.46	+11.3	14
2015-12-19	Cliftonville	W 2-0	42.4	1246	1361	27.18%	19.63%	53.19%	-0.50	+23.0	33
2015-12-19	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	42.4	1361	1246	53.19%	19.63%	27.18%	+0.50	-23.0	43
2015-12-19	Linfield	L 1-3	37.8	1159	1324	21.85%	19.16%	58.99%	-0.76	-9.3	22
2015-12-19	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	37.8	1324	1159	58.99%	19.16%	21.85%	+0.76	+9.3	40
2015-12-19	Portadown	W 3-1	46.5	1101	1202	28.85%	19.73%	51.42%	-0.43	+19.4	15
2015-12-19	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-3	46.5	1202	1101	51.42%	19.73%	28.85%	+0.43	-19.3	27
2015-12-19	Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	56.0	1349	984	77.57%	15.17%	7.26%	+1.95	-4.0	38
2015-12-19	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	56.0	984	1349	7.26%	15.17%	77.57%	-1.95	+4.0	5
2015-12-26	Ballymena United	W 2-1	41.5	1258	1150	56.32%	19.41%	24.27%	+0.63	+5.9	42
2015-12-26	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	41.5	1150	1258	24.27%	19.41%	56.32%	-0.63	-5.9	22
2015-12-26	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.4	988	1051	33.64%	19.92%	46.44%	-0.23	+0.6	6
2015-12-26	@ Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	54.4	1051	988	46.44%	19.92%	33.64%	+0.23	-0.7	15
2015-12-26	Cliftonville	D 2-2	64.0	1472	1338	59.31%	19.13%	21.56%	+0.77	-1.5	52
2015-12-26	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	64.0	1338	1472	21.56%	19.13%	59.31%	-0.77	+1.5	44
2015-12-26	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	54.5	1101	1120	39.59%	20.01%	40.40%	-0.01	+0.0	17
2015-12-26	@ Ballinamallard United	D 1-1	54.5	1120	1101	40.40%	20.01%	39.59%	+0.01	-0.0	16
2015-12-26	Linfield	L 1-2	45.1	1269	1334	33.34%	19.92%	46.74%	-0.25	-7.8	33
2015-12-26	@ Glentoran	W 2-1	45.1	1334	1269	46.74%	19.92%	33.34%	+0.25	+7.8	43
2015-12-26	Portadown	W 1-0	34.9	1345	1182	62.26%	18.78%	18.96%	+0.92	+5.0	41
2015-12-26	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	34.9	1182	1345	18.96%	18.78%	62.26%	-0.92	-5.0	27
2016-01-01	Ballinamallard United	W 1-0	34.5	1264	1101	62.25%	18.78%	18.97%	+0.92	+5.0	45
2016-01-01	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	34.5	1101	1264	18.97%	18.78%	62.25%	-0.92	-5.0	17
2016-01-01	Ballymena United	L 3-4	56.4	1177	1144	46.99%	19.91%	33.11%	+0.26	-9.6	27
2016-01-01	@ Portadown	W 4-3	56.4	1144	1177	33.11%	19.91%	46.99%	-0.26	+9.5	25
2016-01-01	Crusaders	W 2-0	45.8	1342	1470	25.59%	19.52%	54.89%	-0.57	+23.7	46
2016-01-01	@ Linfield	L 0-2	45.8	1470	1342	54.89%	19.52%	25.59%	+0.57	-23.7	52
2016-01-01	Glentoran	W 3-1	47.9	1120	1261	24.33%	19.41%	56.26%	-0.63	+21.0	19
2016-01-01	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-3	47.9	1261	1120	56.26%	19.41%	24.33%	+0.63	-21.0	33
2016-01-01	Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	55.9	1339	989	76.72%	15.48%	7.80%	+1.87	-3.9	45
2016-01-01	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.9	989	1339	7.80%	15.48%	76.72%	-1.87	+3.9	7
2016-01-12	Carrick Rangers	D 3-3	65.2	1335	1050	72.53%	16.78%	10.69%	+1.54	-2.2	46
2016-01-12	@ Cliftonville	D 3-3	65.2	1050	1335	10.69%	16.78%	72.53%	-1.54	+2.2	16
2016-01-16	Cliftonville	D 3-3	65.7	1350	1333	44.80%	19.96%	35.24%	+0.17	-0.3	42
2016-01-16	@ Glenavon	D 3-3	65.7	1333	1350	35.24%	19.96%	44.80%	-0.17	+0.3	47
2016-01-16	Coleraine	W 3-0	43.4	993	1269	13.09%	17.56%	69.36%	-1.32	+42.8	10
2016-01-16	@ Warrenpoint Town	L 0-3	43.4	1269	993	69.36%	17.56%	13.09%	+1.32	-42.8	45
2016-01-16	Glentoran	W 4-2	41.0	1447	1240	66.37%	18.15%	15.49%	+1.14	+6.0	55
2016-01-16	@ Crusaders	L 2-4	41.0	1240	1447	15.49%	18.15%	66.37%	-1.14	-6.0	33
2016-01-19	Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	36.4	1154	1052	55.62%	19.46%	24.92%	+0.60	+6.4	28
2016-01-19	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	36.4	1052	1154	24.92%	19.46%	55.62%	-0.60	-6.4	16
2016-01-19	Portadown	W 2-0	42.0	1035	1168	25.20%	19.48%	55.32%	-0.59	+23.9	13
2016-01-19	@ Warrenpoint Town	L 0-2	42.0	1168	1035	55.32%	19.48%	25.20%	+0.59	-23.9	27
2016-01-23	Ballinamallard United	W 2-0	29.1	1333	1096	68.95%	17.64%	13.41%	+1.30	+6.8	50
2016-01-23	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	29.1	1096	1333	13.41%	17.64%	68.95%	-1.30	-6.8	17
2016-01-23	Coleraine	W 2-1	52.1	1046	1226	20.42%	18.98%	60.59%	-0.83	+13.0	19
2016-01-23	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	52.1	1226	1046	60.59%	18.98%	20.42%	+0.83	-13.0	45
2016-01-23	Crusaders	L 0-1	32.4	1144	1453	11.20%	16.97%	71.83%	-1.49	-3.0	27
2016-01-23	@ Portadown	W 1-0	32.4	1453	1144	71.83%	16.97%	11.20%	+1.49	+3.0	58
2016-01-23	Glenavon	L 0-1	34.4	1141	1350	17.94%	18.61%	63.45%	-0.98	-4.8	19
2016-01-23	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	34.4	1350	1141	63.45%	18.61%	17.94%	+0.98	+4.8	45
2016-01-23	Linfield	L 0-4	28.2	1160	1365	18.23%	18.66%	63.11%	-0.96	-17.3	28
2016-01-23	@ Ballymena United	W 4-0	28.2	1365	1160	63.11%	18.66%	18.23%	+0.96	+17.3	49
2016-01-23	Warrenpoint Town	L 0-4	41.3	1234	1059	63.42%	18.62%	17.96%	+0.98	-51.5	33
2016-01-23	@ Glentoran	W 4-0	41.3	1059	1234	17.96%	18.62%	63.42%	-0.98	+51.5	16
2016-01-30	Ballymena United	W 4-2	48.8	1089	1143	34.83%	19.95%	45.21%	-0.19	+15.5	20
2016-01-30	@ Ballinamallard United	L 2-4	48.8	1143	1089	45.21%	19.95%	34.83%	+0.19	-15.5	28
2016-01-30	Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	27.3	1383	1059	75.10%	16.02%	8.87%	+1.74	+4.5	52
2016-01-30	@ Linfield	L 0-2	27.3	1059	1383	8.87%	16.02%	75.10%	-1.74	-4.5	19
2016-01-30	Crusaders	L 0-2	31.1	1213	1456	15.29%	18.10%	66.60%	-1.15	-7.7	45
2016-01-30	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	31.1	1456	1213	66.60%	18.10%	15.29%	+1.15	+7.7	61
2016-01-30	Portadown	W 1-0	33.7	1340	1141	65.69%	18.26%	16.04%	+1.10	+4.3	53
2016-01-30	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	33.7	1141	1340	16.04%	18.26%	65.69%	-1.10	-4.3	27
2016-02-02	Dungannon Swifts	W 6-0	27.3	1387	1137	69.97%	17.42%	12.61%	+1.36	+17.7	55
2016-02-02	@ Linfield	L 0-6	27.3	1137	1387	12.61%	17.42%	69.97%	-1.36	-17.7	19
2016-02-02	Glenavon	L 1-5	29.5	1054	1355	11.66%	17.12%	71.22%	-1.45	-9.3	19
2016-02-02	@ Carrick Rangers	W 5-1	29.5	1355	1054	71.22%	17.12%	11.66%	+1.45	+9.3	48
2016-02-11	Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	60.0	1045	1119	32.17%	19.88%	47.95%	-0.29	+0.6	20
2016-02-11	@ Carrick Rangers	D 2-2	60.0	1119	1045	47.95%	19.88%	32.17%	+0.29	-0.6	20
2016-02-12	Ballinamallard United	W 3-0	34.3	1111	1105	43.25%	19.99%	36.77%	+0.12	+24.5	19
2016-02-12	@ Warrenpoint Town	L 0-3	34.3	1105	1111	36.77%	19.99%	43.25%	-0.12	-24.5	20
2016-02-12	Coleraine	L 0-2	35.1	1127	1205	31.69%	19.86%	48.45%	-0.31	-14.9	28
2016-02-12	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	35.1	1205	1127	48.45%	19.86%	31.69%	+0.31	+14.9	48
2016-02-12	Glenavon	D 1-1	58.9	1464	1364	55.38%	19.48%	25.14%	+0.59	-1.6	62
2016-02-12	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	58.9	1364	1464	25.14%	19.48%	55.38%	-0.59	+1.6	49
2016-02-12	Linfield	W 2-1	54.7	1137	1405	13.60%	17.69%	68.71%	-1.28	+14.6	30
2016-02-12	@ Portadown	L 1-2	54.7	1405	1137	68.71%	17.69%	13.60%	+1.28	-14.6	55
2016-02-15	Glentoran	L 1-3	50.5	1366	1183	64.22%	18.50%	17.28%	+1.02	-23.8	49
2016-02-15	@ Glenavon	W 3-1	50.5	1183	1366	17.28%	18.50%	64.22%	-1.02	+23.8	36
2016-02-15	Portadown	W 1-0	43.3	1080	1151	32.52%	19.89%	47.59%	-0.28	+11.1	23
2016-02-15	@ Ballinamallard United	L 0-1	43.3	1151	1080	47.59%	19.89%	32.52%	+0.28	-11.1	30
2016-02-15	Warrenpoint Town	W 1-0	41.1	1118	1135	39.98%	20.01%	40.01%	+0.00	+9.6	23
2016-02-15	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	41.1	1135	1118	40.01%	20.01%	39.98%	+0.00	-9.6	19
2016-02-19	Warrenpoint Town	L 0-1	38.4	1046	1126	31.40%	19.85%	48.76%	-0.32	-7.9	20
2016-02-19	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	38.4	1126	1046	48.76%	19.85%	31.40%	+0.32	+7.9	22
2016-02-20	Ballinamallard United	W 2-0	35.4	1128	1091	47.46%	19.89%	32.64%	+0.27	+15.3	26
2016-02-20	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	35.4	1091	1128	32.64%	19.89%	47.46%	-0.27	-15.3	23
2016-02-20	Ballymena United	W 2-0	33.3	1206	1112	54.71%	19.53%	25.76%	+0.56	+12.5	39
2016-02-20	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	33.3	1112	1206	25.76%	19.53%	54.71%	-0.56	-12.5	28
2016-02-20	Cliftonville	W 1-0	39.6	1462	1344	57.46%	19.31%	23.24%	+0.69	+6.0	65
2016-02-20	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	39.6	1344	1462	23.24%	19.31%	57.46%	-0.69	-6.0	53
2016-02-20	Linfield	L 2-3	46.4	1220	1390	21.36%	19.10%	59.54%	-0.78	-5.0	48
2016-02-20	@ Coleraine	W 3-2	46.4	1390	1220	59.54%	19.10%	21.36%	+0.78	+5.0	58
2016-02-20	Portadown	W 4-1	32.9	1342	1140	65.92%	18.23%	15.86%	+1.12	+9.8	52
2016-02-20	@ Glenavon	L 1-4	32.9	1140	1342	15.86%	18.23%	65.92%	-1.12	-9.8	30
2016-02-27	Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.4	1130	1038	54.58%	19.54%	25.88%	+0.56	-1.7	31
2016-02-27	@ Portadown	D 0-0	50.4	1038	1130	25.88%	19.54%	54.58%	-0.56	+1.7	21
2016-02-27	Coleraine	L 1-3	48.9	1338	1215	58.11%	19.25%	22.65%	+0.72	-21.6	53
2016-02-27	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	48.9	1215	1338	22.65%	19.25%	58.11%	-0.72	+21.6	51
2016-02-27	Crusaders	D 1-1	56.4	1133	1468	9.90%	16.48%	73.62%	-1.62	+3.6	23
2016-02-27	@ Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	56.4	1468	1133	73.62%	16.48%	9.90%	+1.62	-3.6	66
2016-02-27	Dungannon Swifts	L 2-4	46.1	1100	1143	36.27%	19.98%	43.75%	-0.13	-12.9	28
2016-02-27	@ Ballymena United	W 4-2	46.1	1143	1100	43.75%	19.98%	36.27%	+0.13	+12.9	29
2016-02-27	Glenavon	D 1-1	57.1	1395	1352	48.36%	19.86%	31.78%	+0.31	-0.9	59
2016-02-27	@ Linfield	D 1-1	57.1	1352	1395	31.78%	19.86%	48.36%	-0.31	+0.8	53
2016-02-27	Glentoran	W 1-0	45.9	1076	1219	24.08%	19.39%	56.53%	-0.64	+12.9	26
2016-02-27	@ Ballinamallard United	L 0-1	45.9	1219	1076	56.53%	19.39%	24.08%	+0.64	-12.9	39
2016-03-01	Cliftonville	L 0-2	34.3	1206	1317	27.64%	19.66%	52.71%	-0.48	-13.3	39
2016-03-01	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	34.3	1317	1206	52.71%	19.66%	27.64%	+0.48	+13.3	56
2016-03-02	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	45.0	1039	1156	26.96%	19.62%	53.42%	-0.51	+12.3	24
2016-03-02	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-1	45.0	1156	1039	53.42%	19.62%	26.96%	+0.51	-12.3	29
2016-03-12	Ballinamallard United	D 1-1	54.4	1052	1089	37.12%	19.99%	42.89%	-0.10	+0.3	25
2016-03-12	@ Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.4	1089	1052	42.89%	19.99%	37.12%	+0.10	-0.3	27
2016-03-12	Ballymena United	D 0-0	52.4	1464	1087	78.25%	14.91%	6.84%	+2.01	-4.5	67
2016-03-12	@ Crusaders	D 0-0	52.4	1087	1464	6.84%	14.91%	78.25%	-2.01	+4.5	29
2016-03-12	Cliftonville	D 2-2	60.6	1144	1330	19.86%	18.91%	61.23%	-0.86	+1.7	30
2016-03-12	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	60.6	1330	1144	61.23%	18.91%	19.86%	+0.86	-1.7	57
2016-03-12	Coleraine	L 0-1	37.5	1129	1237	27.99%	19.68%	52.33%	-0.47	-7.1	31
2016-03-12	@ Portadown	W 1-0	37.5	1237	1129	52.33%	19.68%	27.99%	+0.47	+7.1	54
2016-03-12	Glenavon	L 1-3	36.2	1137	1353	17.37%	18.52%	64.11%	-1.01	-7.6	23
2016-03-12	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 3-1	36.2	1353	1137	64.11%	18.52%	17.37%	+1.01	+7.5	56
2016-03-12	Glentoran	W 3-0	28.3	1394	1193	65.92%	18.22%	15.85%	+1.12	+11.6	62
2016-03-12	@ Linfield	L 0-3	28.3	1193	1394	15.85%	18.22%	65.92%	-1.12	-11.6	39
2016-03-19	Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	37.0	1360	1088	71.57%	17.04%	11.40%	+1.47	+2.9	59
2016-03-19	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	37.0	1088	1360	11.40%	17.04%	71.57%	-1.47	-2.9	27
2016-03-19	Crusaders	L 0-4	23.6	1052	1460	6.94%	14.98%	78.09%	-2.00	-6.5	25
2016-03-19	@ Carrick Rangers	W 4-0	23.6	1460	1052	78.09%	14.98%	6.94%	+2.00	+6.5	70
2016-03-19	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	45.6	1244	1146	55.24%	19.49%	25.27%	+0.59	-12.6	54
2016-03-19	@ Coleraine	W 1-0	45.6	1146	1244	25.27%	19.49%	55.24%	-0.59	+12.6	33
2016-03-19	Linfield	L 0-2	37.4	1328	1406	31.71%	19.86%	48.43%	-0.31	-14.9	57
2016-03-19	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	37.4	1406	1328	48.43%	19.86%	31.71%	+0.31	+14.9	65
2016-03-19	Portadown	W 1-0	38.0	1181	1122	50.43%	19.78%	29.79%	+0.39	+7.5	42
2016-03-19	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	38.0	1122	1181	29.79%	19.78%	50.43%	-0.39	-7.5	31
2016-03-19	Warrenpoint Town	W 3-1	44.0	1092	1129	37.00%	19.99%	43.01%	-0.11	+16.6	32
2016-03-19	@ Ballymena United	L 1-3	44.0	1129	1092	43.01%	19.99%	37.00%	+0.11	-16.6	23
2016-03-22	Crusaders	W 4-3	64.8	1045	1466	6.51%	14.70%	78.79%	-2.06	+15.2	28
2016-03-22	@ Carrick Rangers	L 3-4	64.8	1466	1045	78.79%	14.70%	6.51%	+2.06	-15.2	70
2016-03-24	Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	35.9	1421	1086	75.81%	15.79%	8.39%	+1.80	+2.1	68
2016-03-24	@ Linfield	L 1-2	35.9	1086	1421	8.39%	15.79%	75.81%	-1.80	-2.1	27
2016-03-26	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-0	28.6	1451	1158	73.08%	16.63%	10.29%	+1.58	+5.2	73
2016-03-26	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	28.6	1158	1451	10.29%	16.63%	73.08%	-1.58	-5.2	33
2016-03-26	Glenavon	L 0-1	37.4	1231	1363	25.27%	19.49%	55.24%	-0.59	-6.5	54
2016-03-26	@ Coleraine	W 1-0	37.4	1363	1231	55.24%	19.49%	25.27%	+0.59	+6.5	62
2016-03-26	Glentoran	L 1-2	41.8	1061	1188	25.71%	19.53%	54.76%	-0.57	-6.2	28
2016-03-26	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	41.8	1188	1061	54.76%	19.53%	25.71%	+0.57	+6.2	45
2016-03-26	Warrenpoint Town	L 1-3	43.9	1114	1113	42.57%	19.99%	37.44%	+0.09	-16.5	31
2016-03-26	@ Portadown	W 3-1	43.9	1113	1114	37.44%	19.99%	42.57%	-0.09	+16.5	26
2016-03-29	Coleraine	W 1-0	41.8	1195	1225	38.13%	20.00%	41.87%	-0.07	+9.9	48
2016-03-29	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	41.8	1225	1195	41.87%	20.00%	38.13%	+0.07	-9.9	54
2016-03-29	Crusaders	L 0-1	30.8	1083	1456	8.23%	15.71%	76.06%	-1.82	-2.2	27
2016-03-29	@ Ballinamallard United	W 1-0	30.8	1456	1083	76.06%	15.71%	8.23%	+1.82	+2.2	76
2016-03-29	Linfield	L 2-6	32.1	1129	1423	12.04%	17.25%	70.71%	-1.41	-8.2	26
2016-03-29	@ Warrenpoint Town	W 6-2	32.1	1423	1129	70.71%	17.25%	12.04%	+1.41	+8.2	71
2016-03-29	Portadown	W 2-1	43.3	1153	1098	49.91%	19.80%	30.29%	+0.37	+7.2	36
2016-03-29	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-2	43.3	1098	1153	30.29%	19.80%	49.91%	-0.37	-7.2	31
2016-04-02	Cliftonville	D 2-2	60.6	1108	1313	18.21%	18.66%	63.13%	-0.96	+1.8	33
2016-04-02	@ Ballymena United	D 2-2	60.6	1313	1108	63.13%	18.66%	18.21%	+0.96	-1.8	58
2016-04-05	Ballymena United	D 1-1	55.6	1370	1110	70.67%	17.26%	12.07%	+1.41	-3.3	63
2016-04-05	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	55.6	1110	1370	12.07%	17.26%	70.67%	-1.41	+3.3	34
2016-04-05	Cliftonville	L 1-2	38.0	1054	1312	14.31%	17.88%	67.81%	-1.23	-3.6	28
2016-04-05	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	38.0	1312	1054	67.81%	17.88%	14.31%	+1.23	+3.6	61

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2016-04-09	Ballinamallard United	D 0-0	50.3	1090	1081	43.69%	19.98%	36.33%	+0.13	-0.4	1
2016-04-09	@ Portadown	D 0-0	50.3	1081	1090	36.33%	19.98%	43.69%	-0.13	+0.4	1
2016-04-09	Ballymena United	L 2-4	49.8	1160	1113	48.82%	19.85%	31.34%	+0.33	-16.5	0
2016-04-09	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 4-2	49.8	1113	1160	31.34%	19.85%	48.82%	-0.33	+16.5	3
2016-04-09	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.5	1121	1051	51.83%	19.71%	28.46%	+0.44	-1.2	1
2016-04-09	@ Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	54.5	1051	1121	28.46%	19.71%	51.83%	-0.44	+1.2	1
2016-04-09	Glenavon	W 3-1	46.2	1315	1366	35.21%	19.96%	44.83%	-0.17	+17.2	3
2016-04-09	@ Cliftonville	L 1-3	46.2	1366	1315	44.83%	19.96%	35.21%	+0.17	-17.2	0
2016-04-09	Glentoran	D 1-1	54.7	1215	1205	43.80%	19.98%	36.22%	+0.14	-0.4	1
2016-04-09	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	54.7	1205	1215	36.22%	19.98%	43.80%	-0.14	+0.4	1
2016-04-09	Linfield	W 2-0	41.8	1459	1431	46.21%	19.93%	33.86%	+0.23	+15.8	3
2016-04-09	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	41.8	1431	1459	33.86%	19.93%	46.21%	-0.23	-15.8	0
2016-04-16	Ballymena United	L 0-2	35.1	1052	1130	31.69%	19.86%	48.45%	-0.31	-14.9	1
2016-04-16	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	35.1	1130	1052	48.45%	19.86%	31.69%	+0.31	+14.9	6
2016-04-16	Coleraine	W 3-0	28.6	1415	1214	65.86%	18.23%	15.90%	+1.11	+11.7	3
2016-04-16	@ Linfield	L 0-3	28.6	1214	1415	15.90%	18.23%	65.86%	-1.11	-11.6	1
2016-04-16	Crusaders	L 0-1	40.9	1349	1474	25.99%	19.55%	54.46%	-0.55	-6.7	0
2016-04-16	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	40.9	1474	1349	54.46%	19.55%	25.99%	+0.55	+6.7	6
2016-04-16	Dungannon Swifts	L 1-2	44.7	1090	1144	34.86%	19.95%	45.18%	-0.19	-8.1	1
2016-04-16	@ Portadown	W 2-1	44.7	1144	1090	45.18%	19.95%	34.86%	+0.19	+8.1	3
2016-04-16	Glentoran	L 0-2	43.5	1332	1205	58.55%	19.20%	22.25%	+0.74	-25.2	3
2016-04-16	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	43.5	1205	1332	22.25%	19.20%	58.55%	-0.74	+25.2	4
2016-04-16	Warrenpoint Town	W 2-0	38.5	1082	1120	36.96%	19.99%	43.05%	-0.11	+19.2	4
2016-04-16	@ Ballinamallard United	L 0-2	38.5	1120	1082	43.05%	19.99%	36.96%	+0.11	-19.2	1
2016-04-19	Ballinamallard United	W 4-2	44.4	1152	1101	49.33%	19.83%	30.85%	+0.35	+11.3	6
2016-04-19	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 2-4	44.4	1101	1152	30.85%	19.83%	49.33%	-0.35	-11.3	4
2016-04-19	Ballymena United	W 4-1	41.5	1101	1145	36.17%	19.98%	43.85%	-0.14	+23.8	4
2016-04-19	@ Warrenpoint Town	L 1-4	41.5	1145	1101	43.85%	19.98%	36.17%	+0.14	-23.8	6
2016-04-19	Coleraine	W 3-0	29.9	1342	1203	59.88%	19.06%	21.05%	+0.80	+15.1	3
2016-04-19	@ Glenavon	L 0-3	29.9	1203	1342	21.05%	19.06%	59.88%	-0.80	-15.2	1
2016-04-19	Crusaders	L 1-3	40.5	1307	1481	21.01%	19.06%	59.94%	-0.80	-9.0	3
2016-04-19	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	40.5	1481	1307	59.94%	19.06%	21.01%	+0.80	+9.0	9
2016-04-19	Linfield	L 0-4	29.3	1230	1427	18.93%	18.77%	62.30%	-0.92	-17.9	4
2016-04-19	@ Glentoran	W 4-0	29.3	1427	1230	62.30%	18.77%	18.93%	+0.92	+17.9	6
2016-04-19	Portadown	L 1-2	45.0	1037	1082	36.04%	19.98%	43.99%	-0.14	-8.3	1
2016-04-19	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	45.0	1082	1037	43.99%	19.98%	36.04%	+0.14	+8.3	4
2016-04-23	Ballinamallard United	L 1-2	48.2	1121	1090	46.72%	19.92%	33.36%	+0.25	-10.3	6
2016-04-23	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	48.2	1090	1121	33.36%	19.92%	46.72%	-0.25	+10.3	7
2016-04-23	Carrick Rangers	L 1-3	48.6	1163	1029	59.29%	19.13%	21.58%	+0.77	-22.0	6
2016-04-23	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-1	48.6	1029	1163	21.58%	19.13%	59.29%	-0.77	+22.0	4
2016-04-23	Cliftonville	W 4-0	30.9	1445	1298	60.62%	18.98%	20.40%	+0.83	+19.2	9
2016-04-23	@ Linfield	L 0-4	30.9	1298	1445	20.40%	18.98%	60.62%	-0.83	-19.2	3
2016-04-23	Coleraine	W 1-0	32.5	1490	1188	73.72%	16.45%	9.83%	+1.63	+2.6	12
2016-04-23	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	32.5	1188	1490	9.83%	16.45%	73.72%	-1.63	-2.6	1
2016-04-23	Glenavon	L 0-1	36.7	1212	1358	23.83%	19.37%	56.80%	-0.66	-6.2	4
2016-04-23	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	36.7	1358	1212	56.80%	19.37%	23.83%	+0.66	+6.2	6
2016-04-23	Portadown	W 2-0	35.5	1125	1090	47.13%	19.90%	32.96%	+0.26	+15.4	7
2016-04-23	@ Warrenpoint Town	L 0-2	35.5	1090	1125	32.96%	19.90%	47.13%	-0.26	-15.4	4
2016-04-30	Ballinamallard United	W 2-1	47.5	1051	1100	35.48%	19.97%	44.56%	-0.16	+9.9	7
2016-04-30	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	47.5	1100	1051	44.56%	19.97%	35.48%	+0.16	-9.9	7
2016-04-30	Cliftonville	W 3-0	38.7	1185	1279	29.64%	19.77%	50.59%	-0.39	+32.0	4
2016-04-30	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	38.7	1279	1185	50.59%	19.77%	29.64%	+0.39	-32.0	3
2016-04-30	Crusaders	L 0-1	33.9	1206	1493	12.45%	17.37%	70.18%	-1.38	-3.3	4
2016-04-30	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	33.9	1493	1206	70.18%	17.37%	12.45%	+1.38	+3.3	15
2016-04-30	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	54.5	1140	1141	42.26%	20.00%	37.74%	+0.08	-0.2	8
2016-04-30	@ Warrenpoint Town	D 1-1	54.5	1141	1140	37.74%	20.00%	42.26%	-0.08	+0.2	7
2016-04-30	Linfield	L 0-1	41.9	1364	1464	28.87%	19.73%	51.40%	-0.43	-7.3	6
2016-04-30	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	41.9	1464	1364	51.40%	19.73%	28.87%	+0.43	+7.3	12
2016-04-30	Portadown	L 0-2	39.8	1111	1075	47.32%	19.90%	32.78%	+0.27	-20.8	6
2016-04-30	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	39.8	1075	1111	32.78%	19.90%	47.32%	-0.27	+20.8	7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-03-22	6.51%	@ Carrick Rangers	1045	4	Crusaders	1466	3
2	2016-01-16	13.09%	@ Warrenpoint Town	993	3	Coleraine	1269	0
3	2016-02-12	13.60%	@ Portadown	1137	2	Linfield	1405	1
4	2015-09-12	16.05%	@ Ballymena United	1113	6	Cliftonville	1346	1
5	2016-02-15	17.28%	Glentoran	1183	3	@ Glenavon	1366	1
6	2016-01-23	17.96%	Warrenpoint Town	1059	4	@ Glentoran	1234	0
7	2015-10-03	18.40%	Ballinamallard United	1074	2	@ Glentoran	1244	0
8	2015-09-05	18.82%	Ballymena United	1090	3	@ Glentoran	1254	1
9	2015-11-28	19.97%	@ Portadown	1160	2	Linfield	1345	0
10	2016-01-23	20.42%	@ Carrick Rangers	1046	2	Coleraine	1226	1
11	2016-04-23	21.58%	Carrick Rangers	1029	3	@ Dungannon Swifts	1163	1
12	2016-04-16	22.25%	Glentoran	1205	2	@ Cliftonville	1332	0
13	2015-10-24	22.56%	Ballinamallard United	1100	3	@ Portadown	1224	0
14	2016-02-27	22.65%	Coleraine	1215	3	@ Cliftonville	1338	1
15	2016-02-27	24.08%	@ Ballinamallard United	1076	1	Glentoran	1219	0
16	2016-01-01	24.33%	@ Dungannon Swifts	1120	3	Glentoran	1261	1
17	2016-01-19	25.20%	@ Warrenpoint Town	1035	2	Portadown	1168	0
18	2016-03-19	25.27%	Dungannon Swifts	1146	1	@ Coleraine	1244	0
19	2016-01-01	25.59%	@ Linfield	1342	2	Crusaders	1470	0
20	2015-08-08	25.60%	Portadown	1257	2	@ Crusaders	1352	1
21	2015-11-28	26.29%	@ Glentoran	1228	2	Glenavon	1351	0
22	2016-03-02	26.96%	@ Carrick Rangers	1039	1	Dungannon Swifts	1156	0
23	2015-08-08	27.18%	Carrick Rangers	1069	2	@ Dungannon Swifts	1150	1
24	2015-12-19	27.18%	@ Glentoran	1246	2	Cliftonville	1361	0
25	2015-12-19	28.17%	Carrick Rangers	1039	2	@ Ballinamallard United	1112	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2015-09-12	54.27	@ Ballymena United	6	1113	16.05%	Cliftonville	1	1346	65.68%	18.27%
2	2016-01-23	51.45	Warrenpoint Town	4	1059	17.96%	@ Glentoran	0	1234	63.42%	18.62%
3	2016-01-16	42.84	@ Warrenpoint Town	3	993	13.09%	Coleraine	0	1269	69.36%	17.56%
4	2015-10-24	36.33	Ballinamallard United	3	1100	22.56%	@ Portadown	0	1224	58.20%	19.24%
5	2016-04-30	31.98	@ Coleraine	3	1185	29.64%	Cliftonville	0	1279	50.59%	19.77%
6	2015-08-12	30.32	Glenavon	7	1265	52.83%	@ Ballymena United	1	1153	27.51%	19.65%
7	2015-11-07	27.14	@ Coleraine	4	1238	50.08%	Portadown	0	1181	30.13%	19.79%
8	2015-10-03	26.91	Ballinamallard United	2	1074	18.40%	@ Glentoran	0	1244	62.91%	18.69%
9	2015-11-28	26.18	@ Portadown	2	1160	19.97%	Linfield	0	1345	61.11%	18.92%
10	2016-04-16	25.15	Glentoran	2	1205	22.25%	@ Cliftonville	0	1332	58.55%	19.20%
11	2016-02-12	24.51	@ Warrenpoint Town	3	1111	43.25%	Ballinamallard United	0	1105	36.77%	19.99%
12	2016-01-19	23.87	@ Warrenpoint Town	2	1035	25.20%	Portadown	0	1168	55.32%	19.48%
13	2016-04-19	23.85	@ Warrenpoint Town	4	1101	36.17%	Ballymena United	1	1145	43.85%	19.98%
14	2016-02-15	23.77	Glentoran	3	1183	17.28%	@ Glenavon	1	1366	64.22%	18.50%
15	2015-09-12	23.74	@ Crusaders	3	1389	44.67%	Linfield	0	1373	35.36%	19.96%
16	2016-01-01	23.70	@ Linfield	2	1342	25.59%	Crusaders	0	1470	54.89%	19.52%
17	2015-11-28	23.40	@ Glentoran	2	1228	26.29%	Glenavon	0	1351	54.14%	19.57%
18	2015-09-05	23.13	Ballymena United	3	1090	18.82%	@ Glentoran	1	1254	62.42%	18.76%
19	2015-12-19	23.03	@ Glentoran	2	1246	27.18%	Cliftonville	0	1361	53.19%	19.63%
20	2015-09-05	22.22	Coleraine	3	1198	47.47%	@ Dungannon Swifts	0	1128	32.64%	19.89%
21	2016-04-23	22.04	Carrick Rangers	3	1029	21.58%	@ Dungannon Swifts	1	1163	59.29%	19.13%
22	2015-08-12	21.77	@ Cliftonville	4	1324	57.29%	Coleraine	0	1208	23.39%	19.32%
23	2016-02-27	21.63	Coleraine	3	1215	22.65%	@ Cliftonville	1	1338	58.11%	19.25%
24	2015-08-08	21.53	@ Linfield	4	1293	57.60%	Ballymena United	0	1174	23.10%	19.29%
25	2015-11-28	21.37	@ Dungannon Swifts	5	1085	52.11%	Warrenpoint Town	1	1013	28.20%	19.69%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-01-16	65.7	@ Glenavon	3	1350	44.80%	Cliftonville	3	1333	35.24%	19.96%
2	2015-10-03	65.6	@ Cliftonville	3	1308	34.22%	Linfield	3	1366	45.84%	19.94%
3	2016-01-12	65.2	@ Cliftonville	3	1335	72.53%	Carrick Rangers	3	1050	10.69%	16.78%
4	2016-03-22	64.8	@ Carrick Rangers	4	1045	6.51%	Crusaders	3	1466	78.79%	14.70%
5	2015-09-19	64.4	@ Portadown	3	1243	57.46%	Dungannon Swifts	3	1125	23.23%	19.31%
6	2015-12-26	64.0	@ Crusaders	2	1472	59.31%	Cliftonville	2	1338	21.56%	19.13%
7	2015-08-12	60.9	@ Glentoran	2	1250	30.03%	Crusaders	2	1340	50.18%	19.79%
8	2015-08-30	60.9	@ Warrenpoint Town	2	1105	14.64%	Cliftonville	2	1357	67.41%	17.95%
9	2015-09-19	60.7	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1078	15.38%	Glenavon	2	1320	66.49%	18.12%
10	2015-09-22	60.7	@ Portadown	2	1242	31.87%	Glenavon	2	1318	48.26%	19.87%
11	2016-03-12	60.6	@ Dungannon Swifts	2	1144	19.86%	Cliftonville	2	1330	61.23%	18.91%
12	2016-04-02	60.6	@ Ballymena United	2	1108	18.21%	Cliftonville	2	1313	63.13%	18.66%
13	2015-10-31	60.1	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1053	28.07%	Ballymena United	2	1160	52.24%	19.69%
14	2016-02-11	60.0	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1045	32.17%	Dungannon Swifts	2	1119	47.95%	19.88%
15	2016-02-12	58.9	@ Crusaders	1	1464	55.38%	Glenavon	1	1364	25.14%	19.48%
16	2016-02-27	57.1	@ Linfield	1	1395	48.36%	Glenavon	1	1352	31.78%	19.86%
17	2016-01-01	56.4	Ballymena United	4	1144	33.11%	@ Portadown	3	1177	46.99%	19.91%
18	2016-02-27	56.4	@ Warrenpoint Town	1	1133	9.90%	Crusaders	1	1468	73.62%	16.48%
19	2015-10-17	56.0	@ Ballinamallard United	1	1097	10.03%	Crusaders	1	1428	73.44%	16.53%
20	2015-12-19	56.0	@ Glenavon	1	1349	77.57%	Warrenpoint Town	1	984	7.26%	15.17%
21	2015-09-19	55.9	@ Coleraine	1	1202	17.69%	Crusaders	1	1413	63.73%	18.57%
22	2015-10-24	55.9	@ Linfield	1	1372	75.04%	Carrick Rangers	1	1049	8.91%	16.04%
23	2016-01-01	55.9	@ Cliftonville	1	1339	76.72%	Warrenpoint Town	1	989	7.80%	15.48%
24	2015-10-31	55.8	@ Cliftonville	1	1332	43.51%	Glenavon	1	1324	36.50%	19.98%
25	2015-10-10	55.6	@ Linfield	1	1366	60.86%	Glentoran	1	1217	20.19%	18.95%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2016-03-19	23.6	Crusaders	4	1460	78.09%	@ Carrick Rangers	0	1052	6.94%	14.98%
2	2015-09-26	24.8	@ Crusaders	5	1411	75.49%	Carrick Rangers	0	1080	8.61%	15.90%
3	2015-10-17	26.2	Linfield	3	1364	71.00%	@ Warrenpoint Town	0	1066	11.82%	17.18%
4	2015-08-29	26.7	@ Crusaders	4	1366	67.89%	Dungannon Swifts	0	1142	14.24%	17.86%
5	2015-11-14	26.9	Coleraine	4	1265	65.85%	@ Warrenpoint Town	0	1031	15.91%	18.24%
6	2016-01-30	27.3	@ Linfield	2	1383	75.10%	Carrick Rangers	0	1059	8.87%	16.02%
7	2016-02-02	27.3	@ Linfield	6	1387	69.97%	Dungannon Swifts	0	1137	12.61%	17.42%
8	2015-08-15	27.5	@ Crusaders	5	1340	66.28%	Ballinamallard United	0	1134	15.56%	18.16%
9	2015-08-12	27.7	Linfield	3	1315	65.81%	@ Carrick Rangers	0	1081	15.95%	18.24%
10	2015-12-04	28.0	@ Glenavon	2	1328	72.36%	Carrick Rangers	0	1045	10.82%	16.83%
11	2016-01-23	28.2	Linfield	4	1365	63.11%	@ Ballymena United	0	1160	18.23%	18.66%
12	2016-03-12	28.3	@ Linfield	3	1394	65.92%	Glentoran	0	1193	15.85%	18.22%
13	2016-03-26	28.6	@ Crusaders	2	1451	73.08%	Dungannon Swifts	0	1158	10.29%	16.63%
14	2016-04-16	28.6	@ Linfield	3	1415	65.86%	Coleraine	0	1214	15.90%	18.23%
15	2015-11-14	29.1	@ Crusaders	3	1446	66.17%	Glentoran	0	1242	15.65%	18.18%
16	2016-01-23	29.1	@ Cliftonville	2	1333	68.95%	Ballinamallard United	0	1096	13.41%	17.64%
17	2016-04-19	29.3	Linfield	4	1427	62.30%	@ Glentoran	0	1230	18.93%	18.77%
18	2016-02-02	29.5	Glenavon	5	1355	71.22%	@ Carrick Rangers	1	1054	11.66%	17.12%
19	2015-08-08	29.6	@ Linfield	4	1293	57.60%	Ballymena United	0	1174	23.10%	19.29%
20	2015-08-15	29.6	Glenavon	3	1295	59.47%	@ Warrenpoint Town	0	1125	21.42%	19.11%
21	2015-09-19	29.9	@ Linfield	5	1349	70.19%	Warrenpoint Town	1	1096	12.44%	17.37%
22	2016-04-19	29.9	@ Glenavon	3	1342	59.88%	Coleraine	0	1203	21.05%	19.06%
23	2015-08-12	30.0	@ Cliftonville	4	1324	57.29%	Coleraine	0	1208	23.39%	19.32%
24	2015-10-10	30.3	@ Crusaders	1	1427	77.18%	Warrenpoint Town	0	1068	7.50%	15.31%
25	2015-09-26	30.5	Cliftonville	2	1299	64.18%	@ Ballinamallard United	0	1083	17.31%	18.51%