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2022-23 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Dundee

63 pts

Relegated

Cove Rangers

31 pts

Hamilton Academical · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Greenock Morton

8.69 points above expected

57 points · 48.31 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arbroath

20.36 points below expected

34 points · 54.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee Promoted 36 17 12 7 63 66 40 +26 57.24 +5.76
2 Ayr United 36 16 10 10 58 61 43 +18 52.43 +5.57
3 Queen's Park 36 17 7 12 58 63 52 +11 54.30 +3.70
4 Partick Thistle 36 16 9 11 57 65 45 +20 52.48 +4.52
5 Greenock Morton 36 15 12 9 57 53 43 +10 48.31 +8.69
6 Inverness CT 36 15 10 11 55 52 47 +5 58.71 -3.71
7 Raith Rovers 36 11 10 15 43 46 49 -3 48.22 -5.22
8 Arbroath 36 6 16 14 34 29 47 -18 54.36 -20.36
9 Hamilton Academical Relegated 36 7 10 19 31 31 63 -32 39.00 -8.00
10 Cove Rangers Relegated 36 7 10 19 31 38 75 -37 42.18 -11.18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Greenock Morton 57 48.31 +8.69
2 Dundee 63 57.24 +5.76
3 Ayr United 58 52.43 +5.57
4 Partick Thistle 57 52.48 +4.52
5 Queen's Park 58 54.30 +3.70

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 34 54.36 -20.36
2 Cove Rangers 31 42.18 -11.18
3 Hamilton Academical 31 39.00 -8.00
4 Raith Rovers 43 48.22 -5.22
5 Inverness CT 55 58.71 -3.71

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queen's Park 6 Nov 12 – Jan 7 1 in 106
2 Dundee 5 Nov 5 – Dec 23 1 in 76
3 Inverness CT 6 Mar 24 – Apr 18 1 in 61
4 Ayr United 3 Aug 20 – Sep 3 1 in 24
5 Partick Thistle 3 Aug 19 – Sep 3 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arbroath 4 Aug 12 – Sep 3 1 in 135
2 Partick Thistle 5 Oct 22 – Nov 12 1 in 75
3 Hamilton Academical 7 Nov 5 – Jan 7 1 in 53
4 Cove Rangers 6 Feb 25 – Apr 1 1 in 26
5 Queen's Park 3 Mar 24 – Apr 7 1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 10 Oct 4 – Dec 23 1 in 428
2 Raith Rovers 9 Dec 17 – Feb 24 1 in 170
3 Hamilton Academical 5 Jan 14 – Feb 21 1 in 64
4 Partick Thistle 6 Feb 18 – Mar 18 1 in 51
5 Arbroath 7 Feb 18 – Apr 8 1 in 49

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Inverness CT 8 Oct 18 – Dec 23 1 in 424
2 Arbroath 7 Oct 29 – Dec 23 1 in 60
3 Raith Rovers 7 Apr 4 – May 5 1 in 27
4 Cove Rangers 10 Feb 12 – Apr 15 1 in 21
5 Greenock Morton 6 Dec 3 – Feb 4 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundee 1573 63 +12 9 8.9 +0.1
Ayr United 1521 58 +11 9 7.5 +1.5
Queen's Park 1502 58 -29 4 7.2 -3.2
Greenock Morton 1494 57 +22 13 7.9 +5.1
Partick Thistle 1539 57 +24 9 8.7 +0.3
Inverness CT 1529 55 +8 10 8.9 +1.1
Raith Rovers 1448 43 -14 2 5.7 -3.7
Arbroath 1453 34 -25 2 7.1 -5.1
Cove Rangers 1346 31 +4 5 4.3 +0.7
Hamilton Academical 1367 31 -11 2 4.3 -2.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARB AU CR DUN GM HA IC PT QP RR
Arbroath —
1-2-1
5.87
0-2-2
6.68
1-2-1
5.37
2-2-0
5.76
1-2-1
6.97
0-2-2
5.22
0-1-3
5.79
1-1-2
5.79
0-2-2
6.04
Ayr United
1-2-1
5.40
 —
3-1-0
6.36
1-0-3
5.26
2-2-0
5.95
3-1-0
6.95
1-1-2
5.15
1-1-2
5.98
2-1-1
5.44
2-1-1
6.27
Cove Rangers
2-2-0
4.60
0-1-3
4.93
 —
1-1-2
3.94
0-0-4
4.90
1-3-0
6.06
0-0-4
4.10
1-2-1
4.78
1-0-3
4.15
1-1-2
5.50
Dundee
1-2-1
5.90
3-0-1
6.01
2-1-1
7.38
 —
0-3-1
6.64
3-1-0
7.49
1-2-1
5.72
1-1-2
6.40
3-1-0
5.91
3-1-0
6.49
Greenock Morton
0-2-2
5.51
0-2-2
5.32
4-0-0
6.37
1-3-0
4.64
 —
2-1-1
6.46
2-1-1
4.57
1-1-2
5.58
3-1-0
4.83
2-1-1
5.86
Hamilton Academical
1-2-1
4.32
0-1-3
4.33
0-3-1
5.22
0-1-3
3.82
1-1-2
4.82
 —
3-0-1
3.58
1-2-1
4.16
0-0-4
4.27
1-0-3
4.71
Inverness CT
2-2-0
6.05
2-1-1
6.12
4-0-0
7.18
1-2-1
5.55
1-1-2
6.72
1-0-3
7.73
 —
2-0-2
6.51
0-2-2
5.97
2-2-0
6.74
Partick Thistle
3-1-0
5.49
2-1-1
5.29
1-2-1
6.50
2-1-1
4.88
2-1-1
5.69
1-2-1
7.12
2-0-2
4.76
 —
1-0-3
5.62
2-1-1
6.12
Queen's Park
2-1-1
5.49
1-1-2
5.83
3-0-1
7.15
0-1-3
5.36
0-1-3
6.45
4-0-0
7.02
2-2-0
5.30
3-0-1
5.65
 —
2-1-1
6.30
Raith Rovers
2-2-0
5.23
1-1-2
5.00
2-1-1
5.77
0-1-3
4.78
1-1-2
5.41
3-0-1
6.58
0-2-2
4.54
1-1-2
5.15
1-1-2
4.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +8.6
Allowed 0.58 -9.0
Differential 0.94 +5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%7.78%6.39%2.50%1.11%1.67%27.22%
17.78%12.78%7.50%1.94%1.39%1.11%32.50%
26.39%7.50%7.78%2.50%0.83%0.28%25.28%
32.50%1.94%2.50%0.56%—0.28%7.78%
41.11%1.39%0.83%—0.56%—3.89%
5+1.67%1.11%0.28%0.28%——3.33%
Total27.22%32.50%25.28%7.78%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.30 1.30 1.93
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%13.89%2.78%——41.67%
15.56%25.00%5.56%—5.56%—41.67%
22.78%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
3———————
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%38.89%25.00%2.78%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.81 1.31 -0.50
SD 0.89 1.14 1.30
CV 1.10 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%8.33%———22.22%
15.56%8.33%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
28.33%8.33%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
32.78%5.56%5.56%———13.89%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total30.56%27.78%33.33%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.19 +0.50
SD 1.35 0.98 1.72
CV 0.80 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%8.33%2.78%8.33%—8.33%30.56%
15.56%11.11%16.67%—2.78%5.56%41.67%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
3—2.78%————2.78%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%22.22%30.56%8.33%5.56%13.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 2.08 -1.03
SD 0.95 1.79 2.20
CV 0.90 0.86 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%2.78%————16.67%
18.33%13.89%—8.33%——30.56%
211.11%2.78%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
38.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+2.78%——2.78%——5.56%
Total44.44%25.00%8.33%19.44%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 1.11 +0.72
SD 1.50 1.26 1.80
CV 0.82 1.13 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%————11.11%
113.89%13.89%16.67%2.78%—2.78%50.00%
22.78%16.67%8.33%———27.78%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total30.56%33.33%27.78%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.19 +0.28
SD 1.06 1.12 1.52
CV 0.72 0.93 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%13.89%16.67%—2.78%5.56%44.44%
111.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%—33.33%
2—5.56%8.33%2.78%——16.67%
32.78%—————2.78%
4————2.78%—2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%30.56%30.56%5.56%8.33%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 1.75 -0.89
SD 0.99 1.56 1.86
CV 1.15 0.89 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%—2.78%2.78%—19.44%
111.11%13.89%11.11%—2.78%2.78%41.67%
28.33%11.11%8.33%———27.78%
3——2.78%———2.78%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total25.00%41.67%22.22%2.78%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.31 +0.14
SD 1.27 1.21 1.85
CV 0.88 0.93 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
12.78%8.33%2.78%———13.89%
25.56%8.33%8.33%5.56%2.78%—30.56%
35.56%2.78%5.56%———13.89%
42.78%2.78%————5.56%
5+2.78%5.56%————8.33%
Total27.78%38.89%19.44%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.81 1.25 +0.56
SD 1.55 1.13 2.05
CV 0.86 0.90 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%2.78%5.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%25.00%
18.33%8.33%5.56%———22.22%
28.33%11.11%5.56%5.56%——30.56%
3——2.78%——2.78%5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total30.56%27.78%22.22%11.11%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.44 +0.31
SD 1.56 1.40 2.32
CV 0.89 0.97 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%13.89%2.78%——33.33%
15.56%13.89%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%11.11%——2.78%25.00%
35.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total19.44%38.89%33.33%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.36 -0.08
SD 1.30 1.05 1.76
CV 1.02 0.77 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee 1573 63 57.24 +5.76 80.0% 40 45 52 57 62 69 90
Partick Thistle 1539 57 52.48 +4.52 77.0% 36 39 47 52 57 66 77
Inverness CT 1529 55 58.71 -3.71 31.0% 39 45 52 60 64 73 75
Ayr United 1521 58 52.43 +5.57 81.0% 31 39 48 53 57 64 70
Queen's Park 1502 58 54.30 +3.70 66.0% 37 43 48 55 60 66 77
Greenock Morton 1494 57 48.31 +8.69 90.0% 33 36 44 47 52 61 67
Arbroath 1453 34 54.36 -20.36 0.0% 35 42 49 54 58 69 74
Raith Rovers 1448 43 48.22 -5.22 26.0% 28 33 43 48 53 61 67
Hamilton Academical 1367 31 39.00 -8.00 15.0% 25 27 33 38 44 52 58
Cove Rangers 1346 31 42.18 -11.18 8.0% 25 30 37 41 47 55 59

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+9.44%
No Edge
40.00%29.44%30.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 32.91 Elo pts.
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.37 goals
Neutral
-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.5
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
19%
Dundee, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.21 * Some Luck: 6.21 to 9.32 * Lucky: 9.32 to 12.43 * Wild Swing: 12.43 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.57 * Close: 1.57 to 2.36 * Off: 2.36 to 3.14 * Way Off: 3.14 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.22 * A Surprise: 1.22 to 1.95 * Several Surprises: 1.95 to 2.68 * Many Surprises: 2.68 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.82 points
Some Luck
07.7719
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.20
Close
01.974
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
90.00%
Greenock Morton
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Arbroath
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 73.87
1.64
Moderate Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.68
Coin-Flip
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.28
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.36
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.01
Miscalibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.64
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.095
Well Within Noise
00.1180.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee19.00%18.00%18.00%13.00%16.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%3.00%—
Ayr United9.00%11.00%19.00%10.00%17.00%7.00%7.00%10.00%7.00%3.00%
Queen's Park12.00%15.00%14.00%19.00%6.00%8.00%13.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%
Partick Thistle12.00%11.00%10.00%14.00%10.00%18.00%8.00%10.00%4.00%3.00%
Greenock Morton2.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%8.00%18.00%15.00%22.00%12.00%5.00%
Inverness CT30.00%19.00%18.00%5.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%—
Raith Rovers1.00%8.00%6.00%9.00%12.00%15.00%10.00%15.00%15.00%9.00%
Arbroath14.00%9.00%9.00%17.00%15.00%11.00%12.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%
Hamilton Academical—1.00%—3.00%3.00%3.00%8.00%8.00%27.00%47.00%
Cove Rangers1.00%2.00%—4.00%6.00%8.00%15.00%10.00%23.00%31.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Inverness CT 30.00% 42.00% 28.00% —
Dundee 19.00% 49.00% 32.00% —
Arbroath 14.00% 35.00% 50.00% 1.00%
Queen's Park 12.00% 48.00% 39.00% 1.00%
Partick Thistle 12.00% 35.00% 50.00% 3.00%
Ayr United 9.00% 40.00% 48.00% 3.00%
Greenock Morton 2.00% 18.00% 75.00% 5.00%
Raith Rovers 1.00% 23.00% 67.00% 9.00%
Cove Rangers 1.00% 6.00% 62.00% 31.00%
Hamilton Academical — 4.00% 49.00% 47.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2022-07-30 Arbroath D 0-059.8 1440 1562 34.38% 18.51% 47.11%-0.52 +0.5 1
2022-07-30 @ Ayr United D 0-059.8 1562 1440 47.11% 18.51% 34.38%+0.52 -0.5 1
2022-07-30 Greenock Morton D 1-160.2 1452 1435 53.35% 18.19% 28.46%+0.29 -0.8 1
2022-07-30 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-160.2 1435 1452 28.46% 18.19% 53.35%-0.29 +0.8 1
2022-07-30 Partick Thistle L 2-362.5 1489 1451 55.96% 17.98% 26.06%+0.41 -7.3 0
2022-07-30 @ Dundee W 3-262.5 1451 1489 26.06% 17.98% 55.96%-0.41 +7.3 3
2022-07-30 Queen's Park D 1-165.0 1551 1464 61.57% 17.35% 21.08%+0.70 -1.4 1
2022-07-30 @ Inverness CT D 1-165.0 1464 1551 21.08% 17.35% 61.57%-0.70 +1.4 1
2022-07-30 Raith Rovers W 2-040.6 1473 1456 53.38% 18.19% 28.43%+0.29 +8.6 3
2022-07-30 @ Cove Rangers L 0-240.6 1456 1473 28.43% 18.19% 53.38%-0.29 -8.6 0
2022-08-05 Ayr United L 2-360.9 1465 1440 54.34% 18.11% 27.54%+0.33 -7.1 1
2022-08-05 @ Queen's Park W 3-260.9 1440 1465 27.54% 18.11% 54.34%-0.33 +7.1 4
2022-08-06 Cove Rangers W 1-045.7 1436 1481 45.10% 18.56% 36.34%-0.07 +5.6 4
2022-08-06 @ Greenock Morton L 0-145.7 1481 1436 36.34% 18.56% 45.10%+0.07 -5.7 3
2022-08-06 Dundee L 0-149.1 1447 1482 46.55% 18.52% 34.93%-0.01 -6.9 0
2022-08-06 @ Raith Rovers W 1-049.1 1482 1447 34.93% 18.52% 46.55%+0.01 +6.9 3
2022-08-06 Hamilton Academical D 1-160.9 1458 1451 52.15% 18.27% 29.58%+0.23 -0.8 4
2022-08-06 @ Partick Thistle D 1-160.9 1451 1458 29.58% 18.27% 52.15%-0.23 +0.8 2
2022-08-06 Inverness CT D 0-063.7 1561 1549 52.74% 18.23% 29.03%+0.26 -0.9 2
2022-08-06 @ Arbroath D 0-063.7 1549 1561 29.03% 18.23% 52.74%-0.26 +0.9 2
2022-08-12 Arbroath W 4-258.2 1489 1560 41.34% 18.61% 40.06%-0.23 +8.9 6
2022-08-12 @ Dundee L 2-458.2 1560 1489 40.06% 18.61% 41.34%+0.23 -8.9 2
2022-08-13 Cove Rangers W 4-145.4 1550 1476 60.21% 17.53% 22.26%+0.63 +8.5 5
2022-08-13 @ Inverness CT L 1-445.4 1476 1550 22.26% 17.53% 60.21%-0.63 -8.5 3
2022-08-13 Greenock Morton W 2-148.1 1440 1442 50.99% 18.34% 30.68%+0.18 +4.6 3
2022-08-13 @ Raith Rovers L 1-248.1 1442 1440 30.68% 18.34% 50.99%-0.18 -4.6 4
2022-08-13 Hamilton Academical D 2-266.1 1448 1452 50.64% 18.35% 31.01%+0.17 -0.5 5
2022-08-13 @ Ayr United D 2-266.1 1452 1448 31.01% 18.35% 50.64%-0.17 +0.5 3
2022-08-13 Partick Thistle W 3-254.1 1458 1458 51.25% 18.32% 30.43%+0.19 +4.3 4
2022-08-13 @ Queen's Park L 2-354.1 1458 1458 30.43% 18.32% 51.25%-0.19 -4.4 4
2022-08-19 Inverness CT W 4-152.0 1453 1559 36.59% 18.57% 44.85%-0.42 +15.5 7
2022-08-19 @ Partick Thistle L 1-452.0 1559 1453 44.85% 18.57% 36.59%+0.42 -15.5 5
2022-08-20 Ayr United L 1-256.0 1467 1447 53.77% 18.16% 28.07%+0.31 -7.4 3
2022-08-20 @ Cove Rangers W 2-156.0 1447 1467 28.07% 18.16% 53.77%-0.31 +7.4 8
2022-08-20 Dundee D 0-057.3 1437 1498 42.94% 18.60% 38.46%-0.16 -0.2 5
2022-08-20 @ Greenock Morton D 0-057.3 1498 1437 38.46% 18.60% 42.94%+0.16 +0.2 7
2022-08-20 Queen's Park L 1-261.8 1551 1462 61.78% 17.32% 20.89%+0.71 -8.4 2
2022-08-20 @ Arbroath W 2-161.8 1462 1551 20.89% 17.32% 61.78%-0.71 +8.4 7
2022-08-20 Raith Rovers L 0-246.7 1452 1445 52.20% 18.26% 29.54%+0.24 -14.5 3
2022-08-20 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-046.7 1445 1452 29.54% 18.26% 52.20%-0.24 +14.5 6
2022-08-26 Dundee W 3-149.4 1455 1498 45.36% 18.55% 36.08%-0.06 +9.2 11
2022-08-26 @ Ayr United L 1-349.4 1498 1455 36.08% 18.55% 45.36%+0.06 -9.2 7
2022-08-27 Arbroath W 1-050.5 1438 1543 36.63% 18.57% 44.80%-0.42 +6.7 6
2022-08-27 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-150.5 1543 1438 44.80% 18.57% 36.63%+0.42 -6.7 2
2022-08-27 Cove Rangers W 2-149.2 1471 1460 52.63% 18.24% 29.13%+0.26 +4.4 10
2022-08-27 @ Queen's Park L 1-249.2 1460 1471 29.13% 18.24% 52.63%-0.26 -4.4 3
2022-08-27 Greenock Morton L 0-155.7 1543 1437 63.58% 17.06% 19.37%+0.81 -9.2 5
2022-08-27 @ Inverness CT W 1-055.7 1437 1543 19.37% 17.06% 63.58%-0.81 +9.2 8
2022-08-27 Raith Rovers W 2-149.1 1469 1459 52.46% 18.25% 29.29%+0.25 +4.4 10
2022-08-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-249.1 1459 1469 29.29% 18.25% 52.46%-0.25 -4.4 6
2022-09-03 Ayr United L 1-254.5 1446 1464 48.89% 18.44% 32.67%+0.09 -6.8 8
2022-09-03 @ Greenock Morton W 2-154.5 1464 1446 32.67% 18.44% 48.89%-0.09 +6.8 14
2022-09-03 Hamilton Academical D 2-266.1 1455 1445 52.58% 18.24% 29.18%+0.25 -0.6 4
2022-09-03 @ Cove Rangers D 2-266.1 1445 1455 29.18% 18.24% 52.58%-0.25 +0.6 7
2022-09-03 Inverness CT L 0-246.5 1455 1534 40.25% 18.61% 41.14%-0.27 -11.6 6
2022-09-03 @ Raith Rovers W 2-046.5 1534 1455 41.14% 18.61% 40.25%+0.27 +11.6 8
2022-09-03 Partick Thistle L 0-252.6 1536 1473 58.90% 17.68% 23.41%+0.56 -16.1 2
2022-09-03 @ Arbroath W 2-052.6 1473 1536 23.41% 17.68% 58.90%-0.56 +16.2 13
2022-09-03 Queen's Park W 3-040.3 1489 1475 52.93% 18.22% 28.85%+0.27 +12.7 10
2022-09-03 @ Dundee L 0-340.3 1475 1489 28.85% 18.22% 52.93%-0.27 -12.7 10
2022-09-17 Arbroath L 1-253.6 1439 1520 40.03% 18.61% 41.36%-0.28 -5.8 8
2022-09-17 @ Greenock Morton W 2-153.6 1520 1439 41.36% 18.61% 40.03%+0.28 +5.8 5
2022-09-17 Ayr United W 3-255.1 1443 1471 47.56% 18.49% 33.95%+0.03 +4.8 9
2022-09-17 @ Raith Rovers L 2-355.1 1471 1443 33.95% 18.49% 47.56%-0.03 -4.8 14
2022-09-17 Cove Rangers D 2-267.7 1489 1455 55.58% 18.01% 26.41%+0.39 -0.7 14
2022-09-17 @ Partick Thistle D 2-267.7 1455 1489 26.41% 18.01% 55.58%-0.39 +0.7 5
2022-09-17 Inverness CT L 2-363.4 1501 1546 45.22% 18.56% 36.22%-0.07 -6.0 10
2022-09-17 @ Dundee W 3-263.4 1546 1501 36.22% 18.56% 45.22%+0.07 +6.0 11
2022-09-17 Queen's Park L 0-246.2 1445 1463 48.92% 18.44% 32.64%+0.09 -13.7 7
2022-09-17 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-046.2 1463 1445 32.64% 18.44% 48.92%-0.09 +13.7 13
2022-10-01 Arbroath W 2-046.1 1455 1526 41.52% 18.61% 39.88%-0.22 +11.5 8
2022-10-01 @ Cove Rangers L 0-246.1 1526 1455 39.88% 18.61% 41.52%+0.22 -11.5 5
2022-10-01 Dundee L 0-244.9 1432 1495 42.49% 18.60% 38.91%-0.18 -12.1 7
2022-10-01 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-044.9 1495 1432 38.91% 18.60% 42.49%+0.18 +12.1 13
2022-10-01 Greenock Morton W 5-140.8 1489 1434 58.00% 17.78% 24.22%+0.51 +11.8 17
2022-10-01 @ Partick Thistle L 1-540.8 1434 1489 24.22% 17.78% 58.00%-0.51 -11.8 8
2022-10-01 Inverness CT L 0-150.2 1466 1552 39.30% 18.60% 42.10%-0.31 -6.0 14
2022-10-01 @ Ayr United W 1-050.2 1552 1466 42.10% 18.60% 39.30%+0.31 +6.0 14
2022-10-01 Raith Rovers W 1-043.0 1476 1448 54.78% 18.08% 27.14%+0.36 +4.4 16
2022-10-01 @ Queen's Park L 0-143.0 1448 1476 27.14% 18.08% 54.78%-0.36 -4.4 9
2022-10-04 Dundee W 3-150.1 1467 1507 45.76% 18.54% 35.69%-0.04 +9.1 11
2022-10-04 @ Cove Rangers L 1-350.1 1507 1467 35.69% 18.54% 45.76%+0.04 -9.1 13
2022-10-04 Greenock Morton L 1-256.9 1481 1422 58.42% 17.74% 23.84%+0.53 -8.0 16
2022-10-04 @ Queen's Park W 2-156.9 1422 1481 23.84% 17.74% 58.42%-0.53 +8.0 11
2022-10-07 Partick Thistle W 1-046.9 1558 1501 58.24% 17.76% 24.01%+0.52 +3.9 17
2022-10-07 @ Inverness CT L 0-146.9 1501 1558 24.01% 17.76% 58.24%-0.52 -3.9 17
2022-10-08 Cove Rangers W 3-040.5 1444 1476 46.85% 18.51% 34.64%+0.00 +14.9 12
2022-10-08 @ Raith Rovers L 0-340.5 1476 1444 34.64% 18.51% 46.85%+0.00 -14.9 11
2022-10-08 Dundee D 1-164.7 1514 1498 53.28% 18.19% 28.53%+0.29 -0.8 6
2022-10-08 @ Arbroath D 1-164.7 1498 1514 28.53% 18.19% 53.28%-0.29 +0.8 14
2022-10-08 Hamilton Academical W 5-036.6 1430 1419 52.54% 18.24% 29.22%+0.25 +20.7 14
2022-10-08 @ Greenock Morton L 0-536.6 1419 1430 29.22% 18.24% 52.54%-0.25 -20.7 7
2022-10-08 Queen's Park W 5-040.2 1460 1473 49.51% 18.41% 32.07%+0.12 +22.4 17
2022-10-08 @ Ayr United L 0-540.2 1473 1460 32.07% 18.41% 49.51%-0.12 -22.4 16
2022-10-14 Arbroath D 1-162.7 1450 1514 42.52% 18.60% 38.88%-0.18 -0.1 17
2022-10-14 @ Queen's Park D 1-162.7 1514 1450 38.88% 18.60% 42.52%+0.18 +0.1 7
2022-10-15 Ayr United W 2-150.8 1499 1482 53.38% 18.19% 28.43%+0.29 +4.3 17
2022-10-15 @ Dundee L 1-250.8 1482 1499 28.43% 18.19% 53.38%-0.29 -4.3 17
2022-10-15 Inverness CT L 0-149.8 1461 1562 37.27% 18.58% 44.15%-0.39 -5.8 11
2022-10-15 @ Cove Rangers W 1-049.8 1562 1461 44.15% 18.58% 37.27%+0.39 +5.8 20
2022-10-15 Partick Thistle L 1-250.6 1399 1497 37.64% 18.58% 43.78%-0.38 -5.5 7
2022-10-15 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-150.6 1497 1399 43.78% 18.58% 37.64%+0.38 +5.5 20
2022-10-15 Raith Rovers W 1-043.9 1450 1458 50.16% 18.38% 31.46%+0.15 +5.0 17
2022-10-15 @ Greenock Morton L 0-143.9 1458 1450 31.46% 18.38% 50.16%-0.15 -5.0 12
2022-10-18 Hamilton Academical L 0-156.5 1567 1393 69.93% 15.83% 14.24%+1.20 -10.0 20
2022-10-18 @ Inverness CT W 1-056.5 1393 1567 14.24% 15.83% 69.93%-1.20 +10.0 10
2022-10-19 Raith Rovers L 0-153.9 1514 1453 58.60% 17.72% 23.68%+0.54 -8.5 7
2022-10-19 @ Arbroath W 1-053.9 1453 1514 23.68% 17.72% 58.60%-0.54 +8.5 15
2022-10-22 Cove Rangers D 2-267.3 1478 1455 54.06% 18.14% 27.81%+0.32 -0.7 18
2022-10-22 @ Ayr United D 2-267.3 1455 1478 27.81% 18.14% 54.06%-0.32 +0.7 12
2022-10-22 Greenock Morton D 0-058.4 1503 1455 57.16% 17.87% 24.97%+0.47 -1.2 18
2022-10-22 @ Dundee D 0-058.4 1455 1503 24.97% 17.87% 57.16%-0.47 +1.2 18
2022-10-22 Hamilton Academical W 1-040.0 1505 1403 63.13% 17.13% 19.75%+0.78 +3.3 10
2022-10-22 @ Arbroath L 0-140.0 1403 1505 19.75% 17.13% 63.13%-0.78 -3.3 10
2022-10-22 Queen's Park L 0-447.9 1502 1450 57.64% 17.82% 24.54%+0.49 -30.0 20
2022-10-22 @ Partick Thistle W 4-047.9 1450 1502 24.54% 17.82% 57.64%-0.49 +30.0 20
2022-10-22 Raith Rovers D 1-165.2 1557 1462 62.46% 17.23% 20.31%+0.75 -1.5 21
2022-10-22 @ Inverness CT D 1-165.2 1462 1557 20.31% 17.23% 62.46%-0.75 +1.5 16
2022-10-25 Partick Thistle W 4-251.3 1477 1472 51.87% 18.29% 29.85%+0.22 +7.0 21
2022-10-25 @ Ayr United L 2-451.3 1472 1477 29.85% 18.29% 51.87%-0.22 -7.0 20
2022-10-28 Dundee D 2-269.0 1480 1502 48.26% 18.46% 33.27%+0.06 -0.4 21
2022-10-28 @ Queen's Park D 2-269.0 1502 1480 33.27% 18.46% 48.26%-0.06 +0.4 19
2022-10-28 Inverness CT W 4-046.3 1457 1556 37.44% 18.58% 43.98%-0.39 +23.7 21
2022-10-28 @ Greenock Morton L 0-446.3 1556 1457 43.98% 18.58% 37.44%+0.39 -23.7 21
2022-10-29 Ayr United L 0-250.7 1508 1484 54.30% 18.12% 27.58%+0.33 -15.0 10
2022-10-29 @ Arbroath W 2-050.7 1484 1508 27.58% 18.12% 54.30%-0.33 +15.0 24
2022-10-29 Cove Rangers D 4-470.4 1400 1456 43.57% 18.59% 37.84%-0.13 -0.1 11
2022-10-29 @ Hamilton Academical D 4-470.4 1456 1400 37.84% 18.59% 43.57%+0.13 +0.1 13
2022-10-29 Partick Thistle W 3-039.6 1463 1465 50.98% 18.34% 30.68%+0.18 +13.4 19
2022-10-29 @ Raith Rovers L 0-339.6 1465 1463 30.68% 18.34% 50.98%-0.18 -13.4 20
2022-11-04 Queen's Park W 2-042.5 1456 1480 48.08% 18.47% 33.45%+0.05 +9.9 16
2022-11-04 @ Cove Rangers L 0-242.5 1480 1456 33.45% 18.47% 48.08%-0.05 -9.9 21
2022-11-05 Arbroath D 1-165.2 1532 1494 56.07% 17.97% 25.96%+0.42 -1.0 22
2022-11-05 @ Inverness CT D 1-165.2 1494 1532 25.96% 17.97% 56.07%-0.42 +1.0 11
2022-11-05 Dundee L 2-359.7 1452 1503 44.30% 18.58% 37.13%-0.10 -6.0 20
2022-11-05 @ Partick Thistle W 3-259.7 1503 1452 37.13% 18.58% 44.30%+0.10 +6.0 22
2022-11-05 Greenock Morton D 1-163.4 1499 1480 53.61% 18.17% 28.22%+0.30 -0.9 25
2022-11-05 @ Ayr United D 1-163.4 1480 1499 28.22% 18.17% 53.61%-0.30 +0.9 22
2022-11-05 Hamilton Academical W 3-142.4 1477 1400 60.45% 17.50% 22.05%+0.64 +5.9 22
2022-11-05 @ Raith Rovers L 1-342.4 1400 1477 22.05% 17.50% 60.45%-0.64 -5.9 11
2022-11-11 Ayr United L 2-355.3 1394 1498 36.75% 18.57% 44.69%-0.41 -5.1 11
2022-11-11 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-255.3 1498 1394 44.69% 18.57% 36.75%+0.41 +5.1 28
2022-11-12 Cove Rangers D 1-162.8 1495 1466 54.80% 18.08% 27.12%+0.36 -0.9 12
2022-11-12 @ Arbroath D 1-162.8 1466 1495 27.12% 18.08% 54.80%-0.36 +0.9 17
2022-11-12 Inverness CT W 2-154.7 1470 1531 42.80% 18.60% 38.61%-0.17 +5.6 24
2022-11-12 @ Queen's Park L 1-254.7 1531 1470 38.61% 18.60% 42.80%+0.17 -5.6 22
2022-11-12 Partick Thistle W 2-148.1 1481 1446 55.67% 18.01% 26.33%+0.40 +4.0 25
2022-11-12 @ Greenock Morton L 1-248.1 1446 1481 26.33% 18.01% 55.67%-0.40 -4.0 20
2022-11-12 Raith Rovers W 2-042.6 1509 1483 54.48% 18.10% 27.41%+0.34 +8.4 25
2022-11-12 @ Dundee L 0-242.6 1483 1509 27.41% 18.10% 54.48%-0.34 -8.4 22
2022-11-19 Arbroath W 3-041.9 1442 1494 44.16% 18.58% 37.26%-0.11 +15.8 23
2022-11-19 @ Partick Thistle L 0-341.9 1494 1442 37.26% 18.58% 44.16%+0.11 -15.8 12
2022-11-19 Ayr United D 2-270.8 1526 1503 54.04% 18.14% 27.82%+0.32 -0.7 23
2022-11-19 @ Inverness CT D 2-270.8 1503 1526 27.82% 18.14% 54.04%-0.32 +0.6 29
2022-11-19 Greenock Morton L 1-255.9 1467 1485 48.80% 18.44% 32.76%+0.09 -6.8 17
2022-11-19 @ Cove Rangers W 2-155.9 1485 1467 32.76% 18.44% 48.80%-0.09 +6.8 28
2022-11-19 Hamilton Academical W 1-039.1 1517 1389 65.74% 16.69% 17.57%+0.94 +2.9 28
2022-11-19 @ Dundee L 0-139.1 1389 1517 17.57% 16.69% 65.74%-0.94 -2.9 11
2022-11-19 Queen's Park L 2-554.2 1474 1475 51.08% 18.33% 30.59%+0.19 -15.0 22
2022-11-19 @ Raith Rovers W 5-254.2 1475 1474 30.59% 18.33% 51.08%-0.19 +15.1 27
2022-12-03 Dundee L 0-154.9 1525 1520 51.87% 18.28% 29.84%+0.22 -7.6 23
2022-12-03 @ Inverness CT W 1-054.9 1520 1525 29.84% 18.28% 51.87%-0.22 +7.6 31
2022-12-03 Greenock Morton D 1-163.0 1478 1492 49.32% 18.42% 32.26%+0.11 -0.6 13
2022-12-03 @ Arbroath D 1-163.0 1492 1478 32.26% 18.42% 49.32%-0.11 +0.6 29
2022-12-03 Hamilton Academical W 4-033.7 1490 1386 63.39% 17.09% 19.53%+0.80 +11.6 30
2022-12-03 @ Queen's Park L 0-433.7 1386 1490 19.53% 17.09% 63.39%-0.80 -11.6 11
2022-12-03 Partick Thistle D 1-161.2 1460 1458 51.56% 18.30% 30.14%+0.21 -0.7 18
2022-12-03 @ Cove Rangers D 1-161.2 1458 1460 30.14% 18.30% 51.56%-0.21 +0.7 24
2022-12-03 Raith Rovers W 2-040.9 1504 1459 56.78% 17.90% 25.32%+0.45 +7.8 32
2022-12-03 @ Ayr United L 0-240.9 1459 1504 25.32% 17.90% 56.78%-0.45 -7.8 22
2022-12-17 Arbroath D 1-161.5 1452 1477 47.79% 18.48% 33.73%+0.04 -0.5 23
2022-12-17 @ Raith Rovers D 1-161.5 1477 1452 33.73% 18.48% 47.79%-0.04 +0.5 14
2022-12-17 Ayr United W 3-258.2 1458 1512 43.92% 18.58% 37.50%-0.12 +5.2 27
2022-12-17 @ Partick Thistle L 2-358.2 1512 1458 37.50% 18.58% 43.92%+0.12 -5.2 32
2022-12-23 Dundee L 0-250.6 1507 1527 48.44% 18.46% 33.10%+0.07 -13.6 32
2022-12-23 @ Ayr United W 2-050.6 1527 1507 33.10% 18.46% 48.44%-0.07 +13.5 34
2022-12-23 Greenock Morton D 2-267.5 1451 1493 45.60% 18.55% 35.85%-0.05 -0.2 24
2022-12-23 @ Raith Rovers D 2-267.5 1493 1451 35.85% 18.55% 45.60%+0.05 +0.2 30
2022-12-23 Hamilton Academical W 2-035.3 1460 1374 61.36% 17.38% 21.26%+0.69 +6.6 21
2022-12-23 @ Cove Rangers L 0-235.3 1374 1460 21.26% 17.38% 61.36%-0.69 -6.6 11
2022-12-23 Inverness CT W 5-147.1 1463 1517 43.87% 18.58% 37.55%-0.12 +17.3 30
2022-12-23 @ Partick Thistle L 1-547.1 1517 1463 37.55% 18.58% 43.87%+0.12 -17.3 23
2022-12-23 Queen's Park L 1-451.7 1478 1502 47.97% 18.48% 33.55%+0.05 -16.5 14
2022-12-23 @ Arbroath W 4-151.7 1502 1478 33.55% 18.48% 47.97%-0.05 +16.5 33
2023-01-02 Arbroath L 2-462.3 1541 1461 60.78% 17.46% 21.77%+0.66 -12.9 34
2023-01-02 @ Dundee W 4-262.3 1461 1541 21.77% 17.46% 60.78%-0.66 +12.9 17
2023-01-02 Cove Rangers W 6-142.4 1500 1466 55.48% 18.02% 26.50%+0.39 +15.7 26
2023-01-02 @ Inverness CT L 1-642.4 1466 1500 26.50% 18.02% 55.48%-0.39 -15.7 21
2023-01-02 Partick Thistle W 2-042.5 1518 1481 55.94% 17.98% 26.08%+0.41 +8.0 36
2023-01-02 @ Queen's Park L 0-242.5 1481 1518 26.08% 17.98% 55.94%-0.41 -8.0 30
2023-01-02 Raith Rovers L 0-143.8 1368 1451 39.71% 18.61% 41.68%-0.29 -6.1 11
2023-01-02 @ Hamilton Academical W 1-043.8 1451 1368 41.68% 18.61% 39.71%+0.29 +6.1 27
2023-01-06 Dundee D 1-163.5 1457 1528 41.41% 18.61% 39.98%-0.22 -0.1 28
2023-01-06 @ Raith Rovers D 1-163.5 1528 1457 39.98% 18.61% 41.41%+0.22 +0.0 35
2023-01-07 Cove Rangers W 6-039.2 1526 1450 60.36% 17.51% 22.13%+0.63 +19.1 39
2023-01-07 @ Queen's Park L 0-639.2 1450 1526 22.13% 17.51% 60.36%-0.63 -19.1 21
2023-01-07 Greenock Morton W 2-151.7 1473 1493 48.54% 18.45% 33.01%+0.07 +4.9 33
2023-01-07 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.7 1493 1473 33.01% 18.45% 48.54%-0.07 -4.9 30
2023-01-07 Hamilton Academical W 1-037.4 1493 1362 66.06% 16.63% 17.30%+0.96 +2.9 35
2023-01-07 @ Ayr United L 0-137.4 1362 1493 17.30% 16.63% 66.06%-0.96 -2.9 11
2023-01-07 Inverness CT L 1-451.4 1474 1516 45.59% 18.55% 35.86%-0.05 -15.8 17
2023-01-07 @ Arbroath W 4-151.4 1516 1474 35.86% 18.55% 45.59%+0.05 +15.8 29
2023-01-14 Arbroath D 2-268.1 1496 1458 55.93% 17.98% 26.09%+0.41 -0.8 36
2023-01-14 @ Ayr United D 2-268.1 1458 1496 26.09% 17.98% 55.93%-0.41 +0.8 18
2023-01-14 Greenock Morton W 1-047.0 1359 1488 33.42% 18.47% 48.11%-0.56 +7.1 14
2023-01-14 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-147.0 1488 1359 48.11% 18.47% 33.42%+0.56 -7.1 30
2023-01-14 Queen's Park D 0-062.5 1532 1546 49.35% 18.42% 32.23%+0.11 -0.6 30
2023-01-14 @ Inverness CT D 0-062.5 1546 1532 32.23% 18.42% 49.35%-0.11 +0.6 40
2023-01-14 Raith Rovers D 2-265.7 1431 1457 47.81% 18.48% 33.71%+0.04 -0.3 22
2023-01-14 @ Cove Rangers D 2-265.7 1457 1431 33.71% 18.48% 47.81%-0.04 +0.4 29
2023-01-27 Ayr United L 0-543.1 1431 1495 42.41% 18.60% 38.99%-0.18 -28.3 22
2023-01-27 @ Cove Rangers W 5-043.1 1495 1431 38.99% 18.60% 42.41%+0.18 +28.3 39
2023-01-28 Arbroath L 1-256.9 1481 1459 53.97% 18.14% 27.89%+0.32 -7.5 30
2023-01-28 @ Greenock Morton W 2-156.9 1459 1481 27.89% 18.14% 53.97%-0.32 +7.5 21
2023-01-28 Hamilton Academical L 0-151.3 1478 1366 64.13% 16.97% 18.90%+0.84 -9.3 33
2023-01-28 @ Partick Thistle W 1-051.3 1366 1478 18.90% 16.97% 64.13%-0.84 +9.3 17
2023-01-28 Inverness CT D 2-269.2 1457 1531 41.06% 18.61% 40.33%-0.24 -0.0 30
2023-01-28 @ Raith Rovers D 2-269.2 1531 1457 40.33% 18.61% 41.06%+0.24 +0.0 31
2023-01-28 Queen's Park W 3-045.6 1528 1546 48.82% 18.44% 32.74%+0.09 +14.2 38
2023-01-28 @ Dundee L 0-345.6 1546 1528 32.74% 18.44% 48.82%-0.09 -14.2 40
2023-02-03 Ayr United W 2-045.6 1532 1524 52.30% 18.26% 29.44%+0.24 +8.9 43
2023-02-03 @ Queen's Park L 0-245.6 1524 1532 29.44% 18.26% 52.30%-0.24 -8.9 39
2023-02-04 Cove Rangers L 0-150.8 1468 1403 59.21% 17.65% 23.15%+0.57 -8.6 33
2023-02-04 @ Partick Thistle W 1-050.8 1403 1468 23.15% 17.65% 59.21%-0.57 +8.6 25
2023-02-04 Dundee D 1-161.2 1375 1542 28.70% 18.21% 53.10%-0.78 +0.8 18
2023-02-04 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-161.2 1542 1375 53.10% 18.21% 28.70%+0.78 -0.8 39
2023-02-04 Greenock Morton D 2-270.0 1531 1473 58.28% 17.75% 23.97%+0.53 -0.9 32
2023-02-04 @ Inverness CT D 2-270.0 1473 1531 23.97% 17.75% 58.28%-0.53 +0.9 31
2023-02-04 Raith Rovers L 1-255.9 1467 1457 52.41% 18.25% 29.34%+0.25 -7.3 21
2023-02-04 @ Arbroath W 2-155.9 1457 1467 29.34% 18.25% 52.41%-0.25 +7.3 33
2023-02-11 Queen's Park W 3-260.5 1474 1541 42.06% 18.60% 39.34%-0.20 +5.4 34
2023-02-11 @ Greenock Morton L 2-360.5 1541 1474 39.34% 18.60% 42.06%+0.20 -5.4 43
2023-02-12 Cove Rangers W 3-036.0 1542 1411 65.95% 16.65% 17.40%+0.95 +7.9 42
2023-02-12 @ Dundee L 0-336.0 1411 1542 17.40% 16.65% 65.95%-0.95 -7.9 25
2023-02-17 Dundee W 1-050.8 1480 1549 41.61% 18.61% 39.78%-0.21 +6.1 37
2023-02-17 @ Greenock Morton L 0-150.8 1549 1480 39.78% 18.61% 41.61%+0.21 -6.1 42
2023-02-17 Raith Rovers D 1-164.4 1536 1464 59.81% 17.58% 22.61%+0.60 -1.3 44
2023-02-17 @ Queen's Park D 1-164.4 1464 1536 22.61% 17.58% 59.81%-0.60 +1.3 34
2023-02-18 Arbroath D 1-159.3 1403 1459 43.59% 18.59% 37.82%-0.13 -0.2 26
2023-02-18 @ Cove Rangers D 1-159.3 1459 1403 37.82% 18.59% 43.59%+0.13 +0.2 22
2023-02-18 Hamilton Academical L 0-349.4 1530 1376 68.16% 16.22% 15.62%+1.09 -26.8 32
2023-02-18 @ Inverness CT W 3-049.4 1376 1530 15.62% 16.22% 68.16%-1.09 +26.8 21
2023-02-18 Partick Thistle L 0-154.0 1515 1460 57.97% 17.79% 24.25%+0.51 -8.4 39
2023-02-18 @ Ayr United W 1-054.0 1460 1515 24.25% 17.79% 57.97%-0.51 +8.4 36
2023-02-21 Inverness CT W 2-152.9 1403 1503 37.29% 18.58% 44.13%-0.39 +6.2 24
2023-02-21 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-252.9 1503 1403 44.13% 18.58% 37.29%+0.39 -6.2 32
2023-02-24 Ayr United D 0-058.6 1466 1506 45.76% 18.54% 35.70%-0.04 -0.4 35
2023-02-24 @ Raith Rovers D 0-058.6 1506 1466 35.70% 18.54% 45.76%+0.04 +0.4 40
2023-02-25 Cove Rangers W 2-145.3 1486 1403 61.07% 17.42% 21.51%+0.67 +3.3 40
2023-02-25 @ Greenock Morton L 1-245.3 1403 1486 21.51% 17.42% 61.07%-0.67 -3.3 26
2023-02-25 Inverness CT D 1-165.8 1543 1497 56.98% 17.88% 25.13%+0.46 -1.1 43
2023-02-25 @ Dundee D 1-165.8 1497 1543 25.13% 17.88% 56.98%-0.46 +1.1 33
2023-02-25 Partick Thistle D 0-057.1 1460 1468 50.06% 18.38% 31.55%+0.14 -0.7 23
2023-02-25 @ Arbroath D 0-057.1 1468 1460 31.55% 18.38% 50.06%-0.14 +0.7 37
2023-02-25 Queen's Park L 1-446.1 1409 1534 33.94% 18.49% 47.57%-0.54 -12.3 24
2023-02-25 @ Hamilton Academical W 4-146.1 1534 1409 47.57% 18.49% 33.94%+0.54 +12.3 47
2023-02-28 Partick Thistle L 1-358.5 1542 1469 60.07% 17.55% 22.38%+0.62 -14.2 43
2023-02-28 @ Dundee W 3-158.5 1469 1542 22.38% 17.55% 60.07%-0.62 +14.2 40
2023-03-03 Arbroath D 0-054.7 1397 1459 42.73% 18.60% 38.67%-0.17 -0.1 25
2023-03-03 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-054.7 1459 1397 38.67% 18.60% 42.73%+0.17 +0.1 24
2023-03-04 Dundee L 0-242.2 1400 1528 33.54% 18.47% 47.99%-0.55 -10.0 26
2023-03-04 @ Cove Rangers W 2-042.2 1528 1400 47.99% 18.47% 33.54%+0.55 +10.0 46
2023-03-04 Greenock Morton D 2-271.2 1547 1489 58.27% 17.75% 23.98%+0.53 -0.9 48
2023-03-04 @ Queen's Park D 2-271.2 1489 1547 23.98% 17.75% 58.27%-0.53 +0.9 41
2023-03-04 Inverness CT L 1-258.9 1507 1498 52.31% 18.26% 29.43%+0.24 -7.2 40
2023-03-04 @ Ayr United W 2-158.9 1498 1507 29.43% 18.26% 52.31%-0.24 +7.2 36
2023-03-04 Raith Rovers W 3-039.5 1483 1465 53.48% 18.18% 28.34%+0.29 +12.5 43
2023-03-04 @ Partick Thistle L 0-339.5 1465 1483 28.34% 18.18% 53.48%-0.29 -12.5 35
2023-03-07 Ayr United L 1-354.9 1490 1499 49.98% 18.39% 31.64%+0.14 -12.0 41
2023-03-07 @ Greenock Morton W 3-154.9 1499 1490 31.64% 18.39% 49.98%-0.14 +12.0 43
2023-03-10 Cove Rangers W 1-039.3 1546 1390 68.33% 16.19% 15.49%+1.10 +2.6 51
2023-03-10 @ Queen's Park L 0-139.3 1390 1546 15.49% 16.19% 68.33%-1.10 -2.6 26
2023-03-11 Partick Thistle D 0-058.7 1478 1496 48.86% 18.44% 32.70%+0.09 -0.6 42
2023-03-11 @ Greenock Morton D 0-058.7 1496 1478 32.70% 18.44% 48.86%-0.09 +0.6 44
2023-03-17 Greenock Morton D 1-161.8 1459 1477 48.78% 18.44% 32.78%+0.08 -0.5 25
2023-03-17 @ Arbroath D 1-161.8 1477 1459 32.78% 18.44% 48.78%-0.08 +0.5 43
2023-03-18 Ayr United L 0-242.1 1397 1511 35.33% 18.53% 46.14%-0.48 -10.4 25
2023-03-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-042.1 1511 1397 46.14% 18.53% 35.33%+0.48 +10.4 46
2023-03-18 Cove Rangers W 6-137.2 1453 1387 59.20% 17.65% 23.15%+0.57 +13.9 38
2023-03-18 @ Raith Rovers L 1-637.2 1387 1453 23.15% 17.65% 59.20%-0.57 -13.9 26
2023-03-18 Dundee D 0-061.0 1496 1538 45.57% 18.55% 35.88%-0.05 -0.3 45
2023-03-18 @ Partick Thistle D 0-061.0 1538 1496 35.88% 18.55% 45.57%+0.05 +0.4 47
2023-03-18 Inverness CT W 2-152.5 1548 1505 56.57% 17.92% 25.50%+0.44 +3.9 54
2023-03-18 @ Queen's Park L 1-252.5 1505 1548 25.50% 17.92% 56.57%-0.44 -3.9 36
2023-03-21 Ayr United W 3-151.0 1538 1522 53.33% 18.19% 28.48%+0.29 +7.5 50
2023-03-21 @ Dundee L 1-351.0 1522 1538 28.48% 18.19% 53.33%-0.29 -7.5 46
2023-03-24 Arbroath L 0-156.5 1552 1458 62.28% 17.25% 20.47%+0.74 -9.0 54
2023-03-24 @ Queen's Park W 1-056.5 1458 1552 20.47% 17.25% 62.28%-0.74 +9.0 28
2023-03-24 Cove Rangers W 3-033.4 1514 1373 66.96% 16.46% 16.58%+1.01 +7.6 49
2023-03-24 @ Ayr United L 0-333.4 1373 1514 16.58% 16.46% 66.96%-1.01 -7.6 26
2023-03-24 Partick Thistle W 1-046.5 1501 1496 51.91% 18.28% 29.81%+0.22 +4.8 39
2023-03-24 @ Inverness CT L 0-146.5 1496 1501 29.81% 18.28% 51.91%-0.22 -4.8 45
2023-03-31 Ayr United W 2-045.7 1467 1522 43.80% 18.58% 37.61%-0.12 +11.0 31
2023-03-31 @ Arbroath L 0-245.7 1522 1467 37.61% 18.58% 43.80%+0.12 -11.0 49
2023-04-01 Hamilton Academical W 7-035.7 1546 1386 68.66% 16.11% 15.22%+1.12 +15.4 53
2023-04-01 @ Dundee L 0-735.7 1386 1546 15.22% 16.11% 68.66%-1.12 -15.4 25
2023-04-01 Inverness CT L 1-256.7 1478 1506 47.43% 18.49% 34.07%+0.03 -6.6 43
2023-04-01 @ Greenock Morton W 2-156.7 1506 1478 34.07% 18.49% 47.43%-0.03 +6.7 42
2023-04-01 Partick Thistle L 0-538.3 1366 1491 33.92% 18.49% 47.59%-0.54 -23.5 26
2023-04-01 @ Cove Rangers W 5-038.3 1491 1366 47.59% 18.49% 33.92%+0.54 +23.5 48
2023-04-01 Queen's Park W 2-047.4 1467 1543 40.67% 18.61% 40.73%-0.25 +11.7 41
2023-04-01 @ Raith Rovers L 0-247.4 1543 1467 40.73% 18.61% 40.67%+0.25 -11.7 54
2023-04-04 Hamilton Academical L 1-256.6 1478 1371 63.71% 17.04% 19.25%+0.82 -8.7 41
2023-04-04 @ Raith Rovers W 2-156.6 1371 1478 19.25% 17.04% 63.71%-0.82 +8.7 28
2023-04-07 Queen's Park W 4-044.1 1515 1531 48.98% 18.43% 32.58%+0.09 +18.4 51
2023-04-07 @ Partick Thistle L 0-444.1 1531 1515 32.58% 18.43% 48.98%-0.09 -18.4 54
2023-04-08 Cove Rangers D 1-156.5 1380 1342 55.88% 17.99% 26.13%+0.41 -1.0 29
2023-04-08 @ Hamilton Academical D 1-156.5 1342 1380 26.13% 17.99% 55.88%-0.41 +1.0 27
2023-04-08 Dundee D 0-061.1 1478 1561 39.75% 18.61% 41.65%-0.29 +0.1 32
2023-04-08 @ Arbroath D 0-061.1 1561 1478 41.65% 18.61% 39.75%+0.29 -0.1 54
2023-04-08 Greenock Morton D 1-163.6 1511 1471 56.18% 17.96% 25.86%+0.42 -1.0 50
2023-04-08 @ Ayr United D 1-163.6 1471 1511 25.86% 17.96% 56.18%-0.42 +1.0 44
2023-04-08 Raith Rovers W 2-041.7 1513 1470 56.57% 17.92% 25.51%+0.44 +7.8 45
2023-04-08 @ Inverness CT L 0-241.7 1470 1513 25.51% 17.92% 56.57%-0.44 -7.8 41
2023-04-11 Arbroath W 2-042.3 1521 1478 56.47% 17.93% 25.60%+0.44 +7.9 48
2023-04-11 @ Inverness CT L 0-242.3 1478 1521 25.60% 17.93% 56.47%-0.44 -7.9 32
2023-04-11 Hamilton Academical W 2-035.5 1472 1379 62.27% 17.25% 20.48%+0.74 +6.4 47
2023-04-11 @ Greenock Morton L 0-235.5 1379 1472 20.48% 17.25% 62.27%-0.74 -6.4 29
2023-04-11 Raith Rovers W 3-146.8 1561 1462 62.85% 17.17% 19.98%+0.77 +5.4 57
2023-04-11 @ Dundee L 1-346.8 1462 1561 19.98% 17.17% 62.85%-0.77 -5.4 41
2023-04-14 Hamilton Academical W 1-038.1 1513 1372 66.96% 16.46% 16.58%+1.01 +2.8 57
2023-04-14 @ Queen's Park L 0-138.1 1372 1513 16.58% 16.46% 66.96%-1.01 -2.8 29
2023-04-15 Arbroath D 1-161.5 1457 1471 49.35% 18.42% 32.23%+0.11 -0.6 42
2023-04-15 @ Raith Rovers D 1-161.5 1471 1457 32.23% 18.42% 49.35%-0.11 +0.6 33
2023-04-15 Ayr United D 1-165.8 1533 1510 54.16% 18.13% 27.71%+0.33 -0.9 52
2023-04-15 @ Partick Thistle D 1-165.8 1510 1533 27.71% 18.13% 54.16%-0.33 +0.9 51
2023-04-15 Greenock Morton D 3-375.6 1567 1479 61.66% 17.34% 21.00%+0.70 -0.9 58
2023-04-15 @ Dundee D 3-375.6 1479 1567 21.00% 17.34% 61.66%-0.70 +0.9 48
2023-04-15 Inverness CT L 1-246.4 1343 1528 26.63% 18.03% 55.33%-0.89 -4.1 27
2023-04-15 @ Cove Rangers W 2-146.4 1528 1343 55.33% 18.03% 26.63%+0.89 +4.1 51
2023-04-18 Inverness CT L 1-248.2 1369 1533 29.17% 18.24% 52.59%-0.76 -4.4 29
2023-04-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-148.2 1533 1369 52.59% 18.24% 29.17%+0.76 +4.4 54
2023-04-21 Queen's Park D 0-060.7 1511 1516 50.54% 18.36% 31.10%+0.16 -0.7 52
2023-04-21 @ Ayr United D 0-060.7 1516 1511 31.10% 18.36% 50.54%-0.16 +0.7 58
2023-04-22 Cove Rangers L 0-150.9 1471 1339 66.11% 16.62% 17.26%+0.96 -9.5 33
2023-04-22 @ Arbroath W 1-050.9 1339 1471 17.26% 16.62% 66.11%-0.96 +9.5 30
2023-04-22 Dundee D 1-167.8 1537 1566 47.37% 18.50% 34.14%+0.02 -0.4 55
2023-04-22 @ Inverness CT D 1-167.8 1566 1537 34.14% 18.50% 47.37%-0.02 +0.4 59
2023-04-22 Partick Thistle D 2-266.1 1365 1532 28.69% 18.20% 53.11%-0.78 +0.6 30
2023-04-22 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-266.1 1532 1365 53.11% 18.20% 28.69%+0.78 -0.6 53
2023-04-22 Raith Rovers W 1-043.6 1479 1456 54.20% 18.13% 27.68%+0.33 +4.5 51
2023-04-22 @ Greenock Morton L 0-143.6 1456 1479 27.68% 18.13% 54.20%-0.33 -4.5 42
2023-04-28 Cove Rangers D 0-057.7 1566 1349 73.42% 14.93% 11.65%+1.46 -2.5 60
2023-04-28 @ Dundee D 0-057.7 1349 1566 11.65% 14.93% 73.42%-1.46 +2.5 31
2023-04-29 Arbroath W 2-041.1 1532 1462 59.68% 17.59% 22.72%+0.60 +7.0 56
2023-04-29 @ Partick Thistle L 0-241.1 1462 1532 22.72% 17.59% 59.68%-0.60 -7.1 33
2023-04-29 Queen's Park W 2-153.5 1484 1517 46.84% 18.51% 34.64%+0.00 +5.1 54
2023-04-29 @ Greenock Morton L 1-253.5 1517 1484 34.64% 18.51% 46.84%+0.00 -5.1 58
2023-04-29 Raith Rovers W 1-043.3 1510 1452 58.39% 17.74% 23.87%+0.53 +3.9 55
2023-04-29 @ Ayr United L 0-143.3 1452 1510 23.87% 17.74% 58.39%-0.53 -3.9 42
2023-05-05 Ayr United L 1-261.0 1537 1514 54.08% 18.13% 27.78%+0.32 -7.5 55
2023-05-05 @ Inverness CT W 2-161.0 1514 1537 27.78% 18.13% 54.08%-0.32 +7.5 58
2023-05-05 Dundee L 3-562.1 1511 1564 44.10% 18.58% 37.32%-0.11 -9.2 58
2023-05-05 @ Queen's Park W 5-362.1 1564 1511 37.32% 18.58% 44.10%+0.11 +9.1 63
2023-05-05 Greenock Morton L 1-247.4 1351 1489 32.30% 18.42% 49.28%-0.61 -4.8 31
2023-05-05 @ Cove Rangers W 2-147.4 1489 1351 49.28% 18.42% 32.30%+0.61 +4.8 57
2023-05-05 Hamilton Academical D 0-054.2 1455 1366 61.78% 17.32% 20.90%+0.71 -1.6 34
2023-05-05 @ Arbroath D 0-054.2 1366 1455 20.90% 17.32% 61.78%-0.71 +1.6 31
2023-05-05 Partick Thistle D 2-269.1 1448 1539 38.59% 18.60% 42.82%-0.34 +0.1 43
2023-05-05 @ Raith Rovers D 2-269.1 1539 1448 42.82% 18.60% 38.59%+0.34 -0.1 57

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2022-10-18 14.24% Hamilton Academical 1393 1 @ Inverness CT 1567 0
2 2023-02-18 15.62% Hamilton Academical 1376 3 @ Inverness CT 1530 0
3 2023-04-22 17.26% Cove Rangers 1339 1 @ Arbroath 1471 0
4 2023-01-28 18.90% Hamilton Academical 1366 1 @ Partick Thistle 1478 0
5 2023-04-04 19.25% Hamilton Academical 1371 2 @ Raith Rovers 1478 1
6 2022-08-27 19.37% Greenock Morton 1437 1 @ Inverness CT 1543 0
7 2023-03-24 20.47% Arbroath 1458 1 @ Queen's Park 1552 0
8 2022-08-20 20.89% Queen's Park 1462 2 @ Arbroath 1551 1
9 2023-01-02 21.77% Arbroath 1461 4 @ Dundee 1541 2
10 2023-02-28 22.38% Partick Thistle 1469 3 @ Dundee 1542 1
11 2023-02-04 23.15% Cove Rangers 1403 1 @ Partick Thistle 1468 0
12 2022-09-03 23.41% Partick Thistle 1473 2 @ Arbroath 1536 0
13 2022-10-19 23.68% Raith Rovers 1453 1 @ Arbroath 1514 0
14 2022-10-04 23.84% Greenock Morton 1422 2 @ Queen's Park 1481 1
15 2023-02-18 24.25% Partick Thistle 1460 1 @ Ayr United 1515 0
16 2022-10-22 24.54% Queen's Park 1450 4 @ Partick Thistle 1502 0
17 2022-07-30 26.06% Partick Thistle 1451 3 @ Dundee 1489 2
18 2022-08-05 27.54% Ayr United 1440 3 @ Queen's Park 1465 2
19 2022-10-29 27.58% Ayr United 1484 2 @ Arbroath 1508 0
20 2023-05-05 27.78% Ayr United 1514 2 @ Inverness CT 1537 1
21 2023-01-28 27.89% Arbroath 1459 2 @ Greenock Morton 1481 1
22 2022-08-20 28.07% Ayr United 1447 2 @ Cove Rangers 1467 1
23 2023-02-04 29.34% Raith Rovers 1457 2 @ Arbroath 1467 1
24 2023-03-04 29.43% Inverness CT 1498 2 @ Ayr United 1507 1
25 2022-08-20 29.54% Raith Rovers 1445 2 @ Hamilton Academical 1452 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2022-10-22 30.04 Queen's Park 4 1450 24.54% @ Partick Thistle 0 1502 57.64% 17.82%
2 2023-01-27 28.30 Ayr United 5 1495 38.99% @ Cove Rangers 0 1431 42.41% 18.60%
3 2023-02-18 26.84 Hamilton Academical 3 1376 15.62% @ Inverness CT 0 1530 68.16% 16.22%
4 2022-10-28 23.67 @ Greenock Morton 4 1457 37.44% Inverness CT 0 1556 43.98% 18.58%
5 2023-04-01 23.52 Partick Thistle 5 1491 47.59% @ Cove Rangers 0 1366 33.92% 18.49%
6 2022-10-08 22.42 @ Ayr United 5 1460 49.51% Queen's Park 0 1473 32.07% 18.41%
7 2022-10-08 20.68 @ Greenock Morton 5 1430 52.54% Hamilton Academical 0 1419 29.22% 18.24%
8 2023-01-07 19.11 @ Queen's Park 6 1526 60.36% Cove Rangers 0 1450 22.13% 17.51%
9 2023-04-07 18.44 @ Partick Thistle 4 1515 48.98% Queen's Park 0 1531 32.58% 18.43%
10 2022-12-23 17.31 @ Partick Thistle 5 1463 43.87% Inverness CT 1 1517 37.55% 18.58%
11 2022-12-23 16.45 Queen's Park 4 1502 33.55% @ Arbroath 1 1478 47.97% 18.48%
12 2022-09-03 16.15 Partick Thistle 2 1473 23.41% @ Arbroath 0 1536 58.90% 17.68%
13 2022-11-19 15.80 @ Partick Thistle 3 1442 44.16% Arbroath 0 1494 37.26% 18.58%
14 2023-01-07 15.75 Inverness CT 4 1516 35.86% @ Arbroath 1 1474 45.59% 18.55%
15 2023-01-02 15.71 @ Inverness CT 6 1500 55.48% Cove Rangers 1 1466 26.50% 18.02%
16 2022-08-19 15.53 @ Partick Thistle 4 1453 36.59% Inverness CT 1 1559 44.85% 18.57%
17 2023-04-01 15.40 @ Dundee 7 1546 68.66% Hamilton Academical 0 1386 15.22% 16.11%
18 2022-11-19 15.06 Queen's Park 5 1475 30.59% @ Raith Rovers 2 1474 51.08% 18.33%
19 2022-10-29 14.99 Ayr United 2 1484 27.58% @ Arbroath 0 1508 54.30% 18.12%
20 2022-10-08 14.87 @ Raith Rovers 3 1444 46.85% Cove Rangers 0 1476 34.64% 18.51%
21 2022-08-20 14.47 Raith Rovers 2 1445 29.54% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1452 52.20% 18.26%
22 2023-02-28 14.25 Partick Thistle 3 1469 22.38% @ Dundee 1 1542 60.07% 17.55%
23 2023-01-28 14.17 @ Dundee 3 1528 48.82% Queen's Park 0 1546 32.74% 18.44%
24 2023-03-18 13.89 @ Raith Rovers 6 1453 59.20% Cove Rangers 1 1387 23.15% 17.65%
25 2022-09-17 13.66 Queen's Park 2 1463 32.64% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1445 48.92% 18.44%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-04-15 75.6 @ Dundee 3 1567 61.66% Greenock Morton 3 1479 21.00% 17.34%
2 2023-03-04 71.2 @ Queen's Park 2 1547 58.27% Greenock Morton 2 1489 23.98% 17.75%
3 2022-11-19 70.8 @ Inverness CT 2 1526 54.04% Ayr United 2 1503 27.82% 18.14%
4 2022-10-29 70.4 @ Hamilton Academical 4 1400 43.57% Cove Rangers 4 1456 37.84% 18.59%
5 2023-02-04 70.0 @ Inverness CT 2 1531 58.28% Greenock Morton 2 1473 23.97% 17.75%
6 2023-01-28 69.2 @ Raith Rovers 2 1457 41.06% Inverness CT 2 1531 40.33% 18.61%
7 2023-05-05 69.1 @ Raith Rovers 2 1448 38.59% Partick Thistle 2 1539 42.82% 18.60%
8 2022-10-28 69.0 @ Queen's Park 2 1480 48.26% Dundee 2 1502 33.27% 18.46%
9 2023-01-14 68.1 @ Ayr United 2 1496 55.93% Arbroath 2 1458 26.09% 17.98%
10 2023-04-22 67.8 @ Inverness CT 1 1537 47.37% Dundee 1 1566 34.14% 18.50%
11 2022-09-17 67.7 @ Partick Thistle 2 1489 55.58% Cove Rangers 2 1455 26.41% 18.01%
12 2022-12-23 67.5 @ Raith Rovers 2 1451 45.60% Greenock Morton 2 1493 35.85% 18.55%
13 2022-10-22 67.3 @ Ayr United 2 1478 54.06% Cove Rangers 2 1455 27.81% 18.14%
14 2022-08-13 66.1 @ Ayr United 2 1448 50.64% Hamilton Academical 2 1452 31.01% 18.35%
15 2022-09-03 66.1 @ Cove Rangers 2 1455 52.58% Hamilton Academical 2 1445 29.18% 18.24%
16 2023-04-22 66.1 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1365 28.69% Partick Thistle 2 1532 53.11% 18.20%
17 2023-02-25 65.8 @ Dundee 1 1543 56.98% Inverness CT 1 1497 25.13% 17.88%
18 2023-04-15 65.8 @ Partick Thistle 1 1533 54.16% Ayr United 1 1510 27.71% 18.13%
19 2023-01-14 65.7 @ Cove Rangers 2 1431 47.81% Raith Rovers 2 1457 33.71% 18.48%
20 2022-10-22 65.2 @ Inverness CT 1 1557 62.46% Raith Rovers 1 1462 20.31% 17.23%
21 2022-11-05 65.2 @ Inverness CT 1 1532 56.07% Arbroath 1 1494 25.96% 17.97%
22 2022-07-30 65.0 @ Inverness CT 1 1551 61.57% Queen's Park 1 1464 21.08% 17.35%
23 2022-10-08 64.7 @ Arbroath 1 1514 53.28% Dundee 1 1498 28.53% 18.19%
24 2023-02-17 64.4 @ Queen's Park 1 1536 59.81% Raith Rovers 1 1464 22.61% 17.58%
25 2022-08-06 63.7 @ Arbroath 0 1561 52.74% Inverness CT 0 1549 29.03% 18.23%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2023-03-24 33.4 @ Ayr United 3 1514 66.96% Cove Rangers 0 1373 16.58% 16.46%
2 2022-12-03 33.7 @ Queen's Park 4 1490 63.39% Hamilton Academical 0 1386 19.53% 17.09%
3 2022-12-23 35.3 @ Cove Rangers 2 1460 61.36% Hamilton Academical 0 1374 21.26% 17.38%
4 2023-04-11 35.5 @ Greenock Morton 2 1472 62.27% Hamilton Academical 0 1379 20.48% 17.25%
5 2023-04-01 35.7 @ Dundee 7 1546 68.66% Hamilton Academical 0 1386 15.22% 16.11%
6 2023-02-12 36.0 @ Dundee 3 1542 65.95% Cove Rangers 0 1411 17.40% 16.65%
7 2022-10-08 36.6 @ Greenock Morton 5 1430 52.54% Hamilton Academical 0 1419 29.22% 18.24%
8 2023-03-18 37.2 @ Raith Rovers 6 1453 59.20% Cove Rangers 1 1387 23.15% 17.65%
9 2023-01-07 37.4 @ Ayr United 1 1493 66.06% Hamilton Academical 0 1362 17.30% 16.63%
10 2023-04-14 38.1 @ Queen's Park 1 1513 66.96% Hamilton Academical 0 1372 16.58% 16.46%
11 2023-04-01 38.3 Partick Thistle 5 1491 47.59% @ Cove Rangers 0 1366 33.92% 18.49%
12 2022-11-19 39.1 @ Dundee 1 1517 65.74% Hamilton Academical 0 1389 17.57% 16.69%
13 2023-01-07 39.2 @ Queen's Park 6 1526 60.36% Cove Rangers 0 1450 22.13% 17.51%
14 2023-03-10 39.3 @ Queen's Park 1 1546 68.33% Cove Rangers 0 1390 15.49% 16.19%
15 2023-03-04 39.5 @ Partick Thistle 3 1483 53.48% Raith Rovers 0 1465 28.34% 18.18%
16 2022-10-29 39.6 @ Raith Rovers 3 1463 50.98% Partick Thistle 0 1465 30.68% 18.34%
17 2022-10-22 40.0 @ Arbroath 1 1505 63.13% Hamilton Academical 0 1403 19.75% 17.13%
18 2022-10-08 40.2 @ Ayr United 5 1460 49.51% Queen's Park 0 1473 32.07% 18.41%
19 2022-09-03 40.3 @ Dundee 3 1489 52.93% Queen's Park 0 1475 28.85% 18.22%
20 2022-10-08 40.5 @ Raith Rovers 3 1444 46.85% Cove Rangers 0 1476 34.64% 18.51%
21 2022-07-30 40.6 @ Cove Rangers 2 1473 53.38% Raith Rovers 0 1456 28.43% 18.19%
22 2022-10-01 40.8 @ Partick Thistle 5 1489 58.00% Greenock Morton 1 1434 24.22% 17.78%
23 2022-12-03 40.9 @ Ayr United 2 1504 56.78% Raith Rovers 0 1459 25.32% 17.90%
24 2023-04-29 41.1 @ Partick Thistle 2 1532 59.68% Arbroath 0 1462 22.72% 17.59%
25 2023-04-08 41.7 @ Inverness CT 2 1513 56.57% Raith Rovers 0 1470 25.51% 17.92%