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2018-19 Campionato Sammarinese Season

148 games · 8 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

18 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Murata

6.38 points above expected

11 points · 4.62 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Virtus

5.80 points below expected

1 points · 6.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 7 6 0 1 18 21 8 +13 13.74 +4.26
2 La Fiorita 6 5 1 0 16 14 4 +10 13.55 +2.45
3 Folgore Falciano 7 4 2 1 14 15 5 +10 14.26 -0.26
4 Domagnano 6 4 1 1 13 8 3 +5 8.90 +4.10
5 Pennarossa 7 4 0 3 12 9 11 -2 8.55 +3.45
6 Murata 7 3 2 2 11 11 12 -1 4.62 +6.38
7 Tre Penne 7 3 1 3 10 19 6 +13 14.54 -4.54
8 Fiorentino 6 2 4 0 10 9 6 +3 5.76 +4.24
9 Juvenes Dogana 7 3 1 3 10 12 11 +1 10.68 -0.68
10 Libertas 6 2 2 2 8 9 11 -2 10.51 -2.51
11 Cailungo 6 2 0 4 6 7 9 -2 6.24 -0.24
12 Cosmos 6 1 1 4 4 9 14 -5 8.95 -4.95
13 San Giovanni 7 0 3 4 3 2 16 -14 4.99 -1.99
14 Faetano 6 0 1 5 1 2 11 -9 4.59 -3.59
15 Virtus 7 0 1 6 1 4 24 -20 6.80 -5.80
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 La Fiorita 14 12 1 1 37 48 10 +38 30.05 +6.95
2 Tre Penne 12 11 1 0 34 34 6 +28 — —
3 Juvenes Dogana 13 7 4 2 25 29 14 +15 — —
4 Tre Fiori 14 6 4 4 22 32 23 +9 24.18 -2.18
5 Folgore Falciano 14 6 4 4 22 23 20 +3 24.71 -2.71
6 Cosmos 13 5 3 5 18 14 17 -3 — —
7 Faetano 12 5 2 5 17 23 16 +7 — —
8 Cailungo 12 4 5 3 17 18 21 -3 — —
9 Libertas 14 3 6 5 15 23 23 0 20.67 -5.67
10 Fiorentino 14 3 6 5 15 20 24 -4 14.40 +0.60
11 Murata 14 4 3 7 15 12 30 -18 11.05 +3.95
12 Pennarossa 14 4 2 8 14 13 27 -14 10.96 +3.04
13 Domagnano 14 3 4 7 13 21 35 -14 20.30 -7.30
14 San Giovanni 12 2 2 8 8 6 22 -16 — —
15 Virtus 12 0 1 11 1 9 37 -28 — —

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Murata 11 4.62 +6.38
2 Tre Fiori 18 13.74 +4.26
3 Fiorentino 10 5.76 +4.24
4 Domagnano 13 8.90 +4.10
5 Pennarossa 12 8.55 +3.45

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Virtus 1 6.80 -5.80
2 Cosmos 4 8.95 -4.95
3 Tre Penne 10 14.54 -4.54
4 Faetano 1 4.59 -3.59
5 Libertas 8 10.51 -2.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pennarossa 4 Sep 23 – Oct 21 1 in 69
2 Murata 1 Oct 7 – Oct 7 1 in 46
3 Tre Fiori 6 Sep 21 – Nov 4 1 in 31
4 Cailungo 2 Oct 20 – Oct 27 1 in 14
5 Domagnano 2 Sep 23 – Sep 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Penne 2 Oct 7 – Oct 21 1 in 309
2 Cosmos 4 Oct 20 – Nov 11 1 in 119
3 Faetano 5 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 14
4 Tre Fiori 1 Nov 10 – Nov 10 1 in 14
5 Virtus 3 Sep 22 – Oct 6 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Murata 5 Oct 7 – Nov 10 1 in 190
2 Fiorentino 6 Sep 22 – Nov 11 1 in 110
3 San Giovanni 3 Oct 21 – Nov 3 1 in 17
4 Pennarossa 4 Sep 23 – Oct 21 1 in 9
5 Tre Fiori 6 Sep 21 – Nov 4 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tre Penne 3 Sep 29 – Oct 21 1 in 26
2 Cosmos 4 Oct 20 – Nov 11 1 in 12
3 Virtus 7 Sep 22 – Nov 10 1 in 9
4 Folgore Falciano 2 Oct 20 – Oct 27 1 in 7
5 Juvenes Dogana 3 Oct 7 – Oct 27 1 in 5

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
La Fiorita 1292 53 +43 13 11.7 +1.3
Tre Penne 1155 44 +20 13 12.2 +0.8
Tre Fiori 1021 40 -9 7 8.3 -1.3
Folgore Falciano 1053 36 -10 10 10.7 -0.7
Juvenes Dogana 946 35 +39 11 9.4 +1.6
Domagnano 830 26 +21 7 5.0 +2.0
Murata 796 26 +11 5 3.5 +1.5
Pennarossa 752 26 -57 4 5.8 -1.8
Fiorentino 828 25 +24 4 3.8 +0.2
Cailungo 769 23 +44 11 7.6 +3.4
Libertas 930 23 -23 5 7.1 -2.1
Cosmos 781 22 +0 7 7.1 -0.1
Faetano 761 18 +71 7 6.5 +0.5
San Giovanni 530 11 -51 3 3.1 -0.1
Virtus 436 2 -67 0 2.1 -2.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FIO FF JD LF LIB MUR PEN SG TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
1-0-0
0.72
0-0-1
1.03
1-0-0
1.48
0-0-1
1.69
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.37
0-0-1
0.51
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Cosmos
0-0-1
2.07
 —
0-0-1
1.60
1-0-0
1.89
0-0-1
1.85
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.59
0-1-0
1.34
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Domagnano
1-0-0
1.74
1-0-0
1.18
 —
1-0-0
2.05
0-1-0
2.02
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.58
1-0-0
1.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Faetano
0-0-1
1.29
0-0-1
0.89
0-0-1
0.74
 —
0-1-0
0.65
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.50
0-0-1
0.43
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Fiorentino
1-0-0
1.09
1-0-0
0.93
0-1-0
0.77
0-1-0
2.14
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.50
0-1-0
0.71
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Folgore Falciano
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
2.15
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.44
1-0-0
2.21
0-1-0
2.52
0-0-1
1.37
0-1-0
1.38
1-0-0
2.46
Juvenes Dogana
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.64
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
2.33
1-0-0
1.80
1-0-0
2.23
0-0-1
0.91
0-0-1
0.65
1-0-0
2.30
La Fiorita
1-0-0
2.44
1-0-0
2.20
1-0-0
2.21
1-0-0
2.29
0-1-0
2.30
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
1-0-0
2.01
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Libertas
1-0-0
2.29
0-1-0
1.43
0-0-1
1.78
1-0-0
2.37
0-1-0
2.07
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.78
 —
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
Murata
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.37
0-1-0
0.47
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-0-1
0.68
0-1-0
1.47
1-0-0
0.41
1-0-0
0.22
1-0-0
1.36
Pennarossa
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.58
0-0-1
0.98
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
2.11
 —
1-0-0
1.40
0-0-1
0.74
1-0-0
0.66
1-0-0
1.40
San Giovanni
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
0.30
0-0-1
0.56
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.30
0-0-1
1.37
 —
0-0-1
0.47
0-0-1
0.30
0-1-0
0.95
Tre Fiori
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.41
1-0-0
1.87
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
2.39
1-0-0
2.04
1-0-0
2.33
 —
1-0-0
1.66
1-0-0
2.32
Tre Penne
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-0
1.40
1-0-0
2.14
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
2.63
0-0-1
2.13
1-0-0
2.53
0-0-1
1.12
 —
1-0-0
2.09
Virtus
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
0.36
0-0-1
0.50
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-0
0.00
0-0-1
1.41
0-0-1
1.37
0-1-0
1.83
0-0-1
0.48
0-0-1
0.70
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.65 +7.6
Allowed 0.53 -7.1
Differential 0.76 +4.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.08%7.43%5.41%4.05%2.03%2.03%27.03%
17.43%7.43%4.39%5.07%1.35%2.03%27.70%
25.41%4.39%7.43%2.70%0.68%1.01%21.62%
34.05%5.07%2.70%2.03%0.34%—14.19%
42.03%1.35%0.68%0.34%——4.39%
5+2.03%2.03%1.01%———5.07%
Total27.03%27.70%21.62%14.19%4.39%5.07%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.61 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.39
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 9 9 +9
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 148

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
15.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
2—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%22.22%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.67 -0.28
SD 1.04 1.24 1.41
CV 0.75 0.74 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%—15.79%—10.53%—31.58%
115.79%10.53%5.26%15.79%——47.37%
25.26%—————5.26%
3———5.26%——5.26%
45.26%—————5.26%
5+—5.26%————5.26%
Total31.58%15.79%21.05%21.05%10.53%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.63 -0.42
SD 1.40 1.42 2.27
CV 1.15 0.87 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%10.00%—5.00%5.00%35.00%
110.00%—5.00%———15.00%
2—5.00%15.00%—5.00%—25.00%
3—10.00%5.00%5.00%——20.00%
4———5.00%——5.00%
5+———————
Total15.00%25.00%35.00%10.00%10.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.90 -0.45
SD 1.32 1.37 1.85
CV 0.91 0.72 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%5.56%—5.56%—33.33%
15.56%11.11%16.67%5.56%——38.89%
2——5.56%———5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total11.11%44.44%33.33%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.50 -0.11
SD 1.61 0.99 2.14
CV 1.16 0.66 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%—5.00%5.00%——15.00%
15.00%20.00%5.00%———30.00%
220.00%—20.00%5.00%—5.00%50.00%
3———5.00%——5.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.00%20.00%30.00%15.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.50 -0.05
SD 0.83 1.36 1.47
CV 0.57 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.05%—4.76%———23.81%
19.52%4.76%9.52%4.76%——28.57%
2—4.76%4.76%———9.52%
39.52%4.76%14.29%—4.76%—33.33%
4———————
5+—4.76%————4.76%
Total38.10%19.05%33.33%4.76%4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.19 +0.62
SD 1.69 1.17 1.83
CV 0.93 0.98 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%—5.00%——15.00%
15.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
210.00%5.00%15.00%———30.00%
35.00%10.00%————15.00%
4—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total25.00%35.00%30.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.25 +0.80
SD 1.67 0.97 2.04
CV 0.81 0.77 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%————5.00%
110.00%5.00%————15.00%
210.00%15.00%5.00%———30.00%
310.00%—————10.00%
410.00%10.00%5.00%———25.00%
5+5.00%5.00%5.00%———15.00%
Total45.00%40.00%15.00%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.10 0.70 +2.40
SD 2.15 0.73 2.26
CV 0.69 1.05 —
Max 9 2 +9
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
110.00%10.00%5.00%—5.00%—30.00%
2——15.00%5.00%——20.00%
35.00%10.00%—15.00%——30.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.00%30.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.60 1.70 -0.10
SD 1.14 1.13 1.45
CV 0.71 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%—9.52%9.52%—4.76%38.10%
114.29%4.76%—4.76%—9.52%33.33%
2—4.76%4.76%4.76%——14.29%
34.76%4.76%————9.52%
44.76%—————4.76%
5+———————
Total38.10%14.29%14.29%19.05%—14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.10 2.00 -0.90
SD 1.18 2.47 3.00
CV 1.08 1.23 —
Max 4 9 +4
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.52%4.76%19.05%——33.33%
19.52%9.52%—14.29%—4.76%38.10%
214.29%4.76%————19.05%
3—4.76%4.76%———9.52%
4———————
5+———————
Total23.81%28.57%9.52%33.33%—4.76%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 1.81 -0.76
SD 0.97 1.69 2.21
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.79%21.05%5.26%5.26%—10.53%57.89%
110.53%10.53%—5.26%5.26%10.53%42.11%
2———————
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total26.32%31.58%5.26%10.53%5.26%21.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.42 2.00 -1.58
SD 0.51 1.94 1.92
CV 1.20 0.97 —
Max 1 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———9.52%——9.52%
1———4.76%4.76%—9.52%
29.52%4.76%19.05%4.76%——38.10%
39.52%14.29%————23.81%
4———————
5+9.52%4.76%4.76%———19.05%
Total28.57%23.81%23.81%19.05%4.76%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.52 1.48 +1.05
SD 1.50 1.25 2.48
CV 0.60 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 21

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%5.26%————15.79%
1——5.26%———5.26%
210.53%10.53%—5.26%——26.32%
315.79%5.26%————21.05%
410.53%5.26%————15.79%
5+10.53%—5.26%———15.79%
Total57.89%26.32%10.53%5.26%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.79 0.63 +2.16
SD 1.99 0.90 2.29
CV 0.71 1.42 —
Max 8 3 +8
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 19

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%15.79%10.53%—10.53%10.53%52.63%
1—5.26%—10.53%5.26%5.26%26.32%
2———10.53%5.26%5.26%21.05%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.26%21.05%10.53%21.05%21.05%21.05%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.68 3.21 -2.53
SD 0.82 2.10 2.09
CV 1.20 0.65 —
Max 2 8 +0
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 19

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
La Fiorita 1302 16 13.55 +2.45 85.0% 6 8 12 14 16 18 18
Tre Penne 1241 10 14.54 -4.54 6.0% 5 10 13 14 16 18 21
Folgore Falciano 1055 14 14.26 -0.26 55.0% 4 9 12 14 16 19 21
Tre Fiori 1045 18 13.74 +4.26 95.0% 6 8 12 14 16 18 21
Juvenes Dogana 972 10 10.68 -0.68 41.0% 3 5 9 11 12 15 17
Libertas 936 8 10.51 -2.51 24.0% 3 5 9 10 13 15 18
Domagnano 830 13 8.90 +4.10 96.0% 3 4 7 9 10 13 18
Cosmos 781 4 8.95 -4.95 6.0% 2 4 7 9 11 13 16
Cailungo 769 6 6.24 -0.24 57.0% 0 1 4 6 9 12 13
Murata 761 11 4.62 +6.38 99.0% 0 1 3 4 7 8 12
Faetano 761 1 4.59 -3.59 8.0% 0 1 3 4 6 9 13
Pennarossa 752 12 8.55 +3.45 88.0% 2 3 6 8 11 14 19
Fiorentino 707 10 5.76 +4.24 96.0% 1 2 4 5 7 10 14
San Giovanni 530 3 4.99 -1.99 29.0% 0 1 3 5 7 10 11
Virtus 436 1 6.80 -5.80 2.0% 1 2 5 6 9 11 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.51%
Strong Edge
45.27%22.97%31.76%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 47.24 Elo pts.
179 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.3
Open
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
25%
Tre Fiori, 4th of 15
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.29/gm
Runaway
00.300.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.5 * Lucky: 3.5 to 4.66 * Wild Swing: 4.66 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.8 * Close: 1.8 to 2.7 * Off: 2.7 to 3.6 * Way Off: 3.6 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 15 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 15 * As Expected: 15 to 24 * Several Outliers: 24 to 33 * Many Outliers: 33 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.78 points
Lucky
02.927
Average Finish Error
Expected
3.33
Off
02.255
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.67%
99.00%
Murata
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.33%
2.00%
Virtus
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 15
Minimal Outliers
01.57

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.32
Lopsided
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 178.68
1.49
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
81%
Clear Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.522
Matchup Imbalance
0.54
Lopsided
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.87
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.39
Some Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Chalky
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Solid Favorites
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.89
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.87
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.063
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Quarterfinals

La Fiorita 6
Juvenes Dogana 0

Leg 1: La Fiorita 1-0 Juvenes Dogana

Leg 2: Juvenes Dogana 0-5 La Fiorita

Libertas 5
Murata 0

Leg 1: Libertas 1-0 Murata

Leg 2: Murata 0-4 Libertas

Tre Fiori 3
Fiorentino 1

Leg 1: Tre Fiori 2-1 Fiorentino

Leg 2: Fiorentino 0-1 Tre Fiori

Tre Penne 2
Folgore Falciano 1

Leg 1: Tre Penne 1-0 Folgore Falciano

Leg 2: Folgore Falciano 1-1 Tre Penne

Folgore Falciano 4
Fiorentino 0
Juvenes Dogana 4
Murata 0
Murata 3
Fiorentino 0
Juvenes Dogana 1
Folgore Falciano 0

Semifinals

La Fiorita 5
Libertas 0

Leg 1: La Fiorita 1-0 Libertas

Leg 2: Libertas 0-4 La Fiorita

Tre Penne 3
Tre Fiori 1

Leg 1: Tre Fiori 0-1 Tre Penne

Leg 2: Tre Penne 2-1 Tre Fiori

Tre Fiori 3
Libertas 1

Finals

Tre Penne 3
La Fiorita 1

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Tre Fiori25.00%31.00%21.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%—
La Fiorita65.00%22.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%——
Folgore Falciano29.00%29.00%23.00%8.00%8.00%2.00%1.00%—
Domagnano9.00%16.00%34.00%17.00%14.00%7.00%3.00%—
Pennarossa5.00%3.00%8.00%15.00%31.00%16.00%15.00%7.00%
Murata1.00%——2.00%12.00%25.00%24.00%36.00%
Tre Penne38.00%27.00%22.00%10.00%2.00%——1.00%
Fiorentino1.00%6.00%7.00%15.00%19.00%36.00%16.00%—
Juvenes Dogana2.00%8.00%23.00%37.00%16.00%8.00%5.00%1.00%
Libertas18.00%23.00%29.00%14.00%8.00%7.00%1.00%—
Cailungo1.00%9.00%12.00%13.00%22.00%26.00%17.00%—
Cosmos6.00%23.00%10.00%28.00%24.00%6.00%3.00%—
San Giovanni———3.00%9.00%26.00%25.00%37.00%
Faetano—1.00%3.00%8.00%11.00%17.00%60.00%—
Virtus—2.00%3.00%13.00%16.00%19.00%29.00%18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Lost promotion playoff Same level
Cailungo 24.00% 76.00%
Cosmos 40.00% 60.00%
Domagnano 13.00% 87.00%
Faetano 11.00% 89.00%
Fiorentino 15.00% 85.00%
Folgore Falciano 5.00% 95.00%
Juvenes Dogana 28.00% 72.00%
La Fiorita 2.00% 98.00%
Libertas 11.00% 89.00%
Murata — 100%
Pennarossa 19.00% 81.00%
San Giovanni 3.00% 97.00%
Tre Fiori 7.00% 93.00%
Tre Penne 5.00% 95.00%
Virtus 17.00% 83.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Lost promotion playoff Same level
Cailungo — 100%
Cosmos — 100%
Domagnano 13.93% 86.07%
Faetano — 100%
Fiorentino 40.40% 59.60%
Folgore Falciano 4.86% 95.14%
Juvenes Dogana — 100%
La Fiorita 1.00% 99.00%
Libertas 12.73% 87.27%
Murata 60.84% 39.16%
Pennarossa 60.70% 39.30%
San Giovanni — 100%
Tre Fiori 5.54% 94.46%
Tre Penne — 100%
Virtus — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-09-21 Juvenes Dogana W 3-140.1 962 884 55.10% 21.97% 22.93%+0.70 +22.7 3
2018-09-21 @ Tre Fiori L 1-340.1 884 962 22.93% 21.97% 55.10%-0.70 -22.7 0
2018-09-22 Fiorentino L 0-145.3 765 739 49.01% 22.22% 28.77%+0.41 -25.8 0
2018-09-22 @ Cailungo W 1-045.3 739 765 28.77% 22.22% 49.01%-0.41 +25.8 3
2018-09-22 La Fiorita L 0-133.0 762 1109 9.99% 20.28% 69.72%-1.68 -6.5 0
2018-09-22 @ Faetano W 1-033.0 1109 762 69.72% 20.28% 9.99%+1.68 +6.5 3
2018-09-22 Tre Penne L 0-830.5 789 1039 16.20% 21.39% 62.41%-1.13 -70.4 0
2018-09-22 @ Virtus W 8-030.5 1039 789 62.41% 21.39% 16.20%+1.13 +70.4 3
2018-09-23 Folgore Falciano L 1-728.3 597 1041 6.14% 18.89% 74.97%-2.21 -17.2 0
2018-09-23 @ Murata W 7-128.3 1041 597 74.97% 18.89% 6.14%+2.21 +17.2 3
2018-09-23 Libertas W 1-046.2 865 1013 25.96% 22.12% 51.92%-0.56 +27.2 3
2018-09-23 @ Domagnano L 0-146.2 1013 865 51.92% 22.12% 25.96%+0.56 -27.2 0
2018-09-23 Pennarossa L 0-142.1 668 720 38.30% 22.36% 39.34%-0.03 -21.1 0
2018-09-23 @ San Giovanni W 1-042.1 720 668 39.34% 22.36% 38.30%+0.03 +21.1 3
2018-09-28 Murata W 2-032.8 741 580 63.30% 21.29% 15.41%+1.17 +18.4 6
2018-09-28 @ Pennarossa L 0-232.8 580 741 15.41% 21.29% 63.30%-1.17 -18.4 0
2018-09-29 Libertas D 3-362.0 926 986 37.31% 22.36% 40.33%-0.07 +0.2 1
2018-09-29 @ Cosmos D 3-362.0 986 926 40.33% 22.36% 37.31%+0.07 -0.2 1
2018-09-29 Tre Penne D 0-049.3 1058 1109 38.54% 22.36% 39.10%-0.02 +0.1 4
2018-09-29 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-049.3 1109 1058 39.10% 22.36% 38.54%+0.02 -0.1 4
2018-09-29 Virtus W 5-236.4 984 719 70.72% 20.07% 9.22%+1.75 +12.0 6
2018-09-29 @ Tre Fiori L 2-536.4 719 984 9.22% 20.07% 70.72%-1.75 -12.0 0
2018-09-30 Faetano W 1-035.6 892 756 61.11% 21.52% 17.37%+1.03 +10.9 6
2018-09-30 @ Domagnano L 0-135.6 756 892 17.37% 21.52% 61.11%-1.03 -10.9 0
2018-09-30 La Fiorita D 2-258.6 765 1116 9.80% 20.23% 69.96%-1.70 +5.8 4
2018-09-30 @ Fiorentino D 2-258.6 1116 765 69.96% 20.23% 9.80%+1.70 -5.8 4
2018-09-30 San Giovanni W 4-134.4 862 647 67.45% 20.71% 11.84%+1.47 +17.7 3
2018-09-30 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-434.4 647 862 11.84% 20.71% 67.45%-1.47 -17.6 0
2018-10-05 Domagnano W 1-033.9 1110 903 66.86% 20.81% 12.33%+1.42 +7.9 7
2018-10-05 @ La Fiorita L 0-133.9 903 1110 12.33% 20.81% 66.86%-1.42 -8.0 6
2018-10-06 Cailungo W 1-033.1 985 739 69.55% 20.32% 10.13%+1.64 +6.6 4
2018-10-06 @ Libertas L 0-133.1 739 985 10.13% 20.32% 69.55%-1.64 -6.6 0
2018-10-06 Cosmos L 0-432.2 745 926 22.30% 21.93% 55.76%-0.75 -48.5 0
2018-10-06 @ Faetano W 4-032.2 926 745 55.76% 21.93% 22.30%+0.75 +48.5 4
2018-10-06 Pennarossa L 0-239.9 707 760 38.27% 22.36% 39.37%-0.03 -39.8 0
2018-10-06 @ Virtus W 2-039.9 760 707 39.37% 22.36% 38.27%+0.03 +39.7 9
2018-10-07 Juvenes Dogana W 2-139.1 1058 879 64.72% 21.12% 14.16%+1.26 +8.5 7
2018-10-07 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-239.1 879 1058 14.16% 21.12% 64.72%-1.26 -8.5 3
2018-10-07 Murata L 0-153.3 1109 561 82.41% 15.40% 2.19%+3.32 -41.3 4
2018-10-07 @ Tre Penne W 1-053.3 561 1109 2.19% 15.40% 82.41%-3.32 +41.3 3
2018-10-07 Tre Fiori L 0-527.2 629 996 9.03% 20.01% 70.95%-1.79 -25.9 0
2018-10-07 @ San Giovanni W 5-027.2 996 629 70.95% 20.01% 9.03%+1.79 +25.9 9
2018-10-20 Cosmos W 2-153.5 732 975 16.76% 21.46% 61.79%-1.09 +30.2 3
2018-10-20 @ Cailungo L 1-253.5 975 732 61.79% 21.46% 16.76%+1.09 -30.2 4
2018-10-20 Fiorentino D 0-049.5 895 771 59.99% 21.63% 18.39%+0.96 -5.7 7
2018-10-20 @ Domagnano D 0-049.5 771 895 18.39% 21.63% 59.99%-0.96 +5.7 5
2018-10-20 Folgore Falciano W 2-039.9 1022 1067 39.48% 22.36% 38.16%+0.02 +39.6 12
2018-10-20 @ Tre Fiori L 0-239.9 1067 1022 38.16% 22.36% 39.48%-0.02 -39.7 7
2018-10-20 Murata D 2-258.7 871 603 70.88% 20.03% 9.09%+1.76 -5.9 4
2018-10-20 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-258.7 603 871 9.09% 20.03% 70.88%-1.76 +5.9 4
2018-10-21 Faetano W 1-032.2 992 696 72.45% 19.64% 7.91%+1.92 +5.1 7
2018-10-21 @ Libertas L 0-132.2 696 992 7.91% 19.64% 72.45%-1.92 -5.1 0
2018-10-21 San Giovanni D 1-153.2 667 603 53.64% 22.05% 24.32%+0.62 -3.5 1
2018-10-21 @ Virtus D 1-153.2 603 667 24.32% 22.05% 53.64%-0.62 +3.5 1
2018-10-21 Tre Penne W 3-258.7 800 1068 14.78% 21.21% 64.01%-1.23 +29.7 12
2018-10-21 @ Pennarossa L 2-358.7 1068 800 64.01% 21.21% 14.78%+1.23 -29.7 4
2018-10-27 Cailungo L 1-344.0 691 763 35.63% 22.35% 42.02%-0.14 -32.5 0
2018-10-27 @ Faetano W 3-144.0 763 691 42.02% 22.35% 35.63%+0.14 +32.5 6
2018-10-27 Juvenes Dogana W 3-030.7 1038 865 64.27% 21.18% 14.56%+1.23 +25.4 7
2018-10-27 @ Tre Penne L 0-330.7 865 1038 14.56% 21.18% 64.27%-1.23 -25.4 4
2018-10-27 Libertas W 4-136.7 1118 997 59.62% 21.66% 18.72%+0.94 +26.9 10
2018-10-27 @ La Fiorita L 1-436.7 997 1118 18.72% 21.66% 59.62%-0.94 -26.9 7
2018-10-27 San Giovanni D 0-050.7 1027 606 78.15% 17.65% 4.20%+2.61 -10.8 8
2018-10-27 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-050.7 606 1027 4.20% 17.65% 78.15%-2.61 +10.8 2
2018-10-28 Cosmos W 2-044.6 776 944 23.69% 22.01% 54.30%-0.68 +53.5 8
2018-10-28 @ Fiorentino L 0-244.6 944 776 54.30% 22.01% 23.69%+0.68 -53.5 4
2018-10-28 Tre Fiori L 1-338.4 829 1062 17.55% 21.54% 60.91%-1.03 -18.0 12
2018-10-28 @ Pennarossa W 3-138.4 1062 829 60.91% 21.54% 17.55%+1.03 +18.0 15
2018-10-28 Virtus W 4-037.5 609 664 37.95% 22.36% 39.68%-0.04 +77.6 7
2018-10-28 @ Murata L 0-437.5 664 609 39.68% 22.36% 37.95%+0.04 -77.6 1
2018-11-03 Domagnano L 1-347.1 891 890 45.83% 22.30% 31.87%+0.27 -39.8 4
2018-11-03 @ Cosmos W 3-147.1 890 891 31.87% 22.30% 45.83%-0.27 +39.8 10
2018-11-03 Faetano D 1-153.5 830 659 64.10% 21.20% 14.70%+1.22 -6.2 9
2018-11-03 @ Fiorentino D 1-153.5 659 830 14.70% 21.20% 64.10%-1.22 +6.2 1
2018-11-03 Murata D 0-049.3 617 686 35.98% 22.35% 41.66%-0.12 +0.7 3
2018-11-03 @ San Giovanni D 0-049.3 686 617 41.66% 22.35% 35.98%+0.12 -0.7 8
2018-11-03 Pennarossa W 3-029.9 1016 811 66.72% 20.83% 12.45%+1.41 +22.0 11
2018-11-03 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-329.9 811 1016 12.45% 20.83% 66.72%-1.41 -22.0 12
2018-11-04 Cailungo W 2-136.0 1145 795 75.16% 18.82% 6.02%+2.22 +3.7 13
2018-11-04 @ La Fiorita L 1-236.0 795 1145 6.02% 18.82% 75.16%-2.22 -3.7 6
2018-11-04 Tre Penne W 2-144.2 1080 1063 47.79% 22.26% 29.95%+0.36 +16.4 18
2018-11-04 @ Tre Fiori L 1-244.2 1063 1080 29.95% 22.26% 47.79%-0.36 -16.4 7
2018-11-04 Virtus W 1-032.9 839 586 69.98% 20.23% 9.79%+1.68 +6.4 7
2018-11-04 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-132.9 586 839 9.79% 20.23% 69.98%-1.68 -6.4 1
2018-11-10 Folgore Falciano L 1-333.9 580 1038 5.71% 18.66% 75.64%-2.30 -6.0 1
2018-11-10 @ Virtus W 3-133.9 1038 580 75.64% 18.66% 5.71%+2.30 +6.0 14
2018-11-10 Pennarossa W 3-034.1 846 789 52.73% 22.09% 25.18%+0.58 +41.2 10
2018-11-10 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-334.1 789 846 25.18% 22.09% 52.73%-0.58 -41.2 12
2018-11-10 San Giovanni W 5-025.0 1047 618 78.47% 17.51% 4.02%+2.66 +11.3 10
2018-11-10 @ Tre Penne L 0-525.0 618 1047 4.02% 17.51% 78.47%-2.66 -11.3 3
2018-11-10 Tre Fiori W 3-154.4 686 1096 7.27% 19.40% 73.34%-2.03 +61.9 11
2018-11-10 @ Murata L 1-354.4 1096 686 73.34% 19.40% 7.27%+2.03 -61.9 18
2018-11-11 Domagnano L 1-341.4 792 929 27.10% 22.17% 50.73%-0.51 -26.1 6
2018-11-11 @ Cailungo W 3-141.4 929 792 50.73% 22.17% 27.10%+0.51 +26.1 13
2018-11-11 Fiorentino D 3-362.2 970 824 62.02% 21.43% 16.55%+1.08 -3.5 8
2018-11-11 @ Libertas D 3-362.2 824 970 16.55% 21.43% 62.02%-1.08 +3.5 10
2018-11-11 La Fiorita L 0-429.0 851 1149 12.80% 20.89% 66.31%-1.40 -29.5 4
2018-11-11 @ Cosmos W 4-029.0 1149 851 66.31% 20.89% 12.80%+1.40 +29.4 16

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-11-24 Fiorentino D 1-153.4 967 827 61.39% 21.50% 17.11%+1.04 -5.4 1
2018-11-24 @ Libertas D 1-153.4 827 967 17.11% 21.50% 61.39%-1.04 +5.5 1
2018-11-24 La Fiorita L 1-243.5 1044 1178 27.58% 22.18% 50.24%-0.48 -15.3 0
2018-11-24 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-143.5 1178 1044 50.24% 22.18% 27.58%+0.48 +15.3 3
2018-11-24 Murata L 0-150.3 956 747 66.95% 20.79% 12.26%+1.43 -34.7 0
2018-11-24 @ Domagnano W 1-050.3 747 956 12.26% 20.79% 66.95%-1.43 +34.7 3
2018-11-24 Tre Fiori L 0-330.3 748 1034 13.54% 21.02% 65.44%-1.33 -23.8 0
2018-11-24 @ Pennarossa W 3-030.3 1034 748 65.44% 21.02% 13.54%+1.33 +23.8 3
2018-11-25 Juvenes Dogana L 0-239.4 822 887 36.52% 22.36% 41.12%-0.10 -38.3 0
2018-11-25 @ Cosmos W 2-039.4 887 822 41.12% 22.36% 36.52%+0.10 +38.3 3
2018-11-25 San Giovanni L 0-143.0 574 607 41.13% 22.36% 36.51%+0.08 -22.3 0
2018-11-25 @ Virtus W 1-043.0 607 574 36.51% 22.36% 41.13%-0.08 +22.3 3
2018-11-25 Tre Penne L 0-330.2 766 1058 13.09% 20.94% 65.96%-1.37 -23.0 0
2018-11-25 @ Cailungo W 3-030.2 1058 766 65.96% 20.94% 13.09%+1.37 +23.0 3
2018-12-01 Cailungo W 3-252.7 665 742 34.78% 22.34% 42.87%-0.17 +20.6 3
2018-12-01 @ Faetano L 2-352.7 742 665 42.87% 22.34% 34.78%+0.17 -20.6 0
2018-12-01 Libertas W 3-246.9 1029 961 54.02% 22.03% 23.95%+0.64 +12.9 3
2018-12-01 @ Folgore Falciano L 2-346.9 961 1029 23.95% 22.03% 54.02%-0.64 -12.9 1
2018-12-01 San Giovanni W 2-030.0 925 629 72.48% 19.63% 7.88%+1.92 +9.7 6
2018-12-01 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-230.0 629 925 7.88% 19.63% 72.48%-1.92 -9.7 3
2018-12-01 Virtus W 4-130.0 1081 552 81.88% 15.72% 2.40%+3.22 +3.4 6
2018-12-01 @ Tre Penne L 1-430.0 552 1081 2.40% 15.72% 81.88%-3.22 -3.4 0
2018-12-02 Domagnano W 5-030.2 1058 921 61.16% 21.52% 17.32%+1.03 +47.9 6
2018-12-02 @ Tre Fiori L 0-530.2 921 1058 17.32% 21.52% 61.16%-1.03 -47.9 0
2018-12-02 Fiorentino L 0-240.0 782 832 38.63% 22.36% 39.01%-0.02 -40.0 3
2018-12-02 @ Murata W 2-040.0 832 782 39.01% 22.36% 38.63%+0.02 +40.0 4
2018-12-02 Pennarossa W 7-126.9 1193 724 79.91% 16.81% 3.28%+2.88 +8.9 6
2018-12-02 @ La Fiorita L 1-726.9 724 1193 3.28% 16.81% 79.91%-2.88 -8.9 0
2018-12-08 Domagnano W 2-038.1 873 873 45.59% 22.30% 32.10%+0.26 +34.6 7
2018-12-08 @ Fiorentino L 0-238.1 873 873 32.10% 22.30% 45.59%-0.26 -34.6 0
2018-12-08 Folgore Falciano W 3-153.3 716 1042 11.09% 20.55% 68.35%-1.56 +57.9 3
2018-12-08 @ Pennarossa L 1-353.3 1042 716 68.35% 20.55% 11.09%+1.56 -57.9 3
2018-12-08 La Fiorita L 0-926.7 742 1202 5.65% 18.63% 75.72%-2.31 -28.2 3
2018-12-08 @ Murata W 9-026.7 1202 742 75.72% 18.63% 5.65%+2.31 +28.2 9
2018-12-08 Tre Fiori D 2-258.1 948 1106 24.85% 22.07% 53.08%-0.62 +2.5 2
2018-12-08 @ Libertas D 2-258.1 1106 948 53.08% 22.07% 24.85%+0.62 -2.5 7
2018-12-09 Cosmos D 0-049.3 722 783 37.03% 22.36% 40.61%-0.08 +0.4 1
2018-12-09 @ Cailungo D 0-049.3 783 722 40.61% 22.36% 37.03%+0.08 -0.5 1
2018-12-09 Faetano L 1-341.4 548 685 27.17% 22.17% 50.66%-0.50 -26.1 0
2018-12-09 @ Virtus W 3-141.4 685 548 50.66% 22.17% 27.17%+0.50 +26.1 6
2018-12-09 Tre Penne L 0-327.2 619 1085 5.50% 18.54% 75.96%-2.34 -9.7 3
2018-12-09 @ San Giovanni W 3-027.2 1085 619 75.96% 18.54% 5.50%+2.34 +9.7 9
2019-01-12 Faetano W 1-037.6 783 712 54.46% 22.00% 23.54%+0.66 +14.2 4
2019-01-12 @ Cosmos L 0-137.6 712 783 23.54% 22.00% 54.46%-0.66 -14.2 6
2019-01-12 Juvenes Dogana W 2-139.6 1094 935 63.13% 21.31% 15.56%+1.15 +9.3 12
2019-01-12 @ Tre Penne L 1-239.6 935 1094 15.56% 21.31% 63.13%-1.15 -9.3 6
2019-01-12 Virtus W 3-243.2 722 522 66.38% 20.88% 12.74%+1.38 +7.3 4
2019-01-12 @ Cailungo L 2-343.2 522 722 12.74% 20.88% 66.38%-1.38 -7.3 0
2019-01-13 Domagnano W 4-025.8 1230 838 77.01% 18.13% 4.85%+2.45 +11.1 12
2019-01-13 @ La Fiorita L 0-425.8 838 1230 4.85% 18.13% 77.01%-2.45 -11.1 0
2019-01-13 Fiorentino D 2-258.4 1103 907 66.08% 20.93% 12.99%+1.36 -5.0 8
2019-01-13 @ Tre Fiori D 2-258.4 907 1103 12.99% 20.93% 66.08%-1.36 +5.0 8
2019-01-13 Murata D 0-050.0 984 714 71.00% 20.00% 9.00%+1.77 -8.9 4
2019-01-13 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-050.0 714 984 9.00% 20.00% 71.00%-1.77 +8.9 4
2019-01-13 Pennarossa W 3-030.6 951 773 64.62% 21.13% 14.25%+1.25 +24.9 5
2019-01-13 @ Libertas L 0-330.6 773 951 14.25% 21.13% 64.62%-1.25 -24.9 3
2019-01-19 Folgore Falciano L 0-344.4 1098 975 59.86% 21.64% 18.50%+0.95 -85.2 8
2019-01-19 @ Tre Fiori W 3-044.4 975 1098 18.50% 21.64% 59.86%-0.95 +85.2 7
2019-01-19 La Fiorita L 0-231.2 912 1242 10.92% 20.51% 68.57%-1.58 -13.3 8
2019-01-19 @ Fiorentino W 2-031.2 1242 912 68.57% 20.51% 10.92%+1.58 +13.3 15
2019-01-19 Libertas D 2-258.1 827 976 25.84% 22.12% 52.04%-0.57 +2.3 1
2019-01-19 @ Domagnano D 2-258.1 976 827 52.04% 22.12% 25.84%+0.57 -2.3 6
2019-01-19 Pennarossa W 1-041.3 723 749 42.14% 22.35% 35.51%+0.12 +19.9 7
2019-01-19 @ Murata L 0-141.3 749 723 35.51% 22.35% 42.14%-0.12 -19.9 3
2019-01-20 Cailungo D 1-153.2 610 730 29.25% 22.24% 48.51%-0.41 +2.2 4
2019-01-20 @ San Giovanni D 1-153.2 730 610 48.51% 22.24% 29.25%+0.41 -2.2 5
2019-01-20 Cosmos L 0-134.4 515 797 13.77% 21.06% 65.17%-1.31 -8.8 0
2019-01-20 @ Virtus W 1-034.4 797 515 65.17% 21.06% 13.77%+1.31 +8.8 7
2019-01-20 Faetano D 2-258.5 926 697 68.37% 20.55% 11.09%+1.54 -5.4 7
2019-01-20 @ Juvenes Dogana D 2-258.5 697 926 11.09% 20.55% 68.37%-1.54 +5.4 7
2019-01-26 Domagnano W 2-042.2 729 829 31.70% 22.30% 46.00%-0.30 +46.1 6
2019-01-26 @ Pennarossa L 0-242.2 829 729 46.00% 22.30% 31.70%+0.30 -46.1 1
2019-01-26 Fiorentino D 1-153.4 1060 899 63.30% 21.29% 15.41%+1.17 -6.0 8
2019-01-26 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-153.4 899 1060 15.41% 21.29% 63.30%-1.17 +6.0 9
2019-01-26 Libertas W 2-030.3 1255 974 71.65% 19.85% 8.50%+1.84 +10.4 18
2019-01-26 @ La Fiorita L 0-230.3 974 1255 8.50% 19.85% 71.65%-1.84 -10.4 6
2019-01-26 Tre Fiori L 0-330.7 743 1013 14.61% 21.18% 64.21%-1.25 -25.5 7
2019-01-26 @ Murata W 3-030.7 1013 743 64.21% 21.18% 14.61%+1.25 +25.5 11
2019-01-27 Cosmos L 0-136.8 612 806 21.02% 21.84% 57.13%-0.82 -12.9 4
2019-01-27 @ San Giovanni W 1-036.8 806 612 57.13% 21.84% 21.02%+0.82 +12.9 10
2019-01-27 Juvenes Dogana L 2-438.5 506 920 7.13% 19.34% 73.53%-2.05 -6.8 0
2019-01-27 @ Virtus W 4-238.5 920 506 73.53% 19.34% 7.13%+2.05 +6.8 10
2019-01-27 Tre Penne L 0-229.9 703 1104 7.63% 19.54% 72.84%-1.98 -9.4 7
2019-01-27 @ Faetano W 2-029.9 1104 703 72.84% 19.54% 7.63%+1.98 +9.4 15
2019-02-02 Juvenes Dogana D 2-258.2 727 927 20.51% 21.81% 57.69%-0.85 +3.4 6
2019-02-02 @ Cailungo D 2-258.2 927 727 57.69% 21.81% 20.51%+0.85 -3.4 11
2019-02-02 San Giovanni W 1-036.8 693 599 56.96% 21.86% 21.18%+0.79 +13.0 10
2019-02-02 @ Faetano L 0-136.8 599 693 21.18% 21.86% 56.96%-0.79 -13.0 4
2019-02-02 Tre Penne L 0-231.9 819 1113 13.00% 20.93% 66.07%-1.38 -15.8 10
2019-02-02 @ Cosmos W 2-031.9 1113 819 66.07% 20.93% 13.00%+1.38 +15.8 18
2019-02-03 Folgore Falciano D 2-258.4 783 1054 14.58% 21.18% 64.24%-1.25 +4.6 2
2019-02-03 @ Domagnano D 2-258.4 1054 783 64.24% 21.18% 14.58%+1.25 -4.6 9
2019-02-03 Murata W 3-135.8 963 717 69.51% 20.33% 10.16%+1.64 +10.8 9
2019-02-03 @ Libertas L 1-335.8 717 963 10.16% 20.33% 69.51%-1.64 -10.8 7
2019-02-03 Pennarossa D 1-153.4 905 775 60.48% 21.58% 17.93%+0.99 -5.2 10
2019-02-03 @ Fiorentino D 1-153.4 775 905 17.93% 21.58% 60.48%-0.99 +5.2 7
2019-02-03 Tre Fiori W 4-134.2 1265 1039 68.24% 20.57% 11.19%+1.53 +16.7 21
2019-02-03 @ La Fiorita L 1-434.2 1039 1265 11.19% 20.57% 68.24%-1.53 -16.7 11
2019-02-09 Domagnano L 2-350.1 706 788 34.28% 22.34% 43.39%-0.19 -17.3 7
2019-02-09 @ Murata W 3-250.1 788 706 43.39% 22.34% 34.28%+0.19 +17.3 5
2019-02-09 Folgore Falciano W 2-138.0 1282 1050 68.64% 20.50% 10.86%+1.56 +6.6 24
2019-02-09 @ La Fiorita L 1-238.0 1050 1282 10.86% 20.50% 68.64%-1.56 -6.6 9
2019-02-09 Libertas D 2-258.0 900 974 35.25% 22.35% 42.41%-0.15 +0.6 11
2019-02-09 @ Fiorentino D 2-258.0 974 900 42.41% 22.35% 35.25%+0.15 -0.6 10
2019-02-09 Pennarossa W 3-135.8 1022 780 69.27% 20.38% 10.35%+1.62 +11.0 14
2019-02-09 @ Tre Fiori L 1-335.8 780 1022 10.35% 20.38% 69.27%-1.62 -11.0 7
2019-02-10 Cailungo W 5-234.5 1129 731 77.26% 18.03% 4.71%+2.49 +6.0 21
2019-02-10 @ Tre Penne L 2-534.5 731 1129 4.71% 18.03% 77.26%-2.49 -6.0 6
2019-02-10 Cosmos W 3-138.7 924 803 59.58% 21.66% 18.76%+0.94 +19.1 14
2019-02-10 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-338.7 803 924 18.76% 21.66% 59.58%-0.94 -19.0 10
2019-02-10 Virtus D 0-049.4 586 499 56.14% 21.91% 21.95%+0.75 -4.6 5
2019-02-10 @ San Giovanni D 0-049.4 499 586 21.95% 21.91% 56.14%-0.75 +4.6 1
2019-02-16 Faetano W 2-144.1 725 706 48.05% 22.25% 29.70%+0.37 +16.2 9
2019-02-16 @ Cailungo L 1-244.1 706 725 29.70% 22.25% 48.05%-0.37 -16.2 10
2019-02-16 Juvenes Dogana W 1-051.1 581 943 9.31% 20.10% 70.59%-1.75 +36.6 8
2019-02-16 @ San Giovanni L 0-151.1 943 581 70.59% 20.10% 9.31%+1.75 -36.6 14
2019-02-16 Tre Penne L 0-424.3 504 1135 2.36% 15.66% 81.98%-3.26 -5.2 1
2019-02-16 @ Virtus W 4-024.3 1135 504 81.98% 15.66% 2.36%+3.26 +5.2 24
2019-02-17 Folgore Falciano L 0-141.4 973 1043 35.89% 22.35% 41.76%-0.13 -20.0 10
2019-02-17 @ Libertas W 1-041.4 1043 973 41.76% 22.35% 35.89%+0.13 +20.0 12
2019-02-17 La Fiorita W 1-052.7 769 1289 4.18% 17.64% 78.19%-2.64 +40.0 10
2019-02-17 @ Pennarossa L 0-152.7 1289 769 78.19% 17.64% 4.18%+2.64 -40.0 24
2019-02-17 Murata L 0-346.3 900 689 67.15% 20.76% 12.09%+1.44 -95.4 11
2019-02-17 @ Fiorentino W 3-046.3 689 900 12.09% 20.76% 67.15%-1.44 +95.4 10
2019-02-17 Tre Fiori D 2-258.2 805 1033 17.95% 21.58% 60.46%-1.01 +3.9 6
2019-02-17 @ Domagnano D 2-258.2 1033 805 60.46% 21.58% 17.95%+1.01 -3.9 15
2019-02-23 Cailungo D 1-153.2 784 741 51.15% 22.15% 26.70%+0.50 -2.9 11
2019-02-23 @ Cosmos D 1-153.2 741 784 26.70% 22.15% 51.15%-0.50 +2.8 10
2019-02-23 San Giovanni W 3-132.1 1140 618 81.64% 15.86% 2.50%+3.18 +2.5 27
2019-02-23 @ Tre Penne L 1-332.1 618 1140 2.50% 15.86% 81.64%-3.18 -2.5 8
2019-02-23 Virtus W 5-028.8 690 498 65.73% 20.98% 13.30%+1.33 +37.6 13
2019-02-23 @ Faetano L 0-528.8 498 690 13.30% 20.98% 65.73%-1.33 -37.6 1
2019-02-24 Fiorentino W 2-144.6 809 805 46.22% 22.29% 31.48%+0.29 +17.0 9
2019-02-24 @ Domagnano L 1-244.6 805 809 31.48% 22.29% 46.22%-0.29 -17.0 11
2019-02-24 Libertas W 2-035.3 1029 953 54.95% 21.98% 23.07%+0.69 +26.3 18
2019-02-24 @ Tre Fiori L 0-235.3 953 1029 23.07% 21.98% 54.95%-0.69 -26.3 10
2019-02-24 Murata W 3-026.0 1249 785 79.74% 16.90% 3.36%+2.86 +5.8 27
2019-02-24 @ La Fiorita L 0-326.0 785 1249 3.36% 16.90% 79.74%-2.86 -5.8 10
2019-02-24 Pennarossa W 1-032.9 1063 809 70.03% 20.22% 9.75%+1.68 +6.3 15
2019-02-24 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-132.9 809 1063 9.75% 20.22% 70.03%-1.68 -6.3 10
2019-03-02 Folgore Falciano D 0-049.7 779 1069 13.24% 20.97% 65.79%-1.36 +7.4 11
2019-03-02 @ Murata D 0-049.7 1069 779 65.79% 20.97% 13.24%+1.36 -7.4 16
2019-03-02 La Fiorita L 2-438.3 826 1255 6.64% 19.13% 74.23%-2.13 -6.3 9
2019-03-02 @ Domagnano W 4-238.3 1255 826 74.23% 19.13% 6.64%+2.13 +6.3 30
2019-03-02 Libertas L 1-341.9 803 927 28.73% 22.22% 49.05%-0.43 -27.4 10
2019-03-02 @ Pennarossa W 3-141.9 927 803 49.05% 22.22% 28.73%+0.43 +27.4 13
2019-03-02 Tre Fiori D 2-258.3 788 1056 14.81% 21.21% 63.98%-1.23 +4.6 12
2019-03-02 @ Fiorentino D 2-258.3 1056 788 63.98% 21.21% 14.81%+1.23 -4.6 19
2019-03-03 Cailungo L 2-343.6 461 744 13.75% 21.05% 65.20%-1.32 -7.9 1
2019-03-03 @ Virtus W 3-243.6 744 461 65.20% 21.05% 13.75%+1.32 +7.9 13
2019-03-03 Cosmos D 1-153.1 728 781 38.18% 22.36% 39.46%-0.04 +0.1 14
2019-03-03 @ Faetano D 1-153.1 781 728 39.46% 22.36% 38.18%+0.04 -0.1 12
2019-03-03 Tre Penne D 0-049.6 906 1143 17.23% 21.51% 61.26%-1.06 +6.1 15
2019-03-03 @ Juvenes Dogana D 0-049.6 1143 906 61.26% 21.51% 17.23%+1.06 -6.1 28
2019-03-09 Juvenes Dogana L 1-241.7 728 912 22.01% 21.91% 56.08%-0.77 -12.6 14
2019-03-09 @ Faetano W 2-141.7 912 728 56.08% 21.91% 22.01%+0.77 +12.6 18
2019-03-09 San Giovanni W 1-035.6 752 615 61.08% 21.53% 17.40%+1.02 +10.9 16
2019-03-09 @ Cailungo L 0-135.6 615 752 17.40% 21.53% 61.08%-1.02 -10.9 8
2019-03-09 Virtus W 2-029.5 781 453 74.12% 19.16% 6.72%+2.10 +8.2 15
2019-03-09 @ Cosmos L 0-229.5 453 781 6.72% 19.16% 74.12%-2.10 -8.2 1
2019-03-10 Domagnano D 3-362.2 954 820 60.91% 21.54% 17.55%+1.01 -3.3 14
2019-03-10 @ Libertas D 3-362.2 820 954 17.55% 21.54% 60.91%-1.01 +3.3 10
2019-03-10 Fiorentino W 5-233.7 1261 792 79.89% 16.82% 3.29%+2.88 +4.1 33
2019-03-10 @ La Fiorita L 2-533.7 792 1261 3.29% 16.82% 79.89%-2.88 -4.1 12
2019-03-10 Murata D 1-153.1 775 786 44.17% 22.33% 33.51%+0.20 -1.2 11
2019-03-10 @ Pennarossa D 1-153.1 786 775 33.51% 22.33% 44.17%-0.20 +1.2 12
2019-03-10 Tre Fiori W 3-249.0 1062 1051 47.10% 22.27% 30.62%+0.33 +15.8 19
2019-03-10 @ Folgore Falciano L 2-349.0 1051 1062 30.62% 22.27% 47.10%-0.33 -15.8 19
2019-03-16 Folgore Falciano L 2-343.4 788 1078 13.30% 20.98% 65.72%-1.35 -7.6 12
2019-03-16 @ Fiorentino W 3-243.4 1078 788 65.72% 20.98% 13.30%+1.35 +7.6 22
2019-03-16 La Fiorita D 1-153.7 951 1265 11.80% 20.70% 67.50%-1.49 +7.1 15
2019-03-16 @ Libertas D 1-153.7 1265 951 67.50% 20.70% 11.80%+1.49 -7.1 34
2019-03-16 Murata W 5-132.0 1035 787 69.63% 20.30% 10.06%+1.65 +19.5 22
2019-03-16 @ Tre Fiori L 1-532.0 787 1035 10.06% 20.30% 69.63%-1.65 -19.5 12
2019-03-16 Pennarossa L 1-250.7 823 774 51.86% 22.12% 26.02%+0.54 -25.6 10
2019-03-16 @ Domagnano W 2-150.7 774 823 26.02% 22.12% 51.86%-0.54 +25.6 14
2019-03-17 Faetano W 2-135.0 1137 715 78.17% 17.64% 4.18%+2.62 +2.5 31
2019-03-17 @ Tre Penne L 1-235.0 715 1137 4.18% 17.64% 78.17%-2.62 -2.5 14
2019-03-17 San Giovanni W 5-133.3 789 604 65.20% 21.05% 13.75%+1.30 +26.2 18
2019-03-17 @ Cosmos L 1-533.3 604 789 13.75% 21.05% 65.20%-1.30 -26.2 8
2019-03-17 Virtus W 7-126.7 925 445 80.29% 16.61% 3.10%+2.94 +8.4 21
2019-03-17 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-726.7 445 925 3.10% 16.61% 80.29%-2.94 -8.4 1
2019-03-30 Cailungo D 1-153.5 933 763 64.06% 21.20% 14.74%+1.22 -6.2 22
2019-03-30 @ Juvenes Dogana D 1-153.5 763 933 14.74% 21.20% 64.06%-1.22 +6.2 17
2019-03-30 Cosmos W 4-026.7 1139 816 73.89% 19.23% 6.87%+2.07 +16.0 34
2019-03-30 @ Tre Penne L 0-426.7 816 1139 6.87% 19.23% 73.89%-2.07 -16.0 18
2019-03-30 Faetano L 1-537.7 578 713 27.50% 22.18% 50.32%-0.49 -48.2 8
2019-03-30 @ San Giovanni W 5-137.7 713 578 50.32% 22.18% 27.50%+0.49 +48.2 17
2019-03-31 Domagnano L 3-463.7 1085 798 72.02% 19.75% 8.23%+1.87 -32.5 22
2019-03-31 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-363.7 798 1085 8.23% 19.75% 72.02%-1.87 +32.5 13
2019-03-31 Fiorentino L 0-242.9 800 781 48.15% 22.25% 29.60%+0.37 -48.0 14
2019-03-31 @ Pennarossa W 2-042.9 781 800 29.60% 22.25% 48.15%-0.37 +48.0 15
2019-03-31 La Fiorita L 0-332.6 1055 1258 20.16% 21.78% 58.06%-0.87 -34.0 22
2019-03-31 @ Tre Fiori W 3-032.6 1258 1055 58.06% 21.78% 20.16%+0.87 +34.0 37
2019-03-31 Libertas W 2-152.1 768 958 21.42% 21.87% 56.70%-0.80 +27.8 15
2019-03-31 @ Murata L 1-252.1 958 768 56.70% 21.87% 21.42%+0.80 -27.8 15
2019-04-03 Cosmos W 3-138.5 927 800 60.25% 21.60% 18.15%+0.98 +18.5 25
2019-04-03 @ Juvenes Dogana L 1-338.5 800 927 18.15% 21.60% 60.25%-0.98 -18.5 18

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2019-04-25 Juvenes Dogana W 1-031.5 1292 946 75.00% 18.88% 6.12%+2.20 +4.0 1-0
2019-04-25 @ La Fiorita L 0-131.5 946 1292 6.12% 18.88% 75.00%-2.20 -4.0 0-1
2019-04-26 Murata W 1-035.7 930 796 60.91% 21.54% 17.55%+1.01 +11.0 1-0
2019-04-26 @ Libertas L 0-135.7 796 930 17.55% 21.54% 60.91%-1.01 -11.0 0-1
2019-04-27 Fiorentino W 2-138.8 1021 828 65.76% 20.97% 13.27%+1.34 +8.0 1-0
2019-04-27 @ Tre Fiori L 1-238.8 828 1021 13.27% 20.97% 65.76%-1.34 -8.0 0-1
2019-04-28 Folgore Falciano W 1-036.7 1155 1053 57.75% 21.80% 20.45%+0.83 +12.6 1-0
2019-04-28 @ Tre Penne L 0-136.7 1053 1155 20.45% 21.80% 57.75%-0.83 -12.6 0-1
2019-05-02 La Fiorita L 0-527.5 942 1296 9.65% 20.19% 70.16%-1.71 -27.7 0-2
2019-05-02 @ Juvenes Dogana W 5-027.5 1296 942 70.16% 20.19% 9.65%+1.71 +27.6 2-0
2019-05-03 Libertas L 0-433.0 785 941 24.96% 22.08% 52.96%-0.61 -53.4 0-2
2019-05-03 @ Murata W 4-033.0 941 785 52.96% 22.08% 24.96%+0.61 +53.4 2-0
2019-05-04 Tre Fiori L 0-136.4 820 1029 19.71% 21.74% 58.55%-0.90 -12.2 0-2
2019-05-04 @ Fiorentino W 1-036.4 1029 820 58.55% 21.74% 19.71%+0.90 +12.2 2-0
2019-05-05 Tre Penne D 1-153.2 1040 1168 28.36% 22.21% 49.43%-0.45 +2.4 0-1-1
2019-05-05 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-153.2 1168 1040 49.43% 22.21% 28.36%+0.45 -2.4 1-0-1
2019-05-10 Folgore Falciano L 0-430.6 808 1043 17.39% 21.53% 61.08%-1.05 -39.0 0-3
2019-05-10 @ Fiorentino W 4-030.6 1043 808 61.08% 21.53% 17.39%+1.05 +39.0 1-1-1
2019-05-10 Murata W 4-029.4 914 731 65.02% 21.08% 13.90%+1.28 +31.8 1-2
2019-05-10 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-429.4 731 914 13.90% 21.08% 65.02%-1.28 -31.8 0-3
2019-05-11 Libertas W 1-031.8 1324 995 74.16% 19.15% 6.69%+2.10 +4.4 3-0
2019-05-11 @ La Fiorita L 0-131.8 995 1324 6.69% 19.15% 74.16%-2.10 -4.3 2-1
2019-05-12 Tre Penne L 0-139.3 1041 1165 28.72% 22.22% 49.06%-0.43 -16.8 2-1
2019-05-12 @ Tre Fiori W 1-039.3 1165 1041 49.06% 22.22% 28.72%+0.43 +16.8 2-0-1
2019-05-16 Fiorentino W 3-039.2 700 769 35.89% 22.35% 41.76%-0.13 +61.8 1-3
2019-05-16 @ Murata L 0-339.2 769 700 41.76% 22.35% 35.89%+0.13 -61.8 0-4
2019-05-16 Folgore Falciano W 1-045.8 946 1082 27.32% 22.17% 50.51%-0.50 +26.5 2-2
2019-05-16 @ Juvenes Dogana L 0-145.8 1082 946 50.51% 22.17% 27.32%+0.50 -26.5 1-2-1
2019-05-17 La Fiorita L 0-428.3 990 1328 10.49% 20.41% 69.11%-1.62 -24.3 2-2
2019-05-17 @ Libertas W 4-028.3 1328 990 69.11% 20.41% 10.49%+1.62 +24.3 4-0
2019-05-18 Tre Fiori W 2-139.7 1182 1024 62.99% 21.33% 15.68%+1.15 +9.4 3-0-1
2019-05-18 @ Tre Penne L 1-239.7 1024 1182 15.68% 21.33% 62.99%-1.15 -9.4 2-2
2019-05-24 Tre Fiori L 1-342.9 966 1015 32.10% 22.30% 45.60%-0.27 -30.0 2-3
2019-05-24 @ Libertas W 3-142.9 1015 966 45.60% 22.30% 32.10%+0.27 +29.9 3-2
2019-05-25 Tre Penne L 1-351.4 1352 1191 58.73% 21.73% 19.54%+0.90 -49.9 4-1
2019-05-25 @ La Fiorita W 3-151.4 1191 1352 19.54% 21.73% 58.73%-0.90 +49.9 4-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-10-07 2.19% Murata 561 1 @ Tre Penne 1109 0
2 2019-02-17 4.18% @ Pennarossa 769 1 La Fiorita 1289 0
3 2018-11-10 7.27% @ Murata 686 3 Tre Fiori 1096 1
4 2019-03-31 8.23% Domagnano 798 4 @ Folgore Falciano 1085 3
5 2019-02-16 9.31% @ San Giovanni 581 1 Juvenes Dogana 943 0
6 2018-12-08 11.09% @ Pennarossa 716 3 Folgore Falciano 1042 1
7 2019-02-17 12.09% Murata 689 3 @ Fiorentino 900 0
8 2018-11-24 12.26% Murata 747 1 @ Domagnano 956 0
9 2018-10-21 14.78% @ Pennarossa 800 3 Tre Penne 1068 2
10 2018-10-20 16.76% @ Cailungo 732 2 Cosmos 975 1
11 2019-01-19 18.50% Folgore Falciano 975 3 @ Tre Fiori 1098 0
12 2019-05-25 * 19.54% Tre Penne 1191 3 @ La Fiorita 1352 1
13 2019-03-31 21.42% @ Murata 768 2 Libertas 958 1
14 2018-10-28 23.69% @ Fiorentino 776 2 Cosmos 944 0
15 2018-09-23 25.96% @ Domagnano 865 1 Libertas 1013 0
16 2019-03-16 26.02% Pennarossa 774 2 @ Domagnano 823 1
17 2019-05-16 * 27.32% @ Juvenes Dogana 946 1 Folgore Falciano 1082 0
18 2018-09-22 28.77% Fiorentino 739 1 @ Cailungo 765 0
19 2019-03-31 29.60% Fiorentino 781 2 @ Pennarossa 800 0
20 2019-01-26 31.70% @ Pennarossa 729 2 Domagnano 829 0
21 2018-11-03 31.87% Domagnano 890 3 @ Cosmos 891 1
22 2018-12-01 34.78% @ Faetano 665 3 Cailungo 742 2
23 2019-05-16 * 35.89% @ Murata 700 3 Fiorentino 769 0
24 2018-11-25 36.51% San Giovanni 607 1 @ Virtus 574 0
25 2018-10-28 37.95% @ Murata 609 4 Virtus 664 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-02-17 95.37 Murata 3 689 12.09% @ Fiorentino 0 900 67.15% 20.76%
2 2019-01-19 85.17 Folgore Falciano 3 975 18.50% @ Tre Fiori 0 1098 59.86% 21.64%
3 2018-10-28 77.57 @ Murata 4 609 37.95% Virtus 0 664 39.68% 22.36%
4 2018-09-22 70.45 Tre Penne 8 1039 62.41% @ Virtus 0 789 16.20% 21.39%
5 2018-11-10 61.88 @ Murata 3 686 7.27% Tre Fiori 1 1096 73.34% 19.40%
6 2019-05-16 * 61.83 @ Murata 3 700 35.89% Fiorentino 0 769 41.76% 22.35%
7 2018-12-08 57.87 @ Pennarossa 3 716 11.09% Folgore Falciano 1 1042 68.35% 20.55%
8 2018-10-28 53.45 @ Fiorentino 2 776 23.69% Cosmos 0 944 54.30% 22.01%
9 2019-05-03 * 53.38 Libertas 4 941 52.96% @ Murata 0 785 24.96% 22.08%
10 2019-05-25 * 49.86 Tre Penne 3 1191 19.54% @ La Fiorita 1 1352 58.73% 21.73%
11 2018-10-06 48.52 Cosmos 4 926 55.76% @ Faetano 0 745 22.30% 21.93%
12 2019-03-30 48.22 Faetano 5 713 50.32% @ San Giovanni 1 578 27.50% 22.18%
13 2019-03-31 47.97 Fiorentino 2 781 29.60% @ Pennarossa 0 800 48.15% 22.25%
14 2018-12-02 47.92 @ Tre Fiori 5 1058 61.16% Domagnano 0 921 17.32% 21.52%
15 2019-01-26 46.13 @ Pennarossa 2 729 31.70% Domagnano 0 829 46.00% 22.30%
16 2018-10-07 41.29 Murata 1 561 2.19% @ Tre Penne 0 1109 82.41% 15.40%
17 2018-11-10 41.16 @ Juvenes Dogana 3 846 52.73% Pennarossa 0 789 25.18% 22.09%
18 2018-12-02 40.03 Fiorentino 2 832 39.01% @ Murata 0 782 38.63% 22.36%
19 2019-02-17 39.96 @ Pennarossa 1 769 4.18% La Fiorita 0 1289 78.19% 17.64%
20 2018-11-03 39.82 Domagnano 3 890 31.87% @ Cosmos 1 891 45.83% 22.30%
21 2018-10-06 39.75 Pennarossa 2 760 39.37% @ Virtus 0 707 38.27% 22.36%
22 2018-10-20 39.65 @ Tre Fiori 2 1022 39.48% Folgore Falciano 0 1067 38.16% 22.36%
23 2019-05-10 * 39.02 Folgore Falciano 4 1043 61.08% @ Fiorentino 0 808 17.39% 21.53%
24 2018-11-25 38.32 Juvenes Dogana 2 887 41.12% @ Cosmos 0 822 36.52% 22.36%
25 2019-02-23 37.61 @ Faetano 5 690 65.73% Virtus 0 498 13.30% 20.98%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-03-31 63.7 Domagnano 4 798 8.23% @ Folgore Falciano 3 1085 72.02% 19.75%
2 2018-11-11 62.2 @ Libertas 3 970 62.02% Fiorentino 3 824 16.55% 21.43%
3 2019-03-10 62.2 @ Libertas 3 954 60.91% Domagnano 3 820 17.55% 21.54%
4 2018-09-29 62.0 @ Cosmos 3 926 37.31% Libertas 3 986 40.33% 22.36%
5 2018-10-20 58.7 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 871 70.88% Murata 2 603 9.09% 20.03%
6 2018-10-21 58.7 @ Pennarossa 3 800 14.78% Tre Penne 2 1068 64.01% 21.21%
7 2018-09-30 58.6 @ Fiorentino 2 765 9.80% La Fiorita 2 1116 69.96% 20.23%
8 2019-01-20 58.5 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 926 68.37% Faetano 2 697 11.09% 20.55%
9 2019-01-13 58.4 @ Tre Fiori 2 1103 66.08% Fiorentino 2 907 12.99% 20.93%
10 2019-02-03 58.4 @ Domagnano 2 783 14.58% Folgore Falciano 2 1054 64.24% 21.18%
11 2019-03-02 58.3 @ Fiorentino 2 788 14.81% Tre Fiori 2 1056 63.98% 21.21%
12 2019-02-02 58.2 @ Cailungo 2 727 20.51% Juvenes Dogana 2 927 57.69% 21.81%
13 2019-02-17 58.2 @ Domagnano 2 805 17.95% Tre Fiori 2 1033 60.46% 21.58%
14 2018-12-08 58.1 @ Libertas 2 948 24.85% Tre Fiori 2 1106 53.08% 22.07%
15 2019-01-19 58.1 @ Domagnano 2 827 25.84% Libertas 2 976 52.04% 22.12%
16 2019-02-09 58.0 @ Fiorentino 2 900 35.25% Libertas 2 974 42.41% 22.35%
17 2018-11-10 54.4 @ Murata 3 686 7.27% Tre Fiori 1 1096 73.34% 19.40%
18 2019-03-16 53.7 @ Libertas 1 951 11.80% La Fiorita 1 1265 67.50% 20.70%
19 2018-10-20 53.5 @ Cailungo 2 732 16.76% Cosmos 1 975 61.79% 21.46%
20 2018-11-03 53.5 @ Fiorentino 1 830 64.10% Faetano 1 659 14.70% 21.20%
21 2019-03-30 53.5 @ Juvenes Dogana 1 933 64.06% Cailungo 1 763 14.74% 21.20%
22 2018-11-24 53.4 @ Libertas 1 967 61.39% Fiorentino 1 827 17.11% 21.50%
23 2019-01-26 53.4 @ Folgore Falciano 1 1060 63.30% Fiorentino 1 899 15.41% 21.29%
24 2019-02-03 53.4 @ Fiorentino 1 905 60.48% Pennarossa 1 775 17.93% 21.58%
25 2018-10-07 53.3 Murata 1 561 2.19% @ Tre Penne 0 1109 82.41% 15.40%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-02-16 24.3 Tre Penne 4 1135 81.98% @ Virtus 0 504 2.36% 15.66%
2 2018-11-10 25.0 @ Tre Penne 5 1047 78.47% San Giovanni 0 618 4.02% 17.51%
3 2019-01-13 25.8 @ La Fiorita 4 1230 77.01% Domagnano 0 838 4.85% 18.13%
4 2019-02-24 26.0 @ La Fiorita 3 1249 79.74% Murata 0 785 3.36% 16.90%
5 2018-12-08 26.7 La Fiorita 9 1202 75.72% @ Murata 0 742 5.65% 18.63%
6 2019-03-17 26.7 @ Juvenes Dogana 7 925 80.29% Virtus 1 445 3.10% 16.61%
7 2019-03-30 26.7 @ Tre Penne 4 1139 73.89% Cosmos 0 816 6.87% 19.23%
8 2018-12-02 26.9 @ La Fiorita 7 1193 79.91% Pennarossa 1 724 3.28% 16.81%
9 2018-10-07 27.2 Tre Fiori 5 996 70.95% @ San Giovanni 0 629 9.03% 20.01%
10 2018-12-09 27.2 Tre Penne 3 1085 75.96% @ San Giovanni 0 619 5.50% 18.54%
11 2019-05-02 * 27.5 La Fiorita 5 1296 70.16% @ Juvenes Dogana 0 942 9.65% 20.19%
12 2018-09-23 28.3 Folgore Falciano 7 1041 74.97% @ Murata 1 597 6.14% 18.89%
13 2019-05-17 * 28.3 La Fiorita 4 1328 69.11% @ Libertas 0 990 10.49% 20.41%
14 2019-02-23 28.8 @ Faetano 5 690 65.73% Virtus 0 498 13.30% 20.98%
15 2018-11-11 29.0 La Fiorita 4 1149 66.31% @ Cosmos 0 851 12.80% 20.89%
16 2019-05-10 * 29.4 @ Juvenes Dogana 4 914 65.02% Murata 0 731 13.90% 21.08%
17 2019-03-09 29.5 @ Cosmos 2 781 74.12% Virtus 0 453 6.72% 19.16%
18 2018-11-03 29.9 @ Folgore Falciano 3 1016 66.72% Pennarossa 0 811 12.45% 20.83%
19 2019-01-27 29.9 Tre Penne 2 1104 72.84% @ Faetano 0 703 7.63% 19.54%
20 2018-12-01 30.0 @ Juvenes Dogana 2 925 72.48% San Giovanni 0 629 7.88% 19.63%
21 2018-12-01 30.0 @ Tre Penne 4 1081 81.88% Virtus 1 552 2.40% 15.72%
22 2018-11-25 30.2 Tre Penne 3 1058 65.96% @ Cailungo 0 766 13.09% 20.94%
23 2018-12-02 30.2 @ Tre Fiori 5 1058 61.16% Domagnano 0 921 17.32% 21.52%
24 2018-11-24 30.3 Tre Fiori 3 1034 65.44% @ Pennarossa 0 748 13.54% 21.02%
25 2019-01-26 30.3 @ La Fiorita 2 1255 71.65% Libertas 0 974 8.50% 19.85%