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2018-19 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Ross County

71 pts

Relegated

Falkirk

38 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Dundee United

10.83 points above expected

65 points · 54.17 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Queen of the South

14.64 points below expected

38 points · 52.64 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Ross County Promoted 36 21 8 7 71 63 34 +29 63.22 +7.78
2 Dundee United 36 19 8 9 65 49 40 +9 54.17 +10.83
3 Inverness CT 36 14 14 8 56 48 40 +8 63.99 -7.99
4 Ayr United 36 15 9 12 54 50 38 +12 47.54 +6.46
5 Greenock Morton 36 11 13 12 46 36 45 -9 45.16 +0.84
6 Partick Thistle 36 12 7 17 43 43 52 -9 45.44 -2.44
7 Dunfermline Athletic 36 11 8 17 41 33 40 -7 55.51 -14.51
8 Alloa Athletic 36 10 9 17 39 39 53 -14 30.12 +8.88
9 Queen of the South 36 9 11 16 38 41 48 -7 52.64 -14.64
10 Falkirk Relegated 36 9 11 16 38 37 49 -12 45.19 -7.19

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dundee United 65 54.17 +10.83
2 Alloa Athletic 39 30.12 +8.88
3 Ross County 71 63.22 +7.78
4 Ayr United 54 47.54 +6.46
5 Greenock Morton 46 45.16 +0.84

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Queen of the South 38 52.64 -14.64
2 Dunfermline Athletic 41 55.51 -14.51
3 Inverness CT 56 63.99 -7.99
4 Falkirk 38 45.19 -7.19
5 Partick Thistle 43 45.44 -2.44

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 4 Mar 30 – Apr 13 1 in 384
2 Ayr United 4 Sep 15 – Oct 6 1 in 80
3 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Feb 16 – Mar 9 1 in 58
4 Greenock Morton 3 Apr 20 – May 4 1 in 46
5 Dundee United 4 Oct 27 – Nov 20 1 in 46

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 7 Jan 26 – Mar 9 1 in 2,148
2 Partick Thistle 7 Sep 28 – Nov 10 1 in 593
3 Falkirk 6 Aug 4 – Sep 22 1 in 248
4 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Apr 9 – May 4 1 in 119
5 Ayr United 3 Feb 23 – Mar 8 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 6 Dec 8 – Jan 12 1 in 146
2 Ayr United 9 Oct 27 – Dec 29 1 in 114
3 Falkirk 8 Jan 5 – Mar 8 1 in 98
4 Inverness CT 14 Aug 4 – Nov 17 1 in 95
5 Ross County 9 Sep 1 – Nov 3 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 7 Sep 22 – Nov 3 1 in 179
2 Dunfermline Athletic 8 Mar 26 – May 4 1 in 81
3 Queen of the South 7 Jan 26 – Mar 9 1 in 64
4 Partick Thistle 9 Sep 28 – Dec 1 1 in 55
5 Greenock Morton 7 Mar 1 – Apr 16 1 in 21

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Ross County 1538 71 +16 10 9.4 +0.6
Dundee United 1472 65 +22 10 7.2 +2.8
Inverness CT 1499 56 -2 10 8.9 +1.1
Ayr United 1408 54 -15 4 7.0 -3.0
Greenock Morton 1386 46 +24 10 5.9 +4.1
Partick Thistle 1416 43 +26 10 6.6 +3.4
Dunfermline Athletic 1418 41 -31 0 6.8 -6.8
Alloa Athletic 1304 39 +9 7 4.7 +2.3
Falkirk 1393 38 -17 6 6.7 -0.7
Queen of the South 1371 38 -39 3 6.5 -3.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA AU DU DA FAL GM IC PT QOTS RC
Alloa Athletic —
0-1-3
4.02
1-1-2
3.20
0-2-2
3.19
1-1-2
3.87
3-0-1
3.87
0-2-2
2.65
1-1-2
3.99
3-1-0
3.35
1-0-3
2.64
Ayr United
3-1-0
7.15
 —
3-0-1
4.95
2-1-1
4.86
2-0-2
5.81
1-3-0
5.80
0-1-3
4.15
3-0-1
5.10
1-2-1
5.15
0-1-3
4.05
Dundee United
2-1-1
8.02
1-0-3
6.19
 —
3-0-1
5.15
3-1-0
6.45
1-2-1
6.42
2-2-0
4.48
2-1-1
6.31
3-0-1
5.72
2-1-1
4.56
Dunfermline Athletic
2-2-0
8.02
1-1-2
6.28
1-0-3
5.98
 —
2-0-2
6.52
1-2-1
6.19
1-1-2
4.56
2-1-1
6.50
1-1-2
5.84
0-0-4
4.82
Falkirk
2-1-1
7.30
2-0-2
5.33
0-1-3
4.69
2-0-2
4.62
 —
0-2-2
5.72
1-2-1
3.96
0-3-1
5.87
1-1-2
4.95
1-1-2
3.68
Greenock Morton
1-0-3
7.30
0-3-1
5.35
1-2-1
4.72
1-2-1
4.95
2-2-0
5.42
 —
0-2-2
3.66
2-0-2
5.81
2-2-0
4.90
2-0-2
3.95
Inverness CT
2-2-0
8.61
3-1-0
7.02
0-2-2
6.66
2-1-1
6.58
1-2-1
7.22
2-2-0
7.51
 —
3-0-1
7.54
1-2-1
6.75
0-2-2
5.59
Partick Thistle
2-1-1
7.18
1-0-3
6.03
1-1-2
4.83
1-1-2
4.63
1-3-0
5.26
2-0-2
5.32
1-0-3
3.64
 —
3-0-1
4.68
0-1-3
3.75
Queen of the South
0-1-3
7.86
1-2-1
5.99
1-0-3
5.41
2-1-1
5.29
2-1-1
6.19
0-2-2
6.25
1-2-1
4.40
1-0-3
6.47
 —
1-2-1
4.40
Ross County
3-0-1
8.61
3-1-0
7.11
1-1-2
6.59
4-0-0
6.34
2-1-1
7.50
2-0-2
7.23
2-2-0
5.54
3-1-0
7.43
1-2-1
6.76
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.78 +11.8
Allowed 0.64 -14.8
Differential 0.88 +8.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%11.39%6.67%2.22%0.56%0.83%29.44%
111.39%12.22%9.17%1.11%0.28%0.83%35.00%
26.67%9.17%5.56%2.50%0.83%—24.72%
32.22%1.11%2.50%1.67%——7.50%
40.56%0.28%0.83%———1.67%
5+0.83%0.83%————1.67%
Total29.44%35.00%24.72%7.50%1.67%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.10 1.57
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%13.89%2.78%——33.33%
18.33%5.56%11.11%2.78%——27.78%
25.56%13.89%11.11%2.78%2.78%—36.11%
3———2.78%——2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%30.56%36.11%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.47 -0.39
SD 0.91 1.03 1.27
CV 0.84 0.70 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%13.89%2.78%——2.78%30.56%
113.89%11.11%5.56%2.78%——33.33%
28.33%2.78%—5.56%——16.67%
32.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total38.89%36.11%11.11%11.11%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.06 +0.33
SD 1.40 1.19 1.85
CV 1.01 1.13 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%2.78%——2.78%11.11%
116.67%22.22%8.33%——2.78%50.00%
213.89%16.67%—2.78%——33.33%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%47.22%13.89%2.78%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.11 +0.25
SD 0.83 1.21 1.59
CV 0.61 1.09 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%25.00%5.56%2.78%——44.44%
116.67%2.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
22.78%—8.33%———11.11%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total36.11%27.78%27.78%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.11 -0.19
SD 1.08 1.06 1.45
CV 1.18 0.96 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%16.67%2.78%——33.33%
18.33%19.44%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%2.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%—19.44%
32.78%—5.56%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%30.56%38.89%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.36 -0.33
SD 0.94 0.99 1.35
CV 0.92 0.73 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—2.78%30.56%
113.89%19.44%11.11%——2.78%47.22%
25.56%8.33%5.56%———19.44%
3———————
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total30.56%36.11%22.22%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.25 -0.25
SD 0.99 1.27 1.71
CV 0.99 1.02 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%5.56%2.78%———22.22%
116.67%8.33%11.11%———36.11%
22.78%8.33%13.89%2.78%——27.78%
32.78%—8.33%2.78%——13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.11%22.22%36.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.11 +0.22
SD 0.99 0.98 0.99
CV 0.74 0.88 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%8.33%2.78%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%2.78%—2.78%33.33%
25.56%13.89%5.56%2.78%2.78%—30.56%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%38.89%27.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.44 -0.25
SD 0.95 1.16 1.57
CV 0.80 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%8.33%5.56%2.78%—38.89%
15.56%13.89%11.11%———30.56%
22.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
32.78%——5.56%——8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total25.00%36.11%22.22%13.89%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.33 -0.19
SD 1.27 1.10 1.80
CV 1.11 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%——2.78%—22.22%
18.33%8.33%2.78%———19.44%
213.89%16.67%2.78%2.78%——36.11%
3—5.56%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total36.11%44.44%11.11%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 0.94 +0.81
SD 1.38 0.98 1.67
CV 0.79 1.04 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Ross County 1538 71 63.22 +7.78 87.0% 43 49 59 63 68 74 88
Inverness CT 1499 56 63.99 -7.99 13.0% 49 52 59 64 68 75 83
Dundee United 1472 65 54.17 +10.83 94.0% 35 43 50 54 58 66 75
Dunfermline Athletic 1418 41 55.51 -14.51 1.0% 36 43 50 55 60 68 71
Partick Thistle 1416 43 45.44 -2.44 39.0% 28 34 40 45 50 60 61
Ayr United 1408 54 47.54 +6.46 84.0% 28 35 42 47 51 61 65
Falkirk 1393 38 45.19 -7.19 24.0% 25 34 39 46 52 57 65
Greenock Morton 1386 46 45.16 +0.84 62.0% 26 33 41 45 50 56 67
Queen of the South 1371 38 52.64 -14.64 1.0% 37 41 47 52 57 65 69
Alloa Athletic 1304 39 30.12 +8.88 90.0% 13 18 26 29 35 44 46

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+2.78%
No Edge
37.78%27.22%35.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 9.65 Elo pts.
503 Elo
0.002 goals per Elo point
01500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.06 goals
Neutral
-2+0.02+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
Ross County, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.87 * Some Luck: 5.87 to 8.8 * Lucky: 8.8 to 11.74 * Wild Swing: 11.74 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.34 * Way Off: 2.34 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
9.12 points
Lucky
07.3418
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.40
Way Off
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Dundee United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Dunfermline Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 1
Several Surprises
00.21

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 67.34
1.52
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
73%
Very Frequent
0%66%100%
Blowouts
Expected
9%
Rare
0%11%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.68
Coin-Flip
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.60
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.29
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
34%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Shaky
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.10
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.39
Overconfident
0.2110281.001.78897
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.116
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Ross County36.00%34.00%11.00%11.00%1.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%—
Dundee United5.00%12.00%16.00%21.00%20.00%13.00%5.00%5.00%3.00%—
Inverness CT43.00%17.00%26.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%————
Ayr United—4.00%7.00%9.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%16.00%13.00%3.00%
Greenock Morton2.00%—4.00%2.00%13.00%8.00%28.00%20.00%19.00%4.00%
Partick Thistle—6.00%3.00%2.00%9.00%16.00%14.00%29.00%18.00%3.00%
Dunfermline Athletic8.00%12.00%24.00%18.00%10.00%13.00%7.00%4.00%4.00%—
Alloa Athletic——————3.00%5.00%8.00%84.00%
Queen of the South6.00%13.00%5.00%19.00%17.00%16.00%6.00%10.00%7.00%1.00%
Falkirk—2.00%4.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%17.00%10.00%27.00%5.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Inverness CT 43.00% 50.00% 7.00% —
Ross County 36.00% 56.00% 8.00% —
Dunfermline Athletic 8.00% 54.00% 38.00% —
Dundee United 5.00% 49.00% 46.00% —
Queen of the South 6.00% 37.00% 56.00% 1.00%
Greenock Morton 2.00% 6.00% 88.00% 4.00%
Ayr United — 20.00% 77.00% 3.00%
Partick Thistle — 11.00% 86.00% 3.00%
Falkirk — 17.00% 78.00% 5.00%
Alloa Athletic — — 16.00% 84.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-08-04 Alloa Athletic W 1-034.8 1460 1289 65.05% 18.73% 16.22%+0.36 +2.9 3
2018-08-04 @ Ross County L 0-134.8 1289 1460 16.22% 18.73% 65.05%-0.36 -2.9 0
2018-08-04 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-358.0 1437 1491 37.36% 21.85% 40.79%-0.09 -5.5 0
2018-08-04 @ Dundee United W 3-258.0 1491 1437 40.79% 21.85% 37.36%+0.09 +5.5 3
2018-08-04 Inverness CT L 0-147.2 1443 1497 37.21% 21.85% 40.94%-0.09 -6.2 0
2018-08-04 @ Falkirk W 1-047.2 1497 1443 40.94% 21.85% 37.21%+0.09 +6.2 3
2018-08-04 Partick Thistle W 2-041.8 1313 1431 28.91% 21.41% 49.68%-0.22 +14.7 3
2018-08-04 @ Ayr United L 0-241.8 1431 1313 49.68% 21.41% 28.91%+0.22 -14.7 0
2018-08-04 Queen of the South D 2-265.3 1419 1425 44.13% 21.76% 34.11%+0.01 -0.3 1
2018-08-04 @ Greenock Morton D 2-265.3 1425 1419 34.11% 21.76% 44.13%-0.01 +0.2 1
2018-08-11 Ayr United D 0-054.6 1503 1328 65.59% 18.58% 15.83%+0.37 -2.0 4
2018-08-11 @ Inverness CT D 0-054.6 1328 1503 15.83% 18.58% 65.59%-0.37 +2.0 4
2018-08-11 Dundee United L 1-252.7 1425 1432 43.97% 21.77% 34.26%+0.01 -6.6 1
2018-08-11 @ Queen of the South W 2-152.7 1432 1425 34.26% 21.77% 43.97%-0.01 +6.6 3
2018-08-11 Falkirk W 2-150.2 1416 1437 42.06% 21.83% 36.11%-0.02 +5.7 3
2018-08-11 @ Partick Thistle L 1-250.2 1437 1416 36.11% 21.83% 42.06%+0.02 -5.7 0
2018-08-11 Greenock Morton L 0-234.4 1287 1419 27.28% 21.23% 51.49%-0.24 -9.0 0
2018-08-11 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-034.4 1419 1287 51.49% 21.23% 27.28%+0.24 +9.0 4
2018-08-11 Ross County L 1-353.7 1496 1463 49.39% 21.43% 29.18%+0.09 -12.7 3
2018-08-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-153.7 1463 1496 29.18% 21.43% 49.39%-0.09 +12.7 6
2018-08-25 Alloa Athletic D 2-265.1 1501 1278 69.99% 17.21% 12.80%+0.46 -1.6 5
2018-08-25 @ Inverness CT D 2-265.1 1278 1501 12.80% 17.21% 69.99%-0.46 +1.6 1
2018-08-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-147.8 1330 1483 24.92% 20.91% 54.17%-0.29 +19.4 7
2018-08-25 @ Ayr United L 1-447.8 1483 1330 54.17% 20.91% 24.92%+0.29 -19.4 3
2018-08-25 Partick Thistle W 3-145.0 1438 1422 47.13% 21.60% 31.27%+0.05 +8.8 6
2018-08-25 @ Dundee United L 1-345.0 1422 1438 31.27% 21.60% 47.13%-0.05 -8.8 3
2018-08-25 Queen of the South L 0-341.7 1431 1418 46.64% 21.64% 31.72%+0.04 -20.3 0
2018-08-25 @ Falkirk W 3-041.7 1418 1431 31.72% 21.64% 46.64%-0.04 +20.3 4
2018-08-25 Ross County W 2-152.9 1428 1475 38.17% 21.86% 39.97%-0.08 +6.2 7
2018-08-25 @ Greenock Morton L 1-252.9 1475 1428 39.97% 21.86% 38.17%+0.08 -6.2 6
2018-09-01 Ayr United W 5-034.1 1439 1349 56.37% 20.59% 23.05%+0.20 +18.1 7
2018-09-01 @ Queen of the South L 0-534.1 1349 1439 23.05% 20.59% 56.37%-0.20 -18.1 7
2018-09-01 Dundee United D 1-157.0 1279 1447 23.47% 20.67% 55.86%-0.31 +1.1 2
2018-09-01 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-157.0 1447 1279 55.86% 20.67% 23.47%+0.31 -1.2 7
2018-09-01 Falkirk W 2-037.9 1469 1411 52.61% 21.11% 26.29%+0.14 +8.7 9
2018-09-01 @ Ross County L 0-237.9 1411 1469 26.29% 21.11% 52.61%-0.14 -8.7 0
2018-09-01 Greenock Morton W 1-043.9 1413 1434 42.01% 21.83% 36.16%-0.02 +6.0 6
2018-09-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-143.9 1434 1413 36.16% 21.83% 42.01%+0.02 -6.0 7
2018-09-01 Inverness CT L 0-343.5 1464 1500 39.86% 21.86% 38.29%-0.05 -17.8 3
2018-09-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-043.5 1500 1464 38.29% 21.86% 39.86%+0.05 +17.8 8
2018-09-15 Alloa Athletic D 0-052.4 1446 1280 64.61% 18.85% 16.55%+0.35 -2.0 4
2018-09-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-052.4 1280 1446 16.55% 18.85% 64.61%-0.35 +2.0 3
2018-09-15 Falkirk W 3-254.8 1331 1402 34.91% 21.79% 43.30%-0.12 +6.2 10
2018-09-15 @ Ayr United L 2-354.8 1402 1331 43.30% 21.79% 34.91%+0.12 -6.2 0
2018-09-15 Greenock Morton D 1-160.1 1446 1428 47.35% 21.59% 31.06%+0.05 -0.5 8
2018-09-15 @ Dundee United D 1-160.1 1428 1446 31.06% 21.59% 47.35%-0.05 +0.6 8
2018-09-15 Partick Thistle W 3-253.3 1518 1419 57.39% 20.42% 22.19%+0.21 +3.5 11
2018-09-15 @ Inverness CT L 2-353.3 1419 1518 22.19% 20.42% 57.39%-0.21 -3.5 6
2018-09-15 Ross County D 0-056.8 1457 1478 41.93% 21.83% 36.24%-0.02 -0.2 8
2018-09-15 @ Queen of the South D 0-056.8 1478 1457 36.24% 21.83% 41.93%+0.02 +0.2 10
2018-09-22 Ayr United L 0-236.7 1282 1337 37.15% 21.85% 41.01%-0.09 -11.6 3
2018-09-22 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-036.7 1337 1282 41.01% 21.85% 37.15%+0.09 +11.6 13
2018-09-22 Dundee United L 0-240.5 1396 1445 37.90% 21.85% 40.24%-0.08 -11.8 0
2018-09-22 @ Falkirk W 2-040.5 1445 1396 40.24% 21.85% 37.90%+0.08 +11.8 11
2018-09-22 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.0 1429 1444 42.73% 21.81% 35.46%-0.01 -0.2 9
2018-09-22 @ Greenock Morton D 1-160.0 1444 1429 35.46% 21.81% 42.73%+0.01 +0.2 5
2018-09-22 Inverness CT D 0-059.2 1478 1521 38.83% 21.86% 39.31%-0.07 +0.0 11
2018-09-22 @ Ross County D 0-059.2 1521 1478 39.31% 21.86% 38.83%+0.07 -0.0 12
2018-09-22 Queen of the South W 3-256.7 1416 1456 39.16% 21.86% 38.98%-0.06 +5.7 9
2018-09-22 @ Partick Thistle L 2-356.7 1456 1416 38.98% 21.86% 39.16%+0.06 -5.7 8
2018-09-28 Partick Thistle W 1-042.7 1444 1422 48.01% 21.54% 30.45%+0.06 +5.2 8
2018-09-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-142.7 1422 1444 30.45% 21.54% 48.01%-0.06 -5.2 9
2018-09-29 Ayr United L 1-546.1 1428 1349 55.18% 20.77% 24.06%+0.18 -25.5 9
2018-09-29 @ Greenock Morton W 5-146.1 1349 1428 24.06% 20.77% 55.18%-0.18 +25.5 16
2018-09-29 Falkirk L 0-234.6 1271 1384 29.50% 21.46% 49.04%-0.21 -9.6 3
2018-09-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-034.6 1384 1271 49.04% 21.46% 29.50%+0.21 +9.6 3
2018-09-29 Queen of the South D 0-058.5 1521 1451 54.08% 20.92% 25.00%+0.16 -1.2 13
2018-09-29 @ Inverness CT D 0-058.5 1451 1521 25.00% 20.92% 54.08%-0.16 +1.2 9
2018-09-29 Ross County L 1-546.9 1457 1478 41.96% 21.83% 36.21%-0.02 -20.2 11
2018-09-29 @ Dundee United W 5-146.9 1478 1457 36.21% 21.83% 41.96%+0.02 +20.2 14
2018-10-06 Alloa Athletic D 3-367.2 1452 1261 67.01% 18.17% 14.82%+0.40 -1.2 10
2018-10-06 @ Queen of the South D 3-367.2 1261 1452 14.82% 18.17% 67.01%-0.40 +1.2 4
2018-10-06 Dundee United W 2-041.0 1374 1437 36.07% 21.82% 42.11%-0.11 +12.8 19
2018-10-06 @ Ayr United L 0-241.0 1437 1374 42.11% 21.82% 36.07%+0.11 -12.8 11
2018-10-06 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-240.3 1394 1450 36.99% 21.84% 41.16%-0.09 -11.6 3
2018-10-06 @ Falkirk W 2-040.3 1450 1394 41.16% 21.84% 36.99%+0.09 +11.6 11
2018-10-06 Greenock Morton D 1-162.1 1520 1403 59.52% 20.02% 20.45%+0.25 -1.4 14
2018-10-06 @ Inverness CT D 1-162.1 1403 1520 20.45% 20.02% 59.52%-0.25 +1.4 10
2018-10-06 Ross County L 0-241.4 1416 1498 33.43% 21.73% 44.84%-0.14 -10.7 9
2018-10-06 @ Partick Thistle W 2-041.4 1498 1416 44.84% 21.73% 33.43%+0.14 +10.7 17
2018-10-13 Dundee United L 1-251.5 1406 1424 42.32% 21.82% 35.86%-0.02 -6.4 9
2018-10-13 @ Partick Thistle W 2-151.5 1424 1406 35.86% 21.82% 42.32%+0.02 +6.4 14
2018-10-20 Ayr United W 2-146.1 1509 1387 60.04% 19.92% 20.04%+0.26 +3.4 20
2018-10-20 @ Ross County L 1-246.1 1387 1509 20.04% 19.92% 60.04%-0.26 -3.4 19
2018-10-20 Falkirk W 1-040.7 1404 1382 47.90% 21.55% 30.55%+0.06 +5.3 13
2018-10-20 @ Greenock Morton L 0-140.7 1382 1404 30.55% 21.55% 47.90%-0.06 -5.2 3
2018-10-20 Inverness CT D 1-162.6 1431 1519 32.66% 21.69% 45.65%-0.16 +0.4 15
2018-10-20 @ Dundee United D 1-162.6 1519 1431 45.65% 21.69% 32.66%+0.16 -0.5 15
2018-10-20 Partick Thistle W 1-045.1 1262 1399 26.76% 21.17% 52.07%-0.25 +8.1 7
2018-10-20 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-145.1 1399 1262 52.07% 21.17% 26.76%+0.25 -8.1 9
2018-10-20 Queen of the South L 0-148.9 1461 1451 46.34% 21.65% 32.00%+0.04 -7.4 11
2018-10-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.9 1451 1461 32.00% 21.65% 46.34%-0.04 +7.4 13
2018-10-27 Ayr United L 0-145.1 1391 1384 45.90% 21.68% 32.42%+0.03 -7.3 9
2018-10-27 @ Partick Thistle W 1-045.1 1384 1391 32.42% 21.68% 45.90%-0.03 +7.3 22
2018-10-27 Dundee United L 0-244.7 1454 1431 48.00% 21.54% 30.45%+0.06 -14.3 11
2018-10-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-044.7 1431 1454 30.45% 21.54% 48.00%-0.06 +14.3 18
2018-10-27 Falkirk W 2-035.8 1458 1377 55.38% 20.74% 23.88%+0.18 +8.0 16
2018-10-27 @ Queen of the South L 0-235.8 1377 1458 23.88% 20.74% 55.38%-0.18 -8.0 3
2018-10-27 Greenock Morton W 5-037.4 1513 1409 57.93% 20.32% 21.74%+0.22 +17.2 23
2018-10-27 @ Ross County L 0-537.4 1409 1513 21.74% 20.32% 57.93%-0.22 -17.2 13
2018-10-27 Inverness CT D 0-053.5 1270 1518 16.60% 18.87% 64.54%-0.47 +2.0 8
2018-10-27 @ Alloa Athletic D 0-053.5 1518 1270 64.54% 18.87% 16.60%+0.47 -2.0 16
2018-10-30 Alloa Athletic W 3-029.9 1391 1272 59.68% 19.99% 20.33%+0.26 +10.0 25
2018-10-30 @ Ayr United L 0-329.9 1272 1391 20.33% 19.99% 59.68%-0.26 -10.0 8
2018-10-30 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-269.2 1516 1440 54.83% 20.82% 24.35%+0.17 -0.8 17
2018-10-30 @ Inverness CT D 2-269.2 1440 1516 24.35% 20.82% 54.83%-0.17 +0.8 12
2018-10-30 Greenock Morton L 1-255.6 1466 1392 54.49% 20.87% 24.65%+0.17 -8.0 16
2018-10-30 @ Queen of the South W 2-155.6 1392 1466 24.65% 20.87% 54.49%-0.17 +8.0 16
2018-10-30 Ross County D 1-161.1 1369 1530 24.19% 20.79% 55.02%-0.30 +1.1 4
2018-10-30 @ Falkirk D 1-161.1 1530 1369 55.02% 20.79% 24.19%+0.30 -1.1 24
2018-11-03 Ayr United L 0-143.5 1370 1401 40.54% 21.85% 37.61%-0.04 -6.6 4
2018-11-03 @ Falkirk W 1-043.5 1401 1370 37.61% 21.85% 40.54%+0.04 +6.6 28
2018-11-03 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-136.5 1262 1440 22.48% 20.48% 57.04%-0.34 -4.0 8
2018-11-03 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-036.5 1440 1262 57.04% 20.48% 22.48%+0.34 +4.0 15
2018-11-03 Partick Thistle W 5-139.3 1400 1384 47.16% 21.60% 31.24%+0.05 +16.0 19
2018-11-03 @ Greenock Morton L 1-539.3 1384 1400 31.24% 21.60% 47.16%-0.05 -16.0 9
2018-11-03 Queen of the South W 2-041.5 1445 1458 43.13% 21.80% 35.07%-0.01 +11.1 21
2018-11-03 @ Dundee United L 0-241.5 1458 1445 35.07% 21.80% 43.13%+0.01 -11.1 16
2018-11-03 Ross County D 2-272.1 1515 1529 43.07% 21.80% 35.13%-0.01 -0.2 18
2018-11-03 @ Inverness CT D 2-272.1 1529 1515 35.13% 21.80% 43.07%+0.01 +0.2 25
2018-11-10 Alloa Athletic L 0-244.4 1416 1258 63.81% 19.05% 17.13%+0.33 -18.3 19
2018-11-10 @ Greenock Morton W 2-044.4 1258 1416 17.13% 19.05% 63.81%-0.33 +18.4 11
2018-11-10 Dundee United L 0-153.7 1529 1456 54.32% 20.89% 24.79%+0.16 -8.4 25
2018-11-10 @ Ross County W 1-053.7 1456 1529 24.79% 20.89% 54.32%-0.16 +8.4 24
2018-11-10 Falkirk L 0-148.4 1444 1363 55.36% 20.74% 23.90%+0.18 -8.6 15
2018-11-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.4 1363 1444 23.90% 20.74% 55.36%-0.18 +8.6 7
2018-11-10 Inverness CT L 0-141.6 1368 1515 25.60% 21.01% 53.39%-0.27 -4.5 9
2018-11-10 @ Partick Thistle W 1-041.6 1515 1368 53.39% 21.01% 25.60%+0.27 +4.5 21
2018-11-10 Queen of the South D 1-159.4 1408 1447 39.36% 21.86% 38.78%-0.06 -0.0 29
2018-11-10 @ Ayr United D 1-159.4 1447 1408 38.78% 21.86% 39.36%+0.06 +0.0 17
2018-11-17 Greenock Morton D 0-053.1 1408 1398 46.24% 21.66% 32.10%+0.04 -0.5 30
2018-11-17 @ Ayr United D 0-053.1 1398 1408 32.10% 21.66% 46.24%-0.04 +0.5 20
2018-11-17 Inverness CT D 3-372.8 1447 1520 34.69% 21.78% 43.52%-0.13 +0.2 18
2018-11-17 @ Queen of the South D 3-372.8 1520 1447 43.52% 21.78% 34.69%+0.13 -0.2 22
2018-11-17 Partick Thistle D 1-156.9 1372 1363 46.09% 21.67% 32.24%+0.04 -0.5 8
2018-11-17 @ Falkirk D 1-156.9 1363 1372 32.24% 21.67% 46.09%-0.04 +0.5 10
2018-11-20 Alloa Athletic W 4-240.0 1465 1277 66.76% 18.24% 15.00%+0.39 +4.0 27
2018-11-20 @ Dundee United L 2-440.0 1277 1465 15.00% 18.24% 66.76%-0.39 -4.0 11
2018-11-24 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-149.5 1520 1436 55.78% 20.68% 23.54%+0.19 +4.0 28
2018-11-24 @ Ross County L 1-249.5 1436 1520 23.54% 20.68% 55.78%-0.19 -4.0 15
2018-11-30 Ayr United L 0-545.5 1469 1407 53.01% 21.06% 25.94%+0.14 -36.4 27
2018-11-30 @ Dundee United W 5-045.5 1407 1469 25.94% 21.06% 53.01%-0.14 +36.4 33
2018-12-01 Falkirk L 2-363.6 1520 1371 62.81% 19.30% 17.89%+0.31 -8.6 22
2018-12-01 @ Inverness CT W 3-263.6 1371 1520 17.89% 19.30% 62.81%-0.31 +8.6 11
2018-12-01 Greenock Morton W 3-035.9 1432 1398 49.40% 21.43% 29.17%+0.09 +13.8 18
2018-12-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-335.9 1398 1432 29.17% 21.43% 49.40%-0.09 -13.8 20
2018-12-01 Partick Thistle W 1-038.9 1447 1364 55.65% 20.70% 23.65%+0.19 +4.2 21
2018-12-01 @ Queen of the South L 0-138.9 1364 1447 23.65% 20.70% 55.65%-0.19 -4.2 10
2018-12-01 Ross County L 0-135.8 1273 1524 16.33% 18.77% 64.91%-0.48 -2.9 11
2018-12-01 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-035.8 1524 1273 64.91% 18.77% 16.33%+0.48 +2.9 31
2018-12-08 Alloa Athletic D 2-262.3 1380 1270 58.74% 20.17% 21.09%+0.24 -1.0 12
2018-12-08 @ Falkirk D 2-262.3 1270 1380 21.09% 20.17% 58.74%-0.24 +1.0 12
2018-12-08 Dundee United D 1-158.5 1385 1432 38.15% 21.86% 39.99%-0.08 +0.1 21
2018-12-08 @ Greenock Morton D 1-158.5 1432 1385 39.99% 21.86% 38.15%+0.08 -0.1 28
2018-12-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-041.8 1360 1446 32.91% 21.70% 45.39%-0.15 +13.6 13
2018-12-08 @ Partick Thistle L 0-241.8 1446 1360 45.39% 21.70% 32.91%+0.15 -13.6 18
2018-12-08 Queen of the South D 1-163.9 1527 1451 54.74% 20.83% 24.43%+0.17 -1.1 32
2018-12-08 @ Ross County D 1-163.9 1451 1527 24.43% 20.83% 54.74%-0.17 +1.1 22
2018-12-15 Alloa Athletic D 2-262.2 1373 1271 57.85% 20.34% 21.82%+0.22 -1.0 14
2018-12-15 @ Partick Thistle D 2-262.2 1271 1373 21.82% 20.34% 57.85%-0.22 +1.0 13
2018-12-15 Dundee United D 1-162.6 1511 1432 55.07% 20.78% 24.14%+0.18 -1.1 23
2018-12-15 @ Inverness CT D 1-162.6 1432 1511 24.14% 20.78% 55.07%-0.18 +1.1 29
2018-12-15 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-055.2 1452 1432 47.68% 21.57% 30.76%+0.06 -0.7 23
2018-12-15 @ Queen of the South D 0-055.2 1432 1452 30.76% 21.57% 47.68%-0.06 +0.7 19
2018-12-15 Greenock Morton D 0-052.2 1379 1385 44.13% 21.76% 34.11%+0.01 -0.4 13
2018-12-15 @ Falkirk D 0-052.2 1385 1379 34.11% 21.76% 44.13%-0.01 +0.4 22
2018-12-15 Ross County D 3-372.9 1444 1526 33.37% 21.73% 44.90%-0.15 +0.2 34
2018-12-15 @ Ayr United D 3-372.9 1526 1444 44.90% 21.73% 33.37%+0.15 -0.2 33
2018-12-22 Ayr United D 0-054.9 1433 1444 43.37% 21.79% 34.84%+0.00 -0.3 20
2018-12-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-054.9 1444 1433 34.84% 21.79% 43.37%+0.00 +0.3 35
2018-12-22 Falkirk W 2-146.1 1433 1379 52.14% 21.16% 26.70%+0.13 +4.4 32
2018-12-22 @ Dundee United L 1-246.1 1379 1433 26.70% 21.16% 52.14%-0.13 -4.4 13
2018-12-22 Inverness CT L 1-248.9 1385 1510 28.14% 21.33% 50.53%-0.23 -4.6 22
2018-12-22 @ Greenock Morton W 2-148.9 1510 1385 50.53% 21.33% 28.14%+0.23 +4.6 26
2018-12-22 Partick Thistle W 2-035.2 1526 1372 63.39% 19.16% 17.45%+0.33 +5.9 36
2018-12-22 @ Ross County L 0-235.2 1372 1526 17.45% 19.16% 63.39%-0.33 -5.9 14
2018-12-22 Queen of the South W 2-043.5 1272 1452 22.29% 20.44% 57.28%-0.34 +16.7 16
2018-12-22 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-243.5 1452 1272 57.28% 20.44% 22.29%+0.34 -16.7 23
2018-12-29 Ayr United D 1-160.2 1435 1444 43.67% 21.78% 34.55%+0.00 -0.3 24
2018-12-29 @ Queen of the South D 1-160.2 1444 1435 34.55% 21.78% 43.67%+0.00 +0.3 36
2018-12-29 Dundee United W 2-152.5 1288 1438 25.40% 20.98% 53.62%-0.28 +7.9 19
2018-12-29 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-252.5 1438 1288 53.62% 20.98% 25.40%+0.28 -7.9 32
2018-12-29 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-448.9 1374 1432 36.69% 21.84% 41.47%-0.10 -8.9 13
2018-12-29 @ Falkirk W 4-248.9 1432 1374 41.47% 21.84% 36.69%+0.10 +8.9 23
2018-12-29 Greenock Morton L 1-249.9 1366 1380 42.94% 21.80% 35.26%-0.01 -6.5 14
2018-12-29 @ Partick Thistle W 2-149.9 1380 1366 35.26% 21.80% 42.94%+0.01 +6.5 25
2018-12-29 Inverness CT W 2-155.4 1532 1514 47.27% 21.60% 31.13%+0.05 +5.0 39
2018-12-29 @ Ross County L 1-255.4 1514 1532 31.13% 21.60% 47.27%-0.05 -5.0 26
2019-01-04 Ross County W 1-051.3 1387 1537 25.33% 20.97% 53.70%-0.28 +8.4 28
2019-01-04 @ Greenock Morton L 0-151.3 1537 1387 53.70% 20.97% 25.33%+0.28 -8.4 39
2019-01-05 Alloa Athletic D 2-263.7 1441 1296 62.49% 19.38% 18.13%+0.31 -1.2 24
2019-01-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-263.7 1296 1441 18.13% 19.38% 62.49%-0.31 +1.2 20
2019-01-05 Falkirk L 0-148.3 1444 1365 55.12% 20.78% 24.10%+0.18 -8.5 36
2019-01-05 @ Ayr United W 1-048.3 1365 1444 24.10% 20.78% 55.12%-0.18 +8.5 16
2019-01-05 Partick Thistle D 1-158.1 1430 1360 54.05% 20.92% 25.02%+0.16 -1.0 33
2019-01-05 @ Dundee United D 1-158.1 1360 1430 25.02% 20.92% 54.05%-0.16 +1.0 15
2019-01-05 Queen of the South L 1-258.4 1509 1435 54.59% 20.85% 24.56%+0.17 -8.0 26
2019-01-05 @ Inverness CT W 2-158.4 1435 1509 24.56% 20.85% 54.59%-0.17 +8.0 27
2019-01-12 Ayr United W 1-043.3 1501 1436 53.49% 21.00% 25.51%+0.15 +4.5 29
2019-01-12 @ Inverness CT L 0-143.3 1436 1501 25.51% 21.00% 53.49%-0.15 -4.5 36
2019-01-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-044.1 1429 1440 43.35% 21.79% 34.86%+0.00 +5.9 36
2019-01-12 @ Dundee United L 0-144.1 1440 1429 34.86% 21.79% 43.35%+0.00 -5.9 24
2019-01-12 Falkirk D 1-156.8 1361 1374 43.08% 21.80% 35.12%-0.01 -0.3 16
2019-01-12 @ Partick Thistle D 1-156.8 1374 1361 35.12% 21.80% 43.08%+0.01 +0.3 17
2019-01-12 Greenock Morton W 2-150.2 1298 1395 31.43% 21.62% 46.96%-0.18 +7.0 23
2019-01-12 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-250.2 1395 1298 46.96% 21.62% 31.43%+0.18 -7.0 28
2019-01-12 Ross County W 4-045.6 1443 1529 32.97% 21.71% 45.32%-0.15 +25.9 30
2019-01-12 @ Queen of the South L 0-445.6 1529 1443 45.32% 21.71% 32.97%+0.15 -25.9 39
2019-01-25 Dundee United W 1-043.7 1431 1435 44.43% 21.75% 33.82%+0.01 +5.7 39
2019-01-25 @ Ayr United L 0-143.7 1435 1431 33.82% 21.75% 44.43%-0.01 -5.7 36
2019-01-26 Alloa Athletic W 2-031.4 1503 1305 67.69% 17.96% 14.35%+0.41 +4.9 42
2019-01-26 @ Ross County L 0-231.4 1305 1503 14.35% 17.96% 67.69%-0.41 -4.9 23
2019-01-26 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-053.4 1388 1434 38.41% 21.86% 39.74%-0.07 +0.0 29
2019-01-26 @ Greenock Morton D 0-053.4 1434 1388 39.74% 21.86% 38.41%+0.07 -0.0 25
2019-01-26 Inverness CT D 2-266.5 1374 1506 27.33% 21.24% 51.43%-0.24 +0.6 18
2019-01-26 @ Falkirk D 2-266.5 1506 1374 51.43% 21.24% 27.33%+0.24 -0.6 30
2019-01-26 Queen of the South W 2-153.2 1360 1469 30.13% 21.52% 48.36%-0.20 +7.2 19
2019-01-26 @ Partick Thistle L 1-253.2 1469 1360 48.36% 21.52% 30.13%+0.20 -7.2 30
2019-01-29 Inverness CT L 2-357.9 1437 1505 35.29% 21.80% 42.90%-0.12 -5.3 39
2019-01-29 @ Ayr United W 3-257.9 1505 1437 42.90% 21.80% 35.29%+0.12 +5.3 33
2019-02-02 Ayr United L 1-340.9 1300 1432 27.31% 21.24% 51.46%-0.24 -7.8 23
2019-02-02 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-140.9 1432 1300 51.46% 21.24% 27.31%+0.24 +7.8 42
2019-02-02 Greenock Morton W 2-146.8 1429 1388 50.35% 21.35% 28.30%+0.10 +4.7 39
2019-02-02 @ Dundee United L 1-246.8 1388 1429 28.30% 21.35% 50.35%-0.10 -4.6 29
2019-02-02 Partick Thistle L 1-258.1 1511 1368 62.28% 19.43% 18.29%+0.30 -9.0 33
2019-02-02 @ Inverness CT W 2-158.1 1368 1511 18.29% 19.43% 62.28%-0.30 +9.0 22
2019-02-02 Queen of the South W 3-041.0 1375 1461 32.84% 21.70% 45.46%-0.15 +19.8 21
2019-02-02 @ Falkirk L 0-341.0 1461 1375 45.46% 21.70% 32.84%+0.15 -19.8 30
2019-02-02 Ross County L 1-252.6 1434 1508 34.60% 21.78% 43.61%-0.13 -5.5 25
2019-02-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-152.6 1508 1434 43.61% 21.78% 34.60%+0.13 +5.5 45
2019-02-09 Falkirk L 1-245.3 1292 1395 30.80% 21.57% 47.63%-0.19 -5.0 23
2019-02-09 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-145.3 1395 1292 47.63% 21.57% 30.80%+0.19 +5.0 24
2019-02-16 Ayr United D 0-053.4 1384 1440 37.01% 21.84% 41.15%-0.09 +0.2 30
2019-02-16 @ Greenock Morton D 0-053.4 1440 1384 41.15% 21.84% 37.01%+0.09 -0.2 43
2019-02-16 Dundee United L 0-147.6 1442 1434 45.99% 21.67% 32.33%+0.04 -7.3 30
2019-02-16 @ Queen of the South W 1-047.6 1434 1442 32.33% 21.67% 45.99%-0.04 +7.3 42
2019-02-16 Inverness CT W 1-048.7 1429 1502 34.66% 21.78% 43.55%-0.13 +7.0 28
2019-02-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-148.7 1502 1429 43.55% 21.78% 34.66%+0.13 -7.0 33
2019-02-16 Partick Thistle L 0-235.6 1287 1377 32.44% 21.68% 45.88%-0.16 -10.4 23
2019-02-16 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-035.6 1377 1287 45.88% 21.68% 32.44%+0.16 +10.4 25
2019-02-23 Alloa Athletic L 1-254.8 1434 1276 63.81% 19.06% 17.14%+0.33 -9.2 30
2019-02-23 @ Queen of the South W 2-154.8 1276 1434 17.14% 19.06% 63.81%-0.33 +9.2 26
2019-02-23 Dundee United D 1-159.1 1400 1441 39.06% 21.86% 39.08%-0.06 +0.0 25
2019-02-23 @ Falkirk D 1-159.1 1441 1400 39.08% 21.86% 39.06%+0.06 +0.0 43
2019-02-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-147.5 1439 1436 45.41% 21.70% 32.88%+0.03 -7.2 43
2019-02-23 @ Ayr United W 1-047.5 1436 1439 32.88% 21.70% 45.41%-0.03 +7.2 31
2019-02-23 Greenock Morton W 1-039.8 1495 1384 58.81% 20.16% 21.03%+0.24 +3.8 36
2019-02-23 @ Inverness CT L 0-139.8 1384 1495 21.03% 20.16% 58.81%-0.24 -3.8 30
2019-02-23 Ross County L 2-448.7 1387 1513 28.01% 21.31% 50.68%-0.23 -7.1 25
2019-02-23 @ Partick Thistle W 4-248.7 1513 1387 50.68% 21.31% 28.01%+0.23 +7.1 48
2019-02-26 Ayr United W 3-254.2 1520 1432 56.19% 20.61% 23.20%+0.19 +3.7 51
2019-02-26 @ Ross County L 2-354.2 1432 1520 23.20% 20.61% 56.19%-0.19 -3.7 43
2019-02-26 Inverness CT W 1-048.4 1441 1498 36.80% 21.84% 41.36%-0.09 +6.7 46
2019-02-26 @ Dundee United L 0-148.4 1498 1441 41.36% 21.84% 36.80%+0.09 -6.7 36
2019-02-26 Partick Thistle W 3-034.5 1443 1380 53.16% 21.04% 25.80%+0.14 +12.4 34
2019-02-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-334.5 1380 1443 25.80% 21.04% 53.16%-0.14 -12.4 25
2019-02-26 Queen of the South W 1-043.9 1380 1425 38.53% 21.86% 39.61%-0.07 +6.5 33
2019-02-26 @ Greenock Morton L 0-143.9 1425 1380 39.61% 21.86% 38.53%+0.07 -6.5 30
2019-03-01 Falkirk D 1-157.8 1387 1400 43.09% 21.80% 35.11%-0.01 -0.3 34
2019-03-01 @ Greenock Morton D 1-157.8 1400 1387 35.11% 21.80% 43.09%+0.01 +0.3 26
2019-03-02 Queen of the South W 1-042.4 1455 1419 49.82% 21.40% 28.78%+0.09 +5.0 37
2019-03-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-142.4 1419 1455 28.78% 21.40% 49.82%-0.09 -5.0 30
2019-03-08 Ayr United W 2-040.0 1400 1428 40.89% 21.85% 37.26%-0.04 +11.6 29
2019-03-08 @ Falkirk L 0-240.0 1428 1400 37.26% 21.85% 40.89%+0.04 -11.7 43
2019-03-09 Dundee United W 2-151.7 1368 1448 33.69% 21.74% 44.56%-0.14 +6.7 28
2019-03-09 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.7 1448 1368 44.56% 21.74% 33.69%+0.14 -6.7 46
2019-03-09 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-137.3 1286 1460 22.80% 20.54% 56.66%-0.33 -4.1 26
2019-03-09 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-037.3 1460 1286 56.66% 20.54% 22.80%+0.33 +4.1 40
2019-03-09 Greenock Morton W 2-036.1 1524 1386 61.72% 19.56% 18.72%+0.29 +6.4 54
2019-03-09 @ Ross County L 0-236.1 1386 1524 18.72% 19.56% 61.72%-0.29 -6.4 34
2019-03-09 Inverness CT L 0-241.2 1414 1492 33.98% 21.76% 44.26%-0.14 -10.8 30
2019-03-09 @ Queen of the South W 2-041.2 1492 1414 44.26% 21.76% 33.98%+0.14 +10.8 39
2019-03-12 Falkirk W 2-147.8 1530 1412 59.68% 19.99% 20.33%+0.26 +3.4 57
2019-03-12 @ Ross County L 1-247.8 1412 1530 20.33% 19.99% 59.68%-0.26 -3.4 29
2019-03-16 Partick Thistle D 1-157.8 1408 1374 49.45% 21.43% 29.12%+0.09 -0.7 30
2019-03-16 @ Falkirk D 1-157.8 1374 1408 29.12% 21.43% 49.45%-0.09 +0.7 29
2019-03-19 Ross County W 1-051.1 1441 1534 32.07% 21.66% 46.27%-0.17 +7.3 49
2019-03-19 @ Dundee United L 0-151.1 1534 1441 46.27% 21.66% 32.07%+0.17 -7.4 57
2019-03-22 Inverness CT L 1-248.3 1375 1503 27.82% 21.29% 50.89%-0.23 -4.6 29
2019-03-22 @ Partick Thistle W 2-148.3 1503 1375 50.89% 21.29% 27.82%+0.23 +4.6 42
2019-03-23 Alloa Athletic W 2-140.8 1448 1282 64.70% 18.82% 16.48%+0.35 +2.8 52
2019-03-23 @ Dundee United L 1-240.8 1282 1448 16.48% 18.82% 64.70%-0.35 -2.8 26
2019-03-26 Alloa Athletic W 3-245.1 1507 1279 70.37% 17.07% 12.55%+0.47 +2.0 45
2019-03-26 @ Inverness CT L 2-345.1 1279 1507 12.55% 17.07% 70.37%-0.47 -2.0 26
2019-03-26 Dundee United L 0-149.1 1464 1451 46.72% 21.63% 31.65%+0.05 -7.4 40
2019-03-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-049.1 1451 1464 31.65% 21.63% 46.72%-0.05 +7.4 55
2019-03-29 Ayr United L 0-148.8 1457 1417 50.28% 21.35% 28.37%+0.10 -7.9 40
2019-03-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.8 1417 1457 28.37% 21.35% 50.28%-0.10 +7.9 46
2019-03-30 Falkirk D 0-056.7 1509 1407 57.78% 20.35% 21.87%+0.22 -1.4 46
2019-03-30 @ Inverness CT D 0-056.7 1407 1509 21.87% 20.35% 57.78%-0.22 +1.4 31
2019-03-30 Partick Thistle L 0-339.3 1380 1370 46.21% 21.66% 32.13%+0.04 -20.1 34
2019-03-30 @ Greenock Morton W 3-039.3 1370 1380 32.13% 21.66% 46.21%-0.04 +20.1 32
2019-03-30 Queen of the South L 1-255.1 1459 1403 52.26% 21.15% 26.60%+0.13 -7.7 55
2019-03-30 @ Dundee United W 2-155.1 1403 1459 26.60% 21.15% 52.26%-0.13 +7.7 33
2019-03-30 Ross County W 1-050.5 1277 1526 16.47% 18.82% 64.71%-0.48 +9.9 29
2019-03-30 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-150.5 1526 1277 64.71% 18.82% 16.47%+0.48 -9.8 57
2019-04-02 Falkirk D 1-158.6 1411 1409 45.15% 21.72% 33.14%+0.02 -0.4 34
2019-04-02 @ Queen of the South D 1-158.6 1409 1411 33.14% 21.72% 45.15%-0.02 +0.4 32
2019-04-02 Greenock Morton D 1-158.0 1425 1360 53.40% 21.01% 25.59%+0.15 -1.0 47
2019-04-02 @ Ayr United D 1-158.0 1360 1425 25.59% 21.01% 53.40%-0.15 +1.0 35
2019-04-02 Ross County L 1-258.4 1508 1516 43.68% 21.78% 34.54%+0.00 -6.6 46
2019-04-02 @ Inverness CT W 2-158.4 1516 1508 34.54% 21.78% 43.68%+0.00 +6.6 60
2019-04-05 Dundee United D 1-163.7 1523 1451 54.29% 20.89% 24.81%+0.16 -1.0 61
2019-04-05 @ Ross County D 1-163.7 1451 1523 24.81% 20.89% 54.29%-0.16 +1.0 56
2019-04-06 Alloa Athletic L 1-253.7 1409 1287 60.10% 19.91% 19.99%+0.26 -8.7 32
2019-04-06 @ Falkirk W 2-153.7 1287 1409 19.99% 19.91% 60.10%-0.26 +8.7 32
2019-04-06 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-265.1 1390 1449 36.62% 21.84% 41.54%-0.10 +0.1 33
2019-04-06 @ Partick Thistle D 2-265.1 1449 1390 41.54% 21.84% 36.62%+0.10 -0.1 41
2019-04-06 Greenock Morton D 1-157.6 1410 1361 51.46% 21.24% 27.31%+0.12 -0.9 35
2019-04-06 @ Queen of the South D 1-157.6 1361 1410 27.31% 21.24% 51.46%-0.12 +0.8 36
2019-04-06 Inverness CT L 0-145.7 1424 1501 34.08% 21.76% 44.16%-0.13 -5.8 47
2019-04-06 @ Ayr United W 1-045.7 1501 1424 44.16% 21.76% 34.08%+0.13 +5.8 49
2019-04-09 Alloa Athletic L 1-251.6 1362 1295 53.57% 20.99% 25.44%+0.15 -7.9 36
2019-04-09 @ Greenock Morton W 2-151.6 1295 1362 25.44% 20.99% 53.57%-0.15 +7.9 35
2019-04-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-044.3 1522 1449 54.40% 20.88% 24.73%+0.16 +4.4 64
2019-04-09 @ Ross County L 0-144.3 1449 1522 24.73% 20.88% 54.40%-0.16 -4.4 41
2019-04-09 Queen of the South W 1-042.2 1418 1409 46.09% 21.67% 32.24%+0.04 +5.5 50
2019-04-09 @ Ayr United L 0-142.2 1409 1418 32.24% 21.67% 46.09%-0.04 -5.5 35
2019-04-12 Ayr United W 2-148.9 1452 1423 48.75% 21.49% 29.77%+0.08 +4.8 59
2019-04-12 @ Dundee United L 1-248.9 1423 1452 29.77% 21.49% 48.75%-0.08 -4.9 50
2019-04-13 Falkirk L 0-148.1 1445 1401 50.79% 21.30% 27.91%+0.11 -8.0 41
2019-04-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.1 1401 1445 27.91% 21.30% 50.79%-0.11 +8.0 35
2019-04-13 Partick Thistle D 0-056.9 1526 1391 61.53% 19.60% 18.87%+0.29 -1.7 65
2019-04-13 @ Ross County D 0-056.9 1391 1526 18.87% 19.60% 61.53%-0.29 +1.7 34
2019-04-13 Queen of the South W 1-044.4 1303 1404 31.07% 21.59% 47.34%-0.18 +7.5 38
2019-04-13 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-144.4 1404 1303 47.34% 21.59% 31.07%+0.18 -7.5 35
2019-04-16 Inverness CT D 2-266.0 1354 1507 25.01% 20.92% 54.07%-0.29 +0.8 37
2019-04-16 @ Greenock Morton D 2-266.0 1507 1354 54.07% 20.92% 25.01%+0.29 -0.8 50
2019-04-19 Ross County L 1-347.5 1419 1525 30.39% 21.54% 48.07%-0.19 -8.5 50
2019-04-19 @ Ayr United W 3-147.5 1525 1419 48.07% 21.54% 30.39%+0.19 +8.5 68
2019-04-20 Alloa Athletic W 2-143.2 1392 1311 55.43% 20.73% 23.84%+0.18 +4.0 37
2019-04-20 @ Partick Thistle L 1-243.2 1311 1392 23.84% 20.73% 55.43%-0.18 -4.0 38
2019-04-20 Dundee United L 0-248.3 1506 1457 51.44% 21.24% 27.32%+0.12 -15.2 50
2019-04-20 @ Inverness CT W 2-048.3 1457 1506 27.32% 21.24% 51.44%-0.12 +15.2 62
2019-04-20 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-150.5 1396 1437 39.21% 21.86% 38.93%-0.06 +6.0 38
2019-04-20 @ Queen of the South L 1-250.5 1437 1396 38.93% 21.86% 39.21%+0.06 -6.0 41
2019-04-20 Greenock Morton L 0-242.8 1408 1355 52.03% 21.17% 26.79%+0.13 -15.3 35
2019-04-20 @ Falkirk W 2-042.8 1355 1408 26.79% 21.17% 52.03%-0.13 +15.3 40
2019-04-23 Partick Thistle L 0-146.0 1410 1396 46.78% 21.63% 31.59%+0.05 -7.4 50
2019-04-23 @ Ayr United W 1-046.0 1396 1410 31.59% 21.63% 46.78%-0.05 +7.4 40
2019-04-26 Queen of the South W 4-035.9 1533 1402 61.00% 19.72% 19.28%+0.28 +12.4 71
2019-04-26 @ Ross County L 0-435.9 1402 1533 19.28% 19.72% 61.00%-0.28 -12.4 38
2019-04-27 Ayr United L 1-251.7 1404 1403 45.06% 21.72% 33.22%+0.02 -6.8 40
2019-04-27 @ Partick Thistle W 2-151.7 1403 1404 33.22% 21.72% 45.06%-0.02 +6.8 53
2019-04-27 Falkirk W 2-036.7 1472 1393 55.09% 20.78% 24.13%+0.18 +8.1 65
2019-04-27 @ Dundee United L 0-236.7 1393 1472 24.13% 20.78% 55.09%-0.18 -8.1 35
2019-04-27 Greenock Morton L 0-147.5 1431 1370 52.89% 21.07% 26.04%+0.14 -8.2 41
2019-04-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.5 1370 1431 26.04% 21.07% 52.89%-0.14 +8.2 43
2019-04-27 Inverness CT L 1-244.1 1307 1491 21.90% 20.35% 57.75%-0.35 -3.7 38
2019-04-27 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-144.1 1491 1307 57.75% 20.35% 21.90%+0.35 +3.7 53
2019-05-04 Alloa Athletic D 1-157.0 1409 1303 58.31% 20.25% 21.44%+0.23 -1.3 54
2019-05-04 @ Ayr United D 1-157.0 1303 1409 21.44% 20.25% 58.31%-0.23 +1.3 39
2019-05-04 Dundee United W 1-047.6 1378 1480 30.90% 21.58% 47.52%-0.18 +7.5 46
2019-05-04 @ Greenock Morton L 0-147.6 1480 1378 47.52% 21.58% 30.90%+0.18 -7.5 65
2019-05-04 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-042.4 1495 1422 54.29% 20.89% 24.82%+0.16 +4.4 56
2019-05-04 @ Inverness CT L 0-142.4 1422 1495 24.82% 20.89% 54.29%-0.16 -4.4 41
2019-05-04 Partick Thistle L 0-339.4 1390 1397 43.93% 21.77% 34.30%+0.01 -19.3 38
2019-05-04 @ Queen of the South W 3-039.4 1397 1390 34.30% 21.77% 43.93%-0.01 +19.3 43
2019-05-04 Ross County W 3-263.1 1385 1546 24.22% 20.80% 54.98%-0.30 +7.6 38
2019-05-04 @ Falkirk L 2-363.1 1546 1385 54.98% 20.80% 24.22%+0.30 -7.6 71

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-03-30 16.47% @ Alloa Athletic 1277 1 Ross County 1526 0
2 2018-11-10 17.13% Alloa Athletic 1258 2 @ Greenock Morton 1416 0
3 2019-02-23 17.14% Alloa Athletic 1276 2 @ Queen of the South 1434 1
4 2018-12-01 17.89% Falkirk 1371 3 @ Inverness CT 1520 2
5 2019-02-02 18.29% Partick Thistle 1368 2 @ Inverness CT 1511 1
6 2019-04-06 19.99% Alloa Athletic 1287 2 @ Falkirk 1409 1
7 2018-12-22 22.29% @ Alloa Athletic 1272 2 Queen of the South 1452 0
8 2018-11-10 23.90% Falkirk 1363 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1444 0
9 2018-09-29 24.06% Ayr United 1349 5 @ Greenock Morton 1428 1
10 2019-01-05 24.10% Falkirk 1365 1 @ Ayr United 1444 0
11 2019-05-04 24.22% @ Falkirk 1385 3 Ross County 1546 2
12 2019-01-05 24.56% Queen of the South 1435 2 @ Inverness CT 1509 1
13 2018-10-30 24.65% Greenock Morton 1392 2 @ Queen of the South 1466 1
14 2018-11-10 24.79% Dundee United 1456 1 @ Ross County 1529 0
15 2018-08-25 24.92% @ Ayr United 1330 4 Dunfermline Athletic 1483 1
16 2019-01-04 25.33% @ Greenock Morton 1387 1 Ross County 1537 0
17 2018-12-29 25.40% @ Alloa Athletic 1288 2 Dundee United 1438 1
18 2019-04-09 25.44% Alloa Athletic 1295 2 @ Greenock Morton 1362 1
19 2018-11-30 25.94% Ayr United 1407 5 @ Dundee United 1469 0
20 2019-04-27 26.04% Greenock Morton 1370 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1431 0
21 2019-03-30 26.60% Queen of the South 1403 2 @ Dundee United 1459 1
22 2018-10-20 26.76% @ Alloa Athletic 1262 1 Partick Thistle 1399 0
23 2019-04-20 26.79% Greenock Morton 1355 2 @ Falkirk 1408 0
24 2019-04-20 27.32% Dundee United 1457 2 @ Inverness CT 1506 0
25 2019-04-13 27.91% Falkirk 1401 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1445 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-11-30 36.43 Ayr United 5 1407 25.94% @ Dundee United 0 1469 53.01% 21.06%
2 2019-01-12 25.86 @ Queen of the South 4 1443 32.97% Ross County 0 1529 45.32% 21.71%
3 2018-09-29 25.51 Ayr United 5 1349 24.06% @ Greenock Morton 1 1428 55.18% 20.77%
4 2018-08-25 20.27 Queen of the South 3 1418 31.72% @ Falkirk 0 1431 46.64% 21.64%
5 2018-09-29 20.23 Ross County 5 1478 36.21% @ Dundee United 1 1457 41.96% 21.83%
6 2019-03-30 20.12 Partick Thistle 3 1370 32.13% @ Greenock Morton 0 1380 46.21% 21.66%
7 2019-02-02 19.84 @ Falkirk 3 1375 32.84% Queen of the South 0 1461 45.46% 21.70%
8 2018-08-25 19.44 @ Ayr United 4 1330 24.92% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1483 54.17% 20.91%
9 2019-05-04 19.29 Partick Thistle 3 1397 34.30% @ Queen of the South 0 1390 43.93% 21.77%
10 2018-11-10 18.35 Alloa Athletic 2 1258 17.13% @ Greenock Morton 0 1416 63.81% 19.05%
11 2018-09-01 18.10 @ Queen of the South 5 1439 56.37% Ayr United 0 1349 23.05% 20.59%
12 2018-09-01 17.84 Inverness CT 3 1500 38.29% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1464 39.86% 21.86%
13 2018-10-27 17.16 @ Ross County 5 1513 57.93% Greenock Morton 0 1409 21.74% 20.32%
14 2018-12-22 16.67 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1272 22.29% Queen of the South 0 1452 57.28% 20.44%
15 2018-11-03 15.96 @ Greenock Morton 5 1400 47.16% Partick Thistle 1 1384 31.24% 21.60%
16 2019-04-20 15.33 Greenock Morton 2 1355 26.79% @ Falkirk 0 1408 52.03% 21.17%
17 2019-04-20 15.17 Dundee United 2 1457 27.32% @ Inverness CT 0 1506 51.44% 21.24%
18 2018-08-04 14.72 @ Ayr United 2 1313 28.91% Partick Thistle 0 1431 49.68% 21.41%
19 2018-10-27 14.30 Dundee United 2 1431 30.45% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1454 48.00% 21.54%
20 2018-12-01 13.84 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1432 49.40% Greenock Morton 0 1398 29.17% 21.43%
21 2018-12-08 13.64 @ Partick Thistle 2 1360 32.91% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1446 45.39% 21.70%
22 2018-10-06 12.83 @ Ayr United 2 1374 36.07% Dundee United 0 1437 42.11% 21.82%
23 2018-08-11 12.69 Ross County 3 1463 29.18% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1496 49.39% 21.43%
24 2019-02-26 12.44 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1443 53.16% Partick Thistle 0 1380 25.80% 21.04%
25 2019-04-26 12.42 @ Ross County 4 1533 61.00% Queen of the South 0 1402 19.28% 19.72%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-12-15 72.9 @ Ayr United 3 1444 33.37% Ross County 3 1526 44.90% 21.73%
2 2018-11-17 72.8 @ Queen of the South 3 1447 34.69% Inverness CT 3 1520 43.52% 21.78%
3 2018-11-03 72.1 @ Inverness CT 2 1515 43.07% Ross County 2 1529 35.13% 21.80%
4 2018-10-30 69.2 @ Inverness CT 2 1516 54.83% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1440 24.35% 20.82%
5 2018-10-06 67.2 @ Queen of the South 3 1452 67.01% Alloa Athletic 3 1261 14.82% 18.17%
6 2019-01-26 66.5 @ Falkirk 2 1374 27.33% Inverness CT 2 1506 51.43% 21.24%
7 2019-04-16 66.0 @ Greenock Morton 2 1354 25.01% Inverness CT 2 1507 54.07% 20.92%
8 2018-08-04 65.3 @ Greenock Morton 2 1419 44.13% Queen of the South 2 1425 34.11% 21.76%
9 2018-08-25 65.1 @ Inverness CT 2 1501 69.99% Alloa Athletic 2 1278 12.80% 17.21%
10 2019-04-06 65.1 @ Partick Thistle 2 1390 36.62% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1449 41.54% 21.84%
11 2018-12-08 63.9 @ Ross County 1 1527 54.74% Queen of the South 1 1451 24.43% 20.83%
12 2019-01-05 63.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1441 62.49% Alloa Athletic 2 1296 18.13% 19.38%
13 2019-04-05 63.7 @ Ross County 1 1523 54.29% Dundee United 1 1451 24.81% 20.89%
14 2018-12-01 63.6 Falkirk 3 1371 17.89% @ Inverness CT 2 1520 62.81% 19.30%
15 2019-05-04 63.1 @ Falkirk 3 1385 24.22% Ross County 2 1546 54.98% 20.80%
16 2018-10-20 62.6 @ Dundee United 1 1431 32.66% Inverness CT 1 1519 45.65% 21.69%
17 2018-12-15 62.6 @ Inverness CT 1 1511 55.07% Dundee United 1 1432 24.14% 20.78%
18 2018-12-08 62.3 @ Falkirk 2 1380 58.74% Alloa Athletic 2 1270 21.09% 20.17%
19 2018-12-15 62.2 @ Partick Thistle 2 1373 57.85% Alloa Athletic 2 1271 21.82% 20.34%
20 2018-10-06 62.1 @ Inverness CT 1 1520 59.52% Greenock Morton 1 1403 20.45% 20.02%
21 2018-10-30 61.1 @ Falkirk 1 1369 24.19% Ross County 1 1530 55.02% 20.79%
22 2018-12-29 60.2 @ Queen of the South 1 1435 43.67% Ayr United 1 1444 34.55% 21.78%
23 2018-09-15 60.1 @ Dundee United 1 1446 47.35% Greenock Morton 1 1428 31.06% 21.59%
24 2018-09-22 60.0 @ Greenock Morton 1 1429 42.73% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1444 35.46% 21.81%
25 2018-11-10 59.4 @ Ayr United 1 1408 39.36% Queen of the South 1 1447 38.78% 21.86%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-10-30 29.9 @ Ayr United 3 1391 59.68% Alloa Athletic 0 1272 20.33% 19.99%
2 2019-01-26 31.4 @ Ross County 2 1503 67.69% Alloa Athletic 0 1305 14.35% 17.96%
3 2018-09-01 34.1 @ Queen of the South 5 1439 56.37% Ayr United 0 1349 23.05% 20.59%
4 2018-08-11 34.4 Greenock Morton 2 1419 51.49% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1287 27.28% 21.23%
5 2019-02-26 34.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1443 53.16% Partick Thistle 0 1380 25.80% 21.04%
6 2018-09-29 34.6 Falkirk 2 1384 49.04% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1271 29.50% 21.46%
7 2018-08-04 34.8 @ Ross County 1 1460 65.05% Alloa Athletic 0 1289 16.22% 18.73%
8 2018-12-22 35.2 @ Ross County 2 1526 63.39% Partick Thistle 0 1372 17.45% 19.16%
9 2019-02-16 35.6 Partick Thistle 2 1377 45.88% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1287 32.44% 21.68%
10 2018-10-27 35.8 @ Queen of the South 2 1458 55.38% Falkirk 0 1377 23.88% 20.74%
11 2018-12-01 35.8 Ross County 1 1524 64.91% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1273 16.33% 18.77%
12 2018-12-01 35.9 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1432 49.40% Greenock Morton 0 1398 29.17% 21.43%
13 2019-04-26 35.9 @ Ross County 4 1533 61.00% Queen of the South 0 1402 19.28% 19.72%
14 2019-03-09 36.1 @ Ross County 2 1524 61.72% Greenock Morton 0 1386 18.72% 19.56%
15 2018-11-03 36.5 Dunfermline Athletic 1 1440 57.04% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1262 22.48% 20.48%
16 2018-09-22 36.7 Ayr United 2 1337 41.01% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1282 37.15% 21.85%
17 2019-04-27 36.7 @ Dundee United 2 1472 55.09% Falkirk 0 1393 24.13% 20.78%
18 2019-03-09 37.3 Dunfermline Athletic 1 1460 56.66% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1286 22.80% 20.54%
19 2018-10-27 37.4 @ Ross County 5 1513 57.93% Greenock Morton 0 1409 21.74% 20.32%
20 2018-09-01 37.9 @ Ross County 2 1469 52.61% Falkirk 0 1411 26.29% 21.11%
21 2018-12-01 38.9 @ Queen of the South 1 1447 55.65% Partick Thistle 0 1364 23.65% 20.70%
22 2018-11-03 39.3 @ Greenock Morton 5 1400 47.16% Partick Thistle 1 1384 31.24% 21.60%
23 2019-03-30 39.3 Partick Thistle 3 1370 32.13% @ Greenock Morton 0 1380 46.21% 21.66%
24 2019-05-04 39.4 Partick Thistle 3 1397 34.30% @ Queen of the South 0 1390 43.93% 21.77%
25 2019-02-23 39.8 @ Inverness CT 1 1495 58.81% Greenock Morton 0 1384 21.03% 20.16%