2025-26 Championship Season
180 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams · 100,000 simulations
Promoted
St. Mirren
via playoff
Relegated
No relegation
Biggest Overachiever
St. Johnstone
12.28 points above expected
77 points · 64.72 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Ayr United
13.42 points below expected
39 points · 52.42 expected points
League Table
The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Johnstone | 36 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 77 | 67 | 25 | +42 | 64.7 | +12.28 |
| 2 | Partick Thistle | 36 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 66 | 53 | 36 | +17 | 57.4 | +8.60 |
| 3 | Arbroath | 36 | 13 | 13 | 10 | 52 | 43 | 41 | +2 | 40.1 | +11.94 |
| 4 | Dunfermline Athletic | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 48.4 | +2.57 |
| 5 | Raith Rovers | 36 | 12 | 9 | 15 | 45 | 43 | 42 | +1 | 50.9 | -5.91 |
| 6 | Queens Park | 36 | 9 | 14 | 13 | 41 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 40.6 | +0.40 |
| 7 | Ayr United | 36 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 39 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 52.4 | -13.42 |
| 8 | Greenock Morton | 36 | 8 | 14 | 14 | 38 | 36 | 52 | -16 | 46.5 | -8.49 |
| 9 | Airdrieonians | 36 | 8 | 12 | 16 | 36 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 39.2 | -3.23 |
| 10 | Ross County | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 36 | 57 | -21 | 46.9 | -12.88 |
Form
Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)
League Race
Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.
Promotion Playoff
The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.
Quarterfinals
Dunfermline Athletic
1
Arbroath
0
Semifinals
Partick Thistle
3
Dunfermline Athletic
2
Finals
St. Mirren
1
Partick Thistle
0
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johnstone | 1587 | 77 | 64.72 | +12.28 | 95.7% | 35 | 52 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 77 | 96 |
| Partick Thistle | 1506 | 66 | 57.40 | +8.60 | 89.2% | 31 | 45 | 52 | 57 | 62 | 70 | 81 |
| Dunfermline Athletic | 1451 | 51 | 48.43 | +2.57 | 66.3% | 24 | 37 | 43 | 48 | 53 | 60 | 76 |
| Raith Rovers | 1423 | 45 | 50.91 | -5.91 | 23.6% | 24 | 39 | 46 | 51 | 56 | 63 | 79 |
| Ayr United | 1392 | 39 | 52.42 | -13.42 | 3.8% | 24 | 40 | 47 | 52 | 57 | 65 | 80 |
| Arbroath | 1381 | 52 | 40.06 | +11.94 | 95.5% | 16 | 29 | 35 | 40 | 45 | 52 | 70 |
| Airdrieonians | 1369 | 36 | 39.23 | -3.23 | 36.2% | 14 | 28 | 34 | 39 | 44 | 51 | 68 |
| Greenock Morton | 1361 | 38 | 46.49 | -8.49 | 13.9% | 15 | 35 | 41 | 46 | 51 | 59 | 76 |
| Ross County | 1360 | 34 | 46.88 | -12.88 | 4.0% | 21 | 35 | 42 | 47 | 52 | 59 | 77 |
| Queens Park | 1356 | 41 | 40.60 | +0.40 | 55.7% | 15 | 29 | 36 | 40 | 46 | 53 | 68 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | AIR | ARB | AU | DA | GM | PT | QP | RR | RC | SJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airdrieonians | — |
1-2-1
5.17
|
1-1-2
4.15
|
1-1-2
4.39
|
2-1-1
4.68
|
0-2-2
3.55
|
0-2-2
5.40
|
1-2-1
4.16
|
2-1-1
4.59
|
0-0-4
3.10
|
| Arbroath |
1-2-1
5.55
|
— |
0-3-1
4.20
|
2-1-1
4.57
|
0-2-2
4.80
|
1-3-0
3.59
|
3-0-1
5.13
|
2-1-1
4.38
|
3-1-0
4.61
|
1-0-3
3.19
|
| Ayr United |
2-1-1
6.74
|
1-3-0
6.62
|
— |
2-0-2
5.63
|
1-2-1
6.13
|
0-2-2
4.85
|
0-3-1
6.72
|
2-0-2
5.64
|
0-3-1
6.09
|
0-1-3
4.00
|
| Dunfermline Athletic |
2-1-1
6.39
|
1-1-2
6.25
|
2-0-2
5.09
|
— |
2-1-1
5.56
|
0-1-3
4.56
|
2-2-0
6.29
|
3-0-1
5.01
|
1-2-1
5.41
|
1-1-2
3.93
|
| Greenock Morton |
1-1-2
6.06
|
2-2-0
5.94
|
1-2-1
4.65
|
1-1-2
5.21
|
— |
0-2-2
4.45
|
1-2-1
6.08
|
0-2-2
4.88
|
2-1-1
5.40
|
0-1-3
3.88
|
| Partick Thistle |
2-2-0
7.41
|
0-3-1
7.38
|
2-2-0
5.86
|
3-1-0
6.20
|
2-2-0
6.33
|
— |
2-2-0
7.24
|
2-1-1
6.01
|
3-0-1
6.34
|
1-2-1
4.66
|
| Queens Park |
2-2-0
5.34
|
1-0-3
5.62
|
1-3-0
4.12
|
0-2-2
4.45
|
1-2-1
4.69
|
0-2-2
3.72
|
— |
1-1-2
4.40
|
3-0-1
5.08
|
0-2-2
3.19
|
| Raith Rovers |
1-2-1
6.67
|
1-1-2
6.47
|
2-0-2
5.09
|
1-0-3
5.75
|
2-2-0
5.86
|
1-1-2
4.71
|
2-1-1
6.40
|
— |
2-0-2
5.90
|
0-2-2
4.04
|
| Ross County |
1-1-2
6.17
|
0-1-3
6.22
|
1-3-0
4.68
|
1-2-1
5.30
|
1-1-2
5.33
|
1-0-3
4.53
|
1-0-3
5.73
|
2-0-2
4.85
|
— |
0-2-2
3.96
|
| St. Johnstone |
4-0-0
8.05
|
3-0-1
7.90
|
3-1-0
6.87
|
2-1-1
6.95
|
3-1-0
7.01
|
1-2-1
6.08
|
2-2-0
7.93
|
2-2-0
6.92
|
2-2-0
7.04
|
— |
Goal Differential vs Points
Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.33% | 8.06% | 5.56% | 3.06% | 1.39% | 1.11% | 32.50% |
| 1 | 8.06% | 14.44% | 7.22% | 2.22% | 0.56% | 0.28% | 32.78% |
| 2 | 5.56% | 7.22% | 5.56% | 2.22% | 1.11% | — | 21.67% |
| 3 | 3.06% | 2.22% | 2.22% | 0.56% | 0.28% | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | 1.39% | 0.56% | 1.11% | 0.28% | — | — | 3.33% |
| 5+ | 1.11% | 0.28% | — | — | — | — | 1.39% |
| Total | 32.50% | 32.78% | 21.67% | 8.33% | 3.33% | 1.39% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.22 |
| Mean allowed | 1.22 |
| StdDev scored | 1.17 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.17 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.43 |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | -0.032 |
| Sample size (games) | 180 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 16.67% | 2.78% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | 41.67% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 13.89% | 8.33% | 2.78% | — | — | 30.56% |
| 2 | 2.78% | 5.56% | 8.33% | — | 2.78% | — | 19.44% |
| 3 | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 4 | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 38.89% | 19.44% | 8.33% | 8.33% | — | 100% |
Airdrieonians — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 0.97 |
| Mean allowed | 1.36 |
| StdDev scored | 1.06 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.20 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.33 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.150 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | 2.78% | 36.11% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 19.44% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 30.56% |
| 2 | 2.78% | 11.11% | — | — | 2.78% | — | 16.67% |
| 3 | 2.78% | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 27.78% | 50.00% | 11.11% | 5.56% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 100% |
Arbroath — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.19 |
| Mean allowed | 1.14 |
| StdDev scored | 1.21 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.15 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.33 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.041 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | 5.56% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 25.00% | 13.89% | 2.78% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 2 | 2.78% | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | 2.78% | — | 13.89% |
| 3 | — | — | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | 5.56% |
| 4 | — | — | 2.78% | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 22.22% | 41.67% | 22.22% | 11.11% | 2.78% | — | 100% |
Ayr United — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.06 |
| Mean allowed | 1.31 |
| StdDev scored | 0.95 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.04 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.36 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.329 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.33% | 5.56% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 30.56% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 2.78% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 19.44% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 2.78% | 13.89% | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | 8.33% | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 5+ | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| Total | 41.67% | 13.89% | 36.11% | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | 100% |
Dunfermline Athletic — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.44 |
| Mean allowed | 1.14 |
| StdDev scored | 1.27 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.13 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.58 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.184 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 8.33% | 2.78% | — | 5.56% | 2.78% | 30.56% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 25.00% | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | 41.67% |
| 2 | 2.78% | 11.11% | 2.78% | 8.33% | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 22.22% | 44.44% | 11.11% | 13.89% | 5.56% | 2.78% | 100% |
Greenock Morton — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.00 |
| Mean allowed | 1.44 |
| StdDev scored | 0.83 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.30 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.44 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.080 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.89% | — | 5.56% | — | — | — | 19.44% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 16.67% | 2.78% | — | — | 2.78% | 33.33% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 13.89% | 11.11% | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | — | 5.56% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| Total | 36.11% | 36.11% | 25.00% | — | — | 2.78% | 100% |
Partick Thistle — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.47 |
| Mean allowed | 1.00 |
| StdDev scored | 1.11 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.04 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.47 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.099 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.89% | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | — | 2.78% | 33.33% |
| 1 | 8.33% | 22.22% | 5.56% | 2.78% | 5.56% | — | 44.44% |
| 2 | — | 11.11% | 2.78% | — | — | — | 13.89% |
| 3 | 2.78% | — | 2.78% | — | 2.78% | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 25.00% | 44.44% | 16.67% | 2.78% | 8.33% | 2.78% | 100% |
Queens Park — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 0.97 |
| Mean allowed | 1.33 |
| StdDev scored | 0.91 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.29 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.31 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.154 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 19.44% | — | 19.44% | 5.56% | — | — | 44.44% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 5.56% | 11.11% | — | — | — | 22.22% |
| 2 | 8.33% | — | — | 5.56% | — | — | 13.89% |
| 3 | 5.56% | 2.78% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 13.89% |
| 4 | — | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 5+ | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| Total | 41.67% | 11.11% | 36.11% | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
Raith Rovers — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.19 |
| Mean allowed | 1.17 |
| StdDev scored | 1.45 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.11 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.36 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.163 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.11% | 13.89% | 2.78% | 8.33% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 41.67% |
| 1 | 5.56% | 5.56% | 11.11% | 5.56% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 2 | 8.33% | 2.78% | 8.33% | 2.78% | — | — | 22.22% |
| 3 | — | — | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | 5.56% |
| 4 | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | — | 2.78% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 27.78% | 22.22% | 25.00% | 19.44% | 2.78% | 2.78% | 100% |
Ross County — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.00 |
| Mean allowed | 1.58 |
| StdDev scored | 1.07 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.40 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.58 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.114 |
| Games played | 36 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 19.44% |
| 1 | 13.89% | 8.33% | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | 27.78% |
| 2 | 11.11% | 8.33% | 5.56% | — | — | — | 25.00% |
| 3 | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 8.33% |
| 4 | 5.56% | — | 5.56% | 2.78% | — | — | 13.89% |
| 5+ | 2.78% | 2.78% | — | — | — | — | 5.56% |
| Total | 55.56% | 25.00% | 13.89% | 5.56% | — | — | 100% |
St. Johnstone — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.86 |
| Mean allowed | 0.69 |
| StdDev scored | 1.50 |
| StdDev allowed | 0.92 |
| Mean total goals/game | 2.56 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.238 |
| Games played | 36 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Johnstone | 77 | 64.7 | +12.28 |
| 2 | Arbroath | 52 | 40.1 | +11.94 |
| 3 | Partick Thistle | 66 | 57.4 | +8.60 |
| 4 | Dunfermline Athletic | 51 | 48.4 | +2.57 |
| 5 | Queens Park | 41 | 40.6 | +0.40 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayr United | 39 | 52.4 | -13.42 |
| 2 | Ross County | 34 | 46.9 | -12.88 |
| 3 | Greenock Morton | 38 | 46.5 | -8.49 |
| 4 | Raith Rovers | 45 | 50.9 | -5.91 |
| 5 | Airdrieonians | 36 | 39.2 | -3.23 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 5 | Aug 23 – Sep 30 | 1 in 165 |
| 2 | Arbroath | 3 | Dec 6 – Dec 20 | 1 in 81 |
| 3 | Airdrieonians | 2 | Dec 6 – Dec 13 | 1 in 23 |
| 4 | St. Johnstone | 5 | Apr 4 – May 1 | 1 in 20 |
| 5 | Raith Rovers | 3 | Mar 27 – Apr 14 | 1 in 19 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 4 | Nov 15 – Dec 20 | 1 in 183 |
| 2 | Greenock Morton | 4 | Feb 21 – Mar 13 | 1 in 48 |
| 3 | Raith Rovers | 3 | Oct 4 – Oct 17 | 1 in 27 |
| 4 | Dunfermline Athletic | 3 | Sep 19 – Sep 27 | 1 in 21 |
| 5 | Ayr United | 3 | Apr 18 – May 1 | 1 in 16 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick Thistle | 14 | Jan 24 – May 1 | 1 in 86 |
| 2 | Arbroath | 6 | Nov 15 – Dec 27 | 1 in 33 |
| 3 | St. Johnstone | 14 | Jan 30 – May 1 | 1 in 29 |
| 4 | Ayr United | 8 | Aug 23 – Oct 18 | 1 in 25 |
| 5 | Queens Park | 4 | Aug 23 – Sep 20 | 1 in 12 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ayr United | 9 | Feb 21 – Apr 7 | 1 in 102 |
| 2 | Ross County | 8 | Aug 2 – Sep 27 | 1 in 75 |
| 3 | Airdrieonians | 11 | Aug 2 – Oct 21 | 1 in 40 |
| 4 | Greenock Morton | 8 | Aug 2 – Sep 27 | 1 in 31 |
| 5 | Raith Rovers | 5 | Nov 1 – Dec 6 | 1 in 14 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmap
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johnstone | 64.58% | 19.94% | 7.95% | 4.06% | 1.82% | 0.96% | 0.32% | 0.23% | 0.08% | 0.06% |
| Partick Thistle | 18.78% | 31.30% | 19.14% | 12.56% | 8.00% | 5.01% | 2.65% | 1.63% | 0.69% | 0.24% |
| Arbroath | 0.21% | 1.01% | 2.53% | 4.07% | 6.71% | 9.02% | 13.42% | 16.63% | 21.94% | 24.46% |
| Dunfermline Athletic | 2.31% | 8.60% | 12.61% | 14.40% | 15.18% | 14.64% | 12.37% | 9.45% | 6.75% | 3.69% |
| Raith Rovers | 4.41% | 12.19% | 16.91% | 16.76% | 15.11% | 12.30% | 9.57% | 6.48% | 4.14% | 2.13% |
| Queens Park | 0.21% | 1.23% | 2.22% | 4.28% | 7.10% | 9.73% | 13.39% | 17.41% | 20.91% | 23.52% |
| Ayr United | 6.47% | 15.15% | 18.96% | 17.06% | 14.27% | 11.20% | 7.44% | 5.11% | 3.01% | 1.33% |
| Greenock Morton | 1.23% | 4.94% | 8.56% | 11.73% | 13.29% | 14.61% | 14.37% | 13.57% | 10.34% | 7.36% |
| Airdrieonians | 0.17% | 0.68% | 2.04% | 3.32% | 5.18% | 7.69% | 11.38% | 16.50% | 22.33% | 30.71% |
| Ross County | 1.63% | 4.96% | 9.08% | 11.76% | 13.34% | 14.84% | 15.09% | 12.99% | 9.81% | 6.50% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Points Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability — day by day.
Promotion Playoff Bracket
The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. Two-leg ties show their aggregate score with each leg listed below the matchup card.
Quarterfinals
Dunfermline Athletic
1
Arbroath
0
Semifinals
Partick Thistle
3
Dunfermline Athletic
2
Finals
St. Mirren
1
Partick Thistle
0
Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.
| Team | Direct promotion | Qualified for promotion playoff | Same level | Direct relegation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Johnstone | 64.6% | 31.9% | 3.4% | 0.1% |
| Partick Thistle | 18.8% | 63.0% | 18.0% | 0.2% |
| Ayr United | 6.5% | 51.2% | 41.0% | 1.3% |
| Raith Rovers | 4.4% | 45.9% | 47.6% | 2.1% |
| Dunfermline Athletic | 2.3% | 35.6% | 58.4% | 3.7% |
| Ross County | 1.6% | 25.8% | 66.1% | 6.5% |
| Greenock Morton | 1.2% | 25.2% | 66.2% | 7.4% |
| Queens Park | 0.2% | 7.7% | 68.5% | 23.5% |
| Arbroath | 0.2% | 7.6% | 67.7% | 24.5% |
| Airdrieonians | 0.2% | 6.0% | 63.1% | 30.7% |
Overall Game Log
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-01 | Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1328 | 1453 | 25.6% | 31.7% | 42.7% | +0.6 | 1 |
| 2025-08-01 | @ Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1453 | 1328 | 42.7% | 31.7% | 25.6% | -0.6 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Ross County | D 2-2 | 1382 | 1470 | 29.5% | 33.2% | 37.3% | +0.2 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | @ Airdrieonians | D 2-2 | 1470 | 1382 | 37.3% | 33.2% | 29.5% | -0.2 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Dunfermline Athletic | D 0-0 | 1421 | 1393 | 46.6% | 30.0% | 23.4% | -0.9 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | @ Greenock Morton | D 0-0 | 1393 | 1421 | 23.4% | 30.0% | 46.6% | +0.9 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1450 | 1382 | 52.9% | 26.4% | 20.6% | -1.1 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | @ Raith Rovers | D 1-1 | 1382 | 1450 | 20.6% | 26.4% | 52.9% | +1.1 | 1 |
| 2025-08-02 | Partick Thistle | W 5-1 | 1462 | 1450 | 44.1% | 31.2% | 24.8% | +14.4 | 3 |
| 2025-08-02 | @ St. Johnstone | L 1-5 | 1450 | 1462 | 24.8% | 31.2% | 44.1% | -14.4 | 0 |
| 2025-08-08 | St. Johnstone | L 0-1 | 1470 | 1477 | 41.2% | 32.2% | 26.5% | -7.0 | 1 |
| 2025-08-08 | @ Ross County | W 1-0 | 1477 | 1470 | 26.5% | 32.2% | 41.2% | +7.0 | 6 |
| 2025-08-09 | Raith Rovers | L 0-1 | 1452 | 1449 | 42.7% | 31.7% | 25.6% | -7.2 | 1 |
| 2025-08-09 | @ Ayr United | W 1-0 | 1449 | 1452 | 25.6% | 31.7% | 42.7% | +7.2 | 4 |
| 2025-08-09 | Airdrieonians | W 2-0 | 1394 | 1382 | 44.1% | 31.1% | 24.8% | +9.1 | 4 |
| 2025-08-09 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-2 | 1382 | 1394 | 24.8% | 31.1% | 44.1% | -9.1 | 1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1436 | 1420 | 44.6% | 30.9% | 24.5% | -0.7 | 1 |
| 2025-08-09 | @ Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1420 | 1436 | 24.5% | 30.9% | 44.6% | +0.7 | 2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Arbroath | L 1-3 | 1383 | 1329 | 50.5% | 27.9% | 21.6% | -13.1 | 1 |
| 2025-08-09 | @ Queens Park | W 3-1 | 1329 | 1383 | 21.6% | 27.9% | 50.5% | +13.1 | 4 |
| 2025-08-22 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1456 | 1403 | 50.5% | 27.9% | 21.6% | +7.8 | 7 |
| 2025-08-22 | @ Raith Rovers | L 0-2 | 1403 | 1456 | 21.6% | 27.9% | 50.5% | -7.8 | 4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1373 | 1370 | 42.7% | 31.7% | 25.6% | -0.6 | 2 |
| 2025-08-23 | @ Airdrieonians | D 1-1 | 1370 | 1373 | 25.6% | 31.7% | 42.7% | +0.6 | 2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Ayr United | D 2-2 | 1421 | 1445 | 38.6% | 33.0% | 28.4% | -0.2 | 3 |
| 2025-08-23 | @ Greenock Morton | D 2-2 | 1445 | 1421 | 28.4% | 33.0% | 38.6% | +0.2 | 2 |
| 2025-08-23 | Partick Thistle | L 1-3 | 1463 | 1435 | 46.5% | 30.0% | 23.4% | -12.4 | 1 |
| 2025-08-23 | @ Ross County | W 3-1 | 1435 | 1463 | 23.4% | 30.0% | 46.5% | +12.4 | 4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Arbroath | W 3-0 | 1484 | 1342 | 64.3% | 18.7% | 17.0% | +7.9 | 9 |
| 2025-08-23 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-3 | 1342 | 1484 | 17.0% | 18.7% | 64.3% | -7.9 | 4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1334 | 1372 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 30.1% | +5.7 | 7 |
| 2025-08-30 | @ Arbroath | L 0-1 | 1372 | 1334 | 30.1% | 33.4% | 36.5% | -5.7 | 2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1445 | 1370 | 53.9% | 25.8% | 20.3% | -1.2 | 3 |
| 2025-08-30 | @ Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1370 | 1445 | 20.3% | 25.8% | 53.9% | +1.2 | 3 |
| 2025-08-30 | Ross County | D 2-2 | 1395 | 1451 | 33.9% | 33.6% | 32.5% | -0.0 | 5 |
| 2025-08-30 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 2-2 | 1451 | 1395 | 32.5% | 33.6% | 33.9% | +0.0 | 2 |
| 2025-08-30 | Raith Rovers | W 3-2 | 1448 | 1464 | 39.7% | 32.7% | 27.6% | +4.8 | 7 |
| 2025-08-30 | @ Partick Thistle | L 2-3 | 1464 | 1448 | 27.6% | 32.7% | 39.7% | -4.7 | 7 |
| 2025-08-30 | Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1492 | 1421 | 53.2% | 26.3% | 20.5% | -1.1 | 10 |
| 2025-08-30 | @ St. Johnstone | D 1-1 | 1421 | 1492 | 20.5% | 26.3% | 53.2% | +1.1 | 4 |
| 2025-09-06 | Raith Rovers | L 0-1 | 1422 | 1459 | 36.6% | 33.4% | 30.0% | -6.5 | 4 |
| 2025-09-06 | @ Greenock Morton | W 1-0 | 1459 | 1422 | 30.0% | 33.4% | 36.6% | +6.5 | 10 |
| 2025-09-06 | Arbroath | L 1-2 | 1451 | 1340 | 59.5% | 22.1% | 18.4% | -8.3 | 2 |
| 2025-09-06 | @ Ross County | W 2-1 | 1340 | 1451 | 18.4% | 22.1% | 59.5% | +8.4 | 10 |
| 2025-09-12 | Airdrieonians | W 2-1 | 1452 | 1366 | 55.6% | 24.7% | 19.7% | +3.4 | 10 |
| 2025-09-12 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1366 | 1452 | 19.7% | 24.7% | 55.6% | -3.4 | 2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-5 | 1348 | 1395 | 35.2% | 33.5% | 31.3% | -27.9 | 10 |
| 2025-09-13 | @ Arbroath | W 5-0 | 1395 | 1348 | 31.3% | 33.5% | 35.2% | +27.9 | 8 |
| 2025-09-13 | Ross County | D 1-1 | 1444 | 1442 | 42.5% | 31.8% | 25.7% | -0.6 | 4 |
| 2025-09-13 | @ Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1442 | 1444 | 25.7% | 31.8% | 42.5% | +0.5 | 3 |
| 2025-09-13 | Greenock Morton | D 0-0 | 1371 | 1416 | 35.6% | 33.5% | 30.9% | -0.2 | 4 |
| 2025-09-13 | @ Queens Park | D 0-0 | 1416 | 1371 | 30.9% | 33.5% | 35.6% | +0.2 | 5 |
| 2025-09-13 | St. Johnstone | L 0-2 | 1466 | 1490 | 38.5% | 33.0% | 28.5% | -12.6 | 10 |
| 2025-09-13 | @ Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1490 | 1466 | 28.5% | 33.0% | 38.5% | +12.6 | 13 |
| 2025-09-19 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-1 | 1503 | 1423 | 54.7% | 25.3% | 20.0% | +3.5 | 16 |
| 2025-09-19 | @ St. Johnstone | L 1-2 | 1423 | 1503 | 20.0% | 25.3% | 54.7% | -3.5 | 8 |
| 2025-09-20 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1363 | 1453 | 29.3% | 33.2% | 37.5% | +0.3 | 3 |
| 2025-09-20 | @ Airdrieonians | D 0-0 | 1453 | 1363 | 37.5% | 33.2% | 29.3% | -0.3 | 11 |
| 2025-09-20 | Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1320 | 1416 | 28.7% | 33.0% | 38.3% | +0.3 | 11 |
| 2025-09-20 | @ Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1416 | 1320 | 38.3% | 33.0% | 28.7% | -0.3 | 6 |
| 2025-09-20 | Queens Park | L 1-2 | 1443 | 1371 | 53.4% | 26.1% | 20.5% | -7.8 | 3 |
| 2025-09-20 | @ Ross County | W 2-1 | 1371 | 1443 | 20.5% | 26.1% | 53.4% | +7.8 | 7 |
| 2025-09-23 | St. Johnstone | L 1-2 | 1363 | 1507 | 23.9% | 30.5% | 45.6% | -4.4 | 3 |
| 2025-09-23 | @ Airdrieonians | W 2-1 | 1507 | 1363 | 45.6% | 30.5% | 23.9% | +4.4 | 19 |
| 2025-09-23 | Ayr United | L 0-1 | 1419 | 1444 | 38.6% | 33.0% | 28.4% | -6.7 | 8 |
| 2025-09-23 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 1-0 | 1444 | 1419 | 28.4% | 33.0% | 38.6% | +6.7 | 7 |
| 2025-09-27 | Airdrieonians | W 4-2 | 1450 | 1359 | 56.5% | 24.1% | 19.4% | +5.2 | 10 |
| 2025-09-27 | @ Ayr United | L 2-4 | 1359 | 1450 | 19.4% | 24.1% | 56.5% | -5.2 | 3 |
| 2025-09-27 | Partick Thistle | L 0-2 | 1413 | 1456 | 35.8% | 33.5% | 30.8% | -12.0 | 8 |
| 2025-09-27 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1456 | 1413 | 30.8% | 33.5% | 35.8% | +12.0 | 13 |
| 2025-09-27 | Ross County | D 1-1 | 1415 | 1435 | 39.2% | 32.8% | 28.0% | -0.4 | 7 |
| 2025-09-27 | @ Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1435 | 1415 | 28.0% | 32.8% | 39.2% | +0.4 | 4 |
| 2025-09-27 | St. Johnstone | L 1-2 | 1379 | 1511 | 24.9% | 31.2% | 43.9% | -4.6 | 7 |
| 2025-09-27 | @ Queens Park | W 2-1 | 1511 | 1379 | 43.9% | 31.2% | 24.9% | +4.6 | 22 |
| 2025-09-27 | Arbroath | W 3-0 | 1453 | 1321 | 62.9% | 19.7% | 17.4% | +8.2 | 14 |
| 2025-09-27 | @ Raith Rovers | L 0-3 | 1321 | 1453 | 17.4% | 19.7% | 62.9% | -8.2 | 11 |
| 2025-09-30 | Partick Thistle | L 0-1 | 1374 | 1468 | 28.9% | 33.1% | 38.0% | -5.5 | 7 |
| 2025-09-30 | @ Queens Park | W 1-0 | 1468 | 1374 | 38.0% | 33.1% | 28.9% | +5.5 | 16 |
| 2025-10-04 | Greenock Morton | L 1-2 | 1354 | 1415 | 33.1% | 33.6% | 33.3% | -5.7 | 3 |
| 2025-10-04 | @ Airdrieonians | W 2-1 | 1415 | 1354 | 33.3% | 33.6% | 33.1% | +5.7 | 10 |
| 2025-10-04 | Queens Park | D 0-0 | 1401 | 1369 | 47.1% | 29.7% | 23.1% | -0.9 | 9 |
| 2025-10-04 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 0-0 | 1369 | 1401 | 23.1% | 29.7% | 47.1% | +0.9 | 8 |
| 2025-10-04 | Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1473 | 1312 | 67.2% | 16.6% | 16.2% | -1.8 | 17 |
| 2025-10-04 | @ Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1312 | 1473 | 16.2% | 16.6% | 67.2% | +1.8 | 12 |
| 2025-10-04 | Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1436 | 1461 | 38.4% | 33.0% | 28.6% | +10.3 | 7 |
| 2025-10-04 | @ Ross County | L 0-2 | 1461 | 1436 | 28.6% | 33.0% | 38.4% | -10.3 | 14 |
| 2025-10-04 | Ayr United | D 0-0 | 1516 | 1455 | 51.5% | 27.3% | 21.2% | -1.2 | 23 |
| 2025-10-04 | @ St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1455 | 1516 | 21.2% | 27.3% | 51.5% | +1.2 | 11 |
| 2025-10-11 | Queens Park | W 4-1 | 1314 | 1370 | 33.9% | 33.6% | 32.5% | +13.8 | 15 |
| 2025-10-11 | @ Arbroath | L 1-4 | 1370 | 1314 | 32.5% | 33.6% | 33.9% | -13.8 | 8 |
| 2025-10-11 | Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1421 | 1472 | 34.6% | 33.6% | 31.8% | -0.1 | 11 |
| 2025-10-11 | @ Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1472 | 1421 | 31.8% | 33.6% | 34.6% | +0.1 | 18 |
| 2025-10-11 | Ayr United | L 0-2 | 1451 | 1457 | 41.4% | 32.2% | 26.5% | -13.3 | 14 |
| 2025-10-11 | @ Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1457 | 1451 | 26.5% | 32.2% | 41.4% | +13.2 | 14 |
| 2025-10-11 | Ross County | D 0-0 | 1514 | 1446 | 52.9% | 26.5% | 20.7% | -1.2 | 24 |
| 2025-10-11 | @ St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1446 | 1514 | 20.7% | 26.5% | 52.9% | +1.2 | 8 |
| 2025-10-17 | Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1400 | 1438 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 30.1% | +10.7 | 12 |
| 2025-10-17 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-2 | 1438 | 1400 | 30.1% | 33.4% | 36.5% | -10.7 | 14 |
| 2025-10-18 | St. Johnstone | W 3-1 | 1328 | 1513 | 20.9% | 26.9% | 52.1% | +13.3 | 18 |
| 2025-10-18 | @ Arbroath | L 1-3 | 1513 | 1328 | 52.1% | 26.9% | 20.9% | -13.3 | 24 |
| 2025-10-18 | Greenock Morton | W 2-1 | 1470 | 1421 | 49.9% | 28.3% | 21.9% | +4.0 | 17 |
| 2025-10-18 | @ Ayr United | L 1-2 | 1421 | 1470 | 21.9% | 28.3% | 49.9% | -4.0 | 11 |
| 2025-10-18 | Ross County | W 1-0 | 1472 | 1447 | 46.0% | 30.3% | 23.7% | +4.6 | 21 |
| 2025-10-18 | @ Partick Thistle | L 0-1 | 1447 | 1472 | 23.7% | 30.3% | 46.0% | -4.6 | 8 |
| 2025-10-18 | Airdrieonians | D 0-0 | 1356 | 1348 | 43.5% | 31.4% | 25.1% | -0.7 | 9 |
| 2025-10-18 | @ Queens Park | D 0-0 | 1348 | 1356 | 25.1% | 31.4% | 43.5% | +0.7 | 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | Ayr United | W 2-1 | 1476 | 1474 | 42.6% | 31.8% | 25.7% | +4.7 | 24 |
| 2025-10-21 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1474 | 1476 | 25.7% | 31.8% | 42.6% | -4.7 | 17 |
| 2025-10-21 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-4 | 1349 | 1410 | 33.0% | 33.6% | 33.4% | -21.7 | 4 |
| 2025-10-21 | @ Airdrieonians | W 4-0 | 1410 | 1349 | 33.4% | 33.6% | 33.0% | +21.7 | 15 |
| 2025-10-25 | Arbroath | W 1-0 | 1327 | 1341 | 40.1% | 32.6% | 27.4% | +5.3 | 7 |
| 2025-10-25 | @ Airdrieonians | L 0-1 | 1341 | 1327 | 27.4% | 32.6% | 40.1% | -5.3 | 18 |
| 2025-10-25 | St. Johnstone | L 0-4 | 1417 | 1500 | 30.2% | 33.4% | 36.5% | -20.3 | 11 |
| 2025-10-25 | @ Greenock Morton | W 4-0 | 1500 | 1417 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 30.2% | +20.3 | 27 |
| 2025-10-25 | Ayr United | D 0-0 | 1355 | 1469 | 26.6% | 32.3% | 41.1% | +0.5 | 10 |
| 2025-10-25 | @ Queens Park | D 0-0 | 1469 | 1355 | 41.1% | 32.3% | 26.6% | -0.5 | 18 |
| 2025-10-25 | Partick Thistle | W 2-0 | 1427 | 1481 | 34.2% | 33.6% | 32.2% | +11.2 | 17 |
| 2025-10-25 | @ Raith Rovers | L 0-2 | 1481 | 1427 | 32.2% | 33.6% | 34.2% | -11.2 | 24 |
| 2025-10-25 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 3-2 | 1442 | 1432 | 43.8% | 31.3% | 24.9% | +4.3 | 11 |
| 2025-10-25 | @ Ross County | L 2-3 | 1432 | 1442 | 24.9% | 31.3% | 43.8% | -4.3 | 15 |
| 2025-10-31 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-1 | 1469 | 1428 | 48.5% | 29.0% | 22.5% | -7.8 | 18 |
| 2025-10-31 | @ Ayr United | W 1-0 | 1428 | 1469 | 22.5% | 29.0% | 48.5% | +7.8 | 18 |
| 2025-11-01 | Ross County | W 3-0 | 1336 | 1447 | 27.0% | 32.4% | 40.6% | +19.0 | 21 |
| 2025-11-01 | @ Arbroath | L 0-3 | 1447 | 1336 | 40.6% | 32.4% | 27.0% | -19.0 | 11 |
| 2025-11-01 | Queens Park | W 5-0 | 1470 | 1356 | 60.0% | 21.7% | 18.3% | +14.3 | 27 |
| 2025-11-01 | @ Partick Thistle | L 0-5 | 1356 | 1470 | 18.3% | 21.7% | 60.0% | -14.3 | 10 |
| 2025-11-01 | Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1438 | 1396 | 48.7% | 28.9% | 22.4% | -0.9 | 18 |
| 2025-11-01 | @ Raith Rovers | D 1-1 | 1396 | 1438 | 22.4% | 28.9% | 48.7% | +0.9 | 12 |
| 2025-11-01 | Airdrieonians | W 3-0 | 1520 | 1332 | 71.2% | 13.9% | 15.0% | +6.4 | 30 |
| 2025-11-01 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-3 | 1332 | 1520 | 15.0% | 13.9% | 71.2% | -6.4 | 7 |
| 2025-11-07 | Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1326 | 1484 | 22.8% | 29.3% | 47.9% | +0.9 | 8 |
| 2025-11-07 | @ Airdrieonians | D 1-1 | 1484 | 1326 | 47.9% | 29.3% | 22.8% | -0.9 | 28 |
| 2025-11-08 | St. Johnstone | D 2-2 | 1436 | 1527 | 29.2% | 33.2% | 37.6% | +0.2 | 19 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 2-2 | 1527 | 1436 | 37.6% | 33.2% | 29.2% | -0.2 | 31 |
| 2025-11-08 | Arbroath | W 1-0 | 1397 | 1355 | 48.7% | 28.9% | 22.4% | +4.3 | 15 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Greenock Morton | L 0-1 | 1355 | 1397 | 22.4% | 28.9% | 48.7% | -4.3 | 21 |
| 2025-11-08 | Raith Rovers | W 2-1 | 1341 | 1437 | 28.6% | 33.0% | 38.4% | +6.3 | 13 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Queens Park | L 1-2 | 1437 | 1341 | 38.4% | 33.0% | 28.6% | -6.3 | 18 |
| 2025-11-08 | Ayr United | D 3-3 | 1428 | 1461 | 37.2% | 33.2% | 29.5% | -0.2 | 12 |
| 2025-11-08 | @ Ross County | D 3-3 | 1461 | 1428 | 29.5% | 33.2% | 37.2% | +0.2 | 19 |
| 2025-11-15 | Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1461 | 1351 | 59.4% | 22.1% | 18.4% | -1.4 | 20 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1351 | 1461 | 18.4% | 22.1% | 59.4% | +1.4 | 22 |
| 2025-11-15 | Airdrieonians | L 0-3 | 1431 | 1327 | 58.5% | 22.8% | 18.7% | -24.0 | 18 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Raith Rovers | W 3-0 | 1327 | 1431 | 18.7% | 22.8% | 58.5% | +24.0 | 11 |
| 2025-11-15 | Greenock Morton | L 0-3 | 1428 | 1402 | 46.2% | 30.2% | 23.6% | -20.7 | 12 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ Ross County | W 3-0 | 1402 | 1428 | 23.6% | 30.2% | 46.2% | +20.7 | 18 |
| 2025-11-15 | Queens Park | W 4-3 | 1526 | 1348 | 69.8% | 14.8% | 15.4% | +2.1 | 34 |
| 2025-11-15 | @ St. Johnstone | L 3-4 | 1348 | 1526 | 15.4% | 14.8% | 69.8% | -2.1 | 13 |
| 2025-11-22 | Ayr United | L 0-1 | 1351 | 1460 | 27.2% | 32.5% | 40.3% | -5.2 | 11 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1460 | 1351 | 40.3% | 32.5% | 27.2% | +5.2 | 23 |
| 2025-11-22 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1352 | 1407 | 34.1% | 33.6% | 32.4% | -0.1 | 23 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1407 | 1352 | 32.4% | 33.6% | 34.1% | +0.1 | 19 |
| 2025-11-22 | Greenock Morton | W 1-0 | 1436 | 1422 | 44.3% | 31.1% | 24.6% | +4.8 | 22 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-1 | 1422 | 1436 | 24.6% | 31.1% | 44.3% | -4.8 | 18 |
| 2025-11-22 | St. Johnstone | W 2-1 | 1483 | 1528 | 35.4% | 33.5% | 31.1% | +5.5 | 31 |
| 2025-11-22 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1528 | 1483 | 31.1% | 33.5% | 35.4% | -5.5 | 34 |
| 2025-11-25 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 1-0 | 1489 | 1441 | 49.7% | 28.4% | 21.9% | +4.2 | 34 |
| 2025-11-25 | @ Partick Thistle | L 0-1 | 1441 | 1489 | 21.9% | 28.4% | 49.7% | -4.2 | 22 |
| 2025-12-05 | Queens Park | W 2-1 | 1417 | 1346 | 53.4% | 26.1% | 20.5% | +3.6 | 21 |
| 2025-12-05 | @ Greenock Morton | L 1-2 | 1346 | 1417 | 20.5% | 26.1% | 53.4% | -3.6 | 13 |
| 2025-12-06 | Partick Thistle | D 0-0 | 1465 | 1493 | 38.0% | 33.1% | 28.9% | -0.3 | 24 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Ayr United | D 0-0 | 1493 | 1465 | 28.9% | 33.1% | 38.0% | +0.3 | 35 |
| 2025-12-06 | Arbroath | L 1-2 | 1436 | 1352 | 55.4% | 24.9% | 19.8% | -8.0 | 22 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-1 | 1352 | 1436 | 19.8% | 24.9% | 55.4% | +8.0 | 26 |
| 2025-12-06 | Airdrieonians | L 1-2 | 1407 | 1345 | 51.8% | 27.1% | 21.1% | -7.7 | 12 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ Ross County | W 2-1 | 1345 | 1407 | 21.1% | 27.1% | 51.8% | +7.7 | 14 |
| 2025-12-06 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1523 | 1407 | 60.3% | 21.5% | 18.2% | -1.6 | 35 |
| 2025-12-06 | @ St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1407 | 1523 | 18.2% | 21.5% | 60.3% | +1.6 | 20 |
| 2025-12-12 | St. Johnstone | L 2-4 | 1464 | 1521 | 33.7% | 33.6% | 32.6% | -9.0 | 24 |
| 2025-12-12 | @ Ayr United | W 4-2 | 1521 | 1464 | 32.6% | 33.6% | 33.7% | +9.0 | 38 |
| 2025-12-13 | Partick Thistle | W 2-1 | 1360 | 1493 | 24.8% | 31.2% | 44.0% | +6.9 | 29 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Arbroath | L 1-2 | 1493 | 1360 | 44.0% | 31.2% | 24.8% | -6.9 | 35 |
| 2025-12-13 | Airdrieonians | L 0-1 | 1421 | 1353 | 52.8% | 26.5% | 20.7% | -8.2 | 21 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Greenock Morton | W 1-0 | 1353 | 1421 | 20.7% | 26.5% | 52.8% | +8.2 | 17 |
| 2025-12-13 | Dunfermline Athletic | D 1-1 | 1342 | 1428 | 29.8% | 33.3% | 37.0% | +0.2 | 14 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1428 | 1342 | 37.0% | 33.3% | 29.8% | -0.2 | 23 |
| 2025-12-13 | Ross County | W 6-0 | 1409 | 1399 | 43.7% | 31.3% | 25.0% | +25.5 | 23 |
| 2025-12-13 | @ Raith Rovers | L 0-6 | 1399 | 1409 | 25.0% | 31.3% | 43.7% | -25.5 | 12 |
| 2025-12-20 | Queens Park | L 0-3 | 1361 | 1342 | 45.2% | 30.7% | 24.1% | -20.4 | 17 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Airdrieonians | W 3-0 | 1342 | 1361 | 24.1% | 30.7% | 45.2% | +20.4 | 17 |
| 2025-12-20 | Ayr United | L 2-3 | 1428 | 1455 | 38.1% | 33.1% | 28.8% | -6.0 | 23 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 3-2 | 1455 | 1428 | 28.8% | 33.1% | 38.1% | +6.0 | 27 |
| 2025-12-20 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1486 | 1434 | 50.3% | 28.0% | 21.7% | -1.1 | 36 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Partick Thistle | D 0-0 | 1434 | 1486 | 21.7% | 28.0% | 50.3% | +1.1 | 24 |
| 2025-12-20 | Arbroath | L 0-2 | 1374 | 1367 | 43.3% | 31.5% | 25.2% | -13.6 | 12 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ Ross County | W 2-0 | 1367 | 1374 | 25.2% | 31.5% | 43.3% | +13.7 | 32 |
| 2025-12-20 | Greenock Morton | W 5-0 | 1530 | 1413 | 60.6% | 21.3% | 18.1% | +14.1 | 41 |
| 2025-12-20 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-5 | 1413 | 1530 | 18.1% | 21.3% | 60.6% | -14.1 | 21 |
| 2025-12-27 | Airdrieonians | D 1-1 | 1381 | 1341 | 48.4% | 29.1% | 22.5% | -0.9 | 33 |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1341 | 1381 | 22.5% | 29.1% | 48.4% | +0.9 | 18 |
| 2025-12-27 | Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1399 | 1461 | 32.9% | 33.6% | 33.5% | +0.0 | 22 |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1461 | 1399 | 33.5% | 33.6% | 32.9% | -0.0 | 28 |
| 2025-12-27 | Partick Thistle | D 2-2 | 1363 | 1485 | 25.8% | 31.8% | 42.4% | +0.4 | 18 |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Queens Park | D 2-2 | 1485 | 1363 | 42.4% | 31.8% | 25.8% | -0.4 | 37 |
| 2025-12-27 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 1-2 | 1435 | 1422 | 44.2% | 31.1% | 24.7% | -6.9 | 24 |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Raith Rovers | W 2-1 | 1422 | 1435 | 24.7% | 31.1% | 44.2% | +6.9 | 26 |
| 2025-12-27 | St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1360 | 1544 | 21.0% | 27.0% | 52.0% | +1.2 | 13 |
| 2025-12-27 | @ Ross County | D 0-0 | 1544 | 1360 | 52.0% | 27.0% | 21.0% | -1.2 | 42 |
| 2026-01-03 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1342 | 1428 | 29.7% | 33.3% | 37.0% | +0.3 | 19 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Airdrieonians | D 0-0 | 1428 | 1342 | 37.0% | 33.3% | 29.7% | -0.3 | 25 |
| 2026-01-03 | Greenock Morton | W 3-2 | 1485 | 1399 | 55.6% | 24.7% | 19.7% | +3.3 | 40 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ Partick Thistle | L 2-3 | 1399 | 1485 | 19.7% | 24.7% | 55.6% | -3.3 | 22 |
| 2026-01-03 | Arbroath | W 1-0 | 1543 | 1380 | 67.6% | 16.4% | 16.0% | +2.6 | 45 |
| 2026-01-03 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-1 | 1380 | 1543 | 16.0% | 16.4% | 67.6% | -2.6 | 33 |
| 2026-01-09 | Partick Thistle | W 2-0 | 1361 | 1488 | 25.4% | 31.6% | 43.0% | +13.6 | 16 |
| 2026-01-09 | @ Ross County | L 0-2 | 1488 | 1361 | 43.0% | 31.6% | 25.4% | -13.6 | 40 |
| 2026-01-10 | Airdrieonians | D 1-1 | 1461 | 1342 | 60.9% | 21.1% | 18.0% | -1.5 | 29 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1342 | 1461 | 18.0% | 21.1% | 60.9% | +1.5 | 20 |
| 2026-01-10 | Arbroath | L 2-3 | 1428 | 1377 | 50.1% | 28.1% | 21.8% | -7.1 | 25 |
| 2026-01-10 | @ Raith Rovers | W 3-2 | 1377 | 1428 | 21.8% | 28.1% | 50.1% | +7.1 | 36 |
| 2026-01-23 | Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1384 | 1396 | 40.5% | 32.5% | 27.0% | -0.4 | 37 |
| 2026-01-23 | @ Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1396 | 1384 | 27.0% | 32.5% | 40.5% | +0.4 | 23 |
| 2026-01-24 | Ross County | L 0-1 | 1344 | 1375 | 37.5% | 33.2% | 29.3% | -6.6 | 20 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1375 | 1344 | 29.3% | 33.2% | 37.5% | +6.6 | 19 |
| 2026-01-24 | Ayr United | W 2-1 | 1475 | 1460 | 44.5% | 31.0% | 24.5% | +4.5 | 43 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1460 | 1475 | 24.5% | 31.0% | 44.5% | -4.5 | 29 |
| 2026-01-24 | Queens Park | W 4-1 | 1421 | 1363 | 51.2% | 27.5% | 21.3% | +9.4 | 28 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ Raith Rovers | L 1-4 | 1363 | 1421 | 21.3% | 27.5% | 51.2% | -9.4 | 18 |
| 2026-01-24 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-1 | 1546 | 1429 | 60.5% | 21.4% | 18.1% | -8.9 | 45 |
| 2026-01-24 | @ St. Johnstone | W 1-0 | 1429 | 1546 | 18.1% | 21.4% | 60.5% | +8.9 | 29 |
| 2026-01-30 | Partick Thistle | D 2-2 | 1537 | 1479 | 51.2% | 27.5% | 21.3% | -0.8 | 46 |
| 2026-01-30 | @ St. Johnstone | D 2-2 | 1479 | 1537 | 21.3% | 27.5% | 51.2% | +0.8 | 44 |
| 2026-01-31 | Raith Rovers | W 2-1 | 1455 | 1430 | 46.1% | 30.2% | 23.7% | +4.3 | 32 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Ayr United | L 1-2 | 1430 | 1455 | 23.7% | 30.2% | 46.1% | -4.3 | 28 |
| 2026-01-31 | Airdrieonians | L 0-2 | 1438 | 1337 | 58.0% | 23.1% | 18.9% | -16.4 | 29 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1337 | 1438 | 18.9% | 23.1% | 58.0% | +16.4 | 23 |
| 2026-01-31 | Ross County | W 2-1 | 1396 | 1382 | 44.4% | 31.0% | 24.6% | +4.5 | 26 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Greenock Morton | L 1-2 | 1382 | 1396 | 24.6% | 31.0% | 44.4% | -4.5 | 19 |
| 2026-01-31 | Arbroath | W 2-1 | 1354 | 1384 | 37.7% | 33.2% | 29.2% | +5.2 | 21 |
| 2026-01-31 | @ Queens Park | L 1-2 | 1384 | 1354 | 29.2% | 33.2% | 37.7% | -5.2 | 37 |
| 2026-02-03 | Ross County | L 0-1 | 1359 | 1377 | 39.5% | 32.8% | 27.8% | -6.8 | 21 |
| 2026-02-03 | @ Queens Park | W 1-0 | 1377 | 1359 | 27.8% | 32.8% | 39.5% | +6.8 | 22 |
| 2026-02-13 | St. Johnstone | L 0-1 | 1353 | 1536 | 21.1% | 27.2% | 51.7% | -4.0 | 23 |
| 2026-02-13 | @ Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1536 | 1353 | 51.7% | 27.2% | 21.1% | +4.0 | 49 |
| 2026-02-14 | Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1400 | 1426 | 38.4% | 33.0% | 28.6% | -0.4 | 27 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ Greenock Morton | D 0-0 | 1426 | 1400 | 28.6% | 33.0% | 38.4% | +0.4 | 29 |
| 2026-02-14 | Queens Park | L 0-1 | 1384 | 1352 | 47.1% | 29.7% | 23.1% | -7.7 | 22 |
| 2026-02-14 | @ Ross County | W 1-0 | 1352 | 1384 | 23.1% | 29.7% | 47.1% | +7.7 | 24 |
| 2026-02-17 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1400 | 1422 | 39.0% | 32.9% | 28.1% | +10.2 | 30 |
| 2026-02-17 | @ Greenock Morton | L 0-2 | 1422 | 1400 | 28.1% | 32.9% | 39.0% | -10.2 | 29 |
| 2026-02-20 | St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1426 | 1540 | 26.7% | 32.3% | 41.1% | +0.5 | 30 |
| 2026-02-20 | @ Raith Rovers | D 0-0 | 1540 | 1426 | 41.1% | 32.3% | 26.7% | -0.5 | 50 |
| 2026-02-21 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 4-2 | 1379 | 1411 | 37.3% | 33.2% | 29.5% | +8.2 | 40 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Arbroath | L 2-4 | 1411 | 1379 | 29.5% | 33.2% | 37.3% | -8.2 | 29 |
| 2026-02-21 | Ross County | D 0-0 | 1460 | 1376 | 55.2% | 24.9% | 19.8% | -1.4 | 33 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Ayr United | D 0-0 | 1376 | 1460 | 19.8% | 24.9% | 55.2% | +1.4 | 23 |
| 2026-02-21 | Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1480 | 1349 | 62.6% | 19.9% | 17.5% | +3.0 | 47 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Partick Thistle | L 0-1 | 1349 | 1480 | 17.5% | 19.9% | 62.6% | -3.0 | 23 |
| 2026-02-21 | Greenock Morton | W 3-2 | 1360 | 1410 | 34.7% | 33.6% | 31.8% | +5.3 | 27 |
| 2026-02-21 | @ Queens Park | L 2-3 | 1410 | 1360 | 31.8% | 33.6% | 34.7% | -5.3 | 30 |
| 2026-02-24 | St. Johnstone | D 1-1 | 1365 | 1540 | 21.6% | 27.9% | 50.5% | +1.0 | 28 |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1540 | 1365 | 50.5% | 27.9% | 21.6% | -1.0 | 51 |
| 2026-02-24 | Partick Thistle | D 2-2 | 1403 | 1483 | 30.6% | 33.4% | 35.9% | +0.1 | 30 |
| 2026-02-24 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 2-2 | 1483 | 1403 | 35.9% | 33.4% | 30.6% | -0.1 | 48 |
| 2026-02-28 | Greenock Morton | W 3-1 | 1346 | 1405 | 33.5% | 33.6% | 32.9% | +9.9 | 26 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Airdrieonians | L 1-3 | 1405 | 1346 | 32.9% | 33.6% | 33.5% | -9.9 | 30 |
| 2026-02-28 | Queens Park | W 1-0 | 1403 | 1366 | 48.0% | 29.3% | 22.7% | +4.4 | 33 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-1 | 1366 | 1403 | 22.7% | 29.3% | 48.0% | -4.4 | 28 |
| 2026-02-28 | Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1483 | 1387 | 57.2% | 23.7% | 19.1% | -1.5 | 49 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Partick Thistle | D 0-0 | 1387 | 1483 | 19.1% | 23.7% | 57.2% | +1.5 | 41 |
| 2026-02-28 | Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1378 | 1427 | 34.8% | 33.6% | 31.6% | +11.1 | 26 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ Ross County | L 0-2 | 1427 | 1378 | 31.6% | 33.6% | 34.8% | -11.1 | 30 |
| 2026-02-28 | Ayr United | W 3-1 | 1539 | 1458 | 54.7% | 25.3% | 20.0% | +6.1 | 54 |
| 2026-02-28 | @ St. Johnstone | L 1-3 | 1458 | 1539 | 20.0% | 25.3% | 54.7% | -6.1 | 33 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ross County | W 3-0 | 1408 | 1389 | 45.2% | 30.7% | 24.1% | +12.9 | 36 |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-3 | 1389 | 1408 | 24.1% | 30.7% | 45.2% | -12.9 | 26 |
| 2026-03-03 | Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1388 | 1452 | 32.7% | 33.6% | 33.7% | +0.0 | 42 |
| 2026-03-03 | @ Arbroath | D 1-1 | 1452 | 1388 | 33.7% | 33.6% | 32.7% | -0.0 | 34 |
| 2026-03-07 | Ross County | D 0-0 | 1388 | 1376 | 44.1% | 31.1% | 24.7% | -0.7 | 43 |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1376 | 1388 | 24.7% | 31.1% | 44.1% | +0.7 | 27 |
| 2026-03-07 | St. Johnstone | L 0-2 | 1395 | 1545 | 23.4% | 30.0% | 46.6% | -8.6 | 30 |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Greenock Morton | W 2-0 | 1545 | 1395 | 46.6% | 30.0% | 23.4% | +8.6 | 57 |
| 2026-03-07 | Airdrieonians | W 1-0 | 1362 | 1356 | 43.0% | 31.6% | 25.4% | +4.9 | 31 |
| 2026-03-07 | @ Queens Park | L 0-1 | 1356 | 1362 | 25.4% | 31.6% | 43.0% | -4.9 | 26 |
| 2026-03-10 | Queens Park | L 1-2 | 1452 | 1366 | 55.6% | 24.7% | 19.7% | -8.0 | 34 |
| 2026-03-10 | @ Ayr United | W 2-1 | 1366 | 1452 | 19.7% | 24.7% | 55.6% | +8.0 | 34 |
| 2026-03-13 | Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1387 | 1481 | 28.8% | 33.1% | 38.2% | -5.2 | 30 |
| 2026-03-13 | @ Greenock Morton | W 2-1 | 1481 | 1387 | 38.2% | 33.1% | 28.8% | +5.2 | 52 |
| 2026-03-14 | Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1351 | 1388 | 36.8% | 33.3% | 29.9% | -0.2 | 27 |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Airdrieonians | D 0-0 | 1388 | 1351 | 29.9% | 33.3% | 36.8% | +0.2 | 44 |
| 2026-03-14 | Raith Rovers | W 3-0 | 1421 | 1416 | 43.0% | 31.6% | 25.4% | +13.5 | 39 |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-3 | 1416 | 1421 | 25.4% | 31.6% | 43.0% | -13.5 | 30 |
| 2026-03-14 | Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1374 | 1444 | 31.9% | 33.6% | 34.5% | +0.1 | 35 |
| 2026-03-14 | @ Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1444 | 1374 | 34.5% | 33.6% | 31.9% | -0.1 | 35 |
| 2026-03-14 | Ross County | W 1-0 | 1553 | 1376 | 69.6% | 15.0% | 15.4% | +2.5 | 60 |
| 2026-03-14 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-1 | 1376 | 1553 | 15.4% | 15.0% | 69.6% | -2.5 | 27 |
| 2026-03-20 | St. Johnstone | D 0-0 | 1486 | 1556 | 32.0% | 33.6% | 34.5% | +0.1 | 53 |
| 2026-03-20 | @ Partick Thistle | D 0-0 | 1556 | 1486 | 34.5% | 33.6% | 32.0% | -0.1 | 61 |
| 2026-03-21 | Queens Park | W 1-0 | 1388 | 1375 | 44.3% | 31.1% | 24.7% | +4.8 | 47 |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Arbroath | L 0-1 | 1375 | 1388 | 24.7% | 31.1% | 44.3% | -4.8 | 35 |
| 2026-03-21 | Greenock Morton | L 0-1 | 1444 | 1381 | 52.0% | 27.0% | 21.0% | -8.2 | 35 |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Ayr United | W 1-0 | 1381 | 1444 | 21.0% | 27.0% | 52.0% | +8.2 | 33 |
| 2026-03-21 | Airdrieonians | W 3-1 | 1402 | 1351 | 50.2% | 28.1% | 21.7% | +6.8 | 33 |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Raith Rovers | L 1-3 | 1351 | 1402 | 21.7% | 28.1% | 50.2% | -6.8 | 27 |
| 2026-03-21 | Dunfermline Athletic | D 2-2 | 1374 | 1434 | 33.3% | 33.6% | 33.1% | -0.0 | 28 |
| 2026-03-21 | @ Ross County | D 2-2 | 1434 | 1374 | 33.1% | 33.6% | 33.3% | +0.0 | 40 |
| 2026-03-24 | Partick Thistle | L 0-2 | 1409 | 1486 | 30.9% | 33.5% | 35.6% | -10.9 | 33 |
| 2026-03-24 | @ Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1486 | 1409 | 35.6% | 33.5% | 30.9% | +10.9 | 56 |
| 2026-03-27 | Ross County | W 3-1 | 1497 | 1374 | 61.5% | 20.7% | 17.8% | +5.1 | 59 |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-3 | 1374 | 1497 | 17.8% | 20.7% | 61.5% | -5.1 | 28 |
| 2026-03-27 | Ayr United | W 3-0 | 1398 | 1436 | 36.5% | 33.4% | 30.1% | +15.5 | 36 |
| 2026-03-27 | @ Raith Rovers | L 0-3 | 1436 | 1398 | 30.1% | 33.4% | 36.5% | -15.5 | 35 |
| 2026-03-28 | Arbroath | W 2-1 | 1390 | 1393 | 41.8% | 32.0% | 26.2% | +4.8 | 36 |
| 2026-03-28 | @ Greenock Morton | L 1-2 | 1393 | 1390 | 26.2% | 32.0% | 41.8% | -4.8 | 47 |
| 2026-03-28 | Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1556 | 1370 | 70.9% | 14.1% | 15.0% | -1.9 | 62 |
| 2026-03-28 | @ St. Johnstone | D 1-1 | 1370 | 1556 | 15.0% | 14.1% | 70.9% | +1.9 | 36 |
| 2026-04-04 | St. Johnstone | L 2-4 | 1388 | 1554 | 22.2% | 28.7% | 49.1% | -6.3 | 47 |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Arbroath | W 4-2 | 1554 | 1388 | 49.1% | 28.7% | 22.2% | +6.3 | 65 |
| 2026-04-04 | Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1420 | 1502 | 30.3% | 33.4% | 36.3% | +0.2 | 36 |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Ayr United | D 1-1 | 1502 | 1420 | 36.3% | 33.4% | 30.3% | -0.2 | 60 |
| 2026-04-04 | Greenock Morton | W 3-1 | 1434 | 1394 | 48.4% | 29.1% | 22.5% | +7.1 | 43 |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 1-3 | 1394 | 1434 | 22.5% | 29.1% | 48.4% | -7.1 | 36 |
| 2026-04-04 | Airdrieonians | L 0-4 | 1369 | 1344 | 46.0% | 30.3% | 23.7% | -27.0 | 28 |
| 2026-04-04 | @ Ross County | W 4-0 | 1344 | 1369 | 23.7% | 30.3% | 46.0% | +27.0 | 30 |
| 2026-04-07 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-3 | 1421 | 1441 | 39.1% | 32.9% | 28.1% | -18.5 | 36 |
| 2026-04-07 | @ Ayr United | W 3-0 | 1441 | 1421 | 28.1% | 32.9% | 39.1% | +18.6 | 46 |
| 2026-04-10 | Ross County | W 1-0 | 1372 | 1342 | 46.8% | 29.9% | 23.3% | +4.5 | 39 |
| 2026-04-10 | @ Queens Park | L 0-1 | 1342 | 1372 | 23.3% | 29.9% | 46.8% | -4.5 | 28 |
| 2026-04-11 | Arbroath | W 1-0 | 1402 | 1382 | 45.4% | 30.6% | 24.0% | +4.7 | 39 |
| 2026-04-11 | @ Ayr United | L 0-1 | 1382 | 1402 | 24.0% | 30.6% | 45.4% | -4.7 | 47 |
| 2026-04-11 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1502 | 1460 | 48.8% | 28.9% | 22.4% | +8.2 | 63 |
| 2026-04-11 | @ Partick Thistle | L 0-2 | 1460 | 1502 | 22.4% | 28.9% | 48.8% | -8.2 | 46 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greenock Morton | W 3-2 | 1414 | 1387 | 46.3% | 30.1% | 23.5% | +4.1 | 39 |
| 2026-04-11 | @ Raith Rovers | L 2-3 | 1387 | 1414 | 23.5% | 30.1% | 46.3% | -4.1 | 36 |
| 2026-04-11 | Airdrieonians | W 4-0 | 1560 | 1371 | 71.3% | 13.8% | 14.9% | +8.4 | 68 |
| 2026-04-11 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-4 | 1371 | 1560 | 14.9% | 13.8% | 71.3% | -8.3 | 30 |
| 2026-04-14 | Dunfermline Athletic | D 2-2 | 1363 | 1452 | 29.4% | 33.2% | 37.3% | +0.2 | 31 |
| 2026-04-14 | @ Airdrieonians | D 2-2 | 1452 | 1363 | 37.3% | 33.2% | 29.4% | -0.2 | 47 |
| 2026-04-14 | Raith Rovers | L 0-2 | 1376 | 1418 | 36.0% | 33.4% | 30.6% | -12.1 | 39 |
| 2026-04-14 | @ Queens Park | W 2-0 | 1418 | 1376 | 30.6% | 33.4% | 36.0% | +12.1 | 42 |
| 2026-04-18 | Partick Thistle | D 2-2 | 1363 | 1510 | 23.6% | 30.2% | 46.2% | +0.6 | 32 |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Airdrieonians | D 2-2 | 1510 | 1363 | 46.2% | 30.2% | 23.6% | -0.6 | 64 |
| 2026-04-18 | Raith Rovers | W 2-1 | 1377 | 1430 | 34.3% | 33.6% | 32.1% | +5.6 | 50 |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Arbroath | L 1-2 | 1430 | 1377 | 32.1% | 33.6% | 34.3% | -5.6 | 42 |
| 2026-04-18 | Queens Park | D 0-0 | 1383 | 1364 | 45.1% | 30.7% | 24.2% | -0.8 | 37 |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Greenock Morton | D 0-0 | 1364 | 1383 | 24.2% | 30.7% | 45.1% | +0.8 | 40 |
| 2026-04-18 | Ayr United | W 2-1 | 1337 | 1407 | 32.0% | 33.6% | 34.4% | +5.9 | 31 |
| 2026-04-18 | @ Ross County | L 1-2 | 1407 | 1337 | 34.4% | 33.6% | 32.0% | -5.9 | 39 |
| 2026-04-21 | St. Johnstone | L 0-2 | 1452 | 1568 | 26.3% | 32.1% | 41.5% | -9.6 | 47 |
| 2026-04-21 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-0 | 1568 | 1452 | 41.5% | 32.1% | 26.3% | +9.6 | 71 |
| 2026-04-24 | Raith Rovers | W 2-0 | 1578 | 1424 | 66.1% | 17.4% | 16.5% | +5.2 | 74 |
| 2026-04-24 | @ St. Johnstone | L 0-2 | 1424 | 1578 | 16.5% | 17.4% | 66.1% | -5.2 | 42 |
| 2026-04-25 | Ayr United | W 2-1 | 1364 | 1401 | 36.6% | 33.4% | 30.0% | +5.3 | 35 |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Airdrieonians | L 1-2 | 1401 | 1364 | 30.0% | 33.4% | 36.6% | -5.4 | 39 |
| 2026-04-25 | Partick Thistle | D 0-0 | 1382 | 1510 | 25.3% | 31.5% | 43.1% | +0.7 | 51 |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1510 | 1382 | 43.1% | 31.5% | 25.3% | -0.7 | 65 |
| 2026-04-25 | Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-2 | 1365 | 1442 | 30.9% | 33.5% | 35.6% | -10.9 | 40 |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Queens Park | W 2-0 | 1442 | 1365 | 35.6% | 33.5% | 30.9% | +10.9 | 50 |
| 2026-04-25 | Greenock Morton | W 4-0 | 1343 | 1382 | 36.4% | 33.4% | 30.2% | +20.4 | 34 |
| 2026-04-25 | @ Ross County | L 0-4 | 1382 | 1343 | 30.2% | 33.4% | 36.4% | -20.4 | 37 |
| 2026-05-01 | St. Johnstone | L 0-1 | 1396 | 1583 | 20.8% | 26.7% | 52.5% | -3.9 | 39 |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Ayr United | W 1-0 | 1583 | 1396 | 52.5% | 26.7% | 20.8% | +4.0 | 77 |
| 2026-05-01 | Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1453 | 1383 | 53.1% | 26.4% | 20.6% | -1.3 | 51 |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 0-0 | 1383 | 1453 | 20.6% | 26.4% | 53.1% | +1.3 | 52 |
| 2026-05-01 | Airdrieonians | D 1-1 | 1362 | 1369 | 41.2% | 32.2% | 26.6% | -0.5 | 38 |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Greenock Morton | D 1-1 | 1369 | 1362 | 26.6% | 32.2% | 41.2% | +0.5 | 36 |
| 2026-05-01 | Queens Park | D 1-1 | 1509 | 1354 | 66.3% | 17.2% | 16.4% | -1.7 | 66 |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1354 | 1509 | 16.4% | 17.2% | 66.3% | +1.7 | 41 |
| 2026-05-01 | Ross County | W 3-2 | 1419 | 1364 | 50.8% | 27.7% | 21.5% | +3.7 | 45 |
| 2026-05-01 | @ Raith Rovers | L 2-3 | 1364 | 1419 | 21.5% | 27.7% | 50.8% | -3.7 | 34 |
Playoff Game Log
Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Arbroath | W 1-0 | 1452 | 1384 | 52.7% | 26.6% | 20.7% | +3.9 | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-05 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | L 0-1 | 1384 | 1452 | 20.7% | 26.6% | 52.7% | -3.9 | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Dunfermline Athletic | D 0-0 | 1380 | 1456 | 31.2% | 33.5% | 35.3% | +0.1 | 0-1-1 |
| 2026-05-08 | @ Arbroath | D 0-0 | 1456 | 1380 | 35.3% | 33.5% | 31.2% | -0.1 | 1-0-1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Partick Thistle | D 1-1 | 1455 | 1507 | 34.4% | 33.6% | 32.0% | -0.1 | 1-0-2 |
| 2026-05-12 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | D 1-1 | 1507 | 1455 | 32.0% | 33.6% | 34.4% | +0.1 | 0-0-1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Dunfermline Athletic | W 2-1 | 1508 | 1455 | 50.3% | 28.0% | 21.7% | +3.9 | 1-0-1 |
| 2026-05-15 | @ Partick Thistle | L 1-2 | 1455 | 1508 | 21.7% | 28.0% | 50.3% | -3.9 | 1-1-2 |
| 2026-05-25 | Partick Thistle | W 1-0 | 1509 | 1511 | 42.0% | 32.0% | 26.1% | +5.0 | 1-0 |
| 2026-05-25 | @ St. Mirren | L 0-1 | 1511 | 1509 | 26.1% | 32.0% | 42.0% | -5.1 | 1-1-1 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2026-01-24 | 18.13% | Dunfermline Athletic | 1429 | 1 | @ St. Johnstone | 1546 | 0 |
| 2 | 2025-09-06 | 18.41% | Arbroath | 1340 | 2 | @ Ross County | 1451 | 1 |
| 3 | 2025-11-15 | 18.73% | Airdrieonians | 1327 | 3 | @ Raith Rovers | 1431 | 0 |
| 4 | 2026-01-31 | 18.89% | Airdrieonians | 1337 | 2 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | 1438 | 0 |
| 5 | 2026-03-10 | 19.68% | Queens Park | 1366 | 2 | @ Ayr United | 1452 | 1 |
| 6 | 2025-12-06 | 19.77% | Arbroath | 1352 | 2 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | 1436 | 1 |
| 7 | 2025-09-20 | 20.46% | Queens Park | 1371 | 2 | @ Ross County | 1443 | 1 |
| 8 | 2025-12-13 | 20.69% | Airdrieonians | 1353 | 1 | @ Greenock Morton | 1421 | 0 |
| 9 | 2025-10-18 | 20.95% | @ Arbroath | 1328 | 3 | St. Johnstone | 1513 | 1 |
| 10 | 2026-03-21 | 21.00% | Greenock Morton | 1381 | 1 | @ Ayr United | 1444 | 0 |
| 11 | 2025-12-06 | 21.08% | Airdrieonians | 1345 | 2 | @ Ross County | 1407 | 1 |
| 12 | 2025-08-09 | 21.58% | Arbroath | 1329 | 3 | @ Queens Park | 1383 | 1 |
| 13 | 2026-01-10 | 21.76% | Arbroath | 1377 | 3 | @ Raith Rovers | 1428 | 2 |
| 14 | 2025-10-31 | 22.46% | Dunfermline Athletic | 1428 | 1 | @ Ayr United | 1469 | 0 |
| 15 | 2026-02-14 | 23.13% | Queens Park | 1352 | 1 | @ Ross County | 1384 | 0 |
| 16 | 2025-08-23 | 23.43% | Partick Thistle | 1435 | 3 | @ Ross County | 1463 | 1 |
| 17 | 2025-11-15 | 23.58% | Greenock Morton | 1402 | 3 | @ Ross County | 1428 | 0 |
| 18 | 2026-04-04 | 23.69% | Airdrieonians | 1344 | 4 | @ Ross County | 1369 | 0 |
| 19 | 2025-12-20 | 24.15% | Queens Park | 1342 | 3 | @ Airdrieonians | 1361 | 0 |
| 20 | 2025-12-27 | 24.67% | Dunfermline Athletic | 1422 | 2 | @ Raith Rovers | 1435 | 1 |
| 21 | 2025-12-13 | 24.79% | @ Arbroath | 1360 | 2 | Partick Thistle | 1493 | 1 |
| 22 | 2025-12-20 | 25.24% | Arbroath | 1367 | 2 | @ Ross County | 1374 | 0 |
| 23 | 2026-01-09 | 25.38% | @ Ross County | 1361 | 2 | Partick Thistle | 1488 | 0 |
| 24 | 2025-08-09 | 25.60% | Raith Rovers | 1449 | 1 | @ Ayr United | 1452 | 0 |
| 25 | 2025-10-11 | 26.46% | Ayr United | 1457 | 2 | @ Raith Rovers | 1451 | 0 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2025-09-13 | 27.86 | Dunfermline Athletic | 5 | 1395 | 31.28% | @ Arbroath | 0 | 1348 | 35.20% | |
| 2 | 2026-04-04 | 26.98 | Airdrieonians | 4 | 1344 | 23.69% | @ Ross County | 0 | 1369 | 46.03% | |
| 3 | 2025-12-13 | 25.49 | @ Raith Rovers | 6 | 1409 | 43.67% | Ross County | 0 | 1399 | 25.00% | |
| 4 | 2025-11-15 | 23.99 | Airdrieonians | 3 | 1327 | 18.73% | @ Raith Rovers | 0 | 1431 | 58.50% | |
| 5 | 2025-10-21 | 21.67 | Dunfermline Athletic | 4 | 1410 | 33.36% | @ Airdrieonians | 0 | 1349 | 33.03% | |
| 6 | 2025-11-15 | 20.71 | Greenock Morton | 3 | 1402 | 23.58% | @ Ross County | 0 | 1428 | 46.25% | |
| 7 | 2025-12-20 | 20.40 | Queens Park | 3 | 1342 | 24.15% | @ Airdrieonians | 0 | 1361 | 45.16% | |
| 8 | 2026-04-25 | 20.38 | @ Ross County | 4 | 1343 | 36.36% | Greenock Morton | 0 | 1382 | 30.25% | |
| 9 | 2025-10-25 | 20.34 | St. Johnstone | 4 | 1500 | 36.47% | @ Greenock Morton | 0 | 1417 | 30.17% | |
| 10 | 2025-11-01 | 19.02 | @ Arbroath | 3 | 1336 | 26.97% | Ross County | 0 | 1447 | 40.61% | |
| 11 | 2026-04-07 | 18.55 | Dunfermline Athletic | 3 | 1441 | 28.06% | @ Ayr United | 0 | 1421 | 39.09% | |
| 12 | 2026-01-31 | 16.44 | Airdrieonians | 2 | 1337 | 18.89% | @ Dunfermline Athletic | 0 | 1438 | 58.00% | |
| 13 | 2026-03-27 | 15.54 | @ Raith Rovers | 3 | 1398 | 36.54% | Ayr United | 0 | 1436 | 30.10% | |
| 14 | 2025-08-02 | 14.38 | @ St. Johnstone | 5 | 1462 | 44.06% | Partick Thistle | 1 | 1450 | 24.77% | |
| 15 | 2025-11-01 | 14.35 | @ Partick Thistle | 5 | 1470 | 60.01% | Queens Park | 0 | 1356 | 18.27% | |
| 16 | 2025-12-20 | 14.14 | @ St. Johnstone | 5 | 1530 | 60.55% | Greenock Morton | 0 | 1413 | 18.10% | |
| 17 | 2025-10-11 | 13.82 | @ Arbroath | 4 | 1314 | 33.93% | Queens Park | 1 | 1370 | 32.47% | |
| 18 | 2025-12-20 | 13.65 | Arbroath | 2 | 1367 | 25.24% | @ Ross County | 0 | 1374 | 43.27% | |
| 19 | 2026-01-09 | 13.61 | @ Ross County | 2 | 1361 | 25.38% | Partick Thistle | 0 | 1488 | 43.05% | |
| 20 | 2026-03-14 | 13.54 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | 3 | 1421 | 42.97% | Raith Rovers | 0 | 1416 | 25.42% | |
| 21 | 2025-10-18 | 13.33 | @ Arbroath | 3 | 1328 | 20.95% | St. Johnstone | 1 | 1513 | 52.12% | |
| 22 | 2025-10-11 | 13.26 | Ayr United | 2 | 1457 | 26.46% | @ Raith Rovers | 0 | 1451 | 41.36% | |
| 23 | 2025-08-09 | 13.07 | Arbroath | 3 | 1329 | 21.58% | @ Queens Park | 1 | 1383 | 50.54% | |
| 24 | 2026-03-03 | 12.88 | @ Dunfermline Athletic | 3 | 1408 | 45.18% | Ross County | 0 | 1389 | 24.15% | |
| 25 | 2025-09-13 | 12.64 | St. Johnstone | 2 | 1490 | 28.49% | @ Raith Rovers | 0 | 1466 | 38.52% | |