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2002-03 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pennarossa

40 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Murata

7.46 points above expected

39 points · 31.54 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Montevito

7.88 points below expected

9 points · 16.88 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pennarossa 20 12 4 4 40 48 22 +26 36.08 +3.92
2 Murata 20 11 6 3 39 41 25 +16 31.54 +7.46
3 Domagnano 21 11 6 4 39 32 18 +14 36.86 +2.14
4 Cailungo 20 10 8 2 38 40 19 +21 36.84 +1.16
5 Faetano 20 10 6 4 36 31 19 +12 31.07 +4.93
6 Libertas 21 10 4 7 34 32 22 +10 38.46 -4.46
7 Virtus 21 8 8 5 32 32 27 +5 36.65 -4.65
8 Tre Penne 21 7 9 5 30 30 27 +3 23.77 +6.23
9 Folgore Falciano 20 6 7 7 25 24 27 -3 27.05 -2.05
10 Cosmos 21 5 10 6 25 29 38 -9 26.94 -1.94
11 Juvenes Dogana 21 4 11 6 23 23 28 -5 18.73 +4.27
12 Tre Fiori 21 4 8 9 20 25 32 -7 23.65 -3.65
13 San Giovanni 21 4 4 13 16 24 37 -13 20.87 -4.87
14 Montevito 20 1 6 13 9 21 48 -27 16.88 -7.88
15 La Fiorita 20 2 1 17 7 11 54 -43 11.16 -4.16

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Murata 39 31.54 +7.46
2 Tre Penne 30 23.77 +6.23
3 Faetano 36 31.07 +4.93
4 Juvenes Dogana 23 18.73 +4.27
5 Pennarossa 40 36.08 +3.92

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Montevito 9 16.88 -7.88
2 San Giovanni 16 20.87 -4.87
3 Virtus 32 36.65 -4.65
4 Libertas 34 38.46 -4.46
5 La Fiorita 7 11.16 -4.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cailungo 5 Oct 5 – Nov 3 1 in 77
2 Tre Penne 3 Nov 16 – Nov 30 1 in 35
3 Pennarossa 4 Mar 8 – Mar 30 1 in 21
4 Cosmos 2 Mar 11 – Mar 15 1 in 19
5 Virtus 3 Sep 21 – Oct 5 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Montevito 7 Feb 19 – Mar 26 1 in 92
2 Tre Fiori 5 Feb 23 – Mar 16 1 in 41
3 Pennarossa 2 Nov 10 – Nov 16 1 in 28
4 Cosmos 2 Sep 22 – Sep 28 1 in 21
5 La Fiorita 7 Nov 15 – Mar 9 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Juvenes Dogana 7 Nov 30 – Mar 15 1 in 459
2 Tre Penne 8 Nov 2 – Feb 23 1 in 135
3 Cosmos 7 Feb 26 – Mar 29 1 in 33
4 Cailungo 14 Sep 28 – Mar 8 1 in 30
5 Faetano 9 Nov 2 – Feb 22 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Libertas 4 Mar 5 – Mar 15 1 in 28
2 Cosmos 7 Sep 22 – Nov 1 1 in 22
3 Pennarossa 4 Sep 28 – Oct 22 1 in 13
4 Montevito 11 Sep 21 – Nov 30 1 in 12
5 San Giovanni 10 Dec 1 – Mar 23 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pennarossa 1027 40 +56 13 8.4 +4.6
Murata 995 39 +25 11 9.1 +1.9
Domagnano 1000 39 +13 10 8.1 +1.9
Cailungo 1019 38 -3 8 10.0 -2.0
Faetano 932 36 +35 10 8.3 +1.7
Libertas 928 34 -27 7 9.2 -2.2
Virtus 868 32 -97 4 8.2 -4.2
Tre Penne 851 30 +36 8 7.1 +0.9
Cosmos 861 25 +77 11 6.2 +4.8
Folgore Falciano 780 25 -59 3 5.7 -2.7
Juvenes Dogana 723 23 -6 7 5.3 +1.7
Tre Fiori 733 20 -16 3 5.4 -2.4
San Giovanni 697 16 +5 5 4.8 +0.2
Montevito 573 9 -84 1 3.8 -2.8
La Fiorita 555 7 +23 3 2.8 +0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FF JD LF LIB MON MUR PEN SG TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
1-0-0
1.95
0-1-0
1.53
1-0-1
3.24
1-1-0
4.01
1-0-0
2.25
2-0-0
4.62
1-0-0
1.14
1-1-0
4.51
0-2-0
3.05
1-0-1
2.57
1-0-0
1.91
0-1-0
1.99
0-1-0
2.17
0-1-0
1.45
Cosmos
0-0-1
0.75
—
1-0-1
1.58
0-1-0
1.02
0-1-0
1.07
1-1-0
3.54
0-0-1
2.12
0-1-1
2.35
1-0-0
1.66
0-1-0
0.98
0-0-1
0.98
0-1-1
3.44
1-1-0
2.94
0-2-0
3.08
1-1-0
1.82
Domagnano
0-1-0
1.15
1-0-1
3.81
—
0-1-0
1.35
0-1-0
1.59
0-2-0
4.41
1-0-0
2.45
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-0
2.17
1-0-0
1.37
0-0-1
1.28
2-0-0
3.88
1-0-1
3.92
2-0-0
3.87
1-1-0
2.60
Faetano
1-0-1
2.11
0-1-0
1.65
0-1-0
1.32
—
1-1-0
2.70
0-1-0
2.10
2-0-0
4.41
1-0-0
0.92
2-0-0
4.36
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.18
1-0-0
1.80
0-0-1
1.83
0-1-0
1.93
1-0-0
1.08
Folgore Falciano
0-1-1
1.41
0-1-0
1.61
0-1-0
1.09
0-1-1
2.64
—
0-1-0
2.01
2-0-0
4.13
0-0-1
0.96
2-0-0
3.57
1-0-1
2.17
0-1-1
1.83
1-0-0
1.67
0-1-0
1.57
0-0-1
1.29
0-0-1
1.15
Juvenes Dogana
0-0-1
0.50
0-1-1
1.83
0-2-0
1.07
0-1-0
0.62
0-1-0
0.70
—
1-0-0
1.53
1-1-0
1.14
1-0-0
1.81
0-0-1
0.62
0-0-1
0.60
0-2-0
2.36
0-1-1
2.27
0-2-0
1.98
1-0-1
1.11
La Fiorita
0-0-2
0.92
1-0-0
0.61
0-0-1
0.35
0-0-2
1.09
0-0-2
1.30
0-0-1
1.14
—
0-0-1
0.46
1-1-0
1.88
0-0-2
0.82
0-0-2
0.78
0-0-1
0.86
0-0-1
0.74
0-0-1
0.67
0-0-1
0.42
Libertas
0-0-1
1.53
1-1-0
3.04
1-0-1
2.77
0-0-1
1.76
1-0-0
1.72
0-1-1
4.33
1-0-0
2.30
—
0-1-0
2.14
0-0-1
1.64
1-0-0
1.33
2-0-0
4.10
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-1
4.13
0-1-1
3.12
Montevito
0-1-1
1.01
0-0-1
1.02
0-0-1
0.57
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-1
0.88
0-1-1
3.48
0-1-0
0.59
—
0-0-2
1.33
0-1-1
1.04
1-0-0
0.97
0-1-0
1.09
0-0-1
1.00
0-1-0
0.62
Murata
0-2-0
2.29
0-1-0
1.70
0-0-1
1.30
1-1-0
2.67
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-0
2.10
2-0-0
4.75
1-0-0
1.03
2-0-0
4.11
—
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-0
1.87
0-1-0
1.67
1-0-0
1.85
1-0-0
1.06
Pennarossa
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-0
1.70
1-0-0
1.39
1-0-1
3.17
1-1-0
3.54
1-0-0
2.12
2-0-0
4.80
0-0-1
1.34
1-1-0
4.48
1-1-0
2.80
—
1-0-0
2.08
1-0-0
1.87
0-0-1
2.13
0-1-0
1.33
San Giovanni
0-0-1
0.79
1-1-0
1.92
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-1
0.88
0-0-1
1.01
0-2-0
3.00
1-0-0
1.83
0-0-2
1.33
0-0-1
1.70
0-0-1
0.82
0-0-1
0.64
—
2-0-0
2.29
0-1-1
2.11
0-0-2
1.45
Tre Fiori
0-1-0
0.72
0-1-1
2.40
1-0-1
1.49
1-0-0
0.86
0-1-0
1.11
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-0
1.97
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-0
1.58
0-1-0
1.01
0-0-1
0.82
0-0-2
3.05
—
0-1-1
2.93
0-1-1
1.47
Tre Penne
0-1-0
0.57
0-2-0
2.27
0-0-2
1.53
0-1-0
0.77
1-0-0
1.38
0-2-0
3.39
1-0-0
2.04
1-0-1
1.30
1-0-0
1.67
0-0-1
0.84
1-0-0
0.59
1-1-0
3.24
1-1-0
2.41
—
0-1-1
1.39
Virtus
0-1-0
1.22
0-1-1
3.55
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-1
1.59
1-0-0
1.52
1-0-1
4.37
1-0-0
2.36
1-1-0
2.23
0-1-0
2.10
0-0-1
1.61
0-1-0
1.34
2-0-0
3.96
1-1-0
3.94
1-1-0
4.03
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.79 +10.7
Allowed 0.86 -9.5
Differential 0.94 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.19%7.14%5.52%1.95%0.97%0.65%21.43%
17.14%18.83%7.79%2.60%3.57%0.65%40.58%
25.52%7.79%5.84%1.95%0.32%0.32%21.75%
31.95%2.60%1.95%1.95%0.32%0.32%9.09%
40.97%3.57%0.32%0.32%——5.19%
5+0.65%0.65%0.32%0.32%——1.95%
Total21.43%40.58%21.75%9.09%5.19%1.95%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.27 1.27 1.84
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%—————15.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%———25.00%
220.00%——5.00%——25.00%
3——10.00%10.00%——20.00%
45.00%5.00%————10.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total50.00%20.00%15.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.95 +1.05
SD 1.41 1.15 1.61
CV 0.71 1.21 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.76%———4.76%9.52%
19.52%38.10%—4.76%14.29%—66.67%
2——9.52%———9.52%
34.76%—4.76%———9.52%
4———————
5+——4.76%———4.76%
Total14.29%42.86%19.05%4.76%14.29%4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 1.81 -0.43
SD 1.12 1.57 2.06
CV 0.81 0.87 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%9.52%————19.05%
123.81%14.29%9.52%———47.62%
2—4.76%4.76%———9.52%
3—9.52%————9.52%
44.76%4.76%—4.76%——14.29%
5+———————
Total38.10%42.86%14.29%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 0.86 +0.67
SD 1.33 0.85 1.32
CV 0.87 1.00 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%5.00%———20.00%
15.00%15.00%10.00%———30.00%
25.00%20.00%5.00%———30.00%
310.00%—5.00%———15.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+———————
Total30.00%45.00%25.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 0.95 +0.60
SD 1.15 0.76 1.39
CV 0.74 0.80 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
110.00%20.00%5.00%—5.00%—40.00%
210.00%5.00%15.00%———30.00%
3———————
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+———————
Total20.00%40.00%30.00%5.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.35 -0.15
SD 1.01 1.04 1.60
CV 0.84 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%—19.05%———23.81%
19.52%33.33%4.76%———47.62%
24.76%—14.29%4.76%——23.81%
3——4.76%———4.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.05%33.33%42.86%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.33 -0.24
SD 0.83 0.86 1.09
CV 0.76 0.64 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—15.00%20.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%55.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%40.00%
2———————
35.00%—————5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%20.00%25.00%10.00%25.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.55 2.70 -2.15
SD 0.76 2.08 2.28
CV 1.38 0.77 —
Max 3 9 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%9.52%4.76%———19.05%
123.81%14.29%9.52%———47.62%
24.76%——4.76%——9.52%
34.76%9.52%———4.76%19.05%
4———————
5+4.76%—————4.76%
Total42.86%33.33%14.29%4.76%—4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.05 +0.48
SD 1.44 1.43 1.94
CV 0.94 1.37 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%15.00%——25.00%
1—15.00%15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%50.00%
2—5.00%10.00%5.00%——20.00%
3———5.00%——5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—25.00%30.00%30.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.40 -1.35
SD 0.83 1.14 1.42
CV 0.79 0.48 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%————10.00%
15.00%15.00%5.00%—5.00%—30.00%
25.00%25.00%5.00%———35.00%
3———5.00%——5.00%
45.00%10.00%————15.00%
5+———5.00%——5.00%
Total20.00%55.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.25 +0.80
SD 1.50 1.07 1.64
CV 0.73 0.86 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%————5.00%
15.00%20.00%5.00%———30.00%
215.00%10.00%—5.00%5.00%—35.00%
35.00%—5.00%———10.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+—10.00%————10.00%
Total25.00%55.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 1.10 +1.30
SD 1.98 1.02 2.25
CV 0.83 0.93 —
Max 9 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%4.76%4.76%4.76%—28.57%
1—14.29%23.81%9.52%——47.62%
24.76%4.76%————9.52%
3—4.76%—4.76%——9.52%
4—4.76%————4.76%
5+———————
Total4.76%42.86%28.57%19.05%4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.76 -0.62
SD 1.11 1.00 1.66
CV 0.97 0.56 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%9.52%———19.05%
1—23.81%14.29%9.52%——47.62%
24.76%9.52%14.29%———28.57%
3—4.76%————4.76%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.76%47.62%38.10%9.52%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.52 -0.33
SD 0.81 0.75 1.20
CV 0.68 0.49 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.05%9.52%————28.57%
14.76%14.29%—4.76%4.76%—28.57%
24.76%14.29%4.76%———23.81%
3———4.76%4.76%—9.52%
4—4.76%4.76%———9.52%
5+———————
Total28.57%42.86%9.52%9.52%9.52%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.29 +0.14
SD 1.29 1.27 1.35
CV 0.90 0.99 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
1—23.81%4.76%———28.57%
24.76%19.05%4.76%4.76%—4.76%38.10%
3—9.52%————9.52%
4—4.76%————4.76%
5+———————
Total14.29%61.90%14.29%4.76%—4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.52 1.29 +0.24
SD 1.08 1.10 1.41
CV 0.71 0.86 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Domagnano 1087 39 36.86 +2.14 66.0% 24 26 33 37 41 45 52
Pennarossa 1024 40 36.08 +3.92 82.0% 20 27 33 36 39 46 48
Murata 993 39 31.54 +7.46 96.0% 19 22 28 32 35 39 43
Cailungo 973 38 36.84 +1.16 62.0% 21 28 33 36 41 45 50
Faetano 932 36 31.07 +4.93 88.0% 17 22 27 31 34 39 47
Libertas 914 34 38.46 -4.46 27.0% 26 29 33 39 42 47 49
Cosmos 861 25 26.94 -1.94 43.0% 14 18 23 27 30 35 42
Tre Penne 851 30 23.77 +6.23 86.0% 14 15 19 23 28 33 43
Virtus 846 32 36.65 -4.65 18.0% 24 28 34 37 40 44 49
Folgore Falciano 780 25 27.05 -2.05 39.0% 15 18 23 27 30 37 44
Tre Fiori 733 20 23.65 -3.65 27.0% 8 14 20 23 28 33 37
Juvenes Dogana 723 23 18.73 +4.27 84.0% 9 11 15 18 21 28 34
San Giovanni 697 16 20.87 -4.87 20.0% 10 12 17 21 24 28 35
Montevito 573 9 16.88 -7.88 2.0% 7 10 14 17 19 24 30
La Fiorita 555 7 11.16 -4.16 17.0% 2 4 9 11 14 18 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.65%
Clear Edge
34.42%31.82%33.77%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 2.26 Elo pts.
198 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2+0.01+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.0
Wide Open
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Pennarossa, 3rd of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.15 * Some Luck: 4.15 to 6.22 * Lucky: 6.22 to 8.29 * Wild Swing: 8.29 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.47 * Close: 1.47 to 2.2 * Off: 2.2 to 2.93 * Way Off: 2.93 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.64 points
Some Luck
05.1813
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.87
Close
01.834
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
96.00%
Murata
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
2.00%
Montevito
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Even
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 154.83
1.88
Moderate Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
80%
Clear Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 96%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Notable Separation
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.91
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.70
Near-Lock
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.
Probability calibration
0.48
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1470.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Libertas 2
Cailungo 1
Murata 3
Virtus 2

Second Round

Pennarossa 3
Libertas 2
Domagnano 4
Murata 1

Third Round

Libertas 1
Virtus 0
Murata 4
Cailungo 2

Quarterfinals

Domagnano 0
Pennarossa 0
Murata 3
Libertas 3

Semifinals

Domagnano 5
Libertas 1

Sim: 7.0%

Finals

Domagnano 2
Pennarossa 1

Sim: 3.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pennarossa37.00%33.00%19.00%5.00%5.00%1.00%——
Murata7.00%19.00%27.00%31.00%15.00%1.00%——
Domagnano29.00%33.00%25.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%——
Cailungo42.00%26.00%19.00%8.00%5.00%———
Faetano10.00%17.00%28.00%24.00%21.00%———
Libertas43.00%26.00%21.00%7.00%3.00%———
Virtus26.00%31.00%32.00%7.00%4.00%———
Tre Penne1.00%1.00%7.00%18.00%23.00%17.00%16.00%17.00%
Folgore Falciano4.00%5.00%7.00%31.00%44.00%9.00%——
Cosmos1.00%7.00%9.00%28.00%28.00%17.00%4.00%6.00%
Juvenes Dogana——1.00%4.00%8.00%16.00%28.00%43.00%
Tre Fiori—2.00%2.00%22.00%18.00%26.00%22.00%8.00%
San Giovanni——3.00%7.00%13.00%21.00%30.00%26.00%
Montevito———1.00%9.00%69.00%21.00%—
La Fiorita————1.00%20.00%79.00%—

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Cailungo 13.00%
Cosmos 83.00%
Domagnano 13.00%
Faetano 45.00%
Folgore Falciano 84.00%
Juvenes Dogana 99.00%
La Fiorita 100%
Libertas 10.00%
Montevito 100%
Murata 47.00%
Pennarossa 11.00%
San Giovanni 97.00%
Tre Fiori 96.00%
Tre Penne 91.00%
Virtus 11.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenes DoganaLibertasMontevitoMurataPennarossaSan GiovanniTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo60.0%5.00%66.7%15.00%100.0%1.00%64.3%14.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%83.3%12.00%
Cosmos40.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%
Domagnano33.3%15.00%90.0%10.00%75.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%12.00%57.9%19.00%
Faetano66.7%3.00%10.0%10.00%72.7%11.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%62.5%8.00%
Folgore Falciano0.0%1.00%25.0%8.00%0.0%6.00%0.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%
Juvenes Dogana0.0%1.00%
Libertas35.7%14.00%27.3%11.00%100.0%6.00%40.0%10.00%25.0%8.00%
Montevito0.0%1.00%
Murata75.0%4.00%33.3%12.00%60.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%64.7%17.00%
Pennarossa0.0%1.00%42.1%19.00%75.0%8.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%61.5%13.00%
San Giovanni0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Tre Penne100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Virtus16.7%12.00%37.5%8.00%60.0%5.00%35.3%17.00%38.5%13.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLibertasMurataPennarossaSan GiovanniTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo100.0%1.00%71.4%14.00%66.7%9.00%66.7%3.00%57.1%14.00%90.9%11.00%62.5%8.00%68.8%16.00%
Cosmos0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Domagnano28.6%14.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%5.00%58.3%12.00%40.0%5.00%52.9%17.00%90.0%10.00%
Faetano33.3%9.00%0.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%85.7%7.00%100.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano33.3%3.00%33.3%3.00%
Libertas42.9%14.00%50.0%2.00%41.7%12.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%8.00%28.6%14.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%66.7%6.00%
Murata9.1%11.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%8.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%1.00%
Pennarossa37.5%8.00%47.1%17.00%14.3%7.00%66.7%3.00%71.4%14.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%1.00%69.2%13.00%
San Giovanni0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Virtus31.2%16.00%100.0%1.00%10.0%10.00%0.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%0.0%1.00%30.8%13.00%0.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLibertasMurataPennarossaTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo50.0%18.00%80.0%5.00%50.0%8.00%25.0%4.00%62.5%16.00%100.0%2.00%
Cosmos100.0%1.00%
Domagnano50.0%18.00%0.0%1.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%42.9%7.00%50.0%4.00%
Faetano20.0%5.00%25.0%4.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Libertas50.0%8.00%50.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%
Murata75.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%
Pennarossa37.5%16.00%57.1%7.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%40.0%5.00%66.7%3.00%
Tre Penne0.0%1.00%
Virtus0.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2002-09-20 Faetano L 1-249.4 916 858 42.34% 32.54% 25.11%+0.30 -18.2 0
2002-09-20 @ Cailungo W 2-149.4 858 916 25.11% 32.54% 42.34%-0.30 +18.2 3
2002-09-21 Montevito W 4-138.9 832 769 42.93% 32.48% 24.59%+0.33 +30.3 3
2002-09-21 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-438.9 769 832 24.59% 32.48% 42.93%-0.33 -30.3 0
2002-09-21 Juvenes Dogana D 1-151.3 926 668 63.27% 26.64% 10.09%+1.31 -5.4 1
2002-09-21 @ Domagnano D 1-151.3 668 926 10.09% 26.64% 63.27%-1.31 +5.4 1
2002-09-21 San Giovanni W 3-138.4 917 774 52.36% 30.75% 16.89%+0.73 +15.8 3
2002-09-21 @ Virtus L 1-338.4 774 917 16.89% 30.75% 52.36%-0.73 -15.8 0
2002-09-21 Tre Penne D 1-149.5 786 739 40.99% 32.67% 26.35%+0.25 -1.3 1
2002-09-21 @ Tre Fiori D 1-149.5 739 786 26.35% 32.67% 40.99%-0.25 +1.3 1
2002-09-22 Libertas L 0-641.0 970 896 44.39% 32.30% 23.31%+0.39 -104.9 0
2002-09-22 @ Cosmos W 6-041.0 896 970 23.31% 32.30% 44.39%-0.39 +104.9 3
2002-09-22 Pennarossa L 1-440.7 893 924 30.10% 32.91% 37.00%-0.14 -35.0 0
2002-09-22 @ Murata W 4-140.7 924 893 37.00% 32.91% 30.10%+0.14 +35.0 3
2002-09-28 Cailungo D 3-359.1 858 898 28.94% 32.85% 38.21%-0.19 +0.5 1
2002-09-28 @ Murata D 3-359.1 898 858 38.21% 32.85% 28.94%+0.19 -0.5 1
2002-09-28 Pennarossa D 1-149.7 862 959 22.20% 32.12% 45.67%-0.48 +2.2 4
2002-09-28 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-149.7 959 862 45.67% 32.12% 22.20%+0.48 -2.1 4
2002-09-28 San Giovanni L 1-348.1 865 759 48.30% 31.67% 20.02%+0.55 -35.0 0
2002-09-28 @ Cosmos W 3-148.1 759 865 20.02% 31.67% 48.30%-0.55 +35.0 3
2002-09-28 Tre Penne W 1-032.6 1001 740 63.53% 26.51% 9.96%+1.33 +5.8 6
2002-09-28 @ Libertas L 0-132.6 740 1001 9.96% 26.51% 63.53%-1.33 -5.8 1
2002-09-29 Domagnano W 2-151.4 785 920 18.57% 31.29% 50.14%-0.67 +20.8 4
2002-09-29 @ Tre Fiori L 1-251.4 920 785 50.14% 31.29% 18.57%+0.67 -20.8 1
2002-09-29 Faetano L 0-329.6 674 876 13.68% 29.29% 57.03%-1.01 -21.9 0
2002-09-29 @ La Fiorita W 3-029.6 876 674 57.03% 29.29% 13.68%+1.01 +21.9 6
2002-10-02 Juvenes Dogana W 2-137.9 933 673 63.46% 26.54% 10.00%+1.32 +5.5 6
2002-10-02 @ Virtus L 1-237.9 673 933 10.00% 26.54% 63.46%-1.32 -5.5 1
2002-10-05 Cailungo L 2-354.6 957 897 42.55% 32.52% 24.93%+0.31 -17.3 4
2002-10-05 @ Pennarossa W 3-254.6 897 957 24.93% 32.52% 42.55%-0.31 +17.3 4
2002-10-05 Domagnano L 0-135.7 734 899 16.15% 30.47% 53.38%-0.82 -9.3 1
2002-10-05 @ Tre Penne W 1-035.7 899 734 53.38% 30.47% 16.15%+0.82 +9.3 4
2002-10-05 La Fiorita D 1-149.7 739 652 45.87% 32.09% 22.04%+0.45 -2.2 1
2002-10-05 @ Montevito D 1-149.7 652 739 22.04% 32.09% 45.87%-0.45 +2.2 1
2002-10-05 Libertas W 2-040.9 939 1007 25.45% 32.58% 41.97%-0.33 +36.1 9
2002-10-05 @ Virtus L 0-240.9 1007 939 41.97% 32.58% 25.45%+0.33 -36.2 6
2002-10-05 Tre Fiori D 2-255.0 830 806 37.85% 32.87% 29.28%+0.13 -0.5 1
2002-10-05 @ Cosmos D 2-255.0 806 830 29.28% 32.87% 37.85%-0.13 +0.5 5
2002-10-06 Murata W 1-041.1 864 859 35.20% 32.96% 31.85%+0.04 +15.8 7
2002-10-06 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-141.1 859 864 31.85% 32.96% 35.20%-0.04 -15.8 1
2002-10-06 San Giovanni D 1-149.9 668 794 19.41% 31.52% 49.06%-0.62 +2.8 2
2002-10-06 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-149.9 794 668 49.06% 31.52% 19.41%+0.62 -2.8 4
2002-10-18 Virtus D 1-149.5 909 975 25.66% 32.60% 41.74%-0.32 +1.4 5
2002-10-18 @ Domagnano D 1-149.5 975 909 41.74% 32.60% 25.66%+0.32 -1.4 10
2002-10-19 Montevito D 1-150.7 940 736 58.38% 28.78% 12.84%+1.04 -4.5 5
2002-10-19 @ Pennarossa D 1-150.7 736 940 12.84% 28.78% 58.38%-1.04 +4.5 2
2002-10-19 Libertas L 0-135.2 791 970 15.12% 30.03% 54.85%-0.90 -8.8 4
2002-10-19 @ San Giovanni W 1-035.2 970 791 54.85% 30.03% 15.12%+0.90 +8.8 9
2002-10-19 Murata L 1-249.3 898 843 41.98% 32.58% 25.44%+0.29 -18.1 6
2002-10-19 @ Faetano W 2-149.3 843 898 25.44% 32.58% 41.98%-0.29 +18.1 4
2002-10-19 Tre Fiori D 1-149.9 670 806 18.53% 31.28% 50.19%-0.67 +3.0 3
2002-10-19 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-149.9 806 670 50.19% 31.28% 18.53%+0.67 -3.0 6
2002-10-20 Cailungo L 0-427.8 655 915 10.57% 27.08% 62.35%-1.30 -22.0 1
2002-10-20 @ La Fiorita W 4-027.8 915 655 62.35% 27.08% 10.57%+1.30 +22.0 7
2002-10-20 Tre Penne D 1-149.8 830 725 48.10% 31.71% 20.19%+0.54 -2.6 2
2002-10-20 @ Cosmos D 1-149.8 725 830 20.19% 31.71% 48.10%-0.54 +2.6 2
2002-10-22 Montevito W 2-031.2 937 741 57.67% 29.05% 13.27%+1.00 +14.7 10
2002-10-22 @ Cailungo L 0-231.2 741 937 13.27% 29.05% 57.67%-1.00 -14.6 2
2002-10-22 Pennarossa W 2-148.9 880 935 26.99% 32.72% 40.28%-0.27 +17.5 9
2002-10-22 @ Faetano L 1-248.9 935 880 40.28% 32.72% 26.99%+0.27 -17.5 5
2002-10-22 Tre Fiori W 2-039.1 782 803 31.41% 32.95% 35.64%-0.10 +32.1 7
2002-10-22 @ San Giovanni L 0-239.1 803 782 35.64% 32.95% 31.41%+0.10 -32.1 6
2002-10-23 Cosmos D 1-150.1 973 827 52.73% 30.65% 16.62%+0.75 -3.5 11
2002-10-23 @ Virtus D 1-150.1 827 973 16.62% 30.65% 52.73%-0.75 +3.5 3
2002-10-23 Domagnano W 1-038.5 979 910 43.75% 32.38% 23.86%+0.36 +12.8 12
2002-10-23 @ Libertas L 0-138.5 910 979 23.86% 32.38% 43.75%-0.36 -12.8 5
2002-10-23 Folgore Falciano L 0-230.1 633 880 11.18% 27.59% 61.23%-1.24 -12.3 1
2002-10-23 @ La Fiorita W 2-030.1 880 633 61.23% 27.59% 11.18%+1.24 +12.3 10
2002-10-23 Tre Penne D 2-255.1 673 727 27.14% 32.74% 40.13%-0.26 +0.9 4
2002-10-23 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-255.1 727 673 40.13% 32.74% 27.14%+0.26 -0.9 3
2002-10-26 Cailungo L 2-353.9 992 951 40.08% 32.74% 27.18%+0.22 -16.6 12
2002-10-26 @ Libertas W 3-253.9 951 992 27.18% 32.74% 40.08%-0.22 +16.6 13
2002-10-26 Cosmos D 2-255.2 892 830 42.80% 32.49% 24.71%+0.32 -1.2 11
2002-10-26 @ Folgore Falciano D 2-255.2 830 892 24.71% 32.49% 42.80%-0.32 +1.2 4
2002-10-26 Juvenes Dogana L 0-139.6 620 674 27.13% 32.74% 40.14%-0.26 -14.1 1
2002-10-26 @ La Fiorita W 1-039.6 674 620 40.14% 32.74% 27.13%+0.26 +14.1 7
2002-10-26 Tre Fiori L 1-251.5 897 771 50.54% 31.20% 18.26%+0.65 -21.0 9
2002-10-26 @ Faetano W 2-151.5 771 897 18.26% 31.20% 50.54%-0.65 +21.0 9
2002-10-26 Tre Penne W 4-136.4 861 727 51.43% 30.99% 17.58%+0.69 +23.2 7
2002-10-26 @ Murata L 1-436.4 727 861 17.58% 30.99% 51.43%-0.69 -23.2 3
2002-10-27 Pennarossa L 1-246.3 897 917 31.57% 32.95% 35.48%-0.09 -14.8 5
2002-10-27 @ Domagnano W 2-146.3 917 897 35.48% 32.95% 31.57%+0.09 +14.8 8
2002-10-27 Virtus D 2-256.6 726 970 11.35% 27.73% 60.92%-1.22 +3.7 3
2002-10-27 @ Montevito D 2-256.6 970 726 60.92% 27.73% 11.35%+1.22 -3.7 12
2002-11-01 Pennarossa L 1-438.0 832 932 21.86% 32.06% 46.08%-0.50 -27.7 4
2002-11-01 @ Cosmos W 4-138.0 932 832 46.08% 32.06% 21.86%+0.50 +27.7 11
2002-11-02 Faetano D 0-045.9 703 876 15.58% 30.23% 54.19%-0.86 +4.2 4
2002-11-02 @ Tre Penne D 0-045.9 876 703 54.19% 30.23% 15.58%+0.86 -4.2 10
2002-11-02 Montevito D 1-151.2 975 730 62.20% 27.15% 10.65%+1.25 -5.2 13
2002-11-02 @ Libertas D 1-151.2 730 975 10.65% 27.15% 62.20%-1.25 +5.2 4
2002-11-02 La Fiorita W 4-130.4 966 606 71.30% 22.15% 6.55%+1.83 +8.2 15
2002-11-02 @ Virtus L 1-430.4 606 966 6.55% 22.15% 71.30%-1.83 -8.2 1
2002-11-02 Murata D 2-255.2 792 884 22.77% 32.22% 45.02%-0.45 +1.5 10
2002-11-02 @ Tre Fiori D 2-255.2 884 792 45.02% 32.22% 22.77%+0.45 -1.5 8
2002-11-03 Folgore Falciano D 2-256.1 688 891 13.64% 29.26% 57.10%-1.01 +3.2 8
2002-11-03 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-256.1 891 688 57.10% 29.26% 13.64%+1.01 -3.2 12
2002-11-03 San Giovanni W 2-032.5 968 814 53.49% 30.43% 16.07%+0.79 +17.5 16
2002-11-03 @ Cailungo L 0-232.5 814 968 16.07% 30.43% 53.49%-0.79 -17.5 7
2002-11-05 La Fiorita W 9-128.4 960 598 71.44% 22.07% 6.50%+1.84 +19.8 14
2002-11-05 @ Pennarossa L 1-928.4 598 960 6.50% 22.07% 71.44%-1.84 -19.8 1
2002-11-05 Murata L 1-436.4 735 883 17.57% 30.98% 51.45%-0.73 -23.2 4
2002-11-05 @ Montevito W 4-136.4 883 735 51.45% 30.98% 17.57%+0.73 +23.2 11
2002-11-05 Virtus D 0-047.0 708 974 10.26% 26.79% 62.95%-1.34 +6.0 5
2002-11-05 @ Tre Penne D 0-047.0 974 708 62.95% 26.79% 10.26%+1.34 -6.0 16
2002-11-06 Cosmos L 2-347.8 692 804 20.69% 31.83% 47.49%-0.56 -10.3 8
2002-11-06 @ Juvenes Dogana W 3-247.8 804 692 47.49% 31.83% 20.69%+0.56 +10.3 7
2002-11-06 Tre Fiori W 3-137.4 970 794 55.82% 29.71% 14.47%+0.90 +13.8 16
2002-11-06 @ Libertas L 1-337.4 794 970 14.47% 29.71% 55.82%-0.90 -13.8 10
2002-11-08 Domagnano D 0-045.1 872 883 32.95% 32.97% 34.08%-0.04 +0.1 11
2002-11-08 @ Faetano D 0-045.1 883 872 34.08% 32.97% 32.95%+0.04 -0.1 6
2002-11-09 Cailungo D 0-047.0 714 985 10.04% 26.59% 63.38%-1.36 +6.1 6
2002-11-09 @ Tre Penne D 0-047.0 985 714 63.38% 26.59% 10.04%+1.36 -6.1 17
2002-11-09 Folgore Falciano L 1-243.5 797 888 22.85% 32.23% 44.91%-0.45 -11.7 7
2002-11-09 @ San Giovanni W 2-143.5 888 797 44.91% 32.23% 22.85%+0.45 +11.7 15
2002-11-09 La Fiorita L 0-148.3 814 578 61.37% 27.53% 11.10%+1.20 -26.1 7
2002-11-09 @ Cosmos W 1-048.3 578 814 11.10% 27.53% 61.37%-1.20 +26.1 4
2002-11-09 Murata L 1-249.6 968 906 42.94% 32.48% 24.58%+0.33 -18.4 16
2002-11-09 @ Virtus W 2-149.6 906 968 24.58% 32.48% 42.94%-0.33 +18.4 14
2002-11-10 Libertas L 0-141.7 980 984 33.81% 32.97% 33.22%-0.01 -16.4 14
2002-11-10 @ Pennarossa W 1-041.7 984 980 33.22% 32.97% 33.81%+0.01 +16.4 19
2002-11-10 Tre Fiori D 2-255.1 712 780 25.45% 32.58% 41.97%-0.33 +1.1 5
2002-11-10 @ Montevito D 2-255.1 780 712 41.97% 32.58% 25.45%+0.33 -1.1 11
2002-11-12 Domagnano L 0-432.8 785 882 22.16% 32.12% 45.72%-0.48 -43.4 7
2002-11-12 @ San Giovanni W 4-032.8 882 785 45.72% 32.12% 22.16%+0.48 +43.4 9
2002-11-12 Folgore Falciano D 2-255.0 872 899 30.64% 32.93% 36.44%-0.12 +0.4 12
2002-11-12 @ Faetano D 2-255.0 899 872 36.44% 32.93% 30.64%+0.12 -0.4 16
2002-11-15 La Fiorita W 3-137.4 779 604 55.60% 29.78% 14.62%+0.89 +13.9 14
2002-11-15 @ Tre Fiori L 1-337.4 604 779 14.62% 29.78% 55.60%-0.89 -13.9 4
2002-11-16 Faetano L 0-136.8 741 873 18.93% 31.39% 49.68%-0.65 -10.7 7
2002-11-16 @ San Giovanni W 1-036.8 873 741 49.68% 31.39% 18.93%+0.65 +10.7 15
2002-11-16 Montevito W 3-033.4 788 713 44.49% 32.29% 23.22%+0.39 +34.4 10
2002-11-16 @ Cosmos L 0-333.4 713 788 23.22% 32.29% 44.49%-0.39 -34.4 5
2002-11-16 Tre Penne L 2-454.9 963 720 62.06% 27.22% 10.73%+1.24 -38.5 14
2002-11-16 @ Pennarossa W 4-254.9 720 963 10.73% 27.22% 62.06%-1.24 +38.5 9
2002-11-16 Virtus L 1-245.0 899 950 27.49% 32.76% 39.75%-0.25 -13.4 16
2002-11-16 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-145.0 950 899 39.75% 32.76% 27.49%+0.25 +13.4 19
2002-11-17 Juvenes Dogana W 2-028.5 979 681 66.57% 24.93% 8.51%+1.52 +9.1 20
2002-11-17 @ Cailungo L 0-228.5 681 979 8.51% 24.93% 66.57%-1.52 -9.1 8
2002-11-17 Murata W 2-146.5 926 924 34.67% 32.96% 32.36%+0.02 +15.0 12
2002-11-17 @ Domagnano L 1-246.5 924 926 32.36% 32.96% 34.67%-0.02 -15.0 14
2002-11-22 Cosmos D 1-149.7 909 823 45.93% 32.09% 21.99%+0.45 -2.2 15
2002-11-22 @ Murata D 1-149.7 823 909 21.99% 32.09% 45.93%-0.45 +2.2 11
2002-11-23 Cailungo D 1-150.5 793 988 14.06% 29.50% 56.44%-0.98 +4.2 15
2002-11-23 @ Tre Fiori D 1-150.5 988 793 56.44% 29.50% 14.06%+0.98 -4.2 21
2002-11-23 Folgore Falciano D 1-149.5 941 886 42.00% 32.58% 25.43%+0.29 -1.5 13
2002-11-23 @ Domagnano D 1-149.5 886 941 25.43% 32.58% 42.00%-0.29 +1.5 17
2002-11-23 Pennarossa L 0-230.0 672 925 10.91% 27.37% 61.71%-1.26 -12.0 8
2002-11-23 @ Juvenes Dogana W 2-030.0 925 672 61.71% 27.37% 10.91%+1.26 +12.0 17
2002-11-23 San Giovanni L 1-436.6 591 731 18.15% 31.17% 50.68%-0.70 -23.8 4
2002-11-23 @ La Fiorita W 4-136.6 731 591 50.68% 31.17% 18.15%+0.70 +23.8 10
2002-11-24 Montevito W 2-143.4 758 679 45.04% 32.22% 22.75%+0.41 +11.7 12
2002-11-24 @ Tre Penne L 1-243.4 679 758 22.75% 32.22% 45.04%-0.41 -11.7 5
2002-11-24 Libertas W 2-150.9 883 1000 20.24% 31.72% 48.04%-0.58 +20.1 18
2002-11-24 @ Faetano L 1-250.9 1000 883 48.04% 31.72% 20.24%+0.58 -20.1 19
2002-11-30 Domagnano L 1-335.1 667 939 10.02% 26.57% 63.41%-1.36 -9.5 5
2002-11-30 @ Montevito W 3-135.1 939 667 63.41% 26.57% 10.02%+1.36 +9.5 16
2002-11-30 Faetano D 1-151.0 660 904 11.36% 27.74% 60.90%-1.22 +5.0 9
2002-11-30 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-151.0 904 660 60.90% 27.74% 11.36%+1.22 -5.0 19
2002-11-30 Folgore Falciano W 3-032.7 980 887 46.74% 31.95% 21.30%+0.48 +32.2 22
2002-11-30 @ Libertas L 0-332.7 887 980 21.30% 31.95% 46.74%-0.48 -32.2 17
2002-11-30 La Fiorita W 1-034.2 770 567 58.37% 28.79% 12.84%+1.04 +7.5 15
2002-11-30 @ Tre Penne L 0-134.2 567 770 12.84% 28.79% 58.37%-1.04 -7.5 4
2002-11-30 Tre Fiori W 2-141.3 937 797 52.03% 30.84% 17.14%+0.72 +9.3 20
2002-11-30 @ Pennarossa L 1-241.3 797 937 17.14% 30.84% 52.03%-0.72 -9.3 15
2002-12-01 Murata L 1-241.3 755 907 17.16% 30.84% 51.99%-0.76 -9.3 10
2002-12-01 @ San Giovanni W 2-141.3 907 755 51.99% 30.84% 17.16%+0.76 +9.3 18
2002-12-01 Virtus D 1-149.5 984 963 37.35% 32.89% 29.76%+0.12 -0.6 22
2002-12-01 @ Cailungo D 1-149.5 963 984 29.76% 32.89% 37.35%-0.12 +0.6 20
2003-02-11 La Fiorita W 4-025.1 916 559 71.08% 22.29% 6.63%+1.81 +12.8 21
2003-02-11 @ Murata L 0-425.1 559 916 6.63% 22.29% 71.08%-1.81 -12.8 4
2003-02-12 San Giovanni D 3-359.1 777 745 38.88% 32.82% 28.30%+0.17 -0.6 16
2003-02-12 @ Tre Penne D 3-359.1 745 777 28.30% 32.82% 38.88%-0.17 +0.6 11
2003-02-12 Virtus D 1-150.3 788 964 15.35% 30.13% 54.52%-0.88 +3.8 16
2003-02-12 @ Tre Fiori D 1-150.3 964 788 54.52% 30.13% 15.35%+0.88 -3.8 21
2003-02-15 Montevito L 1-250.4 746 658 46.14% 32.05% 21.81%+0.46 -19.5 11
2003-02-15 @ San Giovanni W 2-150.4 658 746 21.81% 32.05% 46.14%-0.46 +19.5 8
2003-02-16 Cosmos D 1-149.6 899 825 44.36% 32.31% 23.33%+0.38 -1.9 20
2003-02-16 @ Faetano D 1-149.6 825 899 23.33% 32.31% 44.36%-0.38 +1.9 12
2003-02-19 Cosmos W 4-136.8 949 827 50.09% 31.30% 18.61%+0.63 +24.3 19
2003-02-19 @ Domagnano L 1-436.8 827 949 18.61% 31.30% 50.09%-0.63 -24.3 12
2003-02-19 Faetano L 1-239.3 677 897 12.62% 28.65% 58.73%-1.10 -7.0 8
2003-02-19 @ Montevito W 2-139.3 897 677 58.73% 28.65% 12.62%+1.10 +7.0 23
2003-02-20 Folgore Falciano D 1-149.5 791 855 25.99% 32.63% 41.38%-0.31 +1.4 17
2003-02-20 @ Tre Fiori D 1-149.5 855 791 41.38% 32.63% 25.99%+0.31 -1.4 18
2003-02-22 Cailungo L 1-435.3 802 984 15.01% 29.97% 55.01%-0.90 -20.2 12
2003-02-22 @ Cosmos W 4-135.3 984 802 55.01% 29.97% 15.01%+0.90 +20.2 25
2003-02-22 Domagnano L 0-129.1 546 973 5.21% 19.72% 75.08%-2.14 -2.7 4
2003-02-22 @ La Fiorita W 1-029.1 973 546 75.08% 19.72% 5.21%+2.14 +2.7 22
2003-02-22 Faetano L 2-354.5 960 904 42.16% 32.56% 25.28%+0.30 -17.2 21
2003-02-22 @ Virtus W 3-254.5 904 960 25.28% 32.56% 42.16%-0.30 +17.2 26
2003-02-23 Libertas W 6-348.7 929 1013 23.67% 32.36% 43.98%-0.41 +36.8 24
2003-02-23 @ Murata L 3-648.7 1013 929 43.98% 32.36% 23.67%+0.41 -36.8 22
2003-02-23 San Giovanni W 3-028.7 946 726 59.91% 28.17% 11.93%+1.12 +19.1 23
2003-02-23 @ Pennarossa L 0-328.7 726 946 11.93% 28.17% 59.91%-1.12 -19.1 11
2003-02-23 Tre Fiori W 2-038.9 777 793 32.12% 32.96% 34.92%-0.07 +31.6 19
2003-02-23 @ Tre Penne L 0-238.9 793 777 34.92% 32.96% 32.12%+0.07 -31.6 17
2003-02-25 Cailungo L 0-235.4 921 1004 23.74% 32.37% 43.89%-0.41 -24.1 26
2003-02-25 @ Faetano W 2-035.4 1004 921 43.89% 32.37% 23.74%+0.41 +24.1 28
2003-02-25 Domagnano D 2-257.4 665 976 8.51% 24.93% 66.57%-1.56 +4.4 10
2003-02-25 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-257.4 976 665 66.57% 24.93% 8.51%+1.56 -4.4 23
2003-02-25 Folgore Falciano L 0-135.1 670 853 14.87% 29.91% 55.22%-0.91 -8.6 8
2003-02-25 @ Montevito W 1-035.1 853 670 55.22% 29.91% 14.87%+0.91 +8.6 21
2003-02-26 Cosmos D 1-150.6 976 782 57.48% 29.13% 13.40%+0.99 -4.4 23
2003-02-26 @ Libertas D 1-150.6 782 976 13.40% 29.13% 57.48%-0.99 +4.4 13
2003-02-26 Murata D 1-149.4 965 966 34.34% 32.97% 32.70%+0.01 -0.1 24
2003-02-26 @ Pennarossa D 1-149.4 966 965 32.70% 32.97% 34.34%-0.01 +0.1 25
2003-02-26 Virtus L 1-238.9 707 943 11.75% 28.04% 60.21%-1.18 -6.5 11
2003-02-26 @ San Giovanni W 2-138.9 943 707 60.21% 28.04% 11.75%+1.18 +6.5 24
2003-03-01 Faetano L 0-237.3 862 897 29.60% 32.89% 37.51%-0.16 -28.3 21
2003-03-01 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-037.3 897 862 37.51% 32.89% 29.60%+0.16 +28.3 29
2003-03-01 Libertas L 1-336.7 761 971 13.17% 28.99% 57.84%-1.05 -12.6 17
2003-03-01 @ Tre Fiori W 3-136.7 971 761 57.84% 28.99% 13.17%+1.05 +12.6 26
2003-03-01 Pennarossa L 0-226.1 544 965 5.33% 19.96% 74.71%-2.12 -5.2 4
2003-03-01 @ La Fiorita W 2-026.1 965 544 74.71% 19.96% 5.33%+2.12 +5.2 27
2003-03-01 Tre Penne W 3-138.4 950 808 52.17% 30.80% 17.03%+0.72 +16.0 27
2003-03-01 @ Virtus L 1-338.4 808 950 17.03% 30.80% 52.17%-0.72 -16.0 19
2003-03-02 Juvenes Dogana D 1-149.9 786 670 49.48% 31.44% 19.08%+0.60 -2.9 14
2003-03-02 @ Cosmos D 1-149.9 670 786 19.08% 31.44% 49.48%-0.60 +2.9 11
2003-03-02 San Giovanni W 3-134.8 971 701 64.34% 26.10% 9.55%+1.38 +9.0 26
2003-03-02 @ Domagnano L 1-334.8 701 971 9.55% 26.10% 64.34%-1.38 -9.0 11
2003-03-03 Montevito W 2-136.8 966 661 67.09% 24.64% 8.27%+1.55 +4.4 28
2003-03-03 @ Murata L 1-236.8 661 966 8.27% 24.64% 67.09%-1.55 -4.4 8
2003-03-05 Folgore Falciano D 1-150.6 1028 834 57.51% 29.11% 13.37%+0.99 -4.4 29
2003-03-05 @ Cailungo D 1-150.6 834 1028 13.37% 29.11% 57.51%-0.99 +4.4 22
2003-03-05 Juvenes Dogana D 1-152.0 984 673 67.64% 24.33% 8.03%+1.58 -6.1 27
2003-03-05 @ Libertas D 1-152.0 673 984 8.03% 24.33% 67.64%-1.58 +6.1 12
2003-03-05 Pennarossa D 1-149.4 965 970 33.75% 32.97% 33.28%-0.01 -0.0 28
2003-03-05 @ Virtus D 1-149.4 970 965 33.28% 32.97% 33.75%+0.01 +0.0 28
2003-03-08 Cosmos D 1-149.7 692 784 22.77% 32.22% 45.00%-0.45 +2.0 12
2003-03-08 @ San Giovanni D 1-149.7 784 692 45.00% 32.22% 22.77%+0.45 -2.0 15
2003-03-08 Folgore Falciano W 2-033.2 970 838 51.18% 31.05% 17.77%+0.68 +19.1 31
2003-03-08 @ Pennarossa L 0-233.2 838 970 17.77% 31.05% 51.18%-0.68 -19.1 22
2003-03-08 Libertas W 2-152.5 792 978 14.72% 29.84% 55.44%-0.93 +22.7 22
2003-03-08 @ Tre Penne L 1-252.5 978 792 55.44% 29.84% 14.72%+0.93 -22.7 27
2003-03-08 Murata D 0-045.2 1023 970 41.70% 32.61% 25.70%+0.28 -1.6 30
2003-03-08 @ Cailungo D 0-045.2 970 1023 25.70% 32.61% 41.70%-0.28 +1.6 29
2003-03-08 Tre Fiori W 1-033.4 980 749 61.00% 27.69% 11.30%+1.18 +6.6 29
2003-03-08 @ Domagnano L 0-133.4 749 980 11.30% 27.69% 61.00%-1.18 -6.6 17
2003-03-09 La Fiorita W 4-129.8 925 539 73.19% 20.96% 5.86%+1.96 +7.1 32
2003-03-09 @ Faetano L 1-429.8 539 925 5.86% 20.96% 73.19%-1.96 -7.1 4
2003-03-09 Virtus W 2-045.7 679 965 9.41% 25.96% 64.63%-1.44 +51.3 15
2003-03-09 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-245.7 965 679 64.63% 25.96% 9.41%+1.44 -51.3 28
2003-03-11 Cosmos L 0-140.2 742 782 28.96% 32.86% 38.19%-0.19 -14.8 17
2003-03-11 @ Tre Fiori W 1-040.2 782 742 38.19% 32.86% 28.96%+0.19 +14.8 18
2003-03-11 Folgore Falciano W 1-035.7 972 819 53.40% 30.46% 16.14%+0.78 +9.3 32
2003-03-11 @ Murata L 0-135.7 819 972 16.14% 30.46% 53.40%-0.78 -9.3 22
2003-03-11 Tre Penne W 4-348.3 987 815 55.36% 29.86% 14.78%+0.88 +7.5 32
2003-03-11 @ Domagnano L 3-448.3 815 987 14.78% 29.86% 55.36%-0.88 -7.5 22
2003-03-12 Montevito W 3-040.9 531 657 19.43% 31.53% 49.04%-0.62 +59.4 7
2003-03-12 @ La Fiorita L 0-340.9 657 531 49.04% 31.53% 19.43%+0.62 -59.4 8
2003-03-12 Juvenes Dogana D 1-149.5 694 730 29.42% 32.88% 37.70%-0.17 +0.7 13
2003-03-12 @ San Giovanni D 1-149.5 730 694 37.70% 32.88% 29.42%+0.17 -0.7 16
2003-03-12 Pennarossa L 2-353.6 1022 989 38.95% 32.81% 28.24%+0.18 -16.2 30
2003-03-12 @ Cailungo W 3-253.6 989 1022 28.24% 32.81% 38.95%-0.18 +16.2 34
2003-03-12 Virtus D 0-045.2 955 914 40.11% 32.74% 27.15%+0.22 -1.3 28
2003-03-12 @ Libertas D 0-045.2 914 955 27.15% 32.74% 40.11%-0.22 +1.3 29
2003-03-15 Domagnano W 1-047.5 796 995 13.90% 29.41% 56.69%-0.99 +24.5 21
2003-03-15 @ Cosmos L 0-147.5 995 796 56.69% 29.41% 13.90%+0.99 -24.5 32
2003-03-15 Montevito W 3-025.9 932 598 69.41% 23.30% 7.29%+1.70 +11.0 35
2003-03-15 @ Faetano L 0-325.9 598 932 7.29% 23.30% 69.41%-1.70 -11.0 8
2003-03-15 Libertas W 1-048.0 729 954 12.34% 28.46% 59.20%-1.12 +25.4 19
2003-03-15 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-148.0 954 729 59.20% 28.46% 12.34%+1.12 -25.4 28
2003-03-15 Tre Penne L 1-242.7 695 808 20.63% 31.81% 47.56%-0.56 -10.8 13
2003-03-15 @ San Giovanni W 2-142.7 808 695 47.56% 31.81% 20.63%+0.56 +10.8 25
2003-03-16 Murata L 1-235.2 591 981 6.08% 21.35% 72.57%-1.96 -3.0 7
2003-03-16 @ La Fiorita W 2-135.2 981 591 72.57% 21.35% 6.08%+1.96 +3.0 35
2003-03-16 Tre Fiori W 2-139.9 915 727 56.95% 29.32% 13.73%+0.96 +7.6 32
2003-03-16 @ Virtus L 1-239.9 727 915 13.73% 29.32% 56.95%-0.96 -7.6 17
2003-03-17 Cailungo L 0-134.7 810 1006 14.05% 29.49% 56.46%-0.98 -8.2 22
2003-03-17 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-034.7 1006 810 56.46% 29.49% 14.05%+0.98 +8.2 33
2003-03-19 Juvenes Dogana W 2-030.3 984 755 60.81% 27.78% 11.41%+1.17 +12.6 38
2003-03-19 @ Murata L 0-230.3 755 984 11.41% 27.78% 60.81%-1.17 -12.6 19
2003-03-19 Libertas L 0-227.8 588 928 7.49% 23.59% 68.91%-1.71 -7.8 7
2003-03-19 @ La Fiorita W 2-027.8 928 588 68.91% 23.59% 7.49%+1.71 +7.8 31
2003-03-22 Cosmos D 1-149.4 818 821 34.06% 32.97% 32.97%+0.00 -0.1 26
2003-03-22 @ Tre Penne D 1-149.4 821 818 32.97% 32.97% 34.06%+0.00 +0.1 22
2003-03-22 Domagnano L 0-139.9 923 970 27.99% 32.80% 39.21%-0.23 -14.4 32
2003-03-22 @ Virtus W 1-039.9 970 923 39.21% 32.80% 27.99%+0.23 +14.4 35
2003-03-22 Faetano D 1-149.5 997 943 41.79% 32.60% 25.61%+0.28 -1.4 39
2003-03-22 @ Murata D 1-149.5 943 997 25.61% 32.60% 41.79%-0.28 +1.4 36
2003-03-22 Juvenes Dogana W 2-039.1 720 742 31.26% 32.94% 35.79%-0.10 +32.2 20
2003-03-22 @ Tre Fiori L 0-239.1 742 720 35.79% 32.94% 31.26%+0.10 -32.2 19
2003-03-22 Pennarossa L 1-528.1 587 1006 5.38% 20.07% 74.55%-2.10 -8.3 8
2003-03-22 @ Montevito W 5-128.1 1006 587 74.55% 20.07% 5.38%+2.10 +8.3 37
2003-03-23 La Fiorita W 5-024.2 1014 580 76.37% 18.85% 4.78%+2.20 +10.6 36
2003-03-23 @ Cailungo L 0-524.2 580 1014 4.78% 18.85% 76.37%-2.20 -10.6 7
2003-03-23 San Giovanni W 1-032.8 936 684 62.82% 26.86% 10.33%+1.29 +6.0 34
2003-03-23 @ Libertas L 0-132.8 684 936 10.33% 26.86% 62.82%-1.29 -6.0 13
2003-03-26 Domagnano D 0-045.2 1024 984 39.96% 32.75% 27.29%+0.21 -1.2 37
2003-03-26 @ Cailungo D 0-045.2 984 1024 27.29% 32.75% 39.96%-0.21 +1.2 36
2003-03-26 Juvenes Dogana L 2-347.1 578 710 18.91% 31.39% 49.71%-0.65 -9.6 8
2003-03-26 @ Montevito W 3-247.1 710 578 49.71% 31.39% 18.91%+0.65 +9.5 22
2003-03-26 Tre Penne L 1-441.3 802 818 32.05% 32.96% 34.99%-0.07 -36.6 22
2003-03-26 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-141.3 818 802 34.99% 32.96% 32.05%+0.07 +36.6 29
2003-03-29 Juvenes Dogana D 0-045.7 855 719 51.54% 30.96% 17.50%+0.70 -3.6 30
2003-03-29 @ Tre Penne D 0-045.7 719 855 17.50% 30.96% 51.54%-0.70 +3.7 23
2003-03-29 Libertas W 1-039.5 986 942 40.42% 32.71% 26.87%+0.23 +14.0 39
2003-03-29 @ Domagnano L 0-139.5 942 986 26.87% 32.71% 40.42%-0.23 -14.0 34
2003-03-29 San Giovanni L 1-250.0 752 678 44.38% 32.30% 23.31%+0.39 -18.9 20
2003-03-29 @ Tre Fiori W 2-150.0 678 752 23.31% 32.30% 44.38%-0.39 +18.9 16
2003-03-29 Virtus W 5-247.7 821 909 23.22% 32.29% 44.49%-0.43 +40.1 25
2003-03-29 @ Cosmos L 2-547.7 909 821 44.49% 32.29% 23.22%+0.43 -40.1 32
2003-03-30 Cailungo D 3-363.4 569 1023 4.63% 18.51% 76.87%-2.28 +4.5 9
2003-03-30 @ Montevito D 3-363.4 1023 569 76.87% 18.51% 4.63%+2.28 -4.5 38
2003-03-30 Faetano W 1-038.5 1014 945 43.78% 32.38% 23.84%+0.36 +12.8 40
2003-03-30 @ Pennarossa L 0-138.5 945 1014 23.84% 32.38% 43.78%-0.36 -12.8 36
2003-03-30 La Fiorita W 2-031.2 765 569 57.67% 29.06% 13.28%+1.00 +14.7 25
2003-03-30 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-231.2 569 765 13.28% 29.06% 57.67%-1.00 -14.6 7

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2003-04-04 Cailungo W 2-150.1 928 1019 22.93% 32.25% 44.82%-0.44 +19.0 1-0
2003-04-04 @ Libertas L 1-250.1 1019 928 44.82% 32.25% 22.93%+0.44 -19.0 0-1
2003-04-04 Virtus W 3-246.8 995 868 50.62% 31.18% 18.20%+0.65 +9.2 1-0
2003-04-04 @ Murata L 2-346.8 868 995 18.20% 31.18% 50.62%-0.65 -9.2 0-1
2003-04-08 Libertas W 3-248.5 1027 947 45.04% 32.22% 22.75%+0.41 +11.1 1-0
2003-04-08 @ Pennarossa L 2-348.5 947 1027 22.75% 32.22% 45.04%-0.41 -11.1 1-1
2003-04-08 Murata W 4-141.7 1000 1005 33.71% 32.97% 33.32%-0.01 +37.5 1-0
2003-04-08 @ Domagnano L 1-441.7 1005 1000 33.32% 32.97% 33.71%+0.01 -37.5 1-1
2003-04-12 Libertas L 0-138.7 859 936 24.38% 32.45% 43.16%-0.38 -13.0 0-2
2003-04-12 @ Virtus W 1-038.7 936 859 43.16% 32.45% 24.38%+0.38 +13.0 2-1
2003-04-12 Murata L 2-449.7 1000 967 38.95% 32.81% 28.24%+0.18 -26.5 0-2
2003-04-12 @ Cailungo W 4-249.7 967 1000 28.24% 32.81% 38.95%-0.18 +26.5 2-1
2003-04-14 Pennarossa D 0-045.1 1037 1038 34.35% 32.97% 32.68%+0.01 -0.2 1-0-1
2003-04-14 @ Domagnano D 0-045.1 1038 1037 32.68% 32.97% 34.35%-0.01 +0.2 1-0-1
2003-04-18 Libertas D 3-359.1 994 949 40.55% 32.70% 26.75%+0.24 -0.8 2-1-1
2003-04-18 @ Murata D 3-359.1 949 994 26.75% 32.70% 40.55%-0.24 +0.8 2-1-1
2003-04-25 Libertas W 5-136.7 1037 950 45.98% 32.08% 21.95%+0.45 +35.9 2-0-1
2003-04-25 @ Domagnano L 1-536.7 950 1037 21.95% 32.08% 45.98%-0.45 -35.9 2-2-1
2003-05-05 Domagnano L 1-245.7 1038 1073 29.55% 32.88% 37.56%-0.17 -14.1 1-1-1
2003-05-05 @ Pennarossa W 2-145.7 1073 1038 37.56% 32.88% 29.55%+0.17 +14.1 3-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2003-03-09 9.41% @ Juvenes Dogana 679 2 Virtus 965 0
2 2002-11-16 10.73% Tre Penne 720 4 @ Pennarossa 963 2
3 2002-11-09 11.10% La Fiorita 578 1 @ Cosmos 814 0
4 2003-03-15 12.34% @ Juvenes Dogana 729 1 Libertas 954 0
5 2003-03-15 13.90% @ Cosmos 796 1 Domagnano 995 0
6 2003-03-08 14.72% @ Tre Penne 792 2 Libertas 978 1
7 2002-10-26 18.26% Tre Fiori 771 2 @ Faetano 897 1
8 2002-09-29 18.57% @ Tre Fiori 785 2 Domagnano 920 1
9 2003-03-12 19.43% @ La Fiorita 531 3 Montevito 657 0
10 2002-09-28 20.02% San Giovanni 759 3 @ Cosmos 865 1
11 2002-11-24 20.24% @ Faetano 883 2 Libertas 1000 1
12 2003-02-15 21.81% Montevito 658 2 @ San Giovanni 746 1
13 2003-04-04 * 22.93% @ Libertas 928 2 Cailungo 1019 1
14 2003-03-29 23.22% @ Cosmos 821 5 Virtus 909 2
15 2002-09-22 23.31% Libertas 896 6 @ Cosmos 970 0
16 2003-03-29 23.31% San Giovanni 678 2 @ Tre Fiori 752 1
17 2003-02-23 23.67% @ Murata 929 6 Libertas 1013 3
18 2002-11-09 24.58% Murata 906 2 @ Virtus 968 1
19 2002-10-05 24.93% Cailungo 897 3 @ Pennarossa 957 2
20 2002-09-20 25.11% Faetano 858 2 @ Cailungo 916 1
21 2003-02-22 25.28% Faetano 904 3 @ Virtus 960 2
22 2002-10-19 25.44% Murata 843 2 @ Faetano 898 1
23 2002-10-05 25.45% @ Virtus 939 2 Libertas 1007 0
24 2002-10-22 26.99% @ Faetano 880 2 Pennarossa 935 1
25 2002-10-26 27.18% Cailungo 951 3 @ Libertas 992 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2002-09-22 104.87 Libertas 6 896 23.31% @ Cosmos 0 970 44.39% 32.30%
2 2003-03-12 59.44 @ La Fiorita 3 531 19.43% Montevito 0 657 49.04% 31.53%
3 2003-03-09 51.31 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 679 9.41% Virtus 0 965 64.63% 25.96%
4 2002-11-12 43.39 Domagnano 4 882 45.72% @ San Giovanni 0 785 22.16% 32.12%
5 2003-03-29 40.12 @ Cosmos 5 821 23.22% Virtus 2 909 44.49% 32.29%
6 2002-11-16 38.53 Tre Penne 4 720 10.73% @ Pennarossa 2 963 62.06% 27.22%
7 2003-04-08 * 37.52 @ Domagnano 4 1000 33.71% Murata 1 1005 33.32% 32.97%
8 2003-02-23 36.81 @ Murata 6 929 23.67% Libertas 3 1013 43.98% 32.36%
9 2003-03-26 36.56 Tre Penne 4 818 34.99% @ Folgore Falciano 1 802 32.05% 32.96%
10 2002-10-05 36.15 @ Virtus 2 939 25.45% Libertas 0 1007 41.97% 32.58%
11 2003-04-25 * 35.88 @ Domagnano 5 1037 45.98% Libertas 1 950 21.95% 32.08%
12 2002-09-22 35.02 Pennarossa 4 924 37.00% @ Murata 1 893 30.10% 32.91%
13 2002-09-28 35.01 San Giovanni 3 759 20.02% @ Cosmos 1 865 48.30% 31.67%
14 2002-11-16 34.42 @ Cosmos 3 788 44.49% Montevito 0 713 23.22% 32.29%
15 2002-11-30 32.20 @ Libertas 3 980 46.74% Folgore Falciano 0 887 21.30% 31.95%
16 2003-03-22 32.18 @ Tre Fiori 2 720 31.26% Juvenes Dogana 0 742 35.79% 32.94%
17 2002-10-22 32.08 @ San Giovanni 2 782 31.41% Tre Fiori 0 803 35.64% 32.95%
18 2003-02-23 31.63 @ Tre Penne 2 777 32.12% Tre Fiori 0 793 34.92% 32.96%
19 2002-09-21 30.30 @ Folgore Falciano 4 832 42.93% Montevito 1 769 24.59% 32.48%
20 2003-03-01 28.26 Faetano 2 897 37.51% @ Folgore Falciano 0 862 29.60% 32.89%
21 2002-11-01 27.70 Pennarossa 4 932 46.08% @ Cosmos 1 832 21.86% 32.06%
22 2003-04-12 * 26.48 Murata 4 967 28.24% @ Cailungo 2 1000 38.95% 32.81%
23 2002-11-09 26.15 La Fiorita 1 578 11.10% @ Cosmos 0 814 61.37% 27.53%
24 2003-03-15 25.40 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 729 12.34% Libertas 0 954 59.20% 28.46%
25 2003-03-15 24.51 @ Cosmos 1 796 13.90% Domagnano 0 995 56.69% 29.41%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-03-30 63.4 @ Montevito 3 569 4.63% Cailungo 3 1023 76.87% 18.51%
2 2002-09-28 59.1 @ Murata 3 858 28.94% Cailungo 3 898 38.21% 32.85%
3 2003-02-12 59.1 @ Tre Penne 3 777 38.88% San Giovanni 3 745 28.30% 32.82%
4 2003-04-18 * 59.1 @ Murata 3 994 40.55% Libertas 3 949 26.75% 32.70%
5 2003-02-25 57.4 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 665 8.51% Domagnano 2 976 66.57% 24.93%
6 2002-10-27 56.6 @ Montevito 2 726 11.35% Virtus 2 970 60.92% 27.73%
7 2002-11-03 56.1 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 688 13.64% Folgore Falciano 2 891 57.10% 29.26%
8 2002-10-26 55.2 @ Folgore Falciano 2 892 42.80% Cosmos 2 830 24.71% 32.49%
9 2002-11-02 55.2 @ Tre Fiori 2 792 22.77% Murata 2 884 45.02% 32.22%
10 2002-10-23 55.1 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 673 27.14% Tre Penne 2 727 40.13% 32.74%
11 2002-11-10 55.1 @ Montevito 2 712 25.45% Tre Fiori 2 780 41.97% 32.58%
12 2002-10-05 55.0 @ Cosmos 2 830 37.85% Tre Fiori 2 806 29.28% 32.87%
13 2002-11-12 55.0 @ Faetano 2 872 30.64% Folgore Falciano 2 899 36.44% 32.93%
14 2002-11-16 54.9 Tre Penne 4 720 10.73% @ Pennarossa 2 963 62.06% 27.22%
15 2002-10-05 54.6 Cailungo 3 897 24.93% @ Pennarossa 2 957 42.55% 32.52%
16 2003-02-22 54.5 Faetano 3 904 25.28% @ Virtus 2 960 42.16% 32.56%
17 2002-10-26 53.9 Cailungo 3 951 27.18% @ Libertas 2 992 40.08% 32.74%
18 2003-03-12 53.6 Pennarossa 3 989 28.24% @ Cailungo 2 1022 38.95% 32.81%
19 2003-03-08 52.5 @ Tre Penne 2 792 14.72% Libertas 1 978 55.44% 29.84%
20 2003-03-05 52.0 @ Libertas 1 984 67.64% Juvenes Dogana 1 673 8.03% 24.33%
21 2002-10-26 51.5 Tre Fiori 2 771 18.26% @ Faetano 1 897 50.54% 31.20%
22 2002-09-29 51.4 @ Tre Fiori 2 785 18.57% Domagnano 1 920 50.14% 31.29%
23 2002-09-21 51.3 @ Domagnano 1 926 63.27% Juvenes Dogana 1 668 10.09% 26.64%
24 2002-11-02 51.2 @ Libertas 1 975 62.20% Montevito 1 730 10.65% 27.15%
25 2002-11-30 51.0 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 660 11.36% Faetano 1 904 60.90% 27.74%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-03-23 24.2 @ Cailungo 5 1014 76.37% La Fiorita 0 580 4.78% 18.85%
2 2003-02-11 25.1 @ Murata 4 916 71.08% La Fiorita 0 559 6.63% 22.29%
3 2003-03-15 25.9 @ Faetano 3 932 69.41% Montevito 0 598 7.29% 23.30%
4 2003-03-01 26.1 Pennarossa 2 965 74.71% @ La Fiorita 0 544 5.33% 19.96%
5 2002-10-20 27.8 Cailungo 4 915 62.35% @ La Fiorita 0 655 10.57% 27.08%
6 2003-03-19 27.8 Libertas 2 928 68.91% @ La Fiorita 0 588 7.49% 23.59%
7 2003-03-22 28.1 Pennarossa 5 1006 74.55% @ Montevito 1 587 5.38% 20.07%
8 2002-11-05 28.4 @ Pennarossa 9 960 71.44% La Fiorita 1 598 6.50% 22.07%
9 2002-11-17 28.5 @ Cailungo 2 979 66.57% Juvenes Dogana 0 681 8.51% 24.93%
10 2003-02-23 28.7 @ Pennarossa 3 946 59.91% San Giovanni 0 726 11.93% 28.17%
11 2003-02-22 29.1 Domagnano 1 973 75.08% @ La Fiorita 0 546 5.21% 19.72%
12 2002-09-29 29.6 Faetano 3 876 57.03% @ La Fiorita 0 674 13.68% 29.29%
13 2003-03-09 29.8 @ Faetano 4 925 73.19% La Fiorita 1 539 5.86% 20.96%
14 2002-11-23 30.0 Pennarossa 2 925 61.71% @ Juvenes Dogana 0 672 10.91% 27.37%
15 2002-10-23 30.1 Folgore Falciano 2 880 61.23% @ La Fiorita 0 633 11.18% 27.59%
16 2003-03-19 30.3 @ Murata 2 984 60.81% Juvenes Dogana 0 755 11.41% 27.78%
17 2002-11-02 30.4 @ Virtus 4 966 71.30% La Fiorita 1 606 6.55% 22.15%
18 2002-10-22 31.2 @ Cailungo 2 937 57.67% Montevito 0 741 13.27% 29.05%
19 2003-03-30 31.2 @ Folgore Falciano 2 765 57.67% La Fiorita 0 569 13.28% 29.06%
20 2002-11-03 32.5 @ Cailungo 2 968 53.49% San Giovanni 0 814 16.07% 30.43%
21 2002-09-28 32.6 @ Libertas 1 1001 63.53% Tre Penne 0 740 9.96% 26.51%
22 2002-11-30 32.7 @ Libertas 3 980 46.74% Folgore Falciano 0 887 21.30% 31.95%
23 2002-11-12 32.8 Domagnano 4 882 45.72% @ San Giovanni 0 785 22.16% 32.12%
24 2003-03-23 32.8 @ Libertas 1 936 62.82% San Giovanni 0 684 10.33% 26.86%
25 2003-03-08 33.2 @ Pennarossa 2 970 51.18% Folgore Falciano 0 838 17.77% 31.05%