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2003-04 Campionato Sammarinese Season

154 games · 6 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Pennarossa

46 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Juvenes Dogana

10.60 points above expected

44 points · 33.40 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Folgore Falciano

9.53 points below expected

7 points · 16.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Pennarossa 21 14 4 3 46 41 20 +21 39.53 +6.47
2 Juvenes Dogana 21 13 5 3 44 49 18 +31 33.40 +10.60
3 Murata 20 12 5 3 41 32 14 +18 38.06 +2.94
4 Domagnano 20 12 5 3 41 39 23 +16 36.16 +4.84
5 Cailungo 21 13 1 7 40 43 22 +21 39.11 +0.89
6 Virtus 20 11 5 4 38 48 24 +24 35.96 +2.04
7 Tre Fiori 20 10 5 5 35 35 20 +15 28.96 +6.04
8 Libertas 21 9 6 6 33 29 20 +9 33.61 -0.61
9 Tre Penne 21 7 2 12 23 22 35 -13 26.29 -3.29
10 San Giovanni 21 5 7 9 22 23 37 -14 25.33 -3.33
11 Faetano 20 5 6 9 21 23 28 -5 26.26 -5.26
12 La Fiorita 21 5 6 10 21 24 33 -9 19.33 +1.67
13 Cosmos 20 3 2 15 11 15 48 -33 18.90 -7.90
14 Folgore Falciano 21 1 4 16 7 15 58 -43 16.53 -9.53
15 Montevito 20 1 3 16 6 16 54 -38 13.16 -7.16

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Juvenes Dogana 44 33.40 +10.60
2 Pennarossa 46 39.53 +6.47
3 Tre Fiori 35 28.96 +6.04
4 Domagnano 41 36.16 +4.84
5 Murata 41 38.06 +2.94

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 7 16.53 -9.53
2 Cosmos 11 18.90 -7.90
3 Montevito 6 13.16 -7.16
4 Faetano 21 26.26 -5.26
5 San Giovanni 22 25.33 -3.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Penne 3 Oct 7 – Oct 26 1 in 35
2 Domagnano 5 Mar 14 – Apr 7 1 in 22
3 Pennarossa 6 Dec 13 – Mar 28 1 in 19
4 Cailungo 4 Sep 12 – Sep 27 1 in 13
5 Virtus 4 Mar 17 – Apr 7 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cosmos 8 Sep 23 – Nov 12 1 in 265
2 Montevito 11 Sep 21 – Nov 23 1 in 106
3 Tre Penne 5 Sep 13 – Oct 3 1 in 73
4 Faetano 5 Mar 13 – Mar 28 1 in 48
5 Cailungo 3 Nov 22 – Mar 6 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Juvenes Dogana 13 Sep 20 – Dec 13 1 in 612
2 La Fiorita 7 Nov 21 – Mar 19 1 in 115
3 Tre Fiori 8 Sep 24 – Nov 12 1 in 72
4 San Giovanni 4 Sep 23 – Oct 8 1 in 10
5 Murata 8 Oct 3 – Nov 15 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cosmos 10 Sep 13 – Nov 12 1 in 46
2 Murata 4 Nov 23 – Mar 6 1 in 36
3 Tre Penne 7 Dec 6 – Mar 27 1 in 22
4 Montevito 15 Sep 13 – Mar 13 1 in 15
5 Libertas 4 Oct 3 – Oct 26 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Pennarossa 1079 46 +50 13 11.3 +1.7
Juvenes Dogana 1035 44 +48 12 10.9 +1.1
Domagnano 1014 41 +70 15 9.5 +5.5
Murata 1016 41 +33 12 9.9 +2.1
Cailungo 970 40 +30 9 9.1 -0.1
Virtus 1048 38 +32 12 9.1 +2.9
Tre Fiori 936 35 -13 6 7.9 -1.9
Libertas 905 33 +15 9 7.7 +1.3
Tre Penne 747 23 -14 7 5.4 +1.6
San Giovanni 673 22 -94 1 3.9 -2.9
La Fiorita 714 21 +17 6 4.7 +1.3
Faetano 800 21 -40 3 5.4 -2.4
Cosmos 605 11 -56 3 3.9 -0.9
Folgore Falciano 529 7 -58 1 2.6 -1.6
Montevito 561 6 +1 3 2.6 +0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FF JD LF LIB MON MUR PEN SG TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
1-0-0
2.39
0-0-1
1.74
0-0-1
2.08
2-0-0
4.58
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
4.49
2-0-0
3.23
1-0-0
2.46
0-0-1
1.61
1-0-1
2.69
1-1-0
4.09
1-0-0
1.65
1-0-1
4.06
0-0-1
1.79
Cosmos
0-0-1
0.42
 —
0-1-1
1.31
1-0-1
2.15
0-0-1
1.72
0-0-1
0.91
0-0-1
1.46
0-0-1
0.62
0-1-1
3.79
0-0-2
1.04
0-0-1
0.53
1-0-0
0.87
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-0
0.74
0-0-2
1.52
Domagnano
1-0-0
1.05
1-1-0
4.30
 —
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-0
2.38
0-0-1
1.55
1-0-0
2.29
1-0-0
1.73
2-0-0
4.75
1-1-0
2.72
0-0-1
1.43
0-1-0
2.02
1-1-0
3.56
0-0-1
2.08
1-1-0
2.61
Faetano
1-0-0
0.71
1-0-1
3.43
0-0-2
1.58
 —
1-0-0
2.02
0-1-0
0.91
0-1-0
1.96
0-1-0
1.10
2-0-0
3.76
0-1-1
1.83
0-0-1
0.88
0-0-1
1.70
0-1-1
2.37
0-1-0
1.30
0-0-2
2.41
Folgore Falciano
0-0-2
1.04
1-0-0
1.07
0-0-1
0.43
0-0-1
0.77
 —
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-2
1.50
0-1-0
1.69
0-0-1
0.42
0-1-1
1.19
0-0-2
2.25
0-0-1
0.62
0-1-1
1.91
0-0-1
0.64
Juvenes Dogana
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-0
1.88
1-0-0
1.23
0-1-0
1.88
2-0-0
4.50
 —
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-0
2.31
0-1-0
0.98
0-1-1
2.17
1-1-0
3.68
0-1-0
1.32
2-0-0
3.43
1-0-0
1.17
La Fiorita
0-0-2
1.12
1-0-0
1.33
0-0-1
0.52
0-1-0
0.83
1-1-0
3.23
0-0-2
1.74
 —
0-1-1
1.39
1-0-0
1.80
0-1-0
0.46
0-0-2
1.13
0-1-1
2.07
0-0-1
0.66
2-0-0
1.88
0-1-0
0.51
Libertas
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-0
2.18
0-0-1
1.06
0-1-0
1.68
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
2.93
1-1-0
4.20
 —
1-0-0
2.33
0-1-0
0.99
0-1-1
2.29
1-1-0
3.67
0-0-1
1.64
2-0-0
3.63
0-1-0
1.31
Montevito
0-0-1
0.37
1-1-0
1.80
0-0-2
0.88
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-0
1.10
0-0-1
0.50
0-0-1
0.99
0-0-1
0.48
 —
0-0-2
0.89
0-0-1
0.50
0-0-1
0.72
0-1-1
1.40
0-0-1
0.60
0-0-2
0.75
Murata
1-0-0
1.18
2-0-0
4.58
0-1-1
2.85
1-1-0
3.75
1-0-0
2.39
0-1-0
1.81
0-1-0
2.36
0-1-0
1.80
2-0-0
4.74
 —
1-0-0
1.39
1-0-0
2.12
2-0-0
3.41
0-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.69
Pennarossa
1-0-1
2.88
1-0-0
2.27
1-0-0
1.35
1-0-0
1.91
1-1-0
4.44
1-1-0
3.41
2-0-0
4.48
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-0
2.31
0-0-1
1.39
 —
1-1-0
4.42
0-0-1
1.63
2-0-0
4.17
1-0-0
1.29
San Giovanni
0-1-1
1.50
0-0-1
1.92
0-1-0
0.77
1-0-0
1.09
2-0-0
3.33
0-1-1
1.91
1-1-0
3.51
0-1-1
1.91
1-0-0
2.08
0-0-1
0.68
0-1-1
1.19
 —
0-0-1
0.78
0-0-2
2.79
0-1-0
0.94
Tre Fiori
0-0-1
1.14
2-0-0
3.72
0-1-1
2.02
1-1-0
3.21
1-0-0
2.18
0-1-0
1.47
1-0-0
2.13
1-0-0
1.15
1-1-0
4.21
0-0-2
2.17
1-0-0
1.16
1-0-0
2.02
 —
1-0-0
1.45
0-1-1
2.20
Tre Penne
1-0-1
1.54
0-0-1
2.06
1-0-0
0.72
0-1-0
1.49
1-1-0
3.67
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
3.70
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-0
2.20
1-0-0
0.75
0-0-2
1.42
2-0-0
2.79
0-0-1
1.34
 —
0-0-1
0.96
Virtus
1-0-0
1.00
2-0-0
4.09
0-1-1
2.96
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-0
2.16
0-0-1
1.62
0-1-0
2.30
0-1-0
1.48
2-0-0
4.89
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-1
1.50
0-1-0
1.85
1-1-0
3.38
1-0-0
1.83
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.84 +10.7
Allowed 0.88 -9.3
Differential 0.96 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.84%8.44%4.87%3.57%1.62%3.25%27.60%
18.44%8.44%7.47%4.55%0.65%0.32%29.87%
24.87%7.47%5.84%3.25%0.97%0.32%22.73%
33.57%4.55%3.25%1.30%——12.66%
41.62%0.65%0.97%———3.25%
5+3.25%0.32%0.32%———3.90%
Total27.60%29.87%22.73%12.66%3.25%3.90%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.47 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 2.16
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 154

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%4.76%———14.29%
19.52%4.76%4.76%9.52%——28.57%
29.52%14.29%—4.76%——28.57%
39.52%4.76%————14.29%
4——4.76%———4.76%
5+9.52%—————9.52%
Total38.10%33.33%14.29%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.05 +1.00
SD 1.72 1.07 2.32
CV 0.84 1.02 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—15.00%15.00%10.00%—45.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%15.00%——35.00%
2—5.00%—5.00%5.00%5.00%20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total15.00%10.00%20.00%35.00%15.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 2.40 -1.65
SD 0.79 1.43 1.57
CV 1.05 0.60 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%—5.00%———15.00%
15.00%——10.00%——15.00%
25.00%30.00%10.00%———45.00%
35.00%—5.00%5.00%——15.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total35.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 1.15 +0.80
SD 1.28 1.09 1.79
CV 0.65 0.95 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.00%10.00%10.00%——5.00%40.00%
110.00%5.00%15.00%———30.00%
25.00%—5.00%5.00%——15.00%
3—5.00%—5.00%——10.00%
4———————
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total35.00%20.00%30.00%10.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.40 -0.25
SD 1.35 1.50 2.10
CV 1.17 1.07 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—19.05%4.76%14.29%14.29%9.52%61.90%
1—9.52%—4.76%4.76%—19.05%
2——9.52%—4.76%—14.29%
3———————
4———————
5+——4.76%———4.76%
Total—28.57%19.05%19.05%23.81%9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.71 2.76 -2.05
SD 1.23 1.61 2.18
CV 1.72 0.58 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%4.76%4.76%———23.81%
1—4.76%————4.76%
29.52%14.29%4.76%4.76%——33.33%
39.52%4.76%————14.29%
4——9.52%———9.52%
5+9.52%4.76%————14.29%
Total42.86%33.33%19.05%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.86 +1.48
SD 1.88 0.91 2.09
CV 0.81 1.06 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%14.29%—14.29%——33.33%
19.52%9.52%14.29%4.76%——38.10%
2——14.29%———14.29%
3——9.52%———9.52%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+———————
Total19.05%23.81%38.10%19.05%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.57 -0.43
SD 1.15 1.03 1.63
CV 1.01 0.65 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—4.76%4.76%——23.81%
114.29%9.52%19.05%———42.86%
24.76%4.76%4.76%———14.29%
34.76%4.76%————9.52%
44.76%4.76%————9.52%
5+———————
Total42.86%23.81%28.57%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.38 0.95 +0.43
SD 1.24 0.97 1.72
CV 0.90 1.02 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—20.00%10.00%——15.00%45.00%
1—5.00%5.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
2——10.00%—5.00%—15.00%
3—5.00%————5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total—30.00%25.00%15.00%10.00%20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.80 2.70 -1.90
SD 0.89 1.63 1.92
CV 1.12 0.60 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%————15.00%
130.00%5.00%10.00%———45.00%
210.00%—10.00%———20.00%
3——10.00%———10.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+5.00%—————5.00%
Total60.00%10.00%30.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 0.70 +0.90
SD 1.31 0.92 1.52
CV 0.82 1.32 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.76%————4.76%
114.29%14.29%4.76%4.76%——38.10%
29.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
39.52%14.29%9.52%———33.33%
4—4.76%————4.76%
5+———————
Total33.33%42.86%19.05%4.76%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.95 +1.00
SD 1.07 0.86 1.38
CV 0.55 0.91 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%—4.76%—9.52%23.81%
114.29%23.81%14.29%———52.38%
24.76%—4.76%4.76%——14.29%
3——4.76%4.76%——9.52%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.05%33.33%23.81%14.29%—9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 1.76 -0.67
SD 0.89 1.58 1.93
CV 0.81 0.90 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.00%————20.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%———20.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%——30.00%
310.00%10.00%—5.00%——25.00%
45.00%—————5.00%
5+———————
Total35.00%40.00%15.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.00 +0.75
SD 1.21 0.97 1.52
CV 0.69 0.97 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.76%19.05%9.52%——9.52%42.86%
14.76%4.76%9.52%4.76%——23.81%
2—14.29%—4.76%——19.05%
34.76%4.76%4.76%———14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%42.86%23.81%9.52%—9.52%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.67 -0.62
SD 1.12 1.39 1.99
CV 1.07 0.83 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.00%———5.00%
1—20.00%————20.00%
210.00%10.00%5.00%15.00%——40.00%
3—15.00%5.00%———20.00%
4———————
5+15.00%—————15.00%
Total25.00%45.00%15.00%15.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.40 1.20 +1.20
SD 1.50 1.01 2.14
CV 0.63 0.84 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Pennarossa 1121 46 39.53 +6.47 90.0% 24 30 35 40 43 48 51
Domagnano 1058 41 36.16 +4.84 81.0% 21 26 33 36 40 47 53
Virtus 1023 38 35.96 +2.04 66.0% 24 27 33 36 40 44 47
Murata 1005 41 38.06 +2.94 74.0% 25 28 34 39 42 48 54
Juvenes Dogana 978 44 33.40 +10.60 96.0% 23 23 28 33 38 44 47
Cailungo 977 40 39.11 +0.89 56.0% 23 29 35 40 44 47 51
Tre Fiori 936 35 28.96 +6.04 86.0% 15 19 26 29 32 39 42
Libertas 905 33 33.61 -0.61 46.0% 16 25 31 34 37 42 45
Faetano 800 21 26.26 -5.26 20.0% 13 17 22 26 30 36 39
Tre Penne 747 23 26.29 -3.29 31.0% 11 15 21 27 30 36 41
La Fiorita 714 21 19.33 +1.67 68.0% 4 11 16 19 23 29 32
San Giovanni 673 22 25.33 -3.33 24.0% 11 17 23 25 28 34 37
Cosmos 605 11 18.90 -7.90 6.0% 8 11 15 18 22 26 31
Montevito 561 6 13.16 -7.16 9.0% 2 5 10 13 17 20 26
Folgore Falciano 529 7 16.53 -9.53 3.0% 7 10 13 16 20 24 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.95%
Clear Edge
40.26%21.43%38.31%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 6.77 Elo pts.
153 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.04 goals
Neutral
-2+0.04+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.2
Wide Open
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
38%
Pennarossa, 3rd of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.10/gm
Tight Race
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.38 * Some Luck: 4.38 to 6.57 * Lucky: 6.57 to 8.76 * Wild Swing: 8.76 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.5 * Close: 1.5 to 2.25 * Off: 2.25 to 3 * Way Off: 3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.69 points
Some Luck
05.4814
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.93
Pinpoint
01.884
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
96.00%
Juvenes Dogana
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
3.00%
Folgore Falciano
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.26
Top-Heavy
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 191.41
2.21
Wide Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Slight Separation
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.18
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.54
Strong Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.27
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.081
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Murata 2
Cailungo 1
Virtus 3
Juvenes Dogana 1

Second Round

Pennarossa 5
Murata 3
Domagnano 2
Virtus 1

Third Round

Murata 3
Juvenes Dogana 1
Cailungo 4
Virtus 2

Quarterfinals

Domagnano 4
Pennarossa 1

Sim: 3.0%

Cailungo 3
Murata 1

Sim: 5.0%

Semifinals

Pennarossa 3
Cailungo 0

Sim: 8.0%

Finals

Pennarossa 4
Domagnano 2

Sim: 6.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Pennarossa38.00%30.00%18.00%7.00%7.00%———
Juvenes Dogana13.00%19.00%16.00%28.00%12.00%11.00%1.00%—
Murata41.00%25.00%24.00%6.00%4.00%———
Domagnano27.00%31.00%23.00%13.00%6.00%———
Cailungo40.00%25.00%26.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%——
Virtus28.00%32.00%24.00%13.00%3.00%———
Tre Fiori2.00%7.00%19.00%36.00%28.00%8.00%——
Libertas7.00%18.00%30.00%28.00%11.00%5.00%—1.00%
Tre Penne1.00%4.00%5.00%16.00%33.00%23.00%9.00%9.00%
San Giovanni1.00%3.00%5.00%12.00%24.00%37.00%15.00%3.00%
Faetano2.00%5.00%8.00%28.00%35.00%21.00%1.00%—
La Fiorita—1.00%—4.00%8.00%15.00%42.00%30.00%
Cosmos——2.00%4.00%19.00%55.00%20.00%—
Folgore Falciano————2.00%8.00%33.00%57.00%
Montevito————5.00%16.00%79.00%—

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Cailungo —
Cosmos 98.00%
Domagnano —
Faetano 85.00%
Folgore Falciano 100%
Juvenes Dogana —
La Fiorita 99.00%
Libertas 45.00%
Montevito 100%
Murata —
Pennarossa —
San Giovanni 91.00%
Tre Fiori 72.00%
Tre Penne 90.00%
Virtus —
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenes DoganaLibertasMurataPennarossaSan GiovanniTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo0.0%1.00%43.8%16.00%66.7%3.00%55.6%9.00%50.0%6.00%40.0%10.00%
Cosmos100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Domagnano56.2%16.00%55.6%9.00%83.3%12.00%20.0%15.00%75.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%
Faetano33.3%3.00%0.0%3.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%
Juvenes Dogana44.4%9.00%100.0%3.00%66.7%12.00%66.7%3.00%53.3%15.00%
Libertas16.7%12.00%33.3%3.00%20.0%10.00%66.7%9.00%0.0%7.00%
Murata44.4%9.00%33.3%12.00%80.0%10.00%71.4%14.00%40.0%5.00%
Pennarossa100.0%1.00%80.0%15.00%100.0%3.00%28.6%14.00%27.3%11.00%71.4%14.00%
San Giovanni25.0%4.00%
Tre Fiori50.0%6.00%33.3%3.00%33.3%9.00%72.7%11.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%
Virtus60.0%10.00%46.7%15.00%100.0%7.00%28.6%14.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenes DoganaLibertasMurataPennarossaSan GiovanniTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo41.7%12.00%100.0%2.00%75.0%8.00%66.7%6.00%42.9%14.00%20.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%30.0%10.00%
Cosmos0.0%1.00%
Domagnano58.3%12.00%100.0%3.00%57.1%7.00%50.0%2.00%71.4%7.00%33.3%12.00%75.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%30.0%10.00%
Faetano0.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%
Juvenes Dogana25.0%8.00%42.9%7.00%100.0%4.00%85.7%7.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Libertas33.3%6.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%4.00%57.1%7.00%40.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%
Murata57.1%14.00%100.0%1.00%28.6%7.00%14.3%7.00%42.9%7.00%53.8%13.00%85.7%7.00%15.4%13.00%
Pennarossa80.0%10.00%66.7%12.00%80.0%5.00%60.0%5.00%46.2%13.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%70.0%10.00%
San Giovanni0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori0.0%3.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%2.00%14.3%7.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Tre Penne0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Virtus70.0%10.00%70.0%10.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%84.6%13.00%30.0%10.00%50.0%2.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenes DoganaLibertasMurataPennarossaSan GiovanniTre FioriTre PenneVirtus
Cailungo28.6%7.00%50.0%4.00%16.7%6.00%37.5%8.00%33.3%3.00%75.0%4.00%
Cosmos
Domagnano71.4%7.00%100.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%14.3%7.00%66.7%6.00%
Faetano
Juvenes Dogana50.0%4.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%3.00%50.0%6.00%80.0%5.00%
Libertas50.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%3.00%20.0%5.00%
Murata83.3%6.00%66.7%6.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%57.1%7.00%50.0%6.00%
Pennarossa62.5%8.00%85.7%7.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%3.00%42.9%7.00%50.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%
San Giovanni
Tre Fiori66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Tre Penne
Virtus25.0%4.00%33.3%6.00%20.0%5.00%80.0%5.00%50.0%6.00%60.0%5.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team Quarterfinals Semifinals Finals
Pennarossa 100% 88.07% 27.81%
Domagnano 100% 52.09% 16.74%
Virtus 64.37% 31.28% 16.23%
Juvenes Dogana 62.15% 29.04% 15.73%
Murata 72.36% 31.54% 15.27%
Cailungo 54.16% 21.03% 8.22%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoJuvenes DoganaMurataPennarossaVirtus
Cailungo42.8%126.52%
Domagnano41.0%253.04%
Juvenes Dogana49.1%126.52%
Murata57.2%126.52%
Pennarossa59.0%253.04%
Virtus50.9%126.52%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoJuvenes DoganaMurataPennarossaVirtus
Cailungo43.4%21.61%35.8%32.55%
Domagnano56.6%21.61%48.2%26.48%50.3%28.85%47.2%26.70%
Juvenes Dogana51.8%26.48%43.0%35.67%
Murata49.7%28.85%39.5%43.51%
Pennarossa64.2%32.55%57.0%35.67%60.5%43.51%54.4%37.68%
Virtus52.8%26.70%45.6%37.68%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoJuvenes DoganaMurataPennarossaVirtus
Cailungo36.7%3.90%39.7%5.35%39.1%6.44%40.3%5.34%
Domagnano63.3%3.90%40.6%6.20%47.2%6.62%42.7%13.52%44.2%6.47%
Juvenes Dogana60.3%5.35%59.4%6.20%52.4%7.25%49.1%10.24%
Murata52.8%6.62%47.6%7.25%47.0%9.21%47.2%8.46%
Pennarossa60.9%6.44%57.3%13.52%50.9%10.24%53.0%9.21%54.8%11.01%
Virtus59.7%5.34%55.8%6.47%52.8%8.46%45.2%11.01%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2003-09-12 Cailungo L 0-136.1 785 914 23.79% 20.96% 55.26%-0.80 -11.7 0
2003-09-12 @ Juvenes Dogana W 1-036.1 914 785 55.26% 20.96% 23.79%+0.80 +11.7 3
2003-09-13 Montevito D 1-153.4 851 719 57.12% 20.85% 22.03%+0.91 -3.5 1
2003-09-13 @ Cosmos D 1-153.4 719 851 22.03% 20.85% 57.12%-0.91 +3.5 1
2003-09-13 La Fiorita L 2-357.4 846 694 59.12% 20.70% 20.17%+1.04 -22.7 0
2003-09-13 @ Tre Penne W 3-257.4 694 846 20.17% 20.70% 59.12%-1.04 +22.7 3
2003-09-13 Libertas D 1-153.3 775 879 26.58% 21.10% 52.32%-0.64 +2.5 1
2003-09-13 @ San Giovanni D 1-153.3 879 775 52.32% 21.10% 26.58%+0.64 -2.5 1
2003-09-13 Virtus L 0-639.0 890 844 46.64% 21.27% 32.08%+0.34 -107.0 0
2003-09-13 @ Faetano W 6-039.0 844 890 32.08% 21.27% 46.64%-0.34 +107.0 3
2003-09-14 Pennarossa D 1-153.4 811 941 23.75% 20.96% 55.29%-0.80 +3.1 1
2003-09-14 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-153.4 941 811 55.29% 20.96% 23.75%+0.80 -3.1 1
2003-09-14 Tre Fiori W 1-035.8 917 791 56.30% 20.90% 22.80%+0.86 +11.3 3
2003-09-14 @ Murata L 0-135.8 791 917 22.80% 20.90% 56.30%-0.86 -11.3 0
2003-09-20 Cosmos D 0-049.1 974 848 56.42% 20.89% 22.69%+0.87 -3.7 1
2003-09-20 @ Domagnano D 0-049.1 848 974 22.69% 20.89% 56.42%-0.87 +3.7 2
2003-09-20 Folgore Falciano W 3-033.7 877 814 48.86% 21.22% 29.92%+0.46 +39.0 4
2003-09-20 @ Libertas L 0-333.7 814 877 29.92% 21.22% 48.86%-0.46 -39.0 1
2003-09-20 Juvenes Dogana L 1-244.3 717 773 32.51% 21.28% 46.21%-0.32 -14.4 3
2003-09-20 @ La Fiorita W 2-144.3 773 717 46.21% 21.28% 32.51%+0.32 +14.4 3
2003-09-20 Murata L 2-352.9 951 928 43.48% 21.32% 35.19%+0.19 -17.2 3
2003-09-20 @ Virtus W 3-252.9 928 951 35.19% 21.32% 43.48%-0.19 +17.2 6
2003-09-20 San Giovanni W 2-140.1 938 778 59.92% 20.64% 19.44%+1.09 +9.3 4
2003-09-20 @ Pennarossa L 1-240.1 778 938 19.44% 20.64% 59.92%-1.09 -9.3 1
2003-09-20 Tre Penne W 2-034.0 926 824 53.72% 21.04% 25.24%+0.71 +23.3 6
2003-09-20 @ Cailungo L 0-234.0 824 926 25.24% 21.04% 53.72%-0.71 -23.3 0
2003-09-21 Faetano L 1-341.9 722 783 31.95% 21.27% 46.78%-0.35 -24.5 1
2003-09-21 @ Montevito W 3-141.9 783 722 46.78% 21.27% 31.95%+0.35 +24.5 3
2003-09-23 Cailungo L 1-344.3 947 949 39.94% 21.34% 38.72%+0.03 -29.3 4
2003-09-23 @ Pennarossa W 3-144.3 949 947 38.72% 21.34% 39.94%-0.03 +29.3 9
2003-09-23 San Giovanni L 0-238.9 775 768 41.24% 21.34% 37.42%+0.09 -34.8 1
2003-09-23 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-038.9 768 775 37.42% 21.34% 41.24%-0.09 +34.8 4
2003-09-23 Virtus L 0-235.2 852 933 29.24% 21.20% 49.56%-0.49 -26.4 2
2003-09-23 @ Cosmos W 2-035.2 933 852 49.56% 21.20% 29.24%+0.49 +26.4 6
2003-09-24 Domagnano L 0-140.1 945 970 36.72% 21.34% 41.94%-0.12 -16.8 6
2003-09-24 @ Murata W 1-040.1 970 945 41.94% 21.34% 36.72%+0.12 +16.8 4
2003-09-24 Faetano D 3-363.3 780 807 36.46% 21.33% 42.20%-0.13 +0.3 1
2003-09-24 @ Tre Fiori D 3-363.3 807 780 42.20% 21.33% 36.46%+0.13 -0.3 4
2003-09-24 Libertas L 1-239.0 703 916 16.10% 20.27% 63.63%-1.35 -7.8 3
2003-09-24 @ La Fiorita W 2-139.0 916 703 63.63% 20.27% 16.10%+1.35 +7.8 7
2003-09-24 Tre Penne W 2-146.6 788 800 38.47% 21.34% 40.18%-0.04 +17.0 6
2003-09-24 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-246.6 800 788 40.18% 21.34% 38.47%+0.04 -17.0 0
2003-09-27 Cosmos W 2-038.8 807 825 37.67% 21.34% 40.99%-0.08 +34.6 7
2003-09-27 @ Faetano L 0-238.8 825 807 40.99% 21.34% 37.67%+0.08 -34.6 2
2003-09-27 Montevito W 2-034.7 780 698 51.39% 21.14% 27.48%+0.59 +25.0 4
2003-09-27 @ Tre Fiori L 0-234.7 698 780 27.48% 21.14% 51.39%-0.59 -25.0 1
2003-09-27 Folgore Falciano W 7-029.1 979 740 66.80% 19.86% 13.35%+1.60 +42.2 12
2003-09-27 @ Cailungo L 0-729.1 740 979 13.35% 19.86% 66.80%-1.60 -42.2 1
2003-09-27 La Fiorita W 1-036.4 803 695 54.41% 21.00% 24.59%+0.75 +12.1 7
2003-09-27 @ San Giovanni L 0-136.4 695 803 24.59% 21.00% 54.41%-0.75 -12.1 3
2003-09-27 Pennarossa D 1-153.3 805 917 25.59% 21.06% 53.35%-0.69 +2.7 7
2003-09-27 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-153.3 917 805 53.35% 21.06% 25.59%+0.69 -2.7 5
2003-09-28 Tre Penne W 1-035.3 924 783 57.94% 20.79% 21.27%+0.96 +10.6 10
2003-09-28 @ Libertas L 0-135.3 783 924 21.27% 20.79% 57.94%-0.96 -10.7 0
2003-09-28 Virtus D 2-259.1 987 960 44.14% 21.31% 34.54%+0.22 -0.7 5
2003-09-28 @ Domagnano D 2-259.1 960 987 34.54% 21.31% 44.14%-0.22 +0.7 7
2003-10-03 Folgore Falciano D 2-259.1 683 698 38.11% 21.34% 40.55%-0.06 +0.2 4
2003-10-03 @ La Fiorita D 2-259.1 698 683 40.55% 21.34% 38.11%+0.06 -0.2 2
2003-10-03 Juvenes Dogana L 1-251.3 934 807 56.51% 20.89% 22.61%+0.87 -22.9 10
2003-10-03 @ Libertas W 2-151.3 807 934 22.61% 20.89% 56.51%-0.87 +22.9 10
2003-10-03 Murata D 1-153.3 841 928 28.61% 21.18% 50.21%-0.52 +2.1 8
2003-10-03 @ Faetano D 1-153.3 928 841 50.21% 21.18% 28.61%+0.52 -2.1 7
2003-10-03 Pennarossa L 0-135.7 773 915 22.45% 20.88% 56.67%-0.88 -11.2 0
2003-10-03 @ Tre Penne W 1-035.7 915 773 56.67% 20.88% 22.45%+0.88 +11.2 8
2003-10-04 Domagnano L 0-228.8 673 986 9.83% 19.07% 71.10%-2.01 -9.8 1
2003-10-04 @ Montevito W 2-028.8 986 673 71.10% 19.07% 9.83%+2.01 +9.8 8
2003-10-05 Cailungo D 1-153.6 815 1021 16.70% 20.35% 62.95%-1.30 +4.7 8
2003-10-05 @ San Giovanni D 1-153.6 1021 815 62.95% 20.35% 16.70%+1.30 -4.7 13
2003-10-05 Tre Fiori L 0-336.3 791 805 38.16% 21.34% 40.49%-0.05 -47.5 2
2003-10-05 @ Cosmos W 3-036.3 805 791 40.49% 21.34% 38.16%+0.05 +47.5 7
2003-10-07 Folgore Falciano W 1-038.0 762 698 48.95% 21.22% 29.83%+0.46 +14.2 3
2003-10-07 @ Tre Penne L 0-138.0 698 762 29.83% 21.22% 48.95%-0.46 -14.2 2
2003-10-07 La Fiorita W 1-032.6 926 683 67.14% 19.80% 13.05%+1.63 +6.8 11
2003-10-07 @ Pennarossa L 0-132.6 683 926 13.05% 19.80% 67.14%-1.63 -6.8 4
2003-10-07 Murata L 0-527.8 663 926 12.61% 19.72% 67.67%-1.68 -29.1 1
2003-10-07 @ Montevito W 5-027.8 926 663 67.67% 19.72% 12.61%+1.68 +29.1 10
2003-10-08 Faetano W 2-140.4 996 843 59.21% 20.70% 20.09%+1.04 +9.5 11
2003-10-08 @ Domagnano L 1-240.4 843 996 20.09% 20.70% 59.21%-1.04 -9.6 8
2003-10-08 Juvenes Dogana D 2-259.1 820 830 38.84% 21.34% 39.82%-0.02 +0.1 9
2003-10-08 @ San Giovanni D 2-259.1 830 820 39.82% 21.34% 38.84%+0.02 -0.1 11
2003-10-08 Tre Fiori D 1-153.4 960 853 54.31% 21.01% 24.69%+0.75 -2.9 8
2003-10-08 @ Virtus D 1-153.4 853 960 24.69% 21.01% 54.31%-0.75 +2.9 8
2003-10-11 Domagnano D 0-049.1 856 1006 21.67% 20.82% 57.51%-0.94 +4.0 9
2003-10-11 @ Tre Fiori D 0-049.1 1006 856 57.51% 20.82% 21.67%+0.94 -4.0 12
2003-10-11 Montevito W 3-134.2 957 634 72.52% 18.74% 8.75%+2.16 +7.5 11
2003-10-11 @ Virtus L 1-334.2 634 957 8.75% 18.74% 72.52%-2.16 -7.5 1
2003-10-11 La Fiorita W 3-026.4 1016 676 73.43% 18.50% 8.07%+2.27 +11.6 16
2003-10-11 @ Cailungo L 0-326.4 676 1016 8.07% 18.50% 73.43%-2.27 -11.6 4
2003-10-11 Libertas D 2-259.1 933 912 43.29% 21.32% 35.39%+0.18 -0.5 12
2003-10-11 @ Pennarossa D 2-259.1 912 933 35.39% 21.32% 43.29%-0.18 +0.6 11
2003-10-11 San Giovanni W 3-038.2 776 820 34.07% 21.31% 44.62%-0.25 +53.9 6
2003-10-11 @ Tre Penne L 0-338.2 820 776 44.62% 21.31% 34.07%+0.25 -53.9 9
2003-10-12 Cosmos W 2-030.7 955 743 64.71% 20.14% 15.15%+1.43 +14.8 13
2003-10-12 @ Murata L 0-230.7 743 955 15.15% 20.14% 64.71%-1.43 -14.8 2
2003-10-12 Juvenes Dogana L 0-331.3 684 830 22.01% 20.85% 57.14%-0.91 -30.1 2
2003-10-12 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-031.3 830 684 57.14% 20.85% 22.01%+0.91 +30.1 14
2003-10-17 Tre Fiori L 1-248.7 912 860 47.48% 21.25% 31.26%+0.39 -19.6 11
2003-10-17 @ Libertas W 2-148.7 860 912 31.26% 21.25% 47.48%-0.39 +19.5 12
2003-10-18 Cailungo W 1-043.0 970 1028 32.32% 21.28% 46.41%-0.33 +20.3 16
2003-10-18 @ Murata L 0-143.0 1028 970 46.41% 21.28% 32.32%+0.33 -20.3 16
2003-10-18 Domagnano L 0-425.9 654 1002 8.29% 18.58% 73.13%-2.23 -15.6 2
2003-10-18 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-025.9 1002 654 73.13% 18.58% 8.29%+2.23 +15.6 15
2003-10-18 Juvenes Dogana L 2-443.5 728 860 23.50% 20.94% 55.55%-0.82 -17.0 2
2003-10-18 @ Cosmos W 4-243.5 860 728 55.55% 20.94% 23.50%+0.82 +17.0 17
2003-10-18 San Giovanni L 2-354.6 834 766 49.47% 21.20% 29.33%+0.49 -19.2 8
2003-10-18 @ Faetano W 3-254.6 766 834 29.33% 21.20% 49.47%-0.49 +19.2 12
2003-10-19 Pennarossa L 1-334.8 626 932 10.22% 19.17% 70.60%-1.96 -8.8 1
2003-10-19 @ Montevito W 3-134.8 932 626 70.60% 19.17% 10.22%+1.96 +8.8 15
2003-10-19 Virtus D 1-153.9 665 965 10.51% 19.25% 70.24%-1.92 +6.3 5
2003-10-19 @ La Fiorita D 1-153.9 965 665 70.24% 19.25% 10.51%+1.92 -6.3 12
2003-10-24 Pennarossa L 2-352.7 959 941 42.80% 21.33% 35.87%+0.16 -17.0 12
2003-10-24 @ Virtus W 3-252.7 941 959 35.87% 21.33% 42.80%-0.16 +17.0 18
2003-10-25 Montevito W 4-237.3 1007 617 76.01% 17.72% 6.27%+2.59 +4.8 19
2003-10-25 @ Cailungo L 2-437.3 617 1007 6.27% 17.72% 76.01%-2.59 -4.8 1
2003-10-25 Folgore Falciano L 2-548.0 711 638 50.18% 21.18% 28.64%+0.52 -43.5 2
2003-10-25 @ Cosmos W 5-248.0 638 711 28.64% 21.18% 50.18%-0.52 +43.5 5
2003-10-25 La Fiorita W 3-136.6 879 671 64.39% 20.18% 15.43%+1.41 +13.0 15
2003-10-25 @ Tre Fiori L 1-336.6 671 879 15.43% 20.18% 64.39%-1.41 -13.0 5
2003-10-25 Murata D 0-049.0 877 990 25.54% 21.05% 53.40%-0.70 +3.0 18
2003-10-25 @ Juvenes Dogana D 0-049.0 990 877 53.40% 21.05% 25.54%+0.70 -3.1 17
2003-10-26 Libertas D 0-049.0 815 893 29.73% 21.21% 49.05%-0.46 +2.1 9
2003-10-26 @ Faetano D 0-049.0 893 815 49.05% 21.21% 29.73%+0.46 -2.1 12
2003-10-26 Tre Penne L 1-350.8 1017 830 62.57% 20.39% 17.04%+1.27 -43.7 15
2003-10-26 @ Domagnano W 3-150.8 830 1017 17.04% 20.39% 62.57%-1.27 +43.7 9
2003-11-04 Domagnano W 3-144.5 958 974 38.05% 21.34% 40.60%-0.06 +29.7 21
2003-11-04 @ Pennarossa L 1-344.5 974 958 40.60% 21.34% 38.05%+0.06 -29.7 15
2003-11-04 Faetano D 2-259.3 658 817 20.79% 20.75% 58.45%-0.99 +2.8 6
2003-11-04 @ La Fiorita D 2-259.3 817 658 58.45% 20.75% 20.79%+0.99 -2.8 10
2003-11-04 San Giovanni W 3-244.3 987 786 63.83% 20.25% 15.92%+1.36 +7.4 20
2003-11-04 @ Murata L 2-344.3 786 987 15.92% 20.25% 63.83%-1.36 -7.4 12
2003-11-05 Cosmos W 2-136.0 1012 668 73.68% 18.43% 7.89%+2.30 +3.9 22
2003-11-05 @ Cailungo L 1-236.0 668 1012 7.89% 18.43% 73.68%-2.30 -3.9 2
2003-11-05 Virtus W 2-040.6 880 942 31.82% 21.27% 46.91%-0.36 +38.7 21
2003-11-05 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-240.6 942 880 46.91% 21.27% 31.82%+0.36 -38.7 12
2003-11-11 Folgore Falciano W 3-136.3 903 682 65.46% 20.05% 14.50%+1.49 +12.3 15
2003-11-11 @ Virtus L 1-336.3 682 903 14.50% 20.05% 65.46%-1.49 -12.3 5
2003-11-11 Juvenes Dogana L 1-629.8 613 919 10.20% 19.17% 70.63%-1.96 -19.6 1
2003-11-11 @ Montevito W 6-129.8 919 613 70.63% 19.17% 10.20%+1.96 +19.6 24
2003-11-11 Murata L 0-140.9 988 995 39.29% 21.35% 39.37%+0.00 -17.7 21
2003-11-11 @ Pennarossa W 1-040.9 995 988 39.37% 21.35% 39.29%+0.00 +17.7 23
2003-11-11 San Giovanni D 3-363.5 944 778 60.50% 20.59% 18.91%+1.13 -2.6 16
2003-11-11 @ Domagnano D 3-363.5 778 944 18.91% 20.59% 60.50%-1.13 +2.6 13
2003-11-12 Cailungo W 1-047.6 814 1016 16.96% 20.38% 62.65%-1.28 +26.8 13
2003-11-12 @ Faetano L 0-147.6 1016 814 62.65% 20.38% 16.96%+1.28 -26.8 22
2003-11-12 Cosmos W 3-136.2 890 664 65.88% 19.99% 14.14%+1.53 +12.0 15
2003-11-12 @ Libertas L 1-336.2 664 890 14.14% 19.99% 65.88%-1.53 -12.0 2
2003-11-12 Tre Fiori L 1-343.6 873 892 37.56% 21.34% 41.09%-0.08 -28.0 9
2003-11-12 @ Tre Penne W 3-143.6 892 873 41.09% 21.34% 37.56%+0.08 +28.0 18
2003-11-14 Montevito W 1-033.9 781 593 62.57% 20.39% 17.04%+1.27 +8.7 16
2003-11-14 @ San Giovanni L 0-133.9 593 781 17.04% 20.39% 62.57%-1.27 -8.7 1
2003-11-15 Cailungo L 1-243.8 920 989 30.86% 21.24% 47.90%-0.41 -13.8 18
2003-11-15 @ Tre Fiori W 2-143.8 989 920 47.90% 21.24% 30.86%+0.41 +13.8 25
2003-11-15 Folgore Falciano W 1-030.6 1012 669 73.61% 18.45% 7.94%+2.29 +4.2 26
2003-11-15 @ Murata L 0-130.6 669 1012 7.94% 18.45% 73.61%-2.29 -4.2 5
2003-11-15 Libertas D 1-153.3 915 902 42.12% 21.34% 36.55%+0.13 -0.5 16
2003-11-15 @ Virtus D 1-153.3 902 915 36.55% 21.34% 42.12%-0.13 +0.5 16
2003-11-15 Tre Penne W 2-152.8 652 845 17.69% 20.46% 61.85%-1.22 +25.0 5
2003-11-15 @ Cosmos L 1-252.8 845 652 61.85% 20.46% 17.69%+1.22 -25.0 9
2003-11-16 Faetano W 2-033.1 970 841 56.75% 20.87% 22.38%+0.89 +21.0 24
2003-11-16 @ Pennarossa L 0-233.1 841 970 22.38% 20.87% 56.75%-0.89 -21.0 13
2003-11-16 La Fiorita W 2-137.2 941 661 69.83% 19.33% 10.84%+1.88 +5.4 19
2003-11-16 @ Domagnano L 1-237.2 661 941 10.84% 19.33% 69.83%-1.88 -5.4 6
2003-11-18 Montevito W 2-138.1 820 584 66.63% 19.88% 13.49%+1.59 +6.6 12
2003-11-18 @ Tre Penne L 1-238.1 584 820 13.49% 19.88% 66.63%-1.59 -6.6 1
2003-11-18 Libertas W 2-034.1 1003 903 53.46% 21.05% 25.49%+0.70 +23.5 28
2003-11-18 @ Cailungo L 0-234.1 903 1003 25.49% 21.05% 53.46%-0.70 -23.5 16
2003-11-18 Tre Fiori L 0-328.6 665 907 14.04% 19.97% 65.98%-1.53 -20.0 5
2003-11-18 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-028.6 907 665 65.98% 19.97% 14.04%+1.53 +20.0 21
2003-11-21 Cosmos W 3-252.3 655 677 37.23% 21.34% 41.43%-0.10 +16.6 9
2003-11-21 @ La Fiorita L 2-352.3 677 655 41.43% 21.34% 37.23%+0.10 -16.6 5
2003-11-22 Domagnano L 1-249.8 1027 947 51.02% 21.15% 27.83%+0.57 -20.8 28
2003-11-22 @ Cailungo W 2-149.8 947 1027 27.83% 21.15% 51.02%-0.57 +20.8 22
2003-11-22 Faetano D 0-049.1 939 820 55.60% 20.94% 23.46%+0.82 -3.6 25
2003-11-22 @ Juvenes Dogana D 0-049.1 820 939 23.46% 20.94% 55.60%-0.82 +3.6 14
2003-11-22 Pennarossa W 2-148.7 927 991 31.45% 21.26% 47.29%-0.38 +19.5 24
2003-11-22 @ Tre Fiori L 1-248.7 991 927 47.29% 21.26% 31.45%+0.38 -19.5 24
2003-11-22 Virtus D 1-153.4 790 915 24.22% 20.98% 54.80%-0.77 +3.0 17
2003-11-22 @ San Giovanni D 1-153.4 915 790 54.80% 20.98% 24.22%+0.77 -3.0 17
2003-11-23 Montevito W 4-132.4 879 578 71.20% 19.05% 9.76%+2.02 +11.9 19
2003-11-23 @ Libertas L 1-432.4 578 879 9.76% 19.05% 71.20%-2.02 -11.9 1
2003-11-23 Murata W 2-152.7 827 1017 18.01% 20.50% 61.50%-1.20 +24.8 15
2003-11-23 @ Tre Penne L 1-252.7 1017 827 61.50% 20.50% 18.01%+1.20 -24.8 26
2003-12-06 Cosmos L 0-146.1 793 660 57.07% 20.85% 22.08%+0.91 -24.5 17
2003-12-06 @ San Giovanni W 1-046.1 660 793 22.08% 20.85% 57.07%-0.91 +24.5 8
2003-12-06 Folgore Falciano D 2-259.1 566 645 29.54% 21.21% 49.25%-0.48 +1.4 2
2003-12-06 @ Montevito D 2-259.1 645 566 49.25% 21.21% 29.54%+0.48 -1.4 6
2003-12-06 Juvenes Dogana D 0-048.9 946 935 41.87% 21.34% 36.79%+0.12 -0.5 25
2003-12-06 @ Tre Fiori D 0-048.9 935 946 36.79% 21.34% 41.87%-0.12 +0.5 26
2003-12-06 La Fiorita D 2-259.9 992 672 72.30% 18.79% 8.91%+2.14 -5.0 27
2003-12-06 @ Murata D 2-259.9 672 992 8.91% 18.79% 72.30%-2.14 +5.0 10
2003-12-06 Tre Penne D 0-048.9 823 852 36.24% 21.33% 42.42%-0.14 +0.6 15
2003-12-06 @ Faetano D 0-048.9 852 823 42.42% 21.33% 36.24%+0.14 -0.6 16
2003-12-07 Libertas W 2-143.0 968 891 50.55% 21.17% 28.28%+0.54 +12.8 25
2003-12-07 @ Domagnano L 1-243.0 891 968 28.28% 21.17% 50.55%-0.54 -12.8 19
2003-12-07 Virtus L 0-242.3 1006 912 52.73% 21.08% 26.19%+0.66 -42.9 28
2003-12-07 @ Cailungo W 2-042.3 912 1006 26.19% 21.08% 52.73%-0.66 +42.9 20
2003-12-13 Domagnano W 2-039.9 936 980 34.02% 21.31% 44.67%-0.25 +37.1 29
2003-12-13 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-239.9 980 936 44.67% 21.31% 34.02%+0.25 -37.1 25
2003-12-13 La Fiorita L 0-136.8 567 677 25.94% 21.07% 52.99%-0.67 -12.6 2
2003-12-13 @ Montevito W 1-036.8 677 567 52.99% 21.07% 25.94%+0.67 +12.6 13
2003-12-13 Murata D 0-049.0 879 987 26.10% 21.08% 52.82%-0.66 +2.9 20
2003-12-13 @ Libertas D 0-049.0 987 879 52.82% 21.08% 26.10%+0.66 -2.9 28
2003-12-13 Pennarossa L 0-327.6 685 971 11.25% 19.43% 69.32%-1.83 -16.2 8
2003-12-13 @ Cosmos W 3-027.6 971 685 69.32% 19.43% 11.25%+1.83 +16.2 27
2003-12-13 Tre Penne W 5-032.0 955 851 53.85% 21.03% 25.12%+0.72 +54.2 23
2003-12-13 @ Virtus L 0-532.0 851 955 25.12% 21.03% 53.85%-0.72 -54.2 16
2003-12-14 Faetano L 0-529.9 644 824 18.83% 20.58% 60.59%-1.13 -42.2 6
2003-12-14 @ Folgore Falciano W 5-029.9 824 644 60.59% 20.58% 18.83%+1.13 +42.2 18
2003-12-14 Tre Fiori L 1-240.0 768 946 19.06% 20.60% 60.33%-1.12 -9.1 17
2003-12-14 @ San Giovanni W 2-140.0 946 768 60.33% 20.60% 19.06%+1.12 +9.1 28
2004-03-06 Cosmos W 3-133.9 1009 669 73.45% 18.49% 8.05%+2.27 +6.9 26
2004-03-06 @ Virtus L 1-333.9 669 1009 8.05% 18.49% 73.45%-2.27 -6.9 8
2004-03-06 Folgore Falciano W 1-034.8 759 602 59.67% 20.66% 19.67%+1.07 +9.9 20
2004-03-06 @ San Giovanni L 0-134.8 602 759 19.67% 20.66% 59.67%-1.07 -9.9 6
2004-03-06 La Fiorita D 0-049.2 881 690 62.95% 20.35% 16.70%+1.30 -5.3 21
2004-03-06 @ Libertas D 0-049.2 690 881 16.70% 20.35% 62.95%-1.30 +5.3 14
2004-03-06 Murata D 2-259.1 943 984 34.57% 21.32% 44.11%-0.22 +0.7 26
2004-03-06 @ Domagnano D 2-259.1 984 943 44.11% 21.32% 34.57%+0.22 -0.7 29
2004-03-06 Pennarossa L 1-343.4 963 988 36.77% 21.34% 41.90%-0.12 -27.5 28
2004-03-06 @ Cailungo W 3-143.4 988 963 41.90% 21.34% 36.77%+0.12 +27.5 30
2004-03-12 Libertas L 0-137.9 797 876 29.57% 21.21% 49.22%-0.47 -14.1 16
2004-03-12 @ Tre Penne W 1-037.9 876 797 49.22% 21.21% 29.57%+0.47 +14.1 24
2004-03-13 Faetano W 1-047.7 662 866 16.79% 20.36% 62.85%-1.29 +26.9 11
2004-03-13 @ Cosmos L 0-147.7 866 662 62.85% 20.36% 16.79%+1.29 -26.9 18
2004-03-13 Juvenes Dogana W 3-249.6 1015 973 46.19% 21.28% 32.53%+0.32 +13.6 33
2004-03-13 @ Pennarossa L 2-349.6 973 1015 32.53% 21.28% 46.19%-0.32 -13.6 29
2004-03-13 San Giovanni D 1-153.3 695 769 30.21% 21.23% 48.56%-0.44 +1.8 15
2004-03-13 @ La Fiorita D 1-153.3 769 695 48.56% 21.23% 30.21%+0.44 -1.8 21
2004-03-13 Tre Fiori D 2-260.2 554 955 6.38% 17.77% 75.85%-2.57 +5.5 3
2004-03-13 @ Montevito D 2-260.2 955 554 75.85% 17.77% 6.38%+2.57 -5.6 29
2004-03-14 Cailungo L 0-130.8 592 935 8.47% 18.64% 72.89%-2.20 -4.5 6
2004-03-14 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-030.8 935 592 72.89% 18.64% 8.47%+2.20 +4.5 31
2004-03-14 Domagnano L 2-354.8 1016 944 50.02% 21.18% 28.79%+0.51 -19.4 26
2004-03-14 @ Virtus W 3-254.8 944 1016 28.79% 21.18% 50.02%-0.51 +19.4 29
2004-03-16 Cosmos W 3-148.8 560 689 23.87% 20.96% 55.17%-0.80 +38.8 6
2004-03-16 @ Montevito L 1-348.8 689 560 55.17% 20.96% 23.87%+0.80 -38.8 11
2004-03-16 San Giovanni W 1-035.9 890 767 56.08% 20.91% 23.01%+0.85 +11.4 27
2004-03-16 @ Libertas L 0-135.9 767 890 23.01% 20.91% 56.08%-0.85 -11.4 21
2004-03-16 Tre Penne W 1-044.1 697 783 28.70% 21.18% 50.12%-0.52 +21.7 18
2004-03-16 @ La Fiorita L 0-144.1 783 697 50.12% 21.18% 28.70%+0.52 -21.7 16
2004-03-17 Faetano W 2-140.2 996 839 59.66% 20.66% 19.68%+1.07 +9.4 29
2004-03-17 @ Virtus L 1-240.2 839 996 19.68% 20.66% 59.66%-1.07 -9.4 18
2004-03-17 Juvenes Dogana L 1-343.6 940 959 37.56% 21.34% 41.10%-0.08 -28.0 31
2004-03-17 @ Cailungo W 3-143.6 959 940 41.10% 21.34% 37.56%+0.08 +28.0 32
2004-03-17 Murata L 0-139.8 949 983 35.48% 21.33% 43.20%-0.18 -16.4 29
2004-03-17 @ Tre Fiori W 1-039.8 983 949 43.20% 21.33% 35.48%+0.18 +16.4 32
2004-03-19 La Fiorita L 0-431.2 587 718 23.59% 20.95% 55.46%-0.81 -41.7 6
2004-03-19 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-031.2 718 587 55.46% 20.95% 23.59%+0.81 +41.7 21
2004-03-20 Faetano W 2-031.8 1000 830 60.89% 20.55% 18.55%+1.15 +17.8 35
2004-03-20 @ Murata L 0-231.8 830 1000 18.55% 20.55% 60.89%-1.15 -17.8 18
2004-03-20 Montevito W 5-025.7 963 599 74.74% 18.13% 7.13%+2.43 +16.5 32
2004-03-20 @ Domagnano L 0-525.7 599 963 7.13% 18.13% 74.74%-2.43 -16.5 6
2004-03-20 San Giovanni W 5-030.2 912 756 59.56% 20.67% 19.77%+1.07 +44.0 34
2004-03-20 @ Cailungo L 0-530.2 756 912 19.77% 20.67% 59.56%-1.07 -44.0 21
2004-03-20 Tre Penne W 2-029.4 1029 761 68.94% 19.50% 11.56%+1.79 +11.4 36
2004-03-20 @ Pennarossa L 0-229.4 761 1029 11.56% 19.50% 68.94%-1.79 -11.4 16
2004-03-21 Cosmos W 4-026.9 933 650 69.98% 19.30% 10.72%+1.89 +20.2 32
2004-03-21 @ Tre Fiori L 0-426.9 650 933 10.72% 19.30% 69.98%-1.89 -20.2 11
2004-03-21 Libertas L 0-242.0 987 902 51.68% 21.13% 27.19%+0.60 -42.1 32
2004-03-21 @ Juvenes Dogana W 2-042.0 902 987 27.19% 21.13% 51.68%-0.60 +42.1 30
2004-03-24 Folgore Falciano W 4-129.6 1040 545 80.38% 15.94% 3.69%+3.28 +4.3 39
2004-03-24 @ Pennarossa L 1-429.6 545 1040 3.69% 15.94% 80.38%-3.28 -4.3 6
2004-03-24 Juvenes Dogana L 0-529.5 750 945 17.54% 20.45% 62.01%-1.23 -39.5 16
2004-03-24 @ Tre Penne W 5-029.5 945 750 62.01% 20.45% 17.54%+1.23 +39.5 35
2004-03-24 Tre Fiori L 0-135.7 812 953 22.57% 20.88% 56.54%-0.88 -11.2 18
2004-03-24 @ Faetano W 1-035.7 953 812 56.54% 20.88% 22.57%+0.88 +11.2 35
2004-03-27 Cailungo L 1-246.1 944 956 38.56% 21.34% 40.09%-0.03 -16.5 30
2004-03-27 @ Libertas W 2-146.1 956 944 40.09% 21.34% 38.56%+0.03 +16.5 37
2004-03-27 Montevito W 1-029.3 1017 582 78.04% 16.97% 4.99%+2.89 +2.6 38
2004-03-27 @ Murata L 0-129.3 582 1017 4.99% 16.97% 78.04%-2.89 -2.6 6
2004-03-27 San Giovanni W 6-027.8 984 712 69.29% 19.43% 11.27%+1.83 +31.0 38
2004-03-27 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-627.8 712 984 11.27% 19.43% 69.29%-1.83 -31.0 21
2004-03-27 Tre Penne D 1-153.5 541 710 19.84% 20.68% 59.48%-1.06 +4.0 7
2004-03-27 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-153.5 710 541 59.48% 20.68% 19.84%+1.06 -4.0 17
2004-03-28 Domagnano L 1-240.0 801 980 18.93% 20.59% 60.47%-1.13 -9.1 18
2004-03-28 @ Faetano W 2-140.0 980 801 60.47% 20.59% 18.93%+1.13 +9.1 35
2004-03-28 Pennarossa L 0-132.0 760 1045 11.37% 19.46% 69.17%-1.82 -6.0 21
2004-03-28 @ La Fiorita W 1-032.0 1045 760 69.17% 19.46% 11.37%+1.82 +6.0 42
2004-03-30 Virtus L 2-350.2 964 1006 34.45% 21.31% 44.24%-0.23 -14.3 35
2004-03-30 @ Tre Fiori W 3-250.2 1006 964 44.24% 21.31% 34.45%+0.23 +14.3 32
2004-04-02 Domagnano L 0-326.3 630 989 7.84% 18.41% 73.75%-2.30 -11.3 11
2004-04-02 @ Cosmos W 3-026.3 989 630 73.75% 18.41% 7.84%+2.30 +11.3 38
2004-04-03 Cailungo W 3-259.7 706 972 12.44% 19.68% 67.88%-1.70 +25.9 20
2004-04-03 @ Tre Penne L 2-359.7 972 706 67.88% 19.68% 12.44%+1.70 -25.9 37
2004-04-03 Montevito W 1-033.3 792 580 64.69% 20.15% 15.17%+1.43 +7.9 21
2004-04-03 @ Faetano L 0-133.3 580 792 15.17% 20.15% 64.69%-1.43 -7.9 6
2004-04-03 La Fiorita W 3-027.8 1015 754 68.50% 19.58% 11.92%+1.75 +17.1 41
2004-04-03 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-327.8 754 1015 11.92% 19.58% 68.50%-1.75 -17.1 21
2004-04-03 Libertas L 0-425.4 545 927 6.98% 18.06% 74.96%-2.45 -13.1 7
2004-04-03 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-025.4 927 545 74.96% 18.06% 6.98%+2.45 +13.1 33
2004-04-04 Pennarossa D 1-154.2 681 1051 7.43% 18.25% 74.32%-2.37 +7.1 22
2004-04-04 @ San Giovanni D 1-154.2 1051 681 74.32% 18.25% 7.43%+2.37 -7.2 43
2004-04-04 Virtus L 1-246.6 1020 1020 40.28% 21.34% 38.37%+0.04 -17.1 38
2004-04-04 @ Murata W 2-146.6 1020 1020 38.37% 21.34% 40.28%-0.04 +17.1 35
2004-04-07 Murata L 0-425.3 618 1003 6.90% 18.02% 75.08%-2.47 -13.0 11
2004-04-07 @ Cosmos W 4-025.3 1003 618 75.08% 18.02% 6.90%+2.47 +13.0 41
2004-04-07 Tre Fiori W 2-144.0 1000 950 47.23% 21.26% 31.51%+0.37 +14.0 41
2004-04-07 @ Domagnano L 1-244.0 950 1000 31.51% 21.26% 47.23%-0.37 -14.0 35
2004-04-07 Virtus L 0-524.5 572 1037 4.59% 16.69% 78.72%-3.00 -10.4 6
2004-04-07 @ Montevito W 5-024.5 1037 572 78.72% 16.69% 4.59%+3.00 +10.4 38
2004-04-08 Cailungo L 0-329.4 737 946 16.38% 20.31% 63.31%-1.33 -23.1 21
2004-04-08 @ La Fiorita W 3-029.4 946 737 63.31% 20.31% 16.38%+1.33 +23.1 40
2004-04-08 Folgore Falciano W 4-235.9 1033 532 80.58% 15.84% 3.58%+3.32 +2.7 44
2004-04-08 @ Juvenes Dogana L 2-435.9 532 1033 3.58% 15.84% 80.58%-3.32 -2.7 7
2004-04-08 Pennarossa L 0-332.8 940 1043 26.72% 21.11% 52.17%-0.63 -35.5 33
2004-04-08 @ Libertas W 3-032.8 1043 940 52.17% 21.11% 26.72%+0.63 +35.5 46
2004-04-08 Tre Penne L 1-244.7 688 732 34.09% 21.31% 44.60%-0.25 -14.9 22
2004-04-08 @ San Giovanni W 2-144.7 732 688 44.60% 21.31% 34.09%+0.25 +14.9 23

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2004-04-14 Cailungo W 2-144.4 1016 970 45.80% 21.29% 32.91%+0.30 +14.5 1-0
2004-04-14 @ Murata L 1-244.4 970 1016 32.91% 21.29% 45.80%-0.30 -14.5 0-1
2004-04-14 Virtus L 1-343.6 1035 1048 37.56% 21.34% 41.10%-0.08 -28.0 0-1
2004-04-14 @ Juvenes Dogana W 3-143.6 1048 1035 41.10% 21.34% 37.56%+0.08 +28.0 1-0
2004-04-17 Murata W 5-348.2 1079 1030 46.08% 21.28% 32.63%+0.32 +21.1 1-0
2004-04-17 @ Pennarossa L 3-548.2 1030 1079 32.63% 21.28% 46.08%-0.32 -21.1 1-1
2004-04-17 Virtus W 2-148.9 1014 1076 30.96% 21.25% 47.79%-0.40 +19.7 1-0
2004-04-17 @ Domagnano L 1-248.9 1076 1014 47.79% 21.25% 30.96%+0.40 -19.7 1-1
2004-04-21 Murata L 1-344.1 1007 1009 39.03% 21.35% 39.63%-0.01 -28.8 0-2
2004-04-21 @ Juvenes Dogana W 3-144.1 1009 1007 39.63% 21.35% 39.03%+0.01 +28.8 2-1
2004-04-21 Virtus W 4-252.3 955 1056 26.18% 21.08% 52.74%-0.66 +33.3 1-1
2004-04-21 @ Cailungo L 2-452.3 1056 955 52.74% 21.08% 26.18%+0.66 -33.3 1-2
2004-04-23 Domagnano L 1-444.6 1100 1034 48.41% 21.23% 30.36%+0.43 -48.7 1-1
2004-04-23 @ Pennarossa W 4-144.6 1034 1100 30.36% 21.23% 48.41%-0.43 +48.7 2-0
2004-04-26 Cailungo L 1-346.2 1038 988 46.27% 21.28% 32.45%+0.33 -33.1 2-2
2004-04-26 @ Murata W 3-146.2 988 1038 32.45% 21.28% 46.27%-0.33 +33.1 2-1
2004-04-30 Cailungo W 3-035.4 1051 1021 43.55% 21.32% 35.13%+0.20 +44.4 2-1
2004-04-30 @ Pennarossa L 0-335.4 1021 1051 35.13% 21.32% 43.55%-0.20 -44.4 2-2
2004-05-07 Pennarossa L 2-447.8 1083 1096 37.45% 21.34% 41.21%-0.09 -24.9 2-1
2004-05-07 @ Domagnano W 4-247.8 1096 1083 41.21% 21.34% 37.45%+0.09 +25.0 3-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2004-04-03 12.44% @ Tre Penne 706 3 Cailungo 972 2
2 2004-03-13 16.79% @ Cosmos 662 1 Faetano 866 0
3 2003-11-12 16.96% @ Faetano 814 1 Cailungo 1016 0
4 2003-10-26 17.04% Tre Penne 830 3 @ Domagnano 1017 1
5 2003-11-15 17.69% @ Cosmos 652 2 Tre Penne 845 1
6 2003-11-23 18.01% @ Tre Penne 827 2 Murata 1017 1
7 2003-09-13 20.17% La Fiorita 694 3 @ Tre Penne 846 2
8 2003-12-06 22.08% Cosmos 660 1 @ San Giovanni 793 0
9 2003-10-03 22.61% Juvenes Dogana 807 2 @ Libertas 934 1
10 2004-03-16 23.87% @ Montevito 560 3 Cosmos 689 1
11 2004-04-21 * 26.18% @ Cailungo 955 4 Virtus 1056 2
12 2003-12-07 26.19% Virtus 912 2 @ Cailungo 1006 0
13 2004-03-21 27.19% Libertas 902 2 @ Juvenes Dogana 987 0
14 2003-11-22 27.83% Domagnano 947 2 @ Cailungo 1027 1
15 2003-10-25 28.64% Folgore Falciano 638 5 @ Cosmos 711 2
16 2004-03-16 28.70% @ La Fiorita 697 1 Tre Penne 783 0
17 2004-03-14 28.79% Domagnano 944 3 @ Virtus 1016 2
18 2003-10-18 29.33% San Giovanni 766 3 @ Faetano 834 2
19 2004-04-23 * 30.36% Domagnano 1034 4 @ Pennarossa 1100 1
20 2004-04-17 * 30.96% @ Domagnano 1014 2 Virtus 1076 1
21 2003-10-17 31.26% Tre Fiori 860 2 @ Libertas 912 1
22 2003-11-22 31.45% @ Tre Fiori 927 2 Pennarossa 991 1
23 2003-11-05 31.82% @ Juvenes Dogana 880 2 Virtus 942 0
24 2003-09-13 32.08% Virtus 844 6 @ Faetano 890 0
25 2003-10-18 32.32% @ Murata 970 1 Cailungo 1028 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-09-13 106.97 Virtus 6 844 32.08% @ Faetano 0 890 46.64% 21.27%
2 2003-12-13 54.24 @ Virtus 5 955 53.85% Tre Penne 0 851 25.12% 21.03%
3 2003-10-11 53.87 @ Tre Penne 3 776 34.07% San Giovanni 0 820 44.62% 21.31%
4 2004-04-23 * 48.71 Domagnano 4 1034 30.36% @ Pennarossa 1 1100 48.41% 21.23%
5 2003-10-05 47.48 Tre Fiori 3 805 40.49% @ Cosmos 0 791 38.16% 21.34%
6 2004-04-30 * 44.45 @ Pennarossa 3 1051 43.55% Cailungo 0 1021 35.13% 21.32%
7 2004-03-20 44.04 @ Cailungo 5 912 59.56% San Giovanni 0 756 19.77% 20.67%
8 2003-10-26 43.72 Tre Penne 3 830 17.04% @ Domagnano 1 1017 62.57% 20.39%
9 2003-10-25 43.54 Folgore Falciano 5 638 28.64% @ Cosmos 2 711 50.18% 21.18%
10 2003-12-07 42.92 Virtus 2 912 26.19% @ Cailungo 0 1006 52.73% 21.08%
11 2003-09-27 42.21 @ Cailungo 7 979 66.80% Folgore Falciano 0 740 13.35% 19.86%
12 2003-12-14 42.16 Faetano 5 824 60.59% @ Folgore Falciano 0 644 18.83% 20.58%
13 2004-03-21 42.15 Libertas 2 902 27.19% @ Juvenes Dogana 0 987 51.68% 21.13%
14 2004-03-19 41.70 La Fiorita 4 718 55.46% @ Folgore Falciano 0 587 23.59% 20.95%
15 2004-03-24 39.55 Juvenes Dogana 5 945 62.01% @ Tre Penne 0 750 17.54% 20.45%
16 2003-09-20 39.01 @ Libertas 3 877 48.86% Folgore Falciano 0 814 29.92% 21.22%
17 2004-03-16 38.76 @ Montevito 3 560 23.87% Cosmos 1 689 55.17% 20.96%
18 2003-11-05 38.70 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 880 31.82% Virtus 0 942 46.91% 21.27%
19 2003-12-13 37.13 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 936 34.02% Domagnano 0 980 44.67% 21.31%
20 2004-04-08 35.50 Pennarossa 3 1043 52.17% @ Libertas 0 940 26.72% 21.11%
21 2003-09-23 34.76 San Giovanni 2 768 37.42% @ Folgore Falciano 0 775 41.24% 21.34%
22 2003-09-27 34.60 @ Faetano 2 807 37.67% Cosmos 0 825 40.99% 21.34%
23 2004-04-21 * 33.26 @ Cailungo 4 955 26.18% Virtus 2 1056 52.74% 21.08%
24 2004-04-26 * 33.12 Cailungo 3 988 32.45% @ Murata 1 1038 46.27% 21.28%
25 2004-03-27 31.00 @ Juvenes Dogana 6 984 69.29% San Giovanni 0 712 11.27% 19.43%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2003-11-11 63.5 @ Domagnano 3 944 60.50% San Giovanni 3 778 18.91% 20.59%
2 2003-09-24 63.3 @ Tre Fiori 3 780 36.46% Faetano 3 807 42.20% 21.33%
3 2004-03-13 60.2 @ Montevito 2 554 6.38% Tre Fiori 2 955 75.85% 17.77%
4 2003-12-06 59.9 @ Murata 2 992 72.30% La Fiorita 2 672 8.91% 18.79%
5 2004-04-03 59.7 @ Tre Penne 3 706 12.44% Cailungo 2 972 67.88% 19.68%
6 2003-11-04 59.3 @ La Fiorita 2 658 20.79% Faetano 2 817 58.45% 20.75%
7 2003-09-28 59.1 @ Domagnano 2 987 44.14% Virtus 2 960 34.54% 21.31%
8 2003-10-03 59.1 @ La Fiorita 2 683 38.11% Folgore Falciano 2 698 40.55% 21.34%
9 2003-10-08 59.1 @ San Giovanni 2 820 38.84% Juvenes Dogana 2 830 39.82% 21.34%
10 2003-10-11 59.1 @ Pennarossa 2 933 43.29% Libertas 2 912 35.39% 21.32%
11 2003-12-06 59.1 @ Montevito 2 566 29.54% Folgore Falciano 2 645 49.25% 21.21%
12 2004-03-06 59.1 @ Domagnano 2 943 34.57% Murata 2 984 44.11% 21.32%
13 2003-09-13 57.4 La Fiorita 3 694 20.17% @ Tre Penne 2 846 59.12% 20.70%
14 2004-03-14 54.8 Domagnano 3 944 28.79% @ Virtus 2 1016 50.02% 21.18%
15 2003-10-18 54.6 San Giovanni 3 766 29.33% @ Faetano 2 834 49.47% 21.20%
16 2004-04-04 54.2 @ San Giovanni 1 681 7.43% Pennarossa 1 1051 74.32% 18.25%
17 2003-10-19 53.9 @ La Fiorita 1 665 10.51% Virtus 1 965 70.24% 19.25%
18 2003-10-05 53.6 @ San Giovanni 1 815 16.70% Cailungo 1 1021 62.95% 20.35%
19 2004-03-27 53.5 @ Folgore Falciano 1 541 19.84% Tre Penne 1 710 59.48% 20.68%
20 2003-09-13 53.4 @ Cosmos 1 851 57.12% Montevito 1 719 22.03% 20.85%
21 2003-09-14 53.4 @ Folgore Falciano 1 811 23.75% Pennarossa 1 941 55.29% 20.96%
22 2003-10-08 53.4 @ Virtus 1 960 54.31% Tre Fiori 1 853 24.69% 21.01%
23 2003-11-22 53.4 @ San Giovanni 1 790 24.22% Virtus 1 915 54.80% 20.98%
24 2003-09-13 53.3 @ San Giovanni 1 775 26.58% Libertas 1 879 52.32% 21.10%
25 2003-09-27 53.3 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 805 25.59% Pennarossa 1 917 53.35% 21.06%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-04-07 24.5 Virtus 5 1037 78.72% @ Montevito 0 572 4.59% 16.69%
2 2004-04-07 25.3 Murata 4 1003 75.08% @ Cosmos 0 618 6.90% 18.02%
3 2004-04-03 25.4 Libertas 4 927 74.96% @ Folgore Falciano 0 545 6.98% 18.06%
4 2004-03-20 25.7 @ Domagnano 5 963 74.74% Montevito 0 599 7.13% 18.13%
5 2003-10-18 25.9 Domagnano 4 1002 73.13% @ Folgore Falciano 0 654 8.29% 18.58%
6 2004-04-02 26.3 Domagnano 3 989 73.75% @ Cosmos 0 630 7.84% 18.41%
7 2003-10-11 26.4 @ Cailungo 3 1016 73.43% La Fiorita 0 676 8.07% 18.50%
8 2004-03-21 26.9 @ Tre Fiori 4 933 69.98% Cosmos 0 650 10.72% 19.30%
9 2003-12-13 27.6 Pennarossa 3 971 69.32% @ Cosmos 0 685 11.25% 19.43%
10 2003-10-07 27.8 Murata 5 926 67.67% @ Montevito 0 663 12.61% 19.72%
11 2004-03-27 27.8 @ Juvenes Dogana 6 984 69.29% San Giovanni 0 712 11.27% 19.43%
12 2004-04-03 27.8 @ Juvenes Dogana 3 1015 68.50% La Fiorita 0 754 11.92% 19.58%
13 2003-11-18 28.6 Tre Fiori 3 907 65.98% @ Folgore Falciano 0 665 14.04% 19.97%
14 2003-10-04 28.8 Domagnano 2 986 71.10% @ Montevito 0 673 9.83% 19.07%
15 2003-09-27 29.1 @ Cailungo 7 979 66.80% Folgore Falciano 0 740 13.35% 19.86%
16 2004-03-27 29.3 @ Murata 1 1017 78.04% Montevito 0 582 4.99% 16.97%
17 2004-03-20 29.4 @ Pennarossa 2 1029 68.94% Tre Penne 0 761 11.56% 19.50%
18 2004-04-08 29.4 Cailungo 3 946 63.31% @ La Fiorita 0 737 16.38% 20.31%
19 2004-03-24 29.5 Juvenes Dogana 5 945 62.01% @ Tre Penne 0 750 17.54% 20.45%
20 2004-03-24 29.6 @ Pennarossa 4 1040 80.38% Folgore Falciano 1 545 3.69% 15.94%
21 2003-11-11 29.8 Juvenes Dogana 6 919 70.63% @ Montevito 1 613 10.20% 19.17%
22 2003-12-14 29.9 Faetano 5 824 60.59% @ Folgore Falciano 0 644 18.83% 20.58%
23 2004-03-20 30.2 @ Cailungo 5 912 59.56% San Giovanni 0 756 19.77% 20.67%
24 2003-11-15 30.6 @ Murata 1 1012 73.61% Folgore Falciano 0 669 7.94% 18.45%
25 2003-10-12 30.7 @ Murata 2 955 64.71% Cosmos 0 743 15.15% 20.14%