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2008-09 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

St. Johnstone

65 pts

Relegated

Clyde

39 pts

Livingston · administratively relegated

Biggest Overachiever

Partick Thistle

4.64 points above expected

55 points · 50.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundee

7.71 points below expected

50 points · 57.71 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 St. Johnstone Promoted 36 17 14 5 65 55 35 +20 61.65 +3.35
2 Partick Thistle 36 16 7 13 55 39 38 +1 50.36 +4.64
3 Dunfermline Athletic 36 14 9 13 51 52 44 +8 53.23 -2.23
4 Dundee 36 13 11 12 50 33 32 +1 57.71 -7.71
5 Queen of the South 36 12 11 13 47 57 50 +7 52.01 -5.01
6 Greenock Morton 36 12 11 13 47 40 40 0 45.09 +1.91
7 Livingston Demoted 36 13 8 15 47 56 58 -2 45.35 +1.65
8 Ross County 36 13 8 15 47 42 46 -4 42.68 +4.32
9 Airdrie United 36 10 12 14 42 29 43 -14 43.07 -1.07
10 Clyde Relegated 36 10 9 17 39 41 58 -17 41.31 -2.31

Notes

  • Livingston was administratively relegated due to financial difficulties.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Partick Thistle 55 50.36 +4.64
2 Ross County 47 42.68 +4.32
3 St. Johnstone 65 61.65 +3.35
4 Greenock Morton 47 45.09 +1.91
5 Livingston 47 45.35 +1.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 50 57.71 -7.71
2 Queen of the South 47 52.01 -5.01
3 Clyde 39 41.31 -2.31
4 Dunfermline Athletic 51 53.23 -2.23
5 Airdrie United 42 43.07 -1.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Johnstone 6 Sep 27 – Nov 8 1 in 142
2 Livingston 4 Aug 9 – Aug 30 1 in 61
3 Greenock Morton 3 Nov 8 – Nov 25 1 in 48
4 Clyde 3 Nov 22 – Dec 16 1 in 36
5 Ross County 3 Sep 27 – Oct 18 1 in 34

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 4 Nov 1 – Nov 22 1 in 142
2 Dunfermline Athletic 4 Feb 21 – Mar 14 1 in 110
3 Greenock Morton 4 Apr 18 – May 9 1 in 55
4 St. Johnstone 3 Aug 16 – Aug 30 1 in 53
5 Airdrie United 4 Nov 22 – Dec 16 1 in 36

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 St. Johnstone 22 Sep 13 – Mar 10 1 in 1,436
2 Greenock Morton 8 Feb 28 – Apr 11 1 in 37
3 Airdrie United 5 Dec 20 – Jan 24 1 in 24
4 Clyde 5 Nov 15 – Dec 20 1 in 23
5 Queen of the South 7 Aug 17 – Oct 4 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 11 Nov 1 – Jan 24 1 in 188
2 Dundee 8 Aug 30 – Nov 1 1 in 151
3 Greenock Morton 9 Aug 2 – Oct 4 1 in 25
4 Airdrie United 8 Nov 1 – Dec 20 1 in 20
5 St. Johnstone 4 Aug 9 – Aug 30 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
St. Johnstone 1607 65 +24 12 8.3 +3.7
Partick Thistle 1497 55 -22 6 7.4 -1.4
Dunfermline Athletic 1533 51 +19 10 7.3 +2.7
Dundee 1547 50 -4 6 8.0 -2.0
Queen of the South 1514 47 +16 10 6.8 +3.2
Ross County 1462 47 -2 5 6.7 -1.7
Greenock Morton 1490 47 -16 3 6.6 -3.6
Livingston 1480 47 -19 2 6.6 -4.6
Airdrie United 1438 42 -7 9 5.5 +3.5
Clyde 1436 39 +11 8 5.3 +2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU CLY DUN DA GM LIV PT QOTS RC SJ
Airdrie United —
1-0-3
5.52
2-2-0
3.97
0-3-1
4.36
2-1-1
5.09
1-3-0
4.97
1-0-3
4.66
2-1-1
4.44
1-1-2
5.53
0-1-3
3.70
Clyde
3-0-1
5.39
 —
2-0-2
3.90
0-2-2
4.29
0-1-3
5.26
1-1-2
4.78
1-1-2
4.70
1-1-2
4.45
1-2-1
5.36
1-1-2
3.79
Dundee
0-2-2
7.01
2-0-2
7.09
 —
2-2-0
5.85
1-1-2
6.88
3-0-1
6.44
1-3-0
6.04
2-0-2
6.22
2-1-1
7.17
0-2-2
5.25
Dunfermline Athletic
1-3-0
6.60
2-2-0
6.67
0-2-2
5.07
 —
1-1-2
6.43
2-0-2
6.14
2-0-2
5.75
3-0-1
5.71
2-0-2
6.53
1-1-2
4.60
Greenock Morton
1-1-2
5.83
3-1-0
5.66
2-1-1
4.10
2-1-1
4.51
 —
1-1-2
5.26
1-0-3
5.07
1-3-0
4.67
1-1-2
5.90
0-2-2
4.06
Livingston
0-3-1
5.95
2-1-1
6.15
1-0-3
4.51
2-0-2
4.79
2-1-1
5.66
 —
1-0-3
5.16
1-2-1
5.14
3-1-0
5.84
1-0-3
4.26
Partick Thistle
3-0-1
6.28
2-1-1
6.23
0-3-1
4.88
2-0-2
5.16
3-0-1
5.85
3-0-1
5.76
 —
1-1-2
5.33
1-0-3
6.30
1-2-1
4.45
Queen of the South
1-1-2
6.50
2-1-1
6.51
2-0-2
4.71
1-0-3
5.22
0-3-1
6.28
1-2-1
5.77
2-1-1
5.58
 —
2-0-2
6.39
1-3-0
4.62
Ross County
2-1-1
5.39
1-2-1
5.56
1-1-2
3.83
2-0-2
4.43
2-1-1
5.03
0-1-3
5.08
3-0-1
4.65
2-0-2
4.56
 —
0-2-2
3.88
St. Johnstone
3-1-0
7.31
2-1-1
7.20
2-2-0
5.66
2-1-1
6.35
2-2-0
6.92
3-0-1
6.70
1-2-1
6.49
0-3-1
6.33
2-2-0
7.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.15 +2.8
Allowed 0.40 -5.1
Differential 0.79 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%10.56%8.61%2.22%1.11%0.28%32.78%
110.56%10.00%6.39%2.50%1.11%0.56%31.11%
28.61%6.39%5.56%1.39%1.39%—23.33%
32.22%2.50%1.39%1.11%——7.22%
41.11%1.11%1.39%—1.11%—4.72%
5+0.28%0.56%————0.83%
Total32.78%31.11%23.33%7.22%4.72%0.83%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.68
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%—47.22%
116.67%13.89%2.78%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%2.78%————8.33%
3———————
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total41.67%25.00%13.89%11.11%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.19 -0.39
SD 1.12 1.33 1.79
CV 1.39 1.11 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%11.11%2.78%——30.56%
18.33%13.89%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%36.11%
211.11%2.78%5.56%—5.56%—25.00%
32.78%—2.78%———5.56%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%30.56%25.00%5.56%11.11%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.61 -0.47
SD 1.02 1.55 1.78
CV 0.89 0.96 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%11.11%2.78%——41.67%
116.67%13.89%2.78%2.78%——36.11%
25.56%8.33%—2.78%——16.67%
3———————
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total41.67%36.11%13.89%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 0.89 +0.03
SD 1.05 0.95 1.48
CV 1.15 1.07 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%2.78%———25.00%
15.56%13.89%13.89%2.78%——36.11%
22.78%8.33%——2.78%—13.89%
35.56%8.33%5.56%———19.44%
4—2.78%——2.78%—5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%47.22%22.22%2.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.22 +0.22
SD 1.23 1.02 1.42
CV 0.85 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%2.78%2.78%—2.78%36.11%
15.56%11.11%8.33%2.78%——27.78%
216.67%5.56%8.33%———30.56%
3———————
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%36.11%22.22%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.11 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.12 1.62
CV 0.98 1.00 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%5.56%———22.22%
18.33%5.56%11.11%—2.78%2.78%30.56%
25.56%8.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
32.78%2.78%—2.78%——8.33%
4—2.78%5.56%—2.78%—11.11%
5+———————
Total19.44%33.33%30.56%5.56%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.25 1.36 1.69
CV 0.81 0.84 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%11.11%2.78%2.78%—38.89%
119.44%8.33%—2.78%——30.56%
28.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
3———————
42.78%—5.56%———8.33%
5+———————
Total38.89%30.56%19.44%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.06 +0.03
SD 1.18 1.09 1.66
CV 1.09 1.04 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%16.67%2.78%——33.33%
12.78%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—19.44%
213.89%—11.11%———25.00%
3—2.78%5.56%5.56%——13.89%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%19.44%41.67%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.39 +0.19
SD 1.68 1.08 2.07
CV 1.06 0.78 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%13.89%———27.78%
18.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%2.78%—33.33%
211.11%11.11%8.33%—2.78%—33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%33.33%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.28 -0.11
SD 0.91 1.16 1.58
CV 0.78 0.91 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%2.78%—2.78%2.78%—25.00%
113.89%8.33%————22.22%
25.56%8.33%11.11%5.56%——30.56%
35.56%11.11%—2.78%——19.44%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total44.44%30.56%11.11%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.97 +0.56
SD 1.16 1.13 1.54
CV 0.76 1.17 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
St. Johnstone 1607 65 61.65 +3.35 64.0% 42 50 55 62 68 75 83
Dundee 1547 50 57.71 -7.71 16.0% 44 46 53 57 63 71 81
Dunfermline Athletic 1533 51 53.23 -2.23 40.0% 38 41 48 54 58 63 69
Queen of the South 1514 47 52.01 -5.01 26.0% 32 39 47 52 57 65 71
Partick Thistle 1497 55 50.36 +4.64 73.0% 31 35 44 51 56 63 66
Greenock Morton 1490 47 45.09 +1.91 63.0% 26 29 40 45 50 56 68
Livingston 1480 47 45.35 +1.65 62.0% 29 32 40 44 52 57 63
Ross County 1462 47 42.68 +4.32 73.0% 25 29 38 42 48 55 65
Airdrie United 1438 42 43.07 -1.07 47.0% 23 29 39 43 48 54 58
Clyde 1436 39 41.31 -2.31 38.0% 20 27 37 41 46 54 57

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+8.89%
No Edge
40.56%27.78%31.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 30.96 Elo pts.
280 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.23 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
51%
St. Johnstone, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Runaway
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.14 * Some Luck: 6.14 to 9.21 * Lucky: 9.21 to 12.28 * Wild Swing: 12.28 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.48 * Close: 1.48 to 2.21 * Off: 2.21 to 2.95 * Way Off: 2.95 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.49 * A Surprise: 1.49 to 2.38 * Several Surprises: 2.38 to 3.28 * Many Surprises: 3.28 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.91 points
As Expected
07.6719
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.844
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
73.00%
Partick Thistle
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
16.00%
Dundee
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.07
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 52.51
0.92
Coin-Flip Parity
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
73%
Even
50%73%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
11%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.21
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.26
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.71
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.43
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.41
Overconfident
0.2293881.001.77061
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.073
Well Within Noise
00.1200.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
St. Johnstone51.00%16.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%2.00%—1.00%—1.00%
Partick Thistle3.00%13.00%16.00%16.00%12.00%14.00%6.00%4.00%11.00%5.00%
Dunfermline Athletic11.00%21.00%17.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%—
Dundee22.00%30.00%14.00%13.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%——
Queen of the South10.00%10.00%21.00%9.00%16.00%9.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%
Greenock Morton1.00%5.00%4.00%9.00%10.00%15.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%
Livingston—2.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%10.00%15.00%14.00%17.00%10.00%
Ross County2.00%2.00%2.00%7.00%8.00%8.00%13.00%19.00%18.00%21.00%
Airdrie United—1.00%3.00%7.00%14.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%18.00%17.00%
Clyde——3.00%6.00%5.00%13.00%14.00%15.00%14.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
St. Johnstone 51.00% 48.00% — 1.00%
Dundee 22.00% 78.00% — —
Dunfermline Athletic 11.00% 87.00% 2.00% —
Queen of the South 10.00% 83.00% 5.00% 2.00%
Partick Thistle 3.00% 81.00% 11.00% 5.00%
Livingston — 73.00% 17.00% 10.00%
Greenock Morton 1.00% 70.00% 15.00% 14.00%
Airdrie United — 65.00% 18.00% 17.00%
Ross County 2.00% 59.00% 18.00% 21.00%
Clyde — 56.00% 14.00% 30.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2008-08-02 Airdrie United D 0-058.0 1515 1468 47.91% 26.11% 25.97%+0.28 -0.7 1
2008-08-02 @ Queen of the South D 0-058.0 1468 1515 25.97% 26.11% 47.91%-0.28 +0.7 1
2008-08-02 Dundee L 1-254.2 1446 1581 24.26% 25.54% 50.20%-0.37 -3.3 0
2008-08-02 @ Ross County W 2-154.2 1581 1446 50.20% 25.54% 24.26%+0.37 +3.3 3
2008-08-02 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-051.2 1496 1513 38.92% 27.37% 33.71%+0.05 +4.6 3
2008-08-02 @ Partick Thistle L 0-151.2 1513 1496 33.71% 27.37% 38.92%-0.05 -4.6 0
2008-08-02 Greenock Morton D 1-160.9 1467 1475 40.16% 27.29% 32.55%+0.08 -0.2 1
2008-08-02 @ Clyde D 1-160.9 1475 1467 32.55% 27.29% 40.16%-0.08 +0.2 1
2008-08-02 Livingston W 2-044.2 1567 1475 53.82% 24.44% 21.74%+0.44 +6.0 3
2008-08-02 @ St. Johnstone L 0-244.2 1475 1567 21.74% 24.44% 53.82%-0.44 -6.0 0
2008-08-09 Clyde W 1-047.3 1585 1466 57.14% 23.22% 19.64%+0.53 +2.9 6
2008-08-09 @ Dundee L 0-147.3 1466 1585 19.64% 23.22% 57.14%-0.53 -2.9 1
2008-08-09 Partick Thistle L 0-150.7 1469 1501 36.74% 27.44% 35.82%+0.00 -4.9 1
2008-08-09 @ Airdrie United W 1-050.7 1501 1469 35.82% 27.44% 36.74%+0.00 +5.0 6
2008-08-09 Queen of the South W 2-156.9 1508 1515 40.35% 27.28% 32.37%+0.09 +4.2 3
2008-08-09 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-256.9 1515 1508 32.37% 27.28% 40.35%-0.09 -4.2 1
2008-08-09 Ross County W 2-042.1 1469 1443 44.90% 26.71% 28.39%+0.20 +7.6 3
2008-08-09 @ Livingston L 0-242.1 1443 1469 28.39% 26.71% 44.90%-0.20 -7.6 0
2008-08-09 St. Johnstone D 2-270.5 1475 1573 28.16% 26.67% 45.17%-0.24 +0.3 2
2008-08-09 @ Greenock Morton D 2-270.5 1573 1475 45.17% 26.67% 28.16%+0.24 -0.3 4
2008-08-16 Dundee D 0-060.5 1464 1588 25.35% 25.92% 48.72%-0.33 +0.7 2
2008-08-16 @ Airdrie United D 0-060.5 1588 1464 48.72% 25.92% 25.35%+0.33 -0.7 7
2008-08-16 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-352.4 1572 1512 49.61% 25.70% 24.69%+0.32 -17.0 4
2008-08-16 @ St. Johnstone W 3-052.4 1512 1572 24.69% 25.70% 49.61%-0.32 +17.0 6
2008-08-16 Livingston L 1-256.9 1475 1476 41.16% 27.21% 31.64%+0.11 -5.1 2
2008-08-16 @ Greenock Morton W 2-156.9 1476 1475 31.64% 27.21% 41.16%-0.11 +5.1 6
2008-08-16 Ross County D 2-265.2 1464 1435 45.24% 26.65% 28.10%+0.21 -0.3 2
2008-08-16 @ Clyde D 2-265.2 1435 1464 28.10% 26.65% 45.24%-0.21 +0.3 1
2008-08-17 Partick Thistle W 2-046.8 1511 1506 42.02% 27.12% 30.86%+0.13 +8.2 4
2008-08-17 @ Queen of the South L 0-246.8 1506 1511 30.86% 27.12% 42.02%-0.13 -8.2 6
2008-08-23 Airdrie United D 0-058.5 1529 1464 50.26% 25.53% 24.22%+0.34 -0.8 7
2008-08-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-058.5 1464 1529 24.22% 25.53% 50.26%-0.34 +0.8 3
2008-08-23 Clyde W 2-153.0 1481 1463 43.87% 26.87% 29.25%+0.18 +3.9 9
2008-08-23 @ Livingston L 1-253.0 1463 1481 29.25% 26.87% 43.87%-0.18 -3.9 2
2008-08-23 Greenock Morton W 1-047.6 1587 1470 56.94% 23.30% 19.76%+0.53 +2.9 10
2008-08-23 @ Dundee L 0-147.6 1470 1587 19.76% 23.30% 56.94%-0.53 -2.9 2
2008-08-23 St. Johnstone W 4-048.6 1497 1555 33.10% 27.33% 39.57%-0.10 +18.7 9
2008-08-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-448.6 1555 1497 39.57% 27.33% 33.10%+0.10 -18.7 4
2008-08-30 Clyde L 2-365.9 1537 1459 51.91% 25.05% 23.04%+0.39 -5.8 4
2008-08-30 @ St. Johnstone W 3-265.9 1459 1537 23.04% 25.05% 51.91%-0.39 +5.8 5
2008-08-30 Dundee W 3-158.7 1519 1590 31.42% 27.18% 41.40%-0.14 +8.8 7
2008-08-30 @ Queen of the South L 1-358.7 1590 1519 41.40% 27.18% 31.42%+0.14 -8.8 10
2008-08-30 Greenock Morton W 5-042.5 1465 1467 41.01% 27.22% 31.77%+0.10 +19.6 6
2008-08-30 @ Airdrie United L 0-542.5 1467 1465 31.77% 27.22% 41.01%-0.10 -19.6 2
2008-08-30 Livingston L 1-260.8 1529 1485 47.33% 26.24% 26.43%+0.26 -5.6 7
2008-08-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-160.8 1485 1529 26.43% 26.24% 47.33%-0.26 +5.7 12
2008-08-30 Ross County L 0-154.0 1516 1436 52.28% 24.94% 22.79%+0.40 -6.5 9
2008-08-30 @ Partick Thistle W 1-054.0 1436 1516 22.79% 24.94% 52.28%-0.40 +6.5 4
2008-09-03 Ross County W 1-045.6 1528 1442 52.94% 24.73% 22.34%+0.41 +3.3 10
2008-09-03 @ Queen of the South L 0-145.6 1442 1528 22.34% 24.73% 52.94%-0.41 -3.3 4
2008-09-13 Airdrie United L 1-258.1 1491 1485 42.19% 27.10% 30.71%+0.13 -5.2 12
2008-09-13 @ Livingston W 2-158.1 1485 1491 30.71% 27.10% 42.19%-0.13 +5.2 9
2008-09-13 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.4 1581 1523 49.32% 25.77% 24.90%+0.32 -0.7 11
2008-09-13 @ Dundee D 0-062.4 1523 1581 24.90% 25.77% 49.32%-0.32 +0.7 8
2008-09-13 Partick Thistle D 1-162.0 1465 1510 34.95% 27.42% 37.63%-0.05 +0.1 6
2008-09-13 @ Clyde D 1-162.0 1510 1465 37.63% 27.42% 34.95%+0.05 -0.1 10
2008-09-13 Queen of the South D 0-057.5 1448 1531 29.90% 26.98% 43.12%-0.19 +0.4 3
2008-09-13 @ Greenock Morton D 0-057.5 1531 1448 43.12% 26.98% 29.90%+0.19 -0.4 11
2008-09-13 St. Johnstone L 1-253.7 1439 1531 28.85% 26.80% 44.35%-0.22 -3.9 4
2008-09-13 @ Ross County W 2-153.7 1531 1439 44.35% 26.80% 28.85%+0.22 +3.9 7
2008-09-20 Clyde L 0-248.5 1490 1465 44.79% 26.73% 28.48%+0.20 -10.8 9
2008-09-20 @ Airdrie United W 2-048.5 1465 1490 28.48% 26.73% 44.79%-0.20 +10.8 9
2008-09-20 Greenock Morton W 2-151.7 1509 1448 49.78% 25.65% 24.56%+0.33 +3.4 13
2008-09-20 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.7 1448 1509 24.56% 25.65% 49.78%-0.33 -3.4 3
2008-09-20 Livingston L 0-352.7 1580 1486 54.11% 24.34% 21.56%+0.45 -18.2 11
2008-09-20 @ Dundee W 3-052.7 1486 1580 21.56% 24.34% 54.11%-0.45 +18.2 15
2008-09-20 Ross County W 3-146.8 1524 1435 53.35% 24.59% 22.06%+0.43 +5.3 11
2008-09-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-346.8 1435 1524 22.06% 24.59% 53.35%-0.43 -5.3 4
2008-09-20 St. Johnstone D 2-271.0 1530 1535 40.69% 27.25% 32.06%+0.09 -0.2 12
2008-09-20 @ Queen of the South D 2-271.0 1535 1530 32.06% 27.25% 40.69%-0.09 +0.2 8
2008-09-27 Airdrie United W 2-045.2 1430 1479 34.30% 27.40% 38.30%-0.07 +9.6 7
2008-09-27 @ Ross County L 0-245.2 1479 1430 38.30% 27.40% 34.30%+0.07 -9.6 9
2008-09-27 Dundee W 2-051.0 1535 1562 37.47% 27.42% 35.11%+0.01 +9.0 11
2008-09-27 @ St. Johnstone L 0-251.0 1562 1535 35.11% 27.42% 37.47%-0.01 -9.0 11
2008-09-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-162.2 1445 1529 29.77% 26.96% 43.26%-0.19 +0.4 4
2008-09-27 @ Greenock Morton D 1-162.2 1529 1445 43.26% 26.96% 29.77%+0.19 -0.4 12
2008-09-27 Partick Thistle W 3-152.9 1504 1513 40.05% 27.30% 32.65%+0.08 +7.4 18
2008-09-27 @ Livingston L 1-352.9 1513 1504 32.65% 27.30% 40.05%-0.08 -7.4 13
2008-09-27 Queen of the South L 0-247.3 1476 1530 33.60% 27.36% 39.04%-0.08 -8.7 9
2008-09-27 @ Clyde W 2-047.3 1530 1476 39.04% 27.36% 33.60%+0.08 +8.7 15
2008-10-04 Airdrie United W 3-149.4 1544 1469 51.53% 25.16% 23.31%+0.38 +5.6 14
2008-10-04 @ St. Johnstone L 1-349.4 1469 1544 23.31% 25.16% 51.53%-0.38 -5.6 9
2008-10-04 Dundee D 0-060.3 1505 1553 34.55% 27.41% 38.04%-0.06 +0.1 14
2008-10-04 @ Partick Thistle D 0-060.3 1553 1505 38.04% 27.41% 34.55%+0.06 -0.1 12
2008-10-04 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-246.6 1467 1529 32.66% 27.30% 40.04%-0.11 -8.6 9
2008-10-04 @ Clyde W 2-046.6 1529 1467 40.04% 27.30% 32.66%+0.11 +8.5 15
2008-10-04 Greenock Morton W 3-040.5 1439 1445 40.52% 27.26% 32.22%+0.09 +12.3 10
2008-10-04 @ Ross County L 0-340.5 1445 1439 32.22% 27.26% 40.52%-0.09 -12.3 4
2008-10-04 Livingston W 6-148.0 1539 1511 45.18% 26.66% 28.16%+0.21 +14.7 18
2008-10-04 @ Queen of the South L 1-648.0 1511 1539 28.16% 26.66% 45.18%-0.21 -14.7 18
2008-10-18 Clyde W 1-047.4 1433 1459 37.62% 27.42% 34.96%+0.02 +4.8 7
2008-10-18 @ Greenock Morton L 0-147.4 1459 1433 34.96% 27.42% 37.62%-0.02 -4.8 9
2008-10-18 Partick Thistle W 1-050.5 1537 1506 45.73% 26.57% 27.71%+0.22 +4.0 18
2008-10-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-150.5 1506 1537 27.71% 26.57% 45.73%-0.22 -4.0 14
2008-10-18 Queen of the South W 2-050.7 1464 1554 29.10% 26.85% 44.05%-0.21 +10.7 12
2008-10-18 @ Airdrie United L 0-250.7 1554 1464 44.05% 26.85% 29.10%+0.21 -10.7 18
2008-10-18 Ross County L 1-262.0 1553 1452 54.96% 24.04% 21.00%+0.47 -6.3 12
2008-10-18 @ Dundee W 2-162.0 1452 1553 21.00% 24.04% 54.96%-0.47 +6.3 13
2008-10-18 St. Johnstone L 0-152.7 1497 1550 33.80% 27.37% 38.83%-0.08 -4.7 18
2008-10-18 @ Livingston W 1-052.7 1550 1497 38.83% 27.37% 33.80%+0.08 +4.7 17
2008-10-25 Dundee W 2-050.1 1438 1546 26.93% 26.38% 46.69%-0.28 +11.2 10
2008-10-25 @ Greenock Morton L 0-250.1 1546 1438 46.69% 26.38% 26.93%+0.28 -11.2 12
2008-10-25 Livingston W 2-155.4 1454 1492 35.85% 27.44% 36.72%-0.03 +4.7 12
2008-10-25 @ Clyde L 1-255.4 1492 1454 36.72% 27.44% 35.85%+0.03 -4.7 18
2008-10-25 Partick Thistle W 3-044.2 1554 1502 48.61% 25.95% 25.44%+0.30 +10.1 20
2008-10-25 @ St. Johnstone L 0-344.2 1502 1554 25.44% 25.95% 48.61%-0.30 -10.1 14
2008-10-25 Queen of the South L 0-245.8 1458 1543 29.69% 26.95% 43.37%-0.19 -7.9 13
2008-10-25 @ Ross County W 2-045.8 1543 1458 43.37% 26.95% 29.69%+0.19 +7.9 21
2008-11-01 Airdrie United D 1-163.9 1535 1475 49.68% 25.68% 24.64%+0.33 -0.7 13
2008-11-01 @ Dundee D 1-163.9 1475 1535 24.64% 25.68% 49.68%-0.33 +0.7 13
2008-11-01 Clyde W 3-041.4 1450 1458 40.13% 27.29% 32.58%+0.08 +12.4 16
2008-11-01 @ Ross County L 0-341.4 1458 1450 32.58% 27.29% 40.13%-0.08 -12.4 12
2008-11-01 Greenock Morton W 1-046.2 1487 1449 46.70% 26.38% 26.92%+0.25 +3.9 21
2008-11-01 @ Livingston L 0-146.2 1449 1487 26.92% 26.38% 46.70%-0.25 -3.9 10
2008-11-01 Queen of the South W 2-050.5 1491 1551 32.91% 27.32% 39.77%-0.10 +9.9 17
2008-11-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-250.5 1551 1491 39.77% 27.32% 32.91%+0.10 -9.9 21
2008-11-01 St. Johnstone L 1-261.6 1541 1564 37.99% 27.41% 34.60%+0.03 -4.8 18
2008-11-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-161.6 1564 1541 34.60% 27.41% 37.99%-0.03 +4.8 23
2008-11-04 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-352.8 1475 1536 32.71% 27.30% 39.99%-0.11 -7.4 13
2008-11-04 @ Airdrie United W 3-152.8 1536 1475 39.99% 27.30% 32.71%+0.11 +7.4 21
2008-11-08 Clyde W 2-042.1 1501 1446 48.96% 25.86% 25.18%+0.31 +6.9 20
2008-11-08 @ Partick Thistle L 0-242.1 1446 1501 25.18% 25.86% 48.96%-0.31 -6.9 12
2008-11-08 Dundee L 0-156.3 1544 1535 42.60% 27.05% 30.35%+0.14 -5.5 21
2008-11-08 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-056.3 1535 1544 30.35% 27.05% 42.60%-0.14 +5.5 16
2008-11-08 Greenock Morton L 1-454.5 1541 1445 54.35% 24.25% 21.40%+0.45 -15.4 21
2008-11-08 @ Queen of the South W 4-154.5 1445 1541 21.40% 24.25% 54.35%-0.45 +15.4 13
2008-11-08 Livingston D 0-056.7 1468 1491 37.97% 27.41% 34.62%+0.03 -0.1 14
2008-11-08 @ Airdrie United D 0-056.7 1491 1468 34.62% 27.41% 37.97%-0.03 +0.1 22
2008-11-08 Ross County W 2-152.7 1569 1463 55.67% 23.78% 20.55%+0.49 +2.8 26
2008-11-08 @ St. Johnstone L 1-252.7 1463 1569 20.55% 23.78% 55.67%-0.49 -2.8 16
2008-11-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-362.6 1491 1538 34.63% 27.41% 37.96%-0.06 -4.2 22
2008-11-15 @ Livingston W 3-262.6 1538 1491 37.96% 27.41% 34.63%+0.06 +4.2 24
2008-11-15 Queen of the South W 2-048.2 1540 1526 43.34% 26.95% 29.70%+0.16 +7.9 19
2008-11-15 @ Dundee L 0-248.2 1526 1540 29.70% 26.95% 43.34%-0.16 -7.9 21
2008-11-15 St. Johnstone D 2-269.5 1439 1572 24.46% 25.62% 49.92%-0.36 +0.5 13
2008-11-15 @ Clyde D 2-269.5 1572 1439 49.92% 25.62% 24.46%+0.36 -0.5 27
2008-11-22 Clyde L 0-250.3 1518 1440 51.98% 25.03% 22.99%+0.39 -12.2 21
2008-11-22 @ Queen of the South W 2-050.3 1440 1518 22.99% 25.03% 51.98%-0.39 +12.2 16
2008-11-22 Greenock Morton L 0-155.9 1542 1460 52.53% 24.86% 22.62%+0.40 -6.5 24
2008-11-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-055.9 1460 1542 22.62% 24.86% 52.53%-0.40 +6.5 16
2008-11-22 Livingston W 2-154.7 1508 1487 44.28% 26.81% 28.91%+0.19 +3.9 23
2008-11-22 @ Partick Thistle L 1-254.7 1487 1508 28.91% 26.81% 44.28%-0.19 -3.9 22
2008-11-22 Ross County L 0-247.0 1468 1460 42.44% 27.07% 30.49%+0.14 -10.4 14
2008-11-22 @ Airdrie United W 2-047.0 1460 1468 30.49% 27.07% 42.44%-0.14 +10.4 19
2008-11-25 Airdrie United W 2-043.2 1467 1457 42.64% 27.04% 30.32%+0.14 +8.1 19
2008-11-25 @ Greenock Morton L 0-243.2 1457 1467 30.32% 27.04% 42.64%-0.14 -8.1 14
2008-11-25 Partick Thistle W 1-051.3 1470 1512 35.31% 27.43% 37.27%-0.04 +5.0 22
2008-11-25 @ Ross County L 0-151.3 1512 1470 37.27% 27.43% 35.31%+0.04 -5.0 23
2008-11-29 St. Johnstone D 1-167.2 1548 1571 37.97% 27.41% 34.62%+0.03 -0.1 20
2008-11-29 @ Dundee D 1-167.2 1571 1548 34.62% 27.41% 37.97%-0.03 +0.1 28
2008-12-06 Queen of the South D 0-061.6 1572 1506 50.39% 25.49% 24.12%+0.35 -0.8 29
2008-12-06 @ St. Johnstone D 0-061.6 1506 1572 24.12% 25.49% 50.39%-0.35 +0.8 22
2008-12-13 Airdrie United W 2-151.8 1507 1449 49.31% 25.78% 24.92%+0.32 +3.4 26
2008-12-13 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.8 1449 1507 24.92% 25.78% 49.31%-0.32 -3.4 14
2008-12-13 Dundee W 1-054.1 1452 1548 28.37% 26.71% 44.92%-0.23 +5.8 19
2008-12-13 @ Clyde L 0-154.1 1548 1452 44.92% 26.71% 28.37%+0.23 -5.8 20
2008-12-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-259.1 1506 1536 37.09% 27.43% 35.48%+0.00 -4.7 22
2008-12-13 @ Queen of the South W 2-159.1 1536 1506 35.48% 27.43% 37.09%+0.00 +4.7 27
2008-12-13 Greenock Morton W 1-048.0 1571 1475 54.31% 24.27% 21.42%+0.45 +3.1 32
2008-12-13 @ St. Johnstone L 0-148.0 1475 1571 21.42% 24.27% 54.31%-0.45 -3.1 19
2008-12-13 Livingston L 1-450.1 1475 1483 40.16% 27.29% 32.55%+0.08 -12.2 22
2008-12-13 @ Ross County W 4-150.1 1483 1475 32.55% 27.29% 40.16%-0.08 +12.2 25
2008-12-16 Airdrie United W 1-046.2 1458 1446 42.97% 27.00% 30.03%+0.15 +4.2 22
2008-12-16 @ Clyde L 0-146.2 1446 1458 30.03% 27.00% 42.97%-0.15 -4.2 14
2008-12-20 Clyde D 4-474.4 1541 1462 52.08% 25.00% 22.92%+0.39 -0.4 28
2008-12-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 4-474.4 1462 1541 22.92% 25.00% 52.08%-0.39 +0.4 23
2008-12-20 Partick Thistle D 0-060.4 1542 1511 45.74% 26.56% 27.70%+0.22 -0.5 21
2008-12-20 @ Dundee D 0-060.4 1511 1542 27.70% 26.56% 45.74%-0.22 +0.5 27
2008-12-20 Queen of the South W 2-046.5 1495 1502 40.43% 27.27% 32.30%+0.09 +8.5 28
2008-12-20 @ Livingston L 0-246.5 1502 1495 32.30% 27.27% 40.43%-0.09 -8.5 22
2008-12-20 Ross County W 2-153.0 1472 1463 42.55% 27.05% 30.40%+0.14 +4.0 22
2008-12-20 @ Greenock Morton L 1-253.0 1463 1472 30.40% 27.05% 42.55%-0.14 -4.0 22
2008-12-20 St. Johnstone D 1-164.1 1442 1574 24.51% 25.64% 49.85%-0.36 +0.7 15
2008-12-20 @ Airdrie United D 1-164.1 1574 1442 49.85% 25.64% 24.51%+0.36 -0.7 33
2008-12-27 Clyde W 1-047.1 1573 1462 56.21% 23.58% 20.21%+0.51 +3.0 36
2008-12-27 @ St. Johnstone L 0-147.1 1462 1573 20.21% 23.58% 56.21%-0.51 -3.0 23
2008-12-27 Dundee L 0-152.4 1493 1542 34.41% 27.40% 38.19%-0.06 -4.7 22
2008-12-27 @ Queen of the South W 1-052.4 1542 1493 38.19% 27.40% 34.41%+0.06 +4.7 24
2008-12-27 Greenock Morton W 1-048.7 1442 1476 36.53% 27.44% 36.03%-0.01 +4.9 18
2008-12-27 @ Airdrie United L 0-148.7 1476 1442 36.03% 27.44% 36.53%+0.01 -4.9 22
2008-12-27 Ross County L 0-250.0 1511 1459 48.55% 25.97% 25.49%+0.30 -11.5 27
2008-12-27 @ Partick Thistle W 2-050.0 1459 1511 25.49% 25.97% 48.55%-0.30 +11.5 25
2008-12-30 Livingston W 1-050.3 1540 1504 46.37% 26.44% 27.18%+0.24 +3.9 31
2008-12-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-150.3 1504 1540 27.18% 26.44% 46.37%-0.24 -3.9 28
2008-12-30 Partick Thistle W 2-046.5 1471 1500 37.21% 27.43% 35.36%+0.01 +9.1 25
2008-12-30 @ Greenock Morton L 0-246.5 1500 1471 35.36% 27.43% 37.21%-0.01 -9.1 27
2009-01-03 Airdrie United D 1-161.5 1500 1447 48.63% 25.95% 25.43%+0.30 -0.6 29
2009-01-03 @ Livingston D 1-161.5 1447 1500 25.43% 25.95% 48.63%-0.30 +0.6 19
2009-01-03 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-053.4 1546 1544 41.63% 27.16% 31.21%+0.12 +4.4 27
2009-01-03 @ Dundee L 0-153.4 1544 1546 31.21% 27.16% 41.63%-0.12 -4.4 31
2009-01-03 Partick Thistle L 2-455.3 1459 1490 36.86% 27.43% 35.70%+0.00 -7.2 23
2009-01-03 @ Clyde W 4-255.3 1490 1459 35.70% 27.43% 36.86%+0.00 +7.2 30
2009-01-03 Queen of the South D 2-267.4 1480 1488 40.10% 27.30% 32.61%+0.08 -0.2 26
2009-01-03 @ Greenock Morton D 2-267.4 1488 1480 32.61% 27.30% 40.10%-0.08 +0.1 23
2009-01-17 Airdrie United D 1-163.4 1540 1448 53.79% 24.45% 21.76%+0.44 -0.9 32
2009-01-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-163.4 1448 1540 21.76% 24.45% 53.79%-0.44 +0.9 20
2009-01-17 Clyde D 1-161.6 1499 1452 47.88% 26.12% 26.00%+0.28 -0.6 30
2009-01-17 @ Livingston D 1-161.6 1452 1499 26.00% 26.12% 47.88%-0.28 +0.6 24
2009-01-17 Greenock Morton D 0-060.0 1551 1480 51.05% 25.30% 23.64%+0.36 -0.8 28
2009-01-17 @ Dundee D 0-060.0 1480 1551 23.64% 25.30% 51.05%-0.36 +0.8 27
2009-01-17 Queen of the South W 1-049.5 1470 1489 38.72% 27.38% 33.90%+0.05 +4.7 28
2009-01-17 @ Ross County L 0-149.5 1489 1470 33.90% 27.38% 38.72%-0.05 -4.7 23
2009-01-17 St. Johnstone D 0-061.0 1498 1576 30.48% 27.07% 42.45%-0.17 +0.3 31
2009-01-17 @ Partick Thistle D 0-061.0 1576 1498 42.45% 27.07% 30.48%+0.17 -0.4 37
2009-01-24 Dundee W 1-054.2 1449 1550 27.79% 26.58% 45.63%-0.25 +5.8 23
2009-01-24 @ Airdrie United L 0-154.2 1550 1449 45.63% 26.58% 27.79%+0.25 -5.8 28
2009-01-24 Livingston D 2-267.8 1481 1499 38.72% 27.38% 33.90%+0.05 -0.1 28
2009-01-24 @ Greenock Morton D 2-267.8 1499 1481 33.90% 27.38% 38.72%-0.05 +0.1 31
2009-01-24 Partick Thistle D 2-267.9 1484 1498 39.30% 27.35% 33.35%+0.06 -0.1 24
2009-01-24 @ Queen of the South D 2-267.9 1498 1484 33.35% 27.35% 39.30%-0.06 +0.1 32
2009-01-24 Ross County W 2-044.7 1453 1475 38.12% 27.40% 34.47%+0.03 +8.9 27
2009-01-24 @ Clyde L 0-244.7 1475 1453 34.47% 27.40% 38.12%-0.03 -8.9 28
2009-01-31 Clyde W 2-152.6 1544 1462 52.57% 24.85% 22.59%+0.40 +3.1 31
2009-01-31 @ Dundee L 1-252.6 1462 1544 22.59% 24.85% 52.57%-0.40 -3.1 27
2009-01-31 Partick Thistle L 0-149.6 1455 1498 35.08% 27.42% 37.50%-0.05 -4.8 23
2009-01-31 @ Airdrie United W 1-049.6 1498 1455 37.50% 27.42% 35.08%+0.05 +4.8 35
2009-01-31 Queen of the South L 0-252.1 1539 1484 48.92% 25.87% 25.20%+0.31 -11.6 32
2009-01-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-052.1 1484 1539 25.20% 25.87% 48.92%-0.31 +11.6 27
2009-01-31 Ross County W 4-252.8 1499 1466 45.89% 26.54% 27.58%+0.23 +5.8 34
2009-01-31 @ Livingston L 2-452.8 1466 1499 27.58% 26.54% 45.89%-0.23 -5.8 28
2009-01-31 St. Johnstone D 0-060.5 1481 1576 28.47% 26.73% 44.81%-0.23 +0.5 29
2009-01-31 @ Greenock Morton D 0-060.5 1576 1481 44.81% 26.73% 28.47%+0.23 -0.5 38
2009-02-07 Dundee L 1-258.9 1505 1547 35.23% 27.43% 37.34%-0.04 -4.5 34
2009-02-07 @ Livingston W 2-158.9 1547 1505 37.34% 27.43% 35.23%+0.04 +4.5 34
2009-02-07 St. Johnstone D 2-270.2 1460 1575 26.28% 26.20% 47.51%-0.30 +0.4 29
2009-02-07 @ Ross County D 2-270.2 1575 1460 47.51% 26.20% 26.28%+0.30 -0.4 39
2009-02-14 Airdrie United W 4-040.2 1495 1450 47.66% 26.17% 26.17%+0.27 +13.5 30
2009-02-14 @ Queen of the South L 0-440.2 1450 1495 26.17% 26.17% 47.66%-0.27 -13.5 23
2009-02-14 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-363.6 1503 1527 37.85% 27.41% 34.74%+0.02 -4.5 35
2009-02-14 @ Partick Thistle W 3-263.6 1527 1503 34.74% 27.41% 37.85%-0.02 +4.5 35
2009-02-14 Livingston W 1-049.9 1575 1500 51.55% 25.16% 23.29%+0.38 +3.4 42
2009-02-14 @ St. Johnstone L 0-149.9 1500 1575 23.29% 25.16% 51.55%-0.38 -3.4 34
2009-02-21 Greenock Morton W 1-048.7 1498 1481 43.76% 26.89% 29.34%+0.17 +4.2 38
2009-02-21 @ Partick Thistle L 0-148.7 1481 1498 29.34% 26.89% 43.76%-0.17 -4.2 29
2009-02-21 Livingston W 4-148.6 1552 1497 48.92% 25.87% 25.21%+0.31 +8.5 37
2009-02-21 @ Dundee L 1-448.6 1497 1552 25.21% 25.87% 48.92%-0.31 -8.5 34
2009-02-21 Ross County L 1-260.8 1532 1461 51.05% 25.30% 23.64%+0.36 -6.0 35
2009-02-21 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-160.8 1461 1532 23.64% 25.30% 51.05%-0.36 +6.0 32
2009-02-21 St. Johnstone D 3-375.3 1509 1578 31.63% 27.21% 41.17%-0.14 +0.1 31
2009-02-21 @ Queen of the South D 3-375.3 1578 1509 41.17% 27.21% 31.63%+0.14 -0.1 43
2009-02-22 Clyde W 1-047.4 1436 1458 38.13% 27.40% 34.46%+0.03 +4.7 26
2009-02-22 @ Airdrie United L 0-147.4 1458 1436 34.46% 27.40% 38.13%-0.03 -4.7 27
2009-02-28 Airdrie United D 0-055.1 1467 1441 44.94% 26.71% 28.36%+0.20 -0.5 33
2009-02-28 @ Ross County D 0-055.1 1441 1467 28.36% 26.71% 44.94%-0.20 +0.5 27
2009-02-28 Dundee D 0-063.1 1578 1560 43.84% 26.88% 29.28%+0.17 -0.4 44
2009-02-28 @ St. Johnstone D 0-063.1 1560 1578 29.28% 26.88% 43.84%-0.17 +0.4 38
2009-02-28 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-158.0 1477 1526 34.34% 27.40% 38.26%-0.06 +4.8 32
2009-02-28 @ Greenock Morton L 1-258.0 1526 1477 38.26% 27.40% 34.34%+0.06 -4.8 35
2009-02-28 Partick Thistle L 2-457.5 1488 1503 39.27% 27.35% 33.38%+0.06 -7.6 34
2009-02-28 @ Livingston W 4-257.5 1503 1488 33.38% 27.35% 39.27%-0.06 +7.6 41
2009-02-28 Queen of the South D 1-161.6 1454 1509 33.47% 27.36% 39.18%-0.09 +0.2 28
2009-02-28 @ Clyde D 1-161.6 1509 1454 39.18% 27.36% 33.47%+0.09 -0.1 32
2009-03-03 Greenock Morton L 2-454.9 1454 1482 37.35% 27.43% 35.22%+0.01 -7.3 28
2009-03-03 @ Clyde W 4-254.9 1482 1454 35.22% 27.43% 37.35%-0.01 +7.3 35
2009-03-07 Clyde L 0-153.7 1510 1447 50.08% 25.57% 24.35%+0.34 -6.3 41
2009-03-07 @ Partick Thistle W 1-053.7 1447 1510 24.35% 25.57% 50.08%-0.34 +6.3 31
2009-03-07 Greenock Morton D 1-163.1 1509 1489 44.12% 26.84% 29.04%+0.18 -0.4 33
2009-03-07 @ Queen of the South D 1-163.1 1489 1509 29.04% 26.84% 44.12%-0.18 +0.4 36
2009-03-07 Livingston D 4-470.7 1441 1481 35.70% 27.43% 36.87%-0.03 +0.0 28
2009-03-07 @ Airdrie United D 4-470.7 1481 1441 36.87% 27.43% 35.70%+0.03 -0.0 35
2009-03-07 Ross County D 0-061.0 1578 1466 56.28% 23.55% 20.17%+0.51 -1.1 45
2009-03-07 @ St. Johnstone D 0-061.0 1466 1578 20.17% 23.55% 56.28%-0.51 +1.1 34
2009-03-10 Airdrie United D 0-056.0 1489 1441 47.97% 26.10% 25.93%+0.28 -0.7 37
2009-03-10 @ Greenock Morton D 0-056.0 1441 1489 25.93% 26.10% 47.97%-0.28 +0.7 29
2009-03-10 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-257.3 1481 1521 35.55% 27.43% 37.02%-0.03 +7.3 38
2009-03-10 @ Livingston L 2-457.3 1521 1481 37.02% 27.43% 35.55%+0.03 -7.3 35
2009-03-10 Partick Thistle L 0-246.8 1467 1504 36.09% 27.44% 36.48%-0.02 -9.2 34
2009-03-10 @ Ross County W 2-046.8 1504 1467 36.48% 27.44% 36.09%+0.02 +9.2 44
2009-03-10 Queen of the South L 2-367.8 1561 1509 48.52% 25.97% 25.51%+0.30 -5.5 38
2009-03-10 @ Dundee W 3-267.8 1509 1561 25.51% 25.97% 48.52%-0.30 +5.5 36
2009-03-10 St. Johnstone L 1-350.8 1453 1577 25.37% 25.93% 48.70%-0.33 -6.0 31
2009-03-10 @ Clyde W 3-150.8 1577 1453 48.70% 25.93% 25.37%+0.33 +6.0 48
2009-03-14 Clyde W 2-042.3 1489 1447 47.14% 26.28% 26.58%+0.26 +7.2 40
2009-03-14 @ Greenock Morton L 0-242.3 1447 1489 26.58% 26.28% 47.14%-0.26 -7.2 31
2009-03-14 Partick Thistle L 0-154.2 1514 1513 41.38% 27.18% 31.43%+0.11 -5.4 35
2009-03-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-054.2 1513 1514 31.43% 27.18% 41.38%-0.11 +5.4 47
2009-03-14 Queen of the South W 2-047.7 1442 1514 31.30% 27.17% 41.53%-0.15 +10.2 32
2009-03-14 @ Airdrie United L 0-247.7 1514 1442 41.53% 27.17% 31.30%+0.15 -10.2 36
2009-03-14 Ross County W 2-042.9 1555 1458 54.44% 24.22% 21.34%+0.46 +5.9 41
2009-03-14 @ Dundee L 0-242.9 1458 1555 21.34% 24.22% 54.44%-0.46 -5.9 34
2009-03-14 St. Johnstone W 1-056.6 1488 1583 28.54% 26.74% 44.72%-0.23 +5.7 41
2009-03-14 @ Livingston L 0-156.6 1583 1488 44.72% 26.74% 28.54%+0.23 -5.7 48
2009-03-21 Airdrie United W 3-040.4 1577 1452 57.92% 22.91% 19.17%+0.55 +7.7 51
2009-03-21 @ St. Johnstone L 0-340.4 1452 1577 19.17% 22.91% 57.92%-0.55 -7.7 32
2009-03-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-447.2 1440 1508 31.71% 27.21% 41.07%-0.13 -10.2 31
2009-03-21 @ Clyde W 4-147.2 1508 1440 41.07% 27.21% 31.71%+0.13 +10.2 38
2009-03-21 Greenock Morton D 1-161.1 1452 1496 35.08% 27.42% 37.50%-0.05 +0.1 35
2009-03-21 @ Ross County D 1-161.1 1496 1452 37.50% 27.42% 35.08%+0.05 -0.1 41
2009-03-21 Livingston D 3-372.1 1504 1494 42.74% 27.03% 30.23%+0.15 -0.2 37
2009-03-21 @ Queen of the South D 3-372.1 1494 1504 30.23% 27.03% 42.74%-0.15 +0.2 42
2009-03-22 Dundee D 1-165.9 1519 1561 35.24% 27.43% 37.33%-0.04 +0.1 48
2009-03-22 @ Partick Thistle D 1-165.9 1561 1519 37.33% 27.43% 35.24%+0.04 -0.1 42
2009-03-24 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-157.5 1452 1519 32.04% 27.25% 40.71%-0.13 +5.0 38
2009-03-24 @ Ross County L 1-257.5 1519 1452 40.71% 27.25% 32.04%+0.13 -5.0 38
2009-03-28 Dundee D 1-164.0 1457 1561 27.52% 26.52% 45.95%-0.26 +0.5 39
2009-03-28 @ Ross County D 1-164.0 1561 1457 45.95% 26.52% 27.52%+0.26 -0.5 43
2009-03-31 Dundee D 1-165.7 1513 1560 34.61% 27.41% 37.98%-0.06 +0.1 39
2009-03-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-165.7 1560 1513 37.98% 27.41% 34.61%+0.06 -0.1 44
2009-04-04 Dundee W 2-051.2 1496 1560 32.25% 27.27% 40.48%-0.12 +10.0 44
2009-04-04 @ Greenock Morton L 0-251.2 1560 1496 40.48% 27.27% 32.25%+0.12 -10.0 44
2009-04-04 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-161.5 1445 1514 31.68% 27.21% 41.11%-0.14 +0.2 33
2009-04-04 @ Airdrie United D 1-161.5 1514 1445 41.11% 27.21% 31.68%+0.14 -0.2 40
2009-04-04 Livingston L 0-147.7 1429 1494 32.25% 27.27% 40.48%-0.12 -4.5 31
2009-04-04 @ Clyde W 1-047.7 1494 1429 40.48% 27.27% 32.25%+0.12 +4.5 45
2009-04-04 Partick Thistle D 1-167.3 1585 1519 50.38% 25.49% 24.13%+0.35 -0.7 52
2009-04-04 @ St. Johnstone D 1-167.3 1519 1585 24.13% 25.49% 50.38%-0.35 +0.7 49
2009-04-04 Ross County L 1-258.9 1504 1458 47.66% 26.17% 26.17%+0.27 -5.7 37
2009-04-04 @ Queen of the South W 2-158.9 1458 1504 26.17% 26.17% 47.66%-0.27 +5.7 42
2009-04-07 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.3 1584 1513 50.99% 25.32% 23.69%+0.36 -0.8 53
2009-04-07 @ St. Johnstone D 0-062.3 1513 1584 23.69% 25.32% 50.99%-0.36 +0.8 41
2009-04-11 Airdrie United L 0-156.2 1550 1445 55.53% 23.83% 20.64%+0.49 -6.8 44
2009-04-11 @ Dundee W 1-056.2 1445 1550 20.64% 23.83% 55.53%-0.49 +6.8 36
2009-04-11 Clyde D 0-054.5 1464 1425 46.71% 26.37% 26.92%+0.25 -0.6 43
2009-04-11 @ Ross County D 0-054.5 1425 1464 26.92% 26.37% 46.71%-0.25 +0.6 32
2009-04-11 Greenock Morton L 0-249.2 1498 1506 40.24% 27.29% 32.47%+0.08 -10.0 45
2009-04-11 @ Livingston W 2-049.2 1506 1498 32.47% 27.29% 40.24%-0.08 +10.0 47
2009-04-11 Queen of the South L 0-250.8 1519 1498 44.32% 26.81% 28.87%+0.19 -10.7 49
2009-04-11 @ Partick Thistle W 2-050.8 1498 1519 28.87% 26.81% 44.32%-0.19 +10.7 40
2009-04-11 St. Johnstone L 1-355.5 1514 1583 31.70% 27.21% 41.09%-0.13 -7.2 41
2009-04-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-155.5 1583 1514 41.09% 27.21% 31.70%+0.13 +7.2 56
2009-04-18 Airdrie United W 3-041.1 1425 1452 37.57% 27.42% 35.01%+0.02 +13.1 35
2009-04-18 @ Clyde L 0-341.1 1452 1425 35.01% 27.42% 37.57%-0.02 -13.1 36
2009-04-18 Dundee L 0-152.0 1488 1544 33.49% 27.36% 39.15%-0.09 -4.6 45
2009-04-18 @ Livingston W 1-052.0 1544 1488 39.15% 27.36% 33.49%+0.09 +4.6 47
2009-04-18 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-351.9 1463 1507 35.04% 27.42% 37.54%-0.05 -7.8 43
2009-04-18 @ Ross County W 3-151.9 1507 1463 37.54% 27.42% 35.04%+0.05 +7.8 44
2009-04-18 Partick Thistle L 0-154.3 1516 1509 42.34% 27.08% 30.58%+0.14 -5.5 47
2009-04-18 @ Greenock Morton W 1-054.3 1509 1516 30.58% 27.08% 42.34%-0.14 +5.5 52
2009-04-19 Queen of the South L 2-369.7 1590 1509 52.44% 24.88% 22.67%+0.40 -5.8 56
2009-04-19 @ St. Johnstone W 3-269.7 1509 1590 22.67% 24.88% 52.44%-0.40 +5.8 43
2009-04-25 Clyde W 7-142.4 1514 1439 51.71% 25.11% 23.18%+0.38 +14.6 46
2009-04-25 @ Queen of the South L 1-742.4 1439 1514 23.18% 25.11% 51.71%-0.38 -14.6 35
2009-04-25 Livingston W 1-048.8 1514 1484 45.56% 26.60% 27.85%+0.22 +4.0 55
2009-04-25 @ Partick Thistle L 0-148.8 1484 1514 27.85% 26.60% 45.56%-0.22 -4.0 45
2009-04-25 Ross County W 1-047.1 1439 1455 38.95% 27.37% 33.68%+0.05 +4.6 39
2009-04-25 @ Airdrie United L 0-147.1 1455 1439 33.68% 27.37% 38.95%-0.05 -4.6 43
2009-04-25 St. Johnstone L 0-156.3 1548 1584 36.14% 27.44% 36.43%-0.02 -4.9 47
2009-04-25 @ Dundee W 1-056.3 1584 1548 36.43% 27.44% 36.14%+0.02 +4.9 59
2009-05-02 Airdrie United L 0-154.2 1518 1443 51.56% 25.15% 23.28%+0.38 -6.4 55
2009-05-02 @ Partick Thistle W 1-054.2 1443 1518 23.28% 25.15% 51.56%-0.38 +6.4 42
2009-05-02 Dundee W 2-049.8 1424 1543 25.82% 26.07% 48.12%-0.32 +11.5 38
2009-05-02 @ Clyde L 0-249.8 1543 1424 48.12% 26.07% 25.82%+0.32 -11.5 47
2009-05-02 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-349.4 1529 1515 43.34% 26.95% 29.71%+0.16 -15.3 46
2009-05-02 @ Queen of the South W 3-049.4 1515 1529 29.71% 26.95% 43.34%-0.16 +15.3 47
2009-05-02 Greenock Morton W 3-152.3 1589 1510 52.10% 24.99% 22.91%+0.39 +5.5 62
2009-05-02 @ St. Johnstone L 1-352.3 1510 1589 22.91% 24.99% 52.10%-0.39 -5.5 47
2009-05-02 Livingston D 2-266.0 1451 1480 37.14% 27.43% 35.43%+0.01 -0.0 44
2009-05-02 @ Ross County D 2-266.0 1480 1451 35.43% 27.43% 37.14%-0.01 +0.0 46
2009-05-05 Greenock Morton W 2-156.0 1530 1505 44.84% 26.72% 28.44%+0.20 +3.8 50
2009-05-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-256.0 1505 1530 28.44% 26.72% 44.84%-0.20 -3.8 47
2009-05-09 Clyde D 1-162.8 1534 1435 54.64% 24.15% 21.21%+0.46 -0.9 51
2009-05-09 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-162.8 1435 1534 21.21% 24.15% 54.64%-0.46 +0.9 39
2009-05-09 Partick Thistle W 4-044.9 1532 1512 44.15% 26.83% 29.02%+0.18 +14.8 50
2009-05-09 @ Dundee L 0-444.9 1512 1532 29.02% 26.83% 44.15%-0.18 -14.8 55
2009-05-09 Queen of the South D 2-268.3 1480 1514 36.45% 27.44% 36.11%-0.01 -0.0 47
2009-05-09 @ Livingston D 2-268.3 1514 1480 36.11% 27.44% 36.45%+0.01 +0.0 47
2009-05-09 Ross County L 0-249.3 1501 1451 48.32% 26.02% 25.66%+0.29 -11.5 47
2009-05-09 @ Greenock Morton W 2-049.3 1451 1501 25.66% 26.02% 48.32%-0.29 +11.5 47
2009-05-11 St. Johnstone L 0-442.7 1450 1595 23.29% 25.16% 51.55%-0.41 -12.2 42
2009-05-11 @ Airdrie United W 4-042.7 1595 1450 51.55% 25.16% 23.29%+0.41 +12.2 65

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2009-04-11 20.64% Airdrie United 1445 1 @ Dundee 1550 0
2 2008-10-18 21.00% Ross County 1452 2 @ Dundee 1553 1
3 2008-11-08 21.40% Greenock Morton 1445 4 @ Queen of the South 1541 1
4 2008-09-20 21.56% Livingston 1486 3 @ Dundee 1580 0
5 2008-11-22 22.62% Greenock Morton 1460 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1542 0
6 2009-04-19 22.67% Queen of the South 1509 3 @ St. Johnstone 1590 2
7 2008-08-30 22.79% Ross County 1436 1 @ Partick Thistle 1516 0
8 2008-11-22 22.99% Clyde 1440 2 @ Queen of the South 1518 0
9 2008-08-30 23.04% Clyde 1459 3 @ St. Johnstone 1537 2
10 2009-05-02 23.28% Airdrie United 1443 1 @ Partick Thistle 1518 0
11 2009-02-21 23.64% Ross County 1461 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1532 1
12 2009-03-07 24.35% Clyde 1447 1 @ Partick Thistle 1510 0
13 2008-08-16 24.69% Dunfermline Athletic 1512 3 @ St. Johnstone 1572 0
14 2009-01-31 25.20% Queen of the South 1484 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1539 0
15 2008-12-27 25.49% Ross County 1459 2 @ Partick Thistle 1511 0
16 2009-03-10 25.51% Queen of the South 1509 3 @ Dundee 1561 2
17 2009-05-09 25.66% Ross County 1451 2 @ Greenock Morton 1501 0
18 2009-05-02 25.82% @ Clyde 1424 2 Dundee 1543 0
19 2009-04-04 26.17% Ross County 1458 2 @ Queen of the South 1504 1
20 2008-08-30 26.43% Livingston 1485 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1529 1
21 2008-10-25 26.93% @ Greenock Morton 1438 2 Dundee 1546 0
22 2009-01-24 27.79% @ Airdrie United 1449 1 Dundee 1550 0
23 2008-12-13 28.37% @ Clyde 1452 1 Dundee 1548 0
24 2008-09-20 28.48% Clyde 1465 2 @ Airdrie United 1490 0
25 2009-03-14 28.54% @ Livingston 1488 1 St. Johnstone 1583 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2008-08-30 19.58 @ Airdrie United 5 1465 41.01% Greenock Morton 0 1467 31.77% 27.22%
2 2008-08-23 18.70 @ Partick Thistle 4 1497 33.10% St. Johnstone 0 1555 39.57% 27.33%
3 2008-09-20 18.22 Livingston 3 1486 21.56% @ Dundee 0 1580 54.11% 24.34%
4 2008-08-16 17.03 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1512 24.69% @ St. Johnstone 0 1572 49.61% 25.70%
5 2008-11-08 15.42 Greenock Morton 4 1445 21.40% @ Queen of the South 1 1541 54.35% 24.25%
6 2009-05-02 15.34 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1515 29.71% @ Queen of the South 0 1529 43.34% 26.95%
7 2009-05-09 14.78 @ Dundee 4 1532 44.15% Partick Thistle 0 1512 29.02% 26.83%
8 2008-10-04 14.71 @ Queen of the South 6 1539 45.18% Livingston 1 1511 28.16% 26.66%
9 2009-04-25 14.64 @ Queen of the South 7 1514 51.71% Clyde 1 1439 23.18% 25.11%
10 2009-02-14 13.54 @ Queen of the South 4 1495 47.66% Airdrie United 0 1450 26.17% 26.17%
11 2009-04-18 13.09 @ Clyde 3 1425 37.57% Airdrie United 0 1452 35.01% 27.42%
12 2008-11-01 12.40 @ Ross County 3 1450 40.13% Clyde 0 1458 32.58% 27.29%
13 2008-10-04 12.30 @ Ross County 3 1439 40.52% Greenock Morton 0 1445 32.22% 27.26%
14 2008-12-13 12.21 Livingston 4 1483 32.55% @ Ross County 1 1475 40.16% 27.29%
15 2009-05-11 12.18 St. Johnstone 4 1595 51.55% @ Airdrie United 0 1450 23.29% 25.16%
16 2008-11-22 12.16 Clyde 2 1440 22.99% @ Queen of the South 0 1518 51.98% 25.03%
17 2009-01-31 11.60 Queen of the South 2 1484 25.20% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1539 48.92% 25.87%
18 2008-12-27 11.53 Ross County 2 1459 25.49% @ Partick Thistle 0 1511 48.55% 25.97%
19 2009-05-09 11.48 Ross County 2 1451 25.66% @ Greenock Morton 0 1501 48.32% 26.02%
20 2009-05-02 11.45 @ Clyde 2 1424 25.82% Dundee 0 1543 48.12% 26.07%
21 2008-10-25 11.18 @ Greenock Morton 2 1438 26.93% Dundee 0 1546 46.69% 26.38%
22 2008-09-20 10.84 Clyde 2 1465 28.48% @ Airdrie United 0 1490 44.79% 26.73%
23 2009-04-11 10.74 Queen of the South 2 1498 28.87% @ Partick Thistle 0 1519 44.32% 26.81%
24 2008-10-18 10.69 @ Airdrie United 2 1464 29.10% Queen of the South 0 1554 44.05% 26.85%
25 2008-11-22 10.39 Ross County 2 1460 30.49% @ Airdrie United 0 1468 42.44% 27.07%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-02-21 75.3 @ Queen of the South 3 1509 31.63% St. Johnstone 3 1578 41.17% 27.21%
2 2008-12-20 74.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1541 52.08% Clyde 4 1462 22.92% 25.00%
3 2009-03-21 72.1 @ Queen of the South 3 1504 42.74% Livingston 3 1494 30.23% 27.03%
4 2008-09-20 71.0 @ Queen of the South 2 1530 40.69% St. Johnstone 2 1535 32.06% 27.25%
5 2009-03-07 70.7 @ Airdrie United 4 1441 35.70% Livingston 4 1481 36.87% 27.43%
6 2008-08-09 70.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1475 28.16% St. Johnstone 2 1573 45.17% 26.67%
7 2009-02-07 70.2 @ Ross County 2 1460 26.28% St. Johnstone 2 1575 47.51% 26.20%
8 2009-04-19 69.7 Queen of the South 3 1509 22.67% @ St. Johnstone 2 1590 52.44% 24.88%
9 2008-11-15 69.5 @ Clyde 2 1439 24.46% St. Johnstone 2 1572 49.92% 25.62%
10 2009-05-09 68.3 @ Livingston 2 1480 36.45% Queen of the South 2 1514 36.11% 27.44%
11 2009-01-24 67.9 @ Queen of the South 2 1484 39.30% Partick Thistle 2 1498 33.35% 27.35%
12 2009-01-24 67.8 @ Greenock Morton 2 1481 38.72% Livingston 2 1499 33.90% 27.38%
13 2009-03-10 67.8 Queen of the South 3 1509 25.51% @ Dundee 2 1561 48.52% 25.97%
14 2009-01-03 67.4 @ Greenock Morton 2 1480 40.10% Queen of the South 2 1488 32.61% 27.30%
15 2009-04-04 67.3 @ St. Johnstone 1 1585 50.38% Partick Thistle 1 1519 24.13% 25.49%
16 2008-11-29 67.2 @ Dundee 1 1548 37.97% St. Johnstone 1 1571 34.62% 27.41%
17 2009-05-02 66.0 @ Ross County 2 1451 37.14% Livingston 2 1480 35.43% 27.43%
18 2008-08-30 65.9 Clyde 3 1459 23.04% @ St. Johnstone 2 1537 51.91% 25.05%
19 2009-03-22 65.9 @ Partick Thistle 1 1519 35.24% Dundee 1 1561 37.33% 27.43%
20 2009-03-31 65.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1513 34.61% Dundee 1 1560 37.98% 27.41%
21 2008-08-16 65.2 @ Clyde 2 1464 45.24% Ross County 2 1435 28.10% 26.65%
22 2008-12-20 64.1 @ Airdrie United 1 1442 24.51% St. Johnstone 1 1574 49.85% 25.64%
23 2009-03-28 64.0 @ Ross County 1 1457 27.52% Dundee 1 1561 45.95% 26.52%
24 2008-11-01 63.9 @ Dundee 1 1535 49.68% Airdrie United 1 1475 24.64% 25.68%
25 2009-02-14 63.6 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1527 34.74% @ Partick Thistle 2 1503 37.85% 27.41%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-02-14 40.2 @ Queen of the South 4 1495 47.66% Airdrie United 0 1450 26.17% 26.17%
2 2009-03-21 40.4 @ St. Johnstone 3 1577 57.92% Airdrie United 0 1452 19.17% 22.91%
3 2008-10-04 40.5 @ Ross County 3 1439 40.52% Greenock Morton 0 1445 32.22% 27.26%
4 2009-04-18 41.1 @ Clyde 3 1425 37.57% Airdrie United 0 1452 35.01% 27.42%
5 2008-11-01 41.4 @ Ross County 3 1450 40.13% Clyde 0 1458 32.58% 27.29%
6 2008-08-09 42.1 @ Livingston 2 1469 44.90% Ross County 0 1443 28.39% 26.71%
7 2008-11-08 42.1 @ Partick Thistle 2 1501 48.96% Clyde 0 1446 25.18% 25.86%
8 2009-03-14 42.3 @ Greenock Morton 2 1489 47.14% Clyde 0 1447 26.58% 26.28%
9 2009-04-25 42.4 @ Queen of the South 7 1514 51.71% Clyde 1 1439 23.18% 25.11%
10 2008-08-30 42.5 @ Airdrie United 5 1465 41.01% Greenock Morton 0 1467 31.77% 27.22%
11 2009-05-11 42.7 St. Johnstone 4 1595 51.55% @ Airdrie United 0 1450 23.29% 25.16%
12 2009-03-14 42.9 @ Dundee 2 1555 54.44% Ross County 0 1458 21.34% 24.22%
13 2008-11-25 43.2 @ Greenock Morton 2 1467 42.64% Airdrie United 0 1457 30.32% 27.04%
14 2008-08-02 44.2 @ St. Johnstone 2 1567 53.82% Livingston 0 1475 21.74% 24.44%
15 2008-10-25 44.2 @ St. Johnstone 3 1554 48.61% Partick Thistle 0 1502 25.44% 25.95%
16 2009-01-24 44.7 @ Clyde 2 1453 38.12% Ross County 0 1475 34.47% 27.40%
17 2009-05-09 44.9 @ Dundee 4 1532 44.15% Partick Thistle 0 1512 29.02% 26.83%
18 2008-09-27 45.2 @ Ross County 2 1430 34.30% Airdrie United 0 1479 38.30% 27.40%
19 2008-09-03 45.6 @ Queen of the South 1 1528 52.94% Ross County 0 1442 22.34% 24.73%
20 2008-10-25 45.8 Queen of the South 2 1543 43.37% @ Ross County 0 1458 29.69% 26.95%
21 2008-11-01 46.2 @ Livingston 1 1487 46.70% Greenock Morton 0 1449 26.92% 26.38%
22 2008-12-16 46.2 @ Clyde 1 1458 42.97% Airdrie United 0 1446 30.03% 27.00%
23 2008-12-20 46.5 @ Livingston 2 1495 40.43% Queen of the South 0 1502 32.30% 27.27%
24 2008-12-30 46.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1471 37.21% Partick Thistle 0 1500 35.36% 27.43%
25 2008-10-04 46.6 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1529 40.04% @ Clyde 0 1467 32.66% 27.30%