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2024-25 Championship Season

180 games

Final

Promoted

Falkirk

73 pts

Relegated

Hamilton Academical

21 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Falkirk

12.72 points above expected

73 points · 60.28 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Queens Park

14.86 points below expected

35 points · 49.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Falkirk Promoted 36 22 7 7 73 72 33 +39 60.28 +12.72
2 Livingston 36 20 10 6 70 55 27 +28 58.40 +11.60
3 Ayr United 36 18 9 9 63 57 39 +18 58.28 +4.72
4 Partick Thistle 36 15 10 11 55 43 38 +5 55.65 -0.65
5 Raith Rovers 36 15 8 13 53 47 43 +4 52.71 +0.29
6 Greenock Morton 36 12 12 12 48 42 48 -6 48.87 -0.87
7 Dunfermline Athletic 36 9 8 19 35 28 43 -15 44.39 -9.39
8 Queens Park 36 9 8 19 35 36 55 -19 49.86 -14.86
9 Airdrieonians 36 7 8 21 29 34 62 -28 36.06 -7.06
10 Hamilton Academical* Relegated 36 10 6 20 21 38 64 -26 22.68 -1.68

* Point deductions: Hamilton Academical (-15 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Falkirk 73 60.28 +12.72
2 Livingston 70 58.40 +11.60
3 Ayr United 63 58.28 +4.72
4 Raith Rovers 53 52.71 +0.29
5 Partick Thistle 55 55.65 -0.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Queens Park 35 49.86 -14.86
2 Dunfermline Athletic 35 44.39 -9.39
3 Airdrieonians 29 36.06 -7.06
4 Hamilton Academical 21 22.68 -1.68
5 Greenock Morton 48 48.87 -0.87

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Falkirk 5 Aug 2 – Sep 14 1 in 137
2 Ayr United 4 Aug 3 – Aug 24 1 in 22
3 Raith Rovers 3 Dec 14 – Dec 28 1 in 16
4 Greenock Morton 3 Mar 8 – Mar 22 1 in 15
5 Livingston 4 Apr 5 – Apr 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Queens Park 7 Mar 4 – Apr 12 1 in 812
2 Airdrieonians 7 Oct 19 – Dec 7 1 in 80
3 Livingston 3 Dec 21 – Jan 4 1 in 25
4 Raith Rovers 3 Aug 24 – Sep 13 1 in 21
5 Hamilton Academical 4 Jan 10 – Feb 1 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Greenock Morton 11 Nov 8 – Feb 18 1 in 428
2 Raith Rovers 10 Mar 5 – May 2 1 in 194
3 Livingston 10 Aug 3 – Oct 26 1 in 84
4 Airdrieonians 5 Jan 25 – Feb 25 1 in 51
5 Ayr United 8 Aug 3 – Sep 28 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Airdrieonians 19 Aug 9 – Jan 14 1 in 518
2 Queens Park 10 Mar 4 – May 2 1 in 87
3 Partick Thistle 6 Jan 25 – Feb 28 1 in 29
4 Raith Rovers 4 Aug 24 – Sep 21 1 in 12
5 Greenock Morton 5 Aug 3 – Sep 14 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Falkirk 1577 73 -5 7 9.4 -2.4
Livingston 1567 70 +38 12 9.3 +2.7
Ayr United 1506 63 -25 5 7.6 -2.6
Partick Thistle 1503 55 -2 7 7.5 -0.5
Raith Rovers 1506 53 +36 11 7.6 +3.4
Greenock Morton 1444 48 -3 7 6.0 +1.0
Hamilton Academical 1336 36 +4 7 4.5 +2.5
Dunfermline Athletic 1382 35 -10 5 6.9 -1.9
Queens Park 1356 35 -31 2 5.4 -3.4
Airdrieonians 1370 29 -2 5 5.5 -0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AIR AU DA FAL GM HA LIV PT QP RR
Airdrieonians —
0-0-4
4.03
1-2-1
4.69
0-0-4
3.31
0-2-2
4.47
1-1-2
5.08
0-1-3
3.14
1-1-2
3.44
2-0-2
4.15
2-1-1
4.11
Ayr United
4-0-0
7.13
 —
3-1-0
6.97
1-2-1
5.11
1-2-1
6.73
3-1-0
7.27
1-0-3
5.37
1-1-2
5.65
2-2-0
6.42
2-0-2
5.95
Dunfermline Athletic
1-2-1
6.43
0-1-3
4.18
 —
0-1-3
4.20
1-1-2
5.01
1-0-3
6.14
2-1-1
3.98
1-1-2
4.13
1-1-2
5.07
2-0-2
4.65
Falkirk
4-0-0
7.91
1-2-1
6.00
3-1-0
6.97
 —
4-0-0
6.65
3-1-0
7.84
0-1-3
5.91
2-1-1
5.85
3-1-0
6.36
2-0-2
6.52
Greenock Morton
2-2-0
6.67
1-2-1
4.40
2-1-1
6.10
0-0-4
4.50
 —
2-1-1
6.74
0-2-2
4.35
1-2-1
4.58
2-0-2
5.40
2-2-0
5.02
Hamilton Academical
2-1-1
6.05
0-1-3
3.91
3-0-1
4.98
0-1-3
3.36
1-1-2
4.39
 —
0-0-4
3.78
2-0-2
3.82
2-1-1
4.60
0-1-3
4.19
Livingston
3-1-0
8.07
3-0-1
5.76
1-1-2
7.17
3-1-0
5.20
2-2-0
6.79
4-0-0
7.39
 —
1-2-1
6.02
1-2-1
6.49
2-1-1
6.24
Partick Thistle
2-1-1
7.74
2-1-1
5.47
2-1-1
7.02
1-1-2
5.27
1-2-1
6.55
2-0-2
7.35
1-2-1
5.11
 —
4-0-0
6.05
0-2-2
6.05
Queens Park
2-0-2
7.00
0-2-2
4.72
2-1-1
6.05
0-1-3
4.76
2-0-2
5.72
1-1-2
6.53
1-2-1
4.66
0-0-4
5.08
 —
1-1-2
5.00
Raith Rovers
1-1-2
7.03
2-0-2
5.17
2-0-2
6.47
2-0-2
4.63
0-2-2
6.11
3-1-0
6.96
1-1-2
4.90
2-2-0
5.07
2-1-1
6.12
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +11.8
Allowed 0.85 -13.5
Differential 0.96 +7.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%9.44%8.33%4.44%0.83%1.39%32.78%
19.44%9.44%8.33%1.39%0.56%0.56%29.72%
28.33%8.33%3.89%2.22%—0.56%23.33%
34.44%1.39%2.22%2.22%——10.28%
40.83%0.56%————1.39%
5+1.39%0.56%0.56%———2.50%
Total32.78%29.72%23.33%10.28%1.39%2.50%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 1.26 +0.00
SD 1.21 1.21 1.84
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%13.89%19.44%5.56%2.78%2.78%47.22%
15.56%8.33%8.33%—2.78%—25.00%
2—8.33%8.33%2.78%——19.44%
32.78%——2.78%——5.56%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total13.89%30.56%36.11%11.11%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.72 -0.78
SD 1.17 1.19 1.87
CV 1.24 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%5.56%8.33%——2.78%19.44%
113.89%16.67%8.33%———38.89%
211.11%2.78%5.56%———19.44%
35.56%—8.33%———13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+2.78%—2.78%———5.56%
Total36.11%27.78%33.33%——2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.08 +0.50
SD 1.34 1.08 1.84
CV 0.85 1.00 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%19.44%19.44%5.56%——58.33%
18.33%5.56%8.33%———22.22%
22.78%2.78%————5.56%
32.78%2.78%2.78%2.78%——11.11%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%30.56%8.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.78 1.19 -0.42
SD 1.15 0.95 1.52
CV 1.48 0.80 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%————13.89%
18.33%5.56%5.56%2.78%——22.22%
219.44%8.33%5.56%——2.78%36.11%
35.56%5.56%2.78%2.78%——16.67%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+5.56%—2.78%———8.33%
Total47.22%27.78%16.67%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.92 +1.08
SD 1.43 1.16 1.87
CV 0.72 1.26 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%2.78%2.78%—5.56%36.11%
12.78%8.33%5.56%———16.67%
216.67%11.11%8.33%5.56%——41.67%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%30.56%19.44%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.33 -0.17
SD 1.00 1.43 1.78
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%13.89%13.89%——38.89%
111.11%2.78%5.56%8.33%—2.78%30.56%
2—8.33%5.56%5.56%——19.44%
32.78%—2.78%2.78%——8.33%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%30.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.78 -0.72
SD 1.09 1.27 1.80
CV 1.04 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%8.33%2.78%2.78%——27.78%
18.33%11.11%2.78%———22.22%
25.56%19.44%————25.00%
313.89%2.78%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total44.44%41.67%8.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.75 +0.78
SD 1.28 0.84 1.59
CV 0.84 1.12 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%——22.22%
116.67%13.89%13.89%—2.78%—47.22%
28.33%11.11%2.78%——2.78%25.00%
32.78%—————2.78%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total38.89%33.33%19.44%2.78%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.06 +0.14
SD 1.01 1.19 1.55
CV 0.84 1.13 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%2.78%30.56%
18.33%11.11%22.22%——2.78%44.44%
28.33%5.56%2.78%5.56%——22.22%
3———————
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%25.00%27.78%11.11%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.53 -0.53
SD 0.89 1.38 1.81
CV 0.89 0.91 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%11.11%5.56%2.78%—33.33%
111.11%11.11%2.78%2.78%——27.78%
211.11%5.56%—2.78%——19.44%
38.33%2.78%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total36.11%30.56%13.89%16.67%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 1.19 +0.11
SD 1.26 1.19 1.91
CV 0.97 1.00 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Falkirk 1577 73 60.28 +12.72 98.0% 38 46 56 61 66 72 77
Livingston 1567 70 58.40 +11.60 98.0% 40 47 54 59 63 69 75
Ayr United 1506 63 58.28 +4.72 73.0% 36 45 52 57 64 72 76
Raith Rovers 1506 53 52.71 +0.29 57.0% 32 37 48 52 58 68 78
Partick Thistle 1503 55 55.65 -0.65 49.0% 38 43 50 56 62 68 70
Greenock Morton 1444 48 48.87 -0.87 47.0% 28 31 44 49 54 62 71
Dunfermline Athletic 1382 35 44.39 -9.39 11.0% 26 32 39 44 50 57 63
Airdrieonians 1370 29 36.06 -7.06 16.0% 17 25 31 36 41 48 57
Queens Park 1356 35 49.86 -14.86 2.0% 28 38 44 50 56 63 67
Hamilton Academical 1336 21 22.68 -1.68 45.0% 0 12 17 22 29 33 37

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+19.44%
Clear Edge
47.78%23.89%28.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
170 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
068.43500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.34 goals
Neutral
-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Falkirk, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.08/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6.24 * Some Luck: 6.24 to 9.37 * Lucky: 9.37 to 12.49 * Wild Swing: 12.49 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.16 * Close: 1.16 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.24 points
Some Luck
07.8120
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
01.463
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
98.00%
Falkirk
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.00%
Queens Park
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 1
As Expected
00.11

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Top-Heavy
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 89.12
2.23
Wide Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
68%
Clear Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.61
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.22
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.33
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%29%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Shaky Favorites
0%24%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.060
Well Within Noise
00.1170.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Falkirk37.00%19.00%16.00%7.00%8.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Livingston15.00%28.00%20.00%16.00%11.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%——
Ayr United23.00%16.00%13.00%15.00%17.00%7.00%6.00%3.00%——
Partick Thistle10.00%15.00%17.00%13.00%17.00%15.00%9.00%4.00%——
Raith Rovers8.00%11.00%14.00%11.00%15.00%15.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%1.00%
Greenock Morton3.00%4.00%6.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%26.00%12.00%9.00%—
Dunfermline Athletic1.00%2.00%2.00%8.00%5.00%18.00%15.00%36.00%12.00%1.00%
Queens Park3.00%5.00%11.00%15.00%12.00%15.00%20.00%13.00%6.00%—
Airdrieonians——1.00%1.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%21.00%55.00%11.00%
Hamilton Academical———————1.00%12.00%87.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
Falkirk 37.00% 42.00% 21.00% —
Ayr United 23.00% 44.00% 33.00% —
Livingston 15.00% 64.00% 21.00% —
Partick Thistle 10.00% 45.00% 45.00% —
Raith Rovers 8.00% 36.00% 55.00% 1.00%
Greenock Morton 3.00% 24.00% 73.00% —
Queens Park 3.00% 31.00% 66.00% —
Dunfermline Athletic 1.00% 12.00% 86.00% 1.00%
Airdrieonians — 2.00% 87.00% 11.00%
Hamilton Academical — — 13.00% 87.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2024-08-02 Queens Park W 2-152.1 1435 1461 43.39% 22.24% 34.37%+0.25 +5.6 3
2024-08-02 @ Falkirk L 1-252.1 1461 1435 34.37% 22.24% 43.39%-0.25 -5.6 0
2024-08-03 Ayr United L 0-243.5 1403 1445 41.01% 22.31% 36.68%+0.16 -12.9 0
2024-08-03 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-043.5 1445 1403 36.68% 22.31% 41.01%-0.16 +12.9 3
2024-08-03 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-040.8 1471 1436 51.44% 21.65% 26.91%+0.61 +9.1 3
2024-08-03 @ Livingston L 0-240.8 1436 1471 26.91% 21.65% 51.44%-0.61 -9.1 0
2024-08-03 Greenock Morton D 0-058.0 1502 1455 52.91% 21.47% 25.62%+0.68 -1.1 1
2024-08-03 @ Partick Thistle D 0-058.0 1455 1502 25.62% 21.47% 52.91%-0.68 +1.1 1
2024-08-03 Raith Rovers W 1-049.2 1439 1501 38.16% 22.32% 39.52%+0.04 +6.6 3
2024-08-03 @ Airdrieonians L 0-149.2 1501 1439 39.52% 22.32% 38.16%-0.04 -6.6 0
2024-08-09 Airdrieonians W 5-040.1 1458 1446 48.43% 21.94% 29.62%+0.47 +23.1 6
2024-08-09 @ Ayr United L 0-540.1 1446 1458 29.62% 21.94% 48.43%-0.47 -23.1 3
2024-08-09 Livingston D 1-162.0 1455 1480 43.38% 22.24% 34.38%+0.25 -0.3 1
2024-08-09 @ Queens Park D 1-162.0 1480 1455 34.38% 22.24% 43.38%-0.25 +0.3 4
2024-08-10 Falkirk L 0-245.1 1427 1441 44.85% 22.18% 32.97%+0.32 -13.8 0
2024-08-10 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-045.1 1441 1427 32.97% 22.18% 44.85%-0.32 +13.8 6
2024-08-10 Hamilton Academical D 0-054.5 1456 1390 55.17% 21.15% 23.68%+0.79 -1.3 2
2024-08-10 @ Greenock Morton D 0-054.5 1390 1456 23.68% 21.15% 55.17%-0.79 +1.3 1
2024-08-10 Partick Thistle W 1-048.8 1494 1501 45.99% 22.12% 31.89%+0.37 +5.6 3
2024-08-10 @ Raith Rovers L 0-148.8 1501 1494 31.89% 22.12% 45.99%-0.37 -5.6 1
2024-08-17 Hamilton Academical W 3-252.1 1481 1391 57.96% 20.67% 21.37%+0.93 +3.5 9
2024-08-17 @ Ayr United L 2-352.1 1391 1481 21.37% 20.67% 57.96%-0.93 -3.5 1
2024-08-24 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-043.5 1388 1413 43.43% 22.24% 34.33%+0.26 +5.9 4
2024-08-24 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-143.5 1413 1388 34.33% 22.24% 43.43%-0.26 -5.9 0
2024-08-24 Greenock Morton D 1-162.1 1480 1455 50.23% 21.78% 27.99%+0.55 -0.8 5
2024-08-24 @ Livingston D 1-162.1 1455 1480 27.99% 21.78% 50.23%-0.55 +0.8 3
2024-08-24 Partick Thistle W 2-154.6 1455 1495 41.27% 22.30% 36.43%+0.17 +5.9 9
2024-08-24 @ Falkirk L 1-254.6 1495 1455 36.43% 22.30% 41.27%-0.17 -5.9 1
2024-08-24 Queens Park L 0-244.7 1423 1455 42.42% 22.27% 35.30%+0.21 -13.2 3
2024-08-24 @ Airdrieonians W 2-044.7 1455 1423 35.30% 22.27% 42.42%-0.21 +13.2 4
2024-08-24 Raith Rovers W 2-045.6 1485 1500 44.71% 22.19% 33.10%+0.31 +10.9 12
2024-08-24 @ Ayr United L 0-245.6 1500 1485 33.10% 22.19% 44.71%-0.31 -10.8 3
2024-08-31 Airdrieonians D 2-264.2 1394 1409 44.71% 22.19% 33.11%+0.31 -0.3 5
2024-08-31 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-264.2 1409 1394 33.11% 22.19% 44.71%-0.31 +0.3 4
2024-08-31 Ayr United D 1-160.9 1407 1495 34.45% 22.24% 43.30%-0.12 +0.3 1
2024-08-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.9 1495 1407 43.30% 22.24% 34.45%+0.12 -0.3 13
2024-08-31 Falkirk L 2-361.3 1455 1461 46.10% 22.11% 31.79%+0.37 -6.7 3
2024-08-31 @ Greenock Morton W 3-261.3 1461 1455 31.79% 22.11% 46.10%-0.37 +6.7 12
2024-08-31 Livingston L 0-152.7 1489 1480 48.11% 21.97% 29.92%+0.46 -7.8 3
2024-08-31 @ Raith Rovers W 1-052.7 1480 1489 29.92% 21.97% 48.11%-0.46 +7.8 8
2024-08-31 Queens Park W 3-041.3 1489 1468 49.65% 21.83% 28.52%+0.53 +13.9 4
2024-08-31 @ Partick Thistle L 0-341.3 1468 1489 28.52% 21.83% 49.65%-0.53 -13.9 4
2024-09-13 Raith Rovers W 2-044.8 1407 1481 36.40% 22.30% 41.29%-0.03 +12.9 4
2024-09-13 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-244.8 1481 1407 41.29% 22.30% 36.40%+0.03 -12.9 3
2024-09-14 Falkirk L 0-243.6 1410 1467 38.76% 22.32% 38.92%+0.06 -12.3 4
2024-09-14 @ Airdrieonians W 2-043.6 1467 1410 38.92% 22.32% 38.76%-0.06 +12.3 15
2024-09-14 Greenock Morton W 1-045.1 1454 1449 47.54% 22.01% 30.45%+0.43 +5.4 7
2024-09-14 @ Queens Park L 0-145.1 1449 1454 30.45% 22.01% 47.54%-0.43 -5.4 3
2024-09-14 Hamilton Academical W 3-036.1 1487 1394 58.44% 20.58% 20.98%+0.95 +10.6 11
2024-09-14 @ Livingston L 0-336.1 1394 1487 20.98% 20.58% 58.44%-0.95 -10.6 5
2024-09-14 Partick Thistle D 1-164.4 1495 1503 45.74% 22.13% 32.13%+0.35 -0.5 14
2024-09-14 @ Ayr United D 1-164.4 1503 1495 32.13% 22.13% 45.74%-0.35 +0.5 5
2024-09-21 Airdrieonians W 2-038.4 1443 1397 52.76% 21.49% 25.75%+0.67 +8.8 6
2024-09-21 @ Greenock Morton L 0-238.4 1397 1443 25.75% 21.49% 52.76%-0.67 -8.8 4
2024-09-21 Ayr United D 1-162.7 1459 1495 41.95% 22.29% 35.76%+0.19 -0.2 8
2024-09-21 @ Queens Park D 1-162.7 1495 1459 35.76% 22.29% 41.95%-0.19 +0.2 15
2024-09-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-042.9 1504 1420 57.27% 20.80% 21.93%+0.89 +4.0 8
2024-09-21 @ Partick Thistle L 0-142.9 1420 1504 21.93% 20.80% 57.27%-0.89 -4.0 4
2024-09-21 Hamilton Academical D 3-369.5 1468 1383 57.49% 20.76% 21.75%+0.90 -0.8 4
2024-09-21 @ Raith Rovers D 3-369.5 1383 1468 21.75% 20.76% 57.49%-0.90 +0.8 6
2024-09-28 Airdrieonians W 2-146.8 1498 1389 60.15% 20.23% 19.62%+1.04 +3.4 14
2024-09-28 @ Livingston L 1-246.8 1389 1498 19.62% 20.23% 60.15%-1.04 -3.4 4
2024-09-28 Falkirk W 1-047.3 1468 1480 45.19% 22.16% 32.65%+0.33 +5.7 7
2024-09-28 @ Raith Rovers L 0-147.3 1480 1468 32.65% 22.16% 45.19%-0.33 -5.7 15
2024-09-28 Greenock Morton W 1-045.1 1495 1452 52.39% 21.54% 26.08%+0.65 +4.7 18
2024-09-28 @ Ayr United L 0-145.1 1452 1495 26.08% 21.54% 52.39%-0.65 -4.7 6
2024-09-28 Partick Thistle W 1-050.0 1384 1508 29.94% 21.97% 48.09%-0.32 +7.8 9
2024-09-28 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-150.0 1508 1384 48.09% 21.97% 29.94%+0.32 -7.8 8
2024-09-28 Queens Park L 1-253.4 1416 1459 40.85% 22.31% 36.84%+0.15 -6.4 4
2024-09-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-153.4 1459 1416 36.84% 22.31% 40.85%-0.15 +6.4 11
2024-10-05 Ayr United W 2-045.6 1474 1500 43.33% 22.24% 34.43%+0.25 +11.2 18
2024-10-05 @ Falkirk L 0-245.6 1500 1474 34.43% 22.24% 43.33%-0.25 -11.2 18
2024-10-05 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-157.9 1385 1410 43.49% 22.24% 34.27%+0.26 -0.3 5
2024-10-05 @ Airdrieonians D 1-157.9 1410 1385 34.27% 22.24% 43.49%-0.26 +0.3 5
2024-10-05 Hamilton Academical W 1-041.1 1465 1392 56.15% 20.99% 22.86%+0.83 +4.2 14
2024-10-05 @ Queens Park L 0-141.1 1392 1465 22.86% 20.99% 56.15%-0.83 -4.2 9
2024-10-05 Livingston D 0-059.5 1500 1501 46.62% 22.08% 31.31%+0.39 -0.6 9
2024-10-05 @ Partick Thistle D 0-059.5 1501 1500 31.31% 22.08% 46.62%-0.39 +0.6 15
2024-10-05 Raith Rovers W 2-043.8 1447 1473 43.25% 22.25% 34.50%+0.25 +11.2 9
2024-10-05 @ Greenock Morton L 0-243.8 1473 1447 34.50% 22.25% 43.25%-0.25 -11.2 7
2024-10-08 Livingston D 0-058.9 1485 1502 44.55% 22.19% 33.26%+0.30 -0.4 19
2024-10-08 @ Falkirk D 0-058.9 1502 1485 33.26% 22.19% 44.55%-0.30 +0.4 16
2024-10-12 Falkirk D 1-163.9 1499 1485 48.74% 21.92% 29.34%+0.49 -0.7 10
2024-10-12 @ Partick Thistle D 1-163.9 1485 1499 29.34% 21.92% 48.74%-0.49 +0.7 20
2024-10-18 Falkirk L 1-347.9 1387 1485 33.20% 22.19% 44.62%-0.17 -9.4 9
2024-10-18 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-147.9 1485 1387 44.62% 22.19% 33.20%+0.17 +9.4 23
2024-10-19 Airdrieonians W 2-146.6 1499 1385 60.62% 20.12% 19.26%+1.07 +3.3 13
2024-10-19 @ Partick Thistle L 1-246.6 1385 1499 19.26% 20.12% 60.62%-1.07 -3.4 5
2024-10-19 Greenock Morton D 0-054.8 1410 1459 40.06% 22.32% 37.62%+0.12 -0.1 6
2024-10-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-054.8 1459 1410 37.62% 22.32% 40.06%-0.12 +0.1 10
2024-10-19 Livingston L 1-258.6 1488 1502 44.91% 22.18% 32.91%+0.32 -6.9 18
2024-10-19 @ Ayr United W 2-158.6 1502 1488 32.91% 22.18% 44.91%-0.32 +6.9 19
2024-10-19 Queens Park D 1-161.9 1462 1470 45.81% 22.13% 32.07%+0.36 -0.5 8
2024-10-19 @ Raith Rovers D 1-161.9 1470 1462 32.07% 22.13% 45.81%-0.36 +0.5 15
2024-10-26 Ayr United L 0-144.6 1382 1481 32.97% 22.18% 44.86%-0.18 -5.7 5
2024-10-26 @ Airdrieonians W 1-044.6 1481 1382 44.86% 22.18% 32.97%+0.18 +5.7 21
2024-10-26 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-148.2 1495 1410 57.45% 20.76% 21.78%+0.90 +3.8 26
2024-10-26 @ Falkirk L 1-248.2 1410 1495 21.78% 20.76% 57.45%-0.90 -3.8 6
2024-10-26 Greenock Morton W 3-041.7 1378 1459 35.54% 22.28% 42.18%-0.07 +19.1 12
2024-10-26 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-341.7 1459 1378 42.18% 22.28% 35.54%+0.07 -19.1 10
2024-10-26 Partick Thistle L 0-151.2 1470 1502 42.45% 22.27% 35.27%+0.22 -7.0 15
2024-10-26 @ Queens Park W 1-051.2 1502 1470 35.27% 22.27% 42.45%-0.22 +7.0 16
2024-10-26 Raith Rovers W 2-151.9 1509 1462 52.99% 21.46% 25.55%+0.68 +4.4 22
2024-10-26 @ Livingston L 1-251.9 1462 1509 25.55% 21.46% 52.99%-0.68 -4.4 8
2024-10-29 Airdrieonians W 1-040.2 1457 1376 57.03% 20.84% 22.13%+0.88 +4.1 11
2024-10-29 @ Raith Rovers L 0-140.2 1376 1457 22.13% 20.84% 57.03%-0.88 -4.1 5
2024-10-29 Livingston W 3-045.3 1406 1514 31.95% 22.12% 45.93%-0.23 +20.5 9
2024-10-29 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-345.3 1514 1406 45.93% 22.12% 31.95%+0.23 -20.5 22
2024-10-29 Queens Park L 0-149.1 1440 1463 43.59% 22.23% 34.18%+0.26 -7.2 10
2024-10-29 @ Greenock Morton W 1-049.1 1463 1440 34.18% 22.23% 43.59%-0.26 +7.2 18
2024-11-01 Ayr United W 2-044.7 1461 1487 43.29% 22.25% 34.47%+0.25 +11.2 14
2024-11-01 @ Raith Rovers L 0-244.7 1487 1461 34.47% 22.25% 43.29%-0.25 -11.2 21
2024-11-02 Greenock Morton W 6-039.6 1499 1432 55.26% 21.14% 23.61%+0.79 +22.5 29
2024-11-02 @ Falkirk L 0-639.6 1432 1499 23.61% 21.14% 55.26%-0.79 -22.5 10
2024-11-02 Hamilton Academical L 0-440.2 1372 1397 43.35% 22.24% 34.40%+0.25 -25.5 5
2024-11-02 @ Airdrieonians W 4-040.2 1397 1372 34.40% 22.24% 43.35%-0.25 +25.5 15
2024-11-02 Partick Thistle L 0-147.7 1427 1509 35.30% 22.27% 42.43%-0.08 -6.1 9
2024-11-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.7 1509 1427 42.43% 22.27% 35.30%+0.08 +6.1 19
2024-11-02 Queens Park D 1-163.2 1493 1470 49.85% 21.81% 28.33%+0.54 -0.8 23
2024-11-02 @ Livingston D 1-163.2 1470 1493 28.33% 21.81% 49.85%-0.54 +0.8 19
2024-11-08 Ayr United D 1-160.3 1410 1476 37.56% 22.32% 40.12%+0.01 +0.1 11
2024-11-08 @ Greenock Morton D 1-160.3 1476 1410 40.12% 22.32% 37.56%-0.01 -0.1 22
2024-11-09 Airdrieonians W 2-035.0 1521 1346 66.80% 18.48% 14.73%+1.43 +5.1 32
2024-11-09 @ Falkirk L 0-235.0 1346 1521 14.73% 18.48% 66.80%-1.43 -5.1 5
2024-11-09 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-149.0 1471 1420 53.36% 21.41% 25.23%+0.70 +4.3 22
2024-11-09 @ Queens Park L 1-249.0 1420 1471 25.23% 21.41% 53.36%-0.70 -4.3 9
2024-11-09 Livingston L 1-350.4 1423 1492 37.04% 22.31% 40.65%-0.01 -10.3 15
2024-11-09 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-150.4 1492 1423 40.65% 22.31% 37.04%+0.01 +10.3 26
2024-11-09 Raith Rovers D 1-164.1 1515 1473 52.33% 21.54% 26.12%+0.65 -0.9 20
2024-11-09 @ Partick Thistle D 1-164.1 1473 1515 26.12% 21.54% 52.33%-0.65 +0.9 15
2024-11-16 Airdrieonians W 1-038.7 1416 1341 56.28% 20.97% 22.75%+0.84 +4.2 12
2024-11-16 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-138.7 1341 1416 22.75% 20.97% 56.28%-0.84 -4.2 5
2024-11-16 Falkirk W 1-050.8 1503 1526 43.58% 22.23% 34.18%+0.26 +5.9 29
2024-11-16 @ Livingston L 0-150.8 1526 1503 34.18% 22.23% 43.58%-0.26 -5.9 32
2024-11-16 Greenock Morton L 2-362.6 1474 1410 54.93% 21.19% 23.88%+0.77 -7.8 15
2024-11-16 @ Raith Rovers W 3-262.6 1410 1474 23.88% 21.19% 54.93%-0.77 +7.8 14
2024-11-16 Hamilton Academical W 5-140.7 1514 1412 59.32% 20.40% 20.28%+1.00 +11.2 23
2024-11-16 @ Partick Thistle L 1-540.7 1412 1514 20.28% 20.40% 59.32%-1.00 -11.1 15
2024-11-16 Queens Park W 3-258.0 1476 1475 46.89% 22.06% 31.05%+0.40 +4.9 25
2024-11-16 @ Ayr United L 2-358.0 1475 1476 31.05% 22.06% 46.89%-0.40 -4.9 22
2024-11-22 Falkirk L 0-151.1 1470 1520 39.87% 22.32% 37.81%+0.11 -6.7 22
2024-11-22 @ Queens Park W 1-051.1 1520 1470 37.81% 22.32% 39.87%-0.11 +6.7 35
2024-11-23 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-042.9 1481 1420 54.55% 21.24% 24.21%+0.76 +4.4 28
2024-11-23 @ Ayr United L 0-142.9 1420 1481 24.21% 21.24% 54.55%-0.76 -4.4 12
2024-12-07 Airdrieonians W 2-034.7 1464 1337 62.02% 19.80% 18.18%+1.15 +6.4 25
2024-12-07 @ Queens Park L 0-234.7 1337 1464 18.18% 19.80% 62.02%-1.15 -6.3 5
2024-12-07 Ayr United W 1-047.6 1525 1485 52.04% 21.58% 26.38%+0.64 +4.8 26
2024-12-07 @ Partick Thistle L 0-147.6 1485 1525 26.38% 21.58% 52.04%-0.64 -4.8 28
2024-12-07 Hamilton Academical W 3-253.3 1416 1401 48.78% 21.91% 29.30%+0.49 +4.7 15
2024-12-07 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 2-353.3 1401 1416 29.30% 21.91% 48.78%-0.49 -4.7 15
2024-12-07 Livingston D 0-056.7 1418 1509 34.14% 22.23% 43.62%-0.13 +0.4 15
2024-12-07 @ Greenock Morton D 0-056.7 1509 1418 43.62% 22.23% 34.14%+0.13 -0.4 30
2024-12-07 Raith Rovers W 3-041.1 1527 1466 54.67% 21.23% 24.11%+0.76 +12.0 38
2024-12-07 @ Falkirk L 0-341.1 1466 1527 24.11% 21.23% 54.67%-0.76 -12.0 15
2024-12-13 Partick Thistle W 2-047.9 1508 1530 43.86% 22.22% 33.92%+0.27 +11.1 33
2024-12-13 @ Livingston L 0-247.9 1530 1508 33.92% 22.22% 43.86%-0.27 -11.1 26
2024-12-14 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-039.9 1454 1421 51.17% 21.68% 27.15%+0.60 +9.2 18
2024-12-14 @ Raith Rovers L 0-239.9 1421 1454 27.15% 21.68% 51.17%-0.60 -9.2 15
2024-12-14 Falkirk W 5-254.3 1480 1539 38.60% 22.32% 39.07%+0.06 +13.1 31
2024-12-14 @ Ayr United L 2-554.3 1539 1480 39.07% 22.32% 38.60%-0.06 -13.1 38
2024-12-14 Greenock Morton D 2-263.1 1331 1418 34.61% 22.25% 43.14%-0.11 +0.2 6
2024-12-14 @ Airdrieonians D 2-263.1 1418 1331 43.14% 22.25% 34.61%+0.11 -0.2 16
2024-12-14 Queens Park W 2-153.3 1397 1470 36.50% 22.30% 41.19%-0.03 +6.5 18
2024-12-14 @ Hamilton Academical L 1-253.3 1470 1397 41.19% 22.30% 36.50%+0.03 -6.5 25
2024-12-17 Livingston L 0-335.9 1331 1519 22.83% 20.99% 56.19%-0.70 -11.4 6
2024-12-17 @ Airdrieonians W 3-035.9 1519 1331 56.19% 20.99% 22.83%+0.70 +11.4 36
2024-12-20 Raith Rovers L 1-256.9 1464 1463 46.94% 22.06% 31.01%+0.41 -7.2 25
2024-12-20 @ Queens Park W 2-156.9 1463 1464 31.01% 22.06% 46.94%-0.41 +7.2 21
2024-12-21 Ayr United L 0-155.7 1531 1494 51.69% 21.62% 26.69%+0.62 -8.3 36
2024-12-21 @ Livingston W 1-055.7 1494 1531 26.69% 21.62% 51.69%-0.62 +8.3 34
2024-12-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-039.7 1418 1411 47.69% 22.00% 30.31%+0.44 +10.1 19
2024-12-21 @ Greenock Morton L 0-239.7 1411 1418 30.31% 22.00% 47.69%-0.44 -10.1 15
2024-12-21 Hamilton Academical W 1-041.7 1526 1403 61.62% 19.89% 18.48%+1.12 +3.4 41
2024-12-21 @ Falkirk L 0-141.7 1403 1526 18.48% 19.89% 61.62%-1.12 -3.4 18
2024-12-21 Partick Thistle L 0-237.0 1319 1519 21.78% 20.76% 57.46%-0.77 -7.5 6
2024-12-21 @ Airdrieonians W 2-037.0 1519 1319 57.46% 20.76% 21.78%+0.77 +7.5 29
2024-12-27 Falkirk D 3-371.6 1401 1529 29.40% 21.92% 48.67%-0.35 +0.4 16
2024-12-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 3-371.6 1529 1401 48.67% 21.92% 29.40%+0.35 -0.4 42
2024-12-28 Airdrieonians W 3-248.7 1400 1312 57.75% 20.71% 21.54%+0.92 +3.5 21
2024-12-28 @ Hamilton Academical L 2-348.7 1312 1400 21.54% 20.71% 57.75%-0.92 -3.5 6
2024-12-28 Greenock Morton D 0-057.2 1502 1428 56.15% 20.99% 22.86%+0.83 -1.3 35
2024-12-28 @ Ayr United D 0-057.2 1428 1502 22.86% 20.99% 56.15%-0.83 +1.4 20
2024-12-28 Livingston W 2-156.7 1470 1522 39.52% 22.32% 38.16%+0.09 +6.1 24
2024-12-28 @ Raith Rovers L 1-256.7 1522 1470 38.16% 22.32% 39.52%-0.09 -6.1 36
2024-12-28 Queens Park W 2-151.5 1526 1457 55.68% 21.07% 23.25%+0.81 +4.0 32
2024-12-28 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.5 1457 1526 23.25% 21.07% 55.68%-0.81 -4.0 25
2024-12-31 Partick Thistle W 2-157.5 1429 1530 32.80% 22.17% 45.03%-0.19 +6.9 23
2024-12-31 @ Greenock Morton L 1-257.5 1530 1429 45.03% 22.17% 32.80%+0.19 -6.9 32
2025-01-04 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-454.6 1523 1402 61.49% 19.92% 18.59%+1.12 -22.2 32
2025-01-04 @ Partick Thistle W 4-154.6 1402 1523 18.59% 19.92% 61.49%-1.12 +22.2 19
2025-01-04 Livingston W 2-047.1 1453 1516 37.87% 22.32% 39.81%+0.03 +12.6 28
2025-01-04 @ Queens Park L 0-247.1 1516 1453 39.81% 22.32% 37.87%-0.03 -12.6 36
2025-01-04 Raith Rovers W 3-041.9 1500 1476 50.03% 21.80% 28.17%+0.54 +13.8 38
2025-01-04 @ Ayr United L 0-341.9 1476 1500 28.17% 21.80% 50.03%-0.54 -13.8 24
2025-01-10 Partick Thistle L 1-252.0 1403 1501 33.19% 22.19% 44.62%-0.17 -5.4 21
2025-01-10 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-152.0 1501 1403 44.62% 22.19% 33.19%+0.17 +5.4 35
2025-01-11 Queens Park D 0-059.5 1529 1465 54.97% 21.18% 23.85%+0.78 -1.3 43
2025-01-11 @ Falkirk D 0-059.5 1465 1529 23.85% 21.18% 54.97%-0.78 +1.3 29
2025-01-14 Airdrieonians W 2-142.2 1504 1308 68.69% 17.86% 13.45%+1.55 +2.3 39
2025-01-14 @ Livingston L 1-242.2 1308 1504 13.45% 17.86% 68.69%-1.55 -2.3 6
2025-01-14 Ayr United L 0-244.3 1424 1514 34.23% 22.24% 43.53%-0.13 -11.2 19
2025-01-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-044.3 1514 1424 43.53% 22.24% 34.23%+0.13 +11.1 41
2025-01-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-040.3 1306 1413 32.07% 22.13% 45.81%-0.22 +20.4 9
2025-01-25 @ Airdrieonians L 0-340.3 1413 1306 45.81% 22.13% 32.07%+0.22 -20.4 19
2025-01-25 Falkirk L 0-247.2 1462 1528 37.66% 22.32% 40.02%+0.02 -12.0 24
2025-01-25 @ Raith Rovers W 2-047.2 1528 1462 40.02% 22.32% 37.66%-0.02 +12.0 46
2025-01-25 Greenock Morton L 1-257.1 1466 1436 50.78% 21.72% 27.50%+0.58 -7.7 29
2025-01-25 @ Queens Park W 2-157.1 1436 1466 27.50% 21.72% 50.78%-0.58 +7.7 26
2025-01-25 Hamilton Academical W 3-036.3 1506 1398 60.07% 20.24% 19.69%+1.04 +10.0 42
2025-01-25 @ Livingston L 0-336.3 1398 1506 19.69% 20.24% 60.07%-1.04 -10.0 21
2025-01-25 Partick Thistle W 2-155.3 1525 1507 49.30% 21.87% 28.83%+0.51 +4.8 44
2025-01-25 @ Ayr United L 1-255.3 1507 1525 28.83% 21.87% 49.30%-0.51 -4.8 35
2025-01-28 Raith Rovers L 0-340.5 1388 1450 38.05% 22.32% 39.63%+0.03 -17.6 21
2025-01-28 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-040.5 1450 1388 39.63% 22.32% 38.05%-0.03 +17.6 27
2025-01-31 Livingston L 1-262.5 1540 1516 49.95% 21.81% 28.25%+0.54 -7.6 46
2025-01-31 @ Falkirk W 2-162.5 1516 1540 28.25% 21.81% 49.95%-0.54 +7.6 45
2025-02-01 Ayr United L 0-240.2 1370 1530 25.75% 21.49% 52.76%-0.54 -8.8 21
2025-02-01 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-040.2 1530 1370 52.76% 21.49% 25.75%+0.54 +8.8 47
2025-02-01 Greenock Morton D 2-268.7 1502 1444 54.25% 21.29% 24.47%+0.74 -0.8 36
2025-02-01 @ Partick Thistle D 2-268.7 1444 1502 24.47% 21.29% 54.25%-0.74 +0.8 27
2025-02-01 Queens Park W 2-153.5 1326 1459 28.92% 21.87% 49.21%-0.37 +7.5 12
2025-02-01 @ Airdrieonians L 1-253.5 1459 1326 49.21% 21.87% 28.92%+0.37 -7.5 29
2025-02-01 Raith Rovers W 3-150.0 1392 1468 36.23% 22.30% 41.47%-0.04 +11.2 22
2025-02-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-350.0 1468 1392 41.47% 22.30% 36.23%+0.04 -11.2 27
2025-02-08 Partick Thistle W 5-251.1 1532 1501 50.92% 21.71% 27.37%+0.58 +9.8 49
2025-02-08 @ Falkirk L 2-551.1 1501 1532 27.37% 21.71% 50.92%-0.58 -9.8 36
2025-02-15 Airdrieonians D 2-264.3 1445 1334 60.32% 20.19% 19.49%+1.05 -1.1 28
2025-02-15 @ Greenock Morton D 2-264.3 1334 1445 19.49% 20.19% 60.32%-1.05 +1.1 13
2025-02-15 Ayr United D 2-273.5 1542 1539 47.24% 22.03% 30.73%+0.42 -0.4 50
2025-02-15 @ Falkirk D 2-273.5 1539 1542 30.73% 22.03% 47.24%-0.42 +0.4 48
2025-02-15 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-057.4 1524 1404 61.32% 19.96% 18.72%+1.11 -1.8 46
2025-02-15 @ Livingston D 0-057.4 1404 1524 18.72% 19.96% 61.32%-1.11 +1.8 23
2025-02-15 Hamilton Academical L 1-256.4 1451 1361 58.00% 20.66% 21.34%+0.93 -8.6 29
2025-02-15 @ Queens Park W 2-156.4 1361 1451 21.34% 20.66% 58.00%-0.93 +8.6 24
2025-02-15 Partick Thistle W 3-043.3 1457 1491 42.07% 22.28% 35.65%+0.20 +16.7 30
2025-02-15 @ Raith Rovers L 0-343.3 1491 1457 35.65% 22.28% 42.07%-0.20 -16.7 36
2025-02-18 Hamilton Academical W 2-036.8 1444 1370 56.12% 21.00% 22.88%+0.83 +7.9 31
2025-02-18 @ Greenock Morton L 0-236.8 1370 1444 22.88% 21.00% 56.12%-0.83 -7.9 24
2025-02-21 Falkirk L 0-246.3 1451 1542 34.25% 22.24% 43.51%-0.13 -11.2 31
2025-02-21 @ Greenock Morton W 2-046.3 1542 1451 43.51% 22.24% 34.25%+0.13 +11.2 53
2025-02-22 Airdrieonians D 1-159.1 1474 1335 63.32% 19.47% 17.21%+1.22 -1.7 37
2025-02-22 @ Partick Thistle D 1-159.1 1335 1474 17.21% 19.47% 63.32%-1.22 +1.7 14
2025-02-22 Hamilton Academical W 2-036.0 1473 1362 60.38% 20.18% 19.44%+1.05 +6.8 33
2025-02-22 @ Raith Rovers L 0-236.0 1362 1473 19.44% 20.18% 60.38%-1.05 -6.8 24
2025-02-22 Livingston L 1-262.4 1539 1522 49.14% 21.88% 28.98%+0.50 -7.5 48
2025-02-22 @ Ayr United W 2-162.4 1522 1539 28.98% 21.88% 49.14%-0.50 +7.5 49
2025-02-22 Queens Park D 0-054.2 1405 1443 41.68% 22.29% 36.03%+0.18 -0.2 24
2025-02-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-054.2 1443 1405 36.03% 22.29% 41.68%-0.18 +0.2 30
2025-02-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-043.7 1355 1405 39.88% 22.32% 37.80%+0.11 +6.4 27
2025-02-25 @ Hamilton Academical L 0-143.7 1405 1355 37.80% 22.32% 39.88%-0.11 -6.4 24
2025-02-25 Greenock Morton W 3-255.4 1529 1440 57.91% 20.68% 21.41%+0.92 +3.5 52
2025-02-25 @ Livingston L 2-355.4 1440 1529 21.41% 20.68% 57.91%-0.92 -3.5 31
2025-02-25 Raith Rovers W 1-048.6 1337 1480 27.61% 21.73% 50.66%-0.44 +8.1 17
2025-02-25 @ Airdrieonians L 0-148.6 1480 1337 50.66% 21.73% 27.61%+0.44 -8.1 33
2025-02-28 Livingston D 1-164.6 1473 1533 38.40% 22.32% 39.27%+0.05 +0.0 38
2025-02-28 @ Partick Thistle D 1-164.6 1533 1473 39.27% 22.32% 38.40%-0.05 -0.0 53
2025-03-01 Airdrieonians W 4-138.2 1532 1345 67.92% 18.12% 13.96%+1.50 +5.9 51
2025-03-01 @ Ayr United L 1-438.2 1345 1532 13.96% 18.12% 67.92%-1.50 -6.0 17
2025-03-01 Falkirk D 2-267.7 1362 1553 22.57% 20.93% 56.49%-0.72 +0.9 28
2025-03-01 @ Hamilton Academical D 2-267.7 1553 1362 56.49% 20.93% 22.57%+0.72 -0.9 54
2025-03-01 Greenock Morton W 2-150.9 1399 1437 41.56% 22.30% 36.14%+0.18 +5.8 27
2025-03-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-250.9 1437 1399 36.14% 22.30% 41.56%-0.18 -5.8 31
2025-03-01 Queens Park L 0-446.2 1472 1443 50.68% 21.73% 27.59%+0.57 -29.1 33
2025-03-01 @ Raith Rovers W 4-046.2 1443 1472 27.59% 21.73% 50.68%-0.57 +29.1 33
2025-03-04 Ayr United L 2-362.3 1472 1538 37.58% 22.32% 40.11%+0.01 -5.7 33
2025-03-04 @ Queens Park W 3-262.3 1538 1472 40.11% 22.32% 37.58%-0.01 +5.7 54
2025-03-04 Falkirk L 0-336.2 1339 1552 20.55% 20.47% 58.98%-0.85 -10.4 17
2025-03-04 @ Airdrieonians W 3-036.2 1552 1339 58.98% 20.47% 20.55%+0.85 +10.4 57
2025-03-05 Raith Rovers D 0-058.9 1533 1443 58.00% 20.66% 21.34%+0.93 -1.5 54
2025-03-05 @ Livingston D 0-058.9 1443 1533 21.34% 20.66% 58.00%-0.93 +1.5 34
2025-03-08 Ayr United W 2-158.5 1431 1544 31.33% 22.08% 46.60%-0.26 +7.1 34
2025-03-08 @ Greenock Morton L 1-258.5 1544 1431 46.60% 22.08% 31.33%+0.26 -7.1 54
2025-03-08 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-042.0 1562 1405 65.14% 18.97% 15.89%+1.33 +2.9 60
2025-03-08 @ Falkirk L 0-142.0 1405 1562 15.89% 18.97% 65.14%-1.33 -3.0 27
2025-03-08 Hamilton Academical W 2-148.0 1329 1363 42.13% 22.28% 35.59%+0.20 +5.8 20
2025-03-08 @ Airdrieonians L 1-248.0 1363 1329 35.59% 22.28% 42.13%-0.20 -5.8 28
2025-03-11 Partick Thistle L 0-247.8 1466 1473 45.93% 22.12% 31.95%+0.36 -14.1 33
2025-03-11 @ Queens Park W 2-047.8 1473 1466 31.95% 22.12% 45.93%-0.36 +14.1 41
2025-03-14 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-038.7 1445 1402 52.40% 21.53% 26.07%+0.65 +8.9 37
2025-03-14 @ Raith Rovers L 0-238.7 1402 1445 26.07% 21.53% 52.40%-0.65 -8.9 27
2025-03-15 Ayr United W 2-048.5 1487 1536 39.93% 22.32% 37.75%+0.11 +12.1 44
2025-03-15 @ Partick Thistle L 0-248.5 1536 1487 37.75% 22.32% 39.93%-0.11 -12.1 54
2025-03-15 Falkirk L 0-444.2 1452 1565 31.27% 22.07% 46.66%-0.26 -19.6 33
2025-03-15 @ Queens Park W 4-044.2 1565 1452 46.66% 22.07% 31.27%+0.26 +19.6 63
2025-03-15 Greenock Morton L 0-240.5 1357 1438 35.45% 22.28% 42.27%-0.08 -11.5 28
2025-03-15 @ Hamilton Academical W 2-040.5 1438 1357 42.27% 22.28% 35.45%+0.08 +11.5 37
2025-03-15 Livingston D 3-369.9 1334 1531 22.00% 20.81% 57.18%-0.75 +0.8 21
2025-03-15 @ Airdrieonians D 3-369.9 1531 1334 57.18% 20.81% 22.00%+0.75 -0.8 55
2025-03-21 Raith Rovers D 0-057.8 1499 1453 52.73% 21.49% 25.78%+0.67 -1.1 45
2025-03-21 @ Partick Thistle D 0-057.8 1453 1499 25.78% 21.49% 52.73%-0.67 +1.1 38
2025-03-22 Airdrieonians W 2-034.7 1585 1335 73.27% 16.16% 10.57%+1.87 +3.6 66
2025-03-22 @ Falkirk L 0-234.7 1335 1585 10.57% 16.16% 73.27%-1.87 -3.6 21
2025-03-22 Hamilton Academical D 1-161.0 1524 1345 67.17% 18.36% 14.47%+1.45 -2.0 55
2025-03-22 @ Ayr United D 1-161.0 1345 1524 14.47% 18.36% 67.17%-1.45 +2.0 29
2025-03-22 Queens Park W 2-150.0 1450 1432 49.10% 21.88% 29.01%+0.50 +4.9 40
2025-03-22 @ Greenock Morton L 1-250.0 1432 1450 29.01% 21.88% 49.10%-0.50 -4.9 33
2025-03-25 Falkirk W 1-055.4 1531 1588 38.74% 22.32% 38.93%+0.06 +6.5 58
2025-03-25 @ Livingston L 0-155.4 1588 1531 38.93% 22.32% 38.74%-0.06 -6.5 66
2025-03-25 Raith Rovers D 3-370.8 1454 1454 46.82% 22.06% 31.12%+0.40 -0.3 41
2025-03-25 @ Greenock Morton D 3-370.8 1454 1454 31.12% 22.06% 46.82%-0.40 +0.3 39
2025-03-29 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-036.0 1522 1393 62.31% 19.73% 17.96%+1.16 +9.1 58
2025-03-29 @ Ayr United L 0-336.0 1393 1522 17.96% 19.73% 62.31%-1.16 -9.1 27
2025-03-29 Partick Thistle L 0-150.0 1454 1498 40.76% 22.31% 36.93%+0.14 -6.8 41
2025-03-29 @ Greenock Morton W 1-050.0 1498 1454 36.93% 22.31% 40.76%-0.14 +6.8 48
2025-03-29 Raith Rovers L 0-337.7 1347 1455 31.98% 22.12% 45.90%-0.23 -15.3 29
2025-03-29 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-037.7 1455 1347 45.90% 22.12% 31.98%+0.23 +15.3 42
2025-04-02 Airdrieonians L 0-544.7 1428 1332 58.69% 20.53% 20.78%+0.96 -40.8 33
2025-04-02 @ Queens Park W 5-044.7 1332 1428 20.78% 20.53% 58.69%-0.96 +40.8 24
2025-04-02 Livingston W 1-052.0 1384 1537 26.48% 21.59% 51.93%-0.50 +8.3 30
2025-04-02 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-152.0 1537 1384 51.93% 21.59% 26.48%+0.50 -8.3 58
2025-04-05 Ayr United W 1-051.4 1470 1531 38.24% 22.32% 39.44%+0.04 +6.6 45
2025-04-05 @ Raith Rovers L 0-151.4 1531 1470 39.44% 22.32% 38.24%-0.04 -6.6 58
2025-04-05 Greenock Morton W 5-040.3 1582 1447 62.82% 19.60% 17.58%+1.19 +14.4 69
2025-04-05 @ Falkirk L 0-540.3 1447 1582 17.58% 19.60% 62.82%-1.19 -14.4 41
2025-04-05 Hamilton Academical L 0-147.8 1392 1332 54.49% 21.25% 24.26%+0.75 -8.7 30
2025-04-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.8 1332 1392 24.26% 21.25% 54.49%-0.75 +8.7 32
2025-04-05 Partick Thistle W 2-155.9 1372 1505 28.90% 21.87% 49.22%-0.37 +7.5 27
2025-04-05 @ Airdrieonians L 1-255.9 1505 1372 49.22% 21.87% 28.90%+0.37 -7.5 48
2025-04-05 Queens Park W 3-035.7 1529 1387 63.58% 19.40% 17.01%+1.23 +8.6 61
2025-04-05 @ Livingston L 0-335.7 1387 1529 17.01% 19.40% 63.58%-1.23 -8.6 33
2025-04-11 Falkirk D 1-168.6 1525 1596 36.82% 22.31% 40.87%-0.02 +0.1 59
2025-04-11 @ Ayr United D 1-168.6 1596 1525 40.87% 22.31% 36.82%+0.02 -0.1 70
2025-04-12 Airdrieonians D 1-160.0 1477 1380 58.80% 20.51% 20.69%+0.97 -1.4 46
2025-04-12 @ Raith Rovers D 1-160.0 1380 1477 20.69% 20.51% 58.80%-0.97 +1.4 28
2025-04-12 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-146.2 1378 1383 46.13% 22.11% 31.76%+0.37 -7.5 33
2025-04-12 @ Queens Park W 1-046.2 1383 1378 31.76% 22.11% 46.13%-0.37 +7.5 33
2025-04-12 Hamilton Academical L 1-258.6 1497 1341 65.02% 19.01% 15.97%+1.32 -9.5 48
2025-04-12 @ Partick Thistle W 2-158.6 1341 1497 15.97% 19.01% 65.02%-1.32 +9.5 35
2025-04-12 Livingston L 1-254.1 1433 1537 32.36% 22.14% 45.50%-0.21 -5.3 41
2025-04-12 @ Greenock Morton W 2-154.1 1537 1433 45.50% 22.14% 32.36%+0.21 +5.3 64
2025-04-18 Ayr United W 5-045.8 1543 1525 49.19% 21.88% 28.94%+0.51 +22.7 67
2025-04-18 @ Livingston L 0-545.8 1525 1543 28.94% 21.88% 49.19%-0.51 -22.7 59
2025-04-19 Greenock Morton L 0-145.5 1381 1428 40.37% 22.32% 37.32%+0.13 -6.7 28
2025-04-19 @ Airdrieonians W 1-045.5 1428 1381 37.32% 22.32% 40.37%-0.13 +6.7 44
2025-04-19 Partick Thistle D 0-055.1 1391 1488 33.36% 22.20% 44.44%-0.17 +0.4 34
2025-04-19 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-055.1 1488 1391 44.44% 22.20% 33.36%+0.17 -0.4 49
2025-04-19 Queens Park D 0-051.6 1350 1371 44.03% 22.22% 33.75%+0.28 -0.4 36
2025-04-19 @ Hamilton Academical D 0-051.6 1371 1350 33.75% 22.22% 44.03%-0.28 +0.4 34
2025-04-19 Raith Rovers L 1-362.7 1596 1475 61.38% 19.95% 18.67%+1.11 -15.7 70
2025-04-19 @ Falkirk W 3-162.7 1475 1596 18.67% 19.95% 61.38%-1.11 +15.7 49
2025-04-25 Falkirk W 2-161.2 1487 1580 33.84% 22.22% 43.94%-0.15 +6.8 52
2025-04-25 @ Partick Thistle L 1-261.2 1580 1487 43.94% 22.22% 33.84%+0.15 -6.8 70
2025-04-26 Airdrieonians D 0-052.4 1391 1374 49.06% 21.89% 29.05%+0.50 -0.8 35
2025-04-26 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-052.4 1374 1391 29.05% 21.89% 49.06%-0.50 +0.8 29
2025-04-26 Greenock Morton D 1-162.0 1491 1434 54.10% 21.31% 24.59%+0.73 -1.1 50
2025-04-26 @ Raith Rovers D 1-162.0 1434 1491 24.59% 21.31% 54.10%-0.73 +1.1 45
2025-04-26 Livingston L 0-336.9 1350 1565 20.31% 20.41% 59.28%-0.86 -10.2 36
2025-04-26 @ Hamilton Academical W 3-036.9 1565 1350 59.28% 20.41% 20.31%+0.86 +10.2 70
2025-04-26 Queens Park D 2-266.8 1502 1371 62.48% 19.68% 17.83%+1.17 -1.2 60
2025-04-26 @ Ayr United D 2-266.8 1371 1502 17.83% 19.68% 62.48%-1.17 +1.2 35
2025-05-02 Ayr United L 0-144.0 1375 1501 29.68% 21.95% 48.37%-0.34 -5.3 29
2025-05-02 @ Airdrieonians W 1-044.0 1501 1375 48.37% 21.95% 29.68%+0.34 +5.3 63
2025-05-02 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-038.1 1435 1390 52.66% 21.50% 25.84%+0.67 +8.8 48
2025-05-02 @ Greenock Morton L 0-238.1 1390 1435 25.84% 21.50% 52.66%-0.67 -8.8 35
2025-05-02 Hamilton Academical W 3-140.9 1574 1340 72.00% 16.66% 11.34%+1.77 +3.4 73
2025-05-02 @ Falkirk L 1-340.9 1340 1574 11.34% 16.66% 72.00%-1.77 -3.4 36
2025-05-02 Partick Thistle L 0-158.8 1576 1494 57.07% 20.83% 22.10%+0.88 -9.0 70
2025-05-02 @ Livingston W 1-058.8 1494 1576 22.10% 20.83% 57.07%-0.88 +9.0 55
2025-05-02 Raith Rovers L 1-542.2 1372 1490 30.69% 22.03% 47.28%-0.29 -16.1 35
2025-05-02 @ Queens Park W 5-142.2 1490 1372 47.28% 22.03% 30.69%+0.29 +16.1 53

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-04-12 15.97% Hamilton Academical 1341 2 @ Partick Thistle 1497 1
2 2025-01-04 18.59% Dunfermline Athletic 1402 4 @ Partick Thistle 1523 1
3 2025-04-19 18.67% Raith Rovers 1475 3 @ Falkirk 1596 1
4 2025-04-02 20.78% Airdrieonians 1332 5 @ Queens Park 1428 0
5 2025-02-15 21.34% Hamilton Academical 1361 2 @ Queens Park 1451 1
6 2025-05-02 22.10% Partick Thistle 1494 1 @ Livingston 1576 0
7 2024-11-16 23.88% Greenock Morton 1410 3 @ Raith Rovers 1474 2
8 2025-04-05 24.26% Hamilton Academical 1332 1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1392 0
9 2025-04-02 26.48% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1384 1 Livingston 1537 0
10 2024-12-21 26.69% Ayr United 1494 1 @ Livingston 1531 0
11 2025-01-25 27.50% Greenock Morton 1436 2 @ Queens Park 1466 1
12 2025-03-01 27.59% Queens Park 1443 4 @ Raith Rovers 1472 0
13 2025-02-25 27.61% @ Airdrieonians 1337 1 Raith Rovers 1480 0
14 2025-01-31 28.25% Livingston 1516 2 @ Falkirk 1540 1
15 2025-04-05 28.90% @ Airdrieonians 1372 2 Partick Thistle 1505 1
16 2025-02-01 28.92% @ Airdrieonians 1326 2 Queens Park 1459 1
17 2025-02-22 28.98% Livingston 1522 2 @ Ayr United 1539 1
18 2024-08-31 29.92% Livingston 1480 1 @ Raith Rovers 1489 0
19 2024-09-28 29.94% @ Hamilton Academical 1384 1 Partick Thistle 1508 0
20 2024-12-20 31.01% Raith Rovers 1463 2 @ Queens Park 1464 1
21 2025-03-08 31.33% @ Greenock Morton 1431 2 Ayr United 1544 1
22 2025-04-12 31.76% Dunfermline Athletic 1383 1 @ Queens Park 1378 0
23 2024-08-31 31.79% Falkirk 1461 3 @ Greenock Morton 1455 2
24 2024-10-29 31.95% @ Dunfermline Athletic 1406 3 Livingston 1514 0
25 2025-03-11 31.95% Partick Thistle 1473 2 @ Queens Park 1466 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-04-02 40.76 Airdrieonians 5 1332 20.78% @ Queens Park 0 1428 58.69% 20.53%
2 2025-03-01 29.07 Queens Park 4 1443 27.59% @ Raith Rovers 0 1472 50.68% 21.73%
3 2024-11-02 25.51 Hamilton Academical 4 1397 34.40% @ Airdrieonians 0 1372 43.35% 22.24%
4 2024-08-09 23.15 @ Ayr United 5 1458 48.43% Airdrieonians 0 1446 29.62% 21.94%
5 2025-04-18 22.69 @ Livingston 5 1543 49.19% Ayr United 0 1525 28.94% 21.88%
6 2024-11-02 22.55 @ Falkirk 6 1499 55.26% Greenock Morton 0 1432 23.61% 21.14%
7 2025-01-04 22.24 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1402 18.59% @ Partick Thistle 1 1523 61.49% 19.92%
8 2024-10-29 20.48 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1406 31.95% Livingston 0 1514 45.93% 22.12%
9 2025-01-25 20.43 @ Airdrieonians 3 1306 32.07% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1413 45.81% 22.13%
10 2025-03-15 19.64 Falkirk 4 1565 46.66% @ Queens Park 0 1452 31.27% 22.07%
11 2024-10-26 19.11 @ Hamilton Academical 3 1378 35.54% Greenock Morton 0 1459 42.18% 22.28%
12 2025-01-28 17.61 Raith Rovers 3 1450 39.63% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1388 38.05% 22.32%
13 2025-02-15 16.73 @ Raith Rovers 3 1457 42.07% Partick Thistle 0 1491 35.65% 22.28%
14 2025-05-02 16.12 Raith Rovers 5 1490 47.28% @ Queens Park 1 1372 30.69% 22.03%
15 2025-04-19 15.70 Raith Rovers 3 1475 18.67% @ Falkirk 1 1596 61.38% 19.95%
16 2025-03-29 15.33 Raith Rovers 3 1455 45.90% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1347 31.98% 22.12%
17 2025-04-05 14.36 @ Falkirk 5 1582 62.82% Greenock Morton 0 1447 17.58% 19.60%
18 2025-03-11 14.11 Partick Thistle 2 1473 31.95% @ Queens Park 0 1466 45.93% 22.12%
19 2024-08-31 13.92 @ Partick Thistle 3 1489 49.65% Queens Park 0 1468 28.52% 21.83%
20 2024-08-10 13.82 Falkirk 2 1441 32.97% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1427 44.85% 22.18%
21 2025-01-04 13.77 @ Ayr United 3 1500 50.03% Raith Rovers 0 1476 28.17% 21.80%
22 2024-08-24 13.21 Queens Park 2 1455 35.30% @ Airdrieonians 0 1423 42.42% 22.27%
23 2024-12-14 13.13 @ Ayr United 5 1480 38.60% Falkirk 2 1539 39.07% 22.32%
24 2024-09-13 12.93 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1407 36.40% Raith Rovers 0 1481 41.29% 22.30%
25 2024-08-03 12.86 Ayr United 2 1445 36.68% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1403 41.01% 22.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-02-15 73.5 @ Falkirk 2 1542 47.24% Ayr United 2 1539 30.73% 22.03%
2 2024-12-27 71.6 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1401 29.40% Falkirk 3 1529 48.67% 21.92%
3 2025-03-25 70.8 @ Greenock Morton 3 1454 46.82% Raith Rovers 3 1454 31.12% 22.06%
4 2025-03-15 69.9 @ Airdrieonians 3 1334 22.00% Livingston 3 1531 57.18% 20.81%
5 2024-09-21 69.5 @ Raith Rovers 3 1468 57.49% Hamilton Academical 3 1383 21.75% 20.76%
6 2025-02-01 68.7 @ Partick Thistle 2 1502 54.25% Greenock Morton 2 1444 24.47% 21.29%
7 2025-04-11 68.6 @ Ayr United 1 1525 36.82% Falkirk 1 1596 40.87% 22.31%
8 2025-03-01 67.7 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1362 22.57% Falkirk 2 1553 56.49% 20.93%
9 2025-04-26 66.8 @ Ayr United 2 1502 62.48% Queens Park 2 1371 17.83% 19.68%
10 2025-02-28 64.6 @ Partick Thistle 1 1473 38.40% Livingston 1 1533 39.27% 22.32%
11 2024-09-14 64.4 @ Ayr United 1 1495 45.74% Partick Thistle 1 1503 32.13% 22.13%
12 2025-02-15 64.3 @ Greenock Morton 2 1445 60.32% Airdrieonians 2 1334 19.49% 20.19%
13 2024-08-31 64.2 @ Hamilton Academical 2 1394 44.71% Airdrieonians 2 1409 33.11% 22.19%
14 2024-11-09 64.1 @ Partick Thistle 1 1515 52.33% Raith Rovers 1 1473 26.12% 21.54%
15 2024-10-12 63.9 @ Partick Thistle 1 1499 48.74% Falkirk 1 1485 29.34% 21.92%
16 2024-11-02 63.2 @ Livingston 1 1493 49.85% Queens Park 1 1470 28.33% 21.81%
17 2024-12-14 63.1 @ Airdrieonians 2 1331 34.61% Greenock Morton 2 1418 43.14% 22.25%
18 2024-09-21 62.7 @ Queens Park 1 1459 41.95% Ayr United 1 1495 35.76% 22.29%
19 2025-04-19 62.7 Raith Rovers 3 1475 18.67% @ Falkirk 1 1596 61.38% 19.95%
20 2024-11-16 62.6 Greenock Morton 3 1410 23.88% @ Raith Rovers 2 1474 54.93% 21.19%
21 2025-01-31 62.5 Livingston 2 1516 28.25% @ Falkirk 1 1540 49.95% 21.81%
22 2025-02-22 62.4 Livingston 2 1522 28.98% @ Ayr United 1 1539 49.14% 21.88%
23 2025-03-04 62.3 Ayr United 3 1538 40.11% @ Queens Park 2 1472 37.58% 22.32%
24 2024-08-24 62.1 @ Livingston 1 1480 50.23% Greenock Morton 1 1455 27.99% 21.78%
25 2024-08-09 62.0 @ Queens Park 1 1455 43.38% Livingston 1 1480 34.38% 22.24%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2024-12-07 34.7 @ Queens Park 2 1464 62.02% Airdrieonians 0 1337 18.18% 19.80%
2 2025-03-22 34.7 @ Falkirk 2 1585 73.27% Airdrieonians 0 1335 10.57% 16.16%
3 2024-11-09 35.0 @ Falkirk 2 1521 66.80% Airdrieonians 0 1346 14.73% 18.48%
4 2025-04-05 35.7 @ Livingston 3 1529 63.58% Queens Park 0 1387 17.01% 19.40%
5 2024-12-17 35.9 Livingston 3 1519 56.19% @ Airdrieonians 0 1331 22.83% 20.99%
6 2025-02-22 36.0 @ Raith Rovers 2 1473 60.38% Hamilton Academical 0 1362 19.44% 20.18%
7 2025-03-29 36.0 @ Ayr United 3 1522 62.31% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1393 17.96% 19.73%
8 2024-09-14 36.1 @ Livingston 3 1487 58.44% Hamilton Academical 0 1394 20.98% 20.58%
9 2025-03-04 36.2 Falkirk 3 1552 58.98% @ Airdrieonians 0 1339 20.55% 20.47%
10 2025-01-25 36.3 @ Livingston 3 1506 60.07% Hamilton Academical 0 1398 19.69% 20.24%
11 2025-02-18 36.8 @ Greenock Morton 2 1444 56.12% Hamilton Academical 0 1370 22.88% 21.00%
12 2025-04-26 36.9 Livingston 3 1565 59.28% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1350 20.31% 20.41%
13 2024-12-21 37.0 Partick Thistle 2 1519 57.46% @ Airdrieonians 0 1319 21.78% 20.76%
14 2025-03-29 37.7 Raith Rovers 3 1455 45.90% @ Hamilton Academical 0 1347 31.98% 22.12%
15 2025-05-02 38.1 @ Greenock Morton 2 1435 52.66% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1390 25.84% 21.50%
16 2025-03-01 38.2 @ Ayr United 4 1532 67.92% Airdrieonians 1 1345 13.96% 18.12%
17 2024-09-21 38.4 @ Greenock Morton 2 1443 52.76% Airdrieonians 0 1397 25.75% 21.49%
18 2024-11-16 38.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1416 56.28% Airdrieonians 0 1341 22.75% 20.97%
19 2025-03-14 38.7 @ Raith Rovers 2 1445 52.40% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1402 26.07% 21.53%
20 2024-11-02 39.6 @ Falkirk 6 1499 55.26% Greenock Morton 0 1432 23.61% 21.14%
21 2024-12-21 39.7 @ Greenock Morton 2 1418 47.69% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1411 30.31% 22.00%
22 2024-12-14 39.9 @ Raith Rovers 2 1454 51.17% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1421 27.15% 21.68%
23 2024-08-09 40.1 @ Ayr United 5 1458 48.43% Airdrieonians 0 1446 29.62% 21.94%
24 2024-10-29 40.2 @ Raith Rovers 1 1457 57.03% Airdrieonians 0 1376 22.13% 20.84%
25 2024-11-02 40.2 Hamilton Academical 4 1397 34.40% @ Airdrieonians 0 1372 43.35% 22.24%