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2013-14 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Dundee

69 pts

Hamilton Academical · via playoff

Relegated

Greenock Morton

26 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Queen of the South

8.68 points above expected

55 points · 46.32 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alloa Athletic

19.52 points below expected

40 points · 59.52 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee Promoted 36 21 6 9 69 54 26 +28 61.87 +7.13
2 Hamilton Academical Promoted 36 19 10 7 67 68 41 +27 59.58 +7.42
3 Falkirk 36 19 9 8 66 59 33 +26 57.48 +8.52
4 Queen of the South 36 16 7 13 55 53 39 +14 46.32 +8.68
5 Dumbarton 36 15 6 15 51 65 64 +1 47.71 +3.29
6 Livingston 36 13 7 16 46 51 56 -5 46.95 -0.95
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 9 16 42 48 61 -13 44.63 -2.63
8 Alloa Athletic 36 11 7 18 40 34 51 -17 59.52 -19.52
9 Cowdenbeath 36 11 7 18 40 50 72 -22 38.42 +1.58
10 Greenock Morton Relegated 36 6 8 22 26 32 71 -39 37.31 -11.31

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Queen of the South 55 46.32 +8.68
2 Falkirk 66 57.48 +8.52
3 Hamilton Academical 67 59.58 +7.42
4 Dundee 69 61.87 +7.13
5 Dumbarton 51 47.71 +3.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Alloa Athletic 40 59.52 -19.52
2 Greenock Morton 26 37.31 -11.31
3 Raith Rovers 42 44.63 -2.63
4 Livingston 46 46.95 -0.95
5 Cowdenbeath 40 38.42 +1.58

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 5 Mar 25 – Apr 19 1 in 51
2 Hamilton Academical 4 Aug 10 – Aug 31 1 in 30
3 Dumbarton 3 Jan 4 – Jan 18 1 in 23
4 Greenock Morton 2 Apr 1 – Apr 5 1 in 17
5 Dundee 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 3 Jan 2 – Jan 18 1 in 136
2 Greenock Morton 7 Nov 16 – Jan 4 1 in 90
3 Raith Rovers 3 Jan 18 – Feb 15 1 in 14
4 Cowdenbeath 4 Nov 9 – Dec 7 1 in 14
5 Livingston 3 Oct 29 – Nov 16 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 10 Aug 17 – Oct 29 1 in 199
2 Falkirk 11 Nov 9 – Feb 1 1 in 53
3 Greenock Morton 5 Jan 11 – Feb 15 1 in 42
4 Hamilton Academical 11 Feb 15 – Apr 19 1 in 41
5 Dumbarton 7 Jan 4 – Feb 22 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 7 Dec 21 – Feb 15 1 in 134
2 Raith Rovers 10 Dec 21 – Mar 1 1 in 95
3 Greenock Morton 10 Aug 17 – Oct 26 1 in 93
4 Hamilton Academical 4 Nov 23 – Dec 21 1 in 9
5 Livingston 5 Aug 10 – Sep 14 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundee 1466 69 +20 10 9.2 +0.8
Hamilton Academical 1435 67 -3 8 8.9 -0.9
Falkirk 1443 66 +33 13 9.6 +3.4
Queen of the South 1393 55 +16 7 7.8 -0.8
Dumbarton 1343 51 +23 9 6.3 +2.7
Livingston 1307 46 -48 4 7.1 -3.1
Raith Rovers 1258 42 -28 3 5.9 -2.9
Cowdenbeath 1275 40 +14 7 4.7 +2.3
Alloa Athletic 1304 40 -35 3 5.9 -2.9
Greenock Morton 1221 26 +7 7 4.0 +3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA COW DUM DUN FAL GM HA LIV QOTS RR
Alloa Athletic —
2-1-1
7.88
0-1-3
7.13
0-1-3
5.55
1-2-1
5.35
4-0-0
7.70
2-0-2
5.50
1-0-3
7.00
0-1-3
7.46
1-1-2
7.10
Cowdenbeath
1-1-2
3.29
 —
1-1-2
4.62
2-0-2
3.07
1-0-3
3.58
2-1-1
5.28
1-1-2
3.36
1-0-3
4.41
0-2-2
4.29
2-1-1
4.73
Dumbarton
3-1-0
4.00
2-1-1
6.46
 —
0-0-4
4.02
2-1-1
4.74
2-0-2
6.44
2-1-1
4.42
2-1-1
5.61
1-0-3
5.70
1-1-2
5.81
Dundee
3-1-0
5.54
2-0-2
8.10
4-0-0
7.09
 —
0-1-3
6.12
3-0-1
7.98
2-2-0
5.71
2-0-2
6.92
3-0-1
7.04
2-2-0
6.98
Falkirk
1-2-1
5.75
3-0-1
7.55
1-1-2
6.34
3-1-0
4.97
 —
2-2-0
7.53
0-1-3
5.51
3-1-0
6.32
3-0-1
6.70
3-1-0
6.86
Greenock Morton
0-0-4
3.44
1-1-2
5.80
2-0-2
4.65
1-0-3
3.18
0-2-2
3.61
 —
0-1-3
3.27
2-1-1
4.63
0-1-3
4.79
0-2-2
4.73
Hamilton Academical
2-0-2
5.59
2-1-1
7.78
1-1-2
6.67
0-2-2
5.37
3-1-0
5.57
3-1-0
7.89
 —
2-2-0
6.62
3-1-0
6.82
3-1-0
6.74
Livingston
3-0-1
4.12
3-0-1
6.67
1-1-2
5.48
2-0-2
4.18
0-1-3
4.76
1-1-2
6.47
0-2-2
4.47
 —
0-2-2
5.52
3-0-1
5.66
Queen of the South
3-1-0
3.68
2-2-0
6.81
3-0-1
5.37
1-0-3
4.06
1-0-3
4.39
3-1-0
6.33
0-1-3
4.28
2-2-0
5.57
 —
1-0-3
5.68
Raith Rovers
2-1-1
4.00
1-1-2
6.36
2-1-1
5.27
0-2-2
4.13
0-1-3
4.24
2-2-0
6.36
0-1-3
4.37
1-0-3
5.42
3-0-1
5.40
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +9.5
Allowed 0.75 -7.6
Differential 0.98 +6.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.61%8.06%3.89%0.83%0.28%27.22%
18.61%11.11%6.67%3.61%1.39%1.39%32.78%
28.06%6.67%2.22%1.39%1.94%0.28%20.56%
33.89%3.61%1.39%2.22%1.11%—12.22%
40.83%1.39%1.94%1.11%——5.28%
5+0.28%1.39%0.28%———1.94%
Total27.22%32.78%20.56%12.22%5.28%1.94%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.90
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 10 10 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%2.78%11.11%——36.11%
113.89%8.33%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%38.89%
211.11%—2.78%2.78%2.78%—19.44%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.11%25.00%11.11%19.44%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.42 -0.47
SD 0.89 1.44 1.78
CV 0.95 1.02 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%13.89%—5.56%2.78%30.56%
18.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%—5.56%30.56%
22.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%5.56%—19.44%
32.78%—2.78%2.78%2.78%—11.11%
42.78%——2.78%——5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total19.44%25.00%22.22%11.11%13.89%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.00 -0.61
SD 1.34 1.59 2.17
CV 0.96 0.79 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%5.56%8.33%——22.22%
1—5.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%—22.22%
22.78%16.67%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
3—8.33%—5.56%——13.89%
4—5.56%2.78%———8.33%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%47.22%19.44%19.44%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.78 +0.03
SD 1.45 1.10 2.02
CV 0.80 0.62 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
116.67%8.33%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
213.89%8.33%————22.22%
311.11%2.78%——2.78%—16.67%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+———————
Total52.78%30.56%11.11%2.78%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.72 +0.78
SD 1.18 0.97 1.61
CV 0.79 1.35 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
18.33%16.67%8.33%2.78%——36.11%
211.11%8.33%————19.44%
32.78%11.11%————13.89%
42.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total36.11%41.67%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.92 +0.72
SD 1.33 0.87 1.75
CV 0.81 0.95 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%22.22%5.56%——36.11%
15.56%16.67%8.33%8.33%—5.56%44.44%
28.33%—2.78%——2.78%13.89%
32.78%———2.78%—5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%22.22%33.33%13.89%2.78%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.97 -1.08
SD 0.85 1.90 2.03
CV 0.96 0.97 —
Max 3 10 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%—2.78%——19.44%
111.11%16.67%2.78%—2.78%—33.33%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
32.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%—16.67%
4—2.78%5.56%2.78%——11.11%
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total33.33%38.89%13.89%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.14 +0.75
SD 1.89 1.15 1.89
CV 1.00 1.01 —
Max 10 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%11.11%13.89%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
15.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%8.33%———19.44%
35.56%—5.56%2.78%——13.89%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total19.44%27.78%36.11%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.42 1.56 -0.14
SD 1.46 1.11 2.00
CV 1.03 0.71 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%2.78%———19.44%
18.33%11.11%13.89%2.78%——36.11%
213.89%5.56%2.78%2.78%——25.00%
38.33%5.56%—2.78%——16.67%
4———2.78%——2.78%
5+———————
Total33.33%36.11%19.44%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.08 +0.39
SD 1.08 1.00 1.46
CV 0.73 0.92 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%8.33%2.78%——30.56%
18.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%——30.56%
2—11.11%—2.78%8.33%—22.22%
3——2.78%5.56%——8.33%
4——5.56%2.78%——8.33%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%22.22%19.44%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.69 -0.36
SD 1.24 1.21 1.31
CV 0.93 0.72 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee 1466 69 61.87 +7.13 83.0% 39 50 56 63 67 74 77
Falkirk 1443 66 57.48 +8.52 87.0% 39 45 52 58 62 71 75
Hamilton Academical 1435 67 59.58 +7.42 81.0% 41 46 54 60 65 72 79
Queen of the South 1393 55 46.32 +8.68 84.0% 27 33 41 46 53 59 61
Dumbarton 1343 51 47.71 +3.29 71.0% 23 35 43 47 53 58 73
Livingston 1307 46 46.95 -0.95 49.0% 22 35 41 47 52 60 67
Alloa Athletic 1304 40 59.52 -19.52 0.0% 41 50 55 59 64 71 77
Cowdenbeath 1275 40 38.42 +1.58 59.0% 18 25 33 38 44 49 54
Raith Rovers 1258 42 44.63 -2.63 40.0% 27 33 40 44 50 57 60
Greenock Morton 1221 26 37.31 -11.31 7.0% 21 23 33 37 42 49 59

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
Slight Edge
46.67%21.11%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
203 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.39 goals
Neutral
-2+0.25+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
29%
Dundee, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.1 * Some Luck: 6.1 to 9.15 * Lucky: 9.15 to 12.19 * Wild Swing: 12.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.25 * Close: 1.25 to 1.87 * Off: 1.87 to 2.49 * Way Off: 2.49 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.61 * A Surprise: 0.61 to 0.98 * Several Surprises: 0.98 to 1.34 * Many Surprises: 1.34 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.85 points
Some Luck
07.6219
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.564
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
87.00%
Falkirk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Alloa Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.61

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 85.51
1.74
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
69%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.50
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.21
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.67
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.111
Well Within Noise
00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee29.00%34.00%14.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Hamilton Academical27.00%17.00%23.00%15.00%6.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%—
Falkirk20.00%12.00%23.00%14.00%19.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%—
Queen of the South2.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%12.00%18.00%13.00%15.00%13.00%8.00%
Dumbarton2.00%3.00%7.00%13.00%13.00%15.00%19.00%13.00%12.00%3.00%
Livingston2.00%6.00%2.00%6.00%20.00%14.00%17.00%18.00%12.00%3.00%
Raith Rovers—2.00%3.00%7.00%8.00%21.00%16.00%18.00%15.00%10.00%
Alloa Athletic18.00%23.00%21.00%22.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%——
Cowdenbeath———1.00%5.00%12.00%12.00%14.00%19.00%37.00%
Greenock Morton——2.00%1.00%1.00%4.00%11.00%16.00%26.00%39.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Dundee 29.00% 58.00% 13.00% —
Hamilton Academical 27.00% 55.00% 18.00% —
Falkirk 20.00% 49.00% 31.00% —
Alloa Athletic 18.00% 66.00% 16.00% —
Dumbarton 2.00% 23.00% 72.00% 3.00%
Livingston 2.00% 14.00% 81.00% 3.00%
Queen of the South 2.00% 19.00% 71.00% 8.00%
Raith Rovers — 12.00% 78.00% 10.00%
Cowdenbeath — 1.00% 62.00% 37.00%
Greenock Morton — 3.00% 58.00% 39.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2013-08-10 Cowdenbeath W 2-035.0 1352 1290 52.31% 22.44% 25.25%+0.55 +10.2 3
2013-08-10 @ Greenock Morton L 0-235.0 1290 1352 25.25% 22.44% 52.31%-0.55 -10.2 0
2013-08-10 Dundee W 4-357.9 1271 1367 31.02% 23.03% 45.95%-0.22 +7.7 3
2013-08-10 @ Queen of the South L 3-457.9 1367 1271 45.95% 23.03% 31.02%+0.22 -7.7 0
2013-08-10 Falkirk D 1-155.5 1329 1344 42.09% 23.21% 34.70%+0.17 -0.3 1
2013-08-10 @ Dumbarton D 1-155.5 1344 1329 34.70% 23.21% 42.09%-0.17 +0.3 1
2013-08-10 Hamilton Academical L 0-143.5 1314 1349 39.31% 23.26% 37.43%+0.08 -7.8 0
2013-08-10 @ Raith Rovers W 1-043.5 1349 1314 37.43% 23.26% 39.31%-0.08 +7.8 3
2013-08-10 Livingston W 1-038.7 1491 1335 62.81% 20.45% 16.74%+1.02 +3.7 3
2013-08-10 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-138.7 1335 1491 16.74% 20.45% 62.81%-1.02 -3.7 0
2013-08-17 Alloa Athletic W 1-050.4 1359 1495 26.24% 22.58% 51.18%-0.42 +9.7 3
2013-08-17 @ Dundee L 0-150.4 1495 1359 51.18% 22.58% 26.24%+0.42 -9.7 3
2013-08-17 Dumbarton W 4-139.1 1357 1328 48.09% 22.88% 29.03%+0.39 +14.1 6
2013-08-17 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-439.1 1328 1357 29.03% 22.88% 48.09%-0.39 -14.1 1
2013-08-17 Greenock Morton W 3-144.2 1344 1362 41.70% 23.22% 35.08%+0.16 +11.6 4
2013-08-17 @ Falkirk L 1-344.2 1362 1344 35.08% 23.22% 41.70%-0.16 -11.6 3
2013-08-17 Queen of the South D 3-364.3 1331 1279 51.14% 22.58% 26.28%+0.51 -0.7 1
2013-08-17 @ Livingston D 3-364.3 1279 1331 26.28% 22.58% 51.14%-0.51 +0.7 4
2013-08-17 Raith Rovers L 3-455.9 1280 1307 40.49% 23.24% 36.27%+0.12 -7.0 0
2013-08-17 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-355.9 1307 1280 36.27% 23.24% 40.49%-0.12 +7.0 3
2013-08-24 Cowdenbeath W 3-137.1 1485 1273 68.08% 18.87% 13.05%+1.30 +4.7 6
2013-08-24 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-337.1 1273 1485 13.05% 18.87% 68.08%-1.30 -4.7 0
2013-08-24 Dundee D 0-051.4 1314 1369 36.43% 23.25% 40.33%-0.02 +0.2 4
2013-08-24 @ Raith Rovers D 0-051.4 1369 1314 40.33% 23.25% 36.43%+0.02 -0.2 4
2013-08-24 Falkirk L 0-337.9 1331 1356 40.69% 23.24% 36.07%+0.12 -21.9 1
2013-08-24 @ Livingston W 3-037.9 1356 1331 36.07% 23.24% 40.69%-0.12 +21.9 7
2013-08-24 Greenock Morton W 3-144.5 1314 1351 39.09% 23.26% 37.65%+0.07 +12.3 4
2013-08-24 @ Dumbarton L 1-344.5 1351 1314 37.65% 23.26% 39.09%-0.07 -12.3 3
2013-08-24 Queen of the South W 2-034.0 1371 1280 55.87% 21.92% 22.20%+0.70 +9.1 9
2013-08-24 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-234.0 1280 1371 22.20% 21.92% 55.87%-0.70 -9.1 4
2013-08-30 Livingston W 3-033.0 1369 1309 52.04% 22.48% 25.48%+0.54 +15.0 7
2013-08-30 @ Dundee L 0-333.0 1309 1369 25.48% 22.48% 52.04%-0.54 -15.0 1
2013-08-31 Alloa Athletic D 0-053.2 1270 1490 18.24% 20.94% 60.81%-0.83 +2.1 5
2013-08-31 @ Queen of the South D 0-053.2 1490 1270 60.81% 20.94% 18.24%+0.83 -2.1 7
2013-08-31 Dumbarton W 3-253.2 1268 1327 36.00% 23.24% 40.76%-0.04 +7.2 3
2013-08-31 @ Cowdenbeath L 2-353.2 1327 1268 40.76% 23.24% 36.00%+0.04 -7.2 4
2013-08-31 Hamilton Academical L 1-251.2 1378 1380 43.87% 23.14% 32.99%+0.24 -8.0 7
2013-08-31 @ Falkirk W 2-151.2 1380 1378 32.99% 23.14% 43.87%-0.24 +8.0 12
2013-08-31 Raith Rovers D 1-155.4 1339 1314 47.55% 22.92% 29.53%+0.37 -0.7 4
2013-08-31 @ Greenock Morton D 1-155.4 1314 1339 29.53% 22.92% 47.55%-0.37 +0.7 5
2013-09-14 Dumbarton L 1-257.3 1488 1319 64.03% 20.12% 15.85%+1.08 -11.1 7
2013-09-14 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-157.3 1319 1488 15.85% 20.12% 64.03%-1.08 +11.1 7
2013-09-14 Falkirk W 1-045.2 1276 1370 31.19% 23.04% 45.77%-0.22 +8.8 6
2013-09-14 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-145.2 1370 1276 45.77% 23.04% 31.19%+0.22 -8.8 7
2013-09-14 Greenock Morton D 2-260.4 1294 1338 38.02% 23.26% 38.71%+0.03 +0.0 2
2013-09-14 @ Livingston D 2-260.4 1338 1294 38.71% 23.26% 38.02%-0.03 -0.0 5
2013-09-14 Hamilton Academical D 0-052.8 1384 1389 43.55% 23.16% 33.29%+0.23 -0.5 8
2013-09-14 @ Dundee D 0-052.8 1389 1384 33.29% 23.16% 43.55%-0.23 +0.5 13
2013-09-14 Raith Rovers L 0-142.6 1272 1315 38.28% 23.26% 38.46%+0.04 -7.6 5
2013-09-14 @ Queen of the South W 1-042.6 1315 1272 38.46% 23.26% 38.28%-0.04 +7.6 8
2013-09-21 Alloa Athletic W 4-255.0 1322 1477 24.21% 22.29% 53.50%-0.51 +14.7 11
2013-09-21 @ Raith Rovers L 2-455.0 1477 1322 53.50% 22.29% 24.21%+0.51 -14.7 7
2013-09-21 Cowdenbeath W 1-037.6 1389 1284 57.33% 21.67% 21.00%+0.76 +4.6 16
2013-09-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-137.6 1284 1389 21.00% 21.67% 57.33%-0.76 -4.6 6
2013-09-21 Dundee W 3-145.0 1361 1383 41.14% 23.23% 35.63%+0.14 +11.8 10
2013-09-21 @ Falkirk L 1-345.0 1383 1361 35.63% 23.23% 41.14%-0.14 -11.8 8
2013-09-21 Livingston L 1-251.0 1331 1294 49.11% 22.79% 28.10%+0.43 -8.8 7
2013-09-21 @ Dumbarton W 2-151.0 1294 1331 28.10% 22.79% 49.11%-0.43 +8.8 5
2013-09-21 Queen of the South L 0-243.2 1338 1265 53.64% 22.27% 24.09%+0.61 -19.0 5
2013-09-21 @ Greenock Morton W 2-043.2 1265 1338 24.09% 22.27% 53.64%-0.61 +19.0 8
2013-09-28 Cowdenbeath W 5-136.8 1303 1280 47.32% 22.94% 29.74%+0.36 +18.6 8
2013-09-28 @ Livingston L 1-536.8 1280 1303 29.74% 22.94% 47.32%-0.36 -18.6 6
2013-09-28 Dumbarton L 1-247.9 1284 1322 38.88% 23.26% 37.85%+0.06 -7.3 8
2013-09-28 @ Queen of the South W 2-147.9 1322 1284 37.85% 23.26% 38.88%-0.06 +7.3 10
2013-09-28 Falkirk D 1-155.9 1337 1373 39.16% 23.26% 37.58%+0.07 -0.1 12
2013-09-28 @ Raith Rovers D 1-155.9 1373 1337 37.58% 23.26% 39.16%-0.07 +0.1 11
2013-09-28 Greenock Morton W 3-141.2 1371 1319 51.15% 22.58% 26.27%+0.51 +9.2 11
2013-09-28 @ Dundee L 1-341.2 1319 1371 26.27% 22.58% 51.15%-0.51 -9.2 5
2013-09-28 Hamilton Academical W 1-042.4 1462 1394 53.13% 22.34% 24.53%+0.59 +5.3 10
2013-09-28 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-142.4 1394 1462 24.53% 22.34% 53.13%-0.59 -5.3 16
2013-10-05 Alloa Athletic L 0-236.5 1310 1468 23.88% 22.23% 53.89%-0.53 -9.8 5
2013-10-05 @ Greenock Morton W 2-036.5 1468 1310 53.89% 22.23% 23.88%+0.53 +9.8 13
2013-10-05 Dundee L 0-236.0 1261 1381 28.12% 22.79% 49.09%-0.34 -11.2 6
2013-10-05 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-036.0 1381 1261 49.09% 22.79% 28.12%+0.34 +11.2 14
2013-10-05 Livingston W 2-035.6 1388 1321 52.92% 22.36% 24.71%+0.58 +10.0 19
2013-10-05 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-235.6 1321 1388 24.71% 22.36% 52.92%-0.58 -10.1 8
2013-10-05 Queen of the South W 2-142.7 1373 1277 56.40% 21.83% 21.77%+0.72 +4.5 14
2013-10-05 @ Falkirk L 1-242.7 1277 1373 21.77% 21.83% 56.40%-0.72 -4.5 8
2013-10-05 Raith Rovers L 2-450.1 1329 1337 43.14% 23.17% 33.68%+0.21 -12.2 10
2013-10-05 @ Dumbarton W 4-250.1 1337 1329 33.68% 23.17% 43.14%-0.21 +12.2 15
2013-10-12 Cowdenbeath D 1-154.5 1272 1250 47.21% 22.95% 29.84%+0.36 -0.7 9
2013-10-12 @ Queen of the South D 1-154.5 1250 1272 29.84% 22.95% 47.21%-0.36 +0.7 7
2013-10-12 Dundee L 1-440.9 1317 1392 33.71% 23.17% 43.12%-0.12 -16.0 10
2013-10-12 @ Dumbarton W 4-140.9 1392 1317 43.12% 23.17% 33.71%+0.12 +16.0 17
2013-10-12 Falkirk D 0-055.2 1477 1377 56.80% 21.76% 21.44%+0.74 -1.7 14
2013-10-12 @ Alloa Athletic D 0-055.2 1377 1477 21.44% 21.76% 56.80%-0.74 +1.7 15
2013-10-12 Hamilton Academical D 1-155.9 1300 1398 30.67% 23.01% 46.32%-0.24 +0.6 6
2013-10-12 @ Greenock Morton D 1-155.9 1398 1300 46.32% 23.01% 30.67%+0.24 -0.6 20
2013-10-19 Alloa Athletic W 3-259.5 1311 1476 23.23% 22.12% 54.65%-0.56 +9.2 11
2013-10-19 @ Livingston L 2-359.5 1476 1311 54.65% 22.12% 23.23%+0.56 -9.2 14
2013-10-19 Dumbarton L 1-252.9 1379 1301 54.29% 22.17% 23.54%+0.63 -9.6 15
2013-10-19 @ Falkirk W 2-152.9 1301 1379 23.54% 22.17% 54.29%-0.63 +9.6 13
2013-10-19 Greenock Morton W 5-139.7 1251 1300 37.17% 23.26% 39.57%+0.00 +23.3 10
2013-10-19 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-539.7 1300 1251 39.57% 23.26% 37.17%+0.00 -23.3 6
2013-10-19 Queen of the South W 2-141.7 1408 1271 60.78% 20.95% 18.27%+0.92 +3.8 20
2013-10-19 @ Dundee L 1-241.7 1271 1408 18.27% 20.95% 60.78%-0.92 -3.8 9
2013-10-19 Raith Rovers D 1-156.7 1398 1349 50.64% 22.64% 26.72%+0.49 -1.0 21
2013-10-19 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-156.7 1349 1398 26.72% 22.64% 50.64%-0.49 +1.0 16
2013-10-26 Cowdenbeath D 0-050.7 1310 1274 49.09% 22.79% 28.12%+0.43 -1.0 14
2013-10-26 @ Dumbarton D 0-050.7 1274 1310 28.12% 22.79% 49.09%-0.43 +1.0 11
2013-10-26 Dundee W 2-151.1 1320 1412 31.60% 23.07% 45.33%-0.20 +8.2 14
2013-10-26 @ Livingston L 1-251.1 1412 1320 45.33% 23.07% 31.60%+0.20 -8.2 20
2013-10-26 Falkirk W 2-038.0 1397 1370 47.87% 22.90% 29.23%+0.38 +11.6 24
2013-10-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-238.0 1370 1397 29.23% 22.90% 47.87%-0.38 -11.6 15
2013-10-26 Greenock Morton W 2-143.3 1350 1277 53.64% 22.27% 24.10%+0.61 +4.9 19
2013-10-26 @ Raith Rovers L 1-243.3 1277 1350 24.10% 22.27% 53.64%-0.61 -4.9 6
2013-10-26 Queen of the South L 0-345.2 1467 1268 66.88% 19.26% 13.86%+1.23 -33.5 14
2013-10-26 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-045.2 1268 1467 13.86% 19.26% 66.88%-1.23 +33.5 12
2013-10-29 Livingston W 1-040.6 1355 1329 47.77% 22.91% 29.33%+0.38 +6.2 22
2013-10-29 @ Raith Rovers L 0-140.6 1329 1355 29.33% 22.91% 47.77%-0.38 -6.2 14
2013-11-09 Alloa Athletic L 0-235.3 1275 1433 23.87% 22.23% 53.90%-0.53 -9.8 11
2013-11-09 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-035.3 1433 1275 53.90% 22.23% 23.87%+0.53 +9.8 17
2013-11-09 Dumbarton W 2-038.6 1272 1309 38.99% 23.26% 37.75%+0.07 +14.2 9
2013-11-09 @ Greenock Morton L 0-238.6 1309 1272 37.75% 23.26% 38.99%-0.07 -14.2 14
2013-11-09 Hamilton Academical L 0-141.0 1301 1408 29.58% 22.93% 47.49%-0.28 -6.2 12
2013-11-09 @ Queen of the South W 1-041.0 1408 1301 47.49% 22.93% 29.58%+0.28 +6.2 27
2013-11-09 Livingston W 4-138.8 1358 1322 48.96% 22.80% 28.23%+0.42 +13.8 18
2013-11-09 @ Falkirk L 1-438.8 1322 1358 28.23% 22.80% 48.96%-0.42 -13.8 14
2013-11-09 Raith Rovers W 2-037.4 1403 1361 49.83% 22.72% 27.45%+0.46 +11.0 23
2013-11-09 @ Dundee L 0-237.4 1361 1403 27.45% 22.72% 49.83%-0.46 -11.0 22
2013-11-16 Dumbarton L 1-346.4 1309 1295 46.05% 23.03% 30.93%+0.32 -14.4 14
2013-11-16 @ Livingston W 3-146.4 1295 1309 30.93% 23.03% 46.05%-0.32 +14.4 17
2013-11-16 Falkirk D 1-157.4 1414 1372 49.88% 22.72% 27.41%+0.46 -0.9 24
2013-11-16 @ Dundee D 1-157.4 1372 1414 27.41% 22.72% 49.88%-0.46 +0.9 19
2013-11-16 Greenock Morton W 2-036.7 1295 1286 45.35% 23.07% 31.58%+0.29 +12.4 15
2013-11-16 @ Queen of the South L 0-236.7 1286 1295 31.58% 23.07% 45.35%-0.29 -12.4 9
2013-11-16 Hamilton Academical L 2-444.5 1265 1415 24.79% 22.38% 52.84%-0.49 -7.8 11
2013-11-16 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-244.5 1415 1265 52.84% 22.38% 24.79%+0.49 +7.8 30
2013-11-16 Raith Rovers W 1-039.9 1443 1350 55.96% 21.91% 22.13%+0.71 +4.8 20
2013-11-16 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-139.9 1350 1443 22.13% 21.91% 55.96%-0.71 -4.8 22
2013-11-23 Cowdenbeath W 4-029.9 1373 1257 58.52% 21.44% 20.04%+0.82 +15.8 22
2013-11-23 @ Falkirk L 0-429.9 1257 1373 20.04% 21.44% 58.52%-0.82 -15.8 11
2013-11-23 Dundee L 0-342.0 1422 1413 45.43% 23.06% 31.51%+0.29 -23.9 30
2013-11-23 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-042.0 1413 1422 31.51% 23.06% 45.43%-0.29 +23.9 27
2013-11-23 Livingston L 1-540.3 1274 1294 41.42% 23.23% 35.35%+0.15 -24.2 9
2013-11-23 @ Greenock Morton W 5-140.3 1294 1274 35.35% 23.23% 41.42%-0.15 +24.2 17
2013-11-23 Queen of the South W 2-144.8 1345 1307 49.31% 22.77% 27.92%+0.44 +5.6 25
2013-11-23 @ Raith Rovers L 1-244.8 1307 1345 27.92% 22.77% 49.31%-0.44 -5.6 15
2013-12-04 Alloa Athletic D 1-156.9 1310 1448 26.02% 22.55% 51.43%-0.43 +1.1 18
2013-12-04 @ Dumbarton D 1-156.9 1448 1310 51.43% 22.55% 26.02%+0.43 -1.1 21
2013-12-07 Alloa Athletic L 0-146.2 1398 1447 37.42% 23.26% 39.32%+0.01 -7.5 30
2013-12-07 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-046.2 1447 1398 39.32% 23.26% 37.42%-0.01 +7.5 24
2013-12-07 Dundee L 1-242.8 1250 1437 21.02% 21.67% 57.30%-0.67 -4.3 9
2013-12-07 @ Greenock Morton W 2-142.8 1437 1250 57.30% 21.67% 21.02%+0.67 +4.3 30
2013-12-07 Livingston L 2-350.8 1242 1318 33.47% 23.16% 43.36%-0.13 -6.1 11
2013-12-07 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-250.8 1318 1242 43.36% 23.16% 33.47%+0.13 +6.1 20
2013-12-07 Queen of the South L 0-144.8 1311 1302 45.47% 23.06% 31.47%+0.29 -8.8 18
2013-12-07 @ Dumbarton W 1-044.8 1302 1311 31.47% 23.06% 45.47%-0.29 +8.8 18
2013-12-07 Raith Rovers W 3-142.4 1388 1351 49.23% 22.78% 27.99%+0.43 +9.7 25
2013-12-07 @ Falkirk L 1-342.4 1351 1388 27.99% 22.78% 49.23%-0.43 -9.7 25
2013-12-14 Cowdenbeath L 1-255.9 1442 1235 67.54% 19.05% 13.42%+1.27 -11.6 30
2013-12-14 @ Dundee W 2-155.9 1235 1442 13.42% 19.05% 67.54%-1.27 +11.6 14
2013-12-14 Dumbarton W 2-144.7 1341 1302 49.44% 22.76% 27.80%+0.44 +5.6 28
2013-12-14 @ Raith Rovers L 1-244.7 1302 1341 27.80% 22.76% 49.44%-0.44 -5.6 18
2013-12-14 Greenock Morton W 2-031.0 1454 1246 67.73% 18.98% 13.29%+1.28 +5.5 27
2013-12-14 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-231.0 1246 1454 13.29% 18.98% 67.73%-1.28 -5.5 9
2013-12-14 Hamilton Academical D 0-051.8 1325 1391 34.89% 23.21% 41.90%-0.08 +0.3 21
2013-12-14 @ Livingston D 0-051.8 1391 1325 41.90% 23.21% 34.89%+0.08 -0.3 31
2013-12-21 Cowdenbeath D 3-364.5 1347 1247 56.77% 21.77% 21.46%+0.74 -0.9 29
2013-12-21 @ Raith Rovers D 3-364.5 1247 1347 21.46% 21.77% 56.77%-0.74 +1.0 15
2013-12-21 Dundee L 0-150.6 1460 1430 48.17% 22.87% 28.95%+0.39 -9.2 27
2013-12-21 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-050.6 1430 1460 28.95% 22.87% 48.17%-0.39 +9.2 33
2013-12-21 Falkirk L 0-234.5 1240 1398 23.87% 22.23% 53.90%-0.53 -9.8 9
2013-12-21 @ Greenock Morton W 2-034.5 1398 1240 53.90% 22.23% 23.87%+0.53 +9.8 28
2013-12-21 Hamilton Academical W 2-150.6 1296 1391 31.22% 23.05% 45.73%-0.21 +8.3 21
2013-12-21 @ Dumbarton L 1-250.6 1391 1296 45.73% 23.05% 31.22%+0.21 -8.3 31
2013-12-21 Livingston D 2-260.4 1310 1325 42.20% 23.21% 34.59%+0.18 -0.2 19
2013-12-21 @ Queen of the South D 2-260.4 1325 1310 34.59% 23.21% 42.20%-0.18 +0.2 22
2013-12-28 Alloa Athletic D 0-054.8 1408 1450 38.23% 23.26% 38.51%+0.04 +0.0 29
2013-12-28 @ Falkirk D 0-054.8 1450 1408 38.51% 23.26% 38.23%-0.04 -0.0 28
2013-12-28 Dumbarton W 3-031.3 1439 1305 60.58% 20.99% 18.42%+0.91 +11.2 36
2013-12-28 @ Dundee L 0-331.3 1305 1439 18.42% 20.99% 60.58%-0.91 -11.2 21
2013-12-28 Greenock Morton W 1-035.6 1382 1230 62.37% 20.56% 17.06%+1.00 +3.8 34
2013-12-28 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-135.6 1230 1382 17.06% 20.56% 62.37%-1.00 -3.8 9
2013-12-28 Queen of the South L 0-237.8 1248 1310 35.47% 23.23% 41.30%-0.06 -13.6 15
2013-12-28 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-037.8 1310 1248 41.30% 23.23% 35.47%+0.06 +13.6 22
2013-12-28 Raith Rovers W 3-036.1 1325 1346 41.33% 23.23% 35.44%+0.15 +19.7 25
2013-12-28 @ Livingston L 0-336.1 1346 1325 35.44% 23.23% 41.33%-0.15 -19.7 29
2014-01-02 Cowdenbeath L 0-151.1 1450 1234 68.39% 18.76% 12.85%+1.31 -12.4 28
2014-01-02 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-051.1 1234 1450 12.85% 18.76% 68.39%-1.31 +12.5 18
2014-01-02 Dundee L 0-237.7 1326 1450 27.56% 22.73% 49.70%-0.36 -11.0 29
2014-01-02 @ Raith Rovers W 2-037.7 1450 1326 49.70% 22.73% 27.56%+0.36 +11.0 39
2014-01-04 Falkirk L 0-143.5 1345 1408 35.32% 23.23% 41.45%-0.06 -7.2 25
2014-01-04 @ Livingston W 1-043.5 1408 1345 41.45% 23.23% 35.32%+0.06 +7.2 32
2014-01-04 Greenock Morton W 2-034.1 1294 1227 52.93% 22.36% 24.71%+0.58 +10.0 24
2014-01-04 @ Dumbarton L 0-234.1 1227 1294 24.71% 22.36% 52.93%-0.58 -10.0 9
2014-01-04 Queen of the South W 3-141.1 1386 1324 52.36% 22.44% 25.20%+0.56 +8.9 37
2014-01-04 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-341.1 1324 1386 25.20% 22.44% 52.36%-0.56 -8.9 22
2014-01-11 Alloa Athletic W 3-149.1 1315 1438 27.70% 22.75% 49.55%-0.36 +15.4 25
2014-01-11 @ Queen of the South L 1-349.1 1438 1315 49.55% 22.75% 27.70%+0.36 -15.4 28
2014-01-11 Dumbarton L 2-447.2 1247 1304 36.22% 23.24% 40.54%-0.03 -10.7 18
2014-01-11 @ Cowdenbeath W 4-247.2 1304 1247 40.54% 23.24% 36.22%+0.03 +10.7 27
2014-01-11 Hamilton Academical D 0-053.6 1415 1395 46.95% 22.97% 30.08%+0.35 -0.8 33
2014-01-11 @ Falkirk D 0-053.6 1395 1415 30.08% 22.97% 46.95%-0.35 +0.8 38
2014-01-11 Livingston L 0-151.1 1461 1338 59.44% 21.25% 19.31%+0.86 -11.0 39
2014-01-11 @ Dundee W 1-051.1 1338 1461 19.31% 21.25% 59.44%-0.86 +11.0 28
2014-01-11 Raith Rovers D 0-050.3 1216 1315 30.66% 23.01% 46.34%-0.24 +0.7 10
2014-01-11 @ Greenock Morton D 0-050.3 1315 1216 46.34% 23.01% 30.66%+0.24 -0.7 30
2014-01-18 Dumbarton L 1-546.4 1423 1314 57.74% 21.59% 20.67%+0.78 -32.0 28
2014-01-18 @ Alloa Athletic W 5-146.4 1314 1423 20.67% 21.59% 57.74%-0.78 +32.0 30
2014-01-18 Falkirk L 0-233.9 1236 1414 21.90% 21.86% 56.24%-0.63 -9.0 18
2014-01-18 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-033.9 1414 1236 56.24% 21.86% 21.90%+0.63 +9.0 36
2014-01-18 Greenock Morton L 0-148.4 1349 1217 60.25% 21.07% 18.68%+0.90 -11.2 28
2014-01-18 @ Livingston W 1-048.4 1217 1349 18.68% 21.07% 60.25%-0.90 +11.2 13
2014-01-18 Raith Rovers W 1-040.6 1330 1314 46.36% 23.01% 30.63%+0.33 +6.4 28
2014-01-18 @ Queen of the South L 0-140.6 1314 1330 30.63% 23.01% 46.36%-0.33 -6.4 30
2014-01-25 Cowdenbeath L 3-462.3 1396 1227 64.01% 20.13% 15.86%+1.08 -10.3 38
2014-01-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-362.3 1227 1396 15.86% 20.13% 64.01%-1.08 +10.3 21
2014-01-25 Dundee W 2-042.9 1423 1450 40.43% 23.25% 36.33%+0.12 +13.8 39
2014-01-25 @ Falkirk L 0-242.9 1450 1423 36.33% 23.25% 40.43%-0.12 -13.8 39
2014-01-29 Queen of the South D 1-154.7 1228 1337 29.48% 22.92% 47.61%-0.28 +0.7 14
2014-01-29 @ Greenock Morton D 1-154.7 1337 1228 47.61% 22.92% 29.48%+0.28 -0.7 29
2014-02-01 Alloa Athletic D 1-158.4 1437 1391 50.32% 22.67% 27.00%+0.48 -1.0 40
2014-02-01 @ Dundee D 1-158.4 1391 1437 27.00% 22.67% 50.32%-0.48 +1.0 29
2014-02-01 Dumbarton D 3-365.6 1385 1346 49.42% 22.76% 27.82%+0.44 -0.6 39
2014-02-01 @ Hamilton Academical D 3-365.6 1346 1385 27.82% 22.76% 49.42%-0.44 +0.6 31
2014-02-01 Greenock Morton D 1-156.7 1437 1229 67.69% 19.00% 13.31%+1.27 -2.4 40
2014-02-01 @ Falkirk D 1-156.7 1229 1437 13.31% 19.00% 67.69%-1.27 +2.4 15
2014-02-01 Queen of the South L 1-250.1 1337 1336 44.45% 23.12% 32.43%+0.26 -8.1 28
2014-02-01 @ Livingston W 2-150.1 1336 1337 32.43% 23.12% 44.45%-0.26 +8.1 32
2014-02-01 Raith Rovers W 1-043.6 1237 1308 34.32% 23.20% 42.48%-0.10 +8.3 24
2014-02-01 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-143.6 1308 1237 42.48% 23.20% 34.32%+0.10 -8.3 30
2014-02-05 Livingston D 2-260.9 1347 1329 46.59% 22.99% 30.42%+0.34 -0.5 32
2014-02-05 @ Dumbarton D 2-260.9 1329 1347 30.42% 22.99% 46.59%-0.34 +0.5 29
2014-02-08 Falkirk W 2-043.2 1344 1435 31.64% 23.07% 45.28%-0.20 +16.4 35
2014-02-08 @ Queen of the South L 0-243.2 1435 1344 45.28% 23.07% 31.64%+0.20 -16.4 40
2014-02-08 Hamilton Academical W 1-042.1 1436 1385 50.92% 22.61% 26.47%+0.50 +5.7 43
2014-02-08 @ Dundee L 0-142.1 1385 1436 26.47% 22.61% 50.92%-0.50 -5.7 39
2014-02-15 Cowdenbeath D 1-154.3 1232 1246 42.25% 23.20% 34.55%+0.18 -0.3 16
2014-02-15 @ Greenock Morton D 1-154.3 1246 1232 34.55% 23.20% 42.25%-0.18 +0.3 25
2014-02-15 Dundee L 0-143.7 1360 1441 32.92% 23.14% 43.94%-0.15 -6.8 35
2014-02-15 @ Queen of the South W 1-043.7 1441 1360 43.94% 23.14% 32.92%+0.15 +6.8 46
2014-02-15 Falkirk W 2-150.9 1346 1418 34.13% 23.19% 42.68%-0.11 +7.8 35
2014-02-15 @ Dumbarton L 1-250.9 1418 1346 42.68% 23.19% 34.13%+0.11 -7.8 40
2014-02-15 Hamilton Academical L 2-447.2 1300 1379 33.12% 23.15% 43.73%-0.14 -10.0 30
2014-02-15 @ Raith Rovers W 4-247.2 1379 1300 43.73% 23.15% 33.12%+0.14 +10.0 42
2014-02-15 Livingston L 0-341.6 1391 1330 52.26% 22.45% 25.29%+0.55 -27.0 29
2014-02-15 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-041.6 1330 1391 25.29% 22.45% 52.26%-0.55 +27.0 32
2014-02-21 Livingston W 2-037.5 1389 1357 48.54% 22.84% 28.61%+0.41 +11.4 45
2014-02-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-237.5 1357 1389 28.61% 22.84% 48.54%-0.41 -11.4 32
2014-02-22 Alloa Athletic L 0-138.9 1231 1365 26.54% 22.62% 50.85%-0.41 -5.7 16
2014-02-22 @ Greenock Morton W 1-038.9 1365 1231 50.85% 22.62% 26.54%+0.41 +5.7 32
2014-02-22 Dundee W 2-045.4 1246 1448 19.73% 21.36% 58.92%-0.75 +20.6 28
2014-02-22 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-245.4 1448 1246 58.92% 21.36% 19.73%+0.75 -20.6 46
2014-02-22 Queen of the South W 1-040.6 1410 1354 51.68% 22.52% 25.80%+0.53 +5.5 43
2014-02-22 @ Falkirk L 0-140.6 1354 1410 25.80% 22.52% 51.68%-0.53 -5.5 35
2014-02-22 Raith Rovers D 3-364.7 1354 1290 52.61% 22.40% 24.98%+0.57 -0.7 36
2014-02-22 @ Dumbarton D 3-364.7 1290 1354 24.98% 22.40% 52.61%-0.57 +0.7 31
2014-02-25 Alloa Athletic D 1-155.4 1290 1370 33.09% 23.15% 43.76%-0.14 +0.4 32
2014-02-25 @ Raith Rovers D 1-155.4 1370 1290 43.76% 23.15% 33.09%+0.14 -0.4 33
2014-03-01 Cowdenbeath W 1-038.0 1345 1267 54.34% 22.17% 23.50%+0.64 +5.1 35
2014-03-01 @ Livingston L 0-138.0 1267 1345 23.50% 22.17% 54.34%-0.64 -5.1 28
2014-03-01 Dumbarton W 3-143.6 1348 1354 43.46% 23.16% 33.38%+0.22 +11.2 38
2014-03-01 @ Queen of the South L 1-343.6 1354 1348 33.38% 23.16% 43.46%-0.22 -11.2 36
2014-03-01 Falkirk L 2-445.7 1291 1416 27.48% 22.72% 49.80%-0.37 -8.5 32
2014-03-01 @ Raith Rovers W 4-245.7 1416 1291 49.80% 22.72% 27.48%+0.37 +8.5 46
2014-03-01 Greenock Morton W 2-030.7 1427 1226 67.14% 19.18% 13.68%+1.24 +5.7 49
2014-03-01 @ Dundee L 0-230.7 1226 1427 13.68% 19.18% 67.14%-1.24 -5.7 16
2014-03-01 Hamilton Academical L 0-338.9 1370 1401 39.91% 23.25% 36.84%+0.10 -21.6 33
2014-03-01 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-038.9 1401 1370 36.84% 23.25% 39.91%-0.10 +21.6 48
2014-03-08 Alloa Athletic D 2-260.2 1262 1348 32.19% 23.10% 44.71%-0.18 +0.4 29
2014-03-08 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-260.2 1348 1262 44.71% 23.10% 32.19%+0.18 -0.4 34
2014-03-08 Hamilton Academical D 1-157.2 1359 1422 35.36% 23.23% 41.42%-0.06 +0.2 39
2014-03-08 @ Queen of the South D 1-157.2 1422 1359 41.42% 23.23% 35.36%+0.06 -0.2 49
2014-03-08 Livingston D 1-157.3 1425 1351 53.76% 22.25% 23.99%+0.61 -1.3 47
2014-03-08 @ Falkirk D 1-157.3 1351 1425 23.99% 22.25% 53.76%-0.61 +1.3 36
2014-03-15 Cowdenbeath W 5-134.8 1342 1262 54.52% 22.14% 23.34%+0.64 +15.1 39
2014-03-15 @ Dumbarton L 1-534.8 1262 1342 23.34% 22.14% 54.52%-0.64 -15.1 29
2014-03-15 Dundee L 0-239.6 1352 1433 32.87% 23.14% 43.99%-0.15 -12.8 36
2014-03-15 @ Livingston W 2-039.6 1433 1352 43.99% 23.14% 32.87%+0.15 +12.8 52
2014-03-15 Falkirk W 3-146.3 1422 1423 44.03% 23.14% 32.83%+0.24 +11.1 52
2014-03-15 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-346.3 1423 1422 32.83% 23.14% 44.03%-0.24 -11.0 47
2014-03-15 Greenock Morton W 2-143.0 1282 1220 52.38% 22.44% 25.19%+0.56 +5.1 35
2014-03-15 @ Raith Rovers L 1-243.0 1220 1282 25.19% 22.44% 52.38%-0.56 -5.1 16
2014-03-15 Queen of the South L 0-145.0 1348 1359 42.61% 23.19% 34.20%+0.19 -8.3 34
2014-03-15 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-045.0 1359 1348 34.20% 23.19% 42.61%-0.19 +8.3 42
2014-03-18 Raith Rovers D 0-052.9 1446 1288 63.02% 20.39% 16.58%+1.03 -2.3 53
2014-03-18 @ Dundee D 0-052.9 1288 1446 16.58% 20.39% 63.02%-1.03 +2.3 36
2014-03-22 Cowdenbeath W 2-141.6 1368 1247 59.12% 21.31% 19.56%+0.84 +4.1 45
2014-03-22 @ Queen of the South L 1-241.6 1247 1368 19.56% 21.31% 59.12%-0.84 -4.1 29
2014-03-22 Dundee L 0-143.5 1357 1444 32.24% 23.11% 44.65%-0.18 -6.7 39
2014-03-22 @ Dumbarton W 1-043.5 1444 1357 44.65% 23.11% 32.24%+0.18 +6.7 56
2014-03-22 Falkirk W 3-039.4 1340 1412 34.03% 23.19% 42.79%-0.11 +22.8 37
2014-03-22 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-339.4 1412 1340 42.79% 23.19% 34.03%+0.11 -22.8 47
2014-03-22 Hamilton Academical L 3-449.1 1215 1433 18.38% 20.98% 60.64%-0.83 -3.5 16
2014-03-22 @ Greenock Morton W 4-349.1 1433 1215 60.64% 20.98% 18.38%+0.83 +3.5 55
2014-03-22 Livingston L 2-448.0 1290 1339 37.27% 23.26% 39.48%+0.01 -10.9 36
2014-03-22 @ Raith Rovers W 4-248.0 1339 1290 39.48% 23.26% 37.27%-0.01 +10.9 39
2014-03-25 Alloa Athletic W 2-038.8 1350 1362 42.51% 23.20% 34.30%+0.19 +13.2 42
2014-03-25 @ Livingston L 0-238.8 1362 1350 34.30% 23.20% 42.51%-0.19 -13.2 37
2014-03-25 Dumbarton W 2-037.1 1389 1351 49.37% 22.77% 27.87%+0.44 +11.1 50
2014-03-25 @ Falkirk L 0-237.1 1351 1389 27.87% 22.77% 49.37%-0.44 -11.1 39
2014-03-25 Greenock Morton W 3-032.7 1243 1211 48.45% 22.85% 28.70%+0.40 +16.6 32
2014-03-25 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-332.7 1211 1243 28.70% 22.85% 48.45%-0.40 -16.6 16
2014-03-25 Queen of the South W 1-041.1 1450 1372 54.31% 22.17% 23.52%+0.64 +5.1 59
2014-03-25 @ Dundee L 0-141.1 1372 1450 23.52% 22.17% 54.31%-0.64 -5.1 45
2014-03-25 Raith Rovers W 3-246.3 1436 1279 62.94% 20.42% 16.65%+1.03 +3.3 58
2014-03-25 @ Hamilton Academical L 2-346.3 1279 1436 16.65% 20.42% 62.94%-1.03 -3.3 36
2014-03-29 Dumbarton L 1-251.3 1363 1340 47.40% 22.93% 29.67%+0.37 -8.5 42
2014-03-29 @ Livingston W 2-151.3 1340 1363 29.67% 22.93% 47.40%-0.37 +8.5 42
2014-03-29 Falkirk L 0-150.5 1455 1401 51.43% 22.55% 26.02%+0.52 -9.7 59
2014-03-29 @ Dundee W 1-050.5 1401 1455 26.02% 22.55% 51.43%-0.52 +9.7 53
2014-03-29 Greenock Morton W 3-028.4 1367 1195 64.36% 20.03% 15.61%+1.10 +9.5 48
2014-03-29 @ Queen of the South L 0-328.4 1195 1367 15.61% 20.03% 64.36%-1.10 -9.5 16
2014-03-29 Hamilton Academical D 1-156.2 1259 1440 21.68% 21.82% 56.50%-0.64 +1.5 33
2014-03-29 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-156.2 1440 1259 56.50% 21.82% 21.68%+0.64 -1.5 59
2014-03-29 Raith Rovers L 0-147.1 1349 1276 53.71% 22.26% 24.03%+0.61 -10.1 37
2014-03-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-047.1 1276 1349 24.03% 22.26% 53.71%-0.61 +10.1 39
2014-04-01 Dumbarton W 3-040.5 1185 1348 23.38% 22.14% 54.48%-0.55 +28.0 19
2014-04-01 @ Greenock Morton L 0-340.5 1348 1185 54.48% 22.14% 23.38%+0.55 -28.0 42
2014-04-05 Alloa Athletic W 4-140.8 1320 1339 41.60% 23.22% 35.18%+0.16 +16.5 45
2014-04-05 @ Dumbarton L 1-440.8 1339 1320 35.18% 23.22% 41.60%-0.16 -16.5 37
2014-04-05 Cowdenbeath W 5-029.7 1410 1261 62.11% 20.63% 17.26%+0.98 +16.8 56
2014-04-05 @ Falkirk L 0-529.7 1261 1410 17.26% 20.63% 62.11%-0.98 -16.9 33
2014-04-05 Dundee D 1-159.8 1438 1446 43.19% 23.17% 33.64%+0.21 -0.4 60
2014-04-05 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-159.8 1446 1438 33.64% 23.17% 43.19%-0.21 +0.4 60
2014-04-05 Livingston W 2-042.5 1213 1355 25.63% 22.50% 51.87%-0.45 +18.5 22
2014-04-05 @ Greenock Morton L 0-242.5 1355 1213 51.87% 22.50% 25.63%+0.45 -18.4 42
2014-04-12 Cowdenbeath W 4-027.9 1446 1244 67.15% 19.18% 13.67%+1.24 +10.8 63
2014-04-12 @ Dundee L 0-427.9 1244 1446 13.67% 19.18% 67.15%-1.24 -10.8 33
2014-04-12 Dumbarton L 1-343.9 1286 1337 37.02% 23.25% 39.73%+0.00 -12.1 39
2014-04-12 @ Raith Rovers W 3-143.9 1337 1286 39.73% 23.25% 37.02%+0.00 +12.1 48
2014-04-12 Falkirk L 1-250.1 1376 1427 37.03% 23.26% 39.72%+0.00 -7.0 48
2014-04-12 @ Queen of the South W 2-150.1 1427 1376 39.72% 23.26% 37.03%+0.00 +7.0 59
2014-04-12 Greenock Morton W 2-033.4 1323 1232 55.77% 21.94% 22.29%+0.70 +9.2 40
2014-04-12 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-233.4 1232 1323 22.29% 21.94% 55.77%-0.70 -9.2 22
2014-04-12 Hamilton Academical D 1-157.1 1336 1438 30.27% 22.98% 46.75%-0.25 +0.7 43
2014-04-12 @ Livingston D 1-157.1 1438 1336 46.75% 22.98% 30.27%+0.25 -0.7 61
2014-04-15 Queen of the South W 3-255.1 1274 1369 31.03% 23.03% 45.93%-0.22 +7.9 42
2014-04-15 @ Raith Rovers L 2-355.1 1369 1274 45.93% 23.03% 31.03%+0.22 -7.9 48
2014-04-19 Alloa Athletic W 2-144.0 1437 1332 57.43% 21.65% 20.92%+0.77 +4.3 64
2014-04-19 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-244.0 1332 1437 20.92% 21.65% 57.43%-0.77 -4.3 40
2014-04-19 Dundee W 1-049.8 1222 1457 17.10% 20.58% 62.32%-0.91 +11.5 25
2014-04-19 @ Greenock Morton L 0-149.8 1457 1222 62.32% 20.58% 17.10%+0.91 -11.5 63
2014-04-19 Livingston W 4-038.0 1233 1337 30.04% 22.96% 47.00%-0.26 +32.2 36
2014-04-19 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-438.0 1337 1233 47.00% 22.96% 30.04%+0.26 -32.2 43
2014-04-19 Queen of the South L 0-338.7 1349 1361 42.49% 23.20% 34.31%+0.19 -22.7 48
2014-04-19 @ Dumbarton W 3-038.7 1361 1349 34.31% 23.20% 42.49%-0.19 +22.7 51
2014-04-19 Raith Rovers W 2-141.6 1434 1281 62.45% 20.54% 17.01%+1.00 +3.6 62
2014-04-19 @ Falkirk L 1-241.6 1281 1434 17.01% 20.54% 62.45%-1.00 -3.6 42
2014-04-26 Cowdenbeath L 1-249.6 1278 1265 45.91% 23.04% 31.05%+0.31 -8.3 42
2014-04-26 @ Raith Rovers W 2-149.6 1265 1278 31.05% 23.04% 45.91%-0.31 +8.3 39
2014-04-26 Dundee L 0-335.4 1327 1445 28.30% 22.81% 48.89%-0.33 -16.4 40
2014-04-26 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-035.4 1445 1327 48.89% 22.81% 28.30%+0.33 +16.4 66
2014-04-26 Falkirk D 1-156.0 1234 1438 19.58% 21.32% 59.10%-0.75 +1.7 26
2014-04-26 @ Greenock Morton D 1-156.0 1438 1234 59.10% 21.32% 19.58%+0.75 -1.7 63
2014-04-26 Hamilton Academical W 4-146.2 1326 1442 28.61% 22.84% 48.55%-0.32 +21.3 51
2014-04-26 @ Dumbarton L 1-446.2 1442 1326 48.55% 22.84% 28.61%+0.32 -21.3 64
2014-04-26 Livingston W 2-034.9 1384 1305 54.40% 22.16% 23.44%+0.64 +9.6 54
2014-04-26 @ Queen of the South L 0-234.9 1305 1384 23.44% 22.16% 54.40%-0.64 -9.6 43
2014-05-03 Alloa Athletic W 3-139.5 1436 1311 59.56% 21.22% 19.22%+0.86 +6.9 66
2014-05-03 @ Falkirk L 1-339.5 1311 1436 19.22% 21.22% 59.56%-0.86 -6.9 40
2014-05-03 Dumbarton W 2-144.6 1462 1347 58.40% 21.46% 20.14%+0.81 +4.2 69
2014-05-03 @ Dundee L 1-244.6 1347 1462 20.14% 21.46% 58.40%-0.81 -4.2 51
2014-05-03 Greenock Morton W 10-231.7 1420 1236 65.55% 19.68% 14.77%+1.16 +15.1 67
2014-05-03 @ Hamilton Academical L 2-1031.7 1236 1420 14.77% 19.68% 65.55%-1.16 -15.1 26
2014-05-03 Queen of the South D 1-155.6 1274 1394 28.09% 22.79% 49.13%-0.34 +0.9 40
2014-05-03 @ Cowdenbeath D 1-155.6 1394 1274 49.13% 22.79% 28.09%+0.34 -0.9 55
2014-05-03 Raith Rovers W 2-035.9 1295 1270 47.66% 22.91% 29.43%+0.37 +11.7 46
2014-05-03 @ Livingston L 0-235.9 1270 1295 29.43% 22.91% 47.66%-0.37 -11.7 42

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-01-02 12.85% Cowdenbeath 1234 1 @ Alloa Athletic 1450 0
2 2013-12-14 13.42% Cowdenbeath 1235 2 @ Dundee 1442 1
3 2013-10-26 13.86% Queen of the South 1268 3 @ Alloa Athletic 1467 0
4 2013-09-14 15.85% Dumbarton 1319 2 @ Alloa Athletic 1488 1
5 2014-01-25 15.86% Cowdenbeath 1227 4 @ Hamilton Academical 1396 3
6 2014-04-19 17.10% @ Greenock Morton 1222 1 Dundee 1457 0
7 2014-01-18 18.68% Greenock Morton 1217 1 @ Livingston 1349 0
8 2014-01-11 19.31% Livingston 1338 1 @ Dundee 1461 0
9 2014-02-22 19.73% @ Cowdenbeath 1246 2 Dundee 1448 0
10 2014-01-18 20.67% Dumbarton 1314 5 @ Alloa Athletic 1423 1
11 2013-10-19 23.23% @ Livingston 1311 3 Alloa Athletic 1476 2
12 2014-04-01 23.38% @ Greenock Morton 1185 3 Dumbarton 1348 0
13 2013-10-19 23.54% Dumbarton 1301 2 @ Falkirk 1379 1
14 2014-03-29 24.03% Raith Rovers 1276 1 @ Alloa Athletic 1349 0
15 2013-09-21 24.09% Queen of the South 1265 2 @ Greenock Morton 1338 0
16 2013-09-21 24.21% @ Raith Rovers 1322 4 Alloa Athletic 1477 2
17 2014-02-15 25.29% Livingston 1330 3 @ Alloa Athletic 1391 0
18 2014-04-05 25.63% @ Greenock Morton 1213 2 Livingston 1355 0
19 2014-03-29 26.02% Falkirk 1401 1 @ Dundee 1455 0
20 2013-08-17 26.24% @ Dundee 1359 1 Alloa Athletic 1495 0
21 2014-01-11 27.70% @ Queen of the South 1315 3 Alloa Athletic 1438 1
22 2013-09-21 28.10% Livingston 1294 2 @ Dumbarton 1331 1
23 2014-04-26 28.61% @ Dumbarton 1326 4 Hamilton Academical 1442 1
24 2013-12-21 28.95% Dundee 1430 1 @ Alloa Athletic 1460 0
25 2014-03-29 29.67% Dumbarton 1340 2 @ Livingston 1363 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2013-10-26 33.47 Queen of the South 3 1268 13.86% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1467 66.88% 19.26%
2 2014-04-19 32.18 @ Cowdenbeath 4 1233 30.04% Livingston 0 1337 47.00% 22.96%
3 2014-01-18 32.04 Dumbarton 5 1314 20.67% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1423 57.74% 21.59%
4 2014-04-01 27.96 @ Greenock Morton 3 1185 23.38% Dumbarton 0 1348 54.48% 22.14%
5 2014-02-15 26.96 Livingston 3 1330 25.29% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1391 52.26% 22.45%
6 2013-11-23 24.19 Livingston 5 1294 35.35% @ Greenock Morton 1 1274 41.42% 23.23%
7 2013-11-23 23.94 Dundee 3 1413 31.51% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1422 45.43% 23.06%
8 2013-10-19 23.34 @ Cowdenbeath 5 1251 37.17% Greenock Morton 1 1300 39.57% 23.26%
9 2014-03-22 22.81 @ Alloa Athletic 3 1340 34.03% Falkirk 0 1412 42.79% 23.19%
10 2014-04-19 22.68 Queen of the South 3 1361 34.31% @ Dumbarton 0 1349 42.49% 23.20%
11 2013-08-24 21.91 Falkirk 3 1356 36.07% @ Livingston 0 1331 40.69% 23.24%
12 2014-03-01 21.58 Hamilton Academical 3 1401 36.84% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1370 39.91% 23.25%
13 2014-04-26 21.35 @ Dumbarton 4 1326 28.61% Hamilton Academical 1 1442 48.55% 22.84%
14 2014-02-22 20.63 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1246 19.73% Dundee 0 1448 58.92% 21.36%
15 2013-12-28 19.68 @ Livingston 3 1325 41.33% Raith Rovers 0 1346 35.44% 23.23%
16 2013-09-21 19.00 Queen of the South 2 1265 24.09% @ Greenock Morton 0 1338 53.64% 22.27%
17 2013-09-28 18.61 @ Livingston 5 1303 47.32% Cowdenbeath 1 1280 29.74% 22.94%
18 2014-04-05 18.45 @ Greenock Morton 2 1213 25.63% Livingston 0 1355 51.87% 22.50%
19 2014-04-05 16.85 @ Falkirk 5 1410 62.11% Cowdenbeath 0 1261 17.26% 20.63%
20 2014-03-25 16.59 @ Cowdenbeath 3 1243 48.45% Greenock Morton 0 1211 28.70% 22.85%
21 2014-04-05 16.50 @ Dumbarton 4 1320 41.60% Alloa Athletic 1 1339 35.18% 23.22%
22 2014-02-08 16.45 @ Queen of the South 2 1344 31.64% Falkirk 0 1435 45.28% 23.07%
23 2014-04-26 16.40 Dundee 3 1445 48.89% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1327 28.30% 22.81%
24 2013-10-12 15.95 Dundee 4 1392 43.12% @ Dumbarton 1 1317 33.71% 23.17%
25 2013-11-23 15.77 @ Falkirk 4 1373 58.52% Cowdenbeath 0 1257 20.04% 21.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-02-01 65.6 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1385 49.42% Dumbarton 3 1346 27.82% 22.76%
2 2014-02-22 64.7 @ Dumbarton 3 1354 52.61% Raith Rovers 3 1290 24.98% 22.40%
3 2013-12-21 64.5 @ Raith Rovers 3 1347 56.77% Cowdenbeath 3 1247 21.46% 21.77%
4 2013-08-17 64.3 @ Livingston 3 1331 51.14% Queen of the South 3 1279 26.28% 22.58%
5 2014-01-25 62.3 Cowdenbeath 4 1227 15.86% @ Hamilton Academical 3 1396 64.01% 20.13%
6 2014-02-05 60.9 @ Dumbarton 2 1347 46.59% Livingston 2 1329 30.42% 22.99%
7 2013-09-14 60.4 @ Livingston 2 1294 38.02% Greenock Morton 2 1338 38.71% 23.26%
8 2013-12-21 60.4 @ Queen of the South 2 1310 42.20% Livingston 2 1325 34.59% 23.21%
9 2014-03-08 60.2 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1262 32.19% Alloa Athletic 2 1348 44.71% 23.10%
10 2014-04-05 59.8 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1438 43.19% Dundee 1 1446 33.64% 23.17%
11 2013-10-19 59.5 @ Livingston 3 1311 23.23% Alloa Athletic 2 1476 54.65% 22.12%
12 2014-02-01 58.4 @ Dundee 1 1437 50.32% Alloa Athletic 1 1391 27.00% 22.67%
13 2013-08-10 57.9 @ Queen of the South 4 1271 31.02% Dundee 3 1367 45.95% 23.03%
14 2013-11-16 57.4 @ Dundee 1 1414 49.88% Falkirk 1 1372 27.41% 22.72%
15 2013-09-14 57.3 Dumbarton 2 1319 15.85% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1488 64.03% 20.12%
16 2014-03-08 57.3 @ Falkirk 1 1425 53.76% Livingston 1 1351 23.99% 22.25%
17 2014-03-08 57.2 @ Queen of the South 1 1359 35.36% Hamilton Academical 1 1422 41.42% 23.23%
18 2014-04-12 57.1 @ Livingston 1 1336 30.27% Hamilton Academical 1 1438 46.75% 22.98%
19 2013-12-04 56.9 @ Dumbarton 1 1310 26.02% Alloa Athletic 1 1448 51.43% 22.55%
20 2013-10-19 56.7 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1398 50.64% Raith Rovers 1 1349 26.72% 22.64%
21 2014-02-01 56.7 @ Falkirk 1 1437 67.69% Greenock Morton 1 1229 13.31% 19.00%
22 2014-03-29 56.2 @ Cowdenbeath 1 1259 21.68% Hamilton Academical 1 1440 56.50% 21.82%
23 2014-04-26 56.0 @ Greenock Morton 1 1234 19.58% Falkirk 1 1438 59.10% 21.32%
24 2013-08-17 55.9 Raith Rovers 4 1307 36.27% @ Cowdenbeath 3 1280 40.49% 23.24%
25 2013-09-28 55.9 @ Raith Rovers 1 1337 39.16% Falkirk 1 1373 37.58% 23.26%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-04-12 27.9 @ Dundee 4 1446 67.15% Cowdenbeath 0 1244 13.67% 19.18%
2 2014-03-29 28.4 @ Queen of the South 3 1367 64.36% Greenock Morton 0 1195 15.61% 20.03%
3 2014-04-05 29.7 @ Falkirk 5 1410 62.11% Cowdenbeath 0 1261 17.26% 20.63%
4 2013-11-23 29.9 @ Falkirk 4 1373 58.52% Cowdenbeath 0 1257 20.04% 21.44%
5 2014-03-01 30.7 @ Dundee 2 1427 67.14% Greenock Morton 0 1226 13.68% 19.18%
6 2013-12-14 31.0 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1454 67.73% Greenock Morton 0 1246 13.29% 18.98%
7 2013-12-28 31.3 @ Dundee 3 1439 60.58% Dumbarton 0 1305 18.42% 20.99%
8 2014-05-03 31.7 @ Hamilton Academical 10 1420 65.55% Greenock Morton 2 1236 14.77% 19.68%
9 2014-03-25 32.7 @ Cowdenbeath 3 1243 48.45% Greenock Morton 0 1211 28.70% 22.85%
10 2013-08-30 33.0 @ Dundee 3 1369 52.04% Livingston 0 1309 25.48% 22.48%
11 2014-04-12 33.4 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1323 55.77% Greenock Morton 0 1232 22.29% 21.94%
12 2014-01-18 33.9 Falkirk 2 1414 56.24% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1236 21.90% 21.86%
13 2013-08-24 34.0 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1371 55.87% Queen of the South 0 1280 22.20% 21.92%
14 2014-01-04 34.1 @ Dumbarton 2 1294 52.93% Greenock Morton 0 1227 24.71% 22.36%
15 2013-12-21 34.5 Falkirk 2 1398 53.90% @ Greenock Morton 0 1240 23.87% 22.23%
16 2014-03-15 34.8 @ Dumbarton 5 1342 54.52% Cowdenbeath 1 1262 23.34% 22.14%
17 2014-04-26 34.9 @ Queen of the South 2 1384 54.40% Livingston 0 1305 23.44% 22.16%
18 2013-08-10 35.0 @ Greenock Morton 2 1352 52.31% Cowdenbeath 0 1290 25.25% 22.44%
19 2013-11-09 35.3 Alloa Athletic 2 1433 53.90% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1275 23.87% 22.23%
20 2014-04-26 35.4 Dundee 3 1445 48.89% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1327 28.30% 22.81%
21 2013-10-05 35.6 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1388 52.92% Livingston 0 1321 24.71% 22.36%
22 2013-12-28 35.6 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1382 62.37% Greenock Morton 0 1230 17.06% 20.56%
23 2014-05-03 35.9 @ Livingston 2 1295 47.66% Raith Rovers 0 1270 29.43% 22.91%
24 2013-10-05 36.0 Dundee 2 1381 49.09% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1261 28.12% 22.79%
25 2013-12-28 36.1 @ Livingston 3 1325 41.33% Raith Rovers 0 1346 35.44% 23.23%