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2011-12 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Ross County

79 pts

Dundee · 55 pts

Relegated

Queen of the South

32 pts

Ayr United · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Ross County

21.35 points above expected

79 points · 57.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Queen of the South

11.45 points below expected

32 points · 43.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ross County Promoted 36 22 13 1 79 72 32 +40 57.65 +21.35
2 Dundee Promoted 36 15 10 11 55 53 43 +10 34.44 +20.56
3 Falkirk 36 13 13 10 52 53 48 +5 56.98 -4.98
4 Hamilton Academical 36 14 7 15 49 55 56 -1 50.44 -1.44
5 Livingston 36 13 9 14 48 56 54 +2 53.27 -5.27
6 Partick Thistle 36 12 11 13 47 50 39 +11 52.32 -5.32
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 11 14 44 46 49 -3 46.21 -2.21
8 Greenock Morton 36 10 12 14 42 40 55 -15 40.08 +1.92
9 Ayr United Relegated 36 9 11 16 38 44 67 -23 34.08 +3.92
10 Queen of the South Relegated 36 7 11 18 32 38 64 -26 43.45 -11.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ross County 79 57.65 +21.35
2 Dundee 55 34.44 +20.56
3 Ayr United 38 34.08 +3.92
4 Greenock Morton 42 40.08 +1.92
5 Hamilton Academical 49 50.44 -1.44

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Queen of the South 32 43.45 -11.45
2 Partick Thistle 47 52.32 -5.32
3 Livingston 48 53.27 -5.27
4 Falkirk 52 56.98 -4.98
5 Raith Rovers 44 46.21 -2.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ross County 9 Sep 24 – Dec 3 1 in 7,692
2 Dundee 5 Nov 5 – Dec 10 1 in 59
3 Ayr United 2 Mar 3 – Mar 6 1 in 24
4 Hamilton Academical 3 Mar 17 – Mar 24 1 in 24
5 Raith Rovers 3 Apr 21 – May 5 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 4 Mar 17 – Apr 7 1 in 97
2 Raith Rovers 4 Oct 22 – Nov 12 1 in 58
3 Livingston 3 Feb 25 – Mar 6 1 in 48
4 Dundee 3 Apr 14 – Apr 28 1 in 43
5 Queen of the South 4 Dec 10 – Jan 2 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ross County 34 Aug 20 – May 5 1 in 222,841
2 Falkirk 11 Dec 3 – Feb 25 1 in 41
3 Livingston 9 Aug 20 – Oct 29 1 in 29
4 Ayr United 4 Jan 14 – Feb 18 1 in 25
5 Dundee 9 Jan 2 – Mar 17 1 in 20

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 6 Mar 3 – Apr 7 1 in 40
2 Dundee 5 Jan 21 – Feb 25 1 in 20
3 Raith Rovers 7 Dec 26 – Feb 21 1 in 14
4 Ayr United 9 Nov 30 – Feb 21 1 in 12
5 Hamilton Academical 5 Nov 12 – Dec 26 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ross County 1502 79 +34 13 9.9 +3.1
Dundee 1404 55 -41 4 8.4 -4.4
Falkirk 1378 52 +13 8 8.0 -0.0
Hamilton Academical 1349 49 -21 7 7.0 -0.0
Livingston 1367 48 +20 7 8.0 -1.0
Partick Thistle 1391 47 +12 6 7.5 -1.5
Raith Rovers 1331 44 +9 10 6.6 +3.4
Greenock Morton 1262 42 -2 5 4.8 +0.2
Ayr United 1244 38 +5 6 4.1 +1.9
Queen of the South 1241 32 -28 2 4.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU DUN FAL GM HA LIV PT QOTS RR RC
Ayr United —
1-1-2
3.34
1-2-1
3.41
0-1-3
5.07
1-1-2
3.84
3-1-0
3.54
0-1-3
3.76
1-1-2
4.49
2-2-0
4.36
0-1-3
3.22
Dundee
2-1-1
7.72
 —
2-1-1
5.89
2-0-2
7.48
1-1-2
6.41
3-0-1
6.18
1-1-2
6.18
1-3-0
7.11
3-1-0
6.73
0-2-2
5.60
Falkirk
1-2-1
7.64
1-1-2
5.05
 —
1-1-2
7.22
3-1-0
5.89
2-1-1
5.74
1-3-0
5.73
3-1-0
6.71
1-1-2
6.55
0-2-2
5.62
Greenock Morton
3-1-0
5.88
2-0-2
3.55
2-1-1
3.80
 —
1-0-3
4.41
1-2-1
4.02
1-1-2
4.15
0-2-2
5.18
0-2-2
4.96
0-3-1
3.70
Hamilton Academical
2-1-1
7.16
2-1-1
4.55
0-1-3
5.06
3-0-1
6.55
 —
1-1-2
5.09
1-2-1
5.18
3-0-1
6.30
1-1-2
6.28
1-0-3
4.89
Livingston
0-1-3
7.49
1-0-3
4.77
1-1-2
5.21
1-2-1
6.96
2-1-1
5.86
 —
3-0-1
5.30
2-2-0
6.35
3-1-0
6.25
0-1-3
5.18
Partick Thistle
3-1-0
7.25
2-1-1
4.78
0-3-1
5.22
2-1-1
6.83
1-2-1
5.76
1-0-3
5.65
 —
3-1-0
6.27
0-1-3
6.62
0-1-3
5.17
Queen of the South
2-1-1
6.48
0-3-1
3.90
0-1-3
4.26
2-2-0
5.76
1-0-3
4.66
0-2-2
4.61
0-1-3
4.68
 —
2-0-2
5.10
0-1-3
3.93
Raith Rovers
0-2-2
6.60
0-1-3
4.25
2-1-1
4.41
2-2-0
5.99
2-1-1
4.68
0-1-3
4.70
3-1-0
4.35
2-0-2
5.85
 —
0-2-2
4.28
Ross County
3-1-0
7.86
2-2-0
5.35
2-2-0
5.33
1-3-0
7.35
3-0-1
6.09
3-1-0
5.78
3-1-0
5.79
3-1-0
7.11
2-2-0
6.73
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +12.2
Allowed 0.69 -9.7
Differential 0.91 +6.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%8.89%3.06%2.78%1.39%0.83%24.72%
18.89%14.44%6.67%4.17%1.11%1.11%36.39%
23.06%6.67%7.78%2.78%1.11%0.28%21.67%
32.78%4.17%2.78%—0.56%0.28%10.56%
41.39%1.11%1.11%0.56%——4.17%
5+0.83%1.11%0.28%0.28%——2.50%
Total24.72%36.39%21.67%10.56%4.17%2.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.23 1.76
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%2.78%——5.56%—19.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%8.33%—47.22%
2—5.56%8.33%8.33%2.78%—25.00%
3—2.78%5.56%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%19.44%19.44%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.86 -0.64
SD 0.87 1.42 1.53
CV 0.71 0.76 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
113.89%19.44%5.56%2.78%——41.67%
22.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%—16.67%
32.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total25.00%47.22%13.89%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.19 +0.28
SD 1.36 1.04 1.67
CV 0.93 0.87 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
111.11%16.67%2.78%5.56%——36.11%
22.78%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%30.56%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%16.67%13.89%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.33 +0.14
SD 1.16 1.29 1.48
CV 0.79 0.97 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%2.78%8.33%——5.56%30.56%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%—41.67%
22.78%5.56%8.33%———16.67%
3—2.78%2.78%—2.78%—8.33%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%25.00%30.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.53 -0.42
SD 1.04 1.40 1.71
CV 0.93 0.92 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%16.67%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
22.78%11.11%11.11%5.56%——30.56%
32.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
42.78%——2.78%——5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total16.67%41.67%25.00%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.56 -0.03
SD 1.32 1.32 1.92
CV 0.86 0.85 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—8.33%2.78%—22.22%
18.33%13.89%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
22.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
45.56%—2.78%———8.33%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total25.00%27.78%25.00%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.50 +0.06
SD 1.36 1.21 1.93
CV 0.88 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%2.78%2.78%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%8.33%2.78%——27.78%
22.78%8.33%8.33%2.78%——22.22%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total30.56%38.89%22.22%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.08 +0.31
SD 1.44 0.94 1.82
CV 1.04 0.87 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%36.11%
15.56%8.33%11.11%8.33%—2.78%36.11%
22.78%5.56%11.11%———19.44%
3—————2.78%2.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total19.44%27.78%27.78%13.89%2.78%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 1.09 1.44 1.80
CV 1.04 0.81 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—19.44%5.56%2.78%2.78%—30.56%
15.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
22.78%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—19.44%
3—8.33%5.56%———13.89%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total11.11%55.56%25.00%2.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.36 -0.08
SD 1.21 0.93 1.63
CV 0.95 0.68 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
111.11%25.00%———2.78%38.89%
28.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
311.11%8.33%2.78%———22.22%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%2.78%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.89 +1.11
SD 1.26 1.04 1.51
CV 0.63 1.17 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ross County 1502 79 57.65 +21.35 99.0% 41 43 51 58 64 70 85
Dundee 1404 55 34.44 +20.56 35.0% 13 19 29 35 40 47 53
Partick Thistle 1391 47 52.32 -5.32 30.0% 33 40 46 52 59 66 71
Falkirk 1378 52 56.98 -4.98 32.0% 36 43 50 57 63 71 78
Livingston 1367 48 53.27 -5.27 27.0% 30 38 47 53 59 67 72
Hamilton Academical 1349 49 50.44 -1.44 48.0% 36 38 45 50 57 62 71
Raith Rovers 1331 44 46.21 -2.21 43.0% 27 34 42 45 52 57 67
Greenock Morton 1262 42 40.08 +1.92 64.0% 26 27 36 40 45 50 59
Ayr United 1244 38 34.08 +3.92 73.0% 21 23 29 34 40 45 52
Queen of the South 1241 32 43.45 -11.45 5.0% 20 27 40 43 49 54 61

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+7.78%
No Edge
38.89%30.00%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 27.08 Elo pts.
188 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.19 goals
Neutral
-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Ross County, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.67/gm
Runaway
00.161/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.28 * Some Luck: 6.28 to 9.43 * Lucky: 9.43 to 12.57 * Wild Swing: 12.57 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.27 * Close: 1.27 to 1.91 * Off: 1.91 to 2.55 * Way Off: 2.55 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.21 * A Surprise: 1.21 to 1.94 * Several Surprises: 1.94 to 2.66 * Many Surprises: 2.66 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.41 points
Some Luck
07.8620
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.594
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Ross County
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Queen of the South
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 81.45
1.65
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
65%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
82%
Even
50%82%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.50
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.49
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.83
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ross County35.00%23.00%15.00%9.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%——
Dundee——1.00%4.00%5.00%5.00%12.00%14.00%23.00%36.00%
Falkirk26.00%18.00%21.00%13.00%8.00%7.00%5.00%—2.00%—
Hamilton Academical9.00%12.00%12.00%13.00%21.00%13.00%8.00%8.00%4.00%—
Livingston15.00%19.00%17.00%17.00%9.00%9.00%7.00%2.00%5.00%—
Partick Thistle11.00%18.00%22.00%15.00%9.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%3.00%—
Raith Rovers3.00%5.00%8.00%15.00%16.00%13.00%12.00%17.00%9.00%2.00%
Greenock Morton—1.00%2.00%3.00%10.00%10.00%24.00%20.00%17.00%13.00%
Ayr United——1.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%11.00%15.00%24.00%43.00%
Queen of the South1.00%4.00%1.00%10.00%12.00%23.00%11.00%19.00%13.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Ross County 35.00% 65.00% — —
Falkirk 26.00% 72.00% 2.00% —
Livingston 15.00% 80.00% 5.00% —
Partick Thistle 11.00% 86.00% 3.00% —
Hamilton Academical 9.00% 87.00% 4.00% —
Raith Rovers 3.00% 86.00% 9.00% 2.00%
Queen of the South 1.00% 80.00% 13.00% 6.00%
Greenock Morton — 70.00% 17.00% 13.00%
Dundee — 41.00% 23.00% 36.00%
Ayr United — 33.00% 24.00% 43.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2011-08-06 Dundee L 0-142.4 1360 1406 32.61% 26.39% 41.01%-0.10 -5.9 0
2011-08-06 @ Partick Thistle W 1-042.4 1406 1360 41.01% 26.39% 32.61%+0.10 +5.9 3
2011-08-06 Falkirk W 1-043.9 1336 1377 33.19% 26.42% 40.39%-0.07 +6.9 3
2011-08-06 @ Raith Rovers L 0-143.9 1377 1336 40.39% 26.42% 33.19%+0.07 -6.9 0
2011-08-06 Greenock Morton D 0-048.6 1321 1298 42.18% 26.31% 31.51%+0.27 -0.4 1
2011-08-06 @ Ross County D 0-048.6 1298 1321 31.51% 26.31% 42.18%-0.27 +0.4 1
2011-08-06 Hamilton Academical L 1-244.9 1283 1357 28.96% 26.04% 45.01%-0.25 -5.1 0
2011-08-06 @ Ayr United W 2-144.9 1357 1283 45.01% 26.04% 28.96%+0.25 +5.1 3
2011-08-06 Queen of the South D 2-259.9 1381 1352 43.05% 26.24% 30.71%+0.30 -0.3 1
2011-08-06 @ Livingston D 2-259.9 1352 1381 30.71% 26.24% 43.05%-0.30 +0.3 1
2011-08-13 Ayr United D 1-154.5 1411 1278 56.45% 23.68% 19.87%+0.86 -1.4 4
2011-08-13 @ Dundee D 1-154.5 1278 1411 19.87% 23.68% 56.45%-0.86 +1.3 1
2011-08-13 Livingston W 2-150.4 1298 1381 27.97% 25.90% 46.13%-0.30 +7.2 4
2011-08-13 @ Greenock Morton L 1-250.4 1381 1298 46.13% 25.90% 27.97%+0.30 -7.2 1
2011-08-13 Partick Thistle W 2-147.0 1370 1354 41.12% 26.38% 32.50%+0.23 +5.5 3
2011-08-13 @ Falkirk L 1-247.0 1354 1370 32.50% 26.38% 41.12%-0.23 -5.6 0
2011-08-13 Raith Rovers L 1-345.7 1352 1343 40.25% 26.43% 33.33%+0.19 -11.3 1
2011-08-13 @ Queen of the South W 3-145.7 1343 1352 33.33% 26.43% 40.25%-0.19 +11.3 6
2011-08-13 Ross County W 5-138.4 1362 1320 44.75% 26.07% 29.19%+0.37 +16.1 6
2011-08-13 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-538.4 1320 1362 29.19% 26.07% 44.75%-0.37 -16.1 1
2011-08-20 Dundee W 4-251.0 1373 1410 33.76% 26.45% 39.80%-0.05 +10.0 4
2011-08-20 @ Livingston L 2-451.0 1410 1373 39.80% 26.45% 33.76%+0.05 -10.0 4
2011-08-20 Falkirk D 2-259.1 1279 1375 26.40% 25.63% 47.97%-0.37 +0.6 2
2011-08-20 @ Ayr United D 2-259.1 1375 1279 47.97% 25.63% 26.40%+0.37 -0.6 4
2011-08-20 Greenock Morton D 1-153.5 1354 1305 45.71% 25.95% 28.34%+0.40 -0.6 7
2011-08-20 @ Raith Rovers D 1-153.5 1305 1354 28.34% 25.95% 45.71%-0.40 +0.6 5
2011-08-20 Hamilton Academical D 1-154.1 1349 1378 34.77% 26.48% 38.75%-0.01 +0.1 1
2011-08-20 @ Partick Thistle D 1-154.1 1378 1349 38.75% 26.48% 34.77%+0.01 -0.1 7
2011-08-20 Queen of the South W 2-039.5 1304 1341 33.77% 26.45% 39.78%-0.05 +12.9 4
2011-08-20 @ Ross County L 0-239.5 1341 1304 39.78% 26.45% 33.77%+0.05 -12.9 1
2011-08-27 Greenock Morton L 0-146.7 1400 1306 51.62% 24.93% 23.45%+0.64 -8.4 4
2011-08-27 @ Dundee W 1-046.7 1306 1400 23.45% 24.93% 51.62%-0.64 +8.4 8
2011-08-27 Livingston D 1-154.7 1378 1383 38.16% 26.49% 35.35%+0.11 -0.1 8
2011-08-27 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-154.7 1383 1378 35.35% 26.49% 38.16%-0.11 +0.1 5
2011-08-27 Queen of the South W 2-146.2 1349 1328 41.92% 26.33% 31.75%+0.26 +5.5 4
2011-08-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-246.2 1328 1349 31.75% 26.33% 41.92%-0.26 -5.4 1
2011-08-27 Raith Rovers W 2-149.6 1280 1354 28.99% 26.04% 44.97%-0.25 +7.1 5
2011-08-27 @ Ayr United L 1-249.6 1354 1280 44.97% 26.04% 28.99%+0.25 -7.1 7
2011-08-27 Ross County D 1-153.9 1375 1317 46.90% 25.79% 27.30%+0.45 -0.7 5
2011-08-27 @ Falkirk D 1-153.9 1317 1375 27.30% 25.79% 46.90%-0.45 +0.7 5
2011-09-10 Ayr United W 4-139.5 1314 1287 42.84% 26.26% 30.91%+0.29 +13.1 11
2011-09-10 @ Greenock Morton L 1-439.5 1287 1314 30.91% 26.26% 42.84%-0.29 -13.1 5
2011-09-10 Dundee L 0-141.9 1346 1392 32.61% 26.39% 41.01%-0.10 -5.9 7
2011-09-10 @ Raith Rovers W 1-041.9 1392 1346 41.01% 26.39% 32.61%+0.10 +5.9 7
2011-09-10 Falkirk D 1-154.7 1384 1374 40.28% 26.42% 33.30%+0.19 -0.2 6
2011-09-10 @ Livingston D 1-154.7 1374 1384 33.30% 26.42% 40.28%-0.19 +0.2 6
2011-09-10 Hamilton Academical W 1-044.3 1322 1378 31.27% 26.29% 42.44%-0.15 +7.2 4
2011-09-10 @ Queen of the South L 0-144.3 1378 1322 42.44% 26.29% 31.27%+0.15 -7.2 8
2011-09-10 Partick Thistle D 2-259.1 1318 1354 33.77% 26.45% 39.78%-0.05 +0.2 6
2011-09-10 @ Ross County D 2-259.1 1354 1318 39.78% 26.45% 33.77%+0.05 -0.2 5
2011-09-17 Ayr United W 4-032.4 1354 1274 49.91% 25.29% 24.80%+0.57 +16.9 8
2011-09-17 @ Partick Thistle L 0-432.4 1274 1354 24.80% 25.29% 49.91%-0.57 -16.9 5
2011-09-17 Dundee W 2-149.5 1374 1398 35.62% 26.50% 37.88%+0.02 +6.2 9
2011-09-17 @ Falkirk L 1-249.5 1398 1374 37.88% 26.50% 35.62%-0.02 -6.2 7
2011-09-17 Greenock Morton W 4-141.1 1330 1328 39.23% 26.47% 34.30%+0.16 +14.2 7
2011-09-17 @ Queen of the South L 1-441.1 1328 1330 34.30% 26.47% 39.23%-0.16 -14.2 11
2011-09-17 Livingston D 1-153.9 1318 1383 30.04% 26.17% 43.80%-0.20 +0.5 7
2011-09-17 @ Ross County D 1-153.9 1383 1318 43.80% 26.17% 30.04%+0.20 -0.5 7
2011-09-17 Raith Rovers D 2-259.6 1371 1340 43.18% 26.23% 30.60%+0.30 -0.3 9
2011-09-17 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-259.6 1340 1371 30.60% 26.23% 43.18%-0.30 +0.3 8
2011-09-24 Falkirk W 3-255.1 1313 1381 29.80% 26.14% 44.06%-0.21 +6.6 14
2011-09-24 @ Greenock Morton L 2-355.1 1381 1313 44.06% 26.14% 29.80%+0.21 -6.6 9
2011-09-24 Hamilton Academical L 0-145.1 1391 1370 41.90% 26.33% 31.77%+0.26 -7.1 7
2011-09-24 @ Dundee W 1-045.1 1370 1391 31.77% 26.33% 41.90%-0.26 +7.1 12
2011-09-24 Partick Thistle W 2-147.7 1383 1371 40.59% 26.41% 33.00%+0.21 +5.6 10
2011-09-24 @ Livingston L 1-247.7 1371 1383 33.00% 26.41% 40.59%-0.21 -5.6 8
2011-09-24 Queen of the South W 1-044.5 1257 1344 27.45% 25.82% 46.73%-0.32 +7.8 8
2011-09-24 @ Ayr United L 0-144.5 1344 1257 46.73% 25.82% 27.45%+0.32 -7.8 7
2011-09-24 Ross County L 0-143.7 1341 1318 42.09% 26.31% 31.59%+0.26 -7.2 8
2011-09-24 @ Raith Rovers W 1-043.7 1318 1341 31.59% 26.31% 42.09%-0.26 +7.2 10
2011-09-30 Greenock Morton W 5-035.1 1366 1320 45.28% 26.01% 28.72%+0.39 +23.5 11
2011-09-30 @ Partick Thistle L 0-535.1 1320 1366 28.72% 26.01% 45.28%-0.39 -23.5 14
2011-10-01 Ayr United W 4-032.8 1326 1264 47.36% 25.72% 26.91%+0.47 +18.1 13
2011-10-01 @ Ross County L 0-432.8 1264 1326 26.91% 25.72% 47.36%-0.47 -18.1 8
2011-10-01 Dundee D 0-049.7 1336 1384 32.22% 26.36% 41.42%-0.11 +0.3 8
2011-10-01 @ Queen of the South D 0-049.7 1384 1336 41.42% 26.36% 32.22%+0.11 -0.4 8
2011-10-01 Falkirk L 0-144.2 1377 1374 39.44% 26.46% 34.10%+0.16 -6.8 12
2011-10-01 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-044.2 1374 1377 34.10% 26.46% 39.44%-0.16 +6.8 12
2011-10-01 Raith Rovers D 1-154.3 1388 1334 46.52% 25.85% 27.63%+0.44 -0.7 11
2011-10-01 @ Livingston D 1-154.3 1334 1388 27.63% 25.85% 46.52%-0.44 +0.7 9
2011-10-15 Hamilton Academical L 0-236.3 1296 1371 28.95% 26.04% 45.01%-0.25 -10.1 14
2011-10-15 @ Greenock Morton W 2-036.3 1371 1296 45.01% 26.04% 28.95%+0.25 +10.1 15
2011-10-15 Livingston D 0-049.3 1246 1388 21.87% 24.44% 53.69%-0.61 +1.3 9
2011-10-15 @ Ayr United D 0-049.3 1388 1246 53.69% 24.44% 21.87%+0.61 -1.3 12
2011-10-15 Partick Thistle W 2-041.1 1334 1389 31.37% 26.30% 42.33%-0.15 +13.6 12
2011-10-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-241.1 1389 1334 42.33% 26.30% 31.37%+0.15 -13.6 11
2011-10-15 Queen of the South W 1-040.4 1381 1336 45.12% 26.02% 28.85%+0.38 +5.4 15
2011-10-15 @ Falkirk L 0-140.4 1336 1381 28.85% 26.02% 45.12%-0.38 -5.4 8
2011-10-15 Ross County L 1-250.6 1384 1344 44.54% 26.09% 29.37%+0.36 -7.1 8
2011-10-15 @ Dundee W 2-150.6 1344 1384 29.37% 26.09% 44.54%-0.36 +7.0 16
2011-10-22 Dundee L 1-339.4 1248 1377 23.02% 24.81% 52.17%-0.54 -7.2 9
2011-10-22 @ Ayr United W 3-139.4 1377 1248 52.17% 24.81% 23.02%+0.54 +7.2 11
2011-10-22 Falkirk D 2-260.3 1376 1386 37.42% 26.50% 36.07%+0.09 -0.0 12
2011-10-22 @ Partick Thistle D 2-260.3 1386 1376 36.07% 26.50% 37.42%-0.09 +0.0 16
2011-10-22 Greenock Morton D 1-154.0 1386 1286 52.38% 24.76% 22.86%+0.68 -1.1 13
2011-10-22 @ Livingston D 1-154.0 1286 1386 22.86% 24.76% 52.38%-0.68 +1.1 15
2011-10-22 Hamilton Academical W 1-043.7 1351 1381 34.67% 26.48% 38.85%-0.02 +6.7 19
2011-10-22 @ Ross County L 0-143.7 1381 1351 38.85% 26.48% 34.67%+0.02 -6.7 15
2011-10-22 Queen of the South L 0-240.2 1348 1331 41.33% 26.37% 32.30%+0.23 -13.3 12
2011-10-22 @ Raith Rovers W 2-040.2 1331 1348 32.30% 26.37% 41.33%-0.23 +13.3 11
2011-10-29 Ayr United L 2-357.3 1374 1240 56.43% 23.69% 19.88%+0.86 -8.1 15
2011-10-29 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-257.3 1240 1374 19.88% 23.69% 56.43%-0.86 +8.1 12
2011-10-29 Livingston L 0-238.5 1344 1385 33.16% 26.42% 40.43%-0.07 -11.3 11
2011-10-29 @ Queen of the South W 2-038.5 1385 1344 40.43% 26.42% 33.16%+0.07 +11.3 16
2011-10-29 Partick Thistle L 0-144.6 1384 1375 40.15% 26.43% 33.42%+0.19 -6.9 11
2011-10-29 @ Dundee W 1-044.6 1375 1384 33.42% 26.43% 40.15%-0.19 +6.9 15
2011-10-29 Raith Rovers W 2-036.6 1386 1335 46.09% 25.90% 28.01%+0.42 +9.9 19
2011-10-29 @ Falkirk L 0-236.6 1335 1386 28.01% 25.90% 46.09%-0.42 -9.9 12
2011-10-29 Ross County L 0-236.2 1287 1358 29.44% 26.10% 44.46%-0.23 -10.3 15
2011-10-29 @ Greenock Morton W 2-036.2 1358 1287 44.46% 26.10% 29.44%+0.23 +10.3 22
2011-11-05 Greenock Morton L 0-140.7 1249 1277 34.88% 26.48% 38.64%-0.01 -6.2 12
2011-11-05 @ Ayr United W 1-040.7 1277 1249 38.64% 26.48% 34.88%+0.01 +6.2 18
2011-11-05 Livingston W 4-356.8 1396 1397 38.84% 26.48% 34.68%+0.14 +5.4 22
2011-11-05 @ Falkirk L 3-456.8 1397 1396 34.68% 26.48% 38.84%-0.14 -5.4 16
2011-11-05 Queen of the South W 3-142.7 1366 1333 43.56% 26.19% 30.25%+0.32 +9.1 18
2011-11-05 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-342.7 1333 1366 30.25% 26.19% 43.56%-0.32 -9.1 11
2011-11-05 Raith Rovers W 1-039.9 1377 1325 46.20% 25.89% 27.91%+0.42 +5.2 14
2011-11-05 @ Dundee L 0-139.9 1325 1377 27.91% 25.89% 46.20%-0.42 -5.2 12
2011-11-05 Ross County L 0-144.7 1382 1368 41.01% 26.39% 32.61%+0.22 -7.0 15
2011-11-05 @ Partick Thistle W 1-044.7 1368 1382 32.61% 26.39% 41.01%-0.22 +7.0 25
2011-11-12 Ayr United L 0-145.0 1319 1242 49.46% 25.37% 25.17%+0.55 -8.1 12
2011-11-12 @ Raith Rovers W 1-045.0 1242 1319 25.17% 25.37% 49.46%-0.55 +8.1 15
2011-11-12 Dundee L 1-244.1 1283 1382 26.11% 25.57% 48.32%-0.38 -4.6 18
2011-11-12 @ Greenock Morton W 2-144.1 1382 1283 48.32% 25.57% 26.11%+0.38 +4.7 17
2011-11-12 Falkirk W 3-146.5 1375 1401 35.14% 26.49% 38.37%+0.00 +10.9 28
2011-11-12 @ Ross County L 1-346.5 1401 1375 38.37% 26.49% 35.14%+0.00 -10.9 22
2011-11-12 Hamilton Academical W 1-042.4 1391 1375 41.23% 26.37% 32.39%+0.23 +5.9 19
2011-11-12 @ Livingston L 0-142.4 1375 1391 32.39% 26.37% 41.23%-0.23 -5.9 18
2011-11-12 Partick Thistle D 0-049.4 1324 1375 31.79% 26.33% 41.88%-0.13 +0.4 12
2011-11-12 @ Queen of the South D 0-049.4 1375 1324 41.88% 26.33% 31.79%+0.13 -0.4 16
2011-11-26 Falkirk W 4-249.5 1387 1391 38.43% 26.49% 35.08%+0.13 +9.1 20
2011-11-26 @ Dundee L 2-449.5 1391 1387 35.08% 26.49% 38.43%-0.13 -9.1 22
2011-11-26 Hamilton Academical W 3-254.6 1311 1369 30.98% 26.26% 42.76%-0.16 +6.5 15
2011-11-26 @ Raith Rovers L 2-354.6 1369 1311 42.76% 26.26% 30.98%+0.16 -6.5 18
2011-11-26 Queen of the South D 2-258.5 1279 1324 32.56% 26.38% 41.06%-0.10 +0.2 19
2011-11-26 @ Greenock Morton D 2-258.5 1324 1279 41.06% 26.38% 32.56%+0.10 -0.2 13
2011-11-26 Ross County L 0-339.7 1397 1386 40.56% 26.41% 33.03%+0.21 -19.1 19
2011-11-26 @ Livingston W 3-039.7 1386 1397 33.03% 26.41% 40.56%-0.21 +19.1 31
2011-11-30 Partick Thistle D 0-049.1 1250 1375 23.47% 24.94% 51.59%-0.52 +1.1 16
2011-11-30 @ Ayr United D 0-049.1 1375 1250 51.59% 24.94% 23.47%+0.52 -1.1 17
2011-12-03 Ayr United W 4-137.6 1324 1252 48.85% 25.48% 25.67%+0.53 +11.2 16
2011-12-03 @ Queen of the South L 1-437.6 1252 1324 25.67% 25.48% 48.85%-0.53 -11.2 16
2011-12-03 Dundee L 1-640.7 1363 1396 34.21% 26.46% 39.33%-0.03 -22.4 18
2011-12-03 @ Hamilton Academical W 6-140.7 1396 1363 39.33% 26.46% 34.21%+0.03 +22.4 23
2011-12-03 Greenock Morton W 1-037.4 1381 1279 52.67% 24.69% 22.63%+0.69 +4.3 25
2011-12-03 @ Falkirk L 0-137.4 1279 1381 22.63% 24.69% 52.67%-0.69 -4.3 19
2011-12-03 Livingston W 2-148.3 1374 1378 38.33% 26.49% 35.18%+0.12 +5.9 20
2011-12-03 @ Partick Thistle L 1-248.3 1378 1374 35.18% 26.49% 38.33%-0.12 -5.9 19
2011-12-03 Raith Rovers W 4-244.9 1405 1318 50.71% 25.13% 24.16%+0.61 +6.7 34
2011-12-03 @ Ross County L 2-444.9 1318 1405 24.16% 25.13% 50.71%-0.61 -6.7 15
2011-12-10 Hamilton Academical D 0-049.9 1386 1340 45.26% 26.01% 28.73%+0.39 -0.6 26
2011-12-10 @ Falkirk D 0-049.9 1340 1386 28.73% 26.01% 45.26%-0.39 +0.7 19
2011-12-10 Livingston L 0-140.5 1311 1372 30.56% 26.22% 43.22%-0.18 -5.6 15
2011-12-10 @ Raith Rovers W 1-040.5 1372 1311 43.22% 26.22% 30.56%+0.18 +5.6 22
2011-12-10 Partick Thistle L 1-243.8 1275 1380 25.44% 25.43% 49.13%-0.42 -4.5 19
2011-12-10 @ Greenock Morton W 2-143.8 1380 1275 49.13% 25.43% 25.44%+0.42 +4.5 23
2011-12-10 Queen of the South W 2-144.8 1418 1335 50.23% 25.22% 24.55%+0.59 +4.4 26
2011-12-10 @ Dundee L 1-244.8 1335 1418 24.55% 25.22% 50.23%-0.59 -4.4 16
2011-12-17 Dundee D 1-156.3 1411 1423 37.31% 26.51% 36.18%+0.08 -0.0 35
2011-12-17 @ Ross County D 1-156.3 1423 1411 36.18% 26.51% 37.31%-0.08 +0.0 27
2011-12-17 Falkirk L 1-539.6 1331 1385 31.44% 26.30% 42.26%-0.14 -17.1 16
2011-12-17 @ Queen of the South W 5-139.6 1385 1331 42.26% 26.30% 31.44%+0.14 +17.1 29
2011-12-17 Raith Rovers L 0-146.1 1384 1305 49.67% 25.33% 25.00%+0.56 -8.2 23
2011-12-17 @ Partick Thistle W 1-046.1 1305 1384 25.00% 25.33% 49.67%-0.56 +8.2 18
2011-12-26 Greenock Morton L 0-148.1 1423 1270 58.67% 22.98% 18.35%+0.96 -9.4 27
2011-12-26 @ Dundee W 1-048.1 1270 1423 18.35% 22.98% 58.67%-0.96 +9.4 22
2011-12-26 Livingston L 0-142.0 1341 1378 33.73% 26.44% 39.82%-0.05 -6.1 19
2011-12-26 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-042.0 1378 1341 39.82% 26.44% 33.73%+0.05 +6.1 25
2011-12-26 Queen of the South W 1-039.3 1376 1314 47.52% 25.70% 26.78%+0.48 +5.0 26
2011-12-26 @ Partick Thistle L 0-139.3 1314 1376 26.78% 25.70% 47.52%-0.48 -5.0 16
2011-12-26 Raith Rovers D 1-152.7 1240 1314 29.07% 26.05% 44.88%-0.25 +0.5 17
2011-12-26 @ Ayr United D 1-152.7 1314 1240 44.88% 26.05% 29.07%+0.25 -0.6 19
2011-12-26 Ross County D 1-155.8 1402 1411 37.62% 26.50% 35.88%+0.09 -0.1 30
2011-12-26 @ Falkirk D 1-155.8 1411 1402 35.88% 26.50% 37.62%-0.09 +0.0 36
2012-01-02 Ayr United W 3-141.1 1279 1241 44.30% 26.12% 29.58%+0.35 +8.9 25
2012-01-02 @ Greenock Morton L 1-341.1 1241 1279 29.58% 26.12% 44.30%-0.35 -8.9 17
2012-01-02 Dundee L 0-139.5 1313 1414 25.96% 25.54% 48.50%-0.39 -4.9 19
2012-01-02 @ Raith Rovers W 1-039.5 1414 1313 48.50% 25.54% 25.96%+0.39 +4.9 30
2012-01-02 Falkirk L 1-249.3 1384 1402 36.32% 26.51% 37.17%+0.05 -6.0 25
2012-01-02 @ Livingston W 2-149.3 1402 1384 37.17% 26.51% 36.32%-0.05 +6.0 33
2012-01-02 Hamilton Academical L 1-246.9 1309 1335 35.21% 26.49% 38.30%+0.00 -5.9 16
2012-01-02 @ Queen of the South W 2-146.9 1335 1309 38.30% 26.49% 35.21%+0.00 +5.9 22
2012-01-13 Partick Thistle W 1-044.0 1341 1381 33.26% 26.42% 40.32%-0.07 +6.9 25
2012-01-13 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-144.0 1381 1341 40.32% 26.42% 33.26%+0.07 -6.9 26
2012-01-14 Ayr United D 0-050.0 1408 1232 61.27% 22.06% 16.67%+1.08 -1.9 34
2012-01-14 @ Falkirk D 0-050.0 1232 1408 16.67% 22.06% 61.27%-1.08 +1.9 18
2012-01-14 Livingston W 3-036.5 1418 1378 44.60% 26.08% 29.31%+0.36 +14.9 33
2012-01-14 @ Dundee L 0-336.5 1378 1418 29.31% 26.08% 44.60%-0.36 -14.9 25
2012-01-14 Raith Rovers D 1-152.8 1288 1308 36.09% 26.50% 37.41%+0.04 +0.0 26
2012-01-14 @ Greenock Morton D 1-152.8 1308 1288 37.41% 26.50% 36.09%-0.04 -0.0 20
2012-01-14 Ross County D 0-049.9 1303 1412 25.08% 25.35% 49.57%-0.43 +1.0 17
2012-01-14 @ Queen of the South D 0-049.9 1412 1303 49.57% 25.35% 25.08%+0.43 -1.0 37
2012-01-21 Dundee D 0-051.3 1374 1433 30.82% 26.25% 42.93%-0.17 +0.5 27
2012-01-21 @ Partick Thistle D 0-051.3 1433 1374 42.93% 26.25% 30.82%+0.17 -0.5 34
2012-01-21 Falkirk D 2-259.8 1308 1406 26.20% 25.59% 48.21%-0.38 +0.6 21
2012-01-21 @ Raith Rovers D 2-259.8 1406 1308 48.21% 25.59% 26.20%+0.38 -0.6 35
2012-01-21 Hamilton Academical D 2-258.7 1234 1348 24.54% 25.22% 50.24%-0.46 +0.7 19
2012-01-21 @ Ayr United D 2-258.7 1348 1234 50.24% 25.22% 24.54%+0.46 -0.7 26
2012-01-21 Queen of the South D 2-259.2 1363 1304 47.10% 25.76% 27.14%+0.46 -0.5 26
2012-01-21 @ Livingston D 2-259.2 1304 1363 27.14% 25.76% 47.10%-0.46 +0.5 18
2012-01-28 Greenock Morton W 2-145.7 1304 1288 41.21% 26.37% 32.42%+0.23 +5.5 21
2012-01-28 @ Queen of the South L 1-245.7 1288 1304 32.42% 26.37% 41.21%-0.23 -5.5 26
2012-01-28 Livingston W 3-035.8 1411 1362 45.62% 25.96% 28.42%+0.40 +14.5 40
2012-01-28 @ Ross County L 0-335.8 1362 1411 28.42% 25.96% 45.62%-0.40 -14.5 26
2012-02-11 Falkirk D 0-049.7 1283 1406 23.62% 24.98% 51.40%-0.51 +1.1 27
2012-02-11 @ Greenock Morton D 0-049.7 1406 1283 51.40% 24.98% 23.62%+0.51 -1.1 36
2012-02-11 Hamilton Academical D 2-261.1 1433 1347 50.57% 25.16% 24.28%+0.60 -0.7 35
2012-02-11 @ Dundee D 2-261.1 1347 1433 24.28% 25.16% 50.57%-0.60 +0.7 27
2012-02-11 Partick Thistle W 3-145.6 1348 1375 35.12% 26.49% 38.39%+0.00 +10.9 29
2012-02-11 @ Livingston L 1-345.6 1375 1348 38.39% 26.49% 35.12%+0.00 -10.9 27
2012-02-11 Queen of the South D 1-152.6 1235 1310 28.82% 26.02% 45.16%-0.26 +0.6 20
2012-02-11 @ Ayr United D 1-152.6 1310 1235 45.16% 26.02% 28.82%+0.26 -0.6 22
2012-02-11 Ross County D 1-154.6 1309 1425 24.29% 25.16% 50.55%-0.47 +0.9 22
2012-02-11 @ Raith Rovers D 1-154.6 1425 1309 50.55% 25.16% 24.29%+0.47 -1.0 41
2012-02-14 Greenock Morton L 1-250.3 1348 1284 47.73% 25.67% 26.61%+0.48 -7.5 27
2012-02-14 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-150.3 1284 1348 26.61% 25.67% 47.73%-0.48 +7.5 30
2012-02-18 Ayr United D 1-154.8 1424 1235 62.65% 21.53% 15.82%+1.15 -1.8 42
2012-02-18 @ Ross County D 1-154.8 1235 1424 15.82% 21.53% 62.65%-1.15 +1.8 21
2012-02-18 Dundee D 1-154.8 1309 1432 23.64% 24.99% 51.38%-0.51 +1.0 23
2012-02-18 @ Queen of the South D 1-154.8 1432 1309 51.38% 24.99% 23.64%+0.51 -1.0 36
2012-02-18 Falkirk L 0-141.3 1340 1405 30.16% 26.18% 43.66%-0.20 -5.5 27
2012-02-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-041.3 1405 1340 43.66% 26.18% 30.16%+0.20 +5.6 39
2012-02-18 Greenock Morton D 0-049.2 1364 1291 48.85% 25.48% 25.67%+0.53 -0.9 28
2012-02-18 @ Partick Thistle D 0-049.2 1291 1364 25.67% 25.48% 48.85%-0.53 +0.9 31
2012-02-18 Raith Rovers W 4-034.0 1359 1310 45.77% 25.95% 28.29%+0.41 +18.9 32
2012-02-18 @ Livingston L 0-434.0 1310 1359 28.29% 25.95% 45.77%-0.41 -18.9 22
2012-02-21 Ayr United W 4-242.1 1363 1237 55.53% 23.95% 20.52%+0.81 +5.8 31
2012-02-21 @ Partick Thistle L 2-442.1 1237 1363 20.52% 23.95% 55.53%-0.81 -5.8 21
2012-02-21 Dundee D 1-156.5 1410 1431 35.94% 26.50% 37.56%+0.03 +0.0 40
2012-02-21 @ Falkirk D 1-156.5 1431 1410 37.56% 26.50% 35.94%-0.03 -0.1 37
2012-02-21 Raith Rovers W 2-144.7 1335 1291 45.06% 26.03% 28.91%+0.38 +5.1 30
2012-02-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-244.7 1291 1335 28.91% 26.03% 45.06%-0.38 -5.1 22
2012-02-25 Hamilton Academical L 1-245.9 1292 1340 32.31% 26.37% 41.33%-0.11 -5.5 31
2012-02-25 @ Greenock Morton W 2-145.9 1340 1292 41.33% 26.37% 32.31%+0.11 +5.5 33
2012-02-25 Livingston W 3-148.5 1231 1378 21.40% 24.28% 54.32%-0.64 +14.4 24
2012-02-25 @ Ayr United L 1-348.5 1378 1231 54.32% 24.28% 21.40%+0.64 -14.4 32
2012-02-25 Partick Thistle W 2-150.1 1286 1369 27.92% 25.89% 46.19%-0.30 +7.3 25
2012-02-25 @ Raith Rovers L 1-250.1 1369 1286 46.19% 25.89% 27.92%+0.30 -7.3 31
2012-02-25 Queen of the South W 3-032.8 1410 1310 52.35% 24.77% 22.88%+0.68 +12.0 43
2012-02-25 @ Falkirk L 0-332.8 1310 1410 22.88% 24.77% 52.35%-0.68 -12.0 23
2012-02-25 Ross County D 1-156.9 1431 1422 40.18% 26.43% 33.39%+0.19 -0.2 38
2012-02-25 @ Dundee D 1-156.9 1422 1431 33.39% 26.43% 40.18%-0.19 +0.2 43
2012-02-29 Ross County L 2-346.3 1245 1423 18.85% 23.22% 57.93%-0.80 -3.3 24
2012-02-29 @ Ayr United W 3-246.3 1423 1245 57.93% 23.22% 18.85%+0.80 +3.3 46
2012-03-03 Dundee L 2-352.5 1363 1431 29.77% 26.14% 44.09%-0.22 -4.9 32
2012-03-03 @ Livingston W 3-252.5 1431 1363 44.09% 26.14% 29.77%+0.22 +4.9 41
2012-03-03 Falkirk W 1-047.7 1242 1422 18.62% 23.11% 58.27%-0.81 +9.3 27
2012-03-03 @ Ayr United L 0-147.7 1422 1242 58.27% 23.11% 18.62%+0.81 -9.3 43
2012-03-03 Greenock Morton W 5-035.8 1293 1287 39.83% 26.44% 33.73%+0.18 +26.7 28
2012-03-03 @ Raith Rovers L 0-535.8 1287 1293 33.73% 26.44% 39.83%-0.18 -26.7 31
2012-03-03 Hamilton Academical W 2-037.9 1361 1345 41.21% 26.37% 32.41%+0.23 +11.1 34
2012-03-03 @ Partick Thistle L 0-237.9 1345 1361 32.41% 26.37% 41.21%-0.23 -11.1 33
2012-03-03 Queen of the South W 2-142.7 1426 1298 55.71% 23.90% 20.39%+0.82 +3.7 49
2012-03-03 @ Ross County L 1-242.7 1298 1426 20.39% 23.90% 55.71%-0.82 -3.7 23
2012-03-06 Ayr United L 1-251.5 1358 1252 53.22% 24.56% 22.22%+0.71 -8.2 32
2012-03-06 @ Livingston W 2-151.5 1252 1358 22.22% 24.56% 53.22%-0.71 +8.2 30
2012-03-06 Partick Thistle W 3-036.0 1430 1373 46.82% 25.80% 27.38%+0.45 +14.1 52
2012-03-06 @ Ross County L 0-336.0 1373 1430 27.38% 25.80% 46.82%-0.45 -14.1 34
2012-03-10 Livingston L 1-340.8 1260 1350 27.08% 25.75% 47.17%-0.34 -8.3 31
2012-03-10 @ Greenock Morton W 3-140.8 1350 1260 47.17% 25.75% 27.08%+0.34 +8.3 35
2012-03-10 Partick Thistle D 1-155.1 1413 1358 46.48% 25.85% 27.67%+0.43 -0.7 44
2012-03-10 @ Falkirk D 1-155.1 1358 1413 27.67% 25.85% 46.48%-0.43 +0.7 35
2012-03-10 Raith Rovers W 1-042.2 1295 1320 35.35% 26.49% 38.16%+0.01 +6.6 26
2012-03-10 @ Queen of the South L 0-142.2 1320 1295 38.16% 26.49% 35.35%-0.01 -6.6 28
2012-03-10 Ross County L 0-236.6 1334 1444 25.01% 25.33% 49.66%-0.44 -9.0 33
2012-03-10 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-036.6 1444 1334 49.66% 25.33% 25.01%+0.44 +9.0 55
2012-03-13 Greenock Morton D 2-261.1 1453 1252 63.92% 21.01% 15.07%+1.21 -1.4 56
2012-03-13 @ Ross County D 2-261.1 1252 1453 15.07% 21.01% 63.92%-1.21 +1.4 32
2012-03-17 Ayr United D 2-258.4 1313 1260 46.33% 25.87% 27.79%+0.43 -0.5 29
2012-03-17 @ Raith Rovers D 2-258.4 1260 1313 27.79% 25.87% 46.33%-0.43 +0.5 31
2012-03-17 Dundee L 0-232.5 1253 1436 18.42% 23.01% 58.57%-0.83 -6.7 32
2012-03-17 @ Greenock Morton W 2-032.5 1436 1253 58.57% 23.01% 18.42%+0.83 +6.7 44
2012-03-17 Falkirk W 2-149.1 1451 1412 44.37% 26.11% 29.52%+0.35 +5.1 59
2012-03-17 @ Ross County L 1-249.1 1412 1451 29.52% 26.11% 44.37%-0.35 -5.1 44
2012-03-17 Hamilton Academical L 0-438.8 1359 1325 43.61% 26.19% 30.21%+0.32 -26.3 35
2012-03-17 @ Livingston W 4-038.8 1325 1359 30.21% 26.19% 43.61%-0.32 +26.3 36
2012-03-17 Partick Thistle L 0-535.6 1301 1359 30.97% 26.26% 42.77%-0.16 -25.0 26
2012-03-17 @ Queen of the South W 5-035.6 1359 1301 42.77% 26.26% 30.97%+0.16 +25.0 38
2012-03-20 Dundee W 3-149.3 1352 1442 27.01% 25.74% 47.25%-0.34 +12.8 39
2012-03-20 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-349.3 1442 1352 47.25% 25.74% 27.01%+0.34 -12.8 44
2012-03-20 Greenock Morton L 0-244.3 1407 1246 59.56% 22.68% 17.76%+1.00 -17.9 44
2012-03-20 @ Falkirk W 2-044.3 1246 1407 17.76% 22.68% 59.56%-1.00 +17.9 35
2012-03-24 Greenock Morton D 0-048.0 1260 1264 38.36% 26.49% 35.15%+0.12 -0.1 32
2012-03-24 @ Ayr United D 0-048.0 1264 1260 35.15% 26.49% 38.36%-0.12 +0.1 36
2012-03-24 Livingston L 2-548.2 1389 1332 46.81% 25.80% 27.38%+0.45 -15.6 44
2012-03-24 @ Falkirk W 5-248.2 1332 1389 27.38% 25.80% 46.81%-0.45 +15.6 38
2012-03-24 Queen of the South W 3-032.4 1364 1276 50.88% 25.09% 24.03%+0.61 +12.6 42
2012-03-24 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-332.4 1276 1364 24.03% 25.09% 50.88%-0.61 -12.6 26
2012-03-24 Raith Rovers D 1-155.1 1430 1313 54.46% 24.24% 21.30%+0.77 -1.2 45
2012-03-24 @ Dundee D 1-155.1 1313 1430 21.30% 24.24% 54.46%-0.77 +1.2 30
2012-03-24 Ross County L 0-143.0 1384 1456 29.19% 26.07% 44.74%-0.24 -5.4 38
2012-03-24 @ Partick Thistle W 1-043.0 1456 1384 44.74% 26.07% 29.19%+0.24 +5.4 62
2012-03-27 Ayr United W 4-135.1 1428 1260 60.41% 22.37% 17.21%+1.04 +7.7 48
2012-03-27 @ Dundee L 1-435.1 1260 1428 17.21% 22.37% 60.41%-1.04 -7.7 32
2012-03-31 Ayr United W 2-145.5 1264 1252 40.54% 26.41% 33.05%+0.20 +5.6 29
2012-03-31 @ Queen of the South L 1-245.5 1252 1264 33.05% 26.41% 40.54%-0.20 -5.6 32
2012-03-31 Livingston L 2-355.3 1379 1348 43.27% 26.22% 30.51%+0.31 -6.5 38
2012-03-31 @ Partick Thistle W 3-255.3 1348 1379 30.51% 26.22% 43.27%-0.31 +6.5 41
2012-03-31 Raith Rovers D 1-156.0 1462 1314 58.10% 23.17% 18.73%+0.93 -1.5 63
2012-03-31 @ Ross County D 1-156.0 1314 1462 18.73% 23.17% 58.10%-0.93 +1.5 31
2012-04-07 Falkirk W 3-143.5 1436 1374 47.54% 25.70% 26.76%+0.48 +8.2 51
2012-04-07 @ Dundee L 1-343.5 1374 1436 26.76% 25.70% 47.54%-0.48 -8.2 44
2012-04-07 Hamilton Academical W 2-149.8 1315 1377 30.48% 26.21% 43.30%-0.18 +6.9 34
2012-04-07 @ Raith Rovers L 1-249.8 1377 1315 43.30% 26.21% 30.48%+0.18 -6.9 42
2012-04-07 Partick Thistle L 1-339.5 1247 1372 23.38% 24.91% 51.71%-0.52 -7.3 32
2012-04-07 @ Ayr United W 3-139.5 1372 1247 51.71% 24.91% 23.38%+0.52 +7.3 41
2012-04-07 Queen of the South D 2-258.1 1264 1269 38.24% 26.49% 35.27%+0.12 -0.1 37
2012-04-07 @ Greenock Morton D 2-258.1 1269 1264 35.27% 26.49% 38.24%-0.12 +0.1 30
2012-04-07 Ross County L 1-343.1 1354 1460 25.37% 25.42% 49.21%-0.42 -7.9 41
2012-04-07 @ Livingston W 3-143.1 1460 1354 49.21% 25.42% 25.37%+0.42 +7.9 66
2012-04-10 Hamilton Academical W 3-037.3 1365 1370 38.28% 26.49% 35.23%+0.12 +17.1 47
2012-04-10 @ Falkirk L 0-337.3 1370 1365 35.23% 26.49% 38.28%-0.12 -17.1 42
2012-04-10 Livingston L 0-336.5 1322 1347 35.46% 26.50% 38.04%+0.01 -17.2 34
2012-04-10 @ Raith Rovers W 3-036.5 1347 1322 38.04% 26.50% 35.46%-0.01 +17.2 44
2012-04-10 Partick Thistle W 1-045.8 1264 1379 24.40% 25.19% 50.41%-0.47 +8.3 40
2012-04-10 @ Greenock Morton L 0-145.8 1379 1264 50.41% 25.19% 24.40%+0.47 -8.3 41
2012-04-10 Queen of the South D 1-155.3 1444 1269 61.15% 22.10% 16.75%+1.08 -1.7 52
2012-04-10 @ Dundee D 1-155.3 1269 1444 16.75% 22.10% 61.15%-1.08 +1.7 31
2012-04-11 Ross County L 1-336.8 1239 1468 15.24% 21.13% 63.63%-1.07 -4.8 32
2012-04-11 @ Ayr United W 3-136.8 1468 1239 63.63% 21.13% 15.24%+1.07 +4.8 69
2012-04-14 Ayr United L 0-146.6 1364 1235 55.90% 23.84% 20.25%+0.83 -9.0 44
2012-04-14 @ Livingston W 1-046.6 1235 1364 20.25% 23.84% 55.90%-0.83 +9.0 35
2012-04-14 Dundee W 3-040.3 1473 1443 43.18% 26.23% 30.60%+0.30 +15.4 72
2012-04-14 @ Ross County L 0-340.3 1443 1473 30.60% 26.23% 43.18%-0.30 -15.4 52
2012-04-14 Falkirk D 0-049.2 1271 1383 24.77% 25.28% 49.95%-0.45 +1.0 32
2012-04-14 @ Queen of the South D 0-049.2 1383 1271 49.95% 25.28% 24.77%+0.45 -1.0 48
2012-04-14 Greenock Morton W 4-351.1 1353 1273 49.88% 25.29% 24.83%+0.57 +4.1 45
2012-04-14 @ Hamilton Academical L 3-451.1 1273 1353 24.83% 25.29% 49.88%-0.57 -4.1 40
2012-04-14 Raith Rovers D 1-153.7 1371 1305 48.04% 25.62% 26.34%+0.50 -0.8 42
2012-04-14 @ Partick Thistle D 1-153.7 1305 1371 26.34% 25.62% 48.04%-0.50 +0.8 35
2012-04-21 Ayr United W 3-246.9 1357 1244 54.01% 24.36% 21.62%+0.75 +3.7 48
2012-04-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 2-346.9 1244 1357 21.62% 24.36% 54.01%-0.75 -3.7 35
2012-04-21 Livingston L 0-433.5 1272 1355 27.94% 25.89% 46.16%-0.30 -18.7 32
2012-04-21 @ Queen of the South W 4-033.5 1355 1272 46.16% 25.89% 27.94%+0.30 +18.7 47
2012-04-21 Partick Thistle L 0-341.7 1427 1370 46.80% 25.81% 27.39%+0.45 -21.3 52
2012-04-21 @ Dundee W 3-041.7 1370 1427 27.39% 25.81% 46.80%-0.45 +21.3 45
2012-04-21 Raith Rovers L 2-356.3 1382 1306 49.30% 25.40% 25.30%+0.55 -7.3 48
2012-04-21 @ Falkirk W 3-256.3 1306 1382 25.30% 25.40% 49.30%-0.55 +7.3 38
2012-04-21 Ross County D 1-156.1 1268 1488 15.80% 21.51% 62.69%-1.03 +1.8 41
2012-04-21 @ Greenock Morton D 1-156.1 1488 1268 62.69% 21.51% 15.80%+1.03 -1.8 73
2012-04-28 Dundee W 3-257.6 1240 1406 19.73% 23.62% 56.65%-0.74 +8.1 38
2012-04-28 @ Ayr United L 2-357.6 1406 1240 56.65% 23.62% 19.73%+0.74 -8.1 52
2012-04-28 Falkirk D 1-154.8 1392 1374 41.40% 26.36% 32.24%+0.24 -0.3 46
2012-04-28 @ Partick Thistle D 1-154.8 1374 1392 32.24% 26.36% 41.40%-0.24 +0.3 49
2012-04-28 Greenock Morton D 0-049.3 1373 1270 52.76% 24.67% 22.56%+0.69 -1.2 48
2012-04-28 @ Livingston D 0-049.3 1270 1373 22.56% 24.67% 52.76%-0.69 +1.2 42
2012-04-28 Hamilton Academical W 5-138.3 1487 1361 55.50% 23.96% 20.54%+0.81 +11.8 76
2012-04-28 @ Ross County L 1-538.3 1361 1487 20.54% 23.96% 55.50%-0.81 -11.8 48
2012-04-28 Queen of the South W 3-140.5 1313 1253 47.17% 25.75% 27.08%+0.46 +8.3 41
2012-04-28 @ Raith Rovers L 1-340.5 1253 1313 27.08% 25.75% 47.17%-0.46 -8.3 32
2012-05-05 Ayr United W 3-246.6 1375 1248 55.60% 23.93% 20.47%+0.82 +3.5 52
2012-05-05 @ Falkirk L 2-346.6 1248 1375 20.47% 23.93% 55.60%-0.82 -3.5 38
2012-05-05 Livingston W 1-042.0 1398 1372 42.55% 26.28% 31.17%+0.28 +5.7 55
2012-05-05 @ Dundee L 0-142.0 1372 1398 31.17% 26.28% 42.55%-0.28 -5.7 48
2012-05-05 Partick Thistle D 2-260.0 1349 1391 32.97% 26.41% 40.62%-0.08 +0.2 49
2012-05-05 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-260.0 1391 1349 40.62% 26.41% 32.97%+0.08 -0.2 47
2012-05-05 Raith Rovers L 1-342.3 1271 1321 32.00% 26.35% 41.65%-0.12 -9.5 42
2012-05-05 @ Greenock Morton W 3-142.3 1321 1271 41.65% 26.35% 32.00%+0.12 +9.5 44
2012-05-05 Ross County L 3-542.3 1245 1498 13.78% 20.04% 66.18%-1.20 -3.6 32
2012-05-05 @ Queen of the South W 5-342.3 1498 1245 66.18% 20.04% 13.78%+1.20 +3.6 79

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-03-20 17.76% Greenock Morton 1246 2 @ Falkirk 1407 0
2 2011-12-26 18.35% Greenock Morton 1270 1 @ Dundee 1423 0
3 2012-03-03 18.62% @ Ayr United 1242 1 Falkirk 1422 0
4 2012-04-28 19.73% @ Ayr United 1240 3 Dundee 1406 2
5 2011-10-29 19.88% Ayr United 1240 3 @ Hamilton Academical 1374 2
6 2012-04-14 20.25% Ayr United 1235 1 @ Livingston 1364 0
7 2012-02-25 21.40% @ Ayr United 1231 3 Livingston 1378 1
8 2012-03-06 22.22% Ayr United 1252 2 @ Livingston 1358 1
9 2011-08-27 23.45% Greenock Morton 1306 1 @ Dundee 1400 0
10 2012-04-10 24.40% @ Greenock Morton 1264 1 Partick Thistle 1379 0
11 2011-12-17 25.00% Raith Rovers 1305 1 @ Partick Thistle 1384 0
12 2011-11-12 25.17% Ayr United 1242 1 @ Raith Rovers 1319 0
13 2012-04-21 25.30% Raith Rovers 1306 3 @ Falkirk 1382 2
14 2012-02-14 26.61% Greenock Morton 1284 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1348 1
15 2012-03-20 27.01% @ Hamilton Academical 1352 3 Dundee 1442 1
16 2012-03-24 27.38% Livingston 1332 5 @ Falkirk 1389 2
17 2012-04-21 27.39% Partick Thistle 1370 3 @ Dundee 1427 0
18 2011-09-24 27.45% @ Ayr United 1257 1 Queen of the South 1344 0
19 2012-02-25 27.92% @ Raith Rovers 1286 2 Partick Thistle 1369 1
20 2011-08-13 27.97% @ Greenock Morton 1298 2 Livingston 1381 1
21 2011-08-27 28.99% @ Ayr United 1280 2 Raith Rovers 1354 1
22 2011-10-15 29.37% Ross County 1344 2 @ Dundee 1384 1
23 2011-09-24 29.80% @ Greenock Morton 1313 3 Falkirk 1381 2
24 2012-03-17 30.21% Hamilton Academical 1325 4 @ Livingston 1359 0
25 2012-04-07 30.48% @ Raith Rovers 1315 2 Hamilton Academical 1377 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-03-03 26.73 @ Raith Rovers 5 1293 39.83% Greenock Morton 0 1287 33.73% 26.44%
2 2012-03-17 26.33 Hamilton Academical 4 1325 30.21% @ Livingston 0 1359 43.61% 26.19%
3 2012-03-17 25.01 Partick Thistle 5 1359 42.77% @ Queen of the South 0 1301 30.97% 26.26%
4 2011-09-30 23.55 @ Partick Thistle 5 1366 45.28% Greenock Morton 0 1320 28.72% 26.01%
5 2011-12-03 22.37 Dundee 6 1396 39.33% @ Hamilton Academical 1 1363 34.21% 26.46%
6 2012-04-21 21.32 Partick Thistle 3 1370 27.39% @ Dundee 0 1427 46.80% 25.81%
7 2011-11-26 19.06 Ross County 3 1386 33.03% @ Livingston 0 1397 40.56% 26.41%
8 2012-02-18 18.87 @ Livingston 4 1359 45.77% Raith Rovers 0 1310 28.29% 25.95%
9 2012-04-21 18.68 Livingston 4 1355 46.16% @ Queen of the South 0 1272 27.94% 25.89%
10 2011-10-01 18.11 @ Ross County 4 1326 47.36% Ayr United 0 1264 26.91% 25.72%
11 2012-03-20 17.88 Greenock Morton 2 1246 17.76% @ Falkirk 0 1407 59.56% 22.68%
12 2012-04-10 17.24 Livingston 3 1347 38.04% @ Raith Rovers 0 1322 35.46% 26.50%
13 2012-04-10 17.15 @ Falkirk 3 1365 38.28% Hamilton Academical 0 1370 35.23% 26.49%
14 2011-12-17 17.12 Falkirk 5 1385 42.26% @ Queen of the South 1 1331 31.44% 26.30%
15 2011-09-17 16.89 @ Partick Thistle 4 1354 49.91% Ayr United 0 1274 24.80% 25.29%
16 2011-08-13 16.14 @ Hamilton Academical 5 1362 44.75% Ross County 1 1320 29.19% 26.07%
17 2012-03-24 15.57 Livingston 5 1332 27.38% @ Falkirk 2 1389 46.81% 25.80%
18 2012-04-14 15.39 @ Ross County 3 1473 43.18% Dundee 0 1443 30.60% 26.23%
19 2012-01-14 14.87 @ Dundee 3 1418 44.60% Livingston 0 1378 29.31% 26.08%
20 2012-01-28 14.50 @ Ross County 3 1411 45.62% Livingston 0 1362 28.42% 25.96%
21 2012-02-25 14.36 @ Ayr United 3 1231 21.40% Livingston 1 1378 54.32% 24.28%
22 2011-09-17 14.18 @ Queen of the South 4 1330 39.23% Greenock Morton 1 1328 34.30% 26.47%
23 2012-03-06 14.07 @ Ross County 3 1430 46.82% Partick Thistle 0 1373 27.38% 25.80%
24 2011-10-15 13.56 @ Raith Rovers 2 1334 31.37% Partick Thistle 0 1389 42.33% 26.30%
25 2011-10-22 13.31 Queen of the South 2 1331 32.30% @ Raith Rovers 0 1348 41.33% 26.37%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-02-11 61.1 @ Dundee 2 1433 50.57% Hamilton Academical 2 1347 24.28% 25.16%
2 2012-03-13 61.1 @ Ross County 2 1453 63.92% Greenock Morton 2 1252 15.07% 21.01%
3 2011-10-22 60.3 @ Partick Thistle 2 1376 37.42% Falkirk 2 1386 36.07% 26.50%
4 2012-05-05 60.0 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1349 32.97% Partick Thistle 2 1391 40.62% 26.41%
5 2011-08-06 59.9 @ Livingston 2 1381 43.05% Queen of the South 2 1352 30.71% 26.24%
6 2012-01-21 59.8 @ Raith Rovers 2 1308 26.20% Falkirk 2 1406 48.21% 25.59%
7 2011-09-17 59.6 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1371 43.18% Raith Rovers 2 1340 30.60% 26.23%
8 2012-01-21 59.2 @ Livingston 2 1363 47.10% Queen of the South 2 1304 27.14% 25.76%
9 2011-08-20 59.1 @ Ayr United 2 1279 26.40% Falkirk 2 1375 47.97% 25.63%
10 2011-09-10 59.1 @ Ross County 2 1318 33.77% Partick Thistle 2 1354 39.78% 26.45%
11 2012-01-21 58.7 @ Ayr United 2 1234 24.54% Hamilton Academical 2 1348 50.24% 25.22%
12 2011-11-26 58.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1279 32.56% Queen of the South 2 1324 41.06% 26.38%
13 2012-03-17 58.4 @ Raith Rovers 2 1313 46.33% Ayr United 2 1260 27.79% 25.87%
14 2012-04-07 58.1 @ Greenock Morton 2 1264 38.24% Queen of the South 2 1269 35.27% 26.49%
15 2012-04-28 57.6 @ Ayr United 3 1240 19.73% Dundee 2 1406 56.65% 23.62%
16 2011-10-29 57.3 Ayr United 3 1240 19.88% @ Hamilton Academical 2 1374 56.43% 23.69%
17 2012-02-25 56.9 @ Dundee 1 1431 40.18% Ross County 1 1422 33.39% 26.43%
18 2011-11-05 56.8 @ Falkirk 4 1396 38.84% Livingston 3 1397 34.68% 26.48%
19 2012-02-21 56.5 @ Falkirk 1 1410 35.94% Dundee 1 1431 37.56% 26.50%
20 2011-12-17 56.3 @ Ross County 1 1411 37.31% Dundee 1 1423 36.18% 26.51%
21 2012-04-21 56.3 Raith Rovers 3 1306 25.30% @ Falkirk 2 1382 49.30% 25.40%
22 2012-04-21 56.1 @ Greenock Morton 1 1268 15.80% Ross County 1 1488 62.69% 21.51%
23 2012-03-31 56.0 @ Ross County 1 1462 58.10% Raith Rovers 1 1314 18.73% 23.17%
24 2011-12-26 55.8 @ Falkirk 1 1402 37.62% Ross County 1 1411 35.88% 26.50%
25 2012-03-31 55.3 Livingston 3 1348 30.51% @ Partick Thistle 2 1379 43.27% 26.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2011-09-17 32.4 @ Partick Thistle 4 1354 49.91% Ayr United 0 1274 24.80% 25.29%
2 2012-03-24 32.4 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1364 50.88% Queen of the South 0 1276 24.03% 25.09%
3 2012-03-17 32.5 Dundee 2 1436 58.57% @ Greenock Morton 0 1253 18.42% 23.01%
4 2011-10-01 32.8 @ Ross County 4 1326 47.36% Ayr United 0 1264 26.91% 25.72%
5 2012-02-25 32.8 @ Falkirk 3 1410 52.35% Queen of the South 0 1310 22.88% 24.77%
6 2012-04-21 33.5 Livingston 4 1355 46.16% @ Queen of the South 0 1272 27.94% 25.89%
7 2012-02-18 34.0 @ Livingston 4 1359 45.77% Raith Rovers 0 1310 28.29% 25.95%
8 2011-09-30 35.1 @ Partick Thistle 5 1366 45.28% Greenock Morton 0 1320 28.72% 26.01%
9 2012-03-27 35.1 @ Dundee 4 1428 60.41% Ayr United 1 1260 17.21% 22.37%
10 2012-03-17 35.6 Partick Thistle 5 1359 42.77% @ Queen of the South 0 1301 30.97% 26.26%
11 2012-01-28 35.8 @ Ross County 3 1411 45.62% Livingston 0 1362 28.42% 25.96%
12 2012-03-03 35.8 @ Raith Rovers 5 1293 39.83% Greenock Morton 0 1287 33.73% 26.44%
13 2012-03-06 36.0 @ Ross County 3 1430 46.82% Partick Thistle 0 1373 27.38% 25.80%
14 2011-10-29 36.2 Ross County 2 1358 44.46% @ Greenock Morton 0 1287 29.44% 26.10%
15 2011-10-15 36.3 Hamilton Academical 2 1371 45.01% @ Greenock Morton 0 1296 28.95% 26.04%
16 2012-01-14 36.5 @ Dundee 3 1418 44.60% Livingston 0 1378 29.31% 26.08%
17 2012-04-10 36.5 Livingston 3 1347 38.04% @ Raith Rovers 0 1322 35.46% 26.50%
18 2011-10-29 36.6 @ Falkirk 2 1386 46.09% Raith Rovers 0 1335 28.01% 25.90%
19 2012-03-10 36.6 Ross County 2 1444 49.66% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1334 25.01% 25.33%
20 2012-04-11 36.8 Ross County 3 1468 63.63% @ Ayr United 1 1239 15.24% 21.13%
21 2012-04-10 37.3 @ Falkirk 3 1365 38.28% Hamilton Academical 0 1370 35.23% 26.49%
22 2011-12-03 37.4 @ Falkirk 1 1381 52.67% Greenock Morton 0 1279 22.63% 24.69%
23 2011-12-03 37.6 @ Queen of the South 4 1324 48.85% Ayr United 1 1252 25.67% 25.48%
24 2012-03-03 37.9 @ Partick Thistle 2 1361 41.21% Hamilton Academical 0 1345 32.41% 26.37%
25 2012-04-28 38.3 @ Ross County 5 1487 55.50% Hamilton Academical 1 1361 20.54% 23.96%