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2004 Tippeligaen Season

182 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

48 points · 19th Title

Last Title: 2003

Relegated

Sogndal

22 pts

Stabaek · 27 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

10.37 points above expected

48 points · 37.63 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sogndal

10.40 points below expected

22 points · 32.40 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg Champion 26 14 6 6 48 52 34 +18 42.60 +5.40
2 Valerenga 26 13 9 4 48 40 22 +18 37.63 +10.37
3 Brann 26 12 4 10 40 46 40 +6 34.83 +5.17
4 Tromso 26 12 4 10 40 38 32 +6 36.74 +3.26
5 Hamarkameratene 26 10 8 8 38 34 33 +1 34.61 +3.39
6 Lyn Oslo 26 9 10 7 37 30 31 -1 33.31 +3.69
7 Lillestrom 26 8 11 7 35 45 33 +12 38.72 -3.72
8 Odd Grenland 26 9 8 9 35 47 44 +3 37.62 -2.62
9 Viking 26 7 12 7 33 31 33 -2 35.85 -2.85
10 Fredrikstad 26 9 5 12 32 42 54 -12 27.10 +4.90
11 Molde 26 7 10 9 31 34 37 -3 34.19 -3.19
12 Bodo Glimt 26 7 6 13 27 28 41 -13 32.30 -5.30
13 Stabaek Relegated 26 7 6 13 27 25 40 -15 34.49 -7.49
14 Sogndal Relegated 26 5 7 14 22 39 57 -18 32.40 -10.40

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 48 37.63 +10.37
2 Rosenborg 48 42.60 +5.40
3 Brann 40 34.83 +5.17
4 Fredrikstad 32 27.10 +4.90
5 Lyn Oslo 37 33.31 +3.69

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sogndal 22 32.40 -10.40
2 Stabaek 27 34.49 -7.49
3 Bodo Glimt 27 32.30 -5.30
4 Lillestrom 35 38.72 -3.72
5 Molde 31 34.19 -3.19

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bodo Glimt 4 Jul 25 – Aug 22 1 in 139
2 Fredrikstad 3 Aug 22 – Sep 12 1 in 42
3 Brann 4 May 23 – Jun 13 1 in 38
4 Odd Grenland 3 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 37
5 Valerenga 3 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 30

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sogndal 5 Aug 22 – Sep 25 1 in 66
2 Stabaek 3 May 2 – May 16 1 in 41
3 Brann 3 Jun 21 – Jul 5 1 in 22
4 Tromso 3 Oct 3 – Oct 24 1 in 22
5 Rosenborg 2 May 10 – May 16 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 11 Aug 2 – Oct 30 1 in 77
2 Rosenborg 13 May 19 – Aug 29 1 in 71
3 Fredrikstad 8 Aug 22 – Oct 24 1 in 67
4 Lillestrom 9 May 23 – Aug 1 1 in 22
5 Lyn Oslo 7 Jul 26 – Sep 19 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bodo Glimt 8 May 20 – Jul 4 1 in 34
2 Sogndal 9 Jul 4 – Sep 25 1 in 26
3 Molde 7 Jul 25 – Sep 19 1 in 19
4 Viking 7 Jun 27 – Aug 29 1 in 15
5 Rosenborg 5 Apr 25 – May 19 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valerenga 1736 48 +22 11 8.2 +2.8
Rosenborg 1741 48 -2 9 8.9 +0.1
Brann 1687 40 +22 10 6.8 +3.2
Tromso 1661 40 -13 4 6.7 -2.7
Hamarkameratene 1666 38 +14 8 5.8 +2.2
Lyn Oslo 1658 37 -24 3 6.4 -3.4
Lillestrom 1701 35 -9 4 8.0 -4.0
Odd Grenland 1677 35 -18 4 7.7 -3.7
Viking 1669 33 +8 8 7.3 +0.7
Fredrikstad 1610 32 +9 10 6.0 +4.0
Molde 1660 31 +23 10 7.0 +3.0
Stabaek 1623 27 -17 4 5.6 -1.6
Bodo Glimt 1611 27 -22 2 5.7 -3.7
Sogndal 1584 22 +7 7 4.7 +2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BG BRA FRE HAM LIL LO MOL OG ROS SOG STA TRO VAL VIK
Bodo Glimt —
0-1-1
2.61
0-0-2
3.12
1-0-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.04
2-0-0
2.71
2-0-0
2.57
1-0-1
2.52
0-0-2
2.54
0-2-0
2.43
Brann
1-1-0
2.78
—
1-0-1
3.34
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.65
2-0-0
2.59
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
3.04
0-0-2
2.89
2-0-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.84
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
2.31
1-0-1
2.09
—
1-0-1
2.19
0-0-2
1.94
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
2.11
1-0-1
2.02
0-0-2
1.77
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.18
0-1-1
2.13
0-1-1
2.19
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
2.84
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.23
—
1-1-0
2.52
1-1-0
2.73
1-1-0
2.79
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.23
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
2.65
1-1-0
2.51
0-0-2
2.50
1-0-1
2.68
Lillestrom
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.49
0-1-1
2.90
—
0-2-0
2.94
0-2-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.86
0-1-1
2.49
2-0-0
3.23
1-1-0
2.99
0-1-1
3.00
0-0-2
2.95
1-1-0
2.99
Lyn Oslo
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
2.74
1-1-0
3.15
0-1-1
2.68
0-2-0
2.46
—
0-0-2
2.68
0-2-0
2.50
0-0-2
2.27
1-1-0
2.91
2-0-0
2.73
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.67
Molde
1-1-0
2.99
0-0-2
2.81
0-0-2
3.31
0-1-1
2.60
0-2-0
2.36
2-0-0
2.72
—
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
2.04
0-1-1
3.12
2-0-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.50
0-1-1
2.46
0-2-0
2.66
Odd Grenland
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.85
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
2.82
2-0-0
2.58
0-2-0
2.91
0-1-1
3.04
—
1-0-1
2.39
0-1-1
3.31
1-1-0
2.78
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.70
1-1-0
2.80
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.21
2-0-0
3.72
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
2.90
2-0-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.00
—
1-1-0
3.57
0-1-1
3.38
1-0-1
3.16
0-1-1
3.09
0-2-0
3.31
Sogndal
0-0-2
2.69
1-0-1
2.38
0-1-1
3.00
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.18
0-1-1
2.49
1-1-0
2.28
1-1-0
2.10
0-1-1
1.91
—
0-0-2
2.56
1-0-1
2.21
1-1-0
2.09
0-0-2
2.46
Stabaek
0-0-2
2.84
2-0-0
2.52
1-1-0
3.13
0-2-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
2.74
0-1-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.06
2-0-0
2.85
—
0-0-2
2.68
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.63
Tromso
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.74
1-0-1
3.26
0-1-1
2.91
1-1-0
2.42
0-0-2
2.83
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.74
—
1-1-0
2.59
2-0-0
2.63
Valerenga
2-0-0
2.85
1-1-0
2.69
1-1-0
3.30
2-0-0
2.89
2-0-0
2.44
0-1-1
2.82
1-1-0
2.96
2-0-0
2.69
1-1-0
2.34
0-1-1
3.37
1-0-1
3.18
0-1-1
2.82
—
0-2-0
2.80
Viking
0-2-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
3.21
1-0-1
2.72
0-1-1
2.43
0-1-1
2.72
0-2-0
2.74
0-1-1
2.59
0-2-0
2.10
2-0-0
2.96
2-0-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.76
0-2-0
2.60
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.28 +5.0
Allowed 0.50 -5.7
Differential 0.85 +5.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.59%6.59%6.59%3.30%1.10%0.27%24.45%
16.59%14.84%6.59%3.02%1.65%1.10%33.79%
26.59%6.59%6.04%1.65%2.20%0.82%23.90%
33.30%3.02%1.65%1.10%0.27%0.27%9.62%
41.10%1.65%2.20%0.27%0.55%—5.77%
5+0.27%1.10%0.82%0.27%——2.47%
Total24.45%33.79%23.90%9.62%5.77%2.47%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.26 1.26 1.78
CV 0.86 0.86 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 182

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%15.38%11.54%11.54%3.85%—53.85%
1—7.69%3.85%3.85%——15.38%
23.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
3—7.69%————7.69%
4———————
5+——3.85%3.85%——7.69%
Total15.38%38.46%23.08%19.23%3.85%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.58 -0.50
SD 1.52 1.10 1.84
CV 1.41 0.70 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.69%————7.69%
111.54%11.54%11.54%3.85%—3.85%42.31%
27.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%3.85%—26.92%
33.85%3.85%3.85%—3.85%—15.38%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total23.08%34.62%23.08%7.69%7.69%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 1.54 +0.23
SD 1.18 1.36 1.75
CV 0.67 0.89 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%—11.54%3.85%——19.23%
111.54%3.85%—3.85%3.85%—23.08%
2—7.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%7.69%38.46%
37.69%—3.85%3.85%——15.38%
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total23.08%11.54%26.92%19.23%11.54%7.69%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 2.08 -0.46
SD 1.10 1.57 1.84
CV 0.68 0.76 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%11.54%——3.85%26.92%
111.54%19.23%7.69%———38.46%
27.69%3.85%3.85%—3.85%—19.23%
33.85%—7.69%———11.54%
4———————
5+—3.85%————3.85%
Total30.77%30.77%30.77%—3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.27 +0.04
SD 1.23 1.25 1.82
CV 0.94 0.99 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%11.54%3.85%—3.85%—23.08%
13.85%23.08%——3.85%—30.77%
23.85%—15.38%3.85%——23.08%
33.85%—————3.85%
47.69%3.85%————11.54%
5+—7.69%————7.69%
Total23.08%46.15%19.23%3.85%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.27 +0.46
SD 1.56 1.12 2.14
CV 0.90 0.88 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.54%3.85%7.69%———23.08%
111.54%19.23%7.69%—3.85%3.85%46.15%
211.54%7.69%7.69%———26.92%
3———————
4——3.85%———3.85%
5+———————
Total34.62%30.77%26.92%—3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.19 -0.04
SD 0.92 1.27 1.51
CV 0.80 1.06 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%—3.85%——15.38%
1—26.92%11.54%3.85%3.85%3.85%50.00%
27.69%7.69%3.85%3.85%——23.08%
37.69%3.85%————11.54%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.08%42.31%15.38%11.54%3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.42 -0.12
SD 0.88 1.30 1.73
CV 0.68 0.91 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%3.85%11.54%3.85%——26.92%
13.85%7.69%3.85%———15.38%
27.69%—11.54%—7.69%—26.92%
33.85%3.85%3.85%——3.85%15.38%
43.85%—3.85%—3.85%—11.54%
5+——3.85%———3.85%
Total26.92%15.38%38.46%3.85%11.54%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.69 +0.12
SD 1.50 1.44 1.86
CV 0.83 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%—7.69%3.85%——15.38%
17.69%7.69%3.85%—7.69%—26.92%
211.54%—7.69%———19.23%
37.69%11.54%—3.85%——23.08%
4—7.69%—3.85%——11.54%
5+3.85%—————3.85%
Total34.62%26.92%19.23%11.54%7.69%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.31 +0.69
SD 1.41 1.29 2.11
CV 0.71 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.85%3.85%7.69%—3.85%—19.23%
1—11.54%11.54%15.38%——38.46%
2—11.54%—3.85%7.69%—23.08%
3—3.85%—7.69%——11.54%
4——3.85%—3.85%—7.69%
5+———————
Total3.85%30.77%23.08%26.92%15.38%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.19 -0.69
SD 1.17 1.17 1.44
CV 0.78 0.53 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%11.54%7.69%11.54%——38.46%
1—15.38%7.69%7.69%——30.77%
27.69%15.38%———3.85%26.92%
3—3.85%————3.85%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.38%46.15%15.38%19.23%—3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.96 1.54 -0.58
SD 0.92 1.21 1.60
CV 0.95 0.78 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.38%—7.69%——23.08%
13.85%11.54%11.54%3.85%——30.77%
211.54%15.38%3.85%———30.77%
3—3.85%3.85%———7.69%
43.85%3.85%————7.69%
5+———————
Total19.23%50.00%19.23%11.54%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.23 +0.23
SD 1.17 0.91 1.73
CV 0.80 0.74 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%—7.69%———15.38%
119.23%19.23%7.69%———46.15%
27.69%3.85%7.69%———19.23%
37.69%—————7.69%
4—7.69%3.85%———11.54%
5+———————
Total42.31%30.77%26.92%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.54 0.85 +0.69
SD 1.21 0.83 1.44
CV 0.78 0.99 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.38%11.54%3.85%—3.85%—34.62%
17.69%23.08%3.85%——3.85%38.46%
23.85%3.85%7.69%———15.38%
3———————
4——7.69%———7.69%
5+——3.85%———3.85%
Total26.92%38.46%26.92%—3.85%3.85%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.27 -0.08
SD 1.36 1.22 1.60
CV 1.14 0.96 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 26

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1741 48 42.60 +5.40 81.0% 31 33 38 42 47 53 58
Valerenga 1736 48 37.63 +10.37 98.0% 19 27 34 38 42 46 50
Lillestrom 1701 35 38.72 -3.72 29.0% 25 27 35 39 44 48 52
Brann 1687 40 34.83 +5.17 85.0% 18 25 31 35 39 44 47
Odd Grenland 1677 35 37.62 -2.62 36.0% 21 28 33 37 41 48 53
Viking 1669 33 35.85 -2.85 34.0% 20 26 32 36 40 46 51
Hamarkameratene 1666 38 34.61 +3.39 76.0% 20 23 30 35 38 46 51
Tromso 1661 40 36.74 +3.26 78.0% 18 28 32 37 40 48 50
Molde 1660 31 34.19 -3.19 31.0% 19 24 30 34 38 44 47
Lyn Oslo 1658 37 33.31 +3.69 71.0% 18 22 29 33 38 44 51
Stabaek 1623 27 34.49 -7.49 14.0% 22 22 30 34 39 45 52
Bodo Glimt 1611 27 32.30 -5.30 19.0% 18 21 29 32 36 42 52
Fredrikstad 1610 32 27.10 +4.90 86.0% 13 19 23 27 31 35 41
Sogndal 1584 22 32.40 -10.40 2.0% 22 23 28 32 36 42 47

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.13%
Clear Edge
44.51%29.12%26.37%
Elo Value
Home Edge
186 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
063.70500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.34+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.7
Open
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Rosenborg, 1st of 14
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.92 * Some Luck: 4.92 to 7.38 * Lucky: 7.38 to 9.84 * Wild Swing: 9.84 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.62 * Close: 2.62 to 3.92 * Off: 3.92 to 5.23 * Way Off: 5.23 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 14 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 14 * As Expected: 14 to 22.4 * Several Outliers: 22.4 to 30.8 * Many Outliers: 30.8 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.11 * A Surprise: 1.11 to 1.78 * Several Surprises: 1.78 to 2.44 * Many Surprises: 2.44 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.70 points
Some Luck
06.1515
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.71
Close
03.278
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.43%
98.00%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.57%
2.00%
Sogndal
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 14
Minimal Outliers
01.47
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.12

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 45.69
1.14
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
58%
Even
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
71%
Even
50%72%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Very Even
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.14
Weak Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.17 * Above Noise: 0.17 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.86
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.47
Overconfident
0.3138021.001.6862
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1110.25

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011121314
Rosenborg35.00%21.00%10.00%3.00%9.00%4.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%3.00%————
Valerenga8.00%12.00%12.00%14.00%14.00%10.00%4.00%6.00%—6.00%4.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%
Brann2.00%6.00%6.00%14.00%5.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%
Tromso7.00%7.00%9.00%6.00%12.00%9.00%8.00%12.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%8.00%—2.00%
Hamarkameratene5.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%6.00%10.00%10.00%9.00%5.00%7.00%7.00%11.00%10.00%3.00%
Lyn Oslo4.00%5.00%4.00%8.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%3.00%11.00%12.00%7.00%8.00%14.00%7.00%
Lillestrom14.00%13.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%4.00%4.00%10.00%4.00%1.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%
Odd Grenland10.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%5.00%13.00%10.00%9.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Viking6.00%2.00%10.00%8.00%12.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%11.00%4.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%
Fredrikstad——1.00%—2.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%7.00%5.00%13.00%5.00%21.00%38.00%
Molde—8.00%6.00%6.00%5.00%5.00%13.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%5.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%
Bodo Glimt5.00%1.00%2.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%4.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%15.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%
Stabaek3.00%7.00%6.00%8.00%4.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%9.00%10.00%8.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%
Sogndal1.00%4.00%9.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%5.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%9.00%17.00%13.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Rosenborg 100% — —
Odd Grenland 95.00% 3.00% 2.00%
Tromso 90.00% 8.00% 2.00%
Valerenga 90.00% 6.00% 4.00%
Lillestrom 91.00% 4.00% 5.00%
Viking 86.00% 6.00% 8.00%
Brann 84.00% 6.00% 10.00%
Molde 77.00% 11.00% 12.00%
Hamarkameratene 76.00% 11.00% 13.00%
Stabaek 75.00% 12.00% 13.00%
Bodo Glimt 68.00% 11.00% 21.00%
Lyn Oslo 71.00% 8.00% 21.00%
Sogndal 61.00% 9.00% 30.00%
Fredrikstad 36.00% 5.00% 59.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-04-12 Brann W 1-056.0 1708 1660 49.98% 28.25% 21.76%+0.60 +4.0 3
2004-04-12 @ Rosenborg L 0-156.0 1660 1708 21.76% 28.25% 49.98%-0.60 -4.1 0
2004-04-12 Fredrikstad W 2-050.4 1673 1608 52.29% 27.42% 20.29%+0.69 +7.1 3
2004-04-12 @ Lillestrom L 0-250.4 1608 1673 20.29% 27.42% 52.29%-0.69 -7.1 0
2004-04-12 Hamarkameratene D 1-169.4 1654 1653 43.73% 29.95% 26.32%+0.35 -0.6 1
2004-04-12 @ Sogndal D 1-169.4 1653 1654 26.32% 29.95% 43.73%-0.35 +0.6 1
2004-04-12 Lyn Oslo W 2-053.1 1664 1653 45.14% 29.64% 25.22%+0.40 +8.7 3
2004-04-12 @ Molde L 0-253.1 1653 1664 25.22% 29.64% 45.14%-0.40 -8.7 0
2004-04-12 Stabaek W 2-054.7 1669 1687 41.04% 30.42% 28.54%+0.24 +9.6 3
2004-04-12 @ Odd Grenland L 0-254.7 1687 1669 28.54% 30.42% 41.04%-0.24 -9.6 0
2004-04-12 Viking W 4-052.6 1643 1680 38.38% 30.72% 30.91%+0.14 +19.4 3
2004-04-12 @ Tromso L 0-452.6 1680 1643 30.91% 30.72% 38.38%-0.14 -19.4 0
2004-04-13 Bodo Glimt W 1-058.4 1659 1677 41.09% 30.41% 28.50%+0.25 +5.1 3
2004-04-13 @ Valerenga L 0-158.4 1677 1659 28.50% 30.41% 41.09%-0.25 -5.1 0
2004-04-18 Molde W 3-052.1 1656 1673 41.30% 30.38% 28.32%+0.25 +13.9 3
2004-04-18 @ Brann L 0-352.1 1673 1656 28.32% 30.38% 41.30%-0.25 -13.9 3
2004-04-18 Odd Grenland L 0-258.8 1672 1678 42.62% 30.16% 27.22%+0.30 -12.8 0
2004-04-18 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-058.8 1678 1672 27.22% 30.16% 42.62%-0.30 +12.8 6
2004-04-18 Rosenborg L 0-254.2 1600 1712 28.28% 30.37% 41.35%-0.26 -9.5 0
2004-04-18 @ Fredrikstad W 2-054.2 1712 1600 41.35% 30.37% 28.28%+0.26 +9.5 6
2004-04-18 Sogndal W 3-158.2 1677 1653 46.89% 29.20% 23.91%+0.47 +7.2 3
2004-04-18 @ Stabaek L 1-358.2 1653 1677 23.91% 29.20% 46.89%-0.47 -7.2 1
2004-04-18 Tromso D 1-169.4 1653 1663 42.28% 30.22% 27.50%+0.29 -0.5 2
2004-04-18 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-169.4 1663 1653 27.50% 30.22% 42.28%-0.29 +0.5 4
2004-04-19 Valerenga D 1-169.3 1644 1664 40.82% 30.45% 28.73%+0.24 -0.4 1
2004-04-19 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-169.3 1664 1644 28.73% 30.45% 40.82%-0.24 +0.4 4
2004-04-25 Bodo Glimt L 1-267.2 1646 1659 41.83% 30.30% 27.88%+0.27 -6.3 1
2004-04-25 @ Sogndal W 2-167.2 1659 1646 27.88% 30.30% 41.83%-0.27 +6.3 3
2004-04-25 Brann W 1-057.9 1664 1670 42.75% 30.14% 27.11%+0.31 +4.9 7
2004-04-25 @ Valerenga L 0-157.9 1670 1664 27.11% 30.14% 42.75%-0.31 -4.9 3
2004-04-25 Fredrikstad L 0-163.5 1659 1591 52.66% 27.28% 20.06%+0.71 -8.0 3
2004-04-25 @ Molde W 1-063.5 1591 1659 20.06% 27.28% 52.66%-0.71 +8.0 3
2004-04-25 Lillestrom W 1-058.4 1663 1680 41.26% 30.38% 28.36%+0.25 +5.1 7
2004-04-25 @ Tromso L 0-158.4 1680 1663 28.36% 30.38% 41.26%-0.25 -5.1 3
2004-04-25 Lyn Oslo D 0-066.0 1691 1644 50.01% 28.24% 21.74%+0.60 -1.0 7
2004-04-25 @ Odd Grenland D 0-066.0 1644 1691 21.74% 28.24% 50.01%-0.60 +1.0 2
2004-04-25 Stabaek D 0-065.3 1653 1685 39.12% 30.65% 30.23%+0.17 -0.3 3
2004-04-25 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-065.3 1685 1653 30.23% 30.65% 39.12%-0.17 +0.3 4
2004-04-25 Viking D 0-066.6 1721 1661 51.69% 27.65% 20.66%+0.67 -1.2 7
2004-04-25 @ Rosenborg D 0-066.6 1661 1721 20.66% 27.65% 51.69%-0.67 +1.2 1
2004-05-01 Molde D 1-169.6 1662 1651 45.13% 29.64% 25.22%+0.40 -0.6 2
2004-05-01 @ Viking D 1-169.6 1651 1662 25.22% 29.64% 45.13%-0.40 +0.6 4
2004-05-02 Hamarkameratene L 0-259.1 1665 1652 45.30% 29.60% 25.09%+0.41 -13.4 3
2004-05-02 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-059.1 1652 1665 25.09% 29.60% 45.30%-0.41 +13.4 6
2004-05-02 Odd Grenland D 1-169.8 1665 1690 40.10% 30.54% 29.36%+0.21 -0.3 4
2004-05-02 @ Brann D 1-169.8 1690 1665 29.36% 30.54% 40.10%-0.21 +0.3 8
2004-05-02 Rosenborg D 2-275.5 1675 1720 37.17% 30.80% 32.02%+0.10 -0.1 4
2004-05-02 @ Lillestrom D 2-275.5 1720 1675 32.02% 30.80% 37.17%-0.10 +0.1 8
2004-05-02 Sogndal W 2-052.9 1645 1640 44.27% 29.84% 25.89%+0.37 +8.9 5
2004-05-02 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-252.9 1640 1645 25.89% 29.84% 44.27%-0.37 -8.9 1
2004-05-02 Tromso L 1-268.7 1685 1668 45.89% 29.46% 24.65%+0.43 -6.8 4
2004-05-02 @ Stabaek W 2-168.7 1668 1685 24.65% 29.46% 45.89%-0.43 +6.8 10
2004-05-03 Valerenga D 2-274.1 1599 1669 33.64% 30.87% 35.50%-0.03 +0.0 4
2004-05-03 @ Fredrikstad D 2-274.1 1669 1599 35.50% 30.87% 33.64%+0.03 -0.0 8
2004-05-09 Bodo Glimt L 2-565.3 1678 1652 47.22% 29.11% 23.67%+0.48 -14.7 4
2004-05-09 @ Stabaek W 5-265.3 1652 1678 23.67% 29.11% 47.22%-0.48 +14.7 6
2004-05-09 Brann W 3-160.2 1631 1665 38.79% 30.68% 30.53%+0.16 +8.8 4
2004-05-09 @ Sogndal L 1-360.2 1665 1631 30.53% 30.68% 38.79%-0.16 -8.8 4
2004-05-09 Fredrikstad W 5-255.2 1691 1599 55.68% 26.02% 18.31%+0.83 +6.8 11
2004-05-09 @ Odd Grenland L 2-555.2 1599 1691 18.31% 26.02% 55.68%-0.83 -6.8 4
2004-05-09 Lillestrom D 2-275.0 1652 1675 40.36% 30.51% 29.13%+0.22 -0.3 5
2004-05-09 @ Molde D 2-275.0 1675 1652 29.13% 30.51% 40.36%-0.22 +0.3 5
2004-05-09 Lyn Oslo W 1-056.9 1666 1654 45.28% 29.61% 25.11%+0.41 +4.6 9
2004-05-09 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-156.9 1654 1666 25.11% 29.61% 45.28%-0.41 -4.6 5
2004-05-09 Viking D 0-065.5 1669 1661 44.63% 29.76% 25.61%+0.38 -0.7 9
2004-05-09 @ Valerenga D 0-065.5 1661 1669 25.61% 29.76% 44.63%-0.38 +0.7 3
2004-05-10 Rosenborg W 4-159.0 1675 1720 37.19% 30.80% 32.01%+0.10 +12.8 13
2004-05-10 @ Tromso L 1-459.0 1720 1675 32.01% 30.80% 37.19%-0.10 -12.8 8
2004-05-12 Lillestrom D 1-169.6 1662 1675 41.82% 30.30% 27.88%+0.27 -0.4 4
2004-05-12 @ Viking D 1-169.6 1675 1662 27.88% 30.30% 41.82%-0.27 +0.4 6
2004-05-16 Hamarkameratene W 2-054.2 1656 1671 41.59% 30.33% 28.07%+0.27 +9.5 7
2004-05-16 @ Brann L 0-254.2 1671 1656 28.07% 30.33% 41.59%-0.27 -9.5 9
2004-05-16 Molde L 0-260.7 1707 1651 51.15% 27.85% 21.01%+0.64 -14.7 8
2004-05-16 @ Rosenborg W 2-060.7 1651 1707 21.01% 27.85% 51.15%-0.64 +14.7 8
2004-05-16 Odd Grenland D 2-275.2 1662 1697 38.58% 30.70% 30.72%+0.15 -0.2 5
2004-05-16 @ Viking D 2-275.2 1697 1662 30.72% 30.70% 38.58%-0.15 +0.2 12
2004-05-16 Sogndal D 3-377.5 1592 1640 36.90% 30.82% 32.29%+0.09 -0.1 5
2004-05-16 @ Fredrikstad D 3-377.5 1640 1592 32.29% 30.82% 36.90%-0.09 +0.1 5
2004-05-16 Stabaek W 2-054.1 1649 1663 41.57% 30.34% 28.09%+0.26 +9.5 8
2004-05-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-254.1 1663 1649 28.09% 30.34% 41.57%-0.26 -9.5 4
2004-05-16 Tromso W 2-163.9 1666 1688 40.58% 30.48% 28.94%+0.23 +4.8 9
2004-05-16 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-263.9 1688 1666 28.94% 30.48% 40.58%-0.23 -4.9 13
2004-05-16 Valerenga L 0-163.1 1675 1668 44.54% 29.78% 25.68%+0.38 -7.0 6
2004-05-16 @ Lillestrom W 1-063.1 1668 1675 25.68% 29.78% 44.54%-0.38 +7.0 12
2004-05-19 Rosenborg D 2-275.4 1675 1693 41.16% 30.40% 28.44%+0.25 -0.3 13
2004-05-19 @ Valerenga D 2-275.4 1693 1675 28.44% 30.40% 41.16%-0.25 +0.3 9
2004-05-20 Brann W 2-163.1 1654 1666 41.95% 30.28% 27.77%+0.28 +4.7 7
2004-05-20 @ Stabaek L 1-263.1 1666 1654 27.77% 30.28% 41.95%-0.28 -4.7 7
2004-05-20 Fredrikstad W 3-264.0 1661 1592 52.80% 27.22% 19.98%+0.71 +3.3 12
2004-05-20 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-364.0 1592 1661 19.98% 27.22% 52.80%-0.71 -3.3 5
2004-05-20 Lillestrom W 3-266.9 1698 1668 47.58% 29.01% 23.42%+0.50 +3.9 15
2004-05-20 @ Odd Grenland L 2-366.9 1668 1698 23.42% 29.01% 47.58%-0.50 -3.9 6
2004-05-20 Lyn Oslo D 0-065.5 1671 1659 45.32% 29.60% 25.08%+0.41 -0.7 10
2004-05-20 @ Bodo Glimt D 0-065.5 1659 1671 25.08% 29.60% 45.32%-0.41 +0.7 9
2004-05-20 Molde W 2-162.2 1683 1666 45.91% 29.46% 24.64%+0.43 +4.3 16
2004-05-20 @ Tromso L 1-262.2 1666 1683 24.64% 29.46% 45.91%-0.43 -4.3 8
2004-05-20 Viking L 0-257.7 1640 1662 40.53% 30.49% 28.99%+0.22 -12.4 5
2004-05-20 @ Sogndal W 2-057.7 1662 1640 28.99% 30.49% 40.53%-0.22 +12.4 8
2004-05-23 Bodo Glimt W 3-159.6 1661 1670 42.28% 30.22% 27.50%+0.29 +8.1 10
2004-05-23 @ Brann L 1-359.6 1670 1661 27.50% 30.22% 42.28%-0.29 -8.1 10
2004-05-23 Hamarkameratene L 0-163.1 1674 1664 44.90% 29.70% 25.40%+0.39 -7.1 8
2004-05-23 @ Viking W 1-063.1 1664 1674 25.40% 29.70% 44.90%-0.39 +7.1 15
2004-05-23 Odd Grenland W 2-054.6 1693 1701 42.42% 30.20% 27.38%+0.30 +9.3 12
2004-05-23 @ Rosenborg L 0-254.6 1701 1693 27.38% 30.20% 42.42%-0.30 -9.3 15
2004-05-23 Sogndal W 1-055.6 1664 1627 48.62% 28.69% 22.68%+0.54 +4.2 9
2004-05-23 @ Lillestrom L 0-155.6 1627 1664 22.68% 28.69% 48.62%-0.54 -4.2 5
2004-05-23 Stabaek L 0-255.0 1589 1659 33.67% 30.87% 35.46%-0.03 -10.9 5
2004-05-23 @ Fredrikstad W 2-055.0 1659 1589 35.46% 30.87% 33.67%+0.03 +10.9 10
2004-05-23 Tromso W 2-164.1 1659 1687 39.67% 30.59% 29.74%+0.19 +5.0 12
2004-05-23 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-264.1 1687 1659 29.74% 30.59% 39.67%-0.19 -5.0 16
2004-05-24 Valerenga D 1-169.6 1662 1675 41.72% 30.31% 27.97%+0.27 -0.4 9
2004-05-24 @ Molde D 1-169.6 1675 1662 27.97% 30.31% 41.72%-0.27 +0.4 14
2004-05-31 Brann L 1-267.8 1664 1669 42.90% 30.11% 26.99%+0.32 -6.5 12
2004-05-31 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-167.8 1669 1664 26.99% 30.11% 42.90%-0.32 +6.5 13
2004-05-31 Fredrikstad L 0-357.6 1662 1578 54.77% 26.41% 18.82%+0.80 -22.5 10
2004-05-31 @ Bodo Glimt W 3-057.6 1578 1662 18.82% 26.41% 54.77%-0.80 +22.5 8
2004-05-31 Lillestrom D 1-169.8 1671 1669 43.98% 29.90% 26.12%+0.36 -0.6 16
2004-05-31 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-169.8 1669 1671 26.12% 29.90% 43.98%-0.36 +0.6 10
2004-05-31 Rosenborg D 3-378.9 1623 1702 32.38% 30.82% 36.80%-0.08 +0.1 6
2004-05-31 @ Sogndal D 3-378.9 1702 1623 36.80% 30.82% 32.38%+0.08 -0.1 13
2004-05-31 Valerenga W 2-053.7 1682 1676 44.50% 29.79% 25.71%+0.38 +8.8 19
2004-05-31 @ Tromso L 0-253.7 1676 1682 25.71% 29.79% 44.50%-0.38 -8.8 14
2004-05-31 Viking L 0-162.9 1670 1667 43.95% 29.90% 26.14%+0.36 -7.0 10
2004-05-31 @ Stabaek W 1-062.9 1667 1670 26.14% 29.90% 43.95%-0.36 +7.0 11
2004-06-01 Molde D 1-170.2 1692 1661 47.78% 28.95% 23.27%+0.51 -0.8 16
2004-06-01 @ Odd Grenland D 1-170.2 1661 1692 23.27% 28.95% 47.78%-0.51 +0.8 10
2004-06-06 Bodo Glimt D 1-169.8 1674 1640 48.21% 28.82% 22.97%+0.52 -0.8 12
2004-06-06 @ Viking D 1-169.8 1640 1674 22.97% 28.82% 48.21%-0.52 +0.8 11
2004-06-06 Hamarkameratene W 5-051.0 1702 1671 47.86% 28.92% 23.21%+0.51 +18.9 16
2004-06-06 @ Rosenborg L 0-551.0 1671 1702 23.21% 28.92% 47.86%-0.51 -18.9 16
2004-06-06 Lyn Oslo L 2-465.2 1600 1658 35.47% 30.87% 33.66%+0.03 -8.7 8
2004-06-06 @ Fredrikstad W 4-265.2 1658 1600 33.66% 30.87% 35.47%-0.03 +8.7 15
2004-06-06 Odd Grenland W 1-058.9 1667 1691 40.14% 30.54% 29.32%+0.21 +5.2 17
2004-06-06 @ Valerenga L 0-158.9 1691 1667 29.32% 30.54% 40.14%-0.21 -5.2 16
2004-06-06 Sogndal D 1-169.5 1662 1623 48.87% 28.62% 22.52%+0.55 -0.9 11
2004-06-06 @ Molde D 1-169.5 1623 1662 22.52% 28.62% 48.87%-0.55 +0.9 7
2004-06-06 Tromso W 1-058.6 1676 1691 41.42% 30.36% 28.22%+0.26 +5.0 16
2004-06-06 @ Brann L 0-158.6 1691 1676 28.22% 30.36% 41.42%-0.26 -5.0 19
2004-06-07 Stabaek W 3-051.2 1669 1663 44.49% 29.79% 25.72%+0.38 +12.8 13
2004-06-07 @ Lillestrom L 0-351.2 1663 1669 25.72% 29.79% 44.49%-0.38 -12.8 10
2004-06-09 Bodo Glimt W 3-048.5 1721 1641 54.29% 26.62% 19.10%+0.77 +9.7 19
2004-06-09 @ Rosenborg L 0-348.5 1641 1721 19.10% 26.62% 54.29%-0.77 -9.7 11
2004-06-13 Fredrikstad W 4-259.0 1681 1592 55.34% 26.17% 18.49%+0.82 +5.0 19
2004-06-13 @ Brann L 2-459.0 1592 1681 18.49% 26.17% 55.34%-0.82 -5.0 8
2004-06-13 Lillestrom L 0-454.2 1631 1682 36.37% 30.84% 32.79%+0.07 -21.7 11
2004-06-13 @ Bodo Glimt W 4-054.2 1682 1631 32.79% 30.84% 36.37%-0.07 +21.7 16
2004-06-13 Molde W 5-155.4 1652 1661 42.29% 30.22% 27.49%+0.29 +14.8 19
2004-06-13 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-555.4 1661 1652 27.49% 30.22% 42.29%-0.29 -14.8 11
2004-06-13 Odd Grenland W 2-054.1 1686 1686 43.57% 29.98% 26.45%+0.34 +9.0 22
2004-06-13 @ Tromso L 0-254.1 1686 1686 26.45% 29.98% 43.57%-0.34 -9.0 16
2004-06-13 Valerenga W 2-164.4 1624 1672 36.83% 30.82% 32.35%+0.08 +5.3 10
2004-06-13 @ Sogndal L 1-264.4 1672 1624 32.35% 30.82% 36.83%-0.08 -5.3 17
2004-06-13 Viking W 2-054.1 1666 1673 42.68% 30.15% 27.17%+0.31 +9.2 18
2004-06-13 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-254.1 1673 1666 27.17% 30.15% 42.68%-0.31 -9.2 12
2004-06-14 Rosenborg D 1-169.9 1650 1731 32.11% 30.81% 37.08%-0.09 +0.2 11
2004-06-14 @ Stabaek D 1-169.9 1731 1650 37.08% 30.81% 32.11%+0.09 -0.2 20
2004-06-20 Fredrikstad W 3-262.9 1695 1587 57.77% 25.05% 17.18%+0.92 +2.8 25
2004-06-20 @ Tromso L 2-362.9 1587 1695 17.18% 25.05% 57.77%-0.92 -2.8 8
2004-06-20 Hamarkameratene W 2-053.7 1667 1667 43.57% 29.98% 26.44%+0.34 +9.0 20
2004-06-20 @ Valerenga L 0-253.7 1667 1667 26.44% 29.98% 43.57%-0.34 -9.0 19
2004-06-20 Lyn Oslo D 1-170.4 1704 1676 47.41% 29.06% 23.54%+0.49 -0.8 17
2004-06-20 @ Lillestrom D 1-170.4 1676 1704 23.54% 29.06% 47.41%-0.49 +0.8 19
2004-06-20 Sogndal D 4-481.4 1677 1629 50.03% 28.24% 21.73%+0.60 -0.5 17
2004-06-20 @ Odd Grenland D 4-481.4 1629 1677 21.73% 28.24% 50.03%-0.60 +0.5 11
2004-06-20 Stabaek W 3-051.2 1646 1650 43.11% 30.07% 26.82%+0.32 +13.3 14
2004-06-20 @ Molde L 0-351.2 1650 1646 26.82% 30.07% 43.11%-0.32 -13.3 11
2004-06-21 Brann W 4-264.3 1664 1686 40.53% 30.49% 28.99%+0.22 +7.5 15
2004-06-21 @ Viking L 2-464.3 1686 1664 28.99% 30.49% 40.53%-0.22 -7.5 19
2004-06-27 Lillestrom L 1-559.9 1678 1703 40.11% 30.54% 29.35%+0.21 -19.4 19
2004-06-27 @ Brann W 5-159.9 1703 1678 29.35% 30.54% 40.11%-0.21 +19.4 20
2004-06-27 Molde D 0-064.4 1609 1660 36.44% 30.84% 32.72%+0.07 -0.1 12
2004-06-27 @ Bodo Glimt D 0-064.4 1660 1609 32.72% 30.84% 36.44%-0.07 +0.1 15
2004-06-27 Odd Grenland L 2-467.8 1658 1677 40.95% 30.43% 28.62%+0.24 -9.7 19
2004-06-27 @ Hamarkameratene W 4-267.8 1677 1658 28.62% 30.43% 40.95%-0.24 +9.7 20
2004-06-27 Tromso W 2-165.6 1630 1698 33.93% 30.87% 35.19%-0.02 +5.6 14
2004-06-27 @ Sogndal L 1-265.6 1698 1630 35.19% 30.87% 33.93%+0.02 -5.6 25
2004-06-27 Valerenga W 2-055.1 1637 1676 38.09% 30.74% 31.17%+0.13 +10.3 14
2004-06-27 @ Stabaek L 0-255.1 1676 1637 31.17% 30.74% 38.09%-0.13 -10.3 20
2004-06-27 Viking D 0-064.2 1584 1671 31.28% 30.75% 37.97%-0.13 +0.2 9
2004-06-27 @ Fredrikstad D 0-064.2 1671 1584 37.97% 30.75% 31.28%+0.13 -0.2 16
2004-06-28 Rosenborg L 0-257.4 1676 1731 35.91% 30.86% 33.23%+0.05 -11.3 19
2004-06-28 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-057.4 1731 1676 33.23% 30.86% 35.91%-0.05 +11.4 23
2004-07-04 Lillestrom L 1-455.7 1584 1722 25.26% 29.65% 45.09%-0.40 -10.7 9
2004-07-04 @ Fredrikstad W 4-155.7 1722 1584 45.09% 29.65% 25.26%+0.40 +10.7 23
2004-07-04 Molde L 1-268.0 1665 1660 44.31% 29.83% 25.86%+0.37 -6.6 19
2004-07-04 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-168.0 1660 1665 25.86% 29.83% 44.31%-0.37 +6.6 18
2004-07-04 Odd Grenland D 0-065.2 1647 1686 38.05% 30.74% 31.20%+0.13 -0.2 15
2004-07-04 @ Stabaek D 0-065.2 1686 1647 31.20% 30.74% 38.05%-0.13 +0.2 21
2004-07-04 Sogndal W 3-266.7 1648 1635 45.31% 29.60% 25.09%+0.41 +4.1 22
2004-07-04 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-366.7 1635 1648 25.09% 29.60% 45.31%-0.41 -4.1 14
2004-07-04 Tromso L 1-267.5 1671 1692 40.61% 30.48% 28.91%+0.23 -6.2 16
2004-07-04 @ Viking W 2-167.5 1692 1671 28.91% 30.48% 40.61%-0.23 +6.2 28
2004-07-04 Valerenga L 1-265.0 1609 1665 35.61% 30.87% 33.52%+0.04 -5.6 12
2004-07-04 @ Bodo Glimt W 2-165.0 1665 1609 33.52% 30.87% 35.61%-0.04 +5.6 23
2004-07-05 Rosenborg L 3-473.2 1659 1742 31.81% 30.79% 37.40%-0.11 -4.8 19
2004-07-05 @ Brann W 4-373.2 1742 1659 37.40% 30.79% 31.81%+0.11 +4.8 26
2004-07-25 Bodo Glimt L 3-572.1 1686 1603 54.60% 26.49% 18.92%+0.79 -11.3 21
2004-07-25 @ Odd Grenland W 5-372.1 1603 1686 18.92% 26.49% 54.60%-0.79 +11.3 15
2004-07-25 Brann L 2-373.2 1666 1654 45.32% 29.60% 25.08%+0.41 -6.4 18
2004-07-25 @ Molde W 3-273.2 1654 1666 25.08% 29.60% 45.32%-0.41 +6.4 22
2004-07-25 Fredrikstad W 3-152.5 1747 1573 65.48% 20.99% 13.53%+1.27 +3.9 29
2004-07-25 @ Rosenborg L 1-352.5 1573 1747 13.53% 20.99% 65.48%-1.27 -3.9 9
2004-07-25 Hamarkameratene L 0-358.2 1698 1652 49.86% 28.30% 21.85%+0.59 -21.0 28
2004-07-25 @ Tromso W 3-058.2 1652 1698 21.85% 28.30% 49.86%-0.59 +21.0 25
2004-07-25 Stabaek L 1-266.7 1631 1647 41.45% 30.36% 28.19%+0.26 -6.3 14
2004-07-25 @ Sogndal W 2-166.7 1647 1631 28.19% 30.36% 41.45%-0.26 +6.3 18
2004-07-25 Viking W 5-153.0 1733 1665 52.70% 27.26% 20.04%+0.71 +11.1 26
2004-07-25 @ Lillestrom L 1-553.0 1665 1733 20.04% 27.26% 52.70%-0.71 -11.1 16
2004-07-26 Lyn Oslo L 1-268.3 1671 1659 45.30% 29.60% 25.09%+0.41 -6.7 23
2004-07-26 @ Valerenga W 2-168.3 1659 1671 25.09% 29.60% 45.30%-0.41 +6.7 22
2004-08-01 Hamarkameratene D 1-169.5 1653 1673 40.77% 30.45% 28.78%+0.23 -0.4 19
2004-08-01 @ Stabaek D 1-169.5 1673 1653 28.78% 30.45% 40.77%-0.23 +0.4 26
2004-08-01 Molde W 2-165.1 1569 1660 30.86% 30.71% 38.42%-0.14 +6.0 12
2004-08-01 @ Fredrikstad L 1-265.1 1660 1569 38.42% 30.71% 30.86%+0.14 -5.9 18
2004-08-01 Odd Grenland D 2-275.2 1665 1675 42.21% 30.23% 27.56%+0.29 -0.3 23
2004-08-01 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-275.2 1675 1665 27.56% 30.23% 42.21%-0.29 +0.3 22
2004-08-01 Rosenborg D 1-170.1 1654 1751 30.02% 30.63% 39.35%-0.18 +0.3 17
2004-08-01 @ Viking D 1-170.1 1751 1654 39.35% 30.63% 30.02%+0.18 -0.3 30
2004-08-01 Sogndal W 3-158.3 1615 1625 42.15% 30.24% 27.61%+0.29 +8.1 18
2004-08-01 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-358.3 1625 1615 27.61% 30.24% 42.15%-0.29 -8.1 14
2004-08-01 Tromso D 2-276.7 1744 1678 52.50% 27.34% 20.16%+0.70 -0.8 27
2004-08-01 @ Lillestrom D 2-276.7 1678 1744 20.16% 27.34% 52.50%-0.70 +0.8 29
2004-08-02 Valerenga D 1-169.6 1660 1664 43.01% 30.09% 26.90%+0.32 -0.5 23
2004-08-02 @ Brann D 1-169.6 1664 1660 26.90% 30.09% 43.01%-0.32 +0.5 24
2004-08-08 Bodo Glimt L 0-259.9 1673 1623 50.41% 28.11% 21.48%+0.61 -14.6 26
2004-08-08 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-059.9 1623 1673 21.48% 28.11% 50.41%-0.61 +14.6 21
2004-08-08 Brann L 0-259.4 1675 1660 45.75% 29.50% 24.76%+0.43 -13.5 22
2004-08-08 @ Odd Grenland W 2-059.4 1660 1675 24.76% 29.50% 45.75%-0.43 +13.5 26
2004-08-08 Fredrikstad W 3-046.6 1665 1575 55.40% 26.14% 18.46%+0.82 +9.4 27
2004-08-08 @ Valerenga L 0-346.6 1575 1665 18.46% 26.14% 55.40%-0.82 -9.4 12
2004-08-08 Lillestrom W 4-157.2 1751 1743 44.58% 29.77% 25.65%+0.38 +10.8 33
2004-08-08 @ Rosenborg L 1-457.2 1743 1751 25.65% 29.77% 44.58%-0.38 -10.8 27
2004-08-08 Lyn Oslo D 1-168.8 1617 1665 36.81% 30.82% 32.36%+0.08 -0.1 15
2004-08-08 @ Sogndal D 1-168.8 1665 1617 32.36% 30.82% 36.81%-0.08 +0.1 24
2004-08-08 Stabaek W 2-161.7 1678 1653 47.11% 29.14% 23.75%+0.48 +4.1 32
2004-08-08 @ Tromso L 1-261.7 1653 1678 23.75% 29.14% 47.11%-0.48 -4.1 19
2004-08-09 Viking D 1-169.4 1654 1654 43.61% 29.98% 26.42%+0.34 -0.6 19
2004-08-09 @ Molde D 1-169.4 1654 1654 26.42% 29.98% 43.61%-0.34 +0.5 18
2004-08-21 Tromso W 3-049.1 1761 1682 54.07% 26.71% 19.22%+0.77 +9.8 36
2004-08-21 @ Rosenborg L 0-349.1 1682 1761 19.22% 26.71% 54.07%-0.77 -9.8 32
2004-08-22 Hamarkameratene D 1-169.7 1665 1659 44.43% 29.80% 25.76%+0.38 -0.6 25
2004-08-22 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-169.7 1659 1665 25.76% 29.80% 44.43%-0.38 +0.6 27
2004-08-22 Odd Grenland W 3-053.9 1566 1662 30.18% 30.64% 39.17%-0.17 +17.5 15
2004-08-22 @ Fredrikstad L 0-353.9 1662 1566 39.17% 30.64% 30.18%+0.17 -17.5 22
2004-08-22 Sogndal W 2-160.0 1673 1617 51.18% 27.84% 20.99%+0.65 +3.7 29
2004-08-22 @ Brann L 1-260.0 1617 1673 20.99% 27.84% 51.18%-0.65 -3.7 15
2004-08-22 Stabaek W 3-159.1 1637 1648 42.05% 30.26% 27.69%+0.28 +8.1 24
2004-08-22 @ Bodo Glimt L 1-359.1 1648 1637 27.69% 30.26% 42.05%-0.28 -8.1 19
2004-08-22 Valerenga D 1-169.5 1655 1674 40.83% 30.45% 28.72%+0.24 -0.4 19
2004-08-22 @ Viking D 1-169.5 1674 1655 28.72% 30.45% 40.83%-0.24 +0.4 28
2004-08-23 Molde D 1-171.2 1733 1654 54.07% 26.71% 19.22%+0.77 -1.2 28
2004-08-23 @ Lillestrom D 1-171.2 1654 1733 19.22% 26.71% 54.07%-0.77 +1.2 20
2004-08-29 Brann W 2-163.5 1659 1677 41.15% 30.40% 28.45%+0.25 +4.8 30
2004-08-29 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-263.5 1677 1659 28.45% 30.40% 41.15%-0.25 -4.8 29
2004-08-29 Fredrikstad L 2-467.1 1613 1584 47.61% 29.00% 23.39%+0.50 -10.8 15
2004-08-29 @ Sogndal W 4-267.1 1584 1613 23.39% 29.00% 47.61%-0.50 +10.8 18
2004-08-29 Lillestrom W 2-056.7 1675 1731 35.56% 30.87% 33.57%+0.04 +10.8 31
2004-08-29 @ Valerenga L 0-256.7 1731 1675 33.57% 30.87% 35.56%-0.04 -10.8 28
2004-08-29 Lyn Oslo L 0-161.6 1640 1664 40.20% 30.53% 29.27%+0.21 -6.5 19
2004-08-29 @ Stabaek W 1-061.6 1664 1640 29.27% 30.53% 40.20%-0.21 +6.5 28
2004-08-29 Rosenborg L 1-360.4 1655 1771 27.68% 30.26% 42.06%-0.28 -8.1 20
2004-08-29 @ Molde W 3-160.4 1771 1655 42.06% 30.26% 27.68%+0.28 +8.1 39
2004-08-29 Viking W 1-057.6 1644 1654 42.23% 30.23% 27.54%+0.29 +4.9 25
2004-08-29 @ Odd Grenland L 0-157.6 1654 1644 27.54% 30.23% 42.23%-0.29 -5.0 19
2004-08-30 Bodo Glimt W 2-052.4 1673 1646 47.29% 29.09% 23.62%+0.49 +8.2 35
2004-08-30 @ Tromso L 0-252.4 1646 1673 23.62% 29.09% 47.29%-0.49 -8.2 24
2004-09-11 Valerenga L 1-465.1 1779 1685 55.96% 25.89% 18.15%+0.85 -19.3 39
2004-09-11 @ Rosenborg W 4-165.1 1685 1779 18.15% 25.89% 55.96%-0.85 +19.3 34
2004-09-12 Bodo Glimt W 1-055.9 1671 1637 48.17% 28.83% 23.00%+0.52 +4.2 31
2004-09-12 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-155.9 1637 1671 23.00% 28.83% 48.17%-0.52 -4.3 24
2004-09-12 Hamarkameratene W 2-164.8 1594 1664 33.67% 30.87% 35.46%-0.03 +5.6 21
2004-09-12 @ Fredrikstad L 1-264.8 1664 1594 35.46% 30.87% 33.67%+0.03 -5.6 30
2004-09-12 Odd Grenland L 0-458.6 1721 1649 53.08% 27.11% 19.81%+0.72 -28.7 28
2004-09-12 @ Lillestrom W 4-058.6 1649 1721 19.81% 27.11% 53.08%-0.72 +28.7 28
2004-09-12 Sogndal W 4-260.2 1649 1602 49.93% 28.27% 21.80%+0.59 +5.9 22
2004-09-12 @ Viking L 2-460.2 1602 1649 21.80% 28.27% 49.93%-0.59 -5.9 15
2004-09-12 Tromso D 1-169.4 1647 1681 38.78% 30.68% 30.54%+0.16 -0.3 21
2004-09-12 @ Molde D 1-169.4 1681 1647 30.54% 30.68% 38.78%-0.16 +0.2 36
2004-09-13 Stabaek L 1-268.8 1672 1634 48.79% 28.64% 22.56%+0.55 -7.1 29
2004-09-13 @ Brann W 2-168.8 1634 1672 22.56% 28.64% 48.79%-0.55 +7.1 22
2004-09-18 Viking L 1-267.8 1659 1655 44.07% 29.88% 26.05%+0.36 -6.6 30
2004-09-18 @ Hamarkameratene W 2-167.8 1655 1659 26.05% 29.88% 44.07%-0.36 +6.6 25
2004-09-19 Brann D 1-169.1 1633 1665 39.09% 30.65% 30.25%+0.17 -0.3 25
2004-09-19 @ Bodo Glimt D 1-169.1 1665 1633 30.25% 30.65% 39.09%-0.17 +0.3 30
2004-09-19 Fredrikstad D 1-168.8 1641 1600 49.12% 28.54% 22.34%+0.56 -0.9 23
2004-09-19 @ Stabaek D 1-168.8 1600 1641 22.34% 28.54% 49.12%-0.56 +0.9 22
2004-09-19 Lyn Oslo L 0-163.2 1681 1675 44.40% 29.81% 25.79%+0.37 -7.0 36
2004-09-19 @ Tromso W 1-063.2 1675 1681 25.79% 29.81% 44.40%-0.37 +7.0 34
2004-09-19 Molde W 4-154.3 1705 1646 51.42% 27.75% 20.83%+0.66 +9.0 37
2004-09-19 @ Valerenga L 1-454.3 1646 1705 20.83% 27.75% 51.42%-0.66 -9.0 21
2004-09-19 Rosenborg W 3-055.7 1678 1760 32.01% 30.80% 37.18%-0.10 +16.9 31
2004-09-19 @ Odd Grenland L 0-355.7 1760 1678 37.18% 30.80% 32.01%+0.10 -16.9 39
2004-09-20 Lillestrom L 0-451.9 1596 1692 30.24% 30.65% 39.11%-0.17 -19.1 15
2004-09-20 @ Sogndal W 4-051.9 1692 1596 39.11% 30.65% 30.24%+0.17 +19.1 31
2004-09-25 Sogndal W 3-152.8 1743 1577 64.60% 21.49% 13.91%+1.23 +4.0 42
2004-09-25 @ Rosenborg L 1-352.8 1577 1743 13.91% 21.49% 64.60%-1.23 -4.0 15
2004-09-26 Bodo Glimt W 1-057.5 1601 1633 39.11% 30.65% 30.24%+0.17 +5.3 25
2004-09-26 @ Fredrikstad L 0-157.5 1633 1601 30.24% 30.65% 39.11%-0.17 -5.3 25
2004-09-26 Hamarkameratene L 0-164.7 1711 1652 51.48% 27.73% 20.79%+0.66 -7.9 31
2004-09-26 @ Lillestrom W 1-064.7 1652 1711 20.79% 27.73% 51.48%-0.66 +7.9 33
2004-09-26 Lyn Oslo W 5-156.1 1665 1682 41.22% 30.39% 28.39%+0.25 +15.1 33
2004-09-26 @ Brann L 1-556.1 1682 1665 28.39% 30.39% 41.22%-0.25 -15.1 34
2004-09-26 Odd Grenland W 2-165.2 1637 1695 35.45% 30.87% 33.68%+0.03 +5.4 24
2004-09-26 @ Molde L 1-265.2 1695 1637 33.68% 30.87% 35.45%-0.03 -5.4 31
2004-09-26 Stabaek W 1-056.3 1662 1640 46.56% 29.29% 24.15%+0.46 +4.5 28
2004-09-26 @ Viking L 0-156.3 1640 1662 24.15% 29.29% 46.56%-0.46 -4.5 23
2004-09-27 Tromso D 1-170.6 1714 1674 48.95% 28.59% 22.46%+0.55 -0.9 38
2004-09-27 @ Valerenga D 1-170.6 1674 1714 22.46% 28.59% 48.95%-0.55 +0.9 37
2004-10-03 Brann L 0-162.8 1675 1680 42.83% 30.12% 27.05%+0.31 -6.8 37
2004-10-03 @ Tromso W 1-062.8 1680 1675 27.05% 30.12% 42.83%-0.31 +6.8 36
2004-10-03 Fredrikstad D 2-275.1 1667 1606 51.76% 27.62% 20.62%+0.67 -0.8 35
2004-10-03 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-275.1 1606 1667 20.62% 27.62% 51.76%-0.67 +0.8 26
2004-10-03 Molde W 2-164.0 1573 1643 33.72% 30.87% 35.41%-0.03 +5.6 18
2004-10-03 @ Sogndal L 1-264.0 1643 1573 35.41% 30.87% 33.72%+0.03 -5.6 24
2004-10-03 Rosenborg W 2-058.0 1660 1747 31.31% 30.75% 37.94%-0.13 +11.8 36
2004-10-03 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-258.0 1747 1660 37.94% 30.75% 31.31%+0.13 -11.8 42
2004-10-03 Valerenga L 2-468.2 1690 1713 40.33% 30.51% 29.16%+0.22 -9.5 31
2004-10-03 @ Odd Grenland W 4-268.2 1713 1690 29.16% 30.51% 40.33%-0.22 +9.6 41
2004-10-03 Viking D 2-274.5 1627 1666 38.14% 30.74% 31.12%+0.13 -0.2 26
2004-10-03 @ Bodo Glimt D 2-274.5 1666 1627 31.12% 30.74% 38.14%-0.13 +0.2 29
2004-10-04 Lillestrom D 1-169.5 1636 1703 34.01% 30.87% 35.11%-0.02 +0.0 24
2004-10-04 @ Stabaek D 1-169.5 1703 1636 35.11% 30.87% 34.01%+0.02 -0.0 32
2004-10-16 Stabaek L 1-270.9 1735 1636 56.70% 25.55% 17.74%+0.88 -8.0 42
2004-10-16 @ Rosenborg W 2-170.9 1636 1735 17.74% 25.55% 56.70%-0.88 +8.0 27
2004-10-17 Bodo Glimt D 0-066.4 1703 1627 53.67% 26.88% 19.46%+0.75 -1.3 33
2004-10-17 @ Lillestrom D 0-066.4 1627 1703 19.46% 26.88% 53.67%-0.75 +1.3 27
2004-10-17 Brann W 3-270.8 1607 1687 32.24% 30.82% 36.95%-0.09 +5.5 29
2004-10-17 @ Fredrikstad L 2-370.8 1687 1607 36.95% 30.82% 32.24%+0.09 -5.5 36
2004-10-17 Hamarkameratene D 0-065.0 1637 1672 38.75% 30.69% 30.57%+0.16 -0.3 25
2004-10-17 @ Molde D 0-065.0 1672 1637 30.57% 30.69% 38.75%-0.16 +0.3 37
2004-10-17 Lyn Oslo D 0-065.5 1666 1666 43.58% 29.98% 26.44%+0.34 -0.6 30
2004-10-17 @ Viking D 0-065.5 1666 1666 26.44% 29.98% 43.58%-0.34 +0.6 36
2004-10-17 Sogndal D 0-067.2 1722 1579 62.00% 22.91% 15.09%+1.11 -1.8 42
2004-10-17 @ Valerenga D 0-067.2 1579 1722 15.09% 22.91% 62.00%-1.11 +1.8 19
2004-10-18 Tromso W 3-158.9 1680 1668 45.21% 29.63% 25.16%+0.41 +7.5 34
2004-10-18 @ Odd Grenland L 1-358.9 1668 1680 25.16% 29.63% 45.21%-0.41 -7.5 37
2004-10-24 Lillestrom D 1-169.8 1667 1702 38.70% 30.69% 30.61%+0.16 -0.3 37
2004-10-24 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-169.8 1702 1667 30.61% 30.69% 38.70%-0.16 +0.2 34
2004-10-24 Molde L 1-363.9 1644 1637 44.48% 29.79% 25.72%+0.38 -11.5 27
2004-10-24 @ Stabaek W 3-163.9 1637 1644 25.72% 29.79% 44.48%-0.38 +11.5 28
2004-10-24 Odd Grenland W 4-266.8 1581 1688 28.83% 30.46% 40.71%-0.23 +9.6 22
2004-10-24 @ Sogndal L 2-466.8 1688 1581 40.71% 30.46% 28.83%+0.23 -9.6 34
2004-10-24 Rosenborg L 0-159.0 1629 1727 29.81% 30.60% 39.59%-0.19 -5.3 27
2004-10-24 @ Bodo Glimt W 1-059.0 1727 1629 39.59% 30.60% 29.81%+0.19 +5.3 45
2004-10-24 Tromso W 1-058.9 1612 1661 36.79% 30.82% 32.39%+0.08 +5.6 32
2004-10-24 @ Fredrikstad L 0-158.9 1661 1612 32.39% 30.82% 36.79%-0.08 -5.6 37
2004-10-24 Valerenga L 0-161.5 1672 1721 36.73% 30.83% 32.44%+0.08 -6.1 37
2004-10-24 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-061.5 1721 1672 32.44% 30.83% 36.73%-0.08 +6.1 45
2004-10-24 Viking W 1-057.1 1682 1666 45.79% 29.49% 24.72%+0.43 +4.5 39
2004-10-24 @ Brann L 0-157.1 1666 1682 24.72% 29.49% 45.79%-0.43 -4.5 30
2004-10-30 Bodo Glimt W 3-049.6 1648 1623 47.02% 29.16% 23.82%+0.48 +12.0 31
2004-10-30 @ Molde L 0-349.6 1623 1648 23.82% 29.16% 47.02%-0.48 -12.0 27
2004-10-30 Brann D 2-275.8 1702 1686 45.73% 29.50% 24.77%+0.43 -0.5 35
2004-10-30 @ Lillestrom D 2-275.8 1686 1702 24.77% 29.50% 45.73%-0.43 +0.5 40
2004-10-30 Fredrikstad W 5-257.0 1661 1618 49.42% 28.44% 22.14%+0.57 +8.2 33
2004-10-30 @ Viking L 2-557.0 1618 1661 22.14% 28.44% 49.42%-0.57 -8.2 32
2004-10-30 Hamarkameratene D 2-275.4 1678 1666 45.24% 29.62% 25.14%+0.41 -0.5 35
2004-10-30 @ Odd Grenland D 2-275.4 1666 1678 25.14% 29.62% 45.24%-0.41 +0.5 38
2004-10-30 Lyn Oslo W 4-154.4 1733 1667 52.42% 27.37% 20.21%+0.70 +8.7 48
2004-10-30 @ Rosenborg L 1-454.4 1667 1733 20.21% 27.37% 52.42%-0.70 -8.7 37
2004-10-30 Sogndal W 3-155.4 1655 1590 52.25% 27.44% 20.31%+0.69 +6.2 40
2004-10-30 @ Tromso L 1-355.4 1590 1655 20.31% 27.44% 52.25%-0.69 -6.2 22
2004-10-30 Stabaek W 3-048.0 1727 1632 56.06% 25.85% 18.10%+0.85 +9.2 48
2004-10-30 @ Valerenga L 0-348.0 1632 1727 18.10% 25.85% 56.06%-0.85 -9.2 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-10-16 17.74% Stabaek 1636 2 @ Rosenborg 1735 1
2 2004-09-11 18.15% Valerenga 1685 4 @ Rosenborg 1779 1
3 2004-05-31 18.82% Fredrikstad 1578 3 @ Bodo Glimt 1662 0
4 2004-07-25 18.92% Bodo Glimt 1603 5 @ Odd Grenland 1686 3
5 2004-09-12 19.81% Odd Grenland 1649 4 @ Lillestrom 1721 0
6 2004-04-25 20.06% Fredrikstad 1591 1 @ Molde 1659 0
7 2004-09-26 20.79% Hamarkameratene 1652 1 @ Lillestrom 1711 0
8 2004-05-16 21.01% Molde 1651 2 @ Rosenborg 1707 0
9 2004-08-08 21.48% Bodo Glimt 1623 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1673 0
10 2004-07-25 21.85% Hamarkameratene 1652 3 @ Tromso 1698 0
11 2004-09-13 22.56% Stabaek 1634 2 @ Brann 1672 1
12 2004-08-29 23.39% Fredrikstad 1584 4 @ Sogndal 1613 2
13 2004-05-09 23.67% Bodo Glimt 1652 5 @ Stabaek 1678 2
14 2004-05-02 24.65% Tromso 1668 2 @ Stabaek 1685 1
15 2004-08-08 24.76% Brann 1660 2 @ Odd Grenland 1675 0
16 2004-07-25 25.08% Brann 1654 3 @ Molde 1666 2
17 2004-05-02 25.09% Hamarkameratene 1652 2 @ Bodo Glimt 1665 0
18 2004-07-26 25.09% Lyn Oslo 1659 2 @ Valerenga 1671 1
19 2004-05-23 25.40% Hamarkameratene 1664 1 @ Viking 1674 0
20 2004-05-16 25.68% Valerenga 1668 1 @ Lillestrom 1675 0
21 2004-10-24 25.72% Molde 1637 3 @ Stabaek 1644 1
22 2004-09-19 25.79% Lyn Oslo 1675 1 @ Tromso 1681 0
23 2004-07-04 25.86% Molde 1660 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1665 1
24 2004-09-18 26.05% Viking 1655 2 @ Hamarkameratene 1659 1
25 2004-05-31 26.14% Viking 1667 1 @ Stabaek 1670 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-09-12 28.73 Odd Grenland 4 1649 19.81% @ Lillestrom 0 1721 53.08% 27.11%
2 2004-05-31 22.51 Fredrikstad 3 1578 18.82% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1662 54.77% 26.41%
3 2004-06-13 21.73 Lillestrom 4 1682 32.79% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1631 36.37% 30.84%
4 2004-07-25 20.97 Hamarkameratene 3 1652 21.85% @ Tromso 0 1698 49.86% 28.30%
5 2004-06-27 19.42 Lillestrom 5 1703 29.35% @ Brann 1 1678 40.11% 30.54%
6 2004-04-12 19.37 @ Tromso 4 1643 38.38% Viking 0 1680 30.91% 30.72%
7 2004-09-11 19.29 Valerenga 4 1685 18.15% @ Rosenborg 1 1779 55.96% 25.89%
8 2004-09-20 19.06 Lillestrom 4 1692 39.11% @ Sogndal 0 1596 30.24% 30.65%
9 2004-06-06 18.94 @ Rosenborg 5 1702 47.86% Hamarkameratene 0 1671 23.21% 28.92%
10 2004-08-22 17.53 @ Fredrikstad 3 1566 30.18% Odd Grenland 0 1662 39.17% 30.64%
11 2004-09-19 16.90 @ Odd Grenland 3 1678 32.01% Rosenborg 0 1760 37.18% 30.80%
12 2004-09-26 15.13 @ Brann 5 1665 41.22% Lyn Oslo 1 1682 28.39% 30.39%
13 2004-06-13 14.76 @ Hamarkameratene 5 1652 42.29% Molde 1 1661 27.49% 30.22%
14 2004-05-16 14.72 Molde 2 1651 21.01% @ Rosenborg 0 1707 51.15% 27.85%
15 2004-05-09 14.71 Bodo Glimt 5 1652 23.67% @ Stabaek 2 1678 47.22% 29.11%
16 2004-08-08 14.56 Bodo Glimt 2 1623 21.48% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1673 50.41% 28.11%
17 2004-04-18 13.88 @ Brann 3 1656 41.30% Molde 0 1673 28.32% 30.38%
18 2004-08-08 13.53 Brann 2 1660 24.76% @ Odd Grenland 0 1675 45.75% 29.50%
19 2004-05-02 13.43 Hamarkameratene 2 1652 25.09% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1665 45.30% 29.60%
20 2004-06-20 13.30 @ Molde 3 1646 43.11% Stabaek 0 1650 26.82% 30.07%
21 2004-06-07 12.85 @ Lillestrom 3 1669 44.49% Stabaek 0 1663 25.72% 29.79%
22 2004-04-18 12.84 Odd Grenland 2 1678 27.22% @ Bodo Glimt 0 1672 42.62% 30.16%
23 2004-05-10 12.82 @ Tromso 4 1675 37.19% Rosenborg 1 1720 32.01% 30.80%
24 2004-05-20 12.38 Viking 2 1662 28.99% @ Sogndal 0 1640 40.53% 30.49%
25 2004-10-30 12.04 @ Molde 3 1648 47.02% Bodo Glimt 0 1623 23.82% 29.16%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-06-20 81.4 @ Odd Grenland 4 1677 50.03% Sogndal 4 1629 21.73% 28.24%
2 2004-05-31 78.9 @ Sogndal 3 1623 32.38% Rosenborg 3 1702 36.80% 30.82%
3 2004-05-16 77.5 @ Fredrikstad 3 1592 36.90% Sogndal 3 1640 32.29% 30.82%
4 2004-08-01 76.7 @ Lillestrom 2 1744 52.50% Tromso 2 1678 20.16% 27.34%
5 2004-10-30 75.8 @ Lillestrom 2 1702 45.73% Brann 2 1686 24.77% 29.50%
6 2004-05-02 75.5 @ Lillestrom 2 1675 37.17% Rosenborg 2 1720 32.02% 30.80%
7 2004-05-19 75.4 @ Valerenga 2 1675 41.16% Rosenborg 2 1693 28.44% 30.40%
8 2004-10-30 75.4 @ Odd Grenland 2 1678 45.24% Hamarkameratene 2 1666 25.14% 29.62%
9 2004-05-16 75.2 @ Viking 2 1662 38.58% Odd Grenland 2 1697 30.72% 30.70%
10 2004-08-01 75.2 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1665 42.21% Odd Grenland 2 1675 27.56% 30.23%
11 2004-10-03 75.1 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1667 51.76% Fredrikstad 2 1606 20.62% 27.62%
12 2004-05-09 75.0 @ Molde 2 1652 40.36% Lillestrom 2 1675 29.13% 30.51%
13 2004-10-03 74.5 @ Bodo Glimt 2 1627 38.14% Viking 2 1666 31.12% 30.74%
14 2004-05-03 74.1 @ Fredrikstad 2 1599 33.64% Valerenga 2 1669 35.50% 30.87%
15 2004-07-05 73.2 Rosenborg 4 1742 37.40% @ Brann 3 1659 31.81% 30.79%
16 2004-07-25 73.2 Brann 3 1654 25.08% @ Molde 2 1666 45.32% 29.60%
17 2004-07-25 72.1 Bodo Glimt 5 1603 18.92% @ Odd Grenland 3 1686 54.60% 26.49%
18 2004-08-23 71.2 @ Lillestrom 1 1733 54.07% Molde 1 1654 19.22% 26.71%
19 2004-10-16 70.9 Stabaek 2 1636 17.74% @ Rosenborg 1 1735 56.70% 25.55%
20 2004-10-17 70.8 @ Fredrikstad 3 1607 32.24% Brann 2 1687 36.95% 30.82%
21 2004-09-27 70.6 @ Valerenga 1 1714 48.95% Tromso 1 1674 22.46% 28.59%
22 2004-06-20 70.4 @ Lillestrom 1 1704 47.41% Lyn Oslo 1 1676 23.54% 29.06%
23 2004-06-01 70.2 @ Odd Grenland 1 1692 47.78% Molde 1 1661 23.27% 28.95%
24 2004-08-01 70.1 @ Viking 1 1654 30.02% Rosenborg 1 1751 39.35% 30.63%
25 2004-06-14 69.9 @ Stabaek 1 1650 32.11% Rosenborg 1 1731 37.08% 30.81%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-08-08 46.6 @ Valerenga 3 1665 55.40% Fredrikstad 0 1575 18.46% 26.14%
2 2004-10-30 48.0 @ Valerenga 3 1727 56.06% Stabaek 0 1632 18.10% 25.85%
3 2004-06-09 48.5 @ Rosenborg 3 1721 54.29% Bodo Glimt 0 1641 19.10% 26.62%
4 2004-08-21 49.1 @ Rosenborg 3 1761 54.07% Tromso 0 1682 19.22% 26.71%
5 2004-10-30 49.6 @ Molde 3 1648 47.02% Bodo Glimt 0 1623 23.82% 29.16%
6 2004-04-12 50.4 @ Lillestrom 2 1673 52.29% Fredrikstad 0 1608 20.29% 27.42%
7 2004-06-06 51.0 @ Rosenborg 5 1702 47.86% Hamarkameratene 0 1671 23.21% 28.92%
8 2004-06-07 51.2 @ Lillestrom 3 1669 44.49% Stabaek 0 1663 25.72% 29.79%
9 2004-06-20 51.2 @ Molde 3 1646 43.11% Stabaek 0 1650 26.82% 30.07%
10 2004-09-20 51.9 Lillestrom 4 1692 39.11% @ Sogndal 0 1596 30.24% 30.65%
11 2004-04-18 52.1 @ Brann 3 1656 41.30% Molde 0 1673 28.32% 30.38%
12 2004-08-30 52.4 @ Tromso 2 1673 47.29% Bodo Glimt 0 1646 23.62% 29.09%
13 2004-07-25 52.5 @ Rosenborg 3 1747 65.48% Fredrikstad 1 1573 13.53% 20.99%
14 2004-04-12 52.6 @ Tromso 4 1643 38.38% Viking 0 1680 30.91% 30.72%
15 2004-09-25 52.8 @ Rosenborg 3 1743 64.60% Sogndal 1 1577 13.91% 21.49%
16 2004-05-02 52.9 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1645 44.27% Sogndal 0 1640 25.89% 29.84%
17 2004-07-25 53.0 @ Lillestrom 5 1733 52.70% Viking 1 1665 20.04% 27.26%
18 2004-04-12 53.1 @ Molde 2 1664 45.14% Lyn Oslo 0 1653 25.22% 29.64%
19 2004-05-31 53.7 @ Tromso 2 1682 44.50% Valerenga 0 1676 25.71% 29.79%
20 2004-06-20 53.7 @ Valerenga 2 1667 43.57% Hamarkameratene 0 1667 26.44% 29.98%
21 2004-08-22 53.9 @ Fredrikstad 3 1566 30.18% Odd Grenland 0 1662 39.17% 30.64%
22 2004-05-16 54.1 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1649 41.57% Stabaek 0 1663 28.09% 30.34%
23 2004-06-13 54.1 @ Tromso 2 1686 43.57% Odd Grenland 0 1686 26.45% 29.98%
24 2004-06-13 54.1 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1666 42.68% Viking 0 1673 27.17% 30.15%
25 2004-04-18 54.2 Rosenborg 2 1712 41.35% @ Fredrikstad 0 1600 28.28% 30.37%