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2006-07 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Gretna

66 pts

Relegated

Ross County

37 pts

Airdrie United · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Dundee

8.36 points above expected

53 points · 44.64 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Airdrie United

7.96 points below expected

40 points · 47.96 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Gretna Promoted 36 19 9 8 66 70 40 +30 66.21 -0.21
2 St. Johnstone 36 19 8 9 65 65 42 +23 61.64 +3.36
3 Dundee 36 16 5 15 53 48 42 +6 44.64 +8.36
4 Hamilton Academical 36 14 11 11 53 46 47 -1 55.47 -2.47
5 Clyde 36 11 14 11 47 46 35 +11 53.92 -6.92
6 Livingston 36 11 12 13 45 41 46 -5 45.27 -0.27
7 Partick Thistle 36 12 9 15 45 47 63 -16 42.94 +2.06
8 Queen of the South 36 10 11 15 41 34 54 -20 35.65 +5.35
9 Airdrie United Relegated 36 11 7 18 40 39 50 -11 47.96 -7.96
10 Ross County Relegated 36 9 10 17 37 40 57 -17 43.56 -6.56

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 53 44.64 +8.36
2 Queen of the South 41 35.65 +5.35
3 St. Johnstone 65 61.64 +3.36
4 Partick Thistle 45 42.94 +2.06
5 Gretna 66 66.21 -0.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Airdrie United 40 47.96 -7.96
2 Clyde 47 53.92 -6.92
3 Ross County 37 43.56 -6.56
4 Hamilton Academical 53 55.47 -2.47
5 Livingston 45 45.27 -0.27

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 4 Feb 17 – Mar 10 1 in 316
2 Clyde 4 Feb 17 – Mar 10 1 in 52
3 Partick Thistle 4 Sep 30 – Oct 28 1 in 52
4 St. Johnstone 4 Apr 7 – Apr 28 1 in 41
5 Dundee 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 40

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Clyde 3 Jan 20 – Feb 10 1 in 46
2 Airdrie United 4 Aug 26 – Sep 23 1 in 43
3 Livingston 3 Dec 23 – Jan 2 1 in 31
4 Gretna 2 Feb 24 – Mar 3 1 in 25
5 Partick Thistle 4 Mar 17 – Apr 3 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 12 Jan 27 – Apr 14 1 in 3,199
2 Livingston 8 Aug 5 – Sep 30 1 in 91
3 Clyde 9 Oct 21 – Dec 16 1 in 52
4 St. Johnstone 10 Aug 5 – Oct 21 1 in 22
5 Airdrie United 5 Apr 4 – Apr 28 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Clyde 8 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 156
2 Hamilton Academical 8 Nov 18 – Jan 2 1 in 83
3 Airdrie United 7 Aug 5 – Sep 23 1 in 39
4 Queen of the South 10 Aug 5 – Oct 21 1 in 18
5 Partick Thistle 7 Dec 16 – Feb 10 1 in 18

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Gretna 1616 66 -9 6 8.6 -2.6
St. Johnstone 1609 65 +18 12 7.9 +4.1
Dundee 1500 53 +7 10 7.0 +3.0
Hamilton Academical 1538 53 +0 5 7.3 -2.3
Clyde 1556 47 -10 3 7.6 -4.6
Partick Thistle 1451 45 +1 6 6.5 -0.5
Livingston 1465 45 -8 4 6.1 -2.1
Queen of the South 1445 41 -18 3 6.3 -3.3
Airdrie United 1494 40 +18 9 6.1 +2.9
Ross County 1462 37 -2 5 6.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU CLY DUN GRE HA LIV PT QOTS RC SJ
Airdrie United —
3-1-0
4.72
0-0-4
5.67
2-2-0
3.44
1-0-3
4.84
2-0-2
5.66
1-1-2
5.97
1-2-1
6.59
0-1-3
5.89
1-0-3
4.02
Clyde
0-1-3
6.32
 —
2-1-1
6.40
1-2-1
4.20
2-1-1
5.44
0-3-1
6.50
2-2-0
6.35
2-1-1
7.25
1-2-1
6.57
1-1-2
4.74
Dundee
4-0-0
5.35
1-1-2
4.63
 —
1-0-3
3.50
1-1-2
4.62
3-0-1
5.41
1-0-3
5.60
2-1-1
6.47
2-1-1
5.69
1-1-2
4.04
Gretna
0-2-2
7.70
1-2-1
6.85
3-0-1
7.64
 —
2-1-1
6.63
2-2-0
7.64
3-1-0
7.73
3-0-1
8.44
4-0-0
7.78
1-1-2
6.13
Hamilton Academical
3-0-1
6.19
1-1-2
5.57
2-1-1
6.41
1-1-2
4.41
 —
3-1-0
6.38
2-0-2
6.51
0-4-0
7.26
2-1-1
6.55
0-2-2
4.71
Livingston
2-0-2
5.35
1-3-0
4.53
1-0-3
5.60
0-2-2
3.49
0-1-3
4.65
 —
1-2-1
5.56
1-1-2
6.27
2-2-0
5.38
3-1-0
3.85
Partick Thistle
2-1-1
5.05
0-2-2
4.67
3-0-1
5.40
0-1-3
3.41
2-0-2
4.53
1-2-1
5.45
 —
1-2-1
6.21
2-1-1
5.39
1-0-3
3.79
Queen of the South
1-2-1
4.46
1-1-2
3.84
1-1-2
4.57
1-0-3
2.80
0-4-0
3.83
2-1-1
4.76
1-2-1
4.81
 —
2-0-2
4.72
1-0-3
3.38
Ross County
3-1-0
5.12
1-2-1
4.47
1-1-2
5.32
0-0-4
3.36
1-1-2
4.49
0-2-2
5.64
1-1-2
5.62
2-0-2
6.31
 —
0-2-2
3.83
St. Johnstone
3-0-1
7.05
2-1-1
6.28
2-1-1
7.02
2-1-1
4.88
2-2-0
6.31
0-1-3
7.24
3-0-1
7.30
3-0-1
7.77
2-2-0
7.26
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +8.2
Allowed 0.36 -7.0
Differential 0.84 +5.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%9.17%5.83%3.61%1.39%1.11%29.44%
19.17%12.78%7.22%3.06%1.11%0.28%33.61%
25.83%7.22%4.44%1.67%1.11%0.28%20.56%
33.61%3.06%1.67%1.11%0.83%—10.28%
41.39%1.11%1.11%0.83%——4.44%
5+1.11%0.28%0.28%———1.67%
Total29.44%33.61%20.56%10.28%4.44%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.82
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%2.78%11.11%——36.11%
111.11%8.33%16.67%———36.11%
22.78%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
32.78%5.56%——2.78%—11.11%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%33.33%25.00%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.39 -0.31
SD 1.11 1.15 1.55
CV 1.02 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%13.89%—2.78%——33.33%
12.78%16.67%8.33%2.78%——30.56%
28.33%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—19.44%
35.56%——2.78%——8.33%
45.56%2.78%————8.33%
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.97 +0.31
SD 1.26 1.06 1.65
CV 0.98 1.09 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%19.44%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
22.78%8.33%2.78%———13.89%
35.56%8.33%5.56%———19.44%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%44.44%22.22%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.17 +0.17
SD 1.17 0.97 1.63
CV 0.88 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—8.33%2.78%2.78%—25.00%
111.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
25.56%8.33%2.78%—2.78%—19.44%
32.78%2.78%2.78%5.56%——13.89%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total44.44%22.22%16.67%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.11 +0.83
SD 1.74 1.26 2.37
CV 0.89 1.13 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%—2.78%—2.78%22.22%
113.89%16.67%5.56%2.78%2.78%—41.67%
22.78%11.11%5.56%—2.78%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%——2.78%—13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.56%41.67%11.11%5.56%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.31 -0.03
SD 0.97 1.43 1.75
CV 0.76 1.10 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%——25.00%
18.33%22.22%5.56%8.33%2.78%—47.22%
25.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%36.11%19.44%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.28 -0.14
SD 0.93 1.11 1.48
CV 0.82 0.87 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%13.89%—5.56%2.78%33.33%
15.56%11.11%5.56%2.78%—2.78%27.78%
25.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
3—5.56%2.78%—2.78%—11.11%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total19.44%27.78%33.33%5.56%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.75 -0.44
SD 1.28 1.46 2.01
CV 0.98 0.84 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%8.33%8.33%5.56%5.56%44.44%
18.33%16.67%2.78%———27.78%
211.11%—8.33%———19.44%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%27.78%19.44%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.50 -0.56
SD 1.07 1.46 2.09
CV 1.13 0.98 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%8.33%5.56%——30.56%
111.11%13.89%5.56%5.56%2.78%—38.89%
22.78%5.56%5.56%8.33%—2.78%25.00%
3———————
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%30.56%22.22%19.44%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.58 -0.47
SD 1.04 1.27 1.50
CV 0.93 0.80 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
18.33%8.33%11.11%———27.78%
211.11%13.89%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
32.78%2.78%—2.78%——8.33%
4——2.78%5.56%——8.33%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total30.56%33.33%25.00%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.17 +0.64
SD 1.37 1.00 1.55
CV 0.76 0.86 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Gretna 1616 66 66.21 -0.21 49.0% 41 53 62 67 72 76 87
St. Johnstone 1609 65 61.64 +3.36 64.0% 38 47 56 62 68 73 78
Clyde 1556 47 53.92 -6.92 21.0% 35 40 48 55 60 64 72
Hamilton Academical 1538 53 55.47 -2.47 41.0% 39 44 50 56 60 66 72
Dundee 1500 53 44.64 +8.36 87.0% 29 33 40 44 49 55 65
Airdrie United 1494 40 47.96 -7.96 13.0% 32 37 42 47 53 61 65
Livingston 1465 45 45.27 -0.27 56.0% 26 33 41 45 50 58 70
Ross County 1462 37 43.56 -6.56 19.0% 21 31 39 44 47 56 64
Partick Thistle 1451 45 42.94 +2.06 58.0% 19 30 38 44 49 53 63
Queen of the South 1445 41 35.65 +5.35 79.0% 22 25 31 35 40 45 53

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+13.33%
Slight Edge
43.33%26.67%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 46.60 Elo pts.
199 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.23+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.6
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
54%
Gretna, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.03/gm
Photo Finish
00.200.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.01 * Some Luck: 6.01 to 9.02 * Lucky: 9.02 to 12.03 * Wild Swing: 12.03 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.8 * Off: 1.8 to 2.4 * Way Off: 2.4 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.34 * A Surprise: 1.34 to 2.14 * Several Surprises: 2.14 to 2.95 * Many Surprises: 2.95 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.21 points
As Expected
07.5219
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.503
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
87.00%
Dundee
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
13.00%
Airdrie United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
2 of 2
A Surprise
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.11
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 63.36
1.28
Coin-Flip Parity
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
73%
Even
50%77%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.52
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Strong Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.76
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.65
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1220.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Gretna54.00%29.00%8.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—2.00%——
St. Johnstone28.00%32.00%19.00%8.00%5.00%6.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Dundee1.00%—3.00%11.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%18.00%10.00%12.00%
Hamilton Academical8.00%16.00%27.00%11.00%18.00%7.00%9.00%2.00%2.00%—
Clyde8.00%12.00%25.00%20.00%11.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Livingston1.00%2.00%2.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%18.00%22.00%8.00%8.00%
Partick Thistle—1.00%1.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%22.00%15.00%
Queen of the South————3.00%4.00%7.00%13.00%22.00%51.00%
Airdrie United—5.00%13.00%13.00%12.00%16.00%14.00%13.00%12.00%2.00%
Ross County—3.00%2.00%9.00%5.00%19.00%13.00%17.00%21.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Gretna 54.00% 46.00% — —
St. Johnstone 28.00% 71.00% 1.00% —
Hamilton Academical 8.00% 90.00% 2.00% —
Clyde 8.00% 89.00% 2.00% 1.00%
Airdrie United — 86.00% 12.00% 2.00%
Livingston 1.00% 83.00% 8.00% 8.00%
Dundee 1.00% 77.00% 10.00% 12.00%
Ross County — 68.00% 21.00% 11.00%
Partick Thistle — 63.00% 22.00% 15.00%
Queen of the South — 27.00% 22.00% 51.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2006-08-05 Clyde D 0-062.5 1574 1536 48.64% 24.03% 27.33%+0.43 -0.5 1
2006-08-05 @ St. Johnstone D 0-062.5 1536 1574 27.33% 24.03% 48.64%-0.43 +0.6 1
2006-08-05 Hamilton Academical W 6-048.0 1604 1545 51.34% 23.44% 25.22%+0.53 +16.0 3
2006-08-05 @ Gretna L 0-648.0 1545 1604 25.22% 23.44% 51.34%-0.53 -16.0 0
2006-08-05 Partick Thistle L 0-149.7 1457 1478 40.40% 25.05% 34.56%+0.13 -4.5 0
2006-08-05 @ Dundee W 1-049.7 1478 1457 34.56% 25.05% 40.40%-0.13 +4.5 3
2006-08-05 Queen of the South W 2-042.1 1462 1445 45.70% 24.53% 29.77%+0.32 +6.7 3
2006-08-05 @ Livingston L 0-242.1 1445 1462 29.77% 24.53% 45.70%-0.32 -6.7 0
2006-08-05 Ross County L 0-251.8 1530 1506 46.76% 24.37% 28.87%+0.36 -9.5 0
2006-08-05 @ Airdrie United W 2-051.8 1506 1530 28.87% 24.37% 46.76%-0.36 +9.5 3
2006-08-12 Airdrie United W 4-257.4 1482 1521 37.90% 25.12% 36.98%+0.04 +6.1 6
2006-08-12 @ Partick Thistle L 2-457.4 1521 1482 36.98% 25.12% 37.90%-0.04 -6.2 0
2006-08-12 Dundee W 1-045.6 1529 1452 53.81% 22.78% 23.40%+0.62 +2.8 3
2006-08-12 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-145.6 1452 1529 23.40% 22.78% 53.81%-0.62 -2.8 0
2006-08-12 Livingston L 0-348.7 1515 1469 49.79% 23.79% 26.42%+0.47 -14.5 3
2006-08-12 @ Ross County W 3-048.7 1469 1515 26.42% 23.79% 49.79%-0.47 +14.5 6
2006-08-12 St. Johnstone L 0-147.8 1438 1573 25.89% 23.64% 50.46%-0.44 -3.1 0
2006-08-12 @ Queen of the South W 1-047.8 1573 1438 50.46% 23.64% 25.89%+0.44 +3.1 4
2006-08-13 Gretna L 1-260.3 1536 1620 31.75% 24.81% 43.44%-0.19 -3.5 1
2006-08-13 @ Clyde W 2-160.3 1620 1536 43.44% 24.81% 31.75%+0.19 +3.5 6
2006-08-19 Hamilton Academical D 0-062.5 1576 1532 49.44% 23.87% 26.69%+0.46 -0.6 5
2006-08-19 @ St. Johnstone D 0-062.5 1532 1576 26.69% 23.87% 49.44%-0.46 +0.6 4
2006-08-19 Partick Thistle D 2-267.7 1483 1488 42.62% 24.89% 32.49%+0.21 -0.2 7
2006-08-19 @ Livingston D 2-267.7 1488 1483 32.49% 24.89% 42.62%-0.21 +0.2 7
2006-08-19 Queen of the South D 2-267.6 1514 1435 54.06% 22.71% 23.22%+0.63 -0.5 1
2006-08-19 @ Airdrie United D 2-267.6 1435 1514 23.22% 22.71% 54.06%-0.63 +0.5 1
2006-08-19 Ross County W 2-154.6 1623 1501 59.54% 20.89% 19.57%+0.85 +2.2 9
2006-08-19 @ Gretna L 1-254.6 1501 1623 19.57% 20.89% 59.54%-0.85 -2.2 3
2006-08-20 Clyde W 3-047.0 1449 1533 31.80% 24.82% 43.38%-0.18 +13.0 3
2006-08-20 @ Dundee L 0-347.0 1533 1449 43.38% 24.82% 31.80%+0.18 -13.0 1
2006-08-26 Hamilton Academical L 1-259.5 1514 1533 40.67% 25.03% 34.30%+0.14 -4.3 1
2006-08-26 @ Airdrie United W 2-159.5 1533 1514 34.30% 25.03% 40.67%-0.14 +4.3 7
2006-08-26 Livingston L 0-150.1 1462 1483 40.46% 25.04% 34.50%+0.13 -4.5 3
2006-08-26 @ Dundee W 1-050.1 1483 1462 34.50% 25.04% 40.46%-0.13 +4.5 10
2006-08-26 Partick Thistle D 0-058.9 1520 1488 47.68% 24.21% 28.11%+0.39 -0.5 2
2006-08-26 @ Clyde D 0-058.9 1488 1520 28.11% 24.21% 47.68%-0.39 +0.5 8
2006-08-26 Ross County W 3-151.4 1576 1498 53.84% 22.78% 23.38%+0.62 +4.7 8
2006-08-26 @ St. Johnstone L 1-351.4 1498 1576 23.38% 22.78% 53.84%-0.62 -4.7 3
2006-08-27 Gretna L 0-342.2 1436 1625 20.84% 21.60% 57.56%-0.72 -7.0 1
2006-08-27 @ Queen of the South W 3-042.2 1625 1436 57.56% 21.60% 20.84%+0.72 +7.0 12
2006-09-09 Airdrie United W 3-045.0 1487 1510 40.22% 25.06% 34.72%+0.12 +11.0 13
2006-09-09 @ Livingston L 0-345.0 1510 1487 34.72% 25.06% 40.22%-0.12 -11.0 1
2006-09-09 Dundee L 0-455.4 1632 1458 65.62% 18.38% 16.00%+1.11 -23.6 12
2006-09-09 @ Gretna W 4-055.4 1458 1632 16.00% 18.38% 65.62%-1.11 +23.6 6
2006-09-09 Queen of the South W 1-044.0 1494 1429 52.21% 23.22% 24.57%+0.56 +3.0 6
2006-09-09 @ Ross County L 0-144.0 1429 1494 24.57% 23.22% 52.21%-0.56 -3.0 1
2006-09-09 St. Johnstone L 1-549.9 1489 1580 30.78% 24.69% 44.53%-0.23 -10.9 8
2006-09-09 @ Partick Thistle W 5-149.9 1580 1489 44.53% 24.69% 30.78%+0.23 +10.9 11
2006-09-16 Airdrie United W 1-049.0 1591 1499 55.81% 22.18% 22.01%+0.70 +2.7 14
2006-09-16 @ St. Johnstone L 0-149.0 1499 1591 22.01% 22.18% 55.81%-0.70 -2.7 1
2006-09-16 Livingston D 1-167.9 1609 1498 58.04% 21.44% 20.52%+0.79 -0.9 13
2006-09-16 @ Gretna D 1-167.9 1498 1609 20.52% 21.44% 58.04%-0.79 +0.9 14
2006-09-16 Partick Thistle L 1-261.1 1537 1478 51.44% 23.41% 25.15%+0.53 -5.1 7
2006-09-16 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-161.1 1478 1537 25.15% 23.41% 51.44%-0.53 +5.1 11
2006-09-16 Queen of the South W 2-149.4 1482 1426 50.99% 23.52% 25.49%+0.51 +2.9 9
2006-09-16 @ Dundee L 1-249.4 1426 1482 25.49% 23.52% 50.99%-0.51 -2.9 1
2006-09-16 Ross County W 3-043.9 1519 1497 46.48% 24.41% 29.11%+0.35 +9.5 5
2006-09-16 @ Clyde L 0-343.9 1497 1519 29.11% 24.41% 46.48%-0.35 -9.5 6
2006-09-23 Clyde L 0-243.4 1423 1529 29.09% 24.41% 46.51%-0.30 -6.5 1
2006-09-23 @ Queen of the South W 2-043.4 1529 1423 46.51% 24.41% 29.09%+0.30 +6.6 8
2006-09-23 Dundee L 0-152.6 1496 1484 44.96% 24.63% 30.41%+0.29 -4.9 1
2006-09-23 @ Airdrie United W 1-052.6 1484 1496 30.41% 24.63% 44.96%-0.29 +4.9 12
2006-09-23 Gretna L 0-646.8 1483 1608 26.95% 23.94% 49.11%-0.39 -17.0 11
2006-09-23 @ Partick Thistle W 6-046.8 1608 1483 49.11% 23.94% 26.95%+0.39 +17.0 16
2006-09-23 Hamilton Academical L 0-151.8 1487 1532 36.97% 25.12% 37.91%+0.01 -4.2 6
2006-09-23 @ Ross County W 1-051.8 1532 1487 37.91% 25.12% 36.97%-0.01 +4.2 10
2006-09-23 St. Johnstone D 1-166.5 1499 1594 30.39% 24.63% 44.98%-0.24 +0.3 15
2006-09-23 @ Livingston D 1-166.5 1594 1499 44.98% 24.63% 30.39%+0.24 -0.3 15
2006-09-30 Airdrie United L 0-257.6 1625 1491 60.91% 20.37% 18.72%+0.91 -11.8 16
2006-09-30 @ Gretna W 2-057.6 1491 1625 18.72% 20.37% 60.91%-0.91 +11.8 4
2006-09-30 Livingston D 1-164.6 1535 1500 48.29% 24.10% 27.61%+0.41 -0.5 9
2006-09-30 @ Clyde D 1-164.6 1500 1535 27.61% 24.10% 48.29%-0.41 +0.5 16
2006-09-30 Queen of the South D 1-162.5 1536 1416 59.18% 21.03% 19.79%+0.84 -1.0 11
2006-09-30 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-162.5 1416 1536 19.79% 21.03% 59.18%-0.84 +1.0 2
2006-09-30 Ross County W 3-258.9 1466 1483 40.99% 25.01% 34.00%+0.15 +3.5 14
2006-09-30 @ Partick Thistle L 2-358.9 1483 1466 34.00% 25.01% 40.99%-0.15 -3.5 6
2006-09-30 St. Johnstone D 1-166.2 1489 1594 29.24% 24.44% 46.32%-0.29 +0.4 13
2006-09-30 @ Dundee D 1-166.2 1594 1489 46.32% 24.44% 29.24%+0.29 -0.4 16
2006-10-13 Hamilton Academical L 0-152.8 1500 1535 38.36% 25.12% 36.52%+0.06 -4.3 16
2006-10-13 @ Livingston W 1-052.8 1535 1500 36.52% 25.12% 38.36%-0.06 +4.3 14
2006-10-14 Clyde W 2-157.8 1503 1535 38.81% 25.11% 36.08%+0.07 +3.9 7
2006-10-14 @ Airdrie United L 1-257.8 1535 1503 36.08% 25.11% 38.81%-0.07 -3.9 9
2006-10-14 Dundee W 1-048.8 1479 1490 41.91% 24.95% 33.14%+0.18 +3.9 9
2006-10-14 @ Ross County L 0-148.8 1490 1479 33.14% 24.95% 41.91%-0.18 -3.9 13
2006-10-14 Gretna D 3-379.0 1593 1613 40.52% 25.04% 34.44%+0.13 -0.1 17
2006-10-14 @ St. Johnstone D 3-379.0 1613 1593 34.44% 25.04% 40.52%-0.13 +0.1 17
2006-10-14 Partick Thistle L 0-243.4 1417 1470 35.90% 25.10% 38.99%-0.03 -7.8 2
2006-10-14 @ Queen of the South W 2-043.4 1470 1417 38.99% 25.10% 35.90%+0.03 +7.8 17
2006-10-17 Clyde W 3-154.1 1540 1531 44.59% 24.68% 30.73%+0.28 +6.0 17
2006-10-17 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-354.1 1531 1540 30.73% 24.68% 44.59%-0.28 -5.9 9
2006-10-21 Clyde D 3-378.1 1613 1525 55.27% 22.35% 22.37%+0.68 -0.5 18
2006-10-21 @ Gretna D 3-378.1 1525 1613 22.37% 22.35% 55.27%-0.68 +0.5 10
2006-10-21 Hamilton Academical D 1-164.2 1486 1546 34.90% 25.06% 40.04%-0.07 +0.1 14
2006-10-21 @ Dundee D 1-164.2 1546 1486 40.04% 25.06% 34.90%+0.07 -0.1 18
2006-10-21 Partick Thistle L 1-259.0 1507 1478 47.41% 24.26% 28.33%+0.38 -4.8 7
2006-10-21 @ Airdrie United W 2-159.0 1478 1507 28.33% 24.26% 47.41%-0.38 +4.8 20
2006-10-21 Queen of the South W 5-037.6 1593 1410 66.63% 17.92% 15.45%+1.16 +8.1 20
2006-10-21 @ St. Johnstone L 0-537.6 1410 1593 15.45% 17.92% 66.63%-1.16 -8.1 2
2006-10-21 Ross County D 0-057.7 1496 1483 45.11% 24.61% 30.28%+0.30 -0.4 17
2006-10-21 @ Livingston D 0-057.7 1483 1496 30.28% 24.61% 45.11%-0.30 +0.4 10
2006-10-28 Airdrie United W 2-155.3 1484 1502 40.79% 25.03% 34.18%+0.14 +3.7 13
2006-10-28 @ Ross County L 1-255.3 1502 1484 34.18% 25.03% 40.79%-0.14 -3.7 7
2006-10-28 Dundee W 3-150.8 1482 1486 42.85% 24.87% 32.28%+0.22 +6.2 23
2006-10-28 @ Partick Thistle L 1-350.8 1486 1482 32.28% 24.87% 42.85%-0.22 -6.2 14
2006-10-28 Gretna W 3-160.0 1545 1613 33.84% 25.00% 41.15%-0.10 +7.5 21
2006-10-28 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-360.0 1613 1545 41.15% 25.00% 33.84%+0.10 -7.5 18
2006-10-28 Livingston W 2-046.3 1402 1495 30.48% 24.64% 44.87%-0.24 +9.2 5
2006-10-28 @ Queen of the South L 0-246.3 1495 1402 44.87% 24.64% 30.48%+0.24 -9.2 17
2006-10-28 St. Johnstone W 1-057.1 1525 1601 32.74% 24.91% 42.35%-0.15 +4.7 13
2006-10-28 @ Clyde L 0-157.1 1601 1525 42.35% 24.91% 32.74%+0.15 -4.7 20
2006-11-04 Gretna L 1-353.2 1480 1605 26.85% 23.91% 49.23%-0.40 -5.3 14
2006-11-04 @ Dundee W 3-153.2 1605 1480 49.23% 23.91% 26.85%+0.40 +5.3 21
2006-11-04 Hamilton Academical W 2-159.1 1530 1553 40.12% 25.06% 34.82%+0.12 +3.8 16
2006-11-04 @ Clyde L 1-259.1 1553 1530 34.82% 25.06% 40.12%-0.12 -3.8 21
2006-11-04 Livingston L 0-152.8 1498 1486 45.03% 24.62% 30.35%+0.29 -4.9 7
2006-11-04 @ Airdrie United W 1-052.8 1486 1498 30.35% 24.62% 45.03%-0.29 +4.9 20
2006-11-04 Partick Thistle W 2-044.9 1597 1489 57.73% 21.54% 20.72%+0.78 +4.8 23
2006-11-04 @ St. Johnstone L 0-244.9 1489 1597 20.72% 21.54% 57.73%-0.78 -4.8 23
2006-11-04 Ross County W 2-045.7 1411 1487 32.64% 24.91% 42.46%-0.15 +8.8 8
2006-11-04 @ Queen of the South L 0-245.7 1487 1411 42.46% 24.91% 32.64%+0.15 -8.8 13
2006-11-11 Airdrie United W 2-154.3 1549 1493 51.02% 23.51% 25.46%+0.52 +2.9 24
2006-11-11 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-254.3 1493 1549 25.46% 23.51% 51.02%-0.52 -2.9 7
2006-11-11 Dundee L 2-362.9 1491 1475 45.68% 24.53% 29.79%+0.32 -4.4 20
2006-11-11 @ Livingston W 3-262.9 1475 1491 29.79% 24.53% 45.68%-0.32 +4.4 17
2006-11-11 Queen of the South W 5-038.4 1611 1420 67.46% 17.54% 15.00%+1.20 +7.8 24
2006-11-11 @ Gretna L 0-538.4 1420 1611 15.00% 17.54% 67.46%-1.20 -7.8 8
2006-11-18 Clyde D 1-163.5 1479 1534 35.51% 25.09% 39.40%-0.04 +0.1 14
2006-11-18 @ Ross County D 1-163.5 1534 1479 39.40% 25.09% 35.51%+0.04 -0.1 17
2006-11-18 Dundee W 2-045.1 1412 1479 33.89% 25.01% 41.10%-0.10 +8.6 11
2006-11-18 @ Queen of the South L 0-245.1 1479 1412 41.10% 25.01% 33.89%+0.10 -8.6 17
2006-11-18 Gretna L 1-256.8 1487 1618 26.20% 23.73% 50.07%-0.43 -3.0 20
2006-11-18 @ Livingston W 2-156.8 1618 1487 50.07% 23.73% 26.20%+0.43 +3.0 27
2006-11-18 Hamilton Academical W 3-156.1 1484 1552 33.74% 25.00% 41.26%-0.11 +7.5 26
2006-11-18 @ Partick Thistle L 1-356.1 1552 1484 41.26% 25.00% 33.74%+0.11 -7.5 24
2006-11-18 St. Johnstone W 2-162.8 1490 1601 28.46% 24.29% 47.25%-0.32 +4.8 10
2006-11-18 @ Airdrie United L 1-262.8 1601 1490 47.25% 24.29% 28.46%+0.32 -4.8 23
2006-11-22 Clyde D 1-163.9 1491 1534 37.30% 25.12% 37.57%+0.02 +0.0 27
2006-11-22 @ Partick Thistle D 1-163.9 1534 1491 37.57% 25.12% 37.30%-0.02 -0.0 18
2006-11-22 St. Johnstone D 2-271.8 1479 1596 27.70% 24.12% 48.18%-0.36 +0.3 15
2006-11-22 @ Ross County D 2-271.8 1596 1479 48.18% 24.12% 27.70%+0.36 -0.4 24
2006-11-25 Airdrie United W 1-049.2 1470 1495 39.85% 25.07% 35.08%+0.11 +4.0 20
2006-11-25 @ Dundee L 0-149.2 1495 1470 35.08% 25.07% 39.85%-0.11 -4.0 10
2006-11-25 Livingston L 1-264.9 1596 1484 58.29% 21.35% 20.36%+0.80 -5.7 24
2006-11-25 @ St. Johnstone W 2-164.9 1484 1596 20.36% 21.35% 58.29%-0.80 +5.7 23
2006-11-25 Partick Thistle W 4-042.8 1621 1491 60.45% 20.54% 19.00%+0.89 +8.2 30
2006-11-25 @ Gretna L 0-442.8 1491 1621 19.00% 20.54% 60.45%-0.89 -8.2 27
2006-11-25 Queen of the South W 4-037.7 1534 1420 58.39% 21.31% 20.30%+0.80 +8.8 21
2006-11-25 @ Clyde L 0-437.7 1420 1534 20.30% 21.31% 58.39%-0.80 -8.8 11
2006-11-25 Ross County D 0-059.8 1544 1479 52.29% 23.20% 24.51%+0.56 -0.7 25
2006-11-25 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-059.8 1479 1544 24.51% 23.20% 52.29%-0.56 +0.7 16
2006-12-02 Airdrie United D 0-060.0 1543 1491 50.44% 23.65% 25.91%+0.49 -0.6 22
2006-12-02 @ Clyde D 0-060.0 1491 1543 25.91% 23.65% 50.44%-0.49 +0.6 11
2006-12-02 Livingston D 1-164.7 1544 1489 50.83% 23.56% 25.61%+0.51 -0.6 26
2006-12-02 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-164.7 1489 1544 25.61% 23.56% 50.83%-0.51 +0.6 24
2006-12-02 Queen of the South D 1-159.9 1483 1412 53.07% 22.99% 23.94%+0.59 -0.7 28
2006-12-02 @ Partick Thistle D 1-159.9 1412 1483 23.94% 22.99% 53.07%-0.59 +0.7 12
2006-12-02 Ross County W 3-150.4 1474 1480 42.60% 24.89% 32.51%+0.21 +6.2 23
2006-12-02 @ Dundee L 1-350.4 1480 1474 32.51% 24.89% 42.60%-0.21 -6.2 16
2006-12-02 St. Johnstone W 2-051.3 1630 1590 48.79% 24.00% 27.21%+0.43 +6.2 33
2006-12-02 @ Gretna L 0-251.3 1590 1630 27.21% 24.00% 48.79%-0.43 -6.2 24
2006-12-09 Clyde D 1-164.2 1490 1542 35.96% 25.10% 38.94%-0.03 +0.1 25
2006-12-09 @ Livingston D 1-164.2 1542 1490 38.94% 25.10% 35.96%+0.03 -0.1 23
2006-12-09 Dundee W 2-153.3 1584 1481 57.19% 21.73% 21.08%+0.76 +2.4 27
2006-12-09 @ St. Johnstone L 1-253.3 1481 1584 21.08% 21.73% 57.19%-0.76 -2.4 23
2006-12-09 Gretna W 4-265.6 1492 1636 24.93% 23.34% 51.73%-0.49 +8.0 14
2006-12-09 @ Airdrie United L 2-465.6 1636 1492 51.73% 23.34% 24.93%+0.49 -8.0 33
2006-12-09 Hamilton Academical D 1-161.7 1412 1543 26.29% 23.76% 49.95%-0.42 +0.5 13
2006-12-09 @ Queen of the South D 1-161.7 1543 1412 49.95% 23.76% 26.29%+0.42 -0.6 27
2006-12-09 Partick Thistle L 2-553.2 1474 1482 42.13% 24.93% 32.94%+0.19 -9.3 16
2006-12-09 @ Ross County W 5-253.2 1482 1474 32.94% 24.93% 42.13%-0.19 +9.3 31
2006-12-16 Airdrie United D 1-159.9 1413 1500 31.35% 24.76% 43.89%-0.20 +0.3 14
2006-12-16 @ Queen of the South D 1-159.9 1500 1413 43.89% 24.76% 31.35%+0.20 -0.3 15
2006-12-16 Dundee W 2-153.2 1542 1478 52.06% 23.26% 24.68%+0.55 +2.8 26
2006-12-16 @ Clyde L 1-253.2 1478 1542 24.68% 23.26% 52.06%-0.55 -2.8 23
2006-12-16 Gretna L 0-149.5 1464 1628 23.08% 22.66% 54.26%-0.59 -2.8 16
2006-12-16 @ Ross County W 1-049.5 1628 1464 54.26% 22.66% 23.08%+0.59 +2.8 36
2006-12-16 Livingston L 2-362.9 1492 1490 43.59% 24.80% 31.62%+0.24 -4.3 31
2006-12-16 @ Partick Thistle W 3-262.9 1490 1492 31.62% 24.80% 43.59%-0.24 +4.3 28
2006-12-16 St. Johnstone D 2-273.2 1543 1587 37.07% 25.12% 37.81%+0.01 +0.0 28
2006-12-16 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-273.2 1587 1543 37.81% 25.12% 37.07%-0.01 -0.0 28
2006-12-23 Hamilton Academical W 1-051.6 1631 1543 55.22% 22.37% 22.41%+0.68 +2.7 39
2006-12-23 @ Gretna L 0-151.6 1543 1631 22.41% 22.37% 55.22%-0.68 -2.7 28
2006-12-23 Queen of the South L 0-152.2 1494 1413 54.34% 22.63% 23.03%+0.64 -5.7 28
2006-12-23 @ Livingston W 1-052.2 1413 1494 23.03% 22.63% 54.34%-0.64 +5.7 17
2006-12-26 Clyde W 2-157.9 1587 1545 49.17% 23.93% 26.91%+0.45 +3.1 31
2006-12-26 @ St. Johnstone L 1-257.9 1545 1587 26.91% 23.93% 49.17%-0.45 -3.1 26
2006-12-26 Partick Thistle W 3-151.0 1475 1487 41.67% 24.97% 33.36%+0.17 +6.4 26
2006-12-26 @ Dundee L 1-351.0 1487 1475 33.36% 24.97% 41.67%-0.17 -6.3 31
2006-12-26 Ross County L 0-152.8 1499 1461 48.61% 24.04% 27.35%+0.43 -5.2 15
2006-12-26 @ Airdrie United W 1-052.8 1461 1499 27.35% 24.04% 48.61%-0.43 +5.2 19
2006-12-30 Airdrie United L 1-354.5 1489 1494 42.57% 24.89% 32.53%+0.21 -7.6 28
2006-12-30 @ Livingston W 3-154.5 1494 1489 32.53% 24.89% 42.57%-0.21 +7.7 18
2006-12-30 Clyde D 1-166.0 1540 1542 43.12% 24.84% 32.04%+0.23 -0.2 29
2006-12-30 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-166.0 1542 1540 32.04% 24.84% 43.12%-0.23 +0.2 27
2006-12-30 Dundee W 1-047.6 1633 1482 63.01% 19.51% 17.48%+1.00 +2.1 42
2006-12-30 @ Gretna L 0-147.6 1482 1633 17.48% 19.51% 63.01%-1.00 -2.1 26
2006-12-30 Queen of the South W 1-043.4 1467 1419 49.95% 23.76% 26.29%+0.48 +3.2 22
2006-12-30 @ Ross County L 0-143.4 1419 1467 26.29% 23.76% 49.95%-0.48 -3.2 17
2007-01-02 Gretna L 0-440.4 1416 1636 18.52% 20.23% 61.25%-0.87 -8.0 17
2007-01-02 @ Queen of the South W 4-040.4 1636 1416 61.25% 20.23% 18.52%+0.87 +8.0 45
2007-01-02 Hamilton Academical W 1-052.6 1502 1540 37.97% 25.12% 36.91%+0.04 +4.2 21
2007-01-02 @ Airdrie United L 0-152.6 1540 1502 36.91% 25.12% 37.97%-0.04 -4.2 29
2007-01-02 Livingston W 2-044.7 1480 1481 43.17% 24.84% 31.99%+0.23 +7.1 29
2007-01-02 @ Dundee L 0-244.7 1481 1480 31.99% 24.84% 43.17%-0.23 -7.1 28
2007-01-02 Partick Thistle W 2-044.5 1542 1481 51.69% 23.35% 24.96%+0.54 +5.7 30
2007-01-02 @ Clyde L 0-244.5 1481 1542 24.96% 23.35% 51.69%-0.54 -5.7 31
2007-01-02 Ross County W 2-152.5 1590 1470 59.20% 21.02% 19.78%+0.84 +2.3 34
2007-01-02 @ St. Johnstone L 1-252.5 1470 1590 19.78% 21.02% 59.20%-0.84 -2.3 22
2007-01-13 Gretna D 2-273.7 1475 1644 22.66% 22.48% 54.86%-0.61 +0.6 32
2007-01-13 @ Partick Thistle D 2-273.7 1644 1475 54.86% 22.48% 22.66%+0.61 -0.6 46
2007-01-13 St. Johnstone W 3-267.2 1474 1592 27.66% 24.11% 48.23%-0.36 +4.6 31
2007-01-13 @ Livingston L 2-367.2 1592 1474 48.23% 24.11% 27.66%+0.36 -4.6 34
2007-01-20 Airdrie United W 4-362.7 1587 1506 54.36% 22.63% 23.01%+0.64 +2.4 37
2007-01-20 @ St. Johnstone L 3-462.7 1506 1587 23.01% 22.63% 54.36%-0.64 -2.5 21
2007-01-20 Livingston W 4-147.1 1643 1478 64.49% 18.88% 16.63%+1.06 +4.6 49
2007-01-20 @ Gretna L 1-447.1 1478 1643 16.63% 18.88% 64.49%-1.06 -4.6 31
2007-01-20 Partick Thistle W 2-153.0 1535 1476 51.52% 23.39% 25.09%+0.53 +2.9 32
2007-01-20 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-253.0 1476 1535 25.09% 23.39% 51.52%-0.53 -2.9 32
2007-01-20 Queen of the South W 1-042.5 1487 1408 54.07% 22.71% 23.22%+0.63 +2.8 32
2007-01-20 @ Dundee L 0-142.5 1408 1487 23.22% 22.71% 54.07%-0.63 -2.8 17
2007-01-20 Ross County L 2-462.3 1548 1468 54.19% 22.68% 23.13%+0.64 -8.3 30
2007-01-20 @ Clyde W 4-262.3 1468 1548 23.13% 22.68% 54.19%-0.64 +8.3 25
2007-01-27 Clyde W 1-052.6 1504 1539 38.28% 25.12% 36.61%+0.05 +4.2 24
2007-01-27 @ Airdrie United L 0-152.6 1539 1504 36.61% 25.12% 38.28%-0.05 -4.2 30
2007-01-27 Dundee D 0-057.1 1476 1490 41.43% 24.99% 33.59%+0.17 -0.2 26
2007-01-27 @ Ross County D 0-057.1 1490 1476 33.59% 24.99% 41.43%-0.17 +0.2 33
2007-01-27 Gretna W 2-164.6 1590 1648 35.16% 25.08% 39.77%-0.06 +4.2 40
2007-01-27 @ St. Johnstone L 1-264.6 1648 1590 39.77% 25.08% 35.16%+0.06 -4.2 49
2007-01-27 Hamilton Academical L 1-256.3 1474 1538 34.25% 25.03% 40.72%-0.09 -3.7 31
2007-01-27 @ Livingston W 2-156.3 1538 1474 40.72% 25.03% 34.25%+0.09 +3.7 35
2007-01-27 Partick Thistle W 4-361.2 1405 1473 33.75% 25.00% 41.26%-0.11 +4.0 20
2007-01-27 @ Queen of the South L 3-461.2 1473 1405 41.26% 25.00% 33.75%+0.11 -4.0 32
2007-02-03 Dundee L 0-348.2 1508 1490 45.88% 24.50% 29.61%+0.33 -13.6 24
2007-02-03 @ Airdrie United W 3-048.2 1490 1508 29.61% 24.50% 45.88%-0.33 +13.6 36
2007-02-10 Airdrie United D 0-064.7 1643 1494 62.72% 19.64% 17.65%+0.99 -1.2 50
2007-02-10 @ Gretna D 0-064.7 1494 1643 17.65% 19.64% 62.72%-0.99 +1.2 25
2007-02-10 Livingston L 0-155.3 1535 1470 52.23% 23.22% 24.56%+0.56 -5.5 30
2007-02-10 @ Clyde W 1-055.3 1470 1535 24.56% 23.22% 52.23%-0.56 +5.5 34
2007-02-10 Queen of the South D 2-268.3 1542 1409 60.82% 20.40% 18.77%+0.91 -0.8 36
2007-02-10 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-268.3 1409 1542 18.77% 20.40% 60.82%-0.91 +0.8 21
2007-02-10 Ross County D 1-161.0 1469 1476 42.42% 24.91% 32.68%+0.20 -0.2 33
2007-02-10 @ Partick Thistle D 1-161.0 1476 1469 32.68% 24.91% 42.42%-0.20 +0.2 27
2007-02-10 St. Johnstone W 2-162.3 1503 1594 30.87% 24.70% 44.43%-0.22 +4.6 39
2007-02-10 @ Dundee L 1-262.3 1594 1503 44.43% 24.70% 30.87%+0.22 -4.6 40
2007-02-17 Clyde L 1-453.2 1508 1530 40.28% 25.05% 34.66%+0.13 -10.4 39
2007-02-17 @ Dundee W 4-153.2 1530 1508 34.66% 25.05% 40.28%-0.13 +10.4 33
2007-02-17 Hamilton Academical W 4-258.2 1589 1541 49.99% 23.75% 26.26%+0.48 +4.6 43
2007-02-17 @ St. Johnstone L 2-458.2 1541 1589 26.26% 23.75% 49.99%-0.48 -4.6 36
2007-02-17 Partick Thistle L 0-151.1 1476 1469 44.33% 24.71% 30.96%+0.27 -4.8 34
2007-02-17 @ Livingston W 1-051.1 1469 1476 30.96% 24.71% 44.33%-0.27 +4.8 36
2007-02-17 Queen of the South L 0-347.0 1495 1410 54.94% 22.45% 22.61%+0.67 -15.7 25
2007-02-17 @ Airdrie United W 3-047.0 1410 1495 22.61% 22.45% 54.94%-0.67 +15.7 24
2007-02-17 Ross County W 4-147.0 1642 1476 64.69% 18.79% 16.52%+1.07 +4.6 53
2007-02-17 @ Gretna L 1-447.0 1476 1642 16.52% 18.79% 64.69%-1.07 -4.6 27
2007-02-24 Dundee W 1-049.1 1537 1498 48.77% 24.00% 27.22%+0.43 +3.3 39
2007-02-24 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-149.1 1498 1537 27.22% 24.00% 48.77%-0.43 -3.3 39
2007-02-24 Gretna W 2-056.5 1540 1647 28.95% 24.38% 46.67%-0.30 +9.5 36
2007-02-24 @ Clyde L 0-256.5 1647 1540 46.67% 24.38% 28.95%+0.30 -9.5 53
2007-02-24 Livingston L 0-247.5 1471 1471 43.44% 24.81% 31.75%+0.24 -9.0 27
2007-02-24 @ Ross County W 2-047.5 1471 1471 31.75% 24.81% 43.44%-0.24 +9.0 37
2007-03-03 Airdrie United W 3-042.5 1540 1480 51.61% 23.37% 25.02%+0.54 +8.3 42
2007-03-03 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-342.5 1480 1540 25.02% 23.37% 51.61%-0.54 -8.3 25
2007-03-03 Clyde L 0-445.1 1474 1549 32.74% 24.91% 42.35%-0.15 -13.7 36
2007-03-03 @ Partick Thistle W 4-045.1 1549 1474 42.35% 24.91% 32.74%+0.15 +13.7 39
2007-03-03 Dundee L 1-353.8 1480 1494 41.31% 24.99% 33.69%+0.16 -7.5 37
2007-03-03 @ Livingston W 3-153.8 1494 1480 33.69% 24.99% 41.31%-0.16 +7.5 42
2007-03-03 Queen of the South L 0-355.4 1637 1425 69.71% 16.46% 13.82%+1.30 -18.9 53
2007-03-03 @ Gretna W 3-055.4 1425 1637 13.82% 16.46% 69.71%-1.30 +18.9 27
2007-03-03 St. Johnstone D 1-165.5 1462 1594 26.20% 23.73% 50.07%-0.43 +0.6 28
2007-03-03 @ Ross County D 1-165.5 1594 1462 50.07% 23.73% 26.20%+0.43 -0.6 44
2007-03-06 St. Johnstone W 1-056.6 1444 1594 24.42% 23.17% 52.41%-0.52 +5.5 30
2007-03-06 @ Queen of the South L 0-156.6 1594 1444 52.41% 23.17% 24.42%+0.52 -5.5 44
2007-03-10 Hamilton Academical W 3-047.5 1563 1548 45.45% 24.57% 29.98%+0.31 +9.8 42
2007-03-10 @ Clyde L 0-347.5 1548 1563 29.98% 24.57% 45.45%-0.31 -9.8 42
2007-03-10 Livingston W 3-149.8 1471 1472 43.22% 24.83% 31.94%+0.23 +6.1 28
2007-03-10 @ Airdrie United L 1-349.8 1472 1471 31.94% 24.83% 43.22%-0.23 -6.1 37
2007-03-10 Partick Thistle W 2-042.8 1588 1460 60.20% 20.64% 19.15%+0.88 +4.4 47
2007-03-10 @ St. Johnstone L 0-242.8 1460 1588 19.15% 20.64% 60.20%-0.88 -4.4 36
2007-03-10 Ross County W 2-043.5 1450 1463 41.49% 24.98% 33.53%+0.17 +7.4 33
2007-03-10 @ Queen of the South L 0-243.5 1463 1450 33.53% 24.98% 41.49%-0.17 -7.4 28
2007-03-11 Gretna L 0-152.3 1502 1618 27.83% 24.15% 48.02%-0.35 -3.3 42
2007-03-11 @ Dundee W 1-052.3 1618 1502 48.02% 24.15% 27.83%+0.35 +3.3 56
2007-03-13 Hamilton Academical W 4-152.4 1456 1538 31.83% 24.82% 43.35%-0.18 +11.0 31
2007-03-13 @ Ross County L 1-452.4 1538 1456 43.35% 24.82% 31.83%+0.18 -11.0 42
2007-03-13 St. Johnstone W 2-053.2 1456 1592 25.67% 23.58% 50.76%-0.45 +10.2 39
2007-03-13 @ Partick Thistle L 0-253.2 1592 1456 50.76% 23.58% 25.67%+0.45 -10.2 47
2007-03-17 Clyde D 2-270.4 1467 1573 28.99% 24.39% 46.62%-0.30 +0.3 32
2007-03-17 @ Ross County D 2-270.4 1573 1467 46.62% 24.39% 28.99%+0.30 -0.3 43
2007-03-17 Dundee D 2-267.1 1457 1498 37.46% 25.12% 37.41%+0.03 +0.0 34
2007-03-17 @ Queen of the South D 2-267.1 1498 1457 37.41% 25.12% 37.46%-0.03 +0.0 43
2007-03-17 Gretna D 1-166.8 1466 1622 23.84% 22.95% 53.21%-0.55 +0.7 38
2007-03-17 @ Livingston D 1-166.8 1622 1466 53.21% 22.95% 23.84%+0.55 -0.7 57
2007-03-17 Hamilton Academical L 0-246.8 1466 1528 34.60% 25.05% 40.35%-0.08 -7.5 39
2007-03-17 @ Partick Thistle W 2-046.8 1528 1466 40.35% 25.05% 34.60%+0.08 +7.5 45
2007-03-17 St. Johnstone L 1-256.4 1477 1582 29.18% 24.43% 46.39%-0.29 -3.3 28
2007-03-17 @ Airdrie United W 2-156.4 1582 1477 46.39% 24.43% 29.18%+0.29 +3.3 50
2007-03-25 Airdrie United L 0-149.8 1458 1474 41.09% 25.01% 33.91%+0.15 -4.6 39
2007-03-25 @ Partick Thistle W 1-049.8 1474 1458 33.91% 25.01% 41.09%-0.15 +4.6 31
2007-03-25 Clyde D 0-059.7 1457 1573 27.95% 24.17% 47.88%-0.35 +0.5 35
2007-03-25 @ Queen of the South D 0-059.7 1573 1457 47.88% 24.17% 27.95%+0.35 -0.5 44
2007-03-25 Dundee W 2-045.6 1586 1498 55.10% 22.40% 22.49%+0.67 +5.2 53
2007-03-25 @ St. Johnstone L 0-245.6 1498 1586 22.49% 22.40% 55.10%-0.67 -5.2 43
2007-03-31 Livingston L 1-264.4 1591 1467 59.68% 20.84% 19.48%+0.86 -5.8 53
2007-03-31 @ St. Johnstone W 2-164.4 1467 1591 19.48% 20.84% 59.68%-0.86 +5.8 41
2007-03-31 Partick Thistle W 2-042.4 1621 1454 64.82% 18.74% 16.44%+1.08 +3.7 60
2007-03-31 @ Gretna L 0-242.4 1454 1621 16.44% 18.74% 64.82%-1.08 -3.7 39
2007-03-31 Queen of the South L 0-157.5 1572 1458 58.55% 21.26% 20.20%+0.81 -6.0 44
2007-03-31 @ Clyde W 1-057.5 1458 1572 20.20% 21.26% 58.55%-0.81 +6.0 38
2007-03-31 Ross County W 1-046.7 1535 1467 52.66% 23.10% 24.24%+0.58 +3.0 48
2007-03-31 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-146.7 1467 1535 24.24% 23.10% 52.66%-0.58 -2.9 32
2007-04-01 Airdrie United W 2-153.4 1493 1479 45.39% 24.57% 30.04%+0.31 +3.4 46
2007-04-01 @ Dundee L 1-253.4 1479 1493 30.04% 24.57% 45.39%-0.31 -3.4 31
2007-04-03 Hamilton Academical D 1-163.1 1464 1538 32.93% 24.93% 42.14%-0.14 +0.2 39
2007-04-03 @ Queen of the South D 1-163.1 1538 1464 42.14% 24.93% 32.93%+0.14 -0.2 49
2007-04-03 Partick Thistle W 2-151.4 1464 1450 45.33% 24.58% 30.09%+0.31 +3.4 35
2007-04-03 @ Ross County L 1-251.4 1450 1464 30.09% 24.58% 45.33%-0.31 -3.4 39
2007-04-04 Clyde D 0-059.9 1473 1566 30.53% 24.65% 44.82%-0.24 +0.4 42
2007-04-04 @ Livingston D 0-059.9 1566 1473 44.82% 24.65% 30.53%+0.24 -0.4 45
2007-04-04 Gretna D 0-062.5 1475 1625 24.43% 23.17% 52.40%-0.52 +0.7 32
2007-04-04 @ Airdrie United D 0-062.5 1625 1475 52.40% 23.17% 24.43%+0.52 -0.7 61
2007-04-07 Airdrie United L 0-157.3 1566 1476 55.42% 22.31% 22.27%+0.69 -5.8 45
2007-04-07 @ Clyde W 1-057.3 1476 1566 22.27% 22.31% 55.42%-0.69 +5.8 35
2007-04-07 Livingston W 3-042.0 1538 1473 52.20% 23.22% 24.57%+0.56 +8.2 52
2007-04-07 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-342.0 1473 1538 24.57% 23.22% 52.20%-0.56 -8.2 42
2007-04-07 Queen of the South D 0-055.1 1446 1464 40.91% 25.02% 34.08%+0.15 -0.2 40
2007-04-07 @ Partick Thistle D 0-055.1 1464 1446 34.08% 25.02% 40.91%-0.15 +0.2 40
2007-04-07 Ross County W 3-257.5 1497 1467 47.44% 24.25% 28.31%+0.38 +3.0 49
2007-04-07 @ Dundee L 2-357.5 1467 1497 28.31% 24.25% 47.44%-0.38 -3.0 35
2007-04-07 St. Johnstone L 0-257.5 1624 1585 48.76% 24.01% 27.23%+0.43 -9.8 61
2007-04-07 @ Gretna W 2-057.5 1585 1624 27.23% 24.01% 48.76%-0.43 +9.8 56
2007-04-14 Airdrie United D 1-161.0 1464 1482 40.86% 25.02% 34.12%+0.15 -0.2 36
2007-04-14 @ Ross County D 1-161.0 1482 1464 34.12% 25.02% 40.86%-0.15 +0.1 36
2007-04-14 Dundee W 2-155.3 1446 1500 35.77% 25.10% 39.13%-0.03 +4.1 43
2007-04-14 @ Partick Thistle L 1-255.3 1500 1446 39.13% 25.10% 35.77%+0.03 -4.1 49
2007-04-14 Gretna D 0-063.7 1546 1614 33.76% 25.00% 41.25%-0.11 +0.2 53
2007-04-14 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-063.7 1614 1546 41.25% 25.00% 33.76%+0.11 -0.2 62
2007-04-14 Livingston D 1-160.5 1464 1465 43.24% 24.83% 31.93%+0.23 -0.3 41
2007-04-14 @ Queen of the South D 1-160.5 1465 1464 31.93% 24.83% 43.24%-0.23 +0.3 43
2007-04-17 St. Johnstone L 0-156.8 1560 1595 38.40% 25.11% 36.48%+0.06 -4.3 45
2007-04-17 @ Clyde W 1-056.8 1595 1560 36.48% 25.11% 38.40%-0.06 +4.3 59
2007-04-21 Clyde D 0-064.4 1614 1556 51.35% 23.44% 25.22%+0.53 -0.7 63
2007-04-21 @ Gretna D 0-064.4 1556 1614 25.22% 23.44% 51.35%-0.53 +0.7 46
2007-04-21 Hamilton Academical W 1-053.2 1495 1546 36.13% 25.11% 38.76%-0.02 +4.4 52
2007-04-21 @ Dundee L 0-153.2 1546 1495 38.76% 25.11% 36.13%+0.02 -4.4 53
2007-04-21 Partick Thistle D 1-160.8 1482 1450 47.75% 24.20% 28.05%+0.39 -0.5 37
2007-04-21 @ Airdrie United D 1-160.8 1450 1482 28.05% 24.20% 47.75%-0.39 +0.5 44
2007-04-21 Queen of the South W 3-041.2 1599 1464 61.08% 20.30% 18.62%+0.92 +6.2 62
2007-04-21 @ St. Johnstone L 0-341.2 1464 1599 18.62% 20.30% 61.08%-0.92 -6.2 41
2007-04-21 Ross County D 1-160.5 1465 1464 43.51% 24.80% 31.69%+0.24 -0.3 44
2007-04-21 @ Livingston D 1-160.5 1464 1465 31.69% 24.80% 43.51%-0.24 +0.3 37
2007-04-28 Airdrie United L 0-344.5 1458 1482 39.95% 25.07% 34.98%+0.11 -12.2 41
2007-04-28 @ Queen of the South W 3-044.5 1482 1458 34.98% 25.07% 39.95%-0.11 +12.2 40
2007-04-28 Dundee D 1-165.5 1556 1500 51.10% 23.50% 25.40%+0.52 -0.6 47
2007-04-28 @ Clyde D 1-165.5 1500 1556 25.40% 23.50% 51.10%-0.52 +0.6 53
2007-04-28 Gretna L 2-360.2 1464 1613 24.47% 23.19% 52.34%-0.51 -2.7 37
2007-04-28 @ Ross County W 3-260.2 1613 1464 52.34% 23.19% 24.47%+0.51 +2.7 66
2007-04-28 Livingston D 0-055.3 1451 1465 41.39% 24.99% 33.62%+0.16 -0.2 45
2007-04-28 @ Partick Thistle D 0-055.3 1465 1451 33.62% 24.99% 41.39%-0.16 +0.2 45
2007-04-28 St. Johnstone L 3-468.5 1542 1605 34.38% 25.04% 40.58%-0.08 -3.5 53
2007-04-28 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-368.5 1605 1542 40.58% 25.04% 34.38%+0.08 +3.5 65

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2007-03-03 13.82% Queen of the South 1425 3 @ Gretna 1637 0
2 2006-09-09 16.00% Dundee 1458 4 @ Gretna 1632 0
3 2006-09-30 18.72% Airdrie United 1491 2 @ Gretna 1625 0
4 2007-03-31 19.48% Livingston 1467 2 @ St. Johnstone 1591 1
5 2007-03-31 20.20% Queen of the South 1458 1 @ Clyde 1572 0
6 2006-11-25 20.36% Livingston 1484 2 @ St. Johnstone 1596 1
7 2007-04-07 22.27% Airdrie United 1476 1 @ Clyde 1566 0
8 2007-02-17 22.61% Queen of the South 1410 3 @ Airdrie United 1495 0
9 2006-12-23 23.03% Queen of the South 1413 1 @ Livingston 1494 0
10 2007-01-20 23.13% Ross County 1468 4 @ Clyde 1548 2
11 2007-03-06 24.42% @ Queen of the South 1444 1 St. Johnstone 1594 0
12 2007-02-10 24.56% Livingston 1470 1 @ Clyde 1535 0
13 2006-12-09 24.93% @ Airdrie United 1492 4 Gretna 1636 2
14 2006-09-16 25.15% Partick Thistle 1478 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1537 1
15 2007-03-13 25.67% @ Partick Thistle 1456 2 St. Johnstone 1592 0
16 2006-08-12 26.42% Livingston 1469 3 @ Ross County 1515 0
17 2007-04-07 27.23% St. Johnstone 1585 2 @ Gretna 1624 0
18 2006-12-26 27.35% Ross County 1461 1 @ Airdrie United 1499 0
19 2007-01-13 27.66% @ Livingston 1474 3 St. Johnstone 1592 2
20 2006-10-21 28.33% Partick Thistle 1478 2 @ Airdrie United 1507 1
21 2006-11-18 28.46% @ Airdrie United 1490 2 St. Johnstone 1601 1
22 2006-08-05 28.87% Ross County 1506 2 @ Airdrie United 1530 0
23 2007-02-24 28.95% @ Clyde 1540 2 Gretna 1647 0
24 2007-02-03 29.61% Dundee 1490 3 @ Airdrie United 1508 0
25 2006-11-11 29.79% Dundee 1475 3 @ Livingston 1491 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-09-09 23.60 Dundee 4 1458 16.00% @ Gretna 0 1632 65.62% 18.38%
2 2007-03-03 18.89 Queen of the South 3 1425 13.82% @ Gretna 0 1637 69.71% 16.46%
3 2006-09-23 17.03 Gretna 6 1608 49.11% @ Partick Thistle 0 1483 26.95% 23.94%
4 2006-08-05 16.04 @ Gretna 6 1604 51.34% Hamilton Academical 0 1545 25.22% 23.44%
5 2007-02-17 15.72 Queen of the South 3 1410 22.61% @ Airdrie United 0 1495 54.94% 22.45%
6 2006-08-12 14.53 Livingston 3 1469 26.42% @ Ross County 0 1515 49.79% 23.79%
7 2007-03-03 13.71 Clyde 4 1549 42.35% @ Partick Thistle 0 1474 32.74% 24.91%
8 2007-02-03 13.62 Dundee 3 1490 29.61% @ Airdrie United 0 1508 45.88% 24.50%
9 2006-08-20 13.03 @ Dundee 3 1449 31.80% Clyde 0 1533 43.38% 24.82%
10 2007-04-28 12.23 Airdrie United 3 1482 34.98% @ Queen of the South 0 1458 39.95% 25.07%
11 2006-09-30 11.75 Airdrie United 2 1491 18.72% @ Gretna 0 1625 60.91% 20.37%
12 2006-09-09 10.99 @ Livingston 3 1487 40.22% Airdrie United 0 1510 34.72% 25.06%
13 2007-03-13 10.98 @ Ross County 4 1456 31.83% Hamilton Academical 1 1538 43.35% 24.82%
14 2006-09-09 10.86 St. Johnstone 5 1580 44.53% @ Partick Thistle 1 1489 30.78% 24.69%
15 2007-02-17 10.37 Clyde 4 1530 34.66% @ Dundee 1 1508 40.28% 25.05%
16 2007-03-13 10.16 @ Partick Thistle 2 1456 25.67% St. Johnstone 0 1592 50.76% 23.58%
17 2007-04-07 9.84 St. Johnstone 2 1585 27.23% @ Gretna 0 1624 48.76% 24.01%
18 2007-03-10 9.77 @ Clyde 3 1563 45.45% Hamilton Academical 0 1548 29.98% 24.57%
19 2006-09-16 9.52 @ Clyde 3 1519 46.48% Ross County 0 1497 29.11% 24.41%
20 2006-08-05 9.51 Ross County 2 1506 28.87% @ Airdrie United 0 1530 46.76% 24.37%
21 2007-02-24 9.50 @ Clyde 2 1540 28.95% Gretna 0 1647 46.67% 24.38%
22 2006-12-09 9.30 Partick Thistle 5 1482 32.94% @ Ross County 2 1474 42.13% 24.93%
23 2006-10-28 9.21 @ Queen of the South 2 1402 30.48% Livingston 0 1495 44.87% 24.64%
24 2007-02-24 8.98 Livingston 2 1471 31.75% @ Ross County 0 1471 43.44% 24.81%
25 2006-11-25 8.85 @ Clyde 4 1534 58.39% Queen of the South 0 1420 20.30% 21.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-10-14 79.0 @ St. Johnstone 3 1593 40.52% Gretna 3 1613 34.44% 25.04%
2 2006-10-21 78.1 @ Gretna 3 1613 55.27% Clyde 3 1525 22.37% 22.35%
3 2007-01-13 73.7 @ Partick Thistle 2 1475 22.66% Gretna 2 1644 54.86% 22.48%
4 2006-12-16 73.2 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1543 37.07% St. Johnstone 2 1587 37.81% 25.12%
5 2006-11-22 71.8 @ Ross County 2 1479 27.70% St. Johnstone 2 1596 48.18% 24.12%
6 2007-03-17 70.4 @ Ross County 2 1467 28.99% Clyde 2 1573 46.62% 24.39%
7 2007-04-28 68.5 St. Johnstone 4 1605 40.58% @ Hamilton Academical 3 1542 34.38% 25.04%
8 2007-02-10 68.3 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1542 60.82% Queen of the South 2 1409 18.77% 20.40%
9 2006-09-16 67.9 @ Gretna 1 1609 58.04% Livingston 1 1498 20.52% 21.44%
10 2006-08-19 67.7 @ Livingston 2 1483 42.62% Partick Thistle 2 1488 32.49% 24.89%
11 2006-08-19 67.6 @ Airdrie United 2 1514 54.06% Queen of the South 2 1435 23.22% 22.71%
12 2007-01-13 67.2 @ Livingston 3 1474 27.66% St. Johnstone 2 1592 48.23% 24.11%
13 2007-03-17 67.1 @ Queen of the South 2 1457 37.46% Dundee 2 1498 37.41% 25.12%
14 2007-03-17 66.8 @ Livingston 1 1466 23.84% Gretna 1 1622 53.21% 22.95%
15 2006-09-23 66.5 @ Livingston 1 1499 30.39% St. Johnstone 1 1594 44.98% 24.63%
16 2006-09-30 66.2 @ Dundee 1 1489 29.24% St. Johnstone 1 1594 46.32% 24.44%
17 2006-12-30 66.0 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1540 43.12% Clyde 1 1542 32.04% 24.84%
18 2006-12-09 65.6 @ Airdrie United 4 1492 24.93% Gretna 2 1636 51.73% 23.34%
19 2007-03-03 65.5 @ Ross County 1 1462 26.20% St. Johnstone 1 1594 50.07% 23.73%
20 2007-04-28 65.5 @ Clyde 1 1556 51.10% Dundee 1 1500 25.40% 23.50%
21 2006-11-25 64.9 Livingston 2 1484 20.36% @ St. Johnstone 1 1596 58.29% 21.35%
22 2006-12-02 64.7 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1544 50.83% Livingston 1 1489 25.61% 23.56%
23 2007-02-10 64.7 @ Gretna 0 1643 62.72% Airdrie United 0 1494 17.65% 19.64%
24 2006-09-30 64.6 @ Clyde 1 1535 48.29% Livingston 1 1500 27.61% 24.10%
25 2007-01-27 64.6 @ St. Johnstone 2 1590 35.16% Gretna 1 1648 39.77% 25.08%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2006-10-21 37.6 @ St. Johnstone 5 1593 66.63% Queen of the South 0 1410 15.45% 17.92%
2 2006-11-25 37.7 @ Clyde 4 1534 58.39% Queen of the South 0 1420 20.30% 21.31%
3 2006-11-11 38.4 @ Gretna 5 1611 67.46% Queen of the South 0 1420 15.00% 17.54%
4 2007-01-02 40.4 Gretna 4 1636 61.25% @ Queen of the South 0 1416 18.52% 20.23%
5 2007-04-21 41.2 @ St. Johnstone 3 1599 61.08% Queen of the South 0 1464 18.62% 20.30%
6 2007-04-07 42.0 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1538 52.20% Livingston 0 1473 24.57% 23.22%
7 2006-08-05 42.1 @ Livingston 2 1462 45.70% Queen of the South 0 1445 29.77% 24.53%
8 2006-08-27 42.2 Gretna 3 1625 57.56% @ Queen of the South 0 1436 20.84% 21.60%
9 2007-03-31 42.4 @ Gretna 2 1621 64.82% Partick Thistle 0 1454 16.44% 18.74%
10 2007-01-20 42.5 @ Dundee 1 1487 54.07% Queen of the South 0 1408 23.22% 22.71%
11 2007-03-03 42.5 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1540 51.61% Airdrie United 0 1480 25.02% 23.37%
12 2006-11-25 42.8 @ Gretna 4 1621 60.45% Partick Thistle 0 1491 19.00% 20.54%
13 2007-03-10 42.8 @ St. Johnstone 2 1588 60.20% Partick Thistle 0 1460 19.15% 20.64%
14 2006-09-23 43.4 Clyde 2 1529 46.51% @ Queen of the South 0 1423 29.09% 24.41%
15 2006-10-14 43.4 Partick Thistle 2 1470 38.99% @ Queen of the South 0 1417 35.90% 25.10%
16 2006-12-30 43.4 @ Ross County 1 1467 49.95% Queen of the South 0 1419 26.29% 23.76%
17 2007-03-10 43.5 @ Queen of the South 2 1450 41.49% Ross County 0 1463 33.53% 24.98%
18 2006-09-16 43.9 @ Clyde 3 1519 46.48% Ross County 0 1497 29.11% 24.41%
19 2006-09-09 44.0 @ Ross County 1 1494 52.21% Queen of the South 0 1429 24.57% 23.22%
20 2007-01-02 44.5 @ Clyde 2 1542 51.69% Partick Thistle 0 1481 24.96% 23.35%
21 2007-04-28 44.5 Airdrie United 3 1482 34.98% @ Queen of the South 0 1458 39.95% 25.07%
22 2007-01-02 44.7 @ Dundee 2 1480 43.17% Livingston 0 1481 31.99% 24.84%
23 2006-11-04 44.9 @ St. Johnstone 2 1597 57.73% Partick Thistle 0 1489 20.72% 21.54%
24 2006-09-09 45.0 @ Livingston 3 1487 40.22% Airdrie United 0 1510 34.72% 25.06%
25 2006-11-18 45.1 @ Queen of the South 2 1412 33.89% Dundee 0 1479 41.10% 25.01%