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2019-20 NIFL Premiership Season

186 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

69 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Larne

6.48 points above expected

56 points · 49.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ballymena United

15.94 points below expected

27 points · 42.94 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 31 22 3 6 69 71 24 +47 62.67 +6.33
2 Coleraine 31 19 8 4 65 64 24 +40 58.86 +6.14
3 Crusaders 31 17 8 6 59 66 30 +36 61.82 -2.82
4 Cliftonville 31 18 5 8 59 48 22 +26 54.40 +4.60
5 Glentoran 31 17 7 7 58 60 33 +27 52.68 +5.32
6 Larne 31 16 8 7 56 59 29 +30 49.52 +6.48
7 Glenavon 31 10 5 16 35 46 71 -25 39.11 -4.11
8 Carrick Rangers 31 10 2 19 32 34 47 -13 31.47 +0.53
9 Dungannon Swifts 31 8 6 17 30 36 76 -40 26.65 +3.35
10 Ballymena United 31 7 6 18 27 34 54 -20 42.94 -15.94
11 Warrenpoint Town 31 5 3 23 18 26 85 -59 19.98 -1.98
12 Institute Drumahoe 31 2 9 20 15 23 72 -49 22.94 -7.94

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Larne 56 49.52 +6.48
2 Linfield 69 62.67 +6.33
3 Coleraine 65 58.86 +6.14
4 Glentoran 58 52.68 +5.32
5 Cliftonville 59 54.40 +4.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ballymena United 27 42.94 -15.94
2 Institute Drumahoe 15 22.94 -7.94
3 Glenavon 35 39.11 -4.11
4 Crusaders 59 61.82 -2.82
5 Warrenpoint Town 18 19.98 -1.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 7 Oct 4 – Nov 16 1 in 40
2 Larne 6 Jan 25 – Mar 7 1 in 37
3 Dungannon Swifts 3 Aug 13 – Aug 24 1 in 27
4 Coleraine 6 Oct 5 – Nov 9 1 in 26
5 Ballymena United 3 Dec 7 – Dec 20 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dungannon Swifts 8 Oct 5 – Nov 30 1 in 91
2 Ballymena United 7 Dec 26 – Feb 14 1 in 77
3 Warrenpoint Town 8 Aug 10 – Sep 28 1 in 77
4 Cliftonville 3 Jan 13 – Jan 27 1 in 29
5 Coleraine 1 Nov 16 – Nov 16 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 15 Aug 10 – Nov 9 1 in 251
2 Glentoran 15 Oct 12 – Jan 18 1 in 169
3 Institute Drumahoe 3 Oct 26 – Nov 9 1 in 36
4 Dungannon Swifts 4 Aug 10 – Aug 24 1 in 14
5 Cliftonville 8 Oct 4 – Nov 23 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ballymena United 10 Oct 5 – Nov 30 1 in 373
2 Crusaders 5 Oct 12 – Nov 11 1 in 78
3 Institute Drumahoe 13 Dec 7 – Mar 7 1 in 34
4 Glentoran 4 Feb 8 – Mar 7 1 in 32
5 Coleraine 4 Nov 30 – Dec 21 1 in 23

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1465 69 +60 15 11.1 +3.9
Coleraine 1422 65 +42 15 9.9 +5.1
Cliftonville 1364 59 +29 9 9.0 -0.0
Crusaders 1376 59 -49 7 10.0 -3.0
Glentoran 1360 58 -29 5 9.8 -4.8
Larne 1377 56 +47 15 10.5 +4.5
Glenavon 1184 35 -8 4 3.3 +0.7
Carrick Rangers 1141 32 -3 4 5.0 -1.0
Dungannon Swifts 1053 30 +27 8 4.7 +3.3
Ballymena United 1091 27 -51 1 4.8 -3.8
Warrenpoint Town 984 18 +14 5 4.0 +1.0
Institute Drumahoe 956 15 -38 1 3.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BU CR CLI COL CRU DS GLE GLE ID LAR LIN WT
Ballymena United —
1-0-2
5.39
1-1-1
2.74
0-1-2
2.58
1-1-1
2.11
1-1-1
5.36
1-0-2
4.74
0-0-3
3.86
0-2-0
4.15
1-0-2
3.87
0-0-3
2.20
1-0-1
4.32
Carrick Rangers
2-0-1
3.02
—
1-0-2
2.45
0-0-3
1.91
0-0-2
1.34
1-0-2
4.74
1-0-1
2.63
0-1-2
2.22
3-0-0
4.71
0-1-2
2.43
0-0-3
1.79
2-0-1
5.76
Cliftonville
1-1-1
5.69
2-0-1
5.98
—
1-1-1
3.71
1-1-1
3.47
2-1-0
6.38
3-0-0
5.33
2-0-1
4.31
2-0-0
4.45
2-1-0
4.49
0-0-3
3.77
2-0-0
4.50
Coleraine
2-1-0
5.85
3-0-0
6.55
1-1-1
4.69
—
2-0-1
4.02
2-0-0
4.38
3-0-0
5.79
1-2-0
4.24
1-1-1
7.01
0-2-0
3.48
2-1-0
3.92
2-0-1
7.51
Crusaders
1-1-1
6.34
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-1
4.94
1-0-2
4.38
—
3-0-0
6.86
1-1-1
6.31
1-1-0
3.44
2-1-0
7.21
1-2-0
5.29
1-1-1
3.83
3-0-0
7.11
Dungannon Swifts
1-1-1
3.06
2-0-1
3.67
0-1-2
2.08
0-0-2
1.26
0-0-3
1.62
—
1-0-1
1.94
1-0-2
2.24
2-1-0
4.47
0-1-2
2.02
0-1-2
1.27
1-1-1
5.37
Glenavon
2-0-1
3.66
1-0-1
2.97
0-0-3
3.09
0-0-3
2.65
1-1-1
2.13
1-0-1
3.67
—
0-2-1
3.25
2-1-0
5.75
0-0-3
2.71
1-0-2
2.18
2-1-0
6.31
Glentoran
3-0-0
4.56
2-1-0
6.22
1-0-2
4.10
0-2-1
4.16
0-1-1
2.17
2-0-1
6.21
1-2-0
5.18
—
2-1-0
6.51
2-0-1
4.33
1-0-1
2.20
3-0-0
7.13
Institute Drumahoe
0-2-0
1.47
0-0-3
3.70
0-0-2
1.19
1-1-1
1.48
0-1-2
1.30
0-1-2
3.93
0-1-2
2.67
0-1-2
1.95
—
0-1-2
1.89
0-0-3
1.49
1-1-1
4.41
Larne
2-0-1
4.53
2-1-0
5.99
0-1-2
3.92
0-2-0
2.13
0-2-1
3.12
2-1-0
6.42
3-0-0
5.71
1-0-2
4.07
2-1-0
6.57
—
1-0-1
2.03
3-0-0
6.60
Linfield
3-0-0
6.23
3-0-0
6.67
3-0-0
4.63
0-1-2
4.49
1-1-1
4.57
2-1-0
7.24
2-0-1
6.26
1-0-1
3.40
3-0-0
7.00
1-0-1
3.58
—
3-0-0
7.55
Warrenpoint Town
1-0-1
1.31
1-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
1.16
1-0-2
1.03
0-0-3
1.38
1-1-1
3.04
0-1-2
2.13
0-0-3
1.37
1-1-1
4.00
0-0-3
1.88
0-0-3
1.00
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.92 +11.2
Allowed 0.84 -7.6
Differential 0.96 +4.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.30%8.06%5.91%3.76%4.03%2.42%28.49%
18.06%8.60%6.72%4.03%1.34%1.08%29.84%
25.91%6.72%5.38%1.61%0.81%0.54%20.97%
33.76%4.03%1.61%—0.27%—9.68%
44.03%1.34%0.81%0.27%0.54%—6.99%
5+2.42%1.08%0.54%———4.03%
Total28.49%29.84%20.97%9.68%6.99%4.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.52 +0.00
SD 1.49 1.49 2.41
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 186

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.45%16.13%6.45%——29.03%
16.45%16.13%16.13%6.45%3.23%—48.39%
2—6.45%3.23%3.23%——12.90%
3——3.23%———3.23%
43.23%—3.23%———6.45%
5+———————
Total9.68%29.03%41.94%16.13%3.23%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.74 -0.65
SD 1.08 0.96 1.58
CV 0.98 0.55 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%12.90%9.68%6.45%3.23%—38.71%
19.68%—12.90%9.68%3.23%—35.48%
26.45%3.23%—3.23%——12.90%
39.68%—————9.68%
4———————
5+——3.23%———3.23%
Total32.26%16.13%25.81%19.35%6.45%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.52 -0.42
SD 1.33 1.31 2.05
CV 1.21 0.87 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.23%12.90%6.45%———22.58%
122.58%12.90%6.45%———41.94%
23.23%9.68%————12.90%
33.23%6.45%————9.68%
46.45%—————6.45%
5+3.23%3.23%————6.45%
Total41.94%45.16%12.90%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 0.71 +0.84
SD 1.46 0.69 1.79
CV 0.94 0.98 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%6.45%3.23%———16.13%
19.68%9.68%—3.23%——22.58%
216.13%3.23%9.68%———29.03%
33.23%—3.23%———6.45%
412.90%3.23%6.45%———22.58%
5+3.23%—————3.23%
Total51.61%22.58%22.58%3.23%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 0.77 +1.29
SD 1.48 0.92 1.81
CV 0.72 1.19 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%3.23%3.23%—3.23%—16.13%
19.68%12.90%6.45%———29.03%
26.45%3.23%6.45%—3.23%—19.35%
39.68%3.23%3.23%———16.13%
46.45%—————6.45%
5+6.45%3.23%3.23%———12.90%
Total45.16%25.81%22.58%—6.45%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.13 0.97 +1.16
SD 1.75 1.14 2.28
CV 0.82 1.18 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.45%6.45%9.68%3.23%3.23%12.90%41.94%
13.23%3.23%3.23%—3.23%6.45%19.35%
23.23%9.68%6.45%3.23%——22.58%
3—6.45%3.23%—3.23%—12.90%
4————3.23%—3.23%
5+———————
Total12.90%25.81%22.58%6.45%12.90%19.35%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 2.45 -1.29
SD 1.21 1.86 2.36
CV 1.05 0.76 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.45%——9.68%6.45%22.58%
16.45%6.45%12.90%6.45%—3.23%35.48%
23.23%3.23%9.68%3.23%—3.23%22.58%
33.23%9.68%————12.90%
4—3.23%————3.23%
5+3.23%—————3.23%
Total16.13%29.03%22.58%9.68%9.68%12.90%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 2.29 -0.81
SD 1.26 2.12 2.91
CV 0.85 0.92 —
Max 5 8 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.23%9.68%3.23%———16.13%
13.23%9.68%3.23%3.23%——19.35%
212.90%12.90%9.68%——3.23%38.71%
33.23%6.45%3.23%———12.90%
49.68%—————9.68%
5+—3.23%————3.23%
Total32.26%41.94%19.35%3.23%—3.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.06 +0.87
SD 1.39 1.09 1.91
CV 0.72 1.03 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.23%6.45%9.68%16.13%9.68%3.23%48.39%
1—16.13%3.23%6.45%6.45%—32.26%
23.23%—9.68%3.23%——16.13%
3—3.23%————3.23%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.45%25.81%22.58%25.81%16.13%3.23%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.74 2.32 -1.58
SD 0.86 1.38 1.84
CV 1.15 0.59 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.90%6.45%—3.23%——22.58%
19.68%6.45%6.45%———22.58%
26.45%6.45%6.45%3.23%3.23%—25.81%
33.23%6.45%3.23%———12.90%
46.45%3.23%————9.68%
5+6.45%—————6.45%
Total45.16%29.03%16.13%6.45%3.23%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 0.94 +0.97
SD 1.66 1.09 2.11
CV 0.87 1.17 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.23%9.68%—3.23%——16.13%
112.90%6.45%—3.23%——22.58%
29.68%16.13%——3.23%—29.03%
39.68%3.23%————12.90%
43.23%6.45%————9.68%
5+6.45%3.23%————9.68%
Total45.16%45.16%—6.45%3.23%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 0.77 +1.52
SD 2.05 0.99 2.46
CV 0.90 1.28 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 31

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.68%9.68%6.45%19.35%6.45%51.61%
13.23%3.23%9.68%9.68%—3.23%29.03%
2—6.45%3.23%———9.68%
3—3.23%————3.23%
4———3.23%3.23%—6.45%
5+———————
Total3.23%22.58%22.58%19.35%22.58%9.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.84 2.74 -1.90
SD 1.16 1.61 2.17
CV 1.38 0.59 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 31

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1465 69 65.48 +3.52 69.0% 45 52 60 65 71 79 81
Coleraine 1422 65 61.67 +3.33 70.0% 44 49 57 61 67 74 76
Larne 1377 56 52.33 +3.67 70.0% 33 37 47 52 57 67 71
Crusaders 1376 59 64.63 -5.63 22.0% 50 52 60 64 70 75 77
Cliftonville 1364 59 57.21 +1.79 67.0% 31 47 52 57 62 69 80
Glentoran 1360 58 55.49 +2.51 66.0% 37 42 51 55 60 66 76
Glenavon 1184 35 41.92 -6.92 18.0% 26 31 36 42 47 54 63
Carrick Rangers 1141 32 34.28 -2.28 45.0% 20 23 29 34 40 45 50
Ballymena United 1091 27 45.75 -18.75 1.0% 24 32 40 46 51 59 68
Dungannon Swifts 1053 30 29.46 +0.54 57.0% 11 20 26 30 33 38 51
Warrenpoint Town 984 18 22.79 -4.79 22.0% 7 14 19 22 26 32 37
Institute Drumahoe 956 15 25.75 -10.75 5.0% 11 15 22 25 29 39 45

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.06%
Slight Edge
44.62%18.82%36.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 28.08 Elo pts.
151 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.25 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
34%
Linfield, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.13/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.54 * Some Luck: 5.54 to 8.32 * Lucky: 8.32 to 11.09 * Wild Swing: 11.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.94 * Close: 0.94 to 1.41 * Off: 1.41 to 1.88 * Way Off: 1.88 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
7.03 points
Some Luck
06.9317
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.83
Pinpoint
01.182.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
84.31%
Coleraine
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
2.14%
Ballymena United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 182.39
2.53
Wide Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
84%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Some Drama
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.52
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.92
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.61
Some Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.52
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.13
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1210.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Linfield34.00%27.00%16.00%11.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%—————
Coleraine22.00%22.00%21.00%15.00%11.00%8.00%1.00%—————
Crusaders32.00%23.00%18.00%16.00%6.00%5.00%——————
Cliftonville5.00%10.00%16.00%25.00%21.00%14.00%8.00%—1.00%———
Glentoran4.00%6.00%19.00%17.00%23.00%18.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%———
Larne3.00%8.00%7.00%12.00%19.00%23.00%17.00%8.00%3.00%———
Glenavon—1.00%—2.00%6.00%7.00%21.00%32.00%21.00%10.00%——
Carrick Rangers—————2.00%10.00%20.00%33.00%22.00%6.00%7.00%
Dungannon Swifts—————1.00%1.00%6.00%19.00%40.00%23.00%10.00%
Ballymena United—3.00%3.00%2.00%8.00%18.00%31.00%23.00%9.00%2.00%—1.00%
Warrenpoint Town———————2.00%6.00%11.00%25.00%56.00%
Institute Drumahoe——————1.00%6.00%6.00%15.00%46.00%26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Relegated
Ballymena United 100% —
Cliftonville 100% —
Coleraine 100% —
Crusaders 100% —
Glenavon 100% —
Glentoran 100% —
Larne 100% —
Linfield 100% —
Carrick Rangers 97.00% 3.00%
Dungannon Swifts 92.00% 8.00%
Institute Drumahoe 67.00% 33.00%
Warrenpoint Town 44.00% 56.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-08-09 Glentoran D 1-154.7 1314 1236 54.31% 19.59% 26.10%+0.70 -1.8 1
2019-08-09 @ Glenavon D 1-154.7 1236 1314 26.10% 19.59% 54.31%-0.70 +1.8 1
2019-08-10 Ballymena United D 2-259.8 1157 1274 28.54% 19.72% 51.74%-0.58 +1.1 1
2019-08-10 @ Dungannon Swifts D 2-259.8 1274 1157 51.74% 19.72% 28.54%+0.58 -1.1 1
2019-08-10 Carrick Rangers W 3-030.4 1308 1133 64.55% 18.68% 16.78%+1.34 +15.3 3
2019-08-10 @ Crusaders L 0-330.4 1133 1308 16.78% 18.68% 64.55%-1.34 -15.3 0
2019-08-10 Cliftonville D 1-154.5 1261 1247 46.32% 19.89% 33.79%+0.28 -0.8 1
2019-08-10 @ Coleraine D 1-154.5 1247 1261 33.79% 19.89% 46.32%-0.28 +0.8 1
2019-08-10 Institute Drumahoe W 3-138.0 1331 1160 64.18% 18.72% 17.09%+1.32 +9.3 3
2019-08-10 @ Linfield L 1-338.0 1160 1331 17.09% 18.72% 64.18%-1.32 -9.3 0
2019-08-10 Warrenpoint Town W 6-033.6 1202 1150 51.26% 19.74% 29.00%+0.53 +47.6 3
2019-08-10 @ Larne L 0-633.6 1150 1202 29.00% 19.74% 51.26%-0.53 -47.7 0
2019-08-13 Coleraine D 2-259.9 1238 1261 41.10% 19.96% 38.95%+0.04 -0.1 2
2019-08-13 @ Glentoran D 2-259.9 1261 1238 38.95% 19.96% 41.10%-0.04 +0.1 2
2019-08-13 Dungannon Swifts L 2-352.9 1151 1158 43.22% 19.94% 36.84%+0.14 -11.3 0
2019-08-13 @ Institute Drumahoe W 3-252.9 1158 1151 36.84% 19.94% 43.22%-0.14 +11.3 4
2019-08-13 Glenavon W 3-146.9 1247 1312 35.24% 19.92% 44.84%-0.24 +21.3 4
2019-08-13 @ Cliftonville L 1-346.9 1312 1247 44.84% 19.92% 35.24%+0.24 -21.3 1
2019-08-13 Larne L 1-242.7 1117 1250 26.65% 19.63% 53.73%-0.69 -8.0 0
2019-08-13 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-142.7 1250 1117 53.73% 19.63% 26.65%+0.69 +8.0 6
2019-08-13 Warrenpoint Town W 4-028.4 1323 1102 68.40% 18.08% 13.51%+1.64 +16.2 6
2019-08-13 @ Crusaders L 0-428.4 1102 1323 13.51% 18.08% 68.40%-1.64 -16.2 0
2019-08-17 Ballymena United L 2-450.2 1258 1272 42.26% 19.95% 37.79%+0.09 -18.1 6
2019-08-17 @ Larne W 4-250.2 1272 1258 37.79% 19.95% 42.26%-0.09 +18.1 4
2019-08-17 Carrick Rangers L 0-241.8 1139 1109 48.34% 19.84% 31.82%+0.38 -26.2 0
2019-08-17 @ Institute Drumahoe W 2-041.8 1109 1139 31.82% 19.84% 48.34%-0.38 +26.2 3
2019-08-17 Coleraine L 2-454.2 1340 1261 54.55% 19.58% 25.87%+0.71 -22.6 3
2019-08-17 @ Linfield W 4-254.2 1261 1340 25.87% 19.58% 54.55%-0.71 +22.6 5
2019-08-17 Crusaders L 0-238.6 1269 1339 34.41% 19.91% 45.69%-0.28 -19.8 4
2019-08-17 @ Cliftonville W 2-038.6 1339 1269 45.69% 19.91% 34.41%+0.28 +19.8 9
2019-08-17 Glentoran W 3-146.6 1170 1238 34.67% 19.91% 45.42%-0.27 +21.5 7
2019-08-17 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-346.6 1238 1170 45.42% 19.91% 34.67%+0.27 -21.5 2
2019-08-17 Warrenpoint Town W 2-031.3 1290 1086 67.09% 18.31% 14.61%+1.54 +9.2 4
2019-08-17 @ Glenavon L 0-231.3 1086 1290 14.61% 18.31% 67.09%-1.54 -9.2 0
2019-08-24 Cliftonville L 0-138.4 1136 1249 28.92% 19.74% 51.34%-0.56 -9.1 3
2019-08-24 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-038.4 1249 1136 51.34% 19.74% 28.92%+0.56 +9.1 7
2019-08-24 Glenavon W 2-150.3 1191 1300 29.50% 19.76% 50.74%-0.53 +13.7 10
2019-08-24 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-250.3 1300 1191 50.74% 19.76% 29.50%+0.53 -13.7 4
2019-08-24 Glentoran L 1-251.2 1291 1216 53.93% 19.62% 26.46%+0.68 -14.4 4
2019-08-24 @ Ballymena United W 2-151.2 1216 1291 26.46% 19.62% 53.93%-0.68 +14.5 5
2019-08-24 Institute Drumahoe D 0-050.4 1283 1113 64.12% 18.73% 17.15%+1.31 -3.6 6
2019-08-24 @ Coleraine D 0-050.4 1113 1283 17.15% 18.73% 64.12%-1.31 +3.6 1
2019-08-24 Larne D 2-260.6 1359 1240 59.02% 19.27% 21.71%+0.97 -1.8 10
2019-08-24 @ Crusaders D 2-260.6 1240 1359 21.71% 19.27% 59.02%-0.97 +1.8 7
2019-08-30 Ballymena United L 0-137.1 1127 1276 24.76% 19.51% 55.73%-0.80 -7.9 3
2019-08-30 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-037.1 1276 1127 55.73% 19.51% 24.76%+0.80 +7.9 7
2019-08-30 Coleraine L 0-438.9 1286 1280 45.13% 19.92% 34.95%+0.23 -46.9 4
2019-08-30 @ Glenavon W 4-038.9 1280 1286 34.95% 19.92% 45.13%-0.23 +46.9 9
2019-08-31 Cliftonville L 1-535.2 1077 1258 21.52% 19.25% 59.23%-1.01 -20.9 0
2019-08-31 @ Warrenpoint Town W 5-135.2 1258 1077 59.23% 19.25% 21.52%+1.01 +20.9 10
2019-08-31 Dungannon Swifts W 3-031.5 1357 1205 62.43% 18.93% 18.64%+1.19 +16.8 13
2019-08-31 @ Crusaders L 0-331.5 1205 1357 18.64% 18.93% 62.43%-1.19 -16.8 10
2019-09-02 Institute Drumahoe W 4-031.3 1231 1117 58.52% 19.31% 22.18%+0.94 +25.8 8
2019-09-02 @ Glentoran L 0-431.3 1117 1231 22.18% 19.31% 58.52%-0.94 -25.8 1
2019-09-07 Crusaders L 0-628.6 1091 1374 13.37% 18.05% 68.58%-1.69 -23.5 1
2019-09-07 @ Institute Drumahoe W 6-028.6 1374 1091 68.58% 18.05% 13.37%+1.69 +23.5 16
2019-09-07 Dungannon Swifts W 5-030.7 1327 1188 61.09% 19.08% 19.84%+1.10 +28.7 12
2019-09-07 @ Coleraine L 0-530.7 1188 1327 19.84% 19.08% 61.09%-1.10 -28.7 10
2019-09-07 Larne W 2-145.2 1257 1242 46.33% 19.89% 33.78%+0.28 +9.8 11
2019-09-07 @ Glentoran L 1-245.2 1242 1257 33.78% 19.89% 46.33%-0.28 -9.8 7
2019-09-07 Linfield L 0-142.1 1279 1318 38.81% 19.95% 41.24%-0.07 -11.6 10
2019-09-07 @ Cliftonville W 1-042.1 1318 1279 41.24% 19.95% 38.81%+0.07 +11.6 6
2019-09-07 Warrenpoint Town W 4-028.1 1284 1056 68.99% 17.98% 13.04%+1.69 +15.7 10
2019-09-07 @ Ballymena United L 0-428.1 1056 1284 13.04% 17.98% 68.99%-1.69 -15.7 0
2019-09-14 Carrick Rangers L 0-335.5 1040 1119 33.36% 19.88% 46.76%-0.33 -28.0 0
2019-09-14 @ Warrenpoint Town W 3-035.5 1119 1040 46.76% 19.88% 33.36%+0.33 +28.0 6
2019-09-14 Cliftonville L 0-433.7 1159 1267 29.55% 19.76% 50.69%-0.53 -33.1 10
2019-09-14 @ Dungannon Swifts W 4-033.7 1267 1159 50.69% 19.76% 29.55%+0.53 +33.1 13
2019-09-14 Coleraine D 1-155.3 1300 1355 36.41% 19.94% 43.65%-0.18 +0.5 11
2019-09-14 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.3 1355 1300 43.65% 19.94% 36.41%+0.18 -0.5 13
2019-09-14 Glenavon W 3-246.2 1397 1239 63.00% 18.87% 18.13%+1.23 +5.4 19
2019-09-14 @ Crusaders L 2-346.2 1239 1397 18.13% 18.87% 63.00%-1.23 -5.4 4
2019-09-14 Glentoran W 1-038.7 1329 1266 52.53% 19.69% 27.78%+0.60 +8.8 9
2019-09-14 @ Linfield L 0-138.7 1266 1329 27.78% 19.69% 52.53%-0.60 -8.8 11
2019-09-14 Larne L 1-437.6 1067 1232 23.17% 19.39% 57.43%-0.90 -17.3 1
2019-09-14 @ Institute Drumahoe W 4-137.6 1232 1067 57.43% 19.39% 23.17%+0.90 +17.3 10
2019-09-21 Ballymena United W 3-146.9 1234 1300 34.94% 19.92% 45.15%-0.25 +21.4 7
2019-09-21 @ Glenavon L 1-346.9 1300 1234 45.15% 19.92% 34.94%+0.25 -21.4 11
2019-09-21 Crusaders W 4-252.6 1355 1403 37.51% 19.95% 42.55%-0.13 +18.2 16
2019-09-21 @ Coleraine L 2-452.6 1403 1355 42.55% 19.95% 37.51%+0.13 -18.2 19
2019-09-21 Dungannon Swifts D 0-050.2 1249 1126 59.48% 19.23% 21.30%+1.00 -2.8 11
2019-09-21 @ Larne D 0-050.2 1126 1249 21.30% 19.23% 59.48%-1.00 +2.8 11
2019-09-21 Institute Drumahoe W 1-032.5 1300 1050 70.64% 17.65% 11.71%+1.84 +3.9 16
2019-09-21 @ Cliftonville L 0-132.5 1050 1300 11.71% 17.65% 70.64%-1.84 -3.9 1
2019-09-21 Warrenpoint Town W 2-137.7 1258 1012 70.28% 17.72% 11.99%+1.81 +3.8 14
2019-09-21 @ Glentoran L 1-237.7 1012 1258 11.99% 17.72% 70.28%-1.81 -3.8 0
2019-09-23 Linfield L 0-331.8 1147 1338 20.56% 19.15% 60.29%-1.08 -18.4 6
2019-09-23 @ Carrick Rangers W 3-031.8 1338 1147 60.29% 19.15% 20.56%+1.08 +18.4 12
2019-09-28 Carrick Rangers W 2-145.5 1129 1128 44.38% 19.93% 35.69%+0.19 +10.2 14
2019-09-28 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-245.5 1128 1129 35.69% 19.93% 44.38%-0.19 -10.2 6
2019-09-28 Cliftonville W 2-147.3 1279 1304 40.67% 19.96% 39.37%+0.02 +11.0 14
2019-09-28 @ Ballymena United L 1-247.3 1304 1279 39.37% 19.96% 40.67%-0.02 -11.0 16
2019-09-28 Glenavon W 7-033.1 1356 1255 57.07% 19.42% 23.51%+0.85 +46.0 15
2019-09-28 @ Linfield L 0-733.1 1255 1356 23.51% 19.42% 57.07%-0.85 -46.0 7
2019-09-28 Glentoran W 5-241.2 1385 1261 59.46% 19.23% 21.31%+1.00 +13.9 22
2019-09-28 @ Crusaders L 2-541.2 1261 1385 21.31% 19.23% 59.46%-1.00 -13.9 14
2019-09-28 Institute Drumahoe L 1-344.5 1008 1046 38.94% 19.96% 41.10%-0.06 -19.0 0
2019-09-28 @ Warrenpoint Town W 3-144.5 1046 1008 41.10% 19.96% 38.94%+0.06 +19.0 4
2019-09-28 Larne D 0-051.2 1373 1246 59.84% 19.19% 20.97%+1.02 -2.9 17
2019-09-28 @ Coleraine D 0-051.2 1246 1373 20.97% 19.19% 59.84%-1.02 +2.9 12
2019-10-04 Cliftonville L 0-141.5 1248 1293 37.80% 19.95% 42.25%-0.12 -11.3 14
2019-10-04 @ Glentoran W 1-041.5 1293 1248 42.25% 19.95% 37.80%+0.12 +11.3 19
2019-10-04 Glenavon W 6-034.3 1249 1209 49.69% 19.80% 30.51%+0.45 +49.7 15
2019-10-04 @ Larne L 0-634.3 1209 1249 30.51% 19.80% 49.69%-0.45 -49.7 7
2019-10-04 Linfield W 1-044.1 1398 1402 43.76% 19.94% 36.31%+0.16 +11.0 25
2019-10-04 @ Crusaders L 0-144.1 1402 1398 36.31% 19.94% 43.76%-0.16 -11.0 15
2019-10-05 Ballymena United D 1-154.4 1065 1290 17.62% 18.80% 63.58%-1.30 +3.1 5
2019-10-05 @ Institute Drumahoe D 1-154.4 1290 1065 63.58% 18.80% 17.62%+1.30 -3.1 15
2019-10-05 Coleraine L 1-435.3 1118 1370 15.48% 18.47% 66.05%-1.48 -11.9 6
2019-10-05 @ Carrick Rangers W 4-135.3 1370 1118 66.05% 18.47% 15.48%+1.48 +11.9 20
2019-10-05 Dungannon Swifts W 4-359.5 990 1139 24.77% 19.51% 55.72%-0.80 +13.8 3
2019-10-05 @ Warrenpoint Town L 3-459.5 1139 990 55.72% 19.51% 24.77%+0.80 -13.8 14
2019-10-12 Carrick Rangers W 3-138.9 1236 1106 60.20% 19.16% 20.64%+1.05 +11.0 17
2019-10-12 @ Glentoran L 1-338.9 1106 1236 20.64% 19.16% 60.20%-1.05 -11.0 6
2019-10-12 Crusaders D 1-155.9 1287 1409 27.80% 19.69% 52.51%-0.63 +1.6 16
2019-10-12 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.9 1409 1287 52.51% 19.69% 27.80%+0.63 -1.6 26
2019-10-12 Larne W 1-041.0 1305 1299 45.05% 19.92% 35.03%+0.22 +10.7 22
2019-10-12 @ Cliftonville L 0-141.0 1299 1305 35.03% 19.92% 45.05%-0.22 -10.7 15
2019-10-12 Linfield L 1-435.0 1125 1391 14.51% 18.29% 67.21%-1.57 -11.2 14
2019-10-12 @ Dungannon Swifts W 4-135.0 1391 1125 67.21% 18.29% 14.51%+1.57 +11.2 18
2019-10-12 Warrenpoint Town W 3-026.2 1382 1003 78.32% 15.45% 6.22%+2.69 +5.6 23
2019-10-12 @ Coleraine L 0-326.2 1003 1382 6.22% 15.45% 78.32%-2.69 -5.6 3
2019-10-18 Glentoran L 2-355.4 1288 1247 49.82% 19.80% 30.38%+0.46 -12.8 15
2019-10-18 @ Larne W 3-255.4 1247 1288 30.38% 19.80% 49.82%-0.46 +12.8 20
2019-10-19 Ballymena United W 2-142.9 1403 1288 58.51% 19.31% 22.18%+0.94 +6.8 21
2019-10-19 @ Linfield L 1-242.9 1288 1403 22.18% 19.31% 58.51%-0.94 -6.8 16
2019-10-19 Cliftonville L 0-330.0 1068 1315 15.87% 18.53% 65.60%-1.45 -14.5 5
2019-10-19 @ Institute Drumahoe W 3-030.0 1315 1068 65.60% 18.53% 15.87%+1.45 +14.5 25
2019-10-19 Coleraine L 0-244.9 1408 1388 47.02% 19.88% 33.10%+0.32 -25.6 26
2019-10-19 @ Crusaders W 2-044.9 1388 1408 33.10% 19.88% 47.02%-0.32 +25.6 26
2019-10-19 Dungannon Swifts W 1-041.2 1095 1114 41.60% 19.95% 38.44%+0.06 +11.5 9
2019-10-19 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-141.2 1114 1095 38.44% 19.95% 41.60%-0.06 -11.5 14
2019-10-19 Glenavon L 1-339.7 998 1159 23.48% 19.42% 57.11%-0.88 -12.4 3
2019-10-19 @ Warrenpoint Town W 3-139.7 1159 998 57.11% 19.42% 23.48%+0.88 +12.4 10
2019-10-22 Warrenpoint Town W 7-025.3 1409 985 80.43% 14.61% 4.97%+2.99 +9.8 24
2019-10-22 @ Linfield L 0-725.3 985 1409 4.97% 14.61% 80.43%-2.99 -9.8 3
2019-10-25 Ballymena United W 3-145.0 1260 1282 41.26% 19.95% 38.79%+0.04 +18.9 23
2019-10-25 @ Glentoran L 1-345.0 1282 1260 38.79% 19.95% 41.26%-0.04 -18.9 16
2019-10-26 Crusaders D 2-260.5 1172 1382 18.83% 18.96% 62.22%-1.21 +2.2 11
2019-10-26 @ Glenavon D 2-260.5 1382 1172 62.22% 18.96% 18.83%+1.21 -2.2 27
2019-10-26 Dungannon Swifts W 5-028.2 1330 1103 68.92% 17.99% 13.09%+1.69 +19.4 28
2019-10-26 @ Cliftonville L 0-528.2 1103 1330 13.09% 17.99% 68.92%-1.69 -19.4 14
2019-10-26 Institute Drumahoe D 1-154.6 1276 1054 68.51% 18.06% 13.43%+1.65 -3.8 16
2019-10-26 @ Larne D 1-154.6 1054 1276 13.43% 18.06% 68.51%-1.65 +3.8 6
2019-10-26 Linfield W 1-045.0 1413 1419 43.49% 19.94% 36.57%+0.15 +11.0 29
2019-10-26 @ Coleraine L 0-145.0 1419 1413 36.57% 19.94% 43.49%-0.15 -11.0 24
2019-10-26 Warrenpoint Town W 1-035.5 1107 975 60.29% 19.15% 20.56%+1.05 +6.7 12
2019-10-26 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-135.5 975 1107 20.56% 19.15% 60.29%-1.05 -6.7 3
2019-11-02 Carrick Rangers W 2-029.7 1408 1113 73.63% 16.94% 9.43%+2.14 +6.0 27
2019-11-02 @ Linfield L 0-229.7 1113 1408 9.43% 16.94% 73.63%-2.14 -6.0 12
2019-11-02 Cliftonville L 1-241.7 1174 1349 22.11% 19.30% 58.59%-0.97 -6.8 11
2019-11-02 @ Glenavon W 2-141.7 1349 1174 58.59% 19.30% 22.11%+0.97 +6.8 31
2019-11-02 Coleraine L 0-229.9 1083 1424 10.09% 17.17% 72.74%-2.07 -6.4 14
2019-11-02 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-029.9 1424 1083 72.74% 17.17% 10.09%+2.07 +6.4 32
2019-11-02 Glentoran L 0-427.5 969 1279 11.73% 17.66% 70.61%-1.87 -14.1 3
2019-11-02 @ Warrenpoint Town W 4-027.5 1279 969 70.61% 17.66% 11.73%+1.87 +14.1 26
2019-11-02 Institute Drumahoe D 1-155.3 1380 1058 75.30% 16.47% 8.23%+2.32 -4.7 28
2019-11-02 @ Crusaders D 1-155.3 1058 1380 8.23% 16.47% 75.30%-2.32 +4.7 7
2019-11-02 Larne L 0-339.0 1263 1272 42.99% 19.94% 37.07%+0.12 -34.4 16
2019-11-02 @ Ballymena United W 3-039.0 1272 1263 37.07% 19.94% 42.99%-0.12 +34.4 19
2019-11-09 Carrick Rangers L 1-252.4 1228 1107 59.23% 19.25% 21.53%+0.99 -15.8 16
2019-11-09 @ Ballymena United W 2-152.4 1107 1228 21.53% 19.25% 59.23%-0.99 +15.8 15
2019-11-09 Glenavon W 4-028.1 1431 1167 71.58% 17.44% 10.98%+1.93 +13.2 35
2019-11-09 @ Coleraine L 0-428.1 1167 1431 10.98% 17.44% 71.58%-1.93 -13.2 11
2019-11-09 Glentoran D 1-154.5 1062 1293 17.13% 18.73% 64.14%-1.34 +3.2 8
2019-11-09 @ Institute Drumahoe D 1-154.5 1293 1062 64.14% 18.73% 17.13%+1.34 -3.2 27
2019-11-09 Warrenpoint Town W 4-025.0 1356 955 79.40% 15.04% 5.56%+2.84 +6.5 34
2019-11-09 @ Cliftonville L 0-425.0 955 1356 5.56% 15.04% 79.40%-2.84 -6.5 3
2019-11-11 Crusaders D 0-051.5 1306 1375 34.59% 19.91% 45.50%-0.27 +0.8 20
2019-11-11 @ Larne D 0-051.5 1375 1306 45.50% 19.91% 34.59%+0.27 -0.8 29
2019-11-15 Crusaders L 1-337.5 1123 1375 15.53% 18.47% 65.99%-1.48 -8.5 15
2019-11-15 @ Carrick Rangers W 3-137.5 1375 1123 65.99% 18.47% 15.53%+1.48 +8.5 32
2019-11-16 Ballymena United W 1-035.7 1362 1212 62.20% 18.96% 18.84%+1.18 +6.2 37
2019-11-16 @ Cliftonville L 0-135.7 1212 1362 18.84% 18.96% 62.20%-1.18 -6.2 16
2019-11-16 Coleraine W 3-155.6 948 1444 4.68% 14.38% 80.94%-3.09 +36.3 6
2019-11-16 @ Warrenpoint Town L 1-355.6 1444 948 80.94% 14.38% 4.68%+3.09 -36.3 35
2019-11-16 Larne L 0-134.6 1077 1307 17.17% 18.73% 64.09%-1.34 -5.7 14
2019-11-16 @ Dungannon Swifts W 1-034.6 1307 1077 64.09% 18.73% 17.17%+1.34 +5.7 23
2019-11-16 Linfield L 0-327.9 1065 1414 9.73% 17.05% 73.22%-2.12 -9.0 8
2019-11-16 @ Institute Drumahoe W 3-027.9 1414 1065 73.22% 17.05% 9.73%+2.12 +9.0 30
2019-11-22 Linfield W 1-050.1 1154 1423 14.30% 18.25% 67.46%-1.59 +18.9 14
2019-11-22 @ Glenavon L 0-150.1 1423 1154 67.46% 18.25% 14.30%+1.59 -19.0 30
2019-11-23 Carrick Rangers W 3-242.4 1408 1115 73.53% 16.97% 9.50%+2.12 +2.9 38
2019-11-23 @ Coleraine L 2-342.4 1115 1408 9.50% 16.97% 73.53%-2.12 -2.8 15
2019-11-23 Cliftonville D 1-155.6 1313 1369 36.39% 19.94% 43.68%-0.18 +0.5 24
2019-11-23 @ Larne D 1-155.6 1369 1313 43.68% 19.94% 36.39%+0.18 -0.5 38
2019-11-23 Crusaders L 0-130.9 984 1383 7.61% 16.19% 76.20%-2.45 -2.5 6
2019-11-23 @ Warrenpoint Town W 1-030.9 1383 984 76.20% 16.19% 7.61%+2.45 +2.5 35
2019-11-23 Dungannon Swifts W 6-131.3 1290 1071 68.25% 18.11% 13.64%+1.63 +16.7 30
2019-11-23 @ Glentoran L 1-631.3 1071 1290 13.64% 18.11% 68.25%-1.63 -16.7 14
2019-11-23 Institute Drumahoe D 1-154.3 1206 1056 62.17% 18.96% 18.87%+1.18 -2.9 17
2019-11-23 @ Ballymena United D 1-154.3 1056 1206 18.87% 18.96% 62.17%-1.18 +2.9 9
2019-11-26 Institute Drumahoe W 3-139.3 1173 1059 58.43% 19.31% 22.25%+0.94 +11.8 17
2019-11-26 @ Glenavon L 1-339.3 1059 1173 22.25% 19.31% 58.43%-0.94 -11.8 9
2019-11-26 Linfield L 1-241.3 1203 1404 19.68% 19.06% 61.26%-1.14 -6.1 17
2019-11-26 @ Ballymena United W 2-141.3 1404 1203 61.26% 19.06% 19.68%+1.14 +6.1 33
2019-11-30 Ballymena United W 2-153.2 982 1197 18.41% 18.90% 62.69%-1.24 +16.6 9
2019-11-30 @ Warrenpoint Town L 1-253.2 1197 982 62.69% 18.90% 18.41%+1.24 -16.7 17
2019-11-30 Coleraine W 2-048.9 1048 1411 9.07% 16.81% 74.13%-2.22 +39.0 12
2019-11-30 @ Institute Drumahoe L 0-248.9 1411 1048 74.13% 16.81% 9.07%+2.22 -39.0 38
2019-11-30 Crusaders L 1-630.3 1054 1386 10.59% 17.33% 72.08%-2.00 -13.0 14
2019-11-30 @ Dungannon Swifts W 6-130.3 1386 1054 72.08% 17.33% 10.59%+2.00 +13.0 38
2019-11-30 Glenavon W 6-244.8 1112 1185 34.06% 19.90% 46.04%-0.30 +33.7 18
2019-11-30 @ Carrick Rangers L 2-644.8 1185 1112 46.04% 19.90% 34.06%+0.30 -33.7 17
2019-11-30 Glentoran L 0-244.5 1368 1307 52.41% 19.69% 27.90%+0.59 -28.2 38
2019-11-30 @ Cliftonville W 2-044.5 1307 1368 27.90% 19.69% 52.41%-0.59 +28.2 33
2019-11-30 Larne W 1-038.8 1410 1313 56.59% 19.45% 23.96%+0.83 +7.7 36
2019-11-30 @ Linfield L 0-138.8 1313 1410 23.96% 19.45% 56.59%-0.83 -7.7 24
2019-12-07 Ballymena United L 0-150.3 1399 1181 68.20% 18.12% 13.68%+1.63 -19.2 38
2019-12-07 @ Crusaders W 1-050.3 1181 1399 13.68% 18.12% 68.20%-1.63 +19.2 20
2019-12-07 Cliftonville W 1-040.1 1418 1340 54.37% 19.59% 26.04%+0.70 +8.3 39
2019-12-07 @ Linfield L 0-140.1 1340 1418 26.04% 19.59% 54.37%-0.70 -8.3 38
2019-12-07 Glentoran D 2-261.5 1372 1335 49.27% 19.81% 30.92%+0.43 -0.9 39
2019-12-07 @ Coleraine D 2-261.5 1335 1372 30.92% 19.81% 49.27%-0.43 +0.9 34
2019-12-07 Institute Drumahoe W 3-033.9 1145 1087 52.06% 19.71% 28.24%+0.57 +24.3 21
2019-12-07 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-333.9 1087 1145 28.24% 19.71% 52.06%-0.57 -24.4 12
2019-12-07 Larne L 1-340.2 1151 1306 24.23% 19.47% 56.29%-0.84 -12.7 17
2019-12-07 @ Glenavon W 3-140.2 1306 1151 56.29% 19.47% 24.23%+0.84 +12.7 27
2019-12-07 Warrenpoint Town W 3-141.8 1041 998 50.04% 19.79% 30.17%+0.47 +15.4 17
2019-12-07 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-341.8 998 1041 30.17% 19.79% 50.04%-0.47 -15.4 9
2019-12-10 Carrick Rangers W 1-041.7 1138 1170 39.82% 19.96% 40.22%-0.02 +11.9 20
2019-12-10 @ Glenavon L 0-141.7 1170 1138 40.22% 19.96% 39.82%+0.02 -11.9 21
2019-12-14 Coleraine D 2-261.3 1318 1371 36.85% 19.94% 43.21%-0.16 +0.3 28
2019-12-14 @ Larne D 2-261.3 1371 1318 43.21% 19.94% 36.85%+0.16 -0.3 40
2019-12-14 Crusaders D 1-156.1 1336 1380 38.06% 19.95% 41.99%-0.10 +0.2 35
2019-12-14 @ Glentoran D 1-156.1 1380 1336 41.99% 19.95% 38.06%+0.10 -0.2 39
2019-12-14 Dungannon Swifts W 3-245.5 1200 1057 61.49% 19.03% 19.47%+1.13 +5.7 23
2019-12-14 @ Ballymena United L 2-345.5 1057 1200 19.47% 19.03% 61.49%-1.13 -5.7 17
2019-12-14 Glenavon L 1-440.3 1062 1150 32.10% 19.85% 48.05%-0.40 -22.9 12
2019-12-14 @ Institute Drumahoe W 4-140.3 1150 1062 48.05% 19.85% 32.10%+0.40 +22.9 23
2019-12-14 Linfield L 0-227.9 983 1426 6.10% 15.38% 78.52%-2.74 -3.8 9
2019-12-14 @ Warrenpoint Town W 2-027.9 1426 983 78.52% 15.38% 6.10%+2.74 +3.8 42
2019-12-20 Glenavon W 2-144.3 1205 1173 48.66% 19.83% 31.51%+0.40 +9.2 26
2019-12-20 @ Ballymena United L 1-244.3 1173 1205 31.51% 19.83% 48.66%-0.40 -9.2 23
2019-12-21 Coleraine W 1-043.9 1332 1370 38.79% 19.95% 41.25%-0.07 +12.2 41
2019-12-21 @ Cliftonville L 0-143.9 1370 1332 41.25% 19.95% 38.79%+0.07 -12.2 40
2019-12-21 Crusaders D 1-157.9 1430 1379 51.04% 19.75% 29.21%+0.52 -1.4 43
2019-12-21 @ Linfield D 1-157.9 1379 1430 29.21% 19.75% 51.04%-0.52 +1.4 40
2019-12-21 Glentoran L 0-136.4 1158 1336 21.84% 19.28% 58.88%-0.99 -7.1 21
2019-12-21 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-036.4 1336 1158 58.88% 19.28% 21.84%+0.99 +7.1 38
2019-12-21 Institute Drumahoe D 2-259.5 1051 1039 45.89% 19.90% 34.20%+0.26 -0.5 18
2019-12-21 @ Dungannon Swifts D 2-259.5 1039 1051 34.20% 19.90% 45.89%-0.26 +0.6 13
2019-12-21 Larne L 0-229.6 979 1319 10.19% 17.20% 72.61%-2.06 -6.5 9
2019-12-21 @ Warrenpoint Town W 2-029.6 1319 979 72.61% 17.20% 10.19%+2.06 +6.5 31
2019-12-26 Ballymena United W 2-033.6 1358 1215 61.57% 19.03% 19.40%+1.14 +12.0 43
2019-12-26 @ Coleraine L 0-233.6 1215 1358 19.40% 19.03% 61.57%-1.14 -12.0 26
2019-12-26 Carrick Rangers D 0-050.6 1325 1151 64.48% 18.68% 16.84%+1.34 -3.6 32
2019-12-26 @ Larne D 0-050.6 1151 1325 16.84% 18.68% 64.48%-1.34 +3.6 22
2019-12-26 Cliftonville L 1-251.7 1381 1344 49.23% 19.82% 30.95%+0.43 -13.3 40
2019-12-26 @ Crusaders W 2-151.7 1344 1381 30.95% 19.82% 49.23%-0.43 +13.3 44
2019-12-26 Dungannon Swifts W 5-031.1 1164 1050 58.42% 19.32% 22.27%+0.94 +31.9 26
2019-12-26 @ Glenavon L 0-531.1 1050 1164 22.27% 19.32% 58.42%-0.94 -31.9 18
2019-12-26 Linfield W 3-042.8 1343 1429 32.39% 19.86% 47.75%-0.38 +37.6 41
2019-12-26 @ Glentoran L 0-342.8 1429 1343 47.75% 19.86% 32.39%+0.38 -37.6 43
2019-12-26 Warrenpoint Town L 0-145.4 1040 973 53.07% 19.66% 27.27%+0.63 -15.1 13
2019-12-26 @ Institute Drumahoe W 1-045.4 973 1040 27.27% 19.66% 53.07%-0.63 +15.1 12
2019-12-28 Ballymena United W 2-032.7 1381 1203 64.82% 18.64% 16.54%+1.36 +10.4 44
2019-12-28 @ Glentoran L 0-232.7 1203 1381 16.54% 18.64% 64.82%-1.36 -10.4 26
2019-12-28 Carrick Rangers L 0-333.5 1025 1154 27.00% 19.65% 53.35%-0.67 -23.4 13
2019-12-28 @ Institute Drumahoe W 3-033.5 1154 1025 53.35% 19.65% 27.00%+0.67 +23.4 25
2019-12-28 Cliftonville L 1-248.1 1321 1357 39.20% 19.96% 40.85%-0.05 -11.0 32
2019-12-28 @ Larne W 2-148.1 1357 1321 40.85% 19.96% 39.20%+0.05 +11.0 47
2019-12-28 Dungannon Swifts W 5-025.7 1367 1019 76.76% 16.01% 7.23%+2.49 +10.6 43
2019-12-28 @ Crusaders L 0-525.7 1019 1367 7.23% 16.01% 76.76%-2.49 -10.6 18
2019-12-28 Linfield D 1-156.8 1370 1391 41.39% 19.95% 38.66%+0.05 -0.2 44
2019-12-28 @ Coleraine D 1-156.8 1391 1370 38.66% 19.95% 41.39%-0.05 +0.2 44
2019-12-28 Warrenpoint Town D 1-154.5 1196 988 67.37% 18.26% 14.37%+1.56 -3.6 27
2019-12-28 @ Glenavon D 1-154.5 988 1196 14.37% 18.26% 67.37%-1.56 +3.6 13
2020-01-01 Coleraine L 0-233.8 1178 1370 20.46% 19.14% 60.40%-1.09 -12.6 25
2020-01-01 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-033.8 1370 1178 60.40% 19.14% 20.46%+1.09 +12.6 47
2020-01-01 Crusaders L 0-426.2 992 1378 8.08% 16.41% 75.51%-2.37 -9.7 13
2020-01-01 @ Warrenpoint Town W 4-026.2 1378 992 75.51% 16.41% 8.08%+2.37 +9.7 46
2020-01-01 Glenavon W 1-034.9 1368 1192 64.65% 18.66% 16.69%+1.35 +5.5 50
2020-01-01 @ Cliftonville L 0-134.9 1192 1368 16.69% 18.66% 64.65%-1.35 -5.5 27
2020-01-01 Glentoran L 0-228.9 1008 1391 8.22% 16.47% 75.31%-2.35 -5.2 18
2020-01-01 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-028.9 1391 1008 75.31% 16.47% 8.22%+2.35 +5.2 47
2020-01-01 Institute Drumahoe W 3-026.1 1391 1001 78.85% 15.25% 5.90%+2.76 +5.3 47
2020-01-01 @ Linfield L 0-326.1 1001 1391 5.90% 15.25% 78.85%-2.76 -5.3 13
2020-01-01 Larne L 2-348.8 1192 1310 28.34% 19.71% 51.95%-0.60 -8.0 26
2020-01-01 @ Ballymena United W 3-248.8 1310 1192 51.95% 19.71% 28.34%+0.60 +8.0 35
2020-01-10 Carrick Rangers W 4-030.3 1318 1165 62.50% 18.93% 18.57%+1.20 +21.9 38
2020-01-10 @ Larne L 0-430.3 1165 1318 18.57% 18.93% 62.50%-1.20 -21.9 25
2020-01-10 Crusaders L 0-145.7 1383 1388 43.61% 19.94% 36.45%+0.15 -12.7 47
2020-01-10 @ Coleraine W 1-045.7 1388 1383 36.45% 19.94% 43.61%-0.15 +12.7 49
2020-01-11 Institute Drumahoe D 2-260.0 1187 996 65.92% 18.48% 15.60%+1.45 -2.6 28
2020-01-11 @ Glenavon D 2-260.0 996 1187 15.60% 18.48% 65.92%-1.45 +2.6 14
2020-01-11 Warrenpoint Town W 2-134.9 1396 982 79.99% 14.79% 5.22%+2.92 +1.6 50
2020-01-11 @ Glentoran L 1-234.9 982 1396 5.22% 14.79% 79.99%-2.92 -1.6 13
2020-01-13 Linfield L 1-250.0 1374 1396 41.10% 19.96% 38.94%+0.04 -11.4 50
2020-01-13 @ Cliftonville W 2-150.0 1396 1374 38.94% 19.96% 41.10%-0.04 +11.4 50
2020-01-18 Cliftonville W 1-048.6 1143 1362 18.09% 18.86% 63.05%-1.26 +17.8 28
2020-01-18 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-148.6 1362 1143 63.05% 18.86% 18.09%+1.26 -17.8 50
2020-01-18 Coleraine L 0-426.1 980 1370 7.95% 16.35% 75.70%-2.39 -9.5 13
2020-01-18 @ Warrenpoint Town W 4-026.1 1370 980 75.70% 16.35% 7.95%+2.39 +9.5 50
2020-01-18 Dungannon Swifts D 0-051.6 1408 1003 79.57% 14.97% 5.46%+2.86 -5.8 51
2020-01-18 @ Linfield D 0-051.6 1003 1408 5.46% 14.97% 79.57%-2.86 +5.8 19
2020-01-18 Glenavon L 0-338.9 1184 1184 44.32% 19.93% 35.76%+0.19 -35.3 26
2020-01-18 @ Ballymena United W 3-038.9 1184 1184 35.76% 19.93% 44.32%-0.19 +35.3 31
2020-01-18 Glentoran L 0-228.6 999 1398 7.59% 16.18% 76.23%-2.45 -4.8 14
2020-01-18 @ Institute Drumahoe W 2-028.6 1398 999 76.23% 16.18% 7.59%+2.45 +4.8 53
2020-01-18 Larne W 3-036.3 1400 1340 52.21% 19.70% 28.09%+0.58 +24.2 52
2020-01-18 @ Crusaders L 0-336.3 1340 1400 28.09% 19.70% 52.21%-0.58 -24.2 38
2020-01-25 Ballymena United W 2-030.3 1425 1149 72.39% 17.25% 10.35%+2.01 +6.6 55
2020-01-25 @ Crusaders L 0-230.3 1149 1425 10.35% 17.25% 72.39%-2.01 -6.6 26
2020-01-25 Glenavon W 8-132.0 1402 1219 65.24% 18.58% 16.18%+1.39 +26.9 54
2020-01-25 @ Linfield L 1-832.0 1219 1402 16.18% 18.58% 65.24%-1.39 -26.9 31
2020-01-25 Glentoran W 2-151.2 1316 1403 32.29% 19.86% 47.85%-0.39 +13.0 41
2020-01-25 @ Larne L 1-251.2 1403 1316 47.85% 19.86% 32.29%+0.39 -13.0 53
2020-01-25 Institute Drumahoe W 2-037.4 1009 994 46.32% 19.89% 33.79%+0.28 +19.5 22
2020-01-25 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-237.4 994 1009 33.79% 19.89% 46.32%-0.28 -19.5 14
2020-01-25 Warrenpoint Town L 1-254.0 1161 971 65.89% 18.49% 15.62%+1.44 -17.5 28
2020-01-25 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-154.0 971 1161 15.62% 18.49% 65.89%-1.44 +17.5 16
2020-01-27 Cliftonville W 1-041.1 1380 1345 49.01% 19.82% 31.17%+0.42 +9.7 53
2020-01-27 @ Coleraine L 0-141.1 1345 1380 31.17% 19.82% 49.01%-0.42 -9.7 50
2020-01-28 Glenavon W 4-029.5 1390 1192 66.48% 18.40% 15.12%+1.49 +18.1 56
2020-01-28 @ Glentoran L 0-429.5 1192 1390 15.12% 18.40% 66.48%-1.49 -18.1 31
2020-01-28 Linfield W 3-150.4 1329 1429 30.58% 19.80% 49.61%-0.47 +23.2 44
2020-01-28 @ Larne L 1-350.4 1429 1329 49.61% 19.80% 30.58%+0.47 -23.2 54
2020-02-04 Carrick Rangers W 3-137.4 1335 1144 66.00% 18.47% 15.53%+1.45 +8.5 53
2020-02-04 @ Cliftonville L 1-337.4 1144 1335 15.53% 18.47% 66.00%-1.45 -8.5 28
2020-02-04 Dungannon Swifts W 2-135.5 1406 1028 78.26% 15.48% 6.26%+2.68 +2.0 57
2020-02-04 @ Linfield L 1-235.5 1028 1406 6.26% 15.48% 78.26%-2.68 -2.0 22
2020-02-08 Carrick Rangers L 0-240.9 1142 1135 45.28% 19.91% 34.80%+0.23 -24.8 26
2020-02-08 @ Ballymena United W 2-040.9 1135 1142 34.80% 19.91% 45.28%-0.23 +24.8 31
2020-02-08 Coleraine L 0-147.2 1408 1389 46.80% 19.88% 33.32%+0.31 -13.5 56
2020-02-08 @ Glentoran W 1-047.2 1389 1408 33.32% 19.88% 46.80%-0.31 +13.5 56
2020-02-08 Crusaders W 2-155.1 1174 1431 15.15% 18.41% 66.44%-1.51 +17.6 34
2020-02-08 @ Glenavon L 1-255.1 1431 1174 66.44% 18.41% 15.15%+1.51 -17.6 55
2020-02-08 Dungannon Swifts D 1-155.1 1343 1026 74.99% 16.56% 8.45%+2.28 -4.7 54
2020-02-08 @ Cliftonville D 1-155.1 1026 1343 8.45% 16.56% 74.99%-2.28 +4.7 23
2020-02-08 Larne L 0-426.3 974 1352 8.43% 16.55% 75.02%-2.31 -10.1 14
2020-02-08 @ Institute Drumahoe W 4-026.3 1352 974 75.02% 16.55% 8.43%+2.31 +10.1 47
2020-02-08 Linfield L 1-235.7 988 1408 6.87% 15.82% 77.32%-2.59 -2.1 16
2020-02-08 @ Warrenpoint Town W 2-135.7 1408 988 77.32% 15.82% 6.87%+2.59 +2.1 60
2020-02-14 Carrick Rangers D 0-051.1 1394 1160 69.45% 17.89% 12.66%+1.73 -4.4 57
2020-02-14 @ Glentoran D 0-051.1 1160 1394 12.66% 17.89% 69.45%-1.73 +4.4 32
2020-02-14 Institute Drumahoe D 2-259.5 986 964 47.27% 19.87% 32.85%+0.33 -0.7 17
2020-02-14 @ Warrenpoint Town D 2-259.5 964 986 32.85% 19.87% 47.27%-0.33 +0.7 15
2020-02-14 Larne L 0-229.8 1031 1362 10.58% 17.32% 72.10%-2.01 -6.7 23
2020-02-14 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-029.8 1362 1031 72.10% 17.32% 10.58%+2.01 +6.7 50
2020-02-14 Linfield L 1-434.5 1118 1410 12.79% 17.92% 69.29%-1.75 -9.9 26
2020-02-14 @ Ballymena United W 4-134.5 1410 1118 69.29% 17.92% 12.79%+1.75 +9.9 63
2020-02-21 Crusaders W 4-039.6 1420 1414 45.14% 19.92% 34.95%+0.23 +38.0 66
2020-02-21 @ Linfield L 0-439.6 1414 1420 34.95% 19.92% 45.14%-0.23 -38.0 55
2020-02-22 Ballymena United D 1-154.9 1339 1108 69.22% 17.93% 12.85%+1.71 -3.9 55
2020-02-22 @ Cliftonville D 1-154.9 1108 1339 12.85% 17.93% 69.22%-1.71 +3.9 27
2020-02-22 Coleraine L 0-425.4 965 1403 6.26% 15.48% 78.26%-2.71 -7.4 15
2020-02-22 @ Institute Drumahoe W 4-025.4 1403 965 78.26% 15.48% 6.26%+2.71 +7.4 59
2020-02-22 Dungannon Swifts L 1-252.8 1164 1024 61.21% 19.06% 19.72%+1.11 -16.3 32
2020-02-22 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-152.8 1024 1164 19.72% 19.06% 61.21%-1.11 +16.3 26
2020-02-22 Glentoran D 2-260.6 1192 1390 19.96% 19.09% 60.95%-1.12 +2.0 35
2020-02-22 @ Glenavon D 2-260.6 1390 1192 60.95% 19.09% 19.96%+1.12 -2.0 58
2020-02-22 Warrenpoint Town W 1-030.2 1369 985 78.56% 15.37% 6.08%+2.72 +2.0 53
2020-02-22 @ Larne L 0-130.2 985 1369 6.08% 15.37% 78.56%-2.72 -2.0 17
2020-03-03 Ballymena United W 1-043.3 1040 1112 34.31% 19.90% 45.78%-0.28 +13.3 29
2020-03-03 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-143.3 1112 1040 45.78% 19.90% 34.31%+0.28 -13.3 27
2020-03-03 Cliftonville D 0-051.9 1376 1335 49.75% 19.80% 30.45%+0.45 -1.4 56
2020-03-03 @ Crusaders D 0-051.9 1335 1376 30.45% 19.80% 49.75%-0.45 +1.4 56
2020-03-03 Glenavon W 2-139.3 1410 1194 68.05% 18.15% 13.80%+1.62 +4.4 62
2020-03-03 @ Coleraine L 1-239.3 1194 1410 13.80% 18.15% 68.05%-1.62 -4.4 35
2020-03-07 Cliftonville L 0-244.8 1388 1336 51.13% 19.75% 29.13%+0.53 -27.5 58
2020-03-07 @ Glentoran W 2-044.8 1336 1388 29.13% 19.75% 51.13%-0.53 +27.5 59
2020-03-07 Coleraine L 0-230.4 1098 1415 11.39% 17.56% 71.05%-1.91 -7.2 27
2020-03-07 @ Ballymena United W 2-030.4 1415 1098 71.05% 17.56% 11.39%+1.91 +7.2 65
2020-03-07 Glenavon W 1-034.8 1371 1190 65.12% 18.60% 16.28%+1.39 +5.4 56
2020-03-07 @ Larne L 0-134.8 1190 1371 16.28% 18.60% 65.12%-1.39 -5.4 35
2020-03-07 Institute Drumahoe W 2-134.8 1374 958 80.10% 14.75% 5.15%+2.94 +1.6 59
2020-03-07 @ Crusaders L 1-234.8 958 1374 5.15% 14.75% 80.10%-2.94 -1.6 15
2020-03-07 Linfield L 0-231.1 1148 1458 11.76% 17.66% 70.58%-1.86 -7.5 32
2020-03-07 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-031.1 1458 1148 70.58% 17.66% 11.76%+1.86 +7.5 69
2020-03-07 Warrenpoint Town D 4-465.8 1054 983 53.46% 19.64% 26.90%+0.65 -0.9 30
2020-03-07 @ Dungannon Swifts D 4-465.8 983 1054 26.90% 19.64% 53.46%-0.65 +0.9 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-11-16 4.68% @ Warrenpoint Town 948 3 Coleraine 1444 1
2 2019-11-30 9.07% @ Institute Drumahoe 1048 2 Coleraine 1411 0
3 2019-12-07 13.68% Ballymena United 1181 1 @ Crusaders 1399 0
4 2019-11-22 14.30% @ Glenavon 1154 1 Linfield 1423 0
5 2020-02-08 15.15% @ Glenavon 1174 2 Crusaders 1431 1
6 2020-01-25 15.62% Warrenpoint Town 971 2 @ Carrick Rangers 1161 1
7 2020-01-18 18.09% @ Carrick Rangers 1143 1 Cliftonville 1362 0
8 2019-11-30 18.41% @ Warrenpoint Town 982 2 Ballymena United 1197 1
9 2020-02-22 19.72% Dungannon Swifts 1024 2 @ Carrick Rangers 1164 1
10 2019-11-09 21.53% Carrick Rangers 1107 2 @ Ballymena United 1228 1
11 2019-10-05 24.77% @ Warrenpoint Town 990 4 Dungannon Swifts 1139 3
12 2019-08-17 25.87% Coleraine 1261 4 @ Linfield 1340 2
13 2019-08-24 26.46% Glentoran 1216 2 @ Ballymena United 1291 1
14 2019-12-26 27.27% Warrenpoint Town 973 1 @ Institute Drumahoe 1040 0
15 2019-11-30 27.90% Glentoran 1307 2 @ Cliftonville 1368 0
16 2020-03-07 29.13% Cliftonville 1336 2 @ Glentoran 1388 0
17 2019-08-24 29.50% @ Dungannon Swifts 1191 2 Glenavon 1300 1
18 2019-10-18 30.38% Glentoran 1247 3 @ Larne 1288 2
19 2020-01-28 30.58% @ Larne 1329 3 Linfield 1429 1
20 2019-12-26 30.95% Cliftonville 1344 2 @ Crusaders 1381 1
21 2019-08-17 31.82% Carrick Rangers 1109 2 @ Institute Drumahoe 1139 0
22 2020-01-25 32.29% @ Larne 1316 2 Glentoran 1403 1
23 2019-12-26 32.39% @ Glentoran 1343 3 Linfield 1429 0
24 2019-10-19 33.10% Coleraine 1388 2 @ Crusaders 1408 0
25 2020-02-08 33.32% Coleraine 1389 1 @ Glentoran 1408 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-04 49.74 @ Larne 6 1249 49.69% Glenavon 0 1209 30.51% 19.80%
2 2019-08-10 47.65 @ Larne 6 1202 51.26% Warrenpoint Town 0 1150 29.00% 19.74%
3 2019-08-30 46.87 Coleraine 4 1280 34.95% @ Glenavon 0 1286 45.13% 19.92%
4 2019-09-28 45.99 @ Linfield 7 1356 57.07% Glenavon 0 1255 23.51% 19.42%
5 2019-11-30 39.01 @ Institute Drumahoe 2 1048 9.07% Coleraine 0 1411 74.13% 16.81%
6 2020-02-21 38.05 @ Linfield 4 1420 45.14% Crusaders 0 1414 34.95% 19.92%
7 2019-12-26 37.65 @ Glentoran 3 1343 32.39% Linfield 0 1429 47.75% 19.86%
8 2019-11-16 36.28 @ Warrenpoint Town 3 948 4.68% Coleraine 1 1444 80.94% 14.38%
9 2020-01-18 35.34 Glenavon 3 1184 35.76% @ Ballymena United 0 1184 44.32% 19.93%
10 2019-11-02 34.44 Larne 3 1272 37.07% @ Ballymena United 0 1263 42.99% 19.94%
11 2019-11-30 33.71 @ Carrick Rangers 6 1112 34.06% Glenavon 2 1185 46.04% 19.90%
12 2019-09-14 33.07 Cliftonville 4 1267 50.69% @ Dungannon Swifts 0 1159 29.55% 19.76%
13 2019-12-26 31.86 @ Glenavon 5 1164 58.42% Dungannon Swifts 0 1050 22.27% 19.32%
14 2019-09-07 28.71 @ Coleraine 5 1327 61.09% Dungannon Swifts 0 1188 19.84% 19.08%
15 2019-11-30 28.16 Glentoran 2 1307 27.90% @ Cliftonville 0 1368 52.41% 19.69%
16 2019-09-14 28.03 Carrick Rangers 3 1119 46.76% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 1040 33.36% 19.88%
17 2020-03-07 27.54 Cliftonville 2 1336 29.13% @ Glentoran 0 1388 51.13% 19.75%
18 2020-01-25 26.88 @ Linfield 8 1402 65.24% Glenavon 1 1219 16.18% 18.58%
19 2019-08-17 26.21 Carrick Rangers 2 1109 31.82% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 1139 48.34% 19.84%
20 2019-09-02 25.76 @ Glentoran 4 1231 58.52% Institute Drumahoe 0 1117 22.18% 19.31%
21 2019-10-19 25.59 Coleraine 2 1388 33.10% @ Crusaders 0 1408 47.02% 19.88%
22 2020-02-08 24.78 Carrick Rangers 2 1135 34.80% @ Ballymena United 0 1142 45.28% 19.91%
23 2019-12-07 24.36 @ Carrick Rangers 3 1145 52.06% Institute Drumahoe 0 1087 28.24% 19.71%
24 2020-01-18 24.25 @ Crusaders 3 1400 52.21% Larne 0 1340 28.09% 19.70%
25 2019-09-07 23.50 Crusaders 6 1374 68.58% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 1091 13.37% 18.05%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-03-07 65.8 @ Dungannon Swifts 4 1054 53.46% Warrenpoint Town 4 983 26.90% 19.64%
2 2019-12-07 61.5 @ Coleraine 2 1372 49.27% Glentoran 2 1335 30.92% 19.81%
3 2019-12-14 61.3 @ Larne 2 1318 36.85% Coleraine 2 1371 43.21% 19.94%
4 2019-08-24 60.6 @ Crusaders 2 1359 59.02% Larne 2 1240 21.71% 19.27%
5 2020-02-22 60.6 @ Glenavon 2 1192 19.96% Glentoran 2 1390 60.95% 19.09%
6 2019-10-26 60.5 @ Glenavon 2 1172 18.83% Crusaders 2 1382 62.22% 18.96%
7 2020-01-11 60.0 @ Glenavon 2 1187 65.92% Institute Drumahoe 2 996 15.60% 18.48%
8 2019-08-13 59.9 @ Glentoran 2 1238 41.10% Coleraine 2 1261 38.95% 19.96%
9 2019-08-10 59.8 @ Dungannon Swifts 2 1157 28.54% Ballymena United 2 1274 51.74% 19.72%
10 2019-10-05 59.5 @ Warrenpoint Town 4 990 24.77% Dungannon Swifts 3 1139 55.72% 19.51%
11 2019-12-21 59.5 @ Dungannon Swifts 2 1051 45.89% Institute Drumahoe 2 1039 34.20% 19.90%
12 2020-02-14 59.5 @ Warrenpoint Town 2 986 47.27% Institute Drumahoe 2 964 32.85% 19.87%
13 2019-12-21 57.9 @ Linfield 1 1430 51.04% Crusaders 1 1379 29.21% 19.75%
14 2019-12-28 56.8 @ Coleraine 1 1370 41.39% Linfield 1 1391 38.66% 19.95%
15 2019-12-14 56.1 @ Glentoran 1 1336 38.06% Crusaders 1 1380 41.99% 19.95%
16 2019-10-12 55.9 @ Ballymena United 1 1287 27.80% Crusaders 1 1409 52.51% 19.69%
17 2019-11-16 55.6 @ Warrenpoint Town 3 948 4.68% Coleraine 1 1444 80.94% 14.38%
18 2019-11-23 55.6 @ Larne 1 1313 36.39% Cliftonville 1 1369 43.68% 19.94%
19 2019-10-18 55.4 Glentoran 3 1247 30.38% @ Larne 2 1288 49.82% 19.80%
20 2019-09-14 55.3 @ Ballymena United 1 1300 36.41% Coleraine 1 1355 43.65% 19.94%
21 2019-11-02 55.3 @ Crusaders 1 1380 75.30% Institute Drumahoe 1 1058 8.23% 16.47%
22 2020-02-08 55.1 @ Glenavon 2 1174 15.15% Crusaders 1 1431 66.44% 18.41%
23 2020-02-08 55.1 @ Cliftonville 1 1343 74.99% Dungannon Swifts 1 1026 8.45% 16.56%
24 2020-02-22 54.9 @ Cliftonville 1 1339 69.22% Ballymena United 1 1108 12.85% 17.93%
25 2019-08-09 54.7 @ Glenavon 1 1314 54.31% Glentoran 1 1236 26.10% 19.59%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-11-09 25.0 @ Cliftonville 4 1356 79.40% Warrenpoint Town 0 955 5.56% 15.04%
2 2019-10-22 25.3 @ Linfield 7 1409 80.43% Warrenpoint Town 0 985 4.97% 14.61%
3 2020-02-22 25.4 Coleraine 4 1403 78.26% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 965 6.26% 15.48%
4 2019-12-28 25.7 @ Crusaders 5 1367 76.76% Dungannon Swifts 0 1019 7.23% 16.01%
5 2020-01-01 26.1 @ Linfield 3 1391 78.85% Institute Drumahoe 0 1001 5.90% 15.25%
6 2020-01-18 26.1 Coleraine 4 1370 75.70% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 980 7.95% 16.35%
7 2019-10-12 26.2 @ Coleraine 3 1382 78.32% Warrenpoint Town 0 1003 6.22% 15.45%
8 2020-01-01 26.2 Crusaders 4 1378 75.51% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 992 8.08% 16.41%
9 2020-02-08 26.3 Larne 4 1352 75.02% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 974 8.43% 16.55%
10 2019-11-02 27.5 Glentoran 4 1279 70.61% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 969 11.73% 17.66%
11 2019-11-16 27.9 Linfield 3 1414 73.22% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 1065 9.73% 17.05%
12 2019-12-14 27.9 Linfield 2 1426 78.52% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 983 6.10% 15.38%
13 2019-09-07 28.1 @ Ballymena United 4 1284 68.99% Warrenpoint Town 0 1056 13.04% 17.98%
14 2019-11-09 28.1 @ Coleraine 4 1431 71.58% Glenavon 0 1167 10.98% 17.44%
15 2019-10-26 28.2 @ Cliftonville 5 1330 68.92% Dungannon Swifts 0 1103 13.09% 17.99%
16 2019-08-13 28.4 @ Crusaders 4 1323 68.40% Warrenpoint Town 0 1102 13.51% 18.08%
17 2019-09-07 28.6 Crusaders 6 1374 68.58% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 1091 13.37% 18.05%
18 2020-01-18 28.6 Glentoran 2 1398 76.23% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 999 7.59% 16.18%
19 2020-01-01 28.9 Glentoran 2 1391 75.31% @ Dungannon Swifts 0 1008 8.22% 16.47%
20 2020-01-28 29.5 @ Glentoran 4 1390 66.48% Glenavon 0 1192 15.12% 18.40%
21 2019-12-21 29.6 Larne 2 1319 72.61% @ Warrenpoint Town 0 979 10.19% 17.20%
22 2019-11-02 29.7 @ Linfield 2 1408 73.63% Carrick Rangers 0 1113 9.43% 16.94%
23 2020-02-14 29.8 Larne 2 1362 72.10% @ Dungannon Swifts 0 1031 10.58% 17.32%
24 2019-11-02 29.9 Coleraine 2 1424 72.74% @ Dungannon Swifts 0 1083 10.09% 17.17%
25 2019-10-19 30.0 Cliftonville 3 1315 65.60% @ Institute Drumahoe 0 1068 15.87% 18.53%