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2010-11 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Dunfermline Athletic

70 pts

Relegated

Stirling Albion

20 pts

Cowdenbeath · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Dunfermline Athletic

7.52 points above expected

70 points · 62.48 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dundee

17.60 points below expected

44 points · 61.60 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dunfermline Athletic Promoted 36 20 10 6 70 66 31 +35 62.48 +7.52
2 Raith Rovers 36 17 9 10 60 47 35 +12 53.90 +6.10
3 Falkirk 36 17 7 12 58 57 41 +16 59.02 -1.02
4 Queen of the South 36 14 7 15 49 54 53 +1 53.44 -4.44
5 Partick Thistle 36 12 11 13 47 44 39 +5 45.31 +1.69
6 Dundee* 36 19 12 5 44 54 34 +20 61.60 -17.60
7 Greenock Morton 36 11 10 15 43 39 43 -4 42.70 +0.30
8 Ross County 36 9 14 13 41 30 34 -4 43.37 -2.37
9 Cowdenbeath Relegated 36 9 8 19 35 41 72 -31 45.98 -10.98
10 Stirling Albion Relegated 36 4 8 24 20 32 82 -50 32.81 -12.81

* Point deductions: Dundee (-25 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dunfermline Athletic 70 62.48 +7.52
2 Raith Rovers 60 53.90 +6.10
3 Partick Thistle 47 45.31 +1.69
4 Greenock Morton 43 42.70 +0.30
5 Falkirk 58 59.02 -1.02

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee 44 61.60 -17.60
2 Stirling Albion 20 32.81 -12.81
3 Cowdenbeath 35 45.98 -10.98
4 Queen of the South 49 53.44 -4.44
5 Ross County 41 43.37 -2.37

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 4 Aug 7 – Aug 28 1 in 57
2 Dundee 6 Nov 6 – Jan 2 1 in 47
3 Dunfermline Athletic 6 Mar 29 – May 7 1 in 37
4 Ross County 3 Apr 26 – May 7 1 in 36
5 Partick Thistle 2 Oct 2 – Oct 16 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stirling Albion 7 Oct 30 – Feb 5 1 in 67
2 Partick Thistle 5 Aug 21 – Sep 25 1 in 40
3 Greenock Morton 4 Apr 16 – May 7 1 in 39
4 Cowdenbeath 4 Nov 13 – Jan 15 1 in 34
5 Raith Rovers 3 Apr 23 – May 7 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee 23 Oct 2 – Mar 26 1 in 1,796
2 Partick Thistle 8 Nov 13 – Feb 15 1 in 114
3 Ross County 7 Feb 5 – Mar 8 1 in 91
4 Raith Rovers 7 Aug 7 – Sep 25 1 in 38
5 Dunfermline Athletic 12 Mar 8 – May 7 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stirling Albion 25 Oct 30 – Apr 30 1 in 291
2 Ross County 11 Nov 13 – Mar 1 1 in 109
3 Dundee 5 Mar 19 – Apr 10 1 in 92
4 Queen of the South 6 Feb 22 – Mar 12 1 in 48
5 Cowdenbeath 10 Nov 13 – Mar 1 1 in 39

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dunfermline Athletic 1570 70 +64 15 9.3 +5.7
Dundee 1511 69 -17 10 10.1 -0.1
Raith Rovers 1407 60 -40 4 8.3 -4.3
Falkirk 1468 58 -12 9 9.1 -0.1
Queen of the South 1431 49 +9 7 6.5 +0.5
Partick Thistle 1444 47 +21 7 6.6 +0.4
Greenock Morton 1351 43 -21 3 6.1 -3.1
Ross County 1385 41 +40 10 5.4 +4.6
Cowdenbeath 1285 35 -16 5 5.5 -0.5
Stirling Albion 1189 20 +4 4 3.2 +0.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team COW DUN DA FAL GM PT QOTS RR RC SA
Cowdenbeath —
1-1-2
4.02
0-0-4
4.05
0-1-3
3.73
1-1-2
6.41
2-1-1
5.76
0-2-2
5.08
0-1-3
4.28
1-1-2
5.60
4-0-0
6.75
Dundee
2-1-1
7.14
 —
0-3-1
5.50
2-2-0
5.58
3-1-0
7.53
2-1-1
7.32
3-0-1
6.79
2-1-1
6.68
3-1-0
7.20
2-2-0
8.30
Dunfermline Athletic
4-0-0
7.08
1-3-0
5.59
 —
3-1-0
5.86
2-0-2
7.75
1-2-1
7.55
3-0-1
6.38
1-1-2
6.74
2-2-0
7.75
3-1-0
7.80
Falkirk
3-1-0
7.41
0-2-2
5.52
0-1-3
5.23
 —
2-2-0
7.44
2-0-2
6.80
3-0-1
6.16
2-1-1
6.35
1-0-3
7.33
4-0-0
7.93
Greenock Morton
2-1-1
4.70
0-1-3
3.60
2-0-2
3.39
0-2-2
3.68
 —
2-1-1
5.17
2-0-2
4.24
0-2-2
4.30
1-2-1
5.59
2-1-1
6.93
Partick Thistle
1-1-2
5.36
1-1-2
3.80
1-2-1
3.58
2-0-2
4.31
1-1-2
5.92
 —
1-2-1
4.52
2-1-1
5.06
1-3-0
5.73
2-0-2
6.15
Queen of the South
2-2-0
6.04
1-0-3
4.32
1-0-3
4.72
1-0-3
4.94
2-0-2
6.86
1-2-1
6.58
 —
2-0-2
5.44
2-1-1
6.46
2-2-0
8.16
Raith Rovers
3-1-0
6.85
1-1-2
4.43
2-1-1
4.36
1-1-2
4.75
2-2-0
6.80
1-1-2
6.04
2-0-2
5.66
 —
2-2-0
6.77
3-0-1
7.99
Ross County
2-1-1
5.51
0-1-3
3.92
0-2-2
3.39
3-0-1
3.80
1-2-1
5.50
0-3-1
5.37
1-1-2
4.64
0-2-2
4.34
 —
2-2-0
6.69
Stirling Albion
0-0-4
4.36
0-2-2
2.91
0-1-3
3.36
0-0-4
3.24
1-1-2
4.21
2-0-2
4.96
0-2-2
3.02
1-0-3
3.17
0-2-2
4.41
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +9.8
Allowed 0.60 -6.2
Differential 0.83 +5.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.67%7.78%6.94%3.89%0.83%0.56%31.67%
17.78%7.22%8.89%3.33%0.83%1.67%29.72%
26.94%8.89%6.67%1.11%0.56%—24.17%
33.89%3.33%1.11%1.11%0.28%—9.72%
40.83%0.83%0.56%0.28%——2.50%
5+0.56%1.67%————2.22%
Total31.67%29.72%24.17%9.72%2.50%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.22 1.22 1.81
CV 0.95 0.95 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%8.33%13.89%2.78%2.78%36.11%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—2.78%30.56%
2—11.11%13.89%———25.00%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total8.33%27.78%33.33%22.22%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.00 -0.86
SD 1.20 1.22 1.91
CV 1.05 0.61 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%2.78%—2.78%——16.67%
113.89%11.11%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
28.33%16.67%8.33%———33.33%
35.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%36.11%16.67%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.94 +0.56
SD 0.97 0.95 1.25
CV 0.65 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—8.33%———19.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
28.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%2.78%———13.89%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total41.67%33.33%22.22%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 0.86 +0.97
SD 1.56 0.87 1.86
CV 0.85 1.01 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%2.78%5.56%——30.56%
18.33%2.78%8.33%———19.44%
25.56%16.67%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
32.78%2.78%—2.78%——8.33%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total27.78%41.67%19.44%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.14 +0.44
SD 1.50 0.96 1.81
CV 0.95 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%13.89%—2.78%—41.67%
15.56%2.78%8.33%2.78%——19.44%
211.11%5.56%11.11%2.78%——30.56%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total33.33%25.00%33.33%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.19 -0.11
SD 1.11 1.06 1.60
CV 1.02 0.89 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.44%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—36.11%
18.33%8.33%13.89%———30.56%
211.11%——2.78%2.78%—16.67%
35.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total44.44%19.44%25.00%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.08 +0.14
SD 1.33 1.20 1.74
CV 1.09 1.11 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%2.78%5.56%11.11%2.78%5.56%33.33%
28.33%5.56%8.33%———22.22%
311.11%2.78%—2.78%——16.67%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%25.00%19.44%13.89%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.47 +0.03
SD 1.18 1.52 2.14
CV 0.79 1.03 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%5.56%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
111.11%2.78%13.89%———27.78%
25.56%19.44%8.33%———33.33%
32.78%5.56%————8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total36.11%33.33%27.78%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 0.97 +0.33
SD 1.06 0.88 1.43
CV 0.82 0.90 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.44%13.89%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
18.33%16.67%8.33%———33.33%
28.33%2.78%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%36.11%16.67%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 0.94 -0.11
SD 0.91 0.95 1.35
CV 1.09 1.01 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%11.11%8.33%—2.78%41.67%
1—8.33%8.33%8.33%5.56%8.33%38.89%
22.78%2.78%2.78%—2.78%—11.11%
3——2.78%—2.78%—5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total13.89%19.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.28 -1.39
SD 1.01 1.60 1.74
CV 1.13 0.70 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dunfermline Athletic 1570 70 62.48 +7.52 83.0% 45 51 57 62 68 75 81
Dundee 1511 44 61.60 -17.60 83.0% 42 50 57 62 67 72 79
Falkirk 1468 58 59.02 -1.02 50.0% 41 45 54 58 63 75 82
Partick Thistle 1444 47 45.31 +1.69 66.0% 31 35 41 45 48 56 61
Queen of the South 1431 49 53.44 -4.44 30.0% 28 41 49 53 58 67 74
Raith Rovers 1407 60 53.90 +6.10 79.0% 27 41 48 54 59 66 70
Ross County 1385 41 43.37 -2.37 39.0% 29 31 38 44 48 56 60
Greenock Morton 1351 43 42.70 +0.30 53.0% 23 28 36 43 48 57 73
Cowdenbeath 1285 35 45.98 -10.98 8.0% 26 33 41 46 52 57 66
Stirling Albion 1189 20 32.81 -12.81 5.0% 18 20 28 33 37 44 57

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
No Edge
40.56%26.67%32.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
219 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
Dunfermline Athletic, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Runaway
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.08 * Some Luck: 6.08 to 9.12 * Lucky: 9.12 to 12.16 * Wild Swing: 12.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.22 * A Surprise: 1.22 to 1.95 * Several Surprises: 1.95 to 2.68 * Many Surprises: 2.68 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.75 points
Some Luck
07.6019
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Close
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
83.00%
Dunfermline Athletic
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Stirling Albion
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 109.91
1.79
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Clear Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.85
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
-0.02
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.59
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.075
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dunfermline Athletic36.00%26.00%13.00%17.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%———
Raith Rovers5.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%2.00%4.00%1.00%
Falkirk16.00%21.00%25.00%15.00%9.00%4.00%8.00%2.00%——
Queen of the South8.00%7.00%15.00%20.00%17.00%16.00%4.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%
Partick Thistle—1.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%16.00%22.00%18.00%17.00%5.00%
Dundee33.00%26.00%15.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Greenock Morton1.00%1.00%4.00%2.00%11.00%15.00%15.00%18.00%25.00%8.00%
Ross County——5.00%5.00%6.00%12.00%20.00%22.00%20.00%10.00%
Cowdenbeath1.00%3.00%3.00%8.00%12.00%17.00%15.00%20.00%14.00%7.00%
Stirling Albion——1.00%——1.00%5.00%11.00%14.00%68.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Dunfermline Athletic 36.00% 64.00% — —
Dundee 33.00% 66.00% 1.00% —
Falkirk 16.00% 84.00% — —
Queen of the South 8.00% 86.00% 5.00% 1.00%
Raith Rovers 5.00% 90.00% 4.00% 1.00%
Partick Thistle — 78.00% 17.00% 5.00%
Cowdenbeath 1.00% 78.00% 14.00% 7.00%
Greenock Morton 1.00% 66.00% 25.00% 8.00%
Ross County — 70.00% 20.00% 10.00%
Stirling Albion — 18.00% 14.00% 68.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2010-08-07 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-147.4 1437 1426 42.07% 22.76% 35.17%+0.17 -9.8 0
2010-08-07 @ Falkirk W 1-047.4 1426 1437 35.17% 22.76% 42.07%-0.17 +9.8 3
2010-08-07 Partick Thistle W 4-038.7 1335 1377 34.66% 22.75% 42.59%-0.07 +35.3 3
2010-08-07 @ Raith Rovers L 0-438.7 1377 1335 42.59% 22.75% 34.66%+0.07 -35.3 0
2010-08-07 Queen of the South W 1-045.1 1429 1422 41.59% 22.77% 35.64%+0.16 +8.6 3
2010-08-07 @ Dundee L 0-145.1 1422 1429 35.64% 22.77% 41.59%-0.16 -8.6 0
2010-08-07 Ross County L 0-248.4 1500 1380 56.04% 21.73% 22.23%+0.67 -23.6 0
2010-08-07 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-048.4 1380 1500 22.23% 21.73% 56.04%-0.67 +23.6 3
2010-08-07 Stirling Albion D 0-051.7 1328 1406 29.93% 22.54% 47.52%-0.23 +1.0 1
2010-08-07 @ Greenock Morton D 0-051.7 1406 1328 47.52% 22.54% 29.93%+0.23 -1.0 1
2010-08-14 Cowdenbeath L 1-346.9 1405 1477 30.74% 22.59% 46.67%-0.20 -12.5 1
2010-08-14 @ Stirling Albion W 3-146.9 1477 1405 46.67% 22.59% 30.74%+0.20 +12.5 3
2010-08-14 Dundee W 1-047.6 1342 1438 27.80% 22.39% 49.81%-0.31 +11.3 3
2010-08-14 @ Partick Thistle L 0-147.6 1438 1342 49.81% 22.39% 27.80%+0.31 -11.3 3
2010-08-14 Falkirk L 0-145.1 1404 1427 37.27% 22.79% 39.94%+0.02 -8.9 3
2010-08-14 @ Ross County W 1-045.1 1427 1404 39.94% 22.79% 37.27%-0.02 +8.9 3
2010-08-14 Greenock Morton W 2-035.8 1436 1329 54.51% 21.92% 23.57%+0.61 +11.5 6
2010-08-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-235.8 1329 1436 23.57% 21.92% 54.51%-0.61 -11.5 1
2010-08-14 Raith Rovers L 1-349.1 1413 1371 46.44% 22.60% 30.96%+0.32 -17.3 0
2010-08-14 @ Queen of the South W 3-149.1 1371 1413 30.96% 22.60% 46.44%-0.32 +17.3 6
2010-08-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-044.1 1388 1447 32.34% 22.67% 44.99%-0.15 +19.5 9
2010-08-21 @ Raith Rovers L 0-244.1 1447 1388 44.99% 22.67% 32.34%+0.15 -19.5 6
2010-08-21 Partick Thistle W 2-040.2 1317 1353 35.50% 22.77% 41.73%-0.04 +18.3 4
2010-08-21 @ Greenock Morton L 0-240.2 1353 1317 41.73% 22.77% 35.50%+0.04 -18.3 3
2010-08-21 Ross County D 0-053.4 1426 1395 44.95% 22.67% 32.38%+0.27 -0.7 4
2010-08-21 @ Dundee D 0-053.4 1395 1426 32.38% 22.67% 44.95%-0.27 +0.7 4
2010-08-21 Stirling Albion W 3-037.7 1436 1393 46.51% 22.60% 30.89%+0.32 +21.0 6
2010-08-21 @ Falkirk L 0-337.7 1393 1436 30.89% 22.60% 46.51%-0.32 -21.0 1
2010-08-22 Queen of the South L 1-353.5 1489 1396 52.91% 22.10% 24.99%+0.55 -19.4 3
2010-08-22 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-153.5 1396 1489 24.99% 22.10% 52.91%-0.55 +19.4 3
2010-08-28 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-541.0 1372 1428 32.76% 22.69% 44.56%-0.13 -23.9 1
2010-08-28 @ Stirling Albion W 5-141.0 1428 1372 44.56% 22.69% 32.76%+0.13 +24.0 9
2010-08-28 Falkirk W 2-044.3 1426 1457 36.15% 22.78% 41.07%-0.02 +18.1 7
2010-08-28 @ Dundee L 0-244.3 1457 1426 41.07% 22.78% 36.15%+0.02 -18.1 6
2010-08-28 Greenock Morton W 1-040.2 1407 1336 50.24% 22.35% 27.41%+0.45 +6.9 12
2010-08-28 @ Raith Rovers L 0-140.2 1336 1407 27.41% 22.35% 50.24%-0.45 -6.9 4
2010-08-28 Partick Thistle W 2-144.8 1470 1335 57.71% 21.48% 20.81%+0.74 +5.1 6
2010-08-28 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-244.8 1335 1470 20.81% 21.48% 57.71%-0.74 -5.1 3
2010-08-28 Ross County W 3-038.2 1415 1396 43.33% 22.73% 33.94%+0.21 +22.6 6
2010-08-28 @ Queen of the South L 0-338.2 1396 1415 33.94% 22.73% 43.33%-0.21 -22.6 4
2010-09-11 Cowdenbeath L 1-245.4 1329 1475 22.36% 21.75% 55.89%-0.54 -5.5 4
2010-09-11 @ Greenock Morton W 2-145.4 1475 1329 55.89% 21.75% 22.36%+0.54 +5.5 9
2010-09-11 Dundee W 3-148.8 1452 1444 41.68% 22.77% 35.56%+0.16 +14.0 12
2010-09-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-348.8 1444 1452 35.56% 22.77% 41.68%-0.16 -14.0 7
2010-09-11 Queen of the South W 3-148.5 1439 1438 40.66% 22.78% 36.56%+0.13 +14.3 9
2010-09-11 @ Falkirk L 1-348.5 1438 1439 36.56% 22.78% 40.66%-0.13 -14.3 6
2010-09-11 Raith Rovers D 0-052.6 1373 1414 34.71% 22.75% 42.54%-0.07 +0.4 5
2010-09-11 @ Ross County D 0-052.6 1414 1373 42.54% 22.75% 34.71%+0.07 -0.4 13
2010-09-11 Stirling Albion L 1-248.3 1330 1348 37.97% 22.80% 39.23%+0.04 -8.5 3
2010-09-11 @ Partick Thistle W 2-148.3 1348 1330 39.23% 22.80% 37.97%-0.04 +8.5 4
2010-09-18 Cowdenbeath W 2-154.9 1466 1480 38.44% 22.80% 38.76%+0.06 +8.6 15
2010-09-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-254.9 1480 1466 38.76% 22.80% 38.44%-0.06 -8.7 9
2010-09-18 Greenock Morton W 2-144.4 1453 1323 57.10% 21.58% 21.32%+0.71 +5.2 12
2010-09-18 @ Falkirk L 1-244.4 1323 1453 21.32% 21.58% 57.10%-0.71 -5.2 4
2010-09-18 Partick Thistle W 2-144.8 1424 1321 53.99% 21.98% 24.02%+0.59 +5.8 9
2010-09-18 @ Queen of the South L 1-244.8 1321 1424 24.02% 21.98% 53.99%-0.59 -5.8 3
2010-09-18 Raith Rovers D 0-054.0 1430 1414 42.79% 22.74% 34.47%+0.20 -0.5 8
2010-09-18 @ Dundee D 0-054.0 1414 1430 34.47% 22.74% 42.79%-0.20 +0.5 14
2010-09-18 Stirling Albion W 3-144.5 1373 1356 42.97% 22.74% 34.29%+0.20 +13.6 8
2010-09-18 @ Ross County L 1-344.5 1356 1373 34.29% 22.74% 42.97%-0.20 -13.6 4
2010-09-25 Dundee W 2-150.9 1472 1429 46.43% 22.60% 30.97%+0.32 +7.2 12
2010-09-25 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-250.9 1429 1472 30.97% 22.60% 46.43%-0.32 -7.2 8
2010-09-25 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-235.5 1315 1474 21.13% 21.54% 57.32%-0.60 -10.4 3
2010-09-25 @ Partick Thistle W 2-035.5 1474 1315 57.32% 21.54% 21.13%+0.60 +10.4 18
2010-09-25 Falkirk W 2-153.6 1414 1458 34.40% 22.74% 42.86%-0.08 +9.4 17
2010-09-25 @ Raith Rovers L 1-253.6 1458 1414 42.86% 22.74% 34.40%+0.08 -9.4 12
2010-09-25 Queen of the South D 0-052.4 1343 1429 28.88% 22.47% 48.65%-0.27 +1.1 5
2010-09-25 @ Stirling Albion D 0-052.4 1429 1343 48.65% 22.47% 28.88%+0.27 -1.1 10
2010-09-25 Ross County D 0-051.3 1318 1387 31.09% 22.61% 46.30%-0.19 +0.8 5
2010-09-25 @ Greenock Morton D 0-051.3 1387 1318 46.30% 22.61% 31.09%+0.19 -0.8 9
2010-10-02 Cowdenbeath W 5-147.2 1449 1479 36.25% 22.78% 40.97%-0.01 +28.5 15
2010-10-02 @ Falkirk L 1-547.2 1479 1449 40.97% 22.78% 36.25%+0.01 -28.6 12
2010-10-02 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-046.3 1428 1485 32.72% 22.68% 44.60%-0.13 +19.4 13
2010-10-02 @ Queen of the South L 0-246.3 1485 1428 44.60% 22.68% 32.72%+0.13 -19.3 18
2010-10-02 Greenock Morton W 2-144.7 1422 1319 54.09% 21.97% 23.94%+0.59 +5.8 11
2010-10-02 @ Dundee L 1-244.7 1319 1422 23.94% 21.97% 54.09%-0.59 -5.8 5
2010-10-02 Partick Thistle L 0-243.2 1386 1305 51.43% 22.25% 26.32%+0.49 -21.8 9
2010-10-02 @ Ross County W 2-043.2 1305 1386 26.32% 22.25% 51.43%-0.49 +21.8 6
2010-10-02 Stirling Albion L 0-244.3 1424 1344 51.28% 22.26% 26.46%+0.49 -21.8 17
2010-10-02 @ Raith Rovers W 2-044.3 1344 1424 26.46% 22.26% 51.28%-0.49 +21.8 8
2010-10-16 Dundee D 1-157.6 1365 1428 31.93% 22.65% 45.42%-0.16 +0.7 9
2010-10-16 @ Stirling Albion D 1-157.6 1428 1365 45.42% 22.65% 31.93%+0.16 -0.7 12
2010-10-16 Falkirk W 1-049.8 1327 1477 21.93% 21.68% 56.39%-0.56 +12.6 9
2010-10-16 @ Partick Thistle L 0-149.8 1477 1327 56.39% 21.68% 21.93%+0.56 -12.6 15
2010-10-16 Queen of the South W 2-045.1 1313 1448 23.53% 21.92% 54.55%-0.49 +23.0 8
2010-10-16 @ Greenock Morton L 0-245.1 1448 1313 54.55% 21.92% 23.53%+0.49 -23.0 13
2010-10-16 Raith Rovers L 1-254.3 1451 1402 47.23% 22.56% 30.21%+0.34 -10.2 12
2010-10-16 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-154.3 1402 1451 30.21% 22.56% 47.23%-0.34 +10.1 20
2010-10-16 Ross County W 3-251.6 1465 1364 53.83% 22.00% 24.17%+0.58 +5.6 21
2010-10-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-351.6 1364 1465 24.17% 22.00% 53.83%-0.58 -5.6 9
2010-10-23 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-266.2 1427 1471 34.41% 22.74% 42.85%-0.08 +0.3 13
2010-10-23 @ Dundee D 2-266.2 1471 1427 42.85% 22.74% 34.41%+0.08 -0.3 22
2010-10-23 Falkirk L 1-544.1 1425 1465 34.90% 22.75% 42.35%-0.06 -25.2 13
2010-10-23 @ Queen of the South W 5-144.1 1465 1425 42.35% 22.75% 34.90%+0.06 +25.2 18
2010-10-23 Greenock Morton D 2-263.2 1440 1336 54.21% 21.96% 23.83%+0.60 -1.1 13
2010-10-23 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-263.2 1336 1440 23.83% 21.96% 54.21%-0.60 +1.2 9
2010-10-23 Partick Thistle W 4-247.5 1366 1339 44.32% 22.70% 32.99%+0.25 +11.8 12
2010-10-23 @ Stirling Albion L 2-447.5 1339 1366 32.99% 22.70% 44.32%-0.25 -11.8 9
2010-10-23 Ross County W 1-041.4 1412 1359 47.87% 22.52% 29.60%+0.37 +7.4 23
2010-10-23 @ Raith Rovers L 0-141.4 1359 1412 29.60% 22.52% 47.87%-0.37 -7.4 9
2010-10-30 Cowdenbeath W 1-047.9 1327 1439 25.98% 22.21% 51.81%-0.39 +11.7 12
2010-10-30 @ Partick Thistle L 0-147.9 1439 1327 51.81% 22.21% 25.98%+0.39 -11.7 13
2010-10-30 Dundee D 3-370.6 1490 1428 49.04% 22.44% 28.52%+0.41 -0.6 19
2010-10-30 @ Falkirk D 3-370.6 1428 1490 28.52% 22.44% 49.04%-0.41 +0.6 14
2010-10-30 Queen of the South D 1-156.7 1351 1399 33.81% 22.72% 43.47%-0.10 +0.5 10
2010-10-30 @ Ross County D 1-156.7 1399 1351 43.47% 22.72% 33.81%+0.10 -0.5 14
2010-10-30 Raith Rovers L 0-141.0 1337 1420 29.42% 22.51% 48.07%-0.25 -7.4 9
2010-10-30 @ Greenock Morton W 1-041.0 1420 1337 48.07% 22.51% 29.42%+0.25 +7.3 26
2010-10-30 Stirling Albion W 3-036.3 1471 1378 52.82% 22.11% 25.06%+0.55 +17.6 25
2010-10-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-336.3 1378 1471 25.06% 22.11% 52.82%-0.55 -17.6 12
2010-11-06 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-156.1 1330 1488 21.19% 21.55% 57.25%-0.60 +12.0 12
2010-11-06 @ Greenock Morton L 1-256.1 1488 1330 57.25% 21.55% 21.19%+0.60 -12.0 25
2010-11-06 Partick Thistle W 2-145.7 1428 1339 52.39% 22.16% 25.46%+0.53 +6.1 17
2010-11-06 @ Dundee L 1-245.7 1339 1428 25.46% 22.16% 52.39%-0.53 -6.1 12
2010-11-06 Queen of the South L 0-147.1 1427 1399 44.45% 22.69% 32.86%+0.25 -10.2 26
2010-11-06 @ Raith Rovers W 1-047.1 1399 1427 32.86% 22.69% 44.45%-0.25 +10.2 17
2010-11-06 Ross County L 0-151.2 1489 1352 57.97% 21.44% 20.59%+0.75 -12.9 19
2010-11-06 @ Falkirk W 1-051.2 1352 1489 20.59% 21.44% 57.97%-0.75 +12.9 13
2010-11-06 Stirling Albion W 5-139.2 1428 1360 49.66% 22.40% 27.94%+0.43 +21.0 16
2010-11-06 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-539.2 1360 1428 27.94% 22.40% 49.66%-0.43 -21.0 12
2010-11-13 Cowdenbeath W 3-041.9 1409 1449 35.00% 22.76% 42.24%-0.06 +26.9 20
2010-11-13 @ Queen of the South L 0-341.9 1449 1409 42.24% 22.76% 35.00%+0.06 -26.9 16
2010-11-13 Dundee L 0-337.0 1365 1434 31.00% 22.61% 46.39%-0.19 -21.0 13
2010-11-13 @ Ross County W 3-037.0 1434 1365 46.39% 22.61% 31.00%+0.19 +21.0 20
2010-11-13 Falkirk L 0-535.2 1339 1476 23.28% 21.88% 54.84%-0.50 -26.6 12
2010-11-13 @ Stirling Albion W 5-035.2 1476 1339 54.84% 21.88% 23.28%+0.50 +26.6 22
2010-11-13 Greenock Morton D 0-050.8 1333 1342 39.30% 22.80% 37.91%+0.08 -0.1 13
2010-11-13 @ Partick Thistle D 0-050.8 1342 1333 37.91% 22.80% 39.30%-0.08 +0.1 13
2010-11-13 Raith Rovers D 2-266.1 1476 1417 48.67% 22.47% 28.86%+0.39 -0.7 26
2010-11-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-266.1 1417 1476 28.86% 22.47% 48.67%-0.39 +0.7 27
2010-12-11 Dundee L 0-140.7 1342 1455 25.79% 22.19% 52.01%-0.39 -6.6 13
2010-12-11 @ Greenock Morton W 1-040.7 1455 1342 52.01% 22.19% 25.79%+0.39 +6.6 23
2010-12-11 Queen of the South W 1-045.7 1475 1436 46.01% 22.62% 31.37%+0.30 +7.8 29
2010-12-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-145.7 1436 1475 31.37% 22.62% 46.01%-0.30 -7.8 20
2010-12-11 Ross County D 1-155.7 1333 1344 39.03% 22.80% 38.18%+0.07 -0.0 14
2010-12-11 @ Partick Thistle D 1-155.7 1344 1333 38.18% 22.80% 39.03%-0.07 +0.0 14
2010-12-14 Cowdenbeath W 3-039.4 1462 1422 46.13% 22.62% 31.25%+0.31 +21.2 26
2010-12-14 @ Dundee L 0-339.4 1422 1462 31.25% 22.62% 46.13%-0.31 -21.2 16
2010-12-14 Greenock Morton D 2-261.5 1344 1335 41.74% 22.77% 35.49%+0.16 -0.2 15
2010-12-14 @ Ross County D 2-261.5 1335 1344 35.49% 22.77% 41.74%-0.16 +0.2 14
2010-12-14 Partick Thistle D 0-053.7 1483 1333 59.35% 21.22% 19.44%+0.81 -2.3 30
2010-12-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-053.7 1333 1483 19.44% 21.22% 59.35%-0.81 +2.3 15
2010-12-18 Stirling Albion W 2-034.4 1483 1313 61.40% 20.83% 17.77%+0.90 +8.9 29
2010-12-18 @ Dundee L 0-234.4 1313 1483 17.77% 20.83% 61.40%-0.90 -8.9 12
2010-12-26 Raith Rovers D 0-052.0 1335 1417 29.44% 22.51% 48.05%-0.25 +1.0 16
2010-12-26 @ Partick Thistle D 0-052.0 1417 1335 48.05% 22.51% 29.44%+0.25 -1.0 28
2010-12-29 Cowdenbeath W 5-038.1 1481 1401 51.32% 22.26% 26.42%+0.49 +29.7 33
2010-12-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-538.1 1401 1481 26.42% 22.26% 51.32%-0.49 -29.7 16
2010-12-29 Raith Rovers D 0-056.5 1503 1416 52.09% 22.19% 25.73%+0.52 -1.5 23
2010-12-29 @ Falkirk D 0-056.5 1416 1503 25.73% 22.19% 52.09%-0.52 +1.5 29
2011-01-02 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-157.3 1418 1511 28.17% 22.42% 49.41%-0.30 +10.6 32
2011-01-02 @ Raith Rovers L 1-257.3 1511 1418 49.41% 22.42% 28.17%+0.30 -10.5 33
2011-01-02 Ross County W 2-036.0 1492 1343 59.15% 21.25% 19.60%+0.80 +9.7 32
2011-01-02 @ Dundee L 0-236.0 1343 1492 19.60% 21.25% 59.15%-0.80 -9.7 15
2011-01-02 Stirling Albion W 4-243.3 1502 1304 64.04% 20.25% 15.71%+1.02 +6.1 26
2011-01-02 @ Falkirk L 2-443.3 1304 1502 15.71% 20.25% 64.04%-1.02 -6.1 12
2011-01-15 Cowdenbeath W 3-038.6 1336 1371 35.55% 22.77% 41.68%-0.04 +26.6 17
2011-01-15 @ Greenock Morton L 0-338.6 1371 1336 41.68% 22.77% 35.55%+0.04 -26.6 16
2011-01-15 Dundee D 0-059.3 1500 1502 40.32% 22.79% 36.89%+0.12 -0.2 34
2011-01-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-059.3 1502 1500 36.89% 22.79% 40.32%-0.12 +0.2 33
2011-01-15 Queen of the South L 0-347.0 1508 1428 51.17% 22.27% 26.55%+0.48 -31.6 26
2011-01-15 @ Falkirk W 3-047.0 1428 1508 26.55% 22.27% 51.17%-0.48 +31.6 23
2011-01-15 Raith Rovers L 0-140.7 1334 1428 27.94% 22.40% 49.66%-0.31 -7.0 15
2011-01-15 @ Ross County W 1-040.7 1428 1334 49.66% 22.40% 27.94%+0.31 +7.0 35
2011-01-15 Stirling Albion W 6-137.5 1336 1298 45.88% 22.63% 31.49%+0.30 +28.4 19
2011-01-15 @ Partick Thistle L 1-637.5 1298 1336 31.49% 22.63% 45.88%-0.30 -28.4 12
2011-01-22 Falkirk W 1-048.6 1502 1476 44.18% 22.70% 33.12%+0.24 +8.1 36
2011-01-22 @ Dundee L 0-148.6 1476 1502 33.12% 22.70% 44.18%-0.24 -8.1 26
2011-01-22 Greenock Morton D 2-263.6 1435 1362 50.43% 22.34% 27.23%+0.46 -0.9 36
2011-01-22 @ Raith Rovers D 2-263.6 1362 1435 27.23% 22.34% 50.43%-0.46 +0.9 18
2011-01-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-047.6 1365 1500 23.47% 21.91% 54.62%-0.49 +23.0 22
2011-01-29 @ Partick Thistle L 0-247.6 1500 1365 54.62% 21.91% 23.47%+0.49 -23.0 34
2011-01-29 Falkirk L 1-252.5 1435 1468 35.83% 22.77% 41.40%-0.03 -8.1 36
2011-01-29 @ Raith Rovers W 2-152.5 1468 1435 41.40% 22.77% 35.83%+0.03 +8.1 29
2011-01-29 Ross County W 2-146.5 1363 1327 45.60% 22.64% 31.76%+0.29 +7.4 21
2011-01-29 @ Greenock Morton L 1-246.5 1327 1363 31.76% 22.64% 45.60%-0.29 -7.4 15
2011-02-05 Cowdenbeath D 1-155.5 1319 1344 36.99% 22.79% 40.22%+0.01 +0.2 16
2011-02-05 @ Ross County D 1-155.5 1344 1319 40.22% 22.79% 36.99%-0.01 -0.2 17
2011-02-05 Dundee L 1-254.2 1460 1510 33.55% 22.72% 43.73%-0.10 -7.7 23
2011-02-05 @ Queen of the South W 2-154.2 1510 1460 43.73% 22.72% 33.55%+0.10 +7.7 39
2011-02-05 Raith Rovers L 1-339.8 1269 1426 21.32% 21.58% 57.10%-0.59 -9.1 12
2011-02-05 @ Stirling Albion W 3-139.8 1426 1269 57.10% 21.58% 21.32%+0.59 +9.1 39
2011-02-12 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-434.9 1344 1477 23.74% 21.95% 54.32%-0.48 -21.9 17
2011-02-12 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-034.9 1477 1344 54.32% 21.95% 23.74%+0.48 +21.9 37
2011-02-12 Greenock Morton W 1-041.2 1476 1370 54.37% 21.94% 23.69%+0.61 +6.1 32
2011-02-12 @ Falkirk L 0-141.2 1370 1476 23.69% 21.94% 54.37%-0.61 -6.1 21
2011-02-12 Partick Thistle D 3-368.3 1452 1388 49.32% 22.42% 28.25%+0.42 -0.7 24
2011-02-12 @ Queen of the South D 3-368.3 1388 1452 28.25% 22.42% 49.32%-0.42 +0.7 23
2011-02-12 Raith Rovers W 2-151.2 1518 1436 51.54% 22.24% 26.22%+0.50 +6.3 42
2011-02-12 @ Dundee L 1-251.2 1436 1518 26.22% 22.24% 51.54%-0.50 -6.3 39
2011-02-12 Stirling Albion D 0-050.1 1319 1260 48.62% 22.47% 28.91%+0.39 -1.1 17
2011-02-12 @ Ross County D 0-050.1 1260 1319 28.91% 22.47% 48.62%-0.39 +1.1 13
2011-02-15 Falkirk D 1-163.3 1499 1482 42.89% 22.74% 34.37%+0.20 -0.4 38
2011-02-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-163.3 1482 1499 34.37% 22.74% 42.89%-0.20 +0.4 33
2011-02-15 Greenock Morton L 0-138.6 1261 1364 26.99% 22.31% 50.70%-0.35 -6.8 13
2011-02-15 @ Stirling Albion W 1-038.6 1364 1261 50.70% 22.31% 26.99%+0.35 +6.8 24
2011-02-15 Partick Thistle D 1-156.1 1322 1388 31.46% 22.63% 45.91%-0.18 +0.7 18
2011-02-15 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-156.1 1388 1322 45.91% 22.63% 31.46%+0.18 -0.7 24
2011-02-19 Dundee L 0-135.5 1254 1524 12.83% 19.20% 67.97%-1.11 -3.4 13
2011-02-19 @ Stirling Albion W 1-035.5 1524 1254 67.97% 19.20% 12.83%+1.11 +3.4 45
2011-02-19 Queen of the South L 0-436.9 1371 1452 29.65% 22.52% 47.82%-0.24 -26.5 24
2011-02-19 @ Greenock Morton W 4-036.9 1452 1371 47.82% 22.52% 29.65%+0.24 +26.5 27
2011-02-19 Raith Rovers L 0-334.7 1323 1429 26.60% 22.28% 51.13%-0.36 -18.5 18
2011-02-19 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-034.7 1429 1323 51.13% 22.28% 26.60%+0.36 +18.5 42
2011-02-22 Dundee L 1-253.2 1448 1527 29.75% 22.53% 47.72%-0.24 -7.0 42
2011-02-22 @ Raith Rovers W 2-153.2 1527 1448 47.72% 22.53% 29.75%+0.24 +7.0 48
2011-02-22 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-053.8 1318 1498 19.25% 21.18% 59.57%-0.70 +2.4 18
2011-02-22 @ Ross County D 0-053.8 1498 1318 59.57% 21.18% 19.25%+0.70 -2.3 39
2011-02-22 Partick Thistle W 1-044.7 1345 1388 34.51% 22.74% 42.75%-0.07 +9.9 27
2011-02-22 @ Greenock Morton L 0-144.7 1388 1345 42.75% 22.74% 34.51%+0.07 -9.9 24
2011-02-22 Stirling Albion D 2-263.1 1478 1251 66.68% 19.57% 13.74%+1.16 -2.1 28
2011-02-22 @ Queen of the South D 2-263.1 1251 1478 13.74% 19.57% 66.68%-1.16 +2.1 14
2011-02-26 Cowdenbeath W 2-034.0 1483 1304 62.17% 20.67% 17.16%+0.94 +8.6 36
2011-02-26 @ Falkirk L 0-234.0 1304 1483 17.16% 20.67% 62.17%-0.94 -8.6 18
2011-02-26 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-352.2 1476 1496 37.70% 22.79% 39.51%+0.03 -14.7 28
2011-02-26 @ Queen of the South W 3-152.2 1496 1476 39.51% 22.79% 37.70%-0.03 +14.7 42
2011-02-26 Greenock Morton D 1-160.7 1534 1354 62.34% 20.64% 17.02%+0.94 -2.4 49
2011-02-26 @ Dundee D 1-160.7 1354 1534 17.02% 20.64% 62.34%-0.94 +2.4 28
2011-02-26 Partick Thistle D 0-051.2 1321 1378 32.64% 22.68% 44.68%-0.14 +0.7 19
2011-02-26 @ Ross County D 0-051.2 1378 1321 44.68% 22.68% 32.64%+0.14 -0.7 25
2011-02-26 Stirling Albion W 2-141.3 1441 1253 63.08% 20.47% 16.45%+0.98 +4.1 45
2011-02-26 @ Raith Rovers L 1-241.3 1253 1441 16.45% 20.47% 63.08%-0.98 -4.1 14
2011-03-01 Falkirk D 0-054.3 1357 1491 23.57% 21.92% 54.50%-0.49 +1.8 29
2011-03-01 @ Greenock Morton D 0-054.3 1491 1357 54.50% 21.92% 23.57%+0.49 -1.8 37
2011-03-01 Queen of the South D 2-263.0 1296 1461 20.54% 21.44% 58.02%-0.63 +1.4 19
2011-03-01 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-263.0 1461 1296 58.02% 21.44% 20.54%+0.63 -1.5 29
2011-03-01 Ross County D 0-050.1 1249 1321 30.68% 22.59% 46.74%-0.21 +0.9 15
2011-03-01 @ Stirling Albion D 0-050.1 1321 1249 46.74% 22.59% 30.68%+0.21 -0.9 20
2011-03-05 Cowdenbeath L 3-453.5 1250 1297 33.92% 22.73% 43.35%-0.09 -7.2 15
2011-03-05 @ Stirling Albion W 4-353.5 1297 1250 43.35% 22.73% 33.92%+0.09 +7.2 22
2011-03-05 Dundee D 0-056.3 1377 1532 21.51% 21.61% 56.88%-0.58 +2.0 26
2011-03-05 @ Partick Thistle D 0-056.3 1532 1377 56.88% 21.61% 21.51%+0.58 -2.0 50
2011-03-05 Falkirk W 2-156.2 1320 1489 20.23% 21.38% 58.40%-0.65 +12.2 23
2011-03-05 @ Ross County L 1-256.2 1489 1320 58.40% 21.38% 20.23%+0.65 -12.2 37
2011-03-05 Greenock Morton L 1-354.7 1511 1359 59.51% 21.19% 19.30%+0.82 -21.6 42
2011-03-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-154.7 1359 1511 19.30% 21.19% 59.51%-0.82 +21.6 32
2011-03-05 Raith Rovers L 0-245.5 1460 1445 42.67% 22.75% 34.58%+0.19 -18.7 29
2011-03-05 @ Queen of the South W 2-045.5 1445 1460 34.58% 22.75% 42.67%-0.19 +18.7 48
2011-03-08 Dundee L 1-340.3 1304 1530 15.68% 20.24% 64.08%-0.90 -6.8 22
2011-03-08 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-140.3 1530 1304 64.08% 20.24% 15.68%+0.90 +6.8 53
2011-03-08 Queen of the South W 3-149.6 1379 1441 31.96% 22.65% 45.38%-0.16 +17.0 29
2011-03-08 @ Partick Thistle L 1-349.6 1441 1379 45.38% 22.65% 31.96%+0.16 -17.0 29
2011-03-08 Ross County D 1-158.7 1489 1333 59.97% 21.10% 18.93%+0.84 -2.1 43
2011-03-08 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-158.7 1333 1489 18.93% 21.10% 59.97%-0.84 +2.1 24
2011-03-12 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-255.7 1477 1487 39.17% 22.80% 38.03%+0.08 -8.7 37
2011-03-12 @ Falkirk W 2-155.7 1487 1477 38.03% 22.80% 39.17%-0.08 +8.7 46
2011-03-12 Partick Thistle L 0-246.1 1464 1396 49.69% 22.40% 27.91%+0.43 -21.2 48
2011-03-12 @ Raith Rovers W 2-046.1 1396 1464 27.91% 22.40% 49.69%-0.43 +21.2 32
2011-03-12 Queen of the South W 2-150.4 1537 1424 55.18% 21.84% 22.98%+0.64 +5.6 56
2011-03-12 @ Dundee L 1-250.4 1424 1537 22.98% 21.84% 55.18%-0.64 -5.6 29
2011-03-15 Cowdenbeath W 2-143.3 1442 1298 58.74% 21.32% 19.94%+0.78 +4.9 51
2011-03-15 @ Raith Rovers L 1-243.3 1298 1442 19.94% 21.32% 58.74%-0.78 -4.9 22
2011-03-15 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-157.5 1243 1496 13.84% 19.61% 66.55%-1.03 +2.8 16
2011-03-15 @ Stirling Albion D 1-157.5 1496 1243 66.55% 19.61% 13.84%+1.03 -2.8 47
2011-03-16 Greenock Morton W 2-039.1 1419 1380 45.88% 22.63% 31.49%+0.30 +14.7 32
2011-03-16 @ Queen of the South L 0-239.1 1380 1419 31.49% 22.63% 45.88%-0.30 -14.7 32
2011-03-19 Cowdenbeath L 0-148.2 1417 1293 56.53% 21.66% 21.81%+0.69 -12.6 32
2011-03-19 @ Partick Thistle W 1-048.2 1293 1417 21.81% 21.66% 56.53%-0.69 +12.6 25
2011-03-19 Dundee D 2-270.3 1468 1542 30.46% 22.57% 46.97%-0.21 +0.6 38
2011-03-19 @ Falkirk D 2-270.3 1542 1468 46.97% 22.57% 30.46%+0.21 -0.6 57
2011-03-19 Queen of the South L 1-246.4 1335 1433 27.50% 22.36% 50.14%-0.33 -6.6 24
2011-03-19 @ Ross County W 2-146.4 1433 1335 50.14% 22.36% 27.50%+0.33 +6.6 35
2011-03-19 Raith Rovers D 0-053.3 1366 1447 29.50% 22.51% 47.99%-0.25 +1.0 33
2011-03-19 @ Greenock Morton D 0-053.3 1447 1366 47.99% 22.51% 29.50%+0.25 -1.0 52
2011-03-19 Stirling Albion W 4-134.3 1493 1246 68.40% 19.07% 12.53%+1.25 +7.7 50
2011-03-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-434.3 1246 1493 12.53% 19.07% 68.40%-1.25 -7.7 16
2011-03-22 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-165.7 1542 1501 46.27% 22.61% 31.12%+0.31 -0.7 58
2011-03-22 @ Dundee D 1-165.7 1501 1542 31.12% 22.61% 46.27%-0.31 +0.7 51
2011-03-22 Falkirk L 0-147.1 1440 1469 36.40% 22.78% 40.82%-0.01 -8.7 35
2011-03-22 @ Queen of the South W 1-047.1 1469 1440 40.82% 22.78% 36.40%+0.01 +8.7 41
2011-03-22 Greenock Morton L 0-237.3 1305 1367 32.08% 22.66% 45.26%-0.16 -14.9 25
2011-03-22 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-037.3 1367 1305 45.26% 22.66% 32.08%+0.16 +14.9 36
2011-03-22 Partick Thistle L 0-331.2 1238 1405 20.43% 21.41% 58.16%-0.64 -14.7 16
2011-03-22 @ Stirling Albion W 3-031.2 1405 1238 58.16% 21.41% 20.43%+0.64 +14.7 35
2011-03-22 Ross County D 1-157.5 1446 1328 55.79% 21.76% 22.45%+0.66 -1.7 53
2011-03-22 @ Raith Rovers D 1-157.5 1328 1446 22.45% 21.76% 55.79%-0.66 +1.7 25
2011-03-26 Cowdenbeath D 2-265.4 1541 1290 68.69% 18.98% 12.33%+1.27 -2.2 59
2011-03-26 @ Dundee D 2-265.4 1290 1541 12.33% 18.98% 68.69%-1.27 +2.3 26
2011-03-26 Greenock Morton W 2-041.3 1330 1381 33.37% 22.71% 43.92%-0.11 +19.1 28
2011-03-26 @ Ross County L 0-241.3 1381 1330 43.92% 22.71% 33.37%+0.11 -19.1 36
2011-03-26 Partick Thistle D 0-056.5 1501 1419 51.51% 22.24% 26.25%+0.50 -1.4 52
2011-03-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-056.5 1419 1501 26.25% 22.24% 51.51%-0.50 +1.4 36
2011-03-26 Raith Rovers W 2-152.0 1478 1445 45.18% 22.66% 32.15%+0.28 +7.5 44
2011-03-26 @ Falkirk L 1-252.0 1445 1478 32.15% 22.66% 45.18%-0.28 -7.5 53
2011-03-26 Stirling Albion W 4-134.2 1431 1223 64.98% 20.02% 15.00%+1.07 +9.2 38
2011-03-26 @ Queen of the South L 1-434.2 1223 1431 15.00% 20.02% 64.98%-1.07 -9.2 16
2011-03-29 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-140.6 1349 1500 21.93% 21.68% 56.39%-0.56 -5.7 28
2011-03-29 @ Ross County W 1-040.6 1500 1349 56.39% 21.68% 21.93%+0.56 +5.7 55
2011-03-29 Falkirk D 0-053.0 1293 1485 18.20% 20.94% 60.87%-0.75 +2.5 27
2011-03-29 @ Cowdenbeath D 0-053.0 1485 1293 60.87% 20.94% 18.20%+0.75 -2.5 45
2011-03-29 Queen of the South L 0-231.4 1214 1440 15.62% 20.23% 64.15%-0.91 -7.8 16
2011-03-29 @ Stirling Albion W 2-031.4 1440 1214 64.15% 20.23% 15.62%+0.91 +7.8 41
2011-04-02 Dundee W 2-159.4 1437 1539 27.12% 22.33% 50.56%-0.34 +10.8 56
2011-04-02 @ Raith Rovers L 1-259.4 1539 1437 50.56% 22.33% 27.12%+0.34 -10.8 59
2011-04-02 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-137.6 1295 1506 16.79% 20.57% 62.64%-0.84 -4.5 27
2011-04-02 @ Cowdenbeath W 1-037.6 1506 1295 62.64% 20.57% 16.79%+0.84 +4.5 58
2011-04-02 Falkirk D 2-264.8 1362 1483 25.04% 22.11% 52.85%-0.43 +1.0 37
2011-04-02 @ Greenock Morton D 2-264.8 1483 1362 52.85% 22.11% 25.04%+0.43 -1.0 46
2011-04-02 Queen of the South D 0-054.7 1421 1448 36.65% 22.79% 40.56%+0.00 +0.2 37
2011-04-02 @ Partick Thistle D 0-054.7 1448 1421 40.56% 22.79% 36.65%+0.00 -0.2 42
2011-04-02 Ross County L 0-233.5 1206 1343 23.27% 21.88% 54.85%-0.50 -11.4 16
2011-04-02 @ Stirling Albion W 2-033.5 1343 1206 54.85% 21.88% 23.27%+0.50 +11.4 31
2011-04-05 Ross County W 2-150.2 1291 1355 31.73% 22.64% 45.63%-0.17 +9.9 30
2011-04-05 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-250.2 1355 1291 45.63% 22.64% 31.73%+0.17 -9.9 31
2011-04-05 Stirling Albion W 2-031.6 1363 1195 61.22% 20.87% 17.92%+0.89 +8.9 40
2011-04-05 @ Greenock Morton L 0-231.6 1195 1363 17.92% 20.87% 61.22%-0.89 -9.0 16
2011-04-09 Cowdenbeath D 2-262.9 1448 1301 59.01% 21.27% 19.72%+0.79 -1.5 57
2011-04-09 @ Raith Rovers D 2-262.9 1301 1448 19.72% 21.27% 59.01%-0.79 +1.5 31
2011-04-09 Partick Thistle L 2-361.3 1482 1421 48.83% 22.46% 28.71%+0.40 -9.9 46
2011-04-09 @ Falkirk W 3-261.3 1421 1482 28.71% 22.46% 48.83%-0.40 +9.9 40
2011-04-10 Stirling Albion D 1-158.0 1528 1186 75.44% 16.48% 8.08%+1.68 -3.6 60
2011-04-10 @ Dundee D 1-158.0 1186 1528 8.08% 16.48% 75.44%-1.68 +3.7 17
2011-04-12 Falkirk L 1-252.2 1431 1472 34.78% 22.75% 42.47%-0.06 -7.9 40
2011-04-12 @ Partick Thistle W 2-152.2 1472 1431 42.47% 22.75% 34.78%+0.06 +7.9 49
2011-04-13 Greenock Morton L 1-448.3 1448 1372 50.72% 22.31% 26.97%+0.47 -26.4 42
2011-04-13 @ Queen of the South W 4-148.3 1372 1448 26.97% 22.31% 50.72%-0.47 +26.4 43
2011-04-16 Dundee L 1-346.2 1399 1524 24.47% 22.04% 53.49%-0.45 -10.3 43
2011-04-16 @ Greenock Morton W 3-146.2 1524 1399 53.49% 22.04% 24.47%+0.45 +10.3 63
2011-04-16 Falkirk L 1-243.9 1302 1480 19.46% 21.22% 59.32%-0.69 -4.8 31
2011-04-16 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-143.9 1480 1302 59.32% 21.22% 19.46%+0.69 +4.8 52
2011-04-16 Queen of the South W 6-141.9 1510 1422 52.31% 22.17% 25.52%+0.53 +23.8 61
2011-04-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-641.9 1422 1510 25.52% 22.17% 52.31%-0.53 -23.8 42
2011-04-16 Raith Rovers L 1-239.6 1189 1446 13.60% 19.51% 66.89%-1.05 -3.4 17
2011-04-16 @ Stirling Albion W 2-139.6 1446 1189 66.89% 19.51% 13.60%+1.05 +3.4 60
2011-04-16 Ross County D 1-157.2 1423 1345 51.02% 22.29% 26.70%+0.48 -1.2 41
2011-04-16 @ Partick Thistle D 1-157.2 1345 1423 26.70% 22.29% 51.02%-0.48 +1.2 32
2011-04-19 Partick Thistle W 2-041.2 1485 1422 49.11% 22.44% 28.46%+0.41 +13.5 55
2011-04-19 @ Falkirk L 0-241.2 1422 1485 28.46% 22.44% 49.11%-0.41 -13.5 41
2011-04-23 Cowdenbeath D 2-261.9 1398 1297 53.74% 22.01% 24.24%+0.58 -1.1 43
2011-04-23 @ Queen of the South D 2-261.9 1297 1398 24.24% 22.01% 53.74%-0.58 +1.1 32
2011-04-23 Dundee L 0-140.3 1346 1535 18.52% 21.01% 60.47%-0.74 -4.9 32
2011-04-23 @ Ross County W 1-040.3 1535 1346 60.47% 21.01% 18.52%+0.74 +4.9 66
2011-04-23 Falkirk L 1-238.7 1186 1498 10.56% 18.09% 71.35%-1.30 -2.6 17
2011-04-23 @ Stirling Albion W 2-138.7 1498 1186 71.35% 18.09% 10.56%+1.30 +2.6 58
2011-04-23 Greenock Morton W 2-039.9 1408 1388 43.33% 22.73% 33.95%+0.21 +15.6 44
2011-04-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-239.9 1388 1408 33.95% 22.73% 43.33%-0.21 -15.6 43
2011-04-23 Raith Rovers W 2-152.3 1534 1450 51.78% 22.22% 26.01%+0.51 +6.3 64
2011-04-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-252.3 1450 1534 26.01% 22.22% 51.78%-0.51 -6.2 60
2011-04-26 Ross County L 0-146.3 1397 1341 48.13% 22.51% 29.37%+0.38 -10.9 43
2011-04-26 @ Queen of the South W 1-046.3 1341 1397 29.37% 22.51% 48.13%-0.38 +10.9 35
2011-04-30 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-238.7 1373 1540 20.38% 21.41% 58.21%-0.64 -10.1 43
2011-04-30 @ Greenock Morton W 2-038.7 1540 1373 58.21% 21.41% 20.38%+0.64 +10.1 67
2011-04-30 Partick Thistle W 3-255.4 1540 1424 55.55% 21.79% 22.66%+0.65 +5.3 69
2011-04-30 @ Dundee L 2-355.4 1424 1540 22.66% 21.79% 55.55%-0.65 -5.3 44
2011-04-30 Queen of the South L 0-148.3 1443 1386 48.45% 22.48% 29.06%+0.39 -11.0 60
2011-04-30 @ Raith Rovers W 1-048.3 1386 1443 29.06% 22.48% 48.45%-0.39 +11.0 46
2011-04-30 Ross County L 0-151.8 1501 1352 59.15% 21.25% 19.60%+0.80 -13.1 58
2011-04-30 @ Falkirk W 1-051.8 1352 1501 19.60% 21.25% 59.15%-0.80 +13.1 38
2011-04-30 Stirling Albion W 1-036.5 1298 1183 55.44% 21.81% 22.75%+0.65 +5.9 35
2011-04-30 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-136.5 1183 1298 22.75% 21.81% 55.44%-0.65 -5.9 17
2011-05-07 Cowdenbeath W 3-034.2 1365 1304 48.85% 22.46% 28.69%+0.40 +19.7 41
2011-05-07 @ Ross County L 0-334.2 1304 1365 28.69% 22.46% 48.85%-0.40 -19.7 35
2011-05-07 Dundee W 3-048.5 1397 1545 22.17% 21.72% 56.11%-0.55 +34.3 49
2011-05-07 @ Queen of the South L 0-348.5 1545 1397 56.11% 21.72% 22.17%+0.55 -34.3 69
2011-05-07 Falkirk W 3-044.0 1550 1488 49.07% 22.44% 28.49%+0.41 +19.6 70
2011-05-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-344.0 1488 1550 28.49% 22.44% 49.07%-0.41 -19.6 58
2011-05-07 Greenock Morton W 3-258.4 1178 1363 18.81% 21.08% 60.12%-0.72 +11.9 20
2011-05-07 @ Stirling Albion L 2-358.4 1363 1178 60.12% 21.08% 18.81%+0.72 -11.9 43
2011-05-07 Raith Rovers W 3-040.7 1418 1432 38.56% 22.80% 38.64%+0.06 +25.1 47
2011-05-07 @ Partick Thistle L 0-340.7 1432 1418 38.64% 22.80% 38.56%-0.06 -25.1 60

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2011-05-07 18.81% @ Stirling Albion 1178 3 Greenock Morton 1363 2
2 2011-03-05 19.30% Greenock Morton 1359 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1511 1
3 2011-04-30 19.60% Ross County 1352 1 @ Falkirk 1501 0
4 2011-03-05 20.23% @ Ross County 1320 2 Falkirk 1489 1
5 2010-11-06 20.59% Ross County 1352 1 @ Falkirk 1489 0
6 2010-11-06 21.19% @ Greenock Morton 1330 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1488 1
7 2011-03-19 21.81% Cowdenbeath 1293 1 @ Partick Thistle 1417 0
8 2010-10-16 21.93% @ Partick Thistle 1327 1 Falkirk 1477 0
9 2011-05-07 22.17% @ Queen of the South 1397 3 Dundee 1545 0
10 2010-08-07 22.23% Ross County 1380 2 @ Cowdenbeath 1500 0
11 2011-01-29 23.47% @ Partick Thistle 1365 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1500 0
12 2010-10-16 23.53% @ Greenock Morton 1313 2 Queen of the South 1448 0
13 2010-08-22 24.99% Queen of the South 1396 3 @ Cowdenbeath 1489 1
14 2010-10-30 25.98% @ Partick Thistle 1327 1 Cowdenbeath 1439 0
15 2010-10-02 26.32% Partick Thistle 1305 2 @ Ross County 1386 0
16 2010-10-02 26.46% Stirling Albion 1344 2 @ Raith Rovers 1424 0
17 2011-01-15 26.55% Queen of the South 1428 3 @ Falkirk 1508 0
18 2011-04-13 26.97% Greenock Morton 1372 4 @ Queen of the South 1448 1
19 2011-04-02 27.12% @ Raith Rovers 1437 2 Dundee 1539 1
20 2010-08-14 27.80% @ Partick Thistle 1342 1 Dundee 1438 0
21 2011-03-12 27.91% Partick Thistle 1396 2 @ Raith Rovers 1464 0
22 2011-01-02 28.17% @ Raith Rovers 1418 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1511 1
23 2011-04-09 28.71% Partick Thistle 1421 3 @ Falkirk 1482 2
24 2011-04-30 29.06% Queen of the South 1386 1 @ Raith Rovers 1443 0
25 2011-04-26 29.37% Ross County 1341 1 @ Queen of the South 1397 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-08-07 35.35 @ Raith Rovers 4 1335 34.66% Partick Thistle 0 1377 42.59% 22.75%
2 2011-05-07 34.28 @ Queen of the South 3 1397 22.17% Dundee 0 1545 56.11% 21.72%
3 2011-01-15 31.58 Queen of the South 3 1428 26.55% @ Falkirk 0 1508 51.17% 22.27%
4 2010-12-29 29.66 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1481 51.32% Cowdenbeath 0 1401 26.42% 22.26%
5 2010-10-02 28.56 @ Falkirk 5 1449 36.25% Cowdenbeath 1 1479 40.97% 22.78%
6 2011-01-15 28.42 @ Partick Thistle 6 1336 45.88% Stirling Albion 1 1298 31.49% 22.63%
7 2010-11-13 26.88 @ Queen of the South 3 1409 35.00% Cowdenbeath 0 1449 42.24% 22.76%
8 2011-01-15 26.59 @ Greenock Morton 3 1336 35.55% Cowdenbeath 0 1371 41.68% 22.77%
9 2010-11-13 26.57 Falkirk 5 1476 54.84% @ Stirling Albion 0 1339 23.28% 21.88%
10 2011-02-19 26.50 Queen of the South 4 1452 47.82% @ Greenock Morton 0 1371 29.65% 22.52%
11 2011-04-13 26.42 Greenock Morton 4 1372 26.97% @ Queen of the South 1 1448 50.72% 22.31%
12 2010-10-23 25.20 Falkirk 5 1465 42.35% @ Queen of the South 1 1425 34.90% 22.75%
13 2011-05-07 25.06 @ Partick Thistle 3 1418 38.56% Raith Rovers 0 1432 38.64% 22.80%
14 2010-08-28 23.95 Dunfermline Athletic 5 1428 44.56% @ Stirling Albion 1 1372 32.76% 22.69%
15 2011-04-16 23.84 @ Dunfermline Athletic 6 1510 52.31% Queen of the South 1 1422 25.52% 22.17%
16 2010-08-07 23.58 Ross County 2 1380 22.23% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1500 56.04% 21.73%
17 2011-01-29 23.04 @ Partick Thistle 2 1365 23.47% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1500 54.62% 21.91%
18 2010-10-16 23.01 @ Greenock Morton 2 1313 23.53% Queen of the South 0 1448 54.55% 21.92%
19 2010-08-28 22.64 @ Queen of the South 3 1415 43.33% Ross County 0 1396 33.94% 22.73%
20 2011-02-12 21.93 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1477 54.32% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1344 23.74% 21.95%
21 2010-10-02 21.84 Partick Thistle 2 1305 26.32% @ Ross County 0 1386 51.43% 22.25%
22 2010-10-02 21.78 Stirling Albion 2 1344 26.46% @ Raith Rovers 0 1424 51.28% 22.26%
23 2011-03-05 21.56 Greenock Morton 3 1359 19.30% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1511 59.51% 21.19%
24 2011-03-12 21.19 Partick Thistle 2 1396 27.91% @ Raith Rovers 0 1464 49.69% 22.40%
25 2010-12-14 21.18 @ Dundee 3 1462 46.13% Cowdenbeath 0 1422 31.25% 22.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2010-10-30 70.6 @ Falkirk 3 1490 49.04% Dundee 3 1428 28.52% 22.44%
2 2011-03-19 70.3 @ Falkirk 2 1468 30.46% Dundee 2 1542 46.97% 22.57%
3 2011-02-12 68.3 @ Queen of the South 3 1452 49.32% Partick Thistle 3 1388 28.25% 22.42%
4 2010-10-23 66.2 @ Dundee 2 1427 34.41% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1471 42.85% 22.74%
5 2010-11-13 66.1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1476 48.67% Raith Rovers 2 1417 28.86% 22.47%
6 2011-03-22 65.7 @ Dundee 1 1542 46.27% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1501 31.12% 22.61%
7 2011-03-26 65.4 @ Dundee 2 1541 68.69% Cowdenbeath 2 1290 12.33% 18.98%
8 2011-04-02 64.8 @ Greenock Morton 2 1362 25.04% Falkirk 2 1483 52.85% 22.11%
9 2011-01-22 63.6 @ Raith Rovers 2 1435 50.43% Greenock Morton 2 1362 27.23% 22.34%
10 2011-02-15 63.3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1499 42.89% Falkirk 1 1482 34.37% 22.74%
11 2010-10-23 63.2 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1440 54.21% Greenock Morton 2 1336 23.83% 21.96%
12 2011-02-22 63.1 @ Queen of the South 2 1478 66.68% Stirling Albion 2 1251 13.74% 19.57%
13 2011-03-01 63.0 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1296 20.54% Queen of the South 2 1461 58.02% 21.44%
14 2011-04-09 62.9 @ Raith Rovers 2 1448 59.01% Cowdenbeath 2 1301 19.72% 21.27%
15 2011-04-23 61.9 @ Queen of the South 2 1398 53.74% Cowdenbeath 2 1297 24.24% 22.01%
16 2010-12-14 61.5 @ Ross County 2 1344 41.74% Greenock Morton 2 1335 35.49% 22.77%
17 2011-04-09 61.3 Partick Thistle 3 1421 28.71% @ Falkirk 2 1482 48.83% 22.46%
18 2011-02-26 60.7 @ Dundee 1 1534 62.34% Greenock Morton 1 1354 17.02% 20.64%
19 2011-04-02 59.4 @ Raith Rovers 2 1437 27.12% Dundee 1 1539 50.56% 22.33%
20 2011-01-15 59.3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1500 40.32% Dundee 0 1502 36.89% 22.79%
21 2011-03-08 58.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1489 59.97% Ross County 1 1333 18.93% 21.10%
22 2011-05-07 58.4 @ Stirling Albion 3 1178 18.81% Greenock Morton 2 1363 60.12% 21.08%
23 2011-04-10 58.0 @ Dundee 1 1528 75.44% Stirling Albion 1 1186 8.08% 16.48%
24 2010-10-16 57.6 @ Stirling Albion 1 1365 31.93% Dundee 1 1428 45.42% 22.65%
25 2011-03-15 57.5 @ Stirling Albion 1 1243 13.84% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1496 66.55% 19.61%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-03-22 31.2 Partick Thistle 3 1405 58.16% @ Stirling Albion 0 1238 20.43% 21.41%
2 2011-03-29 31.4 Queen of the South 2 1440 64.15% @ Stirling Albion 0 1214 15.62% 20.23%
3 2011-04-05 31.6 @ Greenock Morton 2 1363 61.22% Stirling Albion 0 1195 17.92% 20.87%
4 2011-04-02 33.5 Ross County 2 1343 54.85% @ Stirling Albion 0 1206 23.27% 21.88%
5 2011-02-26 34.0 @ Falkirk 2 1483 62.17% Cowdenbeath 0 1304 17.16% 20.67%
6 2011-03-26 34.2 @ Queen of the South 4 1431 64.98% Stirling Albion 1 1223 15.00% 20.02%
7 2011-05-07 34.2 @ Ross County 3 1365 48.85% Cowdenbeath 0 1304 28.69% 22.46%
8 2011-03-19 34.3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1493 68.40% Stirling Albion 1 1246 12.53% 19.07%
9 2010-12-18 34.4 @ Dundee 2 1483 61.40% Stirling Albion 0 1313 17.77% 20.83%
10 2011-02-19 34.7 Raith Rovers 3 1429 51.13% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1323 26.60% 22.28%
11 2011-02-12 34.9 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1477 54.32% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1344 23.74% 21.95%
12 2010-11-13 35.2 Falkirk 5 1476 54.84% @ Stirling Albion 0 1339 23.28% 21.88%
13 2010-09-25 35.5 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1474 57.32% @ Partick Thistle 0 1315 21.13% 21.54%
14 2011-02-19 35.5 Dundee 1 1524 67.97% @ Stirling Albion 0 1254 12.83% 19.20%
15 2010-08-14 35.8 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1436 54.51% Greenock Morton 0 1329 23.57% 21.92%
16 2011-01-02 36.0 @ Dundee 2 1492 59.15% Ross County 0 1343 19.60% 21.25%
17 2010-10-30 36.3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1471 52.82% Stirling Albion 0 1378 25.06% 22.11%
18 2011-04-30 36.5 @ Cowdenbeath 1 1298 55.44% Stirling Albion 0 1183 22.75% 21.81%
19 2011-02-19 36.9 Queen of the South 4 1452 47.82% @ Greenock Morton 0 1371 29.65% 22.52%
20 2010-11-13 37.0 Dundee 3 1434 46.39% @ Ross County 0 1365 31.00% 22.61%
21 2011-03-22 37.3 Greenock Morton 2 1367 45.26% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1305 32.08% 22.66%
22 2011-01-15 37.5 @ Partick Thistle 6 1336 45.88% Stirling Albion 1 1298 31.49% 22.63%
23 2011-04-02 37.6 Dunfermline Athletic 1 1506 62.64% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1295 16.79% 20.57%
24 2010-08-21 37.7 @ Falkirk 3 1436 46.51% Stirling Albion 0 1393 30.89% 22.60%
25 2010-12-29 38.1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1481 51.32% Cowdenbeath 0 1401 26.42% 22.26%