2020 WNBA Season

132 regular-season games · 8 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Seattle Storm

4th Title

Last Title: 2018

Runner-Up

Las Vegas Aces

Biggest Overachiever

Las Vegas Aces

3.59 wins above expected

18 wins · 14.41 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Mystics

3.19 wins below expected

9 wins · 12.19 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PPG	OPP	DIFF	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Storm League	18	4	.818	—	87.5	76.0	+11.5	14.43	+3.57
2	Las Vegas Aces Playoffs	18	4	.818	—	88.7	80.1	+8.6	14.41	+3.59
3	Los Angeles Sparks Playoffs	15	7	.682	3	84.9	80.3	+4.6	13.96	+1.04
4	Minnesota Lynx Playoffs	14	8	.636	4	84.4	80.6	+3.8	13.32	+0.68
5	Phoenix Mercury Playoffs	13	9	.591	5	86.1	84.1	+2.0	10.75	+2.25
6	Chicago Sky Playoffs	12	10	.545	6	86.7	84.1	+2.6	13.21	-1.21
7	Connecticut Sun Playoffs	10	12	.455	8	80.4	79.9	+0.5	11.81	-1.81
8	Washington Mystics Playoffs	9	13	.409	9	80.0	81.5	-1.5	12.19	-3.19
9	Dallas Wings	8	14	.364	10	83.4	87.0	-3.5	7.96	+0.04
10	Atlanta Dream	7	15	.318	11	81.0	87.6	-6.7	6.47	+0.53
11	Indiana Fever	6	16	.273	12	81.7	89.5	-7.9	8.44	-2.44
12	New York Liberty	2	20	.091	16	71.9	85.9	-14.0	5.06	-3.06

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

WNBA Playoffs

First Round

Connecticut Sun 94

Chicago Sky 81

Sep 15

Phoenix Mercury 85

Washington Mystics 84

Sep 15

Second Round

Connecticut Sun 73

Los Angeles Sparks 59

Sep 17

Minnesota Lynx 80

Phoenix Mercury 79

Sep 17

Semifinals

Las Vegas Aces 3

Connecticut Sun 2

5 games · Sep 20–Sep 29

Seattle Storm 3

Minnesota Lynx 0

3 games · Sep 22–Sep 27

WNBA Finals

Seattle Storm 3

Las Vegas Aces 0

3 games · Oct 2–Oct 6

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Las Vegas Aces	1739	18	14.41	+3.59	97.73%	6	11	13	14	16	18	21
Seattle Storm	1725	18	14.43	+3.57	97.51%	6	11	13	14	16	18	21
Los Angeles Sparks	1592	15	13.96	+1.04	76.47%	6	10	13	14	15	17	20
Minnesota Lynx	1577	14	13.32	+0.68	70.96%	5	10	12	13	15	17	20
Phoenix Mercury	1535	13	10.75	+2.25	89.40%	3	7	9	11	12	14	18
Connecticut Sun	1522	10	11.81	-1.81	28.03%	3	8	10	12	13	15	20
Chicago Sky	1514	12	13.21	-1.21	36.74%	5	10	12	13	15	17	20
Washington Mystics	1497	9	12.19	-3.19	10.52%	4	9	11	12	14	16	20
Dallas Wings	1402	8	7.96	+0.04	60.37%	0	4	6	8	9	12	16
Atlanta Dream	1373	7	6.47	+0.53	70.81%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
Indiana Fever	1325	6	8.44	-2.44	18.51%	1	5	7	8	10	12	17
New York Liberty	1200	2	5.06	-3.06	8.25%	0	2	4	5	6	8	14

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	Dream	Sky	Sun	Wings	Fever	Aces	Sparks	Lynx	Liberty	Mercury	Storm	Mystics
Atlanta Dream	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Chicago Sky	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Connecticut Sun	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Dallas Wings	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Indiana Fever	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Las Vegas Aces	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Los Angeles Sparks	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Lynx	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
New York Liberty	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Phoenix Mercury	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Seattle Storm	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Mystics	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Las Vegas Aces	18	14.41	+3.59
2	Seattle Storm	18	14.43	+3.57
3	Phoenix Mercury	13	10.75	+2.25
4	Los Angeles Sparks	15	13.96	+1.04
5	Minnesota Lynx	14	13.32	+0.68

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Mystics	9	12.19	-3.19
2	New York Liberty	2	5.06	-3.06
3	Indiana Fever	6	8.44	-2.44
4	Connecticut Sun	10	11.81	-1.81
5	Chicago Sky	12	13.21	-1.21

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Phoenix Mercury	6	Aug 23 – Sep 5	1 in 73
2	Las Vegas Aces	7	Aug 2 – Aug 15	1 in 50
3	Seattle Storm	9	Aug 1 – Aug 18	1 in 31
4	Washington Mystics	4	Sep 8 – Sep 13	1 in 31
5	Los Angeles Sparks	9	Aug 9 – Aug 30	1 in 27

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Mystics	7	Aug 1 – Aug 15	1 in 1,888
2	Chicago Sky	4	Sep 2 – Sep 9	1 in 47
3	Indiana Fever	8	Aug 22 – Sep 8	1 in 32
4	Atlanta Dream	10	Aug 2 – Aug 21	1 in 29
5	Connecticut Sun	5	Jul 26 – Aug 4	1 in 25

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Seattle Storm	24.35%	20.08%	15.57%	13.16%	10.31%	7.66%	4.92%	2.64%	0.94%	0.31%	0.06%	—
Las Vegas Aces	24.58%	19.69%	16.08%	12.36%	10.05%	7.63%	5.26%	2.85%	1.05%	0.38%	0.06%	0.01%
Los Angeles Sparks	18.01%	17.38%	16.35%	13.88%	11.73%	9.44%	6.61%	4.34%	1.52%	0.61%	0.12%	0.01%
Minnesota Lynx	11.84%	13.43%	14.51%	14.54%	13.60%	12.06%	9.47%	6.61%	2.76%	0.91%	0.20%	0.07%
Chicago Sky	10.84%	12.52%	14.12%	14.55%	14.56%	12.49%	10.01%	6.34%	3.08%	1.11%	0.33%	0.05%
Washington Mystics	4.82%	7.60%	9.68%	11.75%	13.79%	15.04%	14.86%	12.03%	6.61%	2.86%	0.87%	0.09%
Connecticut Sun	3.96%	5.87%	8.22%	10.85%	12.51%	14.22%	15.53%	14.05%	8.96%	3.95%	1.55%	0.33%
Phoenix Mercury	1.42%	2.96%	4.39%	6.55%	9.21%	12.96%	16.68%	19.36%	13.76%	8.33%	3.40%	0.98%
Indiana Fever	0.10%	0.31%	0.64%	1.34%	2.21%	4.29%	8.08%	13.96%	24.30%	22.89%	15.18%	6.70%
Dallas Wings	0.08%	0.14%	0.38%	0.91%	1.75%	3.24%	6.34%	11.60%	20.77%	25.80%	19.24%	9.75%
Atlanta Dream	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.22%	0.87%	1.80%	4.88%	11.87%	21.61%	33.72%	24.87%
New York Liberty	—	0.01%	0.02%	—	0.06%	0.10%	0.44%	1.34%	4.38%	11.24%	25.27%	57.14%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	7 Seed	8 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Las Vegas Aces	24.58%	19.69%	16.08%	12.36%	10.05%	7.63%	5.26%	2.85%	1.50%
Seattle Storm	24.35%	20.08%	15.57%	13.16%	10.31%	7.66%	4.92%	2.64%	1.31%
Los Angeles Sparks	18.01%	17.38%	16.35%	13.88%	11.73%	9.44%	6.61%	4.34%	2.26%
Minnesota Lynx	11.84%	13.43%	14.51%	14.54%	13.60%	12.06%	9.47%	6.61%	3.94%
Chicago Sky	10.84%	12.52%	14.12%	14.55%	14.56%	12.49%	10.01%	6.34%	4.57%
Washington Mystics	4.82%	7.60%	9.68%	11.75%	13.79%	15.04%	14.86%	12.03%	10.43%
Connecticut Sun	3.96%	5.87%	8.22%	10.85%	12.51%	14.22%	15.53%	14.05%	14.79%
Phoenix Mercury	1.42%	2.96%	4.39%	6.55%	9.21%	12.96%	16.68%	19.36%	26.47%
Indiana Fever	0.10%	0.31%	0.64%	1.34%	2.21%	4.29%	8.08%	13.96%	69.07%
Dallas Wings	0.08%	0.14%	0.38%	0.91%	1.75%	3.24%	6.34%	11.60%	75.56%
Atlanta Dream	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.22%	0.87%	1.80%	4.88%	92.07%
New York Liberty	—	0.01%	0.02%	—	0.06%	0.10%	0.44%	1.34%	98.03%

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Semifinals	Advanced to Finals	Won Finals
Las Vegas Aces	79.35%	79.35%	59.63%	39.08%
Seattle Storm	79.27%	79.27%	56.70%	35.22%
Los Angeles Sparks	61.63%	61.63%	26.28%	9.18%
Minnesota Lynx	53.94%	52.01%	20.04%	6.72%
Chicago Sky	49.58%	43.16%	12.22%	2.74%
Connecticut Sun	45.79%	28.82%	9.12%	2.49%
Phoenix Mercury	39.37%	21.34%	7.41%	2.29%
Washington Mystics	45.58%	29.24%	8.00%	2.17%
Dallas Wings	8.22%	2.56%	0.35%	0.08%
Indiana Fever	8.34%	2.07%	0.19%	0.03%
Atlanta Dream	2.08%	0.52%	0.06%	—
New York Liberty	0.26%	0.03%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	New York Liberty	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream		0.11%	0.04%		0.01%	0.05%	0.05%	0.11%		0.04%	0.05%	0.05%
Chicago Sky	0.13%		3.23%	0.67%	0.97%	1.41%	2.84%	3.14%	0.01%	2.48%	1.43%	3.49%
Connecticut Sun	0.06%	3.53%		0.37%	0.47%	1.98%	2.68%	3.22%	0.01%	2.09%	1.53%	3.05%
Dallas Wings		0.49%	0.24%		0.04%	0.29%	0.41%	0.32%		0.15%	0.18%	0.22%
Indiana Fever		0.29%	0.21%	0.02%		0.14%	0.24%	0.32%		0.11%	0.13%	0.20%
Las Vegas Aces	0.37%	5.24%	5.26%	1.20%	1.15%		4.26%	5.07%	0.04%	4.32%	2.94%	5.23%
Los Angeles Sparks	0.32%	4.03%	4.28%	1.04%	0.98%	1.86%		3.86%	0.03%	3.35%	2.12%	4.37%
Minnesota Lynx	0.27%	4.83%	4.09%	0.68%	0.97%	2.19%	3.69%		0.05%	3.26%	2.23%	4.48%
New York Liberty								0.01%				0.01%
Phoenix Mercury	0.06%	3.05%	1.97%	0.30%	0.45%	1.54%	2.56%	2.98%	0.02%		1.63%	2.40%
Seattle Storm	0.29%	5.03%	5.09%	1.13%	1.00%	2.83%	4.22%	5.16%	0.07%	4.76%		5.26%
Washington Mystics	0.07%	3.18%	2.39%	0.47%	0.64%	1.23%	2.71%	3.01%	0.01%	1.85%	1.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	New York Liberty	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Atlanta Dream							0.03%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Chicago Sky	0.04%		1.31%	0.21%	0.21%	1.40%	2.89%	2.13%		0.95%	1.54%	1.54%
Connecticut Sun	0.02%	1.68%		0.14%	0.04%	0.98%	1.82%	1.92%		0.51%	1.01%	1.00%
Dallas Wings		0.06%	0.01%			0.08%	0.05%	0.05%			0.05%	0.05%
Indiana Fever		0.03%	0.01%			0.01%	0.04%	0.05%		0.01%		0.04%
Las Vegas Aces	0.13%	8.99%	5.95%	0.60%	0.61%		11.30%	10.22%	0.02%	4.59%	11.04%	6.18%
Los Angeles Sparks	0.10%	4.78%	2.88%	0.36%	0.25%	3.69%		5.03%		1.95%	4.02%	3.22%
Minnesota Lynx	0.03%	3.93%	2.37%	0.18%	0.26%	2.49%	4.17%			1.50%	2.71%	2.40%
Phoenix Mercury		1.21%	0.59%	0.03%	0.02%	1.13%	1.53%	1.07%			1.09%	0.74%
Seattle Storm	0.13%	8.61%	5.76%	0.64%	0.41%	9.26%	11.89%	9.88%		4.06%		6.06%
Washington Mystics	0.01%	1.65%	0.82%	0.05%	0.08%	0.68%	1.63%	1.62%	0.01%	0.35%	1.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Dream	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Dallas Wings	Indiana Fever	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky	0.02%		0.18%		0.01%	0.86%	0.41%	0.32%	0.08%	0.69%	0.17%
Connecticut Sun		0.20%				0.76%	0.32%	0.21%	0.10%	0.81%	0.09%
Dallas Wings		0.02%	0.01%			0.02%				0.01%	0.02%
Indiana Fever		0.01%								0.02%
Las Vegas Aces	0.01%	3.85%	2.51%	0.13%	0.09%		7.64%	5.76%	2.23%	14.32%	2.54%
Los Angeles Sparks		0.88%	0.67%	0.03%	0.01%	2.90%		1.16%	0.48%	2.61%	0.44%
Minnesota Lynx		0.48%	0.47%	0.01%		1.94%	1.19%		0.39%	1.90%	0.34%
Phoenix Mercury		0.12%	0.20%	0.01%		0.58%	0.39%	0.30%		0.54%	0.15%
Seattle Storm	0.03%	3.75%	2.41%	0.08%	0.05%	12.88%	6.87%	5.37%	1.70%		2.08%
Washington Mystics		0.17%	0.18%	0.01%		0.61%	0.28%	0.20%	0.14%	0.58%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Semifinals	Advanced to Finals	Won Finals	Actual Outcome
Las Vegas Aces	100.00%	80.20%	44.83%	Eliminated in Finals
Seattle Storm	100.00%	74.25%	38.77%	Won Finals
Minnesota Lynx	53.77%	12.76%	4.87%	Eliminated in Semifinals
Connecticut Sun	22.37%	4.61%	1.46%	Eliminated in Semifinals

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky			12.01%	9.65%
Connecticut Sun			12.05%	10.32%
Los Angeles Sparks	16.31%	16.06%				25.85%
Minnesota Lynx	11.69%	11.91%			30.17%
Phoenix Mercury				26.26%
Washington Mystics			17.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky			3.38%				0.69%
Connecticut Sun			3.64%				0.97%
Las Vegas Aces	14.55%	14.38%			24.09%	12.21%		14.97%
Los Angeles Sparks							16.04%
Minnesota Lynx			7.10%				5.66%
Phoenix Mercury			2.93%				2.39%
Seattle Storm	3.04%	3.38%		42.18%	16.92%	8.73%
Washington Mystics			2.75%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Chicago Sky	Connecticut Sun	Las Vegas Aces	Los Angeles Sparks	Minnesota Lynx	Phoenix Mercury	Seattle Storm	Washington Mystics
Chicago Sky			0.14%	0.18%	0.11%	0.11%	0.71%	0.07%
Connecticut Sun			0.20%	0.14%	0.11%	0.12%	0.85%	0.04%
Las Vegas Aces	0.43%	0.64%		8.58%	3.01%	1.47%	30.70%
Los Angeles Sparks	0.22%	0.13%	4.26%		0.88%	0.36%
Minnesota Lynx	0.17%	0.13%	1.76%	0.93%			1.72%	0.16%
Phoenix Mercury	0.09%	0.14%	0.46%	0.36%			0.74%
Seattle Storm	1.79%	2.02%	28.55%		3.57%	1.47%		1.37%
Washington Mystics	0.05%	0.09%			0.21%		0.76%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Las Vegas Aces 44.83% chance to win

Semifinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

30.04%

Win Prob

77.24%

→

Finals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

68.48%

Win Prob

51.81%

Seattle Storm 38.77% chance to win

Semifinals

vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Matchup

56.81%

Win Prob

72.45%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

73.64%

Win Prob

48.19%

Los Angeles Sparks 5.85% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Washington Mystics

Matchup

44.40%

Win Prob

59.33%

→

Semifinals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.55%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

72.82%

Win Prob

33.18%

Minnesota Lynx 4.87% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Phoenix Mercury

Matchup

56.11%

Win Prob

53.46%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

55.64%

Win Prob

22.76%

→

Finals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

36.14%

Win Prob

36.90%

Phoenix Mercury 1.79% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Minnesota Lynx

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.54%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

55.08%

Win Prob

19.35%

→

Finals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

41.34%

Win Prob

33.48%

Connecticut Sun 1.46% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Matchup

53.87%

Win Prob

42.87%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

78.96%

Win Prob

20.20%

→

Finals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

58.22%

Win Prob

29.62%

Chicago Sky 1.32% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Matchup

55.45%

Win Prob

42.41%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

83.05%

Win Prob

18.85%

→

Finals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

53.79%

Win Prob

28.40%

Washington Mystics 1.11% chance to win

Quarterfinals

vs. Los Angeles Sparks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.67%

→

Semifinals

vs. Las Vegas Aces

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

15.52%

→

Finals

vs. Seattle Storm

Matchup

68.47%

Win Prob

35.68%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2020-07-26	Dallas Wings	W 105-95	1397.18	1426.44	45.80%	54.20%	+24.54	1-0
2020-07-29	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 70-100	1421.72	1527.24	35.26%	64.74%	-27.66	1-1
2020-07-31	New York Liberty	W 84-78	1394.06	1347.06	56.72%	43.28%	+15.18	2-1
2020-08-02	@ Indiana Fever	L 77-93	1409.24	1458.01	43.03%	56.97%	-24.64	2-2
2020-08-04	Phoenix Mercury	L 74-81	1384.60	1467.14	38.34%	61.66%	-14.53	2-3
2020-08-06	Seattle Storm	L 92-93	1370.07	1584.86	22.51%	77.49%	-3.22	2-4
2020-08-08	@ Dallas Wings	L 75-85	1366.85	1388.12	46.94%	53.06%	-21.26	2-5
2020-08-10	Connecticut Sun	L 82-93	1345.59	1491.55	30.15%	69.85%	-14.32	2-6
2020-08-12	@ Seattle Storm	L 63-100	1331.27	1629.96	15.20%	84.80%	-13.23	2-7
2020-08-14	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 80-96	1318.04	1488.49	27.27%	72.73%	-15.62	2-8
2020-08-16	Chicago Sky	L 67-92	1302.42	1561.22	18.40%	81.60%	-13.17	2-9
2020-08-19	@ Washington Mystics	L 91-98	1289.25	1502.80	22.63%	77.37%	-8.58	2-10
2020-08-21	Los Angeles Sparks	L 85-93	1280.67	1633.54	11.60%	88.40%	-4.69	2-11
2020-08-23	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 78-75	1275.98	1598.15	13.53%	86.47%	+21.44	3-11
2020-08-28	Minnesota Lynx	L 79-88	1297.42	1576.71	16.69%	83.31%	-7.17	3-12
2020-08-30	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 79-84	1290.25	1653.12	11.02%	88.98%	-3.52	3-13
2020-09-01	Indiana Fever	W 102-90	1286.73	1388.33	35.78%	64.22%	+31.85	4-13
2020-09-03	@ New York Liberty	W 62-56	1318.58	1263.98	57.79%	42.21%	+14.81	5-13
2020-09-05	Las Vegas Aces	L 79-89	1333.39	1679.83	11.98%	88.02%	-5.43	5-14
2020-09-09	@ Chicago Sky	W 97-89	1327.96	1530.27	23.78%	76.22%	+30.87	6-14
2020-09-11	@ Connecticut Sun	W 82-75	1358.83	1550.36	24.93%	75.07%	+28.44	7-14
2020-09-13	Washington Mystics	L 78-85	1387.27	1483.23	36.53%	63.47%	-13.84	7-15
2020-07-26	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 88-86	1540.18	1537.28	50.42%	49.58%	+10.04	1-0
2020-07-28	Los Angeles Sparks	W 96-78	1550.22	1557.77	48.91%	51.09%	+31.04	2-0
2020-07-30	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 81-83	1581.26	1513.95	59.57%	40.43%	-12.06	2-1
2020-08-01	Washington Mystics	W 88-86	1569.20	1685.82	33.82%	66.18%	+13.40	3-1
2020-08-04	Dallas Wings	W 82-79	1582.60	1423.36	71.44%	28.56%	+7.09	4-1
2020-08-06	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 86-96	1589.69	1481.67	65.06%	34.94%	-29.47	4-2
2020-08-08	@ Connecticut Sun	W 100-93	1560.22	1507.65	57.51%	42.49%	+16.10	5-2
2020-08-10	@ Seattle Storm	L 71-89	1576.32	1601.80	46.34%	53.66%	-28.15	5-3
2020-08-12	Phoenix Mercury	W 89-71	1548.17	1516.07	54.61%	45.39%	+27.58	6-3
2020-08-14	Connecticut Sun	L 74-77	1575.75	1515.61	58.57%	41.43%	-14.53	6-4
2020-08-16	@ Atlanta Dream	W 92-67	1561.22	1302.42	81.60%	18.40%	+13.17	7-4
2020-08-18	Las Vegas Aces	W 84-82	1574.39	1647.66	39.61%	60.39%	+12.23	8-4
2020-08-20	@ New York Liberty	W 101-85	1586.62	1276.84	85.61%	14.39%	+8.24	9-4
2020-08-22	Indiana Fever	W 87-76	1594.86	1449.64	69.76%	30.24%	+14.37	10-4
2020-08-25	New York Liberty	L 99-101	1609.23	1256.92	88.37%	11.63%	-17.90	10-5
2020-08-29	Seattle Storm	L 74-88	1591.33	1648.91	41.79%	58.21%	-22.39	10-6
2020-08-31	@ Indiana Fever	W 100-77	1568.94	1407.80	71.66%	28.34%	+19.46	11-6
2020-09-02	Minnesota Lynx	L 83-86	1588.40	1604.08	47.75%	52.25%	-11.84	11-7
2020-09-04	@ Washington Mystics	L 69-79	1576.56	1411.95	72.06%	27.94%	-32.63	11-8
2020-09-06	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 80-86	1543.93	1622.09	38.94%	61.06%	-13.66	11-9
2020-09-09	Atlanta Dream	L 89-97	1530.27	1327.96	76.22%	23.78%	-30.87	11-10
2020-09-11	@ Dallas Wings	W 95-88	1499.40	1409.90	62.60%	37.40%	+14.17	12-10
2020-07-26	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 69-77	1572.72	1528.15	56.38%	43.62%	-22.83	0-1
2020-07-28	Washington Mystics	L 89-94	1549.89	1652.12	35.70%	64.30%	-11.43	0-2
2020-07-30	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 76-81	1538.46	1526.73	51.69%	48.31%	-16.55	0-3
2020-08-01	Minnesota Lynx	L 69-78	1521.91	1526.01	49.41%	50.59%	-21.23	0-4
2020-08-04	@ Seattle Storm	L 74-87	1500.68	1563.68	41.03%	58.97%	-21.19	0-5
2020-08-06	@ Dallas Wings	W 91-68	1479.49	1416.28	59.00%	41.00%	+28.16	1-5
2020-08-08	Chicago Sky	L 93-100	1507.65	1560.22	42.49%	57.51%	-16.10	1-6
2020-08-10	@ Atlanta Dream	W 93-82	1491.55	1345.59	69.85%	30.15%	+14.32	2-6
2020-08-12	Dallas Wings	W 70-66	1505.87	1390.73	65.99%	34.01%	+9.74	3-6
2020-08-14	@ Chicago Sky	W 77-74	1515.61	1575.75	41.43%	58.57%	+14.53	4-6
2020-08-16	Seattle Storm	L 72-95	1530.14	1654.19	32.87%	67.13%	-22.57	4-7
2020-08-18	Indiana Fever	W 84-62	1507.57	1448.80	58.38%	41.62%	+27.95	5-7
2020-08-20	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 78-99	1535.52	1635.43	36.01%	63.99%	-23.63	5-8
2020-08-22	New York Liberty	W 82-65	1511.89	1268.60	80.23%	19.77%	+11.68	6-8
2020-08-28	Los Angeles Sparks	L 76-80	1523.57	1643.56	33.39%	66.61%	-9.56	6-9
2020-08-30	@ Washington Mystics	W 76-63	1514.01	1439.50	60.56%	39.44%	+20.36	7-9
2020-09-01	@ New York Liberty	W 70-65	1534.37	1269.71	82.11%	17.89%	+5.73	8-9
2020-09-03	Las Vegas Aces	L 78-93	1540.10	1661.41	33.22%	66.78%	-18.42	8-10
2020-09-05	@ Indiana Fever	W 96-77	1521.68	1338.39	74.18%	25.82%	+16.12	9-10
2020-09-07	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 85-70	1537.80	1566.48	45.88%	54.12%	+30.01	10-10
2020-09-09	Phoenix Mercury	L 95-100	1567.81	1536.47	54.50%	45.50%	-17.45	10-11
2020-09-11	Atlanta Dream	L 75-82	1550.36	1358.83	75.07%	24.93%	-28.44	10-12
2020-07-26	@ Atlanta Dream	L 95-105	1426.44	1397.18	54.20%	45.80%	-24.55	0-1
2020-07-29	New York Liberty	W 93-80	1401.89	1370.56	54.50%	45.50%	+23.50	1-1
2020-07-31	Indiana Fever	W 76-73	1425.39	1472.06	43.32%	56.68%	+14.05	2-1
2020-08-02	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 70-79	1439.44	1528.67	37.43%	62.57%	-16.08	2-2
2020-08-04	@ Chicago Sky	L 79-82	1423.36	1582.60	28.56%	71.44%	-7.08	2-3
2020-08-06	Connecticut Sun	L 68-91	1416.28	1479.49	41.00%	59.00%	-28.16	2-4
2020-08-08	Atlanta Dream	W 85-75	1388.12	1366.85	53.06%	46.94%	+21.26	3-4
2020-08-10	Phoenix Mercury	L 79-91	1409.38	1497.42	37.59%	62.41%	-18.65	3-5
2020-08-12	@ Connecticut Sun	L 66-70	1390.73	1505.87	34.01%	65.99%	-9.74	3-6
2020-08-14	Seattle Storm	L 65-83	1380.99	1643.19	18.10%	81.90%	-11.00	3-7
2020-08-16	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 95-89	1369.99	1504.10	31.60%	68.40%	+23.99	4-7
2020-08-19	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 84-91	1393.98	1572.83	26.32%	73.68%	-9.97	4-8
2020-08-21	Washington Mystics	W 101-92	1384.01	1511.37	32.45%	67.55%	+29.02	5-8
2020-08-23	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 81-84	1413.03	1638.24	21.48%	78.52%	-5.33	5-9
2020-08-25	Las Vegas Aces	L 92-96	1407.70	1679.17	17.33%	82.67%	-4.96	5-10
2020-08-29	@ Indiana Fever	W 82-78	1402.74	1422.95	47.10%	52.90%	+15.15	6-10
2020-09-02	Los Angeles Sparks	L 83-91	1417.89	1618.52	23.96%	76.04%	-9.70	6-11
2020-09-04	Minnesota Lynx	L 75-88	1408.19	1615.92	23.22%	76.78%	-11.99	6-12
2020-09-06	@ Washington Mystics	W 101-94	1396.20	1444.58	43.08%	56.92%	+21.56	7-12
2020-09-09	@ Seattle Storm	L 95-107	1417.76	1707.87	15.84%	84.16%	-7.86	7-13
2020-09-11	Chicago Sky	L 88-95	1409.90	1499.40	37.40%	62.60%	-14.17	7-14
2020-09-13	@ New York Liberty	W 82-79	1395.73	1205.79	74.90%	25.10%	+6.23	8-14
2020-07-25	@ Washington Mystics	L 76-101	1476.65	1631.28	29.11%	70.89%	-20.84	0-1
2020-07-29	Phoenix Mercury	W 106-100	1455.81	1430.26	53.67%	46.33%	+16.25	1-1
2020-07-31	@ Dallas Wings	L 73-76	1472.06	1425.39	56.68%	43.32%	-14.05	1-2
2020-08-02	Atlanta Dream	W 93-77	1458.01	1409.24	56.97%	43.03%	+24.64	2-2
2020-08-05	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 75-86	1482.65	1525.90	43.81%	56.19%	-20.80	2-3
2020-08-07	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 80-87	1461.85	1561.75	36.01%	63.99%	-13.65	2-4
2020-08-09	Washington Mystics	W 91-84	1448.20	1612.78	27.94%	72.06%	+27.30	3-4
2020-08-11	Las Vegas Aces	L 79-98	1475.50	1585.67	34.66%	65.34%	-21.63	3-5
2020-08-13	@ New York Liberty	W 86-79	1453.87	1311.62	69.40%	30.60%	+11.60	4-5
2020-08-15	Los Angeles Sparks	L 76-90	1465.47	1603.62	31.10%	68.90%	-16.67	4-6
2020-08-18	@ Connecticut Sun	L 62-84	1448.80	1507.57	41.62%	58.38%	-27.96	4-7
2020-08-20	Seattle Storm	W 90-84	1420.84	1685.49	17.90%	82.10%	+28.80	5-7
2020-08-22	@ Chicago Sky	L 76-87	1449.64	1594.86	30.24%	69.76%	-14.36	5-8
2020-08-25	@ Seattle Storm	L 74-87	1435.28	1636.58	23.89%	76.11%	-12.33	5-9
2020-08-29	Dallas Wings	L 78-82	1422.95	1402.74	52.90%	47.10%	-15.15	5-10
2020-08-31	Chicago Sky	L 77-100	1407.80	1568.94	28.34%	71.66%	-19.47	5-11
2020-09-01	@ Atlanta Dream	L 90-102	1388.33	1286.73	64.22%	35.78%	-31.85	5-12
2020-09-03	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 81-105	1356.48	1540.12	25.79%	74.21%	-18.09	5-13
2020-09-05	Connecticut Sun	L 77-96	1338.39	1521.68	25.82%	74.18%	-16.12	5-14
2020-09-08	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 86-92	1322.27	1685.25	11.01%	88.99%	-3.87	5-15
2020-09-10	New York Liberty	W 85-75	1318.40	1234.08	61.90%	38.10%	+17.26	6-15
2020-09-12	Minnesota Lynx	L 86-98	1335.66	1566.56	20.93%	79.07%	-10.39	6-16
2020-07-26	Chicago Sky	L 86-88	1537.28	1540.18	49.58%	50.42%	-10.04	0-1
2020-07-29	Atlanta Dream	W 100-70	1527.24	1421.72	64.74%	35.26%	+27.66	1-1
2020-07-31	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 95-102	1554.90	1414.01	69.23%	30.77%	-26.23	1-2
2020-08-02	Dallas Wings	W 79-70	1528.67	1439.44	62.57%	37.43%	+16.08	2-2
2020-08-05	@ Washington Mystics	W 83-77	1544.75	1672.42	32.41%	67.59%	+23.71	3-2
2020-08-07	Los Angeles Sparks	W 86-82	1568.46	1546.70	53.13%	46.87%	+13.43	4-2
2020-08-09	@ New York Liberty	W 78-76	1581.89	1326.40	81.32%	18.68%	+3.78	5-2
2020-08-11	@ Indiana Fever	W 98-79	1585.67	1475.50	65.34%	34.66%	+21.63	6-2
2020-08-13	Minnesota Lynx	W 87-77	1607.30	1579.18	54.04%	45.96%	+20.82	7-2
2020-08-15	Washington Mystics	W 88-73	1628.12	1522.34	64.77%	35.23%	+19.54	8-2
2020-08-18	@ Chicago Sky	L 82-84	1647.66	1574.39	60.39%	39.61%	-12.23	8-3
2020-08-20	Connecticut Sun	W 99-78	1635.43	1535.52	63.99%	36.01%	+23.62	9-3
2020-08-22	Seattle Storm	W 82-74	1659.05	1656.69	50.34%	49.66%	+20.12	10-3
2020-08-25	@ Dallas Wings	W 96-92	1679.17	1407.70	82.67%	17.33%	+4.96	11-3
2020-08-29	New York Liberty	W 80-63	1684.13	1274.82	91.34%	8.66%	+5.11	12-3
2020-09-01	Phoenix Mercury	L 85-92	1689.24	1512.29	73.47%	26.53%	-27.83	12-4
2020-09-03	@ Connecticut Sun	W 93-78	1661.41	1540.10	66.78%	33.22%	+18.42	13-4
2020-09-05	@ Atlanta Dream	W 89-79	1679.83	1333.39	88.02%	11.98%	+5.42	14-4
2020-09-08	Indiana Fever	W 92-86	1685.25	1322.27	88.99%	11.01%	+3.87	15-4
2020-09-10	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 104-89	1689.12	1586.32	64.38%	35.62%	+19.75	16-4
2020-09-12	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 84-70	1708.87	1611.75	63.62%	36.38%	+19.49	17-4
2020-09-13	@ Seattle Storm	W 86-84	1728.36	1735.14	49.03%	50.97%	+10.33	18-4
2020-07-25	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 99-76	1530.55	1457.48	60.36%	39.64%	+27.22	1-0
2020-07-28	@ Chicago Sky	L 78-96	1557.77	1550.22	51.09%	48.91%	-31.04	1-1
2020-07-30	Connecticut Sun	W 81-76	1526.73	1538.46	48.31%	51.69%	+16.55	2-1
2020-08-01	@ Seattle Storm	L 75-81	1543.28	1546.29	49.57%	50.43%	-17.38	2-2
2020-08-05	Indiana Fever	W 86-75	1525.90	1482.65	56.19%	43.81%	+20.80	3-2
2020-08-07	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 82-86	1546.70	1568.46	46.87%	53.13%	-13.42	3-3
2020-08-09	Minnesota Lynx	W 97-81	1533.28	1575.39	43.97%	56.03%	+32.09	4-3
2020-08-11	New York Liberty	W 93-78	1565.37	1322.62	80.18%	19.82%	+11.00	5-3
2020-08-13	@ Washington Mystics	W 81-64	1576.37	1549.59	53.85%	46.15%	+27.25	6-3
2020-08-15	@ Indiana Fever	W 90-76	1603.62	1465.47	68.90%	31.10%	+16.66	7-3
2020-08-19	Phoenix Mercury	W 83-74	1620.28	1480.11	69.14%	30.86%	+13.26	8-3
2020-08-21	@ Atlanta Dream	W 93-85	1633.54	1280.67	88.40%	11.60%	+4.70	9-3
2020-08-23	Dallas Wings	W 84-81	1638.24	1413.03	78.52%	21.48%	+5.32	10-3
2020-08-28	@ Connecticut Sun	W 80-76	1643.56	1523.57	66.61%	33.39%	+9.56	11-3
2020-08-30	Atlanta Dream	W 84-79	1653.12	1290.25	88.98%	11.02%	+3.53	12-3
2020-08-31	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 78-96	1656.65	1565.95	62.76%	37.24%	-38.13	12-4
2020-09-02	@ Dallas Wings	W 91-83	1618.52	1417.89	76.04%	23.96%	+9.70	13-4
2020-09-04	Seattle Storm	L 89-90	1628.22	1678.49	42.82%	57.18%	-6.13	13-5
2020-09-06	Chicago Sky	W 86-80	1622.09	1543.93	61.06%	38.94%	+13.66	14-5
2020-09-08	@ New York Liberty	W 96-70	1635.75	1240.90	90.66%	9.34%	+6.82	15-5
2020-09-10	Washington Mystics	L 72-80	1642.57	1441.37	76.10%	23.90%	-30.82	15-6
2020-09-12	Las Vegas Aces	L 70-84	1611.75	1708.87	36.38%	63.62%	-19.49	15-7
2020-07-26	Connecticut Sun	W 77-69	1528.15	1572.72	43.62%	56.38%	+22.84	1-0
2020-07-28	@ Seattle Storm	L 66-90	1550.99	1531.52	52.80%	47.20%	-37.04	1-1
2020-07-30	Chicago Sky	W 83-81	1513.95	1581.26	40.43%	59.57%	+12.06	2-1
2020-08-01	@ Connecticut Sun	W 78-69	1526.01	1521.91	50.59%	49.41%	+21.23	3-1
2020-08-05	@ New York Liberty	W 92-66	1547.24	1304.97	80.13%	19.87%	+14.51	4-1
2020-08-07	Indiana Fever	W 87-80	1561.75	1461.85	63.99%	36.01%	+13.64	5-1
2020-08-09	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 81-97	1575.39	1533.28	56.03%	43.97%	-32.10	5-2
2020-08-11	Washington Mystics	W 68-48	1543.29	1585.48	43.96%	56.04%	+35.89	6-2
2020-08-13	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 77-87	1579.18	1607.30	45.96%	54.04%	-20.81	6-3
2020-08-15	New York Liberty	W 94-64	1558.37	1300.03	81.56%	18.44%	+14.46	7-3
2020-08-19	Dallas Wings	W 91-84	1572.83	1393.98	73.68%	26.32%	+9.97	8-3
2020-08-21	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 90-80	1582.80	1466.86	66.09%	33.91%	+15.35	9-3
2020-08-23	Atlanta Dream	L 75-78	1598.15	1275.98	86.47%	13.53%	-21.44	9-4
2020-08-28	@ Atlanta Dream	W 88-79	1576.71	1297.42	83.31%	16.69%	+7.17	10-4
2020-08-30	Phoenix Mercury	L 79-83	1583.88	1494.36	62.61%	37.39%	-17.93	10-5
2020-08-31	Los Angeles Sparks	W 96-78	1565.95	1656.65	37.24%	62.76%	+38.13	11-5
2020-09-02	@ Chicago Sky	W 86-83	1604.08	1588.40	52.25%	47.75%	+11.84	12-5
2020-09-04	@ Dallas Wings	W 88-75	1615.92	1408.19	76.78%	23.22%	+11.99	13-5
2020-09-06	Seattle Storm	L 88-103	1627.91	1684.62	41.91%	58.09%	-23.24	13-6
2020-09-08	@ Washington Mystics	L 86-89	1604.67	1423.02	73.99%	26.01%	-18.35	13-7
2020-09-10	Las Vegas Aces	L 89-104	1586.32	1689.12	35.62%	64.38%	-19.76	13-8
2020-09-12	@ Indiana Fever	W 98-86	1566.56	1335.66	79.07%	20.93%	+10.38	14-8
2020-07-25	Seattle Storm	L 71-87	1389.45	1512.63	32.98%	67.02%	-18.89	0-1
2020-07-29	@ Dallas Wings	L 80-93	1370.56	1401.89	45.50%	54.50%	-23.50	0-2
2020-07-31	@ Atlanta Dream	L 78-84	1347.06	1394.06	43.28%	56.72%	-15.18	0-3
2020-08-02	Phoenix Mercury	L 67-96	1331.88	1440.24	34.89%	65.11%	-26.91	0-4
2020-08-05	Minnesota Lynx	L 66-92	1304.97	1547.24	19.87%	80.13%	-14.50	0-5
2020-08-07	@ Washington Mystics	W 74-66	1290.47	1648.71	11.28%	88.72%	+35.93	1-5
2020-08-09	Las Vegas Aces	L 76-78	1326.40	1581.89	18.68%	81.32%	-3.78	1-6
2020-08-11	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 78-93	1322.62	1565.37	19.82%	80.18%	-11.00	1-7
2020-08-13	Indiana Fever	L 79-86	1311.62	1453.87	30.60%	69.40%	-11.59	1-8
2020-08-15	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 64-94	1300.03	1558.37	18.44%	81.56%	-14.46	1-9
2020-08-18	@ Seattle Storm	L 64-105	1285.57	1676.76	9.52%	90.48%	-8.73	1-10
2020-08-20	Chicago Sky	L 85-101	1276.84	1586.62	14.39%	85.61%	-8.24	1-11
2020-08-22	@ Connecticut Sun	L 65-82	1268.60	1511.89	19.77%	80.23%	-11.68	1-12
2020-08-25	@ Chicago Sky	W 101-99	1256.92	1609.23	11.63%	88.37%	+17.90	2-12
2020-08-29	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 63-80	1274.82	1684.13	8.66%	91.34%	-5.11	2-13
2020-09-01	Connecticut Sun	L 65-70	1269.71	1534.37	17.89%	82.11%	-5.73	2-14
2020-09-03	Atlanta Dream	L 56-62	1263.98	1318.58	42.21%	57.79%	-14.81	2-15
2020-09-05	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 67-83	1249.17	1558.21	14.44%	85.56%	-8.27	2-16
2020-09-08	Los Angeles Sparks	L 70-96	1240.90	1635.75	9.34%	90.66%	-6.82	2-17
2020-09-10	@ Indiana Fever	L 75-85	1234.08	1318.40	38.10%	61.90%	-17.25	2-18
2020-09-12	Washington Mystics	L 58-75	1216.83	1472.19	18.69%	81.31%	-11.04	2-19
2020-09-13	Dallas Wings	L 79-82	1205.79	1395.73	25.10%	74.90%	-6.22	2-20
2020-07-25	Los Angeles Sparks	L 76-99	1457.48	1530.55	39.64%	60.36%	-27.22	0-1
2020-07-29	@ Indiana Fever	L 100-106	1430.26	1455.81	46.33%	53.67%	-16.25	0-2
2020-07-31	Las Vegas Aces	W 102-95	1414.01	1554.90	30.77%	69.23%	+26.23	1-2
2020-08-02	@ New York Liberty	W 96-67	1440.24	1331.88	65.11%	34.89%	+26.90	2-2
2020-08-04	@ Atlanta Dream	W 81-74	1467.14	1384.60	61.66%	38.34%	+14.53	3-2
2020-08-06	Chicago Sky	W 96-86	1481.67	1589.69	34.94%	65.06%	+29.46	4-2
2020-08-08	@ Seattle Storm	L 68-74	1511.13	1588.09	39.10%	60.90%	-13.71	4-3
2020-08-10	@ Dallas Wings	W 91-79	1497.42	1409.38	62.41%	37.59%	+18.65	5-3
2020-08-12	@ Chicago Sky	L 71-89	1516.07	1548.17	45.39%	54.61%	-27.58	5-4
2020-08-14	Atlanta Dream	W 96-80	1488.49	1318.04	72.73%	27.27%	+15.61	6-4
2020-08-16	Dallas Wings	L 89-95	1504.10	1369.99	68.40%	31.60%	-23.99	6-5
2020-08-19	@ Los Angeles Sparks	L 74-83	1480.11	1620.28	30.86%	69.14%	-13.25	6-6
2020-08-21	Minnesota Lynx	L 80-90	1466.86	1582.80	33.91%	66.09%	-15.36	6-7
2020-08-23	@ Washington Mystics	W 88-87	1451.50	1482.35	45.57%	54.43%	+7.80	7-7
2020-08-28	Washington Mystics	W 94-72	1459.30	1474.56	47.80%	52.20%	+35.06	8-7
2020-08-30	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 83-79	1494.36	1583.88	37.39%	62.61%	+17.93	9-7
2020-09-01	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 92-85	1512.29	1689.24	26.53%	73.47%	+27.83	10-7
2020-09-03	Indiana Fever	W 105-81	1540.12	1356.48	74.21%	25.79%	+18.09	11-7
2020-09-05	New York Liberty	W 83-67	1558.21	1249.17	85.56%	14.44%	+8.27	12-7
2020-09-07	Connecticut Sun	L 70-85	1566.48	1537.80	54.12%	45.88%	-30.01	12-8
2020-09-09	@ Connecticut Sun	W 100-95	1536.47	1567.81	45.50%	54.50%	+17.45	13-8
2020-09-11	Seattle Storm	L 60-83	1553.92	1715.73	28.26%	71.74%	-19.41	13-9
2020-07-25	@ New York Liberty	W 87-71	1512.63	1389.45	67.02%	32.98%	+18.89	1-0
2020-07-28	Minnesota Lynx	W 90-66	1531.52	1550.99	47.20%	52.80%	+37.04	2-0
2020-07-30	@ Washington Mystics	L 71-89	1568.56	1663.55	36.66%	63.34%	-22.27	2-1
2020-08-01	Los Angeles Sparks	W 81-75	1546.29	1543.28	50.43%	49.57%	+17.39	3-1
2020-08-04	Connecticut Sun	W 87-74	1563.68	1500.68	58.97%	41.03%	+21.18	4-1
2020-08-06	@ Atlanta Dream	W 93-92	1584.86	1370.07	77.49%	22.51%	+3.23	5-1
2020-08-08	Phoenix Mercury	W 74-68	1588.09	1511.13	60.90%	39.10%	+13.71	6-1
2020-08-10	Chicago Sky	W 89-71	1601.80	1576.32	53.66%	46.34%	+28.16	7-1
2020-08-12	Atlanta Dream	W 100-63	1629.96	1331.27	84.80%	15.20%	+13.23	8-1
2020-08-14	@ Dallas Wings	W 83-65	1643.19	1380.99	81.90%	18.10%	+11.00	9-1
2020-08-16	@ Connecticut Sun	W 95-72	1654.19	1530.14	67.13%	32.87%	+22.57	10-1
2020-08-18	New York Liberty	W 105-64	1676.76	1285.57	90.48%	9.52%	+8.73	11-1
2020-08-20	@ Indiana Fever	L 84-90	1685.49	1420.84	82.10%	17.90%	-28.80	11-2
2020-08-22	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 74-82	1656.69	1659.05	49.66%	50.34%	-20.11	11-3
2020-08-25	Indiana Fever	W 87-74	1636.58	1435.28	76.11%	23.89%	+12.33	12-3
2020-08-29	@ Chicago Sky	W 88-74	1648.91	1591.33	58.21%	41.79%	+22.39	13-3
2020-09-02	Washington Mystics	W 71-64	1671.30	1419.14	81.02%	18.98%	+7.19	14-3
2020-09-04	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 90-89	1678.49	1628.22	57.18%	42.82%	+6.13	15-3
2020-09-06	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 103-88	1684.62	1627.91	58.09%	41.91%	+23.25	16-3
2020-09-09	Dallas Wings	W 107-95	1707.87	1417.76	84.16%	15.84%	+7.86	17-3
2020-09-11	@ Phoenix Mercury	W 83-60	1715.73	1553.92	71.74%	28.26%	+19.41	18-3
2020-09-13	Las Vegas Aces	L 84-86	1735.14	1728.36	50.97%	49.03%	-10.33	18-4
2020-07-25	Indiana Fever	W 101-76	1631.28	1476.65	70.89%	29.11%	+20.84	1-0
2020-07-28	@ Connecticut Sun	W 94-89	1652.12	1549.89	64.30%	35.70%	+11.43	2-0
2020-07-30	Seattle Storm	W 89-71	1663.55	1568.56	63.34%	36.66%	+22.27	3-0
2020-08-01	@ Chicago Sky	L 86-88	1685.82	1569.20	66.18%	33.82%	-13.40	3-1
2020-08-05	Las Vegas Aces	L 77-83	1672.42	1544.75	67.59%	32.41%	-23.71	3-2
2020-08-07	New York Liberty	L 66-74	1648.71	1290.47	88.72%	11.28%	-35.93	3-3
2020-08-09	@ Indiana Fever	L 84-91	1612.78	1448.20	72.06%	27.94%	-27.30	3-4
2020-08-11	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 48-68	1585.48	1543.29	56.04%	43.96%	-35.89	3-5
2020-08-13	Los Angeles Sparks	L 64-81	1549.59	1576.37	46.15%	53.85%	-27.25	3-6
2020-08-15	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 73-88	1522.34	1628.12	35.23%	64.77%	-19.54	3-7
2020-08-19	Atlanta Dream	W 98-91	1502.80	1289.25	77.37%	22.63%	+8.57	4-7
2020-08-21	@ Dallas Wings	L 92-101	1511.37	1384.01	67.55%	32.45%	-29.02	4-8
2020-08-23	Phoenix Mercury	L 87-88	1482.35	1451.50	54.43%	45.57%	-7.79	4-9
2020-08-28	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 72-94	1474.56	1459.30	52.20%	47.80%	-35.06	4-10
2020-08-30	Connecticut Sun	L 63-76	1439.50	1514.01	39.44%	60.56%	-20.36	4-11
2020-09-02	@ Seattle Storm	L 64-71	1419.14	1671.30	18.98%	81.02%	-7.19	4-12
2020-09-04	Chicago Sky	W 79-69	1411.95	1576.56	27.94%	72.06%	+32.63	5-12
2020-09-06	Dallas Wings	L 94-101	1444.58	1396.20	56.92%	43.08%	-21.56	5-13
2020-09-08	Minnesota Lynx	W 89-86	1423.02	1604.67	26.01%	73.99%	+18.35	6-13
2020-09-10	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 80-72	1441.37	1642.57	23.90%	76.10%	+30.82	7-13
2020-09-12	@ New York Liberty	W 75-58	1472.19	1216.83	81.31%	18.69%	+11.04	8-13
2020-09-13	@ Atlanta Dream	W 85-78	1483.23	1387.27	63.47%	36.53%	+13.84	9-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2020-09-15	Connecticut Sun	L 81-94	1513.57	1521.92	48.80%	51.20%	-25.20	0-1
2020-09-15	@ Chicago Sky	W 94-81	1521.92	1513.57	51.20%	48.80%	+25.19	1-0
2020-09-17	@ Los Angeles Sparks	W 73-59	1547.11	1592.26	43.54%	56.46%	+30.25	2-0
2020-09-20	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 87-62	1577.36	1738.69	28.32%	71.68%	+51.33	3-0
2020-09-22	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 75-83	1628.69	1687.36	41.64%	58.36%	-16.87	3-1
2020-09-24	Las Vegas Aces	W 77-68	1611.82	1704.23	37.01%	62.99%	+27.07	4-1
2020-09-27	Las Vegas Aces	L 75-84	1638.89	1677.17	44.51%	55.49%	-19.13	4-2
2020-09-29	@ Las Vegas Aces	L 63-66	1619.76	1696.29	39.16%	60.84%	-9.71	4-3
2020-09-20	Connecticut Sun	L 62-87	1738.69	1577.36	71.68%	28.32%	-51.33	0-1
2020-09-22	Connecticut Sun	W 83-75	1687.36	1628.69	58.36%	41.64%	+16.87	1-1
2020-09-24	@ Connecticut Sun	L 68-77	1704.23	1611.82	62.99%	37.01%	-27.06	1-2
2020-09-27	@ Connecticut Sun	W 84-75	1677.17	1638.89	55.49%	44.51%	+19.12	2-2
2020-09-29	Connecticut Sun	W 66-63	1696.29	1619.76	60.84%	39.16%	+9.71	3-2
2020-10-02	Seattle Storm	L 80-93	1706.00	1761.41	42.09%	57.91%	-21.73	3-3
2020-10-04	Seattle Storm	L 91-104	1684.27	1783.15	36.14%	63.86%	-18.66	3-4
2020-10-06	@ Seattle Storm	L 59-92	1665.61	1801.81	31.35%	68.65%	-25.79	3-5
2020-09-17	Connecticut Sun	L 59-73	1592.26	1547.11	56.46%	43.54%	-30.25	0-1
2020-09-17	Phoenix Mercury	W 80-79	1576.94	1540.90	55.17%	44.83%	+6.42	1-0
2020-09-22	@ Seattle Storm	L 86-88	1583.36	1724.81	30.70%	69.30%	-6.22	1-1
2020-09-24	@ Seattle Storm	L 79-89	1577.14	1731.03	29.20%	70.80%	-13.22	1-2
2020-09-27	Seattle Storm	L 71-92	1563.92	1744.25	26.15%	73.85%	-17.16	1-3
2020-09-15	Washington Mystics	W 85-84	1534.51	1497.07	55.37%	44.63%	+6.39	1-0
2020-09-17	@ Minnesota Lynx	L 79-80	1540.90	1576.94	44.83%	55.17%	-6.42	1-1
2020-09-22	Minnesota Lynx	W 88-86	1724.81	1583.36	69.30%	30.70%	+6.22	1-0
2020-09-24	Minnesota Lynx	W 89-79	1731.03	1577.14	70.80%	29.20%	+13.22	2-0
2020-09-27	@ Minnesota Lynx	W 92-71	1744.25	1563.92	73.85%	26.15%	+17.16	3-0
2020-10-02	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 93-80	1761.41	1706.00	57.91%	42.09%	+21.74	4-0
2020-10-04	@ Las Vegas Aces	W 104-91	1783.15	1684.27	63.86%	36.14%	+18.66	5-0
2020-10-06	Las Vegas Aces	W 92-59	1801.81	1665.61	68.65%	31.35%	+25.78	6-0
2020-09-15	@ Phoenix Mercury	L 84-85	1497.07	1534.51	44.63%	55.37%	-6.39	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2020-08-07	11.28%	New York Liberty	1290.47	74	@ Washington Mystics	1648.71	66
2	2020-08-25	11.63%	New York Liberty	1256.92	101	@ Chicago Sky	1609.23	99
3	2020-08-23	13.53%	Atlanta Dream	1275.98	78	@ Minnesota Lynx	1598.15	75
4	2020-08-20	17.90%	@ Indiana Fever	1420.84	90	Seattle Storm	1685.49	84
5	2020-09-09	23.78%	Atlanta Dream	1327.96	97	@ Chicago Sky	1530.27	89
6	2020-09-10	23.90%	Washington Mystics	1441.37	80	@ Los Angeles Sparks	1642.57	72
7	2020-09-11	24.93%	Atlanta Dream	1358.83	82	@ Connecticut Sun	1550.36	75
8	2020-09-08	26.01%	@ Washington Mystics	1423.02	89	Minnesota Lynx	1604.67	86
9	2020-09-01	26.53%	Phoenix Mercury	1512.29	92	@ Las Vegas Aces	1689.24	85
10	2020-08-09	27.94%	@ Indiana Fever	1448.20	91	Washington Mystics	1612.78	84
11	2020-09-04	27.94%	@ Washington Mystics	1411.95	79	Chicago Sky	1576.56	69
12	2020-09-20 *	28.32%	Connecticut Sun	1577.36	87	@ Las Vegas Aces	1738.69	62
13	2020-07-31	30.77%	@ Phoenix Mercury	1414.01	102	Las Vegas Aces	1554.90	95
14	2020-08-16	31.60%	Dallas Wings	1369.99	95	@ Phoenix Mercury	1504.10	89
15	2020-08-05	32.41%	Las Vegas Aces	1544.75	83	@ Washington Mystics	1672.42	77
16	2020-08-21	32.45%	@ Dallas Wings	1384.01	101	Washington Mystics	1511.37	92
17	2020-08-01	33.82%	@ Chicago Sky	1569.20	88	Washington Mystics	1685.82	86
18	2020-08-06	34.94%	@ Phoenix Mercury	1481.67	96	Chicago Sky	1589.69	86
19	2020-09-01	35.78%	@ Atlanta Dream	1286.73	102	Indiana Fever	1388.33	90
20	2020-09-24 *	37.01%	@ Connecticut Sun	1611.82	77	Las Vegas Aces	1704.23	68
21	2020-08-31	37.24%	@ Minnesota Lynx	1565.95	96	Los Angeles Sparks	1656.65	78
22	2020-08-30	37.39%	Phoenix Mercury	1494.36	83	@ Minnesota Lynx	1583.88	79
23	2020-08-18	39.61%	@ Chicago Sky	1574.39	84	Las Vegas Aces	1647.66	82
24	2020-07-30	40.43%	@ Minnesota Lynx	1513.95	83	Chicago Sky	1581.26	81
25	2020-08-14	41.43%	Connecticut Sun	1515.61	77	@ Chicago Sky	1575.75	74

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2020-09-20 *	51.33	Connecticut Sun	87	1577.36	28.32%	@ Las Vegas Aces	62	1738.69	71.68%
2	2020-08-31	38.13	@ Minnesota Lynx	96	1565.95	37.24%	Los Angeles Sparks	78	1656.65	62.76%
3	2020-07-28	37.04	@ Seattle Storm	90	1531.52	47.20%	Minnesota Lynx	66	1550.99	52.80%
4	2020-08-07	35.93	New York Liberty	74	1290.47	11.28%	@ Washington Mystics	66	1648.71	88.72%
5	2020-08-11	35.89	@ Minnesota Lynx	68	1543.29	43.96%	Washington Mystics	48	1585.48	56.04%
6	2020-08-28	35.06	@ Phoenix Mercury	94	1459.30	47.80%	Washington Mystics	72	1474.56	52.20%
7	2020-09-04	32.63	@ Washington Mystics	79	1411.95	27.94%	Chicago Sky	69	1576.56	72.06%
8	2020-08-09	32.10	@ Los Angeles Sparks	97	1533.28	43.97%	Minnesota Lynx	81	1575.39	56.03%
9	2020-09-01	31.85	@ Atlanta Dream	102	1286.73	35.78%	Indiana Fever	90	1388.33	64.22%
10	2020-07-28	31.04	@ Chicago Sky	96	1550.22	48.91%	Los Angeles Sparks	78	1557.77	51.09%
11	2020-09-09	30.87	Atlanta Dream	97	1327.96	23.78%	@ Chicago Sky	89	1530.27	76.22%
12	2020-09-10	30.82	Washington Mystics	80	1441.37	23.90%	@ Los Angeles Sparks	72	1642.57	76.10%
13	2020-09-17 *	30.25	Connecticut Sun	73	1547.11	43.54%	@ Los Angeles Sparks	59	1592.26	56.46%
14	2020-09-07	30.01	Connecticut Sun	85	1537.80	45.88%	@ Phoenix Mercury	70	1566.48	54.12%
15	2020-08-06	29.47	@ Phoenix Mercury	96	1481.67	34.94%	Chicago Sky	86	1589.69	65.06%
16	2020-08-21	29.02	@ Dallas Wings	101	1384.01	32.45%	Washington Mystics	92	1511.37	67.55%
17	2020-08-20	28.80	@ Indiana Fever	90	1420.84	17.90%	Seattle Storm	84	1685.49	82.10%
18	2020-09-11	28.44	Atlanta Dream	82	1358.83	24.93%	@ Connecticut Sun	75	1550.36	75.07%
19	2020-08-06	28.16	Connecticut Sun	91	1479.49	59.00%	@ Dallas Wings	68	1416.28	41.00%
20	2020-08-10	28.16	@ Seattle Storm	89	1601.80	53.66%	Chicago Sky	71	1576.32	46.34%
21	2020-08-18	27.96	@ Connecticut Sun	84	1507.57	58.38%	Indiana Fever	62	1448.80	41.62%
22	2020-09-01	27.83	Phoenix Mercury	92	1512.29	26.53%	@ Las Vegas Aces	85	1689.24	73.47%
23	2020-07-29	27.66	@ Las Vegas Aces	100	1527.24	64.74%	Atlanta Dream	70	1421.72	35.26%
24	2020-08-12	27.58	@ Chicago Sky	89	1548.17	54.61%	Phoenix Mercury	71	1516.07	45.39%
25	2020-08-09	27.30	@ Indiana Fever	91	1448.20	27.94%	Washington Mystics	84	1612.78	72.06%