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1933-34 Allsvenskan Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Helsingborg

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Elfsborg

3.56 points above expected

20 points · 16.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Halmia

4.80 points below expected

11 points · 15.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Helsingborg 20 13 1 6 27 49 35 +14 24.80 +2.20
2 GAIS 20 12 2 6 26 54 34 +20 25.04 +0.96
3 Goteborg 20 11 3 6 25 52 38 +14 23.32 +1.68
4 Halmstad 20 9 4 7 22 43 38 +5 21.48 +0.52
5 Orgryte 20 9 3 8 21 38 35 +3 19.33 +1.67
6 Elfsborg 20 7 6 7 20 45 44 +1 16.44 +3.56
7 AIK Stockholm 20 6 6 8 18 40 42 -2 20.45 -2.45
8 Sandvikens IF 20 7 3 10 17 49 57 -8 18.90 -1.90
9 IFK Eskilstuna 20 7 3 10 17 42 52 -10 15.03 +1.97
10 Gefle 20 6 4 10 16 37 56 -19 19.41 -3.41
11 Halmia 20 3 5 12 11 23 41 -18 15.80 -4.80

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Elfsborg 20 16.44 +3.56
2 Helsingborg 27 24.80 +2.20
3 IFK Eskilstuna 17 15.03 +1.97
4 Goteborg 25 23.32 +1.68
5 Orgryte 21 19.33 +1.67

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Halmia 11 15.80 -4.80
2 Gefle 16 19.41 -3.41
3 AIK Stockholm 18 20.45 -2.45
4 Sandvikens IF 17 18.90 -1.90
5 Halmstad 22 21.48 +0.52

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sandvikens IF 4 Jul 30 – Aug 13 1 in 44
2 GAIS 6 Apr 22 – May 21 1 in 43
3 Goteborg 3 Sep 10 – Oct 8 1 in 17
4 AIK Stockholm 2 Apr 29 – May 6 1 in 17
5 Helsingborg 4 Oct 22 – Apr 15 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 AIK Stockholm 5 Aug 13 – Sep 17 1 in 105
2 Sandvikens IF 5 Nov 5 – May 10 1 in 54
3 Halmia 6 Nov 12 – May 21 1 in 42
4 Gefle 4 Jul 30 – Aug 13 1 in 33
5 Helsingborg 2 Sep 3 – Sep 10 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 GAIS 10 Oct 22 – May 21 1 in 29
2 AIK Stockholm 6 Apr 29 – May 21 1 in 25
3 Halmstad 6 Aug 11 – Oct 15 1 in 18
4 Elfsborg 4 Jul 30 – Sep 3 1 in 18
5 Goteborg 5 Aug 20 – Oct 8 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Halmia 12 Sep 17 – May 21 1 in 70
2 AIK Stockholm 6 Aug 13 – Oct 8 1 in 23
3 GAIS 4 Aug 4 – Aug 18 1 in 19
4 Sandvikens IF 6 Oct 29 – May 10 1 in 13
5 Gefle 5 Jul 30 – Aug 20 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Helsingborg 1628 27 -45 4 6.1 -2.1
GAIS 1703 26 +24 10 6.6 +3.4
Goteborg 1609 25 -15 5 5.8 -0.8
Halmstad 1593 22 +18 6 5.9 +0.1
Orgryte 1566 21 -6 4 5.0 -1.0
Elfsborg 1487 20 -14 3 4.1 -1.1
AIK Stockholm 1565 18 +24 7 5.4 +1.6
IFK Eskilstuna 1458 17 +1 4 3.5 +0.5
Sandvikens IF 1489 17 -10 3 4.3 -1.3
Gefle 1512 16 +1 6 4.9 +1.1
Halmia 1414 11 -37 0 3.5 -3.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AS ELF GAI GEF GOT HAL HAL HEL IE ORG SI
AIK Stockholm —
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
2.93
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.35
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
3.56
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.18
Elfsborg
0-1-1
2.47
—
0-0-2
1.75
0-2-0
2.65
0-1-1
1.98
2-0-0
2.93
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
1.54
1-1-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.43
1-0-1
2.43
GAIS
1-0-1
3.53
2-0-0
3.88
—
1-0-1
3.14
1-0-1
3.25
1-0-1
3.72
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.96
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
4.01
Gefle
1-0-1
2.68
0-2-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.48
—
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
3.36
0-0-2
2.48
0-1-1
2.24
0-1-1
3.41
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.90
Goteborg
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
3.64
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-1
3.57
—
1-1-0
3.95
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
2.46
2-0-0
3.59
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
3.44
Halmia
0-1-1
2.27
0-0-2
2.69
1-0-1
1.90
1-0-1
2.26
0-1-1
1.68
—
0-1-1
1.98
0-0-2
1.63
0-0-2
2.92
1-1-0
2.57
0-1-1
2.37
Halmstad
1-1-0
2.94
0-1-1
3.57
0-1-1
2.53
2-0-0
3.14
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
3.64
—
1-0-1
2.21
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
3.45
Helsingborg
1-0-1
3.50
1-0-1
4.09
1-0-1
2.68
1-1-0
3.37
1-0-1
3.16
2-0-0
4.00
1-0-1
3.41
—
2-0-0
4.11
1-0-1
3.76
2-0-0
3.57
IFK Eskilstuna
1-0-1
2.05
0-1-1
2.67
0-1-1
1.67
1-1-0
2.20
0-0-2
2.03
2-0-0
2.69
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
1.52
—
1-0-1
1.95
2-0-0
2.42
Orgryte
1-1-0
2.69
1-0-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.43
0-1-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
1.86
1-0-1
3.67
—
1-1-0
2.41
Sandvikens IF
1-1-0
2.44
1-0-1
3.18
0-0-2
1.62
1-0-1
2.71
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.17
0-0-2
2.04
0-0-2
3.19
0-1-1
3.20
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +4.6
Allowed 0.39 -3.6
Differential 0.91 +3.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.82%3.64%1.36%2.27%1.36%0.45%10.91%
13.64%5.45%8.18%5.45%2.73%1.82%27.27%
21.36%8.18%6.36%5.00%2.27%2.73%25.91%
32.27%5.45%5.00%3.64%1.82%0.91%19.09%
41.36%2.73%2.27%1.82%0.91%0.91%10.00%
5+0.45%1.82%2.73%0.91%0.91%—6.82%
Total10.91%27.27%25.91%19.09%10.00%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.15 2.15 +0.00
SD 1.50 1.50 2.13
CV 0.70 0.70 —
Max 9 9 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%5.00%—5.00%——15.00%
1—10.00%5.00%———15.00%
25.00%—10.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
35.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%—5.00%25.00%
4——10.00%———10.00%
5+———————
Total15.00%20.00%30.00%20.00%5.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.10 -0.10
SD 1.21 1.48 1.71
CV 0.61 0.71 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.00%15.00%10.00%10.00%——40.00%
2—5.00%10.00%—5.00%—20.00%
3—5.00%5.00%—5.00%—15.00%
4—5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%25.00%
5+———————
Total5.00%30.00%30.00%15.00%15.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.25 2.20 +0.05
SD 1.25 1.32 1.39
CV 0.56 0.60 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%————5.00%
1——10.00%5.00%——15.00%
2—15.00%5.00%5.00%——25.00%
310.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%—5.00%35.00%
4———————
5+—10.00%10.00%———20.00%
Total10.00%40.00%30.00%15.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.70 1.70 +1.00
SD 1.45 1.17 1.95
CV 0.54 0.69 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.00%—5.00%
15.00%5.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
2—10.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%40.00%
3——10.00%———10.00%
4———5.00%—5.00%10.00%
5+———————
Total5.00%15.00%30.00%20.00%15.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.85 2.80 -0.95
SD 1.04 1.67 1.79
CV 0.56 0.60 —
Max 4 7 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———5.00%——5.00%
110.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%—30.00%
2—10.00%5.00%—5.00%—20.00%
3—5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%—20.00%
410.00%——5.00%——15.00%
5+——10.00%———10.00%
Total20.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.60 1.90 +0.70
SD 2.01 1.37 2.49
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 9 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%5.00%10.00%10.00%——35.00%
1—5.00%15.00%5.00%——25.00%
2—15.00%—10.00%—5.00%30.00%
3———10.00%——10.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.00%25.00%25.00%35.00%—5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.15 2.05 -0.90
SD 1.04 1.23 1.29
CV 0.90 0.60 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.00%10.00%—5.00%—5.00%25.00%
1——10.00%5.00%——15.00%
2—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
3—10.00%10.00%5.00%——25.00%
4—15.00%——5.00%—20.00%
5+—5.00%————5.00%
Total5.00%45.00%25.00%15.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.15 1.90 +0.25
SD 1.66 1.37 2.36
CV 0.77 0.72 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%——5.00%—10.00%
15.00%—5.00%5.00%5.00%—20.00%
25.00%15.00%5.00%—5.00%—30.00%
3—15.00%5.00%———20.00%
4——5.00%———5.00%
5+—5.00%10.00%———15.00%
Total10.00%40.00%30.00%5.00%15.00%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.75 +0.70
SD 1.76 1.21 2.30
CV 0.72 0.69 —
Max 7 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
1—5.00%—5.00%10.00%5.00%25.00%
25.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%—5.00%40.00%
35.00%———5.00%—10.00%
4—5.00%5.00%———10.00%
5+————5.00%—5.00%
Total10.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%20.00%10.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.10 2.60 -0.50
SD 1.59 2.09 2.59
CV 0.76 0.80 —
Max 7 9 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.00%——5.00%—10.00%
115.00%5.00%20.00%——5.00%45.00%
2——5.00%5.00%——10.00%
35.00%10.00%—5.00%——20.00%
45.00%——5.00%——10.00%
5+———5.00%——5.00%
Total25.00%20.00%25.00%20.00%5.00%5.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.90 1.75 +0.15
SD 1.41 1.45 2.03
CV 0.74 0.83 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 20

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—10.00%5.00%10.00%5.00%5.00%35.00%
2—5.00%—10.00%—10.00%25.00%
3——10.00%5.00%5.00%—20.00%
4—5.00%————5.00%
5+5.00%——5.00%5.00%—15.00%
Total5.00%20.00%15.00%30.00%15.00%15.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 2.85 -0.40
SD 1.54 1.69 2.52
CV 0.63 0.59 —
Max 6 7 +6
Min 1 0 -5

Games Played: 20

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
GAIS 1703 26 25.04 +0.96 68.0% 17 20 22 25 27 32 34
Helsingborg 1628 27 24.80 +2.20 76.0% 16 18 22 25 27 31 34
Goteborg 1609 25 23.32 +1.68 70.0% 14 16 21 23 26 30 32
Halmstad 1593 22 21.48 +0.52 62.0% 12 15 19 22 24 27 29
Orgryte 1566 21 19.33 +1.67 71.0% 9 12 17 20 22 25 28
AIK Stockholm 1565 18 20.45 -2.45 36.0% 13 14 17 21 23 26 32
Gefle 1512 16 19.41 -3.41 20.0% 11 13 17 19 22 25 29
Sandvikens IF 1489 17 18.90 -1.90 41.0% 8 13 16 19 22 24 28
Elfsborg 1487 20 16.44 +3.56 82.0% 9 10 13 16 19 24 28
IFK Eskilstuna 1458 17 15.03 +1.97 77.0% 5 9 13 15 17 22 23
Halmia 1414 11 15.80 -4.80 10.0% 8 11 14 16 18 22 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 12% * Slight Edge: 12% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 19.5% * Strong Edge: 19.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.55%
Slight Edge
48.18%18.18%33.64%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
050.90500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.45 goals
Neutral
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.14 * Comfortable: 0.14 to 0.23 * Runaway: 0.23 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
134510
Champion Preseason Odds
32%
Helsingborg, 1st of 11
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.06 * Some Luck: 3.06 to 4.59 * Lucky: 4.59 to 6.12 * Wild Swing: 6.12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.6 * Close: 1.6 to 2.4 * Off: 2.4 to 3.2 * Way Off: 3.2 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 11 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 11 * As Expected: 11 to 17.6 * Several Outliers: 17.6 to 24.2 * Many Outliers: 24.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.57 points
As Expected
03.8310
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.45
Pinpoint
02.004
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.45%
82.00%
Elfsborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.55%
10.00%
Halmia
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 11
Minimal Outliers
01.111

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.18 * Lopsided: 0.18 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.65 * Strong Separation: 1.65 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63% * Slight Edge: 63% to 66.5% * Clear Edge: 66.5% to 71.5% * Wide Edge: 71.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 83.5% * Clear Edge: 83.5% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 90.5% * Dominant: 90.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53% * Some Drama: 53% to 58.5% * Frequent: 58.5% to 62.5% * Very Frequent: 62.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 84.55
1.20
Coin-Flip Parity
0.951.41.652.75
Interquartile Edge
66%
Slight Edge
50%63%71.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Clear Edge
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Very Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.3 * Slight Separation: 0.3 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.4 * Lopsided: 0.4 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.53 * Strong Carryover: 0.53 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 22.5% * As Expected: 22.5% to 25% * Upset-Prone: 25% to 28% * Very Upset-Prone: 28% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Shaky Favorites: 21.5% to 24% * Very Shaky: 24% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Slight Separation
00.30.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.49
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.60
Strong Carryover
00.380.530.691
Upset Rate
Expected
30%
Very Upset-Prone
0%28%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.67
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.83
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.053
Well Within Noise
00.1420.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team1234567891011
Helsingborg32.00%21.00%17.00%9.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%——
GAIS28.00%26.00%18.00%10.00%9.00%5.00%3.00%—1.00%——
Goteborg23.00%11.00%19.00%12.00%10.00%7.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Halmstad4.00%14.00%13.00%17.00%10.00%16.00%9.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%
Orgryte2.00%2.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%17.00%19.00%11.00%7.00%5.00%5.00%
Elfsborg2.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%6.00%7.00%16.00%15.00%14.00%27.00%
AIK Stockholm4.00%13.00%9.00%15.00%11.00%11.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%8.00%2.00%
Sandvikens IF—7.00%7.00%10.00%10.00%16.00%13.00%11.00%11.00%11.00%4.00%
IFK Eskilstuna———4.00%5.00%3.00%10.00%9.00%12.00%28.00%29.00%
Gefle5.00%3.00%7.00%9.00%14.00%10.00%10.00%17.00%8.00%8.00%9.00%
Halmia———3.00%3.00%3.00%7.00%13.00%28.00%22.00%21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
GAIS 100% —
Helsingborg 100% —
Goteborg 99.00% 1.00%
AIK Stockholm 98.00% 2.00%
Halmstad 98.00% 2.00%
Sandvikens IF 96.00% 4.00%
Orgryte 95.00% 5.00%
Gefle 91.00% 9.00%
Halmia 79.00% 21.00%
Elfsborg 73.00% 27.00%
IFK Eskilstuna 71.00% 29.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1933-07-30 AIK Stockholm D 2-272.4 1592 1581 52.74% 19.20% 28.07%+0.35 -0.8 1
1933-07-30 @ Halmstad D 2-272.4 1581 1592 28.07% 19.20% 52.74%-0.35 +0.8 1
1933-07-30 Gefle W 5-148.4 1625 1592 55.43% 19.13% 25.44%+0.48 +15.3 2
1933-07-30 @ Helsingborg L 1-548.4 1592 1625 25.44% 19.13% 55.43%-0.48 -15.3 0
1933-07-30 Elfsborg D 1-159.4 1457 1459 51.22% 19.23% 29.55%+0.28 -0.9 1
1933-07-30 @ IFK Eskilstuna D 1-159.4 1459 1457 29.55% 19.23% 51.22%-0.28 +0.9 1
1933-07-30 Halmia D 3-371.6 1526 1486 56.26% 19.10% 24.64%+0.52 -0.8 1
1933-07-30 @ Orgryte D 3-371.6 1486 1526 24.64% 19.10% 56.26%-0.52 +0.8 1
1933-07-30 Goteborg W 4-149.9 1498 1574 41.26% 19.27% 39.47%-0.14 +17.1 2
1933-07-30 @ Sandvikens IF L 1-449.9 1574 1498 39.47% 19.27% 41.26%+0.14 -17.1 0
1933-08-04 Goteborg L 0-161.8 1634 1557 60.16% 18.94% 20.90%+0.73 -10.8 0
1933-08-04 @ GAIS W 1-061.8 1557 1634 20.90% 18.94% 60.16%-0.73 +10.8 2
1933-08-06 Gefle W 4-256.5 1582 1576 52.16% 19.21% 28.63%+0.33 +8.3 3
1933-08-06 @ AIK Stockholm L 2-456.5 1576 1582 28.63% 19.21% 52.16%-0.33 -8.3 0
1933-08-06 IFK Eskilstuna D 2-269.8 1623 1457 68.05% 18.33% 13.61%+1.25 -1.8 1
1933-08-06 @ GAIS D 2-269.8 1457 1623 13.61% 18.33% 68.05%-1.25 +1.8 2
1933-08-06 Helsingborg L 1-254.9 1487 1640 30.71% 19.09% 50.20%-0.59 -5.7 1
1933-08-06 @ Halmia W 2-154.9 1640 1487 50.20% 19.09% 30.71%+0.59 +5.7 4
1933-08-06 Halmstad W 6-046.4 1515 1591 41.28% 19.27% 39.44%-0.14 +38.7 4
1933-08-06 @ Sandvikens IF L 0-646.4 1591 1515 39.44% 19.27% 41.28%+0.14 -38.7 1
1933-08-09 Sandvikens IF L 2-366.1 1568 1554 53.18% 19.19% 27.64%+0.37 -8.5 0
1933-08-09 @ Gefle W 3-266.1 1554 1568 27.64% 19.19% 53.18%-0.37 +8.6 6
1933-08-11 Orgryte W 4-040.2 1568 1525 56.49% 19.09% 24.41%+0.54 +17.7 4
1933-08-11 @ Goteborg L 0-440.2 1525 1568 24.41% 19.09% 56.49%-0.54 -17.7 1
1933-08-11 Halmia D 0-061.0 1552 1481 59.61% 18.97% 21.43%+0.70 -1.8 2
1933-08-11 @ Halmstad D 0-061.0 1481 1552 21.43% 18.97% 59.61%-0.70 +1.8 2
1933-08-13 Halmstad L 1-359.4 1585 1550 55.65% 19.12% 25.23%+0.49 -16.3 4
1933-08-13 @ Goteborg W 3-159.4 1550 1585 25.23% 19.12% 55.65%-0.49 +16.3 4
1933-08-13 Orgryte W 2-150.7 1483 1508 48.26% 19.26% 32.48%+0.15 +6.0 4
1933-08-13 @ Halmia L 1-250.7 1508 1483 32.48% 19.26% 48.26%-0.15 -5.9 1
1933-08-13 GAIS W 3-153.6 1646 1621 54.44% 19.16% 26.40%+0.43 +8.6 6
1933-08-13 @ Helsingborg L 1-353.6 1621 1646 26.40% 19.16% 54.44%-0.43 -8.6 1
1933-08-13 Gefle W 7-456.6 1458 1560 37.64% 19.24% 43.12%-0.29 +14.0 4
1933-08-13 @ IFK Eskilstuna L 4-756.6 1560 1458 43.12% 19.24% 37.64%+0.29 -14.0 0
1933-08-13 AIK Stockholm W 5-360.8 1563 1590 47.88% 19.27% 32.85%+0.13 +8.8 8
1933-08-13 @ Sandvikens IF L 3-560.8 1590 1563 32.85% 19.27% 47.88%-0.13 -8.8 3
1933-08-18 GAIS W 5-363.2 1502 1612 36.32% 19.22% 44.46%-0.34 +11.2 3
1933-08-18 @ Orgryte L 3-563.2 1612 1502 44.46% 19.22% 36.32%+0.34 -11.3 1
1933-08-20 Goteborg L 2-366.9 1582 1569 52.99% 19.19% 27.82%+0.36 -8.5 3
1933-08-20 @ AIK Stockholm W 3-266.9 1569 1582 27.82% 19.19% 52.99%-0.36 +8.5 6
1933-08-20 Helsingborg D 2-273.0 1546 1654 36.59% 19.22% 44.18%-0.33 +0.2 1
1933-08-20 @ Gefle D 2-273.0 1654 1546 44.18% 19.22% 36.59%+0.33 -0.2 7
1933-08-20 Elfsborg L 1-255.8 1489 1460 54.90% 19.14% 25.95%+0.46 -9.3 4
1933-08-20 @ Halmia W 2-155.8 1460 1489 25.95% 19.14% 54.90%-0.46 +9.3 3
1933-08-20 Halmstad L 2-358.9 1472 1567 38.61% 19.25% 42.14%-0.25 -6.5 4
1933-08-20 @ IFK Eskilstuna W 3-258.9 1567 1472 42.14% 19.25% 38.61%+0.25 +6.5 6
1933-08-20 Sandvikens IF D 1-165.5 1513 1571 43.68% 19.28% 37.04%-0.04 -0.3 4
1933-08-20 @ Orgryte D 1-165.5 1571 1513 37.04% 19.28% 43.68%+0.04 +0.3 9
1933-08-27 Goteborg D 2-268.4 1469 1578 36.68% 19.22% 44.09%-0.33 +0.2 4
1933-08-27 @ Elfsborg D 2-268.4 1578 1469 44.09% 19.22% 36.68%+0.33 -0.2 7
1933-08-27 Halmia W 5-247.3 1601 1479 64.43% 18.67% 16.90%+0.99 +7.1 3
1933-08-27 @ GAIS L 2-547.3 1479 1601 16.90% 18.67% 64.43%-0.99 -7.1 4
1933-08-27 AIK Stockholm W 2-155.3 1546 1573 47.93% 19.27% 32.80%+0.14 +6.0 3
1933-08-27 @ Gefle L 1-255.3 1573 1546 32.80% 19.27% 47.93%-0.14 -6.0 3
1933-08-27 IFK Eskilstuna W 4-142.2 1573 1466 63.13% 18.76% 18.10%+0.91 +8.8 8
1933-08-27 @ Halmstad L 1-442.2 1466 1573 18.10% 18.76% 63.13%-0.91 -8.8 4
1933-08-27 Sandvikens IF W 7-249.0 1654 1572 60.74% 18.91% 20.35%+0.77 +12.9 9
1933-08-27 @ Helsingborg L 2-749.0 1572 1654 20.35% 18.91% 60.74%-0.77 -12.9 9
1933-09-03 Helsingborg W 4-263.9 1470 1667 25.52% 18.88% 55.60%-0.84 +14.5 6
1933-09-03 @ Elfsborg L 2-463.9 1667 1470 55.60% 18.88% 25.52%+0.84 -14.5 9
1933-09-03 Gefle W 2-154.2 1472 1552 40.72% 19.27% 40.01%-0.16 +7.0 6
1933-09-03 @ Halmia L 1-254.2 1552 1472 40.01% 19.27% 40.72%+0.16 -7.0 3
1933-09-03 AIK Stockholm W 4-256.8 1457 1567 36.44% 19.22% 44.34%-0.34 +11.9 6
1933-09-03 @ IFK Eskilstuna L 2-456.8 1567 1457 44.34% 19.22% 36.44%+0.34 -11.9 3
1933-09-03 Orgryte L 1-357.7 1559 1513 56.92% 19.08% 24.00%+0.56 -16.6 9
1933-09-03 @ Sandvikens IF W 3-157.7 1513 1559 24.00% 19.08% 56.92%-0.56 +16.6 6
1933-09-10 GAIS W 2-158.5 1479 1608 33.87% 19.17% 46.96%-0.45 +8.1 8
1933-09-10 @ Halmia L 1-258.5 1608 1479 46.96% 19.17% 33.87%+0.45 -8.0 3
1933-09-10 Goteborg L 0-162.6 1652 1577 60.00% 18.95% 21.05%+0.72 -10.7 9
1933-09-10 @ Helsingborg W 1-062.6 1577 1652 21.05% 18.95% 60.00%-0.72 +10.7 9
1933-09-10 Elfsborg W 4-357.6 1529 1484 56.79% 19.08% 24.12%+0.55 +4.3 8
1933-09-10 @ Orgryte L 3-457.6 1484 1529 24.12% 19.08% 56.79%-0.55 -4.3 6
1933-09-17 Helsingborg L 2-557.6 1555 1642 39.71% 19.26% 41.03%-0.20 -14.9 3
1933-09-17 @ AIK Stockholm W 5-257.6 1642 1555 41.03% 19.26% 39.71%+0.20 +14.9 11
1933-09-17 Sandvikens IF W 4-362.0 1480 1542 43.16% 19.28% 37.56%-0.07 +6.2 8
1933-09-17 @ Elfsborg L 3-462.0 1542 1480 37.56% 19.28% 43.16%+0.07 -6.2 9
1933-09-17 Gefle L 1-263.6 1600 1545 57.94% 19.04% 23.02%+0.61 -9.8 3
1933-09-17 @ GAIS W 2-163.6 1545 1600 23.02% 19.04% 57.94%-0.61 +9.8 5
1933-09-17 Halmia W 3-038.7 1469 1487 49.10% 19.26% 31.64%+0.19 +16.9 8
1933-09-17 @ IFK Eskilstuna L 0-338.7 1487 1469 31.64% 19.26% 49.10%-0.19 -16.9 8
1933-10-01 GAIS L 2-558.4 1554 1590 46.77% 19.27% 33.95%+0.09 -17.0 5
1933-10-01 @ Gefle W 5-258.4 1590 1554 33.95% 19.27% 46.77%-0.09 +17.0 5
1933-10-01 IFK Eskilstuna W 4-358.0 1588 1486 62.66% 18.80% 18.55%+0.88 +3.4 11
1933-10-01 @ Goteborg L 3-458.0 1486 1588 18.55% 18.80% 62.66%-0.88 -3.4 8
1933-10-01 Elfsborg D 4-477.0 1582 1486 62.05% 18.83% 19.12%+0.84 -1.0 9
1933-10-01 @ Halmstad D 4-477.0 1486 1582 19.12% 18.83% 62.05%-0.84 +1.0 9
1933-10-01 Orgryte W 2-152.3 1657 1534 64.54% 18.66% 16.80%+1.00 +3.3 13
1933-10-01 @ Helsingborg L 1-252.3 1534 1657 16.80% 18.66% 64.54%-1.00 -3.3 8
1933-10-01 Halmia W 3-252.7 1536 1470 59.01% 18.99% 22.00%+0.67 +4.0 11
1933-10-01 @ Sandvikens IF L 2-352.7 1470 1536 22.00% 18.99% 59.01%-0.67 -4.0 8
1933-10-08 GAIS L 1-352.0 1487 1607 35.02% 19.20% 45.79%-0.40 -11.0 9
1933-10-08 @ Elfsborg W 3-152.0 1607 1487 45.79% 19.20% 35.02%+0.40 +11.0 7
1933-10-08 AIK Stockholm D 0-059.9 1466 1540 41.53% 19.27% 39.20%-0.13 -0.1 9
1933-10-08 @ Halmia D 0-059.9 1540 1466 39.20% 19.27% 41.53%+0.13 +0.1 4
1933-10-08 Goteborg L 2-949.2 1483 1591 36.57% 19.22% 44.21%-0.33 -28.5 8
1933-10-08 @ IFK Eskilstuna W 9-249.2 1591 1483 44.21% 19.22% 36.57%+0.33 +28.5 13
1933-10-08 Gefle W 3-149.6 1530 1537 50.54% 19.24% 30.22%+0.25 +9.7 10
1933-10-08 @ Orgryte L 1-349.6 1537 1530 30.22% 19.24% 50.54%-0.25 -9.7 5
1933-10-08 Helsingborg L 1-354.9 1540 1660 35.08% 19.20% 45.72%-0.40 -11.0 11
1933-10-08 @ Sandvikens IF W 3-154.9 1660 1540 45.72% 19.20% 35.08%+0.40 +11.0 15
1933-10-15 AIK Stockholm L 2-369.2 1618 1540 60.30% 18.93% 20.76%+0.74 -9.6 7
1933-10-15 @ GAIS W 3-269.2 1540 1618 20.76% 18.93% 60.30%-0.74 +9.6 6
1933-10-15 Orgryte W 1-049.5 1528 1540 49.91% 19.25% 30.85%+0.22 +6.0 7
1933-10-15 @ Gefle L 0-149.5 1540 1528 30.85% 19.25% 49.91%-0.22 -6.0 10
1933-10-15 Halmstad L 1-461.2 1671 1581 61.48% 18.87% 19.65%+0.81 -25.4 15
1933-10-15 @ Helsingborg W 4-161.2 1581 1671 19.65% 18.87% 61.48%-0.81 +25.4 11
1933-10-15 Sandvikens IF W 4-146.6 1454 1529 41.36% 19.27% 39.37%-0.14 +17.0 10
1933-10-15 @ IFK Eskilstuna L 1-446.6 1529 1454 39.37% 19.27% 41.36%+0.14 -17.0 11
1933-10-22 Orgryte D 2-269.7 1550 1534 53.44% 19.18% 27.38%+0.39 -0.8 7
1933-10-22 @ AIK Stockholm D 2-269.7 1534 1550 27.38% 19.18% 53.44%-0.39 +0.8 11
1933-10-22 Halmia W 3-252.4 1534 1466 59.21% 18.99% 21.81%+0.68 +4.0 9
1933-10-22 @ Gefle L 2-352.4 1466 1534 21.81% 18.99% 59.21%-0.68 -4.0 9
1933-10-22 Helsingborg L 2-464.6 1620 1645 48.17% 19.26% 32.57%+0.15 -12.8 13
1933-10-22 @ Goteborg W 4-264.6 1645 1620 32.57% 19.26% 48.17%-0.15 +12.8 17
1933-10-22 GAIS L 0-352.9 1606 1609 51.14% 19.23% 29.63%+0.28 -25.3 11
1933-10-22 @ Halmstad W 3-052.9 1609 1606 29.63% 19.23% 51.14%-0.28 +25.3 9
1933-10-22 Elfsborg W 5-459.3 1512 1476 55.75% 19.12% 25.13%+0.50 +4.4 13
1933-10-22 @ Sandvikens IF L 4-559.3 1476 1512 25.13% 19.12% 55.75%-0.50 -4.4 9
1933-10-29 Halmstad W 3-153.3 1472 1581 36.53% 19.22% 44.25%-0.33 +13.3 11
1933-10-29 @ Elfsborg L 1-353.3 1581 1472 44.25% 19.22% 36.53%+0.33 -13.3 11
1933-10-29 Sandvikens IF D 3-370.3 1462 1516 44.31% 19.28% 36.41%-0.02 -0.2 10
1933-10-29 @ Halmia D 3-370.3 1516 1462 36.41% 19.28% 44.31%+0.02 +0.2 14
1933-10-29 GAIS L 1-546.6 1471 1634 29.52% 19.05% 51.43%-0.64 -17.3 10
1933-10-29 @ IFK Eskilstuna W 5-146.6 1634 1471 51.43% 19.05% 29.52%+0.64 +17.3 11
1933-10-29 AIK Stockholm W 1-050.1 1535 1549 49.60% 19.25% 31.15%+0.21 +6.1 13
1933-10-29 @ Orgryte L 0-150.1 1549 1535 31.15% 19.25% 49.60%-0.21 -6.1 7
1933-11-05 Halmstad L 2-364.3 1543 1568 48.28% 19.26% 32.45%+0.15 -7.8 7
1933-11-05 @ AIK Stockholm W 3-264.3 1568 1543 32.45% 19.26% 48.28%-0.15 +7.8 13
1933-11-05 Orgryte W 3-257.9 1485 1541 44.08% 19.28% 36.64%-0.03 +6.2 13
1933-11-05 @ Elfsborg L 2-357.9 1541 1485 36.64% 19.28% 44.08%+0.03 -6.2 13
1933-11-05 Sandvikens IF W 5-144.2 1651 1517 65.55% 18.58% 15.87%+1.07 +10.0 13
1933-11-05 @ GAIS L 1-544.2 1517 1651 15.87% 18.58% 65.55%-1.07 -10.0 14
1933-11-05 Goteborg D 1-165.0 1462 1607 31.77% 19.12% 49.11%-0.54 +0.7 11
1933-11-05 @ Halmia D 1-165.0 1607 1462 49.11% 19.12% 31.77%+0.54 -0.7 14
1933-11-05 IFK Eskilstuna W 3-145.1 1658 1454 70.75% 17.99% 11.26%+1.47 +4.0 19
1933-11-05 @ Helsingborg L 1-345.1 1454 1658 11.26% 17.99% 70.75%-1.47 -4.0 10
1933-11-12 Halmia W 3-037.1 1535 1463 59.73% 18.96% 21.31%+0.71 +12.0 9
1933-11-12 @ AIK Stockholm L 0-337.1 1463 1535 21.31% 18.96% 59.73%-0.71 -12.0 11
1933-11-12 Sandvikens IF W 5-248.9 1606 1507 62.44% 18.81% 18.75%+0.87 +7.8 16
1933-11-12 @ Goteborg L 2-548.9 1507 1606 18.75% 18.81% 62.44%-0.87 -7.8 14
1933-11-12 Gefle W 4-146.9 1576 1538 55.98% 19.11% 24.91%+0.51 +11.6 15
1933-11-12 @ Halmstad L 1-446.9 1538 1576 24.91% 19.11% 55.98%-0.51 -11.6 9
1934-04-02 Elfsborg W 2-149.9 1614 1491 64.54% 18.66% 16.80%+1.00 +3.3 18
1934-04-02 @ Goteborg L 1-249.9 1491 1614 16.80% 18.66% 64.54%-1.00 -3.3 13
1934-04-02 Helsingborg L 0-157.5 1587 1662 41.36% 19.27% 39.37%-0.14 -7.7 15
1934-04-02 @ Halmstad W 1-057.5 1662 1587 39.37% 19.27% 41.36%+0.14 +7.7 21
1934-04-08 IFK Eskilstuna W 4-140.6 1488 1450 56.02% 19.11% 24.87%+0.51 +11.6 15
1934-04-08 @ Elfsborg L 1-440.6 1450 1488 24.87% 19.11% 56.02%-0.51 -11.6 10
1934-04-08 Halmstad D 3-378.4 1661 1580 60.69% 18.91% 20.40%+0.76 -1.1 14
1934-04-08 @ GAIS D 3-378.4 1580 1661 20.40% 18.91% 60.69%-0.76 +1.1 16
1934-04-15 Gefle W 4-040.2 1618 1526 61.64% 18.86% 19.50%+0.82 +14.5 20
1934-04-15 @ Goteborg L 0-440.2 1526 1618 19.50% 18.86% 61.64%-0.82 -14.5 9
1934-04-15 IFK Eskilstuna L 0-245.8 1451 1438 53.01% 19.19% 27.80%+0.37 -18.0 11
1934-04-15 @ Halmia W 2-045.8 1438 1451 27.80% 19.19% 53.01%-0.37 +18.0 12
1934-04-15 Elfsborg W 2-150.6 1670 1500 68.36% 18.30% 13.34%+1.27 +2.7 23
1934-04-15 @ Helsingborg L 1-250.6 1500 1670 13.34% 18.30% 68.36%-1.27 -2.7 15
1934-04-22 GAIS L 0-348.2 1547 1660 36.01% 19.21% 44.78%-0.36 -18.8 9
1934-04-22 @ AIK Stockholm W 3-048.2 1660 1547 44.78% 19.21% 36.01%+0.36 +18.8 16
1934-04-22 Halmia W 1-041.7 1497 1433 58.85% 19.00% 22.14%+0.66 +4.5 17
1934-04-22 @ Elfsborg L 0-141.7 1433 1497 22.14% 19.00% 58.85%-0.66 -4.5 11
1934-04-22 IFK Eskilstuna D 2-265.5 1512 1456 57.94% 19.04% 23.02%+0.61 -1.1 10
1934-04-22 @ Gefle D 2-265.5 1456 1512 23.02% 19.04% 57.94%-0.61 +1.1 13
1934-04-22 Helsingborg W 4-050.5 1535 1673 32.67% 19.14% 48.19%-0.50 +31.3 15
1934-04-22 @ Orgryte L 0-450.5 1673 1535 48.19% 19.14% 32.67%+0.50 -31.3 23
1934-04-27 GAIS L 1-263.1 1632 1679 45.28% 19.28% 35.44%+0.02 -7.8 20
1934-04-27 @ Goteborg W 2-163.1 1679 1632 35.44% 19.28% 45.28%-0.02 +7.8 18
1934-04-29 AIK Stockholm L 2-458.1 1501 1529 47.96% 19.27% 32.77%+0.14 -12.7 17
1934-04-29 @ Elfsborg W 4-258.1 1529 1501 32.77% 19.27% 47.96%-0.14 +12.7 11
1934-04-29 Halmia W 3-143.2 1624 1428 70.18% 18.07% 11.74%+1.42 +4.1 22
1934-04-29 @ Goteborg L 1-343.2 1428 1624 11.74% 18.07% 70.18%-1.42 -4.1 11
1934-04-29 Helsingborg L 2-357.4 1457 1641 27.01% 18.95% 54.04%-0.77 -4.8 13
1934-04-29 @ IFK Eskilstuna W 3-257.4 1641 1457 54.04% 18.95% 27.01%+0.77 +4.8 25
1934-04-29 Halmstad W 1-052.1 1566 1581 49.57% 19.25% 31.18%+0.21 +6.1 17
1934-04-29 @ Orgryte L 0-152.1 1581 1566 31.18% 19.25% 49.57%-0.21 -6.1 16
1934-04-29 Gefle L 2-361.2 1499 1511 49.95% 19.25% 30.80%+0.22 -8.1 14
1934-04-29 @ Sandvikens IF W 3-261.2 1511 1499 30.80% 19.25% 49.95%-0.22 +8.1 12
1934-05-04 Goteborg W 3-048.2 1572 1628 43.95% 19.28% 36.77%-0.03 +19.1 19
1934-05-04 @ Orgryte L 0-348.2 1628 1572 36.77% 19.28% 43.95%+0.03 -19.1 22
1934-05-06 Elfsborg D 1-162.7 1519 1489 55.07% 19.14% 25.79%+0.46 -1.2 13
1934-05-06 @ Gefle D 1-162.7 1489 1519 25.79% 19.14% 55.07%-0.46 +1.2 18
1934-05-06 Goteborg L 1-261.3 1575 1609 46.93% 19.27% 33.80%+0.09 -8.1 16
1934-05-06 @ Halmstad W 2-161.3 1609 1575 33.80% 19.27% 46.93%-0.09 +8.1 24
1934-05-06 AIK Stockholm L 1-362.9 1646 1541 62.91% 18.78% 18.31%+0.90 -18.3 25
1934-05-06 @ Helsingborg W 3-162.9 1541 1646 18.31% 18.78% 62.91%-0.90 +18.3 13
1934-05-06 IFK Eskilstuna L 1-262.5 1591 1452 65.87% 18.55% 15.58%+1.09 -11.1 19
1934-05-06 @ Orgryte W 2-162.5 1452 1591 15.58% 18.55% 65.87%-1.09 +11.1 15
1934-05-06 GAIS L 2-359.3 1491 1687 25.63% 18.88% 55.49%-0.84 -4.6 14
1934-05-06 @ Sandvikens IF W 3-259.3 1687 1491 55.49% 18.88% 25.63%+0.84 +4.6 20
1934-05-10 Elfsborg D 1-164.3 1560 1490 59.44% 18.97% 21.58%+0.69 -1.6 14
1934-05-10 @ AIK Stockholm D 1-164.3 1490 1560 21.58% 18.97% 59.44%-0.69 +1.6 19
1934-05-10 Helsingborg W 2-156.2 1692 1628 58.82% 19.00% 22.18%+0.66 +4.3 22
1934-05-10 @ GAIS L 1-256.2 1628 1692 22.18% 19.00% 58.82%-0.66 -4.3 25
1934-05-10 Halmstad L 1-354.6 1517 1566 44.99% 19.28% 35.73%+0.01 -13.5 13
1934-05-10 @ Gefle W 3-154.6 1566 1517 35.73% 19.28% 44.99%-0.01 +13.5 18
1934-05-10 IFK Eskilstuna L 1-255.6 1486 1464 54.20% 19.16% 26.64%+0.42 -9.2 14
1934-05-10 @ Sandvikens IF W 2-155.6 1464 1486 26.64% 19.16% 54.20%-0.42 +9.2 17
1934-05-13 Gefle D 2-266.5 1492 1504 49.87% 19.25% 30.88%+0.22 -0.6 20
1934-05-13 @ Elfsborg D 2-266.5 1504 1492 30.88% 19.25% 49.87%-0.22 +0.6 14
1934-05-13 AIK Stockholm D 3-377.0 1617 1558 58.36% 19.02% 22.61%+0.63 -0.9 25
1934-05-13 @ Goteborg D 3-377.0 1558 1617 22.61% 19.02% 58.36%-0.63 +0.9 15
1934-05-13 Sandvikens IF L 1-262.1 1580 1477 62.74% 18.79% 18.47%+0.88 -10.6 18
1934-05-13 @ Halmstad W 2-162.1 1477 1580 18.47% 18.79% 62.74%-0.88 +10.6 16
1934-05-13 Orgryte L 0-150.7 1473 1580 36.81% 19.23% 43.97%-0.32 -7.0 17
1934-05-13 @ IFK Eskilstuna W 1-050.7 1580 1473 43.97% 19.23% 36.81%+0.32 +7.0 21
1934-05-18 IFK Eskilstuna W 2-040.4 1559 1466 61.80% 18.85% 19.35%+0.83 +7.6 17
1934-05-18 @ AIK Stockholm L 0-240.4 1466 1559 19.35% 18.85% 61.80%-0.83 -7.6 17
1934-05-18 Orgryte W 2-154.4 1696 1587 63.28% 18.75% 17.97%+0.92 +3.5 24
1934-05-18 @ GAIS L 1-254.4 1587 1696 17.97% 18.75% 63.28%-0.92 -3.6 21
1934-05-18 Halmstad L 1-250.5 1424 1569 31.75% 19.12% 49.13%-0.54 -5.8 11
1934-05-18 @ Halmia W 2-150.5 1569 1424 49.13% 19.12% 31.75%+0.54 +5.8 20
1934-05-21 Sandvikens IF D 1-164.5 1567 1487 60.41% 18.93% 20.66%+0.75 -1.7 18
1934-05-21 @ AIK Stockholm D 1-164.5 1487 1567 20.66% 18.93% 60.41%-0.75 +1.7 17
1934-05-21 Elfsborg W 3-147.1 1699 1491 71.00% 17.96% 11.04%+1.49 +3.9 26
1934-05-21 @ GAIS L 1-347.1 1491 1699 11.04% 17.96% 71.00%-1.49 -3.9 20
1934-05-21 Goteborg W 4-367.5 1505 1616 36.15% 19.22% 44.63%-0.35 +7.1 16
1934-05-21 @ Gefle L 3-467.5 1616 1505 44.63% 19.22% 36.15%+0.35 -7.1 25
1934-05-21 Orgryte W 5-148.5 1575 1583 50.42% 19.24% 30.34%+0.25 +17.8 22
1934-05-21 @ Halmstad L 1-548.5 1583 1575 30.34% 19.24% 50.42%-0.25 -17.8 21
1934-05-21 Halmia W 2-038.4 1624 1418 70.79% 17.99% 11.22%+1.47 +4.6 27
1934-05-21 @ Helsingborg L 0-238.4 1418 1624 11.22% 17.99% 70.79%-1.47 -4.6 11

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1934-05-06 15.58% IFK Eskilstuna 1452 2 @ Orgryte 1591 1
2 1934-05-06 18.31% AIK Stockholm 1541 3 @ Helsingborg 1646 1
3 1934-05-13 18.47% Sandvikens IF 1477 2 @ Halmstad 1580 1
4 1933-10-15 19.65% Halmstad 1581 4 @ Helsingborg 1671 1
5 1933-10-15 20.76% AIK Stockholm 1540 3 @ GAIS 1618 2
6 1933-08-04 20.90% Goteborg 1557 1 @ GAIS 1634 0
7 1933-09-10 21.05% Goteborg 1577 1 @ Helsingborg 1652 0
8 1933-09-17 23.02% Gefle 1545 2 @ GAIS 1600 1
9 1933-09-03 24.00% Orgryte 1513 3 @ Sandvikens IF 1559 1
10 1933-08-13 25.23% Halmstad 1550 3 @ Goteborg 1585 1
11 1933-09-03 25.52% @ Elfsborg 1470 4 Helsingborg 1667 2
12 1933-08-20 25.95% Elfsborg 1460 2 @ Halmia 1489 1
13 1934-05-10 26.64% IFK Eskilstuna 1464 2 @ Sandvikens IF 1486 1
14 1933-08-09 27.64% Sandvikens IF 1554 3 @ Gefle 1568 2
15 1934-04-15 27.80% IFK Eskilstuna 1438 2 @ Halmia 1451 0
16 1933-08-20 27.82% Goteborg 1569 3 @ AIK Stockholm 1582 2
17 1933-10-22 29.63% GAIS 1609 3 @ Halmstad 1606 0
18 1934-04-29 30.80% Gefle 1511 3 @ Sandvikens IF 1499 2
19 1933-11-05 32.45% Halmstad 1568 3 @ AIK Stockholm 1543 2
20 1933-10-22 32.57% Helsingborg 1645 4 @ Goteborg 1620 2
21 1934-04-22 32.67% @ Orgryte 1535 4 Helsingborg 1673 0
22 1934-04-29 32.77% AIK Stockholm 1529 4 @ Elfsborg 1501 2
23 1934-05-06 33.80% Goteborg 1609 2 @ Halmstad 1575 1
24 1933-09-10 33.87% @ Halmia 1479 2 GAIS 1608 1
25 1933-10-01 33.95% GAIS 1590 5 @ Gefle 1554 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1933-08-06 38.72 @ Sandvikens IF 6 1515 41.28% Halmstad 0 1591 39.44% 19.27%
2 1934-04-22 31.26 @ Orgryte 4 1535 32.67% Helsingborg 0 1673 48.19% 19.14%
3 1933-10-08 28.48 Goteborg 9 1591 44.21% @ IFK Eskilstuna 2 1483 36.57% 19.22%
4 1933-10-15 25.36 Halmstad 4 1581 19.65% @ Helsingborg 1 1671 61.48% 18.87%
5 1933-10-22 25.27 GAIS 3 1609 29.63% @ Halmstad 0 1606 51.14% 19.23%
6 1934-05-04 19.13 @ Orgryte 3 1572 43.95% Goteborg 0 1628 36.77% 19.28%
7 1934-04-22 18.79 GAIS 3 1660 44.78% @ AIK Stockholm 0 1547 36.01% 19.21%
8 1934-05-06 18.34 AIK Stockholm 3 1541 18.31% @ Helsingborg 1 1646 62.91% 18.78%
9 1934-04-15 17.98 IFK Eskilstuna 2 1438 27.80% @ Halmia 0 1451 53.01% 19.19%
10 1934-05-21 17.76 @ Halmstad 5 1575 50.42% Orgryte 1 1583 30.34% 19.24%
11 1933-08-11 17.70 @ Goteborg 4 1568 56.49% Orgryte 0 1525 24.41% 19.09%
12 1933-10-29 17.32 GAIS 5 1634 51.43% @ IFK Eskilstuna 1 1471 29.52% 19.05%
13 1933-07-30 17.08 @ Sandvikens IF 4 1498 41.26% Goteborg 1 1574 39.47% 19.27%
14 1933-10-01 17.05 GAIS 5 1590 33.95% @ Gefle 2 1554 46.77% 19.27%
15 1933-10-15 17.05 @ IFK Eskilstuna 4 1454 41.36% Sandvikens IF 1 1529 39.37% 19.27%
16 1933-09-17 16.90 @ IFK Eskilstuna 3 1469 49.10% Halmia 0 1487 31.64% 19.26%
17 1933-09-03 16.64 Orgryte 3 1513 24.00% @ Sandvikens IF 1 1559 56.92% 19.08%
18 1933-08-13 16.29 Halmstad 3 1550 25.23% @ Goteborg 1 1585 55.65% 19.12%
19 1933-07-30 15.28 @ Helsingborg 5 1625 55.43% Gefle 1 1592 25.44% 19.13%
20 1933-09-17 14.87 Helsingborg 5 1642 41.03% @ AIK Stockholm 2 1555 39.71% 19.26%
21 1933-09-03 14.53 @ Elfsborg 4 1470 25.52% Helsingborg 2 1667 55.60% 18.88%
22 1934-04-15 14.51 @ Goteborg 4 1618 61.64% Gefle 0 1526 19.50% 18.86%
23 1933-08-13 14.02 @ IFK Eskilstuna 7 1458 37.64% Gefle 4 1560 43.12% 19.24%
24 1934-05-10 13.46 Halmstad 3 1566 35.73% @ Gefle 1 1517 44.99% 19.28%
25 1933-10-29 13.26 @ Elfsborg 3 1472 36.53% Halmstad 1 1581 44.25% 19.22%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1934-04-08 78.4 @ GAIS 3 1661 60.69% Halmstad 3 1580 20.40% 18.91%
2 1933-10-01 77.0 @ Halmstad 4 1582 62.05% Elfsborg 4 1486 19.12% 18.83%
3 1934-05-13 77.0 @ Goteborg 3 1617 58.36% AIK Stockholm 3 1558 22.61% 19.02%
4 1933-08-20 73.0 @ Gefle 2 1546 36.59% Helsingborg 2 1654 44.18% 19.22%
5 1933-07-30 72.4 @ Halmstad 2 1592 52.74% AIK Stockholm 2 1581 28.07% 19.20%
6 1933-07-30 71.6 @ Orgryte 3 1526 56.26% Halmia 3 1486 24.64% 19.10%
7 1933-10-29 70.3 @ Halmia 3 1462 44.31% Sandvikens IF 3 1516 36.41% 19.28%
8 1933-08-06 69.8 @ GAIS 2 1623 68.05% IFK Eskilstuna 2 1457 13.61% 18.33%
9 1933-10-22 69.7 @ AIK Stockholm 2 1550 53.44% Orgryte 2 1534 27.38% 19.18%
10 1933-10-15 69.2 AIK Stockholm 3 1540 20.76% @ GAIS 2 1618 60.30% 18.93%
11 1933-08-27 68.4 @ Elfsborg 2 1469 36.68% Goteborg 2 1578 44.09% 19.22%
12 1934-05-21 67.5 @ Gefle 4 1505 36.15% Goteborg 3 1616 44.63% 19.22%
13 1933-08-20 66.9 Goteborg 3 1569 27.82% @ AIK Stockholm 2 1582 52.99% 19.19%
14 1934-05-13 66.5 @ Elfsborg 2 1492 49.87% Gefle 2 1504 30.88% 19.25%
15 1933-08-09 66.1 Sandvikens IF 3 1554 27.64% @ Gefle 2 1568 53.18% 19.19%
16 1933-08-20 65.5 @ Orgryte 1 1513 43.68% Sandvikens IF 1 1571 37.04% 19.28%
17 1934-04-22 65.5 @ Gefle 2 1512 57.94% IFK Eskilstuna 2 1456 23.02% 19.04%
18 1933-11-05 65.0 @ Halmia 1 1462 31.77% Goteborg 1 1607 49.11% 19.12%
19 1933-10-22 64.6 Helsingborg 4 1645 32.57% @ Goteborg 2 1620 48.17% 19.26%
20 1934-05-21 64.5 @ AIK Stockholm 1 1567 60.41% Sandvikens IF 1 1487 20.66% 18.93%
21 1933-11-05 64.3 Halmstad 3 1568 32.45% @ AIK Stockholm 2 1543 48.28% 19.26%
22 1934-05-10 64.3 @ AIK Stockholm 1 1560 59.44% Elfsborg 1 1490 21.58% 18.97%
23 1933-09-03 63.9 @ Elfsborg 4 1470 25.52% Helsingborg 2 1667 55.60% 18.88%
24 1933-09-17 63.6 Gefle 2 1545 23.02% @ GAIS 1 1600 57.94% 19.04%
25 1933-08-18 63.2 @ Orgryte 5 1502 36.32% GAIS 3 1612 44.46% 19.22%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1933-11-12 37.1 @ AIK Stockholm 3 1535 59.73% Halmia 0 1463 21.31% 18.96%
2 1934-05-21 38.4 @ Helsingborg 2 1624 70.79% Halmia 0 1418 11.22% 17.99%
3 1933-09-17 38.7 @ IFK Eskilstuna 3 1469 49.10% Halmia 0 1487 31.64% 19.26%
4 1933-08-11 40.2 @ Goteborg 4 1568 56.49% Orgryte 0 1525 24.41% 19.09%
5 1934-04-15 40.2 @ Goteborg 4 1618 61.64% Gefle 0 1526 19.50% 18.86%
6 1934-05-18 40.4 @ AIK Stockholm 2 1559 61.80% IFK Eskilstuna 0 1466 19.35% 18.85%
7 1934-04-08 40.6 @ Elfsborg 4 1488 56.02% IFK Eskilstuna 1 1450 24.87% 19.11%
8 1934-04-22 41.7 @ Elfsborg 1 1497 58.85% Halmia 0 1433 22.14% 19.00%
9 1933-08-27 42.2 @ Halmstad 4 1573 63.13% IFK Eskilstuna 1 1466 18.10% 18.76%
10 1934-04-29 43.2 @ Goteborg 3 1624 70.18% Halmia 1 1428 11.74% 18.07%
11 1933-11-05 44.2 @ GAIS 5 1651 65.55% Sandvikens IF 1 1517 15.87% 18.58%
12 1933-11-05 45.1 @ Helsingborg 3 1658 70.75% IFK Eskilstuna 1 1454 11.26% 17.99%
13 1934-04-15 45.8 IFK Eskilstuna 2 1438 27.80% @ Halmia 0 1451 53.01% 19.19%
14 1933-08-06 46.4 @ Sandvikens IF 6 1515 41.28% Halmstad 0 1591 39.44% 19.27%
15 1933-10-15 46.6 @ IFK Eskilstuna 4 1454 41.36% Sandvikens IF 1 1529 39.37% 19.27%
16 1933-10-29 46.6 GAIS 5 1634 51.43% @ IFK Eskilstuna 1 1471 29.52% 19.05%
17 1933-11-12 46.9 @ Halmstad 4 1576 55.98% Gefle 1 1538 24.91% 19.11%
18 1934-05-21 47.1 @ GAIS 3 1699 71.00% Elfsborg 1 1491 11.04% 17.96%
19 1933-08-27 47.3 @ GAIS 5 1601 64.43% Halmia 2 1479 16.90% 18.67%
20 1934-04-22 48.2 GAIS 3 1660 44.78% @ AIK Stockholm 0 1547 36.01% 19.21%
21 1934-05-04 48.2 @ Orgryte 3 1572 43.95% Goteborg 0 1628 36.77% 19.28%
22 1933-07-30 48.4 @ Helsingborg 5 1625 55.43% Gefle 1 1592 25.44% 19.13%
23 1934-05-21 48.5 @ Halmstad 5 1575 50.42% Orgryte 1 1583 30.34% 19.24%
24 1933-11-12 48.9 @ Goteborg 5 1606 62.44% Sandvikens IF 2 1507 18.75% 18.81%
25 1933-08-27 49.0 @ Helsingborg 7 1654 60.74% Sandvikens IF 2 1572 20.35% 18.91%