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1960-61 Prva savezna liga Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Partizan

32 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Hajduk Split

5.07 points above expected

30 points · 24.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Radnicki Beograd

9.98 points below expected

8 points · 17.98 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Partizan 22 15 2 5 32 52 23 +29 27.84 +4.16
2 Red Star Belgrade 22 13 5 4 31 39 21 +18 27.29 +3.71
3 Hajduk Split 22 13 4 5 30 36 22 +14 24.93 +5.07
4 Dinamo Zagreb 22 10 7 5 27 37 27 +10 24.65 +2.35
5 Vojvodina 22 10 3 9 23 32 30 +2 24.91 -1.91
6 OFK Beograd 22 8 7 7 23 30 30 0 21.71 +1.29
7 Rijeka 22 10 2 10 22 31 36 -5 20.22 +1.78
8 Sarajevo 22 6 6 10 18 33 39 -6 19.90 -1.90
9 Velez Mostar 22 5 7 10 17 27 39 -12 18.26 -1.26
10 Vardar 22 6 5 11 17 21 37 -16 15.01 +1.99
11 RNK Split 22 5 6 11 16 31 40 -9 21.30 -5.30
12 Radnicki Beograd 22 4 0 18 8 34 59 -25 17.98 -9.98

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Hajduk Split 30 24.93 +5.07
2 Partizan 32 27.84 +4.16
3 Red Star Belgrade 31 27.29 +3.71
4 Dinamo Zagreb 27 24.65 +2.35
5 Vardar 17 15.01 +1.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Radnicki Beograd 8 17.98 -9.98
2 RNK Split 16 21.30 -5.30
3 Vojvodina 23 24.91 -1.91
4 Sarajevo 18 19.90 -1.90
5 Velez Mostar 17 18.26 -1.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vardar 3 Mar 26 – Apr 9 1 in 200
2 Red Star Belgrade 6 Apr 16 – Jun 11 1 in 132
3 Rijeka 3 Oct 2 – Oct 23 1 in 29
4 Hajduk Split 4 Apr 30 – Jun 11 1 in 24
5 Dinamo Zagreb 4 Oct 2 – Oct 30 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vojvodina 3 Nov 20 – Dec 4 1 in 109
2 Radnicki Beograd 6 Apr 16 – Jun 11 1 in 70
3 Red Star Belgrade 2 Mar 26 – Apr 2 1 in 47
4 RNK Split 4 Mar 26 – Apr 16 1 in 35
5 Vardar 5 Oct 16 – Nov 13 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vardar 5 Mar 19 – Apr 16 1 in 81
2 Dinamo Zagreb 8 Sep 25 – Nov 20 1 in 55
3 Hajduk Split 8 Oct 23 – Mar 12 1 in 30
4 Red Star Belgrade 7 Apr 9 – Jun 11 1 in 27
5 RNK Split 4 Nov 13 – Dec 4 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 RNK Split 8 Mar 26 – May 21 1 in 55
2 Vojvodina 4 Nov 20 – Mar 12 1 in 28
3 Velez Mostar 6 Sep 18 – Oct 30 1 in 14
4 Sarajevo 4 Apr 30 – Jun 11 1 in 9
5 Hajduk Split 4 Sep 18 – Oct 16 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Partizan 1741 32 +7 8 7.9 +0.1
Red Star Belgrade 1735 31 +45 10 5.8 +4.2
Hajduk Split 1707 30 +30 8 5.3 +2.7
Dinamo Zagreb 1662 27 -9 5 6.1 -1.1
Vojvodina 1626 23 -13 6 6.1 -0.1
OFK Beograd 1573 23 -20 3 4.4 -1.4
Rijeka 1535 22 -20 2 4.0 -2.0
Sarajevo 1556 18 -6 4 5.2 -1.2
Vardar 1442 17 +22 5 3.0 +2.0
Velez Mostar 1503 17 +14 5 3.6 +1.4
RNK Split 1566 16 -19 4 5.3 -1.3
Radnicki Beograd 1460 8 -32 0 3.4 -3.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team DZ HS OB PAR RS RB RSB RIJ SAR VAR VM VOJ
Dinamo Zagreb —
0-0-2
2.81
1-1-0
3.25
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
3.05
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.42
1-1-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.08
1-1-0
3.76
0-1-1
2.94
Hajduk Split
2-0-0
2.77
—
1-1-0
3.24
0-1-1
2.47
1-1-0
3.26
2-0-0
3.56
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
3.58
1-0-1
3.32
1-0-1
4.15
0-1-1
3.71
2-0-0
2.74
OFK Beograd
0-1-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.34
—
1-0-1
2.08
1-1-0
2.76
1-0-1
3.28
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-0
2.99
1-1-0
2.97
1-1-0
3.57
1-0-1
3.30
1-1-0
2.33
Partizan
1-1-0
3.05
1-1-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.49
—
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
4.95
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
3.78
1-0-1
4.46
2-0-0
3.80
2-0-0
3.06
RNK Split
0-0-2
2.52
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
2.81
0-0-2
2.36
—
2-0-0
3.08
0-1-1
2.14
0-0-2
3.14
1-0-1
3.07
0-2-0
3.44
0-1-1
3.29
2-0-0
2.38
Radnicki Beograd
0-0-2
2.02
0-0-2
2.03
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
0.68
0-0-2
2.50
—
0-0-2
1.78
0-0-2
2.72
1-0-1
2.64
0-0-2
3.21
1-0-1
2.86
1-0-1
1.87
Red Star Belgrade
1-1-0
2.93
1-0-1
2.97
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.65
1-1-0
3.44
2-0-0
3.81
—
1-0-1
3.69
1-1-0
3.52
1-0-1
4.26
1-1-0
3.73
1-1-0
2.91
Rijeka
0-1-1
2.17
0-0-2
2.00
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
1.81
2-0-0
2.44
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
1.90
—
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.03
0-0-2
2.32
Sarajevo
0-1-1
2.24
1-0-1
2.26
0-1-1
2.61
1-0-1
1.81
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.93
0-1-1
2.06
1-0-1
2.90
—
1-1-0
3.54
0-2-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.23
Vardar
0-0-2
1.52
1-0-1
1.45
0-1-1
2.03
1-0-1
1.16
0-2-0
2.15
2-0-0
2.36
1-0-1
1.35
0-0-2
2.17
0-1-1
2.05
—
1-1-0
2.15
0-0-2
1.45
Velez Mostar
0-1-1
1.83
1-1-0
1.87
1-0-1
2.28
0-0-2
1.80
1-1-0
2.29
1-0-1
2.71
0-1-1
1.86
1-0-1
2.55
0-2-0
2.51
0-1-1
3.43
—
0-0-2
2.08
Vojvodina
1-1-0
2.63
0-0-2
2.84
0-1-1
3.24
0-0-2
2.52
0-0-2
3.20
1-0-1
3.72
0-1-1
2.66
2-0-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.34
2-0-0
4.15
2-0-0
3.51
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.39 +6.0
Allowed 0.94 -6.6
Differential 0.93 +4.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.82%6.82%6.82%3.41%1.52%1.52%26.89%
16.82%9.09%5.68%5.68%1.14%0.76%29.17%
26.82%5.68%4.55%2.65%1.52%1.14%22.35%
33.41%5.68%2.65%—0.38%0.76%12.88%
41.52%1.14%1.52%0.38%——4.55%
5+1.52%0.76%1.14%0.76%——4.17%
Total26.89%29.17%22.35%12.88%4.55%4.17%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 1.53 +0.00
SD 1.38 1.38 2.05
CV 0.91 0.91 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%————13.64%
113.64%18.18%4.55%—9.09%—45.45%
29.09%—4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total36.36%36.36%9.09%4.55%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.23 +0.45
SD 1.43 1.38 1.87
CV 0.85 1.12 —
Max 6 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
118.18%9.09%4.55%———31.82%
29.09%9.09%4.55%———22.73%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total40.91%31.82%18.18%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.00 +0.64
SD 1.43 1.11 2.06
CV 0.88 1.11 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
14.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
29.09%9.09%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total18.18%45.45%27.27%4.55%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.36 +0.00
SD 1.09 1.14 1.54
CV 0.80 0.83 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%———9.09%
113.64%4.55%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
29.09%——4.55%——13.64%
39.09%—9.09%———18.18%
49.09%—4.55%———13.64%
5+4.55%—9.09%———13.64%
Total50.00%4.55%36.36%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.36 1.05 +1.32
SD 1.62 1.13 1.99
CV 0.69 1.08 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%13.64%—4.55%4.55%36.36%
1—18.18%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
24.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%——4.55%——9.09%
Total22.73%22.73%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.82 -0.41
SD 1.71 1.47 2.40
CV 1.21 0.81 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
1——13.64%9.09%—4.55%27.27%
24.55%——18.18%4.55%—27.27%
34.55%4.55%——4.55%4.55%18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total9.09%13.64%22.73%31.82%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.68 -1.14
SD 1.18 1.64 2.14
CV 0.77 0.61 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%—4.55%——27.27%
14.55%4.55%————9.09%
29.09%18.18%9.09%———36.36%
3—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%54.55%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 0.95 +0.82
SD 1.41 0.79 1.62
CV 0.80 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%27.27%
19.09%4.55%4.55%9.09%——27.27%
29.09%18.18%—4.55%4.55%—36.36%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total27.27%27.27%13.64%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.64 -0.23
SD 1.37 1.47 2.05
CV 0.97 0.90 —
Max 6 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%—4.55%——22.73%
1—9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%—31.82%
24.55%—9.09%——4.55%18.18%
39.09%9.09%4.55%——4.55%27.27%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%22.73%13.64%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.77 -0.27
SD 1.14 1.54 1.86
CV 0.76 0.87 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%9.09%4.55%—4.55%45.45%
19.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
2——4.55%———4.55%
3—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%31.82%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.95 1.68 -0.73
SD 1.13 1.55 1.91
CV 1.19 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%——27.27%
213.64%—18.18%——4.55%36.36%
3———————
4———————
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total27.27%9.09%36.36%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.77 -0.55
SD 1.19 1.41 1.84
CV 0.97 0.80 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%13.64%9.09%9.09%4.55%—40.91%
14.55%9.09%—4.55%——18.18%
2—13.64%————13.64%
3—13.64%————13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%50.00%13.64%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.36 +0.09
SD 1.60 1.09 2.29
CV 1.10 0.80 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Partizan 1741 32 27.84 +4.16 94.0% 20 21 26 28 30 33 36
Red Star Belgrade 1735 31 27.29 +3.71 89.0% 19 21 25 27 30 34 37
Hajduk Split 1707 30 24.93 +5.07 94.0% 17 19 22 25 27 31 34
Dinamo Zagreb 1662 27 24.65 +2.35 74.0% 16 19 22 25 28 31 34
Vojvodina 1626 23 24.91 -1.91 33.0% 18 19 22 25 27 31 35
OFK Beograd 1573 23 21.71 +1.29 60.0% 11 15 19 22 25 28 30
RNK Split 1566 16 21.30 -5.30 9.0% 11 15 19 21 24 27 30
Sarajevo 1556 18 19.90 -1.90 31.0% 9 12 18 20 22 25 29
Rijeka 1535 22 20.22 +1.78 72.0% 9 14 18 20 23 26 29
Velez Mostar 1503 17 18.26 -1.26 41.0% 10 13 16 18 21 23 29
Radnicki Beograd 1460 8 17.98 -9.98 1.0% 8 12 16 18 20 23 26
Vardar 1442 17 15.01 +1.99 77.0% 6 8 13 15 17 21 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 33.5% * Slight Edge: 33.5% to 40% * Clear Edge: 40% to 45.5% * Strong Edge: 45.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+35.61%
Slight Edge
57.58%20.45%21.97%
Elo Value
Home Edge
163 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0129.37500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.93 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.80+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 7 * Wide Open: 7 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.05 * Tight Race: 0.05 to 0.09 * Comfortable: 0.09 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
One-Team Race
145710
Champion Preseason Odds
35%
Partizan, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.93 * Some Luck: 2.93 to 4.39 * Lucky: 4.39 to 5.85 * Wild Swing: 5.85 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.56 * Close: 1.56 to 2.34 * Off: 2.34 to 3.12 * Way Off: 3.12 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.16 points
Some Luck
03.669
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.954
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.00%
Partizan
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
1.00%
Radnicki Beograd
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.09 * Even: 0.09 to 0.11 * Top-Heavy: 0.11 to 0.16 * Lopsided: 0.16 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.15 * Moderate Separation: 1.15 to 1.35 * Strong Separation: 1.35 to 1.65 * Wide Separation: 1.65 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61% * Slight Edge: 61% to 63.5% * Clear Edge: 63.5% to 67% * Wide Edge: 67% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 86.5% * Strong Edge: 86.5% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 64% * Very Frequent: 64% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 20.5% * Very Frequent: 20.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Lopsided
00.090.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 102.42
1.72
Wide Separation
0.91.151.351.652.5
Interquartile Edge
70%
Wide Edge
50%61%67%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Clear Edge
50%89%100%
Close Games
Expected
52%
Few
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
20%
Frequent
0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.54 * Slight Separation: 0.54 to 0.62 * Notable Separation: 0.62 to 0.69 * Lopsided: 0.69 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 13.5% * As Expected: 13.5% to 15.5% * Upset-Prone: 15.5% to 20% * Very Upset-Prone: 20% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 18.5% * Very Shaky: 18.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.54
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Very Even
00.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.76
Near-Lock
00.470.61
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Upset-Prone
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.74
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.058
Well Within Noise
00.1190.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Partizan35.00%25.00%16.00%16.00%3.00%3.00%—1.00%1.00%———
Red Star Belgrade32.00%22.00%17.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%5.00%5.00%————
Hajduk Split8.00%16.00%16.00%13.00%17.00%14.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%—
Dinamo Zagreb9.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%14.00%17.00%14.00%3.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%—
Vojvodina13.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%—
OFK Beograd1.00%3.00%15.00%14.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%6.00%9.00%8.00%8.00%5.00%
Rijeka—4.00%2.00%5.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%17.00%14.00%14.00%7.00%6.00%
Sarajevo—1.00%3.00%4.00%7.00%12.00%15.00%13.00%18.00%15.00%5.00%7.00%
Velez Mostar1.00%——2.00%2.00%6.00%8.00%16.00%17.00%15.00%20.00%13.00%
Vardar——1.00%1.00%1.00%—3.00%5.00%3.00%13.00%27.00%46.00%
RNK Split1.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%13.00%4.00%6.00%
Radnicki Beograd———2.00%4.00%3.00%5.00%12.00%13.00%18.00%26.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Partizan 100% —
Red Star Belgrade 100% —
Dinamo Zagreb 99.00% 1.00%
Hajduk Split 99.00% 1.00%
Vojvodina 99.00% 1.00%
RNK Split 90.00% 10.00%
Sarajevo 88.00% 12.00%
OFK Beograd 87.00% 13.00%
Rijeka 87.00% 13.00%
Velez Mostar 67.00% 33.00%
Radnicki Beograd 57.00% 43.00%
Vardar 27.00% 73.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1960-09-18 Vojvodina L 2-473.0 1674 1665 62.75% 21.20% 16.05%+0.85 -18.4 0
1960-09-18 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 4-273.0 1665 1674 16.05% 21.20% 62.75%-0.85 +18.4 2
1960-09-18 Hajduk Split D 1-170.7 1564 1650 53.25% 21.64% 25.11%+0.27 -1.3 1
1960-09-18 @ OFK Beograd D 1-170.7 1650 1564 25.11% 21.64% 53.25%-0.27 +1.3 1
1960-09-18 Sarajevo W 4-148.0 1542 1563 60.03% 21.39% 18.58%+0.66 +10.3 2
1960-09-18 @ Radnicki Beograd L 1-448.0 1563 1542 18.58% 21.39% 60.03%-0.66 -10.3 0
1960-09-18 Vardar W 1-041.3 1513 1438 67.79% 20.64% 11.57%+1.26 +2.9 2
1960-09-18 @ Rijeka L 0-141.3 1438 1513 11.57% 20.64% 67.79%-1.26 -2.9 0
1960-09-18 Partizan L 2-470.1 1606 1677 54.91% 21.61% 23.48%+0.36 -16.1 0
1960-09-18 @ RNK Split W 4-270.1 1677 1606 23.48% 21.61% 54.91%-0.36 +16.1 2
1960-09-18 Red Star Belgrade D 2-276.0 1521 1693 42.33% 21.65% 36.03%-0.26 -0.2 1
1960-09-18 @ Velez Mostar D 2-276.0 1693 1521 36.03% 21.65% 42.33%+0.26 +0.2 1
1960-09-25 Velez Mostar D 2-275.5 1652 1521 71.26% 20.02% 8.72%+1.60 -2.3 2
1960-09-25 @ Hajduk Split D 2-275.5 1521 1652 8.72% 20.02% 71.26%-1.60 +2.3 2
1960-09-25 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-172.9 1693 1655 65.11% 20.98% 13.91%+1.03 -2.5 3
1960-09-25 @ Partizan D 1-172.9 1655 1693 13.91% 20.98% 65.11%-1.03 +2.5 1
1960-09-25 RNK Split L 2-468.1 1552 1589 58.46% 21.47% 20.06%+0.56 -17.1 2
1960-09-25 @ Radnicki Beograd W 4-268.1 1589 1552 20.06% 21.47% 58.46%-0.56 +17.1 2
1960-09-25 Red Star Belgrade D 1-171.3 1553 1693 46.55% 21.69% 31.76%-0.07 -0.7 1
1960-09-25 @ Sarajevo D 1-171.3 1693 1553 31.76% 21.69% 46.55%+0.07 +0.7 2
1960-09-25 OFK Beograd L 1-356.1 1435 1563 48.21% 21.69% 30.10%+0.01 -16.0 0
1960-09-25 @ Vardar W 3-156.1 1563 1435 30.10% 21.69% 48.21%-0.01 +16.0 3
1960-09-25 Rijeka W 5-041.1 1683 1516 73.20% 19.55% 7.25%+1.82 +8.1 4
1960-09-25 @ Vojvodina L 0-541.1 1516 1683 7.25% 19.55% 73.20%-1.82 -8.1 2
1960-10-02 Radnicki Beograd W 2-044.8 1658 1535 70.81% 20.11% 9.08%+1.55 +4.3 3
1960-10-02 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-244.8 1535 1658 9.08% 20.11% 70.81%-1.55 -4.3 2
1960-10-02 Vojvodina W 1-056.0 1579 1691 50.15% 21.69% 28.16%+0.11 +6.4 5
1960-10-02 @ OFK Beograd L 0-156.0 1691 1579 28.16% 21.69% 50.15%-0.11 -6.3 4
1960-10-02 Hajduk Split W 2-157.2 1694 1649 65.60% 20.92% 13.47%+1.07 +3.2 4
1960-10-02 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-257.2 1649 1694 13.47% 20.92% 65.60%-1.07 -3.1 2
1960-10-02 Partizan W 2-162.4 1508 1691 40.81% 21.62% 37.57%-0.33 +7.5 4
1960-10-02 @ Rijeka L 1-262.4 1691 1508 37.57% 21.62% 40.81%+0.33 -7.5 3
1960-10-02 Sarajevo W 5-356.8 1607 1552 66.36% 20.83% 12.80%+1.13 +4.4 4
1960-10-02 @ RNK Split L 3-556.8 1552 1607 12.80% 20.83% 66.36%-1.13 -4.4 1
1960-10-02 Vardar D 0-058.3 1523 1419 69.67% 20.33% 10.00%+1.43 -3.3 3
1960-10-02 @ Velez Mostar D 0-058.3 1419 1523 10.00% 20.33% 69.67%-1.43 +3.3 1
1960-10-16 OFK Beograd W 2-046.8 1683 1585 69.28% 20.40% 10.31%+1.40 +4.9 5
1960-10-16 @ Partizan L 0-246.8 1585 1683 10.31% 20.40% 69.28%-1.40 -4.9 5
1960-10-16 Rijeka L 1-265.3 1530 1515 63.27% 21.16% 15.57%+0.89 -12.0 2
1960-10-16 @ Radnicki Beograd W 2-165.3 1515 1530 15.57% 21.16% 63.27%-0.89 +12.0 6
1960-10-16 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-164.7 1611 1662 57.09% 21.53% 21.38%+0.48 -11.5 4
1960-10-16 @ RNK Split W 1-064.7 1662 1611 21.38% 21.53% 57.09%-0.48 +11.5 5
1960-10-16 Hajduk Split W 3-048.0 1548 1646 51.78% 21.67% 26.55%+0.19 +16.6 3
1960-10-16 @ Sarajevo L 0-348.0 1646 1548 26.55% 21.67% 51.78%-0.19 -16.5 2
1960-10-16 Red Star Belgrade L 1-257.4 1423 1697 28.63% 21.15% 50.22%-0.89 -6.0 1
1960-10-16 @ Vardar W 2-157.4 1697 1423 50.22% 21.15% 28.63%+0.89 +6.0 6
1960-10-16 Velez Mostar W 4-041.0 1685 1520 73.09% 19.58% 7.33%+1.81 +6.6 6
1960-10-16 @ Vojvodina L 0-441.0 1520 1685 7.33% 19.58% 73.09%-1.81 -6.6 3
1960-10-23 Sarajevo W 3-151.3 1673 1564 70.01% 20.27% 9.72%+1.47 +4.0 7
1960-10-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-351.3 1564 1673 9.72% 20.27% 70.01%-1.47 -4.0 3
1960-10-23 Vardar W 5-035.9 1630 1417 75.36% 18.90% 5.74%+2.11 +6.4 4
1960-10-23 @ Hajduk Split L 0-535.9 1417 1630 5.74% 18.90% 75.36%-2.11 -6.4 1
1960-10-23 Radnicki Beograd W 2-043.4 1581 1518 66.90% 20.76% 12.33%+1.18 +5.8 7
1960-10-23 @ OFK Beograd L 0-243.4 1518 1581 12.33% 20.76% 66.90%-1.18 -5.8 2
1960-10-23 Vojvodina W 3-155.3 1703 1692 62.97% 21.18% 15.85%+0.87 +6.3 8
1960-10-23 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-355.3 1692 1703 15.85% 21.18% 62.97%-0.87 -6.3 6
1960-10-23 RNK Split W 2-047.9 1527 1600 54.83% 21.61% 23.56%+0.35 +10.3 8
1960-10-23 @ Rijeka L 0-247.9 1600 1527 23.56% 21.61% 54.83%-0.35 -10.3 4
1960-10-23 Partizan L 2-560.8 1513 1688 41.93% 21.64% 36.43%-0.28 -17.4 3
1960-10-23 @ Velez Mostar W 5-260.8 1688 1513 36.43% 21.64% 41.93%+0.28 +17.4 7
1960-10-30 Rijeka W 3-042.5 1677 1538 71.76% 19.91% 8.33%+1.66 +5.8 9
1960-10-30 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-342.5 1538 1677 8.33% 19.91% 71.76%-1.66 -5.8 8
1960-10-30 Red Star Belgrade W 3-048.0 1705 1709 61.64% 21.29% 17.07%+0.77 +11.3 9
1960-10-30 @ Partizan L 0-348.0 1709 1705 17.07% 21.29% 61.64%-0.77 -11.3 8
1960-10-30 Velez Mostar W 3-146.5 1513 1496 63.42% 21.14% 15.44%+0.90 +6.2 4
1960-10-30 @ Radnicki Beograd L 1-346.5 1496 1513 15.44% 21.14% 63.42%-0.90 -6.2 3
1960-10-30 OFK Beograd D 1-170.0 1589 1586 62.23% 21.24% 16.52%+0.81 -2.2 5
1960-10-30 @ RNK Split D 1-170.0 1586 1589 16.52% 21.24% 62.23%-0.81 +2.2 8
1960-10-30 Vardar W 3-034.6 1560 1410 72.30% 19.78% 7.92%+1.72 +5.5 5
1960-10-30 @ Sarajevo L 0-334.6 1410 1560 7.92% 19.78% 72.30%-1.72 -5.5 1
1960-10-30 Hajduk Split L 0-167.8 1685 1636 65.96% 20.88% 13.16%+1.10 -13.2 6
1960-10-30 @ Vojvodina W 1-067.8 1636 1685 13.16% 20.88% 65.96%-1.10 +13.2 6
1960-11-06 Partizan D 0-068.9 1649 1717 55.35% 21.59% 23.06%+0.38 -1.7 7
1960-11-06 @ Hajduk Split D 0-068.9 1717 1649 23.06% 21.59% 55.35%-0.38 +1.7 10
1960-11-06 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-171.8 1589 1683 52.24% 21.66% 26.09%+0.21 -1.2 9
1960-11-06 @ OFK Beograd D 1-171.8 1683 1589 26.09% 21.66% 52.24%-0.21 +1.2 10
1960-11-06 Radnicki Beograd W 5-145.2 1698 1519 73.79% 19.39% 6.82%+1.90 +5.1 10
1960-11-06 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-545.2 1519 1698 6.82% 19.39% 73.79%-1.90 -5.1 4
1960-11-06 Sarajevo W 3-043.2 1532 1566 58.84% 21.46% 19.70%+0.59 +12.9 10
1960-11-06 @ Rijeka L 0-343.2 1566 1532 19.70% 21.46% 58.84%-0.59 -12.9 5
1960-11-06 Vojvodina L 0-151.4 1405 1672 29.49% 21.21% 49.31%-0.85 -6.5 1
1960-11-06 @ Vardar W 1-051.4 1672 1405 49.31% 21.21% 29.49%+0.85 +6.5 8
1960-11-06 RNK Split W 2-047.1 1490 1587 51.94% 21.67% 26.40%+0.20 +11.3 5
1960-11-06 @ Velez Mostar L 0-247.1 1587 1490 26.40% 21.67% 51.94%-0.20 -11.3 5
1960-11-13 Velez Mostar W 1-047.2 1684 1501 74.00% 19.33% 6.67%+1.92 +1.7 12
1960-11-13 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-147.2 1501 1684 6.67% 19.33% 74.00%-1.92 -1.7 5
1960-11-13 Vardar W 2-040.2 1718 1398 79.51% 17.17% 3.32%+2.76 +1.5 12
1960-11-13 @ Partizan L 0-240.2 1398 1718 3.32% 17.17% 79.51%-2.76 -1.5 1
1960-11-13 Hajduk Split L 1-264.4 1514 1648 47.39% 21.69% 30.91%-0.03 -9.1 4
1960-11-13 @ Radnicki Beograd W 2-164.4 1648 1514 30.91% 21.69% 47.39%+0.03 +9.1 9
1960-11-13 OFK Beograd D 1-168.7 1545 1587 57.96% 21.50% 20.54%+0.53 -1.8 11
1960-11-13 @ Rijeka D 1-168.7 1587 1545 20.54% 21.50% 57.96%-0.53 +1.8 10
1960-11-13 Red Star Belgrade D 0-067.8 1576 1703 48.24% 21.69% 30.07%+0.01 -0.9 6
1960-11-13 @ RNK Split D 0-067.8 1703 1576 30.07% 21.69% 48.24%-0.01 +0.9 11
1960-11-13 Vojvodina L 1-266.4 1553 1678 48.46% 21.69% 29.85%+0.02 -9.3 5
1960-11-13 @ Sarajevo W 2-166.4 1678 1553 29.85% 21.69% 48.46%-0.02 +9.3 10
1960-11-20 RNK Split D 1-171.4 1657 1575 68.27% 20.57% 11.16%+1.30 -2.8 10
1960-11-20 @ Hajduk Split D 1-171.4 1575 1657 11.16% 20.57% 68.27%-1.30 +2.8 7
1960-11-20 Sarajevo W 2-153.2 1589 1543 65.70% 20.91% 13.39%+1.08 +3.1 12
1960-11-20 @ OFK Beograd L 1-253.2 1543 1589 13.39% 20.91% 65.70%-1.08 -3.1 5
1960-11-20 Dinamo Zagreb D 2-278.5 1704 1686 63.50% 21.14% 15.36%+0.91 -1.7 12
1960-11-20 @ Red Star Belgrade D 2-278.5 1686 1704 15.36% 21.14% 63.50%-0.91 +1.7 13
1960-11-20 Radnicki Beograd W 3-254.5 1397 1505 50.68% 21.68% 27.64%+0.13 +5.6 3
1960-11-20 @ Vardar L 2-354.5 1505 1397 27.64% 21.68% 50.68%-0.13 -5.6 4
1960-11-20 Rijeka W 2-044.1 1499 1543 57.84% 21.50% 20.66%+0.53 +9.2 7
1960-11-20 @ Velez Mostar L 0-244.1 1543 1499 20.66% 21.50% 57.84%-0.53 -9.2 11
1960-11-20 Partizan L 0-166.7 1688 1720 58.99% 21.45% 19.56%+0.60 -11.8 10
1960-11-20 @ Vojvodina W 1-066.7 1720 1688 19.56% 21.45% 58.99%-0.60 +11.8 14
1960-11-27 Hajduk Split L 1-466.6 1688 1654 64.80% 21.01% 14.19%+1.00 -30.0 13
1960-11-27 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 4-166.6 1654 1688 14.19% 21.01% 64.80%-1.00 +30.0 12
1960-11-27 Velez Mostar W 2-043.0 1592 1509 68.38% 20.55% 11.07%+1.31 +5.2 14
1960-11-27 @ OFK Beograd L 0-243.0 1509 1592 11.07% 20.55% 68.38%-1.31 -5.2 7
1960-11-27 Vojvodina W 3-050.6 1499 1676 41.61% 21.63% 36.75%-0.29 +21.5 6
1960-11-27 @ Radnicki Beograd L 0-350.6 1676 1499 36.75% 21.63% 41.61%+0.29 -21.5 10
1960-11-27 Red Star Belgrade W 1-057.7 1534 1702 42.80% 21.65% 35.55%-0.24 +7.6 13
1960-11-27 @ Rijeka L 0-157.7 1702 1534 35.55% 21.65% 42.80%+0.24 -7.6 12
1960-11-27 Vardar D 1-164.0 1578 1402 73.60% 19.44% 6.96%+1.87 -3.3 8
1960-11-27 @ RNK Split D 1-164.0 1402 1578 6.96% 19.44% 73.60%-1.87 +3.4 4
1960-11-27 Partizan W 2-055.7 1540 1732 39.58% 21.59% 38.83%-0.38 +15.5 7
1960-11-27 @ Sarajevo L 0-255.7 1732 1540 38.83% 21.59% 39.58%+0.38 -15.5 14
1960-12-04 Rijeka W 3-258.6 1684 1541 71.91% 19.87% 8.22%+1.67 +1.9 14
1960-12-04 @ Hajduk Split L 2-358.6 1541 1684 8.22% 19.87% 71.91%-1.67 -1.9 13
1960-12-04 Radnicki Beograd W 3-258.0 1716 1520 74.59% 19.15% 6.26%+2.00 +1.4 16
1960-12-04 @ Partizan L 2-358.0 1520 1716 6.26% 19.15% 74.59%-2.00 -1.4 6
1960-12-04 OFK Beograd W 3-152.4 1695 1597 69.25% 20.41% 10.34%+1.39 +4.2 14
1960-12-04 @ Red Star Belgrade L 1-352.4 1597 1695 10.34% 20.41% 69.25%-1.39 -4.2 14
1960-12-04 Dinamo Zagreb L 0-151.6 1406 1658 31.36% 21.30% 47.34%-0.76 -6.9 4
1960-12-04 @ Vardar W 1-051.6 1658 1406 47.34% 21.30% 31.36%+0.76 +6.9 15
1960-12-04 Sarajevo D 2-271.5 1503 1556 56.94% 21.54% 21.52%+0.47 -1.2 8
1960-12-04 @ Velez Mostar D 2-271.5 1556 1503 21.52% 21.54% 56.94%-0.47 +1.2 8
1960-12-04 RNK Split L 0-360.9 1654 1574 68.15% 20.59% 11.26%+1.29 -37.5 10
1960-12-04 @ Vojvodina W 3-060.9 1574 1654 11.26% 20.59% 68.15%-1.29 +37.5 10
1961-03-12 OFK Beograd W 1-050.5 1686 1593 68.97% 20.46% 10.58%+1.37 +2.7 16
1961-03-12 @ Hajduk Split L 0-150.5 1593 1686 10.58% 20.46% 68.97%-1.37 -2.7 14
1961-03-12 RNK Split W 5-044.3 1718 1612 69.80% 20.31% 9.89%+1.45 +11.0 18
1961-03-12 @ Partizan L 0-544.3 1612 1718 9.89% 20.31% 69.80%-1.45 -11.0 10
1961-03-12 Velez Mostar W 2-043.9 1699 1502 74.63% 19.14% 6.23%+2.01 +3.0 16
1961-03-12 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-243.9 1502 1699 6.23% 19.14% 74.63%-2.01 -3.0 8
1961-03-12 Radnicki Beograd W 3-148.4 1557 1519 65.12% 20.98% 13.91%+1.03 +5.6 10
1961-03-12 @ Sarajevo L 1-348.4 1519 1557 13.91% 20.98% 65.12%-1.03 -5.6 6
1961-03-12 Rijeka L 0-248.1 1399 1540 46.50% 21.69% 31.81%-0.07 -17.9 4
1961-03-12 @ Vardar W 2-048.1 1540 1399 31.81% 21.69% 46.50%+0.07 +17.9 15
1961-03-12 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-171.9 1617 1665 57.43% 21.52% 21.05%+0.50 -1.7 11
1961-03-12 @ Vojvodina D 1-171.9 1665 1617 21.05% 21.52% 57.43%-0.50 +1.7 16
1961-03-19 Partizan L 0-165.7 1666 1729 55.90% 21.58% 22.53%+0.41 -11.2 16
1961-03-19 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 1-065.7 1729 1666 22.53% 21.58% 55.90%-0.41 +11.2 20
1961-03-19 Vardar D 2-269.1 1591 1381 75.21% 18.95% 5.84%+2.09 -2.6 15
1961-03-19 @ OFK Beograd D 2-269.1 1381 1591 5.84% 18.95% 75.21%-2.09 +2.6 5
1961-03-19 Sarajevo W 1-049.5 1702 1563 71.73% 19.91% 8.36%+1.65 +2.1 18
1961-03-19 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-149.5 1563 1702 8.36% 19.91% 71.73%-1.65 -2.1 10
1961-03-19 Vojvodina L 1-364.2 1558 1615 56.39% 21.56% 22.05%+0.44 -18.5 15
1961-03-19 @ Rijeka W 3-164.2 1615 1558 22.05% 21.56% 56.39%-0.44 +18.5 13
1961-03-19 Radnicki Beograd W 6-041.0 1601 1513 68.62% 20.51% 10.87%+1.33 +14.3 12
1961-03-19 @ RNK Split L 0-641.0 1513 1601 10.87% 20.51% 68.62%-1.33 -14.3 6
1961-03-19 Hajduk Split W 2-054.0 1499 1689 39.87% 21.60% 38.53%-0.37 +15.4 10
1961-03-19 @ Velez Mostar L 0-254.0 1689 1499 38.53% 21.60% 39.87%+0.37 -15.4 16
1961-03-26 Red Star Belgrade W 1-054.6 1673 1704 59.13% 21.44% 19.43%+0.61 +4.6 18
1961-03-26 @ Hajduk Split L 0-154.6 1704 1673 19.43% 21.44% 59.13%-0.61 -4.6 18
1961-03-26 Rijeka W 1-048.8 1740 1539 74.82% 19.08% 6.10%+2.03 +1.5 22
1961-03-26 @ Partizan L 0-148.8 1539 1740 6.10% 19.08% 74.82%-2.03 -1.5 15
1961-03-26 Dinamo Zagreb L 3-471.4 1499 1655 44.49% 21.67% 33.84%-0.16 -8.0 6
1961-03-26 @ Radnicki Beograd W 4-371.4 1655 1499 33.84% 21.67% 44.49%+0.16 +8.0 18
1961-03-26 RNK Split W 3-262.0 1561 1615 56.73% 21.55% 21.72%+0.46 +4.6 12
1961-03-26 @ Sarajevo L 2-362.0 1615 1561 21.72% 21.55% 56.73%-0.46 -4.6 12
1961-03-26 Velez Mostar W 3-147.2 1383 1514 47.78% 21.69% 30.53%-0.01 +11.1 7
1961-03-26 @ Vardar L 1-347.2 1514 1383 30.53% 21.69% 47.78%+0.01 -11.1 10
1961-03-26 OFK Beograd D 1-171.1 1634 1588 65.72% 20.91% 13.37%+1.08 -2.5 14
1961-03-26 @ Vojvodina D 1-171.1 1588 1634 13.37% 20.91% 65.72%-1.08 +2.5 16
1961-04-02 RNK Split W 3-153.0 1663 1610 66.23% 20.85% 12.92%+1.12 +5.2 20
1961-04-02 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-353.0 1610 1663 12.92% 20.85% 66.23%-1.12 -5.2 12
1961-04-02 Sarajevo W 1-049.6 1678 1565 70.21% 20.23% 9.56%+1.49 +2.4 20
1961-04-02 @ Hajduk Split L 0-149.6 1565 1678 9.56% 20.23% 70.21%-1.49 -2.4 12
1961-04-02 Partizan W 2-163.2 1590 1742 45.15% 21.68% 33.17%-0.13 +6.8 18
1961-04-02 @ OFK Beograd L 1-263.2 1742 1590 33.17% 21.68% 45.15%+0.13 -6.8 22
1961-04-02 Vardar L 0-165.7 1699 1395 78.98% 17.43% 3.59%+2.67 -15.6 18
1961-04-02 @ Red Star Belgrade W 1-065.7 1395 1699 3.59% 17.43% 78.98%-2.67 +15.6 9
1961-04-02 Radnicki Beograd W 6-348.1 1537 1491 65.75% 20.91% 13.34%+1.08 +6.1 17
1961-04-02 @ Rijeka L 3-648.1 1491 1537 13.34% 20.91% 65.75%-1.08 -6.1 6
1961-04-02 Vojvodina L 1-360.8 1503 1631 48.19% 21.69% 30.12%+0.01 -16.0 10
1961-04-02 @ Velez Mostar W 3-160.8 1631 1503 30.12% 21.69% 48.19%-0.01 +16.0 16
1961-04-09 Velez Mostar W 3-041.1 1735 1487 76.81% 18.37% 4.82%+2.32 +3.3 24
1961-04-09 @ Partizan L 0-341.1 1487 1735 4.82% 18.37% 76.81%-2.32 -3.3 10
1961-04-09 OFK Beograd W 2-047.9 1485 1597 50.14% 21.69% 28.18%+0.11 +12.0 8
1961-04-09 @ Radnicki Beograd L 0-247.9 1597 1485 28.18% 21.69% 50.14%-0.11 -12.0 18
1961-04-09 Rijeka L 1-269.7 1605 1544 66.87% 20.77% 12.36%+1.17 -12.7 12
1961-04-09 @ RNK Split W 2-169.7 1544 1605 12.36% 20.77% 66.87%-1.17 +12.7 19
1961-04-09 Dinamo Zagreb D 1-171.0 1563 1668 50.93% 21.68% 27.39%+0.15 -1.1 13
1961-04-09 @ Sarajevo D 1-171.0 1668 1563 27.39% 21.68% 50.93%-0.15 +1.1 21
1961-04-09 Hajduk Split W 1-057.9 1410 1680 29.13% 21.18% 49.68%-0.87 +10.0 11
1961-04-09 @ Vardar L 0-157.9 1680 1410 49.68% 21.18% 29.13%+0.87 -10.0 20
1961-04-09 Red Star Belgrade D 0-068.6 1647 1684 58.57% 21.47% 19.96%+0.57 -2.0 17
1961-04-09 @ Vojvodina D 0-068.6 1684 1647 19.96% 21.47% 58.57%-0.57 +2.0 19
1961-04-16 Vojvodina W 2-049.0 1670 1645 64.09% 21.08% 14.83%+0.95 +6.9 22
1961-04-16 @ Hajduk Split L 0-249.0 1645 1670 14.83% 21.08% 64.09%-0.95 -6.9 17
1961-04-16 RNK Split W 3-152.6 1585 1593 61.34% 21.31% 17.35%+0.75 +6.9 20
1961-04-16 @ OFK Beograd L 1-352.6 1593 1585 17.35% 21.31% 61.34%-0.75 -6.9 12
1961-04-16 Partizan W 3-265.4 1686 1738 56.96% 21.54% 21.50%+0.47 +4.5 21
1961-04-16 @ Red Star Belgrade L 2-365.4 1738 1686 21.50% 21.54% 56.96%-0.47 -4.5 24
1961-04-16 Dinamo Zagreb D 0-066.9 1556 1669 50.02% 21.69% 28.29%+0.10 -1.1 20
1961-04-16 @ Rijeka D 0-066.9 1669 1556 28.29% 21.69% 50.02%-0.10 +1.1 22
1961-04-16 Sarajevo D 0-059.4 1420 1562 46.43% 21.69% 31.89%-0.07 -0.7 12
1961-04-16 @ Vardar D 0-059.4 1562 1420 31.89% 21.69% 46.43%+0.07 +0.7 14
1961-04-16 Radnicki Beograd W 1-044.5 1484 1497 60.82% 21.34% 17.84%+0.72 +4.3 12
1961-04-16 @ Velez Mostar L 0-144.5 1497 1484 17.84% 21.34% 60.82%-0.72 -4.3 8
1961-04-23 OFK Beograd W 2-047.0 1671 1592 68.03% 20.60% 11.37%+1.28 +5.4 24
1961-04-23 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 0-247.0 1592 1671 11.37% 20.60% 68.03%-1.28 -5.4 20
1961-04-23 Hajduk Split W 4-045.6 1733 1677 66.50% 20.82% 12.69%+1.14 +11.3 26
1961-04-23 @ Partizan L 0-445.6 1677 1733 12.69% 20.82% 66.50%-1.14 -11.3 22
1961-04-23 Red Star Belgrade L 1-359.2 1493 1690 38.72% 21.57% 39.71%-0.42 -13.3 8
1961-04-23 @ Radnicki Beograd W 3-159.2 1690 1493 39.71% 21.57% 38.72%+0.42 +13.3 23
1961-04-23 Velez Mostar D 1-167.1 1586 1488 69.26% 20.41% 10.33%+1.39 -2.9 13
1961-04-23 @ RNK Split D 1-167.1 1488 1586 10.33% 20.41% 69.26%-1.39 +2.9 13
1961-04-23 Rijeka W 3-150.5 1562 1555 62.60% 21.21% 16.18%+0.84 +6.4 16
1961-04-23 @ Sarajevo L 1-350.5 1555 1562 16.18% 21.21% 62.60%-0.84 -6.5 20
1961-04-23 Vardar W 2-147.8 1638 1419 75.62% 18.81% 5.57%+2.14 +1.3 19
1961-04-23 @ Vojvodina L 1-247.8 1419 1638 5.57% 18.81% 75.62%-2.14 -1.3 12
1961-04-30 Radnicki Beograd W 3-040.1 1666 1479 74.14% 19.28% 6.57%+1.94 +4.5 24
1961-04-30 @ Hajduk Split L 0-340.1 1479 1666 6.57% 19.28% 74.14%-1.94 -4.5 8
1961-04-30 Rijeka W 4-254.4 1587 1549 65.12% 20.98% 13.90%+1.03 +5.0 22
1961-04-30 @ OFK Beograd L 2-454.4 1549 1587 13.90% 20.98% 65.12%-1.03 -5.0 20
1961-04-30 RNK Split W 4-043.2 1704 1583 70.69% 20.14% 9.18%+1.54 +8.3 25
1961-04-30 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-443.2 1583 1704 9.18% 20.14% 70.69%-1.54 -8.3 13
1961-04-30 Partizan W 3-163.8 1418 1745 22.82% 20.71% 56.48%-1.21 +18.4 14
1961-04-30 @ Vardar L 1-363.8 1745 1418 56.48% 20.71% 22.82%+1.21 -18.4 26
1961-04-30 Dinamo Zagreb D 0-065.6 1491 1676 40.54% 21.61% 37.84%-0.34 -0.1 14
1961-04-30 @ Velez Mostar D 0-065.6 1676 1491 37.84% 21.61% 40.54%+0.34 +0.1 25
1961-04-30 Sarajevo W 3-151.4 1640 1569 67.52% 20.68% 11.80%+1.23 +4.8 21
1961-04-30 @ Vojvodina L 1-351.4 1569 1640 11.80% 20.68% 67.52%-1.23 -4.8 16
1961-05-14 Red Star Belgrade L 1-271.3 1676 1712 58.64% 21.47% 19.90%+0.58 -11.1 25
1961-05-14 @ Dinamo Zagreb W 2-171.3 1712 1676 19.90% 21.47% 58.64%-0.58 +11.1 27
1961-05-14 Vojvodina W 4-044.8 1726 1644 68.27% 20.57% 11.17%+1.30 +10.0 28
1961-05-14 @ Partizan L 0-444.8 1644 1726 11.17% 20.57% 68.27%-1.30 -10.0 21
1961-05-14 Vardar L 2-365.9 1475 1437 65.14% 20.98% 13.88%+1.03 -11.7 8
1961-05-14 @ Radnicki Beograd W 3-265.9 1437 1475 13.88% 20.98% 65.14%-1.03 +11.7 16
1961-05-14 Velez Mostar W 2-149.7 1544 1491 66.22% 20.85% 12.93%+1.12 +3.0 22
1961-05-14 @ Rijeka L 1-249.7 1491 1544 12.93% 20.85% 66.22%-1.12 -3.0 14
1961-05-14 Hajduk Split L 0-259.3 1574 1670 52.12% 21.66% 26.22%+0.21 -19.9 13
1961-05-14 @ RNK Split W 2-059.3 1670 1574 26.22% 21.66% 52.12%-0.21 +19.9 26
1961-05-14 OFK Beograd D 0-065.4 1564 1592 59.41% 21.43% 19.16%+0.62 -2.1 17
1961-05-14 @ Sarajevo D 0-065.4 1592 1564 19.16% 21.43% 59.41%-0.62 +2.1 23
1961-05-21 Dinamo Zagreb W 4-151.8 1690 1665 64.11% 21.08% 14.81%+0.95 +8.4 28
1961-05-21 @ Hajduk Split L 1-451.8 1665 1690 14.81% 21.08% 64.11%-0.95 -8.4 25
1961-05-21 Sarajevo W 5-251.4 1736 1562 73.57% 19.45% 6.98%+1.87 +3.5 30
1961-05-21 @ Partizan L 2-551.4 1562 1736 6.98% 19.45% 73.57%-1.87 -3.5 17
1961-05-21 Rijeka W 2-045.5 1723 1547 73.65% 19.43% 6.92%+1.88 +3.3 29
1961-05-21 @ Red Star Belgrade L 0-245.5 1547 1723 6.92% 19.43% 73.65%-1.88 -3.3 22
1961-05-21 RNK Split D 0-060.2 1448 1555 50.85% 21.68% 27.47%+0.14 -1.2 17
1961-05-21 @ Vardar D 0-060.2 1555 1448 27.47% 21.68% 50.85%-0.14 +1.2 14
1961-05-21 OFK Beograd W 5-253.1 1488 1594 50.92% 21.68% 27.40%+0.14 +12.4 16
1961-05-21 @ Velez Mostar L 2-553.1 1594 1488 27.40% 21.68% 50.92%-0.14 -12.4 23
1961-05-21 Radnicki Beograd W 2-149.8 1634 1463 73.41% 19.49% 7.10%+1.85 +1.7 23
1961-05-21 @ Vojvodina L 1-249.8 1463 1634 7.10% 19.49% 73.41%-1.85 -1.7 8
1961-06-11 Vardar W 6-141.0 1657 1447 75.21% 18.95% 5.84%+2.08 +5.4 27
1961-06-11 @ Dinamo Zagreb L 1-641.0 1447 1657 5.84% 18.95% 75.21%-2.08 -5.4 17
1961-06-11 Red Star Belgrade L 1-266.8 1582 1726 45.99% 21.69% 32.32%-0.09 -8.9 23
1961-06-11 @ OFK Beograd W 2-166.8 1726 1582 32.32% 21.69% 45.99%+0.09 +8.9 31
1961-06-11 Radnicki Beograd W 3-256.2 1740 1461 78.02% 17.87% 4.11%+2.51 +0.9 32
1961-06-11 @ Partizan L 2-356.2 1461 1740 4.11% 17.87% 78.02%-2.51 -0.9 8
1961-06-11 Hajduk Split L 1-265.4 1543 1699 44.61% 21.68% 33.72%-0.16 -8.7 22
1961-06-11 @ Rijeka W 2-165.4 1699 1543 33.72% 21.68% 44.61%+0.16 +8.7 30
1961-06-11 Vojvodina W 2-049.9 1556 1636 53.91% 21.63% 24.46%+0.30 +10.7 16
1961-06-11 @ RNK Split L 0-249.9 1636 1556 24.46% 21.63% 53.91%-0.30 -10.7 23
1961-06-11 Velez Mostar D 2-271.8 1558 1501 66.59% 20.80% 12.60%+1.15 -2.0 18
1961-06-11 @ Sarajevo D 2-271.8 1501 1558 12.60% 20.80% 66.59%-1.15 +2.0 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1961-04-02 3.59% Vardar 1395 1 @ Red Star Belgrade 1699 0
2 1960-12-04 11.26% RNK Split 1574 3 @ Vojvodina 1654 0
3 1961-04-09 12.36% Rijeka 1544 2 @ RNK Split 1605 1
4 1960-10-30 13.16% Hajduk Split 1636 1 @ Vojvodina 1685 0
5 1961-05-14 13.88% Vardar 1437 3 @ Radnicki Beograd 1475 2
6 1960-11-27 14.19% Hajduk Split 1654 4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1688 1
7 1960-10-16 15.57% Rijeka 1515 2 @ Radnicki Beograd 1530 1
8 1960-09-18 16.05% Vojvodina 1665 4 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1674 2
9 1960-11-20 19.56% Partizan 1720 1 @ Vojvodina 1688 0
10 1961-05-14 19.90% Red Star Belgrade 1712 2 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1676 1
11 1960-09-25 20.06% RNK Split 1589 4 @ Radnicki Beograd 1552 2
12 1960-10-16 21.38% Dinamo Zagreb 1662 1 @ RNK Split 1611 0
13 1961-03-19 22.05% Vojvodina 1615 3 @ Rijeka 1558 1
14 1961-03-19 22.53% Partizan 1729 1 @ Dinamo Zagreb 1666 0
15 1961-04-30 22.82% @ Vardar 1418 3 Partizan 1745 1
16 1960-09-18 23.48% Partizan 1677 4 @ RNK Split 1606 2
17 1961-05-14 26.22% Hajduk Split 1670 2 @ RNK Split 1574 0
18 1961-04-09 29.13% @ Vardar 1410 1 Hajduk Split 1680 0
19 1960-11-13 29.85% Vojvodina 1678 2 @ Sarajevo 1553 1
20 1960-09-25 30.10% OFK Beograd 1563 3 @ Vardar 1435 1
21 1961-04-02 30.12% Vojvodina 1631 3 @ Velez Mostar 1503 1
22 1960-11-13 30.91% Hajduk Split 1648 2 @ Radnicki Beograd 1514 1
23 1961-03-12 31.81% Rijeka 1540 2 @ Vardar 1399 0
24 1961-06-11 32.32% Red Star Belgrade 1726 2 @ OFK Beograd 1582 1
25 1961-06-11 33.72% Hajduk Split 1699 2 @ Rijeka 1543 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-12-04 37.49 RNK Split 3 1574 11.26% @ Vojvodina 0 1654 68.15% 20.59%
2 1960-11-27 30.04 Hajduk Split 4 1654 14.19% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1688 64.80% 21.01%
3 1960-11-27 21.50 @ Radnicki Beograd 3 1499 41.61% Vojvodina 0 1676 36.75% 21.63%
4 1961-05-14 19.86 Hajduk Split 2 1670 26.22% @ RNK Split 0 1574 52.12% 21.66%
5 1961-03-19 18.52 Vojvodina 3 1615 22.05% @ Rijeka 1 1558 56.39% 21.56%
6 1960-09-18 18.40 Vojvodina 4 1665 16.05% @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1674 62.75% 21.20%
7 1961-04-30 18.39 @ Vardar 3 1418 22.82% Partizan 1 1745 56.48% 20.71%
8 1961-03-12 17.94 Rijeka 2 1540 31.81% @ Vardar 0 1399 46.50% 21.69%
9 1960-10-23 17.43 Partizan 5 1688 36.43% @ Velez Mostar 2 1513 41.93% 21.64%
10 1960-09-25 17.15 RNK Split 4 1589 20.06% @ Radnicki Beograd 2 1552 58.46% 21.47%
11 1960-10-16 16.55 @ Sarajevo 3 1548 51.78% Hajduk Split 0 1646 26.55% 21.67%
12 1960-09-18 16.15 Partizan 4 1677 23.48% @ RNK Split 2 1606 54.91% 21.61%
13 1960-09-25 16.02 OFK Beograd 3 1563 30.10% @ Vardar 1 1435 48.21% 21.69%
14 1961-04-02 16.02 Vojvodina 3 1631 30.12% @ Velez Mostar 1 1503 48.19% 21.69%
15 1961-04-02 15.63 Vardar 1 1395 3.59% @ Red Star Belgrade 0 1699 78.98% 17.43%
16 1960-11-27 15.45 @ Sarajevo 2 1540 39.58% Partizan 0 1732 38.83% 21.59%
17 1961-03-19 15.36 @ Velez Mostar 2 1499 39.87% Hajduk Split 0 1689 38.53% 21.60%
18 1961-03-19 14.29 @ RNK Split 6 1601 68.62% Radnicki Beograd 0 1513 10.87% 20.51%
19 1961-04-23 13.34 Red Star Belgrade 3 1690 39.71% @ Radnicki Beograd 1 1493 38.72% 21.57%
20 1960-10-30 13.25 Hajduk Split 1 1636 13.16% @ Vojvodina 0 1685 65.96% 20.88%
21 1960-11-06 12.86 @ Rijeka 3 1532 58.84% Sarajevo 0 1566 19.70% 21.46%
22 1961-04-09 12.66 Rijeka 2 1544 12.36% @ RNK Split 1 1605 66.87% 20.77%
23 1961-05-21 12.41 @ Velez Mostar 5 1488 50.92% OFK Beograd 2 1594 27.40% 21.68%
24 1960-10-16 11.97 Rijeka 2 1515 15.57% @ Radnicki Beograd 1 1530 63.27% 21.16%
25 1961-04-09 11.97 @ Radnicki Beograd 2 1485 50.14% OFK Beograd 0 1597 28.18% 21.69%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-11-20 78.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1704 63.50% Dinamo Zagreb 2 1686 15.36% 21.14%
2 1960-09-18 76.0 @ Velez Mostar 2 1521 42.33% Red Star Belgrade 2 1693 36.03% 21.65%
3 1960-09-25 75.5 @ Hajduk Split 2 1652 71.26% Velez Mostar 2 1521 8.72% 20.02%
4 1960-09-18 73.0 Vojvodina 4 1665 16.05% @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1674 62.75% 21.20%
5 1960-09-25 72.9 @ Partizan 1 1693 65.11% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1655 13.91% 20.98%
6 1961-03-12 71.9 @ Vojvodina 1 1617 57.43% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1665 21.05% 21.52%
7 1960-11-06 71.8 @ OFK Beograd 1 1589 52.24% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1683 26.09% 21.66%
8 1961-06-11 71.8 @ Sarajevo 2 1558 66.59% Velez Mostar 2 1501 12.60% 20.80%
9 1960-12-04 71.5 @ Velez Mostar 2 1503 56.94% Sarajevo 2 1556 21.52% 21.54%
10 1960-11-20 71.4 @ Hajduk Split 1 1657 68.27% RNK Split 1 1575 11.16% 20.57%
11 1961-03-26 71.4 Dinamo Zagreb 4 1655 33.84% @ Radnicki Beograd 3 1499 44.49% 21.67%
12 1960-09-25 71.3 @ Sarajevo 1 1553 46.55% Red Star Belgrade 1 1693 31.76% 21.69%
13 1961-05-14 71.3 Red Star Belgrade 2 1712 19.90% @ Dinamo Zagreb 1 1676 58.64% 21.47%
14 1961-03-26 71.1 @ Vojvodina 1 1634 65.72% OFK Beograd 1 1588 13.37% 20.91%
15 1961-04-09 71.0 @ Sarajevo 1 1563 50.93% Dinamo Zagreb 1 1668 27.39% 21.68%
16 1960-09-18 70.7 @ OFK Beograd 1 1564 53.25% Hajduk Split 1 1650 25.11% 21.64%
17 1960-09-18 70.1 Partizan 4 1677 23.48% @ RNK Split 2 1606 54.91% 21.61%
18 1960-10-30 70.0 @ RNK Split 1 1589 62.23% OFK Beograd 1 1586 16.52% 21.24%
19 1961-04-09 69.7 Rijeka 2 1544 12.36% @ RNK Split 1 1605 66.87% 20.77%
20 1961-03-19 69.1 @ OFK Beograd 2 1591 75.21% Vardar 2 1381 5.84% 18.95%
21 1960-11-06 68.9 @ Hajduk Split 0 1649 55.35% Partizan 0 1717 23.06% 21.59%
22 1960-11-13 68.7 @ Rijeka 1 1545 57.96% OFK Beograd 1 1587 20.54% 21.50%
23 1961-04-09 68.6 @ Vojvodina 0 1647 58.57% Red Star Belgrade 0 1684 19.96% 21.47%
24 1960-09-25 68.1 RNK Split 4 1589 20.06% @ Radnicki Beograd 2 1552 58.46% 21.47%
25 1960-10-30 67.8 Hajduk Split 1 1636 13.16% @ Vojvodina 0 1685 65.96% 20.88%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1960-10-30 34.6 @ Sarajevo 3 1560 72.30% Vardar 0 1410 7.92% 19.78%
2 1960-10-23 35.9 @ Hajduk Split 5 1630 75.36% Vardar 0 1417 5.74% 18.90%
3 1961-04-30 40.1 @ Hajduk Split 3 1666 74.14% Radnicki Beograd 0 1479 6.57% 19.28%
4 1960-11-13 40.2 @ Partizan 2 1718 79.51% Vardar 0 1398 3.32% 17.17%
5 1960-10-16 41.0 @ Vojvodina 4 1685 73.09% Velez Mostar 0 1520 7.33% 19.58%
6 1961-03-19 41.0 @ RNK Split 6 1601 68.62% Radnicki Beograd 0 1513 10.87% 20.51%
7 1961-06-11 41.0 @ Dinamo Zagreb 6 1657 75.21% Vardar 1 1447 5.84% 18.95%
8 1960-09-25 41.1 @ Vojvodina 5 1683 73.20% Rijeka 0 1516 7.25% 19.55%
9 1961-04-09 41.1 @ Partizan 3 1735 76.81% Velez Mostar 0 1487 4.82% 18.37%
10 1960-09-18 41.3 @ Rijeka 1 1513 67.79% Vardar 0 1438 11.57% 20.64%
11 1960-10-30 42.5 @ Dinamo Zagreb 3 1677 71.76% Rijeka 0 1538 8.33% 19.91%
12 1960-11-27 43.0 @ OFK Beograd 2 1592 68.38% Velez Mostar 0 1509 11.07% 20.55%
13 1960-11-06 43.2 @ Rijeka 3 1532 58.84% Sarajevo 0 1566 19.70% 21.46%
14 1961-04-30 43.2 @ Red Star Belgrade 4 1704 70.69% RNK Split 0 1583 9.18% 20.14%
15 1960-10-23 43.4 @ OFK Beograd 2 1581 66.90% Radnicki Beograd 0 1518 12.33% 20.76%
16 1961-03-12 43.9 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1699 74.63% Velez Mostar 0 1502 6.23% 19.14%
17 1960-11-20 44.1 @ Velez Mostar 2 1499 57.84% Rijeka 0 1543 20.66% 21.50%
18 1961-03-12 44.3 @ Partizan 5 1718 69.80% RNK Split 0 1612 9.89% 20.31%
19 1961-04-16 44.5 @ Velez Mostar 1 1484 60.82% Radnicki Beograd 0 1497 17.84% 21.34%
20 1960-10-02 44.8 @ Dinamo Zagreb 2 1658 70.81% Radnicki Beograd 0 1535 9.08% 20.11%
21 1961-05-14 44.8 @ Partizan 4 1726 68.27% Vojvodina 0 1644 11.17% 20.57%
22 1960-11-06 45.2 @ Red Star Belgrade 5 1698 73.79% Radnicki Beograd 1 1519 6.82% 19.39%
23 1961-05-21 45.5 @ Red Star Belgrade 2 1723 73.65% Rijeka 0 1547 6.92% 19.43%
24 1961-04-23 45.6 @ Partizan 4 1733 66.50% Hajduk Split 0 1677 12.69% 20.82%
25 1960-10-30 46.5 @ Radnicki Beograd 3 1513 63.42% Velez Mostar 1 1496 15.44% 21.14%