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2016-17 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Hibernian

71 pts

Relegated

Ayr United

33 pts

Raith Rovers · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Dumbarton

4.45 points above expected

39 points · 34.55 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Raith Rovers

7.42 points below expected

39 points · 46.42 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Hibernian Promoted 36 19 14 3 71 59 25 +34 69.58 +1.42
2 Falkirk 36 16 12 8 60 58 40 +18 60.99 -0.99
3 Dundee United 36 15 12 9 57 50 42 +8 62.30 -5.30
4 Greenock Morton 36 13 13 10 52 44 41 +3 50.80 +1.20
5 Dunfermline Athletic 36 12 12 12 48 46 43 +3 47.60 +0.40
6 Queen of the South 36 11 10 15 43 46 52 -6 45.07 -2.07
7 St. Mirren 36 9 12 15 39 52 56 -4 40.03 -1.03
8 Dumbarton 36 9 12 15 39 46 56 -10 34.55 +4.45
9 Raith Rovers Relegated 36 10 9 17 39 35 52 -17 46.42 -7.42
10 Ayr United Relegated 36 7 12 17 33 33 62 -29 37.22 -4.22

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dumbarton 39 34.55 +4.45
2 Hibernian 71 69.58 +1.42
3 Greenock Morton 52 50.80 +1.20
4 Dunfermline Athletic 48 47.60 +0.40
5 Falkirk 60 60.99 -0.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Raith Rovers 39 46.42 -7.42
2 Dundee United 57 62.30 -5.30
3 Ayr United 33 37.22 -4.22
4 Queen of the South 43 45.07 -2.07
5 St. Mirren 39 40.03 -1.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 5 Aug 13 – Sep 17 1 in 92
2 Greenock Morton 4 Oct 1 – Nov 1 1 in 63
3 St. Mirren 3 Mar 15 – Apr 1 1 in 40
4 Hibernian 5 Aug 6 – Sep 10 1 in 31
5 Ayr United 2 Sep 10 – Sep 17 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 7 Oct 15 – Dec 6 1 in 1,818
2 Raith Rovers 6 Jan 2 – Feb 7 1 in 312
3 St. Mirren 6 Oct 15 – Dec 3 1 in 94
4 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Aug 13 – Sep 17 1 in 62
5 Dundee United 3 Mar 10 – Mar 18 1 in 59

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 9 Nov 19 – Jan 28 1 in 81
2 St. Mirren 7 Mar 11 – Apr 15 1 in 70
3 Dundee United 12 Sep 24 – Dec 24 1 in 33
4 Queen of the South 8 Aug 6 – Oct 1 1 in 32
5 Greenock Morton 7 Oct 1 – Nov 19 1 in 28

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 15 Nov 5 – Feb 28 1 in 951
2 Queen of the South 13 Sep 24 – Dec 31 1 in 414
3 St. Mirren 14 Aug 6 – Dec 3 1 in 171
4 Greenock Morton 9 Mar 25 – May 6 1 in 127
5 Ayr United 15 Oct 29 – Feb 25 1 in 117

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Hibernian 1544 71 +22 11 10.4 +0.6
Falkirk 1488 60 +8 9 9.2 -0.2
Dundee United 1412 57 +9 9 8.8 +0.2
Greenock Morton 1338 52 -64 2 7.8 -5.8
Dunfermline Athletic 1391 48 +22 9 6.8 +2.2
Queen of the South 1314 43 -15 4 6.0 -2.0
St. Mirren 1375 39 +55 8 5.2 +2.8
Raith Rovers 1254 39 -10 6 5.0 +1.0
Dumbarton 1280 39 -7 5 4.9 +0.1
Ayr United 1208 33 -28 2 4.4 -2.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AU DUM DU DA FAL GM HIB QOTS RR SM
Ayr United —
2-2-0
5.48
0-1-3
3.05
1-2-1
4.49
0-1-3
3.05
1-1-2
4.04
1-1-2
2.35
1-1-2
4.58
1-1-2
4.53
0-2-2
5.13
Dumbarton
0-2-2
5.44
 —
2-1-1
2.88
0-1-3
4.21
1-1-2
2.94
1-1-2
3.70
0-1-3
2.33
2-1-1
4.08
2-1-1
3.98
1-3-0
5.06
Dundee United
3-1-0
7.99
1-1-2
8.18
 —
3-1-0
7.03
1-1-2
5.38
1-3-0
6.74
1-1-2
4.66
1-2-1
7.23
1-2-1
7.24
3-0-1
7.59
Dunfermline Athletic
1-2-1
6.46
3-1-0
6.74
0-1-3
3.94
 —
0-1-3
3.87
3-0-1
4.99
0-2-2
3.28
1-2-1
5.75
2-1-1
5.09
2-2-0
6.44
Falkirk
3-1-0
7.99
2-1-1
8.11
2-1-1
5.55
3-1-0
7.10
 —
0-3-1
6.66
0-1-3
4.58
1-2-1
7.28
3-0-1
6.72
2-2-0
7.84
Greenock Morton
2-1-1
6.93
2-1-1
7.28
0-3-1
4.21
1-0-3
5.95
1-3-0
4.29
 —
0-3-1
3.57
3-0-1
6.15
3-0-1
6.27
1-2-1
6.54
Hibernian
2-1-1
8.80
3-1-0
8.82
2-1-1
6.27
2-2-0
7.74
3-1-0
6.36
1-3-0
7.42
 —
3-1-0
7.76
1-3-0
8.10
2-1-1
8.17
Queen of the South
2-1-1
6.36
1-1-2
6.88
1-2-1
3.75
1-2-1
5.18
1-2-1
3.72
1-0-3
4.82
0-1-3
3.28
 —
2-1-1
5.82
2-0-2
6.25
Raith Rovers
2-1-1
6.42
1-1-2
6.99
1-2-1
3.74
1-1-2
5.86
1-0-3
4.26
1-0-3
4.68
0-3-1
2.97
1-1-2
5.12
 —
2-0-2
5.80
St. Mirren
2-2-0
5.80
0-3-1
5.88
1-0-3
3.43
0-2-2
4.51
0-2-2
3.18
1-2-1
4.42
1-1-2
2.90
2-0-2
4.69
2-0-2
5.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.61 +10.9
Allowed 0.94 -10.7
Differential 0.93 +6.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.89%6.11%2.50%1.11%0.56%25.83%
18.89%17.78%6.94%2.78%1.67%0.28%38.33%
26.11%6.94%7.22%1.39%0.56%0.28%22.50%
32.50%2.78%1.39%0.56%0.56%—7.78%
41.11%1.67%0.56%0.56%0.56%—4.44%
5+0.56%0.28%0.28%———1.11%
Total25.83%38.33%22.50%7.78%4.44%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.30 1.30 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.14 1.64
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%13.89%5.56%2.78%—36.11%
18.33%19.44%8.33%—8.33%—44.44%
2—8.33%2.78%——2.78%13.89%
32.78%—————2.78%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%33.33%25.00%5.56%13.89%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.72 -0.81
SD 0.94 1.47 1.64
CV 1.02 0.85 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%8.33%2.78%——27.78%
111.11%8.33%11.11%——2.78%33.33%
2—8.33%16.67%2.78%——27.78%
3—2.78%——2.78%—5.56%
42.78%———2.78%—5.56%
5+———————
Total19.44%30.56%36.11%5.56%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.56 -0.28
SD 1.11 1.21 1.43
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%—5.56%——22.22%
113.89%16.67%2.78%2.78%——36.11%
22.78%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—25.00%
35.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%——13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%41.67%11.11%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.17 +0.22
SD 1.08 1.11 1.46
CV 0.78 0.95 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%5.56%———25.00%
111.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
28.33%2.78%8.33%———19.44%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total27.78%36.11%25.00%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.19 +0.08
SD 1.21 0.98 1.34
CV 0.95 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%2.78%———8.33%
111.11%19.44%11.11%———41.67%
211.11%8.33%13.89%—2.78%—36.11%
32.78%5.56%————8.33%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total25.00%44.44%27.78%—2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.11 +0.50
SD 0.96 0.89 1.34
CV 0.60 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%—19.44%
113.89%27.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%—55.56%
25.56%8.33%2.78%———16.67%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total27.78%47.22%13.89%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.14 +0.08
SD 1.07 1.07 1.70
CV 0.88 0.94 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%2.78%———13.89%
111.11%25.00%2.78%———38.89%
28.33%11.11%5.56%———25.00%
38.33%2.78%2.78%———13.89%
48.33%—————8.33%
5+———————
Total44.44%41.67%13.89%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.69 +0.94
SD 1.15 0.71 1.45
CV 0.70 1.02 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%5.56%2.78%2.78%2.78%38.89%
12.78%8.33%5.56%—2.78%—19.44%
25.56%5.56%8.33%2.78%——22.22%
35.56%5.56%—2.78%——13.89%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%38.89%22.22%8.33%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.44 -0.17
SD 1.28 1.25 1.89
CV 1.00 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%2.78%44.44%
12.78%11.11%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
211.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
3—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%36.11%19.44%11.11%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.44 -0.47
SD 1.08 1.30 1.75
CV 1.11 0.90 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%11.11%2.78%——22.22%
12.78%25.00%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
28.33%—5.56%2.78%——16.67%
3——5.56%—2.78%—8.33%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total16.67%33.33%30.56%16.67%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.56 -0.11
SD 1.40 1.05 1.79
CV 0.97 0.68 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Hibernian 1544 71 69.58 +1.42 62.0% 52 57 64 69 75 80 86
Falkirk 1488 60 60.99 -0.99 46.0% 36 49 56 61 66 72 79
Dundee United 1412 57 62.30 -5.30 28.0% 46 50 57 62 68 75 86
Dunfermline Athletic 1391 48 47.60 +0.40 59.0% 32 36 42 47 53 61 75
St. Mirren 1375 39 40.03 -1.03 45.0% 23 27 35 40 45 51 67
Greenock Morton 1338 52 50.80 +1.20 60.0% 31 35 46 51 55 63 70
Queen of the South 1314 43 45.07 -2.07 41.0% 25 33 40 45 49 58 66
Dumbarton 1280 39 34.55 +4.45 75.0% 14 23 30 34 39 45 52
Raith Rovers 1254 39 46.42 -7.42 15.0% 31 36 41 46 52 59 65
Ayr United 1208 33 37.22 -4.22 37.0% 22 25 32 37 40 50 58

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.56%
No Edge
38.89%32.78%28.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.81 Elo pts.
250 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.2
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
62%
Hibernian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.210.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.05 * Some Luck: 6.05 to 9.07 * Lucky: 9.07 to 12.1 * Wild Swing: 12.1 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.02 * Close: 1.02 to 1.53 * Off: 1.53 to 2.04 * Way Off: 2.04 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.3 * A Surprise: 1.3 to 2.08 * Several Surprises: 2.08 to 2.86 * Many Surprises: 2.86 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.35 points
As Expected
07.5619
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.273
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
75.00%
Dumbarton
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
15.00%
Raith Rovers
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.32

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 104.14
1.58
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Clear Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%64%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Slight Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.24
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.73
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
22%
As Expected
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.02
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.94
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.065
Well Within Noise
00.1350.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Hibernian62.00%22.00%6.00%10.00%——————
Falkirk20.00%24.00%34.00%11.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%—1.00%—
Dundee United14.00%39.00%27.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%————
Greenock Morton2.00%10.00%10.00%29.00%17.00%9.00%5.00%10.00%4.00%4.00%
Dunfermline Athletic2.00%1.00%10.00%13.00%17.00%23.00%17.00%6.00%9.00%2.00%
Queen of the South—1.00%5.00%11.00%14.00%21.00%26.00%7.00%12.00%3.00%
St. Mirren——1.00%4.00%9.00%17.00%15.00%20.00%16.00%18.00%
Dumbarton————3.00%4.00%9.00%16.00%27.00%41.00%
Raith Rovers—2.00%5.00%11.00%22.00%15.00%19.00%15.00%8.00%3.00%
Ayr United—1.00%2.00%1.00%4.00%7.00%7.00%26.00%23.00%29.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Hibernian 62.00% 38.00% — —
Falkirk 20.00% 69.00% 11.00% —
Dundee United 14.00% 76.00% 10.00% —
Dunfermline Athletic 2.00% 24.00% 72.00% 2.00%
Greenock Morton 2.00% 49.00% 45.00% 4.00%
Queen of the South — 17.00% 80.00% 3.00%
Raith Rovers — 18.00% 79.00% 3.00%
St. Mirren — 5.00% 77.00% 18.00%
Ayr United — 4.00% 67.00% 29.00%
Dumbarton — — 59.00% 41.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2016-08-06 Dumbarton W 4-350.2 1354 1260 52.66% 25.52% 21.82%+0.53 +5.3 3
2016-08-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 3-450.2 1260 1354 21.82% 25.52% 52.66%-0.53 -5.3 0
2016-08-06 Greenock Morton D 1-153.8 1348 1325 43.67% 26.71% 29.62%+0.24 -0.7 1
2016-08-06 @ St. Mirren D 1-153.8 1325 1348 29.62% 26.71% 43.67%-0.24 +0.7 1
2016-08-06 Hibernian L 1-252.5 1430 1445 38.20% 26.96% 34.84%+0.08 -9.0 0
2016-08-06 @ Falkirk W 2-152.5 1445 1430 34.84% 26.96% 38.20%-0.08 +9.0 3
2016-08-06 Queen of the South D 1-155.7 1434 1345 52.05% 25.63% 22.32%+0.51 -1.5 1
2016-08-06 @ Dundee United D 1-155.7 1345 1434 22.32% 25.63% 52.05%-0.51 +1.5 1
2016-08-06 Raith Rovers L 0-237.2 1303 1360 32.40% 26.89% 40.71%-0.08 -15.8 0
2016-08-06 @ Ayr United W 2-037.2 1360 1303 40.71% 26.89% 32.40%+0.08 +15.9 3
2016-08-13 Ayr United W 4-138.1 1346 1287 48.29% 26.23% 25.48%+0.38 +16.0 4
2016-08-13 @ Queen of the South L 1-438.1 1287 1346 25.48% 26.23% 48.29%-0.38 -16.1 0
2016-08-13 Dundee United W 1-047.5 1254 1433 19.23% 24.79% 55.98%-0.57 +12.9 3
2016-08-13 @ Dumbarton L 0-147.5 1433 1254 55.98% 24.79% 19.23%+0.57 -12.9 1
2016-08-13 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-145.5 1454 1359 52.72% 25.51% 21.77%+0.53 +5.7 6
2016-08-13 @ Hibernian L 1-245.5 1359 1454 21.77% 25.51% 52.72%-0.53 -5.7 3
2016-08-13 Falkirk D 1-154.9 1325 1421 27.59% 26.51% 45.90%-0.23 +0.9 2
2016-08-13 @ Greenock Morton D 1-154.9 1421 1325 45.90% 26.51% 27.59%+0.23 -0.9 1
2016-08-13 St. Mirren W 3-142.8 1376 1348 44.32% 26.66% 29.02%+0.26 +12.6 6
2016-08-13 @ Raith Rovers L 1-342.8 1348 1376 29.02% 26.66% 44.32%-0.26 -12.6 1
2016-08-20 Ayr United W 3-030.4 1420 1271 58.69% 24.07% 17.25%+0.74 +13.4 4
2016-08-20 @ Dundee United L 0-330.4 1271 1420 17.25% 24.07% 58.69%-0.74 -13.4 0
2016-08-20 Dumbarton D 1-153.3 1326 1267 48.32% 26.23% 25.45%+0.38 -1.2 3
2016-08-20 @ Greenock Morton D 1-153.3 1267 1326 25.45% 26.23% 48.32%-0.38 +1.2 4
2016-08-20 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-036.9 1389 1354 45.20% 26.58% 28.22%+0.29 +14.2 9
2016-08-20 @ Raith Rovers L 0-236.9 1354 1389 28.22% 26.58% 45.20%-0.29 -14.2 3
2016-08-20 Falkirk W 2-041.5 1362 1420 32.34% 26.88% 40.78%-0.08 +18.8 7
2016-08-20 @ Queen of the South L 0-241.5 1420 1362 40.78% 26.88% 32.34%+0.08 -18.8 1
2016-08-20 Hibernian L 0-236.5 1335 1460 24.27% 26.03% 49.70%-0.35 -12.6 1
2016-08-20 @ St. Mirren W 2-036.5 1460 1335 49.70% 26.03% 24.27%+0.35 +12.6 9
2016-08-27 Dumbarton W 1-035.9 1401 1268 57.01% 24.53% 18.46%+0.68 +5.2 4
2016-08-27 @ Falkirk L 0-135.9 1268 1401 18.46% 24.53% 57.01%-0.68 -5.2 4
2016-08-27 Greenock Morton W 4-032.4 1473 1325 58.61% 24.09% 17.30%+0.74 +17.6 12
2016-08-27 @ Hibernian L 0-432.4 1325 1473 17.30% 24.09% 58.61%-0.74 -17.6 3
2016-08-27 Queen of the South L 0-142.1 1339 1381 34.50% 26.95% 38.55%-0.02 -8.8 3
2016-08-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-042.1 1381 1339 38.55% 26.95% 34.50%+0.02 +8.8 10
2016-08-27 Raith Rovers D 2-262.7 1433 1403 44.53% 26.64% 28.83%+0.27 -0.6 5
2016-08-27 @ Dundee United D 2-262.7 1403 1433 28.83% 26.64% 44.53%-0.27 +0.6 10
2016-08-27 St. Mirren D 1-153.0 1258 1322 31.42% 26.83% 41.75%-0.11 +0.5 1
2016-08-27 @ Ayr United D 1-153.0 1322 1258 41.75% 26.83% 31.42%+0.11 -0.5 2
2016-09-10 Dundee United L 1-342.8 1331 1432 26.83% 26.42% 46.75%-0.26 -11.8 3
2016-09-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-142.8 1432 1331 46.75% 26.42% 26.83%+0.26 +11.8 8
2016-09-10 Falkirk L 0-241.9 1404 1406 40.03% 26.91% 33.05%+0.14 -18.5 10
2016-09-10 @ Raith Rovers W 2-041.9 1406 1404 33.05% 26.91% 40.03%-0.14 +18.5 7
2016-09-10 Greenock Morton W 2-148.1 1258 1308 33.48% 26.93% 39.60%-0.05 +9.2 4
2016-09-10 @ Ayr United L 1-248.1 1308 1258 39.60% 26.93% 33.48%+0.05 -9.2 3
2016-09-10 Hibernian L 0-135.9 1263 1490 15.54% 23.30% 61.16%-0.76 -4.4 4
2016-09-10 @ Dumbarton W 1-035.9 1490 1263 61.16% 23.30% 15.54%+0.76 +4.4 15
2016-09-10 Queen of the South L 1-343.3 1322 1390 30.98% 26.81% 42.21%-0.12 -13.3 2
2016-09-10 @ St. Mirren W 3-143.3 1390 1322 42.21% 26.81% 30.98%+0.12 +13.3 13
2016-09-17 Ayr United L 1-256.6 1495 1268 66.41% 21.33% 12.26%+1.06 -14.1 15
2016-09-17 @ Hibernian W 2-156.6 1268 1495 12.26% 21.33% 66.41%-1.06 +14.1 7
2016-09-17 Dundee United W 3-148.0 1425 1444 37.67% 26.97% 35.37%+0.07 +14.7 10
2016-09-17 @ Falkirk L 1-348.0 1444 1425 35.37% 26.97% 37.67%-0.07 -14.6 8
2016-09-17 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-147.2 1298 1319 37.53% 26.97% 35.50%+0.07 +8.5 6
2016-09-17 @ Greenock Morton L 1-247.2 1319 1298 35.50% 26.97% 37.53%-0.07 -8.5 3
2016-09-17 Raith Rovers W 3-144.4 1403 1385 42.92% 26.76% 30.31%+0.22 +13.0 16
2016-09-17 @ Queen of the South L 1-344.4 1385 1403 30.31% 26.76% 42.92%-0.22 -13.0 10
2016-09-17 St. Mirren D 1-152.9 1259 1309 33.35% 26.92% 39.72%-0.05 +0.3 5
2016-09-17 @ Dumbarton D 1-152.9 1309 1259 39.72% 26.92% 33.35%+0.05 -0.3 3
2016-09-24 Ayr United W 2-032.2 1440 1282 59.68% 23.77% 16.55%+0.78 +8.9 13
2016-09-24 @ Falkirk L 0-232.2 1282 1440 16.55% 23.77% 59.68%-0.78 -8.9 7
2016-09-24 Dumbarton W 3-247.2 1372 1259 54.81% 25.07% 20.13%+0.60 +5.1 13
2016-09-24 @ Raith Rovers L 2-347.2 1259 1372 20.13% 25.07% 54.81%-0.60 -5.1 5
2016-09-24 Greenock Morton W 2-143.0 1430 1307 55.91% 24.81% 19.28%+0.64 +5.1 11
2016-09-24 @ Dundee United L 1-243.0 1307 1430 19.28% 24.81% 55.91%-0.64 -5.1 6
2016-09-24 Hibernian D 0-053.6 1416 1481 31.44% 26.84% 41.73%-0.11 +0.6 17
2016-09-24 @ Queen of the South D 0-053.6 1481 1416 41.73% 26.84% 31.44%+0.11 -0.6 16
2016-09-24 St. Mirren W 4-353.8 1310 1308 40.68% 26.89% 32.44%+0.15 +7.3 6
2016-09-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 3-453.8 1308 1310 32.44% 26.89% 40.68%-0.15 -7.3 3
2016-10-01 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-048.2 1273 1318 34.07% 26.94% 38.98%-0.03 +0.3 8
2016-10-01 @ Ayr United D 0-048.2 1318 1273 38.98% 26.94% 34.07%+0.03 -0.3 7
2016-10-01 Falkirk D 1-155.2 1301 1448 22.03% 25.57% 52.40%-0.44 +1.6 4
2016-10-01 @ St. Mirren D 1-155.2 1448 1301 52.40% 25.57% 22.03%+0.44 -1.6 14
2016-10-01 Queen of the South D 0-049.4 1254 1417 20.58% 25.20% 54.22%-0.50 +2.0 6
2016-10-01 @ Dumbarton D 0-049.4 1417 1254 54.22% 25.20% 20.58%+0.50 -2.0 18
2016-10-01 Raith Rovers W 1-044.1 1302 1377 30.04% 26.74% 43.22%-0.15 +10.4 9
2016-10-01 @ Greenock Morton L 0-144.1 1377 1302 43.22% 26.74% 30.04%+0.15 -10.4 13
2016-10-02 Dundee United D 1-159.2 1480 1435 46.54% 26.44% 27.02%+0.33 -1.0 17
2016-10-02 @ Hibernian D 1-159.2 1435 1480 27.02% 26.44% 46.54%-0.33 +1.0 12
2016-10-15 Ayr United L 0-336.3 1256 1273 37.99% 26.96% 35.05%+0.08 -25.9 6
2016-10-15 @ Dumbarton W 3-036.3 1273 1256 35.05% 26.96% 37.99%-0.08 +25.9 11
2016-10-15 Dundee United L 0-235.2 1303 1436 23.44% 25.87% 50.69%-0.39 -12.2 4
2016-10-15 @ St. Mirren W 2-035.2 1436 1303 50.69% 25.87% 23.44%+0.39 +12.2 15
2016-10-15 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-143.3 1447 1317 56.65% 24.62% 18.73%+0.67 +5.0 17
2016-10-15 @ Falkirk L 1-243.3 1317 1447 18.73% 24.62% 56.65%-0.67 -5.0 7
2016-10-15 Greenock Morton L 0-543.3 1415 1312 53.61% 25.33% 21.06%+0.56 -55.0 18
2016-10-15 @ Queen of the South W 5-043.3 1312 1415 21.06% 25.33% 53.61%-0.56 +55.0 12
2016-10-15 Hibernian D 0-052.3 1367 1479 25.63% 26.25% 48.11%-0.30 +1.3 14
2016-10-15 @ Raith Rovers D 0-052.3 1479 1367 48.11% 26.25% 25.63%+0.30 -1.3 18
2016-10-22 Dumbarton W 2-139.3 1448 1230 65.57% 21.68% 12.75%+1.02 +3.4 18
2016-10-22 @ Dundee United L 1-239.3 1230 1448 12.75% 21.68% 65.57%-1.02 -3.4 6
2016-10-22 Hibernian L 1-341.0 1312 1478 20.35% 25.13% 54.52%-0.52 -9.3 7
2016-10-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-141.0 1478 1312 54.52% 25.13% 20.35%+0.52 +9.3 21
2016-10-22 Queen of the South W 1-043.4 1299 1360 31.91% 26.86% 41.23%-0.10 +10.1 14
2016-10-22 @ Ayr United L 0-143.4 1360 1299 41.23% 26.86% 31.91%+0.10 -10.1 18
2016-10-22 Raith Rovers L 2-454.9 1452 1368 51.39% 25.75% 22.86%+0.48 -17.6 17
2016-10-22 @ Falkirk W 4-254.9 1368 1452 22.86% 25.75% 51.39%-0.48 +17.6 17
2016-10-29 Ayr United W 2-144.5 1367 1309 48.19% 26.24% 25.57%+0.38 +6.6 15
2016-10-29 @ Greenock Morton L 1-244.5 1309 1367 25.57% 26.24% 48.19%-0.38 -6.6 14
2016-10-29 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-258.8 1227 1303 29.90% 26.73% 43.37%-0.16 +0.5 7
2016-10-29 @ Dumbarton D 2-258.8 1303 1227 43.37% 26.73% 29.90%+0.16 -0.5 8
2016-10-29 Falkirk W 1-044.6 1451 1434 42.78% 26.77% 30.44%+0.22 +8.0 21
2016-10-29 @ Dundee United L 0-144.6 1434 1451 30.44% 26.77% 42.78%-0.22 -8.0 17
2016-10-29 Queen of the South W 1-040.3 1385 1350 45.28% 26.57% 28.15%+0.29 +7.5 20
2016-10-29 @ Raith Rovers L 0-140.3 1350 1385 28.15% 26.57% 45.28%-0.29 -7.5 18
2016-10-29 St. Mirren W 2-032.0 1487 1290 63.57% 22.45% 13.97%+0.94 +7.5 24
2016-10-29 @ Hibernian L 0-232.0 1290 1487 13.97% 22.45% 63.57%-0.94 -7.5 4
2016-11-01 St. Mirren W 3-139.6 1374 1283 52.22% 25.60% 22.18%+0.51 +10.1 18
2016-11-01 @ Greenock Morton L 1-339.6 1283 1374 22.18% 25.60% 52.22%-0.51 -10.1 4
2016-11-05 Dumbarton L 0-143.9 1273 1227 46.60% 26.44% 26.96%+0.33 -11.1 4
2016-11-05 @ St. Mirren W 1-043.9 1227 1273 26.96% 26.44% 46.60%-0.33 +11.1 10
2016-11-05 Dundee United L 1-440.4 1342 1459 25.12% 26.17% 48.70%-0.32 -15.9 18
2016-11-05 @ Queen of the South W 4-140.4 1459 1342 48.70% 26.17% 25.12%+0.32 +15.8 24
2016-11-05 Greenock Morton D 1-156.2 1426 1384 46.16% 26.48% 27.36%+0.32 -0.9 18
2016-11-05 @ Falkirk D 1-156.2 1384 1426 27.36% 26.48% 46.16%-0.32 +0.9 19
2016-11-05 Hibernian L 0-332.6 1302 1495 18.11% 24.40% 57.49%-0.62 -14.0 14
2016-11-05 @ Ayr United W 3-032.6 1495 1302 57.49% 24.40% 18.11%+0.62 +14.0 27
2016-11-05 Raith Rovers D 0-049.2 1303 1393 28.17% 26.58% 45.25%-0.21 +1.0 9
2016-11-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-049.2 1393 1303 45.25% 26.58% 28.17%+0.21 -1.0 21
2016-11-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-036.4 1475 1303 61.11% 23.31% 15.57%+0.84 +4.4 27
2016-11-08 @ Dundee United L 0-136.4 1303 1475 15.57% 23.31% 61.11%-0.84 -4.4 9
2016-11-12 Falkirk D 1-160.1 1509 1425 51.33% 25.76% 22.91%+0.48 -1.5 28
2016-11-12 @ Hibernian D 1-160.1 1425 1509 22.91% 25.76% 51.33%-0.48 +1.5 19
2016-11-12 Greenock Morton L 0-233.3 1238 1385 22.10% 25.58% 52.31%-0.44 -11.6 10
2016-11-12 @ Dumbarton W 2-033.3 1385 1238 52.31% 25.58% 22.10%+0.44 +11.6 22
2016-11-19 Dundee United D 0-053.0 1396 1480 29.05% 26.66% 44.29%-0.19 +0.9 23
2016-11-19 @ Greenock Morton D 0-053.0 1480 1396 44.29% 26.66% 29.05%+0.19 -0.8 28
2016-11-19 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-140.8 1262 1299 35.12% 26.96% 37.91%+0.00 -8.9 4
2016-11-19 @ St. Mirren W 1-040.8 1299 1262 37.91% 26.96% 35.12%+0.00 +8.9 12
2016-11-19 Falkirk L 0-138.2 1288 1427 22.92% 25.76% 51.32%-0.41 -6.4 14
2016-11-19 @ Ayr United W 1-038.2 1427 1288 51.32% 25.76% 22.92%+0.41 +6.3 22
2016-11-19 Queen of the South W 4-032.3 1507 1326 62.02% 23.01% 14.97%+0.87 +15.2 31
2016-11-19 @ Hibernian L 0-432.3 1326 1507 14.97% 23.01% 62.02%-0.87 -15.2 18
2016-11-19 Raith Rovers D 0-048.9 1227 1392 20.35% 25.13% 54.52%-0.52 +2.0 11
2016-11-19 @ Dumbarton D 0-048.9 1392 1227 54.52% 25.13% 20.35%+0.52 -2.0 22
2016-11-22 Ayr United D 1-154.2 1390 1282 54.23% 25.19% 20.58%+0.58 -1.8 23
2016-11-22 @ Raith Rovers D 1-154.2 1282 1390 20.58% 25.19% 54.23%-0.58 +1.8 15
2016-12-02 Hibernian W 1-051.3 1479 1522 34.23% 26.95% 38.82%-0.03 +9.6 31
2016-12-02 @ Dundee United L 0-151.3 1522 1479 38.82% 26.95% 34.23%+0.03 -9.6 31
2016-12-03 Ayr United D 1-153.1 1308 1284 43.73% 26.71% 29.56%+0.24 -0.7 13
2016-12-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-153.1 1284 1308 29.56% 26.71% 43.73%-0.24 +0.7 16
2016-12-03 Dumbarton L 1-251.1 1311 1229 51.23% 25.78% 22.99%+0.48 -11.3 18
2016-12-03 @ Queen of the South W 2-151.1 1229 1311 22.99% 25.78% 51.23%-0.48 +11.3 14
2016-12-03 St. Mirren W 3-137.0 1433 1253 61.96% 23.03% 15.01%+0.87 +7.0 25
2016-12-03 @ Falkirk L 1-337.0 1253 1433 15.01% 23.03% 61.96%-0.87 -7.0 4
2016-12-06 St. Mirren L 2-355.3 1300 1246 47.66% 26.31% 26.03%+0.36 -10.1 18
2016-12-06 @ Queen of the South W 3-255.3 1246 1300 26.03% 26.31% 47.66%-0.36 +10.1 7
2016-12-10 Dumbarton W 2-029.5 1513 1240 70.39% 19.55% 10.06%+1.24 +5.2 34
2016-12-10 @ Hibernian L 0-229.5 1240 1513 10.06% 19.55% 70.39%-1.24 -5.2 14
2016-12-10 Dundee United L 0-136.9 1285 1488 17.20% 24.05% 58.75%-0.67 -4.9 16
2016-12-10 @ Ayr United W 1-036.9 1488 1285 58.75% 24.05% 17.20%+0.67 +4.9 34
2016-12-10 Greenock Morton W 2-150.9 1307 1397 28.24% 26.58% 45.18%-0.21 +10.2 16
2016-12-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-250.9 1397 1307 45.18% 26.58% 28.24%+0.21 -10.2 23
2016-12-10 Queen of the South D 2-261.3 1440 1290 58.90% 24.00% 17.10%+0.75 -1.7 26
2016-12-10 @ Falkirk D 2-261.3 1290 1440 17.10% 24.00% 58.90%-0.75 +1.7 19
2016-12-10 Raith Rovers W 1-045.7 1256 1388 23.52% 25.89% 50.59%-0.38 +11.9 10
2016-12-10 @ St. Mirren L 0-145.7 1388 1256 50.59% 25.89% 23.52%+0.38 -11.9 23
2016-12-17 Ayr United D 1-152.8 1268 1280 38.76% 26.95% 34.30%+0.10 -0.2 11
2016-12-17 @ St. Mirren D 1-152.8 1280 1268 34.30% 26.95% 38.76%-0.10 +0.2 17
2016-12-17 Dundee United D 0-053.0 1376 1493 25.15% 26.18% 48.67%-0.32 +1.3 24
2016-12-17 @ Raith Rovers D 0-053.0 1493 1376 48.67% 26.18% 25.15%+0.32 -1.3 35
2016-12-17 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-259.1 1291 1317 36.71% 26.97% 36.31%+0.04 -0.0 20
2016-12-17 @ Queen of the South D 2-259.1 1317 1291 36.31% 26.97% 36.71%-0.04 +0.0 17
2016-12-17 Falkirk W 2-153.8 1235 1438 17.22% 24.05% 58.73%-0.67 +12.7 17
2016-12-17 @ Dumbarton L 1-253.8 1438 1235 58.73% 24.05% 17.22%+0.67 -12.7 26
2016-12-17 Hibernian D 1-159.0 1387 1518 23.65% 25.91% 50.43%-0.38 +1.4 24
2016-12-17 @ Greenock Morton D 1-159.0 1518 1387 50.43% 25.91% 23.65%+0.38 -1.4 35
2016-12-24 Dumbarton D 4-464.0 1280 1247 44.85% 26.61% 28.54%+0.28 -0.4 18
2016-12-24 @ Ayr United D 4-464.0 1247 1280 28.54% 26.61% 44.85%-0.28 +0.4 18
2016-12-24 Queen of the South W 1-037.3 1388 1291 52.95% 25.46% 21.59%+0.54 +6.0 27
2016-12-24 @ Greenock Morton L 0-137.3 1291 1388 21.59% 25.46% 52.95%-0.54 -6.0 20
2016-12-24 Raith Rovers D 1-159.2 1517 1378 57.68% 24.35% 17.97%+0.70 -2.1 36
2016-12-24 @ Hibernian D 1-159.2 1378 1517 17.97% 24.35% 57.68%-0.70 +2.1 25
2016-12-24 St. Mirren W 2-140.3 1492 1268 66.16% 21.44% 12.41%+1.05 +3.3 38
2016-12-24 @ Dundee United L 1-240.3 1268 1492 12.41% 21.44% 66.16%-1.05 -3.3 11
2016-12-26 Falkirk D 1-154.9 1317 1426 26.11% 26.32% 47.56%-0.29 +1.1 18
2016-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-154.9 1426 1317 47.56% 26.32% 26.11%+0.29 -1.1 27
2016-12-31 Ayr United D 0-048.1 1285 1279 41.24% 26.86% 31.90%+0.17 -0.5 21
2016-12-31 @ Queen of the South D 0-048.1 1279 1285 31.90% 26.86% 41.24%-0.17 +0.5 19
2016-12-31 Dundee United W 1-049.8 1248 1495 14.24% 22.60% 63.16%-0.84 +14.3 21
2016-12-31 @ Dumbarton L 0-149.8 1495 1248 63.16% 22.60% 14.24%+0.84 -14.3 38
2016-12-31 Greenock Morton D 1-153.9 1264 1394 23.75% 25.93% 50.31%-0.37 +1.4 12
2016-12-31 @ St. Mirren D 1-153.9 1394 1264 50.31% 25.93% 23.75%+0.37 -1.4 28
2016-12-31 Hibernian L 1-251.6 1425 1515 28.23% 26.58% 45.19%-0.21 -7.1 27
2016-12-31 @ Falkirk W 2-151.6 1515 1425 45.19% 26.58% 28.23%+0.21 +7.1 39
2017-01-02 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-242.2 1380 1319 48.59% 26.19% 25.22%+0.39 -21.6 25
2017-01-02 @ Raith Rovers W 2-042.2 1319 1380 25.22% 26.19% 48.59%-0.39 +21.7 21
2017-01-06 Dundee United W 3-042.6 1522 1481 45.94% 26.51% 27.55%+0.31 +20.3 42
2017-01-06 @ Hibernian L 0-342.6 1481 1522 27.55% 26.51% 45.94%-0.31 -20.3 38
2017-01-07 Dumbarton W 2-141.7 1393 1262 56.81% 24.58% 18.61%+0.67 +5.0 31
2017-01-07 @ Greenock Morton L 1-241.7 1262 1393 18.61% 24.58% 56.81%-0.67 -5.0 21
2017-01-07 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-236.7 1280 1340 31.98% 26.86% 41.15%-0.09 -15.7 19
2017-01-07 @ Ayr United W 2-036.7 1340 1280 41.15% 26.86% 31.98%+0.09 +15.7 24
2017-01-07 Falkirk L 1-442.2 1358 1417 32.11% 26.87% 41.01%-0.09 -19.3 25
2017-01-07 @ Raith Rovers W 4-142.2 1417 1358 41.01% 26.87% 32.11%+0.09 +19.3 30
2017-01-07 Queen of the South L 0-336.3 1266 1285 37.71% 26.97% 35.32%+0.07 -25.8 12
2017-01-07 @ St. Mirren W 3-036.3 1285 1266 35.32% 26.97% 37.71%-0.07 +25.8 24
2017-01-14 Ayr United D 1-155.2 1437 1264 61.19% 23.29% 15.52%+0.84 -2.5 31
2017-01-14 @ Falkirk D 1-155.2 1264 1437 15.52% 23.29% 61.19%-0.84 +2.5 20
2017-01-14 Hibernian L 0-135.1 1257 1542 12.12% 21.23% 66.65%-0.99 -3.4 21
2017-01-14 @ Dumbarton W 1-035.1 1542 1257 66.65% 21.23% 12.12%+0.99 +3.4 45
2017-01-14 Queen of the South D 3-365.8 1461 1311 58.87% 24.01% 17.12%+0.75 -1.4 39
2017-01-14 @ Dundee United D 3-365.8 1311 1461 17.12% 24.01% 58.87%-0.75 +1.4 25
2017-01-14 Raith Rovers W 2-035.9 1398 1339 48.31% 26.23% 25.46%+0.38 +13.1 34
2017-01-14 @ Greenock Morton L 0-235.9 1339 1398 25.46% 26.23% 48.31%-0.38 -13.1 25
2017-01-14 St. Mirren D 1-153.7 1356 1240 55.14% 24.99% 19.87%+0.61 -1.9 25
2017-01-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-153.7 1240 1356 19.87% 24.99% 55.14%-0.61 +1.9 13
2017-01-21 Queen of the South L 1-245.8 1254 1312 32.26% 26.88% 40.86%-0.09 -7.9 21
2017-01-21 @ Dumbarton W 2-145.8 1312 1254 40.86% 26.88% 32.26%+0.09 +7.9 28
2017-01-28 Dumbarton L 1-347.7 1326 1246 50.91% 25.84% 23.26%+0.47 -19.5 25
2017-01-28 @ Raith Rovers W 3-147.7 1246 1326 23.26% 25.84% 50.91%-0.47 +19.5 24
2017-01-28 Dundee United D 1-156.3 1354 1459 26.45% 26.37% 47.18%-0.27 +1.0 26
2017-01-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-156.3 1459 1354 47.18% 26.37% 26.45%+0.27 -1.0 40
2017-01-28 Falkirk L 1-241.7 1242 1434 18.08% 24.39% 57.53%-0.62 -4.8 13
2017-01-28 @ St. Mirren W 2-141.7 1434 1242 57.53% 24.39% 18.08%+0.62 +4.8 34
2017-01-28 Greenock Morton L 1-437.4 1267 1411 22.32% 25.63% 52.05%-0.43 -14.3 20
2017-01-28 @ Ayr United W 4-137.4 1411 1267 52.05% 25.63% 22.32%+0.43 +14.3 37
2017-01-28 Hibernian L 0-138.5 1320 1545 15.66% 23.36% 60.99%-0.76 -4.5 28
2017-01-28 @ Queen of the South W 1-038.5 1545 1320 60.99% 23.36% 15.66%+0.76 +4.5 48
2017-02-04 Ayr United D 1-158.4 1550 1252 72.38% 18.57% 9.05%+1.34 -3.5 49
2017-02-04 @ Hibernian D 1-158.4 1252 1550 9.05% 18.57% 72.38%-1.34 +3.5 21
2017-02-04 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-036.0 1439 1355 51.40% 25.75% 22.85%+0.48 +11.9 37
2017-02-04 @ Falkirk L 0-236.0 1355 1439 22.85% 25.75% 51.40%-0.48 -11.9 26
2017-02-04 Greenock Morton W 3-041.0 1315 1425 25.91% 26.29% 47.80%-0.29 +31.0 31
2017-02-04 @ Queen of the South L 0-341.0 1425 1315 47.80% 26.29% 25.91%+0.29 -31.0 37
2017-02-04 Raith Rovers W 3-031.5 1458 1306 59.06% 23.95% 16.98%+0.76 +13.2 43
2017-02-04 @ Dundee United L 0-331.5 1306 1458 16.98% 23.95% 59.06%-0.76 -13.2 25
2017-02-04 St. Mirren D 2-258.7 1265 1237 44.31% 26.66% 29.03%+0.26 -0.6 25
2017-02-04 @ Dumbarton D 2-258.7 1237 1265 29.03% 26.66% 44.31%-0.26 +0.6 14
2017-02-07 Greenock Morton L 0-139.2 1293 1394 26.90% 26.43% 46.67%-0.26 -7.3 25
2017-02-07 @ Raith Rovers W 1-039.2 1394 1293 46.67% 26.43% 26.90%+0.26 +7.3 40
2017-02-11 Dundee United W 3-042.2 1451 1471 37.53% 26.97% 35.50%+0.07 +24.6 40
2017-02-11 @ Falkirk L 0-342.2 1471 1451 35.50% 26.97% 37.53%-0.07 -24.6 43
2017-02-18 Ayr United D 2-258.7 1265 1256 41.66% 26.84% 31.50%+0.18 -0.4 26
2017-02-18 @ Dumbarton D 2-258.7 1256 1265 31.50% 26.84% 41.66%-0.18 +0.4 22
2017-02-18 Falkirk D 2-263.9 1402 1476 30.20% 26.76% 43.04%-0.15 +0.5 41
2017-02-18 @ Greenock Morton D 2-263.9 1476 1402 43.04% 26.76% 30.20%+0.15 -0.5 41
2017-02-18 Hibernian D 1-158.0 1286 1546 13.46% 22.14% 64.41%-0.90 +2.8 26
2017-02-18 @ Raith Rovers D 1-158.0 1546 1286 64.41% 22.14% 13.46%+0.90 -2.8 50
2017-02-25 Dumbarton D 2-262.1 1475 1264 64.90% 21.94% 13.15%+0.99 -2.1 42
2017-02-25 @ Falkirk D 2-262.1 1264 1475 13.15% 21.94% 64.90%-0.99 +2.1 27
2017-02-25 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-265.5 1544 1343 63.92% 22.32% 13.76%+0.95 -2.0 51
2017-02-25 @ Hibernian D 2-265.5 1343 1544 13.76% 22.32% 63.92%-0.95 +2.0 27
2017-02-25 Greenock Morton D 1-157.2 1447 1402 46.45% 26.45% 27.09%+0.33 -1.0 44
2017-02-25 @ Dundee United D 1-157.2 1402 1447 27.09% 26.45% 46.45%-0.33 +1.0 42
2017-02-25 Raith Rovers W 2-144.1 1346 1289 48.15% 26.25% 25.60%+0.38 +6.6 34
2017-02-25 @ Queen of the South L 1-244.1 1289 1346 25.60% 26.25% 48.15%-0.38 -6.6 26
2017-02-25 St. Mirren L 0-239.3 1256 1238 42.99% 26.76% 30.25%+0.22 -19.6 22
2017-02-25 @ Ayr United W 2-039.3 1238 1256 30.25% 26.76% 42.99%-0.22 +19.6 17
2017-02-28 Raith Rovers W 1-041.8 1237 1282 33.98% 26.94% 39.08%-0.03 +9.7 25
2017-02-28 @ Ayr United L 0-141.8 1282 1237 39.08% 26.94% 33.98%+0.03 -9.7 26
2017-03-01 Hibernian W 2-047.9 1257 1542 12.14% 21.25% 66.62%-0.99 +28.2 20
2017-03-01 @ St. Mirren L 0-247.9 1542 1257 66.62% 21.25% 12.14%+0.99 -28.2 51
2017-03-04 Dumbarton W 5-136.0 1345 1267 50.75% 25.86% 23.39%+0.46 +19.3 30
2017-03-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-536.0 1267 1345 23.39% 25.86% 50.75%-0.46 -19.3 27
2017-03-04 Falkirk L 0-237.5 1353 1473 24.80% 26.12% 49.07%-0.33 -12.8 34
2017-03-04 @ Queen of the South W 2-037.5 1473 1353 49.07% 26.12% 24.80%+0.33 +12.8 45
2017-03-07 Queen of the South D 1-154.2 1364 1340 43.75% 26.70% 29.55%+0.24 -0.7 31
2017-03-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-154.2 1340 1364 29.55% 26.70% 43.75%-0.24 +0.7 35
2017-03-08 St. Mirren W 2-037.0 1272 1285 38.59% 26.95% 34.46%+0.10 +16.6 29
2017-03-08 @ Raith Rovers L 0-237.0 1285 1272 34.46% 26.95% 38.59%-0.10 -16.6 20
2017-03-10 Hibernian L 0-147.3 1446 1513 31.04% 26.81% 42.15%-0.12 -8.1 44
2017-03-10 @ Dundee United W 1-047.3 1513 1446 42.15% 26.81% 31.04%+0.12 +8.1 54
2017-03-11 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-048.6 1269 1364 27.64% 26.52% 45.85%-0.23 +1.0 21
2017-03-11 @ St. Mirren D 0-048.6 1364 1269 45.85% 26.52% 27.64%+0.23 -1.0 32
2017-03-11 Falkirk L 1-435.0 1246 1486 14.72% 22.88% 62.40%-0.81 -9.7 25
2017-03-11 @ Ayr United W 4-135.0 1486 1246 62.40% 22.88% 14.72%+0.81 +9.7 48
2017-03-11 Queen of the South W 1-039.4 1403 1341 48.71% 26.17% 25.12%+0.40 +6.9 45
2017-03-11 @ Greenock Morton L 0-139.4 1341 1403 25.12% 26.17% 48.71%-0.40 -6.9 35
2017-03-11 Raith Rovers W 4-036.7 1247 1289 34.50% 26.95% 38.55%-0.02 +34.2 30
2017-03-11 @ Dumbarton L 0-436.7 1289 1247 38.55% 26.95% 34.50%+0.02 -34.2 29
2017-03-15 Dundee United W 3-258.4 1270 1438 20.13% 25.07% 54.80%-0.53 +11.4 24
2017-03-15 @ St. Mirren L 2-358.4 1438 1270 54.80% 25.07% 20.13%+0.53 -11.4 44
2017-03-18 Ayr United L 0-146.7 1363 1237 56.28% 24.71% 19.00%+0.65 -13.0 32
2017-03-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-046.7 1237 1363 19.00% 24.71% 56.28%-0.65 +13.0 28
2017-03-18 Dumbarton D 2-263.7 1521 1281 67.56% 20.84% 11.60%+1.11 -2.3 55
2017-03-18 @ Hibernian D 2-263.7 1281 1521 11.60% 20.84% 67.56%-1.11 +2.3 31
2017-03-18 Dundee United W 2-153.1 1255 1426 19.82% 24.97% 55.21%-0.54 +12.1 32
2017-03-18 @ Raith Rovers L 1-253.1 1426 1255 55.21% 24.97% 19.82%+0.54 -12.1 44
2017-03-18 Greenock Morton L 0-151.3 1496 1410 51.59% 25.72% 22.69%+0.49 -12.1 48
2017-03-18 @ Falkirk W 1-051.3 1410 1496 22.69% 25.72% 51.59%-0.49 +12.1 48
2017-03-18 St. Mirren L 0-241.1 1334 1281 47.52% 26.33% 26.15%+0.36 -21.3 35
2017-03-18 @ Queen of the South W 2-041.1 1281 1334 26.15% 26.33% 47.52%-0.36 +21.3 27
2017-03-25 Dumbarton W 2-147.3 1250 1284 35.56% 26.97% 37.47%+0.01 +8.8 31
2017-03-25 @ Ayr United L 1-247.3 1284 1250 37.47% 26.97% 35.56%-0.01 -8.8 31
2017-03-25 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-147.3 1422 1350 49.97% 25.99% 24.04%+0.44 -11.8 48
2017-03-25 @ Greenock Morton W 1-047.3 1350 1422 24.04% 25.99% 49.97%-0.44 +11.8 35
2017-03-25 Falkirk W 2-153.9 1519 1484 45.27% 26.57% 28.16%+0.29 +7.1 58
2017-03-25 @ Hibernian L 1-253.9 1484 1519 28.16% 26.57% 45.27%-0.29 -7.1 48
2017-03-25 Queen of the South D 1-153.0 1267 1313 33.92% 26.94% 39.15%-0.04 +0.2 33
2017-03-25 @ Raith Rovers D 1-153.0 1313 1267 39.15% 26.94% 33.92%+0.04 -0.2 36
2017-03-28 Ayr United W 2-141.1 1414 1258 59.48% 23.83% 16.69%+0.77 +4.5 47
2017-03-28 @ Dundee United L 1-241.1 1258 1414 16.69% 23.83% 59.48%-0.77 -4.5 31
2017-03-29 Greenock Morton D 0-055.5 1526 1410 55.14% 24.99% 19.87%+0.61 -2.1 59
2017-03-29 @ Hibernian D 0-055.5 1410 1526 19.87% 24.99% 55.14%-0.61 +2.1 49
2017-04-01 Ayr United W 6-238.3 1302 1254 46.95% 26.40% 26.66%+0.34 +18.2 30
2017-04-01 @ St. Mirren L 2-638.3 1254 1302 26.66% 26.40% 46.95%-0.34 -18.2 31
2017-04-01 Dundee United W 4-252.1 1313 1419 26.34% 26.35% 47.31%-0.28 +16.4 39
2017-04-01 @ Queen of the South L 2-452.1 1419 1313 47.31% 26.35% 26.34%+0.28 -16.4 47
2017-04-01 Greenock Morton W 1-046.3 1275 1412 23.00% 25.78% 51.21%-0.40 +12.0 34
2017-04-01 @ Dumbarton L 0-146.3 1412 1275 51.21% 25.78% 23.00%+0.40 -12.0 49
2017-04-01 Hibernian D 1-158.6 1362 1524 20.60% 25.20% 54.20%-0.50 +1.8 36
2017-04-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-158.6 1524 1362 54.20% 25.20% 20.60%+0.50 -1.8 60
2017-04-01 Raith Rovers W 1-034.6 1476 1267 64.77% 22.00% 13.24%+0.99 +3.7 51
2017-04-01 @ Falkirk L 0-134.6 1267 1476 13.24% 22.00% 64.77%-0.99 -3.7 33
2017-04-08 Dumbarton D 1-153.2 1321 1287 45.01% 26.60% 28.39%+0.28 -0.8 31
2017-04-08 @ St. Mirren D 1-153.2 1287 1321 28.39% 26.60% 45.01%-0.28 +0.8 35
2017-04-08 Falkirk D 1-158.1 1402 1480 29.72% 26.72% 43.56%-0.16 +0.7 48
2017-04-08 @ Dundee United D 1-158.1 1480 1402 43.56% 26.72% 29.72%+0.16 -0.7 52
2017-04-08 Hibernian D 1-159.6 1400 1522 24.59% 26.09% 49.32%-0.34 +1.3 50
2017-04-08 @ Greenock Morton D 1-159.6 1522 1400 49.32% 26.09% 24.59%+0.34 -1.3 61
2017-04-08 Queen of the South L 0-235.0 1236 1329 27.85% 26.54% 45.61%-0.23 -14.1 31
2017-04-08 @ Ayr United W 2-035.0 1329 1236 45.61% 26.54% 27.85%+0.23 +14.1 42
2017-04-08 Raith Rovers W 1-036.6 1363 1263 53.29% 25.39% 21.32%+0.55 +6.0 39
2017-04-08 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-136.6 1263 1363 21.32% 25.39% 53.29%-0.55 -6.0 33
2017-04-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-041.0 1403 1369 45.03% 26.60% 28.38%+0.28 +7.6 51
2017-04-11 @ Dundee United L 0-141.0 1369 1403 28.38% 26.60% 45.03%-0.28 -7.6 39
2017-04-11 St. Mirren L 1-446.7 1402 1320 51.14% 25.80% 23.07%+0.48 -27.7 50
2017-04-11 @ Greenock Morton W 4-146.7 1320 1402 23.07% 25.80% 51.14%-0.48 +27.7 34
2017-04-15 Dundee United D 0-049.2 1222 1411 18.36% 24.49% 57.15%-0.61 +2.3 32
2017-04-15 @ Ayr United D 0-049.2 1411 1222 57.15% 24.49% 18.36%+0.61 -2.3 52
2017-04-15 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-236.3 1288 1362 30.22% 26.76% 43.02%-0.15 -15.0 35
2017-04-15 @ Dumbarton W 2-036.3 1362 1288 43.02% 26.76% 30.22%+0.15 +15.0 42
2017-04-15 Greenock Morton W 2-041.5 1257 1374 25.19% 26.18% 48.63%-0.32 +21.7 36
2017-04-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-241.5 1374 1257 48.63% 26.18% 25.19%+0.32 -21.7 50
2017-04-15 Queen of the South W 3-033.0 1521 1343 61.75% 23.10% 15.15%+0.86 +11.8 64
2017-04-15 @ Hibernian L 0-333.0 1343 1521 15.15% 23.10% 61.75%-0.86 -11.8 42
2017-04-15 St. Mirren D 2-263.1 1479 1347 56.93% 24.55% 18.52%+0.68 -1.5 53
2017-04-15 @ Falkirk D 2-263.1 1347 1479 18.52% 24.55% 56.93%-0.68 +1.5 35
2017-04-22 Ayr United D 1-153.6 1352 1224 56.53% 24.65% 18.82%+0.66 -2.0 51
2017-04-22 @ Greenock Morton D 1-153.6 1224 1352 18.82% 24.65% 56.53%-0.66 +2.0 33
2017-04-22 Dumbarton L 1-250.7 1331 1273 48.24% 26.24% 25.53%+0.38 -10.8 42
2017-04-22 @ Queen of the South W 2-150.7 1273 1331 25.53% 26.24% 48.24%-0.38 +10.8 38
2017-04-22 Falkirk L 1-248.4 1377 1478 26.90% 26.43% 46.67%-0.26 -6.9 42
2017-04-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-148.4 1478 1377 46.67% 26.43% 26.90%+0.26 +6.8 56
2017-04-22 St. Mirren W 3-250.8 1408 1349 48.34% 26.22% 25.44%+0.38 +6.2 55
2017-04-22 @ Dundee United L 2-350.8 1349 1408 25.44% 26.22% 48.34%-0.38 -6.2 35
2017-04-26 Raith Rovers W 3-245.8 1533 1279 68.78% 20.30% 10.92%+1.16 +2.7 67
2017-04-26 @ Hibernian L 2-345.8 1279 1533 10.92% 20.30% 68.78%-1.16 -2.7 36
2017-04-29 Dumbarton D 2-260.7 1415 1284 56.82% 24.58% 18.60%+0.67 -1.5 56
2017-04-29 @ Dundee United D 2-260.7 1284 1415 18.60% 24.58% 56.82%-0.67 +1.5 39
2017-04-29 Greenock Morton W 3-143.1 1370 1350 43.11% 26.75% 30.14%+0.23 +13.0 45
2017-04-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-343.1 1350 1370 30.14% 26.75% 43.11%-0.23 -13.0 51
2017-04-29 Hibernian L 0-428.6 1226 1536 10.88% 20.27% 68.85%-1.09 -10.8 33
2017-04-29 @ Ayr United W 4-028.6 1536 1226 68.85% 20.27% 10.88%+1.09 +10.8 70
2017-04-29 Queen of the South D 2-262.9 1485 1320 60.36% 23.56% 16.09%+0.81 -1.8 57
2017-04-29 @ Falkirk D 2-262.9 1320 1485 16.09% 23.56% 60.36%-0.81 +1.8 43
2017-04-29 Raith Rovers W 5-033.7 1343 1276 49.24% 26.10% 24.66%+0.41 +29.8 38
2017-04-29 @ St. Mirren L 0-533.7 1276 1343 24.66% 26.10% 49.24%-0.41 -29.8 36
2017-05-06 Ayr United W 2-144.3 1247 1215 44.71% 26.62% 28.67%+0.27 +7.2 39
2017-05-06 @ Raith Rovers L 1-244.3 1215 1247 28.67% 26.62% 44.71%-0.27 -7.2 33
2017-05-06 Dundee United D 1-154.9 1337 1413 29.99% 26.74% 43.27%-0.16 +0.7 52
2017-05-06 @ Greenock Morton D 1-154.9 1413 1337 43.27% 26.74% 29.99%+0.16 -0.7 57
2017-05-06 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-141.1 1322 1383 31.95% 26.86% 41.19%-0.10 -8.3 43
2017-05-06 @ Queen of the South W 1-041.1 1383 1322 41.19% 26.86% 31.95%+0.10 +8.3 48
2017-05-06 Falkirk L 0-137.0 1285 1483 17.65% 24.23% 58.12%-0.65 -5.0 39
2017-05-06 @ Dumbarton W 1-037.0 1483 1285 58.12% 24.23% 17.65%+0.65 +5.0 60
2017-05-06 St. Mirren D 1-160.3 1546 1373 61.33% 23.24% 15.43%+0.84 -2.5 71
2017-05-06 @ Hibernian D 1-160.3 1373 1546 15.43% 23.24% 61.33%-0.84 +2.5 39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2017-03-01 12.14% @ St. Mirren 1257 2 Hibernian 1542 0
2 2016-09-17 12.26% Ayr United 1268 2 @ Hibernian 1495 1
3 2016-12-31 14.24% @ Dumbarton 1248 1 Dundee United 1495 0
4 2016-12-17 17.22% @ Dumbarton 1235 2 Falkirk 1438 1
5 2017-03-18 19.00% Ayr United 1237 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1363 0
6 2016-08-13 19.23% @ Dumbarton 1254 1 Dundee United 1433 0
7 2017-03-18 19.82% @ Raith Rovers 1255 2 Dundee United 1426 1
8 2017-03-15 20.13% @ St. Mirren 1270 3 Dundee United 1438 2
9 2016-10-15 21.06% Greenock Morton 1312 5 @ Queen of the South 1415 0
10 2017-03-18 22.69% Greenock Morton 1410 1 @ Falkirk 1496 0
11 2016-10-22 22.86% Raith Rovers 1368 4 @ Falkirk 1452 2
12 2016-12-03 22.99% Dumbarton 1229 2 @ Queen of the South 1311 1
13 2017-04-01 23.00% @ Dumbarton 1275 1 Greenock Morton 1412 0
14 2017-04-11 23.07% St. Mirren 1320 4 @ Greenock Morton 1402 1
15 2017-01-28 23.26% Dumbarton 1246 3 @ Raith Rovers 1326 1
16 2016-12-10 23.52% @ St. Mirren 1256 1 Raith Rovers 1388 0
17 2017-03-25 24.04% Dunfermline Athletic 1350 1 @ Greenock Morton 1422 0
18 2017-04-15 25.19% @ Raith Rovers 1257 2 Greenock Morton 1374 0
19 2017-01-02 25.22% Dunfermline Athletic 1319 2 @ Raith Rovers 1380 0
20 2017-04-22 25.53% Dumbarton 1273 2 @ Queen of the South 1331 1
21 2017-02-04 25.91% @ Queen of the South 1315 3 Greenock Morton 1425 0
22 2016-12-06 26.03% St. Mirren 1246 3 @ Queen of the South 1300 2
23 2017-03-18 26.15% St. Mirren 1281 2 @ Queen of the South 1334 0
24 2017-04-01 26.34% @ Queen of the South 1313 4 Dundee United 1419 2
25 2016-11-05 26.96% Dumbarton 1227 1 @ St. Mirren 1273 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2016-10-15 55.01 Greenock Morton 5 1312 21.06% @ Queen of the South 0 1415 53.61% 25.33%
2 2017-03-11 34.21 @ Dumbarton 4 1247 34.50% Raith Rovers 0 1289 38.55% 26.95%
3 2017-02-04 31.03 @ Queen of the South 3 1315 25.91% Greenock Morton 0 1425 47.80% 26.29%
4 2017-04-29 29.81 @ St. Mirren 5 1343 49.24% Raith Rovers 0 1276 24.66% 26.10%
5 2017-03-01 28.21 @ St. Mirren 2 1257 12.14% Hibernian 0 1542 66.62% 21.25%
6 2017-04-11 27.67 St. Mirren 4 1320 23.07% @ Greenock Morton 1 1402 51.14% 25.80%
7 2016-10-15 25.90 Ayr United 3 1273 35.05% @ Dumbarton 0 1256 37.99% 26.96%
8 2017-01-07 25.77 Queen of the South 3 1285 35.32% @ St. Mirren 0 1266 37.71% 26.97%
9 2017-02-11 24.64 @ Falkirk 3 1451 37.53% Dundee United 0 1471 35.50% 26.97%
10 2017-04-15 21.67 @ Raith Rovers 2 1257 25.19% Greenock Morton 0 1374 48.63% 26.18%
11 2017-01-02 21.65 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1319 25.22% @ Raith Rovers 0 1380 48.59% 26.19%
12 2017-03-18 21.26 St. Mirren 2 1281 26.15% @ Queen of the South 0 1334 47.52% 26.33%
13 2017-01-06 20.28 @ Hibernian 3 1522 45.94% Dundee United 0 1481 27.55% 26.51%
14 2017-02-25 19.61 St. Mirren 2 1238 30.25% @ Ayr United 0 1256 42.99% 26.76%
15 2017-01-28 19.50 Dumbarton 3 1246 23.26% @ Raith Rovers 1 1326 50.91% 25.84%
16 2017-01-07 19.28 Falkirk 4 1417 41.01% @ Raith Rovers 1 1358 32.11% 26.87%
17 2017-03-04 19.27 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1345 50.75% Dumbarton 1 1267 23.39% 25.86%
18 2016-08-20 18.82 @ Queen of the South 2 1362 32.34% Falkirk 0 1420 40.78% 26.88%
19 2016-09-10 18.55 Falkirk 2 1406 33.05% @ Raith Rovers 0 1404 40.03% 26.91%
20 2017-04-01 18.24 @ St. Mirren 6 1302 46.95% Ayr United 2 1254 26.66% 26.40%
21 2016-10-22 17.58 Raith Rovers 4 1368 22.86% @ Falkirk 2 1452 51.39% 25.75%
22 2016-08-27 17.57 @ Hibernian 4 1473 58.61% Greenock Morton 0 1325 17.30% 24.09%
23 2017-03-08 16.60 @ Raith Rovers 2 1272 38.59% St. Mirren 0 1285 34.46% 26.95%
24 2017-04-01 16.40 @ Queen of the South 4 1313 26.34% Dundee United 2 1419 47.31% 26.35%
25 2016-08-13 16.05 @ Queen of the South 4 1346 48.29% Ayr United 1 1287 25.48% 26.23%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-01-14 65.8 @ Dundee United 3 1461 58.87% Queen of the South 3 1311 17.12% 24.01%
2 2017-02-25 65.5 @ Hibernian 2 1544 63.92% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1343 13.76% 22.32%
3 2016-12-24 64.0 @ Ayr United 4 1280 44.85% Dumbarton 4 1247 28.54% 26.61%
4 2017-02-18 63.9 @ Greenock Morton 2 1402 30.20% Falkirk 2 1476 43.04% 26.76%
5 2017-03-18 63.7 @ Hibernian 2 1521 67.56% Dumbarton 2 1281 11.60% 20.84%
6 2017-04-15 63.1 @ Falkirk 2 1479 56.93% St. Mirren 2 1347 18.52% 24.55%
7 2017-04-29 62.9 @ Falkirk 2 1485 60.36% Queen of the South 2 1320 16.09% 23.56%
8 2016-08-27 62.7 @ Dundee United 2 1433 44.53% Raith Rovers 2 1403 28.83% 26.64%
9 2017-02-25 62.1 @ Falkirk 2 1475 64.90% Dumbarton 2 1264 13.15% 21.94%
10 2016-12-10 61.3 @ Falkirk 2 1440 58.90% Queen of the South 2 1290 17.10% 24.00%
11 2017-04-29 60.7 @ Dundee United 2 1415 56.82% Dumbarton 2 1284 18.60% 24.58%
12 2017-05-06 60.3 @ Hibernian 1 1546 61.33% St. Mirren 1 1373 15.43% 23.24%
13 2016-11-12 60.1 @ Hibernian 1 1509 51.33% Falkirk 1 1425 22.91% 25.76%
14 2017-04-08 59.6 @ Greenock Morton 1 1400 24.59% Hibernian 1 1522 49.32% 26.09%
15 2016-10-02 59.2 @ Hibernian 1 1480 46.54% Dundee United 1 1435 27.02% 26.44%
16 2016-12-24 59.2 @ Hibernian 1 1517 57.68% Raith Rovers 1 1378 17.97% 24.35%
17 2016-12-17 59.1 @ Queen of the South 2 1291 36.71% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1317 36.31% 26.97%
18 2016-12-17 59.0 @ Greenock Morton 1 1387 23.65% Hibernian 1 1518 50.43% 25.91%
19 2016-10-29 58.8 @ Dumbarton 2 1227 29.90% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1303 43.37% 26.73%
20 2017-02-04 58.7 @ Dumbarton 2 1265 44.31% St. Mirren 2 1237 29.03% 26.66%
21 2017-02-18 58.7 @ Dumbarton 2 1265 41.66% Ayr United 2 1256 31.50% 26.84%
22 2017-04-01 58.6 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1362 20.60% Hibernian 1 1524 54.20% 25.20%
23 2017-02-04 58.4 @ Hibernian 1 1550 72.38% Ayr United 1 1252 9.05% 18.57%
24 2017-03-15 58.4 @ St. Mirren 3 1270 20.13% Dundee United 2 1438 54.80% 25.07%
25 2017-04-08 58.1 @ Dundee United 1 1402 29.72% Falkirk 1 1480 43.56% 26.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2017-04-29 28.6 Hibernian 4 1536 68.85% @ Ayr United 0 1226 10.88% 20.27%
2 2016-12-10 29.5 @ Hibernian 2 1513 70.39% Dumbarton 0 1240 10.06% 19.55%
3 2016-08-20 30.4 @ Dundee United 3 1420 58.69% Ayr United 0 1271 17.25% 24.07%
4 2017-02-04 31.5 @ Dundee United 3 1458 59.06% Raith Rovers 0 1306 16.98% 23.95%
5 2016-10-29 32.0 @ Hibernian 2 1487 63.57% St. Mirren 0 1290 13.97% 22.45%
6 2016-09-24 32.2 @ Falkirk 2 1440 59.68% Ayr United 0 1282 16.55% 23.77%
7 2016-11-19 32.3 @ Hibernian 4 1507 62.02% Queen of the South 0 1326 14.97% 23.01%
8 2016-08-27 32.4 @ Hibernian 4 1473 58.61% Greenock Morton 0 1325 17.30% 24.09%
9 2016-11-05 32.6 Hibernian 3 1495 57.49% @ Ayr United 0 1302 18.11% 24.40%
10 2017-04-15 33.0 @ Hibernian 3 1521 61.75% Queen of the South 0 1343 15.15% 23.10%
11 2016-11-12 33.3 Greenock Morton 2 1385 52.31% @ Dumbarton 0 1238 22.10% 25.58%
12 2017-04-29 33.7 @ St. Mirren 5 1343 49.24% Raith Rovers 0 1276 24.66% 26.10%
13 2017-04-01 34.6 @ Falkirk 1 1476 64.77% Raith Rovers 0 1267 13.24% 22.00%
14 2017-03-11 35.0 Falkirk 4 1486 62.40% @ Ayr United 1 1246 14.72% 22.88%
15 2017-04-08 35.0 Queen of the South 2 1329 45.61% @ Ayr United 0 1236 27.85% 26.54%
16 2017-01-14 35.1 Hibernian 1 1542 66.65% @ Dumbarton 0 1257 12.12% 21.23%
17 2016-10-15 35.2 Dundee United 2 1436 50.69% @ St. Mirren 0 1303 23.44% 25.87%
18 2016-08-27 35.9 @ Falkirk 1 1401 57.01% Dumbarton 0 1268 18.46% 24.53%
19 2016-09-10 35.9 Hibernian 1 1490 61.16% @ Dumbarton 0 1263 15.54% 23.30%
20 2017-01-14 35.9 @ Greenock Morton 2 1398 48.31% Raith Rovers 0 1339 25.46% 26.23%
21 2017-02-04 36.0 @ Falkirk 2 1439 51.40% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1355 22.85% 25.75%
22 2017-03-04 36.0 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1345 50.75% Dumbarton 1 1267 23.39% 25.86%
23 2016-10-15 36.3 Ayr United 3 1273 35.05% @ Dumbarton 0 1256 37.99% 26.96%
24 2017-01-07 36.3 Queen of the South 3 1285 35.32% @ St. Mirren 0 1266 37.71% 26.97%
25 2017-04-15 36.3 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1362 43.02% @ Dumbarton 0 1288 30.22% 26.76%