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2019-20 Championship Season

137 games

Final

Promoted

Dundee United

59 pts

Relegated

Partick Thistle

26 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Alloa Athletic

6.00 points above expected

31 points · 25.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Partick Thistle

4.99 points below expected

26 points · 30.99 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee United Promoted 28 18 5 5 59 52 22 +30 53.55 +5.45
2 Inverness CT 27 14 3 10 45 39 32 +7 46.49 -1.49
3 Dundee 27 11 8 8 41 32 31 +1 37.67 +3.33
4 Ayr United 27 12 4 11 40 38 35 +3 37.97 +2.03
5 Dunfermline Athletic 28 10 7 11 37 41 36 +5 39.43 -2.43
6 Arbroath 26 10 6 10 36 24 26 -2 40.68 -4.68
7 Greenock Morton 28 10 6 12 36 45 52 -7 32.08 +3.92
8 Alloa Athletic 28 7 10 11 31 33 43 -10 25.00 +6.00
9 Queen of the South 28 7 7 14 28 28 40 -12 31.69 -3.69
10 Partick Thistle Relegated 27 6 8 13 26 32 47 -15 30.99 -4.99

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Alloa Athletic 31 25.00 +6.00
2 Dundee United 59 53.55 +5.45
3 Greenock Morton 36 32.08 +3.92
4 Dundee 41 37.67 +3.33
5 Ayr United 40 37.97 +2.03

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Partick Thistle 26 30.99 -4.99
2 Arbroath 36 40.68 -4.68
3 Queen of the South 28 31.69 -3.69
4 Dunfermline Athletic 37 39.43 -2.43
5 Inverness CT 45 46.49 -1.49

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dundee United 9 Oct 26 – Dec 21 1 in 645
2 Ayr United 5 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 172
3 Arbroath 3 Jan 25 – Feb 15 1 in 25
4 Alloa Athletic 2 Jan 21 – Jan 25 1 in 18
5 Dundee 3 Oct 25 – Nov 1 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Dec 14 – Jan 11 1 in 350
2 Ayr United 3 Oct 5 – Oct 25 1 in 36
3 Queen of the South 3 Jan 4 – Feb 1 1 in 29
4 Arbroath 3 Sep 21 – Oct 5 1 in 23
5 Dundee 3 Nov 8 – Nov 30 1 in 21

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Alloa Athletic 7 Dec 28 – Feb 22 1 in 222
2 Greenock Morton 8 Jan 4 – Feb 29 1 in 114
3 Dundee United 13 Oct 26 – Jan 25 1 in 34
4 Dundee 6 Feb 1 – Mar 10 1 in 12
5 Ayr United 5 Aug 24 – Sep 28 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 10 Jan 4 – Mar 10 1 in 56
2 Dundee United 3 Jan 25 – Feb 14 1 in 19
3 Partick Thistle 8 Jan 4 – Mar 10 1 in 18
4 Arbroath 5 Nov 16 – Dec 21 1 in 13
5 Dunfermline Athletic 5 Aug 2 – Sep 14 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundee United 1627 59 -17 6 9.4 -3.4
Inverness CT 1558 45 -4 9 7.8 +1.2
Dundee 1519 41 +28 11 7.6 +3.4
Ayr United 1506 40 -8 5 7.2 -2.2
Dunfermline Athletic 1521 37 +9 6 6.9 -0.9
Arbroath 1531 36 +24 11 7.2 +3.8
Greenock Morton 1488 36 +31 8 6.2 +1.8
Alloa Athletic 1428 31 +9 6 4.8 +1.2
Queen of the South 1427 28 -39 2 5.7 -3.7
Partick Thistle 1446 26 -8 4 5.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARB AU DUN DU DA GM IC PT QOTS
Alloa Athletic —
1-0-2
2.77
0-0-3
3.09
0-1-2
2.91
1-1-1
2.15
2-1-0
2.60
0-1-2
3.40
1-2-1
3.31
0-3-0
3.45
2-1-0
3.08
Arbroath
2-0-1
5.47
 —
0-1-1
2.93
0-1-1
3.07
1-0-2
3.12
1-1-1
4.81
1-1-2
6.73
2-0-1
3.73
2-1-0
5.00
1-1-1
5.09
Ayr United
3-0-0
5.13
1-1-0
2.53
 —
0-1-3
5.70
1-1-1
3.17
1-0-2
4.09
2-0-1
4.90
1-0-2
3.89
2-1-0
4.45
1-0-2
4.79
Dundee
2-1-0
5.33
1-1-0
2.39
3-1-0
5.23
 —
0-1-2
2.99
1-1-1
3.78
1-1-1
4.48
0-1-2
3.86
2-0-1
4.75
1-1-1
4.34
Dundee United
1-1-1
6.19
2-0-1
5.12
1-1-1
5.05
2-1-0
5.25
 —
2-0-1
4.90
2-1-0
6.03
3-0-0
4.47
3-1-0
7.32
2-0-1
5.41
Dunfermline Athletic
0-1-2
5.67
1-1-1
3.39
2-0-1
4.11
1-1-1
4.41
1-0-2
3.31
 —
1-1-1
4.64
0-0-3
3.68
2-1-0
4.38
2-2-0
6.10
Greenock Morton
2-1-0
4.80
2-1-1
4.23
1-0-2
3.30
1-1-1
3.72
0-1-2
2.28
1-1-1
3.57
 —
1-0-2
2.89
1-0-2
4.14
1-1-1
3.89
Inverness CT
1-2-1
7.73
1-0-2
4.47
2-0-1
4.31
2-1-0
4.33
0-0-3
3.74
3-0-0
4.51
2-0-1
5.34
 —
0-0-2
3.62
3-0-0
5.43
Partick Thistle
0-3-0
4.75
0-1-2
3.22
0-1-2
3.75
1-0-2
3.45
0-1-3
3.71
0-1-2
3.82
2-0-1
4.06
2-0-0
1.88
 —
1-1-1
4.31
Queen of the South
0-1-2
5.14
1-1-1
3.13
2-0-1
3.41
1-1-1
3.86
1-0-2
2.83
0-2-2
4.84
1-1-1
4.30
0-0-3
2.82
1-1-1
3.90
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.50 +8.0
Allowed 0.52 -7.3
Differential 0.95 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.84%8.39%8.76%2.19%1.09%0.73%27.01%
18.39%13.87%8.03%2.92%1.82%0.36%35.40%
28.76%8.03%2.92%2.92%0.36%0.36%23.36%
32.19%2.92%2.92%—0.36%—8.39%
41.09%1.82%0.36%0.36%0.73%—4.38%
5+0.73%0.36%0.36%———1.46%
Total27.01%35.40%23.36%8.39%4.38%1.46%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.20 1.20 1.77
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 137

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%3.57%10.71%3.57%——25.00%
17.14%17.86%14.29%—7.14%—46.43%
27.14%3.57%7.14%———17.86%
3—3.57%3.57%———7.14%
4————3.57%—3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%28.57%35.71%3.57%10.71%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.54 -0.36
SD 1.02 1.20 1.45
CV 0.87 0.78 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.69%7.69%15.38%3.85%——34.62%
119.23%15.38%11.54%———46.15%
23.85%7.69%————11.54%
33.85%3.85%————7.69%
4———————
5+———————
Total34.62%34.62%26.92%3.85%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.92 1.00 -0.08
SD 0.89 0.89 1.47
CV 0.97 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 26

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.41%7.41%11.11%—3.70%—29.63%
111.11%7.41%11.11%3.70%——33.33%
27.41%3.70%—3.70%——14.81%
33.70%—7.41%———11.11%
4—7.41%3.70%———11.11%
5+———————
Total29.63%25.93%33.33%7.41%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.30 +0.11
SD 1.34 1.10 1.78
CV 0.95 0.85 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%11.11%———29.63%
111.11%14.81%3.70%3.70%——33.33%
211.11%11.11%3.70%——3.70%29.63%
33.70%—————3.70%
4———3.70%——3.70%
5+———————
Total37.04%33.33%18.52%7.41%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.15 +0.04
SD 1.04 1.35 1.56
CV 0.88 1.18 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%7.14%7.14%—3.57%—25.00%
110.71%10.71%————21.43%
210.71%17.86%————28.57%
37.14%—————7.14%
43.57%7.14%————10.71%
5+3.57%—3.57%———7.14%
Total42.86%42.86%10.71%—3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.79 +1.07
SD 1.72 0.92 2.09
CV 0.92 1.17 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%10.71%10.71%———25.00%
13.57%17.86%7.14%3.57%——32.14%
214.29%—3.57%3.57%——21.43%
33.57%3.57%7.14%—3.57%—17.86%
4———————
5+—3.57%————3.57%
Total25.00%35.71%28.57%7.14%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.29 +0.18
SD 1.26 1.05 1.61
CV 0.86 0.82 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.14%———7.14%14.29%
17.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%——39.29%
23.57%10.71%3.57%7.14%3.57%—28.57%
3——7.14%———7.14%
43.57%3.57%——3.57%—10.71%
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%25.00%10.71%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.86 -0.25
SD 1.17 1.51 2.03
CV 0.73 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%3.70%7.41%——22.22%
17.41%3.70%7.41%7.41%3.70%—29.63%
225.93%7.41%3.70%———37.04%
3—3.70%3.70%———7.41%
4———————
5+3.70%—————3.70%
Total40.74%22.22%18.52%14.81%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.19 +0.26
SD 1.15 1.24 1.99
CV 0.80 1.05 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%11.11%3.70%3.70%——22.22%
1—25.93%7.41%3.70%7.41%3.70%48.15%
2—11.11%—7.41%——18.52%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total3.70%59.26%11.11%14.81%7.41%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.74 -0.56
SD 0.92 1.23 1.58
CV 0.78 0.71 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%14.29%3.57%3.57%—42.86%
17.14%10.71%3.57%3.57%——25.00%
23.57%7.14%7.14%7.14%——25.00%
3—3.57%————3.57%
43.57%—————3.57%
5+———————
Total21.43%35.71%25.00%14.29%3.57%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.43 -0.43
SD 1.09 1.10 1.67
CV 1.09 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 28

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee United 1627 59 64.52 -5.52 26.0% 41 49 59 66 70 77 81
Inverness CT 1558 45 58.83 -13.83 4.0% 41 47 54 58 64 72 76
Arbroath 1531 36 54.39 -18.39 2.0% 32 41 49 55 59 66 73
Dunfermline Athletic 1521 37 50.40 -13.40 4.0% 29 38 46 49 56 63 70
Dundee 1519 41 50.01 -9.01 13.0% 33 38 44 50 55 62 72
Ayr United 1506 40 50.31 -10.31 9.0% 23 36 45 51 55 63 69
Greenock Morton 1488 36 43.05 -7.05 16.0% 27 32 39 42 47 54 61
Partick Thistle 1446 26 43.33 -17.33 1.0% 26 32 39 44 48 53 58
Alloa Athletic 1428 31 35.97 -4.97 28.0% 22 26 31 37 40 44 49
Queen of the South 1427 28 42.66 -14.66 4.0% 23 30 36 41 49 57 64

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.95%
No Edge
43.80%23.36%32.85%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 38.19 Elo pts.
249 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.15+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
63%
Dundee United, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.52/gm
Runaway
00.220.8/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.26 * Some Luck: 5.26 to 7.89 * Lucky: 7.89 to 10.52 * Wild Swing: 10.52 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.45 * Close: 1.45 to 2.18 * Off: 2.18 to 2.91 * Way Off: 2.91 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1 * A Surprise: 1 to 1.6 * Several Surprises: 1.6 to 2.2 * Many Surprises: 2.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.41 points
As Expected
06.5716
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.40
Pinpoint
01.824
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
88.67%
Dundee United
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.68%
Partick Thistle
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected 1.0
1 of 1
A Surprise
01

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 62.06
1.37
Coin-Flip Parity
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Even
50%76%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.46
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
33%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.56
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.56
Overconfident
0.4257441.001.57426
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.091
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee United63.00%15.00%10.00%3.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%——
Inverness CT19.00%33.00%21.00%14.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%——
Dundee1.00%11.00%11.00%19.00%13.00%14.00%11.00%10.00%8.00%2.00%
Ayr United4.00%7.00%17.00%17.00%19.00%8.00%13.00%5.00%7.00%3.00%
Dunfermline Athletic7.00%7.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%16.00%12.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%
Arbroath6.00%18.00%28.00%8.00%15.00%9.00%9.00%3.00%3.00%1.00%
Greenock Morton—3.00%—6.00%8.00%19.00%11.00%19.00%20.00%14.00%
Alloa Athletic————2.00%4.00%4.00%23.00%25.00%42.00%
Queen of the South—6.00%—10.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%12.00%18.00%23.00%
Partick Thistle——1.00%7.00%12.00%15.00%23.00%18.00%13.00%11.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Same level
Dundee United 63.00% 37.00%
Inverness CT 19.00% 81.00%
Dunfermline Athletic 7.00% 93.00%
Arbroath 6.00% 94.00%
Ayr United 4.00% 96.00%
Dundee 1.00% 99.00%
Alloa Athletic — 100%
Greenock Morton — 100%
Partick Thistle — 100%
Queen of the South — 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2019-08-02 Dundee D 2-269.1 1503 1507 42.70% 26.97% 30.33%+0.14 -0.3 1
2019-08-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-269.1 1507 1503 30.33% 26.97% 42.70%-0.14 +0.3 1
2019-08-03 Greenock Morton W 4-254.1 1496 1481 45.32% 26.68% 27.99%+0.21 +8.2 3
2019-08-03 @ Ayr United L 2-454.1 1481 1496 27.99% 26.68% 45.32%-0.21 -8.2 0
2019-08-03 Inverness CT W 4-153.2 1540 1557 40.79% 27.12% 32.10%+0.08 +14.4 3
2019-08-03 @ Dundee United L 1-453.2 1557 1540 32.10% 27.12% 40.79%-0.08 -14.4 0
2019-08-03 Partick Thistle D 1-160.1 1426 1502 32.69% 27.15% 40.15%-0.15 +0.3 1
2019-08-03 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-160.1 1502 1426 40.15% 27.15% 32.69%+0.15 -0.3 1
2019-08-03 Queen of the South D 0-060.3 1569 1471 55.83% 24.43% 19.74%+0.55 -1.6 1
2019-08-03 @ Arbroath D 0-060.3 1471 1569 19.74% 24.43% 55.83%-0.55 +1.6 1
2019-08-09 Dundee United L 1-259.3 1501 1554 35.84% 27.25% 36.91%-0.06 -6.4 1
2019-08-09 @ Partick Thistle W 2-159.3 1554 1501 36.91% 27.25% 35.84%+0.06 +6.4 6
2019-08-10 Alloa Athletic W 4-143.5 1473 1427 49.41% 26.02% 24.56%+0.34 +11.6 3
2019-08-10 @ Greenock Morton L 1-443.5 1427 1473 24.56% 26.02% 49.41%-0.34 -11.6 1
2019-08-10 Arbroath W 2-160.3 1543 1568 39.81% 27.17% 33.02%+0.05 +6.0 3
2019-08-10 @ Inverness CT L 1-260.3 1568 1543 33.02% 27.17% 39.81%-0.05 -6.0 1
2019-08-10 Ayr United W 1-049.8 1507 1504 43.66% 26.88% 29.47%+0.17 +5.8 4
2019-08-10 @ Dundee L 0-149.8 1504 1507 29.47% 26.88% 43.66%-0.17 -5.8 3
2019-08-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-161.8 1472 1502 39.07% 27.20% 33.73%+0.03 -0.2 2
2019-08-10 @ Queen of the South D 1-161.8 1502 1472 33.73% 27.20% 39.07%-0.03 +0.2 2
2019-08-23 Partick Thistle W 3-260.1 1484 1495 41.80% 27.05% 31.15%+0.11 +5.5 6
2019-08-23 @ Greenock Morton L 2-360.1 1495 1484 31.15% 27.05% 41.80%-0.11 -5.5 1
2019-08-24 Arbroath L 0-146.7 1415 1562 24.28% 25.95% 49.77%-0.44 -5.0 1
2019-08-24 @ Alloa Athletic W 1-046.7 1562 1415 49.77% 25.95% 24.28%+0.44 +5.0 4
2019-08-24 Dundee United L 0-249.8 1503 1560 35.12% 27.24% 37.64%-0.08 -12.6 2
2019-08-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-049.8 1560 1503 37.64% 27.24% 35.12%+0.08 +12.6 9
2019-08-24 Inverness CT D 0-060.3 1513 1549 38.24% 27.23% 34.53%+0.01 -0.1 5
2019-08-24 @ Dundee D 0-060.3 1549 1513 34.53% 27.23% 38.24%-0.01 +0.1 4
2019-08-24 Queen of the South W 1-047.4 1498 1472 46.80% 26.48% 26.73%+0.26 +5.4 6
2019-08-24 @ Ayr United L 0-147.4 1472 1498 26.73% 26.48% 46.80%-0.26 -5.4 2
2019-08-30 Dundee W 6-249.7 1573 1513 51.17% 25.66% 23.18%+0.39 +12.1 12
2019-08-30 @ Dundee United L 2-649.7 1513 1573 23.18% 25.66% 51.17%-0.39 -12.1 5
2019-08-30 Greenock Morton W 5-043.5 1549 1490 51.06% 25.68% 23.26%+0.39 +21.2 7
2019-08-30 @ Inverness CT L 0-543.5 1490 1549 23.26% 25.68% 51.06%-0.39 -21.1 6
2019-08-31 Alloa Athletic L 0-151.1 1467 1410 50.78% 25.74% 23.48%+0.38 -8.9 2
2019-08-31 @ Queen of the South W 1-051.1 1410 1467 23.48% 25.74% 50.78%-0.38 +8.9 4
2019-08-31 Ayr United L 2-363.7 1489 1504 41.26% 27.08% 31.65%+0.10 -6.7 1
2019-08-31 @ Partick Thistle W 3-263.7 1504 1489 31.65% 27.08% 41.26%-0.10 +6.8 9
2019-08-31 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.6 1567 1490 53.21% 25.16% 21.62%+0.46 +4.5 7
2019-08-31 @ Arbroath L 0-148.6 1490 1567 21.62% 25.16% 53.21%-0.46 -4.5 2
2019-09-13 Partick Thistle D 1-165.5 1571 1483 54.64% 24.78% 20.58%+0.51 -1.3 8
2019-09-13 @ Arbroath D 1-165.5 1483 1571 20.58% 24.78% 54.64%-0.51 +1.3 2
2019-09-14 Alloa Athletic W 2-149.2 1501 1419 53.88% 24.99% 21.14%+0.48 +4.1 8
2019-09-14 @ Dundee L 1-249.2 1419 1501 21.14% 24.99% 53.88%-0.48 -4.1 4
2019-09-14 Dundee United W 2-052.4 1511 1585 32.82% 27.16% 40.02%-0.15 +13.9 12
2019-09-14 @ Ayr United L 0-252.4 1585 1511 40.02% 27.16% 32.82%+0.15 -13.9 12
2019-09-14 Greenock Morton W 1-047.3 1458 1469 41.78% 27.05% 31.17%+0.11 +6.1 5
2019-09-14 @ Queen of the South L 0-147.3 1469 1458 31.17% 27.05% 41.78%-0.11 -6.1 6
2019-09-14 Inverness CT L 0-152.1 1486 1570 31.47% 27.07% 41.45%-0.19 -6.2 2
2019-09-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-052.1 1570 1486 41.45% 27.07% 31.47%+0.19 +6.2 10
2019-09-21 Arbroath W 2-160.1 1571 1570 43.45% 26.90% 29.65%+0.16 +5.5 15
2019-09-21 @ Dundee United L 1-260.1 1570 1571 29.65% 26.90% 43.45%-0.16 -5.5 8
2019-09-21 Ayr United L 1-446.2 1415 1525 28.35% 26.74% 44.92%-0.29 -13.1 4
2019-09-21 @ Alloa Athletic W 4-146.2 1525 1415 44.92% 26.74% 28.35%+0.29 +13.1 15
2019-09-21 Dundee W 1-050.1 1463 1505 37.31% 27.24% 35.45%-0.02 +6.7 9
2019-09-21 @ Greenock Morton L 0-150.1 1505 1463 35.45% 27.24% 37.31%+0.02 -6.7 8
2019-09-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-346.6 1484 1479 43.90% 26.85% 29.25%+0.17 -21.7 2
2019-09-21 @ Partick Thistle W 3-046.6 1479 1484 29.25% 26.85% 43.90%-0.17 +21.7 5
2019-09-21 Queen of the South W 2-043.1 1576 1464 57.45% 23.92% 18.63%+0.60 +7.3 13
2019-09-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-243.1 1464 1576 18.63% 23.92% 57.45%-0.60 -7.3 5
2019-09-27 Dundee D 1-161.1 1457 1498 37.44% 27.24% 35.32%-0.01 -0.1 6
2019-09-27 @ Queen of the South D 1-161.1 1498 1457 35.32% 27.24% 37.44%+0.01 +0.1 9
2019-09-28 Alloa Athletic D 1-160.1 1501 1402 55.97% 24.39% 19.65%+0.55 -1.4 6
2019-09-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.1 1402 1501 19.65% 24.39% 55.97%-0.55 +1.4 5
2019-09-28 Ayr United L 0-352.4 1564 1538 46.85% 26.47% 26.68%+0.26 -22.8 8
2019-09-28 @ Arbroath W 3-052.4 1538 1564 26.68% 26.47% 46.85%-0.26 +22.8 18
2019-09-28 Greenock Morton W 6-042.9 1577 1469 56.89% 24.10% 19.01%+0.58 +20.8 18
2019-09-28 @ Dundee United L 0-642.9 1469 1577 19.01% 24.10% 56.89%-0.58 -20.8 9
2019-09-28 Partick Thistle L 1-361.1 1584 1462 58.49% 23.57% 17.95%+0.64 -16.3 13
2019-09-28 @ Inverness CT W 3-161.1 1462 1584 17.95% 23.57% 58.49%-0.64 +16.3 5
2019-10-04 Dundee United W 1-056.6 1403 1597 19.87% 24.48% 55.65%-0.63 +9.6 8
2019-10-04 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-156.6 1597 1403 55.65% 24.48% 19.87%+0.63 -9.6 18
2019-10-05 Arbroath W 2-049.1 1498 1541 37.20% 27.25% 35.55%-0.02 +12.7 12
2019-10-05 @ Dundee L 0-249.1 1541 1498 35.55% 27.25% 37.20%+0.02 -12.7 8
2019-10-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.8 1449 1500 36.05% 27.25% 36.70%-0.05 +0.0 10
2019-10-05 @ Greenock Morton D 1-160.8 1500 1449 36.70% 27.25% 36.05%+0.05 -0.0 7
2019-10-05 Inverness CT L 0-254.0 1560 1567 42.30% 27.01% 30.69%+0.13 -14.5 18
2019-10-05 @ Ayr United W 2-054.0 1567 1560 30.69% 27.01% 42.30%-0.13 +14.5 16
2019-10-05 Queen of the South L 0-152.0 1479 1457 46.24% 26.56% 27.20%+0.24 -8.2 5
2019-10-05 @ Partick Thistle W 1-052.0 1457 1479 27.20% 26.56% 46.24%-0.24 +8.2 9
2019-10-19 Alloa Athletic D 2-270.2 1582 1413 63.72% 21.54% 14.74%+0.83 -1.5 17
2019-10-19 @ Inverness CT D 2-270.2 1413 1582 14.74% 21.54% 63.72%-0.83 +1.5 9
2019-10-19 Ayr United W 3-264.1 1500 1546 36.74% 27.25% 36.02%-0.03 +6.1 10
2019-10-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-364.1 1546 1500 36.02% 27.25% 36.74%+0.03 -6.1 18
2019-10-19 Dundee United W 4-050.5 1465 1588 26.83% 26.50% 46.68%-0.34 +29.7 12
2019-10-19 @ Queen of the South L 0-450.5 1588 1465 46.68% 26.50% 26.83%+0.34 -29.7 18
2019-10-19 Greenock Morton W 1-045.6 1529 1449 53.65% 25.05% 21.31%+0.48 +4.4 11
2019-10-19 @ Arbroath L 0-145.6 1449 1529 21.31% 25.05% 53.65%-0.48 -4.4 10
2019-10-19 Partick Thistle L 1-356.5 1511 1470 48.68% 26.16% 25.16%+0.32 -14.0 12
2019-10-19 @ Dundee W 3-156.5 1470 1511 25.16% 26.16% 48.68%-0.32 +14.0 8
2019-10-25 Dundee L 1-262.2 1540 1497 48.98% 26.11% 24.92%+0.33 -8.1 18
2019-10-25 @ Ayr United W 2-162.2 1497 1540 24.92% 26.11% 48.98%-0.33 +8.1 15
2019-10-26 Arbroath L 1-354.5 1484 1533 36.41% 27.25% 36.34%-0.04 -11.2 8
2019-10-26 @ Partick Thistle W 3-154.5 1533 1484 36.34% 27.25% 36.41%+0.04 +11.2 14
2019-10-26 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-046.1 1558 1506 50.21% 25.86% 23.93%+0.36 +9.3 21
2019-10-26 @ Dundee United L 0-246.1 1506 1558 23.93% 25.86% 50.21%-0.36 -9.3 10
2019-10-26 Inverness CT W 2-161.6 1444 1580 25.37% 26.21% 48.42%-0.39 +8.1 13
2019-10-26 @ Greenock Morton L 1-261.6 1580 1444 48.42% 26.21% 25.37%+0.39 -8.1 17
2019-10-26 Queen of the South D 2-265.4 1414 1495 32.00% 27.11% 40.89%-0.17 +0.2 10
2019-10-26 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-265.4 1495 1414 40.89% 27.11% 32.00%+0.17 -0.2 13
2019-10-29 Arbroath W 2-049.4 1496 1544 36.51% 27.25% 36.24%-0.04 +12.9 13
2019-10-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-249.4 1544 1496 36.24% 27.25% 36.51%+0.04 -12.9 14
2019-10-29 Ayr United L 2-360.6 1452 1532 32.14% 27.12% 40.74%-0.17 -5.6 13
2019-10-29 @ Greenock Morton W 3-260.6 1532 1452 40.74% 27.12% 32.14%+0.17 +5.6 21
2019-10-29 Dundee L 0-341.1 1414 1505 30.68% 27.00% 42.32%-0.21 -16.5 10
2019-10-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-041.1 1505 1414 42.32% 27.00% 30.68%+0.21 +16.5 18
2019-10-29 Inverness CT L 0-249.1 1494 1572 32.35% 27.13% 40.51%-0.16 -11.9 13
2019-10-29 @ Queen of the South W 2-049.1 1572 1494 40.51% 27.13% 32.35%+0.16 +11.9 20
2019-10-29 Partick Thistle W 1-047.4 1567 1473 55.34% 24.57% 20.09%+0.53 +4.2 24
2019-10-29 @ Dundee United L 0-147.4 1473 1567 20.09% 24.57% 55.34%-0.53 -4.2 8
2019-11-01 Greenock Morton W 2-151.2 1522 1447 53.03% 25.21% 21.76%+0.46 +4.3 21
2019-11-01 @ Dundee L 1-251.2 1447 1522 21.76% 25.21% 53.03%-0.46 -4.3 13
2019-11-02 Alloa Athletic W 2-147.7 1531 1398 59.87% 23.07% 17.06%+0.69 +3.4 17
2019-11-02 @ Arbroath L 1-247.7 1398 1531 17.06% 23.07% 59.87%-0.69 -3.4 10
2019-11-02 Dundee United L 0-353.5 1584 1572 44.97% 26.73% 28.30%+0.20 -22.1 20
2019-11-02 @ Inverness CT W 3-053.5 1572 1584 28.30% 26.73% 44.97%-0.20 +22.1 27
2019-11-02 Partick Thistle W 4-146.5 1537 1469 52.19% 25.42% 22.39%+0.43 +10.7 24
2019-11-02 @ Ayr United L 1-446.5 1469 1537 22.39% 25.42% 52.19%-0.43 -10.7 8
2019-11-02 Queen of the South W 2-044.4 1509 1483 46.87% 26.46% 26.66%+0.26 +10.2 16
2019-11-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-244.4 1483 1509 26.66% 26.46% 46.87%-0.26 -10.2 13
2019-11-08 Dundee United L 0-251.3 1526 1594 33.71% 27.20% 39.09%-0.12 -12.2 21
2019-11-08 @ Dundee W 2-051.3 1594 1526 39.09% 27.20% 33.71%+0.12 +12.2 30
2019-11-09 Ayr United W 3-155.7 1472 1548 32.66% 27.15% 40.19%-0.15 +12.1 16
2019-11-09 @ Queen of the South L 1-355.7 1548 1472 40.19% 27.15% 32.66%+0.15 -12.1 24
2019-11-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-157.2 1394 1520 26.59% 26.45% 46.96%-0.35 +7.9 13
2019-11-09 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-257.2 1520 1394 46.96% 26.45% 26.59%+0.35 -7.9 16
2019-11-09 Greenock Morton W 2-151.1 1458 1442 45.44% 26.67% 27.89%+0.22 +5.3 11
2019-11-09 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.1 1442 1458 27.89% 26.67% 45.44%-0.22 -5.3 13
2019-11-09 Inverness CT W 3-048.4 1535 1562 39.44% 27.19% 33.37%+0.04 +17.6 20
2019-11-09 @ Arbroath L 0-348.4 1562 1535 33.37% 27.19% 39.44%-0.04 -17.6 20
2019-11-16 Arbroath W 1-053.8 1437 1552 27.70% 26.64% 45.66%-0.31 +8.2 16
2019-11-16 @ Greenock Morton L 0-153.8 1552 1437 45.66% 26.64% 27.70%+0.31 -8.2 20
2019-11-16 Queen of the South W 3-042.5 1606 1484 58.51% 23.56% 17.93%+0.64 +10.3 33
2019-11-16 @ Dundee United L 0-342.5 1484 1606 17.93% 23.56% 58.51%-0.64 -10.2 16
2019-11-23 Dundee W 1-050.4 1544 1514 47.40% 26.38% 26.22%+0.28 +5.3 23
2019-11-23 @ Inverness CT L 0-150.4 1514 1544 26.22% 26.38% 47.40%-0.28 -5.3 21
2019-11-26 Alloa Athletic D 1-158.6 1464 1402 51.33% 25.62% 23.05%+0.40 -1.1 12
2019-11-26 @ Partick Thistle D 1-158.6 1402 1464 23.05% 25.62% 51.33%-0.40 +1.1 14
2019-11-30 Inverness CT L 0-242.1 1403 1550 24.31% 25.96% 49.73%-0.43 -9.4 14
2019-11-30 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-042.1 1550 1403 49.73% 25.96% 24.31%+0.43 +9.4 26
2019-11-30 Partick Thistle W 5-144.5 1512 1463 49.78% 25.95% 24.27%+0.35 +14.8 19
2019-11-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-544.5 1463 1512 24.27% 25.95% 49.78%-0.35 -14.8 12
2019-11-30 Queen of the South L 1-259.9 1508 1474 47.85% 26.31% 25.85%+0.29 -8.0 21
2019-11-30 @ Dundee W 2-159.9 1474 1508 25.85% 26.31% 47.85%-0.29 +8.0 19
2019-12-03 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-156.2 1536 1526 44.55% 26.78% 28.67%+0.19 -8.0 24
2019-12-03 @ Ayr United W 1-056.2 1526 1536 28.67% 26.78% 44.55%-0.19 +8.0 22
2019-12-07 Alloa Athletic W 2-148.0 1616 1394 69.03% 19.09% 11.88%+1.05 +2.2 36
2019-12-07 @ Dundee United L 1-248.0 1394 1616 11.88% 19.09% 69.03%-1.05 -2.2 14
2019-12-07 Ayr United W 2-047.7 1559 1528 47.47% 26.37% 26.16%+0.28 +10.0 29
2019-12-07 @ Inverness CT L 0-247.7 1528 1559 26.16% 26.37% 47.47%-0.28 -10.0 24
2019-12-07 Dundee D 1-164.7 1544 1500 49.10% 26.08% 24.81%+0.33 -0.9 21
2019-12-07 @ Arbroath D 1-164.7 1500 1544 24.81% 26.08% 49.10%-0.33 +0.9 22
2019-12-07 Greenock Morton W 3-147.6 1534 1445 54.75% 24.74% 20.50%+0.51 +7.0 25
2019-12-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-347.6 1445 1534 20.50% 24.74% 54.75%-0.51 -7.0 16
2019-12-07 Partick Thistle L 1-258.0 1482 1448 47.89% 26.30% 25.81%+0.29 -8.0 19
2019-12-07 @ Queen of the South W 2-158.0 1448 1482 25.81% 26.30% 47.89%-0.29 +8.0 15
2019-12-10 Arbroath D 1-165.0 1518 1543 39.72% 27.17% 33.10%+0.05 -0.2 25
2019-12-10 @ Ayr United D 1-165.0 1543 1518 33.10% 27.17% 39.72%-0.05 +0.2 22
2019-12-10 Dundee United L 1-254.2 1438 1618 21.09% 24.97% 53.94%-0.57 -4.1 16
2019-12-10 @ Greenock Morton W 2-154.2 1618 1438 53.94% 24.97% 21.09%+0.57 +4.1 39
2019-12-14 Alloa Athletic W 2-147.3 1518 1392 59.01% 23.38% 17.60%+0.66 +3.5 28
2019-12-14 @ Ayr United L 1-247.3 1392 1518 17.60% 23.38% 59.01%-0.66 -3.5 14
2019-12-14 Dundee United L 0-155.8 1544 1623 32.20% 27.12% 40.68%-0.16 -6.3 22
2019-12-14 @ Arbroath W 1-055.8 1623 1544 40.68% 27.12% 32.20%+0.16 +6.3 42
2019-12-14 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-366.3 1501 1541 37.62% 27.24% 35.14%-0.01 +5.8 25
2019-12-14 @ Dundee L 3-466.3 1541 1501 35.14% 27.24% 37.62%+0.01 -5.8 25
2019-12-14 Inverness CT W 3-157.3 1456 1569 27.92% 26.67% 45.41%-0.30 +13.3 18
2019-12-14 @ Partick Thistle L 1-357.3 1569 1456 45.41% 26.67% 27.92%+0.30 -13.3 29
2019-12-21 Arbroath W 2-048.9 1474 1537 34.36% 27.22% 38.41%-0.10 +13.5 22
2019-12-21 @ Queen of the South L 0-248.9 1537 1474 38.41% 27.22% 34.36%+0.10 -13.5 22
2019-12-21 Ayr United W 4-044.6 1629 1521 56.93% 24.09% 18.98%+0.59 +14.2 45
2019-12-21 @ Dundee United L 0-444.6 1521 1629 18.98% 24.09% 56.93%-0.59 -14.2 28
2019-12-21 Dundee L 0-151.1 1469 1507 37.90% 27.23% 34.86%+0.00 -7.1 18
2019-12-21 @ Partick Thistle W 1-051.1 1507 1469 34.86% 27.23% 37.90%+0.00 +7.1 28
2019-12-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-048.3 1556 1536 46.01% 26.59% 27.40%+0.24 +10.4 32
2019-12-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-248.3 1536 1556 27.40% 26.59% 46.01%-0.24 -10.4 25
2019-12-21 Greenock Morton L 0-242.2 1388 1434 36.80% 27.25% 35.95%-0.03 -13.1 14
2019-12-21 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-042.2 1434 1388 35.95% 27.25% 36.80%+0.03 +13.1 19
2019-12-27 Dundee D 1-169.2 1643 1514 59.34% 23.27% 17.40%+0.67 -1.7 46
2019-12-27 @ Dundee United D 1-169.2 1514 1643 17.40% 23.27% 59.34%-0.67 +1.7 29
2019-12-28 Alloa Athletic L 1-356.4 1525 1375 61.67% 22.38% 15.95%+0.76 -17.0 25
2019-12-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-156.4 1375 1525 15.95% 22.38% 61.67%-0.76 +17.0 17
2019-12-28 Arbroath L 0-158.3 1566 1524 48.94% 26.11% 24.95%+0.32 -8.6 32
2019-12-28 @ Inverness CT W 1-058.3 1524 1566 24.95% 26.11% 48.94%-0.32 +8.6 25
2019-12-28 Partick Thistle L 1-255.5 1447 1462 41.22% 27.09% 31.69%+0.09 -7.1 19
2019-12-28 @ Greenock Morton W 2-155.5 1462 1447 31.69% 27.09% 41.22%-0.09 +7.1 21
2019-12-28 Queen of the South L 1-259.8 1507 1488 45.88% 26.61% 27.51%+0.23 -7.7 28
2019-12-28 @ Ayr United W 2-159.8 1488 1507 27.51% 26.61% 45.88%-0.23 +7.7 25
2020-01-04 Ayr United L 0-154.2 1508 1499 44.49% 26.79% 28.73%+0.19 -8.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-054.2 1499 1508 28.73% 26.79% 44.49%-0.19 +8.0 31
2020-01-04 Dundee United L 0-152.3 1495 1641 24.35% 25.97% 49.68%-0.43 -5.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Queen of the South W 1-052.3 1641 1495 49.68% 25.97% 24.35%+0.43 +5.0 49
2020-01-04 Greenock Morton L 1-261.2 1532 1440 55.12% 24.64% 20.24%+0.52 -9.0 25
2020-01-04 @ Arbroath W 2-161.2 1440 1532 20.24% 24.64% 55.12%-0.52 +9.0 22
2020-01-04 Inverness CT L 0-250.9 1516 1558 37.38% 27.24% 35.37%-0.01 -13.2 29
2020-01-04 @ Dundee W 2-050.9 1558 1516 35.37% 27.24% 37.38%+0.01 +13.2 35
2020-01-04 Partick Thistle D 1-158.0 1392 1469 32.50% 27.14% 40.36%-0.16 +0.3 18
2020-01-04 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-158.0 1469 1392 40.36% 27.14% 32.50%+0.16 -0.3 22
2020-01-11 Dundee United L 1-449.9 1469 1646 21.32% 25.05% 53.63%-0.56 -10.2 22
2020-01-11 @ Partick Thistle W 4-149.9 1646 1469 53.63% 25.05% 21.32%+0.56 +10.2 52
2020-01-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-260.8 1449 1500 36.04% 27.25% 36.71%-0.05 +6.2 25
2020-01-11 @ Greenock Morton L 2-360.8 1500 1449 36.71% 27.25% 36.04%+0.05 -6.2 25
2020-01-21 Arbroath W 2-048.0 1392 1523 25.94% 26.33% 47.73%-0.37 +16.0 21
2020-01-21 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-248.0 1523 1392 47.73% 26.33% 25.94%+0.37 -16.0 25
2020-01-24 Dundee W 2-046.0 1494 1503 42.07% 27.03% 30.91%+0.12 +11.5 28
2020-01-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-246.0 1503 1494 30.91% 27.03% 42.07%-0.12 -11.5 29
2020-01-25 Alloa Athletic L 2-363.5 1490 1408 53.87% 24.99% 21.14%+0.48 -8.4 25
2020-01-25 @ Queen of the South W 3-263.5 1408 1490 21.14% 24.99% 53.87%-0.48 +8.3 24
2020-01-25 Greenock Morton D 1-168.9 1657 1455 67.00% 20.07% 12.93%+0.96 -2.2 53
2020-01-25 @ Dundee United D 1-168.9 1455 1657 12.93% 20.07% 67.00%-0.96 +2.2 26
2020-01-25 Inverness CT W 1-055.1 1507 1571 34.28% 27.22% 38.50%-0.10 +7.2 34
2020-01-25 @ Ayr United L 0-155.1 1571 1507 38.50% 27.22% 34.28%+0.10 -7.2 35
2020-01-25 Partick Thistle W 2-152.1 1508 1458 49.77% 25.95% 24.28%+0.35 +4.7 28
2020-01-25 @ Arbroath L 1-252.1 1458 1508 24.28% 25.95% 49.77%-0.35 -4.7 22
2020-01-31 Ayr United D 1-161.6 1454 1514 34.71% 27.23% 38.06%-0.09 +0.1 23
2020-01-31 @ Partick Thistle D 1-161.6 1514 1454 38.06% 27.23% 34.71%+0.09 -0.1 35
2020-02-01 Alloa Athletic D 1-163.4 1564 1417 61.34% 22.52% 16.15%+0.74 -1.8 36
2020-02-01 @ Inverness CT D 1-163.4 1417 1564 16.15% 22.52% 61.34%-0.74 +1.8 25
2020-02-01 Arbroath L 0-163.1 1654 1512 60.82% 22.72% 16.46%+0.72 -10.3 53
2020-02-01 @ Dundee United W 1-063.1 1512 1654 16.46% 22.72% 60.82%-0.72 +10.3 31
2020-02-01 Dundee D 1-160.8 1457 1491 38.52% 27.22% 34.26%+0.02 -0.2 27
2020-02-01 @ Greenock Morton D 1-160.8 1491 1457 34.26% 27.22% 38.52%-0.02 +0.2 30
2020-02-01 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-363.1 1482 1506 40.00% 27.16% 32.84%+0.06 -6.6 25
2020-02-01 @ Queen of the South W 3-263.1 1506 1482 32.84% 27.16% 40.00%-0.06 +6.6 31
2020-02-08 Partick Thistle W 2-042.3 1491 1454 48.28% 26.23% 25.49%+0.30 +9.8 33
2020-02-08 @ Dundee L 0-242.3 1454 1491 25.49% 26.23% 48.28%-0.30 -9.8 23
2020-02-08 Queen of the South D 2-266.3 1457 1475 40.73% 27.12% 32.15%+0.08 -0.2 28
2020-02-08 @ Greenock Morton D 2-266.3 1475 1457 32.15% 27.12% 40.73%-0.08 +0.2 26
2020-02-14 Dundee United D 0-061.5 1419 1644 17.47% 23.31% 59.23%-0.75 +1.9 26
2020-02-14 @ Alloa Athletic D 0-061.5 1644 1419 59.23% 23.31% 17.47%+0.75 -1.9 54
2020-02-15 Queen of the South W 2-043.9 1523 1476 49.49% 26.01% 24.51%+0.34 +9.5 34
2020-02-15 @ Arbroath L 0-243.9 1476 1523 24.51% 26.01% 49.49%-0.34 -9.5 26
2020-02-21 Inverness CT W 2-158.6 1642 1562 53.67% 25.04% 21.29%+0.48 +4.2 57
2020-02-21 @ Dundee United L 1-258.6 1562 1642 21.29% 25.04% 53.67%-0.48 -4.2 36
2020-02-22 Alloa Athletic D 4-470.1 1457 1420 48.16% 26.25% 25.59%+0.30 -0.5 29
2020-02-22 @ Greenock Morton D 4-470.1 1420 1457 25.59% 26.25% 48.16%-0.30 +0.5 27
2020-02-22 Dundee L 0-151.0 1466 1501 38.36% 27.22% 34.41%+0.01 -7.1 26
2020-02-22 @ Queen of the South W 1-051.0 1501 1466 34.41% 27.22% 38.36%-0.01 +7.1 36
2020-02-25 Greenock Morton L 1-260.2 1514 1457 50.87% 25.72% 23.41%+0.39 -8.4 35
2020-02-25 @ Ayr United W 2-160.2 1457 1514 23.41% 25.72% 50.87%-0.39 +8.4 32
2020-02-25 Inverness CT L 1-260.1 1512 1558 36.83% 27.25% 35.92%-0.03 -6.5 31
2020-02-25 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-160.1 1558 1512 35.92% 27.25% 36.83%+0.03 +6.5 39
2020-02-29 Ayr United L 0-243.7 1421 1506 31.43% 27.07% 41.50%-0.19 -11.6 27
2020-02-29 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-043.7 1506 1421 41.50% 27.07% 31.43%+0.19 +11.6 38
2020-02-29 Dundee United W 2-056.5 1506 1646 24.88% 26.10% 49.02%-0.41 +16.3 34
2020-02-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-256.5 1646 1506 49.02% 26.10% 24.88%+0.41 -16.3 57
2020-02-29 Greenock Morton L 0-444.7 1459 1465 42.45% 26.99% 30.55%+0.13 -27.6 26
2020-02-29 @ Queen of the South W 4-044.7 1465 1459 30.55% 26.99% 42.45%-0.13 +27.6 35
2020-03-03 Alloa Athletic D 0-055.8 1508 1409 55.91% 24.40% 19.69%+0.55 -1.6 37
2020-03-03 @ Dundee D 0-055.8 1409 1508 19.69% 24.40% 55.91%-0.55 +1.6 28
2020-03-03 Dundee United D 0-063.2 1517 1630 28.01% 26.69% 45.30%-0.30 +0.7 39
2020-03-03 @ Ayr United D 0-063.2 1630 1517 45.30% 26.69% 28.01%+0.30 -0.7 58
2020-03-03 Greenock Morton W 3-259.8 1564 1493 52.63% 25.31% 22.06%+0.44 +4.1 42
2020-03-03 @ Inverness CT L 2-359.8 1493 1564 22.06% 25.31% 52.63%-0.44 -4.1 35
2020-03-03 Queen of the South D 0-053.8 1444 1432 44.98% 26.73% 28.29%+0.20 -0.7 24
2020-03-03 @ Partick Thistle D 0-053.8 1432 1444 28.29% 26.73% 44.98%-0.20 +0.7 27
2020-03-04 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-060.1 1532 1522 44.64% 26.77% 28.59%+0.19 -0.7 35
2020-03-04 @ Arbroath D 0-060.1 1522 1532 28.59% 26.77% 44.64%-0.19 +0.7 35
2020-03-07 Arbroath D 1-163.5 1488 1531 37.23% 27.25% 35.52%-0.02 -0.1 36
2020-03-07 @ Greenock Morton D 1-163.5 1531 1488 35.52% 27.25% 37.23%+0.02 +0.1 36
2020-03-07 Dundee D 0-059.1 1518 1507 44.82% 26.75% 28.43%+0.20 -0.7 40
2020-03-07 @ Ayr United D 0-059.1 1507 1518 28.43% 26.75% 44.82%-0.20 +0.7 38
2020-03-07 Inverness CT W 2-051.1 1411 1568 23.20% 25.66% 51.14%-0.48 +16.9 31
2020-03-07 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-251.1 1568 1411 51.14% 25.66% 23.20%+0.48 -16.9 42
2020-03-07 Partick Thistle D 1-167.3 1629 1443 65.45% 20.78% 13.77%+0.90 -2.1 59
2020-03-07 @ Dundee United D 1-167.3 1443 1629 13.77% 20.78% 65.45%-0.90 +2.1 25
2020-03-07 Queen of the South D 1-161.8 1523 1432 54.88% 24.71% 20.41%+0.52 -1.3 36
2020-03-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-161.8 1432 1523 20.41% 24.71% 54.88%-0.52 +1.3 28
2020-03-10 Ayr United W 2-047.2 1507 1518 41.86% 27.04% 31.09%+0.11 +11.5 41
2020-03-10 @ Dundee L 0-247.2 1518 1507 31.09% 27.04% 41.86%-0.11 -11.5 40
2020-03-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-161.5 1446 1521 32.66% 27.15% 40.19%-0.15 +0.3 26
2020-03-10 @ Partick Thistle D 1-161.5 1521 1446 40.19% 27.15% 32.66%+0.15 -0.3 37
2020-03-10 Queen of the South W 3-146.8 1552 1434 58.11% 23.70% 18.19%+0.63 +6.2 45
2020-03-10 @ Inverness CT L 1-346.8 1434 1552 18.19% 23.70% 58.11%-0.63 -6.2 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2019-12-28 15.95% Alloa Athletic 1375 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1525 1
2 2020-02-01 16.46% Arbroath 1512 1 @ Dundee United 1654 0
3 2019-09-28 17.95% Partick Thistle 1462 3 @ Inverness CT 1584 1
4 2019-10-04 19.87% @ Alloa Athletic 1403 1 Dundee United 1597 0
5 2020-01-04 20.24% Greenock Morton 1440 2 @ Arbroath 1532 1
6 2020-01-25 21.14% Alloa Athletic 1408 3 @ Queen of the South 1490 2
7 2020-03-07 23.20% @ Alloa Athletic 1411 2 Inverness CT 1568 0
8 2020-02-25 23.41% Greenock Morton 1457 2 @ Ayr United 1514 1
9 2019-08-31 23.48% Alloa Athletic 1410 1 @ Queen of the South 1467 0
10 2020-02-29 24.88% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1506 2 Dundee United 1646 0
11 2019-10-25 24.92% Dundee 1497 2 @ Ayr United 1540 1
12 2019-12-28 24.95% Arbroath 1524 1 @ Inverness CT 1566 0
13 2019-10-19 25.16% Partick Thistle 1470 3 @ Dundee 1511 1
14 2019-10-26 25.37% @ Greenock Morton 1444 2 Inverness CT 1580 1
15 2019-12-07 25.81% Partick Thistle 1448 2 @ Queen of the South 1482 1
16 2019-11-30 25.85% Queen of the South 1474 2 @ Dundee 1508 1
17 2020-01-21 25.94% @ Alloa Athletic 1392 2 Arbroath 1523 0
18 2019-11-09 26.59% @ Alloa Athletic 1394 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1520 1
19 2019-09-28 26.68% Ayr United 1538 3 @ Arbroath 1564 0
20 2019-10-19 26.83% @ Queen of the South 1465 4 Dundee United 1588 0
21 2019-10-05 27.20% Queen of the South 1457 1 @ Partick Thistle 1479 0
22 2019-12-28 27.51% Queen of the South 1488 2 @ Ayr United 1507 1
23 2019-11-16 27.70% @ Greenock Morton 1437 1 Arbroath 1552 0
24 2019-12-14 27.92% @ Partick Thistle 1456 3 Inverness CT 1569 1
25 2019-11-02 28.30% Dundee United 1572 3 @ Inverness CT 1584 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-19 29.72 @ Queen of the South 4 1465 26.83% Dundee United 0 1588 46.68% 26.50%
2 2020-02-29 27.59 Greenock Morton 4 1465 30.55% @ Queen of the South 0 1459 42.45% 26.99%
3 2019-09-28 22.82 Ayr United 3 1538 26.68% @ Arbroath 0 1564 46.85% 26.47%
4 2019-11-02 22.09 Dundee United 3 1572 28.30% @ Inverness CT 0 1584 44.97% 26.73%
5 2019-09-21 21.68 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1479 29.25% @ Partick Thistle 0 1484 43.90% 26.85%
6 2019-08-30 21.15 @ Inverness CT 5 1549 51.06% Greenock Morton 0 1490 23.26% 25.68%
7 2019-09-28 20.80 @ Dundee United 6 1577 56.89% Greenock Morton 0 1469 19.01% 24.10%
8 2019-11-09 17.64 @ Arbroath 3 1535 39.44% Inverness CT 0 1562 33.37% 27.19%
9 2019-12-28 17.01 Alloa Athletic 3 1375 15.95% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1525 61.67% 22.38%
10 2020-03-07 16.87 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1411 23.20% Inverness CT 0 1568 51.14% 25.66%
11 2019-10-29 16.54 Dundee 3 1505 42.32% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1414 30.68% 27.00%
12 2019-09-28 16.30 Partick Thistle 3 1462 17.95% @ Inverness CT 1 1584 58.49% 23.57%
13 2020-02-29 16.30 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1506 24.88% Dundee United 0 1646 49.02% 26.10%
14 2020-01-21 15.95 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1392 25.94% Arbroath 0 1523 47.73% 26.33%
15 2019-11-30 14.85 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1512 49.78% Partick Thistle 1 1463 24.27% 25.95%
16 2019-10-05 14.50 Inverness CT 2 1567 30.69% @ Ayr United 0 1560 42.30% 27.01%
17 2019-08-03 14.44 @ Dundee United 4 1540 40.79% Inverness CT 1 1557 32.10% 27.12%
18 2019-12-21 14.19 @ Dundee United 4 1629 56.93% Ayr United 0 1521 18.98% 24.09%
19 2019-10-19 14.03 Partick Thistle 3 1470 25.16% @ Dundee 1 1511 48.68% 26.16%
20 2019-09-14 13.90 @ Ayr United 2 1511 32.82% Dundee United 0 1585 40.02% 27.16%
21 2019-12-21 13.48 @ Queen of the South 2 1474 34.36% Arbroath 0 1537 38.41% 27.22%
22 2019-12-14 13.27 @ Partick Thistle 3 1456 27.92% Inverness CT 1 1569 45.41% 26.67%
23 2020-01-04 13.21 Inverness CT 2 1558 35.37% @ Dundee 0 1516 37.38% 27.24%
24 2019-09-21 13.10 Ayr United 4 1525 44.92% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1415 28.35% 26.74%
25 2019-12-21 13.06 Greenock Morton 2 1434 35.95% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1388 36.80% 27.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-19 70.2 @ Inverness CT 2 1582 63.72% Alloa Athletic 2 1413 14.74% 21.54%
2 2020-02-22 70.1 @ Greenock Morton 4 1457 48.16% Alloa Athletic 4 1420 25.59% 26.25%
3 2019-12-27 69.2 @ Dundee United 1 1643 59.34% Dundee 1 1514 17.40% 23.27%
4 2019-08-02 69.1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1503 42.70% Dundee 2 1507 30.33% 26.97%
5 2020-01-25 68.9 @ Dundee United 1 1657 67.00% Greenock Morton 1 1455 12.93% 20.07%
6 2020-03-07 67.3 @ Dundee United 1 1629 65.45% Partick Thistle 1 1443 13.77% 20.78%
7 2019-12-14 66.3 @ Dundee 4 1501 37.62% Dunfermline Athletic 3 1541 35.14% 27.24%
8 2020-02-08 66.3 @ Greenock Morton 2 1457 40.73% Queen of the South 2 1475 32.15% 27.12%
9 2019-09-13 65.5 @ Arbroath 1 1571 54.64% Partick Thistle 1 1483 20.58% 24.78%
10 2019-10-26 65.4 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1414 32.00% Queen of the South 2 1495 40.89% 27.11%
11 2019-12-10 65.0 @ Ayr United 1 1518 39.72% Arbroath 1 1543 33.10% 27.17%
12 2019-12-07 64.7 @ Arbroath 1 1544 49.10% Dundee 1 1500 24.81% 26.08%
13 2019-10-19 64.1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1500 36.74% Ayr United 2 1546 36.02% 27.25%
14 2019-08-31 63.7 Ayr United 3 1504 31.65% @ Partick Thistle 2 1489 41.26% 27.08%
15 2020-01-25 63.5 Alloa Athletic 3 1408 21.14% @ Queen of the South 2 1490 53.87% 24.99%
16 2020-03-07 63.5 @ Greenock Morton 1 1488 37.23% Arbroath 1 1531 35.52% 27.25%
17 2020-02-01 63.4 @ Inverness CT 1 1564 61.34% Alloa Athletic 1 1417 16.15% 22.52%
18 2020-03-03 63.2 @ Ayr United 0 1517 28.01% Dundee United 0 1630 45.30% 26.69%
19 2020-02-01 63.1 Arbroath 1 1512 16.46% @ Dundee United 0 1654 60.82% 22.72%
20 2020-02-01 63.1 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1506 32.84% @ Queen of the South 2 1482 40.00% 27.16%
21 2019-10-25 62.2 Dundee 2 1497 24.92% @ Ayr United 1 1540 48.98% 26.11%
22 2019-08-10 61.8 @ Queen of the South 1 1472 39.07% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1502 33.73% 27.20%
23 2020-03-07 61.8 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1523 54.88% Queen of the South 1 1432 20.41% 24.71%
24 2019-10-26 61.6 @ Greenock Morton 2 1444 25.37% Inverness CT 1 1580 48.42% 26.21%
25 2020-01-31 61.6 @ Partick Thistle 1 1454 34.71% Ayr United 1 1514 38.06% 27.23%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-10-29 41.1 Dundee 3 1505 42.32% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1414 30.68% 27.00%
2 2019-11-30 42.1 Inverness CT 2 1550 49.73% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1403 24.31% 25.96%
3 2019-12-21 42.2 Greenock Morton 2 1434 35.95% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1388 36.80% 27.25%
4 2020-02-08 42.3 @ Dundee 2 1491 48.28% Partick Thistle 0 1454 25.49% 26.23%
5 2019-11-16 42.5 @ Dundee United 3 1606 58.51% Queen of the South 0 1484 17.93% 23.56%
6 2019-09-28 42.9 @ Dundee United 6 1577 56.89% Greenock Morton 0 1469 19.01% 24.10%
7 2019-09-21 43.1 @ Inverness CT 2 1576 57.45% Queen of the South 0 1464 18.63% 23.92%
8 2019-08-10 43.5 @ Greenock Morton 4 1473 49.41% Alloa Athletic 1 1427 24.56% 26.02%
9 2019-08-30 43.5 @ Inverness CT 5 1549 51.06% Greenock Morton 0 1490 23.26% 25.68%
10 2020-02-29 43.7 Ayr United 2 1506 41.50% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1421 31.43% 27.07%
11 2020-02-15 43.9 @ Arbroath 2 1523 49.49% Queen of the South 0 1476 24.51% 26.01%
12 2019-11-02 44.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1509 46.87% Queen of the South 0 1483 26.66% 26.46%
13 2019-11-30 44.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 5 1512 49.78% Partick Thistle 1 1463 24.27% 25.95%
14 2019-12-21 44.6 @ Dundee United 4 1629 56.93% Ayr United 0 1521 18.98% 24.09%
15 2020-02-29 44.7 Greenock Morton 4 1465 30.55% @ Queen of the South 0 1459 42.45% 26.99%
16 2019-10-19 45.6 @ Arbroath 1 1529 53.65% Greenock Morton 0 1449 21.31% 25.05%
17 2020-01-24 46.0 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1494 42.07% Dundee 0 1503 30.91% 27.03%
18 2019-10-26 46.1 @ Dundee United 2 1558 50.21% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1506 23.93% 25.86%
19 2019-09-21 46.2 Ayr United 4 1525 44.92% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1415 28.35% 26.74%
20 2019-11-02 46.5 @ Ayr United 4 1537 52.19% Partick Thistle 1 1469 22.39% 25.42%
21 2019-09-21 46.6 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1479 29.25% @ Partick Thistle 0 1484 43.90% 26.85%
22 2019-08-24 46.7 Arbroath 1 1562 49.77% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1415 24.28% 25.95%
23 2020-03-10 46.8 @ Inverness CT 3 1552 58.11% Queen of the South 1 1434 18.19% 23.70%
24 2020-03-10 47.2 @ Dundee 2 1507 41.86% Ayr United 0 1518 31.09% 27.04%
25 2019-09-14 47.3 @ Queen of the South 1 1458 41.78% Greenock Morton 0 1469 31.17% 27.05%