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2023-24 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Dundee United

75 pts

Relegated

Arbroath

23 pts

Inverness CT · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Airdrieonians

15.54 points above expected

52 points · 36.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Arbroath

13.57 points below expected

23 points · 36.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Dundee United Promoted 36 22 9 5 75 73 23 +50 69.93 +5.07
2 Raith Rovers 36 20 9 7 69 58 42 +16 54.23 +14.77
3 Partick Thistle 36 14 13 9 55 63 54 +9 57.88 -2.88
4 Airdrieonians 36 15 7 14 52 44 44 0 36.46 +15.54
5 Greenock Morton 36 12 9 15 45 43 46 -3 49.92 -4.92
6 Dunfermline Athletic 36 11 12 13 45 43 48 -5 46.25 -1.25
7 Ayr United 36 12 8 16 44 53 61 -8 45.61 -1.61
8 Queens Park 36 11 10 15 43 50 56 -6 47.19 -4.19
9 Inverness CT Relegated 36 10 12 14 42 41 40 +1 49.51 -7.51
10 Arbroath Relegated 36 6 5 25 23 35 89 -54 36.57 -13.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Airdrieonians 52 36.46 +15.54
2 Raith Rovers 69 54.23 +14.77
3 Dundee United 75 69.93 +5.07
4 Dunfermline Athletic 45 46.25 -1.25
5 Ayr United 44 45.61 -1.61

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 23 36.57 -13.57
2 Inverness CT 42 49.51 -7.51
3 Greenock Morton 45 49.92 -4.92
4 Queens Park 43 47.19 -4.19
5 Partick Thistle 55 57.88 -2.88

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raith Rovers 5 Nov 11 – Dec 16 1 in 316
2 Arbroath 4 Aug 26 – Sep 23 1 in 112
3 Airdrieonians 4 Apr 2 – Apr 13 1 in 68
4 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Mar 15 – Mar 30 1 in 63
5 Greenock Morton 3 Dec 9 – Dec 16 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Arbroath 10 Mar 9 – May 3 1 in 343
2 Queens Park 5 Aug 26 – Sep 30 1 in 165
3 Raith Rovers 3 Jan 6 – Jan 27 1 in 105
4 Greenock Morton 4 Mar 2 – Mar 23 1 in 98
5 Inverness CT 3 Aug 5 – Aug 26 1 in 37

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 13 Dec 9 – Feb 27 1 in 525
2 Raith Rovers 13 Sep 30 – Jan 2 1 in 235
3 Dundee United 14 Aug 4 – Dec 9 1 in 33
4 Airdrieonians 5 Dec 23 – Jan 27 1 in 27
5 Inverness CT 6 Sep 30 – Nov 18 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queens Park 15 Aug 26 – Jan 2 1 in 575
2 Partick Thistle 8 Jan 13 – Mar 12 1 in 78
3 Dunfermline Athletic 9 Dec 16 – Feb 17 1 in 59
4 Greenock Morton 7 Aug 12 – Oct 7 1 in 23
5 Inverness CT 6 Aug 5 – Sep 23 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Dundee United 1661 75 +47 13 9.9 +3.1
Raith Rovers 1511 69 +1 8 8.3 -0.3
Partick Thistle 1511 55 +10 6 7.1 -1.1
Airdrieonians 1423 52 -9 7 5.5 +1.5
Greenock Morton 1445 45 -19 5 6.7 -1.7
Dunfermline Athletic 1418 45 -6 4 6.4 -2.4
Ayr United 1431 44 +18 6 6.3 -0.3
Queens Park 1453 43 +7 7 6.8 +0.2
Inverness CT 1471 42 +15 10 7.8 +2.2
Arbroath 1229 23 -64 0 3.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AIR ARB AU DU DA GM IC PT QP RR
Airdrieonians —
3-0-1
5.44
0-0-4
4.60
1-1-2
2.38
2-0-2
4.58
2-1-1
4.11
2-1-1
3.76
1-1-2
3.54
1-2-1
4.57
3-1-0
3.51
Arbroath
1-0-3
5.48
 —
1-1-2
4.70
0-0-4
3.16
0-2-2
4.51
1-0-3
4.21
1-1-2
4.32
1-0-3
3.91
0-0-4
4.00
1-1-2
3.24
Ayr United
4-0-0
6.29
2-1-1
6.21
 —
0-0-4
3.24
1-2-1
5.43
0-1-3
5.53
2-0-2
4.95
1-2-1
4.31
2-1-1
5.30
0-1-3
4.48
Dundee United
2-1-1
8.76
4-0-0
7.90
4-0-0
7.81
 —
1-2-1
7.98
2-1-1
7.75
2-2-0
7.60
3-1-0
6.96
3-1-0
8.06
1-1-2
7.30
Dunfermline Athletic
2-0-2
6.34
2-2-0
6.37
1-2-1
5.44
1-2-1
3.04
 —
3-0-1
5.38
0-4-0
4.84
1-1-2
4.36
1-1-2
5.65
0-0-4
4.84
Greenock Morton
1-1-2
6.82
3-0-1
6.72
3-1-0
5.35
1-1-2
3.26
1-0-3
5.51
 —
1-1-2
5.11
0-1-3
4.55
2-2-0
5.75
0-2-2
5.20
Inverness CT
1-1-2
7.18
2-1-1
6.63
2-0-2
5.94
0-2-2
3.39
0-4-0
6.04
2-1-1
5.79
 —
0-3-1
4.58
2-0-2
6.15
1-0-3
5.18
Partick Thistle
2-1-1
7.42
3-0-1
7.04
1-2-1
6.59
0-1-3
3.98
2-1-1
6.56
3-1-0
6.34
1-3-0
6.31
 —
2-2-0
6.27
0-2-2
5.75
Queens Park
1-2-1
6.32
4-0-0
6.91
1-1-2
5.58
0-1-3
2.97
2-1-1
5.24
0-2-2
5.13
2-0-2
4.74
0-2-2
4.63
 —
1-1-2
4.69
Raith Rovers
0-1-3
7.45
2-1-1
7.79
3-1-0
6.43
2-1-1
3.65
4-0-0
6.06
2-2-0
5.67
3-0-1
5.70
2-2-0
5.14
2-1-1
6.21
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.73 +10.8
Allowed 0.68 -7.1
Differential 0.89 +5.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.44%7.22%3.89%2.78%1.67%2.22%27.22%
17.22%11.11%10.56%3.33%1.39%—33.61%
23.89%10.56%3.89%2.78%—0.56%21.67%
32.78%3.33%2.78%1.11%0.56%—10.56%
41.67%1.39%—0.56%0.56%—4.17%
5+2.22%—0.56%———2.78%
Total27.22%33.61%21.67%10.56%4.17%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.90
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%8.33%—5.56%—27.78%
18.33%11.11%16.67%———36.11%
211.11%13.89%—2.78%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+——2.78%———2.78%
Total27.78%36.11%27.78%2.78%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.10 1.07 1.64
CV 0.90 0.88 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%5.56%8.33%8.33%13.89%44.44%
1—8.33%16.67%2.78%——27.78%
2—5.56%2.78%5.56%—2.78%16.67%
35.56%—2.78%———8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total11.11%19.44%27.78%16.67%8.33%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 2.47 -1.50
SD 1.11 1.70 2.44
CV 1.14 0.69 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%—25.00%
18.33%2.78%16.67%8.33%——36.11%
22.78%11.11%8.33%———22.22%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4———2.78%2.78%—5.56%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total19.44%22.22%33.33%19.44%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.69 -0.22
SD 1.38 1.17 1.73
CV 0.94 0.69 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%2.78%———13.89%
113.89%16.67%2.78%2.78%——36.11%
28.33%5.56%—2.78%——16.67%
38.33%2.78%————11.11%
45.56%8.33%————13.89%
5+8.33%—————8.33%
Total52.78%36.11%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.03 0.64 +1.39
SD 1.61 0.83 1.98
CV 0.80 1.30 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%5.56%5.56%—2.78%30.56%
12.78%19.44%13.89%———36.11%
25.56%8.33%2.78%———16.67%
32.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total19.44%44.44%25.00%8.33%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.33 -0.14
SD 1.06 1.07 1.62
CV 0.89 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%8.33%2.78%2.78%——30.56%
15.56%8.33%11.11%8.33%5.56%—38.89%
22.78%11.11%—2.78%——16.67%
35.56%2.78%2.78%———11.11%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total33.33%30.56%16.67%13.89%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.28 -0.08
SD 1.17 1.23 1.76
CV 0.98 0.97 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%19.44%2.78%———33.33%
15.56%19.44%16.67%———41.67%
22.78%2.78%————5.56%
3—8.33%5.56%2.78%——16.67%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total19.44%52.78%25.00%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.11 +0.03
SD 1.15 0.75 1.16
CV 1.01 0.67 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%—5.56%—2.78%19.44%
15.56%13.89%2.78%2.78%2.78%—27.78%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
32.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%5.56%—19.44%
48.33%2.78%————11.11%
5+———————
Total25.00%36.11%16.67%11.11%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.75 1.50 +0.25
SD 1.30 1.36 1.99
CV 0.74 0.91 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%5.56%5.56%——2.78%27.78%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
22.78%13.89%8.33%8.33%—2.78%36.11%
32.78%—————2.78%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total30.56%25.00%19.44%13.89%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.56 -0.17
SD 1.34 1.48 2.10
CV 0.96 0.95 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
116.67%5.56%2.78%2.78%——27.78%
22.78%22.22%5.56%5.56%——36.11%
3——8.33%———8.33%
4———2.78%2.78%—5.56%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total33.33%33.33%19.44%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.17 +0.44
SD 1.23 1.11 1.23
CV 0.76 0.95 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dundee United 1661 75 69.93 +5.07 79.0% 47 56 66 70 74 83 86
Partick Thistle 1511 55 57.88 -2.88 40.0% 37 44 52 57 64 73 78
Raith Rovers 1511 69 54.23 +14.77 99.0% 31 42 50 54 59 68 72
Inverness CT 1471 42 49.51 -7.51 18.0% 33 35 45 50 55 60 71
Queens Park 1453 43 47.19 -4.19 32.0% 29 35 41 47 54 58 69
Greenock Morton 1445 45 49.92 -4.92 28.0% 33 40 45 49 54 63 70
Ayr United 1431 44 45.61 -1.61 42.0% 24 31 39 46 51 60 65
Airdrieonians 1423 52 36.46 +15.54 99.0% 21 26 31 37 41 48 63
Dunfermline Athletic 1418 45 46.25 -1.25 51.0% 21 35 41 45 52 58 65
Arbroath 1229 23 36.57 -13.57 2.0% 22 25 32 37 41 47 50

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-0.56%
No Edge
36.67%26.11%37.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -1.93 Elo pts.
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.07 goals
Neutral
-2-0.01+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.6
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
79%
Dundee United, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.260.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.16 * Some Luck: 6.16 to 9.24 * Lucky: 9.24 to 12.31 * Wild Swing: 12.31 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.23 * Close: 1.23 to 1.84 * Off: 1.84 to 2.45 * Way Off: 2.45 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.25 * A Surprise: 1.25 to 2 * Several Surprises: 2 to 2.75 * Many Surprises: 2.75 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.83 points
Some Luck
07.7019
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.534
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
99.00%
Raith Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.00%
Arbroath
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 107.01
1.87
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
92%
Strong Edge
50%88%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.30
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.49
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.11
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.09
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.74
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1270.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Dundee United79.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%—1.00%————
Raith Rovers7.00%18.00%18.00%26.00%14.00%5.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%
Partick Thistle12.00%34.00%16.00%15.00%7.00%9.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Airdrieonians—1.00%—2.00%2.00%6.00%7.00%19.00%23.00%40.00%
Greenock Morton1.00%11.00%12.00%13.00%14.00%20.00%19.00%8.00%1.00%1.00%
Dunfermline Athletic—4.00%12.00%12.00%11.00%10.00%15.00%20.00%12.00%4.00%
Ayr United—7.00%8.00%4.00%16.00%19.00%10.00%13.00%14.00%9.00%
Queens Park1.00%5.00%14.00%9.00%15.00%12.00%12.00%16.00%8.00%8.00%
Inverness CT—9.00%15.00%15.00%19.00%13.00%12.00%5.00%10.00%2.00%
Arbroath————2.00%5.00%14.00%14.00%30.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Dundee United 79.00% 20.00% 1.00% —
Partick Thistle 12.00% 65.00% 23.00% —
Raith Rovers 7.00% 62.00% 30.00% 1.00%
Greenock Morton 1.00% 36.00% 62.00% 1.00%
Inverness CT — 39.00% 59.00% 2.00%
Dunfermline Athletic — 28.00% 68.00% 4.00%
Queens Park 1.00% 28.00% 63.00% 8.00%
Ayr United — 19.00% 72.00% 9.00%
Arbroath — — 65.00% 35.00%
Airdrieonians — 3.00% 57.00% 40.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2023-08-04 Dundee United L 0-443.2 1436 1504 32.84% 28.31% 38.85%-0.40 -27.4 0
2023-08-04 @ Arbroath W 4-043.2 1504 1436 38.85% 28.31% 32.84%+0.40 +27.4 3
2023-08-05 Airdrieonians W 2-143.6 1445 1328 56.89% 25.12% 17.99%+0.65 +4.3 3
2023-08-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-243.6 1328 1445 17.99% 25.12% 56.89%-0.65 -4.3 0
2023-08-05 Ayr United W 3-151.1 1465 1484 39.63% 28.28% 32.09%-0.12 +12.3 3
2023-08-05 @ Greenock Morton L 1-351.1 1484 1465 32.09% 28.28% 39.63%+0.12 -12.3 0
2023-08-05 Queens Park L 1-258.0 1490 1471 44.87% 27.82% 27.31%+0.10 -9.1 0
2023-08-05 @ Inverness CT W 2-158.0 1471 1490 27.31% 27.82% 44.87%-0.10 +9.1 3
2023-08-05 Raith Rovers D 2-264.8 1497 1433 50.67% 26.82% 22.51%+0.35 -1.0 1
2023-08-05 @ Partick Thistle D 2-264.8 1433 1497 22.51% 26.82% 50.67%-0.35 +1.0 1
2023-08-12 Arbroath W 2-148.2 1480 1409 51.56% 26.62% 21.82%+0.39 +5.2 6
2023-08-12 @ Queens Park L 1-248.2 1409 1480 21.82% 26.62% 51.56%-0.39 -5.2 0
2023-08-12 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-161.1 1531 1449 52.88% 26.29% 20.82%+0.46 -1.5 4
2023-08-12 @ Dundee United D 1-161.1 1449 1531 20.82% 26.29% 52.88%-0.46 +1.5 4
2023-08-12 Greenock Morton W 3-258.7 1433 1477 36.15% 28.37% 35.48%-0.26 +7.2 4
2023-08-12 @ Raith Rovers L 2-358.7 1477 1433 35.48% 28.37% 36.15%+0.26 -7.2 3
2023-08-12 Inverness CT W 1-048.1 1472 1481 41.14% 28.19% 30.68%-0.06 +7.3 3
2023-08-12 @ Ayr United L 0-148.1 1481 1472 30.68% 28.19% 41.14%+0.06 -7.3 0
2023-08-12 Partick Thistle W 2-155.4 1324 1496 21.07% 26.38% 52.55%-0.99 +10.3 3
2023-08-12 @ Airdrieonians L 1-255.4 1496 1324 52.55% 26.38% 21.07%+0.99 -10.3 1
2023-08-19 Queens Park L 0-146.0 1404 1485 30.97% 28.21% 40.82%-0.48 -7.3 0
2023-08-19 @ Arbroath W 1-046.0 1485 1404 40.82% 28.21% 30.97%+0.48 +7.3 9
2023-08-26 Arbroath L 0-346.3 1470 1396 51.87% 26.54% 21.59%+0.41 -29.8 3
2023-08-26 @ Greenock Morton W 3-046.3 1396 1470 21.59% 26.54% 51.87%-0.41 +29.8 3
2023-08-26 Dundee United L 0-346.8 1479 1530 35.24% 28.37% 36.39%-0.30 -22.1 3
2023-08-26 @ Ayr United W 3-046.8 1530 1479 36.39% 28.37% 35.24%+0.30 +22.1 7
2023-08-26 Inverness CT W 2-154.2 1334 1473 24.22% 27.25% 48.53%-0.80 +9.7 6
2023-08-26 @ Airdrieonians L 1-254.2 1473 1334 48.53% 27.25% 24.22%+0.80 -9.7 0
2023-08-26 Queens Park W 3-151.7 1485 1493 41.30% 28.18% 30.53%-0.05 +11.8 4
2023-08-26 @ Partick Thistle L 1-351.7 1493 1485 30.53% 28.18% 41.30%+0.05 -11.8 9
2023-08-26 Raith Rovers L 0-149.8 1450 1441 43.64% 27.96% 28.40%+0.04 -9.5 4
2023-08-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-049.8 1441 1450 28.40% 27.96% 43.64%-0.04 +9.5 7
2023-09-02 Airdrieonians W 2-035.5 1552 1344 66.42% 21.26% 12.31%+1.17 +5.8 10
2023-09-02 @ Dundee United L 0-235.5 1344 1552 12.31% 21.26% 66.42%-1.17 -5.8 6
2023-09-02 Ayr United W 2-152.1 1426 1457 37.95% 28.34% 33.70%-0.19 +7.4 6
2023-09-02 @ Arbroath L 1-252.1 1457 1426 33.70% 28.34% 37.95%+0.19 -7.4 3
2023-09-02 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-158.0 1464 1441 45.38% 27.75% 26.87%+0.12 -0.8 1
2023-09-02 @ Inverness CT D 1-158.0 1441 1464 26.87% 27.75% 45.38%-0.12 +0.8 5
2023-09-02 Partick Thistle L 1-449.0 1440 1497 34.33% 28.36% 37.32%-0.33 -18.3 3
2023-09-02 @ Greenock Morton W 4-149.0 1497 1440 37.32% 28.36% 34.33%+0.33 +18.3 7
2023-09-02 Queens Park W 3-258.8 1450 1481 38.05% 28.34% 33.61%-0.19 +7.0 10
2023-09-02 @ Raith Rovers L 2-358.8 1481 1450 33.61% 28.34% 38.05%+0.19 -7.0 9
2023-09-15 Partick Thistle L 0-444.2 1450 1515 33.13% 28.33% 38.54%-0.38 -27.6 3
2023-09-15 @ Ayr United W 4-044.2 1515 1450 38.54% 28.33% 33.13%+0.38 +27.6 10
2023-09-16 Airdrieonians W 4-033.7 1433 1338 54.46% 25.86% 19.68%+0.53 +17.9 9
2023-09-16 @ Arbroath L 0-433.7 1338 1433 19.68% 25.86% 54.46%-0.53 -17.9 6
2023-09-16 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-248.3 1474 1442 46.59% 27.58% 25.83%+0.17 -18.8 9
2023-09-16 @ Queens Park W 2-048.3 1442 1474 25.83% 27.58% 46.59%-0.17 +18.8 8
2023-09-16 Greenock Morton D 1-161.7 1558 1422 58.98% 24.40% 16.62%+0.76 -2.0 11
2023-09-16 @ Dundee United D 1-161.7 1422 1558 16.62% 24.40% 58.98%-0.76 +2.0 4
2023-09-16 Inverness CT W 1-046.8 1457 1463 41.53% 28.16% 30.32%-0.04 +7.2 13
2023-09-16 @ Raith Rovers L 0-146.8 1463 1457 30.32% 28.16% 41.53%+0.04 -7.2 1
2023-09-22 Ayr United L 2-553.2 1455 1422 46.68% 27.56% 25.76%+0.17 -20.0 9
2023-09-22 @ Queens Park W 5-253.2 1422 1455 25.76% 27.56% 46.68%-0.17 +19.9 6
2023-09-23 Arbroath L 0-351.2 1543 1451 54.00% 25.99% 20.01%+0.51 -30.8 10
2023-09-23 @ Partick Thistle W 3-051.2 1451 1543 20.01% 25.99% 54.00%-0.51 +30.8 12
2023-09-23 Dundee United L 0-149.6 1456 1555 28.68% 28.00% 43.33%-0.58 -6.9 1
2023-09-23 @ Inverness CT W 1-049.6 1555 1456 43.33% 28.00% 28.68%+0.58 +6.9 14
2023-09-23 Greenock Morton W 3-146.6 1461 1424 47.19% 27.48% 25.33%+0.20 +10.2 11
2023-09-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-346.6 1424 1461 25.33% 27.48% 47.19%-0.20 -10.2 4
2023-09-23 Raith Rovers W 1-048.4 1320 1464 23.71% 27.13% 49.16%-0.83 +10.4 9
2023-09-23 @ Airdrieonians L 0-148.4 1464 1320 49.16% 27.13% 23.71%+0.83 -10.4 13
2023-09-30 Airdrieonians L 0-148.5 1414 1331 53.03% 26.25% 20.72%+0.46 -11.1 4
2023-09-30 @ Greenock Morton W 1-048.5 1331 1414 20.72% 26.25% 53.03%-0.46 +11.1 12
2023-09-30 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-042.4 1512 1471 47.81% 27.38% 24.81%+0.22 +16.8 13
2023-09-30 @ Partick Thistle L 0-342.4 1471 1512 24.81% 27.38% 47.81%-0.22 -16.8 11
2023-09-30 Inverness CT L 2-362.5 1482 1449 46.78% 27.55% 25.67%+0.18 -8.9 12
2023-09-30 @ Arbroath W 3-262.5 1449 1482 25.67% 27.55% 46.78%-0.18 +8.9 4
2023-09-30 Queens Park W 4-145.0 1562 1435 58.09% 24.72% 17.19%+0.71 +10.1 17
2023-09-30 @ Dundee United L 1-445.0 1435 1562 17.19% 24.72% 58.09%-0.71 -10.1 9
2023-09-30 Raith Rovers L 1-254.6 1442 1454 40.71% 28.22% 31.07%-0.08 -8.4 6
2023-09-30 @ Ayr United W 2-154.6 1454 1442 31.07% 28.22% 40.71%+0.08 +8.5 16
2023-10-07 Ayr United L 1-248.1 1342 1434 29.60% 28.09% 42.31%-0.54 -6.7 12
2023-10-07 @ Airdrieonians W 2-148.1 1434 1342 42.31% 28.09% 29.60%+0.54 +6.7 9
2023-10-07 Dundee United D 1-162.7 1462 1573 27.45% 27.84% 44.72%-0.64 +0.8 17
2023-10-07 @ Raith Rovers D 1-162.7 1573 1462 44.72% 27.84% 27.45%+0.64 -0.8 18
2023-10-07 Greenock Morton D 0-051.3 1425 1403 45.30% 27.76% 26.94%+0.11 -0.9 10
2023-10-07 @ Queens Park D 0-051.3 1403 1425 26.94% 27.76% 45.30%-0.11 +0.9 5
2023-10-07 Partick Thistle D 0-056.3 1458 1529 32.33% 28.29% 39.38%-0.42 +0.3 5
2023-10-07 @ Inverness CT D 0-056.3 1529 1458 39.38% 28.29% 32.33%+0.42 -0.3 14
2023-10-20 Queens Park D 1-154.2 1335 1424 30.01% 28.13% 41.86%-0.52 +0.5 13
2023-10-20 @ Airdrieonians D 1-154.2 1424 1335 41.86% 28.13% 30.01%+0.52 -0.5 11
2023-10-21 Ayr United L 0-150.0 1454 1441 44.14% 27.91% 27.95%+0.07 -9.5 11
2023-10-21 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-050.0 1441 1454 27.95% 27.91% 44.14%-0.07 +9.5 12
2023-10-21 Dundee United L 0-550.5 1529 1572 36.25% 28.37% 35.38%-0.26 -36.3 14
2023-10-21 @ Partick Thistle W 5-050.5 1572 1529 35.38% 28.37% 36.25%+0.26 +36.3 21
2023-10-27 Arbroath W 6-043.5 1608 1473 58.92% 24.42% 16.66%+0.76 +22.3 24
2023-10-27 @ Dundee United L 0-643.5 1473 1608 16.66% 24.42% 58.92%-0.76 -22.3 12
2023-10-27 Partick Thistle D 2-263.9 1423 1492 32.65% 28.31% 39.04%-0.40 +0.2 12
2023-10-27 @ Queens Park D 2-263.9 1492 1423 39.04% 28.31% 32.65%+0.40 -0.2 15
2023-10-28 Airdrieonians W 1-038.4 1458 1335 57.57% 24.90% 17.54%+0.69 +4.5 8
2023-10-28 @ Inverness CT L 0-138.4 1335 1458 17.54% 24.90% 57.57%-0.69 -4.5 13
2023-10-28 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-045.4 1463 1444 44.85% 27.82% 27.33%+0.10 +6.6 20
2023-10-28 @ Raith Rovers L 0-145.4 1444 1463 27.33% 27.82% 44.85%-0.10 -6.7 11
2023-10-28 Greenock Morton L 0-149.9 1450 1404 48.46% 27.26% 24.28%+0.25 -10.3 12
2023-10-28 @ Ayr United W 1-049.9 1404 1450 24.28% 27.26% 48.46%-0.25 +10.3 8
2023-10-31 Ayr United D 2-264.9 1492 1440 49.21% 27.12% 23.67%+0.29 -0.9 16
2023-10-31 @ Partick Thistle D 2-264.9 1440 1492 23.67% 27.12% 49.21%-0.29 +0.9 13
2023-10-31 Dundee United L 0-237.8 1331 1630 12.36% 21.30% 66.34%-1.72 -5.8 13
2023-10-31 @ Airdrieonians W 2-037.8 1630 1331 66.34% 21.30% 12.36%+1.72 +5.8 27
2023-10-31 Raith Rovers L 1-252.4 1414 1470 34.44% 28.36% 37.19%-0.33 -7.5 8
2023-10-31 @ Greenock Morton W 2-152.4 1470 1414 37.19% 28.36% 34.44%+0.33 +7.5 23
2023-11-03 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-252.3 1407 1438 37.95% 28.34% 33.71%-0.19 -8.0 8
2023-11-03 @ Greenock Morton W 2-152.3 1438 1407 33.71% 28.34% 37.95%+0.19 +8.0 14
2023-11-04 Airdrieonians D 1-156.4 1477 1325 60.78% 23.72% 15.50%+0.86 -2.2 24
2023-11-04 @ Raith Rovers D 1-156.4 1325 1477 15.50% 23.72% 60.78%-0.86 +2.2 14
2023-11-04 Inverness CT D 1-166.5 1636 1463 63.01% 22.81% 14.18%+0.98 -2.4 28
2023-11-04 @ Dundee United D 1-166.5 1463 1636 14.18% 22.81% 63.01%-0.98 +2.4 9
2023-11-04 Partick Thistle L 1-352.2 1451 1491 36.65% 28.37% 34.98%-0.24 -13.5 12
2023-11-04 @ Arbroath W 3-152.2 1491 1451 34.98% 28.37% 36.65%+0.24 +13.5 19
2023-11-04 Queens Park D 2-262.4 1441 1424 44.62% 27.85% 27.53%+0.09 -0.6 14
2023-11-04 @ Ayr United D 2-262.4 1424 1441 27.53% 27.85% 44.62%-0.09 +0.6 13
2023-11-10 Dundee United L 1-254.2 1446 1634 19.67% 25.86% 54.47%-1.08 -4.7 14
2023-11-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-154.2 1634 1446 54.47% 25.86% 19.67%+1.08 +4.7 31
2023-11-11 Arbroath W 2-043.8 1327 1437 27.45% 27.84% 44.71%-0.64 +18.2 17
2023-11-11 @ Airdrieonians L 0-243.8 1437 1327 44.71% 27.84% 27.45%+0.64 -18.2 12
2023-11-11 Ayr United W 3-147.8 1465 1440 45.65% 27.72% 26.63%+0.13 +10.6 12
2023-11-11 @ Inverness CT L 1-347.8 1440 1465 26.63% 27.72% 45.65%-0.13 -10.6 14
2023-11-11 Greenock Morton W 2-147.4 1505 1399 55.72% 25.49% 18.79%+0.59 +4.5 22
2023-11-11 @ Partick Thistle L 1-247.4 1399 1505 18.79% 25.49% 55.72%-0.59 -4.5 8
2023-11-11 Raith Rovers L 2-358.2 1424 1475 35.14% 28.37% 36.49%-0.30 -7.2 13
2023-11-11 @ Queens Park W 3-258.2 1475 1424 36.49% 28.37% 35.14%+0.30 +7.2 27
2023-11-18 Inverness CT D 1-158.2 1441 1476 37.50% 28.36% 34.15%-0.21 -0.1 15
2023-11-18 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-158.2 1476 1441 34.15% 28.36% 37.50%+0.21 +0.2 13
2023-11-28 Arbroath W 3-039.0 1441 1419 45.25% 27.77% 26.98%+0.11 +18.0 18
2023-11-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-339.0 1419 1441 26.98% 27.77% 45.25%-0.11 -18.0 12
2023-12-02 Airdrieonians W 2-144.1 1509 1346 62.01% 23.23% 14.76%+0.92 +3.5 25
2023-12-02 @ Partick Thistle L 1-244.1 1346 1509 14.76% 23.23% 62.01%-0.92 -3.5 17
2023-12-02 Raith Rovers L 1-256.9 1476 1482 41.40% 28.17% 30.43%-0.05 -8.6 13
2023-12-02 @ Inverness CT W 2-156.9 1482 1476 30.43% 28.17% 41.40%+0.05 +8.6 30
2023-12-08 Partick Thistle W 4-363.8 1491 1513 39.27% 28.30% 32.44%-0.14 +6.6 33
2023-12-08 @ Raith Rovers L 3-463.8 1513 1491 32.44% 28.30% 39.27%+0.14 -6.6 25
2023-12-09 Ayr United W 1-044.7 1638 1430 66.53% 21.21% 12.26%+1.18 +3.1 34
2023-12-09 @ Dundee United L 0-144.7 1430 1638 12.26% 21.21% 66.53%-1.18 -3.0 14
2023-12-09 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-247.6 1342 1459 26.65% 27.72% 45.64%-0.68 -6.2 17
2023-12-09 @ Airdrieonians W 2-147.6 1459 1342 45.64% 27.72% 26.65%+0.68 +6.1 21
2023-12-09 Greenock Morton L 1-252.6 1401 1394 43.29% 28.00% 28.71%+0.03 -8.9 12
2023-12-09 @ Arbroath W 2-152.6 1394 1401 28.71% 28.00% 43.29%-0.03 +8.9 11
2023-12-09 Inverness CT L 1-447.5 1417 1467 35.26% 28.37% 36.37%-0.30 -18.6 13
2023-12-09 @ Queens Park W 4-147.5 1467 1417 36.37% 28.37% 35.26%+0.30 +18.6 16
2023-12-12 Inverness CT W 2-154.4 1403 1486 30.80% 28.20% 41.01%-0.48 +8.5 14
2023-12-12 @ Greenock Morton L 1-254.4 1486 1403 41.01% 28.20% 30.80%+0.48 -8.5 16
2023-12-13 Raith Rovers L 1-250.5 1392 1498 28.02% 27.92% 44.06%-0.61 -6.4 12
2023-12-13 @ Arbroath W 2-150.5 1498 1392 44.06% 27.92% 28.02%+0.61 +6.4 36
2023-12-16 Airdrieonians W 1-038.9 1426 1336 53.89% 26.02% 20.08%+0.51 +5.1 17
2023-12-16 @ Ayr United L 0-138.9 1336 1426 20.08% 26.02% 53.89%-0.51 -5.1 17
2023-12-16 Arbroath L 1-256.9 1477 1386 53.98% 26.00% 20.02%+0.51 -10.6 16
2023-12-16 @ Inverness CT W 2-156.9 1386 1477 20.02% 26.00% 53.98%-0.51 +10.6 15
2023-12-16 Partick Thistle L 1-256.0 1465 1506 36.55% 28.37% 35.08%-0.25 -7.8 21
2023-12-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-156.0 1506 1465 35.08% 28.37% 36.55%+0.25 +7.8 28
2023-12-16 Queens Park W 1-042.8 1411 1398 44.08% 27.91% 28.01%+0.06 +6.8 17
2023-12-16 @ Greenock Morton L 0-142.8 1398 1411 28.01% 27.91% 44.08%-0.06 -6.8 13
2023-12-16 Raith Rovers L 0-162.2 1642 1504 59.22% 24.31% 16.47%+0.77 -12.1 34
2023-12-16 @ Dundee United W 1-062.2 1504 1642 16.47% 24.31% 59.22%-0.77 +12.1 39
2023-12-22 Ayr United D 4-471.4 1516 1432 53.16% 26.22% 20.62%+0.47 -0.8 40
2023-12-22 @ Raith Rovers D 4-471.4 1432 1516 20.62% 26.22% 53.16%-0.47 +0.8 18
2023-12-22 Dundee United D 0-058.9 1392 1629 15.94% 24.00% 60.06%-1.37 +2.4 14
2023-12-22 @ Queens Park D 0-058.9 1629 1392 60.06% 24.00% 15.94%+1.37 -2.4 35
2023-12-23 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-156.3 1397 1457 33.75% 28.35% 37.91%-0.36 +0.2 16
2023-12-23 @ Arbroath D 1-156.3 1457 1397 37.91% 28.35% 33.75%+0.36 -0.2 22
2023-12-23 Greenock Morton D 0-049.5 1331 1418 30.21% 28.15% 41.64%-0.51 +0.6 18
2023-12-23 @ Airdrieonians D 0-049.5 1418 1331 41.64% 28.15% 30.21%+0.51 -0.6 18
2023-12-23 Inverness CT D 1-160.9 1514 1467 48.59% 27.24% 24.17%+0.26 -1.1 29
2023-12-23 @ Partick Thistle D 1-160.9 1467 1514 24.17% 27.24% 48.59%-0.26 +1.1 17
2023-12-29 Partick Thistle W 3-045.2 1627 1513 56.61% 25.21% 18.17%+0.64 +12.7 38
2023-12-29 @ Dundee United L 0-345.2 1513 1627 18.17% 25.21% 56.61%-0.64 -12.7 29
2023-12-30 Airdrieonians L 1-253.1 1394 1331 50.52% 26.85% 22.63%+0.35 -10.0 14
2023-12-30 @ Queens Park W 2-153.1 1331 1394 22.63% 26.85% 50.52%-0.35 +10.0 21
2023-12-30 Arbroath D 2-264.8 1515 1397 57.11% 25.05% 17.84%+0.66 -1.4 41
2023-12-30 @ Raith Rovers D 2-264.8 1397 1515 17.84% 25.05% 57.11%-0.66 +1.4 17
2023-12-30 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-263.1 1432 1457 38.87% 28.31% 32.82%-0.15 -0.2 19
2023-12-30 @ Ayr United D 2-263.1 1457 1432 32.82% 28.31% 38.87%+0.15 +0.2 23
2023-12-30 Greenock Morton D 0-053.1 1468 1418 48.94% 27.17% 23.88%+0.27 -1.3 18
2023-12-30 @ Inverness CT D 0-053.1 1418 1468 23.88% 27.17% 48.94%-0.27 +1.3 19
2024-01-02 Ayr United W 3-040.2 1419 1432 40.48% 28.23% 31.29%-0.09 +20.2 22
2024-01-02 @ Greenock Morton L 0-340.2 1432 1419 31.29% 28.23% 40.48%+0.09 -20.2 19
2024-01-02 Dundee United L 0-340.6 1398 1640 15.68% 23.84% 60.48%-1.39 -11.0 17
2024-01-02 @ Arbroath W 3-040.6 1640 1398 60.48% 23.84% 15.68%+1.39 +10.9 41
2024-01-02 Inverness CT W 2-045.3 1341 1466 25.73% 27.56% 46.71%-0.72 +18.8 24
2024-01-02 @ Airdrieonians L 0-245.3 1466 1341 46.71% 27.56% 25.73%+0.72 -18.8 18
2024-01-02 Queens Park W 3-251.6 1500 1384 56.85% 25.13% 18.01%+0.65 +4.1 32
2024-01-02 @ Partick Thistle L 2-351.6 1384 1500 18.01% 25.13% 56.85%-0.65 -4.1 14
2024-01-02 Raith Rovers L 1-255.4 1457 1514 34.35% 28.36% 37.29%-0.33 -7.5 23
2024-01-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-155.4 1514 1457 37.29% 28.36% 34.35%+0.33 +7.5 44
2024-01-05 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-152.2 1380 1450 32.49% 28.30% 39.21%-0.41 +8.2 17
2024-01-05 @ Queens Park L 1-252.2 1450 1380 39.21% 28.30% 32.49%+0.41 -8.2 23
2024-01-06 Arbroath W 4-036.1 1504 1387 56.96% 25.10% 17.94%+0.66 +16.4 35
2024-01-06 @ Partick Thistle L 0-436.1 1387 1504 17.94% 25.10% 56.96%-0.66 -16.4 17
2024-01-06 Greenock Morton L 2-372.4 1651 1439 66.78% 21.09% 12.13%+1.19 -11.9 41
2024-01-06 @ Dundee United W 3-272.4 1439 1651 12.13% 21.09% 66.78%-1.19 +11.9 25
2024-01-06 Inverness CT L 1-349.7 1412 1448 37.31% 28.36% 34.33%-0.21 -13.7 19
2024-01-06 @ Ayr United W 3-149.7 1448 1412 34.33% 28.36% 37.31%+0.21 +13.7 21
2024-01-06 Raith Rovers W 1-051.4 1360 1521 22.05% 26.69% 51.26%-0.93 +10.8 27
2024-01-06 @ Airdrieonians L 0-151.4 1521 1360 51.26% 26.69% 22.05%+0.93 -10.8 44
2024-01-12 Dundee United L 0-149.8 1461 1639 20.57% 26.20% 53.23%-1.02 -5.2 21
2024-01-12 @ Inverness CT W 1-049.8 1639 1461 53.23% 26.20% 20.57%+1.02 +5.2 44
2024-01-13 Ayr United D 0-049.8 1371 1398 38.48% 28.33% 33.19%-0.17 -0.3 18
2024-01-13 @ Arbroath D 0-049.8 1398 1371 33.19% 28.33% 38.48%+0.17 +0.2 20
2024-01-13 Partick Thistle D 1-160.2 1451 1521 32.53% 28.30% 39.17%-0.41 +0.3 26
2024-01-13 @ Greenock Morton D 1-160.2 1521 1451 39.17% 28.30% 32.53%+0.41 -0.3 36
2024-01-13 Queens Park L 1-258.7 1511 1388 57.55% 24.90% 17.55%+0.69 -11.1 44
2024-01-13 @ Raith Rovers W 2-158.7 1388 1511 17.55% 24.90% 57.55%-0.69 +11.2 20
2024-01-23 Arbroath W 2-038.3 1398 1370 46.08% 27.65% 26.27%+0.15 +12.2 23
2024-01-23 @ Ayr United L 0-238.3 1370 1398 26.27% 27.65% 46.08%-0.15 -12.1 18
2024-01-27 Arbroath W 3-035.0 1451 1358 54.17% 25.95% 19.89%+0.52 +13.9 29
2024-01-27 @ Greenock Morton L 0-335.0 1358 1451 19.89% 25.95% 54.17%-0.52 -13.8 18
2024-01-27 Ayr United L 1-252.2 1399 1411 40.74% 28.21% 31.04%-0.08 -8.5 20
2024-01-27 @ Queens Park W 2-152.2 1411 1399 31.04% 28.21% 40.74%+0.08 +8.4 26
2024-01-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-062.0 1644 1442 65.89% 21.52% 12.60%+1.14 -2.9 45
2024-01-27 @ Dundee United D 0-062.0 1442 1644 12.60% 21.52% 65.89%-1.14 +2.9 24
2024-01-27 Inverness CT L 2-363.7 1499 1456 48.05% 27.34% 24.61%+0.24 -9.1 44
2024-01-27 @ Raith Rovers W 3-263.7 1456 1499 24.61% 27.34% 48.05%-0.24 +9.1 24
2024-01-27 Partick Thistle D 1-157.8 1371 1520 23.18% 27.00% 49.82%-0.86 +1.2 28
2024-01-27 @ Airdrieonians D 1-157.8 1520 1371 49.82% 27.00% 23.18%+0.86 -1.2 37
2024-02-03 Dundee United L 1-252.3 1419 1641 17.02% 24.63% 58.35%-1.28 -4.1 26
2024-02-03 @ Ayr United W 2-152.3 1641 1419 58.35% 24.63% 17.02%+1.28 +4.1 48
2024-02-03 Greenock Morton L 0-544.6 1445 1465 39.46% 28.29% 32.25%-0.13 -38.6 24
2024-02-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 5-044.6 1465 1445 32.25% 28.29% 39.46%+0.13 +38.6 32
2024-02-03 Queens Park L 0-150.8 1465 1391 51.97% 26.52% 21.51%+0.41 -10.9 24
2024-02-03 @ Inverness CT W 1-050.8 1391 1465 21.51% 26.52% 51.97%-0.41 +10.9 23
2024-02-10 Queens Park L 0-342.5 1406 1402 42.90% 28.04% 29.06%+0.01 -25.6 24
2024-02-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-042.5 1402 1406 29.06% 28.04% 42.90%-0.01 +25.6 26
2024-02-16 Dundee United W 2-165.5 1490 1645 22.64% 26.86% 50.50%-0.89 +10.0 47
2024-02-16 @ Raith Rovers L 1-265.5 1645 1490 50.50% 26.86% 22.64%+0.89 -10.0 48
2024-02-17 Arbroath D 1-153.8 1380 1344 47.11% 27.50% 25.39%+0.19 -1.0 25
2024-02-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-153.8 1344 1380 25.39% 27.50% 47.11%-0.19 +1.0 19
2024-02-17 Ayr United L 2-355.5 1372 1415 36.29% 28.37% 35.34%-0.26 -7.4 28
2024-02-17 @ Airdrieonians W 3-255.5 1415 1372 35.34% 28.37% 36.29%+0.26 +7.4 29
2024-02-17 Greenock Morton D 0-054.3 1427 1504 31.63% 28.25% 40.12%-0.45 +0.4 27
2024-02-17 @ Queens Park D 0-054.3 1504 1427 40.12% 28.25% 31.63%+0.45 -0.4 33
2024-02-17 Partick Thistle D 3-370.0 1454 1519 33.20% 28.33% 38.47%-0.38 +0.1 25
2024-02-17 @ Inverness CT D 3-370.0 1519 1454 38.47% 28.33% 33.20%+0.38 -0.1 38
2024-02-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-356.3 1519 1379 59.44% 24.23% 16.32%+0.78 -19.8 38
2024-02-23 @ Partick Thistle W 3-156.3 1379 1519 16.32% 24.23% 59.44%-0.78 +19.8 28
2024-02-24 Airdrieonians W 2-145.3 1503 1365 59.33% 24.28% 16.40%+0.78 +4.0 36
2024-02-24 @ Greenock Morton L 1-245.3 1365 1503 16.40% 24.28% 59.33%-0.78 -4.0 28
2024-02-24 Inverness CT D 1-155.1 1345 1455 27.56% 27.85% 44.58%-0.63 +0.8 20
2024-02-24 @ Arbroath D 1-155.1 1455 1345 44.58% 27.85% 27.56%+0.63 -0.8 26
2024-02-24 Queens Park W 3-147.3 1635 1428 66.40% 21.28% 12.33%+1.17 +5.0 51
2024-02-24 @ Dundee United L 1-347.3 1428 1635 12.33% 21.28% 66.40%-1.17 -5.0 27
2024-02-24 Raith Rovers L 1-252.7 1422 1500 31.44% 28.24% 40.31%-0.45 -7.0 29
2024-02-24 @ Ayr United W 2-152.7 1500 1422 40.31% 28.24% 31.44%+0.45 +7.0 50
2024-02-27 Airdrieonians L 0-256.4 1640 1361 72.93% 17.90% 9.17%+1.58 -26.7 51
2024-02-27 @ Dundee United W 2-056.4 1361 1640 9.17% 17.90% 72.93%-1.58 +26.7 31
2024-02-27 Arbroath W 6-035.6 1423 1346 52.19% 26.47% 21.34%+0.42 +28.2 30
2024-02-27 @ Queens Park L 0-635.6 1346 1423 21.34% 26.47% 52.19%-0.42 -28.2 20
2024-02-27 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-052.2 1454 1399 49.50% 27.07% 23.44%+0.30 -1.3 27
2024-02-27 @ Inverness CT D 0-052.2 1399 1454 23.44% 27.07% 49.50%-0.30 +1.3 29
2024-02-27 Greenock Morton D 0-057.4 1507 1507 42.31% 28.09% 29.59%-0.01 -0.6 51
2024-02-27 @ Raith Rovers D 0-057.4 1507 1507 29.59% 28.09% 42.31%+0.01 +0.6 37
2024-02-27 Partick Thistle W 4-363.2 1415 1499 30.67% 28.19% 41.14%-0.49 +7.9 32
2024-02-27 @ Ayr United L 3-463.2 1499 1415 41.14% 28.19% 30.67%+0.49 -7.9 38
2024-03-01 Raith Rovers W 3-261.1 1318 1507 19.61% 25.84% 54.56%-1.09 +10.1 23
2024-03-01 @ Arbroath L 2-361.1 1507 1318 54.56% 25.84% 19.61%+1.09 -10.1 51
2024-03-02 Ayr United W 2-041.6 1401 1423 39.16% 28.30% 32.54%-0.14 +14.4 32
2024-03-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-241.6 1423 1401 32.54% 28.30% 39.16%+0.14 -14.3 32
2024-03-02 Dundee United D 1-165.2 1491 1614 26.06% 27.62% 46.32%-0.71 +0.9 39
2024-03-02 @ Partick Thistle D 1-165.2 1614 1491 46.32% 27.62% 26.06%+0.71 -0.9 52
2024-03-02 Inverness CT L 0-250.7 1508 1452 49.60% 27.04% 23.35%+0.30 -19.8 37
2024-03-02 @ Greenock Morton W 2-050.7 1452 1508 23.35% 27.04% 49.60%-0.30 +19.8 30
2024-03-02 Queens Park D 1-155.9 1387 1451 33.39% 28.33% 38.27%-0.37 +0.2 32
2024-03-02 @ Airdrieonians D 1-155.9 1451 1387 38.27% 28.33% 33.39%+0.37 -0.2 31
2024-03-05 Airdrieonians L 0-245.0 1415 1388 45.98% 27.67% 26.35%+0.14 -18.6 32
2024-03-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-045.0 1388 1415 26.35% 27.67% 45.98%-0.14 +18.6 35
2024-03-05 Dundee United L 0-151.8 1488 1613 25.81% 27.57% 46.62%-0.72 -6.4 37
2024-03-05 @ Greenock Morton W 1-051.8 1613 1488 46.62% 27.57% 25.81%+0.72 +6.3 55
2024-03-09 Airdrieonians D 0-053.0 1472 1406 50.92% 26.76% 22.32%+0.37 -1.5 31
2024-03-09 @ Inverness CT D 0-053.0 1406 1472 22.32% 26.76% 50.92%-0.37 +1.5 36
2024-03-09 Arbroath W 4-032.9 1619 1328 73.89% 17.36% 8.75%+1.65 +7.3 58
2024-03-09 @ Dundee United L 0-432.9 1328 1619 8.75% 17.36% 73.89%-1.65 -7.3 23
2024-03-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-038.8 1497 1396 55.01% 25.70% 19.28%+0.56 +9.2 54
2024-03-09 @ Raith Rovers L 0-238.8 1396 1497 19.28% 25.70% 55.01%-0.56 -9.3 32
2024-03-09 Partick Thistle D 2-264.9 1451 1492 36.47% 28.37% 35.16%-0.25 -0.0 32
2024-03-09 @ Queens Park D 2-264.9 1492 1451 35.16% 28.37% 36.47%+0.25 +0.0 40
2024-03-12 Raith Rovers L 0-152.7 1492 1506 40.46% 28.23% 31.31%-0.09 -8.9 40
2024-03-12 @ Partick Thistle W 1-052.7 1506 1492 31.31% 28.23% 40.46%+0.09 +8.9 57
2024-03-15 Dundee United W 3-160.6 1387 1626 15.84% 23.94% 60.22%-1.37 +20.0 35
2024-03-15 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-360.6 1626 1387 60.22% 23.94% 15.84%+1.37 -20.0 58
2024-03-16 Arbroath W 5-241.5 1408 1321 53.46% 26.14% 20.40%+0.48 +10.4 39
2024-03-16 @ Airdrieonians L 2-541.5 1321 1408 20.40% 26.14% 53.46%-0.48 -10.3 23
2024-03-16 Ayr United L 1-256.6 1471 1409 50.41% 26.88% 22.71%+0.34 -10.0 31
2024-03-16 @ Inverness CT W 2-156.6 1409 1471 22.71% 26.88% 50.41%-0.34 +10.0 35
2024-03-16 Greenock Morton W 2-153.6 1483 1482 42.53% 28.07% 29.39%+0.00 +6.6 43
2024-03-16 @ Partick Thistle L 1-253.6 1482 1483 29.39% 28.07% 42.53%+0.00 -6.6 37
2024-03-16 Raith Rovers D 0-055.5 1451 1515 33.30% 28.33% 38.37%-0.38 +0.2 33
2024-03-16 @ Queens Park D 0-055.5 1515 1451 38.37% 28.33% 33.30%+0.38 -0.2 58
2024-03-23 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-151.4 1475 1407 51.17% 26.71% 22.12%+0.38 -10.8 37
2024-03-23 @ Greenock Morton W 1-051.4 1407 1475 22.12% 26.71% 51.17%-0.38 +10.7 38
2024-03-23 Inverness CT D 1-165.0 1606 1461 60.07% 24.00% 15.93%+0.82 -2.1 59
2024-03-23 @ Dundee United D 1-165.0 1461 1606 15.93% 24.00% 60.07%-0.82 +2.1 32
2024-03-23 Partick Thistle L 0-139.8 1310 1490 20.38% 26.13% 53.49%-1.03 -5.2 23
2024-03-23 @ Arbroath W 1-039.8 1490 1310 53.49% 26.13% 20.38%+1.03 +5.2 46
2024-03-23 Queens Park L 1-253.0 1419 1451 37.85% 28.35% 33.80%-0.19 -8.0 35
2024-03-23 @ Ayr United W 2-153.0 1451 1419 33.80% 28.35% 37.85%+0.19 +8.0 36
2024-03-29 Airdrieonians W 2-149.6 1411 1418 41.33% 28.17% 30.50%-0.05 +6.8 38
2024-03-29 @ Ayr United L 1-249.6 1418 1411 30.50% 28.17% 41.33%+0.05 -6.8 39
2024-03-30 Dunfermline Athletic L 2-351.5 1305 1418 27.16% 27.80% 45.05%-0.65 -5.9 23
2024-03-30 @ Arbroath W 3-251.5 1418 1305 45.05% 27.80% 27.16%+0.65 +5.9 41
2024-03-30 Inverness CT W 1-046.6 1495 1463 46.64% 27.57% 25.79%+0.17 +6.3 49
2024-03-30 @ Partick Thistle L 0-146.6 1463 1495 25.79% 27.57% 46.64%-0.17 -6.4 32
2024-03-30 Queens Park W 2-043.4 1464 1459 43.08% 28.02% 28.90%+0.02 +13.1 40
2024-03-30 @ Greenock Morton L 0-243.4 1459 1464 28.90% 28.02% 43.08%-0.02 -13.1 36
2024-03-30 Raith Rovers W 2-047.2 1604 1514 53.79% 26.05% 20.16%+0.50 +9.6 62
2024-03-30 @ Dundee United L 0-247.2 1514 1604 20.16% 26.05% 53.79%-0.50 -9.7 58
2024-04-02 Airdrieonians L 1-246.2 1299 1411 27.24% 27.81% 44.96%-0.65 -6.2 23
2024-04-02 @ Arbroath W 2-146.2 1411 1299 44.96% 27.81% 27.24%+0.65 +6.2 42
2024-04-06 Arbroath W 2-141.7 1457 1293 61.97% 23.25% 14.79%+0.92 +3.5 35
2024-04-06 @ Inverness CT L 1-241.7 1293 1457 14.79% 23.25% 61.97%-0.92 -3.5 23
2024-04-06 Ayr United W 2-148.8 1505 1418 53.47% 26.14% 20.39%+0.48 +4.9 61
2024-04-06 @ Raith Rovers L 1-248.8 1418 1505 20.39% 26.14% 53.47%-0.48 -4.9 38
2024-04-06 Dundee United L 0-544.1 1446 1614 21.41% 26.49% 52.11%-0.97 -23.8 36
2024-04-06 @ Queens Park W 5-044.1 1614 1446 52.11% 26.49% 21.41%+0.97 +23.8 65
2024-04-06 Greenock Morton W 3-151.0 1418 1478 33.86% 28.35% 37.79%-0.35 +13.8 45
2024-04-06 @ Airdrieonians L 1-351.0 1478 1418 37.79% 28.35% 33.86%+0.35 -13.8 40
2024-04-06 Partick Thistle D 1-158.6 1424 1502 31.46% 28.24% 40.29%-0.45 +0.4 42
2024-04-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-158.6 1502 1424 40.29% 28.24% 31.46%+0.45 -0.4 50
2024-04-09 Airdrieonians L 1-356.3 1510 1431 52.42% 26.41% 21.17%+0.44 -17.9 61
2024-04-09 @ Raith Rovers W 3-156.3 1431 1510 21.17% 26.41% 52.42%-0.44 +17.9 48
2024-04-09 Greenock Morton D 1-156.9 1413 1464 35.15% 28.37% 36.48%-0.30 +0.1 39
2024-04-09 @ Ayr United D 1-156.9 1464 1413 36.48% 28.37% 35.15%+0.30 -0.1 41
2024-04-12 Dundee United L 1-450.3 1464 1638 20.86% 26.31% 52.83%-1.00 -12.2 41
2024-04-12 @ Greenock Morton W 4-150.3 1638 1464 52.83% 26.31% 20.86%+1.00 +12.2 68
2024-04-13 Arbroath W 5-032.2 1413 1290 57.65% 24.87% 17.48%+0.69 +19.7 42
2024-04-13 @ Ayr United L 0-532.2 1290 1413 17.48% 24.87% 57.65%-0.69 -19.7 23
2024-04-13 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-149.5 1449 1424 45.69% 27.71% 26.60%+0.13 +6.1 51
2024-04-13 @ Airdrieonians L 1-249.5 1424 1449 26.60% 27.71% 45.69%-0.13 -6.1 42
2024-04-13 Inverness CT L 0-147.6 1422 1460 36.96% 28.37% 34.67%-0.23 -8.4 36
2024-04-13 @ Queens Park W 1-047.6 1460 1422 34.67% 28.37% 36.96%+0.23 +8.4 38
2024-04-13 Partick Thistle D 0-056.6 1492 1501 41.02% 28.19% 30.78%-0.06 -0.5 62
2024-04-13 @ Raith Rovers D 0-056.6 1501 1492 30.78% 28.19% 41.02%+0.06 +0.5 51
2024-04-19 Raith Rovers L 0-150.9 1468 1491 39.14% 28.30% 32.56%-0.14 -8.7 38
2024-04-19 @ Inverness CT W 1-050.9 1491 1468 32.56% 28.30% 39.14%+0.14 +8.7 65
2024-04-20 Airdrieonians W 4-040.9 1502 1455 48.45% 27.27% 24.29%+0.25 +21.6 54
2024-04-20 @ Partick Thistle L 0-440.9 1455 1502 24.29% 27.27% 48.45%-0.25 -21.6 51
2024-04-20 Ayr United W 1-045.0 1650 1433 67.32% 20.83% 11.85%+1.23 +2.9 71
2024-04-20 @ Dundee United L 0-145.0 1433 1650 11.85% 20.83% 67.32%-1.23 -2.9 42
2024-04-20 Greenock Morton L 1-243.7 1270 1451 20.21% 26.07% 53.72%-1.05 -4.8 23
2024-04-20 @ Arbroath W 2-143.7 1451 1270 53.72% 26.07% 20.21%+1.05 +4.8 44
2024-04-20 Queens Park D 0-051.3 1418 1414 42.93% 28.04% 29.04%+0.01 -0.7 43
2024-04-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-051.3 1414 1418 29.04% 28.04% 42.93%-0.01 +0.7 37
2024-04-26 Dundee United D 0-061.0 1434 1653 17.24% 24.74% 58.02%-1.26 +2.2 52
2024-04-26 @ Airdrieonians D 0-061.0 1653 1434 58.02% 24.74% 17.24%+1.26 -2.2 72
2024-04-27 Ayr United D 0-055.8 1523 1430 54.24% 25.93% 19.83%+0.52 -1.8 55
2024-04-27 @ Partick Thistle D 0-055.8 1430 1523 19.83% 25.93% 54.24%-0.52 +1.8 43
2024-04-27 Inverness CT D 1-157.0 1417 1460 36.36% 28.37% 35.27%-0.25 -0.0 44
2024-04-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-157.0 1460 1417 35.27% 28.37% 36.36%+0.25 +0.0 39
2024-04-27 Queens Park L 0-534.3 1265 1414 23.21% 27.01% 49.78%-0.86 -25.6 23
2024-04-27 @ Arbroath W 5-034.3 1414 1265 49.78% 27.01% 23.21%+0.86 +25.6 40
2024-04-27 Raith Rovers D 0-055.2 1456 1500 36.17% 28.37% 35.46%-0.26 -0.0 45
2024-04-27 @ Greenock Morton D 0-055.2 1500 1456 35.46% 28.37% 36.17%+0.26 +0.0 66
2024-05-03 Airdrieonians W 2-042.0 1440 1436 42.85% 28.04% 29.11%+0.01 +13.2 43
2024-05-03 @ Queens Park L 0-242.0 1436 1440 29.11% 28.04% 42.85%-0.01 -13.2 52
2024-05-03 Arbroath W 5-028.6 1500 1239 71.29% 18.79% 9.92%+1.47 +10.5 69
2024-05-03 @ Raith Rovers L 0-528.6 1239 1500 9.92% 18.79% 71.29%-1.47 -10.5 23
2024-05-03 Dunfermline Athletic D 3-366.0 1431 1417 44.24% 27.89% 27.86%+0.07 -0.5 44
2024-05-03 @ Ayr United D 3-366.0 1417 1431 27.86% 27.89% 44.24%-0.07 +0.5 45
2024-05-03 Greenock Morton W 3-149.0 1460 1456 42.80% 28.05% 29.15%+0.01 +11.4 42
2024-05-03 @ Inverness CT L 1-349.0 1456 1460 29.15% 28.05% 42.80%-0.01 -11.4 45
2024-05-03 Partick Thistle W 4-150.7 1651 1521 58.30% 24.65% 17.06%+0.73 +10.1 75
2024-05-03 @ Dundee United L 1-450.7 1521 1651 17.06% 24.65% 58.30%-0.73 -10.1 55

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2024-02-27 9.17% Airdrieonians 1361 2 @ Dundee United 1640 0
2 2024-01-06 12.13% Greenock Morton 1439 3 @ Dundee United 1651 2
3 2024-03-15 15.84% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1387 3 Dundee United 1626 1
4 2024-02-23 16.32% Dunfermline Athletic 1379 3 @ Partick Thistle 1519 1
5 2023-12-16 16.47% Raith Rovers 1504 1 @ Dundee United 1642 0
6 2024-01-13 17.55% Queens Park 1388 2 @ Raith Rovers 1511 1
7 2024-03-01 19.61% @ Arbroath 1318 3 Raith Rovers 1507 2
8 2023-09-23 20.01% Arbroath 1451 3 @ Partick Thistle 1543 0
9 2023-12-16 20.02% Arbroath 1386 2 @ Inverness CT 1477 1
10 2023-09-30 20.72% Airdrieonians 1331 1 @ Greenock Morton 1414 0
11 2023-08-12 21.07% @ Airdrieonians 1324 2 Partick Thistle 1496 1
12 2024-04-09 21.17% Airdrieonians 1431 3 @ Raith Rovers 1510 1
13 2024-02-03 21.51% Queens Park 1391 1 @ Inverness CT 1465 0
14 2023-08-26 21.59% Arbroath 1396 3 @ Greenock Morton 1470 0
15 2024-01-06 22.05% @ Airdrieonians 1360 1 Raith Rovers 1521 0
16 2024-03-23 22.12% Dunfermline Athletic 1407 1 @ Greenock Morton 1475 0
17 2023-12-30 22.63% Airdrieonians 1331 2 @ Queens Park 1394 1
18 2024-02-16 22.64% @ Raith Rovers 1490 2 Dundee United 1645 1
19 2024-03-16 22.71% Ayr United 1409 2 @ Inverness CT 1471 1
20 2024-03-02 23.35% Inverness CT 1452 2 @ Greenock Morton 1508 0
21 2023-09-23 23.71% @ Airdrieonians 1320 1 Raith Rovers 1464 0
22 2023-08-26 24.22% @ Airdrieonians 1334 2 Inverness CT 1473 1
23 2023-10-28 24.28% Greenock Morton 1404 1 @ Ayr United 1450 0
24 2024-01-27 24.61% Inverness CT 1456 3 @ Raith Rovers 1499 2
25 2023-09-30 25.67% Inverness CT 1449 3 @ Arbroath 1482 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-02-03 38.61 Greenock Morton 5 1465 32.25% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1445 39.46% 28.29%
2 2023-10-21 36.28 Dundee United 5 1572 35.38% @ Partick Thistle 0 1529 36.25% 28.37%
3 2023-09-23 30.75 Arbroath 3 1451 20.01% @ Partick Thistle 0 1543 54.00% 25.99%
4 2023-08-26 29.76 Arbroath 3 1396 21.59% @ Greenock Morton 0 1470 51.87% 26.54%
5 2024-02-27 28.24 @ Queens Park 6 1423 52.19% Arbroath 0 1346 21.34% 26.47%
6 2023-09-15 27.58 Partick Thistle 4 1515 38.54% @ Ayr United 0 1450 33.13% 28.33%
7 2023-08-04 27.40 Dundee United 4 1504 38.85% @ Arbroath 0 1436 32.84% 28.31%
8 2024-02-27 26.67 Airdrieonians 2 1361 9.17% @ Dundee United 0 1640 72.93% 17.90%
9 2024-04-27 25.61 Queens Park 5 1414 49.78% @ Arbroath 0 1265 23.21% 27.01%
10 2024-02-10 25.56 Queens Park 3 1402 29.06% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1406 42.90% 28.04%
11 2024-04-06 23.84 Dundee United 5 1614 52.11% @ Queens Park 0 1446 21.41% 26.49%
12 2023-10-27 22.28 @ Dundee United 6 1608 58.92% Arbroath 0 1473 16.66% 24.42%
13 2023-08-26 22.08 Dundee United 3 1530 36.39% @ Ayr United 0 1479 35.24% 28.37%
14 2024-04-20 21.60 @ Partick Thistle 4 1502 48.45% Airdrieonians 0 1455 24.29% 27.27%
15 2024-01-02 20.24 @ Greenock Morton 3 1419 40.48% Ayr United 0 1432 31.29% 28.23%
16 2024-03-15 20.05 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1387 15.84% Dundee United 1 1626 60.22% 23.94%
17 2023-09-22 19.95 Ayr United 5 1422 25.76% @ Queens Park 2 1455 46.68% 27.56%
18 2024-02-23 19.84 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1379 16.32% @ Partick Thistle 1 1519 59.44% 24.23%
19 2024-03-02 19.76 Inverness CT 2 1452 23.35% @ Greenock Morton 0 1508 49.60% 27.04%
20 2024-04-13 19.69 @ Ayr United 5 1413 57.65% Arbroath 0 1290 17.48% 24.87%
21 2024-01-02 18.82 @ Airdrieonians 2 1341 25.73% Inverness CT 0 1466 46.71% 27.56%
22 2023-09-16 18.78 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1442 25.83% @ Queens Park 0 1474 46.59% 27.58%
23 2023-12-09 18.63 Inverness CT 4 1467 36.37% @ Queens Park 1 1417 35.26% 28.37%
24 2024-03-05 18.59 Airdrieonians 2 1388 26.35% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1415 45.98% 27.67%
25 2023-09-02 18.27 Partick Thistle 4 1497 37.32% @ Greenock Morton 1 1440 34.33% 28.36%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-01-06 72.4 Greenock Morton 3 1439 12.13% @ Dundee United 2 1651 66.78% 21.09%
2 2023-12-22 71.4 @ Raith Rovers 4 1516 53.16% Ayr United 4 1432 20.62% 26.22%
3 2024-02-17 70.0 @ Inverness CT 3 1454 33.20% Partick Thistle 3 1519 38.47% 28.33%
4 2023-11-04 66.5 @ Dundee United 1 1636 63.01% Inverness CT 1 1463 14.18% 22.81%
5 2024-05-03 66.0 @ Ayr United 3 1431 44.24% Dunfermline Athletic 3 1417 27.86% 27.89%
6 2024-02-16 65.5 @ Raith Rovers 2 1490 22.64% Dundee United 1 1645 50.50% 26.86%
7 2024-03-02 65.2 @ Partick Thistle 1 1491 26.06% Dundee United 1 1614 46.32% 27.62%
8 2024-03-23 65.0 @ Dundee United 1 1606 60.07% Inverness CT 1 1461 15.93% 24.00%
9 2023-10-31 64.9 @ Partick Thistle 2 1492 49.21% Ayr United 2 1440 23.67% 27.12%
10 2024-03-09 64.9 @ Queens Park 2 1451 36.47% Partick Thistle 2 1492 35.16% 28.37%
11 2023-08-05 64.8 @ Partick Thistle 2 1497 50.67% Raith Rovers 2 1433 22.51% 26.82%
12 2023-12-30 64.8 @ Raith Rovers 2 1515 57.11% Arbroath 2 1397 17.84% 25.05%
13 2023-10-27 63.9 @ Queens Park 2 1423 32.65% Partick Thistle 2 1492 39.04% 28.31%
14 2023-12-08 63.8 @ Raith Rovers 4 1491 39.27% Partick Thistle 3 1513 32.44% 28.30%
15 2024-01-27 63.7 Inverness CT 3 1456 24.61% @ Raith Rovers 2 1499 48.05% 27.34%
16 2024-02-27 63.2 @ Ayr United 4 1415 30.67% Partick Thistle 3 1499 41.14% 28.19%
17 2023-12-30 63.1 @ Ayr United 2 1432 38.87% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1457 32.82% 28.31%
18 2023-10-07 62.7 @ Raith Rovers 1 1462 27.45% Dundee United 1 1573 44.72% 27.84%
19 2023-09-30 62.5 Inverness CT 3 1449 25.67% @ Arbroath 2 1482 46.78% 27.55%
20 2023-11-04 62.4 @ Ayr United 2 1441 44.62% Queens Park 2 1424 27.53% 27.85%
21 2023-12-16 62.2 Raith Rovers 1 1504 16.47% @ Dundee United 0 1642 59.22% 24.31%
22 2024-01-27 62.0 @ Dundee United 0 1644 65.89% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1442 12.60% 21.52%
23 2023-09-16 61.7 @ Dundee United 1 1558 58.98% Greenock Morton 1 1422 16.62% 24.40%
24 2023-08-12 61.1 @ Dundee United 1 1531 52.88% Dunfermline Athletic 1 1449 20.82% 26.29%
25 2024-03-01 61.1 @ Arbroath 3 1318 19.61% Raith Rovers 2 1507 54.56% 25.84%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-05-03 28.6 @ Raith Rovers 5 1500 71.29% Arbroath 0 1239 9.92% 18.79%
2 2024-04-13 32.2 @ Ayr United 5 1413 57.65% Arbroath 0 1290 17.48% 24.87%
3 2024-03-09 32.9 @ Dundee United 4 1619 73.89% Arbroath 0 1328 8.75% 17.36%
4 2023-09-16 33.7 @ Arbroath 4 1433 54.46% Airdrieonians 0 1338 19.68% 25.86%
5 2024-04-27 34.3 Queens Park 5 1414 49.78% @ Arbroath 0 1265 23.21% 27.01%
6 2024-01-27 35.0 @ Greenock Morton 3 1451 54.17% Arbroath 0 1358 19.89% 25.95%
7 2023-09-02 35.5 @ Dundee United 2 1552 66.42% Airdrieonians 0 1344 12.31% 21.26%
8 2024-02-27 35.6 @ Queens Park 6 1423 52.19% Arbroath 0 1346 21.34% 26.47%
9 2024-01-06 36.1 @ Partick Thistle 4 1504 56.96% Arbroath 0 1387 17.94% 25.10%
10 2023-10-31 37.8 Dundee United 2 1630 66.34% @ Airdrieonians 0 1331 12.36% 21.30%
11 2024-01-23 38.3 @ Ayr United 2 1398 46.08% Arbroath 0 1370 26.27% 27.65%
12 2023-10-28 38.4 @ Inverness CT 1 1458 57.57% Airdrieonians 0 1335 17.54% 24.90%
13 2024-03-09 38.8 @ Raith Rovers 2 1497 55.01% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1396 19.28% 25.70%
14 2023-12-16 38.9 @ Ayr United 1 1426 53.89% Airdrieonians 0 1336 20.08% 26.02%
15 2023-11-28 39.0 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1441 45.25% Arbroath 0 1419 26.98% 27.77%
16 2024-03-23 39.8 Partick Thistle 1 1490 53.49% @ Arbroath 0 1310 20.38% 26.13%
17 2024-01-02 40.2 @ Greenock Morton 3 1419 40.48% Ayr United 0 1432 31.29% 28.23%
18 2024-01-02 40.6 Dundee United 3 1640 60.48% @ Arbroath 0 1398 15.68% 23.84%
19 2024-04-20 40.9 @ Partick Thistle 4 1502 48.45% Airdrieonians 0 1455 24.29% 27.27%
20 2024-03-16 41.5 @ Airdrieonians 5 1408 53.46% Arbroath 2 1321 20.40% 26.14%
21 2024-03-02 41.6 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1401 39.16% Ayr United 0 1423 32.54% 28.30%
22 2024-04-06 41.7 @ Inverness CT 2 1457 61.97% Arbroath 1 1293 14.79% 23.25%
23 2024-05-03 42.0 @ Queens Park 2 1440 42.85% Airdrieonians 0 1436 29.11% 28.04%
24 2023-09-30 42.4 @ Partick Thistle 3 1512 47.81% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1471 24.81% 27.38%
25 2024-02-10 42.5 Queens Park 3 1402 29.06% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1406 42.90% 28.04%