1932-33 Segunda División Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Real Oviedo

8.50 points above expected

27 points · 18.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Castellon

7.04 points below expected

4 points · 11.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Real Oviedo	18	12	3	3	27	58	26	+32	18.5	+8.50
2	Atletico Madrid	18	10	4	4	24	40	35	+5	18.5	+5.51
3	Real Union	18	9	2	7	20	51	36	+15	22.4	-2.42
4	Deportivo La Coruna	18	8	4	6	20	38	38	0	19.3	+0.71
5	Real Murcia	18	9	2	7	20	33	41	-8	17.0	+2.99
6	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	49	40	+9	19.1	-1.09
7	Osasuna	18	7	3	8	17	45	47	-2	18.8	-1.81
8	Celta Vigo	18	8	1	9	17	36	38	-2	17.6	-0.60
9	Sevilla	18	5	3	10	13	29	38	-9	17.8	-4.75
10	Castellon	18	2	0	16	4	14	54	-40	11.0	-7.04

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Real Union	1599	20	22.42	-2.42	27.0%	11	16	20	22	25	28	31
Atletico Madrid	1497	24	18.49	+5.51	97.0%	10	13	17	18	20	24	26
Real Oviedo	1494	27	18.50	+8.50	100.0%	10	13	17	18	21	24	26
Sporting Gijon	1471	18	19.09	-1.09	40.0%	12	14	17	19	21	24	27
Osasuna	1465	17	18.81	-1.81	30.0%	10	12	17	19	21	24	25
Deportivo La Coruna	1463	20	19.29	+0.71	67.0%	12	14	17	20	21	24	26
Real Murcia	1463	20	17.01	+2.99	89.0%	11	12	15	17	19	22	26
Sevilla	1458	13	17.75	-4.75	10.0%	9	12	16	18	20	22	26
Castellon	1444	4	11.04	-7.04	1.0%	3	6	9	11	13	16	19
Celta Vigo	1423	17	17.60	-0.60	47.0%	9	12	15	18	20	23	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	AM	CAS	CV	DLC	OSA	RM	RO	RU	SEV	SG
Atletico Madrid	—	2-0-0 3.05	2-0-0 3.21	0-2-0 3.03	0-1-1 3.00	1-0-1 3.02	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 2.29	1-1-0 2.98	2-0-0 2.96
Castellon	0-0-2 2.69	—	0-0-2 3.03	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 2.77	0-0-2 2.83	0-0-2 2.81	1-0-1 2.07	0-0-2 2.84	0-0-2 2.75
Celta Vigo	0-0-2 2.54	2-0-0 2.71	—	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.65	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.59	1-0-1 1.91	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.63
Deportivo La Coruna	0-2-0 2.71	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 3.07	—	1-0-1 2.85	0-1-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.78	1-0-1 2.11	1-1-0 2.86	1-0-1 2.82
Osasuna	1-1-0 2.74	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.10	1-0-1 2.90	—	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.17	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.86
Real Murcia	1-0-1 2.72	2-0-0 2.92	1-0-1 3.07	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 2.85	—	0-0-2 2.81	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 2.81
Real Oviedo	1-0-1 2.83	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 3.15	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 2.94	2-0-0 2.94	—	1-1-0 2.24	2-0-0 2.96	1-1-0 2.91
Real Union	1-0-1 3.47	1-0-1 3.69	1-0-1 3.86	1-0-1 3.65	1-1-0 3.59	1-0-1 3.61	0-1-1 3.51	—	2-0-0 3.59	1-0-1 3.59
Sevilla	0-1-1 2.76	2-0-0 2.90	0-1-1 3.08	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.78	0-0-2 2.17	—	1-0-1 2.84
Sporting Gijon	0-0-2 2.78	2-0-0 2.99	2-0-0 3.12	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 2.92	0-1-1 2.83	1-0-1 2.17	1-0-1 2.91	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	2.78%	1.67%	1.67%	13.33%
1	2.22%	4.44%	6.11%	5.00%	2.22%	8.89%	28.89%
2	2.78%	6.11%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	1.67%	18.33%
3	2.78%	5.00%	2.22%	3.33%	1.67%	—	15.00%
4	1.67%	2.22%	2.22%	1.67%	—	—	7.78%
5+	1.67%	8.89%	1.67%	—	—	4.44%	16.67%
Total	13.33%	28.89%	18.33%	15.00%	7.78%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.14
Mean allowed	2.14
StdDev scored	2.03
StdDev allowed	2.03
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (home vs away score)	0.050
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Atletico Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.93
StdDev allowed	2.10
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.113
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	27.78%
1	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%	22.22%
Total	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	44.44%	100%

Castellon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.56
Mean allowed	2.78
StdDev scored	1.25
StdDev allowed	3.00
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.349
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	5.56%	33.33%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Celta Vigo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.51
StdDev allowed	1.80
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.023
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%	38.89%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	22.22%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	100%

Deportivo La Coruna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.06
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	2.18
StdDev allowed	2.58
Mean total goals/game	4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.157
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
Total	5.56%	16.67%	33.33%	22.22%	—	22.22%	100%

Osasuna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	2.56
StdDev scored	2.31
StdDev allowed	2.23
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.280
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Real Murcia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.83
Mean allowed	2.28
StdDev scored	1.25
StdDev allowed	2.24
Mean total goals/game	4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.318
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	27.78%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	100%

Real Oviedo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.22
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	2.16
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	4.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.335
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.83
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	2.66
StdDev allowed	1.64
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.484
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
3	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Sevilla — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.42
StdDev allowed	1.57
Mean total goals/game	3.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.297
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
Total	5.56%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Sporting Gijon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.67
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	2.28
StdDev allowed	1.62
Mean total goals/game	4.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.016
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Real Oviedo	27	18.5	+8.50
2	Atletico Madrid	24	18.5	+5.51
3	Real Murcia	20	17.0	+2.99
4	Deportivo La Coruna	20	19.3	+0.71
5	Celta Vigo	17	17.6	-0.60

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Castellon	4	11.0	-7.04
2	Sevilla	13	17.8	-4.75
3	Real Union	20	22.4	-2.42
4	Osasuna	17	18.8	-1.81
5	Sporting Gijon	18	19.1	-1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Real Oviedo	4	Jan 22 – Feb 12	1 in 75
2	Sporting Gijon	4	Dec 25 – Jan 15	1 in 18
3	Celta Vigo	3	Feb 5 – Feb 19	1 in 16
4	Deportivo La Coruna	3	Feb 26 – Mar 12	1 in 15
5	Atletico Madrid	4	Feb 19 – Mar 12	1 in 11

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Castellon	9	Jan 29 – Mar 26	1 in 17,398
2	Real Murcia	3	Jan 15 – Jan 29	1 in 12
3	Sevilla	3	Mar 5 – Mar 19	1 in 11
4	Celta Vigo	3	Jan 1 – Jan 15	1 in 9
5	Atletico Madrid	2	Dec 4 – Dec 11	1 in 8

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Madrid	9	Jan 15 – Mar 12	1 in 82
2	Celta Vigo	4	Feb 5 – Feb 26	1 in 22
3	Real Oviedo	5	Dec 11 – Jan 8	1 in 18
4	Real Murcia	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 16
5	Osasuna	3	Feb 12 – Feb 26	1 in 8

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Castellon	9	Jan 29 – Mar 26	1 in 623
2	Sevilla	7	Feb 12 – Mar 26	1 in 147
3	Atletico Madrid	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 19
4	Deportivo La Coruna	4	Jan 29 – Feb 19	1 in 14
5	Osasuna	3	Dec 18 – Jan 1	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Real Oviedo	8.00%	14.00%	16.00%	9.00%	9.00%	16.00%	7.00%	13.00%	4.00%	4.00%
Atletico Madrid	9.00%	10.00%	6.00%	18.00%	12.00%	13.00%	11.00%	12.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Real Union	45.00%	25.00%	13.00%	5.00%	4.00%	—	5.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	10.00%	15.00%	14.00%	16.00%	10.00%	8.00%	10.00%	8.00%	9.00%	—
Real Murcia	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	12.00%	12.00%	13.00%	19.00%	26.00%	—
Sporting Gijon	9.00%	11.00%	12.00%	18.00%	15.00%	13.00%	9.00%	3.00%	8.00%	2.00%
Osasuna	9.00%	9.00%	16.00%	9.00%	17.00%	7.00%	14.00%	7.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Celta Vigo	3.00%	7.00%	8.00%	6.00%	13.00%	15.00%	14.00%	17.00%	14.00%	3.00%
Sevilla	5.00%	6.00%	9.00%	11.00%	8.00%	13.00%	16.00%	13.00%	14.00%	5.00%
Castellon	—	—	1.00%	—	—	3.00%	1.00%	7.00%	10.00%	78.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level	Direct relegation
Real Union	45.0%	54.0%	1.0%
Deportivo La Coruna	10.0%	90.0%	—
Sporting Gijon	9.0%	89.0%	2.0%
Osasuna	9.0%	88.0%	3.0%
Atletico Madrid	9.0%	87.0%	4.0%
Real Oviedo	8.0%	88.0%	4.0%
Real Murcia	2.0%	98.0%	—
Celta Vigo	3.0%	94.0%	3.0%
Sevilla	5.0%	90.0%	5.0%
Castellon	—	22.0%	78.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1932-11-27	Deportivo La Coruna	D 0-0	1494	1458	73.4%	12.2%	14.4%	-0.5	1
1932-11-27	@ Atletico Madrid	D 0-0	1458	1494	14.4%	12.2%	73.4%	+0.6	1
1932-11-27	Real Union	W 4-2	1421	1606	48.8%	14.3%	36.9%	+1.9	3
1932-11-27	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-4	1606	1421	36.9%	14.3%	48.8%	-1.9	0
1932-11-27	Osasuna	W 2-1	1463	1464	70.0%	12.9%	17.0%	+0.6	3
1932-11-27	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1464	1463	17.0%	12.9%	70.0%	-0.6	0
1932-11-27	Castellon	W 8-1	1469	1468	70.3%	12.9%	16.9%	+3.1	3
1932-11-27	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-8	1468	1469	16.9%	12.9%	70.3%	-3.1	0
1932-11-27	Sporting Gijon	W 5-2	1464	1468	69.8%	13.0%	17.2%	+1.3	3
1932-11-27	@ Sevilla	L 2-5	1468	1464	17.2%	13.0%	69.8%	-1.3	0
1932-12-04	Sevilla	L 1-3	1465	1465	70.2%	12.9%	16.9%	-3.8	0
1932-12-04	@ Castellon	W 3-1	1465	1465	16.9%	12.9%	70.2%	+3.8	6
1932-12-04	Real Oviedo	W 3-1	1459	1472	68.9%	13.1%	17.9%	+1.1	4
1932-12-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-3	1472	1459	17.9%	13.1%	68.9%	-1.1	3
1932-12-04	Celta Vigo	W 4-2	1464	1423	73.8%	12.1%	14.1%	+0.8	3
1932-12-04	@ Osasuna	L 2-4	1423	1464	14.1%	12.1%	73.8%	-0.8	3
1932-12-04	Atletico Madrid	W 7-1	1605	1493	79.5%	10.3%	10.2%	+1.6	3
1932-12-04	@ Real Union	L 1-7	1493	1605	10.2%	10.3%	79.5%	-1.6	1
1932-12-04	Real Murcia	D 2-2	1467	1463	70.5%	12.8%	16.7%	-0.3	1
1932-12-04	@ Sporting Gijon	D 2-2	1463	1467	16.7%	12.8%	70.5%	+0.3	4
1932-12-11	Osasuna	L 1-5	1492	1464	72.7%	12.3%	15.0%	-7.2	1
1932-12-11	@ Atletico Madrid	W 5-1	1464	1492	15.0%	12.3%	72.7%	+7.2	6
1932-12-11	Castellon	W 4-1	1422	1461	66.3%	13.6%	20.1%	+1.7	6
1932-12-11	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	1461	1422	20.1%	13.6%	66.3%	-1.7	0
1932-12-11	Deportivo La Coruna	W 1-0	1464	1460	70.5%	12.8%	16.7%	+0.6	7
1932-12-11	@ Real Murcia	L 0-1	1460	1464	16.7%	12.8%	70.5%	-0.6	4
1932-12-11	Sporting Gijon	D 3-3	1471	1466	70.6%	12.8%	16.6%	-0.3	4
1932-12-11	@ Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1466	1471	16.6%	12.8%	70.6%	+0.3	2
1932-12-11	Sevilla	W 1-0	1606	1469	81.3%	9.6%	9.0%	+0.3	6
1932-12-11	@ Real Union	L 0-1	1469	1606	9.0%	9.6%	81.3%	-0.3	6
1932-12-18	Real Murcia	L 1-3	1459	1464	69.7%	13.0%	17.3%	-3.8	0
1932-12-18	@ Castellon	W 3-1	1464	1459	17.3%	13.0%	69.7%	+3.8	10
1932-12-18	Sporting Gijon	W 4-3	1459	1467	69.5%	13.0%	17.5%	+0.6	7
1932-12-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 3-4	1467	1459	17.5%	13.0%	69.5%	-0.6	2
1932-12-18	Real Union	L 1-2	1472	1606	55.4%	14.4%	30.3%	-1.8	6
1932-12-18	@ Osasuna	W 2-1	1606	1472	30.3%	14.4%	55.4%	+1.8	9
1932-12-18	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1471	1424	74.4%	11.9%	13.7%	+0.5	7
1932-12-18	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1424	1471	13.7%	11.9%	74.4%	-0.5	6
1932-12-18	Atletico Madrid	D 0-0	1468	1484	68.7%	13.2%	18.2%	-0.5	7
1932-12-18	@ Sevilla	D 0-0	1484	1468	18.2%	13.2%	68.7%	+0.5	2
1932-12-25	Atletico Madrid	L 3-4	1456	1485	67.3%	13.4%	19.3%	-2.0	0
1932-12-25	@ Castellon	W 4-3	1485	1456	19.3%	13.4%	67.3%	+2.0	5
1932-12-25	Sevilla	W 4-1	1424	1468	65.8%	13.6%	20.6%	+1.8	9
1932-12-25	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	1468	1424	20.6%	13.6%	65.8%	-1.8	7
1932-12-25	Real Oviedo	L 1-3	1468	1471	69.9%	13.0%	17.2%	-3.8	10
1932-12-25	@ Real Murcia	W 3-1	1471	1468	17.2%	13.0%	69.9%	+3.8	10
1932-12-25	Deportivo La Coruna	W 7-1	1608	1460	82.1%	9.3%	8.6%	+1.3	12
1932-12-25	@ Real Union	L 1-7	1460	1608	8.6%	9.3%	82.1%	-1.3	7
1932-12-25	Osasuna	W 8-2	1466	1470	69.8%	13.0%	17.2%	+2.3	5
1932-12-25	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-8	1470	1466	17.2%	13.0%	69.8%	-2.3	6
1933-01-01	Celta Vigo	W 2-0	1487	1425	75.6%	11.6%	12.8%	+0.9	8
1933-01-01	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1425	1487	12.8%	11.6%	75.6%	-0.9	9
1933-01-01	Castellon	W 4-0	1459	1454	70.6%	12.8%	16.6%	+2.2	10
1933-01-01	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1454	1459	16.6%	12.8%	70.6%	-2.2	0
1933-01-01	Real Oviedo	D 3-3	1467	1475	69.5%	13.0%	17.5%	-0.3	7
1933-01-01	@ Osasuna	D 3-3	1475	1467	17.5%	13.0%	69.5%	+0.3	11
1933-01-01	Real Murcia	W 3-1	1466	1464	70.4%	12.9%	16.8%	+1.0	10
1933-01-01	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1464	1466	16.8%	12.9%	70.4%	-1.0	10
1933-01-01	Real Union	W 5-1	1468	1610	54.6%	14.4%	31.0%	+3.3	8
1933-01-01	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1610	1468	31.0%	14.4%	54.6%	-3.3	12
1933-01-08	Real Union	W 3-0	1452	1606	52.8%	14.4%	32.7%	+3.2	3
1933-01-08	@ Castellon	L 0-3	1606	1452	32.7%	14.4%	52.8%	-3.2	12
1933-01-08	Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	1424	1472	65.5%	13.7%	20.8%	-1.9	9
1933-01-08	@ Celta Vigo	W 4-3	1472	1424	20.8%	13.7%	65.5%	+1.9	11
1933-01-08	Deportivo La Coruna	W 8-1	1467	1461	70.8%	12.8%	16.4%	+3.0	10
1933-01-08	@ Osasuna	L 1-8	1461	1467	16.4%	12.8%	70.8%	-3.0	10
1933-01-08	Atletico Madrid	W 4-1	1463	1488	67.8%	13.3%	18.9%	+1.6	13
1933-01-08	@ Real Murcia	L 1-4	1488	1463	18.9%	13.3%	67.8%	-1.6	8
1933-01-08	Sevilla	W 5-1	1475	1467	70.9%	12.7%	16.3%	+1.8	14
1933-01-08	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-5	1467	1475	16.3%	12.7%	70.9%	-1.8	10
1933-01-15	Real Oviedo	W 3-0	1486	1477	71.0%	12.7%	16.2%	+1.7	11
1933-01-15	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-3	1477	1486	16.2%	12.7%	71.0%	-1.6	14
1933-01-15	Celta Vigo	W 7-2	1458	1423	73.4%	12.2%	14.4%	+1.6	13
1933-01-15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 2-7	1423	1458	14.4%	12.2%	73.4%	-1.6	9
1933-01-15	Real Murcia	W 9-1	1603	1465	81.4%	9.6%	9.0%	+1.8	15
1933-01-15	@ Real Union	L 1-9	1465	1603	9.0%	9.6%	81.4%	-1.8	13
1933-01-15	Osasuna	W 3-1	1465	1470	69.7%	13.0%	17.3%	+1.0	13
1933-01-15	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1470	1465	17.3%	13.0%	69.7%	-1.0	10
1933-01-15	Castellon	W 6-1	1474	1455	71.9%	12.5%	15.6%	+2.1	14
1933-01-15	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-6	1455	1474	15.6%	12.5%	71.9%	-2.1	3
1933-01-22	Sporting Gijon	W 2-0	1488	1476	71.3%	12.7%	16.0%	+1.1	14
1933-01-22	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-2	1476	1488	16.0%	12.7%	71.3%	-1.1	14
1933-01-22	Sevilla	W 3-1	1459	1466	69.5%	13.0%	17.5%	+1.1	16
1933-01-22	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-3	1466	1459	17.5%	13.0%	69.5%	-1.1	13
1933-01-22	Castellon	L 1-2	1469	1453	71.7%	12.6%	15.7%	-2.2	10
1933-01-22	@ Osasuna	W 2-1	1453	1469	15.7%	12.6%	71.7%	+2.2	6
1933-01-22	Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1463	1421	74.0%	12.0%	14.0%	-2.3	13
1933-01-22	@ Real Murcia	W 2-1	1421	1463	14.0%	12.0%	74.0%	+2.3	12
1933-01-22	Real Union	W 2-0	1475	1605	56.0%	14.4%	29.6%	+2.0	17
1933-01-22	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-2	1605	1475	29.6%	14.4%	56.0%	-2.0	15
1933-01-29	Real Oviedo	L 0-2	1455	1477	68.0%	13.3%	18.7%	-4.3	6
1933-01-29	@ Castellon	W 2-0	1477	1455	18.7%	13.3%	68.0%	+4.3	20
1933-01-29	Atletico Madrid	D 1-1	1460	1489	67.4%	13.4%	19.2%	-0.4	17
1933-01-29	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1489	1460	19.2%	13.4%	67.4%	+0.4	15
1933-01-29	Real Murcia	W 6-1	1467	1461	70.8%	12.8%	16.4%	+2.2	13
1933-01-29	@ Osasuna	L 1-6	1461	1467	16.4%	12.8%	70.8%	-2.2	13
1933-01-29	Celta Vigo	W 3-0	1603	1423	84.1%	8.5%	7.4%	+0.7	18
1933-01-29	@ Real Union	L 0-3	1423	1603	7.4%	8.5%	84.1%	-0.7	12
1933-01-29	Sevilla	W 5-1	1474	1465	71.0%	12.7%	16.2%	+1.8	17
1933-01-29	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-5	1465	1474	16.2%	12.7%	71.0%	-1.8	13
1933-02-05	Real Union	W 4-2	1489	1604	57.9%	14.3%	27.8%	+1.5	18
1933-02-05	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-4	1604	1489	27.8%	14.3%	57.9%	-1.5	18
1933-02-05	Osasuna	W 3-0	1423	1469	65.5%	13.7%	20.8%	+2.1	15
1933-02-05	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-3	1469	1423	20.8%	13.7%	65.5%	-2.1	13
1933-02-05	Sporting Gijon	W 5-1	1458	1476	68.5%	13.2%	18.3%	+2.0	16
1933-02-05	@ Real Murcia	L 1-5	1476	1458	18.3%	13.2%	68.5%	-2.0	17
1933-02-05	Deportivo La Coruna	W 6-1	1482	1460	72.2%	12.5%	15.4%	+2.1	23
1933-02-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-6	1460	1482	15.4%	12.5%	72.2%	-2.1	17
1933-02-05	Castellon	W 4-0	1464	1451	71.4%	12.7%	16.0%	+2.1	16
1933-02-05	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1451	1464	16.0%	12.7%	71.4%	-2.1	6
1933-02-12	Celta Vigo	L —-—	1449	1425	72.4%	12.4%	15.2%	+0.0	6
1933-02-12	@ Castellon	W —-—	1425	1449	15.2%	12.4%	72.4%	+0.0	18
1933-02-12	Real Murcia	D 1-1	1458	1461	69.9%	13.0%	17.1%	-0.4	18
1933-02-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1461	1458	17.1%	13.0%	69.9%	+0.4	17
1933-02-12	Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1467	1491	67.9%	13.3%	18.8%	-0.3	14
1933-02-12	@ Osasuna	D 2-2	1491	1467	18.8%	13.3%	67.9%	+0.3	19
1933-02-12	Real Union	L 1-2	1466	1602	55.2%	14.4%	30.4%	-1.8	16
1933-02-12	@ Sevilla	W 2-1	1602	1466	30.4%	14.4%	55.2%	+1.8	21
1933-02-12	Real Oviedo	L 2-3	1474	1484	69.3%	13.1%	17.6%	-2.0	17
1933-02-12	@ Sporting Gijon	W 3-2	1484	1474	17.6%	13.1%	69.3%	+2.0	26
1933-02-19	Sevilla	W 2-1	1491	1464	72.7%	12.4%	15.0%	+0.5	22
1933-02-19	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1464	1491	15.0%	12.4%	72.7%	-0.5	16
1933-02-19	Real Oviedo	W 2-1	1425	1486	64.0%	13.9%	22.2%	+0.8	21
1933-02-19	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1486	1425	22.2%	13.9%	64.0%	-0.8	26
1933-02-19	Castellon	W 1-0	1461	1449	71.3%	12.7%	16.0%	+0.6	20
1933-02-19	@ Real Murcia	L 0-1	1449	1461	16.0%	12.7%	71.3%	-0.6	6
1933-02-19	Osasuna	D 3-3	1604	1467	81.3%	9.7%	9.0%	-0.4	22
1933-02-19	@ Real Union	D 3-3	1467	1604	9.0%	9.7%	81.3%	+0.4	15
1933-02-19	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-0	1472	1458	71.5%	12.6%	15.8%	+1.1	20
1933-02-19	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-2	1458	1472	15.8%	12.6%	71.5%	-1.1	18
1933-02-26	Castellon	W 8-1	1492	1448	74.1%	12.0%	13.9%	+2.5	25
1933-02-26	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-8	1448	1492	13.9%	12.0%	74.1%	-2.5	6
1933-02-26	Real Union	W 5-0	1456	1603	53.8%	14.4%	31.8%	+5.0	21
1933-02-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-5	1603	1456	31.8%	14.4%	53.8%	-5.0	22
1933-02-26	Sporting Gijon	W 3-2	1467	1473	69.6%	13.0%	17.4%	+0.6	18
1933-02-26	@ Osasuna	L 2-3	1473	1467	17.4%	13.0%	69.6%	-0.6	20
1933-02-26	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1485	1462	72.3%	12.4%	15.2%	+1.5	29
1933-02-26	@ Real Oviedo	L 0-3	1462	1485	15.2%	12.4%	72.3%	-1.5	20
1933-02-26	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1463	1425	73.6%	12.1%	14.3%	-0.5	17
1933-02-26	@ Sevilla	D 1-1	1425	1463	14.3%	12.1%	73.6%	+0.5	22
1933-03-05	Deportivo La Coruna	L —-—	1445	1461	68.6%	13.2%	18.2%	+0.0	6
1933-03-05	@ Castellon	W —-—	1461	1445	18.2%	13.2%	68.6%	+0.0	24
1933-03-05	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1426	1494	63.2%	13.9%	22.8%	-1.9	22
1933-03-05	@ Celta Vigo	W 3-2	1494	1426	22.8%	13.9%	63.2%	+1.9	28
1933-03-05	Sevilla	W 3-2	1460	1463	69.9%	13.0%	17.2%	+0.6	23
1933-03-05	@ Real Murcia	L 2-3	1463	1460	17.2%	13.0%	69.9%	-0.6	17
1933-03-05	Osasuna	W 7-1	1487	1468	71.9%	12.5%	15.6%	+2.5	32
1933-03-05	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-7	1468	1487	15.6%	12.5%	71.9%	-2.5	18
1933-03-05	Sporting Gijon	W 3-1	1598	1473	80.5%	10.0%	9.5%	+0.5	25
1933-03-05	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1473	1598	9.5%	10.0%	80.5%	-0.6	20
1933-03-12	Real Murcia	W 4-2	1496	1461	73.4%	12.2%	14.4%	+0.8	31
1933-03-12	@ Atletico Madrid	L 2-4	1461	1496	14.4%	12.2%	73.4%	-0.8	23
1933-03-12	Osasuna	W 5-0	1461	1465	69.8%	13.0%	17.2%	+2.8	27
1933-03-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-5	1465	1461	17.2%	13.0%	69.8%	-2.8	18
1933-03-12	Castellon	W 6-0	1599	1445	82.4%	9.2%	8.4%	+1.5	28
1933-03-12	@ Real Union	L 0-6	1445	1599	8.4%	9.2%	82.4%	-1.6	6
1933-03-12	Real Oviedo	L 1-2	1462	1489	67.6%	13.4%	19.1%	-2.1	17
1933-03-12	@ Sevilla	W 2-1	1489	1462	19.1%	13.4%	67.6%	+2.1	35
1933-03-12	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1472	1424	74.5%	11.9%	13.6%	+0.8	23
1933-03-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 1-3	1424	1472	13.6%	11.9%	74.5%	-0.8	22
1933-03-19	Sporting Gijon	L —-—	1444	1473	67.3%	13.4%	19.3%	+0.0	6
1933-03-19	@ Castellon	W —-—	1473	1444	19.3%	13.4%	67.3%	+0.0	26
1933-03-19	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1423	1464	66.1%	13.6%	20.3%	+1.7	25
1933-03-19	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	1464	1423	20.3%	13.6%	66.1%	-1.7	27
1933-03-19	Sevilla	W 4-0	1462	1460	70.4%	12.9%	16.8%	+2.2	21
1933-03-19	@ Osasuna	L 0-4	1460	1462	16.8%	12.9%	70.4%	-2.2	17
1933-03-19	Real Union	W 2-1	1460	1601	54.6%	14.4%	31.0%	+1.0	26
1933-03-19	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1601	1460	31.0%	14.4%	54.6%	-1.0	28
1933-03-19	Atletico Madrid	W 5-1	1491	1497	69.7%	13.0%	17.3%	+1.9	38
1933-03-19	@ Real Oviedo	L 1-5	1497	1491	17.3%	13.0%	69.7%	-1.9	31
1933-03-26	Osasuna	L —-—	1444	1465	68.2%	13.3%	18.6%	+0.0	6
1933-03-26	@ Castellon	W —-—	1465	1444	18.6%	13.3%	68.2%	+0.0	24
1933-03-26	Real Murcia	L 1-2	1425	1461	66.6%	13.5%	19.9%	-2.1	25
1933-03-26	@ Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1461	1425	19.9%	13.5%	66.6%	+2.1	29
1933-03-26	Real Oviedo	D 2-2	1599	1493	79.1%	10.5%	10.4%	-0.4	29
1933-03-26	@ Real Union	D 2-2	1493	1599	10.4%	10.5%	79.1%	+0.4	39
1933-03-26	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1458	1463	69.8%	13.0%	17.3%	-0.4	18
1933-03-26	@ Sevilla	D 1-1	1463	1458	17.3%	13.0%	69.8%	+0.4	28
1933-03-26	Atletico Madrid	L 0-1	1473	1495	68.1%	13.3%	18.6%	-2.3	26
1933-03-26	@ Sporting Gijon	W 1-0	1495	1473	18.6%	13.3%	68.1%	+2.3	34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-01-22	14.00%	Celta Vigo	1421	2	@ Real Murcia	1463	1
2	1932-12-11	14.98%	Osasuna	1464	5	@ Atletico Madrid	1492	1
3	1933-02-12	15.20%	Celta Vigo	1425	-1	@ Castellon	1449	-1
4	1933-01-22	15.71%	Castellon	1453	2	@ Osasuna	1469	1
5	1932-12-04	16.92%	Sevilla	1465	3	@ Castellon	1465	1
6	1932-12-25	17.16%	Real Oviedo	1471	3	@ Real Murcia	1468	1
7	1932-12-18	17.28%	Real Murcia	1464	3	@ Castellon	1459	1
8	1933-02-12	17.65%	Real Oviedo	1484	3	@ Sporting Gijon	1474	2
9	1933-03-05	18.18%	Deportivo La Coruna	1461	-1	@ Castellon	1445	-1
10	1933-03-26	18.56%	Osasuna	1465	-1	@ Castellon	1444	-1
11	1933-03-26	18.65%	Atletico Madrid	1495	1	@ Sporting Gijon	1473	0
12	1933-01-29	18.70%	Real Oviedo	1477	2	@ Castellon	1455	0
13	1933-03-12	19.05%	Real Oviedo	1489	2	@ Sevilla	1462	1
14	1932-12-25	19.26%	Atletico Madrid	1485	4	@ Castellon	1456	3
15	1933-03-19	19.26%	Sporting Gijon	1473	-1	@ Castellon	1444	-1
16	1933-03-26	19.85%	Real Murcia	1461	2	@ Celta Vigo	1425	1
17	1933-01-08	20.85%	Sporting Gijon	1472	4	@ Celta Vigo	1424	3
18	1933-03-05	22.84%	Atletico Madrid	1494	3	@ Celta Vigo	1426	2
19	1932-12-18	30.26%	Real Union	1606	2	@ Osasuna	1472	1
20	1933-02-12	30.42%	Real Union	1602	2	@ Sevilla	1466	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1932-12-11	7.15	Osasuna	5	1464	14.98%	@ Atletico Madrid	1	1492	72.67%
2	1933-02-26	5.02	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1456	53.83%	Real Union	0	1603	31.76%
3	1933-01-29	4.26	Real Oviedo	2	1477	18.70%	@ Castellon	0	1455	68.00%
4	1932-12-04	3.80	Sevilla	3	1465	16.92%	@ Castellon	1	1465	70.19%
5	1932-12-18	3.78	Real Murcia	3	1464	17.28%	@ Castellon	1	1459	69.73%
6	1932-12-25	3.78	Real Oviedo	3	1471	17.16%	@ Real Murcia	1	1468	69.88%
7	1933-01-01	3.33	@ Sporting Gijon	5	1468	54.56%	Real Union	1	1610	31.04%
8	1933-01-08	3.21	@ Castellon	3	1452	52.84%	Real Union	0	1606	32.74%
9	1932-11-27	3.12	@ Real Oviedo	8	1469	70.26%	Castellon	1	1468	16.86%
10	1933-01-08	3.04	@ Osasuna	8	1467	70.78%	Deportivo La Coruna	1	1461	16.44%
11	1933-03-12	2.81	@ Deportivo La Coruna	5	1461	69.82%	Osasuna	0	1465	17.21%
12	1933-02-26	2.55	@ Atletico Madrid	8	1492	74.10%	Castellon	1	1448	13.90%
13	1933-03-05	2.49	@ Real Oviedo	7	1487	71.92%	Osasuna	1	1468	15.55%
14	1933-01-22	2.30	Celta Vigo	2	1421	14.00%	@ Real Murcia	1	1463	73.98%
15	1932-12-25	2.28	@ Sporting Gijon	8	1466	69.82%	Osasuna	2	1470	17.21%
16	1933-03-26	2.26	Atletico Madrid	1	1495	18.65%	@ Sporting Gijon	0	1473	68.07%
17	1933-01-22	2.24	Castellon	2	1453	15.71%	@ Osasuna	1	1469	71.72%
18	1933-01-29	2.23	@ Osasuna	6	1467	70.77%	Real Murcia	1	1461	16.45%
19	1933-03-19	2.22	@ Osasuna	4	1462	70.38%	Sevilla	0	1460	16.76%
20	1933-01-01	2.19	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1459	70.64%	Castellon	0	1454	16.56%
21	1933-03-12	2.12	Real Oviedo	2	1489	19.05%	@ Sevilla	1	1462	67.58%
22	1933-02-05	2.11	@ Celta Vigo	3	1423	65.53%	Osasuna	0	1469	20.80%
23	1933-02-05	2.11	@ Sevilla	4	1464	71.39%	Castellon	0	1451	15.96%
24	1933-01-15	2.10	@ Sporting Gijon	6	1474	71.92%	Castellon	1	1455	15.55%
25	1933-03-26	2.09	Real Murcia	2	1461	19.85%	@ Celta Vigo	1	1425	66.64%