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2012-13 First Division Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Partick Thistle

78 pts

Relegated

Airdrie United

22 pts

Dunfermline Athletic · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Greenock Morton

19.77 points above expected

67 points · 47.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Airdrie United

18.32 points below expected

22 points · 40.32 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Partick Thistle Promoted 36 23 9 4 78 76 28 +48 61.17 +16.83
2 Greenock Morton 36 20 7 9 67 73 47 +26 47.23 +19.77
3 Falkirk 36 15 8 13 53 52 48 +4 47.44 +5.56
4 Livingston 36 14 10 12 52 58 56 +2 50.15 +1.85
5 Hamilton Academical 36 14 9 13 51 52 45 +7 45.69 +5.31
6 Raith Rovers 36 11 13 12 46 45 48 -3 44.22 +1.78
7 Dumbarton 36 13 4 19 43 58 83 -25 50.63 -7.63
8 Cowdenbeath 36 8 12 16 36 51 65 -14 40.07 -4.07
9 Dunfermline Athletic* Relegated 36 14 7 15 34 62 59 +3 39.22 -5.22
10 Airdrie United Relegated 36 5 7 24 22 41 89 -48 40.32 -18.32

* Point deductions: Dunfermline Athletic (-15 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Greenock Morton 67 47.23 +19.77
2 Partick Thistle 78 61.17 +16.83
3 Falkirk 53 47.44 +5.56
4 Hamilton Academical 51 45.69 +5.31
5 Livingston 52 50.15 +1.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Airdrie United 22 40.32 -18.32
2 Dumbarton 43 50.63 -7.63
3 Dunfermline Athletic 34 39.22 -5.22
4 Cowdenbeath 36 40.07 -4.07
5 Raith Rovers 46 44.22 +1.78

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 5 Sep 1 – Oct 6 1 in 1,141
2 Partick Thistle 8 Feb 19 – Mar 30 1 in 262
3 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Aug 25 – Sep 29 1 in 184
4 Cowdenbeath 3 Aug 18 – Sep 1 1 in 105
5 Hamilton Academical 4 Apr 2 – Apr 13 1 in 76

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 5 Aug 11 – Sep 15 1 in 2,010
2 Airdrie United 8 Mar 16 – Apr 27 1 in 277
3 Dunfermline Athletic 4 Feb 12 – Mar 2 1 in 149
4 Raith Rovers 3 Jan 12 – Jan 26 1 in 21
5 Cowdenbeath 4 Mar 23 – Apr 6 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 7 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 59
2 Partick Thistle 18 Jan 19 – May 4 1 in 50
3 Hamilton Academical 7 Apr 2 – Apr 27 1 in 17
4 Falkirk 6 Sep 15 – Oct 27 1 in 17
5 Dunfermline Athletic 8 Aug 25 – Oct 27 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dumbarton 10 Aug 11 – Oct 27 1 in 378
2 Cowdenbeath 16 Sep 15 – Jan 26 1 in 193
3 Dunfermline Athletic 10 Feb 12 – Apr 6 1 in 114
4 Airdrie United 15 Jan 19 – Apr 27 1 in 39
5 Hamilton Academical 7 Aug 11 – Sep 29 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Partick Thistle 1491 78 +6 9 9.7 -0.7
Greenock Morton 1377 67 -23 3 6.9 -3.9
Falkirk 1364 53 +7 7 7.1 -0.1
Livingston 1349 52 -24 4 7.8 -3.8
Hamilton Academical 1372 51 +23 10 7.0 +3.0
Dunfermline Athletic 1338 49 -1 7 6.9 +0.1
Raith Rovers 1316 46 -6 5 5.7 -0.7
Dumbarton 1339 43 +17 10 6.7 +3.3
Cowdenbeath 1277 36 +10 7 5.0 +2.0
Airdrie United 1208 22 -22 3 4.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU COW DUM DA FAL GM HA LIV PT RR
Airdrie United —
0-2-2
5.46
2-0-2
4.07
2-1-1
4.09
0-1-3
4.57
0-0-4
4.64
0-1-3
4.81
1-0-3
4.46
0-1-3
3.17
0-1-3
4.85
Cowdenbeath
2-2-0
5.24
 —
1-1-2
4.13
1-0-3
4.05
1-1-2
4.55
0-1-3
4.78
2-1-1
4.56
0-3-1
4.26
0-0-4
3.25
1-3-0
4.73
Dumbarton
2-0-2
6.65
2-1-1
6.63
 —
1-0-3
4.78
2-0-2
5.20
1-0-3
5.82
2-1-1
5.80
1-0-3
5.49
1-1-2
4.36
1-1-2
5.72
Dunfermline Athletic
1-1-2
6.71
3-0-1
6.67
3-0-1
5.92
 —
0-1-3
6.22
1-1-2
5.84
2-1-1
6.44
1-1-2
5.94
0-1-3
4.70
3-1-0
6.18
Falkirk
3-1-0
6.11
2-1-1
6.14
2-0-2
5.49
3-1-0
4.46
 —
2-0-2
5.41
1-2-1
5.74
2-0-2
5.08
0-1-3
4.27
0-2-2
5.70
Greenock Morton
4-0-0
6.12
3-1-0
5.92
3-0-1
4.88
2-1-1
4.87
2-0-2
5.25
 —
0-1-3
5.54
2-2-0
4.99
2-1-1
4.10
2-1-1
5.58
Hamilton Academical
3-1-0
5.91
1-1-2
6.15
1-1-2
4.89
1-1-2
4.27
1-2-1
4.92
3-1-0
5.13
 —
1-2-1
4.98
1-0-3
3.81
2-0-2
5.44
Livingston
3-0-1
6.26
1-3-0
6.43
3-0-1
5.16
2-1-1
4.75
2-0-2
5.58
0-2-2
5.67
1-2-1
5.67
 —
0-1-3
4.29
2-1-1
5.75
Partick Thistle
3-1-0
7.72
4-0-0
7.60
2-1-1
6.36
3-1-0
6.02
3-1-0
6.42
1-1-2
6.62
3-0-1
6.93
3-1-0
6.41
 —
1-3-0
7.19
Raith Rovers
3-1-0
5.82
0-3-1
5.95
2-1-1
4.93
0-1-3
4.50
2-2-0
4.96
1-1-2
5.08
2-0-2
5.23
1-1-2
4.92
0-3-1
3.62
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +11.3
Allowed 0.69 -7.3
Differential 0.83 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%6.67%3.89%2.22%0.83%24.17%
16.11%10.00%7.22%2.50%2.22%0.83%28.89%
26.67%7.22%6.67%2.50%1.11%0.28%24.44%
33.89%2.50%2.50%2.22%1.67%—12.78%
42.22%2.22%1.11%1.67%0.56%—7.78%
5+0.83%0.83%0.28%———1.94%
Total24.17%28.89%24.44%12.78%7.78%1.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.58 +0.00
SD 1.33 1.33 1.98
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%36.11%
1—11.11%11.11%2.78%8.33%—33.33%
22.78%2.78%2.78%5.56%—2.78%16.67%
3—2.78%—2.78%2.78%—8.33%
4—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%25.00%25.00%19.44%16.67%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.47 -1.33
SD 1.17 1.54 2.03
CV 1.03 0.62 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%2.78%8.33%5.56%—25.00%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
2——8.33%2.78%2.78%—13.89%
35.56%2.78%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
4—2.78%2.78%—2.78%—8.33%
5+———————
Total11.11%36.11%27.78%11.11%13.89%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.81 -0.39
SD 1.25 1.21 1.76
CV 0.88 0.67 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%2.78%8.33%16.67%2.78%2.78%36.11%
12.78%—5.56%—2.78%2.78%13.89%
22.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—25.00%
4—2.78%2.78%5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%13.89%30.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.31 -0.69
SD 1.48 1.33 2.15
CV 0.92 0.58 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%2.78%—2.78%—16.67%
111.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%30.56%
22.78%5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—25.00%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%2.78%—19.44%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———————
Total27.78%27.78%16.67%11.11%13.89%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.64 +0.08
SD 1.21 1.50 2.06
CV 0.70 0.91 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%11.11%———19.44%
18.33%13.89%8.33%5.56%5.56%—41.67%
213.89%8.33%2.78%———25.00%
3————2.78%—2.78%
42.78%5.56%—2.78%——11.11%
5+———————
Total30.56%30.56%22.22%8.33%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.33 +0.11
SD 1.18 1.24 1.75
CV 0.82 0.93 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—8.33%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
111.11%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—27.78%
28.33%5.56%11.11%———25.00%
35.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
42.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%——13.89%
5+—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%33.33%8.33%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 1.31 +0.72
SD 1.44 1.06 1.77
CV 0.71 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
15.56%16.67%8.33%5.56%——36.11%
211.11%8.33%2.78%2.78%——25.00%
35.56%—2.78%2.78%——11.11%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%19.44%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.25 +0.19
SD 1.21 1.13 1.91
CV 0.83 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
12.78%8.33%8.33%——2.78%22.22%
25.56%13.89%13.89%5.56%——38.89%
35.56%2.78%————8.33%
4—2.78%—2.78%——5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.56 +0.06
SD 1.25 1.30 2.01
CV 0.77 0.83 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%2.78%2.78%———16.67%
111.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
28.33%13.89%5.56%———27.78%
38.33%2.78%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
45.56%2.78%————8.33%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total47.22%33.33%13.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 0.78 +1.33
SD 1.69 0.90 1.93
CV 0.80 1.15 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%8.33%———33.33%
12.78%11.11%2.78%5.56%——22.22%
211.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
3——5.56%2.78%——8.33%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.33 -0.08
SD 1.11 1.17 1.23
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partick Thistle 1491 78 61.17 +16.83 99.0% 45 46 55 61 66 73 80
Greenock Morton 1377 67 47.23 +19.77 100.0% 32 37 42 46 53 58 63
Hamilton Academical 1372 51 45.69 +5.31 75.0% 24 31 41 45 51 59 70
Falkirk 1364 53 47.44 +5.56 80.0% 30 36 42 46 52 61 71
Livingston 1349 52 50.15 +1.85 64.0% 33 40 46 48 54 63 66
Dumbarton 1339 43 50.63 -7.63 17.0% 26 36 47 51 56 63 66
Dunfermline Athletic 1338 34 39.22 -5.22 19.0% 23 29 36 39 44 48 57
Raith Rovers 1316 46 44.22 +1.78 59.0% 22 31 39 45 49 54 67
Cowdenbeath 1277 36 40.07 -4.07 31.0% 24 31 36 39 43 52 57
Airdrie United 1208 22 40.32 -18.32 0.0% 27 30 34 40 44 53 58

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-1.67%
No Edge
37.22%23.89%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -5.79 Elo pts.
226 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.11 goals
Neutral
-2-0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
66%
Partick Thistle, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.87 * Some Luck: 5.87 to 8.8 * Lucky: 8.8 to 11.74 * Wild Swing: 11.74 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.55 * Close: 1.55 to 2.32 * Off: 2.32 to 3.09 * Way Off: 3.09 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.55 * A Surprise: 1.55 to 2.48 * Several Surprises: 2.48 to 3.41 * Many Surprises: 3.41 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
10.73 points
Lucky
07.3418
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.60
Close
01.934
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Greenock Morton
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Airdrie United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.62

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.78
2.03
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
57%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Frequent
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
2.39
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
-0.37
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
35%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
<0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.65
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.112
Well Within Noise
00.1230.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Partick Thistle66.00%17.00%7.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%———
Greenock Morton7.00%12.00%11.00%12.00%8.00%20.00%15.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%
Falkirk3.00%9.00%18.00%14.00%11.00%18.00%12.00%4.00%7.00%4.00%
Livingston9.00%17.00%13.00%18.00%15.00%10.00%8.00%8.00%—2.00%
Hamilton Academical2.00%12.00%17.00%9.00%14.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%4.00%12.00%
Raith Rovers3.00%6.00%5.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%9.00%8.00%11.00%13.00%
Dumbarton10.00%19.00%17.00%17.00%15.00%6.00%3.00%4.00%4.00%5.00%
Cowdenbeath—3.00%5.00%5.00%3.00%4.00%15.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%
Dunfermline Athletic—1.00%3.00%3.00%8.00%5.00%16.00%20.00%28.00%16.00%
Airdrie United—4.00%4.00%1.00%10.00%12.00%8.00%18.00%18.00%25.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Partick Thistle 66.00% 34.00% — —
Livingston 9.00% 89.00% — 2.00%
Dumbarton 10.00% 81.00% 4.00% 5.00%
Greenock Morton 7.00% 87.00% 3.00% 3.00%
Falkirk 3.00% 86.00% 7.00% 4.00%
Hamilton Academical 2.00% 82.00% 4.00% 12.00%
Raith Rovers 3.00% 73.00% 11.00% 13.00%
Dunfermline Athletic — 56.00% 28.00% 16.00%
Cowdenbeath — 55.00% 25.00% 20.00%
Airdrie United — 57.00% 18.00% 25.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2012-08-11 Dumbarton W 4-149.0 1364 1469 24.41% 32.79% 42.80%-0.49 +13.7 3
2012-08-11 @ Airdrie United L 1-449.0 1469 1364 42.80% 32.79% 24.41%+0.49 -13.7 0
2012-08-11 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-436.2 1289 1354 28.92% 33.73% 37.35%-0.32 -16.2 0
2012-08-11 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-036.2 1354 1289 37.35% 33.73% 28.92%+0.32 +16.2 3
2012-08-11 Falkirk W 3-144.6 1354 1346 39.21% 33.49% 27.30%+0.01 +7.1 3
2012-08-11 @ Partick Thistle L 1-344.6 1346 1354 27.30% 33.49% 39.21%-0.01 -7.1 0
2012-08-11 Hamilton Academical W 2-039.3 1316 1328 36.40% 33.81% 29.78%-0.08 +8.7 3
2012-08-11 @ Raith Rovers L 0-239.3 1328 1316 29.78% 33.81% 36.40%+0.08 -8.7 0
2012-08-11 Livingston D 2-256.0 1273 1339 28.86% 33.72% 37.42%-0.32 +0.2 1
2012-08-11 @ Greenock Morton D 2-256.0 1339 1273 37.42% 33.72% 28.86%+0.32 -0.2 1
2012-08-18 Airdrie United L 0-241.0 1339 1378 32.44% 33.95% 33.61%-0.20 -9.2 1
2012-08-18 @ Livingston W 2-041.0 1378 1339 33.61% 33.95% 32.44%+0.20 +9.2 6
2012-08-18 Cowdenbeath L 0-344.9 1455 1273 61.71% 24.50% 13.79%+0.78 -21.1 0
2012-08-18 @ Dumbarton W 3-044.9 1273 1455 13.79% 24.50% 61.71%-0.78 +21.1 3
2012-08-18 Greenock Morton D 1-150.8 1319 1273 44.45% 32.37% 23.18%+0.18 -0.6 1
2012-08-18 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-150.8 1273 1319 23.18% 32.37% 44.45%-0.18 +0.6 2
2012-08-18 Partick Thistle L 0-146.6 1371 1361 39.35% 33.47% 27.18%+0.02 -5.6 3
2012-08-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-046.6 1361 1371 27.18% 33.47% 39.35%-0.02 +5.6 6
2012-08-18 Raith Rovers L 0-242.4 1339 1325 40.04% 33.36% 26.61%+0.04 -10.7 0
2012-08-18 @ Falkirk W 2-042.4 1325 1339 26.61% 33.36% 40.04%-0.04 +10.6 6
2012-08-25 Dumbarton W 3-041.7 1367 1434 28.74% 33.71% 37.55%-0.32 +14.8 9
2012-08-25 @ Partick Thistle L 0-341.7 1434 1367 37.55% 33.71% 28.74%+0.32 -14.8 0
2012-08-25 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-252.3 1387 1365 41.13% 33.16% 25.71%+0.07 -5.4 6
2012-08-25 @ Airdrie United W 2-152.3 1365 1387 25.71% 33.16% 41.13%-0.07 +5.4 6
2012-08-25 Falkirk L 1-247.6 1274 1328 30.30% 33.86% 35.84%-0.27 -4.4 2
2012-08-25 @ Greenock Morton W 2-147.6 1328 1274 35.84% 33.86% 30.30%+0.27 +4.4 3
2012-08-25 Hamilton Academical W 1-043.0 1294 1318 34.55% 33.92% 31.53%-0.13 +4.8 6
2012-08-25 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-143.0 1318 1294 31.53% 33.92% 34.55%+0.13 -4.8 1
2012-08-25 Livingston D 0-047.1 1336 1329 38.93% 33.53% 27.54%+0.00 -0.3 7
2012-08-25 @ Raith Rovers D 0-047.1 1329 1336 27.54% 33.53% 38.93%+0.00 +0.3 2
2012-09-01 Cowdenbeath L 0-342.4 1382 1299 49.36% 30.72% 19.92%+0.34 -18.0 6
2012-09-01 @ Airdrie United W 3-042.4 1299 1382 19.92% 30.72% 49.36%-0.34 +18.0 9
2012-09-01 Dumbarton W 3-042.4 1269 1419 20.19% 30.89% 48.92%-0.69 +17.9 5
2012-09-01 @ Greenock Morton L 0-342.4 1419 1269 48.92% 30.89% 20.19%+0.69 -17.9 0
2012-09-01 Hamilton Academical W 4-033.8 1382 1314 47.40% 31.44% 21.16%+0.28 +12.6 12
2012-09-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-433.8 1314 1382 21.16% 31.44% 47.40%-0.28 -12.6 1
2012-09-01 Raith Rovers W 3-143.5 1370 1335 42.97% 32.75% 24.28%+0.13 +6.5 9
2012-09-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-343.5 1335 1370 24.28% 32.75% 42.97%-0.13 -6.5 7
2012-09-02 Livingston L 1-250.5 1333 1330 38.49% 33.59% 27.92%-0.01 -5.2 3
2012-09-02 @ Falkirk W 2-150.5 1330 1333 27.92% 33.59% 38.49%+0.01 +5.2 5
2012-09-15 Airdrie United W 2-040.8 1329 1364 33.07% 33.95% 32.98%-0.18 +9.3 10
2012-09-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-240.8 1364 1329 32.98% 33.95% 33.07%+0.18 -9.3 6
2012-09-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-244.5 1401 1377 41.44% 33.09% 25.46%+0.08 -10.9 0
2012-09-15 @ Dumbarton W 2-044.5 1377 1401 25.46% 33.09% 41.44%-0.08 +10.9 12
2012-09-15 Falkirk D 1-150.6 1301 1328 34.27% 33.93% 31.79%-0.14 -0.1 2
2012-09-15 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-150.6 1328 1301 31.79% 33.93% 34.27%+0.14 +0.1 4
2012-09-15 Greenock Morton L 3-459.3 1317 1287 42.20% 32.93% 24.87%+0.11 -5.1 9
2012-09-15 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-359.3 1287 1317 24.87% 32.93% 42.20%-0.11 +5.1 8
2012-09-15 Partick Thistle L 1-248.7 1335 1394 29.69% 33.81% 36.51%-0.29 -4.3 5
2012-09-15 @ Livingston W 2-148.7 1394 1335 36.51% 33.81% 29.69%+0.29 +4.3 15
2012-09-22 Airdrie United D 1-151.1 1328 1354 34.25% 33.93% 31.81%-0.14 -0.1 5
2012-09-22 @ Falkirk D 1-151.1 1354 1328 31.81% 33.93% 34.25%+0.14 +0.1 7
2012-09-22 Cowdenbeath W 2-144.4 1399 1312 49.91% 30.50% 19.59%+0.36 +3.1 18
2012-09-22 @ Partick Thistle L 1-244.4 1312 1399 19.59% 30.50% 49.91%-0.36 -3.1 9
2012-09-22 Hamilton Academical D 3-362.1 1390 1301 50.18% 30.39% 19.43%+0.37 -0.5 1
2012-09-22 @ Dumbarton D 3-362.1 1301 1390 19.43% 30.39% 50.18%-0.37 +0.5 3
2012-09-22 Livingston W 4-034.5 1388 1330 45.97% 31.92% 22.12%+0.23 +13.1 15
2012-09-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-434.5 1330 1388 22.12% 31.92% 45.97%-0.23 -13.1 5
2012-09-22 Raith Rovers W 1-044.1 1292 1338 31.51% 33.92% 34.57%-0.23 +5.1 11
2012-09-22 @ Greenock Morton L 0-144.1 1338 1292 34.57% 33.92% 31.51%+0.23 -5.1 10
2012-09-29 Dumbarton W 5-040.3 1317 1390 28.06% 33.61% 38.32%-0.35 +24.1 8
2012-09-29 @ Livingston L 0-540.3 1390 1317 38.32% 33.61% 28.06%+0.35 -24.1 1
2012-09-29 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-336.0 1302 1401 24.94% 32.95% 42.11%-0.47 -11.1 3
2012-09-29 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-036.0 1401 1302 42.11% 32.95% 24.94%+0.47 +11.1 18
2012-09-29 Falkirk D 1-150.7 1308 1328 35.33% 33.89% 30.78%-0.11 -0.1 10
2012-09-29 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.7 1328 1308 30.78% 33.89% 35.33%+0.11 +0.1 6
2012-09-29 Greenock Morton L 2-357.3 1354 1297 45.94% 31.93% 22.14%+0.23 -5.6 7
2012-09-29 @ Airdrie United W 3-257.3 1297 1354 22.14% 31.93% 45.94%-0.23 +5.6 14
2012-09-29 Partick Thistle D 1-151.9 1333 1402 28.50% 33.67% 37.83%-0.33 +0.2 11
2012-09-29 @ Raith Rovers D 1-151.9 1402 1333 37.83% 33.67% 28.50%+0.33 -0.2 19
2012-10-06 Cowdenbeath D 1-151.1 1342 1308 42.68% 32.82% 24.50%+0.12 -0.5 9
2012-10-06 @ Livingston D 1-151.1 1308 1342 24.50% 32.82% 42.68%-0.12 +0.5 11
2012-10-06 Dumbarton D 2-256.8 1333 1366 33.43% 33.95% 32.62%-0.17 -0.0 12
2012-10-06 @ Raith Rovers D 2-256.8 1366 1333 32.62% 33.95% 33.43%+0.17 +0.0 2
2012-10-06 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-257.6 1328 1412 26.63% 33.36% 40.01%-0.40 +0.3 7
2012-10-06 @ Falkirk D 2-257.6 1412 1328 40.01% 33.36% 26.63%+0.40 -0.3 19
2012-10-06 Hamilton Academical L 0-440.8 1349 1290 46.09% 31.88% 22.03%+0.23 -22.3 7
2012-10-06 @ Airdrie United W 4-040.8 1290 1349 22.03% 31.88% 46.09%-0.23 +22.3 6
2012-10-06 Partick Thistle W 3-148.9 1303 1402 25.01% 32.97% 42.02%-0.46 +9.5 17
2012-10-06 @ Greenock Morton L 1-348.9 1402 1303 42.02% 32.97% 25.01%+0.46 -9.5 19
2012-10-20 Airdrie United W 7-036.4 1392 1326 47.07% 31.56% 21.37%+0.26 +21.5 22
2012-10-20 @ Partick Thistle L 0-736.4 1326 1392 21.37% 31.56% 47.07%-0.26 -21.5 7
2012-10-20 Falkirk L 0-243.5 1366 1328 43.29% 32.67% 24.04%+0.14 -11.2 2
2012-10-20 @ Dumbarton W 2-043.5 1328 1366 24.04% 32.67% 43.29%-0.14 +11.3 10
2012-10-20 Greenock Morton D 2-258.4 1412 1312 51.50% 29.83% 18.67%+0.41 -0.7 20
2012-10-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-258.4 1312 1412 18.67% 29.83% 51.50%-0.41 +0.7 18
2012-10-20 Livingston L 1-249.1 1313 1341 34.03% 33.94% 32.03%-0.15 -4.8 6
2012-10-20 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-149.1 1341 1313 32.03% 33.94% 34.03%+0.15 +4.8 12
2012-10-20 Raith Rovers D 4-462.7 1309 1333 34.59% 33.92% 31.49%-0.13 -0.0 12
2012-10-20 @ Cowdenbeath D 4-462.7 1333 1309 31.49% 33.92% 34.59%+0.13 +0.0 13
2012-10-27 Airdrie United L 3-460.3 1354 1305 44.90% 32.24% 22.86%+0.19 -5.3 2
2012-10-27 @ Dumbarton W 4-360.3 1305 1354 22.86% 32.24% 44.90%-0.19 +5.4 10
2012-10-27 Cowdenbeath W 3-033.3 1411 1309 51.87% 29.67% 18.46%+0.43 +8.5 23
2012-10-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-333.3 1309 1411 18.46% 29.67% 51.87%-0.43 -8.5 12
2012-10-27 Greenock Morton D 2-256.7 1346 1313 42.62% 32.83% 24.54%+0.12 -0.4 13
2012-10-27 @ Livingston D 2-256.7 1313 1346 24.54% 32.83% 42.62%-0.12 +0.4 19
2012-10-27 Partick Thistle D 0-048.3 1339 1414 27.82% 33.58% 38.61%-0.35 +0.3 11
2012-10-27 @ Falkirk D 0-048.3 1414 1339 38.61% 33.58% 27.82%+0.35 -0.3 23
2012-10-27 Raith Rovers L 0-144.1 1308 1333 34.47% 33.93% 31.61%-0.14 -5.1 6
2012-10-27 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-044.1 1333 1308 31.61% 33.93% 34.47%+0.14 +5.1 16
2012-11-09 Livingston L 1-345.9 1310 1345 33.02% 33.95% 33.03%-0.18 -8.1 10
2012-11-09 @ Airdrie United W 3-145.9 1345 1310 33.03% 33.95% 33.02%+0.18 +8.1 16
2012-11-10 Dumbarton L 0-143.2 1300 1349 31.15% 33.91% 34.95%-0.24 -4.8 12
2012-11-10 @ Cowdenbeath W 1-043.2 1349 1300 34.95% 33.91% 31.15%+0.24 +4.8 5
2012-11-10 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-143.7 1413 1419 37.16% 33.75% 29.10%-0.05 +13.5 26
2012-11-10 @ Partick Thistle L 1-543.7 1419 1413 29.10% 33.75% 37.16%+0.05 -13.5 23
2012-11-10 Falkirk W 2-147.6 1338 1340 37.88% 33.67% 28.46%-0.03 +4.2 19
2012-11-10 @ Raith Rovers L 1-247.6 1340 1338 28.46% 33.67% 37.88%+0.03 -4.2 11
2012-11-10 Hamilton Academical L 0-145.3 1313 1303 39.52% 33.44% 27.04%+0.02 -5.6 19
2012-11-10 @ Greenock Morton W 1-045.3 1303 1313 27.04% 33.44% 39.52%-0.02 +5.6 9
2012-11-16 Partick Thistle W 1-047.9 1309 1427 23.02% 32.30% 44.68%-0.55 +6.1 12
2012-11-16 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-147.9 1427 1309 44.68% 32.30% 23.02%+0.55 -6.1 26
2012-11-17 Airdrie United D 1-150.4 1296 1302 37.12% 33.75% 29.13%-0.05 -0.2 13
2012-11-17 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.4 1302 1296 29.13% 33.75% 37.12%+0.05 +0.2 11
2012-11-17 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-345.9 1343 1406 29.18% 33.76% 37.07%-0.31 -7.4 19
2012-11-17 @ Raith Rovers W 3-145.9 1406 1343 37.07% 33.76% 29.18%+0.31 +7.4 26
2012-11-17 Falkirk W 2-146.9 1354 1335 40.60% 33.26% 26.14%+0.05 +4.0 19
2012-11-17 @ Livingston L 1-246.9 1335 1354 26.14% 33.26% 40.60%-0.05 -3.9 11
2012-11-17 Greenock Morton L 1-545.0 1354 1308 44.42% 32.37% 23.21%+0.18 -18.1 5
2012-11-17 @ Dumbarton W 5-145.0 1308 1354 23.21% 32.37% 44.42%-0.18 +18.1 22
2012-11-24 Cowdenbeath W 1-040.8 1326 1295 42.32% 32.90% 24.78%+0.11 +4.0 25
2012-11-24 @ Greenock Morton L 0-140.8 1295 1326 24.78% 32.90% 42.32%-0.11 -4.0 13
2012-11-24 Dumbarton W 4-034.2 1413 1336 48.69% 30.97% 20.33%+0.32 +12.1 29
2012-11-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-434.2 1336 1413 20.33% 30.97% 48.69%-0.32 -12.1 5
2012-11-24 Hamilton Academical W 2-146.6 1331 1315 40.39% 33.29% 26.31%+0.05 +4.0 14
2012-11-24 @ Falkirk L 1-246.6 1315 1331 26.31% 33.29% 40.39%-0.05 -4.0 12
2012-11-24 Livingston W 2-038.1 1421 1357 46.75% 31.66% 21.59%+0.25 +6.8 29
2012-11-24 @ Partick Thistle L 0-238.1 1357 1421 21.59% 31.66% 46.75%-0.25 -6.8 19
2012-11-24 Raith Rovers D 0-046.7 1302 1335 33.37% 33.95% 32.68%-0.17 -0.0 12
2012-11-24 @ Airdrie United D 0-046.7 1335 1302 32.68% 33.95% 33.37%+0.17 +0.0 20
2012-12-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-152.2 1351 1426 27.75% 33.57% 38.68%-0.36 +5.2 22
2012-12-08 @ Livingston L 1-252.2 1426 1351 38.68% 33.57% 27.75%+0.36 -5.2 29
2012-12-08 Greenock Morton D 3-360.9 1335 1330 38.78% 33.55% 27.67%+0.00 -0.2 21
2012-12-08 @ Raith Rovers D 3-360.9 1330 1335 27.67% 33.55% 38.78%+0.00 +0.2 26
2012-12-15 Airdrie United W 2-037.5 1330 1302 41.94% 32.99% 25.07%+0.10 +7.7 29
2012-12-15 @ Greenock Morton L 0-237.5 1302 1330 25.07% 32.99% 41.94%-0.10 -7.6 12
2012-12-15 Cowdenbeath W 2-036.8 1335 1291 44.16% 32.45% 23.40%+0.17 +7.2 17
2012-12-15 @ Falkirk L 0-236.8 1291 1335 23.40% 32.45% 44.16%-0.17 -7.2 13
2012-12-15 Hamilton Academical D 1-153.2 1420 1311 52.81% 29.24% 17.94%+0.46 -1.0 30
2012-12-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-153.2 1311 1420 17.94% 29.24% 52.81%-0.46 +1.0 13
2012-12-15 Raith Rovers W 3-250.3 1427 1335 50.60% 30.21% 19.18%+0.38 +2.9 32
2012-12-15 @ Partick Thistle L 2-350.3 1335 1427 19.18% 30.21% 50.60%-0.38 -2.9 21
2012-12-22 Falkirk L 1-442.7 1295 1343 31.23% 33.91% 34.85%-0.24 -11.0 12
2012-12-22 @ Airdrie United W 4-142.7 1343 1295 34.85% 33.91% 31.23%+0.24 +11.0 20
2012-12-22 Livingston D 1-150.8 1284 1356 28.13% 33.62% 38.25%-0.34 +0.3 14
2012-12-22 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.8 1356 1284 38.25% 33.62% 28.13%+0.34 -0.3 23
2012-12-26 Airdrie United W 3-035.0 1312 1284 41.98% 32.98% 25.04%+0.10 +11.1 16
2012-12-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-335.0 1284 1312 25.04% 32.98% 41.98%-0.10 -11.1 12
2012-12-26 Falkirk L 0-149.0 1419 1354 47.09% 31.55% 21.36%+0.27 -6.3 30
2012-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-049.0 1354 1419 21.36% 31.55% 47.09%-0.27 +6.3 23
2012-12-26 Greenock Morton L 1-254.6 1430 1338 50.60% 30.22% 19.18%+0.38 -6.3 32
2012-12-26 @ Partick Thistle W 2-154.6 1338 1430 19.18% 30.22% 50.60%-0.38 +6.3 32
2012-12-29 Cowdenbeath D 2-256.5 1332 1284 44.66% 32.31% 23.03%+0.19 -0.5 22
2012-12-29 @ Raith Rovers D 2-256.5 1284 1332 23.03% 32.31% 44.66%-0.19 +0.4 15
2012-12-29 Dumbarton L 3-460.2 1360 1323 43.14% 32.71% 24.15%+0.14 -5.2 23
2012-12-29 @ Falkirk W 4-360.2 1323 1360 24.15% 32.71% 43.14%-0.14 +5.2 8
2012-12-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-253.0 1344 1413 28.49% 33.67% 37.84%-0.33 +7.9 35
2012-12-29 @ Greenock Morton L 2-453.0 1413 1344 37.84% 33.67% 28.49%+0.33 -7.9 30
2012-12-29 Partick Thistle D 1-152.2 1273 1424 20.07% 30.81% 49.12%-0.70 +0.8 13
2012-12-29 @ Airdrie United D 1-152.2 1424 1273 49.12% 30.81% 20.07%+0.70 -0.8 33
2013-01-02 Cowdenbeath D 1-150.2 1273 1285 36.42% 33.81% 29.77%-0.08 -0.2 14
2013-01-02 @ Airdrie United D 1-150.2 1285 1273 29.77% 33.81% 36.42%+0.08 +0.2 16
2013-01-02 Dumbarton L 0-340.7 1352 1329 41.33% 33.11% 25.55%+0.08 -15.8 35
2013-01-02 @ Greenock Morton W 3-040.7 1329 1352 25.55% 33.11% 41.33%-0.08 +15.8 11
2013-01-02 Raith Rovers W 1-040.4 1405 1332 48.11% 31.19% 20.70%+0.30 +3.5 33
2013-01-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-140.4 1332 1405 20.70% 31.19% 48.11%-0.30 -3.4 22
2013-01-05 Airdrie United W 2-036.2 1328 1273 45.65% 32.01% 22.34%+0.22 +7.0 25
2013-01-05 @ Raith Rovers L 0-236.2 1273 1328 22.34% 32.01% 45.65%-0.22 -7.0 14
2013-01-05 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-143.9 1344 1408 29.09% 33.75% 37.16%-0.31 -4.5 11
2013-01-05 @ Dumbarton W 1-043.9 1408 1344 37.16% 33.75% 29.09%+0.31 +4.5 36
2013-01-05 Falkirk D 1-151.1 1323 1355 33.49% 33.95% 32.56%-0.17 -0.0 17
2013-01-05 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-151.1 1355 1323 32.56% 33.95% 33.49%+0.17 +0.0 24
2013-01-05 Greenock Morton D 1-150.5 1285 1336 30.79% 33.89% 35.32%-0.25 +0.1 17
2013-01-05 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.5 1336 1285 35.32% 33.89% 30.79%+0.25 -0.1 36
2013-01-05 Partick Thistle D 2-258.2 1356 1423 28.66% 33.70% 37.64%-0.32 +0.2 24
2013-01-05 @ Livingston D 2-258.2 1423 1356 37.64% 33.70% 28.66%+0.32 -0.2 34
2013-01-12 Airdrie United L 1-351.4 1413 1266 57.47% 26.90% 15.63%+0.62 -12.0 36
2013-01-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-151.4 1266 1413 15.63% 26.90% 57.47%-0.62 +12.0 17
2013-01-12 Cowdenbeath W 2-145.4 1323 1285 43.30% 32.67% 24.03%+0.14 +3.7 20
2013-01-12 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-245.4 1285 1323 24.03% 32.67% 43.30%-0.14 -3.7 17
2013-01-12 Greenock Morton L 0-146.3 1355 1336 40.67% 33.24% 26.09%+0.06 -5.7 24
2013-01-12 @ Falkirk W 1-046.3 1336 1355 26.09% 33.24% 40.67%-0.06 +5.7 39
2013-01-12 Partick Thistle W 2-043.8 1340 1423 26.77% 33.39% 39.84%-0.39 +10.6 14
2013-01-12 @ Dumbarton L 0-243.8 1423 1340 39.84% 33.39% 26.77%+0.39 -10.6 34
2013-01-12 Raith Rovers W 2-146.9 1356 1335 40.95% 33.19% 25.86%+0.07 +3.9 27
2013-01-12 @ Livingston L 1-246.9 1335 1356 25.86% 33.19% 40.95%-0.07 -3.9 25
2013-01-19 Dumbarton L 1-247.0 1278 1350 28.06% 33.61% 38.33%-0.35 -4.2 17
2013-01-19 @ Airdrie United W 2-147.0 1350 1278 38.33% 33.61% 28.06%+0.35 +4.2 17
2013-01-19 Falkirk W 4-140.8 1412 1349 46.76% 31.66% 21.58%+0.25 +8.3 37
2013-01-19 @ Partick Thistle L 1-440.8 1349 1412 21.58% 31.66% 46.76%-0.25 -8.3 24
2013-01-19 Hamilton Academical L 0-242.0 1331 1327 38.71% 33.56% 27.73%+0.00 -10.4 25
2013-01-19 @ Raith Rovers W 2-042.0 1327 1331 27.73% 33.56% 38.71%+0.00 +10.4 23
2013-01-19 Livingston W 2-148.6 1342 1360 35.50% 33.88% 30.62%-0.11 +4.4 42
2013-01-19 @ Greenock Morton L 1-248.6 1360 1342 30.62% 33.88% 35.50%+0.11 -4.4 27
2013-01-26 Airdrie United W 4-352.6 1341 1274 47.23% 31.50% 21.27%+0.27 +3.1 27
2013-01-26 @ Falkirk L 3-452.6 1274 1341 21.27% 31.50% 47.23%-0.27 -3.1 17
2013-01-26 Cowdenbeath W 2-142.3 1421 1281 56.53% 27.41% 16.07%+0.59 +2.5 40
2013-01-26 @ Partick Thistle L 1-242.3 1281 1421 16.07% 27.41% 56.53%-0.59 -2.5 17
2013-01-26 Hamilton Academical W 3-144.1 1355 1337 40.54% 33.27% 26.19%+0.05 +6.9 20
2013-01-26 @ Dumbarton L 1-344.1 1337 1355 26.19% 33.27% 40.54%-0.05 -6.9 23
2013-01-26 Livingston L 0-148.2 1401 1355 44.40% 32.38% 23.22%+0.18 -6.1 36
2013-01-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.2 1355 1401 23.22% 32.38% 44.40%-0.18 +6.1 30
2013-01-26 Raith Rovers W 1-041.4 1346 1321 41.61% 33.06% 25.33%+0.09 +4.1 45
2013-01-26 @ Greenock Morton L 0-141.4 1321 1346 25.33% 33.06% 41.61%-0.09 -4.1 25
2013-02-02 Livingston L 3-459.5 1362 1361 38.07% 33.64% 28.28%-0.02 -4.8 20
2013-02-02 @ Dumbarton W 4-359.5 1361 1362 28.28% 33.64% 38.07%+0.02 +4.8 33
2013-02-09 Dumbarton L 2-356.7 1366 1357 39.37% 33.47% 27.17%+0.02 -5.0 33
2013-02-09 @ Livingston W 3-256.7 1357 1366 27.17% 33.47% 39.37%-0.02 +5.0 23
2013-02-09 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-248.4 1330 1395 28.98% 33.73% 37.28%-0.31 -4.3 23
2013-02-09 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-148.4 1395 1330 37.28% 33.73% 28.98%+0.31 +4.3 39
2013-02-09 Falkirk W 4-144.3 1279 1344 28.98% 33.73% 37.28%-0.31 +12.4 20
2013-02-09 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-444.3 1344 1279 37.28% 33.73% 28.98%+0.31 -12.4 27
2013-02-09 Greenock Morton L 0-435.4 1271 1350 27.20% 33.47% 39.33%-0.38 -15.5 17
2013-02-09 @ Airdrie United W 4-035.4 1350 1271 39.33% 33.47% 27.20%+0.38 +15.5 48
2013-02-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-253.3 1291 1399 24.04% 32.67% 43.28%-0.50 +8.7 23
2013-02-12 @ Cowdenbeath L 2-453.3 1399 1291 43.28% 32.67% 24.04%+0.50 -8.7 39
2013-02-16 Cowdenbeath W 3-034.2 1361 1300 46.47% 31.75% 21.77%+0.25 +9.9 36
2013-02-16 @ Livingston L 0-334.2 1300 1361 21.77% 31.75% 46.47%-0.25 -9.9 23
2013-02-16 Dumbarton W 3-254.7 1317 1362 31.63% 33.93% 34.44%-0.23 +4.6 28
2013-02-16 @ Raith Rovers L 2-354.7 1362 1317 34.44% 33.93% 31.63%+0.23 -4.5 23
2013-02-16 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-045.6 1331 1391 29.74% 33.81% 36.45%-0.29 +5.3 30
2013-02-16 @ Falkirk L 0-145.6 1391 1331 36.45% 33.81% 29.74%+0.29 -5.3 39
2013-02-16 Hamilton Academical D 2-255.9 1255 1326 28.31% 33.65% 38.04%-0.34 +0.2 18
2013-02-16 @ Airdrie United D 2-255.9 1326 1255 38.04% 33.65% 28.31%+0.34 -0.2 24
2013-02-16 Partick Thistle D 2-258.4 1366 1423 29.98% 33.83% 36.19%-0.28 +0.1 49
2013-02-16 @ Greenock Morton D 2-258.4 1423 1366 36.19% 33.83% 29.98%+0.28 -0.1 41
2013-02-19 Hamilton Academical W 1-039.6 1423 1326 51.24% 29.94% 18.81%+0.41 +3.1 44
2013-02-19 @ Partick Thistle L 0-139.6 1326 1423 18.81% 29.94% 51.24%-0.41 -3.1 24
2013-02-19 Livingston W 2-041.0 1337 1371 33.15% 33.95% 32.90%-0.18 +9.3 33
2013-02-19 @ Falkirk L 0-241.0 1371 1337 32.90% 33.95% 33.15%+0.18 -9.3 36
2013-02-23 Airdrie United W 1-035.9 1426 1256 60.34% 25.30% 14.36%+0.73 +2.3 47
2013-02-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-135.9 1256 1426 14.36% 25.30% 60.34%-0.73 -2.3 18
2013-02-23 Falkirk L 0-242.8 1357 1346 39.62% 33.43% 26.95%+0.02 -10.6 23
2013-02-23 @ Dumbarton W 2-042.8 1346 1357 26.95% 33.43% 39.62%-0.02 +10.6 36
2013-02-23 Greenock Morton L 1-446.8 1385 1366 40.76% 33.23% 26.01%+0.06 -13.2 39
2013-02-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-146.8 1366 1385 26.01% 33.23% 40.76%-0.06 +13.2 52
2013-02-23 Livingston D 1-151.1 1322 1362 32.44% 33.95% 33.61%-0.20 +0.0 25
2013-02-23 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-151.1 1362 1322 33.61% 33.95% 32.44%+0.20 -0.0 37
2013-02-23 Raith Rovers D 1-150.5 1290 1321 33.61% 33.95% 32.44%-0.16 -0.0 24
2013-02-23 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.5 1321 1290 32.44% 33.95% 33.61%+0.16 +0.0 29
2013-03-02 Airdrie United W 4-137.2 1362 1253 52.65% 29.32% 18.03%+0.45 +7.0 40
2013-03-02 @ Livingston L 1-437.2 1253 1362 18.03% 29.32% 52.65%-0.45 -7.0 18
2013-03-02 Cowdenbeath D 2-256.8 1347 1290 45.86% 31.95% 22.19%+0.22 -0.5 24
2013-03-02 @ Dumbarton D 2-256.8 1290 1347 22.19% 31.95% 45.86%-0.22 +0.5 25
2013-03-02 Partick Thistle L 0-439.0 1372 1428 30.09% 33.84% 36.07%-0.28 -16.6 39
2013-03-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-039.0 1428 1372 36.07% 33.84% 30.09%+0.28 +16.6 50
2013-03-05 Greenock Morton W 2-150.3 1322 1379 30.06% 33.84% 36.10%-0.28 +5.0 28
2013-03-05 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-250.3 1379 1322 36.10% 33.84% 30.06%+0.28 -5.0 52
2013-03-05 Raith Rovers D 1-151.4 1357 1321 42.98% 32.75% 24.27%+0.13 -0.5 37
2013-03-05 @ Falkirk D 1-151.4 1321 1357 24.27% 32.75% 42.98%-0.13 +0.5 30
2013-03-09 Dumbarton W 3-034.7 1445 1346 51.44% 29.86% 18.70%+0.41 +8.6 53
2013-03-09 @ Partick Thistle L 0-334.7 1346 1445 18.70% 29.86% 51.44%-0.41 -8.6 24
2013-03-09 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-360.6 1246 1355 23.93% 32.64% 43.44%-0.51 +0.3 19
2013-03-09 @ Airdrie United D 3-360.6 1355 1246 43.44% 32.64% 23.93%+0.51 -0.3 40
2013-03-09 Falkirk W 2-039.1 1374 1356 40.59% 33.26% 26.15%+0.05 +7.9 55
2013-03-09 @ Greenock Morton L 0-239.1 1356 1374 26.15% 33.26% 40.59%-0.05 -7.9 37
2013-03-09 Hamilton Academical D 1-150.5 1291 1327 32.79% 33.95% 33.26%-0.19 +0.0 26
2013-03-09 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-150.5 1327 1291 33.26% 33.95% 32.79%+0.19 -0.0 29
2013-03-09 Livingston L 0-240.3 1322 1369 31.38% 33.92% 34.70%-0.23 -9.0 30
2013-03-09 @ Raith Rovers W 2-040.3 1369 1322 34.70% 33.92% 31.38%+0.23 +9.0 43
2013-03-16 Airdrie United W 3-249.9 1291 1247 44.15% 32.45% 23.40%+0.17 +3.4 29
2013-03-16 @ Cowdenbeath L 2-349.9 1247 1291 23.40% 32.45% 44.15%-0.17 -3.4 19
2013-03-16 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-151.0 1313 1355 32.01% 33.94% 34.05%-0.21 +0.0 31
2013-03-16 @ Raith Rovers D 1-151.0 1355 1313 34.05% 33.94% 32.01%+0.21 -0.0 41
2013-03-16 Greenock Morton L 0-338.6 1338 1382 31.70% 33.93% 34.37%-0.22 -13.2 24
2013-03-16 @ Dumbarton W 3-038.6 1382 1338 34.37% 33.93% 31.70%+0.22 +13.2 58
2013-03-16 Partick Thistle L 0-238.4 1327 1454 22.25% 31.98% 45.77%-0.58 -6.9 29
2013-03-16 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-038.4 1454 1327 45.77% 31.98% 22.25%+0.58 +6.9 56
2013-03-23 Cowdenbeath W 4-245.0 1395 1294 51.74% 29.73% 18.53%+0.42 +4.5 61
2013-03-23 @ Greenock Morton L 2-445.0 1294 1395 18.53% 29.73% 51.74%-0.42 -4.5 29
2013-03-23 Dumbarton L 3-460.0 1355 1324 42.33% 32.90% 24.77%+0.11 -5.1 41
2013-03-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 4-360.0 1324 1355 24.77% 32.90% 42.33%-0.11 +5.1 27
2013-03-23 Hamilton Academical L 0-242.9 1348 1320 41.93% 32.99% 25.08%+0.10 -11.0 37
2013-03-23 @ Falkirk W 2-042.9 1320 1348 25.08% 32.99% 41.93%-0.10 +11.0 32
2013-03-23 Livingston W 6-139.6 1461 1378 49.36% 30.72% 19.92%+0.34 +12.2 59
2013-03-23 @ Partick Thistle L 1-639.6 1378 1461 19.92% 30.72% 49.36%-0.34 -12.2 43
2013-03-23 Raith Rovers L 1-246.7 1243 1313 28.40% 33.66% 37.94%-0.33 -4.2 19
2013-03-23 @ Airdrie United W 2-146.7 1313 1243 37.94% 33.66% 28.40%+0.33 +4.2 34
2013-03-27 Falkirk L 0-242.6 1350 1337 39.84% 33.39% 26.77%+0.03 -10.6 41
2013-03-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-042.6 1337 1350 26.77% 33.39% 39.84%-0.03 +10.6 40
2013-03-27 Partick Thistle L 0-333.6 1290 1473 17.72% 29.05% 53.22%-0.84 -8.1 29
2013-03-27 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-033.6 1473 1290 53.22% 29.05% 17.72%+0.84 +8.1 62
2013-03-27 Raith Rovers W 4-248.1 1330 1317 39.81% 33.40% 26.80%+0.03 +6.2 30
2013-03-27 @ Dumbarton L 2-448.1 1317 1330 26.80% 33.40% 39.81%-0.03 -6.2 34
2013-03-30 Dumbarton L 2-355.5 1331 1336 37.44% 33.72% 28.84%-0.04 -4.8 32
2013-03-30 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-255.5 1336 1331 28.84% 33.72% 37.44%+0.04 +4.8 33
2013-03-30 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-257.2 1366 1339 41.72% 33.03% 25.24%+0.09 -0.3 44
2013-03-30 @ Livingston D 2-257.2 1339 1366 25.24% 33.03% 41.72%-0.09 +0.3 42
2013-03-30 Falkirk L 0-140.2 1239 1348 23.96% 32.65% 43.40%-0.51 -3.9 19
2013-03-30 @ Airdrie United W 1-040.2 1348 1239 43.40% 32.65% 23.96%+0.51 +3.9 43
2013-03-30 Greenock Morton W 2-151.6 1311 1400 26.09% 33.24% 40.67%-0.42 +5.4 37
2013-03-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-251.6 1400 1311 40.67% 33.24% 26.09%+0.42 -5.4 61
2013-03-30 Partick Thistle L 1-243.7 1281 1481 16.68% 28.06% 55.27%-0.91 -2.6 29
2013-03-30 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-143.7 1481 1281 55.27% 28.06% 16.68%+0.91 +2.6 65
2013-04-02 Dumbarton W 2-148.1 1327 1341 36.07% 33.84% 30.09%-0.09 +4.4 35
2013-04-02 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-248.1 1341 1327 30.09% 33.84% 36.07%+0.09 -4.4 33
2013-04-02 Falkirk L 1-251.5 1365 1352 39.94% 33.37% 26.68%+0.03 -5.3 44
2013-04-02 @ Livingston W 2-151.5 1352 1365 26.68% 33.37% 39.94%-0.03 +5.3 46
2013-04-02 Partick Thistle D 0-050.3 1316 1483 18.85% 29.97% 51.18%-0.77 +1.0 38
2013-04-02 @ Raith Rovers D 0-050.3 1483 1316 51.18% 29.97% 18.85%+0.77 -1.0 66
2013-04-06 Airdrie United W 5-238.6 1394 1235 58.99% 26.07% 14.94%+0.68 +4.9 64
2013-04-06 @ Greenock Morton L 2-538.6 1235 1394 14.94% 26.07% 58.99%-0.68 -4.9 19
2013-04-06 Cowdenbeath W 4-032.7 1357 1279 48.74% 30.95% 20.30%+0.32 +12.1 49
2013-04-06 @ Falkirk L 0-432.7 1279 1357 20.30% 30.95% 48.74%-0.32 -12.1 29
2013-04-06 Hamilton Academical L 2-356.0 1340 1331 39.26% 33.48% 27.26%+0.01 -5.0 42
2013-04-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-256.0 1331 1340 27.26% 33.48% 39.26%-0.01 +5.0 38
2013-04-06 Livingston L 0-339.1 1336 1360 34.68% 33.92% 31.40%-0.13 -14.0 33
2013-04-06 @ Dumbarton W 3-039.1 1360 1336 31.40% 33.92% 34.68%+0.13 +14.0 47
2013-04-09 Airdrie United W 5-031.7 1336 1230 52.32% 29.47% 18.21%+0.44 +13.4 41
2013-04-09 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-531.7 1230 1336 18.21% 29.47% 52.32%-0.44 -13.4 19
2013-04-09 Livingston D 2-256.6 1267 1374 24.12% 32.70% 43.18%-0.50 +0.4 30
2013-04-09 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-256.6 1374 1267 43.18% 32.70% 24.12%+0.50 -0.4 48
2013-04-09 Raith Rovers L 1-250.3 1322 1317 38.75% 33.56% 27.69%+0.00 -5.2 33
2013-04-09 @ Dumbarton W 2-150.3 1317 1322 27.69% 33.56% 38.75%+0.00 +5.2 41
2013-04-10 Greenock Morton W 1-043.4 1482 1399 49.39% 30.71% 19.90%+0.34 +3.3 69
2013-04-10 @ Partick Thistle L 0-143.4 1399 1482 19.90% 30.71% 49.39%-0.34 -3.3 64
2013-04-13 Cowdenbeath L 0-146.5 1322 1267 45.70% 32.00% 22.30%+0.22 -6.2 41
2013-04-13 @ Raith Rovers W 1-046.5 1267 1322 22.30% 32.00% 45.70%-0.22 +6.2 33
2013-04-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-148.2 1396 1335 46.50% 31.74% 21.75%+0.25 -6.3 64
2013-04-13 @ Greenock Morton W 1-048.2 1335 1396 21.75% 31.74% 46.50%-0.25 +6.3 45
2013-04-13 Hamilton Academical L 0-341.3 1373 1349 41.42% 33.10% 25.48%+0.08 -15.8 48
2013-04-13 @ Livingston W 3-041.3 1349 1373 25.48% 33.10% 41.42%-0.08 +15.8 44
2013-04-13 Partick Thistle L 1-240.2 1217 1486 13.01% 23.34% 63.65%-1.22 -1.9 19
2013-04-13 @ Airdrie United W 2-140.2 1486 1217 63.65% 23.34% 13.01%+1.22 +1.9 72
2013-04-16 Dumbarton L 1-349.4 1369 1317 45.27% 32.13% 22.60%+0.21 -10.1 49
2013-04-16 @ Falkirk W 3-149.4 1317 1369 22.60% 32.13% 45.27%-0.21 +10.1 36
2013-04-16 Hamilton Academical D 0-047.7 1358 1365 36.96% 33.77% 29.27%-0.06 -0.2 49
2013-04-16 @ Livingston D 0-047.7 1365 1358 29.27% 33.77% 36.96%+0.06 +0.2 45
2013-04-16 Raith Rovers D 0-051.8 1488 1316 60.46% 25.23% 14.31%+0.73 -1.5 73
2013-04-16 @ Partick Thistle D 0-051.8 1316 1488 14.31% 25.23% 60.46%-0.73 +1.5 42
2013-04-20 Airdrie United W 4-136.6 1327 1215 53.14% 29.09% 17.77%+0.47 +6.9 39
2013-04-20 @ Dumbarton L 1-436.6 1215 1327 17.77% 29.09% 53.14%-0.47 -6.9 19
2013-04-20 Cowdenbeath W 1-039.2 1341 1273 47.35% 31.46% 21.19%+0.27 +3.5 48
2013-04-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-139.2 1273 1341 21.19% 31.46% 47.35%-0.27 -3.5 33
2013-04-20 Greenock Morton L 0-241.8 1357 1390 33.44% 33.95% 32.61%-0.17 -9.4 49
2013-04-20 @ Livingston W 2-041.8 1390 1357 32.61% 33.95% 33.44%+0.17 +9.4 67
2013-04-20 Partick Thistle L 0-239.9 1359 1486 22.17% 31.94% 45.88%-0.59 -6.9 49
2013-04-20 @ Falkirk W 2-039.9 1486 1359 45.88% 31.94% 22.17%+0.59 +6.9 76
2013-04-20 Raith Rovers W 2-037.2 1366 1318 44.68% 32.30% 23.02%+0.19 +7.1 48
2013-04-20 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-237.2 1318 1366 23.02% 32.30% 44.68%-0.19 -7.1 42
2013-04-27 Dumbarton L 2-352.4 1270 1334 29.09% 33.75% 37.17%-0.31 -4.1 33
2013-04-27 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-252.4 1334 1270 37.17% 33.75% 29.09%+0.31 +4.1 42
2013-04-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-366.0 1493 1344 57.69% 26.79% 15.53%+0.63 -0.8 77
2013-04-27 @ Partick Thistle D 3-366.0 1344 1493 15.53% 26.79% 57.69%-0.63 +0.8 49
2013-04-27 Falkirk D 0-046.9 1311 1352 32.11% 33.94% 33.94%-0.21 +0.1 43
2013-04-27 @ Raith Rovers D 0-046.9 1352 1311 33.94% 33.94% 32.11%+0.21 -0.0 50
2013-04-27 Hamilton Academical L 0-244.4 1399 1373 41.75% 33.03% 25.22%+0.09 -11.0 67
2013-04-27 @ Greenock Morton W 2-044.4 1373 1399 25.22% 33.03% 41.75%-0.09 +11.0 51
2013-04-27 Livingston L 0-235.3 1208 1348 21.03% 31.37% 47.60%-0.65 -6.6 19
2013-04-27 @ Airdrie United W 2-035.3 1348 1208 47.60% 31.37% 21.03%+0.65 +6.6 52
2013-05-04 Airdrie United L 1-253.3 1345 1202 57.09% 27.11% 15.80%+0.61 -6.9 49
2013-05-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-153.3 1202 1345 15.80% 27.11% 57.09%-0.61 +6.9 22
2013-05-04 Cowdenbeath L 1-350.6 1384 1266 53.87% 28.75% 17.39%+0.50 -11.4 51
2013-05-04 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-150.6 1266 1384 17.39% 28.75% 53.87%-0.50 +11.4 36
2013-05-04 Greenock Morton W 4-144.6 1352 1388 32.90% 33.95% 33.14%-0.19 +11.4 53
2013-05-04 @ Falkirk L 1-444.6 1388 1352 33.14% 33.95% 32.90%+0.19 -11.5 67
2013-05-04 Partick Thistle D 0-050.8 1338 1492 19.84% 30.66% 49.50%-0.71 +0.9 43
2013-05-04 @ Dumbarton D 0-050.8 1492 1338 49.50% 30.66% 19.84%+0.71 -0.9 78
2013-05-04 Raith Rovers L 2-357.1 1355 1311 44.16% 32.45% 23.40%+0.17 -5.4 52
2013-05-04 @ Livingston W 3-257.1 1311 1355 23.40% 32.45% 44.16%-0.17 +5.4 46

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2012-08-18 13.79% Cowdenbeath 1273 3 @ Dumbarton 1455 0
2 2013-01-12 15.63% Airdrie United 1266 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1413 1
3 2013-05-04 15.80% Airdrie United 1202 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1345 1
4 2013-05-04 17.39% Cowdenbeath 1266 3 @ Hamilton Academical 1384 1
5 2012-12-26 19.18% Greenock Morton 1338 2 @ Partick Thistle 1430 1
6 2012-09-01 19.92% Cowdenbeath 1299 3 @ Airdrie United 1382 0
7 2012-09-01 20.19% @ Greenock Morton 1269 3 Dumbarton 1419 0
8 2012-12-26 21.36% Falkirk 1354 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1419 0
9 2013-04-13 21.75% Dunfermline Athletic 1335 1 @ Greenock Morton 1396 0
10 2012-10-06 22.03% Hamilton Academical 1290 4 @ Airdrie United 1349 0
11 2012-09-29 22.14% Greenock Morton 1297 3 @ Airdrie United 1354 2
12 2013-04-13 22.30% Cowdenbeath 1267 1 @ Raith Rovers 1322 0
13 2013-04-16 22.60% Dumbarton 1317 3 @ Falkirk 1369 1
14 2012-10-27 22.86% Airdrie United 1305 4 @ Dumbarton 1354 3
15 2012-11-16 23.02% @ Hamilton Academical 1309 1 Partick Thistle 1427 0
16 2012-11-17 23.21% Greenock Morton 1308 5 @ Dumbarton 1354 1
17 2013-01-26 23.22% Livingston 1355 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1401 0
18 2013-05-04 23.40% Raith Rovers 1311 3 @ Livingston 1355 2
19 2012-10-20 24.04% Falkirk 1328 2 @ Dumbarton 1366 0
20 2013-02-12 24.04% @ Cowdenbeath 1291 4 Dunfermline Athletic 1399 2
21 2012-12-29 24.15% Dumbarton 1323 4 @ Falkirk 1360 3
22 2012-08-11 24.41% @ Airdrie United 1364 4 Dumbarton 1469 1
23 2013-03-23 24.77% Dumbarton 1324 4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1355 3
24 2012-09-15 24.87% Greenock Morton 1287 4 @ Cowdenbeath 1317 3
25 2012-10-06 25.01% @ Greenock Morton 1303 3 Partick Thistle 1402 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2012-09-29 24.14 @ Livingston 5 1317 28.06% Dumbarton 0 1390 38.32% 33.61%
2 2012-10-06 22.35 Hamilton Academical 4 1290 22.03% @ Airdrie United 0 1349 46.09% 31.88%
3 2012-10-20 21.54 @ Partick Thistle 7 1392 47.07% Airdrie United 0 1326 21.37% 31.56%
4 2012-08-18 21.06 Cowdenbeath 3 1273 13.79% @ Dumbarton 0 1455 61.71% 24.50%
5 2012-11-17 18.14 Greenock Morton 5 1308 23.21% @ Dumbarton 1 1354 44.42% 32.37%
6 2012-09-01 17.99 Cowdenbeath 3 1299 19.92% @ Airdrie United 0 1382 49.36% 30.72%
7 2012-09-01 17.87 @ Greenock Morton 3 1269 20.19% Dumbarton 0 1419 48.92% 30.89%
8 2013-03-02 16.62 Partick Thistle 4 1428 36.07% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1372 30.09% 33.84%
9 2012-08-11 16.17 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1354 37.35% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1289 28.92% 33.73%
10 2013-04-13 15.84 Hamilton Academical 3 1349 25.48% @ Livingston 0 1373 41.42% 33.10%
11 2013-01-02 15.82 Dumbarton 3 1329 25.55% @ Greenock Morton 0 1352 41.33% 33.11%
12 2013-02-09 15.46 Greenock Morton 4 1350 39.33% @ Airdrie United 0 1271 27.20% 33.47%
13 2012-08-25 14.78 @ Partick Thistle 3 1367 28.74% Dumbarton 0 1434 37.55% 33.71%
14 2013-04-06 14.00 Livingston 3 1360 31.40% @ Dumbarton 0 1336 34.68% 33.92%
15 2012-08-11 13.68 @ Airdrie United 4 1364 24.41% Dumbarton 1 1469 42.80% 32.79%
16 2012-11-10 13.53 @ Partick Thistle 5 1413 37.16% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1419 29.10% 33.75%
17 2013-04-09 13.43 @ Hamilton Academical 5 1336 52.32% Airdrie United 0 1230 18.21% 29.47%
18 2013-02-23 13.21 Greenock Morton 4 1366 26.01% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1385 40.76% 33.23%
19 2013-03-16 13.19 Greenock Morton 3 1382 34.37% @ Dumbarton 0 1338 31.70% 33.93%
20 2012-09-22 13.10 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1388 45.97% Livingston 0 1330 22.12% 31.92%
21 2012-09-01 12.60 @ Partick Thistle 4 1382 47.40% Hamilton Academical 0 1314 21.16% 31.44%
22 2013-02-09 12.41 @ Cowdenbeath 4 1279 28.98% Falkirk 1 1344 37.28% 33.73%
23 2013-03-23 12.15 @ Partick Thistle 6 1461 49.36% Livingston 1 1378 19.92% 30.72%
24 2012-11-24 12.14 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1413 48.69% Dumbarton 0 1336 20.33% 30.97%
25 2013-04-06 12.13 @ Falkirk 4 1357 48.74% Cowdenbeath 0 1279 20.30% 30.95%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-04-27 66.0 @ Partick Thistle 3 1493 57.69% Dunfermline Athletic 3 1344 15.53% 26.79%
2 2012-10-20 62.7 @ Cowdenbeath 4 1309 34.59% Raith Rovers 4 1333 31.49% 33.92%
3 2012-09-22 62.1 @ Dumbarton 3 1390 50.18% Hamilton Academical 3 1301 19.43% 30.39%
4 2012-12-08 60.9 @ Raith Rovers 3 1335 38.78% Greenock Morton 3 1330 27.67% 33.55%
5 2013-03-09 60.6 @ Airdrie United 3 1246 23.93% Dunfermline Athletic 3 1355 43.44% 32.64%
6 2012-10-27 60.3 Airdrie United 4 1305 22.86% @ Dumbarton 3 1354 44.90% 32.24%
7 2012-12-29 60.2 Dumbarton 4 1323 24.15% @ Falkirk 3 1360 43.14% 32.71%
8 2013-03-23 60.0 Dumbarton 4 1324 24.77% @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1355 42.33% 32.90%
9 2013-02-02 59.5 Livingston 4 1361 28.28% @ Dumbarton 3 1362 38.07% 33.64%
10 2012-09-15 59.3 Greenock Morton 4 1287 24.87% @ Cowdenbeath 3 1317 42.20% 32.93%
11 2012-10-20 58.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1412 51.50% Greenock Morton 2 1312 18.67% 29.83%
12 2013-02-16 58.4 @ Greenock Morton 2 1366 29.98% Partick Thistle 2 1423 36.19% 33.83%
13 2013-01-05 58.2 @ Livingston 2 1356 28.66% Partick Thistle 2 1423 37.64% 33.70%
14 2012-10-06 57.6 @ Falkirk 2 1328 26.63% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1412 40.01% 33.36%
15 2012-09-29 57.3 Greenock Morton 3 1297 22.14% @ Airdrie United 2 1354 45.94% 31.93%
16 2013-03-30 57.2 @ Livingston 2 1366 41.72% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1339 25.24% 33.03%
17 2013-05-04 57.1 Raith Rovers 3 1311 23.40% @ Livingston 2 1355 44.16% 32.45%
18 2012-10-06 56.8 @ Raith Rovers 2 1333 33.43% Dumbarton 2 1366 32.62% 33.95%
19 2013-03-02 56.8 @ Dumbarton 2 1347 45.86% Cowdenbeath 2 1290 22.19% 31.95%
20 2012-10-27 56.7 @ Livingston 2 1346 42.62% Greenock Morton 2 1313 24.54% 32.83%
21 2013-02-09 56.7 Dumbarton 3 1357 27.17% @ Livingston 2 1366 39.37% 33.47%
22 2013-04-09 56.6 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1267 24.12% Livingston 2 1374 43.18% 32.70%
23 2012-12-29 56.5 @ Raith Rovers 2 1332 44.66% Cowdenbeath 2 1284 23.03% 32.31%
24 2012-08-11 56.0 @ Greenock Morton 2 1273 28.86% Livingston 2 1339 37.42% 33.72%
25 2013-04-06 56.0 Hamilton Academical 3 1331 27.26% @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1340 39.26% 33.48%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-04-09 31.7 @ Hamilton Academical 5 1336 52.32% Airdrie United 0 1230 18.21% 29.47%
2 2013-04-06 32.7 @ Falkirk 4 1357 48.74% Cowdenbeath 0 1279 20.30% 30.95%
3 2012-10-27 33.3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1411 51.87% Cowdenbeath 0 1309 18.46% 29.67%
4 2013-03-27 33.6 Partick Thistle 3 1473 53.22% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1290 17.72% 29.05%
5 2012-09-01 33.8 @ Partick Thistle 4 1382 47.40% Hamilton Academical 0 1314 21.16% 31.44%
6 2012-11-24 34.2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1413 48.69% Dumbarton 0 1336 20.33% 30.97%
7 2013-02-16 34.2 @ Livingston 3 1361 46.47% Cowdenbeath 0 1300 21.77% 31.75%
8 2012-09-22 34.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1388 45.97% Livingston 0 1330 22.12% 31.92%
9 2013-03-09 34.7 @ Partick Thistle 3 1445 51.44% Dumbarton 0 1346 18.70% 29.86%
10 2012-12-26 35.0 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1312 41.98% Airdrie United 0 1284 25.04% 32.98%
11 2013-04-27 35.3 Livingston 2 1348 47.60% @ Airdrie United 0 1208 21.03% 31.37%
12 2013-02-09 35.4 Greenock Morton 4 1350 39.33% @ Airdrie United 0 1271 27.20% 33.47%
13 2013-02-23 35.9 @ Partick Thistle 1 1426 60.34% Airdrie United 0 1256 14.36% 25.30%
14 2012-09-29 36.0 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1401 42.11% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1302 24.94% 32.95%
15 2012-08-11 36.2 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1354 37.35% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1289 28.92% 33.73%
16 2013-01-05 36.2 @ Raith Rovers 2 1328 45.65% Airdrie United 0 1273 22.34% 32.01%
17 2012-10-20 36.4 @ Partick Thistle 7 1392 47.07% Airdrie United 0 1326 21.37% 31.56%
18 2013-04-20 36.6 @ Dumbarton 4 1327 53.14% Airdrie United 1 1215 17.77% 29.09%
19 2012-12-15 36.8 @ Falkirk 2 1335 44.16% Cowdenbeath 0 1291 23.40% 32.45%
20 2013-03-02 37.2 @ Livingston 4 1362 52.65% Airdrie United 1 1253 18.03% 29.32%
21 2013-04-20 37.2 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1366 44.68% Raith Rovers 0 1318 23.02% 32.30%
22 2012-12-15 37.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1330 41.94% Airdrie United 0 1302 25.07% 32.99%
23 2012-11-24 38.1 @ Partick Thistle 2 1421 46.75% Livingston 0 1357 21.59% 31.66%
24 2013-03-16 38.4 Partick Thistle 2 1454 45.77% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1327 22.25% 31.98%
25 2013-03-16 38.6 Greenock Morton 3 1382 34.37% @ Dumbarton 0 1338 31.70% 33.93%