‹ ›

2004-05 Slovenian PrvaLiga Season

192 games

Final

Champion

Gorica

47 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Gorica

9.98 points above expected

47 points · 37.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Zagorje

9.53 points below expected

13 points · 22.53 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Gorica 22 14 5 3 47 39 20 +19 37.02 +9.98
2 Celje 22 11 4 7 37 33 18 +15 33.90 +3.10
3 Primorje 22 10 5 7 35 28 20 +8 33.64 +1.36
4 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 22 10 5 7 35 28 26 +2 31.34 +3.66
5 Domzale 22 9 6 7 33 33 27 +6 27.75 +5.25
6 Drava Ptuj 22 9 5 8 32 27 27 0 28.49 +3.51
7 Maribor 22 9 5 8 32 30 27 +3 33.04 -1.04
8 Ljubljana 22 7 8 7 29 30 32 -2 28.02 +0.98
9 NK Mura 22 7 7 8 28 31 28 +3 29.30 -1.30
10 Bela Krajina 22 5 6 11 21 20 39 -19 24.78 -3.78
11 Anet Koper 22 4 7 11 19 20 30 -10 27.19 -8.19
12 Zagorje 22 2 7 13 13 11 36 -25 22.53 -9.53
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Maribor 10 6 1 3 19 17 9 +8 48.37 -29.37
2 Domzale 10 5 4 1 19 15 9 +6 45.77 -26.77
3 Gorica 10 4 6 0 18 10 3 +7 63.30 -45.30
4 Anet Koper 10 5 2 3 17 18 11 +7 31.98 -14.98
5 Bela Krajina 10 4 4 2 16 11 5 +6 32.59 -16.59
6 NK Mura 10 4 4 2 16 12 10 +2 44.50 -28.50
7 Celje 10 5 0 5 15 14 10 +4 51.93 -36.93
8 Drava Ptuj 10 3 5 2 14 13 9 +4 42.36 -28.36
9 Ljubljana 10 3 4 3 13 8 11 -3 44.34 -31.34
10 Primorje 10 2 5 3 11 9 10 -1 48.95 -37.95
11 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 10 0 2 8 2 6 26 -20 48.04 -46.04
12 Zagorje 10 0 1 9 1 6 26 -20 21.73 -20.73

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Gorica 47 37.02 +9.98
2 Domzale 33 27.75 +5.25
3 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 35 31.34 +3.66
4 Drava Ptuj 32 28.49 +3.51
5 Celje 37 33.90 +3.10

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Zagorje 13 22.53 -9.53
2 Anet Koper 19 27.19 -8.19
3 Bela Krajina 21 24.78 -3.78
4 NK Mura 28 29.30 -1.30
5 Maribor 32 33.04 -1.04

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gorica 5 Aug 29 – Sep 26 1 in 60
2 Celje 4 Sep 22 – Oct 17 1 in 51
3 Domzale 3 Nov 14 – Nov 27 1 in 29
4 NK Mura 3 Aug 15 – Aug 29 1 in 19
5 Drava Ptuj 2 Jul 30 – Aug 8 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Anet Koper 8 Oct 17 – Mar 5 1 in 1,181
2 NK Mura 3 Nov 27 – Mar 13 1 in 29
3 Gorica 2 Oct 17 – Oct 30 1 in 19
4 Bela Krajina 3 Aug 1 – Aug 15 1 in 16
5 Zagorje 4 Sep 18 – Oct 3 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Anet Koper 8 Aug 14 – Oct 2 1 in 38
2 Gorica 10 Jul 31 – Oct 3 1 in 26
3 Bela Krajina 5 Nov 27 – Mar 19 1 in 25
4 Domzale 5 Sep 26 – Oct 31 1 in 12
5 Celje 6 Sep 12 – Oct 17 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Anet Koper 9 Oct 2 – Mar 5 1 in 28
2 NK Mura 7 Sep 11 – Oct 24 1 in 27
3 Zagorje 11 Oct 24 – Apr 2 1 in 19
4 Ljubljana 7 Aug 8 – Sep 22 1 in 15
5 Bela Krajina 6 Sep 12 – Oct 17 1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Gorica 1639 65 +1 7 8.9 -1.9
Domzale 1573 52 +36 11 7.3 +3.7
Celje 1577 52 -28 6 7.9 -1.9
Maribor 1516 51 -25 7 8.9 -1.9
Primorje 1537 46 +21 8 6.2 +1.8
Drava Ptuj 1504 46 +11 6 6.0 -0.0
NK Mura 1502 44 -2 8 8.1 -0.1
Ljubljana 1446 42 +25 9 6.4 +2.6
Bela Krajina 1459 37 +23 6 6.7 -0.7
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1388 37 -40 1 4.4 -3.4
Anet Koper 1464 36 +22 8 7.2 +0.8
Zagorje 1229 14 -43 1 3.5 -2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AK BK CEL DOM DP GOR LJU MAR NM OL( PRI ZAG
Anet Koper —
1-1-0
2.85
0-0-2
2.43
0-1-1
2.56
0-1-1
2.66
0-0-2
2.39
0-1-1
2.66
0-1-1
2.05
1-1-0
2.23
0-1-1
2.50
1-0-1
1.94
1-0-1
3.35
Bela Krajina
0-1-1
2.55
—
1-0-1
1.90
0-0-2
2.24
1-0-1
2.34
0-1-1
1.72
0-2-0
2.22
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.87
Celje
2-0-0
2.97
1-0-1
3.53
—
0-0-2
3.48
0-0-2
3.32
1-1-0
2.39
2-0-0
3.09
0-1-1
2.89
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
4.01
Domzale
1-1-0
2.85
2-0-0
3.19
2-0-0
1.95
—
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
2.06
1-1-0
2.68
1-1-0
2.41
0-1-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.36
0-0-2
2.47
0-1-1
3.04
Drava Ptuj
1-1-0
2.75
1-0-1
3.07
2-0-0
2.10
0-0-2
2.54
—
1-1-0
1.64
0-1-1
2.69
1-0-1
2.22
1-0-1
2.51
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.15
2-0-0
3.17
Gorica
2-0-0
3.03
1-1-0
3.75
0-1-1
3.02
2-0-0
3.36
0-1-1
3.83
—
0-1-1
3.56
2-0-0
3.01
2-0-0
3.11
2-0-0
3.20
1-1-0
2.76
2-0-0
4.11
Ljubljana
1-1-0
2.75
0-2-0
3.19
0-0-2
2.33
0-1-1
2.73
1-1-0
2.72
1-1-0
1.88
—
1-0-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.67
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
2.12
1-1-0
2.83
Maribor
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.09
1-1-0
2.51
0-1-1
3.01
1-0-1
3.19
0-0-2
2.41
1-0-1
3.13
—
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-2
2.83
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
3.37
NK Mura
0-1-1
3.19
1-1-0
3.14
0-1-1
2.57
1-1-0
2.79
1-0-1
2.90
0-0-2
2.30
1-0-1
2.76
0-1-1
2.66
—
1-1-0
2.50
0-1-1
2.41
2-0-0
3.32
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st)
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
3.31
0-0-2
2.52
1-1-0
3.06
1-1-0
3.10
0-0-2
2.22
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
2.58
0-1-1
2.91
—
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.63
Primorje
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.81
2-0-0
2.93
1-1-0
3.27
0-1-1
2.65
0-1-1
3.31
1-0-1
2.89
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.97
—
1-1-0
3.72
Zagorje
1-0-1
2.07
0-1-1
2.54
0-1-1
1.47
1-1-0
2.37
0-0-2
2.24
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.58
0-1-1
2.06
0-0-2
2.10
0-1-1
1.81
0-1-1
1.73
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.85 +11.3
Allowed 0.70 -12.0
Differential 0.89 +6.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.94%7.81%9.38%2.86%0.52%1.04%32.55%
17.81%13.54%5.47%3.91%1.56%0.26%32.55%
29.38%5.47%3.12%2.60%0.52%—21.09%
32.86%3.91%2.60%0.52%——9.90%
40.52%1.56%0.52%———2.60%
5+1.04%0.26%————1.30%
Total32.55%32.55%21.09%9.90%2.60%1.30%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.18 1.18 1.78
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 192

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%9.38%18.75%3.12%——40.62%
19.38%15.62%3.12%3.12%——31.25%
2——3.12%6.25%——9.38%
33.12%6.25%————9.38%
4—3.12%3.12%———6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total25.00%34.38%28.12%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.28 -0.09
SD 1.40 0.99 1.80
CV 1.18 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%6.25%9.38%—3.12%3.12%31.25%
115.62%18.75%6.25%6.25%3.12%—50.00%
2—3.12%3.12%3.12%——9.38%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%31.25%18.75%9.38%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.38 -0.41
SD 0.90 1.36 1.78
CV 0.93 0.99 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.12%15.62%12.50%———31.25%
112.50%6.25%6.25%———25.00%
215.62%3.12%3.12%3.12%——25.00%
36.25%3.12%————9.38%
4—6.25%————6.25%
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total40.62%34.38%21.88%3.12%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 0.88 +0.59
SD 1.46 0.87 1.92
CV 0.99 1.00 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.38%3.12%6.25%———18.75%
112.50%18.75%6.25%6.25%——43.75%
26.25%6.25%—3.12%——15.62%
33.12%6.25%6.25%3.12%——18.75%
4———————
5+—3.12%————3.12%
Total31.25%37.50%18.75%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.12 +0.38
SD 1.30 1.01 1.54
CV 0.86 0.90 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%12.50%3.12%———31.25%
19.38%9.38%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
29.38%9.38%3.12%3.12%3.12%—28.12%
3——6.25%3.12%——9.38%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total34.38%34.38%18.75%9.38%3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.12 +0.12
SD 1.11 1.10 1.24
CV 0.89 0.98 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%3.12%——3.12%—21.88%
16.25%15.62%3.12%———25.00%
225.00%12.50%3.12%———40.62%
3—3.12%6.25%———9.38%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total50.00%34.38%12.50%—3.12%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.72 +0.81
SD 1.24 0.92 1.57
CV 0.81 1.29 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%6.25%3.12%9.38%——31.25%
13.12%21.88%3.12%—6.25%3.12%37.50%
29.38%6.25%3.12%———18.75%
33.12%3.12%————6.25%
43.12%—3.12%———6.25%
5+———————
Total31.25%37.50%12.50%9.38%6.25%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.34 -0.16
SD 1.15 1.45 2.00
CV 0.97 1.08 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%6.25%6.25%——25.00%
13.12%9.38%9.38%6.25%——28.12%
215.62%9.38%3.12%———28.12%
36.25%6.25%3.12%———15.62%
4———————
5+3.12%—————3.12%
Total34.38%31.25%21.88%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.12 +0.34
SD 1.22 1.04 1.89
CV 0.83 0.92 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%—12.50%———28.12%
1—12.50%6.25%9.38%——28.12%
215.62%3.12%6.25%3.12%——28.12%
33.12%6.25%3.12%———12.50%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total34.38%25.00%28.12%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.19 +0.16
SD 1.12 1.06 1.59
CV 0.84 0.89 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%3.12%15.62%3.12%—3.12%31.25%
112.50%12.50%3.12%3.12%9.38%—40.62%
26.25%6.25%3.12%6.25%——21.88%
33.12%—————3.12%
4—3.12%————3.12%
5+———————
Total28.12%25.00%21.88%12.50%9.38%3.12%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.62 -0.56
SD 0.98 1.52 1.98
CV 0.92 0.93 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.62%15.62%6.25%3.12%——40.62%
16.25%12.50%3.12%———21.88%
29.38%6.25%3.12%3.12%——21.88%
3—9.38%3.12%———12.50%
43.12%—————3.12%
5+———————
Total34.38%43.75%15.62%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 0.94 +0.22
SD 1.19 0.88 1.48
CV 1.03 0.94 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 32

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%18.75%9.38%—6.25%59.38%
13.12%9.38%9.38%9.38%——31.25%
2——3.12%—3.12%—6.25%
3——3.12%———3.12%
4———————
5+———————
Total15.62%21.88%34.38%18.75%3.12%6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.53 1.94 -1.41
SD 0.76 1.41 1.54
CV 1.43 0.73 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 32

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Gorica 1639 47 37.02 +9.98 96.0% 20 25 33 37 41 46 50
Celje 1577 37 33.90 +3.10 75.0% 13 26 30 34 37 43 47
Domzale 1573 33 27.75 +5.25 86.0% 15 20 24 27 31 37 43
Primorje 1537 35 33.64 +1.36 59.0% 20 22 29 34 38 43 47
Maribor 1516 32 33.04 -1.04 48.0% 19 24 28 33 38 42 45
Drava Ptuj 1504 32 28.49 +3.51 75.0% 17 19 24 28 32 39 45
NK Mura 1502 28 29.30 -1.30 45.0% 13 20 26 29 33 39 42
Anet Koper 1464 19 27.19 -8.19 8.0% 15 17 23 27 30 39 42
Bela Krajina 1459 21 24.78 -3.78 25.0% 12 16 21 24 28 33 41
Ljubljana 1446 29 28.02 +0.98 60.0% 15 19 24 27 32 37 41
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1388 35 31.34 +3.66 77.0% 17 21 28 31 35 41 47
Zagorje 1229 13 22.53 -9.53 4.0% 11 14 19 23 27 30 34

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8% * Slight Edge: 8% to 17% * Clear Edge: 17% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Slight Edge
42.19%28.12%29.69%
Elo Value
Home Edge
152 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
043.66400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.19 * Comfortable: 0.19 to 0.25 * Runaway: 0.25 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.2
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
36%
Gorica, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.45/gm
Runaway
00.170.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.62 * Some Luck: 4.62 to 6.93 * Lucky: 6.93 to 9.23 * Wild Swing: 9.23 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.99 * Close: 1.99 to 2.99 * Off: 2.99 to 3.98 * Way Off: 3.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
5.31 points
Some Luck
05.7714
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
02.495
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.00%
Gorica
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
4.00%
Zagorje
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.15 * Even: 0.15 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.8 * Moderate Separation: 1.8 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 72% * Wide Edge: 72% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 88.5% * Strong Edge: 88.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 58.5% * Some Drama: 58.5% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 63% * Very Frequent: 63% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15% * Occasional: 15% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 21% * Very Frequent: 21% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.150.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 78.26
1.49
Coin-Flip Parity
11.82.052.75
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%72%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
60%
Some Drama
0%60%100%
Blowouts
Expected
12%
Rare
0%16%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.31 * Slight Separation: 0.31 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.42 * Some Carryover: 0.42 to 0.63 * Strong Carryover: 0.63 to 0.79 * Near-Lock: 0.79 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 22.5% * Upset-Prone: 22.5% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16.5% * As Expected: 16.5% to 19% * Shaky Favorites: 19% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.26
Very Even
00.310.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.87
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Some Carryover
00.420.630.791
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.17
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.093
Well Within Noise
00.1260.3

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Gorica36.00%15.00%18.00%8.00%7.00%5.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%—
Celje12.00%17.00%16.00%10.00%14.00%17.00%4.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%—1.00%
Primorje12.00%18.00%17.00%15.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%5.00%5.00%4.00%2.00%
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st)10.00%12.00%6.00%13.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%2.00%
Domzale2.00%2.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%8.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%7.00%
Drava Ptuj5.00%3.00%6.00%8.00%8.00%15.00%4.00%11.00%15.00%6.00%12.00%7.00%
Maribor13.00%18.00%12.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%
Ljubljana2.00%4.00%3.00%13.00%8.00%6.00%14.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%
NK Mura2.00%7.00%8.00%11.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%12.00%8.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%
Bela Krajina1.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%5.00%8.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%15.00%20.00%
Anet Koper5.00%2.00%7.00%1.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%9.00%18.00%11.00%10.00%
Zagorje———1.00%4.00%2.00%9.00%9.00%9.00%13.00%18.00%35.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celje 100% —
Gorica 100% —
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 100% —
Primorje 100% —
Maribor 99.00% 1.00%
Domzale 97.00% 3.00%
Anet Koper 96.00% 4.00%
NK Mura 96.00% 4.00%
Drava Ptuj 95.00% 5.00%
Ljubljana 92.00% 8.00%
Bela Krajina 82.00% 18.00%
Zagorje 43.00% 57.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that fixed the regular-season standings and projected only the promotion/relegation playoff, each participating team's chance of going up versus staying at this level.

Team Same level Lost relegation playoff
Celje 100% —
Domzale 100% —
Drava Ptuj 100% —
Gorica 100% —
Maribor 100% —
Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 100% —
Primorje 100% —
Ljubljana 99.98% 0.02%
NK Mura 99.98% 0.02%
Bela Krajina 96.06% 3.94%
Anet Koper 94.22% 5.78%
Zagorje 9.76% 90.24%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2004-07-30 Drava Ptuj L 0-152.7 1486 1439 47.38% 28.84% 23.78%+0.60 -12.7 0
2004-07-30 @ Celje W 1-052.7 1439 1486 23.78% 28.84% 47.38%-0.60 +12.7 3
2004-07-31 Gorica L 0-250.3 1499 1517 38.76% 29.75% 31.49%+0.17 -20.4 0
2004-07-31 @ Anet Koper W 2-050.3 1517 1499 31.49% 29.75% 38.76%-0.17 +20.4 3
2004-08-01 Bela Krajina W 4-044.9 1515 1501 43.12% 29.43% 27.45%+0.38 +30.2 3
2004-08-01 @ Primorje L 0-444.9 1501 1515 27.45% 29.43% 43.12%-0.38 -30.2 0
2004-08-01 NK Mura D 1-162.2 1510 1485 44.69% 29.24% 26.07%+0.46 -1.0 1
2004-08-01 @ Maribor D 1-162.2 1485 1510 26.07% 29.24% 44.69%-0.46 +1.0 1
2004-08-01 Zagorje W 2-043.1 1452 1449 41.66% 29.57% 28.78%+0.31 +16.5 3
2004-08-01 @ Ljubljana L 0-243.1 1449 1452 28.78% 29.57% 41.66%-0.31 -16.5 0
2004-08-06 Anet Koper W 3-043.4 1473 1479 40.43% 29.66% 29.91%+0.25 +24.6 3
2004-08-06 @ Celje L 0-343.4 1479 1473 29.91% 29.66% 40.43%-0.25 -24.6 0
2004-08-07 Maribor L 1-257.6 1471 1509 35.84% 29.84% 34.32%+0.03 -9.7 0
2004-08-07 @ Bela Krajina W 2-157.6 1509 1471 34.32% 29.84% 35.84%-0.03 +9.7 4
2004-08-08 Domzale W 3-259.1 1433 1465 36.69% 29.82% 33.48%+0.07 +8.7 3
2004-08-08 @ Zagorje L 2-359.1 1465 1433 33.48% 29.82% 36.69%-0.07 -8.7 0
2004-08-08 Ljubljana D 0-057.8 1538 1469 50.08% 28.32% 21.60%+0.74 -1.8 4
2004-08-08 @ Gorica D 0-057.8 1469 1538 21.60% 28.32% 50.08%-0.74 +1.8 4
2004-08-08 NK Mura W 2-045.8 1452 1486 36.48% 29.83% 33.70%+0.06 +18.5 6
2004-08-08 @ Drava Ptuj L 0-245.8 1486 1452 33.70% 29.83% 36.48%-0.06 -18.5 1
2004-08-14 Celje L 0-248.1 1471 1498 37.45% 29.80% 32.74%+0.11 -19.9 4
2004-08-14 @ Ljubljana W 2-048.1 1498 1471 32.74% 29.80% 37.45%-0.11 +19.9 6
2004-08-14 Drava Ptuj D 0-054.3 1454 1470 39.02% 29.74% 31.24%+0.18 -0.5 1
2004-08-14 @ Anet Koper D 0-054.3 1470 1454 31.24% 29.74% 39.02%-0.18 +0.5 7
2004-08-15 Bela Krajina W 3-150.0 1467 1461 41.99% 29.54% 28.48%+0.33 +14.2 4
2004-08-15 @ NK Mura L 1-350.0 1461 1467 28.48% 29.54% 41.99%-0.33 -14.2 0
2004-08-15 Gorica L 1-256.3 1456 1536 30.20% 29.68% 40.12%-0.24 -8.5 0
2004-08-15 @ Domzale W 2-156.3 1536 1456 40.12% 29.68% 30.20%+0.24 +8.5 7
2004-08-15 Zagorje D 0-057.4 1545 1441 54.23% 27.27% 18.50%+0.97 -2.3 4
2004-08-15 @ Primorje D 0-057.4 1441 1545 18.50% 27.27% 54.23%-0.97 +2.3 4
2004-08-20 Domzale L 2-366.0 1518 1448 50.23% 28.28% 21.49%+0.75 -11.9 6
2004-08-20 @ Celje W 3-266.0 1448 1518 21.49% 28.28% 50.23%-0.75 +11.9 3
2004-08-20 Primorje D 0-060.3 1544 1543 41.37% 29.59% 29.04%+0.30 -0.8 8
2004-08-20 @ Gorica D 0-060.3 1543 1544 29.04% 29.59% 41.37%-0.30 +0.7 5
2004-08-21 Ljubljana D 2-264.9 1454 1451 41.63% 29.57% 28.80%+0.31 -0.5 2
2004-08-21 @ Anet Koper D 2-264.9 1451 1454 28.80% 29.57% 41.63%-0.31 +0.5 5
2004-08-21 Maribor D 0-055.7 1444 1519 30.72% 29.71% 39.56%-0.21 +0.5 5
2004-08-21 @ Zagorje D 0-055.7 1519 1444 39.56% 29.71% 30.72%+0.21 -0.5 5
2004-08-21 NK Mura L 0-251.3 1513 1481 45.47% 29.14% 25.39%+0.50 -23.1 0
2004-08-21 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-051.3 1481 1513 25.39% 29.14% 45.47%-0.50 +23.1 7
2004-08-22 Bela Krajina L 0-151.6 1471 1447 44.35% 29.28% 26.36%+0.44 -12.0 7
2004-08-22 @ Drava Ptuj W 1-051.6 1447 1471 26.36% 29.28% 44.35%-0.44 +12.0 3
2004-08-25 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-150.7 1460 1490 36.99% 29.82% 33.20%+0.09 -10.5 3
2004-08-25 @ Domzale W 1-050.7 1490 1460 33.20% 29.82% 36.99%-0.09 +10.5 3
2004-08-28 Drava Ptuj D 1-159.0 1451 1459 40.21% 29.67% 30.11%+0.24 -0.5 6
2004-08-28 @ Ljubljana D 1-159.0 1459 1451 30.11% 29.67% 40.21%-0.24 +0.6 8
2004-08-29 Celje W 1-050.5 1544 1506 46.27% 29.02% 24.72%+0.54 +7.8 8
2004-08-29 @ Primorje L 0-150.5 1506 1544 24.72% 29.02% 46.27%-0.54 -7.8 6
2004-08-29 Anet Koper D 1-158.7 1449 1453 40.67% 29.64% 29.69%+0.26 -0.6 4
2004-08-29 @ Domzale D 1-158.7 1453 1449 29.69% 29.64% 40.67%-0.26 +0.6 3
2004-08-29 Gorica L 1-261.2 1519 1544 37.75% 29.79% 32.45%+0.12 -10.0 5
2004-08-29 @ Maribor W 2-161.2 1544 1519 32.45% 29.79% 37.75%-0.12 +10.0 11
2004-08-29 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 1-050.4 1459 1501 35.43% 29.84% 34.74%+0.02 +10.0 6
2004-08-29 @ Bela Krajina L 0-150.4 1501 1459 34.74% 29.84% 35.43%-0.02 -10.0 3
2004-08-29 Zagorje W 2-042.5 1504 1444 49.03% 28.53% 22.44%+0.68 +13.5 10
2004-08-29 @ NK Mura L 0-242.5 1444 1504 22.44% 28.53% 49.03%-0.68 -13.5 5
2004-09-10 Domzale D 1-158.6 1451 1449 41.50% 29.58% 28.92%+0.30 -0.7 7
2004-09-10 @ Ljubljana D 1-158.6 1449 1451 28.92% 29.58% 41.50%-0.30 +0.7 5
2004-09-11 NK Mura W 2-047.9 1554 1518 45.96% 29.07% 24.98%+0.52 +14.8 14
2004-09-11 @ Gorica L 0-247.9 1518 1554 24.98% 29.07% 45.96%-0.52 -14.8 10
2004-09-11 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 0-055.2 1459 1491 36.84% 29.82% 33.34%+0.08 -0.2 9
2004-09-11 @ Drava Ptuj D 0-055.2 1491 1459 33.34% 29.82% 36.84%-0.08 +0.2 4
2004-09-11 Primorje W 1-054.4 1454 1552 27.89% 29.47% 42.64%-0.36 +11.7 6
2004-09-11 @ Anet Koper L 0-154.4 1552 1454 42.64% 29.47% 27.89%+0.36 -11.7 8
2004-09-12 Bela Krajina D 1-158.6 1431 1469 35.82% 29.84% 34.34%+0.03 -0.1 6
2004-09-12 @ Zagorje D 1-158.6 1469 1431 34.34% 29.84% 35.82%-0.03 +0.1 7
2004-09-12 Maribor D 2-268.6 1498 1509 39.77% 29.70% 30.53%+0.22 -0.4 7
2004-09-12 @ Celje D 2-268.6 1509 1498 30.53% 29.70% 39.77%-0.22 +0.4 6
2004-09-15 Primorje W 2-159.5 1491 1540 34.28% 29.83% 35.89%-0.04 +9.7 7
2004-09-15 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 1-259.5 1540 1491 35.89% 29.83% 34.28%+0.04 -9.7 8
2004-09-18 Zagorje W 1-044.9 1500 1431 50.20% 28.29% 21.51%+0.75 +6.9 10
2004-09-18 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-144.9 1431 1500 21.51% 28.29% 50.20%-0.75 -6.9 6
2004-09-19 Celje D 0-057.2 1503 1498 41.95% 29.54% 28.51%+0.32 -0.8 11
2004-09-19 @ NK Mura D 0-057.2 1498 1503 28.51% 29.54% 41.95%-0.32 +0.8 8
2004-09-19 Drava Ptuj W 3-258.5 1449 1459 39.90% 29.69% 30.41%+0.22 +8.2 8
2004-09-19 @ Domzale L 2-358.5 1459 1449 30.41% 29.69% 39.90%-0.22 -8.1 9
2004-09-19 Anet Koper D 0-056.4 1509 1466 46.95% 28.91% 24.14%+0.57 -1.4 7
2004-09-19 @ Maribor D 0-056.4 1466 1509 24.14% 28.91% 46.95%-0.57 +1.4 7
2004-09-19 Ljubljana D 0-056.9 1530 1450 51.48% 28.00% 20.53%+0.82 -2.0 9
2004-09-19 @ Primorje D 0-056.9 1450 1530 20.53% 28.00% 51.48%-0.82 +2.0 8
2004-09-19 Gorica L 0-151.1 1469 1568 27.75% 29.46% 42.79%-0.36 -8.5 7
2004-09-19 @ Bela Krajina W 1-051.1 1568 1469 42.79% 29.46% 27.75%+0.36 +8.5 17
2004-09-22 Bela Krajina W 2-043.7 1499 1461 46.21% 29.03% 24.76%+0.54 +14.7 11
2004-09-22 @ Celje L 0-243.7 1461 1499 24.76% 29.03% 46.21%-0.54 -14.7 7
2004-09-22 Maribor L 1-256.1 1452 1508 33.41% 29.82% 36.77%-0.08 -9.2 8
2004-09-22 @ Ljubljana W 2-156.1 1508 1452 36.77% 29.82% 33.41%+0.08 +9.2 10
2004-09-22 NK Mura D 0-055.9 1467 1502 36.27% 29.83% 33.90%+0.05 -0.1 8
2004-09-22 @ Anet Koper D 0-055.9 1502 1467 33.90% 29.83% 36.27%-0.05 +0.1 12
2004-09-22 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-047.1 1577 1507 50.18% 28.29% 21.52%+0.75 +13.0 20
2004-09-22 @ Gorica L 0-247.1 1507 1577 21.52% 28.29% 50.18%-0.75 -13.0 10
2004-09-22 Primorje L 1-256.4 1458 1528 31.31% 29.75% 38.94%-0.18 -8.8 8
2004-09-22 @ Domzale W 2-156.4 1528 1458 38.94% 29.75% 31.31%+0.18 +8.8 12
2004-09-22 Zagorje W 2-150.8 1451 1424 44.83% 29.22% 25.95%+0.47 +7.6 12
2004-09-22 @ Drava Ptuj L 1-250.8 1424 1451 25.95% 29.22% 44.83%-0.47 -7.6 6
2004-09-26 Celje L 1-453.2 1494 1513 38.60% 29.76% 31.64%+0.16 -25.0 10
2004-09-26 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 4-153.2 1513 1494 31.64% 29.76% 38.60%-0.16 +25.0 14
2004-09-26 Domzale D 1-161.3 1517 1449 50.00% 28.33% 21.67%+0.74 -1.6 11
2004-09-26 @ Maribor D 1-161.3 1449 1517 21.67% 28.33% 50.00%-0.74 +1.6 9
2004-09-26 Drava Ptuj D 0-057.4 1537 1458 51.29% 28.04% 20.67%+0.81 -2.0 13
2004-09-26 @ Primorje D 0-057.4 1458 1537 20.67% 28.04% 51.29%-0.81 +2.0 13
2004-09-26 Anet Koper L 1-449.7 1446 1467 38.37% 29.77% 31.86%+0.15 -24.8 7
2004-09-26 @ Bela Krajina W 4-149.7 1467 1446 31.86% 29.77% 38.37%-0.15 +24.9 11
2004-09-26 Ljubljana L 1-259.9 1502 1443 48.97% 28.55% 22.49%+0.68 -12.3 12
2004-09-26 @ NK Mura W 2-159.9 1443 1502 22.49% 28.55% 48.97%-0.68 +12.3 11
2004-09-26 Gorica L 1-349.8 1416 1590 19.99% 27.82% 52.19%-0.86 -10.6 6
2004-09-26 @ Zagorje W 3-149.8 1590 1416 52.19% 27.82% 19.99%+0.86 +10.6 23
2004-10-02 Bela Krajina D 1-158.1 1455 1421 45.71% 29.10% 25.19%+0.51 -1.1 12
2004-10-02 @ Ljubljana D 1-158.1 1421 1455 25.19% 29.10% 45.71%-0.51 +1.1 8
2004-10-02 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 1-160.9 1492 1469 44.22% 29.30% 26.48%+0.44 -1.0 12
2004-10-02 @ Anet Koper D 1-160.9 1469 1492 26.48% 29.30% 44.22%-0.44 +1.0 11
2004-10-03 Maribor W 3-153.9 1535 1515 43.92% 29.34% 26.74%+0.42 +13.5 16
2004-10-03 @ Primorje L 1-353.9 1515 1535 26.74% 29.34% 43.92%-0.42 -13.5 11
2004-10-03 Gorica D 2-270.9 1460 1600 23.17% 28.71% 48.12%-0.64 +1.0 14
2004-10-03 @ Drava Ptuj D 2-270.9 1600 1460 48.12% 28.71% 23.17%+0.64 -1.1 24
2004-10-03 NK Mura D 0-054.9 1450 1490 35.63% 29.84% 34.53%+0.03 -0.1 10
2004-10-03 @ Domzale D 0-054.9 1490 1450 34.53% 29.84% 35.63%-0.03 +0.1 13
2004-10-03 Zagorje W 2-039.8 1538 1406 57.37% 26.27% 16.36%+1.16 +10.1 17
2004-10-03 @ Celje L 0-239.8 1406 1538 16.36% 26.27% 57.37%-1.16 -10.1 6
2004-10-15 Ljubljana W 4-146.6 1470 1454 43.42% 29.39% 27.19%+0.40 +19.3 14
2004-10-15 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 1-446.6 1454 1470 27.19% 29.39% 43.42%-0.40 -19.3 12
2004-10-16 Drava Ptuj W 2-153.3 1502 1461 46.53% 28.98% 24.49%+0.55 +7.3 14
2004-10-16 @ Maribor L 1-253.3 1461 1502 24.49% 28.98% 46.53%-0.55 -7.3 14
2004-10-17 Celje L 0-160.6 1599 1548 47.92% 28.74% 23.34%+0.63 -12.8 24
2004-10-17 @ Gorica W 1-060.6 1548 1599 23.34% 28.74% 47.92%-0.63 +12.8 20
2004-10-17 Domzale L 1-254.4 1423 1450 37.35% 29.81% 32.84%+0.10 -10.0 8
2004-10-17 @ Bela Krajina W 2-154.4 1450 1423 32.84% 29.81% 37.35%-0.10 +10.0 13
2004-10-17 Anet Koper W 1-050.0 1396 1491 28.21% 29.51% 42.28%-0.34 +11.6 9
2004-10-17 @ Zagorje L 0-150.0 1491 1396 42.28% 29.51% 28.21%+0.34 -11.6 12
2004-10-17 Primorje D 2-269.8 1490 1549 33.00% 29.81% 37.19%-0.10 +0.2 14
2004-10-17 @ NK Mura D 2-269.8 1549 1490 37.19% 29.81% 33.00%+0.10 -0.2 17
2004-10-20 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-349.2 1509 1490 43.81% 29.35% 26.84%+0.42 -32.6 14
2004-10-20 @ Maribor W 3-049.2 1490 1509 26.84% 29.35% 43.81%-0.42 +32.6 17
2004-10-23 Celje W 1-055.1 1454 1561 26.80% 29.34% 43.85%-0.42 +11.9 17
2004-10-23 @ Drava Ptuj L 0-155.1 1561 1454 43.85% 29.34% 26.80%+0.42 -11.9 20
2004-10-23 Domzale D 1-161.9 1522 1460 49.27% 28.49% 22.25%+0.70 -1.5 18
2004-10-23 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 1-161.9 1460 1522 22.25% 28.49% 49.27%-0.70 +1.5 14
2004-10-24 Ljubljana D 1-156.9 1407 1435 37.38% 29.81% 32.82%+0.11 -0.2 10
2004-10-24 @ Zagorje D 1-156.9 1435 1407 32.82% 29.81% 37.38%-0.11 +0.2 13
2004-10-24 Maribor L 2-364.3 1490 1476 43.13% 29.42% 27.45%+0.38 -10.5 14
2004-10-24 @ NK Mura W 3-264.3 1476 1490 27.45% 29.42% 43.13%-0.38 +10.5 17
2004-10-24 Primorje W 1-054.0 1413 1548 23.60% 28.80% 47.60%-0.61 +12.7 11
2004-10-24 @ Bela Krajina L 0-154.0 1548 1413 47.60% 28.80% 23.60%+0.61 -12.7 17
2004-10-30 Celje L 0-151.9 1479 1549 31.42% 29.75% 38.83%-0.17 -9.3 12
2004-10-30 @ Anet Koper W 1-051.9 1549 1479 38.83% 29.75% 31.42%+0.17 +9.3 23
2004-10-30 Gorica W 4-051.4 1435 1587 22.01% 28.43% 49.56%-0.71 +47.0 16
2004-10-30 @ Ljubljana L 0-451.4 1587 1435 49.56% 28.43% 22.01%+0.71 -47.0 24
2004-10-31 Bela Krajina W 5-040.0 1487 1425 49.21% 28.50% 22.29%+0.69 +31.4 20
2004-10-31 @ Maribor L 0-540.0 1425 1487 22.29% 28.50% 49.21%-0.69 -31.4 11
2004-10-31 Drava Ptuj W 3-150.3 1480 1466 43.08% 29.43% 27.49%+0.38 +13.8 17
2004-10-31 @ NK Mura L 1-350.3 1466 1480 27.49% 29.43% 43.08%-0.38 -13.8 17
2004-10-31 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-048.2 1536 1521 43.26% 29.41% 27.33%+0.39 +15.8 20
2004-10-31 @ Primorje L 0-248.2 1521 1536 27.33% 29.41% 43.26%-0.39 -15.8 18
2004-10-31 Zagorje D 0-052.9 1462 1407 48.40% 28.66% 22.95%+0.65 -1.6 15
2004-10-31 @ Domzale D 0-052.9 1407 1462 22.95% 28.66% 48.40%-0.65 +1.6 11
2004-11-03 Anet Koper W 2-044.4 1540 1470 50.23% 28.28% 21.49%+0.75 +13.0 27
2004-11-03 @ Gorica L 0-244.4 1470 1540 21.49% 28.28% 50.23%-0.75 -13.0 12
2004-11-06 Anet Koper W 3-258.3 1452 1457 40.61% 29.65% 29.74%+0.26 +8.0 20
2004-11-06 @ Drava Ptuj L 2-358.3 1457 1452 29.74% 29.65% 40.61%-0.26 -8.0 12
2004-11-07 Domzale W 2-043.7 1553 1460 52.91% 27.64% 19.46%+0.90 +11.9 30
2004-11-07 @ Gorica L 0-243.7 1460 1553 19.46% 27.64% 52.91%-0.90 -11.9 15
2004-11-07 Ljubljana W 3-043.5 1558 1482 51.04% 28.10% 20.86%+0.79 +18.4 26
2004-11-07 @ Celje L 0-343.5 1482 1558 20.86% 28.10% 51.04%-0.79 -18.4 16
2004-11-07 Maribor W 1-051.6 1505 1518 39.37% 29.72% 30.90%+0.20 +9.2 21
2004-11-07 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-151.6 1518 1505 30.90% 29.72% 39.37%-0.20 -9.2 20
2004-11-07 NK Mura D 2-264.4 1394 1494 27.64% 29.45% 42.91%-0.37 +0.6 12
2004-11-07 @ Bela Krajina D 2-264.4 1494 1394 42.91% 29.45% 27.64%+0.37 -0.6 18
2004-11-13 Anet Koper W 2-043.0 1463 1449 43.21% 29.42% 27.38%+0.39 +15.9 19
2004-11-13 @ Ljubljana L 0-243.0 1449 1463 27.38% 29.42% 43.21%-0.39 -15.9 12
2004-11-14 Celje W 2-052.7 1448 1577 24.36% 28.95% 46.69%-0.56 +23.6 18
2004-11-14 @ Domzale L 0-252.7 1577 1448 46.69% 28.95% 24.36%+0.56 -23.6 26
2004-11-14 Drava Ptuj L 2-357.3 1394 1460 31.99% 29.78% 38.24%-0.15 -8.5 12
2004-11-14 @ Bela Krajina W 3-257.3 1460 1394 38.24% 29.78% 31.99%+0.15 +8.5 23
2004-11-14 Gorica L 2-368.6 1552 1565 39.43% 29.72% 30.85%+0.20 -9.8 20
2004-11-14 @ Primorje W 3-268.6 1565 1552 30.85% 29.72% 39.43%-0.20 +9.8 33
2004-11-14 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 1-162.5 1493 1514 38.31% 29.77% 31.92%+0.15 -0.3 19
2004-11-14 @ NK Mura D 1-162.5 1514 1493 31.92% 29.77% 38.31%-0.15 +0.3 22
2004-11-14 Zagorje W 2-039.9 1509 1408 53.83% 27.38% 18.78%+0.95 +11.5 23
2004-11-14 @ Maribor L 0-239.9 1408 1509 18.78% 27.38% 53.83%-0.95 -11.6 11
2004-11-20 Domzale L 0-245.3 1433 1472 35.76% 29.84% 34.41%+0.03 -19.3 12
2004-11-20 @ Anet Koper W 2-045.3 1472 1433 34.41% 29.84% 35.76%-0.03 +19.3 21
2004-11-20 Ljubljana L 2-457.8 1469 1479 39.76% 29.70% 30.53%+0.22 -16.1 23
2004-11-20 @ Drava Ptuj W 4-257.8 1479 1469 30.53% 29.70% 39.76%-0.22 +16.1 22
2004-11-20 Maribor W 2-157.6 1574 1521 48.26% 28.68% 23.06%+0.64 +6.9 36
2004-11-20 @ Gorica L 1-257.6 1521 1574 23.06% 28.68% 48.26%-0.64 -6.9 23
2004-11-21 Bela Krajina W 2-038.4 1514 1386 56.93% 26.42% 16.65%+1.13 +10.3 25
2004-11-21 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-238.4 1386 1514 16.65% 26.42% 56.93%-1.13 -10.3 12
2004-11-21 NK Mura L 0-340.7 1397 1493 28.13% 29.50% 42.37%-0.34 -23.5 11
2004-11-21 @ Zagorje W 3-040.7 1493 1397 42.37% 29.50% 28.13%+0.34 +23.5 22
2004-11-21 Primorje W 2-049.7 1553 1542 42.78% 29.46% 27.76%+0.36 +16.0 29
2004-11-21 @ Celje L 0-249.7 1542 1553 27.76% 29.46% 42.78%-0.36 -16.0 20
2004-11-26 Drava Ptuj W 2-152.7 1525 1453 50.49% 28.22% 21.28%+0.76 +6.5 28
2004-11-26 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 1-252.7 1453 1525 21.28% 28.22% 50.49%-0.76 -6.5 23
2004-11-27 Celje W 2-052.1 1514 1569 33.37% 29.82% 36.80%-0.08 +19.7 26
2004-11-27 @ Maribor L 0-252.1 1569 1514 36.80% 29.82% 33.37%+0.08 -19.7 29
2004-11-27 Ljubljana W 6-147.5 1491 1495 40.62% 29.65% 29.73%+0.26 +32.7 24
2004-11-27 @ Domzale L 1-647.5 1495 1491 29.73% 29.65% 40.62%-0.26 -32.7 22
2004-11-27 Gorica L 1-260.7 1516 1581 32.09% 29.78% 38.13%-0.14 -8.9 22
2004-11-27 @ NK Mura W 2-160.7 1581 1516 38.13% 29.78% 32.09%+0.14 +8.9 39
2004-11-27 Zagorje W 1-042.7 1376 1373 41.54% 29.58% 28.89%+0.30 +8.8 15
2004-11-27 @ Bela Krajina L 0-142.7 1373 1376 28.89% 29.58% 41.54%-0.30 -8.8 11
2004-11-28 Anet Koper W 2-149.9 1526 1414 55.15% 27.00% 17.86%+1.03 +5.5 23
2004-11-28 @ Primorje L 1-249.9 1414 1526 17.86% 27.00% 55.15%-1.03 -5.5 12
2004-12-04 Primorje L 0-143.4 1365 1531 20.61% 28.02% 51.36%-0.81 -6.7 11
2004-12-04 @ Zagorje W 1-043.4 1531 1365 51.36% 28.02% 20.61%+0.81 +6.7 26
2005-03-05 Bela Krajina D 1-163.2 1590 1384 64.76% 23.24% 12.01%+1.65 -3.2 40
2005-03-05 @ Gorica D 1-163.2 1384 1590 12.01% 23.24% 64.76%-1.65 +3.2 16
2005-03-05 Maribor L 1-349.2 1408 1533 24.73% 29.02% 46.25%-0.54 -12.7 12
2005-03-05 @ Anet Koper W 3-149.2 1533 1408 46.25% 29.02% 24.73%+0.54 +12.7 29
2005-03-05 Primorje W 3-048.1 1463 1538 30.74% 29.71% 39.54%-0.21 +30.1 25
2005-03-05 @ Ljubljana L 0-348.1 1538 1463 39.54% 29.71% 30.74%+0.21 -30.1 26
2005-03-06 NK Mura W 2-047.2 1550 1507 46.82% 28.93% 24.25%+0.57 +14.4 32
2005-03-06 @ Celje L 0-247.2 1507 1550 24.25% 28.93% 46.82%-0.57 -14.4 22
2005-03-06 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 2-265.0 1358 1531 20.03% 27.84% 52.14%-0.85 +1.4 12
2005-03-06 @ Zagorje D 2-265.0 1531 1358 52.14% 27.84% 20.03%+0.85 -1.4 29
2005-03-12 Domzale W 3-154.7 1508 1524 39.00% 29.74% 31.25%+0.18 +15.2 29
2005-03-12 @ Primorje L 1-354.7 1524 1508 31.25% 29.74% 39.00%-0.18 -15.2 24
2005-03-12 Ljubljana L 0-253.6 1546 1493 48.17% 28.70% 23.13%+0.64 -24.2 29
2005-03-12 @ Maribor W 2-053.6 1493 1546 23.13% 28.70% 48.17%-0.64 +24.2 28
2005-03-12 Gorica L 2-366.8 1530 1587 33.16% 29.82% 37.03%-0.09 -8.7 29
2005-03-12 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 3-266.8 1587 1530 37.03% 29.82% 33.16%+0.09 +8.7 43
2005-03-13 Celje W 2-160.9 1388 1564 19.75% 27.74% 52.51%-0.88 +13.0 19
2005-03-13 @ Bela Krajina L 1-260.9 1564 1388 52.51% 27.74% 19.75%+0.88 -13.0 32
2005-03-13 Drava Ptuj L 0-144.0 1359 1446 29.24% 29.61% 41.15%-0.28 -8.8 12
2005-03-13 @ Zagorje W 1-044.0 1446 1359 41.15% 29.61% 29.24%+0.28 +8.8 26
2005-03-13 Anet Koper L 1-355.5 1493 1395 53.48% 27.48% 19.04%+0.93 -22.8 22
2005-03-13 @ NK Mura W 3-155.5 1395 1493 19.04% 27.48% 53.48%-0.93 +22.8 15
2005-03-16 Bela Krajina D 1-156.4 1418 1401 43.58% 29.37% 27.04%+0.40 -0.9 16
2005-03-16 @ Anet Koper D 1-156.4 1401 1418 27.04% 29.37% 43.58%-0.40 +0.9 20
2005-03-16 Maribor W 2-158.0 1509 1522 39.40% 29.72% 30.88%+0.20 +8.7 27
2005-03-16 @ Domzale L 1-258.0 1522 1509 30.88% 29.72% 39.40%-0.20 -8.7 29
2005-03-16 NK Mura L 1-454.8 1517 1470 47.41% 28.83% 23.76%+0.60 -29.3 28
2005-03-16 @ Ljubljana W 4-154.8 1470 1517 23.76% 28.83% 47.41%-0.60 +29.3 25
2005-03-16 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 4-151.5 1551 1521 45.22% 29.17% 25.61%+0.49 +18.4 35
2005-03-16 @ Celje L 1-451.5 1521 1551 25.61% 29.17% 45.22%-0.49 -18.4 29
2005-03-16 Primorje L 0-246.7 1455 1523 31.70% 29.76% 38.53%-0.16 -17.7 26
2005-03-16 @ Drava Ptuj W 2-046.7 1523 1455 38.53% 29.76% 31.70%+0.16 +17.7 32
2005-03-16 Zagorje W 6-036.1 1596 1350 68.37% 21.43% 10.20%+1.91 +16.8 46
2005-03-16 @ Gorica L 0-636.1 1350 1596 10.20% 21.43% 68.37%-1.91 -16.8 12
2005-03-19 Celje D 1-159.9 1334 1570 15.27% 25.66% 59.07%-1.27 +2.6 13
2005-03-19 @ Zagorje D 1-159.9 1570 1334 59.07% 25.66% 15.27%+1.27 -2.6 36
2005-03-19 Domzale W 2-048.1 1499 1517 38.73% 29.76% 31.52%+0.17 +17.6 28
2005-03-19 @ NK Mura L 0-248.1 1517 1499 31.52% 29.76% 38.73%-0.17 -17.6 27
2005-03-19 Drava Ptuj L 1-266.4 1613 1437 61.80% 24.57% 13.64%+1.44 -14.8 46
2005-03-19 @ Gorica W 2-166.4 1437 1613 13.64% 24.57% 61.80%-1.44 +14.8 29
2005-03-19 Anet Koper W 2-040.6 1503 1417 52.07% 27.85% 20.08%+0.85 +12.3 32
2005-03-19 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-240.6 1417 1503 20.08% 27.85% 52.07%-0.85 -12.3 16
2005-03-19 Ljubljana D 1-158.3 1402 1488 29.31% 29.61% 41.07%-0.28 +0.6 21
2005-03-19 @ Bela Krajina D 1-158.3 1488 1402 41.07% 29.61% 29.31%+0.28 -0.6 29
2005-03-19 Primorje W 1-053.3 1513 1541 37.38% 29.81% 32.81%+0.11 +9.6 32
2005-03-19 @ Maribor L 0-153.3 1541 1513 32.81% 29.81% 37.38%-0.11 -9.6 32
2005-03-22 Domzale L 0-150.1 1452 1500 34.52% 29.84% 35.64%-0.03 -10.0 29
2005-03-22 @ Drava Ptuj W 1-050.1 1500 1452 35.64% 29.84% 34.52%+0.03 +10.0 30
2005-04-02 Bela Krajina W 3-145.6 1510 1402 54.62% 27.16% 18.23%+1.00 +9.7 33
2005-04-02 @ Domzale L 1-345.6 1402 1510 18.23% 27.16% 54.62%-1.00 -9.7 21
2005-04-02 Maribor W 2-048.8 1442 1523 30.04% 29.67% 40.29%-0.24 +21.0 32
2005-04-02 @ Drava Ptuj L 0-248.8 1523 1442 40.29% 29.67% 30.04%+0.24 -21.0 32
2005-04-02 NK Mura W 3-154.1 1531 1517 43.13% 29.43% 27.45%+0.38 +13.8 35
2005-04-02 @ Primorje L 1-354.1 1517 1531 27.45% 29.43% 43.13%-0.38 -13.8 28
2005-04-02 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) L 0-152.8 1487 1515 37.36% 29.81% 32.84%+0.11 -10.5 29
2005-04-02 @ Ljubljana W 1-052.8 1515 1487 32.84% 29.81% 37.36%-0.11 +10.6 35
2005-04-02 Zagorje W 3-034.8 1405 1336 50.10% 28.31% 21.59%+0.74 +19.0 19
2005-04-02 @ Anet Koper L 0-334.8 1336 1405 21.59% 28.31% 50.10%-0.74 -19.0 13
2005-04-03 Gorica D 1-167.7 1567 1598 36.92% 29.82% 33.27%+0.08 -0.2 37
2005-04-03 @ Celje D 1-167.7 1598 1567 33.27% 29.82% 36.92%-0.08 +0.2 47

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2005-04-09 Drava Ptuj D 0-060.4 1598 1463 57.61% 26.19% 16.20%+1.18 -2.8 1
2005-04-09 @ Gorica D 0-060.4 1463 1598 16.20% 26.19% 57.61%-1.18 +2.8 1
2005-04-09 Anet Koper L 0-152.0 1477 1424 48.11% 28.71% 23.18%+0.64 -12.8 0
2005-04-09 @ Ljubljana W 1-052.0 1424 1477 23.18% 28.71% 48.11%-0.64 +12.8 3
2005-04-09 Zagorje W 3-032.6 1502 1317 62.70% 24.17% 13.12%+1.51 +11.7 3
2005-04-09 @ Maribor L 0-332.6 1317 1502 13.12% 24.17% 62.70%-1.51 -11.7 0
2005-04-10 Bela Krajina D 0-054.2 1503 1392 54.98% 27.05% 17.97%+1.02 -2.4 1
2005-04-10 @ NK Mura D 0-054.2 1392 1503 17.97% 27.05% 54.98%-1.02 +2.4 1
2005-04-10 Domzale W 3-154.1 1567 1519 47.44% 28.83% 23.73%+0.60 +12.3 3
2005-04-10 @ Celje L 1-354.1 1519 1567 23.73% 28.83% 47.44%-0.60 -12.3 0
2005-04-13 Bela Krajina L 1-344.7 1306 1395 28.92% 29.58% 41.50%-0.30 -14.3 0
2005-04-13 @ Zagorje W 3-144.7 1395 1306 41.50% 29.58% 28.92%+0.30 +14.3 4
2005-04-13 Ljubljana W 3-042.1 1513 1464 47.73% 28.78% 23.49%+0.62 +20.4 6
2005-04-13 @ Maribor L 0-342.1 1464 1513 23.49% 28.78% 47.73%-0.62 -20.4 0
2005-04-13 NK Mura L 0-245.4 1437 1501 32.25% 29.79% 37.96%-0.13 -17.9 3
2005-04-13 @ Anet Koper W 2-045.4 1501 1437 37.96% 29.79% 32.25%+0.13 +17.9 4
2005-04-13 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 4-152.2 1466 1525 32.85% 29.81% 37.35%-0.10 +24.4 4
2005-04-13 @ Drava Ptuj L 1-452.2 1525 1466 37.35% 29.81% 32.85%+0.10 -24.4 0
2005-04-13 Primorje D 1-164.1 1507 1545 35.94% 29.83% 34.22%+0.04 -0.1 1
2005-04-13 @ Domzale D 1-164.1 1545 1507 34.22% 29.83% 35.94%-0.04 +0.1 1
2005-04-14 Celje W 2-051.8 1595 1579 43.40% 29.40% 27.20%+0.39 +15.8 4
2005-04-14 @ Gorica L 0-251.8 1579 1595 27.20% 29.40% 43.40%-0.39 -15.8 3
2005-04-16 Maribor L 1-357.8 1519 1534 39.12% 29.74% 31.14%+0.19 -17.8 4
2005-04-16 @ NK Mura W 3-157.8 1534 1519 31.14% 29.74% 39.12%-0.19 +17.8 9
2005-04-16 Zagorje W 2-143.2 1443 1291 59.45% 25.51% 15.03%+1.29 +4.6 3
2005-04-16 @ Ljubljana L 1-243.2 1291 1443 15.03% 25.51% 59.45%-1.29 -4.7 0
2005-04-17 Domzale L 1-356.5 1501 1507 40.40% 29.66% 29.94%+0.25 -18.3 0
2005-04-17 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 3-156.5 1507 1501 29.94% 29.66% 40.40%-0.25 +18.3 4
2005-04-17 Drava Ptuj L 1-264.3 1563 1490 50.59% 28.20% 21.21%+0.77 -12.6 3
2005-04-17 @ Celje W 2-164.3 1490 1563 21.21% 28.20% 50.59%-0.77 +12.6 7
2005-04-17 Anet Koper W 1-044.9 1409 1419 39.88% 29.69% 30.42%+0.22 +9.1 7
2005-04-17 @ Bela Krajina L 0-144.9 1419 1409 30.42% 29.69% 39.88%-0.22 -9.1 3
2005-04-17 Gorica L 0-252.9 1545 1611 31.95% 29.78% 38.27%-0.15 -17.8 1
2005-04-17 @ Primorje W 2-052.9 1611 1545 38.27% 29.78% 31.95%+0.15 +17.8 7
2005-04-20 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 0-057.7 1527 1483 47.05% 28.89% 24.05%+0.58 -1.4 2
2005-04-20 @ Primorje D 0-057.7 1483 1527 24.05% 28.89% 47.05%-0.58 +1.5 1
2005-04-23 Bela Krajina W 2-040.7 1552 1418 57.46% 26.24% 16.30%+1.17 +10.1 12
2005-04-23 @ Maribor L 0-240.7 1418 1552 16.30% 26.24% 57.46%-1.17 -10.1 7
2005-04-23 Domzale L 0-154.0 1503 1525 38.11% 29.78% 32.11%+0.14 -10.7 7
2005-04-23 @ Drava Ptuj W 1-054.0 1525 1503 32.11% 29.78% 38.11%-0.14 +10.7 7
2005-04-23 NK Mura D 0-055.2 1448 1501 33.79% 29.83% 36.38%-0.06 +0.2 4
2005-04-23 @ Ljubljana D 0-055.2 1501 1448 36.38% 29.83% 33.79%+0.06 -0.1 5
2005-04-24 Anet Koper L 2-446.9 1287 1410 24.95% 29.06% 45.99%-0.53 -11.4 0
2005-04-24 @ Zagorje W 4-246.9 1410 1287 45.99% 29.06% 24.95%+0.53 +11.4 6
2005-04-24 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-045.5 1629 1484 58.65% 25.82% 15.54%+1.24 +9.6 10
2005-04-24 @ Gorica L 0-245.5 1484 1629 15.54% 25.82% 58.65%-1.24 -9.6 1
2005-04-24 Primorje W 1-051.9 1551 1526 44.56% 29.26% 26.18%+0.45 +8.1 6
2005-04-24 @ Celje L 0-151.9 1526 1551 26.18% 29.26% 44.56%-0.45 -8.1 2
2005-04-30 Ljubljana W 3-041.7 1408 1448 35.61% 29.84% 34.56%+0.02 +27.3 10
2005-04-30 @ Bela Krajina L 0-341.7 1448 1408 34.56% 29.84% 35.61%-0.02 -27.3 4
2005-04-30 Maribor W 3-157.6 1421 1562 23.13% 28.70% 48.18%-0.64 +21.0 9
2005-04-30 @ Anet Koper L 1-357.6 1562 1421 48.18% 28.70% 23.13%+0.64 -21.0 12
2005-04-30 Zagorje W 2-141.8 1501 1275 66.60% 22.34% 11.06%+1.78 +3.3 8
2005-04-30 @ NK Mura L 1-241.8 1275 1501 11.06% 22.34% 66.60%-1.78 -3.3 0
2005-05-01 Celje L 0-647.7 1475 1559 29.59% 29.64% 40.77%-0.27 -46.7 1
2005-05-01 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 6-047.7 1559 1475 40.77% 29.64% 29.59%+0.27 +46.7 9
2005-05-01 Drava Ptuj D 1-162.7 1518 1492 44.61% 29.25% 26.14%+0.46 -1.0 3
2005-05-01 @ Primorje D 1-162.7 1492 1518 26.14% 29.25% 44.61%-0.46 +1.0 8
2005-05-01 Gorica D 1-168.0 1536 1638 27.34% 29.41% 43.25%-0.39 +0.9 8
2005-05-01 @ Domzale D 1-168.0 1638 1536 43.25% 29.41% 27.34%+0.39 -0.9 11
2005-05-07 Celje W 1-057.9 1537 1605 31.62% 29.76% 38.62%-0.16 +10.8 11
2005-05-07 @ Domzale L 0-157.9 1605 1537 38.62% 29.76% 31.62%+0.16 -10.8 9
2005-05-07 Ljubljana D 1-157.6 1442 1421 44.08% 29.32% 26.60%+0.43 -1.0 10
2005-05-07 @ Anet Koper D 1-157.6 1421 1442 26.60% 29.32% 44.08%-0.43 +1.0 5
2005-05-07 Gorica D 0-062.0 1493 1638 22.74% 28.61% 48.65%-0.66 +1.6 9
2005-05-07 @ Drava Ptuj D 0-062.0 1638 1493 48.65% 28.61% 22.74%+0.66 -1.6 12
2005-05-08 Maribor L 0-234.3 1272 1541 13.28% 24.29% 62.43%-1.49 -8.2 0
2005-05-08 @ Zagorje W 2-034.3 1541 1272 62.43% 24.29% 13.28%+1.49 +8.2 15
2005-05-08 NK Mura D 1-160.0 1436 1504 31.64% 29.76% 38.60%-0.16 +0.4 11
2005-05-08 @ Bela Krajina D 1-160.0 1504 1436 38.60% 29.76% 31.64%+0.16 -0.4 9
2005-05-08 Primorje L 2-359.3 1428 1516 29.02% 29.59% 41.39%-0.30 -7.9 1
2005-05-08 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 3-259.3 1516 1428 41.39% 29.59% 29.02%+0.30 +7.9 6
2005-05-14 Anet Koper W 3-256.9 1504 1441 49.32% 28.47% 22.20%+0.70 +6.4 12
2005-05-14 @ NK Mura L 2-356.9 1441 1504 22.20% 28.47% 49.32%-0.70 -6.3 10
2005-05-14 Maribor W 1-054.1 1422 1549 24.53% 28.98% 46.48%-0.55 +12.5 8
2005-05-14 @ Ljubljana L 0-154.1 1549 1422 46.48% 28.98% 24.53%+0.55 -12.5 15
2005-05-14 Gorica L 0-159.1 1595 1636 35.43% 29.84% 34.73%+0.02 -10.2 9
2005-05-14 @ Celje W 1-059.1 1636 1595 34.73% 29.84% 35.43%-0.02 +10.2 15
2005-05-15 Domzale L 0-155.5 1524 1548 37.98% 29.79% 32.24%+0.13 -10.7 6
2005-05-15 @ Primorje W 1-055.5 1548 1524 32.24% 29.79% 37.98%-0.13 +10.7 14
2005-05-15 Drava Ptuj L 0-244.2 1420 1495 30.79% 29.72% 39.49%-0.21 -17.3 1
2005-05-15 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-044.2 1495 1420 39.49% 29.72% 30.79%+0.21 +17.3 12
2005-05-15 Zagorje D 0-050.5 1436 1264 61.50% 24.69% 13.81%+1.43 -3.2 12
2005-05-15 @ Bela Krajina D 0-050.5 1264 1436 13.81% 24.69% 61.50%-1.43 +3.2 1
2005-05-21 Bela Krajina W 1-045.5 1435 1433 41.51% 29.58% 28.91%+0.30 +8.8 13
2005-05-21 @ Anet Koper L 0-145.5 1433 1435 28.91% 29.58% 41.51%-0.30 -8.8 12
2005-05-21 Celje L 0-154.3 1512 1584 31.12% 29.74% 39.14%-0.19 -9.3 12
2005-05-21 @ Drava Ptuj W 1-054.3 1584 1512 39.14% 29.74% 31.12%+0.19 +9.3 12
2005-05-21 NK Mura W 2-047.4 1536 1510 44.76% 29.23% 26.00%+0.46 +15.2 18
2005-05-21 @ Maribor L 0-247.4 1510 1536 26.00% 29.23% 44.76%-0.46 -15.2 12
2005-05-21 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 3-037.9 1558 1403 59.81% 25.37% 14.81%+1.32 +13.3 17
2005-05-21 @ Domzale L 0-337.9 1403 1558 14.81% 25.37% 59.81%-1.32 -13.3 1
2005-05-21 Primorje D 1-168.6 1646 1514 57.36% 26.28% 16.37%+1.16 -2.4 16
2005-05-21 @ Gorica D 1-168.6 1514 1646 16.37% 26.28% 57.36%-1.16 +2.4 7
2005-05-22 Ljubljana L 1-341.7 1267 1434 20.54% 28.00% 51.46%-0.82 -10.8 1
2005-05-22 @ Zagorje W 3-141.7 1434 1267 51.46% 28.00% 20.54%+0.82 +10.9 11
2005-05-25 Celje W 2-053.9 1516 1594 30.42% 29.69% 39.88%-0.22 +20.9 10
2005-05-25 @ Primorje L 0-253.9 1594 1516 39.88% 29.69% 30.42%+0.22 -20.9 12
2005-05-25 Drava Ptuj D 3-375.1 1572 1503 50.10% 28.31% 21.59%+0.74 -1.0 18
2005-05-25 @ Domzale D 3-375.1 1503 1572 21.59% 28.31% 50.10%-0.74 +1.0 13
2005-05-25 Ljubljana D 1-160.3 1495 1445 47.73% 28.78% 23.49%+0.62 -1.4 13
2005-05-25 @ NK Mura D 1-160.3 1445 1495 23.49% 28.78% 47.73%-0.62 +1.4 12
2005-05-25 Maribor W 3-049.0 1424 1552 24.46% 28.97% 46.57%-0.55 +34.2 15
2005-05-25 @ Bela Krajina L 0-349.0 1552 1424 46.57% 28.97% 24.46%+0.55 -34.2 18
2005-05-25 Gorica D 1-164.9 1389 1644 14.13% 24.92% 60.95%-1.39 +2.8 2
2005-05-25 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) D 1-164.9 1644 1389 60.95% 24.92% 14.13%+1.39 -2.8 17
2005-05-25 Zagorje W 5-030.9 1444 1256 63.02% 24.04% 12.95%+1.53 +18.6 16
2005-05-25 @ Anet Koper L 0-530.9 1256 1444 12.95% 24.04% 63.02%-1.53 -18.6 1
2005-05-28 Bela Krajina D 0-053.7 1447 1458 39.61% 29.71% 30.68%+0.21 -0.5 13
2005-05-28 @ Ljubljana D 0-053.7 1458 1447 30.68% 29.71% 39.61%-0.21 +0.5 16
2005-05-28 Domzale D 0-064.1 1641 1571 50.26% 28.28% 21.47%+0.75 -1.8 18
2005-05-28 @ Gorica D 0-064.1 1571 1641 21.47% 28.28% 50.26%-0.75 +1.8 19
2005-05-28 Anet Koper D 1-161.8 1518 1462 48.44% 28.65% 22.91%+0.65 -1.5 19
2005-05-28 @ Maribor D 1-161.8 1462 1518 22.91% 28.65% 48.44%-0.65 +1.5 17
2005-05-28 NK Mura L 0-233.1 1237 1493 14.02% 24.84% 61.13%-1.40 -8.7 1
2005-05-28 @ Zagorje W 2-033.1 1493 1237 61.13% 24.84% 14.02%+1.40 +8.7 16
2005-05-28 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) W 2-148.7 1573 1392 62.33% 24.34% 13.33%+1.48 +4.1 15
2005-05-28 @ Celje L 1-248.7 1392 1573 13.33% 24.34% 62.33%-1.48 -4.1 2
2005-05-28 Primorje D 1-163.7 1504 1537 36.60% 29.82% 33.58%+0.07 -0.2 14
2005-05-28 @ Drava Ptuj D 1-163.7 1537 1504 33.58% 29.82% 36.60%-0.07 +0.2 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2005-03-19 13.64% Drava Ptuj 1437 2 @ Gorica 1613 1
2 2005-03-13 19.04% Anet Koper 1395 3 @ NK Mura 1493 1
3 2005-03-13 19.75% @ Bela Krajina 1388 2 Celje 1564 1
4 2005-04-17 21.21% Drava Ptuj 1490 2 @ Celje 1563 1
5 2004-08-20 21.49% Domzale 1448 3 @ Celje 1518 2
6 2004-10-30 22.01% @ Ljubljana 1435 4 Gorica 1587 0
7 2004-09-26 22.49% Ljubljana 1443 2 @ NK Mura 1502 1
8 2005-03-12 23.13% Ljubljana 1493 2 @ Maribor 1546 0
9 2005-04-30 23.13% @ Anet Koper 1421 3 Maribor 1562 1
10 2005-04-09 23.18% Anet Koper 1424 1 @ Ljubljana 1477 0
11 2004-10-17 23.34% Celje 1548 1 @ Gorica 1599 0
12 2004-10-24 23.60% @ Bela Krajina 1413 1 Primorje 1548 0
13 2005-03-16 23.76% NK Mura 1470 4 @ Ljubljana 1517 1
14 2004-07-30 23.78% Drava Ptuj 1439 1 @ Celje 1486 0
15 2004-11-14 24.36% @ Domzale 1448 2 Celje 1577 0
16 2005-05-25 24.46% @ Bela Krajina 1424 3 Maribor 1552 0
17 2005-05-14 24.53% @ Ljubljana 1422 1 Maribor 1549 0
18 2004-08-21 25.39% NK Mura 1481 2 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1513 0
19 2004-08-22 26.36% Bela Krajina 1447 1 @ Drava Ptuj 1471 0
20 2004-10-23 26.80% @ Drava Ptuj 1454 1 Celje 1561 0
21 2004-10-20 26.84% Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1490 3 @ Maribor 1509 0
22 2004-10-24 27.45% Maribor 1476 3 @ NK Mura 1490 2
23 2004-09-11 27.89% @ Anet Koper 1454 1 Primorje 1552 0
24 2004-10-17 28.21% @ Zagorje 1396 1 Anet Koper 1491 0
25 2005-04-17 29.94% Domzale 1507 3 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1501 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2004-10-30 46.99 @ Ljubljana 4 1435 22.01% Gorica 0 1587 49.56% 28.43%
2 2005-05-01 46.74 Celje 6 1559 40.77% @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 0 1475 29.59% 29.64%
3 2005-05-25 34.20 @ Bela Krajina 3 1424 24.46% Maribor 0 1552 46.57% 28.97%
4 2004-11-27 32.70 @ Domzale 6 1491 40.62% Ljubljana 1 1495 29.73% 29.65%
5 2004-10-20 32.59 Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 3 1490 26.84% @ Maribor 0 1509 43.81% 29.35%
6 2004-10-31 31.43 @ Maribor 5 1487 49.21% Bela Krajina 0 1425 22.29% 28.50%
7 2004-08-01 30.16 @ Primorje 4 1515 43.12% Bela Krajina 0 1501 27.45% 29.43%
8 2005-03-05 30.14 @ Ljubljana 3 1463 30.74% Primorje 0 1538 39.54% 29.71%
9 2005-03-16 29.26 NK Mura 4 1470 23.76% @ Ljubljana 1 1517 47.41% 28.83%
10 2005-04-30 27.35 @ Bela Krajina 3 1408 35.61% Ljubljana 0 1448 34.56% 29.84%
11 2004-09-26 24.97 Celje 4 1513 31.64% @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1 1494 38.60% 29.76%
12 2004-09-26 24.85 Anet Koper 4 1467 31.86% @ Bela Krajina 1 1446 38.37% 29.77%
13 2004-08-06 24.63 @ Celje 3 1473 40.43% Anet Koper 0 1479 29.91% 29.66%
14 2005-04-13 24.37 @ Drava Ptuj 4 1466 32.85% Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1 1525 37.35% 29.81%
15 2005-03-12 24.20 Ljubljana 2 1493 23.13% @ Maribor 0 1546 48.17% 28.70%
16 2004-11-14 23.60 @ Domzale 2 1448 24.36% Celje 0 1577 46.69% 28.95%
17 2004-11-21 23.52 NK Mura 3 1493 42.37% @ Zagorje 0 1397 28.13% 29.50%
18 2004-08-21 23.11 NK Mura 2 1481 25.39% @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 0 1513 45.47% 29.14%
19 2005-03-13 22.83 Anet Koper 3 1395 19.04% @ NK Mura 1 1493 53.48% 27.48%
20 2005-04-02 21.04 @ Drava Ptuj 2 1442 30.04% Maribor 0 1523 40.29% 29.67%
21 2005-04-30 20.95 @ Anet Koper 3 1421 23.13% Maribor 1 1562 48.18% 28.70%
22 2005-05-25 20.88 @ Primorje 2 1516 30.42% Celje 0 1594 39.88% 29.69%
23 2004-07-31 20.45 Gorica 2 1517 31.49% @ Anet Koper 0 1499 38.76% 29.75%
24 2005-04-13 20.40 @ Maribor 3 1513 47.73% Ljubljana 0 1464 23.49% 28.78%
25 2004-08-14 19.94 Celje 2 1498 32.74% @ Ljubljana 0 1471 37.45% 29.80%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-05-25 75.1 @ Domzale 3 1572 50.10% Drava Ptuj 3 1503 21.59% 28.31%
2 2004-10-03 70.9 @ Drava Ptuj 2 1460 23.17% Gorica 2 1600 48.12% 28.71%
3 2004-10-17 69.8 @ NK Mura 2 1490 33.00% Primorje 2 1549 37.19% 29.81%
4 2004-09-12 68.6 @ Celje 2 1498 39.77% Maribor 2 1509 30.53% 29.70%
5 2004-11-14 68.6 Gorica 3 1565 30.85% @ Primorje 2 1552 39.43% 29.72%
6 2005-05-21 68.6 @ Gorica 1 1646 57.36% Primorje 1 1514 16.37% 26.28%
7 2005-05-01 68.0 @ Domzale 1 1536 27.34% Gorica 1 1638 43.25% 29.41%
8 2005-04-03 67.7 @ Celje 1 1567 36.92% Gorica 1 1598 33.27% 29.82%
9 2005-03-12 66.8 Gorica 3 1587 37.03% @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 2 1530 33.16% 29.82%
10 2005-03-19 66.4 Drava Ptuj 2 1437 13.64% @ Gorica 1 1613 61.80% 24.57%
11 2004-08-20 66.0 Domzale 3 1448 21.49% @ Celje 2 1518 50.23% 28.28%
12 2005-03-06 65.0 @ Zagorje 2 1358 20.03% Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 2 1531 52.14% 27.84%
13 2004-08-21 64.9 @ Anet Koper 2 1454 41.63% Ljubljana 2 1451 28.80% 29.57%
14 2005-05-25 64.9 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1 1389 14.13% Gorica 1 1644 60.95% 24.92%
15 2004-11-07 64.4 @ Bela Krajina 2 1394 27.64% NK Mura 2 1494 42.91% 29.45%
16 2004-10-24 64.3 Maribor 3 1476 27.45% @ NK Mura 2 1490 43.13% 29.42%
17 2005-04-17 64.3 Drava Ptuj 2 1490 21.21% @ Celje 1 1563 50.59% 28.20%
18 2005-04-13 64.1 @ Domzale 1 1507 35.94% Primorje 1 1545 34.22% 29.83%
19 2005-05-28 64.1 @ Gorica 0 1641 50.26% Domzale 0 1571 21.47% 28.28%
20 2005-05-28 63.7 @ Drava Ptuj 1 1504 36.60% Primorje 1 1537 33.58% 29.82%
21 2005-03-05 63.2 @ Gorica 1 1590 64.76% Bela Krajina 1 1384 12.01% 23.24%
22 2005-05-01 62.7 @ Primorje 1 1518 44.61% Drava Ptuj 1 1492 26.14% 29.25%
23 2004-11-14 62.5 @ NK Mura 1 1493 38.31% Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 1 1514 31.92% 29.77%
24 2004-08-01 62.2 @ Maribor 1 1510 44.69% NK Mura 1 1485 26.07% 29.24%
25 2005-05-07 62.0 @ Drava Ptuj 0 1493 22.74% Gorica 0 1638 48.65% 28.61%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2005-05-25 30.9 @ Anet Koper 5 1444 63.02% Zagorje 0 1256 12.95% 24.04%
2 2005-04-09 32.6 @ Maribor 3 1502 62.70% Zagorje 0 1317 13.12% 24.17%
3 2005-05-28 33.1 NK Mura 2 1493 61.13% @ Zagorje 0 1237 14.02% 24.84%
4 2005-05-08 34.3 Maribor 2 1541 62.43% @ Zagorje 0 1272 13.28% 24.29%
5 2005-04-02 34.8 @ Anet Koper 3 1405 50.10% Zagorje 0 1336 21.59% 28.31%
6 2005-03-16 36.1 @ Gorica 6 1596 68.37% Zagorje 0 1350 10.20% 21.43%
7 2005-05-21 37.9 @ Domzale 3 1558 59.81% Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 0 1403 14.81% 25.37%
8 2004-11-21 38.4 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 2 1514 56.93% Bela Krajina 0 1386 16.65% 26.42%
9 2004-10-03 39.8 @ Celje 2 1538 57.37% Zagorje 0 1406 16.36% 26.27%
10 2004-11-14 39.9 @ Maribor 2 1509 53.83% Zagorje 0 1408 18.78% 27.38%
11 2004-10-31 40.0 @ Maribor 5 1487 49.21% Bela Krajina 0 1425 22.29% 28.50%
12 2005-03-19 40.6 @ Olimpija Ljubljana (1st) 2 1503 52.07% Anet Koper 0 1417 20.08% 27.85%
13 2004-11-21 40.7 NK Mura 3 1493 42.37% @ Zagorje 0 1397 28.13% 29.50%
14 2005-04-23 40.7 @ Maribor 2 1552 57.46% Bela Krajina 0 1418 16.30% 26.24%
15 2005-04-30 41.7 @ Bela Krajina 3 1408 35.61% Ljubljana 0 1448 34.56% 29.84%
16 2005-05-22 41.7 Ljubljana 3 1434 51.46% @ Zagorje 1 1267 20.54% 28.00%
17 2005-04-30 41.8 @ NK Mura 2 1501 66.60% Zagorje 1 1275 11.06% 22.34%
18 2005-04-13 42.1 @ Maribor 3 1513 47.73% Ljubljana 0 1464 23.49% 28.78%
19 2004-08-29 42.5 @ NK Mura 2 1504 49.03% Zagorje 0 1444 22.44% 28.53%
20 2004-11-27 42.7 @ Bela Krajina 1 1376 41.54% Zagorje 0 1373 28.89% 29.58%
21 2004-11-13 43.0 @ Ljubljana 2 1463 43.21% Anet Koper 0 1449 27.38% 29.42%
22 2004-08-01 43.1 @ Ljubljana 2 1452 41.66% Zagorje 0 1449 28.78% 29.57%
23 2005-04-16 43.2 @ Ljubljana 2 1443 59.45% Zagorje 1 1291 15.03% 25.51%
24 2004-08-06 43.4 @ Celje 3 1473 40.43% Anet Koper 0 1479 29.91% 29.66%
25 2004-12-04 43.4 Primorje 1 1531 51.36% @ Zagorje 0 1365 20.61% 28.02%