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2014-15 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Heart of Midlothian

91 pts

Relegated

Cowdenbeath

25 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Heart of Midlothian

16.06 points above expected

91 points · 74.94 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alloa Athletic

10.02 points below expected

27 points · 37.02 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian Promoted 36 29 4 3 91 96 26 +70 74.94 +16.06
2 Hibernian 36 21 7 8 70 70 32 +38 61.80 +8.20
3 Rangers 36 19 10 7 67 69 39 +30 76.88 -9.88
4 Queen of the South 36 17 9 10 60 58 41 +17 57.11 +2.89
5 Falkirk 36 14 11 11 53 48 48 0 54.28 -1.28
6 Raith Rovers 36 12 7 17 43 42 65 -23 36.99 +6.01
7 Dumbarton 36 9 7 20 34 36 79 -43 37.42 -3.42
8 Livingston* 36 8 8 20 27 41 53 -12 34.42 -7.42
9 Alloa Athletic 36 6 9 21 27 34 56 -22 37.02 -10.02
10 Cowdenbeath Relegated 36 7 4 25 25 31 86 -55 30.57 -5.57

* Point deductions: Livingston (-5 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian 91 74.94 +16.06
2 Hibernian 70 61.80 +8.20
3 Raith Rovers 43 36.99 +6.01
4 Queen of the South 60 57.11 +2.89
5 Falkirk 53 54.28 -1.28

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Alloa Athletic 27 37.02 -10.02
2 Rangers 67 76.88 -9.88
3 Livingston 27 34.42 -7.42
4 Cowdenbeath 25 30.57 -5.57
5 Dumbarton 34 37.42 -3.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 3 Dec 27 – Jan 17 1 in 37
2 Queen of the South 3 Apr 4 – Apr 12 1 in 34
3 Heart of Midlothian 9 Jan 31 – Mar 28 1 in 26
4 Falkirk 4 Nov 22 – Dec 20 1 in 21
5 Cowdenbeath 2 Apr 4 – Apr 8 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 5 Apr 4 – Apr 25 1 in 52
2 Cowdenbeath 5 Aug 16 – Sep 20 1 in 37
3 Dumbarton 5 Apr 4 – Apr 25 1 in 21
4 Alloa Athletic 4 Sep 27 – Oct 18 1 in 19
5 Hibernian 3 Aug 17 – Aug 30 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Heart of Midlothian 20 Aug 10 – Jan 10 1 in 260
2 Raith Rovers 6 Dec 27 – Feb 14 1 in 98
3 Hibernian 13 Dec 13 – Mar 14 1 in 84
4 Falkirk 9 Jan 3 – Mar 14 1 in 64
5 Dumbarton 6 Aug 30 – Oct 11 1 in 41

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rangers 5 Feb 27 – Mar 17 1 in 304
2 Livingston 9 Sep 20 – Nov 22 1 in 37
3 Alloa Athletic 12 Nov 15 – Feb 14 1 in 21
4 Dumbarton 8 Jan 3 – Feb 28 1 in 13
5 Falkirk 4 Aug 30 – Sep 27 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Heart of Midlothian 1595 91 -13 10 11.1 -1.1
Hibernian 1529 70 +50 15 9.5 +5.5
Rangers 1530 67 +11 9 9.9 -0.9
Queen of the South 1430 60 +26 10 8.9 +1.1
Falkirk 1376 53 -27 4 6.8 -2.8
Raith Rovers 1239 43 -64 1 6.1 -5.1
Dumbarton 1184 34 -29 1 4.2 -3.2
Livingston 1295 32 +47 10 4.9 +5.1
Alloa Athletic 1247 27 +29 7 4.9 +2.1
Cowdenbeath 1158 25 +21 6 4.6 +1.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA COW DUM FAL HOM HIB LIV QOTS RR RAN
Alloa Athletic —
3-0-1
6.17
1-0-3
5.64
0-0-4
3.60
0-0-4
1.91
1-0-3
3.12
1-2-1
5.33
0-2-2
3.32
0-2-2
5.33
0-3-1
1.83
Cowdenbeath
1-0-3
5.02
 —
2-1-1
4.46
0-1-3
3.06
0-0-4
1.68
0-0-4
2.61
1-1-2
4.82
2-0-2
2.67
1-0-3
4.64
0-1-3
1.46
Dumbarton
3-0-1
5.54
1-1-2
6.74
 —
1-2-1
3.56
0-1-3
2.35
0-1-3
3.12
3-0-1
5.45
0-1-3
3.45
1-1-2
5.83
0-0-4
1.95
Falkirk
4-0-0
7.62
3-1-0
8.20
1-2-1
7.66
 —
1-0-3
3.48
2-1-1
4.72
2-1-1
7.53
0-2-2
5.32
1-2-1
7.54
0-2-2
3.21
Heart of Midlothian
4-0-0
9.45
4-0-0
9.71
3-1-0
8.96
3-0-1
7.75
 —
1-2-1
7.25
4-0-0
9.05
4-0-0
7.79
4-0-0
8.93
2-1-1
5.25
Hibernian
3-0-1
8.15
4-0-0
8.68
3-1-0
8.14
1-1-2
6.47
1-2-1
3.96
 —
4-0-0
7.90
1-1-2
6.04
1-2-1
8.13
3-0-1
3.96
Livingston
1-2-1
5.85
2-1-1
6.37
1-0-3
5.73
1-1-2
3.69
0-0-4
2.26
0-0-4
3.35
 —
1-2-1
3.60
2-0-2
5.65
0-2-2
2.06
Queen of the South
2-2-0
7.92
2-0-2
8.61
3-1-0
7.80
2-2-0
5.86
0-0-4
3.44
2-1-1
5.16
1-2-1
7.62
 —
3-0-1
7.58
2-1-1
3.27
Raith Rovers
2-2-0
5.86
3-0-1
6.56
2-1-1
5.35
1-2-1
3.68
0-0-4
2.38
1-2-1
3.11
2-0-2
5.53
1-0-3
3.64
 —
0-0-4
2.11
Rangers
1-3-0
9.53
3-1-0
9.96
4-0-0
9.39
2-2-0
8.03
1-1-2
5.96
1-0-3
7.27
2-2-0
9.27
1-1-2
7.97
4-0-0
9.22
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.94 +10.5
Allowed 0.70 -9.6
Differential 0.88 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%5.00%4.44%2.78%1.39%27.50%
18.33%9.44%8.06%3.61%1.94%1.67%33.06%
25.00%8.06%5.00%1.39%0.28%—19.72%
34.44%3.61%1.39%1.11%0.28%0.28%11.11%
42.78%1.94%0.28%0.28%——5.28%
5+1.39%1.67%—0.28%——3.33%
Total27.50%33.06%19.72%11.11%5.28%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.22
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%8.33%2.78%2.78%—41.67%
12.78%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—30.56%
22.78%2.78%8.33%5.56%——19.44%
38.33%—————8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%36.11%22.22%13.89%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.56 -0.61
SD 0.98 1.21 1.64
CV 1.04 0.78 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%8.33%8.33%—11.11%44.44%
12.78%2.78%13.89%5.56%5.56%2.78%33.33%
2—8.33%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%25.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%13.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.39 -1.53
SD 0.96 2.00 2.46
CV 1.12 0.84 —
Max 3 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%——16.67%5.56%—33.33%
111.11%2.78%11.11%8.33%2.78%8.33%44.44%
2—8.33%2.78%———11.11%
3—5.56%—2.78%—2.78%11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%13.89%27.78%8.33%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.19 -1.19
SD 0.96 1.70 1.94
CV 0.96 0.78 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%2.78%8.33%2.78%—27.78%
119.44%11.11%5.56%—2.78%—38.89%
22.78%2.78%8.33%———13.89%
32.78%2.78%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total33.33%25.00%22.22%13.89%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.31 1.24 1.88
CV 0.98 0.93 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%—2.78%———5.56%
111.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
211.11%16.67%2.78%2.78%——33.33%
38.33%2.78%2.78%———13.89%
45.56%8.33%————13.89%
5+5.56%8.33%————13.89%
Total44.44%41.67%11.11%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 0.72 +1.94
SD 1.88 0.78 2.14
CV 0.71 1.08 —
Max 10 3 +10
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%2.78%———19.44%
12.78%11.11%8.33%———22.22%
213.89%11.11%————25.00%
35.56%8.33%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
45.56%2.78%————8.33%
5+2.78%——2.78%——5.56%
Total36.11%44.44%13.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.89 +1.06
SD 1.51 0.85 1.71
CV 0.78 0.96 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%8.33%—2.78%2.78%41.67%
12.78%11.11%11.11%5.56%——30.56%
2—8.33%5.56%2.78%——16.67%
3———————
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total13.89%47.22%25.00%8.33%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.47 -0.33
SD 1.42 1.11 1.99
CV 1.24 0.75 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%5.56%5.56%——19.44%
111.11%13.89%8.33%—2.78%—36.11%
28.33%5.56%5.56%—2.78%—22.22%
38.33%2.78%————11.11%
42.78%2.78%—2.78%——8.33%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total38.89%27.78%19.44%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.14 +0.47
SD 1.32 1.20 1.96
CV 0.82 1.05 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%2.78%—11.11%—25.00%
111.11%8.33%11.11%8.33%—5.56%44.44%
22.78%11.11%5.56%———19.44%
32.78%5.56%——2.78%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%30.56%19.44%8.33%13.89%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.81 -0.64
SD 0.94 1.60 2.02
CV 0.81 0.89 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%—8.33%2.78%2.78%—16.67%
18.33%16.67%2.78%2.78%——30.56%
28.33%5.56%8.33%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
48.33%5.56%2.78%———16.67%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total33.33%36.11%22.22%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 1.08 +0.83
SD 1.50 1.02 2.10
CV 0.78 0.95 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Heart of Midlothian 1595 91 74.94 +16.06 99.0% 57 61 69 76 81 87 96
Rangers 1530 67 76.88 -9.88 12.0% 63 65 71 77 82 88 98
Hibernian 1529 70 61.80 +8.20 94.0% 39 51 58 62 67 71 78
Queen of the South 1430 60 57.11 +2.89 73.0% 33 45 52 58 61 68 75
Falkirk 1376 53 54.28 -1.28 45.0% 30 44 48 55 60 68 72
Livingston 1295 27 34.42 -7.42 24.0% 19 21 28 35 40 47 52
Alloa Athletic 1247 27 37.02 -10.02 6.0% 21 26 32 36 42 48 55
Raith Rovers 1239 43 36.99 +6.01 82.0% 18 27 31 37 41 49 53
Dumbarton 1184 34 37.42 -3.42 33.0% 23 25 32 37 41 49 61
Cowdenbeath 1158 25 30.57 -5.57 28.0% 15 20 25 30 35 43 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+5.56%
No Edge
42.22%21.11%36.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.22 goals
Neutral
-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Heart of Midlothian, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.58/gm
Runaway
00.220.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.91 * Some Luck: 5.91 to 8.87 * Lucky: 8.87 to 11.82 * Wild Swing: 11.82 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.81 * Close: 0.81 to 1.22 * Off: 1.22 to 1.62 * Way Off: 1.62 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.16 points
Some Luck
07.3918
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Close
01.012.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Heart of Midlothian
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
6.00%
Alloa Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Lopsided
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 156.69
2.75
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
82%
Wide Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
93%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Some Drama
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%26%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Notable Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.79
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.20
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.099
Well Within Noise
00.1220.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Heart of Midlothian47.00%41.00%6.00%6.00%——————
Hibernian1.00%7.00%52.00%25.00%12.00%1.00%2.00%———
Rangers51.00%45.00%4.00%———————
Queen of the South1.00%5.00%20.00%41.00%24.00%7.00%—2.00%——
Falkirk—2.00%16.00%27.00%44.00%7.00%2.00%1.00%—1.00%
Raith Rovers———1.00%5.00%22.00%18.00%28.00%18.00%8.00%
Dumbarton——1.00%—4.00%22.00%19.00%26.00%16.00%12.00%
Livingston————4.00%19.00%18.00%20.00%20.00%19.00%
Alloa Athletic——1.00%—5.00%18.00%29.00%16.00%21.00%10.00%
Cowdenbeath————2.00%4.00%12.00%7.00%25.00%50.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Rangers 51.00% 49.00% — —
Heart of Midlothian 47.00% 53.00% — —
Hibernian 1.00% 84.00% 15.00% —
Queen of the South 1.00% 66.00% 33.00% —
Falkirk — 45.00% 54.00% 1.00%
Raith Rovers — 1.00% 91.00% 8.00%
Alloa Athletic — 1.00% 89.00% 10.00%
Dumbarton — 1.00% 87.00% 12.00%
Livingston — — 81.00% 19.00%
Cowdenbeath — — 50.00% 50.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2014-08-09 Alloa Athletic W 2-036.4 1356 1296 52.02% 20.06% 27.92%+0.48 +11.3 3
2014-08-09 @ Queen of the South L 0-236.4 1296 1356 27.92% 20.06% 52.02%-0.48 -11.3 0
2014-08-09 Dumbarton W 3-146.4 1265 1323 35.97% 20.43% 43.59%-0.23 +14.1 3
2014-08-09 @ Raith Rovers L 1-346.4 1323 1265 43.59% 20.43% 35.97%+0.23 -14.1 0
2014-08-09 Falkirk D 2-261.1 1276 1390 28.80% 20.13% 51.07%-0.58 +0.7 1
2014-08-09 @ Cowdenbeath D 2-261.1 1390 1276 51.07% 20.13% 28.80%+0.58 -0.7 1
2014-08-09 Livingston W 2-143.9 1371 1298 53.73% 19.93% 26.34%+0.57 +5.4 3
2014-08-09 @ Hibernian L 1-243.9 1298 1371 26.34% 19.93% 53.73%-0.57 -5.4 0
2014-08-10 Heart of Midlothian L 1-263.8 1592 1417 64.72% 18.47% 16.81%+1.19 -11.6 0
2014-08-10 @ Rangers W 2-163.8 1417 1592 16.81% 18.47% 64.72%-1.19 +11.6 3
2014-08-15 Rangers L 0-241.4 1389 1581 20.52% 19.20% 60.28%-1.06 -8.6 1
2014-08-15 @ Falkirk W 2-041.4 1581 1389 60.28% 19.20% 20.52%+1.06 +8.6 3
2014-08-16 Cowdenbeath W 2-145.4 1293 1277 46.24% 20.36% 33.40%+0.21 +6.6 3
2014-08-16 @ Livingston L 1-245.4 1277 1293 33.40% 20.36% 46.24%-0.21 -6.6 1
2014-08-16 Queen of the South L 0-436.6 1308 1367 35.82% 20.43% 43.75%-0.24 -26.4 0
2014-08-16 @ Dumbarton W 4-036.6 1367 1308 43.75% 20.43% 35.82%+0.24 +26.4 6
2014-08-16 Raith Rovers L 0-143.5 1285 1279 44.88% 20.40% 34.72%+0.15 -8.9 0
2014-08-16 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-043.5 1279 1285 34.72% 20.40% 44.88%-0.15 +8.9 6
2014-08-17 Hibernian W 2-146.9 1429 1377 51.07% 20.13% 28.80%+0.44 +5.8 6
2014-08-17 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-246.9 1377 1429 28.80% 20.13% 51.07%-0.44 -5.8 3
2014-08-23 Alloa Athletic L 0-338.6 1270 1276 43.33% 20.44% 36.23%+0.08 -23.6 1
2014-08-23 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-038.6 1276 1270 36.23% 20.44% 43.33%-0.08 +23.6 3
2014-08-23 Dumbarton W 4-136.9 1589 1282 75.29% 15.62% 9.09%+2.00 +4.7 6
2014-08-23 @ Rangers L 1-436.9 1282 1589 9.09% 15.62% 75.29%-2.00 -4.6 0
2014-08-23 Falkirk L 0-144.8 1371 1380 42.80% 20.45% 36.76%+0.06 -8.5 3
2014-08-23 @ Hibernian W 1-044.8 1380 1371 36.76% 20.45% 42.80%-0.06 +8.5 4
2014-08-23 Heart of Midlothian L 0-433.8 1288 1435 25.01% 19.80% 55.19%-0.78 -19.5 6
2014-08-23 @ Raith Rovers W 4-033.8 1435 1288 55.19% 19.80% 25.01%+0.78 +19.5 9
2014-08-23 Livingston D 1-155.9 1394 1299 56.22% 19.70% 24.08%+0.70 -1.4 7
2014-08-23 @ Queen of the South D 1-155.9 1299 1394 24.08% 19.70% 56.22%-0.70 +1.4 4
2014-08-30 Falkirk W 4-142.9 1454 1389 52.74% 20.01% 27.25%+0.52 +13.6 12
2014-08-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-442.9 1389 1454 27.25% 20.01% 52.74%-0.52 -13.6 4
2014-08-30 Hibernian W 2-149.4 1300 1362 35.24% 20.42% 44.35%-0.27 +8.3 6
2014-08-30 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-249.4 1362 1300 44.35% 20.42% 35.24%+0.27 -8.3 3
2014-08-30 Livingston W 1-041.7 1277 1301 40.82% 20.47% 38.71%-0.02 +7.9 3
2014-08-30 @ Dumbarton L 0-141.7 1301 1277 38.71% 20.47% 40.82%+0.02 -7.9 4
2014-08-30 Queen of the South W 4-249.7 1594 1392 67.18% 17.96% 14.87%+1.35 +4.9 9
2014-08-30 @ Rangers L 2-449.7 1392 1594 14.87% 17.96% 67.18%-1.35 -4.9 7
2014-08-30 Raith Rovers L 1-345.2 1247 1269 41.03% 20.47% 38.50%-0.01 -13.4 1
2014-08-30 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-145.2 1269 1247 38.50% 20.47% 41.03%+0.01 +13.5 9
2014-09-12 Rangers L 0-432.5 1282 1599 11.59% 16.82% 71.60%-1.82 -9.3 9
2014-09-12 @ Raith Rovers W 4-032.5 1599 1282 71.60% 16.82% 11.59%+1.82 +9.3 12
2014-09-13 Alloa Athletic W 4-036.5 1293 1308 41.97% 20.46% 37.57%+0.03 +27.5 7
2014-09-13 @ Livingston L 0-436.5 1308 1293 37.57% 20.46% 41.97%-0.03 -27.5 6
2014-09-13 Cowdenbeath W 3-246.8 1354 1233 59.20% 19.35% 21.45%+0.86 +4.2 6
2014-09-13 @ Hibernian L 2-346.8 1233 1354 21.45% 19.35% 59.20%-0.86 -4.2 1
2014-09-13 Heart of Midlothian D 0-052.6 1285 1468 21.39% 19.34% 59.27%-1.00 +1.9 4
2014-09-13 @ Dumbarton D 0-052.6 1468 1285 59.27% 19.34% 21.39%+1.00 -1.9 13
2014-09-13 Queen of the South D 1-156.7 1375 1387 42.42% 20.45% 37.13%+0.05 -0.2 5
2014-09-13 @ Falkirk D 1-156.7 1387 1375 37.13% 20.45% 42.42%-0.05 +0.2 8
2014-09-20 Cowdenbeath W 5-133.0 1466 1229 70.10% 17.24% 12.66%+1.57 +8.5 16
2014-09-20 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-533.0 1229 1466 12.66% 17.24% 70.10%-1.57 -8.5 1
2014-09-20 Dumbarton D 1-155.5 1375 1287 55.46% 19.77% 24.76%+0.66 -1.4 6
2014-09-20 @ Falkirk D 1-155.5 1287 1375 24.76% 19.77% 55.46%-0.66 +1.4 5
2014-09-20 Hibernian W 1-041.4 1387 1358 48.05% 20.29% 31.66%+0.30 +6.7 11
2014-09-20 @ Queen of the South L 0-141.4 1358 1387 31.66% 20.29% 48.05%-0.30 -6.7 6
2014-09-20 Raith Rovers L 0-145.3 1320 1273 50.46% 20.16% 29.37%+0.41 -9.8 7
2014-09-20 @ Livingston W 1-045.3 1273 1320 29.37% 20.16% 50.46%-0.41 +9.8 12
2014-09-20 Rangers D 1-161.1 1280 1608 11.01% 16.57% 72.42%-1.89 +2.9 7
2014-09-20 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-161.1 1608 1280 72.42% 16.57% 11.01%+1.89 -2.9 13
2014-09-27 Alloa Athletic W 3-143.6 1288 1283 44.83% 20.40% 34.77%+0.15 +11.8 8
2014-09-27 @ Dumbarton L 1-343.6 1283 1288 34.77% 20.40% 44.83%-0.15 -11.8 7
2014-09-27 Falkirk D 0-051.0 1283 1374 31.54% 20.28% 48.18%-0.44 +0.8 13
2014-09-27 @ Raith Rovers D 0-051.0 1374 1283 48.18% 20.28% 31.54%+0.44 -0.8 7
2014-09-27 Queen of the South W 2-152.9 1221 1394 22.27% 19.47% 58.26%-0.94 +10.5 4
2014-09-27 @ Cowdenbeath L 1-252.9 1394 1221 58.26% 19.47% 22.27%+0.94 -10.5 11
2014-09-28 Livingston W 5-032.5 1474 1310 63.66% 18.66% 17.68%+1.12 +17.4 19
2014-09-28 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-532.5 1310 1474 17.68% 18.66% 63.66%-1.12 -17.4 7
2014-09-29 Hibernian L 1-361.2 1605 1352 71.43% 16.87% 11.71%+1.67 -22.0 13
2014-09-29 @ Rangers W 3-161.2 1352 1605 11.71% 16.87% 71.43%-1.67 +22.0 9
2014-10-04 Alloa Athletic W 2-142.7 1373 1271 57.03% 19.61% 23.36%+0.74 +4.8 10
2014-10-04 @ Falkirk L 1-242.7 1271 1373 23.36% 19.61% 57.03%-0.74 -4.8 7
2014-10-04 Cowdenbeath D 0-050.3 1300 1231 53.19% 19.97% 26.84%+0.54 -1.3 9
2014-10-04 @ Dumbarton D 0-050.3 1231 1300 26.84% 19.97% 53.19%-0.54 +1.3 5
2014-10-04 Heart of Midlothian L 0-339.4 1384 1492 29.41% 20.17% 50.42%-0.54 -17.2 11
2014-10-04 @ Queen of the South W 3-039.4 1492 1384 50.42% 20.17% 29.41%+0.54 +17.2 22
2014-10-04 Raith Rovers D 1-155.5 1374 1283 55.75% 19.75% 24.50%+0.67 -1.4 10
2014-10-04 @ Hibernian D 1-155.5 1283 1374 24.50% 19.75% 55.75%-0.67 +1.4 14
2014-10-04 Rangers L 0-138.0 1293 1583 13.10% 17.39% 69.50%-1.66 -2.9 7
2014-10-04 @ Livingston W 1-038.0 1583 1293 69.50% 17.39% 13.10%+1.66 +2.9 16
2014-10-10 Queen of the South L 3-453.8 1285 1366 32.75% 20.34% 46.92%-0.38 -6.0 14
2014-10-10 @ Raith Rovers W 4-353.8 1366 1285 46.92% 20.34% 32.75%+0.38 +6.0 14
2014-10-11 Dumbarton D 0-051.3 1372 1299 53.72% 19.93% 26.35%+0.57 -1.3 11
2014-10-11 @ Hibernian D 0-051.3 1299 1372 26.35% 19.93% 53.72%-0.57 +1.3 10
2014-10-11 Heart of Midlothian L 0-136.7 1267 1509 16.35% 18.35% 65.30%-1.37 -3.7 7
2014-10-11 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-036.7 1509 1267 65.30% 18.35% 16.35%+1.37 +3.7 25
2014-10-18 Cowdenbeath L 2-354.6 1263 1233 48.24% 20.28% 31.48%+0.30 -8.4 7
2014-10-18 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-254.6 1233 1263 31.48% 20.28% 48.24%-0.30 +8.4 8
2014-10-18 Dumbarton W 5-135.8 1513 1300 68.08% 17.75% 14.18%+1.42 +9.5 28
2014-10-18 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-535.8 1300 1513 14.18% 17.75% 68.08%-1.42 -9.5 10
2014-10-18 Falkirk W 3-038.5 1372 1378 43.36% 20.44% 36.20%+0.09 +20.4 17
2014-10-18 @ Queen of the South L 0-338.5 1378 1372 36.20% 20.44% 43.36%-0.09 -20.4 10
2014-10-18 Hibernian L 0-435.6 1290 1371 32.84% 20.34% 46.82%-0.38 -24.6 7
2014-10-18 @ Livingston W 4-035.6 1371 1290 46.82% 20.34% 32.84%+0.38 +24.6 14
2014-10-18 Raith Rovers W 6-133.9 1586 1279 75.30% 15.62% 9.08%+2.00 +7.3 19
2014-10-18 @ Rangers L 1-633.9 1279 1586 9.08% 15.62% 75.30%-2.00 -7.3 14
2014-10-21 Livingston D 0-050.9 1357 1265 55.93% 19.73% 24.34%+0.68 -1.6 11
2014-10-21 @ Falkirk D 0-050.9 1265 1357 24.34% 19.73% 55.93%-0.68 +1.6 8
2014-10-25 Alloa Athletic D 1-154.4 1271 1255 46.42% 20.36% 33.22%+0.22 -0.6 15
2014-10-25 @ Raith Rovers D 1-154.4 1255 1271 33.22% 20.36% 46.42%-0.22 +0.6 8
2014-10-25 Cowdenbeath W 6-032.0 1356 1241 58.53% 19.43% 22.03%+0.82 +25.4 14
2014-10-25 @ Falkirk L 0-632.0 1241 1356 22.03% 19.43% 58.53%-0.82 -25.4 8
2014-10-25 Queen of the South D 2-261.1 1267 1393 27.33% 20.02% 52.65%-0.65 +0.8 9
2014-10-25 @ Livingston D 2-261.1 1393 1267 52.65% 20.02% 27.33%+0.65 -0.8 18
2014-10-25 Rangers L 0-333.6 1291 1594 12.37% 17.13% 70.50%-1.74 -7.6 10
2014-10-25 @ Dumbarton W 3-033.6 1594 1291 70.50% 17.13% 12.37%+1.74 +7.6 22
2014-10-26 Heart of Midlothian D 1-161.0 1396 1522 27.25% 20.01% 52.74%-0.66 +1.1 15
2014-10-26 @ Hibernian D 1-161.0 1522 1396 52.74% 20.01% 27.25%+0.66 -1.1 29
2014-11-04 Rangers L 0-330.0 1216 1601 8.38% 15.20% 76.42%-2.24 -5.0 8
2014-11-04 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-030.0 1601 1216 76.42% 15.20% 8.38%+2.24 +5.0 25
2014-11-08 Dumbarton W 3-033.1 1392 1283 57.87% 19.52% 22.62%+0.78 +13.6 21
2014-11-08 @ Queen of the South L 0-333.1 1283 1392 22.62% 19.52% 57.87%-0.78 -13.6 10
2014-11-08 Falkirk W 4-036.9 1606 1381 69.16% 17.48% 13.36%+1.50 +10.7 28
2014-11-08 @ Rangers L 0-436.9 1381 1606 13.36% 17.48% 69.16%-1.50 -10.7 14
2014-11-08 Hibernian L 1-241.6 1210 1397 21.05% 19.29% 59.67%-1.02 -4.4 8
2014-11-08 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-141.6 1397 1210 59.67% 19.29% 21.05%+1.02 +4.4 18
2014-11-08 Livingston W 1-041.0 1255 1268 42.32% 20.45% 37.23%+0.04 +7.6 11
2014-11-08 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-141.0 1268 1255 37.23% 20.45% 42.32%-0.04 -7.6 9
2014-11-08 Raith Rovers W 1-035.3 1521 1271 71.16% 16.94% 11.89%+1.65 +2.7 32
2014-11-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-135.3 1271 1521 11.89% 16.94% 71.16%-1.65 -2.7 15
2014-11-15 Alloa Athletic D 1-161.4 1617 1263 78.25% 14.48% 7.27%+2.29 -3.3 29
2014-11-15 @ Rangers D 1-161.4 1263 1617 7.27% 14.48% 78.25%-2.29 +3.3 12
2014-11-15 Cowdenbeath W 2-143.2 1268 1206 52.33% 20.04% 27.63%+0.50 +5.6 18
2014-11-15 @ Raith Rovers L 1-243.2 1206 1268 27.63% 20.04% 52.33%-0.50 -5.6 8
2014-11-15 Dumbarton L 1-248.0 1260 1270 42.78% 20.45% 36.78%+0.06 -8.0 9
2014-11-15 @ Livingston W 2-148.0 1270 1260 36.78% 20.45% 42.78%-0.06 +8.0 13
2014-11-15 Heart of Midlothian L 1-247.9 1370 1524 24.32% 19.72% 55.96%-0.82 -5.0 14
2014-11-15 @ Falkirk W 2-147.9 1524 1370 55.96% 19.72% 24.32%+0.82 +5.0 35
2014-11-15 Queen of the South D 0-053.4 1401 1406 43.47% 20.43% 36.10%+0.09 -0.3 19
2014-11-15 @ Hibernian D 0-053.4 1406 1401 36.10% 20.43% 43.47%-0.09 +0.4 22
2014-11-22 Falkirk L 2-350.0 1266 1365 30.50% 20.23% 49.27%-0.49 -5.8 12
2014-11-22 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-250.0 1365 1266 49.27% 20.23% 30.50%+0.49 +5.8 17
2014-11-22 Hibernian L 3-644.0 1278 1401 27.65% 20.04% 52.31%-0.64 -11.0 13
2014-11-22 @ Dumbarton W 6-344.0 1401 1278 52.31% 20.04% 27.65%+0.64 +11.0 22
2014-11-22 Livingston W 1-042.5 1200 1252 36.78% 20.45% 42.77%-0.20 +8.5 11
2014-11-22 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-142.5 1252 1200 42.77% 20.45% 36.78%+0.20 -8.5 9
2014-11-22 Raith Rovers W 2-034.2 1406 1274 60.42% 19.18% 20.40%+0.93 +8.5 25
2014-11-22 @ Queen of the South L 0-234.2 1274 1406 20.40% 19.18% 60.42%-0.93 -8.5 18
2014-11-22 Rangers W 2-055.8 1529 1614 32.32% 20.32% 47.36%-0.40 +17.5 38
2014-11-22 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-255.8 1614 1529 47.36% 20.32% 32.32%+0.40 -17.5 29
2014-12-06 Cowdenbeath W 1-032.9 1596 1209 80.13% 13.66% 6.21%+2.49 +1.3 32
2014-12-06 @ Rangers L 0-132.9 1209 1596 6.21% 13.66% 80.13%-2.49 -1.3 11
2014-12-06 Dumbarton L 0-142.8 1260 1267 43.21% 20.44% 36.35%+0.08 -8.6 12
2014-12-06 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-042.8 1267 1260 36.35% 20.44% 43.21%-0.08 +8.6 16
2014-12-06 Hibernian W 1-045.0 1371 1412 38.34% 20.46% 41.20%-0.13 +8.3 20
2014-12-06 @ Falkirk L 0-145.0 1412 1371 41.20% 20.46% 38.34%+0.13 -8.3 22
2014-12-06 Livingston L 1-542.9 1265 1244 47.07% 20.33% 32.60%+0.25 -27.5 18
2014-12-06 @ Raith Rovers W 5-142.9 1244 1265 32.60% 20.33% 47.07%-0.25 +27.5 12
2014-12-06 Queen of the South W 4-144.4 1546 1414 60.37% 19.19% 20.44%+0.92 +10.5 41
2014-12-06 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-444.4 1414 1546 20.44% 19.19% 60.37%-0.92 -10.5 25
2014-12-12 Rangers W 2-054.6 1404 1597 20.38% 19.18% 60.44%-1.07 +21.8 28
2014-12-12 @ Queen of the South L 0-254.6 1597 1404 60.44% 19.18% 20.38%+1.07 -21.8 32
2014-12-13 Alloa Athletic W 2-033.3 1403 1252 62.45% 18.87% 18.68%+1.05 +7.9 25
2014-12-13 @ Hibernian L 0-233.3 1252 1403 18.68% 18.87% 62.45%-1.05 -7.9 12
2014-12-13 Falkirk L 0-139.4 1271 1379 29.40% 20.17% 50.44%-0.54 -6.3 12
2014-12-13 @ Livingston W 1-039.4 1379 1271 50.44% 20.17% 29.40%+0.54 +6.3 23
2014-12-13 Raith Rovers W 2-144.2 1275 1238 49.17% 20.24% 30.59%+0.35 +6.1 19
2014-12-13 @ Dumbarton L 1-244.2 1238 1275 30.59% 20.24% 49.17%-0.35 -6.1 18
2014-12-20 Alloa Athletic W 2-031.6 1557 1244 75.65% 15.49% 8.86%+2.03 +3.7 44
2014-12-20 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-231.6 1244 1557 8.86% 15.49% 75.65%-2.03 -3.7 12
2014-12-20 Cowdenbeath L 1-255.5 1426 1208 68.57% 17.63% 13.80%+1.45 -12.2 28
2014-12-20 @ Queen of the South W 2-155.5 1208 1426 13.80% 17.63% 68.57%-1.45 +12.2 14
2014-12-20 Falkirk L 0-335.4 1281 1386 29.88% 20.20% 49.93%-0.52 -17.4 19
2014-12-20 @ Dumbarton W 3-035.4 1386 1281 49.93% 20.20% 29.88%+0.52 +17.4 26
2014-12-20 Hibernian L 1-339.9 1232 1411 21.66% 19.38% 58.96%-0.98 -7.8 18
2014-12-20 @ Raith Rovers W 3-139.9 1411 1232 58.96% 19.38% 21.66%+0.98 +7.8 28
2014-12-20 Livingston W 2-032.6 1576 1265 75.52% 15.54% 8.94%+2.02 +3.7 35
2014-12-20 @ Rangers L 0-232.6 1265 1576 8.94% 15.54% 75.52%-2.02 -3.7 12
2014-12-23 Heart of Midlothian L 0-231.9 1220 1560 10.38% 16.28% 73.34%-1.97 -4.4 14
2014-12-23 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-031.9 1560 1220 73.34% 16.28% 10.38%+1.97 +4.4 47
2014-12-27 Dumbarton L 1-344.0 1216 1264 37.24% 20.45% 42.31%-0.18 -12.5 14
2014-12-27 @ Cowdenbeath W 3-144.0 1264 1216 42.31% 20.45% 37.24%+0.18 +12.4 22
2014-12-27 Heart of Midlothian L 0-136.3 1261 1565 12.33% 17.11% 70.56%-1.74 -2.8 12
2014-12-27 @ Livingston W 1-036.3 1565 1261 70.56% 17.11% 12.33%+1.74 +2.8 50
2014-12-27 Queen of the South D 1-155.5 1240 1414 22.27% 19.47% 58.26%-0.94 +1.6 13
2014-12-27 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-155.5 1414 1240 58.26% 19.47% 22.27%+0.94 -1.6 29
2014-12-27 Raith Rovers L 0-149.4 1403 1224 65.12% 18.39% 16.49%+1.22 -12.4 26
2014-12-27 @ Falkirk W 1-049.4 1224 1403 16.49% 18.39% 65.12%-1.22 +12.4 21
2014-12-27 Rangers W 4-051.0 1419 1579 23.59% 19.64% 56.78%-0.86 +39.0 31
2014-12-27 @ Hibernian L 0-451.0 1579 1419 56.78% 19.64% 23.59%+0.86 -39.0 35
2015-01-03 Alloa Athletic W 1-035.7 1391 1242 62.17% 18.92% 18.92%+1.03 +4.2 29
2015-01-03 @ Falkirk L 0-135.7 1242 1391 18.92% 18.92% 62.17%-1.03 -4.2 13
2015-01-03 Dumbarton W 3-138.7 1540 1276 72.22% 16.63% 11.15%+1.73 +4.1 38
2015-01-03 @ Rangers L 1-338.7 1276 1540 11.15% 16.63% 72.22%-1.73 -4.1 22
2015-01-03 Hibernian D 1-165.1 1567 1458 57.93% 19.51% 22.56%+0.79 -1.6 51
2015-01-03 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-165.1 1458 1567 22.56% 19.51% 57.93%-0.79 +1.6 32
2015-01-03 Livingston W 3-139.0 1412 1258 62.63% 18.84% 18.53%+1.06 +6.8 32
2015-01-03 @ Queen of the South L 1-339.0 1258 1412 18.53% 18.84% 62.63%-1.06 -6.8 12
2015-01-03 Raith Rovers L 0-141.4 1203 1236 39.40% 20.47% 40.13%-0.08 -8.0 14
2015-01-03 @ Cowdenbeath W 1-041.4 1236 1203 40.13% 20.47% 39.40%+0.08 +8.0 24
2015-01-10 Cowdenbeath D 1-154.3 1252 1195 51.62% 20.09% 28.29%+0.46 -1.0 13
2015-01-10 @ Livingston D 1-154.3 1195 1252 28.29% 20.09% 51.62%-0.46 +1.0 15
2015-01-10 Falkirk D 3-368.8 1460 1395 52.66% 20.02% 27.33%+0.51 -0.7 33
2015-01-10 @ Hibernian D 3-368.8 1395 1460 27.33% 20.02% 52.66%-0.51 +0.7 30
2015-01-10 Heart of Midlothian L 1-535.9 1272 1566 12.91% 17.33% 69.76%-1.68 -8.6 22
2015-01-10 @ Dumbarton W 5-135.9 1566 1272 69.76% 17.33% 12.91%+1.68 +8.6 54
2015-01-10 Rangers L 0-135.2 1238 1544 12.13% 17.04% 70.83%-1.76 -2.7 13
2015-01-10 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-035.2 1544 1238 70.83% 17.04% 12.13%+1.76 +2.7 41
2015-01-17 Cowdenbeath W 5-028.0 1459 1196 72.14% 16.66% 11.20%+1.73 +11.0 36
2015-01-17 @ Hibernian L 0-528.0 1196 1459 11.20% 16.66% 72.14%-1.73 -11.0 15
2015-01-17 Dumbarton W 2-146.6 1244 1264 41.35% 20.46% 38.19%+0.00 +7.3 27
2015-01-17 @ Raith Rovers L 1-246.6 1264 1244 38.19% 20.46% 41.35%+0.00 -7.3 22
2015-01-17 Queen of the South D 1-157.8 1396 1419 40.84% 20.47% 38.69%-0.02 -0.1 31
2015-01-17 @ Falkirk D 1-157.8 1419 1396 38.69% 20.47% 40.84%+0.02 +0.1 33
2015-01-24 Falkirk L 2-367.6 1574 1396 65.09% 18.40% 16.52%+1.21 -11.1 54
2015-01-24 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-267.6 1396 1574 16.52% 18.40% 65.09%-1.21 +11.1 34
2015-01-24 Hibernian L 0-243.9 1419 1470 36.83% 20.45% 42.72%-0.20 -14.2 33
2015-01-24 @ Queen of the South W 2-043.9 1470 1419 42.72% 20.45% 36.83%+0.20 +14.2 39
2015-01-24 Livingston L 1-542.3 1256 1251 44.89% 20.40% 34.71%+0.15 -26.4 22
2015-01-24 @ Dumbarton W 5-142.3 1251 1256 34.71% 20.40% 44.89%-0.15 +26.4 16
2015-01-24 Raith Rovers D 0-050.0 1235 1251 41.75% 20.46% 37.79%+0.02 -0.2 14
2015-01-24 @ Alloa Athletic D 0-050.0 1251 1235 37.79% 20.46% 41.75%-0.02 +0.2 28
2015-01-31 Dumbarton D 3-365.4 1407 1230 64.88% 18.44% 16.69%+1.20 -1.4 35
2015-01-31 @ Falkirk D 3-365.4 1230 1407 16.69% 18.44% 64.88%-1.20 +1.4 23
2015-01-31 Heart of Midlothian L 1-435.9 1235 1563 10.96% 16.55% 72.50%-1.89 -5.6 14
2015-01-31 @ Alloa Athletic W 4-135.9 1563 1235 72.50% 16.55% 10.96%+1.89 +5.6 57
2015-01-31 Queen of the South L 0-530.2 1185 1405 18.14% 18.76% 63.10%-1.23 -17.9 15
2015-01-31 @ Cowdenbeath W 5-030.2 1405 1185 63.10% 18.76% 18.14%+1.23 +17.9 36
2015-01-31 Raith Rovers D 1-157.2 1484 1252 69.78% 17.32% 12.90%+1.54 -2.6 40
2015-01-31 @ Hibernian D 1-157.2 1252 1484 12.90% 17.32% 69.78%-1.54 +2.6 29
2015-02-03 Alloa Athletic D 0-050.1 1277 1229 50.55% 20.16% 29.29%+0.41 -1.0 17
2015-02-03 @ Livingston D 0-050.1 1229 1277 29.29% 20.16% 50.55%-0.41 +1.0 15
2015-02-07 Heart of Midlothian L 2-347.5 1276 1569 12.94% 17.34% 69.72%-1.68 -2.6 17
2015-02-07 @ Livingston W 3-247.5 1569 1276 69.72% 17.34% 12.94%+1.68 +2.6 60
2015-02-13 Hibernian L 0-253.5 1547 1482 52.75% 20.01% 27.24%+0.52 -19.2 41
2015-02-13 @ Rangers W 2-053.5 1482 1547 27.24% 20.01% 52.75%-0.52 +19.2 43
2015-02-14 Alloa Athletic W 1-034.7 1422 1230 66.33% 18.14% 15.53%+1.30 +3.5 39
2015-02-14 @ Queen of the South L 0-134.7 1230 1422 15.53% 18.14% 66.33%-1.30 -3.5 15
2015-02-14 Cowdenbeath L 1-250.5 1231 1167 52.57% 20.02% 27.41%+0.51 -9.6 23
2015-02-14 @ Dumbarton W 2-150.5 1167 1231 27.41% 20.02% 52.57%-0.51 +9.6 18
2015-02-14 Falkirk D 2-261.2 1254 1405 24.56% 19.75% 55.69%-0.81 +1.0 30
2015-02-14 @ Raith Rovers D 2-261.2 1405 1254 55.69% 19.75% 24.56%+0.81 -1.0 36
2015-02-14 Livingston W 1-035.5 1572 1273 74.68% 15.84% 9.49%+1.94 +2.1 63
2015-02-14 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-135.5 1273 1572 9.49% 15.84% 74.68%-1.94 -2.1 17
2015-02-20 Rangers L 1-241.4 1255 1528 14.23% 17.76% 68.01%-1.55 -3.0 30
2015-02-20 @ Raith Rovers W 2-141.4 1528 1255 68.01% 17.76% 14.23%+1.55 +3.0 44
2015-02-21 Alloa Athletic L 0-238.1 1177 1226 37.05% 20.45% 42.50%-0.19 -14.3 18
2015-02-21 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-038.1 1226 1177 42.50% 20.45% 37.05%+0.19 +14.3 18
2015-02-21 Dumbarton W 3-029.1 1501 1222 73.34% 16.28% 10.38%+1.83 +6.3 46
2015-02-21 @ Hibernian L 0-329.1 1222 1501 10.38% 16.28% 73.34%-1.83 -6.3 23
2015-02-21 Heart of Midlothian L 1-251.9 1426 1574 24.88% 19.79% 55.33%-0.79 -5.1 39
2015-02-21 @ Queen of the South W 2-151.9 1574 1426 55.33% 19.79% 24.88%+0.79 +5.1 66
2015-02-21 Livingston W 2-034.1 1404 1271 60.50% 19.17% 20.33%+0.93 +8.5 39
2015-02-21 @ Falkirk L 0-234.1 1271 1404 20.33% 19.17% 60.50%-0.93 -8.5 17
2015-02-27 Rangers D 1-161.9 1413 1531 28.21% 20.08% 51.70%-0.61 +1.0 40
2015-02-27 @ Falkirk D 1-161.9 1531 1413 51.70% 20.08% 28.21%+0.61 -1.0 45
2015-02-28 Cowdenbeath W 10-027.8 1579 1162 81.68% 12.94% 5.39%+2.67 +9.7 69
2015-02-28 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-1027.8 1162 1579 5.39% 12.94% 81.68%-2.67 -9.7 18
2015-02-28 Hibernian L 0-135.6 1241 1507 14.64% 17.89% 67.47%-1.51 -3.3 18
2015-02-28 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-035.6 1507 1241 67.47% 17.89% 14.64%+1.51 +3.3 49
2015-02-28 Queen of the South D 0-051.2 1215 1421 19.32% 18.99% 61.69%-1.14 +2.2 24
2015-02-28 @ Dumbarton D 0-051.2 1421 1215 61.69% 18.99% 19.32%+1.14 -2.2 40
2015-02-28 Raith Rovers L 0-240.9 1263 1252 45.54% 20.38% 34.07%+0.18 -16.9 17
2015-02-28 @ Livingston W 2-040.9 1252 1263 34.07% 20.38% 45.54%-0.18 +16.9 33
2015-03-07 Alloa Athletic W 1-041.1 1217 1238 41.27% 20.46% 38.26%+0.00 +7.8 27
2015-03-07 @ Dumbarton L 0-141.1 1238 1217 38.26% 20.46% 41.27%+0.00 -7.8 18
2015-03-07 Rangers D 0-052.8 1153 1530 8.72% 15.41% 75.87%-2.19 +3.5 19
2015-03-07 @ Cowdenbeath D 0-052.8 1530 1153 75.87% 15.41% 8.72%+2.19 -3.5 46
2015-03-10 Queen of the South D 1-162.1 1526 1419 57.76% 19.53% 22.71%+0.78 -1.6 47
2015-03-10 @ Rangers D 1-162.1 1419 1526 22.71% 19.53% 57.76%-0.78 +1.6 41
2015-03-11 Livingston W 2-139.6 1511 1246 72.27% 16.62% 11.11%+1.74 +2.3 52
2015-03-11 @ Hibernian L 1-239.6 1246 1511 11.11% 16.62% 72.27%-1.74 -2.3 17
2015-03-14 Dumbarton W 4-028.5 1589 1225 78.78% 14.25% 6.96%+2.34 +5.4 72
2015-03-14 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-428.5 1225 1589 6.96% 14.25% 78.78%-2.34 -5.4 27
2015-03-14 Falkirk L 1-339.7 1230 1414 21.25% 19.32% 59.42%-1.01 -7.7 18
2015-03-14 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-139.7 1414 1230 59.42% 19.32% 21.25%+1.01 +7.7 43
2015-03-14 Hibernian L 0-229.8 1156 1513 9.62% 15.90% 74.48%-2.06 -4.0 19
2015-03-14 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-029.8 1513 1156 74.48% 15.90% 9.62%+2.06 +4.0 55
2015-03-14 Livingston D 1-158.1 1525 1244 73.49% 16.23% 10.28%+1.84 -3.0 48
2015-03-14 @ Rangers D 1-158.1 1244 1525 10.28% 16.23% 73.49%-1.84 +3.0 18
2015-03-14 Raith Rovers W 2-141.5 1420 1269 62.36% 18.89% 18.75%+1.04 +3.9 44
2015-03-14 @ Queen of the South L 1-241.5 1269 1420 18.75% 18.89% 62.36%-1.04 -3.9 33
2015-03-17 Alloa Athletic D 2-263.4 1522 1222 74.78% 15.80% 9.42%+1.95 -2.3 49
2015-03-17 @ Rangers D 2-263.4 1222 1522 9.42% 15.80% 74.78%-1.95 +2.3 19
2015-03-17 Heart of Midlothian L 1-339.7 1265 1594 10.96% 16.55% 72.49%-1.89 -4.0 33
2015-03-17 @ Raith Rovers W 3-139.7 1594 1265 72.49% 16.55% 10.96%+1.89 +4.0 75
2015-03-21 Alloa Athletic W 2-144.2 1261 1224 49.11% 20.24% 30.65%+0.34 +6.1 36
2015-03-21 @ Raith Rovers L 1-244.2 1224 1261 30.65% 20.24% 49.11%-0.34 -6.1 19
2015-03-21 Cowdenbeath W 4-133.0 1424 1152 72.80% 16.45% 10.74%+1.78 +5.5 47
2015-03-21 @ Queen of the South L 1-433.0 1152 1424 10.74% 16.45% 72.80%-1.78 -5.5 19
2015-03-21 Dumbarton L 1-249.3 1246 1220 47.73% 20.30% 31.96%+0.28 -8.8 18
2015-03-21 @ Livingston W 2-149.3 1220 1246 31.96% 20.30% 47.73%-0.28 +8.8 30
2015-03-21 Heart of Midlothian L 0-342.0 1421 1598 21.96% 19.42% 58.61%-0.96 -13.3 43
2015-03-21 @ Falkirk W 3-042.0 1598 1421 58.61% 19.42% 21.96%+0.96 +13.3 78
2015-03-22 Rangers L 0-251.2 1517 1520 43.72% 20.43% 35.85%+0.10 -16.4 55
2015-03-22 @ Hibernian W 2-051.2 1520 1517 35.85% 20.43% 43.72%-0.10 +16.4 52
2015-03-24 Falkirk L 0-133.8 1147 1408 14.98% 17.99% 67.03%-1.48 -3.4 19
2015-03-24 @ Cowdenbeath W 1-033.8 1408 1147 67.03% 17.99% 14.98%+1.48 +3.4 46
2015-03-24 Queen of the South W 3-043.7 1267 1430 23.39% 19.61% 57.00%-0.87 +30.0 39
2015-03-24 @ Raith Rovers L 0-343.7 1430 1267 57.00% 19.61% 23.39%+0.87 -30.0 47
2015-03-28 Cowdenbeath W 4-131.5 1536 1143 80.43% 13.53% 6.05%+2.52 +3.0 55
2015-03-28 @ Rangers L 1-431.5 1143 1536 6.05% 13.53% 80.43%-2.52 -3.0 19
2015-03-28 Falkirk W 1-048.0 1229 1412 21.37% 19.34% 59.30%-1.00 +11.3 33
2015-03-28 @ Dumbarton L 0-148.0 1412 1229 59.30% 19.34% 21.37%+1.00 -11.3 46
2015-03-28 Hibernian W 2-156.2 1297 1501 19.52% 19.03% 61.45%-1.13 +11.1 42
2015-03-28 @ Raith Rovers L 1-256.2 1501 1297 61.45% 19.03% 19.52%+1.13 -11.1 55
2015-03-28 Livingston D 2-259.8 1218 1238 41.36% 20.46% 38.18%+0.00 -0.1 20
2015-03-28 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-259.8 1238 1218 38.18% 20.46% 41.36%+0.00 +0.1 19
2015-03-28 Queen of the South W 2-040.6 1611 1400 68.02% 17.76% 14.22%+1.41 +6.0 81
2015-03-28 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-240.6 1400 1611 14.22% 17.76% 68.02%-1.41 -6.0 47
2015-03-31 Cowdenbeath W 1-032.2 1400 1140 71.90% 16.73% 11.37%+1.71 +2.5 49
2015-03-31 @ Falkirk L 0-132.2 1140 1400 11.37% 16.73% 71.90%-1.71 -2.6 19
2015-04-04 Dumbarton W 3-040.0 1138 1240 30.15% 20.21% 49.64%-0.51 +26.5 22
2015-04-04 @ Cowdenbeath L 0-340.0 1240 1138 49.64% 20.21% 30.15%+0.51 -26.5 33
2015-04-04 Queen of the South L 0-151.9 1489 1394 56.39% 19.68% 23.93%+0.70 -10.8 55
2015-04-04 @ Hibernian W 1-051.9 1394 1489 23.93% 19.68% 56.39%-0.70 +10.8 50
2015-04-04 Raith Rovers W 1-038.4 1403 1308 56.21% 19.70% 24.09%+0.70 +5.3 52
2015-04-04 @ Falkirk L 0-138.4 1308 1403 24.09% 19.70% 56.21%-0.70 -5.3 42
2015-04-05 Heart of Midlothian W 2-163.8 1539 1617 33.18% 20.35% 46.47%-0.36 +8.6 58
2015-04-05 @ Rangers L 1-263.8 1617 1539 46.47% 20.35% 33.18%+0.36 -8.6 81
2015-04-08 Alloa Athletic W 3-029.0 1609 1218 80.31% 13.58% 6.11%+2.51 +3.6 84
2015-04-08 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-329.0 1218 1609 6.11% 13.58% 80.31%-2.51 -3.6 20
2015-04-08 Cowdenbeath L 1-350.7 1303 1164 61.13% 19.08% 19.79%+0.97 -19.0 42
2015-04-08 @ Raith Rovers W 3-150.7 1164 1303 19.79% 19.08% 61.13%-0.97 +19.0 25
2015-04-08 Falkirk W 2-153.0 1238 1408 22.59% 19.51% 57.90%-0.92 +10.5 22
2015-04-08 @ Livingston L 1-253.0 1408 1238 57.90% 19.51% 22.59%+0.92 -10.5 52
2015-04-08 Hibernian L 1-240.1 1214 1479 14.73% 17.92% 67.35%-1.50 -3.1 33
2015-04-08 @ Dumbarton W 2-140.1 1479 1214 67.35% 17.92% 14.73%+1.50 +3.1 58
2015-04-09 Rangers W 3-049.4 1404 1548 25.41% 19.84% 54.75%-0.76 +28.9 53
2015-04-09 @ Queen of the South L 0-349.4 1548 1404 54.75% 19.84% 25.41%+0.76 -28.9 58
2015-04-11 Dumbarton W 3-035.7 1215 1210 44.67% 20.41% 34.92%+0.14 +19.8 23
2015-04-11 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-335.7 1210 1215 34.92% 20.41% 44.67%-0.14 -19.8 33
2015-04-11 Livingston L 1-245.4 1183 1248 34.97% 20.41% 44.62%-0.28 -6.8 25
2015-04-11 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-145.4 1248 1183 44.62% 20.41% 34.97%+0.28 +6.8 25
2015-04-12 Falkirk W 1-042.9 1433 1398 48.96% 20.25% 30.79%+0.34 +6.5 56
2015-04-12 @ Queen of the South L 0-142.9 1398 1433 30.79% 20.25% 48.96%-0.34 -6.5 52
2015-04-12 Heart of Midlothian W 2-056.0 1482 1612 26.80% 19.97% 53.23%-0.68 +19.4 61
2015-04-12 @ Hibernian L 0-256.0 1612 1482 53.23% 19.97% 26.80%+0.68 -19.4 84
2015-04-12 Raith Rovers W 4-030.9 1519 1284 69.93% 17.28% 12.79%+1.55 +10.3 61
2015-04-12 @ Rangers L 0-430.9 1284 1519 12.79% 17.28% 69.93%-1.55 -10.3 42
2015-04-15 Rangers D 1-158.0 1255 1529 14.15% 17.74% 68.11%-1.56 +2.5 26
2015-04-15 @ Livingston D 1-158.0 1529 1255 68.11% 17.74% 14.15%+1.56 -2.5 62
2015-04-18 Queen of the South D 2-261.5 1234 1440 19.31% 18.99% 61.70%-1.14 +1.4 24
2015-04-18 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-261.5 1440 1234 61.70% 18.99% 19.31%+1.14 -1.4 57
2015-04-18 Raith Rovers W 2-141.0 1593 1274 76.06% 15.34% 8.60%+2.07 +1.8 87
2015-04-18 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-241.0 1274 1593 8.60% 15.34% 76.06%-2.07 -1.8 42
2015-04-18 Rangers L 1-336.5 1191 1526 10.60% 16.39% 73.01%-1.94 -3.9 33
2015-04-18 @ Dumbarton W 3-136.5 1526 1191 73.01% 16.39% 10.60%+1.94 +3.9 65
2015-04-22 Hibernian L 1-339.5 1258 1501 16.26% 18.33% 65.41%-1.37 -6.0 26
2015-04-22 @ Livingston W 3-139.5 1501 1258 65.41% 18.33% 16.26%+1.37 +5.9 64
2015-04-25 Alloa Athletic W 4-134.7 1507 1236 72.76% 16.46% 10.77%+1.78 +5.6 67
2015-04-25 @ Hibernian L 1-434.7 1236 1507 10.77% 16.46% 72.76%-1.78 -5.6 24
2015-04-25 Dumbarton W 2-138.2 1438 1187 71.29% 16.91% 11.81%+1.66 +2.5 60
2015-04-25 @ Queen of the South L 1-238.2 1187 1438 11.81% 16.91% 71.29%-1.66 -2.5 33
2015-04-25 Falkirk D 2-267.0 1530 1391 61.17% 19.07% 19.76%+0.97 -1.4 66
2015-04-25 @ Rangers D 2-267.0 1391 1530 19.76% 19.07% 61.17%-0.97 +1.4 53
2015-04-25 Heart of Midlothian L 1-238.0 1177 1595 7.18% 14.41% 78.41%-2.44 -1.5 25
2015-04-25 @ Cowdenbeath W 2-138.0 1595 1177 78.41% 14.41% 7.18%+2.44 +1.5 90
2015-04-25 Livingston L 0-438.9 1272 1252 46.90% 20.34% 32.76%+0.24 -32.9 42
2015-04-25 @ Raith Rovers W 4-038.9 1252 1272 32.76% 20.34% 46.90%-0.24 +32.9 29
2015-05-02 Cowdenbeath W 3-033.6 1230 1175 51.46% 20.10% 28.44%+0.46 +16.7 27
2015-05-02 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-333.6 1175 1230 28.44% 20.10% 51.46%-0.46 -16.7 25
2015-05-02 Hibernian L 0-339.8 1392 1513 27.98% 20.07% 51.96%-0.62 -16.5 53
2015-05-02 @ Falkirk W 3-039.8 1513 1392 51.96% 20.07% 27.98%+0.62 +16.4 70
2015-05-02 Queen of the South W 1-048.3 1285 1441 23.99% 19.69% 56.33%-0.84 +10.8 32
2015-05-02 @ Livingston L 0-148.3 1441 1285 56.33% 19.69% 23.99%+0.84 -10.8 60
2015-05-02 Raith Rovers D 2-259.8 1184 1239 36.34% 20.44% 43.22%-0.22 +0.2 34
2015-05-02 @ Dumbarton D 2-259.8 1239 1184 43.22% 20.44% 36.34%+0.22 -0.2 43
2015-05-02 Rangers D 2-274.0 1596 1529 52.97% 19.99% 27.04%+0.53 -0.8 91
2015-05-02 @ Heart of Midlothian D 2-274.0 1529 1596 27.04% 19.99% 52.97%-0.53 +0.9 67

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2014-09-29 11.71% Hibernian 1352 3 @ Rangers 1605 1
2 2014-12-20 13.80% Cowdenbeath 1208 2 @ Queen of the South 1426 1
3 2014-12-27 16.49% Raith Rovers 1224 1 @ Falkirk 1403 0
4 2015-01-24 16.52% Falkirk 1396 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1574 2
5 2014-08-10 16.81% Heart of Midlothian 1417 2 @ Rangers 1592 1
6 2015-03-28 19.52% @ Raith Rovers 1297 2 Hibernian 1501 1
7 2015-04-08 19.79% Cowdenbeath 1164 3 @ Raith Rovers 1303 1
8 2014-12-12 20.38% @ Queen of the South 1404 2 Rangers 1597 0
9 2015-03-28 21.37% @ Dumbarton 1229 1 Falkirk 1412 0
10 2014-09-27 22.27% @ Cowdenbeath 1221 2 Queen of the South 1394 1
11 2015-04-08 22.59% @ Livingston 1238 2 Falkirk 1408 1
12 2015-03-24 23.39% @ Raith Rovers 1267 3 Queen of the South 1430 0
13 2014-12-27 23.59% @ Hibernian 1419 4 Rangers 1579 0
14 2015-04-04 23.93% Queen of the South 1394 1 @ Hibernian 1489 0
15 2015-05-02 23.99% @ Livingston 1285 1 Queen of the South 1441 0
16 2015-04-09 25.41% @ Queen of the South 1404 3 Rangers 1548 0
17 2015-04-12 26.80% @ Hibernian 1482 2 Heart of Midlothian 1612 0
18 2015-02-13 27.24% Hibernian 1482 2 @ Rangers 1547 0
19 2015-02-14 27.41% Cowdenbeath 1167 2 @ Dumbarton 1231 1
20 2014-09-20 29.37% Raith Rovers 1273 1 @ Livingston 1320 0
21 2015-04-04 30.15% @ Cowdenbeath 1138 3 Dumbarton 1240 0
22 2014-10-18 31.48% Cowdenbeath 1233 3 @ Alloa Athletic 1263 2
23 2015-03-21 31.96% Dumbarton 1220 2 @ Livingston 1246 1
24 2014-11-22 32.32% @ Heart of Midlothian 1529 2 Rangers 1614 0
25 2014-12-06 32.60% Livingston 1244 5 @ Raith Rovers 1265 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2014-12-27 39.01 @ Hibernian 4 1419 23.59% Rangers 0 1579 56.78% 19.64%
2 2015-04-25 32.94 Livingston 4 1252 32.76% @ Raith Rovers 0 1272 46.90% 20.34%
3 2015-03-24 29.96 @ Raith Rovers 3 1267 23.39% Queen of the South 0 1430 57.00% 19.61%
4 2015-04-09 28.89 @ Queen of the South 3 1404 25.41% Rangers 0 1548 54.75% 19.84%
5 2014-12-06 27.53 Livingston 5 1244 32.60% @ Raith Rovers 1 1265 47.07% 20.33%
6 2014-09-13 27.47 @ Livingston 4 1293 41.97% Alloa Athletic 0 1308 37.57% 20.46%
7 2015-04-04 26.48 @ Cowdenbeath 3 1138 30.15% Dumbarton 0 1240 49.64% 20.21%
8 2015-01-24 26.45 Livingston 5 1251 34.71% @ Dumbarton 1 1256 44.89% 20.40%
9 2014-08-16 26.43 Queen of the South 4 1367 43.75% @ Dumbarton 0 1308 35.82% 20.43%
10 2014-10-25 25.44 @ Falkirk 6 1356 58.53% Cowdenbeath 0 1241 22.03% 19.43%
11 2014-10-18 24.61 Hibernian 4 1371 46.82% @ Livingston 0 1290 32.84% 20.34%
12 2014-08-23 23.59 Alloa Athletic 3 1276 36.23% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1270 43.33% 20.44%
13 2014-09-29 21.96 Hibernian 3 1352 11.71% @ Rangers 1 1605 71.43% 16.87%
14 2014-12-12 21.78 @ Queen of the South 2 1404 20.38% Rangers 0 1597 60.44% 19.18%
15 2014-10-18 20.41 @ Queen of the South 3 1372 43.36% Falkirk 0 1378 36.20% 20.44%
16 2015-04-11 19.82 @ Alloa Athletic 3 1215 44.67% Dumbarton 0 1210 34.92% 20.41%
17 2014-08-23 19.48 Heart of Midlothian 4 1435 55.19% @ Raith Rovers 0 1288 25.01% 19.80%
18 2015-04-12 19.39 @ Hibernian 2 1482 26.80% Heart of Midlothian 0 1612 53.23% 19.97%
19 2015-02-13 19.24 Hibernian 2 1482 27.24% @ Rangers 0 1547 52.75% 20.01%
20 2015-04-08 19.05 Cowdenbeath 3 1164 19.79% @ Raith Rovers 1 1303 61.13% 19.08%
21 2015-01-31 17.87 Queen of the South 5 1405 63.10% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1185 18.14% 18.76%
22 2014-11-22 17.50 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1529 32.32% Rangers 0 1614 47.36% 20.32%
23 2014-09-28 17.43 @ Heart of Midlothian 5 1474 63.66% Livingston 0 1310 17.68% 18.66%
24 2014-12-20 17.40 Falkirk 3 1386 49.93% @ Dumbarton 0 1281 29.88% 20.20%
25 2014-10-04 17.17 Heart of Midlothian 3 1492 50.42% @ Queen of the South 0 1384 29.41% 20.17%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-05-02 74.0 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1596 52.97% Rangers 2 1529 27.04% 19.99%
2 2015-01-10 68.8 @ Hibernian 3 1460 52.66% Falkirk 3 1395 27.33% 20.02%
3 2015-01-24 67.6 Falkirk 3 1396 16.52% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1574 65.09% 18.40%
4 2015-04-25 67.0 @ Rangers 2 1530 61.17% Falkirk 2 1391 19.76% 19.07%
5 2015-01-31 65.4 @ Falkirk 3 1407 64.88% Dumbarton 3 1230 16.69% 18.44%
6 2015-01-03 65.1 @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1567 57.93% Hibernian 1 1458 22.56% 19.51%
7 2014-08-10 63.8 Heart of Midlothian 2 1417 16.81% @ Rangers 1 1592 64.72% 18.47%
8 2015-04-05 63.8 @ Rangers 2 1539 33.18% Heart of Midlothian 1 1617 46.47% 20.35%
9 2015-03-17 63.4 @ Rangers 2 1522 74.78% Alloa Athletic 2 1222 9.42% 15.80%
10 2015-03-10 62.1 @ Rangers 1 1526 57.76% Queen of the South 1 1419 22.71% 19.53%
11 2015-02-27 61.9 @ Falkirk 1 1413 28.21% Rangers 1 1531 51.70% 20.08%
12 2015-04-18 61.5 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1234 19.31% Queen of the South 2 1440 61.70% 18.99%
13 2014-11-15 61.4 @ Rangers 1 1617 78.25% Alloa Athletic 1 1263 7.27% 14.48%
14 2014-09-29 61.2 Hibernian 3 1352 11.71% @ Rangers 1 1605 71.43% 16.87%
15 2015-02-14 61.2 @ Raith Rovers 2 1254 24.56% Falkirk 2 1405 55.69% 19.75%
16 2014-08-09 61.1 @ Cowdenbeath 2 1276 28.80% Falkirk 2 1390 51.07% 20.13%
17 2014-09-20 61.1 @ Alloa Athletic 1 1280 11.01% Rangers 1 1608 72.42% 16.57%
18 2014-10-25 61.1 @ Livingston 2 1267 27.33% Queen of the South 2 1393 52.65% 20.02%
19 2014-10-26 61.0 @ Hibernian 1 1396 27.25% Heart of Midlothian 1 1522 52.74% 20.01%
20 2015-03-28 59.8 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1218 41.36% Livingston 2 1238 38.18% 20.46%
21 2015-05-02 59.8 @ Dumbarton 2 1184 36.34% Raith Rovers 2 1239 43.22% 20.44%
22 2015-03-14 58.1 @ Rangers 1 1525 73.49% Livingston 1 1244 10.28% 16.23%
23 2015-04-15 58.0 @ Livingston 1 1255 14.15% Rangers 1 1529 68.11% 17.74%
24 2015-01-17 57.8 @ Falkirk 1 1396 40.84% Queen of the South 1 1419 38.69% 20.47%
25 2015-01-31 57.2 @ Hibernian 1 1484 69.78% Raith Rovers 1 1252 12.90% 17.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2015-02-28 27.8 @ Heart of Midlothian 10 1579 81.68% Cowdenbeath 0 1162 5.39% 12.94%
2 2015-01-17 28.0 @ Hibernian 5 1459 72.14% Cowdenbeath 0 1196 11.20% 16.66%
3 2015-03-14 28.5 @ Heart of Midlothian 4 1589 78.78% Dumbarton 0 1225 6.96% 14.25%
4 2015-04-08 29.0 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1609 80.31% Alloa Athletic 0 1218 6.11% 13.58%
5 2015-02-21 29.1 @ Hibernian 3 1501 73.34% Dumbarton 0 1222 10.38% 16.28%
6 2015-03-14 29.8 Hibernian 2 1513 74.48% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1156 9.62% 15.90%
7 2014-11-04 30.0 Rangers 3 1601 76.42% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1216 8.38% 15.20%
8 2015-01-31 30.2 Queen of the South 5 1405 63.10% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1185 18.14% 18.76%
9 2015-04-12 30.9 @ Rangers 4 1519 69.93% Raith Rovers 0 1284 12.79% 17.28%
10 2015-03-28 31.5 @ Rangers 4 1536 80.43% Cowdenbeath 1 1143 6.05% 13.53%
11 2014-12-20 31.6 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1557 75.65% Alloa Athletic 0 1244 8.86% 15.49%
12 2014-12-23 31.9 Heart of Midlothian 2 1560 73.34% @ Cowdenbeath 0 1220 10.38% 16.28%
13 2014-10-25 32.0 @ Falkirk 6 1356 58.53% Cowdenbeath 0 1241 22.03% 19.43%
14 2015-03-31 32.2 @ Falkirk 1 1400 71.90% Cowdenbeath 0 1140 11.37% 16.73%
15 2014-09-12 32.5 Rangers 4 1599 71.60% @ Raith Rovers 0 1282 11.59% 16.82%
16 2014-09-28 32.5 @ Heart of Midlothian 5 1474 63.66% Livingston 0 1310 17.68% 18.66%
17 2014-12-20 32.6 @ Rangers 2 1576 75.52% Livingston 0 1265 8.94% 15.54%
18 2014-12-06 32.9 @ Rangers 1 1596 80.13% Cowdenbeath 0 1209 6.21% 13.66%
19 2014-09-20 33.0 @ Heart of Midlothian 5 1466 70.10% Cowdenbeath 1 1229 12.66% 17.24%
20 2015-03-21 33.0 @ Queen of the South 4 1424 72.80% Cowdenbeath 1 1152 10.74% 16.45%
21 2014-11-08 33.1 @ Queen of the South 3 1392 57.87% Dumbarton 0 1283 22.62% 19.52%
22 2014-12-13 33.3 @ Hibernian 2 1403 62.45% Alloa Athletic 0 1252 18.68% 18.87%
23 2014-10-25 33.6 Rangers 3 1594 70.50% @ Dumbarton 0 1291 12.37% 17.13%
24 2015-05-02 33.6 @ Alloa Athletic 3 1230 51.46% Cowdenbeath 0 1175 28.44% 20.10%
25 2014-08-23 33.8 Heart of Midlothian 4 1435 55.19% @ Raith Rovers 0 1288 25.01% 19.80%