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2021-22 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Kilmarnock

67 pts

Relegated

Queen of the South

33 pts

Dunfermline Athletic · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Arbroath

5.11 points above expected

65 points · 59.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dunfermline Athletic

5.45 points below expected

35 points · 40.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Kilmarnock Promoted 36 20 7 9 67 50 27 +23 65.50 +1.50
2 Arbroath 36 17 14 5 65 54 28 +26 59.89 +5.11
3 Inverness CT 36 16 11 9 59 53 34 +19 59.76 -0.76
4 Partick Thistle 36 14 10 12 52 46 40 +6 51.28 +0.72
5 Raith Rovers 36 12 14 10 50 44 44 0 50.38 -0.38
6 Hamilton Academical 36 10 12 14 42 38 53 -15 44.86 -2.86
7 Greenock Morton 36 9 13 14 40 36 47 -11 40.99 -0.99
8 Ayr United 36 9 12 15 39 39 52 -13 39.89 -0.89
9 Dunfermline Athletic Relegated 36 7 14 15 35 36 53 -17 40.45 -5.45
10 Queen of the South Relegated 36 8 9 19 33 36 54 -18 38.05 -5.05

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 65 59.89 +5.11
2 Kilmarnock 67 65.50 +1.50
3 Partick Thistle 52 51.28 +0.72
4 Raith Rovers 50 50.38 -0.38
5 Inverness CT 59 59.76 -0.76

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dunfermline Athletic 35 40.45 -5.45
2 Queen of the South 33 38.05 -5.05
3 Hamilton Academical 42 44.86 -2.86
4 Greenock Morton 40 40.99 -0.99
5 Ayr United 39 39.89 -0.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 5 Jul 31 – Sep 11 1 in 104
2 Arbroath 4 Aug 21 – Sep 18 1 in 37
3 Partick Thistle 3 Nov 6 – Nov 20 1 in 21
4 Dunfermline Athletic 2 Nov 13 – Nov 20 1 in 17
5 Queen of the South 2 Feb 26 – Mar 5 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Partick Thistle 4 Mar 12 – Mar 26 1 in 124
2 Queen of the South 6 Mar 8 – Apr 16 1 in 45
3 Greenock Morton 4 Aug 21 – Sep 18 1 in 41
4 Kilmarnock 3 Nov 20 – Dec 11 1 in 37
5 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Aug 7 – Sep 11 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 13 Sep 18 – Dec 11 1 in 173
2 Greenock Morton 6 Dec 29 – Feb 12 1 in 33
3 Arbroath 11 Oct 23 – Jan 2 1 in 31
4 Partick Thistle 9 Oct 2 – Dec 4 1 in 28
5 Hamilton Academical 5 Jan 29 – Feb 25 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 11 Dec 18 – Mar 4 1 in 1,220
2 Raith Rovers 11 Dec 18 – Mar 5 1 in 552
3 Dunfermline Athletic 13 Jul 31 – Nov 6 1 in 107
4 Greenock Morton 10 Aug 21 – Oct 30 1 in 28
5 Queen of the South 9 Oct 16 – Dec 11 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Kilmarnock 1688 67 +1 8 9.0 -1.0
Arbroath 1666 65 +24 10 8.6 +1.4
Inverness CT 1650 59 +25 10 8.5 +1.5
Partick Thistle 1506 52 -12 7 7.4 -0.4
Raith Rovers 1513 50 +11 7 5.5 +1.5
Hamilton Academical 1508 42 -46 4 6.6 -2.6
Greenock Morton 1483 40 -19 4 5.3 -1.3
Ayr United 1490 39 +10 6 6.1 -0.1
Dunfermline Athletic 1464 35 +0 6 6.3 -0.3
Queen of the South 1439 33 +7 7 4.8 +2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARB AU DA GM HA IC KIL PT QOTS RR
Arbroath —
1-2-1
7.29
4-0-0
7.43
2-2-0
7.79
2-2-0
6.99
1-1-2
5.78
2-1-1
4.89
2-2-0
6.26
2-2-0
8.04
1-2-1
6.55
Ayr United
1-2-1
3.65
 —
1-1-2
5.31
0-3-1
5.29
1-3-0
4.62
1-2-1
3.56
1-0-3
3.11
1-0-3
4.33
1-1-2
5.69
2-0-2
3.98
Dunfermline Athletic
0-0-4
3.53
2-1-1
5.53
 —
0-2-2
5.47
1-2-1
4.83
1-2-1
3.15
0-2-2
2.82
1-1-2
4.75
1-1-2
5.65
1-3-0
4.18
Greenock Morton
0-2-2
3.17
1-3-0
5.56
2-2-0
5.36
 —
1-1-2
5.03
1-0-3
3.53
0-2-2
2.91
2-1-1
4.10
1-1-2
6.24
1-1-2
4.57
Hamilton Academical
0-2-2
3.90
0-3-1
6.23
1-2-1
6.01
2-1-1
5.82
 —
2-1-1
3.76
0-0-4
3.42
1-1-2
4.11
4-0-0
6.02
0-2-2
5.25
Inverness CT
2-1-1
5.06
1-2-1
7.35
1-2-1
7.80
3-0-1
7.39
1-1-2
7.15
 —
3-0-1
4.49
1-2-1
5.76
2-1-1
7.89
2-2-0
6.45
Kilmarnock
1-1-2
5.95
3-0-1
7.85
2-2-0
8.18
2-2-0
8.09
4-0-0
7.52
1-0-3
6.36
 —
2-1-1
7.09
4-0-0
8.16
1-1-2
7.04
Partick Thistle
0-2-2
4.60
3-0-1
6.56
2-1-1
6.13
1-1-2
6.76
2-1-1
6.80
1-2-1
5.09
1-1-2
3.82
 —
3-1-0
6.88
1-1-2
5.65
Queen of the South
0-2-2
2.97
2-1-1
5.15
2-1-1
5.20
2-1-1
4.63
0-0-4
4.84
1-1-2
3.08
0-0-4
2.85
0-1-3
4.01
 —
1-2-1
4.05
Raith Rovers
1-2-1
4.32
2-0-2
6.92
0-3-1
6.70
2-1-1
6.29
2-2-0
5.61
0-2-2
4.40
2-1-1
3.86
2-1-1
5.19
1-2-1
6.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +16.3
Allowed 0.96 -11.5
Differential 0.97 +7.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%11.67%5.00%3.33%1.94%0.28%32.22%
111.67%12.78%6.94%1.94%0.28%0.83%34.44%
25.00%6.94%6.67%1.39%0.28%—20.28%
33.33%1.94%1.39%2.22%——8.89%
41.94%0.28%0.28%—0.56%—3.06%
5+0.28%0.83%————1.11%
Total32.22%34.44%20.28%8.89%3.06%1.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.20 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.66
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—2.78%——25.00%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%8.33%———19.44%
38.33%2.78%—2.78%——13.89%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total50.00%27.78%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.78 +0.72
SD 1.32 0.93 1.49
CV 0.88 1.19 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%8.33%5.56%5.56%—36.11%
12.78%19.44%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
25.56%8.33%11.11%———25.00%
3—5.56%————5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total13.89%47.22%25.00%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.44 -0.36
SD 1.05 1.03 1.73
CV 0.97 0.71 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%5.56%8.33%—2.78%41.67%
12.78%13.89%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—22.22%
32.78%——2.78%——5.56%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%33.33%19.44%16.67%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.47 -0.47
SD 1.07 1.28 1.68
CV 1.07 0.87 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%13.89%5.56%8.33%——38.89%
111.11%13.89%5.56%——2.78%33.33%
22.78%5.56%11.11%2.78%——22.22%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total27.78%36.11%22.22%11.11%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.31 -0.31
SD 1.10 1.26 1.72
CV 1.10 0.97 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%2.78%5.56%—36.11%
113.89%16.67%2.78%——2.78%36.11%
2—8.33%8.33%2.78%——19.44%
32.78%—————2.78%
42.78%———2.78%—5.56%
5+———————
Total25.00%36.11%22.22%5.56%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.47 -0.42
SD 1.09 1.40 1.81
CV 1.04 0.95 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%————19.44%
116.67%11.11%13.89%———41.67%
25.56%8.33%8.33%———22.22%
32.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total36.11%36.11%25.00%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 0.94 +0.53
SD 1.28 0.86 1.42
CV 0.87 0.91 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%————22.22%
111.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%——30.56%
219.44%13.89%2.78%———36.11%
32.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total41.67%44.44%11.11%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.75 +0.64
SD 1.02 0.77 1.36
CV 0.74 1.03 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%—2.78%—30.56%
122.22%5.56%5.56%8.33%2.78%—44.44%
2——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
35.56%—2.78%2.78%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total50.00%13.89%16.67%13.89%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.11 +0.17
SD 1.41 1.33 1.95
CV 1.10 1.19 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%16.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%—38.89%
18.33%8.33%16.67%——2.78%36.11%
2—5.56%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
35.56%—2.78%5.56%——13.89%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%30.56%30.56%11.11%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.50 -0.50
SD 1.04 1.21 1.52
CV 1.04 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
111.11%16.67%2.78%———30.56%
25.56%8.33%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
32.78%2.78%2.78%5.56%——13.89%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%38.89%13.89%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.17 1.39
CV 0.94 0.96 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Kilmarnock 1688 67 65.50 +1.50 64.0% 48 53 61 65 70 78 85
Arbroath 1666 65 59.89 +5.11 76.0% 40 44 55 60 65 72 79
Inverness CT 1650 59 59.76 -0.76 46.0% 40 47 55 60 65 72 80
Raith Rovers 1513 50 50.38 -0.38 53.0% 30 37 46 50 56 64 69
Hamilton Academical 1508 42 44.86 -2.86 41.0% 26 33 39 44 50 57 61
Partick Thistle 1506 52 51.28 +0.72 58.0% 36 41 45 51 56 61 71
Ayr United 1490 39 39.89 -0.89 49.0% 25 29 34 40 44 51 55
Greenock Morton 1483 40 40.99 -0.99 42.0% 21 28 37 41 46 54 58
Dunfermline Athletic 1464 35 40.45 -5.45 23.0% 25 29 36 40 45 51 59
Queen of the South 1439 33 38.05 -5.05 26.0% 20 26 33 38 43 51 54

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
No Edge
37.22%32.22%30.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
320 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.10 goals
Neutral
-2+0.07+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
58%
Kilmarnock, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.180.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.95 * Some Luck: 5.95 to 8.93 * Lucky: 8.93 to 11.91 * Wild Swing: 11.91 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.74 * Off: 1.74 to 2.32 * Way Off: 2.32 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.46 * A Surprise: 1.46 to 2.34 * Several Surprises: 2.34 to 3.21 * Many Surprises: 3.21 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.94 points
As Expected
07.4419
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.20
Pinpoint
01.453
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
76.00%
Arbroath
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
23.00%
Dunfermline Athletic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.14
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 91.03
1.63
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
68%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
81%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%63%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%13%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.66
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.33
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.17
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.45
Some Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.02
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.063
Well Within Noise
00.1290.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Kilmarnock58.00%20.00%15.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%————
Arbroath18.00%34.00%22.00%10.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%1.00%—
Inverness CT20.00%31.00%23.00%14.00%7.00%3.00%—1.00%1.00%—
Partick Thistle3.00%5.00%15.00%25.00%19.00%10.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%—
Raith Rovers1.00%8.00%15.00%18.00%18.00%17.00%10.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%
Hamilton Academical—1.00%5.00%13.00%10.00%21.00%14.00%17.00%12.00%7.00%
Greenock Morton—1.00%2.00%3.00%15.00%11.00%22.00%12.00%17.00%17.00%
Ayr United——1.00%4.00%10.00%11.00%11.00%23.00%20.00%20.00%
Dunfermline Athletic——2.00%3.00%8.00%10.00%21.00%14.00%24.00%18.00%
Queen of the South———6.00%3.00%12.00%8.00%20.00%17.00%34.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Kilmarnock 58.00% 39.00% 3.00% —
Inverness CT 20.00% 68.00% 12.00% —
Arbroath 18.00% 66.00% 16.00% —
Partick Thistle 3.00% 45.00% 52.00% —
Raith Rovers 1.00% 41.00% 54.00% 4.00%
Hamilton Academical — 19.00% 74.00% 7.00%
Greenock Morton — 6.00% 77.00% 17.00%
Dunfermline Athletic — 5.00% 77.00% 18.00%
Ayr United — 5.00% 75.00% 20.00%
Queen of the South — 6.00% 60.00% 34.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2021-07-31 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-269.5 1501 1549 35.19% 29.31% 35.50%-0.08 +0.0 1
2021-07-31 @ Greenock Morton D 2-269.5 1549 1501 35.50% 29.31% 35.19%+0.08 -0.0 1
2021-07-31 Hamilton Academical D 4-476.1 1523 1580 33.96% 29.30% 36.74%-0.11 +0.1 1
2021-07-31 @ Raith Rovers D 4-476.1 1580 1523 36.74% 29.30% 33.96%+0.11 -0.1 1
2021-07-31 Inverness CT L 0-156.0 1541 1576 37.15% 29.29% 33.56%-0.04 -10.6 0
2021-07-31 @ Arbroath W 1-056.0 1576 1541 33.56% 29.29% 37.15%+0.04 +10.6 3
2021-07-31 Queen of the South W 3-260.0 1480 1497 39.69% 29.20% 31.11%+0.02 +8.3 3
2021-07-31 @ Partick Thistle L 2-360.0 1497 1480 31.11% 29.20% 39.69%-0.02 -8.3 0
2021-08-02 Ayr United W 2-047.0 1642 1518 57.05% 26.12% 16.83%+0.46 +10.5 3
2021-08-02 @ Kilmarnock L 0-247.0 1518 1642 16.83% 26.12% 57.05%-0.46 -10.4 0
2021-08-07 Arbroath D 2-269.1 1508 1530 38.91% 29.24% 31.85%+0.00 -0.3 1
2021-08-07 @ Ayr United D 2-269.1 1530 1508 31.85% 29.24% 38.91%+0.00 +0.3 1
2021-08-07 Greenock Morton L 0-158.8 1580 1501 52.05% 27.50% 20.44%+0.32 -13.8 1
2021-08-07 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-058.8 1501 1580 20.44% 27.50% 52.05%-0.32 +13.8 4
2021-08-07 Kilmarnock L 0-151.6 1489 1653 21.42% 27.78% 50.80%-0.44 -6.9 0
2021-08-07 @ Queen of the South W 1-051.6 1653 1489 50.80% 27.78% 21.42%+0.44 +6.9 6
2021-08-07 Partick Thistle L 0-351.8 1549 1489 49.80% 27.98% 22.21%+0.26 -36.3 1
2021-08-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-051.8 1489 1549 22.21% 27.98% 49.80%-0.26 +36.3 6
2021-08-07 Raith Rovers W 1-050.8 1587 1523 50.19% 27.91% 21.90%+0.27 +7.0 6
2021-08-07 @ Inverness CT L 0-150.8 1523 1587 21.90% 27.91% 50.19%-0.27 -7.0 1
2021-08-21 Ayr United W 1-049.8 1594 1508 52.81% 27.32% 19.87%+0.34 +6.5 9
2021-08-21 @ Inverness CT L 0-149.8 1508 1594 19.87% 27.32% 52.81%-0.34 -6.5 1
2021-08-21 Kilmarnock L 0-253.0 1566 1660 29.14% 29.07% 41.79%-0.22 -16.7 1
2021-08-21 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-053.0 1660 1566 41.79% 29.07% 29.14%+0.22 +16.7 9
2021-08-21 Partick Thistle W 3-153.7 1531 1525 42.78% 28.98% 28.24%+0.09 +14.1 4
2021-08-21 @ Arbroath L 1-353.7 1525 1531 28.24% 28.98% 42.78%-0.09 -14.1 6
2021-08-21 Queen of the South L 2-365.0 1514 1482 46.28% 28.58% 25.15%+0.17 -11.2 4
2021-08-21 @ Greenock Morton W 3-265.0 1482 1514 25.15% 28.58% 46.28%-0.17 +11.2 3
2021-08-28 Arbroath L 0-349.3 1513 1545 37.56% 29.28% 33.16%-0.03 -29.2 1
2021-08-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-049.3 1545 1513 33.16% 29.28% 37.56%+0.03 +29.2 7
2021-08-28 Greenock Morton W 3-044.7 1511 1503 43.05% 28.96% 27.99%+0.10 +23.5 9
2021-08-28 @ Partick Thistle L 0-344.7 1503 1511 27.99% 28.96% 43.05%-0.10 -23.5 4
2021-08-28 Hamilton Academical L 1-258.5 1493 1549 34.10% 29.30% 36.59%-0.10 -9.4 3
2021-08-28 @ Queen of the South W 2-158.5 1549 1493 36.59% 29.30% 34.10%+0.10 +9.4 4
2021-08-28 Inverness CT L 0-163.5 1676 1600 51.70% 27.58% 20.72%+0.31 -13.7 9
2021-08-28 @ Kilmarnock W 1-063.5 1600 1676 20.72% 27.58% 51.70%-0.31 +13.7 12
2021-09-07 Raith Rovers L 0-250.1 1501 1516 40.02% 29.18% 30.80%+0.03 -21.0 1
2021-09-07 @ Ayr United W 2-050.1 1516 1501 30.80% 29.18% 40.02%-0.03 +21.0 4
2021-09-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-150.7 1480 1484 41.54% 29.09% 29.38%+0.06 +14.5 4
2021-09-11 @ Ayr United L 1-350.7 1484 1480 29.38% 29.09% 41.54%-0.06 -14.6 1
2021-09-11 Greenock Morton W 1-047.9 1663 1480 63.08% 23.86% 13.05%+0.64 +4.3 12
2021-09-11 @ Kilmarnock L 0-147.9 1480 1663 13.05% 23.86% 63.08%-0.64 -4.3 4
2021-09-11 Hamilton Academical W 4-048.5 1574 1559 44.05% 28.86% 27.10%+0.12 +30.0 10
2021-09-11 @ Arbroath L 0-448.5 1559 1574 27.10% 28.86% 44.05%-0.12 -30.0 4
2021-09-11 Partick Thistle W 3-153.9 1614 1534 52.05% 27.50% 20.45%+0.32 +10.8 15
2021-09-11 @ Inverness CT L 1-353.9 1534 1614 20.45% 27.50% 52.05%-0.32 -10.8 9
2021-09-11 Queen of the South L 0-155.9 1537 1484 48.88% 28.16% 22.96%+0.24 -13.1 4
2021-09-11 @ Raith Rovers W 1-055.9 1484 1537 22.96% 28.16% 48.88%-0.24 +13.1 6
2021-09-18 Arbroath L 0-249.2 1497 1604 27.47% 28.90% 43.63%-0.26 -16.0 6
2021-09-18 @ Queen of the South W 2-049.2 1604 1497 43.63% 28.90% 27.47%+0.26 +16.0 13
2021-09-18 Ayr United L 0-252.1 1529 1495 46.50% 28.54% 24.95%+0.18 -23.7 4
2021-09-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-052.1 1495 1529 24.95% 28.54% 46.50%-0.18 +23.7 7
2021-09-18 Inverness CT D 0-060.5 1469 1625 22.23% 27.99% 49.79%-0.41 +1.8 2
2021-09-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-060.5 1625 1469 49.79% 27.99% 22.23%+0.41 -1.8 16
2021-09-18 Kilmarnock L 0-250.3 1524 1667 23.44% 28.26% 48.30%-0.38 -14.0 9
2021-09-18 @ Partick Thistle W 2-050.3 1667 1524 48.30% 28.26% 23.44%+0.38 +14.0 15
2021-09-18 Raith Rovers L 0-151.3 1475 1524 35.22% 29.31% 35.47%-0.08 -10.2 4
2021-09-18 @ Greenock Morton W 1-051.3 1524 1475 35.47% 29.31% 35.22%+0.08 +10.2 7
2021-09-24 Kilmarnock D 0-064.9 1620 1681 33.44% 29.29% 37.27%-0.12 +0.2 14
2021-09-24 @ Arbroath D 0-064.9 1681 1620 37.27% 29.29% 33.44%+0.12 -0.2 16
2021-09-25 Greenock Morton D 0-056.5 1518 1465 48.91% 28.15% 22.93%+0.24 -1.7 8
2021-09-25 @ Ayr United D 0-056.5 1465 1518 22.93% 28.15% 48.91%-0.24 +1.7 5
2021-09-25 Hamilton Academical D 0-055.9 1471 1505 37.24% 29.29% 33.47%-0.03 -0.2 3
2021-09-25 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-055.9 1505 1471 33.47% 29.29% 37.24%+0.03 +0.2 5
2021-09-25 Queen of the South W 2-153.9 1623 1481 58.96% 25.48% 15.57%+0.52 +4.8 19
2021-09-25 @ Inverness CT L 1-253.9 1481 1623 15.57% 25.48% 58.96%-0.52 -4.8 6
2021-09-26 Partick Thistle W 3-260.8 1534 1510 45.25% 28.71% 26.04%+0.15 +7.3 10
2021-09-26 @ Raith Rovers L 2-360.8 1510 1534 26.04% 28.71% 45.25%-0.15 -7.3 9
2021-09-29 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-162.8 1541 1471 51.01% 27.74% 21.25%+0.29 -1.7 11
2021-09-29 @ Raith Rovers D 1-162.8 1471 1541 21.25% 27.74% 51.01%-0.29 +1.7 4
2021-10-02 Arbroath D 2-271.2 1467 1620 22.43% 28.04% 49.53%-0.41 +1.2 6
2021-10-02 @ Greenock Morton D 2-271.2 1620 1467 49.53% 28.04% 22.43%+0.41 -1.2 15
2021-10-02 Ayr United W 4-045.8 1502 1517 40.01% 29.18% 30.80%+0.03 +33.0 12
2021-10-02 @ Partick Thistle L 0-445.8 1517 1502 30.80% 29.18% 40.01%-0.03 -33.0 8
2021-10-02 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.3 1476 1472 42.51% 29.01% 28.49%+0.08 +8.7 9
2021-10-02 @ Queen of the South L 0-147.3 1472 1476 28.49% 29.01% 42.51%-0.08 -8.7 4
2021-10-02 Inverness CT W 2-164.8 1505 1628 25.73% 28.67% 45.61%-0.31 +11.6 8
2021-10-02 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-264.8 1628 1505 45.61% 28.67% 25.73%+0.31 -11.6 19
2021-10-02 Raith Rovers L 1-366.6 1681 1539 58.90% 25.50% 15.60%+0.51 -24.9 16
2021-10-02 @ Kilmarnock W 3-166.6 1539 1681 15.60% 25.50% 58.90%-0.51 +24.9 14
2021-10-15 Partick Thistle L 1-652.6 1517 1535 39.50% 29.21% 31.29%+0.02 -40.4 8
2021-10-15 @ Hamilton Academical W 6-152.6 1535 1517 31.29% 29.21% 39.50%-0.02 +40.4 15
2021-10-16 Arbroath W 2-163.6 1564 1619 34.32% 29.31% 36.37%-0.10 +9.8 17
2021-10-16 @ Raith Rovers L 1-263.6 1619 1564 36.37% 29.31% 34.32%+0.10 -9.8 15
2021-10-16 Greenock Morton W 2-043.9 1616 1468 59.59% 25.25% 15.16%+0.54 +9.4 22
2021-10-16 @ Inverness CT L 0-243.9 1468 1616 15.16% 25.25% 59.59%-0.54 -9.4 6
2021-10-16 Kilmarnock D 2-272.5 1464 1656 18.91% 26.99% 54.10%-0.53 +1.5 5
2021-10-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-272.5 1656 1464 54.10% 26.99% 18.91%+0.53 -1.5 17
2021-10-16 Queen of the South W 2-154.2 1484 1485 41.86% 29.06% 29.08%+0.07 +8.3 11
2021-10-16 @ Ayr United L 1-254.2 1485 1484 29.08% 29.06% 41.86%-0.07 -8.3 9
2021-10-23 Ayr United D 1-166.4 1609 1492 56.33% 26.35% 17.32%+0.44 -2.3 16
2021-10-23 @ Arbroath D 1-166.4 1492 1609 17.32% 26.35% 56.33%-0.44 +2.3 12
2021-10-23 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-059.1 1576 1465 55.59% 26.57% 17.84%+0.42 -2.5 16
2021-10-23 @ Partick Thistle D 0-059.1 1465 1576 17.84% 26.57% 55.59%-0.42 +2.5 6
2021-10-23 Greenock Morton D 0-054.5 1476 1459 44.40% 28.82% 26.79%+0.13 -1.1 10
2021-10-23 @ Queen of the South D 0-054.5 1459 1476 26.79% 28.82% 44.40%-0.13 +1.1 7
2021-10-23 Hamilton Academical W 2-153.7 1654 1477 62.56% 24.09% 13.36%+0.63 +4.1 20
2021-10-23 @ Kilmarnock L 1-253.7 1477 1654 13.36% 24.09% 62.56%-0.63 -4.1 8
2021-10-23 Inverness CT D 1-168.2 1574 1625 34.82% 29.31% 35.87%-0.09 +0.1 18
2021-10-23 @ Raith Rovers D 1-168.2 1625 1574 35.87% 29.31% 34.82%+0.09 -0.0 23
2021-10-26 Arbroath L 0-161.0 1625 1607 44.47% 28.81% 26.72%+0.13 -12.1 23
2021-10-26 @ Inverness CT W 1-061.0 1607 1625 26.72% 28.81% 44.47%-0.13 +12.1 19
2021-10-26 Kilmarnock L 0-151.9 1494 1658 21.40% 27.78% 50.82%-0.44 -6.9 12
2021-10-26 @ Ayr United W 1-051.9 1658 1494 50.82% 27.78% 21.40%+0.44 +6.9 23
2021-10-26 Partick Thistle D 0-058.1 1460 1573 26.73% 28.81% 44.47%-0.28 +1.1 8
2021-10-26 @ Greenock Morton D 0-058.1 1573 1460 44.47% 28.81% 26.73%+0.28 -1.1 17
2021-10-26 Queen of the South W 1-047.6 1473 1475 41.63% 29.08% 29.30%+0.06 +8.9 11
2021-10-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-147.6 1475 1473 29.30% 29.08% 41.63%-0.06 -8.9 10
2021-10-26 Raith Rovers D 1-163.5 1468 1574 27.55% 28.91% 43.54%-0.26 +0.9 7
2021-10-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-163.5 1574 1468 43.54% 28.91% 27.55%+0.26 -0.9 19
2021-10-30 Ayr United W 2-154.3 1573 1488 52.81% 27.32% 19.87%+0.34 +6.1 22
2021-10-30 @ Raith Rovers L 1-254.3 1488 1573 19.87% 27.32% 52.81%-0.34 -6.1 12
2021-10-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-253.2 1619 1469 59.84% 25.16% 15.00%+0.54 +7.2 22
2021-10-30 @ Arbroath L 2-453.2 1469 1619 15.00% 25.16% 59.84%-0.54 -7.2 7
2021-10-30 Hamilton Academical D 1-159.7 1461 1481 39.16% 29.23% 31.62%+0.01 -0.4 9
2021-10-30 @ Greenock Morton D 1-159.7 1481 1461 31.62% 29.23% 39.16%-0.01 +0.4 12
2021-10-30 Inverness CT D 0-062.8 1572 1613 36.26% 29.31% 34.44%-0.06 -0.1 18
2021-10-30 @ Partick Thistle D 0-062.8 1613 1572 34.44% 29.31% 36.26%+0.06 +0.1 24
2021-10-30 Queen of the South W 4-042.3 1665 1466 64.59% 23.20% 12.21%+0.69 +14.2 26
2021-10-30 @ Kilmarnock L 0-442.3 1466 1665 12.21% 23.20% 64.59%-0.69 -14.2 10
2021-11-06 Arbroath D 1-166.0 1482 1626 23.34% 28.24% 48.42%-0.38 +1.4 13
2021-11-06 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-166.0 1626 1482 48.42% 28.24% 23.34%+0.38 -1.4 23
2021-11-06 Greenock Morton L 1-353.0 1461 1460 42.14% 29.04% 28.82%+0.08 -19.0 7
2021-11-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-153.0 1460 1461 28.82% 29.04% 42.14%-0.08 +19.0 12
2021-11-06 Inverness CT D 2-271.3 1481 1613 24.65% 28.49% 46.85%-0.34 +0.9 13
2021-11-06 @ Ayr United D 2-271.3 1613 1481 46.85% 28.49% 24.65%+0.34 -0.9 25
2021-11-06 Partick Thistle L 0-163.9 1680 1572 55.28% 26.66% 18.06%+0.41 -14.5 26
2021-11-06 @ Kilmarnock W 1-063.9 1572 1680 18.06% 26.66% 55.28%-0.41 +14.5 21
2021-11-06 Raith Rovers D 1-163.2 1452 1579 25.17% 28.58% 46.25%-0.33 +1.2 11
2021-11-06 @ Queen of the South D 1-163.2 1579 1452 46.25% 28.58% 25.17%+0.33 -1.2 23
2021-11-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-265.8 1612 1442 61.81% 24.39% 13.80%+0.60 -15.0 25
2021-11-13 @ Inverness CT W 2-165.8 1442 1612 13.80% 24.39% 61.81%-0.60 +15.0 10
2021-11-13 Kilmarnock L 0-247.6 1479 1665 19.45% 27.18% 53.37%-0.51 -12.0 12
2021-11-13 @ Greenock Morton W 2-047.6 1665 1479 53.37% 27.18% 19.45%+0.51 +12.0 29
2021-11-13 Partick Thistle L 0-446.6 1482 1586 27.84% 28.94% 43.22%-0.25 -30.6 13
2021-11-13 @ Ayr United W 4-046.6 1586 1482 43.22% 28.94% 27.84%+0.25 +30.6 24
2021-11-13 Queen of the South D 1-166.2 1625 1453 61.94% 24.34% 13.72%+0.61 -2.9 24
2021-11-13 @ Arbroath D 1-166.2 1453 1625 13.72% 24.34% 61.94%-0.61 +2.9 12
2021-11-13 Raith Rovers L 0-346.7 1483 1578 28.96% 29.05% 41.99%-0.22 -24.1 13
2021-11-13 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-046.7 1578 1483 41.99% 29.05% 28.96%+0.22 +24.1 26
2021-11-19 Inverness CT L 1-255.5 1456 1597 23.68% 28.31% 48.01%-0.37 -7.1 12
2021-11-19 @ Queen of the South W 2-155.5 1597 1456 48.01% 28.31% 23.68%+0.37 +7.1 28
2021-11-20 Arbroath L 0-163.2 1677 1622 49.15% 28.11% 22.74%+0.25 -13.1 29
2021-11-20 @ Kilmarnock W 1-063.2 1622 1677 22.74% 28.11% 49.15%-0.25 +13.1 27
2021-11-20 Ayr United W 3-041.0 1457 1452 42.76% 28.98% 28.25%+0.09 +23.7 13
2021-11-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-341.0 1452 1457 28.25% 28.98% 42.76%-0.09 -23.7 13
2021-11-20 Greenock Morton W 2-153.0 1602 1467 58.24% 25.73% 16.03%+0.49 +5.0 29
2021-11-20 @ Raith Rovers L 1-253.0 1467 1602 16.03% 25.73% 58.24%-0.49 -5.0 12
2021-11-20 Hamilton Academical W 1-046.6 1617 1459 60.60% 24.87% 14.53%+0.57 +4.8 27
2021-11-20 @ Partick Thistle L 0-146.6 1459 1617 14.53% 24.87% 60.60%-0.57 -4.8 13
2021-12-03 Kilmarnock W 1-059.5 1605 1664 33.66% 29.30% 37.04%-0.11 +10.5 31
2021-12-03 @ Inverness CT L 0-159.5 1664 1605 37.04% 29.30% 33.66%+0.11 -10.6 29
2021-12-04 Ayr United D 2-264.0 1462 1428 46.53% 28.54% 24.93%+0.18 -0.9 13
2021-12-04 @ Greenock Morton D 2-264.0 1428 1462 24.93% 28.54% 46.53%-0.18 +0.9 14
2021-12-04 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.1 1454 1481 38.31% 29.26% 32.43%-0.01 +9.6 16
2021-12-04 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-148.1 1481 1454 32.43% 29.26% 38.31%+0.01 -9.6 13
2021-12-04 Partick Thistle D 0-059.9 1449 1622 20.62% 27.55% 51.83%-0.47 +2.0 13
2021-12-04 @ Queen of the South D 0-059.9 1622 1449 51.83% 27.55% 20.62%+0.47 -2.0 28
2021-12-04 Raith Rovers D 0-064.2 1635 1607 45.67% 28.66% 25.67%+0.16 -1.2 28
2021-12-04 @ Arbroath D 0-064.2 1607 1635 25.67% 28.66% 45.67%-0.16 +1.2 30
2021-12-10 Hamilton Academical D 1-158.0 1429 1464 37.14% 29.29% 33.57%-0.04 -0.2 15
2021-12-10 @ Ayr United D 1-158.0 1464 1429 33.57% 29.29% 37.14%+0.04 +0.2 17
2021-12-11 Arbroath L 0-256.9 1620 1634 40.09% 29.18% 30.73%+0.03 -21.1 28
2021-12-11 @ Partick Thistle W 2-056.9 1634 1620 30.73% 29.18% 40.09%-0.03 +21.1 31
2021-12-11 Inverness CT L 1-647.9 1461 1615 22.41% 28.03% 49.56%-0.41 -26.2 13
2021-12-11 @ Greenock Morton W 6-147.9 1615 1461 49.56% 28.03% 22.41%+0.41 +26.2 34
2021-12-11 Kilmarnock W 1-058.8 1609 1653 35.74% 29.31% 34.95%-0.07 +10.1 33
2021-12-11 @ Raith Rovers L 0-158.8 1653 1609 34.95% 29.31% 35.74%+0.07 -10.1 29
2021-12-11 Queen of the South D 3-368.5 1471 1451 44.70% 28.78% 26.52%+0.14 -0.6 14
2021-12-11 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 3-368.5 1451 1471 26.52% 28.78% 44.70%-0.14 +0.6 14
2021-12-18 Ayr United W 3-039.4 1452 1429 45.09% 28.73% 26.18%+0.14 +22.3 17
2021-12-18 @ Queen of the South L 0-339.4 1429 1452 26.18% 28.73% 45.09%-0.14 -22.3 15
2021-12-18 Greenock Morton W 2-151.2 1655 1435 66.49% 22.31% 11.19%+0.76 +3.4 34
2021-12-18 @ Arbroath L 1-251.2 1435 1655 11.19% 22.31% 66.49%-0.76 -3.4 13
2021-12-18 Hamilton Academical L 1-267.6 1641 1464 62.51% 24.11% 13.39%+0.63 -15.1 34
2021-12-18 @ Inverness CT W 2-167.6 1464 1641 13.39% 24.11% 62.51%-0.63 +15.1 20
2021-12-18 Raith Rovers W 1-056.9 1599 1619 39.24% 29.22% 31.53%+0.01 +9.4 31
2021-12-18 @ Partick Thistle L 0-156.9 1619 1599 31.53% 29.22% 39.24%-0.01 -9.4 33
2021-12-26 Arbroath L 0-345.5 1471 1658 19.31% 27.13% 53.56%-0.51 -17.3 14
2021-12-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-045.5 1658 1471 53.56% 27.13% 19.31%+0.51 +17.2 37
2021-12-26 Kilmarnock L 2-361.8 1479 1643 21.40% 27.78% 50.82%-0.44 -6.2 20
2021-12-26 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-261.8 1643 1479 50.82% 27.78% 21.40%+0.44 +6.2 32
2021-12-26 Raith Rovers W 2-053.9 1406 1609 18.04% 26.65% 55.30%-0.56 +27.3 18
2021-12-26 @ Ayr United L 0-253.9 1609 1406 55.30% 26.65% 18.04%+0.56 -27.3 33
2021-12-29 Greenock Morton D 1-166.9 1649 1432 66.31% 22.40% 11.29%+0.75 -3.4 33
2021-12-29 @ Kilmarnock D 1-166.9 1432 1649 11.29% 22.40% 66.31%-0.75 +3.4 14
2022-01-02 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-059.1 1582 1454 57.55% 25.96% 16.49%+0.47 -2.8 34
2022-01-02 @ Raith Rovers D 0-059.1 1454 1582 16.49% 25.96% 57.55%-0.47 +2.8 15
2022-01-02 Hamilton Academical L 0-346.5 1474 1473 42.17% 29.04% 28.80%+0.08 -31.8 17
2022-01-02 @ Queen of the South W 3-046.5 1473 1474 28.80% 29.04% 42.17%-0.08 +31.8 23
2022-01-02 Inverness CT D 0-065.2 1675 1626 48.42% 28.24% 23.34%+0.23 -1.6 38
2022-01-02 @ Arbroath D 0-065.2 1626 1675 23.34% 28.24% 48.42%-0.23 +1.6 35
2022-01-08 Arbroath W 1-061.2 1434 1674 15.35% 25.36% 59.29%-0.68 +15.3 21
2022-01-08 @ Ayr United L 0-161.2 1674 1434 59.29% 25.36% 15.35%+0.68 -15.3 38
2022-01-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 5-042.2 1435 1456 39.10% 29.23% 31.67%+0.01 +41.5 17
2022-01-08 @ Greenock Morton L 0-542.2 1456 1435 31.67% 29.23% 39.10%-0.01 -41.5 15
2022-01-08 Kilmarnock L 0-245.3 1442 1646 17.99% 26.63% 55.38%-0.56 -11.1 17
2022-01-08 @ Queen of the South W 2-045.3 1646 1442 55.38% 26.63% 17.99%+0.56 +11.1 36
2022-01-08 Partick Thistle D 2-271.8 1505 1608 27.95% 28.95% 43.10%-0.25 +0.6 24
2022-01-08 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-271.8 1608 1505 43.10% 28.95% 27.95%+0.25 -0.6 32
2022-01-08 Raith Rovers D 1-168.7 1628 1579 48.32% 28.26% 23.42%+0.22 -1.4 36
2022-01-08 @ Inverness CT D 1-168.7 1579 1628 23.42% 28.26% 48.32%-0.22 +1.4 35
2022-01-14 Kilmarnock D 1-169.4 1607 1657 35.03% 29.31% 35.66%-0.08 +0.0 33
2022-01-14 @ Partick Thistle D 1-169.4 1657 1607 35.66% 29.31% 35.03%+0.08 -0.0 37
2022-01-15 Arbroath L 1-263.1 1581 1659 31.16% 29.21% 39.64%-0.17 -8.8 35
2022-01-15 @ Raith Rovers W 2-163.1 1659 1581 39.64% 29.21% 31.16%+0.17 +8.8 41
2022-01-15 Greenock Morton L 0-246.2 1449 1477 38.17% 29.27% 32.57%-0.01 -20.3 21
2022-01-15 @ Ayr United W 2-046.2 1477 1449 32.57% 29.27% 38.17%+0.01 +20.3 20
2022-01-15 Hamilton Academical W 1-050.2 1415 1505 29.49% 29.09% 41.41%-0.21 +11.5 18
2022-01-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-150.2 1505 1415 41.41% 29.09% 29.49%+0.21 -11.5 24
2022-01-15 Queen of the South D 2-271.6 1626 1431 64.23% 23.36% 12.41%+0.68 -2.4 37
2022-01-15 @ Inverness CT D 2-271.6 1431 1626 12.41% 23.36% 64.23%-0.68 +2.4 18
2022-01-22 Inverness CT D 1-164.4 1426 1624 18.45% 26.82% 54.73%-0.55 +2.2 19
2022-01-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-164.4 1624 1426 54.73% 26.82% 18.45%+0.55 -2.1 38
2022-01-28 Raith Rovers D 2-270.2 1497 1572 31.56% 29.23% 39.21%-0.16 +0.3 21
2022-01-28 @ Greenock Morton D 2-270.2 1572 1497 39.21% 29.23% 31.56%+0.16 -0.3 36
2022-01-29 Ayr United D 1-159.5 1494 1429 50.38% 27.87% 21.75%+0.28 -1.6 25
2022-01-29 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-159.5 1429 1494 21.75% 27.87% 50.38%-0.28 +1.7 22
2022-01-29 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-245.4 1434 1428 42.72% 28.99% 28.29%+0.09 -22.1 18
2022-01-29 @ Queen of the South W 2-045.4 1428 1434 28.29% 28.99% 42.72%-0.09 +22.1 22
2022-01-29 Inverness CT W 1-055.8 1657 1622 46.66% 28.52% 24.82%+0.18 +7.8 40
2022-01-29 @ Kilmarnock L 0-155.8 1622 1657 24.82% 28.52% 46.66%-0.18 -7.8 38
2022-02-01 Ayr United W 1-044.6 1607 1430 62.50% 24.11% 13.39%+0.63 +4.4 36
2022-02-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-144.6 1430 1607 13.39% 24.11% 62.50%-0.63 -4.4 22
2022-02-01 Queen of the South D 3-371.8 1572 1412 60.82% 24.79% 14.39%+0.57 -1.8 37
2022-02-01 @ Raith Rovers D 3-371.8 1412 1572 14.39% 24.79% 60.82%-0.57 +1.8 19
2022-02-04 Kilmarnock W 1-057.8 1667 1665 42.32% 29.02% 28.65%+0.08 +8.7 44
2022-02-04 @ Arbroath L 0-157.8 1665 1667 28.65% 29.02% 42.32%-0.08 -8.7 40
2022-02-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-157.5 1426 1451 38.62% 29.25% 32.13%+0.00 -0.3 23
2022-02-05 @ Ayr United D 1-157.5 1451 1426 32.13% 29.25% 38.62%+0.00 +0.3 23
2022-02-05 Greenock Morton L 0-160.7 1614 1497 56.27% 26.37% 17.36%+0.44 -14.7 38
2022-02-05 @ Inverness CT W 1-060.7 1497 1614 17.36% 26.37% 56.27%-0.44 +14.7 24
2022-02-05 Hamilton Academical D 0-059.6 1570 1492 51.84% 27.55% 20.61%+0.31 -2.0 38
2022-02-05 @ Raith Rovers D 0-059.6 1492 1570 20.61% 27.55% 51.84%-0.31 +2.0 26
2022-02-09 Ayr United L 1-267.7 1656 1426 67.48% 21.83% 10.69%+0.79 -16.0 40
2022-02-09 @ Kilmarnock W 2-167.7 1426 1656 10.69% 21.83% 67.48%-0.79 +16.0 26
2022-02-09 Hamilton Academical D 2-274.9 1676 1494 62.95% 23.92% 13.13%+0.64 -2.3 45
2022-02-09 @ Arbroath D 2-274.9 1494 1676 13.13% 23.92% 62.95%-0.64 +2.3 27
2022-02-09 Partick Thistle D 3-377.8 1599 1612 40.29% 29.17% 30.54%+0.03 -0.3 39
2022-02-09 @ Inverness CT D 3-377.8 1612 1599 30.54% 29.17% 40.29%-0.03 +0.3 37
2022-02-12 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-152.1 1640 1451 63.69% 23.60% 12.71%+0.66 +3.9 43
2022-02-12 @ Kilmarnock L 1-252.1 1451 1640 12.71% 23.60% 63.69%-0.66 -3.9 23
2022-02-12 Queen of the South W 2-148.9 1512 1413 54.30% 26.94% 18.77%+0.38 +5.8 27
2022-02-12 @ Greenock Morton L 1-248.9 1413 1512 18.77% 26.94% 54.30%-0.38 -5.8 19
2022-02-19 Arbroath D 0-061.2 1408 1674 13.73% 24.34% 61.93%-0.76 +3.3 20
2022-02-19 @ Queen of the South D 0-061.2 1674 1408 61.93% 24.34% 13.73%+0.76 -3.3 46
2022-02-19 Ayr United L 1-265.0 1599 1442 60.55% 24.89% 14.56%+0.56 -14.7 39
2022-02-19 @ Inverness CT W 2-165.0 1442 1599 14.56% 24.89% 60.55%-0.56 +14.7 29
2022-02-19 Greenock Morton W 1-050.8 1497 1518 39.08% 29.23% 31.69%+0.01 +9.4 30
2022-02-19 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-150.8 1518 1497 31.69% 29.23% 39.08%-0.01 -9.4 27
2022-02-19 Raith Rovers W 3-048.2 1644 1568 51.69% 27.58% 20.72%+0.31 +18.4 46
2022-02-19 @ Kilmarnock L 0-348.2 1568 1644 20.72% 27.58% 51.69%-0.31 -18.4 38
2022-02-22 Greenock Morton L 0-160.7 1612 1508 54.85% 26.78% 18.37%+0.40 -14.4 37
2022-02-22 @ Partick Thistle W 1-060.7 1508 1612 18.37% 26.78% 54.85%-0.40 +14.4 30
2022-02-25 Inverness CT D 1-165.1 1506 1584 31.11% 29.20% 39.69%-0.17 +0.5 31
2022-02-25 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-165.1 1584 1506 39.69% 29.20% 31.11%+0.17 -0.5 40
2022-02-26 Arbroath D 0-063.3 1523 1670 23.00% 28.17% 48.83%-0.39 +1.7 31
2022-02-26 @ Greenock Morton D 0-063.3 1670 1523 48.83% 28.17% 23.00%+0.39 -1.7 47
2022-02-26 Kilmarnock D 0-061.6 1447 1662 17.07% 26.23% 56.69%-0.60 +2.6 24
2022-02-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-061.6 1662 1447 56.69% 26.23% 17.07%+0.60 -2.7 47
2022-02-26 Partick Thistle D 0-061.8 1549 1598 35.23% 29.31% 35.46%-0.08 +0.0 39
2022-02-26 @ Raith Rovers D 0-061.8 1598 1549 35.46% 29.31% 35.23%+0.08 -0.0 38
2022-02-26 Queen of the South L 0-150.3 1456 1411 47.96% 28.32% 23.72%+0.22 -12.9 29
2022-02-26 @ Ayr United W 1-050.3 1411 1456 23.72% 28.32% 47.96%-0.22 +12.9 23
2022-03-01 Partick Thistle D 1-169.9 1669 1598 51.07% 27.72% 21.21%+0.29 -1.7 48
2022-03-01 @ Arbroath D 1-169.9 1598 1669 21.21% 27.72% 51.07%-0.29 +1.7 39
2022-03-04 Inverness CT W 1-054.7 1600 1584 44.11% 28.85% 27.05%+0.12 +8.4 42
2022-03-04 @ Partick Thistle L 0-154.7 1584 1600 27.05% 28.85% 44.11%-0.12 -8.4 40
2022-03-05 Ayr United L 0-451.4 1549 1444 55.10% 26.71% 18.19%+0.40 -51.6 39
2022-03-05 @ Raith Rovers W 4-051.4 1444 1549 18.19% 26.71% 55.10%-0.40 +51.6 32
2022-03-05 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-046.2 1667 1450 66.31% 22.40% 11.29%+0.75 +3.6 51
2022-03-05 @ Arbroath L 0-146.2 1450 1667 11.29% 22.40% 66.31%-0.75 -3.6 24
2022-03-05 Greenock Morton W 3-046.7 1424 1524 28.23% 28.98% 42.79%-0.24 +32.2 26
2022-03-05 @ Queen of the South L 0-346.7 1524 1424 42.79% 28.98% 28.23%+0.24 -32.2 31
2022-03-05 Hamilton Academical W 2-046.2 1660 1507 60.13% 25.05% 14.82%+0.55 +9.2 50
2022-03-05 @ Kilmarnock L 0-246.2 1507 1660 14.82% 25.05% 60.13%-0.55 -9.2 31
2022-03-08 Queen of the South W 1-046.3 1608 1456 60.01% 25.09% 14.90%+0.55 +4.9 45
2022-03-08 @ Partick Thistle L 0-146.3 1456 1608 14.90% 25.09% 60.01%-0.55 -4.9 26
2022-03-11 Kilmarnock L 1-354.4 1495 1669 20.49% 27.52% 52.00%-0.47 -10.9 32
2022-03-11 @ Ayr United W 3-154.4 1669 1495 52.00% 27.52% 20.49%+0.47 +10.9 53
2022-03-12 Arbroath W 3-055.7 1576 1671 28.92% 29.05% 42.03%-0.23 +31.7 43
2022-03-12 @ Inverness CT L 0-355.7 1671 1576 42.03% 29.05% 28.92%+0.23 -31.7 51
2022-03-12 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-265.9 1497 1446 48.69% 28.19% 23.12%+0.23 -1.1 32
2022-03-12 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-265.9 1446 1497 23.12% 28.19% 48.69%-0.23 +1.1 25
2022-03-12 Partick Thistle W 2-163.9 1492 1613 25.92% 28.70% 45.38%-0.30 +11.6 34
2022-03-12 @ Greenock Morton L 1-263.9 1613 1492 45.38% 28.70% 25.92%+0.30 -11.6 45
2022-03-12 Raith Rovers L 0-149.5 1451 1498 35.43% 29.31% 35.26%-0.07 -10.2 26
2022-03-12 @ Queen of the South W 1-049.5 1498 1451 35.26% 29.31% 35.43%+0.07 +10.2 42
2022-03-18 Greenock Morton D 1-160.0 1447 1504 34.01% 29.30% 36.68%-0.11 +0.1 26
2022-03-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.0 1504 1447 36.68% 29.30% 34.01%+0.11 -0.1 35
2022-03-19 Ayr United W 1-048.2 1639 1484 60.28% 24.99% 14.73%+0.56 +4.8 54
2022-03-19 @ Arbroath L 0-148.2 1484 1639 14.73% 24.99% 60.28%-0.56 -4.8 32
2022-03-19 Hamilton Academical L 0-455.1 1601 1496 54.98% 26.75% 18.27%+0.40 -51.5 45
2022-03-19 @ Partick Thistle W 4-055.1 1496 1601 18.27% 26.75% 54.98%-0.40 +51.5 35
2022-03-19 Inverness CT L 2-364.0 1508 1607 28.44% 29.00% 42.56%-0.24 -7.8 42
2022-03-19 @ Raith Rovers W 3-264.0 1607 1508 42.56% 29.00% 28.44%+0.24 +7.8 46
2022-03-19 Queen of the South W 2-151.7 1680 1441 68.24% 21.45% 10.31%+0.82 +3.1 56
2022-03-19 @ Kilmarnock L 1-251.7 1441 1680 10.31% 21.45% 68.24%-0.82 -3.1 26
2022-03-22 Partick Thistle W 4-153.4 1447 1550 28.03% 28.96% 43.01%-0.25 +27.2 29
2022-03-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-453.4 1550 1447 43.01% 28.96% 28.03%+0.25 -27.2 45
2022-03-26 Ayr United D 1-161.4 1504 1479 45.24% 28.71% 26.04%+0.15 -1.1 36
2022-03-26 @ Greenock Morton D 1-161.4 1479 1504 26.04% 28.71% 45.24%-0.15 +1.1 33
2022-03-26 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-044.3 1615 1474 58.83% 25.52% 15.65%+0.51 +9.7 49
2022-03-26 @ Inverness CT L 0-244.3 1474 1615 15.65% 25.52% 58.83%-0.51 -9.7 29
2022-03-26 Partick Thistle W 2-156.1 1683 1522 60.87% 24.77% 14.36%+0.57 +4.5 59
2022-03-26 @ Kilmarnock L 1-256.1 1522 1683 14.36% 24.77% 60.87%-0.57 -4.5 45
2022-03-26 Queen of the South W 1-044.8 1548 1438 55.57% 26.58% 17.86%+0.42 +5.9 38
2022-03-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-144.8 1438 1548 17.86% 26.58% 55.57%-0.42 -5.9 26
2022-03-26 Raith Rovers D 3-377.2 1644 1500 59.14% 25.41% 15.45%+0.52 -1.6 55
2022-03-26 @ Arbroath D 3-377.2 1500 1644 15.45% 25.41% 59.14%-0.52 +1.6 43
2022-04-01 Hamilton Academical D 1-163.1 1481 1554 31.78% 29.24% 38.98%-0.16 +0.4 34
2022-04-01 @ Ayr United D 1-163.1 1554 1481 38.98% 29.24% 31.78%+0.16 -0.4 39
2022-04-01 Kilmarnock D 1-168.6 1503 1687 19.53% 27.21% 53.26%-0.51 +2.0 37
2022-04-01 @ Greenock Morton D 1-168.6 1687 1503 53.26% 27.21% 19.53%+0.51 -2.0 60
2022-04-02 Arbroath D 0-062.3 1518 1642 25.49% 28.63% 45.87%-0.32 +1.3 46
2022-04-02 @ Partick Thistle D 0-062.3 1642 1518 45.87% 28.63% 25.49%+0.32 -1.3 56
2022-04-06 Raith Rovers W 2-046.4 1465 1502 36.82% 29.30% 33.88%-0.04 +18.7 32
2022-04-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-246.4 1502 1465 33.88% 29.30% 36.82%+0.04 -18.7 43
2022-04-08 Partick Thistle L 0-147.9 1432 1519 29.90% 29.13% 40.97%-0.20 -9.0 26
2022-04-08 @ Queen of the South W 1-047.9 1519 1432 40.97% 29.13% 29.90%+0.20 +9.0 49
2022-04-09 Arbroath L 0-155.9 1553 1641 29.88% 29.12% 41.00%-0.20 -9.0 39
2022-04-09 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-055.9 1641 1553 41.00% 29.12% 29.88%+0.20 +9.0 59
2022-04-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-044.8 1685 1483 64.89% 23.06% 12.04%+0.70 +7.4 63
2022-04-09 @ Kilmarnock L 0-244.8 1483 1685 12.04% 23.06% 64.89%-0.70 -7.4 32
2022-04-09 Greenock Morton L 0-152.0 1483 1505 39.05% 29.23% 31.71%+0.01 -11.0 43
2022-04-09 @ Raith Rovers W 1-052.0 1505 1483 31.71% 29.23% 39.05%-0.01 +11.0 40
2022-04-09 Inverness CT D 2-271.7 1481 1625 23.39% 28.25% 48.36%-0.38 +1.1 35
2022-04-09 @ Ayr United D 2-271.7 1625 1481 48.36% 28.25% 23.39%+0.38 -1.1 50
2022-04-15 Kilmarnock W 2-166.5 1624 1693 32.31% 29.26% 38.43%-0.14 +10.2 53
2022-04-15 @ Inverness CT L 1-266.5 1693 1624 38.43% 29.26% 32.31%+0.14 -10.2 63
2022-04-16 Ayr United W 2-154.0 1476 1482 41.19% 29.11% 29.70%+0.05 +8.5 35
2022-04-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-254.0 1482 1476 29.70% 29.11% 41.19%-0.05 -8.5 35
2022-04-16 Hamilton Academical L 0-154.4 1516 1544 38.04% 29.27% 32.69%-0.02 -10.8 40
2022-04-16 @ Greenock Morton W 1-054.4 1544 1516 32.69% 29.27% 38.04%+0.02 +10.8 42
2022-04-16 Queen of the South W 5-143.1 1650 1423 67.19% 21.97% 10.84%+0.78 +10.4 62
2022-04-16 @ Arbroath L 1-543.1 1423 1650 10.84% 21.97% 67.19%-0.78 -10.4 26
2022-04-16 Raith Rovers L 0-155.2 1528 1472 49.25% 28.09% 22.66%+0.25 -13.1 49
2022-04-16 @ Partick Thistle W 1-055.2 1472 1528 22.66% 28.09% 49.25%-0.25 +13.1 46
2022-04-19 Inverness CT W 2-164.6 1412 1634 16.64% 26.03% 57.34%-0.62 +14.1 29
2022-04-19 @ Queen of the South L 1-264.6 1634 1412 57.34% 26.03% 16.64%+0.62 -14.1 53
2022-04-22 Arbroath W 2-163.0 1683 1660 44.98% 28.75% 26.27%+0.14 +7.7 66
2022-04-22 @ Kilmarnock L 1-263.0 1660 1683 26.27% 28.75% 44.98%-0.14 -7.7 62
2022-04-23 Ayr United D 1-158.3 1426 1473 35.41% 29.31% 35.28%-0.07 -0.0 30
2022-04-23 @ Queen of the South D 1-158.3 1473 1426 35.28% 29.31% 35.41%+0.07 +0.0 36
2022-04-23 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-048.1 1515 1484 46.07% 28.61% 25.33%+0.17 +7.9 52
2022-04-23 @ Partick Thistle L 0-148.1 1484 1515 25.33% 28.61% 46.07%-0.17 -7.9 35
2022-04-23 Inverness CT L 0-152.9 1505 1620 26.56% 28.79% 44.66%-0.29 -8.2 40
2022-04-23 @ Greenock Morton W 1-052.9 1620 1505 44.66% 28.79% 26.56%+0.29 +8.2 56
2022-04-23 Raith Rovers L 0-253.8 1555 1485 50.89% 27.76% 21.34%+0.29 -25.5 42
2022-04-23 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-053.8 1485 1555 21.34% 27.76% 50.89%-0.29 +25.5 49
2022-04-29 Greenock Morton W 3-044.0 1653 1497 60.41% 24.94% 14.65%+0.56 +13.2 65
2022-04-29 @ Arbroath L 0-344.0 1497 1653 14.65% 24.94% 60.41%-0.56 -13.2 40
2022-04-29 Hamilton Academical W 4-046.1 1628 1530 54.26% 26.95% 18.79%+0.38 +22.0 59
2022-04-29 @ Inverness CT L 0-446.1 1530 1628 18.79% 26.95% 54.26%-0.38 -22.0 42
2022-04-29 Kilmarnock D 1-168.8 1511 1690 20.00% 27.36% 52.64%-0.49 +1.9 50
2022-04-29 @ Raith Rovers D 1-168.8 1690 1511 52.64% 27.36% 20.00%+0.49 -1.9 67
2022-04-29 Partick Thistle W 3-153.9 1474 1523 35.05% 29.31% 35.64%-0.08 +16.8 39
2022-04-29 @ Ayr United L 1-353.9 1523 1474 35.64% 29.31% 35.05%+0.08 -16.7 52
2022-04-29 Queen of the South L 1-257.4 1477 1426 48.52% 28.22% 23.26%+0.23 -12.2 35
2022-04-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-157.4 1426 1477 23.26% 28.22% 48.52%-0.23 +12.2 33

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-02-09 10.69% Ayr United 1426 2 @ Kilmarnock 1656 1
2 2021-12-18 13.39% Hamilton Academical 1464 2 @ Inverness CT 1641 1
3 2021-11-13 13.80% Dunfermline Athletic 1442 2 @ Inverness CT 1612 1
4 2022-02-19 14.56% Ayr United 1442 2 @ Inverness CT 1599 1
5 2022-01-08 15.35% @ Ayr United 1434 1 Arbroath 1674 0
6 2021-10-02 15.60% Raith Rovers 1539 3 @ Kilmarnock 1681 1
7 2022-04-19 16.64% @ Queen of the South 1412 2 Inverness CT 1634 1
8 2022-02-05 17.36% Greenock Morton 1497 1 @ Inverness CT 1614 0
9 2021-12-26 18.04% @ Ayr United 1406 2 Raith Rovers 1609 0
10 2021-11-06 18.06% Partick Thistle 1572 1 @ Kilmarnock 1680 0
11 2022-03-05 18.19% Ayr United 1444 4 @ Raith Rovers 1549 0
12 2022-03-19 18.27% Hamilton Academical 1496 4 @ Partick Thistle 1601 0
13 2022-02-22 18.37% Greenock Morton 1508 1 @ Partick Thistle 1612 0
14 2021-08-07 20.44% Greenock Morton 1501 1 @ Hamilton Academical 1580 0
15 2021-08-28 20.72% Inverness CT 1600 1 @ Kilmarnock 1676 0
16 2022-04-23 21.34% Raith Rovers 1485 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1555 0
17 2021-08-07 22.21% Partick Thistle 1489 3 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1549 0
18 2022-04-16 22.66% Raith Rovers 1472 1 @ Partick Thistle 1528 0
19 2021-11-20 22.74% Arbroath 1622 1 @ Kilmarnock 1677 0
20 2021-09-11 22.96% Queen of the South 1484 1 @ Raith Rovers 1537 0
21 2022-04-29 23.26% Queen of the South 1426 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1477 1
22 2022-02-26 23.72% Queen of the South 1411 1 @ Ayr United 1456 0
23 2021-09-18 24.95% Ayr United 1495 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1529 0
24 2021-08-21 25.15% Queen of the South 1482 3 @ Greenock Morton 1514 2
25 2021-10-02 25.73% @ Hamilton Academical 1505 2 Inverness CT 1628 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-03-05 51.62 Ayr United 4 1444 18.19% @ Raith Rovers 0 1549 55.10% 26.71%
2 2022-03-19 51.53 Hamilton Academical 4 1496 18.27% @ Partick Thistle 0 1601 54.98% 26.75%
3 2022-01-08 41.54 @ Greenock Morton 5 1435 39.10% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1456 31.67% 29.23%
4 2021-10-15 40.37 Partick Thistle 6 1535 31.29% @ Hamilton Academical 1 1517 39.50% 29.21%
5 2021-08-07 36.33 Partick Thistle 3 1489 22.21% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1549 49.80% 27.98%
6 2021-10-02 33.02 @ Partick Thistle 4 1502 40.01% Ayr United 0 1517 30.80% 29.18%
7 2022-03-05 32.17 @ Queen of the South 3 1424 28.23% Greenock Morton 0 1524 42.79% 28.98%
8 2022-01-02 31.82 Hamilton Academical 3 1473 28.80% @ Queen of the South 0 1474 42.17% 29.04%
9 2022-03-12 31.73 @ Inverness CT 3 1576 28.92% Arbroath 0 1671 42.03% 29.05%
10 2021-11-13 30.60 Partick Thistle 4 1586 43.22% @ Ayr United 0 1482 27.84% 28.94%
11 2021-09-11 29.96 @ Arbroath 4 1574 44.05% Hamilton Academical 0 1559 27.10% 28.86%
12 2021-08-28 29.17 Arbroath 3 1545 33.16% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1513 37.56% 29.28%
13 2021-12-26 27.29 @ Ayr United 2 1406 18.04% Raith Rovers 0 1609 55.30% 26.65%
14 2022-03-22 27.24 @ Dunfermline Athletic 4 1447 28.03% Partick Thistle 1 1550 43.01% 28.96%
15 2021-12-11 26.21 Inverness CT 6 1615 49.56% @ Greenock Morton 1 1461 22.41% 28.03%
16 2022-04-23 25.47 Raith Rovers 2 1485 21.34% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1555 50.89% 27.76%
17 2021-10-02 24.90 Raith Rovers 3 1539 15.60% @ Kilmarnock 1 1681 58.90% 25.50%
18 2021-11-13 24.14 Raith Rovers 3 1578 41.99% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1483 28.96% 29.05%
19 2021-11-20 23.68 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1457 42.76% Ayr United 0 1452 28.25% 28.98%
20 2021-09-18 23.66 Ayr United 2 1495 24.95% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1529 46.50% 28.54%
21 2021-08-28 23.52 @ Partick Thistle 3 1511 43.05% Greenock Morton 0 1503 27.99% 28.96%
22 2021-12-18 22.32 @ Queen of the South 3 1452 45.09% Ayr United 0 1429 26.18% 28.73%
23 2022-01-29 22.12 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1428 28.29% @ Queen of the South 0 1434 42.72% 28.99%
24 2022-04-29 21.98 @ Inverness CT 4 1628 54.26% Hamilton Academical 0 1530 18.79% 26.95%
25 2021-12-11 21.08 Arbroath 2 1634 30.73% @ Partick Thistle 0 1620 40.09% 29.18%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-02-09 77.8 @ Inverness CT 3 1599 40.29% Partick Thistle 3 1612 30.54% 29.17%
2 2022-03-26 77.2 @ Arbroath 3 1644 59.14% Raith Rovers 3 1500 15.45% 25.41%
3 2021-07-31 76.1 @ Raith Rovers 4 1523 33.96% Hamilton Academical 4 1580 36.74% 29.30%
4 2022-02-09 74.9 @ Arbroath 2 1676 62.95% Hamilton Academical 2 1494 13.13% 23.92%
5 2021-10-16 72.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1464 18.91% Kilmarnock 2 1656 54.10% 26.99%
6 2022-01-08 71.8 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1505 27.95% Partick Thistle 2 1608 43.10% 28.95%
7 2022-02-01 71.8 @ Raith Rovers 3 1572 60.82% Queen of the South 3 1412 14.39% 24.79%
8 2022-04-09 71.7 @ Ayr United 2 1481 23.39% Inverness CT 2 1625 48.36% 28.25%
9 2022-01-15 71.6 @ Inverness CT 2 1626 64.23% Queen of the South 2 1431 12.41% 23.36%
10 2021-11-06 71.3 @ Ayr United 2 1481 24.65% Inverness CT 2 1613 46.85% 28.49%
11 2021-10-02 71.2 @ Greenock Morton 2 1467 22.43% Arbroath 2 1620 49.53% 28.04%
12 2022-01-28 70.2 @ Greenock Morton 2 1497 31.56% Raith Rovers 2 1572 39.21% 29.23%
13 2022-03-01 69.9 @ Arbroath 1 1669 51.07% Partick Thistle 1 1598 21.21% 27.72%
14 2021-07-31 69.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1501 35.19% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1549 35.50% 29.31%
15 2022-01-14 69.4 @ Partick Thistle 1 1607 35.03% Kilmarnock 1 1657 35.66% 29.31%
16 2021-08-07 69.1 @ Ayr United 2 1508 38.91% Arbroath 2 1530 31.85% 29.24%
17 2022-04-29 68.8 @ Raith Rovers 1 1511 20.00% Kilmarnock 1 1690 52.64% 27.36%
18 2022-01-08 68.7 @ Inverness CT 1 1628 48.32% Raith Rovers 1 1579 23.42% 28.26%
19 2022-04-01 68.6 @ Greenock Morton 1 1503 19.53% Kilmarnock 1 1687 53.26% 27.21%
20 2021-12-11 68.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1471 44.70% Queen of the South 3 1451 26.52% 28.78%
21 2021-10-23 68.2 @ Raith Rovers 1 1574 34.82% Inverness CT 1 1625 35.87% 29.31%
22 2022-02-09 67.7 Ayr United 2 1426 10.69% @ Kilmarnock 1 1656 67.48% 21.83%
23 2021-12-18 67.6 Hamilton Academical 2 1464 13.39% @ Inverness CT 1 1641 62.51% 24.11%
24 2021-12-29 66.9 @ Kilmarnock 1 1649 66.31% Greenock Morton 1 1432 11.29% 22.40%
25 2021-10-02 66.6 Raith Rovers 3 1539 15.60% @ Kilmarnock 1 1681 58.90% 25.50%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2021-12-18 39.4 @ Queen of the South 3 1452 45.09% Ayr United 0 1429 26.18% 28.73%
2 2021-11-20 41.0 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1457 42.76% Ayr United 0 1452 28.25% 28.98%
3 2022-01-08 42.2 @ Greenock Morton 5 1435 39.10% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1456 31.67% 29.23%
4 2021-10-30 42.3 @ Kilmarnock 4 1665 64.59% Queen of the South 0 1466 12.21% 23.20%
5 2022-04-16 43.1 @ Arbroath 5 1650 67.19% Queen of the South 1 1423 10.84% 21.97%
6 2021-10-16 43.9 @ Inverness CT 2 1616 59.59% Greenock Morton 0 1468 15.16% 25.25%
7 2022-04-29 44.0 @ Arbroath 3 1653 60.41% Greenock Morton 0 1497 14.65% 24.94%
8 2022-03-26 44.3 @ Inverness CT 2 1615 58.83% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1474 15.65% 25.52%
9 2022-02-01 44.6 @ Partick Thistle 1 1607 62.50% Ayr United 0 1430 13.39% 24.11%
10 2021-08-28 44.7 @ Partick Thistle 3 1511 43.05% Greenock Morton 0 1503 27.99% 28.96%
11 2022-03-26 44.8 @ Hamilton Academical 1 1548 55.57% Queen of the South 0 1438 17.86% 26.58%
12 2022-04-09 44.8 @ Kilmarnock 2 1685 64.89% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1483 12.04% 23.06%
13 2022-01-08 45.3 Kilmarnock 2 1646 55.38% @ Queen of the South 0 1442 17.99% 26.63%
14 2022-01-29 45.4 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1428 28.29% @ Queen of the South 0 1434 42.72% 28.99%
15 2021-12-26 45.5 Arbroath 3 1658 53.56% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1471 19.31% 27.13%
16 2021-10-02 45.8 @ Partick Thistle 4 1502 40.01% Ayr United 0 1517 30.80% 29.18%
17 2022-04-29 46.1 @ Inverness CT 4 1628 54.26% Hamilton Academical 0 1530 18.79% 26.95%
18 2022-01-15 46.2 Greenock Morton 2 1477 32.57% @ Ayr United 0 1449 38.17% 29.27%
19 2022-03-05 46.2 @ Arbroath 1 1667 66.31% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1450 11.29% 22.40%
20 2022-03-05 46.2 @ Kilmarnock 2 1660 60.13% Hamilton Academical 0 1507 14.82% 25.05%
21 2022-03-08 46.3 @ Partick Thistle 1 1608 60.01% Queen of the South 0 1456 14.90% 25.09%
22 2022-04-06 46.4 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1465 36.82% Raith Rovers 0 1502 33.88% 29.30%
23 2022-01-02 46.5 Hamilton Academical 3 1473 28.80% @ Queen of the South 0 1474 42.17% 29.04%
24 2021-11-13 46.6 Partick Thistle 4 1586 43.22% @ Ayr United 0 1482 27.84% 28.94%
25 2021-11-20 46.6 @ Partick Thistle 1 1617 60.60% Hamilton Academical 0 1459 14.53% 24.87%