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2009-10 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Inverness CT

73 pts

Relegated

Ayr United

31 pts

Airdrie United · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Inverness CT

9.56 points above expected

73 points · 63.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ayr United

14.57 points below expected

31 points · 45.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Inverness CT Promoted 36 21 10 5 73 72 32 +40 63.44 +9.56
2 Dundee 36 16 13 7 61 48 34 +14 60.23 +0.77
3 Dunfermline Athletic 36 17 7 12 58 54 44 +10 51.89 +6.11
4 Queen of the South 36 15 11 10 56 53 40 +13 55.72 +0.28
5 Ross County 36 15 11 10 56 46 44 +2 50.56 +5.44
6 Partick Thistle 36 14 6 16 48 43 40 +3 50.95 -2.95
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 9 16 42 36 47 -11 38.04 +3.96
8 Greenock Morton 36 11 4 21 37 40 65 -25 36.84 +0.16
9 Airdrie United Relegated 36 8 9 19 33 41 56 -15 36.75 -3.75
10 Ayr United Relegated 36 7 10 19 31 29 60 -31 45.57 -14.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Inverness CT 73 63.44 +9.56
2 Dunfermline Athletic 58 51.89 +6.11
3 Ross County 56 50.56 +5.44
4 Raith Rovers 42 38.04 +3.96
5 Dundee 61 60.23 +0.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ayr United 31 45.57 -14.57
2 Airdrie United 33 36.75 -3.75
3 Partick Thistle 48 50.95 -2.95
4 Greenock Morton 37 36.84 +0.16
5 Queen of the South 56 55.72 +0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 9 Mar 23 – May 1 1 in 125
2 Ross County 3 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 40
3 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Nov 7 – Dec 1 1 in 38
4 Raith Rovers 2 Aug 22 – Aug 29 1 in 23
5 Dundee 4 Dec 1 – Dec 19 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 4 Aug 29 – Sep 26 1 in 80
2 Partick Thistle 4 Mar 27 – Apr 17 1 in 65
3 Airdrie United 5 Sep 26 – Oct 24 1 in 55
4 Ayr United 4 Oct 17 – Nov 7 1 in 37
5 Greenock Morton 5 Oct 10 – Nov 7 1 in 35

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 21 Dec 5 – May 1 1 in 174
2 Ayr United 8 Feb 20 – Mar 27 1 in 91
3 Dundee 13 Sep 26 – Dec 26 1 in 63
4 Dunfermline Athletic 8 Oct 10 – Dec 1 1 in 56
5 Raith Rovers 6 Aug 8 – Sep 19 1 in 39

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 6 Mar 6 – Mar 30 1 in 40
2 Airdrie United 11 Aug 8 – Oct 24 1 in 28
3 Ayr United 8 Oct 10 – Nov 21 1 in 21
4 Ross County 5 Apr 6 – Apr 24 1 in 12
5 Partick Thistle 5 Mar 27 – Apr 19 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Inverness CT 1660 73 +56 15 9.9 +5.1
Dundee 1503 61 -3 7 8.1 -1.1
Dunfermline Athletic 1498 58 +7 9 7.5 +1.5
Queen of the South 1491 56 +6 8 9.0 -1.0
Ross County 1424 56 -32 6 8.0 -2.0
Partick Thistle 1420 48 +1 7 6.7 +0.3
Raith Rovers 1352 42 +25 7 4.5 +2.5
Greenock Morton 1340 37 -7 5 5.1 -0.1
Airdrie United 1410 33 +25 8 6.0 +2.0
Ayr United 1325 31 -50 3 5.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU AU DUN DA GM IC PT QOTS RR RC
Airdrie United —
2-2-0
4.42
2-1-1
3.01
0-1-3
3.61
1-0-3
5.01
0-1-3
2.97
1-0-3
3.66
0-2-2
3.94
2-1-1
5.37
0-1-3
4.26
Ayr United
0-2-2
6.44
 —
0-2-2
3.94
2-0-2
4.40
1-0-3
6.15
0-2-2
3.64
2-1-1
5.11
1-0-3
4.16
1-2-1
6.23
0-1-3
4.54
Dundee
1-1-2
8.00
2-2-0
6.95
 —
2-1-1
6.10
3-1-0
7.33
0-3-1
4.84
4-0-0
6.11
0-3-1
5.64
2-1-1
7.46
2-1-1
6.23
Dunfermline Athletic
3-1-0
7.31
2-0-2
6.47
1-1-2
4.75
 —
4-0-0
6.64
0-2-2
4.29
2-0-2
5.38
2-0-2
4.99
3-0-1
7.03
0-3-1
5.66
Greenock Morton
3-0-1
5.83
3-0-1
4.71
0-1-3
3.59
0-0-4
4.24
 —
0-0-4
3.03
1-0-3
4.10
2-1-1
3.41
2-1-1
5.02
0-1-3
4.19
Inverness CT
3-1-0
8.03
2-2-0
7.31
1-3-0
6.03
2-2-0
6.59
4-0-0
7.97
 —
2-0-2
6.57
2-1-1
6.10
4-0-0
7.68
1-1-2
7.09
Partick Thistle
3-0-1
7.25
1-1-2
5.74
0-0-4
4.74
2-0-2
5.47
3-0-1
6.78
2-0-2
4.29
 —
1-1-2
4.63
0-2-2
6.82
2-2-0
5.41
Queen of the South
2-2-0
6.95
3-0-1
6.72
1-3-0
5.19
2-0-2
5.85
1-1-2
7.52
1-1-2
4.75
2-1-1
6.22
 —
1-2-1
7.35
2-1-1
6.10
Raith Rovers
1-1-2
5.47
1-2-1
4.62
1-1-2
3.47
1-0-3
3.89
1-1-2
5.83
0-0-4
3.30
2-2-0
4.05
1-2-1
3.57
 —
3-0-1
3.77
Ross County
3-1-0
6.61
3-1-0
6.31
1-1-2
4.62
1-3-0
5.18
3-1-0
6.67
2-1-1
3.81
0-2-2
5.43
1-1-2
4.74
1-0-3
7.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.81 +10.4
Allowed 0.79 -11.1
Differential 0.93 +6.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%11.39%6.67%3.06%0.56%0.83%27.50%
111.39%13.33%7.50%3.33%1.67%0.28%37.50%
26.67%7.50%5.00%1.11%0.28%0.28%20.83%
33.06%3.33%1.11%1.67%0.28%0.28%9.72%
40.56%1.67%0.28%0.28%——2.78%
5+0.83%0.28%0.28%0.28%——1.67%
Total27.50%37.50%20.83%9.72%2.78%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.72
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.89%13.89%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
22.78%—2.78%—2.78%2.78%11.11%
38.33%2.78%———2.78%13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total16.67%41.67%27.78%2.78%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.56 -0.42
SD 1.13 1.30 1.78
CV 0.99 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—2.78%36.11%
113.89%16.67%8.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%52.78%
22.78%—2.78%———5.56%
32.78%——2.78%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%27.78%22.22%16.67%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.67 -0.86
SD 0.79 1.57 1.84
CV 0.98 0.94 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%11.11%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
116.67%19.44%2.78%———38.89%
211.11%5.56%13.89%———30.56%
32.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%41.67%22.22%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 0.94 +0.39
SD 0.93 0.83 1.25
CV 0.69 0.87 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
12.78%8.33%5.56%—2.78%—19.44%
28.33%19.44%2.78%2.78%——33.33%
3—11.11%—2.78%——13.89%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%55.56%19.44%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.22 +0.28
SD 1.21 0.90 1.54
CV 0.80 0.73 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.89%11.11%8.33%—2.78%36.11%
18.33%5.56%8.33%8.33%5.56%—36.11%
22.78%11.11%2.78%———16.67%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total13.89%30.56%27.78%19.44%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.81 -0.69
SD 1.21 1.24 1.92
CV 1.09 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%—————8.33%
119.44%11.11%5.56%5.56%——41.67%
28.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
35.56%5.56%—2.78%——13.89%
45.56%2.78%—2.78%——11.11%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total50.00%25.00%11.11%13.89%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.89 +1.11
SD 1.53 1.09 1.85
CV 0.77 1.23 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%25.00%8.33%———38.89%
15.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
213.89%11.11%5.56%———30.56%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4———————
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total27.78%41.67%25.00%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.11 +0.08
SD 1.31 0.95 1.66
CV 1.09 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—2.78%——13.89%
113.89%16.67%5.56%8.33%——44.44%
211.11%2.78%5.56%5.56%——25.00%
38.33%2.78%—2.78%——13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total38.89%30.56%11.11%19.44%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.11 +0.36
SD 1.00 1.14 1.55
CV 0.68 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%2.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%36.11%
111.11%13.89%13.89%———38.89%
25.56%8.33%2.78%———16.67%
32.78%———2.78%—5.56%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%19.44%5.56%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.31 -0.31
SD 1.01 1.26 1.72
CV 1.01 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%——25.00%
116.67%13.89%8.33%—2.78%—41.67%
2—13.89%5.56%———19.44%
3—5.56%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
4———————
5+———2.78%——2.78%
Total25.00%41.67%22.22%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.22 +0.06
SD 1.14 1.02 1.26
CV 0.89 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Inverness CT 1660 73 63.44 +9.56 91.0% 47 51 58 64 68 75 82
Dundee 1503 61 60.23 +0.77 56.0% 44 47 56 60 65 71 79
Dunfermline Athletic 1498 58 51.89 +6.11 75.0% 32 38 46 50 58 66 69
Queen of the South 1491 56 55.72 +0.28 57.0% 37 43 51 56 60 67 73
Ross County 1424 56 50.56 +5.44 81.0% 28 37 46 51 55 60 66
Partick Thistle 1420 48 50.95 -2.95 38.0% 33 37 45 51 55 66 73
Airdrie United 1410 33 36.75 -3.75 31.0% 20 26 32 37 41 46 54
Raith Rovers 1352 42 38.04 +3.96 76.0% 18 24 33 38 42 51 55
Greenock Morton 1340 37 36.84 +0.16 53.0% 20 25 31 37 42 49 52
Ayr United 1325 31 45.57 -14.57 1.0% 31 34 40 46 51 57 69

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.11%
Slight Edge
45.56%25.00%29.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
056.47500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.31 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
45%
Inverness CT, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.98 * Some Luck: 5.98 to 8.97 * Lucky: 8.97 to 11.96 * Wild Swing: 11.96 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.35 * A Surprise: 1.35 to 2.16 * Several Surprises: 2.16 to 2.97 * Many Surprises: 2.97 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.38 points
Some Luck
07.4819
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
Inverness CT
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Ayr United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 100.50
1.72
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Clear Edge
50%87%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.71
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.46
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.45
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.85
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Inverness CT45.00%28.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%3.00%—1.00%——
Dundee23.00%28.00%26.00%10.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%——
Dunfermline Athletic7.00%13.00%11.00%13.00%18.00%14.00%12.00%8.00%2.00%2.00%
Queen of the South13.00%19.00%19.00%20.00%11.00%9.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%—
Ross County2.00%5.00%17.00%20.00%19.00%15.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Partick Thistle9.00%5.00%10.00%17.00%18.00%19.00%13.00%2.00%5.00%2.00%
Raith Rovers——1.00%3.00%5.00%9.00%14.00%20.00%24.00%24.00%
Greenock Morton———1.00%2.00%6.00%11.00%24.00%22.00%34.00%
Airdrie United————3.00%5.00%13.00%23.00%25.00%31.00%
Ayr United1.00%2.00%4.00%11.00%12.00%16.00%19.00%14.00%15.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Inverness CT 45.00% 55.00% — —
Dundee 23.00% 77.00% — —
Queen of the South 13.00% 85.00% 2.00% —
Partick Thistle 9.00% 84.00% 5.00% 2.00%
Dunfermline Athletic 7.00% 89.00% 2.00% 2.00%
Ross County 2.00% 92.00% 5.00% 1.00%
Ayr United 1.00% 78.00% 15.00% 6.00%
Raith Rovers — 52.00% 24.00% 24.00%
Airdrie United — 44.00% 25.00% 31.00%
Greenock Morton — 44.00% 22.00% 34.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2009-08-08 Airdrie United W 2-149.4 1413 1397 42.57% 28.97% 28.46%+0.40 +7.4 3
2009-08-08 @ Ross County L 1-249.4 1397 1413 28.46% 28.97% 42.57%-0.40 -7.4 0
2009-08-08 Greenock Morton W 1-045.1 1470 1432 45.47% 28.62% 25.91%+0.51 +7.3 3
2009-08-08 @ Dundee L 0-145.1 1432 1470 25.91% 28.62% 45.47%-0.51 -7.3 0
2009-08-08 Inverness CT L 0-150.0 1461 1510 33.39% 29.29% 37.32%+0.04 -8.8 0
2009-08-08 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-050.0 1510 1461 37.32% 29.29% 33.39%-0.04 +8.8 3
2009-08-08 Partick Thistle D 1-160.1 1500 1437 48.68% 28.08% 23.23%+0.65 -1.3 1
2009-08-08 @ Ayr United D 1-160.1 1437 1500 23.23% 28.08% 48.68%-0.65 +1.3 1
2009-08-08 Raith Rovers D 1-156.4 1448 1356 52.23% 27.29% 20.48%+0.81 -1.7 1
2009-08-08 @ Queen of the South D 1-156.4 1356 1448 20.48% 27.29% 52.23%-0.81 +1.7 1
2009-08-15 Ayr United D 0-057.9 1519 1499 43.06% 28.92% 28.02%+0.42 -0.8 4
2009-08-15 @ Inverness CT D 0-057.9 1499 1519 28.02% 28.92% 43.06%-0.42 +0.8 2
2009-08-15 Dundee D 2-262.9 1357 1477 24.66% 28.40% 46.94%-0.34 +0.8 2
2009-08-15 @ Raith Rovers D 2-262.9 1477 1357 46.94% 28.40% 24.66%+0.34 -0.8 4
2009-08-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-244.1 1425 1452 36.45% 29.30% 34.25%+0.16 -17.7 0
2009-08-15 @ Greenock Morton W 2-044.1 1452 1425 34.25% 29.30% 36.45%-0.16 +17.7 3
2009-08-15 Queen of the South D 1-156.6 1390 1446 32.33% 29.25% 38.42%+0.00 +0.3 1
2009-08-15 @ Airdrie United D 1-156.6 1446 1390 38.42% 29.25% 32.33%+0.00 -0.3 2
2009-08-15 Ross County D 0-052.4 1438 1421 42.69% 28.96% 28.35%+0.40 -0.8 2
2009-08-15 @ Partick Thistle D 0-052.4 1421 1438 28.35% 28.96% 42.69%-0.40 +0.8 4
2009-08-22 Airdrie United W 2-038.7 1470 1390 50.73% 27.65% 21.62%+0.74 +11.8 6
2009-08-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-238.7 1390 1470 21.62% 27.65% 50.73%-0.74 -11.8 1
2009-08-22 Greenock Morton L 0-249.2 1500 1407 52.26% 27.28% 20.45%+0.81 -23.4 2
2009-08-22 @ Ayr United W 2-049.2 1407 1500 20.45% 27.28% 52.26%-0.81 +23.4 3
2009-08-22 Inverness CT D 2-267.9 1476 1518 34.46% 29.31% 36.24%+0.08 +0.1 5
2009-08-22 @ Dundee D 2-267.9 1518 1476 36.24% 29.31% 34.46%-0.08 -0.1 5
2009-08-22 Partick Thistle W 1-045.7 1446 1437 41.54% 29.06% 29.40%+0.35 +8.0 5
2009-08-22 @ Queen of the South L 0-145.7 1437 1446 29.40% 29.06% 41.54%-0.35 -8.0 2
2009-08-22 Raith Rovers L 0-148.5 1422 1358 48.69% 28.08% 23.23%+0.65 -11.7 4
2009-08-22 @ Ross County W 1-048.5 1358 1422 23.23% 28.08% 48.69%-0.65 +11.7 5
2009-08-29 Ayr United W 2-045.0 1454 1476 37.23% 29.29% 33.48%+0.19 +16.6 8
2009-08-29 @ Queen of the South L 0-245.0 1476 1454 33.48% 29.29% 37.23%-0.19 -16.6 2
2009-08-29 Dundee D 1-157.3 1378 1477 27.07% 28.80% 44.13%-0.23 +0.8 2
2009-08-29 @ Airdrie United D 1-157.3 1477 1378 44.13% 28.80% 27.07%+0.23 -0.9 6
2009-08-29 Greenock Morton W 5-040.7 1429 1430 40.17% 29.16% 30.66%+0.30 +36.5 5
2009-08-29 @ Partick Thistle L 0-540.7 1430 1429 30.66% 29.16% 40.17%-0.30 -36.5 3
2009-08-29 Raith Rovers L 0-248.0 1482 1370 54.48% 26.67% 18.84%+0.91 -24.2 6
2009-08-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-048.0 1370 1482 18.84% 26.67% 54.48%-0.91 +24.2 8
2009-08-29 Ross County L 1-356.3 1518 1410 54.06% 26.80% 19.14%+0.89 -20.8 5
2009-08-29 @ Inverness CT W 3-156.3 1410 1518 19.14% 26.80% 54.06%-0.89 +20.8 7
2009-09-12 Airdrie United D 1-157.2 1460 1379 50.81% 27.63% 21.55%+0.74 -1.5 3
2009-09-12 @ Ayr United D 1-157.2 1379 1460 21.55% 27.63% 50.81%-0.74 +1.5 3
2009-09-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.0 1476 1457 42.83% 28.94% 28.23%+0.41 +7.8 9
2009-09-12 @ Dundee L 0-147.0 1457 1476 28.23% 28.94% 42.83%-0.41 -7.8 6
2009-09-12 Inverness CT L 0-339.5 1394 1497 26.52% 28.72% 44.76%-0.25 -20.3 3
2009-09-12 @ Greenock Morton W 3-039.5 1497 1394 44.76% 28.72% 26.52%+0.25 +20.3 8
2009-09-12 Partick Thistle D 1-157.3 1394 1466 30.37% 29.14% 40.49%-0.08 +0.5 9
2009-09-12 @ Raith Rovers D 1-157.3 1466 1394 40.49% 29.14% 30.37%+0.08 -0.5 6
2009-09-12 Queen of the South W 3-259.4 1431 1471 34.65% 29.31% 36.05%+0.09 +8.3 10
2009-09-12 @ Ross County L 2-359.4 1471 1431 36.05% 29.31% 34.65%-0.09 -8.3 8
2009-09-19 Ayr United W 2-153.3 1439 1458 37.66% 29.28% 33.06%+0.20 +8.2 13
2009-09-19 @ Ross County L 1-253.3 1458 1439 33.06% 29.28% 37.66%-0.20 -8.2 3
2009-09-19 Dundee W 2-045.5 1462 1483 37.37% 29.29% 33.34%+0.19 +16.6 11
2009-09-19 @ Queen of the South L 0-245.5 1483 1462 33.34% 29.29% 37.37%-0.19 -16.6 9
2009-09-19 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-042.9 1465 1450 42.47% 28.98% 28.55%+0.39 +14.8 9
2009-09-19 @ Partick Thistle L 0-242.9 1450 1465 28.55% 28.98% 42.47%-0.39 -14.8 6
2009-09-19 Greenock Morton W 3-036.9 1395 1374 43.20% 28.90% 27.90%+0.42 +21.1 12
2009-09-19 @ Raith Rovers L 0-336.9 1374 1395 27.90% 28.90% 43.20%-0.42 -21.1 3
2009-09-19 Inverness CT D 1-158.8 1381 1517 22.92% 28.01% 49.07%-0.44 +1.3 4
2009-09-19 @ Airdrie United D 1-158.8 1517 1381 49.07% 28.01% 22.92%+0.44 -1.3 9
2009-09-26 Airdrie United W 1-043.8 1353 1382 36.18% 29.31% 34.52%+0.15 +9.0 6
2009-09-26 @ Greenock Morton L 0-143.8 1382 1353 34.52% 29.31% 36.18%-0.15 -9.0 4
2009-09-26 Partick Thistle L 2-365.4 1516 1480 45.17% 28.66% 26.17%+0.50 -9.9 9
2009-09-26 @ Inverness CT W 3-265.4 1480 1516 26.17% 28.66% 45.17%-0.50 +9.9 12
2009-09-26 Queen of the South L 1-447.8 1435 1479 34.06% 29.30% 36.64%+0.07 -20.6 6
2009-09-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-147.8 1479 1435 36.64% 29.30% 34.06%-0.07 +20.6 14
2009-09-26 Raith Rovers W 1-044.2 1450 1416 44.92% 28.70% 26.38%+0.49 +7.4 6
2009-09-26 @ Ayr United L 0-144.2 1416 1450 26.38% 28.70% 44.92%-0.49 -7.4 12
2009-09-26 Ross County W 2-042.7 1467 1447 43.00% 28.92% 28.07%+0.41 +14.6 12
2009-09-26 @ Dundee L 0-242.7 1447 1467 28.07% 28.92% 43.00%-0.41 -14.6 13
2009-10-03 Airdrie United W 2-037.4 1490 1373 55.11% 26.49% 18.41%+0.94 +10.2 15
2009-10-03 @ Partick Thistle L 0-237.4 1373 1490 18.41% 26.49% 55.11%-0.94 -10.2 4
2009-10-03 Greenock Morton L 2-363.5 1500 1362 57.46% 25.72% 16.82%+1.06 -12.0 14
2009-10-03 @ Queen of the South W 3-263.5 1362 1500 16.82% 25.72% 57.46%-1.06 +12.0 9
2009-10-10 Ayr United W 3-150.0 1414 1457 34.24% 29.30% 36.46%+0.07 +15.3 9
2009-10-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-350.0 1457 1414 36.46% 29.30% 34.24%-0.07 -15.3 6
2009-10-10 Partick Thistle W 2-046.7 1481 1500 37.71% 29.28% 33.01%+0.21 +16.5 15
2009-10-10 @ Dundee L 0-246.7 1500 1481 33.01% 29.28% 37.71%-0.21 -16.5 15
2009-10-10 Queen of the South L 1-356.0 1506 1488 42.84% 28.94% 28.22%+0.41 -17.3 9
2009-10-10 @ Inverness CT W 3-156.0 1488 1506 28.22% 28.94% 42.84%-0.41 +17.3 17
2009-10-10 Raith Rovers L 1-250.2 1363 1408 33.85% 29.30% 36.85%+0.06 -8.4 4
2009-10-10 @ Airdrie United W 2-150.2 1408 1363 36.85% 29.30% 33.85%-0.06 +8.4 15
2009-10-10 Ross County L 0-144.5 1374 1433 32.01% 29.24% 38.76%-0.01 -8.5 9
2009-10-10 @ Greenock Morton W 1-044.5 1433 1374 38.76% 29.24% 32.01%+0.01 +8.5 16
2009-10-13 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-052.7 1441 1430 41.93% 29.03% 29.04%+0.37 -0.7 17
2009-10-13 @ Ross County D 0-052.7 1430 1441 29.04% 29.03% 41.93%-0.37 +0.7 10
2009-10-13 Inverness CT L 0-146.7 1417 1489 30.31% 29.14% 40.55%-0.08 -8.2 15
2009-10-13 @ Raith Rovers W 1-046.7 1489 1417 40.55% 29.14% 30.31%+0.08 +8.2 12
2009-10-14 Dundee D 2-265.9 1442 1498 32.42% 29.26% 38.33%+0.00 +0.2 7
2009-10-14 @ Ayr United D 2-265.9 1498 1442 38.33% 29.26% 32.42%+0.00 -0.2 16
2009-10-17 Ayr United W 2-042.2 1484 1442 45.91% 28.56% 25.53%+0.53 +13.5 18
2009-10-17 @ Partick Thistle L 0-242.2 1442 1484 25.53% 28.56% 45.91%-0.53 -13.5 7
2009-10-17 Dundee L 0-143.0 1365 1498 23.32% 28.11% 48.57%-0.41 -6.7 9
2009-10-17 @ Greenock Morton W 1-043.0 1498 1365 48.57% 28.11% 23.32%+0.41 +6.7 19
2009-10-17 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-159.8 1497 1430 49.13% 28.00% 22.88%+0.67 -1.3 13
2009-10-17 @ Inverness CT D 1-159.8 1430 1497 22.88% 28.00% 49.13%-0.67 +1.3 11
2009-10-17 Queen of the South W 1-051.0 1409 1505 27.31% 28.83% 43.86%-0.22 +10.8 18
2009-10-17 @ Raith Rovers L 0-151.0 1505 1409 43.86% 28.83% 27.31%+0.22 -10.8 17
2009-10-17 Ross County L 0-143.1 1354 1441 28.53% 28.98% 42.49%-0.16 -7.8 4
2009-10-17 @ Airdrie United W 1-043.1 1441 1354 42.49% 28.98% 28.53%+0.16 +7.8 20
2009-10-24 Airdrie United W 3-033.9 1494 1347 58.50% 25.35% 16.15%+1.11 +13.0 20
2009-10-24 @ Queen of the South L 0-333.9 1347 1494 16.15% 25.35% 58.50%-1.11 -13.0 4
2009-10-24 Greenock Morton W 3-143.2 1432 1358 49.93% 27.83% 22.24%+0.70 +10.5 14
2009-10-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-343.2 1358 1432 22.24% 27.83% 49.93%-0.70 -10.4 9
2009-10-24 Inverness CT L 1-545.8 1428 1496 30.95% 29.18% 39.88%-0.06 -24.8 7
2009-10-24 @ Ayr United W 5-145.8 1496 1428 39.88% 29.18% 30.95%+0.06 +24.8 16
2009-10-24 Partick Thistle D 2-266.1 1448 1497 33.42% 29.29% 37.29%+0.04 +0.1 21
2009-10-24 @ Ross County D 2-266.1 1497 1448 37.29% 29.29% 33.42%-0.04 -0.1 19
2009-10-24 Raith Rovers W 2-150.1 1504 1419 51.36% 27.51% 21.13%+0.77 +5.8 22
2009-10-24 @ Dundee L 1-250.1 1419 1504 21.13% 27.51% 51.36%-0.77 -5.8 18
2009-10-31 Ayr United W 3-148.0 1334 1404 30.55% 29.15% 40.29%-0.07 +16.5 7
2009-10-31 @ Airdrie United L 1-348.0 1404 1334 40.29% 29.15% 30.55%+0.07 -16.5 7
2009-10-31 Dundee D 1-160.4 1442 1510 30.82% 29.17% 40.01%-0.06 +0.5 15
2009-10-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.4 1510 1442 40.01% 29.17% 30.82%+0.06 -0.5 23
2009-10-31 Greenock Morton W 4-139.1 1520 1348 61.12% 24.33% 14.55%+1.24 +9.8 19
2009-10-31 @ Inverness CT L 1-439.1 1348 1520 14.55% 24.33% 61.12%-1.24 -9.8 9
2009-10-31 Raith Rovers L 1-258.6 1497 1414 51.17% 27.55% 21.28%+0.76 -11.5 19
2009-10-31 @ Partick Thistle W 2-158.6 1414 1497 21.28% 27.55% 51.17%-0.76 +11.5 21
2009-10-31 Ross County W 2-042.6 1507 1448 48.11% 28.19% 23.70%+0.63 +12.7 23
2009-10-31 @ Queen of the South L 0-242.6 1448 1507 23.70% 28.19% 48.11%-0.63 -12.7 21
2009-11-07 Airdrie United W 2-145.5 1510 1350 59.78% 24.87% 15.35%+1.17 +4.2 26
2009-11-07 @ Dundee L 1-245.5 1350 1510 15.35% 24.87% 59.78%-1.17 -4.2 7
2009-11-07 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-253.8 1425 1442 37.88% 29.27% 32.85%+0.21 -9.1 21
2009-11-07 @ Raith Rovers W 2-153.8 1442 1425 32.85% 29.27% 37.88%-0.21 +9.1 18
2009-11-07 Inverness CT W 2-158.7 1436 1530 27.52% 28.86% 43.62%-0.21 +10.1 24
2009-11-07 @ Ross County L 1-258.7 1530 1436 43.62% 28.86% 27.52%+0.21 -10.1 19
2009-11-07 Partick Thistle L 0-237.8 1338 1486 21.87% 27.73% 50.40%-0.49 -11.9 9
2009-11-07 @ Greenock Morton W 2-037.8 1486 1338 50.40% 27.73% 21.87%+0.49 +11.9 22
2009-11-07 Queen of the South L 0-144.4 1387 1520 23.32% 28.11% 48.57%-0.41 -6.7 7
2009-11-07 @ Ayr United W 1-044.4 1520 1387 48.57% 28.11% 23.32%+0.41 +6.7 26
2009-11-14 Airdrie United W 2-035.7 1520 1346 61.32% 24.25% 14.43%+1.25 +8.0 22
2009-11-14 @ Inverness CT L 0-235.7 1346 1520 14.43% 24.25% 61.32%-1.25 -8.0 7
2009-11-14 Partick Thistle W 3-152.7 1452 1497 33.83% 29.30% 36.87%+0.06 +15.4 21
2009-11-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-352.7 1497 1452 36.87% 29.30% 33.83%-0.06 -15.4 22
2009-11-14 Queen of the South D 0-058.7 1514 1527 38.56% 29.25% 32.20%+0.24 -0.3 27
2009-11-14 @ Dundee D 0-058.7 1527 1514 32.20% 29.25% 38.56%-0.24 +0.4 27
2009-11-14 Raith Rovers W 5-041.7 1326 1416 28.09% 28.93% 42.98%-0.18 +46.7 12
2009-11-14 @ Greenock Morton L 0-541.7 1416 1326 42.98% 28.93% 28.09%+0.18 -46.7 21
2009-11-14 Ross County D 1-156.4 1381 1446 31.19% 29.19% 39.62%-0.05 +0.4 8
2009-11-14 @ Ayr United D 1-156.4 1446 1381 39.62% 29.19% 31.19%+0.05 -0.4 25
2009-11-21 Ayr United D 0-049.8 1369 1381 38.69% 29.24% 32.07%+0.24 -0.3 22
2009-11-21 @ Raith Rovers D 0-049.8 1381 1369 32.07% 29.24% 38.69%-0.24 +0.4 9
2009-11-21 Greenock Morton L 2-449.9 1338 1373 35.35% 29.31% 35.34%+0.12 -13.4 7
2009-11-21 @ Airdrie United W 4-249.9 1373 1338 35.34% 29.31% 35.35%-0.12 +13.4 15
2009-11-28 Inverness CT W 2-158.5 1482 1528 33.78% 29.30% 36.92%+0.06 +8.9 25
2009-11-28 @ Partick Thistle L 1-258.5 1528 1482 36.92% 29.30% 33.78%-0.06 -8.9 22
2009-12-01 Dundee L 0-148.8 1445 1514 30.81% 29.17% 40.01%-0.06 -8.3 25
2009-12-01 @ Ross County W 1-048.8 1514 1445 40.01% 29.17% 30.81%+0.06 +8.3 30
2009-12-01 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-260.9 1527 1467 48.27% 28.16% 23.57%+0.63 -11.0 27
2009-12-01 @ Queen of the South W 2-160.9 1467 1527 23.57% 28.16% 48.27%-0.63 +11.0 24
2009-12-05 Dundee L 0-248.8 1491 1522 35.94% 29.31% 34.75%+0.14 -17.5 25
2009-12-05 @ Partick Thistle W 2-048.8 1522 1491 34.75% 29.31% 35.94%-0.14 +17.5 33
2009-12-05 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-049.3 1381 1478 27.28% 28.83% 43.90%-0.22 +10.8 12
2009-12-05 @ Ayr United L 0-149.3 1478 1381 43.90% 28.83% 27.28%+0.22 -10.8 24
2009-12-05 Inverness CT D 1-163.4 1516 1519 39.86% 29.18% 30.96%+0.29 -0.4 28
2009-12-05 @ Queen of the South D 1-163.4 1519 1516 30.96% 29.18% 39.86%-0.29 +0.4 23
2009-12-08 Greenock Morton W 3-144.8 1437 1386 47.11% 28.37% 24.52%+0.58 +11.3 28
2009-12-08 @ Ross County L 1-344.8 1386 1437 24.52% 28.37% 47.11%-0.58 -11.3 15
2009-12-12 Ayr United W 3-144.7 1539 1392 58.46% 25.36% 16.18%+1.11 +7.8 36
2009-12-12 @ Dundee L 1-344.7 1392 1539 16.18% 25.36% 58.46%-1.11 -7.8 12
2009-12-12 Partick Thistle L 2-542.8 1324 1473 21.73% 27.68% 50.59%-0.50 -12.5 7
2009-12-12 @ Airdrie United W 5-242.8 1473 1324 50.59% 27.68% 21.73%+0.50 +12.5 28
2009-12-12 Queen of the South L 1-249.5 1375 1516 22.54% 27.91% 49.55%-0.46 -6.1 15
2009-12-12 @ Greenock Morton W 2-149.5 1516 1375 49.55% 27.91% 22.54%+0.46 +6.1 31
2009-12-12 Raith Rovers W 1-040.7 1520 1369 58.83% 25.23% 15.94%+1.13 +4.7 26
2009-12-12 @ Inverness CT L 0-140.7 1369 1520 15.94% 25.23% 58.83%-1.13 -4.7 22
2009-12-12 Ross County D 3-368.9 1467 1448 42.88% 28.94% 28.19%+0.41 -0.5 25
2009-12-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 3-368.9 1448 1467 28.19% 28.94% 42.88%-0.41 +0.5 29
2009-12-15 Airdrie United D 1-154.0 1364 1312 47.31% 28.34% 24.36%+0.59 -1.2 23
2009-12-15 @ Raith Rovers D 1-154.0 1312 1364 24.36% 28.34% 47.31%-0.59 +1.2 8
2009-12-19 Airdrie United W 5-345.6 1449 1313 57.22% 25.80% 16.98%+1.04 +6.9 32
2009-12-19 @ Ross County L 3-545.6 1313 1449 16.98% 25.80% 57.22%-1.04 -6.9 8
2009-12-19 Greenock Morton W 3-143.2 1547 1369 61.71% 24.09% 14.20%+1.27 +6.8 39
2009-12-19 @ Dundee L 1-343.2 1369 1547 14.20% 24.09% 61.71%-1.27 -6.8 15
2009-12-19 Inverness CT D 0-056.8 1467 1524 32.21% 29.25% 38.55%-0.01 +0.3 26
2009-12-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-056.8 1524 1467 38.55% 29.25% 32.21%+0.01 -0.3 27
2009-12-26 Dundee D 1-164.9 1524 1554 36.10% 29.31% 34.59%+0.14 -0.1 28
2009-12-26 @ Inverness CT D 1-164.9 1554 1524 34.59% 29.31% 36.10%-0.14 +0.1 40
2009-12-26 Queen of the South D 2-268.4 1486 1522 35.27% 29.31% 35.42%+0.11 +0.0 29
2009-12-26 @ Partick Thistle D 2-268.4 1522 1486 35.42% 29.31% 35.27%-0.11 +0.0 32
2010-01-03 Dundee W 1-053.2 1306 1554 14.25% 24.12% 61.63%-1.04 +14.2 11
2010-01-03 @ Airdrie United L 0-153.2 1554 1306 61.63% 24.12% 14.25%+1.04 -14.2 40
2010-01-04 Greenock Morton W 1-040.4 1486 1362 55.88% 26.25% 17.87%+0.98 +5.2 32
2010-01-04 @ Partick Thistle L 0-140.4 1362 1486 17.87% 26.25% 55.88%-0.98 -5.2 15
2010-01-16 Partick Thistle W 1-050.2 1363 1491 23.79% 28.21% 48.00%-0.39 +11.6 26
2010-01-16 @ Raith Rovers L 0-150.2 1491 1363 48.00% 28.21% 23.79%+0.39 -11.6 32
2010-01-17 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-258.7 1540 1467 49.87% 27.84% 22.29%+0.70 +5.7 43
2010-01-17 @ Dundee L 2-358.7 1467 1540 22.29% 27.84% 49.87%-0.70 -5.7 26
2010-01-23 Ayr United W 1-042.0 1456 1384 49.71% 27.88% 22.41%+0.69 +6.4 35
2010-01-23 @ Ross County L 0-142.0 1384 1456 22.41% 27.88% 49.71%-0.69 -6.4 12
2010-01-23 Dundee D 1-164.6 1522 1546 36.95% 29.30% 33.75%+0.18 -0.2 33
2010-01-23 @ Queen of the South D 1-164.6 1546 1522 33.75% 29.30% 36.95%-0.18 +0.2 44
2010-01-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-451.3 1480 1461 42.82% 28.94% 28.23%+0.41 -24.4 32
2010-01-23 @ Partick Thistle W 4-151.3 1461 1480 28.23% 28.94% 42.82%-0.41 +24.4 29
2010-01-23 Greenock Morton L 1-252.1 1375 1357 42.76% 28.95% 28.30%+0.40 -9.9 26
2010-01-23 @ Raith Rovers W 2-152.1 1357 1375 28.30% 28.95% 42.76%-0.40 +10.0 18
2010-01-23 Inverness CT L 0-140.0 1320 1524 17.17% 25.90% 56.93%-0.80 -5.0 11
2010-01-23 @ Airdrie United W 1-040.0 1524 1320 56.93% 25.90% 17.17%+0.80 +5.0 31
2010-01-30 Partick Thistle W 2-152.7 1529 1455 49.99% 27.82% 22.19%+0.71 +6.0 34
2010-01-30 @ Inverness CT L 1-252.7 1455 1529 22.19% 27.82% 49.99%-0.71 -6.0 32
2010-01-30 Ross County L 0-156.2 1546 1462 51.17% 27.55% 21.28%+0.76 -12.2 44
2010-01-30 @ Dundee W 1-056.2 1462 1546 21.28% 27.55% 51.17%-0.76 +12.2 38
2010-02-13 Airdrie United W 2-034.5 1449 1315 57.00% 25.88% 17.12%+1.03 +9.5 35
2010-02-13 @ Partick Thistle L 0-234.5 1315 1449 17.12% 25.88% 57.00%-1.03 -9.5 11
2010-02-13 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-266.7 1474 1486 38.75% 29.24% 32.02%+0.25 -0.2 39
2010-02-13 @ Ross County D 2-266.7 1486 1474 32.02% 29.24% 38.75%-0.25 +0.2 30
2010-02-13 Greenock Morton L 1-259.6 1521 1367 59.25% 25.07% 15.68%+1.15 -12.9 33
2010-02-13 @ Queen of the South W 2-159.6 1367 1521 15.68% 25.07% 59.25%-1.15 +12.9 21
2010-02-13 Inverness CT L 0-437.3 1365 1535 19.80% 27.05% 53.14%-0.62 -20.6 26
2010-02-13 @ Raith Rovers W 4-037.3 1535 1365 53.14% 27.05% 19.80%+0.62 +20.6 37
2010-02-16 Ayr United W 3-035.8 1508 1378 56.64% 26.00% 17.36%+1.02 +14.0 36
2010-02-16 @ Queen of the South L 0-335.8 1378 1508 17.36% 26.00% 56.64%-1.02 -14.0 12
2010-02-20 Ayr United L 0-151.8 1486 1364 55.68% 26.31% 18.01%+0.97 -13.0 30
2010-02-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-051.8 1364 1486 18.01% 26.31% 55.68%-0.97 +13.0 15
2010-02-20 Partick Thistle W 1-047.0 1534 1459 50.13% 27.79% 22.09%+0.71 +6.4 47
2010-02-20 @ Dundee L 0-147.0 1459 1534 22.09% 27.79% 50.13%-0.71 -6.4 35
2010-02-27 Ayr United D 3-370.9 1556 1377 61.75% 24.07% 14.18%+1.28 -1.6 38
2010-02-27 @ Inverness CT D 3-370.9 1377 1556 14.18% 24.07% 61.75%-1.28 +1.6 16
2010-02-27 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-250.2 1380 1473 27.69% 28.88% 43.44%-0.20 -7.2 21
2010-02-27 @ Greenock Morton W 2-150.2 1473 1380 43.44% 28.88% 27.69%+0.20 +7.2 33
2010-02-27 Ross County W 2-154.4 1452 1474 37.24% 29.29% 33.47%+0.19 +8.3 38
2010-02-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-254.4 1474 1452 33.47% 29.29% 37.24%-0.19 -8.3 39
2010-03-06 Airdrie United W 2-033.7 1480 1306 61.30% 24.26% 14.44%+1.25 +8.0 36
2010-03-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-233.7 1306 1480 14.44% 24.26% 61.30%-1.25 -8.0 11
2010-03-06 Greenock Morton W 2-039.0 1379 1373 41.16% 29.09% 29.75%+0.34 +15.2 19
2010-03-06 @ Ayr United L 0-239.0 1373 1379 29.75% 29.09% 41.16%-0.34 -15.2 21
2010-03-06 Inverness CT D 2-271.5 1540 1554 38.34% 29.25% 32.41%+0.23 -0.2 48
2010-03-06 @ Dundee D 2-271.5 1554 1540 32.41% 29.25% 38.34%-0.23 +0.2 39
2010-03-06 Partick Thistle W 1-047.1 1522 1461 48.51% 28.12% 23.37%+0.64 +6.7 39
2010-03-06 @ Queen of the South L 0-147.1 1461 1522 23.37% 28.12% 48.51%-0.64 -6.7 38
2010-03-06 Raith Rovers W 1-039.5 1466 1344 55.66% 26.32% 18.03%+0.97 +5.3 42
2010-03-06 @ Ross County L 0-139.5 1344 1466 18.03% 26.32% 55.66%-0.97 -5.3 26
2010-03-09 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-156.3 1298 1488 18.18% 26.38% 55.44%-0.73 +2.0 12
2010-03-09 @ Airdrie United D 1-156.3 1488 1298 55.44% 26.38% 18.18%+0.73 -2.0 37
2010-03-09 Queen of the South W 3-154.6 1554 1529 43.74% 28.84% 27.41%+0.44 +12.4 42
2010-03-09 @ Inverness CT L 1-354.6 1529 1554 27.41% 28.84% 43.74%-0.44 -12.4 39
2010-03-09 Ross County W 2-155.1 1339 1471 23.35% 28.11% 48.54%-0.41 +11.0 29
2010-03-09 @ Raith Rovers L 1-255.1 1471 1339 48.54% 28.11% 23.35%+0.41 -11.0 42
2010-03-10 Partick Thistle W 1-047.6 1394 1454 31.88% 29.23% 38.89%-0.02 +9.8 22
2010-03-10 @ Ayr United L 0-147.6 1454 1394 38.89% 29.23% 31.88%+0.02 -9.8 38
2010-03-13 Ayr United D 1-154.2 1300 1404 26.44% 28.71% 44.86%-0.26 +0.9 13
2010-03-13 @ Airdrie United D 1-154.2 1404 1300 44.86% 28.71% 26.44%+0.26 -0.9 23
2010-03-13 Greenock Morton W 1-040.1 1567 1357 64.80% 22.71% 12.49%+1.44 +3.6 45
2010-03-13 @ Inverness CT L 0-140.1 1357 1567 12.49% 22.71% 64.80%-1.44 -3.6 21
2010-03-13 Queen of the South W 3-154.0 1486 1517 36.00% 29.31% 34.69%+0.14 +14.8 40
2010-03-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-354.0 1517 1486 34.69% 29.31% 36.00%-0.14 -14.8 39
2010-03-16 Raith Rovers W 2-145.5 1501 1350 58.87% 25.21% 15.92%+1.13 +4.4 43
2010-03-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-245.5 1350 1501 15.92% 25.21% 58.87%-1.13 -4.4 29
2010-03-17 Airdrie United W 2-145.4 1354 1301 47.38% 28.32% 24.30%+0.59 +6.5 24
2010-03-17 @ Greenock Morton L 1-245.4 1301 1354 24.30% 28.32% 47.38%-0.59 -6.5 13
2010-03-17 Dundee D 1-160.4 1403 1540 22.90% 28.00% 49.10%-0.44 +1.3 24
2010-03-17 @ Ayr United D 1-160.4 1540 1403 49.10% 28.00% 22.90%+0.44 -1.4 49
2010-03-20 Airdrie United L 0-348.0 1538 1294 68.08% 21.10% 10.83%+1.63 -41.8 49
2010-03-20 @ Dundee W 3-048.0 1294 1538 10.83% 21.10% 68.08%-1.63 +41.8 16
2010-03-20 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-247.6 1345 1505 20.72% 27.37% 51.91%-0.56 -5.7 29
2010-03-20 @ Raith Rovers W 2-147.6 1505 1345 51.91% 27.37% 20.72%+0.56 +5.7 46
2010-03-20 Inverness CT D 0-058.5 1460 1570 25.73% 28.59% 45.68%-0.29 +1.1 43
2010-03-20 @ Ross County D 0-058.5 1570 1460 45.68% 28.59% 25.73%+0.29 -1.1 46
2010-03-20 Partick Thistle W 1-047.4 1360 1444 28.81% 29.00% 42.19%-0.15 +10.4 27
2010-03-20 @ Greenock Morton L 0-147.4 1444 1360 42.19% 29.00% 28.81%+0.15 -10.4 38
2010-03-20 Queen of the South W 3-045.3 1404 1502 27.13% 28.81% 44.07%-0.22 +29.6 27
2010-03-20 @ Ayr United L 0-345.3 1502 1404 44.07% 28.81% 27.13%+0.22 -29.6 39
2010-03-23 Airdrie United W 4-033.3 1569 1336 67.06% 21.62% 11.33%+1.57 +11.5 49
2010-03-23 @ Inverness CT L 0-433.3 1336 1569 11.33% 21.62% 67.06%-1.57 -11.5 16
2010-03-23 Partick Thistle L 1-259.6 1511 1434 50.42% 27.72% 21.86%+0.73 -11.3 46
2010-03-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-159.6 1434 1511 21.86% 27.72% 50.42%-0.73 +11.3 41
2010-03-23 Queen of the South D 1-161.1 1496 1472 43.61% 28.86% 27.53%+0.44 -0.8 50
2010-03-23 @ Dundee D 1-161.1 1472 1496 27.53% 28.86% 43.61%-0.44 +0.8 40
2010-03-23 Raith Rovers D 1-154.3 1371 1340 44.52% 28.75% 26.73%+0.47 -0.9 28
2010-03-23 @ Greenock Morton D 1-154.3 1340 1371 26.73% 28.75% 44.52%-0.47 +0.9 30
2010-03-27 Ayr United D 1-155.3 1341 1434 27.69% 28.88% 43.43%-0.20 +0.8 31
2010-03-27 @ Raith Rovers D 1-155.3 1434 1341 43.43% 28.88% 27.69%+0.20 -0.8 28
2010-03-27 Dundee D 1-160.5 1461 1496 35.45% 29.31% 35.23%+0.12 -0.0 44
2010-03-27 @ Ross County D 1-160.5 1496 1461 35.23% 29.31% 35.45%-0.12 +0.0 51
2010-03-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-046.7 1473 1500 36.60% 29.30% 34.10%+0.16 +16.8 43
2010-03-27 @ Queen of the South L 0-246.7 1500 1473 34.10% 29.30% 36.60%-0.16 -16.8 46
2010-03-27 Greenock Morton W 3-038.5 1325 1370 33.92% 29.30% 36.78%+0.06 +25.8 19
2010-03-27 @ Airdrie United L 0-338.5 1370 1325 36.78% 29.30% 33.92%-0.06 -25.8 28
2010-03-27 Inverness CT L 0-148.6 1445 1581 23.02% 28.03% 48.94%-0.43 -6.6 41
2010-03-27 @ Partick Thistle W 1-048.6 1581 1445 48.94% 28.03% 23.02%+0.43 +6.6 52
2010-03-30 Ayr United W 1-047.0 1344 1433 28.19% 28.94% 42.87%-0.18 +10.6 31
2010-03-30 @ Greenock Morton L 0-147.0 1433 1344 42.87% 28.94% 28.19%+0.18 -10.6 28
2010-03-30 Dundee W 2-155.9 1483 1496 38.51% 29.25% 32.24%+0.24 +8.1 49
2010-03-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-255.9 1496 1483 32.24% 29.25% 38.51%-0.24 -8.1 51
2010-03-30 Ross County W 3-041.8 1587 1461 56.12% 26.17% 17.71%+0.99 +14.2 55
2010-03-30 @ Inverness CT L 0-341.8 1461 1587 17.71% 26.17% 56.12%-0.99 -14.2 44
2010-04-03 Ayr United W 3-038.9 1488 1422 48.94% 28.03% 23.02%+0.66 +18.0 54
2010-04-03 @ Dundee L 0-338.9 1422 1488 23.02% 28.03% 48.94%-0.66 -18.0 28
2010-04-03 Partick Thistle W 2-043.6 1350 1438 28.30% 28.95% 42.75%-0.17 +19.9 22
2010-04-03 @ Airdrie United L 0-243.6 1438 1350 42.75% 28.95% 28.30%+0.17 -19.9 41
2010-04-03 Queen of the South D 3-367.0 1354 1490 23.03% 28.04% 48.93%-0.43 +0.8 32
2010-04-03 @ Greenock Morton D 3-367.0 1490 1354 48.93% 28.04% 23.03%+0.43 -0.8 44
2010-04-03 Raith Rovers W 4-352.8 1601 1341 69.53% 20.34% 10.13%+1.72 +2.5 58
2010-04-03 @ Inverness CT L 3-452.8 1341 1601 10.13% 20.34% 69.53%-1.72 -2.5 31
2010-04-03 Ross County L 1-258.4 1491 1447 46.20% 28.51% 25.28%+0.54 -10.6 49
2010-04-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-158.4 1447 1491 25.28% 28.51% 46.20%-0.54 +10.6 47
2010-04-06 Inverness CT L 0-238.7 1355 1604 14.20% 24.09% 61.71%-1.04 -7.8 32
2010-04-06 @ Greenock Morton W 2-038.7 1604 1355 61.71% 24.09% 14.20%+1.04 +7.8 61
2010-04-06 Queen of the South D 1-160.1 1458 1489 35.86% 29.31% 34.83%+0.14 -0.0 48
2010-04-06 @ Ross County D 1-160.1 1489 1458 34.83% 29.31% 35.86%-0.14 +0.0 45
2010-04-07 Raith Rovers L 0-244.3 1404 1339 48.96% 28.03% 23.01%+0.66 -22.2 28
2010-04-07 @ Ayr United W 2-044.3 1339 1404 23.01% 28.03% 48.96%-0.66 +22.2 34
2010-04-10 Dundee L 0-146.7 1419 1506 28.42% 28.96% 42.62%-0.17 -7.8 41
2010-04-10 @ Partick Thistle W 1-046.7 1506 1419 42.62% 28.96% 28.42%+0.17 +7.8 57
2010-04-10 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-250.3 1382 1480 27.10% 28.80% 44.10%-0.23 -7.1 28
2010-04-10 @ Ayr United W 2-150.3 1480 1382 44.10% 28.80% 27.10%+0.23 +7.1 52
2010-04-10 Inverness CT L 1-354.2 1489 1612 24.38% 28.34% 47.29%-0.36 -11.3 45
2010-04-10 @ Queen of the South W 3-154.2 1612 1489 47.29% 28.34% 24.38%+0.36 +11.3 64
2010-04-12 Queen of the South L 0-143.5 1370 1478 26.00% 28.64% 45.37%-0.28 -7.3 22
2010-04-12 @ Airdrie United W 1-043.5 1478 1370 45.37% 28.64% 26.00%+0.28 +7.3 48
2010-04-13 Ross County D 1-156.1 1347 1458 25.73% 28.59% 45.68%-0.29 +1.0 33
2010-04-13 @ Greenock Morton D 1-156.1 1458 1347 45.68% 28.59% 25.73%+0.29 -1.0 49
2010-04-14 Raith Rovers W 3-036.9 1363 1361 40.59% 29.13% 30.28%+0.32 +22.4 25
2010-04-14 @ Airdrie United L 0-336.9 1361 1363 30.28% 29.13% 40.59%-0.32 -22.4 34
2010-04-17 Ayr United L 0-147.8 1411 1375 45.15% 28.67% 26.19%+0.50 -11.0 41
2010-04-17 @ Partick Thistle W 1-047.8 1375 1411 26.19% 28.67% 45.15%-0.50 +11.0 31
2010-04-17 Dundee D 2-264.0 1348 1513 20.27% 27.22% 52.51%-0.59 +1.3 34
2010-04-17 @ Greenock Morton D 2-264.0 1513 1348 52.51% 27.22% 20.27%+0.59 -1.3 58
2010-04-17 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-045.5 1623 1487 57.20% 25.81% 16.99%+1.04 +9.4 67
2010-04-17 @ Inverness CT L 0-245.5 1487 1623 16.99% 25.81% 57.20%-1.04 -9.4 52
2010-04-17 Raith Rovers W 3-033.5 1485 1339 58.39% 25.39% 16.22%+1.10 +13.0 51
2010-04-17 @ Queen of the South L 0-333.5 1339 1485 16.22% 25.39% 58.39%-1.10 -13.0 34
2010-04-17 Ross County D 1-156.8 1385 1457 30.42% 29.14% 40.43%-0.08 +0.5 26
2010-04-17 @ Airdrie United D 1-156.8 1457 1385 40.43% 29.14% 30.42%+0.08 -0.5 50
2010-04-19 Raith Rovers D 0-049.9 1400 1326 50.04% 27.81% 22.15%+0.71 -1.6 42
2010-04-19 @ Partick Thistle D 0-049.9 1326 1400 22.15% 27.81% 50.04%-0.71 +1.6 35
2010-04-20 Ross County W 1-046.8 1498 1456 46.00% 28.54% 25.46%+0.54 +7.2 54
2010-04-20 @ Queen of the South L 0-146.8 1456 1498 25.46% 28.54% 46.00%-0.54 -7.2 50
2010-04-21 Airdrie United L 1-445.9 1386 1386 40.34% 29.15% 30.51%+0.31 -23.3 31
2010-04-21 @ Ayr United W 4-145.9 1386 1386 30.51% 29.15% 40.34%-0.31 +23.3 29
2010-04-21 Dundee W 1-051.3 1327 1512 18.59% 26.57% 54.85%-0.70 +12.9 38
2010-04-21 @ Raith Rovers L 0-151.3 1512 1327 54.85% 26.57% 18.59%+0.70 -12.9 58
2010-04-24 Airdrie United D 2-265.7 1505 1409 52.70% 27.17% 20.13%+0.83 -1.3 55
2010-04-24 @ Queen of the South D 2-265.7 1409 1505 20.13% 27.17% 52.70%-0.83 +1.3 30
2010-04-24 Greenock Morton W 4-139.4 1478 1350 56.37% 26.09% 17.54%+1.00 +11.9 55
2010-04-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-439.4 1350 1478 17.54% 26.09% 56.37%-1.00 -11.9 34
2010-04-24 Inverness CT L 0-739.7 1363 1632 13.01% 23.16% 63.83%-1.16 -22.9 31
2010-04-24 @ Ayr United W 7-039.7 1632 1363 63.83% 23.16% 13.01%+1.16 +22.9 70
2010-04-24 Partick Thistle L 1-255.7 1449 1398 47.11% 28.37% 24.52%+0.58 -10.7 50
2010-04-24 @ Ross County W 2-155.7 1398 1449 24.52% 28.37% 47.11%-0.58 +10.7 45
2010-04-24 Raith Rovers W 2-035.4 1499 1340 59.74% 24.88% 15.38%+1.17 +8.5 61
2010-04-24 @ Dundee L 0-235.4 1340 1499 15.38% 24.88% 59.74%-1.17 -8.5 38
2010-04-26 Airdrie United L 0-142.4 1332 1410 29.43% 29.06% 41.51%-0.12 -8.0 38
2010-04-26 @ Raith Rovers W 1-042.4 1410 1332 41.51% 29.06% 29.43%+0.12 +8.0 33
2010-04-26 Greenock Morton W 2-145.4 1438 1338 53.18% 27.04% 19.78%+0.85 +5.4 53
2010-04-26 @ Ross County L 1-245.4 1338 1438 19.78% 27.04% 53.18%-0.85 -5.4 34
2010-04-28 Queen of the South D 0-052.2 1324 1504 18.94% 26.71% 54.34%-0.67 +2.1 39
2010-04-28 @ Raith Rovers D 0-052.2 1504 1324 54.34% 26.71% 18.94%+0.67 -2.1 56
2010-04-28 Ross County L 0-142.1 1340 1444 26.45% 28.71% 44.85%-0.26 -7.4 31
2010-04-28 @ Ayr United W 1-042.1 1444 1340 44.85% 28.71% 26.45%+0.26 +7.4 56
2010-05-01 Ayr United W 2-147.7 1332 1332 40.31% 29.15% 30.54%+0.31 +7.8 37
2010-05-01 @ Greenock Morton L 1-247.7 1332 1332 30.54% 29.15% 40.31%-0.31 -7.8 31
2010-05-01 Dundee W 1-050.2 1655 1508 58.49% 25.35% 16.16%+1.11 +4.8 73
2010-05-01 @ Inverness CT L 0-150.2 1508 1655 16.16% 25.35% 58.49%-1.11 -4.7 61
2010-05-01 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-146.8 1418 1490 30.40% 29.14% 40.46%-0.08 -8.2 33
2010-05-01 @ Airdrie United W 1-046.8 1490 1418 40.46% 29.14% 30.40%+0.08 +8.2 58
2010-05-01 Queen of the South W 1-050.8 1409 1502 27.68% 28.88% 43.45%-0.20 +10.7 48
2010-05-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-150.8 1502 1409 43.45% 28.88% 27.68%+0.20 -10.7 56
2010-05-01 Ross County W 4-147.9 1326 1451 24.08% 28.28% 47.65%-0.37 +26.6 42
2010-05-01 @ Raith Rovers L 1-447.9 1451 1326 47.65% 28.28% 24.08%+0.37 -26.5 56

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2010-03-20 10.83% Airdrie United 1294 3 @ Dundee 1538 0
2 2010-01-03 14.25% @ Airdrie United 1306 1 Dundee 1554 0
3 2010-02-13 15.68% Greenock Morton 1367 2 @ Queen of the South 1521 1
4 2009-10-03 16.82% Greenock Morton 1362 3 @ Queen of the South 1500 2
5 2010-02-20 18.01% Ayr United 1364 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1486 0
6 2010-04-21 18.59% @ Raith Rovers 1327 1 Dundee 1512 0
7 2009-08-29 18.84% Raith Rovers 1370 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1482 0
8 2009-08-29 19.14% Ross County 1410 3 @ Inverness CT 1518 1
9 2009-08-22 20.45% Greenock Morton 1407 2 @ Ayr United 1500 0
10 2009-10-31 21.28% Raith Rovers 1414 2 @ Partick Thistle 1497 1
11 2010-01-30 21.28% Ross County 1462 1 @ Dundee 1546 0
12 2010-03-23 21.86% Partick Thistle 1434 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1511 1
13 2010-04-07 23.01% Raith Rovers 1339 2 @ Ayr United 1404 0
14 2009-08-22 23.23% Raith Rovers 1358 1 @ Ross County 1422 0
15 2010-03-09 23.35% @ Raith Rovers 1339 2 Ross County 1471 1
16 2009-12-01 23.57% Dunfermline Athletic 1467 2 @ Queen of the South 1527 1
17 2010-01-16 23.79% @ Raith Rovers 1363 1 Partick Thistle 1491 0
18 2010-05-01 24.08% @ Raith Rovers 1326 4 Ross County 1451 1
19 2010-04-24 24.52% Partick Thistle 1398 2 @ Ross County 1449 1
20 2010-04-03 25.28% Ross County 1447 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1491 1
21 2009-09-26 26.17% Partick Thistle 1480 3 @ Inverness CT 1516 2
22 2010-04-17 26.19% Ayr United 1375 1 @ Partick Thistle 1411 0
23 2010-03-20 27.13% @ Ayr United 1404 3 Queen of the South 1502 0
24 2009-12-05 27.28% @ Ayr United 1381 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1478 0
25 2009-10-17 27.31% @ Raith Rovers 1409 1 Queen of the South 1505 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2009-11-14 46.73 @ Greenock Morton 5 1326 28.09% Raith Rovers 0 1416 42.98% 28.93%
2 2010-03-20 41.83 Airdrie United 3 1294 10.83% @ Dundee 0 1538 68.08% 21.10%
3 2009-08-29 36.47 @ Partick Thistle 5 1429 40.17% Greenock Morton 0 1430 30.66% 29.16%
4 2010-03-20 29.59 @ Ayr United 3 1404 27.13% Queen of the South 0 1502 44.07% 28.81%
5 2010-05-01 26.55 @ Raith Rovers 4 1326 24.08% Ross County 1 1451 47.65% 28.28%
6 2010-03-27 25.83 @ Airdrie United 3 1325 33.92% Greenock Morton 0 1370 36.78% 29.30%
7 2009-10-24 24.83 Inverness CT 5 1496 39.88% @ Ayr United 1 1428 30.95% 29.18%
8 2010-01-23 24.41 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1461 28.23% @ Partick Thistle 1 1480 42.82% 28.94%
9 2009-08-29 24.18 Raith Rovers 2 1370 18.84% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1482 54.48% 26.67%
10 2009-08-22 23.37 Greenock Morton 2 1407 20.45% @ Ayr United 0 1500 52.26% 27.28%
11 2010-04-21 23.31 Airdrie United 4 1386 30.51% @ Ayr United 1 1386 40.34% 29.15%
12 2010-04-24 22.88 Inverness CT 7 1632 63.83% @ Ayr United 0 1363 13.01% 23.16%
13 2010-04-14 22.44 @ Airdrie United 3 1363 40.59% Raith Rovers 0 1361 30.28% 29.13%
14 2010-04-07 22.16 Raith Rovers 2 1339 23.01% @ Ayr United 0 1404 48.96% 28.03%
15 2009-09-19 21.07 @ Raith Rovers 3 1395 43.20% Greenock Morton 0 1374 27.90% 28.90%
16 2009-08-29 20.81 Ross County 3 1410 19.14% @ Inverness CT 1 1518 54.06% 26.80%
17 2010-02-13 20.64 Inverness CT 4 1535 53.14% @ Raith Rovers 0 1365 19.80% 27.05%
18 2009-09-26 20.62 Queen of the South 4 1479 36.64% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1435 34.06% 29.30%
19 2009-09-12 20.26 Inverness CT 3 1497 44.76% @ Greenock Morton 0 1394 26.52% 28.72%
20 2010-04-03 19.90 @ Airdrie United 2 1350 28.30% Partick Thistle 0 1438 42.75% 28.95%
21 2010-04-03 18.04 @ Dundee 3 1488 48.94% Ayr United 0 1422 23.02% 28.03%
22 2009-08-15 17.67 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1452 34.25% @ Greenock Morton 0 1425 36.45% 29.30%
23 2009-12-05 17.49 Dundee 2 1522 34.75% @ Partick Thistle 0 1491 35.94% 29.31%
24 2009-10-10 17.26 Queen of the South 3 1488 28.22% @ Inverness CT 1 1506 42.84% 28.94%
25 2010-03-27 16.85 @ Queen of the South 2 1473 36.60% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1500 34.10% 29.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-06 71.5 @ Dundee 2 1540 38.34% Inverness CT 2 1554 32.41% 29.25%
2 2010-02-27 70.9 @ Inverness CT 3 1556 61.75% Ayr United 3 1377 14.18% 24.07%
3 2009-12-12 68.9 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1467 42.88% Ross County 3 1448 28.19% 28.94%
4 2009-12-26 68.4 @ Partick Thistle 2 1486 35.27% Queen of the South 2 1522 35.42% 29.31%
5 2009-08-22 67.9 @ Dundee 2 1476 34.46% Inverness CT 2 1518 36.24% 29.31%
6 2010-04-03 67.0 @ Greenock Morton 3 1354 23.03% Queen of the South 3 1490 48.93% 28.04%
7 2010-02-13 66.7 @ Ross County 2 1474 38.75% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1486 32.02% 29.24%
8 2009-10-24 66.1 @ Ross County 2 1448 33.42% Partick Thistle 2 1497 37.29% 29.29%
9 2009-10-14 65.9 @ Ayr United 2 1442 32.42% Dundee 2 1498 38.33% 29.26%
10 2010-04-24 65.7 @ Queen of the South 2 1505 52.70% Airdrie United 2 1409 20.13% 27.17%
11 2009-09-26 65.4 Partick Thistle 3 1480 26.17% @ Inverness CT 2 1516 45.17% 28.66%
12 2009-12-26 64.9 @ Inverness CT 1 1524 36.10% Dundee 1 1554 34.59% 29.31%
13 2010-01-23 64.6 @ Queen of the South 1 1522 36.95% Dundee 1 1546 33.75% 29.30%
14 2010-04-17 64.0 @ Greenock Morton 2 1348 20.27% Dundee 2 1513 52.51% 27.22%
15 2009-10-03 63.5 Greenock Morton 3 1362 16.82% @ Queen of the South 2 1500 57.46% 25.72%
16 2009-12-05 63.4 @ Queen of the South 1 1516 39.86% Inverness CT 1 1519 30.96% 29.18%
17 2009-08-15 62.9 @ Raith Rovers 2 1357 24.66% Dundee 2 1477 46.94% 28.40%
18 2010-03-23 61.1 @ Dundee 1 1496 43.61% Queen of the South 1 1472 27.53% 28.86%
19 2009-12-01 60.9 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1467 23.57% @ Queen of the South 1 1527 48.27% 28.16%
20 2010-03-27 60.5 @ Ross County 1 1461 35.45% Dundee 1 1496 35.23% 29.31%
21 2009-10-31 60.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1442 30.82% Dundee 1 1510 40.01% 29.17%
22 2010-03-17 60.4 @ Ayr United 1 1403 22.90% Dundee 1 1540 49.10% 28.00%
23 2009-08-08 60.1 @ Ayr United 1 1500 48.68% Partick Thistle 1 1437 23.23% 28.08%
24 2010-04-06 60.1 @ Ross County 1 1458 35.86% Queen of the South 1 1489 34.83% 29.31%
25 2009-10-17 59.8 @ Inverness CT 1 1497 49.13% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1430 22.88% 28.00%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-03-23 33.3 @ Inverness CT 4 1569 67.06% Airdrie United 0 1336 11.33% 21.62%
2 2010-04-17 33.5 @ Queen of the South 3 1485 58.39% Raith Rovers 0 1339 16.22% 25.39%
3 2010-03-06 33.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1480 61.30% Airdrie United 0 1306 14.44% 24.26%
4 2009-10-24 33.9 @ Queen of the South 3 1494 58.50% Airdrie United 0 1347 16.15% 25.35%
5 2010-02-13 34.5 @ Partick Thistle 2 1449 57.00% Airdrie United 0 1315 17.12% 25.88%
6 2010-04-24 35.4 @ Dundee 2 1499 59.74% Raith Rovers 0 1340 15.38% 24.88%
7 2009-11-14 35.7 @ Inverness CT 2 1520 61.32% Airdrie United 0 1346 14.43% 24.25%
8 2010-02-16 35.8 @ Queen of the South 3 1508 56.64% Ayr United 0 1378 17.36% 26.00%
9 2009-09-19 36.9 @ Raith Rovers 3 1395 43.20% Greenock Morton 0 1374 27.90% 28.90%
10 2010-04-14 36.9 @ Airdrie United 3 1363 40.59% Raith Rovers 0 1361 30.28% 29.13%
11 2010-02-13 37.3 Inverness CT 4 1535 53.14% @ Raith Rovers 0 1365 19.80% 27.05%
12 2009-10-03 37.4 @ Partick Thistle 2 1490 55.11% Airdrie United 0 1373 18.41% 26.49%
13 2009-11-07 37.8 Partick Thistle 2 1486 50.40% @ Greenock Morton 0 1338 21.87% 27.73%
14 2010-03-27 38.5 @ Airdrie United 3 1325 33.92% Greenock Morton 0 1370 36.78% 29.30%
15 2009-08-22 38.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1470 50.73% Airdrie United 0 1390 21.62% 27.65%
16 2010-04-06 38.7 Inverness CT 2 1604 61.71% @ Greenock Morton 0 1355 14.20% 24.09%
17 2010-04-03 38.9 @ Dundee 3 1488 48.94% Ayr United 0 1422 23.02% 28.03%
18 2010-03-06 39.0 @ Ayr United 2 1379 41.16% Greenock Morton 0 1373 29.75% 29.09%
19 2009-10-31 39.1 @ Inverness CT 4 1520 61.12% Greenock Morton 1 1348 14.55% 24.33%
20 2010-04-24 39.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1478 56.37% Greenock Morton 1 1350 17.54% 26.09%
21 2009-09-12 39.5 Inverness CT 3 1497 44.76% @ Greenock Morton 0 1394 26.52% 28.72%
22 2010-03-06 39.5 @ Ross County 1 1466 55.66% Raith Rovers 0 1344 18.03% 26.32%
23 2010-04-24 39.7 Inverness CT 7 1632 63.83% @ Ayr United 0 1363 13.01% 23.16%
24 2010-01-23 40.0 Inverness CT 1 1524 56.93% @ Airdrie United 0 1320 17.17% 25.90%
25 2010-03-13 40.1 @ Inverness CT 1 1567 64.80% Greenock Morton 0 1357 12.49% 22.71%