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2020-21 Championship Season

135 games

Final

Promoted

Heart of Midlothian

57 pts

Dundee · via playoff

Relegated

Alloa Athletic

22 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Raith Rovers

13.74 points above expected

43 points · 29.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ayr United

8.55 points below expected

29 points · 37.55 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Heart of Midlothian Promoted 27 17 6 4 57 63 24 +39 53.28 +3.72
2 Dundee Promoted 27 12 9 6 45 49 40 +9 40.01 +4.99
3 Raith Rovers 27 12 7 8 43 45 36 +9 29.26 +13.74
4 Dunfermline Athletic 27 10 9 8 39 38 34 +4 42.23 -3.23
5 Inverness CT 27 8 12 7 36 36 31 +5 43.75 -7.75
6 Queen of the South 27 9 5 13 32 38 51 -13 29.89 +2.11
7 Arbroath 27 7 9 11 30 28 34 -6 35.36 -5.36
8 Ayr United 27 6 11 10 29 31 37 -6 37.55 -8.55
9 Greenock Morton 27 6 11 10 29 22 33 -11 32.80 -3.80
10 Alloa Athletic Relegated 27 5 7 15 22 30 60 -30 26.03 -4.03

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Raith Rovers 43 29.26 +13.74
2 Dundee 45 40.01 +4.99
3 Heart of Midlothian 57 53.28 +3.72
4 Queen of the South 32 29.89 +2.11
5 Dunfermline Athletic 39 42.23 -3.23

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ayr United 29 37.55 -8.55
2 Inverness CT 36 43.75 -7.75
3 Arbroath 30 35.36 -5.36
4 Alloa Athletic 22 26.03 -4.03
5 Greenock Morton 29 32.80 -3.80

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen of the South 4 Feb 17 – Mar 6 1 in 274
2 Inverness CT 4 Mar 16 – Apr 6 1 in 25
3 Raith Rovers 2 Oct 17 – Oct 24 1 in 20
4 Alloa Athletic 2 Dec 12 – Dec 19 1 in 19
5 Dundee 3 Dec 26 – Jan 2 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Mar 20 – Mar 30 1 in 28
2 Arbroath 3 Oct 17 – Oct 31 1 in 25
3 Dundee 2 Jan 30 – Feb 20 1 in 17
4 Queen of the South 4 Dec 4 – Dec 26 1 in 14
5 Ayr United 3 Feb 5 – Feb 27 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arbroath 8 Jan 16 – Feb 27 1 in 51
2 Queen of the South 5 Feb 12 – Mar 6 1 in 46
3 Raith Rovers 6 Mar 20 – Apr 17 1 in 17
4 Dundee 8 Mar 19 – Apr 30 1 in 17
5 Greenock Morton 5 Dec 12 – Jan 15 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 10 Dec 29 – Mar 6 1 in 62
2 Inverness CT 6 Dec 12 – Feb 17 1 in 53
3 Arbroath 7 Oct 17 – Dec 12 1 in 40
4 Ayr United 7 Mar 20 – Apr 30 1 in 35
5 Heart of Midlothian 3 Feb 12 – Feb 26 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Heart of Midlothian 1732 57 +37 11 10.1 +0.9
Dundee 1612 45 +14 9 8.2 +0.8
Raith Rovers 1513 43 -8 7 6.5 +0.5
Dunfermline Athletic 1552 39 +6 8 7.6 +0.4
Inverness CT 1592 36 -4 6 7.7 -1.7
Queen of the South 1476 32 -26 2 5.6 -3.6
Arbroath 1540 30 +25 8 7.4 +0.6
Greenock Morton 1480 29 -9 4 5.4 -1.4
Ayr United 1507 29 -46 3 6.5 -3.5
Alloa Athletic 1408 22 -11 4 4.2 -0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AA ARB AU DUN DA GM HOM IC QOTS RR
Alloa Athletic —
1-1-1
3.04
0-1-2
2.77
0-1-2
2.96
1-0-2
2.68
0-2-1
3.26
0-0-3
1.86
1-2-0
2.41
2-0-1
3.60
0-0-3
3.40
Arbroath
1-1-1
5.19
 —
3-0-0
3.76
0-1-2
3.58
1-0-2
3.38
1-2-0
4.44
0-1-2
2.45
0-1-2
3.31
0-2-1
4.74
1-1-1
4.90
Ayr United
2-1-0
5.48
0-0-3
4.44
 —
2-0-1
3.90
0-3-0
3.72
1-1-1
4.49
0-0-3
2.62
0-2-1
3.56
1-1-1
4.87
0-3-0
5.05
Dundee
2-1-0
5.28
2-1-0
4.63
1-0-2
4.31
 —
1-2-0
4.14
1-2-0
4.84
1-0-2
2.81
1-2-0
3.61
2-0-1
5.29
1-1-1
5.24
Dunfermline Athletic
2-0-1
5.59
2-0-1
4.84
0-3-0
4.49
0-2-1
4.07
 —
1-1-1
5.20
1-1-1
2.95
1-1-1
4.05
2-0-1
5.21
1-1-1
5.27
Greenock Morton
1-2-0
4.96
0-2-1
3.77
1-1-1
3.72
0-2-1
3.38
1-1-1
3.04
 —
0-2-1
2.16
1-1-1
3.00
2-0-1
4.54
0-0-3
4.63
Heart of Midlothian
3-0-0
6.52
2-1-0
5.84
3-0-0
5.65
2-0-1
5.45
1-1-1
5.29
1-2-0
6.17
 —
2-1-0
5.20
1-1-1
6.40
2-0-1
6.18
Inverness CT
0-2-1
5.87
2-1-0
4.92
1-2-0
4.66
0-2-1
4.60
1-1-1
4.16
1-1-1
5.24
0-1-2
3.04
 —
1-1-1
5.41
2-1-0
5.20
Queen of the South
1-0-2
4.62
1-2-0
3.47
1-1-1
3.35
1-0-2
2.95
1-0-2
3.03
1-0-2
3.68
1-1-1
1.96
1-1-1
2.84
 —
1-0-2
4.10
Raith Rovers
3-0-0
4.82
1-1-1
3.34
0-3-0
3.18
1-1-1
2.99
1-1-1
2.97
3-0-0
3.58
1-0-2
2.15
0-1-2
3.04
2-0-1
4.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.86 +7.9
Allowed 0.40 -6.2
Differential 0.93 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.63%8.15%4.81%2.22%1.11%0.74%26.67%
18.15%14.07%5.56%4.07%1.48%0.74%34.07%
24.81%5.56%6.67%2.96%0.37%1.11%21.48%
32.22%4.07%2.96%1.48%0.37%0.37%11.48%
41.11%1.48%0.37%0.37%——3.33%
5+0.74%0.74%1.11%0.37%——2.96%
Total26.67%34.07%21.48%11.48%3.33%2.96%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.41 +0.00
SD 1.29 1.29 1.78
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 135

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%7.41%7.41%—3.70%22.22%
17.41%14.81%11.11%11.11%7.41%—51.85%
2—7.41%7.41%——3.70%18.52%
3——3.70%3.70%——7.41%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.41%25.93%29.63%22.22%7.41%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.22 -1.11
SD 0.85 1.42 1.72
CV 0.76 0.64 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%18.52%3.70%3.70%——37.04%
111.11%14.81%—7.41%——33.33%
23.70%7.41%7.41%—3.70%—22.22%
3————3.70%—3.70%
43.70%—————3.70%
5+———————
Total29.63%40.74%11.11%11.11%7.41%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.04 1.26 -0.22
SD 1.06 1.23 1.45
CV 1.02 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%7.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%—40.74%
1—14.81%3.70%———18.52%
211.11%3.70%7.41%7.41%——29.63%
3—3.70%———3.70%7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total29.63%33.33%18.52%11.11%3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 1.37 -0.22
SD 1.17 1.33 1.60
CV 1.02 0.97 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%—3.70%———7.41%
17.41%14.81%3.70%7.41%——33.33%
27.41%7.41%7.41%3.70%—3.70%29.63%
37.41%11.11%3.70%7.41%——29.63%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%33.33%18.52%18.52%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.48 +0.33
SD 0.96 1.40 1.64
CV 0.53 0.94 —
Max 3 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.52%14.81%3.70%———37.04%
17.41%7.41%3.70%——3.70%22.22%
2—7.41%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
3—7.41%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
4—7.41%—3.70%——11.11%
5+———————
Total25.93%44.44%14.81%11.11%—3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.26 +0.15
SD 1.42 1.20 1.49
CV 1.01 0.95 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.81%18.52%7.41%——3.70%44.44%
17.41%18.52%3.70%—3.70%—33.33%
23.70%7.41%7.41%———18.52%
3——3.70%———3.70%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.93%44.44%22.22%—3.70%3.70%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.22 -0.41
SD 0.88 1.19 1.42
CV 1.08 0.97 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
111.11%11.11%3.70%3.70%——29.63%
27.41%7.41%—7.41%——22.22%
37.41%7.41%————14.81%
47.41%—————7.41%
5+3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
Total48.15%29.63%7.41%14.81%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 0.89 +1.44
SD 1.82 1.09 1.99
CV 0.78 1.22 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%7.41%—3.70%——14.81%
111.11%25.93%11.11%3.70%——51.85%
27.41%—14.81%———22.22%
33.70%3.70%————7.41%
4—3.70%————3.70%
5+———————
Total25.93%40.74%25.93%7.41%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.15 +0.19
SD 0.96 0.91 1.39
CV 0.72 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%7.41%3.70%——18.52%
17.41%11.11%11.11%7.41%—3.70%40.74%
27.41%3.70%3.70%7.41%—3.70%25.93%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——3.70%———3.70%
5+———————
Total18.52%18.52%37.04%18.52%—7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.89 -0.48
SD 1.05 1.45 1.72
CV 0.74 0.77 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.41%7.41%—7.41%—33.33%
111.11%7.41%3.70%—3.70%—25.93%
2—3.70%7.41%———11.11%
33.70%7.41%3.70%———14.81%
4———————
5+3.70%3.70%7.41%———14.81%
Total29.63%29.63%29.63%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.33 +0.33
SD 1.75 1.24 2.24
CV 1.05 0.93 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Heart of Midlothian 1732 57 53.28 +3.72 75.0% 38 42 48 53 57 64 67
Dundee 1612 45 40.01 +4.99 85.0% 27 30 36 40 44 50 56
Inverness CT 1592 36 43.75 -7.75 12.0% 26 33 39 44 47 54 60
Dunfermline Athletic 1552 39 42.23 -3.23 37.0% 22 33 38 42 47 52 58
Arbroath 1540 30 35.36 -5.36 27.0% 19 24 29 35 40 46 55
Raith Rovers 1513 43 29.26 +13.74 99.0% 13 19 25 29 34 39 47
Ayr United 1507 29 37.55 -8.55 11.0% 22 28 33 37 41 47 53
Greenock Morton 1480 29 32.80 -3.80 31.0% 15 23 28 33 37 44 48
Queen of the South 1476 32 29.89 +2.11 66.0% 12 20 25 29 35 41 45
Alloa Athletic 1408 22 26.03 -4.03 25.0% 14 18 22 26 29 34 43

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.81%
Slight Edge
41.48%31.85%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
185 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
051.85500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.28+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
72%
Heart of Midlothian, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.44/gm
Runaway
00.260.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.08 * Some Luck: 5.08 to 7.61 * Lucky: 7.61 to 10.15 * Wild Swing: 10.15 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.74 * Off: 1.74 to 2.32 * Way Off: 2.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.57 * A Surprise: 0.57 to 0.91 * Several Surprises: 0.91 to 1.25 * Many Surprises: 1.25 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.54 points
Some Luck
06.3416
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Off
01.453
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Raith Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
11.00%
Ayr United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.61

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 89.25
1.55
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
63%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
87%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
15%
Occasional
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Coin-Flip
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.29
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.08
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.36
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.68
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.67
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.118
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Heart of Midlothian72.00%18.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%—————
Dundee5.00%16.00%17.00%18.00%15.00%11.00%10.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%
Raith Rovers——2.00%6.00%6.00%14.00%18.00%15.00%17.00%22.00%
Dunfermline Athletic8.00%20.00%26.00%16.00%17.00%9.00%2.00%—2.00%—
Inverness CT9.00%31.00%19.00%20.00%12.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%—
Queen of the South—1.00%3.00%6.00%6.00%11.00%10.00%19.00%23.00%21.00%
Arbroath3.00%5.00%7.00%10.00%18.00%14.00%18.00%9.00%11.00%5.00%
Ayr United3.00%8.00%14.00%11.00%16.00%16.00%17.00%10.00%3.00%2.00%
Greenock Morton—1.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%15.00%16.00%22.00%18.00%6.00%
Alloa Athletic————3.00%5.00%8.00%18.00%23.00%43.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Heart of Midlothian 72.00% 27.00% 1.00% —
Inverness CT 9.00% 70.00% 21.00% —
Dunfermline Athletic 8.00% 62.00% 30.00% —
Dundee 5.00% 51.00% 43.00% 1.00%
Ayr United 3.00% 33.00% 62.00% 2.00%
Arbroath 3.00% 22.00% 70.00% 5.00%
Greenock Morton — 17.00% 77.00% 6.00%
Queen of the South — 10.00% 69.00% 21.00%
Raith Rovers — 8.00% 70.00% 22.00%
Alloa Athletic — — 57.00% 43.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2020-10-16 Dundee W 6-253.8 1637 1562 48.06% 25.72% 26.21%+0.68 +14.5 3
2020-10-16 @ Heart of Midlothian L 2-653.8 1562 1637 26.21% 25.72% 48.06%-0.68 -14.5 0
2020-10-17 Alloa Athletic W 1-050.4 1541 1499 43.70% 26.22% 30.08%+0.51 +6.4 3
2020-10-17 @ Greenock Morton L 0-150.4 1499 1541 30.08% 26.22% 43.70%-0.51 -6.4 0
2020-10-17 Arbroath W 3-049.8 1397 1571 18.31% 23.48% 58.21%-0.66 +29.6 3
2020-10-17 @ Raith Rovers L 0-349.8 1571 1397 58.21% 23.48% 18.31%+0.66 -29.6 0
2020-10-17 Inverness CT W 3-158.7 1564 1589 34.24% 26.47% 39.29%+0.14 +12.8 3
2020-10-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-358.7 1589 1564 39.29% 26.47% 34.24%-0.14 -12.8 0
2020-10-17 Queen of the South W 2-155.4 1553 1499 45.38% 26.06% 28.56%+0.57 +5.8 3
2020-10-17 @ Ayr United L 1-255.4 1499 1553 28.56% 26.06% 45.38%-0.57 -5.8 0
2020-10-23 Heart of Midlothian L 0-153.0 1541 1651 24.04% 25.30% 50.65%-0.32 -5.3 0
2020-10-23 @ Arbroath W 1-053.0 1651 1541 50.65% 25.30% 24.04%+0.32 +5.3 6
2020-10-24 Ayr United D 1-166.6 1576 1559 40.26% 26.44% 33.30%+0.37 -0.3 1
2020-10-24 @ Inverness CT D 1-166.6 1559 1576 33.30% 26.44% 40.26%-0.37 +0.3 4
2020-10-24 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-449.6 1493 1576 26.92% 25.84% 47.24%-0.17 -13.6 0
2020-10-24 @ Alloa Athletic W 4-149.6 1576 1493 47.24% 25.84% 26.92%+0.17 +13.6 6
2020-10-24 Greenock Morton W 1-054.1 1548 1548 37.86% 26.50% 35.64%+0.28 +7.3 3
2020-10-24 @ Dundee L 0-154.1 1548 1548 35.64% 26.50% 37.86%-0.28 -7.3 3
2020-10-24 Raith Rovers L 2-553.0 1493 1426 47.05% 25.86% 27.09%+0.64 -18.1 0
2020-10-24 @ Queen of the South W 5-253.0 1426 1493 27.09% 25.86% 47.05%-0.64 +18.1 6
2020-10-31 Arbroath W 3-154.7 1576 1536 43.45% 26.24% 30.31%+0.50 +10.5 4
2020-10-31 @ Inverness CT L 1-354.7 1536 1576 30.31% 26.24% 43.45%-0.50 -10.6 0
2020-10-31 Ayr United W 3-264.9 1540 1559 35.11% 26.49% 38.40%+0.18 +6.9 6
2020-10-31 @ Greenock Morton L 2-364.9 1559 1540 38.40% 26.49% 35.11%-0.18 -6.9 4
2020-10-31 Queen of the South W 3-258.3 1590 1475 53.11% 24.81% 22.08%+0.90 +4.4 9
2020-10-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-358.3 1475 1590 22.08% 24.81% 53.11%-0.90 -4.4 0
2020-10-31 Raith Rovers D 1-162.3 1555 1445 52.58% 24.92% 22.50%+0.88 -1.3 4
2020-10-31 @ Dundee D 1-162.3 1445 1555 22.50% 24.92% 52.58%-0.88 +1.3 7
2020-11-06 Dundee D 3-372.4 1479 1554 27.98% 25.99% 46.03%-0.12 +0.5 1
2020-11-06 @ Alloa Athletic D 3-372.4 1554 1479 46.03% 25.99% 27.98%+0.12 -0.5 5
2020-11-07 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.7 1553 1594 32.02% 26.37% 41.61%+0.05 +0.4 5
2020-11-07 @ Ayr United D 0-062.7 1594 1553 41.61% 26.37% 32.02%-0.05 -0.4 10
2020-11-07 Greenock Morton W 5-049.0 1446 1547 24.95% 25.49% 49.55%-0.27 +41.7 10
2020-11-07 @ Raith Rovers L 0-549.0 1547 1446 49.55% 25.49% 24.95%+0.27 -41.7 6
2020-11-07 Inverness CT W 2-160.0 1657 1587 47.50% 25.80% 26.70%+0.66 +5.5 9
2020-11-07 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-260.0 1587 1657 26.70% 25.80% 47.50%-0.66 -5.5 4
2020-11-07 Queen of the South D 1-161.9 1525 1471 45.43% 26.05% 28.52%+0.58 -0.7 1
2020-11-07 @ Arbroath D 1-161.9 1471 1525 28.52% 26.05% 45.43%-0.58 +0.7 1
2020-11-20 Heart of Midlothian W 2-165.9 1594 1662 28.72% 26.08% 45.21%-0.09 +8.3 13
2020-11-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-265.9 1662 1594 45.21% 26.08% 28.72%+0.09 -8.3 9
2020-11-21 Alloa Athletic W 2-045.7 1471 1480 36.63% 26.51% 36.86%+0.23 +14.1 4
2020-11-21 @ Queen of the South L 0-245.7 1480 1471 36.86% 26.51% 36.63%-0.23 -14.1 1
2020-11-21 Dundee W 2-051.0 1553 1553 37.79% 26.50% 35.71%+0.28 +13.8 8
2020-11-21 @ Ayr United L 0-251.0 1553 1553 35.71% 26.50% 37.79%-0.28 -13.8 5
2020-11-21 Greenock Morton D 0-058.8 1525 1506 40.55% 26.42% 33.02%+0.38 -0.3 2
2020-11-21 @ Arbroath D 0-058.8 1506 1525 33.02% 26.42% 40.55%-0.38 +0.3 7
2020-11-21 Raith Rovers W 2-045.9 1581 1487 50.48% 25.33% 24.19%+0.79 +10.1 7
2020-11-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-245.9 1487 1581 24.19% 25.33% 50.48%-0.79 -10.1 10
2020-11-24 Alloa Athletic W 3-042.2 1654 1466 61.40% 22.44% 16.16%+1.30 +10.0 12
2020-11-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-342.2 1466 1654 16.16% 22.44% 61.40%-1.30 -10.0 1
2020-12-04 Inverness CT L 0-344.2 1486 1591 24.52% 25.40% 50.08%-0.29 -14.9 4
2020-12-04 @ Queen of the South W 3-044.2 1591 1486 50.08% 25.40% 24.52%+0.29 +14.9 10
2020-12-05 Arbroath W 1-052.4 1540 1524 40.00% 26.45% 33.56%+0.36 +7.0 8
2020-12-05 @ Dundee L 0-152.4 1524 1540 33.56% 26.45% 40.00%-0.36 -7.0 2
2020-12-05 Ayr United L 0-244.1 1456 1567 23.95% 25.28% 50.77%-0.32 -10.0 1
2020-12-05 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-044.1 1567 1456 50.77% 25.28% 23.95%+0.32 +10.0 11
2020-12-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-270.5 1477 1602 22.58% 24.94% 52.48%-0.40 +0.9 11
2020-12-05 @ Raith Rovers D 2-270.5 1602 1477 52.48% 24.94% 22.58%+0.40 -0.9 14
2020-12-05 Heart of Midlothian L 0-247.2 1506 1664 19.60% 24.00% 56.41%-0.57 -8.4 7
2020-12-05 @ Greenock Morton W 2-047.2 1664 1506 56.41% 24.00% 19.60%+0.57 +8.4 15
2020-12-11 Raith Rovers D 0-060.1 1577 1478 51.10% 25.22% 23.68%+0.81 -1.3 12
2020-12-11 @ Ayr United D 0-060.1 1478 1577 23.68% 25.22% 51.10%-0.81 +1.3 12
2020-12-12 Alloa Athletic L 0-152.7 1517 1446 47.68% 25.78% 26.54%+0.67 -9.2 2
2020-12-12 @ Arbroath W 1-052.7 1446 1517 26.54% 25.78% 47.68%-0.67 +9.2 4
2020-12-12 Dundee D 2-272.4 1606 1547 46.07% 25.98% 27.94%+0.60 -0.5 11
2020-12-12 @ Inverness CT D 2-272.4 1547 1606 27.94% 25.98% 46.07%-0.60 +0.5 9
2020-12-12 Greenock Morton L 1-263.7 1601 1498 51.76% 25.09% 23.15%+0.84 -9.2 14
2020-12-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-163.7 1498 1601 23.15% 25.09% 51.76%-0.84 +9.2 10
2020-12-12 Queen of the South W 6-145.6 1672 1471 62.79% 21.93% 15.28%+1.37 +12.6 18
2020-12-12 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-645.6 1471 1672 15.28% 21.93% 62.79%-1.37 -12.6 4
2020-12-19 Ayr United W 2-161.4 1508 1576 28.82% 26.09% 45.09%-0.08 +8.3 5
2020-12-19 @ Arbroath L 1-261.4 1576 1508 45.09% 26.09% 28.82%+0.08 -8.2 12
2020-12-19 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-375.8 1547 1592 31.61% 26.34% 42.05%+0.04 +0.2 10
2020-12-19 @ Dundee D 3-375.8 1592 1547 42.05% 26.34% 31.61%-0.04 -0.3 15
2020-12-19 Inverness CT W 2-163.2 1455 1605 20.23% 24.23% 55.54%-0.53 +9.8 7
2020-12-19 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-263.2 1605 1455 55.54% 24.23% 20.23%+0.53 -9.8 11
2020-12-19 Queen of the South W 2-043.8 1507 1458 44.63% 26.14% 29.24%+0.54 +11.8 13
2020-12-19 @ Greenock Morton L 0-243.8 1458 1507 29.24% 26.14% 44.63%-0.54 -11.8 4
2020-12-26 Arbroath W 1-051.4 1592 1516 48.17% 25.71% 26.12%+0.69 +5.7 18
2020-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-151.4 1516 1592 26.12% 25.71% 48.17%-0.69 -5.7 5
2020-12-26 Ayr United W 5-360.9 1685 1567 53.45% 24.73% 21.82%+0.92 +6.8 21
2020-12-26 @ Heart of Midlothian L 3-560.9 1567 1685 21.82% 24.73% 53.45%-0.92 -6.8 12
2020-12-26 Dundee L 1-348.7 1446 1547 24.99% 25.50% 49.51%-0.27 -9.0 4
2020-12-26 @ Queen of the South W 3-148.7 1547 1446 49.51% 25.50% 24.99%+0.27 +9.0 13
2020-12-26 Raith Rovers L 2-550.6 1465 1480 35.70% 26.50% 37.80%+0.20 -14.6 7
2020-12-26 @ Alloa Athletic W 5-250.6 1480 1465 37.80% 26.50% 35.70%-0.20 +14.7 15
2020-12-29 Alloa Athletic W 3-148.4 1556 1450 52.07% 25.03% 22.90%+0.85 +8.4 16
2020-12-29 @ Dundee L 1-348.4 1450 1556 22.90% 25.03% 52.07%-0.85 -8.4 7
2020-12-29 Arbroath W 3-152.0 1692 1511 60.62% 22.71% 16.67%+1.26 +6.2 24
2020-12-29 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-352.0 1511 1692 16.67% 22.71% 60.62%-1.26 -6.2 5
2020-12-29 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-168.1 1596 1598 37.56% 26.50% 35.94%+0.27 -0.1 12
2020-12-29 @ Inverness CT D 1-168.1 1598 1596 35.94% 26.50% 37.56%-0.27 +0.1 19
2020-12-29 Greenock Morton D 1-164.8 1561 1519 43.71% 26.22% 30.07%+0.51 -0.5 13
2020-12-29 @ Ayr United D 1-164.8 1519 1561 30.07% 26.22% 43.71%-0.51 +0.6 14
2020-12-29 Queen of the South L 0-247.5 1494 1437 45.74% 26.02% 28.24%+0.59 -16.7 15
2020-12-29 @ Raith Rovers W 2-047.5 1437 1494 28.24% 26.02% 45.74%-0.59 +16.7 7
2021-01-02 Ayr United W 3-265.0 1454 1560 24.47% 25.39% 50.13%-0.29 +8.5 10
2021-01-02 @ Queen of the South L 2-365.0 1560 1454 50.13% 25.39% 24.47%+0.29 -8.5 13
2021-01-02 Greenock Morton D 1-160.6 1442 1519 27.61% 25.94% 46.45%-0.14 +0.8 8
2021-01-02 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-160.6 1519 1442 46.45% 25.94% 27.61%+0.14 -0.8 15
2021-01-02 Heart of Midlothian W 3-164.8 1565 1698 21.79% 24.73% 53.48%-0.44 +16.5 19
2021-01-02 @ Dundee L 1-364.8 1698 1565 53.48% 24.73% 21.79%+0.44 -16.5 24
2021-01-15 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-061.9 1518 1598 27.41% 25.91% 46.68%-0.15 +0.9 16
2021-01-15 @ Greenock Morton D 0-061.9 1598 1518 46.68% 25.91% 27.41%+0.15 -0.9 20
2021-01-16 Arbroath D 2-265.9 1462 1505 32.00% 26.37% 41.63%+0.05 +0.3 11
2021-01-16 @ Queen of the South D 2-265.9 1505 1462 41.63% 26.37% 32.00%-0.05 -0.3 6
2021-01-16 Heart of Midlothian L 1-348.6 1442 1681 13.92% 21.06% 65.02%-1.01 -5.1 8
2021-01-16 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-148.6 1681 1442 65.02% 21.06% 13.92%+1.01 +5.1 27
2021-01-22 Dundee D 1-165.1 1504 1581 27.69% 25.95% 46.36%-0.14 +0.8 7
2021-01-22 @ Arbroath D 1-165.1 1581 1504 46.36% 25.95% 27.69%+0.14 -0.8 20
2021-01-23 Ayr United D 0-062.8 1597 1551 44.18% 26.18% 29.64%+0.53 -0.6 21
2021-01-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.8 1551 1597 29.64% 26.18% 44.18%-0.53 +0.6 14
2021-01-23 Greenock Morton W 2-157.3 1463 1519 30.15% 26.23% 43.62%-0.03 +8.0 14
2021-01-23 @ Queen of the South L 1-257.3 1519 1463 43.62% 26.23% 30.15%+0.03 -8.0 16
2021-01-23 Raith Rovers L 2-372.9 1687 1478 63.54% 21.65% 14.81%+1.41 -10.4 27
2021-01-23 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-272.9 1478 1687 14.81% 21.65% 63.54%-1.41 +10.4 18
2021-01-26 Heart of Midlothian L 0-443.6 1488 1676 17.25% 23.00% 59.76%-0.74 -14.0 18
2021-01-26 @ Raith Rovers W 4-043.6 1676 1488 59.76% 23.00% 17.25%+0.74 +14.0 30
2021-01-27 Inverness CT D 2-271.1 1511 1596 26.83% 25.82% 47.35%-0.18 +0.6 17
2021-01-27 @ Greenock Morton D 2-271.1 1596 1511 47.35% 25.82% 26.83%+0.18 -0.6 13
2021-01-30 Alloa Athletic W 4-144.9 1552 1437 53.10% 24.81% 22.09%+0.90 +11.4 17
2021-01-30 @ Ayr United L 1-444.9 1437 1552 22.09% 24.81% 53.10%-0.90 -11.4 8
2021-01-30 Arbroath L 0-152.2 1512 1505 38.81% 26.48% 34.70%+0.32 -7.8 17
2021-01-30 @ Greenock Morton W 1-052.2 1505 1512 34.70% 26.48% 38.81%-0.32 +7.8 10
2021-01-30 Dundee W 3-158.4 1474 1580 24.43% 25.39% 50.18%-0.29 +15.6 21
2021-01-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-358.4 1580 1474 50.18% 25.39% 24.43%+0.29 -15.6 20
2021-01-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-054.8 1690 1596 50.53% 25.32% 24.14%+0.79 +5.4 33
2021-01-30 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-154.8 1596 1690 24.14% 25.32% 50.53%-0.79 -5.4 21
2021-02-03 Inverness CT D 1-165.9 1513 1595 27.08% 25.86% 47.05%-0.16 +0.8 11
2021-02-03 @ Arbroath D 1-165.9 1595 1513 47.05% 25.86% 27.08%+0.16 -0.8 14
2021-02-03 Raith Rovers W 4-148.7 1591 1490 51.44% 25.15% 23.41%+0.83 +12.0 24
2021-02-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-448.7 1490 1591 23.41% 25.15% 51.44%-0.83 -12.0 21
2021-02-05 Heart of Midlothian L 0-153.5 1564 1696 21.91% 24.76% 53.33%-0.43 -4.9 17
2021-02-05 @ Ayr United W 1-053.5 1696 1564 53.33% 24.76% 21.91%+0.43 +4.9 36
2021-02-06 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-054.7 1514 1603 26.29% 25.74% 47.98%-0.20 +17.4 14
2021-02-06 @ Arbroath L 0-254.7 1603 1514 47.98% 25.74% 26.29%+0.20 -17.4 24
2021-02-06 Queen of the South W 2-153.9 1426 1471 31.63% 26.34% 42.03%+0.04 +7.8 11
2021-02-06 @ Alloa Athletic L 1-253.9 1471 1426 42.03% 26.34% 31.63%-0.04 -7.8 14
2021-02-06 Raith Rovers L 0-151.7 1504 1478 41.59% 26.37% 32.04%+0.42 -8.2 17
2021-02-06 @ Greenock Morton W 1-051.7 1478 1504 32.04% 26.37% 41.59%-0.42 +8.2 24
2021-02-12 Heart of Midlothian D 1-169.0 1463 1700 14.02% 21.13% 64.86%-1.00 +2.2 15
2021-02-12 @ Queen of the South D 1-169.0 1700 1463 64.86% 21.13% 14.02%+1.00 -2.2 37
2021-02-13 Arbroath D 1-160.8 1434 1531 25.39% 25.58% 49.03%-0.25 +1.0 12
2021-02-13 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-160.8 1531 1434 49.03% 25.58% 25.39%+0.25 -1.0 15
2021-02-17 Queen of the South L 0-158.0 1594 1465 54.78% 24.42% 20.80%+0.98 -10.3 14
2021-02-17 @ Inverness CT W 1-058.0 1465 1594 20.80% 24.42% 54.78%-0.98 +10.3 18
2021-02-20 Alloa Athletic W 2-150.6 1585 1435 57.31% 23.75% 18.95%+1.10 +4.0 27
2021-02-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-250.6 1435 1585 18.95% 23.75% 57.31%-1.10 -4.0 12
2021-02-20 Greenock Morton D 1-169.5 1698 1496 62.85% 21.91% 15.24%+1.37 -2.1 38
2021-02-20 @ Heart of Midlothian D 1-169.5 1496 1698 15.24% 21.91% 62.85%-1.37 +2.1 18
2021-02-20 Inverness CT L 0-251.6 1559 1584 34.26% 26.47% 39.26%+0.14 -13.4 17
2021-02-20 @ Ayr United W 2-051.6 1584 1559 39.26% 26.47% 34.26%-0.14 +13.4 17
2021-02-20 Queen of the South L 2-365.9 1565 1476 49.94% 25.43% 24.63%+0.76 -8.5 20
2021-02-20 @ Dundee W 3-265.9 1476 1565 24.63% 25.43% 49.94%-0.76 +8.5 21
2021-02-20 Raith Rovers W 1-049.4 1530 1486 44.03% 26.19% 29.77%+0.52 +6.4 18
2021-02-20 @ Arbroath L 0-149.4 1486 1530 29.77% 26.19% 44.03%-0.52 -6.4 24
2021-02-23 Alloa Athletic D 2-269.1 1597 1431 59.07% 23.22% 17.71%+1.18 -1.3 18
2021-02-23 @ Inverness CT D 2-269.1 1431 1597 17.71% 23.22% 59.07%-1.18 +1.3 13
2021-02-26 Heart of Midlothian D 1-170.2 1596 1696 25.09% 25.52% 49.39%-0.26 +1.0 19
2021-02-26 @ Inverness CT D 1-170.2 1696 1596 49.39% 25.52% 25.09%+0.26 -1.0 39
2021-02-27 Alloa Athletic W 3-147.2 1479 1432 44.46% 26.15% 29.39%+0.54 +10.3 27
2021-02-27 @ Raith Rovers L 1-347.2 1432 1479 29.39% 26.15% 44.46%-0.54 -10.3 13
2021-02-27 Arbroath L 0-154.7 1545 1536 39.10% 26.48% 34.43%+0.33 -7.8 17
2021-02-27 @ Ayr United W 1-054.7 1536 1545 34.43% 26.48% 39.10%-0.33 +7.8 21
2021-02-27 Dundee D 2-269.2 1498 1556 29.92% 26.21% 43.87%-0.04 +0.4 19
2021-02-27 @ Greenock Morton D 2-269.2 1556 1498 43.87% 26.21% 29.92%+0.04 -0.4 21
2021-02-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-057.4 1484 1590 24.53% 25.41% 50.06%-0.29 +9.5 24
2021-02-27 @ Queen of the South L 0-157.4 1590 1484 50.06% 25.41% 24.53%+0.29 -9.5 27
2021-03-02 Inverness CT W 2-162.6 1556 1597 32.13% 26.38% 41.49%+0.06 +7.7 24
2021-03-02 @ Dundee L 1-262.6 1597 1556 41.49% 26.38% 32.13%-0.06 -7.7 19
2021-03-06 Ayr United L 0-247.5 1498 1537 32.40% 26.39% 41.21%+0.07 -12.8 19
2021-03-06 @ Greenock Morton W 2-047.5 1537 1498 41.21% 26.39% 32.40%-0.07 +12.8 20
2021-03-06 Dundee W 2-158.0 1695 1564 55.08% 24.35% 20.57%+0.99 +4.4 42
2021-03-06 @ Heart of Midlothian L 1-258.0 1564 1695 20.57% 24.35% 55.08%-0.99 -4.4 24
2021-03-06 Inverness CT D 1-163.1 1422 1589 18.83% 23.70% 57.47%-0.63 +1.7 14
2021-03-06 @ Alloa Athletic D 1-163.1 1589 1422 57.47% 23.70% 18.83%+0.63 -1.7 20
2021-03-06 Queen of the South L 2-460.3 1544 1494 44.90% 26.11% 28.99%+0.55 -12.8 21
2021-03-06 @ Arbroath W 4-260.3 1494 1544 28.99% 26.11% 44.90%-0.55 +12.7 27
2021-03-09 Ayr United D 0-059.2 1490 1550 29.65% 26.18% 44.17%-0.05 +0.6 28
2021-03-09 @ Raith Rovers D 0-059.2 1550 1490 44.17% 26.18% 29.65%+0.05 -0.7 21
2021-03-09 Greenock Morton L 0-157.7 1588 1486 51.53% 25.14% 23.33%+0.83 -9.8 20
2021-03-09 @ Inverness CT W 1-057.7 1486 1588 23.33% 25.14% 51.53%-0.83 +9.8 22
2021-03-12 Raith Rovers D 0-060.5 1578 1490 49.71% 25.47% 24.82%+0.75 -1.2 21
2021-03-12 @ Inverness CT D 0-060.5 1490 1578 24.82% 25.47% 49.71%-0.75 +1.2 29
2021-03-13 Alloa Athletic L 2-361.7 1506 1423 49.14% 25.56% 25.30%+0.73 -8.4 27
2021-03-13 @ Queen of the South W 3-261.7 1423 1506 25.30% 25.56% 49.14%-0.73 +8.4 17
2021-03-13 Arbroath W 2-049.3 1559 1531 41.75% 26.36% 31.89%+0.43 +12.7 27
2021-03-13 @ Dundee L 0-249.3 1531 1559 31.89% 26.36% 41.75%-0.43 -12.7 21
2021-03-13 Ayr United W 2-048.7 1699 1550 57.20% 23.78% 19.02%+1.09 +8.1 45
2021-03-13 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-248.7 1550 1699 19.02% 23.78% 57.20%-1.09 -8.1 21
2021-03-13 Greenock Morton W 1-050.0 1580 1495 49.36% 25.53% 25.12%+0.74 +5.5 30
2021-03-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-150.0 1495 1580 25.12% 25.53% 49.36%-0.74 -5.5 22
2021-03-16 Ayr United L 1-358.3 1572 1541 42.13% 26.34% 31.53%+0.44 -13.6 27
2021-03-16 @ Dundee W 3-158.3 1541 1572 31.53% 26.34% 42.13%-0.44 +13.6 24
2021-03-16 Inverness CT L 0-150.3 1491 1577 26.74% 25.81% 47.45%-0.18 -5.8 29
2021-03-16 @ Raith Rovers W 1-050.3 1577 1491 47.45% 25.81% 26.74%+0.18 +5.8 24
2021-03-19 Dundee L 0-340.3 1432 1558 22.41% 24.90% 52.68%-0.40 -13.7 17
2021-03-19 @ Alloa Athletic W 3-040.3 1558 1432 52.68% 24.90% 22.41%+0.40 +13.7 30
2021-03-20 Heart of Midlothian D 0-065.6 1519 1708 17.21% 22.98% 59.82%-0.74 +2.1 22
2021-03-20 @ Arbroath D 0-065.6 1708 1519 59.82% 22.98% 17.21%+0.74 -2.1 46
2021-03-20 Inverness CT L 0-157.0 1586 1582 38.28% 26.49% 35.23%+0.30 -7.7 30
2021-03-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-057.0 1582 1586 35.23% 26.49% 38.28%-0.30 +7.7 27
2021-03-20 Queen of the South W 2-155.6 1490 1498 36.67% 26.51% 36.83%+0.24 +7.1 25
2021-03-20 @ Greenock Morton L 1-255.6 1498 1490 36.83% 26.51% 36.67%-0.24 -7.1 27
2021-03-20 Raith Rovers D 1-163.6 1555 1486 47.38% 25.82% 26.80%+0.66 -0.8 25
2021-03-20 @ Ayr United D 1-163.6 1486 1555 26.80% 25.82% 47.38%-0.66 +0.9 30
2021-03-27 Arbroath W 1-051.8 1590 1521 47.37% 25.82% 26.81%+0.65 +5.9 30
2021-03-27 @ Inverness CT L 0-151.8 1521 1590 26.81% 25.82% 47.37%-0.65 -5.9 22
2021-03-27 Ayr United D 2-266.6 1418 1554 21.52% 24.65% 53.84%-0.46 +1.0 18
2021-03-27 @ Alloa Athletic D 2-266.6 1554 1418 53.84% 24.65% 21.52%+0.46 -1.0 26
2021-03-27 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-265.8 1572 1578 37.02% 26.51% 36.47%+0.25 +6.7 33
2021-03-27 @ Dundee L 2-365.8 1578 1572 36.47% 26.51% 37.02%-0.25 -6.7 30
2021-03-27 Greenock Morton W 1-050.5 1486 1497 36.36% 26.51% 37.14%+0.22 +7.5 33
2021-03-27 @ Raith Rovers L 0-150.5 1497 1486 37.14% 26.51% 36.36%-0.22 -7.5 25
2021-03-27 Queen of the South L 2-373.8 1706 1491 64.11% 21.43% 14.47%+1.44 -10.5 46
2021-03-27 @ Heart of Midlothian W 3-273.8 1491 1706 14.47% 21.43% 64.11%-1.44 +10.5 30
2021-03-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-154.0 1494 1571 27.66% 25.94% 46.40%-0.14 +26.7 36
2021-03-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-554.0 1571 1494 46.40% 25.94% 27.66%+0.14 -26.7 30
2021-04-03 Alloa Athletic W 2-149.4 1515 1419 50.79% 25.28% 23.93%+0.80 +5.0 25
2021-04-03 @ Arbroath L 1-249.4 1419 1515 23.93% 25.28% 50.79%-0.80 -5.0 18
2021-04-03 Heart of Midlothian D 0-065.5 1544 1695 20.24% 24.23% 55.53%-0.53 +1.7 31
2021-04-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-065.5 1695 1544 55.53% 24.23% 20.24%+0.53 -1.7 47
2021-04-06 Dundee L 0-349.2 1553 1579 34.22% 26.47% 39.31%+0.14 -19.4 26
2021-04-06 @ Ayr United W 3-049.2 1579 1553 39.31% 26.47% 34.22%-0.14 +19.4 36
2021-04-06 Inverness CT L 1-449.3 1489 1596 24.40% 25.38% 50.22%-0.30 -12.5 25
2021-04-06 @ Greenock Morton W 4-149.3 1596 1489 50.22% 25.38% 24.40%+0.30 +12.5 33
2021-04-09 Alloa Athletic W 6-040.3 1693 1414 70.24% 18.74% 11.02%+1.79 +12.6 50
2021-04-09 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-640.3 1414 1693 11.02% 18.74% 70.24%-1.79 -12.6 18
2021-04-10 Arbroath D 2-268.6 1521 1520 37.94% 26.50% 35.56%+0.28 -0.1 37
2021-04-10 @ Raith Rovers D 2-268.6 1520 1521 35.56% 26.50% 37.94%-0.28 +0.1 26
2021-04-10 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-164.8 1534 1546 36.06% 26.51% 37.43%+0.21 +0.0 27
2021-04-10 @ Ayr United D 1-164.8 1546 1534 37.43% 26.51% 36.06%-0.21 -0.0 32
2021-04-10 Greenock Morton D 1-165.2 1598 1477 53.89% 24.63% 21.48%+0.94 -1.4 37
2021-04-10 @ Dundee D 1-165.2 1477 1598 21.48% 24.63% 53.89%-0.94 +1.4 26
2021-04-10 Inverness CT D 1-166.1 1501 1608 24.35% 25.37% 50.28%-0.30 +1.1 31
2021-04-10 @ Queen of the South D 1-166.1 1608 1501 50.28% 25.37% 24.35%+0.30 -1.1 34
2021-04-13 Dundee D 0-062.6 1546 1597 30.88% 26.29% 42.83%+0.01 +0.5 33
2021-04-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.6 1597 1546 42.83% 26.29% 30.88%-0.01 -0.5 38
2021-04-13 Raith Rovers L 0-151.4 1502 1521 35.23% 26.49% 38.27%+0.18 -7.3 31
2021-04-13 @ Queen of the South W 1-051.4 1521 1502 38.27% 26.49% 35.23%-0.18 +7.2 40
2021-04-17 Ayr United W 4-047.3 1520 1534 35.88% 26.50% 37.61%+0.21 +27.2 29
2021-04-17 @ Arbroath L 0-447.3 1534 1520 37.61% 26.50% 35.88%-0.21 -27.2 27
2021-04-17 Queen of the South W 3-151.8 1547 1495 45.00% 26.10% 28.90%+0.56 +10.2 36
2021-04-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-351.8 1495 1547 28.90% 26.10% 45.00%-0.56 -10.2 31
2021-04-17 Raith Rovers L 1-248.7 1401 1528 22.42% 24.90% 52.67%-0.40 -4.7 18
2021-04-17 @ Alloa Athletic W 2-148.7 1528 1401 52.67% 24.90% 22.42%+0.40 +4.7 43
2021-04-20 Dundee D 1-168.3 1607 1596 39.43% 26.47% 34.11%+0.34 -0.2 35
2021-04-20 @ Inverness CT D 1-168.3 1596 1607 34.11% 26.47% 39.43%-0.34 +0.2 39
2021-04-20 Heart of Midlothian D 0-065.1 1478 1706 14.59% 21.51% 63.90%-0.95 +2.4 27
2021-04-20 @ Greenock Morton D 0-065.1 1706 1478 63.90% 21.51% 14.59%+0.95 -2.4 51
2021-04-24 Alloa Athletic D 1-157.9 1481 1397 49.26% 25.54% 25.20%+0.73 -1.0 28
2021-04-24 @ Greenock Morton D 1-157.9 1397 1481 25.20% 25.54% 49.26%-0.73 +1.0 19
2021-04-24 Arbroath W 4-366.6 1557 1547 39.18% 26.47% 34.35%+0.33 +6.2 39
2021-04-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 3-466.6 1547 1557 34.35% 26.47% 39.18%-0.33 -6.2 29
2021-04-24 Inverness CT W 3-049.4 1704 1607 50.83% 25.27% 23.90%+0.80 +14.5 54
2021-04-24 @ Heart of Midlothian L 0-349.4 1607 1704 23.90% 25.27% 50.83%-0.80 -14.5 35
2021-04-24 Queen of the South D 0-057.4 1507 1485 40.89% 26.41% 32.70%+0.40 -0.4 28
2021-04-24 @ Ayr United D 0-057.4 1485 1507 32.70% 26.41% 40.89%-0.40 +0.4 32
2021-04-24 Raith Rovers W 2-157.6 1596 1533 46.65% 25.91% 27.44%+0.63 +5.6 42
2021-04-24 @ Dundee L 1-257.6 1533 1596 27.44% 25.91% 46.65%-0.63 -5.6 43
2021-04-30 Ayr United D 2-271.0 1593 1506 49.59% 25.49% 24.92%+0.75 -0.8 36
2021-04-30 @ Inverness CT D 2-271.0 1506 1593 24.92% 25.49% 49.59%-0.75 +0.8 29
2021-04-30 Dundee L 0-246.2 1485 1602 23.38% 25.15% 51.47%-0.35 -9.8 32
2021-04-30 @ Queen of the South W 2-046.2 1602 1485 51.47% 25.15% 23.38%+0.35 +9.8 45
2021-04-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-054.9 1398 1563 19.01% 23.77% 57.22%-0.61 +10.7 22
2021-04-30 @ Alloa Athletic L 0-154.9 1563 1398 57.22% 23.77% 19.01%+0.61 -10.7 39
2021-04-30 Greenock Morton D 0-058.6 1541 1480 46.35% 25.95% 27.70%+0.61 -0.9 30
2021-04-30 @ Arbroath D 0-058.6 1480 1541 27.70% 25.95% 46.35%-0.61 +0.9 29
2021-04-30 Heart of Midlothian L 0-445.3 1527 1718 17.04% 22.90% 60.06%-0.75 -13.8 43
2021-04-30 @ Raith Rovers W 4-045.3 1718 1527 60.06% 22.90% 17.04%+0.75 +13.8 57

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2021-03-27 14.47% Queen of the South 1491 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1706 2
2 2021-01-23 14.81% Raith Rovers 1478 3 @ Heart of Midlothian 1687 2
3 2020-10-17 18.31% @ Raith Rovers 1397 3 Arbroath 1571 0
4 2021-04-30 19.01% @ Alloa Athletic 1398 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1563 0
5 2020-12-19 20.23% @ Alloa Athletic 1455 2 Inverness CT 1605 1
6 2021-02-17 20.80% Queen of the South 1465 1 @ Inverness CT 1594 0
7 2021-01-02 21.79% @ Dundee 1565 3 Heart of Midlothian 1698 1
8 2020-12-12 23.15% Greenock Morton 1498 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1601 1
9 2021-03-09 23.33% Greenock Morton 1486 1 @ Inverness CT 1588 0
10 2021-01-30 24.43% @ Raith Rovers 1474 3 Dundee 1580 1
11 2021-01-02 24.47% @ Queen of the South 1454 3 Ayr United 1560 2
12 2021-02-27 24.53% @ Queen of the South 1484 1 Dunfermline Athletic 1590 0
13 2021-02-20 24.63% Queen of the South 1476 3 @ Dundee 1565 2
14 2020-11-07 24.95% @ Raith Rovers 1446 5 Greenock Morton 1547 0
15 2021-03-13 25.30% Alloa Athletic 1423 3 @ Queen of the South 1506 2
16 2021-02-06 26.29% @ Arbroath 1514 2 Dunfermline Athletic 1603 0
17 2020-12-12 26.54% Alloa Athletic 1446 1 @ Arbroath 1517 0
18 2020-10-24 27.09% Raith Rovers 1426 5 @ Queen of the South 1493 2
19 2021-03-30 27.66% @ Raith Rovers 1494 5 Dunfermline Athletic 1571 1
20 2020-12-29 28.24% Queen of the South 1437 2 @ Raith Rovers 1494 0
21 2020-11-20 28.72% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1594 2 Heart of Midlothian 1662 1
22 2020-12-19 28.82% @ Arbroath 1508 2 Ayr United 1576 1
23 2021-03-06 28.99% Queen of the South 1494 4 @ Arbroath 1544 2
24 2021-01-23 30.15% @ Queen of the South 1463 2 Greenock Morton 1519 1
25 2021-03-16 31.53% Ayr United 1541 3 @ Dundee 1572 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-11-07 41.70 @ Raith Rovers 5 1446 24.95% Greenock Morton 0 1547 49.55% 25.49%
2 2020-10-17 29.62 @ Raith Rovers 3 1397 18.31% Arbroath 0 1571 58.21% 23.48%
3 2021-04-17 27.24 @ Arbroath 4 1520 35.88% Ayr United 0 1534 37.61% 26.50%
4 2021-03-30 26.72 @ Raith Rovers 5 1494 27.66% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1571 46.40% 25.94%
5 2021-04-06 19.43 Dundee 3 1579 39.31% @ Ayr United 0 1553 34.22% 26.47%
6 2020-10-24 18.13 Raith Rovers 5 1426 27.09% @ Queen of the South 2 1493 47.05% 25.86%
7 2021-02-06 17.36 @ Arbroath 2 1514 26.29% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1603 47.98% 25.74%
8 2020-12-29 16.71 Queen of the South 2 1437 28.24% @ Raith Rovers 0 1494 45.74% 26.02%
9 2021-01-02 16.46 @ Dundee 3 1565 21.79% Heart of Midlothian 1 1698 53.48% 24.73%
10 2021-01-30 15.60 @ Raith Rovers 3 1474 24.43% Dundee 1 1580 50.18% 25.39%
11 2020-12-04 14.86 Inverness CT 3 1591 50.08% @ Queen of the South 0 1486 24.52% 25.40%
12 2020-12-26 14.65 Raith Rovers 5 1480 37.80% @ Alloa Athletic 2 1465 35.70% 26.50%
13 2020-10-16 14.54 @ Heart of Midlothian 6 1637 48.06% Dundee 2 1562 26.21% 25.72%
14 2021-04-24 14.54 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1704 50.83% Inverness CT 0 1607 23.90% 25.27%
15 2020-11-21 14.15 @ Queen of the South 2 1471 36.63% Alloa Athletic 0 1480 36.86% 26.51%
16 2021-01-26 13.98 Heart of Midlothian 4 1676 59.76% @ Raith Rovers 0 1488 17.25% 23.00%
17 2021-04-30 13.82 Heart of Midlothian 4 1718 60.06% @ Raith Rovers 0 1527 17.04% 22.90%
18 2020-11-21 13.82 @ Ayr United 2 1553 37.79% Dundee 0 1553 35.71% 26.50%
19 2021-03-19 13.74 Dundee 3 1558 52.68% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1432 22.41% 24.90%
20 2020-10-24 13.57 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1576 47.24% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1493 26.92% 25.84%
21 2021-03-16 13.56 Ayr United 3 1541 31.53% @ Dundee 1 1572 42.13% 26.34%
22 2021-02-20 13.40 Inverness CT 2 1584 39.26% @ Ayr United 0 1559 34.26% 26.47%
23 2020-10-17 12.85 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1564 34.24% Inverness CT 1 1589 39.29% 26.47%
24 2021-03-06 12.84 Ayr United 2 1537 41.21% @ Greenock Morton 0 1498 32.40% 26.39%
25 2021-03-06 12.75 Queen of the South 4 1494 28.99% @ Arbroath 2 1544 44.90% 26.11%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2020-12-19 75.8 @ Dundee 3 1547 31.61% Dunfermline Athletic 3 1592 42.05% 26.34%
2 2021-03-27 73.8 Queen of the South 3 1491 14.47% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1706 64.11% 21.43%
3 2021-01-23 72.9 Raith Rovers 3 1478 14.81% @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1687 63.54% 21.65%
4 2020-11-06 72.4 @ Alloa Athletic 3 1479 27.98% Dundee 3 1554 46.03% 25.99%
5 2020-12-12 72.4 @ Inverness CT 2 1606 46.07% Dundee 2 1547 27.94% 25.98%
6 2021-01-27 71.1 @ Greenock Morton 2 1511 26.83% Inverness CT 2 1596 47.35% 25.82%
7 2021-04-30 71.0 @ Inverness CT 2 1593 49.59% Ayr United 2 1506 24.92% 25.49%
8 2020-12-05 70.5 @ Raith Rovers 2 1477 22.58% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1602 52.48% 24.94%
9 2021-02-26 70.2 @ Inverness CT 1 1596 25.09% Heart of Midlothian 1 1696 49.39% 25.52%
10 2021-02-20 69.5 @ Heart of Midlothian 1 1698 62.85% Greenock Morton 1 1496 15.24% 21.91%
11 2021-02-27 69.2 @ Greenock Morton 2 1498 29.92% Dundee 2 1556 43.87% 26.21%
12 2021-02-23 69.1 @ Inverness CT 2 1597 59.07% Alloa Athletic 2 1431 17.71% 23.22%
13 2021-02-12 69.0 @ Queen of the South 1 1463 14.02% Heart of Midlothian 1 1700 64.86% 21.13%
14 2021-04-10 68.6 @ Raith Rovers 2 1521 37.94% Arbroath 2 1520 35.56% 26.50%
15 2021-04-20 68.3 @ Inverness CT 1 1607 39.43% Dundee 1 1596 34.11% 26.47%
16 2020-12-29 68.1 @ Inverness CT 1 1596 37.56% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1598 35.94% 26.50%
17 2020-10-24 66.6 @ Inverness CT 1 1576 40.26% Ayr United 1 1559 33.30% 26.44%
18 2021-03-27 66.6 @ Alloa Athletic 2 1418 21.52% Ayr United 2 1554 53.84% 24.65%
19 2021-04-24 66.6 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1557 39.18% Arbroath 3 1547 34.35% 26.47%
20 2021-04-10 66.1 @ Queen of the South 1 1501 24.35% Inverness CT 1 1608 50.28% 25.37%
21 2020-11-20 65.9 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1594 28.72% Heart of Midlothian 1 1662 45.21% 26.08%
22 2021-01-16 65.9 @ Queen of the South 2 1462 32.00% Arbroath 2 1505 41.63% 26.37%
23 2021-02-03 65.9 @ Arbroath 1 1513 27.08% Inverness CT 1 1595 47.05% 25.86%
24 2021-02-20 65.9 Queen of the South 3 1476 24.63% @ Dundee 2 1565 49.94% 25.43%
25 2021-03-27 65.8 @ Dundee 3 1572 37.02% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1578 36.47% 26.51%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-03-19 40.3 Dundee 3 1558 52.68% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1432 22.41% 24.90%
2 2021-04-09 40.3 @ Heart of Midlothian 6 1693 70.24% Alloa Athletic 0 1414 11.02% 18.74%
3 2020-11-24 42.2 @ Heart of Midlothian 3 1654 61.40% Alloa Athletic 0 1466 16.16% 22.44%
4 2021-01-26 43.6 Heart of Midlothian 4 1676 59.76% @ Raith Rovers 0 1488 17.25% 23.00%
5 2020-12-19 43.8 @ Greenock Morton 2 1507 44.63% Queen of the South 0 1458 29.24% 26.14%
6 2020-12-05 44.1 Ayr United 2 1567 50.77% @ Alloa Athletic 0 1456 23.95% 25.28%
7 2020-12-04 44.2 Inverness CT 3 1591 50.08% @ Queen of the South 0 1486 24.52% 25.40%
8 2021-01-30 44.9 @ Ayr United 4 1552 53.10% Alloa Athletic 1 1437 22.09% 24.81%
9 2021-04-30 45.3 Heart of Midlothian 4 1718 60.06% @ Raith Rovers 0 1527 17.04% 22.90%
10 2020-12-12 45.6 @ Heart of Midlothian 6 1672 62.79% Queen of the South 1 1471 15.28% 21.93%
11 2020-11-21 45.7 @ Queen of the South 2 1471 36.63% Alloa Athletic 0 1480 36.86% 26.51%
12 2020-11-21 45.9 @ Inverness CT 2 1581 50.48% Raith Rovers 0 1487 24.19% 25.33%
13 2021-04-30 46.2 Dundee 2 1602 51.47% @ Queen of the South 0 1485 23.38% 25.15%
14 2020-12-05 47.2 Heart of Midlothian 2 1664 56.41% @ Greenock Morton 0 1506 19.60% 24.00%
15 2021-02-27 47.2 @ Raith Rovers 3 1479 44.46% Alloa Athletic 1 1432 29.39% 26.15%
16 2021-04-17 47.3 @ Arbroath 4 1520 35.88% Ayr United 0 1534 37.61% 26.50%
17 2020-12-29 47.5 Queen of the South 2 1437 28.24% @ Raith Rovers 0 1494 45.74% 26.02%
18 2021-03-06 47.5 Ayr United 2 1537 41.21% @ Greenock Morton 0 1498 32.40% 26.39%
19 2020-12-29 48.4 @ Dundee 3 1556 52.07% Alloa Athletic 1 1450 22.90% 25.03%
20 2021-01-16 48.6 Heart of Midlothian 3 1681 65.02% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1442 13.92% 21.06%
21 2020-12-26 48.7 Dundee 3 1547 49.51% @ Queen of the South 1 1446 24.99% 25.50%
22 2021-02-03 48.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1591 51.44% Raith Rovers 1 1490 23.41% 25.15%
23 2021-03-13 48.7 @ Heart of Midlothian 2 1699 57.20% Ayr United 0 1550 19.02% 23.78%
24 2021-04-17 48.7 Raith Rovers 2 1528 52.67% @ Alloa Athletic 1 1401 22.42% 24.90%
25 2020-11-07 49.0 @ Raith Rovers 5 1446 24.95% Greenock Morton 0 1547 49.55% 25.49%