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2025-26 Championship Season

180 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Promoted

St. Johnstone

77 pts

Relegated

Ross County

34 pts

Airdrieonians · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Arbroath

10.77 points above expected

52 points · 41.23 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ayr United

14.49 points below expected

39 points · 53.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 St. Johnstone Promoted 36 22 11 3 77 67 25 +42 67.02 +9.98
2 Partick Thistle 36 17 15 4 66 53 36 +17 59.12 +6.88
3 Arbroath 36 13 13 10 52 43 41 +2 41.23 +10.77
4 Dunfermline Athletic 36 14 9 13 51 52 41 +11 50.40 +0.60
5 Raith Rovers 36 12 9 15 45 43 42 +1 50.23 -5.23
6 Queens Park 36 9 14 13 41 35 48 -13 39.55 +1.45
7 Ayr United 36 8 15 13 39 38 47 -9 53.49 -14.49
8 Greenock Morton 36 8 14 14 38 36 52 -16 46.62 -8.62
9 Airdrieonians Relegated 36 8 12 16 36 35 49 -14 40.09 -4.09
10 Ross County Relegated 36 8 10 18 34 36 57 -21 44.01 -10.01

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Arbroath 52 41.23 +10.77
2 St. Johnstone 77 67.02 +9.98
3 Partick Thistle 66 59.12 +6.88
4 Queens Park 41 39.55 +1.45
5 Dunfermline Athletic 51 50.40 +0.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ayr United 39 53.49 -14.49
2 Ross County 34 44.01 -10.01
3 Greenock Morton 38 46.62 -8.62
4 Raith Rovers 45 50.23 -5.23
5 Airdrieonians 36 40.09 -4.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Partick Thistle 5 Aug 23 – Sep 30 1 in 116
2 Arbroath 3 Dec 6 – Dec 20 1 in 69
3 Airdrieonians 2 Dec 6 – Dec 13 1 in 22
4 Raith Rovers 3 Mar 27 – Apr 14 1 in 18
5 Ross County 2 Jan 9 – Jan 24 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ross County 4 Nov 15 – Dec 20 1 in 105
2 Greenock Morton 4 Feb 21 – Mar 13 1 in 36
3 Raith Rovers 3 Oct 4 – Oct 17 1 in 24
4 Dunfermline Athletic 3 Sep 19 – Sep 27 1 in 18
5 Ayr United 3 Apr 18 – May 1 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Partick Thistle 14 Jan 24 – May 1 1 in 82
2 Arbroath 6 Nov 15 – Dec 27 1 in 33
3 Ayr United 8 Aug 23 – Oct 18 1 in 28
4 St. Johnstone 14 Jan 30 – May 1 1 in 19
5 Queens Park 4 Aug 23 – Sep 20 1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ayr United 9 Feb 21 – Apr 7 1 in 125
2 Ross County 8 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 80
3 Airdrieonians 11 Aug 2 – Oct 21 1 in 47
4 Greenock Morton 8 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 44
5 Raith Rovers 5 Nov 1 – Dec 6 1 in 15

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
St. Johnstone 1609 77 +44 15 10.0 +5.0
Partick Thistle 1512 66 +6 7 9.0 -2.0
Arbroath 1378 52 -5 5 5.4 -0.4
Dunfermline Athletic 1451 51 -13 5 7.0 -2.0
Raith Rovers 1404 45 +15 9 6.7 +2.3
Queens Park 1330 41 -24 5 6.2 -1.2
Ayr United 1354 39 -40 3 6.4 -3.4
Greenock Morton 1323 38 -51 2 6.5 -4.5
Airdrieonians 1356 36 -2 6 5.4 +0.6
Ross County 1318 34 -7 6 5.9 +0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AIR ARB AU DA GM PT QP RR RC SJ
Airdrieonians —
1-2-1
5.08
1-1-2
4.10
1-1-2
4.25
2-1-1
4.74
0-2-2
3.27
0-2-2
5.61
1-2-1
4.10
2-1-1
4.86
0-0-4
2.82
Arbroath
1-2-1
5.81
—
0-3-1
4.26
2-1-1
4.55
0-2-2
4.97
1-3-0
3.42
3-0-1
5.27
2-1-1
4.49
3-1-0
4.97
1-0-3
2.96
Ayr United
2-1-1
6.84
1-3-0
6.65
—
2-0-2
5.58
1-2-1
6.34
0-2-2
4.76
0-3-1
6.98
2-0-2
5.82
0-3-1
6.54
0-1-3
3.74
Dunfermline Athletic
2-1-1
6.67
1-1-2
6.37
2-0-2
5.30
—
2-1-1
5.73
0-1-3
4.53
2-2-0
6.62
3-0-1
5.14
1-2-1
5.84
1-1-2
3.80
Greenock Morton
1-1-2
6.15
2-2-0
5.92
1-2-1
4.56
1-1-2
5.17
—
0-2-2
4.31
1-2-1
6.31
0-2-2
4.89
2-1-1
5.79
0-1-3
3.67
Partick Thistle
2-2-0
7.70
0-3-1
7.56
2-2-0
6.12
3-1-0
6.36
2-2-0
6.59
—
2-2-0
7.57
2-1-1
6.35
3-0-1
6.79
1-2-1
4.64
Queens Park
2-2-0
5.28
1-0-3
5.63
1-3-0
3.95
0-2-2
4.27
1-2-1
4.59
0-2-2
3.41
—
1-1-2
4.34
3-0-1
5.38
0-2-2
2.88
Raith Rovers
1-2-1
6.82
1-1-2
6.43
2-0-2
5.06
1-0-3
5.76
2-2-0
6.00
1-1-2
4.54
2-1-1
6.57
—
2-0-2
6.31
0-2-2
3.81
Ross County
1-1-2
6.03
0-1-3
5.94
1-3-0
4.37
1-2-1
5.04
1-1-2
5.10
1-0-3
4.17
1-0-3
5.53
2-0-2
4.58
—
0-2-2
3.57
St. Johnstone
4-0-0
8.24
3-0-1
8.06
3-1-0
7.21
2-1-1
7.13
3-1-0
7.28
1-2-1
6.25
2-2-0
8.17
2-2-0
7.18
2-2-0
7.44
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.91 +12.7
Allowed 0.92 -14.9
Differential 0.94 +7.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%8.06%5.56%3.06%1.39%1.11%32.50%
18.06%14.44%7.22%2.22%0.56%0.28%32.78%
25.56%7.22%5.56%2.22%1.11%—21.67%
33.06%2.22%2.22%0.56%0.28%—8.33%
41.39%0.56%1.11%0.28%——3.33%
5+1.11%0.28%————1.39%
Total32.50%32.78%21.67%8.33%3.33%1.39%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.17 1.17 1.70
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%2.78%5.56%5.56%—41.67%
15.56%13.89%8.33%2.78%——30.56%
22.78%5.56%8.33%—2.78%—19.44%
32.78%2.78%————5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total25.00%38.89%19.44%8.33%8.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.36 -0.39
SD 1.06 1.20 1.71
CV 1.09 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%—2.78%36.11%
15.56%19.44%5.56%———30.56%
22.78%11.11%——2.78%—16.67%
32.78%5.56%2.78%———11.11%
4—2.78%2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%11.11%5.56%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.14 +0.06
SD 1.21 1.15 1.64
CV 1.02 1.01 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
18.33%25.00%13.89%2.78%——50.00%
22.78%5.56%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
4——2.78%———2.78%
5+———————
Total22.22%41.67%22.22%11.11%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.31 -0.25
SD 0.95 1.04 1.16
CV 0.90 0.79 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%5.56%16.67%———30.56%
111.11%2.78%5.56%———19.44%
28.33%2.78%13.89%5.56%2.78%—33.33%
38.33%2.78%————11.11%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total41.67%13.89%36.11%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.14 +0.31
SD 1.27 1.13 1.85
CV 0.88 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%8.33%2.78%—5.56%2.78%30.56%
15.56%25.00%5.56%5.56%——41.67%
22.78%11.11%2.78%8.33%——25.00%
32.78%—————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%11.11%13.89%5.56%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.44 -0.44
SD 0.83 1.30 1.59
CV 0.83 0.90 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%—5.56%———19.44%
111.11%16.67%2.78%——2.78%33.33%
28.33%13.89%11.11%———33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total36.11%36.11%25.00%——2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.00 +0.47
SD 1.11 1.04 1.44
CV 0.75 1.04 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%5.56%——2.78%33.33%
18.33%22.22%5.56%2.78%5.56%—44.44%
2—11.11%2.78%———13.89%
32.78%—2.78%—2.78%—8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%44.44%16.67%2.78%8.33%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.33 -0.36
SD 0.91 1.29 1.46
CV 0.94 0.97 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
019.44%—19.44%5.56%——44.44%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
28.33%——5.56%——13.89%
35.56%2.78%5.56%———13.89%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total41.67%11.11%36.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.17 +0.03
SD 1.45 1.11 1.96
CV 1.21 0.95 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%13.89%2.78%8.33%2.78%2.78%41.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
28.33%2.78%8.33%2.78%——22.22%
3——2.78%2.78%——5.56%
42.78%—————2.78%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%25.00%19.44%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.58 -0.58
SD 1.07 1.40 1.86
CV 1.07 0.89 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%2.78%————19.44%
113.89%8.33%2.78%2.78%——27.78%
211.11%8.33%5.56%———25.00%
35.56%2.78%————8.33%
45.56%—5.56%2.78%——13.89%
5+2.78%2.78%————5.56%
Total55.56%25.00%13.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 0.69 +1.17
SD 1.50 0.92 1.56
CV 0.80 1.33 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
St. Johnstone 1609 77 67.02 +9.98 90.0% 45 54 61 67 72 79 87
Partick Thistle 1508 66 59.12 +6.88 86.0% 43 45 54 58 64 69 81
Dunfermline Athletic 1450 51 50.40 +0.60 62.0% 32 37 46 50 56 64 70
Raith Rovers 1404 45 50.23 -5.23 27.0% 34 39 45 51 55 61 66
Arbroath 1373 52 41.23 +10.77 94.0% 25 30 36 41 46 53 59
Airdrieonians 1356 36 40.09 -4.09 31.0% 27 30 34 39 45 50 54
Ayr United 1354 39 53.49 -14.49 3.0% 35 42 49 53 58 66 68
Queens Park 1330 41 39.55 +1.45 61.0% 25 28 34 39 44 55 60
Greenock Morton 1323 38 46.62 -8.62 18.0% 34 35 41 46 52 59 65
Ross County 1318 34 44.01 -10.01 9.0% 25 32 39 44 49 56 59

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+11.67%
Slight Edge
38.89%33.89%27.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 40.72 Elo pts.
244 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.9
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
69%
St. Johnstone, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.31/gm
Runaway
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.85 * Some Luck: 5.85 to 8.78 * Lucky: 8.78 to 11.7 * Wild Swing: 11.7 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.85 * Off: 1.85 to 2.47 * Way Off: 2.47 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.47 * A Surprise: 1.47 to 2.35 * Several Surprises: 2.35 to 3.23 * Many Surprises: 3.23 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
8.23 points
Some Luck
07.3118
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.544
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Arbroath
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
3.00%
Ayr United
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
As Expected
01.52

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 94.81
1.88
Strong Separation
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Even
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
69%
Very Frequent
0%62%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.65
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.31
Very Even
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.32
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.21
Weak Carryover
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.25
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.81
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.070
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Quarterfinals

Dunfermline Athletic 1
Arbroath 0

Leg 1: Dunfermline Athletic 1-0 Arbroath

Leg 2: Arbroath 0-0 Dunfermline Athletic

Semifinals

Partick Thistle 3
Dunfermline Athletic 2

Leg 1: Dunfermline Athletic 1-1 Partick Thistle

Leg 2: Partick Thistle 2-1 Dunfermline Athletic

Finals

St. Mirren 1
Partick Thistle 0

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
St. Johnstone69.00%18.00%7.00%4.00%1.00%—1.00%———
Partick Thistle20.00%36.00%17.00%13.00%6.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%——
Arbroath——5.00%7.00%7.00%13.00%12.00%18.00%18.00%20.00%
Dunfermline Athletic3.00%11.00%15.00%16.00%20.00%12.00%10.00%3.00%7.00%3.00%
Raith Rovers1.00%8.00%21.00%14.00%22.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%
Queens Park—2.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%8.00%14.00%16.00%25.00%28.00%
Ayr United7.00%17.00%20.00%20.00%13.00%9.00%9.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Greenock Morton—4.00%7.00%14.00%13.00%16.00%14.00%13.00%14.00%5.00%
Airdrieonians——2.00%—5.00%12.00%16.00%19.00%21.00%25.00%
Ross County—4.00%2.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%11.00%21.00%12.00%15.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Direct promotion Qualified for promotion playoff Same level Direct relegation
St. Johnstone 69.00% 29.00% 2.00% —
Partick Thistle 20.00% 66.00% 14.00% —
Ayr United 7.00% 57.00% 35.00% 1.00%
Dunfermline Athletic 3.00% 42.00% 52.00% 3.00%
Raith Rovers 1.00% 43.00% 53.00% 3.00%
Greenock Morton — 25.00% 70.00% 5.00%
Ross County — 16.00% 69.00% 15.00%
Arbroath — 12.00% 68.00% 20.00%
Airdrieonians — 2.00% 73.00% 25.00%
Queens Park — 8.00% 64.00% 28.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-08-01 Ayr United D 1-154.7 1293 1445 24.16% 27.36% 48.48%-0.45 +1.2 1
2025-08-01 @ Arbroath D 1-154.7 1445 1293 48.48% 27.36% 24.16%+0.45 -1.2 1
2025-08-02 Ross County D 2-261.9 1367 1456 31.68% 28.27% 40.05%-0.20 +0.3 1
2025-08-02 @ Airdrieonians D 2-261.9 1456 1367 40.05% 28.27% 31.68%+0.20 -0.3 1
2025-08-02 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-050.5 1409 1374 48.64% 27.33% 24.03%+0.31 -1.4 1
2025-08-02 @ Greenock Morton D 0-050.5 1374 1409 24.03% 27.33% 48.64%-0.31 +1.4 1
2025-08-02 Queens Park D 1-156.3 1445 1359 54.63% 26.02% 19.35%+0.52 -1.8 1
2025-08-02 @ Raith Rovers D 1-156.3 1359 1445 19.35% 26.02% 54.63%-0.52 +1.8 1
2025-08-02 Partick Thistle W 5-143.4 1445 1443 44.22% 27.94% 27.84%+0.17 +22.4 3
2025-08-02 @ St. Johnstone L 1-543.4 1443 1445 27.84% 27.94% 44.22%-0.17 -22.4 0
2025-08-08 St. Johnstone L 0-150.3 1455 1467 42.42% 28.11% 29.47%+0.12 -10.3 1
2025-08-08 @ Ross County W 1-050.3 1467 1455 29.47% 28.11% 42.42%-0.12 +10.3 6
2025-08-09 Raith Rovers L 0-149.5 1444 1443 44.09% 27.96% 27.95%+0.17 -10.6 1
2025-08-09 @ Ayr United W 1-049.5 1443 1444 27.95% 27.96% 44.09%-0.17 +10.6 4
2025-08-09 Airdrieonians W 2-037.8 1375 1367 45.03% 27.85% 27.12%+0.20 +13.9 4
2025-08-09 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-237.8 1367 1375 27.12% 27.85% 45.03%-0.20 -13.8 1
2025-08-09 Greenock Morton D 1-156.4 1421 1408 45.66% 27.77% 26.57%+0.22 -0.9 1
2025-08-09 @ Partick Thistle D 1-156.4 1408 1421 26.57% 27.77% 45.66%-0.22 +0.9 2
2025-08-09 Arbroath L 1-349.7 1361 1294 52.44% 26.57% 20.99%+0.44 -19.9 1
2025-08-09 @ Queens Park W 3-149.7 1294 1361 20.99% 26.57% 52.44%-0.44 +19.9 4
2025-08-22 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-037.8 1453 1389 52.17% 26.63% 21.20%+0.43 +11.3 7
2025-08-22 @ Raith Rovers L 0-237.8 1389 1453 21.20% 26.63% 52.17%-0.43 -11.3 4
2025-08-23 Queens Park D 1-153.9 1353 1341 45.64% 27.78% 26.59%+0.22 -0.9 2
2025-08-23 @ Airdrieonians D 1-153.9 1341 1353 26.59% 27.78% 45.64%-0.22 +1.0 2
2025-08-23 Ayr United D 2-262.4 1409 1433 40.71% 28.23% 31.05%+0.07 -0.3 3
2025-08-23 @ Greenock Morton D 2-262.4 1433 1409 31.05% 28.23% 40.71%-0.07 +0.3 2
2025-08-23 Partick Thistle L 1-352.4 1445 1420 47.32% 27.54% 25.13%+0.27 -18.3 1
2025-08-23 @ Ross County W 3-152.4 1420 1445 25.13% 27.54% 47.32%-0.27 +18.3 4
2025-08-23 Arbroath W 3-031.8 1477 1314 62.90% 23.21% 13.89%+0.83 +10.8 9
2025-08-23 @ St. Johnstone L 0-331.8 1314 1477 13.89% 23.21% 62.90%-0.83 -10.8 4
2025-08-30 Airdrieonians W 1-042.2 1303 1353 37.17% 28.36% 34.47%-0.03 +8.8 7
2025-08-30 @ Arbroath L 0-142.2 1353 1303 34.47% 28.36% 37.17%+0.03 -8.8 2
2025-08-30 Queens Park D 1-155.8 1433 1342 55.29% 25.84% 18.87%+0.54 -1.9 3
2025-08-30 @ Ayr United D 1-155.8 1342 1433 18.87% 25.84% 55.29%-0.54 +1.9 3
2025-08-30 Ross County D 2-261.5 1378 1427 37.19% 28.36% 34.44%-0.03 -0.1 5
2025-08-30 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-261.5 1427 1378 34.44% 28.36% 37.19%+0.03 +0.1 2
2025-08-30 Raith Rovers W 3-257.1 1438 1465 40.34% 28.25% 31.41%+0.06 +7.4 7
2025-08-30 @ Partick Thistle L 2-357.1 1465 1438 31.41% 28.25% 40.34%-0.06 -7.4 7
2025-08-30 Greenock Morton D 1-158.9 1488 1409 53.92% 26.21% 19.87%+0.49 -1.8 10
2025-08-30 @ St. Johnstone D 1-158.9 1409 1488 19.87% 26.21% 53.92%-0.49 +1.8 4
2025-09-06 Raith Rovers L 0-147.1 1410 1457 37.49% 28.36% 34.15%-0.03 -9.4 4
2025-09-06 @ Greenock Morton W 1-047.1 1457 1410 34.15% 28.36% 37.49%+0.03 +9.4 10
2025-09-06 Arbroath L 1-255.2 1427 1312 57.88% 25.05% 17.07%+0.64 -12.5 2
2025-09-06 @ Ross County W 2-155.2 1312 1427 17.07% 25.05% 57.88%-0.64 +12.5 10
2025-09-12 Airdrieonians W 2-144.3 1445 1344 56.44% 25.51% 18.06%+0.58 +4.9 10
2025-09-12 @ Partick Thistle L 1-244.3 1344 1445 18.06% 25.51% 56.44%-0.58 -4.9 2
2025-09-13 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-539.3 1325 1378 36.63% 28.37% 35.00%-0.05 -40.6 10
2025-09-13 @ Arbroath W 5-039.3 1378 1325 35.00% 28.37% 36.63%+0.05 +40.6 8
2025-09-13 Ross County D 1-156.9 1431 1414 46.26% 27.70% 26.05%+0.24 -1.0 4
2025-09-13 @ Ayr United D 1-156.9 1414 1431 26.05% 27.70% 46.26%-0.24 +1.0 3
2025-09-13 Greenock Morton D 0-049.5 1344 1401 36.05% 28.37% 35.58%-0.07 -0.0 4
2025-09-13 @ Queens Park D 0-049.5 1401 1344 35.58% 28.37% 36.05%+0.07 +0.0 5
2025-09-13 St. Johnstone L 0-247.9 1467 1486 41.34% 28.19% 30.47%+0.09 -19.0 10
2025-09-13 @ Raith Rovers W 2-047.9 1486 1467 30.47% 28.19% 41.34%-0.09 +19.0 13
2025-09-19 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-148.6 1505 1418 54.81% 25.97% 19.22%+0.52 +5.2 16
2025-09-19 @ St. Johnstone L 1-248.6 1418 1505 19.22% 25.97% 54.81%-0.52 -5.2 8
2025-09-20 Raith Rovers D 0-050.3 1339 1448 29.08% 28.07% 42.84%-0.28 +0.8 3
2025-09-20 @ Airdrieonians D 0-050.3 1448 1339 42.84% 28.07% 29.08%+0.28 -0.8 11
2025-09-20 Greenock Morton D 1-153.7 1284 1401 28.08% 27.97% 43.95%-0.31 +0.8 11
2025-09-20 @ Arbroath D 1-153.7 1401 1284 43.95% 27.97% 28.08%+0.31 -0.8 6
2025-09-20 Queens Park L 1-254.5 1415 1344 52.99% 26.44% 20.57%+0.46 -11.6 3
2025-09-20 @ Ross County W 2-154.5 1344 1415 20.57% 26.44% 52.99%-0.46 +11.6 7
2025-09-23 St. Johnstone L 1-247.5 1340 1510 22.25% 26.92% 50.83%-0.53 -5.9 3
2025-09-23 @ Airdrieonians W 2-147.5 1510 1340 50.83% 26.92% 22.25%+0.53 +5.9 19
2025-09-23 Ayr United L 0-147.6 1413 1430 41.63% 28.17% 30.20%+0.10 -10.1 8
2025-09-23 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 1-047.6 1430 1413 30.20% 28.17% 41.63%-0.10 +10.1 7
2025-09-27 Airdrieonians W 4-244.1 1441 1334 57.02% 25.33% 17.65%+0.60 +7.4 10
2025-09-27 @ Ayr United L 2-444.1 1334 1441 17.65% 25.33% 57.02%-0.60 -7.4 3
2025-09-27 Partick Thistle L 0-243.5 1403 1450 37.45% 28.36% 34.19%-0.03 -17.6 8
2025-09-27 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-043.5 1450 1403 34.19% 28.36% 37.45%+0.03 +17.6 13
2025-09-27 Ross County D 1-155.8 1400 1404 43.53% 28.01% 28.46%+0.15 -0.7 7
2025-09-27 @ Greenock Morton D 1-155.8 1404 1400 28.46% 28.01% 43.53%-0.15 +0.7 4
2025-09-27 St. Johnstone L 1-248.5 1356 1516 23.24% 27.16% 49.59%-0.49 -6.1 7
2025-09-27 @ Queens Park W 2-148.5 1516 1356 49.59% 27.16% 23.24%+0.49 +6.1 22
2025-09-27 Arbroath W 3-030.7 1447 1285 62.81% 23.24% 13.94%+0.83 +10.9 14
2025-09-27 @ Raith Rovers L 0-330.7 1285 1447 13.94% 23.24% 62.81%-0.83 -10.9 11
2025-09-30 Partick Thistle L 0-142.8 1349 1468 27.92% 27.95% 44.13%-0.32 -7.5 7
2025-09-30 @ Queens Park W 1-042.8 1468 1349 44.13% 27.95% 27.92%+0.32 +7.5 16
2025-10-04 Greenock Morton L 1-248.7 1326 1400 33.77% 28.35% 37.88%-0.13 -8.2 3
2025-10-04 @ Airdrieonians W 2-148.7 1400 1326 37.88% 28.35% 33.77%+0.13 +8.2 10
2025-10-04 Queens Park D 0-049.5 1385 1342 49.59% 27.16% 23.25%+0.34 -1.5 9
2025-10-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-049.5 1342 1385 23.25% 27.16% 49.59%-0.34 +1.5 8
2025-10-04 Arbroath D 1-156.6 1475 1274 66.58% 21.59% 11.83%+0.99 -3.0 17
2025-10-04 @ Partick Thistle D 1-156.6 1274 1475 11.83% 21.59% 66.58%-0.99 +3.0 12
2025-10-04 Raith Rovers W 2-043.1 1404 1458 36.58% 28.37% 35.05%-0.05 +16.8 7
2025-10-04 @ Ross County L 0-243.1 1458 1404 35.05% 28.37% 36.58%+0.05 -16.8 14
2025-10-04 Ayr United D 0-056.4 1522 1448 53.34% 26.35% 20.31%+0.47 -1.9 23
2025-10-04 @ St. Johnstone D 0-056.4 1448 1522 20.31% 26.35% 53.34%-0.47 +1.9 11
2025-10-11 Queens Park W 4-142.8 1277 1343 34.70% 28.37% 36.93%-0.11 +21.4 15
2025-10-11 @ Arbroath L 1-442.8 1343 1277 36.93% 28.37% 34.70%+0.11 -21.4 8
2025-10-11 Partick Thistle D 1-157.7 1408 1472 34.97% 28.37% 36.66%-0.10 +0.1 11
2025-10-11 @ Greenock Morton D 1-157.7 1472 1408 36.66% 28.37% 34.97%+0.10 -0.1 18
2025-10-11 Ayr United L 0-246.2 1441 1450 42.80% 28.08% 29.12%+0.13 -19.5 14
2025-10-11 @ Raith Rovers W 2-046.2 1450 1441 29.12% 28.08% 42.80%-0.13 +19.5 14
2025-10-11 Ross County D 0-055.6 1520 1421 56.17% 25.59% 18.25%+0.57 -2.2 24
2025-10-11 @ St. Johnstone D 0-055.6 1421 1520 18.25% 25.59% 56.17%-0.57 +2.2 8
2025-10-17 Raith Rovers W 2-040.9 1384 1422 38.80% 28.32% 32.88%+0.01 +16.0 12
2025-10-17 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-240.9 1422 1384 32.88% 28.32% 38.80%-0.01 -16.0 14
2025-10-18 St. Johnstone W 3-153.2 1298 1518 17.98% 25.47% 56.55%-0.73 +21.2 18
2025-10-18 @ Arbroath L 1-353.2 1518 1298 56.55% 25.47% 17.98%+0.73 -21.2 24
2025-10-18 Greenock Morton W 2-148.0 1469 1408 51.82% 26.71% 21.48%+0.42 +5.7 17
2025-10-18 @ Ayr United L 1-248.0 1408 1469 21.48% 26.71% 51.82%-0.42 -5.7 11
2025-10-18 Ross County W 1-043.1 1472 1424 50.26% 27.03% 22.71%+0.37 +6.3 21
2025-10-18 @ Partick Thistle L 0-143.1 1424 1472 22.71% 27.03% 50.26%-0.37 -6.3 8
2025-10-18 Airdrieonians D 0-048.3 1322 1318 44.50% 27.91% 27.59%+0.18 -0.9 9
2025-10-18 @ Queens Park D 0-048.3 1318 1322 27.59% 27.91% 44.50%-0.18 +0.9 4
2025-10-21 Ayr United W 2-152.8 1479 1475 44.47% 27.92% 27.62%+0.18 +7.0 24
2025-10-21 @ Partick Thistle L 1-252.8 1475 1479 27.62% 27.92% 44.47%-0.18 -7.0 17
2025-10-21 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-437.7 1319 1400 32.74% 28.32% 38.94%-0.16 -30.4 4
2025-10-21 @ Airdrieonians W 4-037.7 1400 1319 38.94% 28.32% 32.74%+0.16 +30.4 15
2025-10-25 Arbroath W 1-041.0 1289 1319 39.79% 28.28% 31.93%+0.04 +8.3 7
2025-10-25 @ Airdrieonians L 0-141.0 1319 1289 31.93% 28.28% 39.79%-0.04 -8.3 18
2025-10-25 St. Johnstone L 0-441.3 1402 1497 30.85% 28.22% 40.94%-0.22 -29.0 11
2025-10-25 @ Greenock Morton W 4-041.3 1497 1402 40.94% 28.22% 30.85%+0.22 +29.0 27
2025-10-25 Ayr United D 0-050.6 1321 1468 24.68% 27.46% 47.86%-0.43 +1.3 10
2025-10-25 @ Queens Park D 0-050.6 1468 1321 47.86% 27.46% 24.68%+0.43 -1.3 18
2025-10-25 Partick Thistle W 2-045.1 1405 1486 32.81% 28.32% 38.87%-0.16 +18.1 17
2025-10-25 @ Raith Rovers L 0-245.1 1486 1405 38.87% 28.32% 32.81%+0.16 -18.1 24
2025-10-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 3-254.8 1417 1430 42.24% 28.13% 29.63%+0.11 +7.0 11
2025-10-25 @ Ross County L 2-354.8 1430 1417 29.63% 28.13% 42.24%-0.11 -7.0 15
2025-10-31 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-151.1 1467 1423 49.63% 27.16% 23.22%+0.35 -11.7 18
2025-10-31 @ Ayr United W 1-051.1 1423 1467 23.22% 27.16% 49.63%-0.35 +11.7 18
2025-11-01 Ross County W 3-041.1 1311 1424 28.56% 28.02% 43.42%-0.30 +28.7 21
2025-11-01 @ Arbroath L 0-341.1 1424 1311 43.42% 28.02% 28.56%+0.30 -28.7 11
2025-11-01 Queens Park W 5-032.9 1468 1322 61.09% 23.92% 14.99%+0.76 +18.9 27
2025-11-01 @ Partick Thistle L 0-532.9 1322 1468 14.99% 23.92% 61.09%-0.76 -18.9 10
2025-11-01 Greenock Morton D 1-155.9 1424 1373 50.48% 26.99% 22.53%+0.37 -1.4 18
2025-11-01 @ Raith Rovers D 1-155.9 1373 1424 22.53% 26.99% 50.48%-0.37 +1.4 12
2025-11-01 Airdrieonians W 3-030.7 1526 1297 69.08% 20.38% 10.54%+1.10 +8.0 30
2025-11-01 @ St. Johnstone L 0-330.7 1297 1526 10.54% 20.38% 69.08%-1.10 -7.9 7
2025-11-07 Partick Thistle D 1-155.7 1289 1486 19.84% 26.19% 53.97%-0.64 +1.8 8
2025-11-07 @ Airdrieonians D 1-155.7 1486 1289 53.97% 26.19% 19.84%+0.64 -1.8 28
2025-11-08 St. Johnstone D 2-266.6 1435 1534 30.29% 28.18% 41.53%-0.24 +0.4 19
2025-11-08 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-266.6 1534 1435 41.53% 28.18% 30.29%+0.24 -0.4 31
2025-11-08 Arbroath W 1-039.5 1374 1340 48.51% 27.35% 24.14%+0.31 +6.7 15
2025-11-08 @ Greenock Morton L 0-139.5 1340 1374 24.14% 27.35% 48.51%-0.31 -6.7 21
2025-11-08 Raith Rovers W 2-151.7 1303 1422 27.89% 27.95% 44.16%-0.32 +10.0 13
2025-11-08 @ Queens Park L 1-251.7 1422 1303 44.16% 27.95% 27.89%+0.32 -10.0 18
2025-11-08 Ayr United D 3-366.2 1396 1455 35.70% 28.37% 35.93%-0.08 +0.0 12
2025-11-08 @ Ross County D 3-366.2 1455 1396 35.93% 28.37% 35.70%+0.08 +0.0 19
2025-11-15 Arbroath D 1-156.4 1455 1333 58.66% 24.80% 16.54%+0.67 -2.2 20
2025-11-15 @ Ayr United D 1-156.4 1333 1455 16.54% 24.80% 58.66%-0.67 +2.2 22
2025-11-15 Airdrieonians L 0-344.2 1412 1291 58.58% 24.82% 16.59%+0.66 -36.6 18
2025-11-15 @ Raith Rovers W 3-044.2 1291 1412 16.59% 24.82% 58.58%-0.66 +36.6 11
2025-11-15 Greenock Morton L 0-342.5 1396 1381 45.90% 27.74% 26.35%+0.23 -29.9 12
2025-11-15 @ Ross County W 3-042.5 1381 1396 26.35% 27.74% 45.90%-0.23 +29.9 18
2025-11-15 Queens Park W 4-349.3 1534 1313 68.29% 20.77% 10.94%+1.07 +2.6 34
2025-11-15 @ St. Johnstone L 3-449.3 1313 1534 10.94% 20.77% 68.29%-1.07 -2.6 13
2025-11-22 Ayr United L 0-141.7 1328 1453 27.10% 27.85% 45.05%-0.35 -7.3 11
2025-11-22 @ Airdrieonians W 1-041.7 1453 1328 45.05% 27.85% 27.10%+0.35 +7.3 23
2025-11-22 Raith Rovers D 0-048.9 1335 1376 38.45% 28.33% 33.22%+0.00 -0.3 23
2025-11-22 @ Arbroath D 0-048.9 1376 1335 33.22% 28.33% 38.45%+0.00 +0.3 19
2025-11-22 Greenock Morton W 1-042.6 1435 1411 47.15% 27.57% 25.28%+0.26 +6.9 22
2025-11-22 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-142.6 1411 1435 25.28% 27.57% 47.15%-0.26 -6.9 18
2025-11-22 St. Johnstone W 2-157.6 1485 1536 36.82% 28.37% 34.81%-0.04 +8.4 31
2025-11-22 @ Partick Thistle L 1-257.6 1536 1485 34.81% 28.37% 36.82%+0.04 -8.4 34
2025-11-25 Dunfermline Athletic W 1-044.4 1493 1442 50.52% 26.98% 22.50%+0.37 +6.3 34
2025-11-25 @ Partick Thistle L 0-144.4 1442 1493 22.50% 26.98% 50.52%-0.37 -6.3 22
2025-12-05 Queens Park W 2-143.3 1404 1311 55.51% 25.78% 18.71%+0.55 +5.0 21
2025-12-05 @ Greenock Morton L 1-243.3 1311 1404 18.71% 25.78% 55.51%-0.55 -5.0 13
2025-12-06 Partick Thistle D 0-055.4 1460 1499 38.62% 28.33% 33.06%+0.01 -0.3 24
2025-12-06 @ Ayr United D 0-055.4 1499 1460 33.06% 28.33% 38.62%-0.01 +0.3 35
2025-12-06 Arbroath L 1-255.4 1436 1335 56.34% 25.53% 18.12%+0.58 -12.2 22
2025-12-06 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-155.4 1335 1436 18.12% 25.53% 56.34%-0.58 +12.2 26
2025-12-06 Airdrieonians L 1-252.6 1366 1320 49.85% 27.11% 23.04%+0.35 -11.0 12
2025-12-06 @ Ross County W 2-152.6 1320 1366 23.04% 27.11% 49.85%-0.35 +11.0 14
2025-12-06 Raith Rovers D 0-054.8 1528 1376 61.79% 23.65% 14.56%+0.79 -2.8 35
2025-12-06 @ St. Johnstone D 0-054.8 1376 1528 14.56% 23.65% 61.79%-0.79 +2.8 20
2025-12-12 St. Johnstone L 2-456.5 1460 1525 34.89% 28.37% 36.74%-0.10 -13.0 24
2025-12-12 @ Ayr United W 4-256.5 1525 1460 36.74% 28.37% 34.89%+0.10 +13.0 38
2025-12-13 Partick Thistle W 2-155.4 1347 1500 24.12% 27.35% 48.53%-0.46 +10.8 29
2025-12-13 @ Arbroath L 1-255.4 1500 1347 48.53% 27.35% 24.12%+0.46 -10.8 35
2025-12-13 Airdrieonians L 0-148.4 1409 1331 53.75% 26.25% 20.00%+0.49 -12.5 21
2025-12-13 @ Greenock Morton W 1-048.4 1331 1409 20.00% 26.25% 53.75%-0.49 +12.5 17
2025-12-13 Dunfermline Athletic D 1-154.4 1306 1424 28.00% 27.96% 44.04%-0.32 +0.8 14
2025-12-13 @ Queens Park D 1-154.4 1424 1306 44.04% 27.96% 28.00%+0.32 -0.8 23
2025-12-13 Ross County W 6-036.8 1379 1355 47.15% 27.57% 25.28%+0.26 +36.3 23
2025-12-13 @ Raith Rovers L 0-636.8 1355 1379 25.28% 27.57% 47.15%-0.26 -36.3 12
2025-12-20 Queens Park L 0-341.4 1344 1307 48.80% 27.30% 23.89%+0.32 -31.5 17
2025-12-20 @ Airdrieonians W 3-041.4 1307 1344 23.89% 27.30% 48.80%-0.32 +31.5 17
2025-12-20 Ayr United L 2-358.8 1423 1447 40.71% 28.23% 31.06%+0.07 -8.9 23
2025-12-20 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 3-258.8 1447 1423 31.06% 28.23% 40.71%-0.07 +8.9 27
2025-12-20 Raith Rovers D 0-054.0 1489 1415 53.26% 26.37% 20.37%+0.47 -1.9 36
2025-12-20 @ Partick Thistle D 0-054.0 1415 1489 20.37% 26.37% 53.26%-0.47 +1.9 24
2025-12-20 Arbroath L 0-240.5 1318 1358 38.51% 28.33% 33.15%+0.00 -18.0 12
2025-12-20 @ Ross County W 2-040.5 1358 1318 33.15% 28.33% 38.51%+0.00 +18.0 32
2025-12-20 Greenock Morton W 5-037.2 1538 1397 60.69% 24.07% 15.24%+0.74 +19.2 41
2025-12-20 @ St. Johnstone L 0-537.2 1397 1538 15.24% 24.07% 60.69%-0.74 -19.2 21
2025-12-27 Airdrieonians D 1-154.2 1376 1312 52.09% 26.65% 21.26%+0.43 -1.6 33
2025-12-27 @ Arbroath D 1-154.2 1312 1376 21.26% 26.65% 52.09%-0.43 +1.6 18
2025-12-27 Ayr United D 1-156.4 1378 1456 33.07% 28.33% 38.60%-0.15 +0.3 22
2025-12-27 @ Greenock Morton D 1-156.4 1456 1378 38.60% 28.33% 33.07%+0.15 -0.3 28
2025-12-27 Partick Thistle D 2-262.2 1338 1487 24.49% 27.42% 48.09%-0.44 +0.9 18
2025-12-27 @ Queens Park D 2-262.2 1487 1338 48.09% 27.42% 24.49%+0.44 -0.9 37
2025-12-27 Dunfermline Athletic L 1-253.9 1417 1414 44.40% 27.92% 27.68%+0.18 -10.0 24
2025-12-27 @ Raith Rovers W 2-153.9 1414 1417 27.68% 27.92% 44.40%-0.18 +10.0 26
2025-12-27 St. Johnstone D 0-053.3 1300 1557 15.35% 24.14% 60.51%-0.88 +2.7 13
2025-12-27 @ Ross County D 0-053.3 1557 1300 60.51% 24.14% 15.35%+0.88 -2.7 42
2026-01-03 Raith Rovers D 0-049.1 1314 1407 31.09% 28.23% 40.68%-0.21 +0.5 19
2026-01-03 @ Airdrieonians D 0-049.1 1407 1314 40.68% 28.23% 31.09%+0.21 -0.5 25
2026-01-03 Greenock Morton W 3-250.8 1486 1378 57.16% 25.28% 17.55%+0.61 +4.5 40
2026-01-03 @ Partick Thistle L 2-350.8 1378 1486 17.55% 25.28% 57.16%-0.61 -4.5 22
2026-01-03 Arbroath W 1-040.0 1555 1374 64.56% 22.51% 12.93%+0.90 +3.7 45
2026-01-03 @ St. Johnstone L 0-140.0 1374 1555 12.93% 22.51% 64.56%-0.90 -3.7 33
2026-01-09 Partick Thistle W 2-046.1 1303 1490 20.70% 26.48% 52.83%-0.60 +23.1 16
2026-01-09 @ Ross County L 0-246.1 1490 1303 52.83% 26.48% 20.70%+0.60 -23.1 40
2026-01-10 Airdrieonians D 1-156.2 1456 1314 60.69% 24.07% 15.24%+0.74 -2.4 29
2026-01-10 @ Ayr United D 1-156.2 1314 1456 15.24% 24.07% 60.69%-0.74 +2.4 20
2026-01-10 Arbroath L 2-358.6 1406 1371 48.62% 27.34% 24.05%+0.31 -10.2 25
2026-01-10 @ Raith Rovers W 3-258.6 1371 1406 24.05% 27.34% 48.62%-0.31 +10.2 36
2026-01-23 Greenock Morton D 1-154.8 1381 1373 45.02% 27.85% 27.13%+0.20 -0.9 37
2026-01-23 @ Arbroath D 1-154.8 1373 1381 27.13% 27.85% 45.02%-0.20 +0.9 23
2026-01-24 Ross County L 0-144.5 1317 1326 42.73% 28.08% 29.18%+0.13 -10.3 20
2026-01-24 @ Airdrieonians W 1-044.5 1326 1317 29.18% 28.08% 42.73%-0.13 +10.3 19
2026-01-24 Ayr United W 2-151.2 1467 1453 45.87% 27.75% 26.38%+0.22 +6.8 43
2026-01-24 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.2 1453 1467 26.38% 27.75% 45.87%-0.22 -6.8 29
2026-01-24 Queens Park W 4-139.1 1396 1339 51.28% 26.82% 21.89%+0.40 +14.2 28
2026-01-24 @ Raith Rovers L 1-439.1 1339 1396 21.89% 26.82% 51.28%-0.40 -14.2 18
2026-01-24 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-156.6 1558 1424 59.96% 24.34% 15.70%+0.72 -13.6 45
2026-01-24 @ St. Johnstone W 1-056.6 1424 1558 15.70% 24.34% 59.96%-0.72 +13.6 29
2026-01-30 Partick Thistle D 2-269.0 1545 1474 52.87% 26.46% 20.66%+0.45 -1.2 46
2026-01-30 @ St. Johnstone D 2-269.0 1474 1545 20.66% 26.46% 52.87%-0.45 +1.2 44
2026-01-31 Raith Rovers W 2-148.3 1446 1410 48.68% 27.32% 24.00%+0.31 +6.3 32
2026-01-31 @ Ayr United L 1-248.3 1410 1446 24.00% 27.32% 48.68%-0.31 -6.3 28
2026-01-31 Airdrieonians L 0-246.6 1438 1306 59.64% 24.46% 15.90%+0.70 -25.6 29
2026-01-31 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-046.6 1306 1438 15.90% 24.46% 59.64%-0.70 +25.6 23
2026-01-31 Ross County W 2-145.2 1374 1336 48.90% 27.29% 23.81%+0.32 +6.2 26
2026-01-31 @ Greenock Morton L 1-245.2 1336 1374 23.81% 27.29% 48.90%-0.32 -6.2 19
2026-01-31 Arbroath W 2-148.9 1325 1380 36.29% 28.37% 35.34%-0.06 +8.5 21
2026-01-31 @ Queens Park L 1-248.9 1380 1325 35.34% 28.37% 36.29%+0.06 -8.5 37
2026-02-03 Ross County L 0-145.1 1333 1330 44.40% 27.92% 27.68%+0.18 -10.6 21
2026-02-03 @ Queens Park W 1-045.1 1330 1333 27.68% 27.92% 44.40%-0.18 +10.6 22
2026-02-13 St. Johnstone L 0-140.9 1332 1543 18.66% 25.75% 55.58%-0.70 -5.3 23
2026-02-13 @ Airdrieonians W 1-040.9 1543 1332 55.58% 25.75% 18.66%+0.70 +5.3 49
2026-02-14 Raith Rovers D 0-050.2 1380 1404 40.78% 28.23% 30.99%+0.07 -0.5 27
2026-02-14 @ Greenock Morton D 0-050.2 1404 1380 30.99% 28.23% 40.78%-0.07 +0.5 29
2026-02-14 Queens Park L 0-145.7 1341 1323 46.40% 27.68% 25.92%+0.24 -11.0 22
2026-02-14 @ Ross County W 1-045.7 1323 1341 25.92% 27.68% 46.40%-0.24 +11.0 24
2026-02-17 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-040.4 1380 1412 39.60% 28.29% 32.11%+0.04 +15.8 30
2026-02-17 @ Greenock Morton L 0-240.4 1412 1380 32.11% 28.29% 39.60%-0.04 -15.8 29
2026-02-20 St. Johnstone D 0-055.4 1405 1549 24.99% 27.52% 47.49%-0.42 +1.2 30
2026-02-20 @ Raith Rovers D 0-055.4 1549 1405 47.49% 27.52% 24.99%+0.42 -1.3 50
2026-02-21 Dunfermline Athletic W 4-248.9 1372 1396 40.65% 28.23% 31.11%+0.07 +11.9 40
2026-02-21 @ Arbroath L 2-448.9 1396 1372 31.11% 28.23% 40.65%-0.07 -11.9 29
2026-02-21 Ross County D 0-051.2 1453 1330 58.75% 24.77% 16.49%+0.67 -2.5 33
2026-02-21 @ Ayr United D 0-051.2 1330 1453 16.49% 24.77% 58.75%-0.67 +2.5 23
2026-02-21 Airdrieonians W 1-037.2 1475 1327 61.45% 23.79% 14.77%+0.77 +4.2 47
2026-02-21 @ Partick Thistle L 0-137.2 1327 1475 14.77% 23.79% 61.45%-0.77 -4.2 23
2026-02-21 Greenock Morton W 3-254.4 1334 1396 35.33% 28.37% 36.30%-0.09 +8.2 27
2026-02-21 @ Queens Park L 2-354.4 1396 1334 36.30% 28.37% 35.33%+0.09 -8.2 30
2026-02-24 St. Johnstone D 1-158.7 1342 1547 19.13% 25.94% 54.93%-0.67 +1.9 28
2026-02-24 @ Queens Park D 1-158.7 1547 1342 54.93% 25.94% 19.13%+0.67 -1.9 51
2026-02-24 Partick Thistle D 2-263.1 1384 1480 30.81% 28.21% 40.98%-0.22 +0.4 30
2026-02-24 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 2-263.1 1480 1384 40.98% 28.21% 30.81%+0.22 -0.4 48
2026-02-28 Greenock Morton W 3-146.2 1322 1388 34.90% 28.37% 36.73%-0.10 +15.1 26
2026-02-28 @ Airdrieonians L 1-346.2 1388 1322 36.73% 28.37% 34.90%+0.10 -15.1 30
2026-02-28 Queens Park W 1-039.5 1385 1344 49.30% 27.22% 23.49%+0.33 +6.5 33
2026-02-28 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-139.5 1344 1385 23.49% 27.22% 49.30%-0.33 -6.5 28
2026-02-28 Arbroath D 0-053.0 1479 1384 55.76% 25.70% 18.54%+0.56 -2.2 49
2026-02-28 @ Partick Thistle D 0-053.0 1384 1479 18.54% 25.70% 55.76%-0.56 +2.2 41
2026-02-28 Raith Rovers W 2-041.1 1332 1406 33.72% 28.35% 37.93%-0.13 +17.8 26
2026-02-28 @ Ross County L 0-241.1 1406 1332 37.93% 28.35% 33.72%+0.13 -17.8 30
2026-02-28 Ayr United W 3-147.7 1546 1450 55.75% 25.71% 18.55%+0.56 +8.6 54
2026-02-28 @ St. Johnstone L 1-347.7 1450 1546 18.55% 25.71% 55.75%-0.56 -8.6 33
2026-03-03 Ross County W 3-034.9 1391 1350 49.31% 27.21% 23.48%+0.33 +17.9 36
2026-03-03 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-334.9 1350 1391 23.48% 27.21% 49.31%-0.33 -17.9 26
2026-03-03 Ayr United D 1-156.2 1386 1441 36.25% 28.37% 35.38%-0.06 -0.0 42
2026-03-03 @ Arbroath D 1-156.2 1441 1386 35.38% 28.37% 36.25%+0.06 +0.0 34
2026-03-07 Ross County D 0-049.5 1386 1332 50.84% 26.92% 22.24%+0.39 -1.6 43
2026-03-07 @ Arbroath D 0-049.5 1332 1386 22.24% 26.92% 50.84%-0.39 +1.6 27
2026-03-07 St. Johnstone L 0-240.5 1372 1554 21.22% 26.64% 52.14%-0.58 -11.3 30
2026-03-07 @ Greenock Morton W 2-040.5 1554 1372 52.14% 26.64% 21.22%+0.58 +11.3 57
2026-03-07 Airdrieonians W 1-040.4 1337 1337 43.95% 27.97% 28.08%+0.17 +7.5 31
2026-03-07 @ Queens Park L 0-140.4 1337 1337 28.08% 27.97% 43.95%-0.17 -7.5 26
2026-03-10 Queens Park L 1-255.6 1442 1345 55.91% 25.66% 18.43%+0.56 -12.1 34
2026-03-10 @ Ayr United W 2-155.6 1345 1442 18.43% 25.66% 55.91%-0.56 +12.1 34
2026-03-13 Partick Thistle L 1-249.3 1361 1477 28.23% 27.99% 43.78%-0.31 -7.2 30
2026-03-13 @ Greenock Morton W 2-149.3 1477 1361 43.78% 27.99% 28.23%+0.31 +7.2 52
2026-03-14 Arbroath D 0-049.0 1330 1384 36.46% 28.37% 35.17%-0.06 -0.1 27
2026-03-14 @ Airdrieonians D 0-049.0 1384 1330 35.17% 28.37% 36.46%+0.06 +0.1 44
2026-03-14 Raith Rovers W 3-036.8 1409 1388 46.76% 27.63% 25.61%+0.25 +19.2 39
2026-03-14 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-336.8 1388 1409 25.61% 27.63% 46.76%-0.25 -19.2 30
2026-03-14 Ayr United D 1-155.3 1357 1429 33.85% 28.35% 37.80%-0.13 +0.2 35
2026-03-14 @ Queens Park D 1-155.3 1429 1357 37.80% 28.35% 33.85%+0.13 -0.2 35
2026-03-14 Ross County W 1-037.5 1565 1334 69.30% 20.27% 10.43%+1.11 +2.9 60
2026-03-14 @ St. Johnstone L 0-137.5 1334 1565 10.43% 20.27% 69.30%-1.11 -2.9 27
2026-03-20 St. Johnstone D 0-058.8 1484 1568 32.27% 28.30% 39.43%-0.18 +0.4 53
2026-03-20 @ Partick Thistle D 0-058.8 1568 1484 39.43% 28.30% 32.27%+0.18 -0.4 61
2026-03-21 Queens Park W 1-040.2 1384 1357 47.56% 27.51% 24.93%+0.28 +6.9 47
2026-03-21 @ Arbroath L 0-140.2 1357 1384 24.93% 27.51% 47.56%-0.28 -6.9 35
2026-03-21 Greenock Morton L 0-149.2 1429 1354 53.43% 26.33% 20.24%+0.47 -12.4 35
2026-03-21 @ Ayr United W 1-049.2 1354 1429 20.24% 26.33% 53.43%-0.47 +12.4 33
2026-03-21 Airdrieonians W 3-141.8 1369 1330 49.04% 27.26% 23.70%+0.33 +10.7 33
2026-03-21 @ Raith Rovers L 1-341.8 1330 1369 23.70% 27.26% 49.04%-0.33 -10.7 27
2026-03-21 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-260.6 1331 1428 30.55% 28.20% 41.25%-0.23 +0.4 28
2026-03-21 @ Ross County D 2-260.6 1428 1331 41.25% 28.20% 30.55%+0.23 -0.4 40
2026-03-24 Partick Thistle L 0-241.4 1380 1485 29.57% 28.12% 42.31%-0.26 -14.8 33
2026-03-24 @ Raith Rovers W 2-041.4 1485 1380 42.31% 28.12% 29.57%+0.26 +14.8 56
2026-03-27 Ross County W 3-140.0 1499 1331 63.38% 23.01% 13.61%+0.85 +6.3 59
2026-03-27 @ Partick Thistle L 1-340.0 1331 1499 13.61% 23.01% 63.38%-0.85 -6.3 28
2026-03-27 Ayr United W 3-039.4 1365 1417 36.76% 28.37% 34.87%-0.05 +24.3 36
2026-03-27 @ Raith Rovers L 0-339.4 1417 1365 34.87% 28.37% 36.76%+0.05 -24.3 35
2026-03-28 Arbroath W 2-148.4 1366 1391 40.63% 28.24% 31.13%+0.07 +7.7 36
2026-03-28 @ Greenock Morton L 1-248.4 1391 1366 31.13% 28.24% 40.63%-0.07 -7.7 47
2026-03-28 Queens Park D 1-161.2 1568 1350 68.08% 20.88% 11.05%+1.06 -3.1 62
2026-03-28 @ St. Johnstone D 1-161.2 1350 1568 11.05% 20.88% 68.08%-1.06 +3.1 36
2026-04-04 St. Johnstone L 2-450.6 1383 1565 21.25% 26.64% 52.11%-0.58 -8.7 47
2026-04-04 @ Arbroath W 4-250.6 1565 1383 52.11% 26.64% 21.25%+0.58 +8.7 65
2026-04-04 Partick Thistle D 1-158.4 1392 1506 28.55% 28.02% 43.42%-0.30 +0.7 36
2026-04-04 @ Ayr United D 1-158.4 1506 1392 43.42% 28.02% 28.55%+0.30 -0.7 60
2026-04-04 Greenock Morton W 3-143.0 1428 1374 50.87% 26.91% 22.22%+0.39 +10.2 43
2026-04-04 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 1-343.0 1374 1428 22.22% 26.91% 50.87%-0.39 -10.2 36
2026-04-04 Airdrieonians L 0-440.3 1325 1319 44.79% 27.88% 27.33%+0.19 -38.4 28
2026-04-04 @ Ross County W 4-040.3 1319 1325 27.33% 27.88% 44.79%-0.19 +38.4 30
2026-04-07 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-341.5 1393 1438 37.80% 28.35% 33.85%-0.02 -25.8 36
2026-04-07 @ Ayr United W 3-041.5 1438 1393 33.85% 28.35% 37.80%+0.02 +25.8 46
2026-04-10 Ross County W 1-037.5 1353 1287 52.40% 26.58% 21.02%+0.44 +5.9 39
2026-04-10 @ Queens Park L 0-137.5 1287 1353 21.02% 26.58% 52.40%-0.44 -5.9 28
2026-04-11 Arbroath W 1-041.6 1367 1375 43.03% 28.06% 28.92%+0.14 +7.7 39
2026-04-11 @ Ayr United L 0-141.6 1375 1367 28.92% 28.06% 43.03%-0.14 -7.7 47
2026-04-11 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-042.8 1505 1464 49.31% 27.21% 23.48%+0.33 +12.3 63
2026-04-11 @ Partick Thistle L 0-242.8 1464 1505 23.48% 27.21% 49.31%-0.33 -12.3 46
2026-04-11 Greenock Morton W 3-251.2 1389 1364 47.29% 27.55% 25.16%+0.27 +6.2 39
2026-04-11 @ Raith Rovers L 2-351.2 1364 1389 25.16% 27.55% 47.29%-0.27 -6.2 36
2026-04-11 Airdrieonians W 4-034.3 1574 1358 67.92% 20.95% 11.13%+1.05 +11.0 68
2026-04-11 @ St. Johnstone L 0-434.3 1358 1574 11.13% 20.95% 67.92%-1.05 -11.0 30
2026-04-14 Dunfermline Athletic D 2-261.4 1346 1452 29.55% 28.12% 42.33%-0.26 +0.5 31
2026-04-14 @ Airdrieonians D 2-261.4 1452 1346 42.33% 28.12% 29.55%+0.26 -0.5 47
2026-04-14 Raith Rovers L 0-241.7 1359 1395 39.03% 28.31% 32.65%+0.02 -18.2 39
2026-04-14 @ Queens Park W 2-041.7 1395 1359 32.65% 28.31% 39.03%-0.02 +18.2 42
2026-04-18 Partick Thistle D 2-263.5 1347 1517 22.30% 26.93% 50.77%-0.53 +1.1 32
2026-04-18 @ Airdrieonians D 2-263.5 1517 1347 50.77% 26.93% 22.30%+0.53 -1.1 64
2026-04-18 Raith Rovers W 2-149.8 1367 1413 37.56% 28.36% 34.09%-0.02 +8.2 50
2026-04-18 @ Arbroath L 1-249.8 1413 1367 34.09% 28.36% 37.56%+0.02 -8.2 42
2026-04-18 Queens Park D 0-049.0 1358 1341 46.21% 27.70% 26.08%+0.24 -1.1 37
2026-04-18 @ Greenock Morton D 0-049.0 1341 1358 26.08% 27.70% 46.21%-0.24 +1.1 40
2026-04-18 Ayr United W 2-150.0 1281 1375 30.92% 28.22% 40.85%-0.22 +9.4 31
2026-04-18 @ Ross County L 1-250.0 1375 1281 40.85% 28.22% 30.92%+0.22 -9.4 39
2026-04-21 St. Johnstone L 0-246.3 1451 1585 26.16% 27.71% 46.13%-0.38 -13.5 47
2026-04-21 @ Dunfermline Athletic W 2-046.3 1585 1451 46.13% 27.71% 26.16%+0.38 +13.5 71
2026-04-24 Raith Rovers W 2-039.2 1598 1405 65.78% 21.96% 12.26%+0.96 +6.5 74
2026-04-24 @ St. Johnstone L 0-239.2 1405 1598 12.26% 21.96% 65.78%-0.96 -6.5 42
2026-04-25 Ayr United W 2-147.4 1348 1366 41.59% 28.17% 30.24%+0.09 +7.5 35
2026-04-25 @ Airdrieonians L 1-247.4 1366 1348 30.24% 28.17% 41.59%-0.09 -7.5 39
2026-04-25 Partick Thistle D 0-053.3 1375 1516 25.33% 27.58% 47.09%-0.41 +1.2 51
2026-04-25 @ Arbroath D 0-053.3 1516 1375 47.09% 27.58% 25.33%+0.41 -1.2 65
2026-04-25 Dunfermline Athletic L 0-239.7 1342 1438 30.77% 28.21% 41.02%-0.22 -15.3 40
2026-04-25 @ Queens Park W 2-039.7 1438 1342 41.02% 28.21% 30.77%+0.22 +15.3 50
2026-04-25 Greenock Morton W 4-038.1 1290 1357 34.71% 28.37% 36.92%-0.11 +33.1 34
2026-04-25 @ Ross County L 0-438.1 1357 1290 36.92% 28.37% 34.71%+0.11 -33.1 37
2026-05-01 St. Johnstone L 0-142.7 1358 1605 16.06% 24.54% 59.40%-0.84 -4.6 39
2026-05-01 @ Ayr United W 1-042.7 1605 1358 59.40% 24.54% 16.06%+0.84 +4.6 77
2026-05-01 Arbroath D 0-051.9 1453 1376 53.58% 26.29% 20.13%+0.48 -1.9 51
2026-05-01 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 0-051.9 1376 1453 20.13% 26.29% 53.58%-0.48 +1.9 52
2026-05-01 Airdrieonians D 1-153.6 1324 1356 39.61% 28.29% 32.10%+0.04 -0.4 38
2026-05-01 @ Greenock Morton D 1-153.6 1356 1324 32.10% 28.29% 39.61%-0.04 +0.4 36
2026-05-01 Queens Park D 1-158.4 1515 1327 65.33% 22.17% 12.51%+0.94 -2.9 66
2026-05-01 @ Partick Thistle D 1-158.4 1327 1515 12.51% 22.17% 65.33%-0.94 +2.9 41
2026-05-01 Ross County W 3-248.9 1399 1323 53.45% 26.33% 20.23%+0.47 +5.1 45
2026-05-01 @ Raith Rovers L 2-348.9 1323 1399 20.23% 26.33% 53.45%-0.47 -5.1 34

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
2026-05-05 Arbroath W 1-040.4 1451 1378 53.13% 26.40% 20.47%+0.46 +5.8 1-0
2026-05-05 @ Dunfermline Athletic L 0-140.4 1378 1451 20.47% 26.40% 53.13%-0.46 -5.8 0-1
2026-05-08 Dunfermline Athletic D 0-051.3 1373 1457 32.26% 28.30% 39.44%-0.18 +0.4 0-1-1
2026-05-08 @ Arbroath D 0-051.3 1457 1373 39.44% 28.30% 32.26%+0.18 -0.4 1-0-1
2026-05-12 Partick Thistle D 1-160.7 1456 1512 36.24% 28.37% 35.39%-0.06 -0.0 1-0-2
2026-05-12 @ Dunfermline Athletic D 1-160.7 1512 1456 35.39% 28.37% 36.24%+0.06 +0.0 0-0-1
2026-05-15 Dunfermline Athletic W 2-151.3 1512 1456 51.12% 26.86% 22.02%+0.39 +5.8 1-0-1
2026-05-15 @ Partick Thistle L 1-251.3 1456 1512 22.02% 26.86% 51.12%-0.39 -5.8 1-1-2
2026-05-21 St. Mirren D 1-1 1518 1463 50.99% 26.89% 22.12%+0.39 -1.5 1-0-2
2026-05-21 @ Partick Thistle D 1-1 1463 1518 22.12% 26.89% 50.99%-0.39 +1.5 0-0-1
2026-05-25 Partick Thistle W 1-050.2 1465 1516 36.80% 28.37% 34.83%-0.05 +8.9 1-0-1
2026-05-25 @ St. Mirren L 0-150.2 1516 1465 34.83% 28.37% 36.80%+0.05 -8.9 1-1-2

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2026-01-24 15.70% Dunfermline Athletic 1424 1 @ St. Johnstone 1558 0
2 2026-01-31 15.90% Airdrieonians 1306 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1438 0
3 2025-11-15 16.59% Airdrieonians 1291 3 @ Raith Rovers 1412 0
4 2025-09-06 17.07% Arbroath 1312 2 @ Ross County 1427 1
5 2025-10-18 17.98% @ Arbroath 1298 3 St. Johnstone 1518 1
6 2025-12-06 18.12% Arbroath 1335 2 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1436 1
7 2026-03-10 18.43% Queens Park 1345 2 @ Ayr United 1442 1
8 2025-12-13 20.00% Airdrieonians 1331 1 @ Greenock Morton 1409 0
9 2026-03-21 20.24% Greenock Morton 1354 1 @ Ayr United 1429 0
10 2025-09-20 20.57% Queens Park 1344 2 @ Ross County 1415 1
11 2026-01-09 20.70% @ Ross County 1303 2 Partick Thistle 1490 0
12 2025-08-09 20.99% Arbroath 1294 3 @ Queens Park 1361 1
13 2025-12-06 23.04% Airdrieonians 1320 2 @ Ross County 1366 1
14 2025-10-31 23.22% Dunfermline Athletic 1423 1 @ Ayr United 1467 0
15 2025-12-20 23.89% Queens Park 1307 3 @ Airdrieonians 1344 0
16 2026-01-10 24.05% Arbroath 1371 3 @ Raith Rovers 1406 2
17 2025-12-13 24.12% @ Arbroath 1347 2 Partick Thistle 1500 1
18 2025-08-23 25.13% Partick Thistle 1420 3 @ Ross County 1445 1
19 2026-02-14 25.92% Queens Park 1323 1 @ Ross County 1341 0
20 2025-11-15 26.35% Greenock Morton 1381 3 @ Ross County 1396 0
21 2026-04-04 27.33% Airdrieonians 1319 4 @ Ross County 1325 0
22 2025-12-27 27.68% Dunfermline Athletic 1414 2 @ Raith Rovers 1417 1
23 2026-02-03 27.68% Ross County 1330 1 @ Queens Park 1333 0
24 2025-11-08 27.89% @ Queens Park 1303 2 Raith Rovers 1422 1
25 2025-08-09 27.95% Raith Rovers 1443 1 @ Ayr United 1444 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-09-13 40.60 Dunfermline Athletic 5 1378 35.00% @ Arbroath 0 1325 36.63% 28.37%
2 2026-04-04 38.37 Airdrieonians 4 1319 27.33% @ Ross County 0 1325 44.79% 27.88%
3 2025-11-15 36.62 Airdrieonians 3 1291 16.59% @ Raith Rovers 0 1412 58.58% 24.82%
4 2025-12-13 36.35 @ Raith Rovers 6 1379 47.15% Ross County 0 1355 25.28% 27.57%
5 2026-04-25 33.13 @ Ross County 4 1290 34.71% Greenock Morton 0 1357 36.92% 28.37%
6 2025-12-20 31.47 Queens Park 3 1307 23.89% @ Airdrieonians 0 1344 48.80% 27.30%
7 2025-10-21 30.36 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1400 38.94% @ Airdrieonians 0 1319 32.74% 28.32%
8 2025-11-15 29.95 Greenock Morton 3 1381 26.35% @ Ross County 0 1396 45.90% 27.74%
9 2025-10-25 29.04 St. Johnstone 4 1497 40.94% @ Greenock Morton 0 1402 30.85% 28.22%
10 2025-11-01 28.66 @ Arbroath 3 1311 28.56% Ross County 0 1424 43.42% 28.02%
11 2026-04-07 25.80 Dunfermline Athletic 3 1438 33.85% @ Ayr United 0 1393 37.80% 28.35%
12 2026-01-31 25.58 Airdrieonians 2 1306 15.90% @ Dunfermline Athletic 0 1438 59.64% 24.46%
13 2026-03-27 24.34 @ Raith Rovers 3 1365 36.76% Ayr United 0 1417 34.87% 28.37%
14 2026-01-09 23.14 @ Ross County 2 1303 20.70% Partick Thistle 0 1490 52.83% 26.48%
15 2025-08-02 22.36 @ St. Johnstone 5 1445 44.22% Partick Thistle 1 1443 27.84% 27.94%
16 2025-10-11 21.39 @ Arbroath 4 1277 34.70% Queens Park 1 1343 36.93% 28.37%
17 2025-10-18 21.21 @ Arbroath 3 1298 17.98% St. Johnstone 1 1518 56.55% 25.47%
18 2025-08-09 19.92 Arbroath 3 1294 20.99% @ Queens Park 1 1361 52.44% 26.57%
19 2025-10-11 19.52 Ayr United 2 1450 29.12% @ Raith Rovers 0 1441 42.80% 28.08%
20 2026-03-14 19.21 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1409 46.76% Raith Rovers 0 1388 25.61% 27.63%
21 2025-12-20 19.19 @ St. Johnstone 5 1538 60.69% Greenock Morton 0 1397 15.24% 24.07%
22 2025-09-13 18.99 St. Johnstone 2 1486 30.47% @ Raith Rovers 0 1467 41.34% 28.19%
23 2025-11-01 18.87 @ Partick Thistle 5 1468 61.09% Queens Park 0 1322 14.99% 23.92%
24 2025-08-23 18.31 Partick Thistle 3 1420 25.13% @ Ross County 1 1445 47.32% 27.54%
25 2026-04-14 18.19 Raith Rovers 2 1395 32.65% @ Queens Park 0 1359 39.03% 28.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-01-30 69.0 @ St. Johnstone 2 1545 52.87% Partick Thistle 2 1474 20.66% 26.46%
2 2025-11-08 66.6 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1435 30.29% St. Johnstone 2 1534 41.53% 28.18%
3 2025-11-08 66.2 @ Ross County 3 1396 35.70% Ayr United 3 1455 35.93% 28.37%
4 2026-04-18 63.5 @ Airdrieonians 2 1347 22.30% Partick Thistle 2 1517 50.77% 26.93%
5 2026-02-24 63.1 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1384 30.81% Partick Thistle 2 1480 40.98% 28.21%
6 2025-08-23 62.4 @ Greenock Morton 2 1409 40.71% Ayr United 2 1433 31.05% 28.23%
7 2025-12-27 62.2 @ Queens Park 2 1338 24.49% Partick Thistle 2 1487 48.09% 27.42%
8 2025-08-02 61.9 @ Airdrieonians 2 1367 31.68% Ross County 2 1456 40.05% 28.27%
9 2025-08-30 61.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1378 37.19% Ross County 2 1427 34.44% 28.36%
10 2026-04-14 61.4 @ Airdrieonians 2 1346 29.55% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1452 42.33% 28.12%
11 2026-03-28 61.2 @ St. Johnstone 1 1568 68.08% Queens Park 1 1350 11.05% 20.88%
12 2026-05-12 * 60.7 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1456 36.24% Partick Thistle 1 1512 35.39% 28.37%
13 2026-03-21 60.6 @ Ross County 2 1331 30.55% Dunfermline Athletic 2 1428 41.25% 28.20%
14 2025-08-30 58.9 @ St. Johnstone 1 1488 53.92% Greenock Morton 1 1409 19.87% 26.21%
15 2025-12-20 58.8 Ayr United 3 1447 31.06% @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1423 40.71% 28.23%
16 2026-03-20 58.8 @ Partick Thistle 0 1484 32.27% St. Johnstone 0 1568 39.43% 28.30%
17 2026-02-24 58.7 @ Queens Park 1 1342 19.13% St. Johnstone 1 1547 54.93% 25.94%
18 2026-01-10 58.6 Arbroath 3 1371 24.05% @ Raith Rovers 2 1406 48.62% 27.34%
19 2026-04-04 58.4 @ Ayr United 1 1392 28.55% Partick Thistle 1 1506 43.42% 28.02%
20 2026-05-01 58.4 @ Partick Thistle 1 1515 65.33% Queens Park 1 1327 12.51% 22.17%
21 2025-10-11 57.7 @ Greenock Morton 1 1408 34.97% Partick Thistle 1 1472 36.66% 28.37%
22 2025-11-22 57.6 @ Partick Thistle 2 1485 36.82% St. Johnstone 1 1536 34.81% 28.37%
23 2025-08-30 57.1 @ Partick Thistle 3 1438 40.34% Raith Rovers 2 1465 31.41% 28.25%
24 2025-09-13 56.9 @ Ayr United 1 1431 46.26% Ross County 1 1414 26.05% 27.70%
25 2025-10-04 56.6 @ Partick Thistle 1 1475 66.58% Arbroath 1 1274 11.83% 21.59%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-09-27 30.7 @ Raith Rovers 3 1447 62.81% Arbroath 0 1285 13.94% 23.24%
2 2025-11-01 30.7 @ St. Johnstone 3 1526 69.08% Airdrieonians 0 1297 10.54% 20.38%
3 2025-08-23 31.8 @ St. Johnstone 3 1477 62.90% Arbroath 0 1314 13.89% 23.21%
4 2025-11-01 32.9 @ Partick Thistle 5 1468 61.09% Queens Park 0 1322 14.99% 23.92%
5 2026-04-11 34.3 @ St. Johnstone 4 1574 67.92% Airdrieonians 0 1358 11.13% 20.95%
6 2026-03-03 34.9 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1391 49.31% Ross County 0 1350 23.48% 27.21%
7 2025-12-13 36.8 @ Raith Rovers 6 1379 47.15% Ross County 0 1355 25.28% 27.57%
8 2026-03-14 36.8 @ Dunfermline Athletic 3 1409 46.76% Raith Rovers 0 1388 25.61% 27.63%
9 2025-12-20 37.2 @ St. Johnstone 5 1538 60.69% Greenock Morton 0 1397 15.24% 24.07%
10 2026-02-21 37.2 @ Partick Thistle 1 1475 61.45% Airdrieonians 0 1327 14.77% 23.79%
11 2026-03-14 37.5 @ St. Johnstone 1 1565 69.30% Ross County 0 1334 10.43% 20.27%
12 2026-04-10 37.5 @ Queens Park 1 1353 52.40% Ross County 0 1287 21.02% 26.58%
13 2025-10-21 37.7 Dunfermline Athletic 4 1400 38.94% @ Airdrieonians 0 1319 32.74% 28.32%
14 2025-08-09 37.8 @ Dunfermline Athletic 2 1375 45.03% Airdrieonians 0 1367 27.12% 27.85%
15 2025-08-22 37.8 @ Raith Rovers 2 1453 52.17% Dunfermline Athletic 0 1389 21.20% 26.63%
16 2026-04-25 38.1 @ Ross County 4 1290 34.71% Greenock Morton 0 1357 36.92% 28.37%
17 2026-01-24 39.1 @ Raith Rovers 4 1396 51.28% Queens Park 1 1339 21.89% 26.82%
18 2026-04-24 39.2 @ St. Johnstone 2 1598 65.78% Raith Rovers 0 1405 12.26% 21.96%
19 2025-09-13 39.3 Dunfermline Athletic 5 1378 35.00% @ Arbroath 0 1325 36.63% 28.37%
20 2026-03-27 39.4 @ Raith Rovers 3 1365 36.76% Ayr United 0 1417 34.87% 28.37%
21 2025-11-08 39.5 @ Greenock Morton 1 1374 48.51% Arbroath 0 1340 24.14% 27.35%
22 2026-02-28 39.5 @ Dunfermline Athletic 1 1385 49.30% Queens Park 0 1344 23.49% 27.22%
23 2026-04-25 39.7 Dunfermline Athletic 2 1438 41.02% @ Queens Park 0 1342 30.77% 28.21%
24 2026-01-03 40.0 @ St. Johnstone 1 1555 64.56% Arbroath 0 1374 12.93% 22.51%
25 2026-03-27 40.0 @ Partick Thistle 3 1499 63.38% Ross County 1 1331 13.61% 23.01%