1933-34 Segunda División Season

89 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Promoted

—

No promotions.

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sevilla

7.95 points above expected

25 points · 17.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Alaves

13.09 points below expected

5 points · 18.09 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sevilla	17	10	5	2	25	56	27	+29	17.1	+7.95
2	Atletico Madrid	18	11	2	5	24	45	28	+17	18.1	+5.94
3	Real Murcia	18	10	1	7	21	41	31	+10	17.3	+3.70
4	Celta Vigo	18	9	2	7	20	44	28	+16	17.7	+2.26
5	Osasuna	18	9	0	9	18	47	39	+8	17.5	+0.54
6	Sporting Gijon	18	8	2	8	18	30	38	-8	17.6	+0.41
7	Deportivo La Coruna	18	7	3	8	17	35	38	-3	17.7	-0.72
8	Real Union	18	7	2	9	16	31	43	-12	18.9	-2.92
9	Sabadell	18	5	4	9	14	31	45	-14	18.1	-4.07
10	Alaves	17	1	3	13	5	18	61	-43	18.1	-13.09

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Real Union	1572	16	18.92	-2.92	16.0%	11	15	17	19	21	23	24
Alaves	1571	5	19.09	-14.09	0.0%	14	15	18	19	20	22	25
Atletico Madrid	1526	24	18.06	+5.94	100.0%	12	14	16	18	19	22	24
Sabadell	1517	14	18.07	-4.07	6.0%	13	14	17	18	20	21	23
Sevilla	1509	25	18.05	+6.95	100.0%	13	14	16	18	19	23	24
Real Murcia	1502	21	17.30	+3.70	98.0%	13	14	16	18	19	21	22
Osasuna	1501	18	17.46	+0.54	69.0%	12	14	16	17	19	21	24
Sporting Gijon	1500	18	17.59	+0.41	63.0%	12	14	16	18	19	21	24
Deportivo La Coruna	1495	17	17.72	-0.72	39.0%	12	14	16	18	19	21	23
Celta Vigo	1481	20	17.74	+2.26	87.0%	12	14	16	18	19	21	22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ALA	AM	CV	DLC	OSA	RM	RU	SAB	SEV	SG
Alaves	—	0-0-2 3.05	1-0-1 3.17	0-1-1 3.13	0-0-2 3.16	0-0-2 3.11	0-1-1 2.97	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-1 0.38	0-0-2 3.11
Atletico Madrid	2-0-0 2.81	—	1-0-1 3.04	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 2.93	0-1-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.98
Celta Vigo	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.82	—	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.89	1-0-1 2.88	2-0-0 2.71	1-1-0 2.84	1-0-1 2.87	0-1-1 2.87
Deportivo La Coruna	1-1-0 2.73	0-0-2 2.88	1-0-1 2.98	—	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.76	1-1-0 2.87	0-1-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.92
Osasuna	2-0-0 2.71	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.93	—	1-0-1 2.93	1-0-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.93	1-0-1 2.91
Real Murcia	2-0-0 2.75	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.93	—	2-0-0 2.75	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.92	1-0-1 2.92
Real Union	1-1-0 2.89	1-0-1 3.04	0-0-2 3.15	1-0-1 3.11	1-0-1 3.10	0-0-2 3.11	—	1-0-1 3.05	0-1-1 3.08	2-0-0 3.08
Sabadell	1-1-0 2.79	0-0-2 2.93	0-1-1 3.02	0-1-1 2.99	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.82	—	0-1-1 2.96	1-0-1 2.98
Sevilla	1-0-0 2.54	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.94	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 2.94	1-1-0 2.79	1-1-0 2.90	—	1-1-0 2.93
Sporting Gijon	2-0-0 2.75	1-0-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.94	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.94	0-0-2 2.78	1-0-1 2.89	0-1-1 2.93	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	1.12%	2.25%	2.81%	3.37%	3.93%	3.93%	17.42%
1	2.25%	4.49%	7.30%	7.30%	2.25%	2.81%	26.40%
2	2.81%	7.30%	4.49%	3.37%	0.56%	2.25%	20.79%
3	3.37%	7.30%	3.37%	2.25%	1.12%	—	17.42%
4	3.93%	2.25%	0.56%	1.12%	—	—	7.87%
5+	3.93%	2.81%	2.25%	—	—	1.12%	10.11%
Total	17.42%	26.40%	20.79%	17.42%	7.87%	10.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.12
Mean allowed	2.12
StdDev scored	1.81
StdDev allowed	1.81
Mean total goals/game	4.25
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.170
Sample size (games)	89

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.76%	11.76%	—	5.88%	17.65%	47.06%
1	—	5.88%	—	—	—	—	5.88%
2	—	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	11.76%	41.18%
3	—	—	—	—	5.88%	—	5.88%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	23.53%	23.53%	5.88%	17.65%	29.41%	100%

Alaves — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.06
Mean allowed	3.59
StdDev scored	1.09
StdDev allowed	2.60
Mean total goals/game	4.65
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.053
Games played	17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	11.11%	44.44%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Atletico Madrid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.512
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Celta Vigo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.44
Mean allowed	1.56
StdDev scored	2.15
StdDev allowed	1.38
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.722
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
4	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Deportivo La Coruna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.94
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.35
StdDev allowed	2.17
Mean total goals/game	4.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.622
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
1	5.56%	—	—	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	27.78%	16.67%	5.56%	27.78%	11.11%	11.11%	100%

Osasuna — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.61
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	2.50
StdDev allowed	1.89
Mean total goals/game	4.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.459
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
1	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	16.67%	22.22%	—	5.56%	100%

Real Murcia — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.28
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	1.71
StdDev allowed	1.49
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.454
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%
Total	—	33.33%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Real Union — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.39
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.127
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Sabadell — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	2.50
StdDev scored	1.56
StdDev allowed	1.79
Mean total goals/game	4.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.388
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%	—	11.76%
1	—	—	5.88%	—	—	—	5.88%
2	5.88%	5.88%	5.88%	—	—	—	17.65%
3	—	17.65%	—	11.76%	—	—	29.41%
4	5.88%	—	—	—	—	—	5.88%
5+	5.88%	11.76%	5.88%	—	—	5.88%	29.41%
Total	23.53%	35.29%	17.65%	11.76%	5.88%	5.88%	100%

Sevilla — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.29
Mean allowed	1.59
StdDev scored	2.26
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	4.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.132
Games played	17

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Sporting Gijon — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	1.37
StdDev allowed	1.97
Mean total goals/game	3.78
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.160
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sevilla	25	17.1	+7.95
2	Atletico Madrid	24	18.1	+5.94
3	Real Murcia	21	17.3	+3.70
4	Celta Vigo	20	17.7	+2.26
5	Osasuna	18	17.5	+0.54

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Alaves	5	18.1	-13.09
2	Sabadell	14	18.1	-4.07
3	Real Union	16	18.9	-2.92
4	Deportivo La Coruna	17	17.7	-0.72
5	Sporting Gijon	18	17.6	+0.41

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Madrid	3	Dec 24 – Jan 7	1 in 384
2	Real Union	3	Dec 31 – Jan 14	1 in 221
3	Celta Vigo	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 38
4	Sporting Gijon	3	Dec 3 – Dec 17	1 in 36
5	Osasuna	3	Jan 14 – Jan 28	1 in 34

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	11	Dec 3 – Feb 18	1 in 25,585,736
2	Real Union	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 39
3	Atletico Madrid	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 26
4	Sabadell	3	Jan 21 – Feb 4	1 in 20
5	Real Murcia	3	Nov 5 – Nov 19	1 in 20

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sevilla	10	Nov 5 – Jan 7	1 in 6,614
2	Atletico Madrid	9	Dec 10 – Feb 4	1 in 4,861
3	Real Murcia	6	Dec 31 – Feb 4	1 in 104
4	Sporting Gijon	6	Nov 12 – Dec 17	1 in 91
5	Real Union	4	Dec 24 – Jan 14	1 in 54

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Alaves	13	Dec 3 – Mar 4	1 in 1,437,614
2	Real Union	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 12
3	Sabadell	5	Dec 10 – Jan 7	1 in 12
4	Atletico Madrid	3	Feb 11 – Feb 25	1 in 10
5	Deportivo La Coruna	3	Dec 3 – Dec 17	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Sevilla	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%	13.00%	10.00%	7.00%	12.00%	13.00%	7.00%	5.00%
Atletico Madrid	12.00%	6.00%	15.00%	11.00%	12.00%	7.00%	13.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%
Real Murcia	8.00%	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	10.00%	10.00%	13.00%	15.00%
Celta Vigo	11.00%	12.00%	16.00%	6.00%	9.00%	10.00%	8.00%	9.00%	12.00%	7.00%
Osasuna	5.00%	13.00%	7.00%	8.00%	3.00%	11.00%	12.00%	15.00%	15.00%	11.00%
Sporting Gijon	4.00%	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	13.00%	8.00%	6.00%	14.00%	7.00%	20.00%
Deportivo La Coruna	3.00%	14.00%	10.00%	10.00%	15.00%	9.00%	6.00%	8.00%	10.00%	15.00%
Real Union	25.00%	9.00%	5.00%	9.00%	7.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Sabadell	9.00%	9.00%	7.00%	10.00%	10.00%	8.00%	20.00%	5.00%	11.00%	11.00%
Alaves	11.00%	16.00%	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%	14.00%	5.00%	11.00%	8.00%	2.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Direct promotion	Same level
Real Union	34.0%	66.0%
Alaves	27.0%	73.0%
Celta Vigo	23.0%	77.0%
Sevilla	23.0%	77.0%
Atletico Madrid	18.0%	82.0%
Osasuna	18.0%	82.0%
Sabadell	18.0%	82.0%
Deportivo La Coruna	17.0%	83.0%
Real Murcia	12.0%	88.0%
Sporting Gijon	10.0%	90.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1933-11-05	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-1	1516	1496	87.7%	6.8%	5.5%	+0.3	3
1933-11-05	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1496	1516	5.5%	6.8%	87.7%	-0.3	0
1933-11-05	Real Murcia	W 3-1	1473	1496	86.0%	7.0%	6.9%	+0.4	3
1933-11-05	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-3	1496	1473	6.9%	7.0%	86.0%	-0.4	0
1933-11-05	Sevilla	L 1-3	1497	1493	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	-4.6	0
1933-11-05	@ Osasuna	W 3-1	1493	1497	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	+4.6	3
1933-11-05	Alaves	D 1-1	1576	1601	86.0%	7.0%	7.0%	-0.7	1
1933-11-05	@ Real Union	D 1-1	1601	1576	7.0%	7.0%	86.0%	+0.6	1
1933-11-05	Sporting Gijon	W 5-2	1524	1501	87.8%	6.8%	5.4%	+0.4	3
1933-11-05	@ Sabadell	L 2-5	1501	1524	5.4%	6.8%	87.8%	-0.4	0
1933-11-12	Sabadell	D 2-2	1602	1524	89.5%	6.4%	4.0%	-0.5	2
1933-11-12	@ Alaves	D 2-2	1524	1602	4.0%	6.4%	89.5%	+0.5	4
1933-11-12	Real Union	W 4-0	1496	1576	83.4%	7.3%	9.3%	+1.1	3
1933-11-12	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1576	1496	9.3%	7.3%	83.4%	-1.2	1
1933-11-12	Atletico Madrid	L 2-3	1496	1517	86.1%	7.0%	6.8%	-2.5	0
1933-11-12	@ Real Murcia	W 3-2	1517	1496	6.8%	7.0%	86.1%	+2.5	6
1933-11-12	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1498	1473	87.9%	6.8%	5.4%	+0.3	6
1933-11-12	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1473	1498	5.4%	6.8%	87.9%	-0.3	3
1933-11-12	Osasuna	W 3-2	1500	1493	87.3%	6.9%	5.9%	+0.2	3
1933-11-12	@ Sporting Gijon	L 2-3	1493	1500	5.9%	6.9%	87.3%	-0.2	0
1933-11-19	Sporting Gijon	D 1-1	1473	1501	85.8%	7.1%	7.1%	-0.6	4
1933-11-19	@ Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1501	1473	7.1%	7.1%	85.8%	+0.6	4
1933-11-19	Alaves	W 10-2	1492	1601	81.8%	7.4%	10.8%	+1.7	3
1933-11-19	@ Osasuna	L 2-10	1601	1492	10.8%	7.4%	81.8%	-1.7	2
1933-11-19	Atletico Madrid	W 3-1	1575	1519	88.9%	6.6%	4.6%	+0.2	4
1933-11-19	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1519	1575	4.6%	6.6%	88.9%	-0.3	6
1933-11-19	Deportivo La Coruna	D 1-1	1525	1497	88.0%	6.7%	5.3%	-0.7	5
1933-11-19	@ Sabadell	D 1-1	1497	1525	5.3%	6.7%	88.0%	+0.7	4
1933-11-19	Real Murcia	W 6-2	1498	1493	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	+0.5	9
1933-11-19	@ Sevilla	L 2-6	1493	1498	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	-0.5	0
1933-11-26	Celta Vigo	W 2-1	1600	1472	90.8%	6.1%	3.1%	+0.1	5
1933-11-26	@ Alaves	L 1-2	1472	1600	3.1%	6.1%	90.8%	-0.1	4
1933-11-26	Sabadell	W 3-1	1519	1524	86.8%	6.9%	6.3%	+0.4	9
1933-11-26	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1524	1519	6.3%	6.9%	86.8%	-0.4	5
1933-11-26	Osasuna	W 4-0	1498	1494	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	+0.7	7
1933-11-26	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-4	1494	1498	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	-0.7	3
1933-11-26	Real Union	W 3-1	1493	1575	83.3%	7.3%	9.4%	+0.5	3
1933-11-26	@ Real Murcia	L 1-3	1575	1493	9.4%	7.3%	83.3%	-0.5	4
1933-11-26	Sevilla	D 0-0	1501	1498	87.1%	6.9%	6.0%	-0.7	5
1933-11-26	@ Sporting Gijon	D 0-0	1498	1501	6.0%	6.9%	87.1%	+0.7	10
1933-12-03	Deportivo La Coruna	W 3-2	1472	1498	85.9%	7.0%	7.0%	+0.2	7
1933-12-03	@ Celta Vigo	L 2-3	1498	1472	7.0%	7.0%	85.9%	-0.2	7
1933-12-03	Atletico Madrid	W 2-1	1493	1519	85.9%	7.0%	7.0%	+0.2	6
1933-12-03	@ Osasuna	L 1-2	1519	1493	7.0%	7.0%	85.9%	-0.2	9
1933-12-03	Real Union	W 5-1	1524	1574	84.8%	7.2%	8.0%	+0.8	8
1933-12-03	@ Sabadell	L 1-5	1574	1524	8.0%	7.2%	84.8%	-0.8	4
1933-12-03	Alaves	W 4-0	1499	1600	82.3%	7.4%	10.3%	+1.3	13
1933-12-03	@ Sevilla	L 0-4	1600	1499	10.3%	7.4%	82.3%	-1.3	5
1933-12-03	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1500	1493	87.2%	6.9%	5.9%	+0.5	8
1933-12-03	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-3	1493	1500	5.9%	6.9%	87.2%	-0.6	3
1933-12-10	Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	1598	1501	90.1%	6.3%	3.6%	-2.5	5
1933-12-10	@ Alaves	W 4-3	1501	1598	3.6%	6.3%	90.1%	+2.5	11
1933-12-10	Celta Vigo	W 4-0	1519	1472	88.6%	6.6%	4.8%	+0.6	12
1933-12-10	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-4	1472	1519	4.8%	6.6%	88.6%	-0.6	7
1933-12-10	Sevilla	D 3-3	1498	1500	86.9%	6.9%	6.2%	-0.4	8
1933-12-10	@ Deportivo La Coruna	D 3-3	1500	1498	6.2%	6.9%	86.9%	+0.4	14
1933-12-10	Sabadell	W 3-0	1493	1525	85.7%	7.1%	7.2%	+0.7	6
1933-12-10	@ Real Murcia	L 0-3	1525	1493	7.2%	7.1%	85.7%	-0.7	8
1933-12-10	Osasuna	W 3-1	1574	1494	89.6%	6.4%	4.0%	+0.2	7
1933-12-10	@ Real Union	L 1-3	1494	1574	4.0%	6.4%	89.6%	-0.2	6
1933-12-17	Real Murcia	L 2-3	1596	1493	90.2%	6.2%	3.5%	-2.6	5
1933-12-17	@ Alaves	W 3-2	1493	1596	3.5%	6.2%	90.2%	+2.6	9
1933-12-17	Real Union	W 3-0	1472	1574	82.2%	7.4%	10.4%	+1.0	10
1933-12-17	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-3	1574	1472	10.4%	7.4%	82.2%	-1.0	7
1933-12-17	Sabadell	W 6-0	1493	1524	85.7%	7.1%	7.2%	+1.3	9
1933-12-17	@ Osasuna	L 0-6	1524	1493	7.2%	7.1%	85.7%	-1.3	8
1933-12-17	Atletico Madrid	D 3-3	1501	1520	86.2%	7.0%	6.8%	-0.4	15
1933-12-17	@ Sevilla	D 3-3	1520	1501	6.8%	7.0%	86.2%	+0.4	13
1933-12-17	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-0	1504	1498	87.2%	6.9%	5.9%	+0.7	14
1933-12-17	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-4	1498	1504	5.9%	6.9%	87.2%	-0.7	8
1933-12-24	Sporting Gijon	W 5-1	1520	1504	87.5%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.6	16
1933-12-24	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-5	1504	1520	5.6%	6.8%	87.5%	-0.6	14
1933-12-24	Alaves	W 2-0	1497	1593	82.5%	7.4%	10.1%	+0.7	11
1933-12-24	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1593	1497	10.1%	7.4%	82.5%	-0.7	5
1933-12-24	Real Murcia	W 1-0	1495	1496	86.9%	6.9%	6.2%	+0.2	12
1933-12-24	@ Osasuna	L 0-1	1496	1495	6.2%	6.9%	86.9%	-0.2	9
1933-12-24	Sevilla	D 5-5	1573	1500	89.4%	6.5%	4.2%	-0.3	8
1933-12-24	@ Real Union	D 5-5	1500	1573	4.2%	6.5%	89.4%	+0.3	16
1933-12-24	Celta Vigo	D 1-1	1523	1472	88.7%	6.6%	4.7%	-0.7	9
1933-12-24	@ Sabadell	D 1-1	1472	1523	4.7%	6.6%	88.7%	+0.7	11
1933-12-31	Atletico Madrid	L 2-5	1593	1521	89.4%	6.5%	4.2%	-5.7	5
1933-12-31	@ Alaves	W 5-2	1521	1593	4.2%	6.5%	89.4%	+5.7	19
1933-12-31	Osasuna	W 4-1	1473	1495	86.1%	7.0%	6.9%	+0.5	14
1933-12-31	@ Celta Vigo	L 1-4	1495	1473	6.9%	7.0%	86.1%	-0.5	12
1933-12-31	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1496	1498	86.9%	6.9%	6.2%	+0.2	12
1933-12-31	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1498	1496	6.2%	6.9%	86.9%	-0.2	11
1933-12-31	Sabadell	W 5-1	1501	1522	86.1%	7.0%	6.9%	+0.7	19
1933-12-31	@ Sevilla	L 1-5	1522	1501	6.9%	7.0%	86.1%	-0.7	9
1933-12-31	Real Union	L 1-2	1504	1572	84.0%	7.3%	8.8%	-2.5	14
1933-12-31	@ Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1572	1504	8.8%	7.3%	84.0%	+2.5	11
1934-01-07	Real Union	L 2-4	1587	1575	87.4%	6.8%	5.8%	-4.1	5
1934-01-07	@ Alaves	W 4-2	1575	1587	5.8%	6.8%	87.4%	+4.1	14
1934-01-07	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1498	1526	85.8%	7.1%	7.1%	-2.6	11
1934-01-07	@ Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1526	1498	7.1%	7.1%	85.8%	+2.6	22
1934-01-07	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1496	1474	87.8%	6.8%	5.4%	+0.3	15
1934-01-07	@ Real Murcia	L 1-3	1474	1496	5.4%	6.8%	87.8%	-0.3	14
1934-01-07	Osasuna	W 5-1	1502	1494	87.2%	6.9%	5.9%	+0.6	22
1934-01-07	@ Sevilla	L 1-5	1494	1502	5.9%	6.9%	87.2%	-0.6	12
1934-01-07	Sabadell	W 4-3	1501	1521	86.2%	7.0%	6.8%	+0.2	17
1934-01-07	@ Sporting Gijon	L 3-4	1521	1501	6.8%	7.0%	86.2%	-0.2	9
1934-01-14	Real Murcia	D 2-2	1529	1496	88.1%	6.7%	5.2%	-0.5	23
1934-01-14	@ Atletico Madrid	D 2-2	1496	1529	5.2%	6.7%	88.1%	+0.5	16
1934-01-14	Sevilla	W 4-0	1473	1502	85.8%	7.1%	7.1%	+0.9	17
1934-01-14	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-4	1502	1473	7.1%	7.1%	85.8%	-0.9	22
1934-01-14	Sporting Gijon	W 6-0	1494	1501	86.7%	7.0%	6.4%	+1.2	15
1934-01-14	@ Osasuna	L 0-6	1501	1494	6.4%	7.0%	86.7%	-1.1	17
1934-01-14	Deportivo La Coruna	W 2-1	1579	1495	89.7%	6.4%	3.9%	+0.1	17
1934-01-14	@ Real Union	L 1-2	1495	1579	3.9%	6.4%	89.7%	-0.1	11
1934-01-14	Alaves	W 1-0	1521	1583	84.3%	7.2%	8.5%	+0.3	12
1934-01-14	@ Sabadell	L 0-1	1583	1521	8.5%	7.2%	84.3%	-0.3	5
1934-01-21	Osasuna	L 0-2	1583	1495	89.8%	6.3%	3.8%	-5.4	5
1934-01-21	@ Alaves	W 2-0	1495	1583	3.8%	6.3%	89.8%	+5.4	18
1934-01-21	Real Union	W 3-1	1528	1579	84.8%	7.2%	8.0%	+0.5	26
1934-01-21	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1579	1528	8.0%	7.2%	84.8%	-0.5	17
1934-01-21	Sabadell	W 2-0	1495	1521	85.9%	7.0%	7.0%	+0.5	14
1934-01-21	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 0-2	1521	1495	7.0%	7.0%	85.9%	-0.5	12
1934-01-21	Sevilla	W 2-1	1497	1501	86.8%	6.9%	6.3%	+0.2	19
1934-01-21	@ Real Murcia	L 1-2	1501	1497	6.3%	6.9%	86.8%	-0.2	22
1934-01-21	Celta Vigo	W 2-0	1500	1474	87.9%	6.8%	5.3%	+0.3	20
1934-01-21	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-2	1474	1500	5.3%	6.8%	87.9%	-0.3	17
1934-01-28	Alaves	W 8-0	1474	1577	82.1%	7.4%	10.5%	+2.5	20
1934-01-28	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-8	1577	1474	10.5%	7.4%	82.1%	-2.5	5
1934-01-28	Deportivo La Coruna	W 4-1	1500	1495	87.2%	6.9%	6.0%	+0.5	21
1934-01-28	@ Osasuna	L 1-4	1495	1500	6.0%	6.9%	87.2%	-0.5	14
1934-01-28	Real Murcia	L 1-2	1579	1497	89.6%	6.4%	4.0%	-2.7	17
1934-01-28	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1497	1579	4.0%	6.4%	89.6%	+2.7	22
1934-01-28	Atletico Madrid	L 1-2	1521	1529	86.7%	7.0%	6.4%	-2.6	12
1934-01-28	@ Sabadell	W 2-1	1529	1521	6.4%	7.0%	86.7%	+2.6	29
1934-01-28	Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1501	1501	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.2	25
1934-01-28	@ Sevilla	L 1-2	1501	1501	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.2	20
1934-02-04	Osasuna	W 3-1	1531	1501	88.1%	6.7%	5.2%	+0.3	32
1934-02-04	@ Atletico Madrid	L 1-3	1501	1531	5.2%	6.7%	88.1%	-0.3	21
1934-02-04	Celta Vigo	W 4-1	1495	1476	87.6%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.4	17
1934-02-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1476	1495	5.6%	6.8%	87.6%	-0.4	20
1934-02-04	Sporting Gijon	W 3-0	1500	1500	86.9%	6.9%	6.2%	+0.6	25
1934-02-04	@ Real Murcia	L 0-3	1500	1500	6.2%	6.9%	86.9%	-0.6	20
1934-02-04	Sabadell	W 3-2	1576	1518	88.9%	6.6%	4.5%	+0.1	20
1934-02-04	@ Real Union	L 2-3	1518	1576	4.5%	6.6%	88.9%	-0.1	12
1934-02-11	Atletico Madrid	W 4-0	1476	1532	84.6%	7.2%	8.2%	+1.0	23
1934-02-11	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-4	1532	1476	8.2%	7.2%	84.6%	-1.0	32
1934-02-11	Real Union	W 3-0	1501	1576	83.6%	7.3%	9.1%	+0.9	24
1934-02-11	@ Osasuna	L 0-3	1576	1501	9.1%	7.3%	83.6%	-0.9	20
1934-02-11	Real Murcia	W 3-0	1518	1500	87.6%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.5	15
1934-02-11	@ Sabadell	L 0-3	1500	1518	5.6%	6.8%	87.6%	-0.5	25
1934-02-11	Deportivo La Coruna	W 9-0	1501	1495	87.2%	6.9%	5.9%	+1.6	28
1934-02-11	@ Sevilla	L 0-9	1495	1501	5.9%	6.9%	87.2%	-1.6	17
1934-02-11	Alaves	W 1-0	1500	1575	83.7%	7.3%	9.1%	+0.3	23
1934-02-11	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-1	1575	1500	9.1%	7.3%	83.7%	-0.3	5
1934-02-18	Sevilla	L 0-2	1531	1503	88.0%	6.7%	5.3%	-5.3	32
1934-02-18	@ Atletico Madrid	W 2-0	1503	1531	5.3%	6.7%	88.0%	+5.3	31
1934-02-18	Sporting Gijon	W 4-1	1494	1500	86.7%	6.9%	6.3%	+0.5	20
1934-02-18	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-4	1500	1494	6.3%	6.9%	86.7%	-0.5	23
1934-02-18	Alaves	W 6-0	1500	1574	83.7%	7.3%	9.0%	+1.6	28
1934-02-18	@ Real Murcia	L 0-6	1574	1500	9.0%	7.3%	83.7%	-1.6	5
1934-02-18	Celta Vigo	L 1-2	1575	1477	90.1%	6.3%	3.6%	-2.7	20
1934-02-18	@ Real Union	W 2-1	1477	1575	3.6%	6.3%	90.1%	+2.7	26
1934-02-18	Osasuna	W 3-2	1519	1501	87.6%	6.8%	5.6%	+0.2	18
1934-02-18	@ Sabadell	L 2-3	1501	1519	5.6%	6.8%	87.6%	-0.2	24
1934-02-25	Deportivo La Coruna	D 2-2	1573	1494	89.6%	6.4%	4.0%	-0.5	6
1934-02-25	@ Alaves	D 2-2	1494	1573	4.0%	6.4%	89.6%	+0.5	21
1934-02-25	Sabadell	W 6-0	1480	1519	85.4%	7.1%	7.5%	+1.4	29
1934-02-25	@ Celta Vigo	L 0-6	1519	1480	7.5%	7.1%	85.4%	-1.4	18
1934-02-25	Osasuna	W 6-1	1501	1501	87.0%	6.9%	6.1%	+0.8	31
1934-02-25	@ Real Murcia	L 1-6	1501	1501	6.1%	6.9%	87.0%	-0.8	24
1934-02-25	Real Union	W 3-1	1508	1573	84.2%	7.2%	8.6%	+0.5	34
1934-02-25	@ Sevilla	L 1-3	1573	1508	8.6%	7.2%	84.2%	-0.5	20
1934-02-25	Atletico Madrid	W 1-0	1500	1525	85.9%	7.0%	7.0%	+0.2	26
1934-02-25	@ Sporting Gijon	L 0-1	1525	1500	7.0%	7.0%	85.9%	-0.2	32
1934-03-04	Alaves	W 5-0	1525	1572	85.0%	7.2%	7.8%	+1.2	35
1934-03-04	@ Atletico Madrid	L 0-5	1572	1525	7.8%	7.2%	85.0%	-1.2	6
1934-03-04	Real Murcia	W 2-1	1495	1502	86.7%	7.0%	6.4%	+0.2	24
1934-03-04	@ Deportivo La Coruna	L 1-2	1502	1495	6.4%	7.0%	86.7%	-0.2	31
1934-03-04	Celta Vigo	W 3-1	1500	1481	87.7%	6.8%	5.5%	+0.3	27
1934-03-04	@ Osasuna	L 1-3	1481	1500	5.5%	6.8%	87.7%	-0.3	29
1934-03-04	Sporting Gijon	W 2-1	1572	1500	89.4%	6.5%	4.2%	+0.1	23
1934-03-04	@ Real Union	L 1-2	1500	1572	4.2%	6.5%	89.4%	-0.1	26
1934-03-04	Sevilla	D 2-2	1517	1509	87.3%	6.9%	5.9%	-0.5	19
1934-03-04	@ Sabadell	D 2-2	1509	1517	5.9%	6.9%	87.3%	+0.5	35

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1933-12-17	3.54%	Real Murcia	1493	3	@ Alaves	1596	2
2	1934-02-18	3.62%	Celta Vigo	1477	2	@ Real Union	1575	1
3	1933-12-10	3.64%	Sporting Gijon	1501	4	@ Alaves	1598	3
4	1934-01-21	3.84%	Osasuna	1495	2	@ Alaves	1583	0
5	1934-01-28	3.96%	Real Murcia	1497	2	@ Real Union	1579	1
6	1933-12-31	4.17%	Atletico Madrid	1521	5	@ Alaves	1593	2
7	1934-02-18	5.28%	Sevilla	1503	2	@ Atletico Madrid	1531	0
8	1934-01-07	5.75%	Real Union	1575	4	@ Alaves	1587	2
9	1933-11-05	5.99%	Sevilla	1493	3	@ Osasuna	1497	1
10	1934-01-28	6.39%	Atletico Madrid	1529	2	@ Sabadell	1521	1
11	1933-11-12	6.84%	Atletico Madrid	1517	3	@ Real Murcia	1496	2
12	1934-01-07	7.13%	Atletico Madrid	1526	2	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1498	1
13	1933-12-31	8.78%	Real Union	1572	2	@ Sporting Gijon	1504	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1933-12-31	5.72	Atletico Madrid	5	1521	4.17%	@ Alaves	2	1593	89.38%
2	1934-01-21	5.41	Osasuna	2	1495	3.84%	@ Alaves	0	1583	89.81%
3	1934-02-18	5.31	Sevilla	2	1503	5.28%	@ Atletico Madrid	0	1531	87.98%
4	1933-11-05	4.57	Sevilla	3	1493	5.99%	@ Osasuna	1	1497	87.13%
5	1934-01-07	4.10	Real Union	4	1575	5.75%	@ Alaves	2	1587	87.41%
6	1934-02-18	2.72	Celta Vigo	2	1477	3.62%	@ Real Union	1	1575	90.10%
7	1934-01-28	2.70	Real Murcia	2	1497	3.96%	@ Real Union	1	1579	89.65%
8	1934-01-28	2.63	Atletico Madrid	2	1529	6.39%	@ Sabadell	1	1521	86.66%
9	1934-01-07	2.60	Atletico Madrid	2	1526	7.13%	@ Deportivo La Coruna	1	1498	85.81%
10	1933-12-17	2.58	Real Murcia	3	1493	3.54%	@ Alaves	2	1596	90.21%
11	1933-12-31	2.55	Real Union	2	1572	8.78%	@ Sporting Gijon	1	1504	83.96%
12	1933-12-10	2.51	Sporting Gijon	4	1501	3.64%	@ Alaves	3	1598	90.08%
13	1934-01-28	2.49	@ Celta Vigo	8	1474	82.11%	Alaves	0	1577	10.47%
14	1933-11-12	2.47	Atletico Madrid	3	1517	6.84%	@ Real Murcia	2	1496	86.14%
15	1933-11-19	1.72	@ Osasuna	10	1492	81.78%	Alaves	2	1601	10.78%
16	1934-02-18	1.63	@ Real Murcia	6	1500	83.66%	Alaves	0	1574	9.04%
17	1934-02-11	1.58	@ Sevilla	9	1501	87.19%	Deportivo La Coruna	0	1495	5.94%
18	1934-02-25	1.36	@ Celta Vigo	6	1480	85.36%	Sabadell	0	1519	7.52%
19	1933-12-17	1.30	@ Osasuna	6	1493	85.73%	Sabadell	0	1524	7.19%
20	1933-12-03	1.28	@ Sevilla	4	1499	82.27%	Alaves	0	1600	10.33%
21	1934-03-04	1.19	@ Atletico Madrid	5	1525	85.00%	Alaves	0	1572	7.84%
22	1933-11-12	1.15	@ Deportivo La Coruna	4	1496	83.39%	Real Union	0	1576	9.30%
23	1934-01-14	1.15	@ Osasuna	6	1494	86.67%	Sporting Gijon	0	1501	6.38%
24	1934-02-11	1.02	@ Celta Vigo	4	1476	84.59%	Atletico Madrid	0	1532	8.20%
25	1933-12-17	0.98	@ Celta Vigo	3	1472	82.17%	Real Union	0	1574	10.42%