1978 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Start

33 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Lyn Oslo

11 pts

Steinkjer · 11 pts

Molde · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Start

6.27 points above expected

33 points · 26.73 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

8.42 points below expected

11 points · 19.42 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Start Champion	22	13	7	2	33	30	13	+17	26.73	+6.27
2	Lillestrom	22	11	9	2	31	45	22	+23	29.77	+1.23
3	Viking	22	12	7	3	31	42	22	+20	25.61	+5.39
4	Skeid	22	12	2	8	26	38	33	+5	22.74	+3.26
5	Brann	22	11	3	8	25	52	42	+10	22.65	+2.35
6	Valerenga	22	9	6	7	24	44	34	+10	24.23	-0.23
7	Bryne	22	7	8	7	22	27	30	-3	21.05	+0.95
8	Moss	22	8	4	10	20	39	38	+1	20.77	-0.77
9	Bodo Glimt	22	6	6	10	18	37	37	0	18.17	-0.17
10	Molde Relegated	22	5	2	15	12	36	58	-22	15.45	-3.45
11	Lyn Oslo Relegated	22	3	5	14	11	23	53	-30	19.42	-8.42
12	Steinkjer Relegated	22	1	9	12	11	20	51	-31	17.41	-6.41

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Start	33	26.73	+6.27
2	Viking	31	25.61	+5.39
3	Skeid	26	22.74	+3.26
4	Brann	25	22.65	+2.35
5	Lillestrom	31	29.77	+1.23

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	11	19.42	-8.42
2	Steinkjer	11	17.41	-6.41
3	Molde	12	15.45	-3.45
4	Moss	20	20.77	-0.77
5	Valerenga	24	24.23	-0.23

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	4	Jun 11 – Jul 30	1 in 28
2	Molde	2	Sep 4 – Sep 10	1 in 24
3	Bryne	3	May 7 – May 24	1 in 23
4	Start	3	May 4 – May 15	1 in 19
5	Skeid	4	Sep 23 – Oct 15	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	8	Aug 20 – Oct 15	1 in 250
2	Bodo Glimt	6	May 15 – Jun 18	1 in 89
3	Valerenga	3	Aug 14 – Sep 3	1 in 52
4	Molde	4	May 7 – May 28	1 in 24
5	Skeid	3	Sep 4 – Sep 17	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bodo Glimt	9	Jun 21 – Sep 24	1 in 316
2	Lillestrom	18	May 8 – Oct 8	1 in 52
3	Start	13	May 27 – Sep 24	1 in 35
4	Bryne	7	Jun 15 – Sep 3	1 in 35
5	Moss	4	Jun 4 – Jun 24	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	14	Jun 12 – Oct 15	1 in 105
2	Bodo Glimt	11	Apr 23 – Jun 21	1 in 39
3	Valerenga	5	Aug 7 – Sep 10	1 in 31
4	Steinkjer	15	Jun 4 – Oct 15	1 in 27
5	Bryne	7	May 28 – Aug 6	1 in 27

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Start	1440	33	-4	7	6.6	+0.4
Viking	1431	31	+52	9	6.4	+2.6
Lillestrom	1456	31	-26	6	7.4	-1.4
Skeid	1327	26	-2	8	6.3	+1.7
Brann	1300	25	+10	6	4.9	+1.1
Valerenga	1372	24	+42	7	5.2	+1.8
Bryne	1236	22	-39	2	4.0	-2.0
Moss	1274	20	-12	6	5.8	+0.2
Bodo Glimt	1344	18	+104	5	4.2	+0.8
Molde	1183	12	+1	3	3.5	-0.5
Steinkjer	1081	11	-30	1	2.7	-1.7
Lyn Oslo	1066	11	-97	0	2.9	-2.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BG	BRA	BRY	LIL	LO	MOL	MOS	SKE	STA	STE	VAL	VIK
Bodo Glimt	—	1-0-1 2.15	0-1-1 2.64	0-1-1 1.49	1-1-0 2.13	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.08	0-1-1 1.60	1-1-0 2.72	0-1-1 1.91	0-0-2 2.03
Brann	1-0-1 3.31	—	2-0-0 2.38	0-0-2 2.12	2-0-0 3.50	1-0-1 3.86	2-0-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.78	1-1-0 1.72	1-1-0 3.06	0-0-2 2.13	0-1-1 2.44
Bryne	1-1-0 2.81	0-0-2 3.07	—	0-1-1 1.79	2-0-0 2.76	1-0-1 3.80	0-2-0 3.07	0-1-1 2.42	0-1-1 2.12	2-0-0 3.21	1-1-0 2.04	0-1-1 1.83
Lillestrom	1-1-0 3.98	2-0-0 3.34	1-1-0 3.67	—	1-1-0 4.04	2-0-0 4.50	0-2-0 4.08	2-0-0 3.40	0-1-1 3.26	2-0-0 4.12	0-1-1 3.51	0-2-0 3.29
Lyn Oslo	0-1-1 3.33	0-0-2 1.96	0-0-2 2.69	0-1-1 1.44	—	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.11	0-0-2 1.74	0-2-0 2.92	0-1-1 2.57	0-0-2 1.60
Molde	1-0-1 2.32	1-0-1 1.62	1-0-1 1.67	0-0-2 1.00	1-0-1 2.29	—	1-0-1 1.53	0-0-2 1.97	0-0-2 1.54	0-1-1 2.69	0-1-1 1.44	0-0-2 1.92
Moss	1-0-1 2.83	0-0-2 2.46	0-2-0 2.39	0-2-0 1.40	1-0-1 3.03	1-0-1 3.94	—	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 1.94	2-0-0 3.22	1-0-1 2.33	1-0-1 2.08
Skeid	1-0-1 3.38	1-0-1 2.68	1-1-0 3.04	0-0-2 2.06	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 3.49	1-0-1 2.91	—	1-0-1 2.11	2-0-0 3.99	1-0-1 2.45	1-1-0 2.31
Start	1-1-0 3.87	0-1-1 3.75	1-1-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.19	2-0-0 3.74	2-0-0 3.94	2-0-0 3.51	1-0-1 3.35	—	0-2-0 3.44	2-0-0 2.96	1-1-0 2.91
Steinkjer	0-1-1 2.74	0-1-1 2.41	0-0-2 2.26	0-0-2 1.37	0-2-0 2.54	1-1-0 2.77	0-0-2 2.24	0-0-2 1.48	0-2-0 2.03	—	0-1-1 1.98	0-1-1 1.70
Valerenga	1-1-0 3.56	2-0-0 3.33	0-1-1 3.41	1-1-0 1.95	1-1-0 2.89	1-1-0 4.03	1-0-1 3.13	1-0-1 3.01	0-0-2 2.49	1-1-0 3.49	—	0-0-2 2.84
Viking	2-0-0 3.43	1-1-0 3.01	1-1-0 3.64	0-2-0 2.16	2-0-0 3.87	2-0-0 3.56	1-0-1 3.37	0-1-1 3.15	0-1-1 2.55	1-1-0 3.78	2-0-0 2.61	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.30	+4.5
Allowed	0.87	-5.4
Differential	0.92	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.58%	5.68%	6.44%	1.14%	1.89%	1.89%	24.62%
1	5.68%	10.61%	5.30%	4.55%	1.14%	1.52%	28.79%
2	6.44%	5.30%	6.06%	4.17%	1.52%	—	23.48%
3	1.14%	4.55%	4.17%	1.52%	1.52%	—	12.88%
4	1.89%	1.14%	1.52%	1.52%	—	—	6.06%
5+	1.89%	1.52%	—	—	—	0.76%	4.17%
Total	24.62%	28.79%	23.48%	12.88%	6.06%	4.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.64	+0.00
SD	1.52	1.52	2.19
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	9	9	+8
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
Total	18.18%	31.82%	27.27%	18.18%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	1.68	+0.00
SD	2.08	1.39	2.20
CV	1.24	0.83	—
Max	8	6	+7
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.91	+0.45
SD	2.32	1.87	3.32
CV	0.98	0.98	—
Max	9	8	+8
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	36.36%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.36	-0.14
SD	1.02	1.33	1.58
CV	0.83	0.97	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	45.45%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	1.00	+1.05
SD	1.29	0.93	1.59
CV	0.63	0.93	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	9.09%	9.09%	50.00%
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	18.18%	31.82%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	2.41	-1.36
SD	1.29	1.82	2.32
CV	1.23	0.75	—
Max	4	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	—	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
Total	9.09%	9.09%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	2.64	-1.00
SD	1.68	1.40	2.05
CV	1.03	0.53	—
Max	6	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	—	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.73	+0.05
SD	1.63	1.24	2.06
CV	0.92	0.72	—
Max	7	4	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	13.64%	—	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	18.18%	27.27%	13.64%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	1.50	+0.23
SD	1.28	1.34	2.00
CV	0.74	0.89	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
1	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
2	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
3	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	63.64%	27.27%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	0.59	+0.77
SD	0.90	1.05	1.11
CV	0.66	1.78	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
1	—	22.73%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	31.82%	31.82%	13.64%	—	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.91	2.32	-1.41
SD	0.97	2.17	2.38
CV	1.07	0.94	—
Max	4	9	+2
Min	0	0	-8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	31.82%	27.27%	22.73%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.55	+0.45
SD	1.41	1.06	1.68
CV	0.71	0.68	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	40.91%
3	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	31.82%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.00	+0.91
SD	1.31	0.93	1.80
CV	0.68	0.93	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lillestrom	1456	31	29.77	+1.23	65.0%	21	23	27	30	32	35	38
Start	1440	33	26.73	+6.27	95.0%	18	20	24	26	29	33	36
Viking	1431	31	25.61	+5.39	96.0%	16	20	23	25	28	31	34
Valerenga	1372	24	24.23	-0.23	52.0%	14	18	22	24	27	31	33
Bodo Glimt	1344	18	18.17	-0.17	52.0%	9	12	15	18	21	24	28
Skeid	1327	26	22.74	+3.26	80.0%	14	16	20	22	25	29	33
Brann	1300	25	22.65	+2.35	79.0%	14	16	20	22	25	29	32
Moss	1274	20	20.77	-0.77	48.0%	12	14	18	21	24	27	30
Bryne	1236	22	21.05	+0.95	64.0%	14	15	18	21	24	27	29
Molde	1183	12	15.45	-3.45	23.0%	6	10	13	15	18	22	25
Steinkjer	1081	11	17.41	-6.41	7.0%	8	11	15	18	20	23	25
Lyn Oslo	1066	11	19.42	-8.42	3.0%	10	13	17	19	22	27	29

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.06%

No Edge

40.15%25.76%34.09%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 21.08 Elo pts.

190 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.45 goals

Neutral

-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.4

One-Team Race

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

20%

Start, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.09/gm

Tight Race

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.03 * Some Luck: 3.03 to 4.54 * Lucky: 4.54 to 6.05 * Wild Swing: 6.05 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.32 * Off: 2.32 to 3.09 * Way Off: 3.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.1 * A Surprise: 1.1 to 1.76 * Several Surprises: 1.76 to 2.42 * Many Surprises: 2.42 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.20 points

Some Luck

03.789

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.00

Pinpoint

01.934

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

96.00%

Viking

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Lyn Oslo

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 3

As Expected

01.13

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.19

Lopsided

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 131.20

1.94

Wide Separation

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

72%

Wide Edge

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 93%

90%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

60%

Frequent

0%51%100%

Blowouts

Expected

15%

Rare

0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.62

Predictable

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.34

Notable Separation

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.20

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.02

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Upset-Prone

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.

Probability calibration

0.76

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.02

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.069

Well Within Noise

00.1480.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Start	20.00%	21.00%	15.00%	14.00%	17.00%	5.00%	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—
Lillestrom	60.00%	17.00%	8.00%	5.00%	4.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Viking	10.00%	21.00%	20.00%	18.00%	11.00%	7.00%	5.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Skeid	3.00%	9.00%	9.00%	12.00%	7.00%	16.00%	16.00%	10.00%	5.00%	7.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Brann	1.00%	12.00%	9.00%	11.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	11.00%	9.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—
Valerenga	6.00%	11.00%	19.00%	12.00%	17.00%	12.00%	9.00%	7.00%	3.00%	—	4.00%	—
Bryne	—	3.00%	6.00%	9.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	16.00%	10.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Moss	—	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	10.00%	9.00%	9.00%	18.00%	14.00%	10.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Bodo Glimt	—	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	3.00%	9.00%	15.00%	10.00%	11.00%	10.00%	27.00%	9.00%
Molde	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	2.00%	9.00%	16.00%	19.00%	46.00%
Lyn Oslo	—	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	7.00%	7.00%	16.00%	15.00%	15.00%	11.00%	11.00%
Steinkjer	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	4.00%	8.00%	9.00%	14.00%	25.00%	12.00%	26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lillestrom	100%	—
Start	99.00%	1.00%
Viking	97.00%	3.00%
Valerenga	96.00%	4.00%
Brann	92.00%	8.00%
Skeid	87.00%	13.00%
Bryne	78.00%	22.00%
Moss	78.00%	22.00%
Lyn Oslo	63.00%	37.00%
Bodo Glimt	54.00%	46.00%
Steinkjer	37.00%	63.00%
Molde	19.00%	81.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1978-04-23	Start	L 0-1	42.2	1248	1279	36.48%	27.32%	36.20%	-0.05	-15.2	0
1978-04-23	@ Bryne	W 1-0	42.2	1279	1248	36.20%	27.32%	36.48%	+0.05	+15.2	2
1978-04-23	Skeid	W 3-1	41.3	1364	1302	48.70%	27.13%	24.18%	+0.44	+18.2	2
1978-04-23	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	41.3	1302	1364	24.18%	27.13%	48.70%	-0.44	-18.2	0
1978-04-23	Bodo Glimt	D 0-0	48.5	1360	1292	49.34%	27.10%	23.56%	+0.47	-2.4	1
1978-04-23	@ Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	48.5	1292	1360	23.56%	27.10%	49.34%	-0.47	+2.4	1
1978-04-23	Viking	L 0-2	39.5	1258	1289	36.40%	27.32%	36.28%	-0.05	-28.5	0
1978-04-23	@ Molde	W 2-0	39.5	1289	1258	36.28%	27.32%	36.40%	+0.05	+28.5	2
1978-04-23	Valerenga	W 1-0	42.4	1230	1269	35.30%	27.32%	37.38%	-0.09	+15.4	2
1978-04-23	@ Moss	L 0-1	42.4	1269	1230	37.38%	27.32%	35.30%	+0.09	-15.4	0
1978-04-23	Brann	D 1-1	51.8	1348	1272	50.21%	27.06%	22.73%	+0.51	-2.3	1
1978-04-23	@ Steinkjer	D 1-1	51.8	1272	1348	22.73%	27.06%	50.21%	-0.51	+2.3	1
1978-04-27	Lyn Oslo	W 4-0	39.8	1253	1358	26.67%	27.13%	46.20%	-0.44	+65.3	2
1978-04-27	@ Valerenga	L 0-4	39.8	1358	1253	46.20%	27.13%	26.67%	+0.44	-65.3	1
1978-04-30	Bryne	L 1-2	50.1	1295	1233	48.59%	27.13%	24.27%	+0.43	-18.0	1
1978-04-30	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	50.1	1233	1295	24.27%	27.13%	48.59%	-0.43	+18.0	2
1978-04-30	Moss	L 1-2	49.3	1284	1245	45.81%	27.22%	26.97%	+0.31	-17.1	0
1978-04-30	@ Skeid	W 2-1	49.3	1245	1284	26.97%	27.22%	45.81%	-0.31	+17.1	4
1978-04-30	Steinkjer	D 1-1	51.9	1294	1345	33.55%	27.30%	39.15%	-0.16	+0.4	3
1978-04-30	@ Start	D 1-1	51.9	1345	1294	39.15%	27.30%	33.55%	+0.16	-0.4	2
1978-05-01	Molde	W 2-1	43.3	1275	1230	46.61%	27.20%	26.18%	+0.35	+11.2	3
1978-05-01	@ Brann	L 1-2	43.3	1230	1275	26.18%	27.20%	46.61%	-0.35	-11.2	0
1978-05-01	Lillestrom	D 2-2	57.2	1318	1382	31.77%	27.27%	40.95%	-0.23	+0.6	3
1978-05-01	@ Viking	D 2-2	57.2	1382	1318	40.95%	27.27%	31.77%	+0.23	-0.5	3
1978-05-04	Valerenga	D 1-1	51.4	1251	1318	31.39%	27.26%	41.34%	-0.24	+0.8	3
1978-05-04	@ Bryne	D 1-1	51.4	1318	1251	41.34%	27.26%	31.39%	+0.24	-0.8	3
1978-05-04	Start	L 1-2	52.0	1382	1294	51.51%	26.99%	21.50%	+0.57	-19.0	3
1978-05-04	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	52.0	1294	1382	21.50%	26.99%	51.51%	-0.57	+19.0	5
1978-05-04	Bodo Glimt	W 6-5	57.6	1218	1277	32.62%	27.29%	40.10%	-0.20	+13.9	2
1978-05-04	@ Molde	L 5-6	57.6	1277	1218	40.10%	27.29%	32.62%	+0.20	-13.9	1
1978-05-04	Brann	L 1-3	44.5	1262	1286	37.49%	27.32%	35.19%	-0.01	-25.3	4
1978-05-04	@ Moss	W 3-1	44.5	1286	1262	35.19%	27.32%	37.49%	+0.01	+25.3	5
1978-05-04	Viking	D 0-0	47.9	1266	1318	33.48%	27.30%	39.22%	-0.16	+0.5	1
1978-05-04	@ Skeid	D 0-0	47.9	1318	1266	39.22%	27.30%	33.48%	+0.16	-0.5	4
1978-05-04	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	48.3	1345	1292	47.54%	27.17%	25.29%	+0.39	-2.1	3
1978-05-04	@ Steinkjer	D 0-0	48.3	1292	1345	25.29%	27.17%	47.54%	-0.39	+2.1	2
1978-05-07	Steinkjer	D 1-1	51.6	1263	1343	29.70%	27.23%	43.07%	-0.31	+1.1	2
1978-05-07	@ Bodo Glimt	D 1-1	51.6	1343	1263	43.07%	27.23%	29.70%	+0.31	-1.1	4
1978-05-07	Bryne	L 0-4	39.5	1294	1252	46.31%	27.21%	26.48%	+0.33	-65.5	2
1978-05-07	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-0	39.5	1252	1294	26.48%	27.21%	46.31%	-0.33	+65.5	5
1978-05-07	Molde	W 3-1	39.8	1313	1232	50.84%	27.03%	22.13%	+0.54	+17.0	7
1978-05-07	@ Start	L 1-3	39.8	1232	1313	22.13%	27.03%	50.84%	-0.54	-16.9	2
1978-05-08	Lillestrom	L 0-1	42.4	1311	1363	33.50%	27.30%	39.21%	-0.16	-14.2	5
1978-05-08	@ Brann	W 1-0	42.4	1363	1311	39.21%	27.30%	33.50%	+0.16	+14.2	5
1978-05-08	Skeid	W 3-2	48.0	1318	1267	47.29%	27.18%	25.53%	+0.38	+10.4	5
1978-05-08	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	48.0	1267	1318	25.53%	27.18%	47.29%	-0.38	-10.4	1
1978-05-08	Moss	W 2-0	35.2	1318	1237	50.82%	27.03%	22.15%	+0.54	+19.6	6
1978-05-08	@ Viking	L 0-2	35.2	1237	1318	22.15%	27.03%	50.82%	-0.54	-19.6	4
1978-05-11	Brann	W 2-0	39.9	1257	1297	35.13%	27.31%	37.56%	-0.10	+29.2	3
1978-05-11	@ Skeid	L 0-2	39.9	1297	1257	37.56%	27.31%	35.13%	+0.10	-29.2	5
1978-05-15	Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	34.8	1377	1264	54.22%	26.82%	18.96%	+0.71	+17.3	7
1978-05-15	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	34.8	1264	1377	18.96%	26.82%	54.22%	-0.71	-17.3	2
1978-05-15	Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	44.6	1215	1229	38.88%	27.32%	33.79%	+0.04	-26.0	2
1978-05-15	@ Molde	W 3-1	44.6	1229	1215	33.79%	27.32%	38.88%	-0.04	+26.0	4
1978-05-15	Start	L 0-2	36.2	1217	1330	25.66%	27.09%	47.25%	-0.48	-21.9	4
1978-05-15	@ Moss	W 2-0	36.2	1330	1217	47.25%	27.09%	25.66%	+0.48	+21.9	9
1978-05-15	Bryne	L 1-2	49.6	1342	1317	44.02%	27.27%	28.71%	+0.24	-16.5	4
1978-05-15	@ Steinkjer	W 2-1	49.6	1317	1342	28.71%	27.27%	44.02%	-0.24	+16.5	7
1978-05-16	Valerenga	W 2-1	45.7	1337	1328	42.05%	27.30%	30.65%	+0.16	+12.6	8
1978-05-16	@ Viking	L 1-2	45.7	1328	1337	30.65%	27.30%	42.05%	-0.16	-12.6	5
1978-05-23	Viking	D 2-2	56.4	1268	1350	29.41%	27.22%	43.37%	-0.32	+0.8	6
1978-05-23	@ Brann	D 2-2	56.4	1350	1268	43.37%	27.22%	29.41%	+0.32	-0.8	9
1978-05-24	Moss	L 2-3	54.0	1247	1195	47.36%	27.18%	25.46%	+0.38	-16.7	2
1978-05-24	@ Bodo Glimt	W 3-2	54.0	1195	1247	25.46%	27.18%	47.36%	-0.38	+16.7	6
1978-05-24	Molde	W 1-0	35.9	1334	1189	57.20%	26.56%	16.24%	+0.87	+8.1	9
1978-05-24	@ Bryne	L 0-1	35.9	1189	1334	16.24%	26.56%	57.20%	-0.87	-8.0	2
1978-05-24	Lillestrom	D 0-0	48.5	1255	1394	22.72%	26.93%	50.35%	-0.62	+2.6	5
1978-05-24	@ Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	48.5	1394	1255	50.35%	26.93%	22.72%	+0.62	-2.6	8
1978-05-24	Skeid	L 0-1	46.7	1352	1286	49.18%	27.11%	23.71%	+0.46	-19.3	9
1978-05-24	@ Start	W 1-0	46.7	1286	1352	23.71%	27.11%	49.18%	-0.46	+19.3	5
1978-05-25	Steinkjer	W 5-0	36.3	1315	1325	39.40%	27.32%	33.28%	+0.06	+62.5	7
1978-05-25	@ Valerenga	L 0-5	36.3	1325	1315	33.28%	27.32%	39.40%	-0.06	-62.5	4
1978-05-27	Lyn Oslo	L 2-3	50.2	1212	1258	34.37%	27.31%	38.32%	-0.13	-13.0	6
1978-05-27	@ Moss	W 3-2	50.2	1258	1212	38.32%	27.31%	34.37%	+0.13	+13.0	7
1978-05-27	Start	L 0-2	42.5	1349	1333	42.93%	27.29%	29.78%	+0.20	-32.4	9
1978-05-27	@ Viking	W 2-0	42.5	1333	1349	29.78%	27.29%	42.93%	-0.20	+32.4	11
1978-05-28	Bryne	W 3-1	42.7	1392	1342	47.19%	27.18%	25.63%	+0.37	+19.0	10
1978-05-28	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	42.7	1342	1392	25.63%	27.18%	47.19%	-0.37	-19.0	9
1978-05-28	Steinkjer	L 2-4	45.8	1181	1263	29.54%	27.22%	43.24%	-0.32	-18.9	2
1978-05-28	@ Molde	W 4-2	45.8	1263	1181	43.24%	27.22%	29.54%	+0.32	+18.9	6
1978-05-29	Valerenga	L 1-2	44.1	1268	1378	26.08%	27.10%	46.81%	-0.46	-11.1	6
1978-05-29	@ Brann	W 2-1	44.1	1378	1268	46.81%	27.10%	26.08%	+0.46	+11.1	9
1978-05-29	Bodo Glimt	W 2-1	42.4	1305	1230	50.18%	27.06%	22.76%	+0.51	+10.0	7
1978-05-29	@ Skeid	L 1-2	42.4	1230	1305	22.76%	27.06%	50.18%	-0.51	-10.0	2
1978-06-03	Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	34.6	1317	1220	52.55%	26.93%	20.52%	+0.62	+18.4	11
1978-06-03	@ Viking	L 0-2	34.6	1220	1317	20.52%	26.93%	52.55%	-0.62	-18.4	2
1978-06-04	Moss	D 1-1	51.3	1323	1199	55.27%	26.74%	18.00%	+0.76	-3.3	10
1978-06-04	@ Bryne	D 1-1	51.3	1199	1323	18.00%	26.74%	55.27%	-0.76	+3.3	7
1978-06-04	Brann	D 0-0	48.3	1365	1257	53.71%	26.85%	19.43%	+0.68	-3.3	12
1978-06-04	@ Start	D 0-0	48.3	1257	1365	19.43%	26.85%	53.71%	-0.68	+3.3	7
1978-06-04	Lillestrom	L 0-2	36.8	1282	1411	23.86%	27.00%	49.15%	-0.57	-20.7	6
1978-06-04	@ Steinkjer	W 2-0	36.8	1411	1282	49.15%	27.00%	23.86%	+0.57	+20.7	12
1978-06-04	Molde	D 0-0	48.2	1389	1162	63.62%	25.65%	10.73%	+1.30	-5.5	10
1978-06-04	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	48.2	1162	1389	10.73%	25.65%	63.62%	-1.30	+5.5	3
1978-06-05	Skeid	W 4-1	42.8	1271	1315	34.50%	27.31%	38.19%	-0.12	+36.2	9
1978-06-05	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	42.8	1315	1271	38.19%	27.31%	34.50%	+0.12	-36.2	7
1978-06-11	Valerenga	L 0-2	34.2	1201	1383	18.52%	26.60%	54.88%	-0.85	-16.9	2
1978-06-11	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	34.2	1383	1201	54.88%	26.60%	18.52%	+0.85	+16.9	12
1978-06-11	Brann	L 1-5	44.3	1320	1261	48.30%	27.14%	24.55%	+0.42	-56.6	10
1978-06-11	@ Bryne	W 5-1	44.3	1261	1320	24.55%	27.14%	48.30%	-0.42	+56.6	9
1978-06-11	Skeid	L 0-4	33.0	1168	1279	25.90%	27.10%	47.00%	-0.47	-41.9	3
1978-06-11	@ Molde	W 4-0	33.0	1279	1168	47.00%	27.10%	25.90%	+0.47	+41.9	9
1978-06-11	Viking	D 1-1	51.6	1261	1335	30.48%	27.24%	42.27%	-0.28	+1.0	7
1978-06-11	@ Steinkjer	D 1-1	51.6	1335	1261	42.27%	27.24%	30.48%	+0.28	-1.0	12
1978-06-12	Moss	D 2-2	57.0	1431	1202	63.79%	25.62%	10.59%	+1.31	-3.7	13
1978-06-12	@ Lillestrom	D 2-2	57.0	1202	1431	10.59%	25.62%	63.79%	-1.31	+3.7	8
1978-06-12	Start	L 0-2	39.4	1307	1362	33.01%	27.29%	39.70%	-0.18	-26.6	9
1978-06-12	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	39.4	1362	1307	39.70%	27.29%	33.01%	+0.18	+26.6	14
1978-06-15	Bryne	D 2-2	56.2	1321	1263	48.15%	27.15%	24.70%	+0.41	-1.5	10
1978-06-15	@ Skeid	D 2-2	56.2	1263	1321	24.70%	27.15%	48.15%	-0.41	+1.5	11
1978-06-17	Steinkjer	W 7-0	38.5	1206	1262	32.93%	27.29%	39.78%	-0.18	+98.1	10
1978-06-17	@ Moss	L 0-7	38.5	1262	1206	39.78%	27.29%	32.93%	+0.18	-98.1	7
1978-06-18	Bodo Glimt	W 3-0	31.4	1317	1185	56.10%	26.66%	17.23%	+0.81	+23.2	11
1978-06-18	@ Brann	L 0-3	31.4	1185	1317	17.23%	26.66%	56.10%	-0.81	-23.2	2
1978-06-18	Valerenga	W 2-0	41.4	1389	1400	39.16%	27.32%	33.52%	+0.05	+26.9	16
1978-06-18	@ Start	L 0-2	41.4	1400	1389	33.52%	27.32%	39.16%	-0.05	-26.9	12
1978-06-19	Molde	W 4-1	32.5	1428	1126	68.13%	24.56%	7.31%	+1.70	+8.9	15
1978-06-19	@ Lillestrom	L 1-4	32.5	1126	1428	7.31%	24.56%	68.13%	-1.70	-8.9	3
1978-06-19	Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	41.2	1334	1280	47.71%	27.16%	25.13%	+0.39	+18.7	14
1978-06-19	@ Viking	L 1-3	41.2	1280	1334	25.13%	27.16%	47.71%	-0.39	-18.7	9
1978-06-21	Start	D 1-1	51.9	1161	1416	12.95%	25.83%	61.22%	-1.22	+4.4	3
1978-06-21	@ Bodo Glimt	D 1-1	51.9	1416	1161	61.22%	25.83%	12.95%	+1.22	-4.4	17
1978-06-22	Viking	D 2-2	56.4	1265	1353	28.65%	27.20%	44.15%	-0.35	+0.9	12
1978-06-22	@ Bryne	D 2-2	56.4	1353	1265	44.15%	27.20%	28.65%	+0.35	-0.9	15
1978-06-22	Lillestrom	D 1-1	54.5	1373	1437	31.95%	27.27%	40.78%	-0.22	+0.7	13
1978-06-22	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	54.5	1437	1373	40.78%	27.27%	31.95%	+0.22	-0.7	16
1978-06-24	Moss	L 3-4	48.2	1117	1304	18.07%	26.55%	55.37%	-0.87	-7.7	3
1978-06-24	@ Molde	W 4-3	48.2	1304	1117	55.37%	26.55%	18.07%	+0.87	+7.7	12
1978-06-24	Skeid	L 2-3	46.1	1164	1319	21.06%	26.82%	52.13%	-0.71	-8.9	7
1978-06-24	@ Steinkjer	W 3-2	46.1	1319	1164	52.13%	26.82%	21.06%	+0.71	+8.9	12
1978-06-26	Brann	L 3-4	52.7	1261	1340	29.87%	27.23%	42.90%	-0.30	-11.4	9
1978-06-26	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-3	52.7	1340	1261	42.90%	27.23%	29.87%	+0.30	+11.4	13
1978-07-30	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	48.3	1166	1250	29.18%	27.21%	43.61%	-0.33	+16.4	5
1978-07-30	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-2	48.3	1250	1166	43.61%	27.21%	29.18%	+0.33	-16.4	9
1978-07-30	Steinkjer	W 9-1	31.7	1352	1155	61.50%	26.02%	12.49%	+1.14	+36.2	15
1978-07-30	@ Brann	L 1-9	31.7	1155	1352	12.49%	26.02%	61.50%	-1.14	-36.2	7
1978-07-31	Moss	W 3-2	48.5	1374	1312	48.71%	27.13%	24.17%	+0.44	+10.0	15
1978-07-31	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	48.5	1312	1374	24.17%	27.13%	48.71%	-0.44	-9.9	12
1978-07-31	Molde	W 5-0	27.8	1352	1109	64.68%	25.43%	9.88%	+1.39	+22.8	17
1978-07-31	@ Viking	L 0-5	27.8	1109	1352	9.88%	25.43%	64.68%	-1.39	-22.8	3
1978-08-02	Lillestrom	L 1-3	43.4	1328	1436	26.30%	27.11%	46.59%	-0.45	-19.4	12
1978-08-02	@ Skeid	W 3-1	43.4	1436	1328	46.59%	27.11%	26.30%	+0.45	+19.4	18
1978-08-02	Bryne	D 0-0	48.9	1411	1265	57.30%	26.55%	16.15%	+0.88	-4.1	18
1978-08-02	@ Start	D 0-0	48.9	1265	1411	16.15%	26.55%	57.30%	-0.88	+4.1	13
1978-08-05	Skeid	L 1-2	48.0	1302	1309	39.80%	27.32%	32.88%	+0.07	-15.3	12
1978-08-05	@ Moss	W 2-1	48.0	1309	1302	32.88%	27.32%	39.80%	-0.07	+15.3	14
1978-08-05	Start	D 0-0	48.2	1119	1407	10.90%	25.39%	63.71%	-1.40	+5.5	8
1978-08-05	@ Steinkjer	D 0-0	48.2	1407	1119	63.71%	25.39%	10.90%	+1.40	-5.5	19
1978-08-06	Bodo Glimt	D 0-0	47.5	1270	1182	51.52%	26.99%	21.49%	+0.57	-2.9	14
1978-08-06	@ Bryne	D 0-0	47.5	1182	1270	21.49%	26.99%	51.52%	-0.57	+2.9	6
1978-08-06	Viking	D 1-1	55.1	1455	1375	50.77%	27.03%	22.20%	+0.53	-2.4	19
1978-08-06	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	55.1	1375	1455	22.20%	27.03%	50.77%	-0.53	+2.4	18
1978-08-06	Brann	W 4-1	49.6	1087	1388	10.20%	25.20%	64.60%	-1.47	+57.6	5
1978-08-06	@ Molde	L 1-4	49.6	1388	1087	64.60%	25.20%	10.20%	+1.47	-57.6	15
1978-08-07	Valerenga	D 2-2	56.5	1234	1384	21.56%	26.85%	51.59%	-0.68	+1.9	10
1978-08-07	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	56.5	1384	1234	51.59%	26.85%	21.56%	+0.68	-1.9	16
1978-08-13	Molde	W 3-1	40.7	1185	1144	46.10%	27.22%	26.68%	+0.33	+19.6	8
1978-08-13	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-3	40.7	1144	1185	26.68%	27.22%	46.10%	-0.33	-19.6	5
1978-08-13	Steinkjer	D 2-2	55.6	1236	1124	54.03%	26.83%	19.14%	+0.70	-2.3	11
1978-08-13	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	55.6	1124	1236	19.14%	26.83%	54.03%	-0.70	+2.3	9
1978-08-13	Lillestrom	D 3-3	64.3	1402	1453	33.56%	27.30%	39.14%	-0.16	+0.3	20
1978-08-13	@ Start	D 3-3	64.3	1453	1402	39.14%	27.30%	33.56%	+0.16	-0.3	20
1978-08-14	Moss	W 1-0	39.7	1330	1287	46.46%	27.21%	26.33%	+0.34	+11.9	17
1978-08-14	@ Brann	L 0-1	39.7	1287	1330	26.33%	27.21%	46.46%	-0.34	-11.9	12
1978-08-14	Bryne	L 2-3	57.1	1382	1267	54.45%	26.80%	18.75%	+0.72	-18.9	16
1978-08-14	@ Valerenga	W 3-2	57.1	1267	1382	18.75%	26.80%	54.45%	-0.72	+18.9	16
1978-08-14	Skeid	L 0-1	46.9	1377	1324	47.59%	27.17%	25.24%	+0.39	-18.7	18
1978-08-14	@ Viking	W 1-0	46.9	1324	1377	25.24%	27.17%	47.59%	-0.39	+18.7	16
1978-08-19	Bodo Glimt	L 0-1	39.8	1127	1205	29.97%	27.23%	42.80%	-0.30	-13.1	9
1978-08-19	@ Steinkjer	W 1-0	39.8	1205	1127	42.80%	27.23%	29.97%	+0.30	+13.1	10
1978-08-20	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	38.8	1286	1233	47.50%	27.17%	25.33%	+0.39	+11.5	18
1978-08-20	@ Bryne	L 0-1	38.8	1233	1286	25.33%	27.17%	47.50%	-0.39	-11.5	11
1978-08-20	Brann	W 3-1	41.8	1453	1342	53.94%	26.84%	19.23%	+0.69	+15.1	22
1978-08-20	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	41.8	1342	1453	19.23%	26.84%	53.94%	-0.69	-15.1	17
1978-08-20	Start	L 0-2	31.4	1125	1402	11.52%	25.54%	62.94%	-1.35	-11.1	5
1978-08-20	@ Molde	W 2-0	31.4	1402	1125	62.94%	25.54%	11.52%	+1.35	+11.2	22
1978-08-20	Viking	W 3-0	40.2	1275	1359	29.23%	27.21%	43.55%	-0.33	+47.6	14
1978-08-20	@ Moss	L 0-3	40.2	1359	1275	43.55%	27.21%	29.23%	+0.33	-47.6	18
1978-08-22	Valerenga	W 3-2	52.0	1343	1363	37.94%	27.32%	34.74%	+0.00	+13.1	18
1978-08-22	@ Skeid	L 2-3	52.0	1363	1343	34.74%	27.32%	37.94%	+0.00	-13.1	16
1978-09-03	Lillestrom	D 1-1	52.8	1218	1468	13.22%	25.89%	60.89%	-1.20	+4.4	11
1978-09-03	@ Bodo Glimt	D 1-1	52.8	1468	1218	60.89%	25.89%	13.22%	+1.20	-4.3	23
1978-09-03	Steinkjer	W 1-0	34.6	1297	1113	60.50%	26.16%	13.34%	+1.08	+6.8	20
1978-09-03	@ Bryne	L 0-1	34.6	1113	1297	13.34%	26.16%	60.50%	-1.08	-6.8	9
1978-09-03	Moss	W 2-0	36.6	1413	1322	51.89%	26.97%	21.14%	+0.59	+18.9	24
1978-09-03	@ Start	L 0-2	36.6	1322	1413	21.14%	26.97%	51.89%	-0.59	-18.9	14
1978-09-03	Viking	L 2-3	54.8	1350	1311	45.90%	27.22%	26.88%	+0.32	-16.2	16
1978-09-03	@ Valerenga	W 3-2	54.8	1311	1350	26.88%	27.22%	45.90%	-0.32	+16.2	20
1978-09-04	Skeid	W 2-1	47.5	1327	1356	36.73%	27.32%	35.94%	-0.04	+14.1	19
1978-09-04	@ Brann	L 1-2	47.5	1356	1327	35.94%	27.32%	36.73%	+0.04	-14.1	18
1978-09-04	Molde	L 0-2	44.1	1222	1113	53.73%	26.85%	19.42%	+0.68	-39.4	11
1978-09-04	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	44.1	1113	1222	19.42%	26.85%	53.73%	-0.68	+39.4	7
1978-09-10	Lyn Oslo	W 5-0	28.0	1463	1182	66.99%	24.88%	8.13%	+1.59	+18.9	25
1978-09-10	@ Lillestrom	L 0-5	28.0	1182	1463	8.13%	24.88%	66.99%	-1.59	-18.9	11
1978-09-10	Bryne	W 4-2	52.3	1153	1304	21.50%	26.85%	51.65%	-0.68	+29.4	9
1978-09-10	@ Molde	L 2-4	52.3	1304	1153	51.65%	26.85%	21.50%	+0.68	-29.4	20
1978-09-10	Bodo Glimt	L 3-4	58.5	1303	1222	50.85%	27.03%	22.12%	+0.54	-17.3	14
1978-09-10	@ Moss	W 4-3	58.5	1222	1303	22.12%	27.03%	50.85%	-0.54	+17.3	13
1978-09-10	Start	L 0-1	42.3	1342	1432	28.46%	27.19%	44.35%	-0.36	-12.6	18
1978-09-10	@ Skeid	W 1-0	42.3	1432	1342	44.35%	27.19%	28.46%	+0.36	+12.6	26
1978-09-10	Valerenga	D 1-1	51.3	1107	1334	14.81%	26.15%	59.04%	-1.08	+4.0	10
1978-09-10	@ Steinkjer	D 1-1	51.3	1334	1107	59.04%	26.15%	14.81%	+1.08	-4.0	17
1978-09-11	Brann	W 4-0	36.7	1327	1341	38.83%	27.32%	33.85%	+0.04	+51.4	22
1978-09-11	@ Viking	L 0-4	36.7	1341	1327	33.85%	27.32%	38.83%	-0.04	-51.4	19
1978-09-14	Moss	L 1-2	42.6	1163	1286	24.57%	27.03%	48.40%	-0.53	-10.6	11
1978-09-14	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	42.6	1286	1163	48.40%	27.03%	24.57%	+0.53	+10.6	16
1978-09-17	Skeid	W 4-0	39.0	1239	1329	28.49%	27.19%	44.32%	-0.36	+63.1	15
1978-09-17	@ Bodo Glimt	L 0-4	39.0	1329	1239	44.32%	27.19%	28.49%	+0.36	-63.1	18
1978-09-17	Lillestrom	D 1-1	53.7	1275	1482	16.33%	26.36%	57.32%	-0.98	+3.7	21
1978-09-17	@ Bryne	D 1-1	53.7	1482	1275	57.32%	26.36%	16.33%	+0.98	-3.6	26
1978-09-17	Viking	D 1-1	54.9	1444	1379	49.11%	27.11%	23.78%	+0.46	-2.1	27
1978-09-17	@ Start	D 1-1	54.9	1379	1444	23.78%	27.11%	49.11%	-0.46	+2.1	23
1978-09-17	Molde	D 2-2	55.4	1111	1182	30.82%	27.25%	41.92%	-0.27	+0.7	11
1978-09-17	@ Steinkjer	D 2-2	55.4	1182	1111	41.92%	27.25%	30.82%	+0.27	-0.7	10
1978-09-17	Brann	W 4-3	51.9	1330	1290	46.00%	27.22%	26.78%	+0.32	+10.5	19
1978-09-17	@ Valerenga	L 3-4	51.9	1290	1330	26.78%	27.22%	46.00%	-0.32	-10.5	19
1978-09-23	Molde	W 3-2	46.3	1266	1182	51.22%	27.01%	21.77%	+0.56	+9.2	20
1978-09-23	@ Skeid	L 2-3	46.3	1182	1266	21.77%	27.01%	51.22%	-0.56	-9.2	10
1978-09-23	Steinkjer	W 3-1	35.0	1381	1111	66.32%	25.06%	8.63%	+1.53	+7.4	25
1978-09-23	@ Viking	L 1-3	35.0	1111	1381	8.63%	25.06%	66.32%	-1.53	-7.4	11
1978-09-24	Lillestrom	D 0-0	50.4	1297	1479	18.53%	26.60%	54.87%	-0.85	+3.6	17
1978-09-24	@ Moss	D 0-0	50.4	1479	1297	54.87%	26.60%	18.53%	+0.85	-3.6	27
1978-09-24	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	33.2	1442	1153	67.46%	24.75%	7.79%	+1.63	+4.1	29
1978-09-24	@ Start	L 0-1	33.2	1153	1442	7.79%	24.75%	67.46%	-1.63	-4.1	11
1978-09-24	Bodo Glimt	D 3-3	60.6	1340	1303	45.74%	27.23%	27.04%	+0.31	-1.0	20
1978-09-24	@ Valerenga	D 3-3	60.6	1303	1340	27.04%	27.23%	45.74%	-0.31	+1.0	16
1978-10-01	Viking	L 0-2	38.5	1303	1388	29.14%	27.21%	43.65%	-0.33	-24.2	16
1978-10-01	@ Bodo Glimt	W 2-0	38.5	1388	1303	43.65%	27.21%	29.14%	+0.33	+24.2	27
1978-10-01	Start	W 4-2	54.7	1279	1446	19.92%	26.73%	53.36%	-0.77	+30.3	21
1978-10-01	@ Brann	L 2-4	54.7	1446	1279	53.36%	26.73%	19.92%	+0.77	-30.3	29
1978-10-01	Steinkjer	W 3-1	33.8	1475	1104	71.48%	23.37%	5.15%	+2.06	+4.4	29
1978-10-01	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	33.8	1104	1475	5.15%	23.37%	71.48%	-2.06	-4.4	11
1978-10-01	Valerenga	L 2-3	45.9	1172	1340	19.91%	26.73%	53.36%	-0.77	-8.5	10
1978-10-01	@ Molde	W 3-2	45.9	1340	1172	53.36%	26.73%	19.91%	+0.77	+8.5	22
1978-10-01	Bryne	D 1-1	51.4	1300	1278	43.70%	27.27%	29.03%	+0.23	-1.2	18
1978-10-01	@ Moss	D 1-1	51.4	1278	1300	29.03%	27.27%	43.70%	-0.23	+1.2	22
1978-10-01	Lyn Oslo	W 5-1	34.4	1275	1149	55.53%	26.71%	17.75%	+0.78	+25.9	22
1978-10-01	@ Skeid	L 1-5	34.4	1149	1275	17.75%	26.71%	55.53%	-0.78	-25.9	11
1978-10-08	Brann	W 8-1	39.6	1279	1310	36.52%	27.32%	36.16%	-0.05	+75.2	18
1978-10-08	@ Bodo Glimt	L 1-8	39.6	1310	1279	36.16%	27.32%	36.52%	+0.05	-75.2	21
1978-10-08	Skeid	L 0-1	42.9	1279	1301	37.74%	27.32%	34.93%	+0.00	-15.6	22
1978-10-08	@ Bryne	W 1-0	42.9	1301	1279	34.93%	27.32%	37.74%	+0.00	+15.5	24
1978-10-08	Viking	L 2-3	42.8	1123	1412	10.84%	25.37%	63.79%	-1.41	-5.0	11
1978-10-08	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	42.8	1412	1123	63.79%	25.37%	10.84%	+1.41	+5.0	29
1978-10-08	Lillestrom	L 0-3	29.4	1164	1480	9.49%	25.00%	65.51%	-1.55	-13.5	10
1978-10-08	@ Molde	W 3-0	29.4	1480	1164	65.51%	25.00%	9.49%	+1.55	+13.5	31
1978-10-08	Moss	L 1-2	40.1	1099	1299	17.00%	26.44%	56.56%	-0.94	-7.9	11
1978-10-08	@ Steinkjer	W 2-1	40.1	1299	1099	56.56%	26.44%	17.00%	+0.94	+7.9	20
1978-10-08	Start	L 0-1	43.0	1348	1416	31.29%	27.26%	41.45%	-0.25	-13.5	22
1978-10-08	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	43.0	1416	1348	41.45%	27.26%	31.29%	+0.25	+13.5	31
1978-10-11	Bryne	W 2-1	46.3	1234	1264	36.66%	27.32%	36.01%	-0.04	+14.2	23
1978-10-11	@ Brann	L 1-2	46.3	1264	1234	36.01%	27.32%	36.66%	+0.04	-14.2	22
1978-10-15	Lyn Oslo	W 7-0	31.4	1249	1118	55.93%	26.68%	17.39%	+0.80	+51.7	25
1978-10-15	@ Brann	L 0-7	31.4	1118	1249	17.39%	26.68%	55.93%	-0.80	-51.7	11
1978-10-15	Valerenga	L 1-3	54.2	1493	1334	58.43%	26.43%	15.15%	+0.94	-37.0	31
1978-10-15	@ Lillestrom	W 3-1	54.2	1334	1493	15.15%	26.43%	58.43%	-0.94	+37.0	24
1978-10-15	Molde	L 2-4	54.2	1307	1150	58.25%	26.45%	15.30%	+0.93	-33.0	20
1978-10-15	@ Moss	W 4-2	54.2	1150	1307	15.30%	26.45%	58.25%	-0.93	+33.0	12
1978-10-15	Steinkjer	W 2-0	30.9	1317	1092	63.52%	25.67%	10.81%	+1.29	+10.6	26
1978-10-15	@ Skeid	L 0-2	30.9	1092	1317	10.81%	25.67%	63.52%	-1.29	-10.6	11
1978-10-15	Bodo Glimt	W 1-0	40.8	1430	1354	50.18%	27.06%	22.76%	+0.51	+10.6	33
1978-10-15	@ Start	L 0-1	40.8	1354	1430	22.76%	27.06%	50.18%	-0.51	-10.6	18
1978-10-15	Bryne	W 2-0	33.5	1417	1250	59.19%	26.34%	14.47%	+0.99	+13.8	31
1978-10-15	@ Viking	L 0-2	33.5	1250	1417	14.47%	26.34%	59.19%	-0.99	-13.8	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1978-08-06	10.20%	@ Molde	1087	4	Brann	1388	1
2	1978-10-15	15.15%	Valerenga	1334	3	@ Lillestrom	1493	1
3	1978-10-15	15.30%	Molde	1150	4	@ Moss	1307	2
4	1978-08-14	18.75%	Bryne	1267	3	@ Valerenga	1382	2
5	1978-09-04	19.42%	Molde	1113	2	@ Lyn Oslo	1222	0
6	1978-10-01	19.92%	@ Brann	1279	4	Start	1446	2
7	1978-05-04	21.50%	Start	1294	2	@ Lillestrom	1382	1
8	1978-09-10	21.50%	@ Molde	1153	4	Bryne	1304	2
9	1978-09-10	22.12%	Bodo Glimt	1222	4	@ Moss	1303	3
10	1978-05-24	23.71%	Skeid	1286	1	@ Start	1352	0
11	1978-04-30	24.27%	Bryne	1233	2	@ Bodo Glimt	1295	1
12	1978-06-11	24.55%	Brann	1261	5	@ Bryne	1320	1
13	1978-08-14	25.24%	Skeid	1324	1	@ Viking	1377	0
14	1978-05-24	25.46%	Moss	1195	3	@ Bodo Glimt	1247	2
15	1978-05-07	26.48%	Bryne	1252	4	@ Lyn Oslo	1294	0
16	1978-04-27	26.67%	@ Valerenga	1253	4	Lyn Oslo	1358	0
17	1978-09-03	26.88%	Viking	1311	3	@ Valerenga	1350	2
18	1978-04-30	26.97%	Moss	1245	2	@ Skeid	1284	1
19	1978-09-17	28.49%	@ Bodo Glimt	1239	4	Skeid	1329	0
20	1978-05-15	28.71%	Bryne	1317	2	@ Steinkjer	1342	1
21	1978-07-30	29.18%	@ Bodo Glimt	1166	2	Lyn Oslo	1250	1
22	1978-08-20	29.23%	@ Moss	1275	3	Viking	1359	0
23	1978-05-27	29.78%	Start	1333	2	@ Viking	1349	0
24	1978-05-04	32.62%	@ Molde	1218	6	Bodo Glimt	1277	5
25	1978-08-05	32.88%	Skeid	1309	2	@ Moss	1302	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-06-17	98.06	@ Moss	7	1206	32.93%	Steinkjer	0	1262	39.78%	27.29%
2	1978-10-08	75.16	@ Bodo Glimt	8	1279	36.52%	Brann	1	1310	36.16%	27.32%
3	1978-05-07	65.48	Bryne	4	1252	26.48%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1294	46.31%	27.21%
4	1978-04-27	65.29	@ Valerenga	4	1253	26.67%	Lyn Oslo	0	1358	46.20%	27.13%
5	1978-09-17	63.06	@ Bodo Glimt	4	1239	28.49%	Skeid	0	1329	44.32%	27.19%
6	1978-05-25	62.52	@ Valerenga	5	1315	39.40%	Steinkjer	0	1325	33.28%	27.32%
7	1978-08-06	57.64	@ Molde	4	1087	10.20%	Brann	1	1388	64.60%	25.20%
8	1978-06-11	56.58	Brann	5	1261	24.55%	@ Bryne	1	1320	48.30%	27.14%
9	1978-10-15	51.68	@ Brann	7	1249	55.93%	Lyn Oslo	0	1118	17.39%	26.68%
10	1978-09-11	51.37	@ Viking	4	1327	38.83%	Brann	0	1341	33.85%	27.32%
11	1978-08-20	47.58	@ Moss	3	1275	29.23%	Viking	0	1359	43.55%	27.21%
12	1978-06-11	41.94	Skeid	4	1279	47.00%	@ Molde	0	1168	25.90%	27.10%
13	1978-09-04	39.41	Molde	2	1113	19.42%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1222	53.73%	26.85%
14	1978-10-15	37.00	Valerenga	3	1334	15.15%	@ Lillestrom	1	1493	58.43%	26.43%
15	1978-06-05	36.22	@ Lyn Oslo	4	1271	34.50%	Skeid	1	1315	38.19%	27.31%
16	1978-07-30	36.22	@ Brann	9	1352	61.50%	Steinkjer	1	1155	12.49%	26.02%
17	1978-10-15	33.00	Molde	4	1150	15.30%	@ Moss	2	1307	58.25%	26.45%
18	1978-05-27	32.40	Start	2	1333	29.78%	@ Viking	0	1349	42.93%	27.29%
19	1978-10-01	30.28	@ Brann	4	1279	19.92%	Start	2	1446	53.36%	26.73%
20	1978-09-10	29.40	@ Molde	4	1153	21.50%	Bryne	2	1304	51.65%	26.85%
21	1978-05-11	29.21	@ Skeid	2	1257	35.13%	Brann	0	1297	37.56%	27.31%
22	1978-04-23	28.55	Viking	2	1289	36.28%	@ Molde	0	1258	36.40%	27.32%
23	1978-06-18	26.88	@ Start	2	1389	39.16%	Valerenga	0	1400	33.52%	27.32%
24	1978-06-12	26.57	Start	2	1362	39.70%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1307	33.01%	27.29%
25	1978-05-15	25.97	Lyn Oslo	3	1229	33.79%	@ Molde	1	1215	38.88%	27.32%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-08-13	64.3	@ Start	3	1402	33.56%	Lillestrom	3	1453	39.14%	27.30%
2	1978-09-24	60.6	@ Valerenga	3	1340	45.74%	Bodo Glimt	3	1303	27.04%	27.23%
3	1978-09-10	58.5	Bodo Glimt	4	1222	22.12%	@ Moss	3	1303	50.85%	27.03%
4	1978-05-04	57.6	@ Molde	6	1218	32.62%	Bodo Glimt	5	1277	40.10%	27.29%
5	1978-05-01	57.2	@ Viking	2	1318	31.77%	Lillestrom	2	1382	40.95%	27.27%
6	1978-08-14	57.1	Bryne	3	1267	18.75%	@ Valerenga	2	1382	54.45%	26.80%
7	1978-06-12	57.0	@ Lillestrom	2	1431	63.79%	Moss	2	1202	10.59%	25.62%
8	1978-08-07	56.5	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1234	21.56%	Valerenga	2	1384	51.59%	26.85%
9	1978-05-23	56.4	@ Brann	2	1268	29.41%	Viking	2	1350	43.37%	27.22%
10	1978-06-22	56.4	@ Bryne	2	1265	28.65%	Viking	2	1353	44.15%	27.20%
11	1978-06-15	56.2	@ Skeid	2	1321	48.15%	Bryne	2	1263	24.70%	27.15%
12	1978-08-13	55.6	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1236	54.03%	Steinkjer	2	1124	19.14%	26.83%
13	1978-09-17	55.4	@ Steinkjer	2	1111	30.82%	Molde	2	1182	41.92%	27.25%
14	1978-08-06	55.1	@ Lillestrom	1	1455	50.77%	Viking	1	1375	22.20%	27.03%
15	1978-09-17	54.9	@ Start	1	1444	49.11%	Viking	1	1379	23.78%	27.11%
16	1978-09-03	54.8	Viking	3	1311	26.88%	@ Valerenga	2	1350	45.90%	27.22%
17	1978-10-01	54.7	@ Brann	4	1279	19.92%	Start	2	1446	53.36%	26.73%
18	1978-06-22	54.5	@ Valerenga	1	1373	31.95%	Lillestrom	1	1437	40.78%	27.27%
19	1978-10-15	54.2	Valerenga	3	1334	15.15%	@ Lillestrom	1	1493	58.43%	26.43%
20	1978-10-15	54.2	Molde	4	1150	15.30%	@ Moss	2	1307	58.25%	26.45%
21	1978-05-24	54.0	Moss	3	1195	25.46%	@ Bodo Glimt	2	1247	47.36%	27.18%
22	1978-09-17	53.7	@ Bryne	1	1275	16.33%	Lillestrom	1	1482	57.32%	26.36%
23	1978-09-03	52.8	@ Bodo Glimt	1	1218	13.22%	Lillestrom	1	1468	60.89%	25.89%
24	1978-06-26	52.7	Brann	4	1340	42.90%	@ Lyn Oslo	3	1261	29.87%	27.23%
25	1978-09-10	52.3	@ Molde	4	1153	21.50%	Bryne	2	1304	51.65%	26.85%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-07-31	27.8	@ Viking	5	1352	64.68%	Molde	0	1109	9.88%	25.43%
2	1978-09-10	28.0	@ Lillestrom	5	1463	66.99%	Lyn Oslo	0	1182	8.13%	24.88%
3	1978-10-08	29.4	Lillestrom	3	1480	65.51%	@ Molde	0	1164	9.49%	25.00%
4	1978-10-15	30.9	@ Skeid	2	1317	63.52%	Steinkjer	0	1092	10.81%	25.67%
5	1978-06-18	31.4	@ Brann	3	1317	56.10%	Bodo Glimt	0	1185	17.23%	26.66%
6	1978-08-20	31.4	Start	2	1402	62.94%	@ Molde	0	1125	11.52%	25.54%
7	1978-10-15	31.4	@ Brann	7	1249	55.93%	Lyn Oslo	0	1118	17.39%	26.68%
8	1978-07-30	31.7	@ Brann	9	1352	61.50%	Steinkjer	1	1155	12.49%	26.02%
9	1978-06-19	32.5	@ Lillestrom	4	1428	68.13%	Molde	1	1126	7.31%	24.56%
10	1978-06-11	33.0	Skeid	4	1279	47.00%	@ Molde	0	1168	25.90%	27.10%
11	1978-09-24	33.2	@ Start	1	1442	67.46%	Lyn Oslo	0	1153	7.79%	24.75%
12	1978-10-15	33.5	@ Viking	2	1417	59.19%	Bryne	0	1250	14.47%	26.34%
13	1978-10-01	33.8	@ Lillestrom	3	1475	71.48%	Steinkjer	1	1104	5.15%	23.37%
14	1978-06-11	34.2	Valerenga	2	1383	54.88%	@ Bodo Glimt	0	1201	18.52%	26.60%
15	1978-10-01	34.4	@ Skeid	5	1275	55.53%	Lyn Oslo	1	1149	17.75%	26.71%
16	1978-06-03	34.6	@ Viking	2	1317	52.55%	Bodo Glimt	0	1220	20.52%	26.93%
17	1978-09-03	34.6	@ Bryne	1	1297	60.50%	Steinkjer	0	1113	13.34%	26.16%
18	1978-05-15	34.8	@ Lillestrom	2	1377	54.22%	Bodo Glimt	0	1264	18.96%	26.82%
19	1978-09-23	35.0	@ Viking	3	1381	66.32%	Steinkjer	1	1111	8.63%	25.06%
20	1978-05-08	35.2	@ Viking	2	1318	50.82%	Moss	0	1237	22.15%	27.03%
21	1978-05-24	35.9	@ Bryne	1	1334	57.20%	Molde	0	1189	16.24%	26.56%
22	1978-05-15	36.2	Start	2	1330	47.25%	@ Moss	0	1217	25.66%	27.09%
23	1978-05-25	36.3	@ Valerenga	5	1315	39.40%	Steinkjer	0	1325	33.28%	27.32%
24	1978-09-03	36.6	@ Start	2	1413	51.89%	Moss	0	1322	21.14%	26.97%
25	1978-09-11	36.7	@ Viking	4	1327	38.83%	Brann	0	1341	33.85%	27.32%