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1958 A Group Season

66 games

Final

Champion

CSKA Sofia

18 points · 8th Title

Last Title: 1957

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Spartak Pleven

3.28 points above expected

14 points · 10.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cherno More

4.37 points below expected

6 points · 10.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 CSKA Sofia Champion 11 7 4 0 18 19 9 +10 14.75 +3.25
2 Levski Sofia 11 6 2 3 14 18 9 +9 13.05 +0.95
3 Spartak Pleven 11 5 4 2 14 12 9 +3 10.72 +3.28
4 Lokomotiv Sofia 11 4 4 3 12 17 17 0 12.33 -0.33
5 Slavia Sofia 11 5 1 5 11 23 17 +6 11.22 -0.22
6 Spartak Plovdiv 11 3 5 3 11 18 16 +2 10.44 +0.56
7 Minyor Pernik 11 5 1 5 11 20 19 +1 10.71 +0.29
8 Spartak Varna 11 4 2 5 10 19 18 +1 11.67 -1.67
9 Botev Plovdiv 11 3 3 5 9 14 18 -4 10.46 -1.46
10 Beroe 11 3 2 6 8 13 19 -6 7.67 +0.33
11 Dunav Ruse 11 2 4 5 8 11 19 -8 8.61 -0.61
12 Cherno More 11 3 0 8 6 8 22 -14 10.37 -4.37

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Spartak Pleven 14 10.72 +3.28
2 CSKA Sofia 18 14.75 +3.25
3 Levski Sofia 14 13.05 +0.95
4 Spartak Plovdiv 11 10.44 +0.56
5 Beroe 8 7.67 +0.33

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cherno More 6 10.37 -4.37
2 Spartak Varna 10 11.67 -1.67
3 Botev Plovdiv 9 10.46 -1.46
4 Dunav Ruse 8 8.61 -0.61
5 Lokomotiv Sofia 12 12.33 -0.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Levski Sofia 5 Mar 9 – Apr 13 1 in 103
2 Spartak Varna 2 Mar 16 – Mar 23 1 in 11
3 CSKA Sofia 4 Apr 16 – May 31 1 in 9
4 Slavia Sofia 3 Apr 12 – Apr 27 1 in 8
5 Spartak Pleven 2 Mar 9 – Mar 15 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Slavia Sofia 4 Mar 8 – Apr 5 1 in 66
2 Levski Sofia 2 Apr 20 – Apr 26 1 in 26
3 Cherno More 3 Mar 9 – Mar 23 1 in 17
4 Spartak Varna 2 Jun 7 – Jun 22 1 in 14
5 Minyor Pernik 2 Jun 11 – Jun 22 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 CSKA Sofia 11 Mar 9 – Jul 6 1 in 19
2 Spartak Pleven 6 Apr 20 – Jun 22 1 in 18
3 Spartak Plovdiv 4 Apr 20 – Jun 22 1 in 12
4 Lokomotiv Sofia 6 Mar 9 – Apr 20 1 in 11
5 Levski Sofia 5 Mar 9 – Apr 13 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Spartak Varna 4 Jun 7 – Jul 8 1 in 9
2 Spartak Plovdiv 5 Mar 9 – Apr 12 1 in 8
3 Dunav Ruse 7 Mar 19 – Jun 15 1 in 8
4 Botev Plovdiv 4 Apr 6 – Apr 27 1 in 7
5 Slavia Sofia 4 Mar 8 – Apr 5 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
CSKA Sofia 1710 18 +11 8 5.9 +2.1
Spartak Pleven 1570 14 +4 7 5.9 +1.1
Levski Sofia 1657 14 -21 4 6.8 -2.8
Lokomotiv Sofia 1606 12 -11 4 5.4 -1.4
Slavia Sofia 1559 11 +18 7 5.4 +1.6
Spartak Plovdiv 1530 11 +11 6 4.2 +1.8
Minyor Pernik 1566 11 -6 5 5.9 -0.9
Spartak Varna 1537 10 -8 3 5.3 -2.3
Botev Plovdiv 1484 9 +0 5 4.3 +0.7
Beroe 1404 8 +13 4 2.9 +1.1
Dunav Ruse 1409 8 -2 3 3.3 -0.3
Cherno More 1503 6 -8 4 4.6 -0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BER BP CS CM DR LS LS MP SS SP SP SV
Beroe —
1-0-0
1.69
0-0-1
0.91
0-0-1
0.54
0-0-1
0.70
1-0-0
1.00
0-1-0
1.20
1-0-0
1.33
0-0-1
0.46
0-0-1
0.43
0-1-0
1.59
0-0-1
0.46
Botev Plovdiv
0-0-1
1.05
 —
0-0-1
1.23
1-0-0
1.87
0-1-0
2.19
0-0-1
0.43
1-0-0
1.58
0-0-1
0.60
0-1-0
1.83
0-0-1
1.80
0-1-0
0.67
1-0-0
0.58
CSKA Sofia
1-0-0
1.85
1-0-0
1.52
 —
1-0-0
2.32
1-0-0
2.52
0-1-0
0.89
0-1-0
2.20
1-0-0
1.20
1-0-0
2.34
0-1-0
2.31
0-1-0
1.34
1-0-0
2.33
Cherno More
1-0-0
2.23
0-0-1
0.88
0-0-1
0.47
 —
0-0-1
1.06
1-0-0
0.43
0-0-1
0.54
0-0-1
0.63
1-0-0
1.91
0-0-1
1.89
0-0-1
2.01
0-0-1
2.04
Dunav Ruse
1-0-0
2.06
0-1-0
0.58
0-0-1
0.31
1-0-0
1.69
 —
0-0-1
0.33
0-1-0
1.30
0-0-1
0.44
0-0-1
1.63
0-1-0
1.48
0-0-1
0.52
0-1-0
1.58
Levski Sofia
0-0-1
1.76
1-0-0
2.36
0-1-0
1.86
0-0-1
2.36
1-0-0
2.49
 —
0-0-1
0.94
1-0-0
2.19
1-0-0
1.08
1-0-0
1.09
0-1-0
1.21
1-0-0
1.08
Lokomotiv Sofia
0-1-0
1.55
0-0-1
1.16
0-1-0
0.57
1-0-0
2.23
0-1-0
1.45
1-0-0
1.80
 —
1-0-0
2.10
0-0-1
0.93
0-1-0
2.13
1-0-0
2.20
0-0-1
0.96
Minyor Pernik
0-0-1
1.41
1-0-0
2.17
0-0-1
1.54
1-0-0
2.13
1-0-0
2.35
0-0-1
0.58
0-0-1
0.66
 —
1-0-0
0.76
1-0-0
2.03
0-0-1
0.91
0-1-0
0.78
Slavia Sofia
1-0-0
2.33
0-1-0
0.91
0-0-1
0.45
0-0-1
0.84
1-0-0
1.12
0-0-1
1.67
1-0-0
1.82
0-0-1
1.99
 —
0-0-1
0.73
1-0-0
2.04
1-0-0
2.04
Spartak Pleven
1-0-0
2.36
1-0-0
0.94
0-1-0
0.47
1-0-0
0.86
0-1-0
1.27
0-0-1
1.66
0-1-0
0.63
0-0-1
0.73
1-0-0
2.03
 —
0-1-0
2.12
1-0-0
2.06
Spartak Plovdiv
0-1-0
1.15
0-1-0
2.09
0-1-0
1.41
1-0-0
0.75
1-0-0
2.25
0-1-0
1.53
0-0-1
0.57
1-0-0
1.83
0-0-1
0.71
0-1-0
0.64
 —
0-0-1
0.70
Spartak Varna
1-0-0
2.33
0-0-1
2.19
0-0-1
0.46
1-0-0
0.71
0-1-0
1.16
0-0-1
1.66
1-0-0
1.79
0-1-0
1.97
0-0-1
0.71
0-0-1
0.69
1-0-0
2.06
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.27 +3.9
Allowed 0.81 -6.5
Differential 0.80 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%12.88%3.79%3.03%1.52%0.76%26.52%
112.88%9.09%7.58%1.52%0.76%0.76%32.58%
23.79%7.58%9.09%1.52%0.76%1.52%24.24%
33.03%1.52%1.52%—1.52%—7.58%
41.52%0.76%0.76%1.52%1.52%—6.06%
5+0.76%0.76%1.52%———3.03%
Total26.52%32.58%24.24%7.58%6.06%3.03%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.45 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.36 1.86
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 66

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%———9.09%27.27%
1—9.09%27.27%———36.36%
218.18%——9.09%——27.27%
3——9.09%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%18.18%36.36%9.09%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.73 -0.55
SD 0.98 1.74 2.16
CV 0.83 1.01 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%9.09%—9.09%—45.45%
19.09%—————9.09%
2—9.09%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
39.09%—————9.09%
4————9.09%—9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%27.27%18.18%9.09%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.27 1.64 -0.36
SD 1.42 1.50 1.80
CV 1.12 0.92 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
136.36%9.09%————45.45%
2—18.18%27.27%———45.45%
3———————
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%27.27%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 0.82 +0.91
SD 0.90 0.87 1.14
CV 0.52 1.07 —
Max 4 2 +4
Min 1 0 +0

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%18.18%9.09%9.09%—45.45%
118.18%—9.09%9.09%——36.36%
2—9.09%——9.09%—18.18%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%18.18%27.27%18.18%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.73 2.00 -1.27
SD 0.79 1.41 1.68
CV 1.08 0.71 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%27.27%————36.36%
1—18.18%——9.09%9.09%36.36%
29.09%—9.09%———18.18%
3——9.09%———9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%45.45%18.18%—9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.73 -0.73
SD 1.00 1.79 1.90
CV 1.00 1.04 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%9.09%———27.27%
118.18%—————18.18%
29.09%—18.18%———27.27%
318.18%—————18.18%
4—9.09%————9.09%
5+———————
Total45.45%27.27%27.27%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 0.82 +0.82
SD 1.36 0.87 1.78
CV 0.83 1.07 —
Max 4 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
19.09%36.36%—9.09%——54.55%
29.09%————9.09%18.18%
39.09%—————9.09%
4———9.09%——9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%45.45%—18.18%—9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.55 +0.00
SD 1.13 1.81 1.90
CV 0.73 1.17 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%9.09%9.09%——27.27%
19.09%9.09%————18.18%
2—18.18%————18.18%
3————18.18%—18.18%
49.09%—9.09%———18.18%
5+———————
Total18.18%36.36%18.18%9.09%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.73 +0.09
SD 1.54 1.42 1.97
CV 0.85 0.82 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%—9.09%——27.27%
19.09%—18.18%———27.27%
2—9.09%————9.09%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4————9.09%—9.09%
5+9.09%—9.09%———18.18%
Total18.18%36.36%27.27%9.09%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.55 +0.55
SD 2.12 1.21 2.46
CV 1.01 0.79 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%————18.18%
127.27%18.18%9.09%———54.55%
2—18.18%9.09%———27.27%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total36.36%45.45%18.18%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.09 0.82 +0.27
SD 0.70 0.75 0.79
CV 0.64 0.92 —
Max 2 2 +1
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%9.09%—9.09%——36.36%
19.09%—9.09%———18.18%
2——27.27%———27.27%
3———————
4———9.09%——9.09%
5+—9.09%————9.09%
Total27.27%18.18%36.36%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.45 +0.18
SD 1.91 1.13 1.94
CV 1.17 0.78 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%————18.18%
19.09%9.09%18.18%———36.36%
2—9.09%9.09%——9.09%27.27%
3—9.09%————9.09%
4———————
5+——9.09%———9.09%
Total9.09%45.45%36.36%——9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 1.64 +0.09
SD 1.68 1.29 1.87
CV 0.97 0.79 —
Max 6 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 11

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
CSKA Sofia 1710 18 14.75 +3.25 94.0% 9 11 13 15 16 19 21
Levski Sofia 1657 14 13.05 +0.95 69.0% 6 9 11 13 15 17 18
Lokomotiv Sofia 1606 12 12.33 -0.33 56.0% 6 8 10 12 14 17 19
Spartak Pleven 1570 14 10.72 +3.28 92.0% 5 7 9 11 12 15 18
Minyor Pernik 1566 11 10.71 +0.29 60.0% 5 6 9 11 12 14 17
Slavia Sofia 1559 11 11.22 -0.22 55.0% 4 6 10 11 13 15 18
Spartak Varna 1537 10 11.67 -1.67 29.0% 6 7 10 12 13 15 16
Spartak Plovdiv 1530 11 10.44 +0.56 67.0% 5 6 9 10 12 15 17
Cherno More 1503 6 10.37 -4.37 7.0% 5 6 9 10 12 15 16
Botev Plovdiv 1484 9 10.46 -1.46 32.0% 6 6 9 10 12 14 16
Dunav Ruse 1409 8 8.61 -0.61 45.0% 2 4 7 9 11 12 15
Beroe 1404 8 7.67 +0.33 64.0% 2 4 6 7 9 12 14

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 11.5% * Slight Edge: 11.5% to 19% * Clear Edge: 19% to 28.5% * Strong Edge: 28.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+33.33%
Strong Edge
54.55%24.24%21.21%
Elo Value
Home Edge
172 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0120.41500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.82 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.70+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.24 * Runaway: 0.24 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
48%
CSKA Sofia, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.36/gm
Runaway
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.99 * Some Luck: 1.99 to 2.99 * Lucky: 2.99 to 3.98 * Wild Swing: 3.98 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.01 * Close: 2.01 to 3.01 * Off: 3.01 to 4.02 * Way Off: 4.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
1.98 points
As Expected
02.496
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.33
Pinpoint
02.516
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
94.00%
CSKA Sofia
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.00%
Cherno More
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.17 * Top-Heavy: 0.17 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.5 * Moderate Separation: 1.5 to 1.8 * Strong Separation: 1.8 to 2.15 * Wide Separation: 2.15 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 63.5% * Slight Edge: 63.5% to 68% * Clear Edge: 68% to 74.5% * Wide Edge: 74.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85% * Clear Edge: 85% to 91% * Strong Edge: 91% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 54.5% * Some Drama: 54.5% to 60% * Frequent: 60% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 18.5% * Frequent: 18.5% to 23.5% * Very Frequent: 23.5% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.130.20.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 90.02
1.12
Coin-Flip Parity
0.751.51.82.153
Interquartile Edge
61%
Even
50%63.5%74.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
85%
Clear Edge
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
71%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.34 * Slight Separation: 0.34 to 0.42 * Notable Separation: 0.42 to 0.51 * Lopsided: 0.51 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.38 * Some Carryover: 0.38 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.7 * Near-Lock: 0.7 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 18% * As Expected: 18% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 25% * Very Upset-Prone: 25% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15.5% * As Expected: 15.5% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Notable Separation
00.340.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.65
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.80
Near-Lock
00.380.570.71
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%18%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.11
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.115
Well Within Noise
00.1850.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
CSKA Sofia48.00%18.00%18.00%6.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%2.00%1.00%———
Levski Sofia24.00%17.00%14.00%9.00%12.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%—
Spartak Pleven3.00%7.00%4.00%10.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%21.00%6.00%3.00%4.00%
Lokomotiv Sofia11.00%11.00%14.00%8.00%10.00%8.00%11.00%9.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%
Slavia Sofia5.00%10.00%9.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%3.00%
Spartak Plovdiv3.00%5.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%13.00%13.00%11.00%7.00%9.00%8.00%10.00%
Minyor Pernik1.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%12.00%10.00%9.00%13.00%9.00%11.00%7.00%4.00%
Spartak Varna4.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%10.00%15.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%
Botev Plovdiv—4.00%5.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%20.00%10.00%13.00%10.00%9.00%7.00%
Beroe—1.00%4.00%2.00%—4.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%13.00%24.00%36.00%
Dunav Ruse—1.00%1.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%16.00%20.00%20.00%
Cherno More1.00%7.00%5.00%8.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%11.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Beroe 100%
Botev Plovdiv 100%
CSKA Sofia 100%
Cherno More 100%
Dunav Ruse 100%
Levski Sofia 100%
Lokomotiv Sofia 100%
Minyor Pernik 100%
Slavia Sofia 100%
Spartak Pleven 100%
Spartak Plovdiv 100%
Spartak Varna 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1958-03-08 Minyor Pernik L 1-266.7 1564 1570 58.14% 24.85% 17.01%+0.67 -7.5 0
1958-03-08 @ Slavia Sofia W 2-166.7 1570 1564 17.01% 24.85% 58.14%-0.67 +7.5 2
1958-03-09 Spartak Plovdiv D 0-055.2 1395 1522 44.46% 25.70% 29.84%-0.04 -0.5 1
1958-03-09 @ Beroe D 0-055.2 1522 1395 29.84% 25.70% 44.46%+0.04 +0.5 1
1958-03-09 Spartak Pleven L 0-157.3 1489 1557 51.61% 25.53% 22.86%+0.30 -7.1 0
1958-03-09 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-057.3 1557 1489 22.86% 25.53% 51.61%-0.30 +7.1 2
1958-03-09 Cherno More W 4-042.1 1690 1546 70.02% 21.59% 8.39%+1.53 +5.2 2
1958-03-09 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-442.1 1546 1690 8.39% 21.59% 70.02%-1.53 -5.2 0
1958-03-09 Lokomotiv Sofia D 1-163.3 1413 1612 34.77% 25.30% 39.93%-0.46 +0.1 1
1958-03-09 @ Dunav Ruse D 1-163.3 1612 1413 39.93% 25.30% 34.77%+0.46 -0.2 1
1958-03-09 Levski Sofia L 0-160.1 1535 1644 46.81% 25.70% 27.50%+0.07 -6.5 0
1958-03-09 @ Spartak Varna W 1-060.1 1644 1535 27.50% 25.70% 46.81%-0.07 +6.5 2
1958-03-15 Minyor Pernik W 4-362.2 1612 1577 61.82% 24.17% 14.01%+0.90 +2.1 3
1958-03-15 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 3-462.2 1577 1612 14.01% 24.17% 61.82%-0.90 -2.1 2
1958-03-15 Slavia Sofia W 1-048.9 1564 1556 59.40% 24.65% 15.95%+0.75 +2.7 4
1958-03-15 @ Spartak Pleven L 0-148.9 1556 1564 15.95% 24.65% 59.40%-0.75 -2.7 0
1958-03-16 Spartak Varna L 1-361.7 1541 1528 59.86% 24.56% 15.58%+0.77 -13.3 0
1958-03-16 @ Cherno More W 3-161.7 1528 1541 15.58% 24.56% 59.86%-0.77 +13.3 2
1958-03-16 Beroe W 3-247.5 1414 1394 60.44% 24.46% 15.10%+0.81 +2.3 3
1958-03-16 @ Dunav Ruse L 2-347.5 1394 1414 15.10% 24.46% 60.44%-0.81 -2.3 1
1958-03-16 Botev Plovdiv W 2-042.0 1650 1482 71.63% 20.89% 7.47%+1.68 +2.4 4
1958-03-16 @ Levski Sofia L 0-242.0 1482 1650 7.47% 20.89% 71.63%-1.68 -2.4 0
1958-03-16 CSKA Sofia D 2-273.9 1523 1695 38.40% 25.53% 36.07%-0.30 -0.0 2
1958-03-16 @ Spartak Plovdiv D 2-273.9 1695 1523 36.07% 25.53% 38.40%+0.30 +0.0 3
1958-03-19 Dunav Ruse W 1-043.0 1695 1416 78.06% 17.48% 4.46%+2.32 +0.7 5
1958-03-19 @ CSKA Sofia L 0-143.0 1416 1695 4.46% 17.48% 78.06%-2.32 -0.7 3
1958-03-22 Lokomotiv Sofia D 1-162.6 1392 1614 31.70% 25.03% 43.27%-0.59 +0.3 2
1958-03-22 @ Beroe D 1-162.6 1614 1392 43.27% 25.03% 31.70%+0.59 -0.3 4
1958-03-23 Cherno More W 3-040.8 1479 1528 53.81% 25.36% 20.83%+0.42 +9.5 2
1958-03-23 @ Botev Plovdiv L 0-340.8 1528 1479 20.83% 25.36% 53.81%-0.42 -9.5 0
1958-03-23 Spartak Pleven W 2-154.2 1575 1567 59.40% 24.65% 15.95%+0.75 +2.6 4
1958-03-23 @ Minyor Pernik L 1-254.2 1567 1575 15.95% 24.65% 59.40%-0.75 -2.6 4
1958-03-23 Spartak Plovdiv W 1-046.7 1542 1523 60.42% 24.46% 15.12%+0.81 +2.6 4
1958-03-23 @ Spartak Varna L 0-146.7 1523 1542 15.12% 24.46% 60.42%-0.81 -2.6 2
1958-03-29 Slavia Sofia W 1-048.6 1518 1554 55.17% 25.23% 19.60%+0.49 +3.3 2
1958-03-29 @ Cherno More L 0-148.6 1554 1518 19.60% 25.23% 55.17%-0.49 -3.3 0
1958-03-29 Spartak Varna D 2-265.6 1415 1544 44.25% 25.70% 30.05%-0.05 -0.3 4
1958-03-29 @ Dunav Ruse D 2-265.6 1544 1415 30.05% 25.70% 44.25%+0.05 +0.3 5
1958-03-29 Minyor Pernik W 3-044.1 1652 1578 65.08% 23.34% 11.59%+1.14 +5.5 6
1958-03-29 @ Levski Sofia L 0-344.1 1578 1652 11.59% 23.34% 65.08%-1.14 -5.5 4
1958-04-05 Levski Sofia L 0-355.0 1550 1658 46.96% 25.69% 27.34%+0.07 -17.9 0
1958-04-05 @ Slavia Sofia W 3-055.0 1658 1550 27.34% 25.69% 46.96%-0.07 +17.9 8
1958-04-06 Spartak Pleven D 1-168.6 1614 1564 63.03% 23.89% 13.08%+0.99 -1.6 5
1958-04-06 @ Lokomotiv Sofia D 1-168.6 1564 1614 13.08% 23.89% 63.03%-0.99 +1.6 5
1958-04-06 Botev Plovdiv D 2-267.9 1520 1489 61.48% 24.24% 14.28%+0.88 -1.1 3
1958-04-06 @ Spartak Plovdiv D 2-267.9 1489 1520 14.28% 24.24% 61.48%-0.88 +1.1 3
1958-04-12 Spartak Plovdiv W 2-151.1 1533 1519 59.94% 24.55% 15.51%+0.78 +2.5 2
1958-04-12 @ Slavia Sofia L 1-251.1 1519 1533 15.51% 24.55% 59.94%-0.78 -2.5 3
1958-04-13 Dunav Ruse D 0-055.5 1490 1415 65.08% 23.33% 11.58%+1.14 -2.0 4
1958-04-13 @ Botev Plovdiv D 0-055.5 1415 1490 11.58% 23.33% 65.08%-1.14 +2.0 5
1958-04-13 Lokomotiv Sofia D 1-171.2 1696 1612 65.74% 23.14% 11.13%+1.19 -1.8 6
1958-04-13 @ CSKA Sofia D 1-171.2 1612 1696 11.13% 23.14% 65.74%-1.19 +1.8 6
1958-04-13 Cherno More W 4-252.2 1572 1522 63.11% 23.87% 13.02%+0.99 +3.3 6
1958-04-13 @ Minyor Pernik L 2-452.2 1522 1572 13.02% 23.87% 63.11%-0.99 -3.3 2
1958-04-13 Levski Sofia L 0-161.4 1566 1676 46.68% 25.70% 27.62%+0.06 -6.5 5
1958-04-13 @ Spartak Pleven W 1-061.4 1676 1566 27.62% 25.70% 46.68%-0.06 +6.5 10
1958-04-13 Beroe W 2-143.7 1544 1392 70.59% 21.35% 8.06%+1.58 +1.3 7
1958-04-13 @ Spartak Varna L 1-243.7 1392 1544 8.06% 21.35% 70.59%-1.58 -1.3 2
1958-04-16 CSKA Sofia L 0-149.4 1391 1694 22.62% 23.62% 53.76%-1.06 -3.6 2
1958-04-16 @ Beroe W 1-049.4 1694 1391 53.76% 23.62% 22.62%+1.06 +3.6 8
1958-04-19 Spartak Varna W 2-153.2 1698 1546 70.57% 21.36% 8.07%+1.58 +1.3 10
1958-04-19 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-253.2 1546 1698 8.07% 21.36% 70.57%-1.58 -1.3 7
1958-04-20 Botev Plovdiv W 3-253.1 1387 1488 47.82% 25.68% 26.50%+0.12 +3.8 4
1958-04-20 @ Beroe L 2-353.1 1488 1387 26.50% 25.68% 47.82%-0.12 -3.8 4
1958-04-20 Spartak Pleven L 1-264.0 1518 1560 54.55% 25.30% 20.15%+0.46 -7.0 2
1958-04-20 @ Cherno More W 2-164.0 1560 1518 20.15% 25.30% 54.55%-0.46 +7.1 7
1958-04-20 Slavia Sofia L 0-152.1 1417 1535 45.63% 25.70% 28.67%+0.01 -6.4 5
1958-04-20 @ Dunav Ruse W 1-052.1 1535 1417 28.67% 25.70% 45.63%-0.01 +6.4 4
1958-04-20 Levski Sofia W 1-055.0 1614 1682 51.60% 25.53% 22.87%+0.30 +3.7 8
1958-04-20 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-155.0 1682 1614 22.87% 25.53% 51.60%-0.30 -3.7 10
1958-04-20 Minyor Pernik W 4-362.2 1516 1575 52.65% 25.46% 21.90%+0.36 +3.1 5
1958-04-20 @ Spartak Plovdiv L 3-462.2 1575 1516 21.90% 25.46% 52.65%-0.36 -3.1 6
1958-04-26 Cherno More L 0-166.3 1679 1511 71.59% 20.92% 7.50%+1.67 -9.5 10
1958-04-26 @ Levski Sofia W 1-066.3 1511 1679 7.50% 20.92% 71.59%-1.67 +9.5 4
1958-04-27 CSKA Sofia L 0-155.8 1484 1699 32.67% 25.13% 42.20%-0.55 -4.9 4
1958-04-27 @ Botev Plovdiv W 1-055.8 1699 1484 42.20% 25.13% 32.67%+0.55 +4.9 12
1958-04-27 Dunav Ruse W 1-040.5 1572 1410 71.21% 21.08% 7.71%+1.64 +1.3 8
1958-04-27 @ Minyor Pernik L 0-140.5 1410 1572 7.71% 21.08% 71.21%-1.64 -1.3 5
1958-04-27 Beroe W 6-033.7 1541 1391 70.47% 21.41% 8.13%+1.57 +7.4 6
1958-04-27 @ Slavia Sofia L 0-633.7 1391 1541 8.13% 21.41% 70.47%-1.57 -7.4 4
1958-04-27 Spartak Plovdiv D 0-061.8 1567 1519 62.85% 23.93% 13.22%+0.97 -1.8 8
1958-04-27 @ Spartak Pleven D 0-061.8 1519 1567 13.22% 23.93% 62.85%-0.97 +1.8 6
1958-04-27 Lokomotiv Sofia W 6-252.0 1544 1618 51.04% 25.56% 23.40%+0.27 +9.6 9
1958-04-27 @ Spartak Varna L 2-652.0 1618 1544 23.40% 25.56% 51.04%-0.27 -9.6 8
1958-05-31 Slavia Sofia W 2-153.3 1704 1549 70.77% 21.27% 7.95%+1.60 +1.3 14
1958-05-31 @ CSKA Sofia L 1-253.3 1549 1704 7.95% 21.27% 70.77%-1.60 -1.3 6
1958-06-07 Spartak Pleven D 1-161.2 1409 1565 40.70% 25.62% 33.68%-0.21 -0.2 6
1958-06-07 @ Dunav Ruse D 1-161.2 1565 1409 33.68% 25.62% 40.70%+0.21 +0.2 9
1958-06-07 Botev Plovdiv L 1-264.9 1554 1479 65.06% 23.34% 11.60%+1.13 -8.3 9
1958-06-07 @ Spartak Varna W 2-164.9 1479 1554 11.60% 23.34% 65.06%-1.13 +8.3 6
1958-06-11 Minyor Pernik W 2-046.5 1384 1573 36.01% 25.39% 38.60%-0.40 +10.5 6
1958-06-11 @ Beroe L 0-246.5 1573 1384 38.60% 25.39% 36.01%+0.40 -10.5 8
1958-06-12 Spartak Pleven D 2-276.0 1705 1565 69.78% 21.69% 8.53%+1.51 -1.5 15
1958-06-12 @ CSKA Sofia D 2-276.0 1565 1705 8.53% 21.69% 69.78%-1.51 +1.5 10
1958-06-15 Spartak Plovdiv L 0-159.0 1521 1521 58.63% 24.78% 16.60%+0.70 -8.0 4
1958-06-15 @ Cherno More W 1-059.0 1521 1521 16.60% 24.78% 58.63%-0.70 +8.0 8
1958-06-15 Dunav Ruse W 4-141.0 1669 1409 77.05% 18.08% 4.87%+2.21 +1.8 12
1958-06-15 @ Levski Sofia L 1-441.0 1409 1669 4.87% 18.08% 77.05%-2.21 -1.8 6
1958-06-15 Beroe W 2-144.1 1567 1394 71.89% 20.78% 7.33%+1.70 +1.2 12
1958-06-15 @ Spartak Pleven L 1-244.1 1394 1567 7.33% 20.78% 71.89%-1.70 -1.2 6
1958-06-22 CSKA Sofia L 0-160.6 1563 1704 42.73% 25.68% 31.59%-0.12 -6.0 8
1958-06-22 @ Minyor Pernik W 1-060.6 1704 1563 31.59% 25.68% 42.73%+0.12 +6.0 17
1958-06-22 Spartak Varna W 1-048.3 1568 1546 60.68% 24.41% 14.91%+0.83 +2.6 14
1958-06-22 @ Spartak Pleven L 0-148.3 1546 1568 14.91% 24.41% 60.68%-0.83 -2.6 9
1958-06-22 Levski Sofia D 2-273.5 1529 1671 42.56% 25.67% 31.76%-0.12 -0.2 9
1958-06-22 @ Spartak Plovdiv D 2-273.5 1671 1529 31.76% 25.67% 42.56%+0.12 +0.2 13
1958-06-26 Cherno More W 2-043.2 1608 1513 66.63% 22.85% 10.52%+1.25 +3.5 10
1958-06-26 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-243.2 1513 1608 10.52% 22.85% 66.63%-1.25 -3.5 4
1958-06-26 Minyor Pernik D 1-166.0 1543 1557 57.35% 24.97% 17.68%+0.62 -1.2 10
1958-06-26 @ Spartak Varna D 1-166.0 1557 1543 17.68% 24.97% 57.35%-0.62 +1.2 9
1958-06-27 Levski Sofia W 2-053.8 1393 1671 25.16% 24.13% 50.71%-0.92 +13.0 8
1958-06-27 @ Beroe L 0-253.8 1671 1393 50.71% 24.13% 25.16%+0.92 -13.0 13
1958-06-28 Slavia Sofia D 4-474.4 1488 1548 52.56% 25.46% 21.98%+0.35 -0.5 7
1958-06-28 @ Botev Plovdiv D 4-474.4 1548 1488 21.98% 25.46% 52.56%-0.35 +0.5 7
1958-06-28 Cherno More W 2-041.6 1407 1509 47.63% 25.68% 26.69%+0.11 +8.0 8
1958-06-28 @ Dunav Ruse L 0-241.6 1509 1407 26.69% 25.68% 47.63%-0.11 -8.0 4
1958-06-28 Spartak Plovdiv W 3-041.8 1612 1529 65.67% 23.16% 11.17%+1.18 +5.3 12
1958-06-28 @ Lokomotiv Sofia L 0-341.8 1529 1612 11.17% 23.16% 65.67%-1.18 -5.3 9
1958-07-02 Lokomotiv Sofia W 1-052.9 1487 1617 44.13% 25.70% 30.17%-0.05 +4.6 9
1958-07-02 @ Botev Plovdiv L 0-152.9 1617 1487 30.17% 25.70% 44.13%+0.05 -4.6 12
1958-07-05 Lokomotiv Sofia W 3-153.6 1548 1612 52.06% 25.50% 22.44%+0.33 +6.0 9
1958-07-05 @ Slavia Sofia L 1-353.6 1612 1548 22.44% 25.50% 52.06%-0.33 -6.0 12
1958-07-06 Beroe W 2-143.8 1501 1406 66.61% 22.86% 10.53%+1.25 +1.7 6
1958-07-06 @ Cherno More L 1-243.8 1406 1501 10.53% 22.86% 66.61%-1.25 -1.7 8
1958-07-06 CSKA Sofia D 2-276.0 1658 1710 53.48% 25.39% 21.13%+0.40 -0.7 14
1958-07-06 @ Levski Sofia D 2-276.0 1710 1658 21.13% 25.39% 53.48%-0.40 +0.8 18
1958-07-06 Botev Plovdiv W 4-038.6 1558 1492 64.41% 23.53% 12.07%+1.09 +7.5 11
1958-07-06 @ Minyor Pernik L 0-438.6 1492 1558 12.07% 23.53% 64.41%-1.09 -7.5 9
1958-07-06 Dunav Ruse W 6-136.8 1524 1415 67.59% 22.53% 9.89%+1.33 +6.3 11
1958-07-06 @ Spartak Plovdiv L 1-636.8 1415 1524 9.89% 22.53% 67.59%-1.33 -6.3 8
1958-07-08 Spartak Varna W 5-249.7 1554 1542 59.79% 24.58% 15.63%+0.77 +5.4 11
1958-07-08 @ Slavia Sofia L 2-549.7 1542 1554 15.63% 24.58% 59.79%-0.77 -5.4 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1958-04-26 7.50% Cherno More 1511 1 @ Levski Sofia 1679 0
2 1958-06-07 11.60% Botev Plovdiv 1479 2 @ Spartak Varna 1554 1
3 1958-03-16 15.58% Spartak Varna 1528 3 @ Cherno More 1541 1
4 1958-06-15 16.60% Spartak Plovdiv 1521 1 @ Cherno More 1521 0
5 1958-03-08 17.01% Minyor Pernik 1570 2 @ Slavia Sofia 1564 1
6 1958-04-20 20.15% Spartak Pleven 1560 2 @ Cherno More 1518 1
7 1958-03-09 22.86% Spartak Pleven 1557 1 @ Botev Plovdiv 1489 0
8 1958-06-27 25.16% @ Beroe 1393 2 Levski Sofia 1671 0
9 1958-04-05 27.34% Levski Sofia 1658 3 @ Slavia Sofia 1550 0
10 1958-03-09 27.50% Levski Sofia 1644 1 @ Spartak Varna 1535 0
11 1958-04-13 27.62% Levski Sofia 1676 1 @ Spartak Pleven 1566 0
12 1958-04-20 28.67% Slavia Sofia 1535 1 @ Dunav Ruse 1417 0
13 1958-06-22 31.59% CSKA Sofia 1704 1 @ Minyor Pernik 1563 0
14 1958-06-11 36.01% @ Beroe 1384 2 Minyor Pernik 1573 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-04-05 17.92 Levski Sofia 3 1658 27.34% @ Slavia Sofia 0 1550 46.96% 25.69%
2 1958-03-16 13.33 Spartak Varna 3 1528 15.58% @ Cherno More 1 1541 59.86% 24.56%
3 1958-06-27 13.02 @ Beroe 2 1393 25.16% Levski Sofia 0 1671 50.71% 24.13%
4 1958-06-11 10.49 @ Beroe 2 1384 36.01% Minyor Pernik 0 1573 38.60% 25.39%
5 1958-04-27 9.61 @ Spartak Varna 6 1544 51.04% Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1618 23.40% 25.56%
6 1958-04-26 9.55 Cherno More 1 1511 7.50% @ Levski Sofia 0 1679 71.59% 20.92%
7 1958-03-23 9.45 @ Botev Plovdiv 3 1479 53.81% Cherno More 0 1528 20.83% 25.36%
8 1958-06-07 8.31 Botev Plovdiv 2 1479 11.60% @ Spartak Varna 1 1554 65.06% 23.34%
9 1958-06-15 8.01 Spartak Plovdiv 1 1521 16.60% @ Cherno More 0 1521 58.63% 24.78%
10 1958-06-28 7.95 @ Dunav Ruse 2 1407 47.63% Cherno More 0 1509 26.69% 25.68%
11 1958-07-06 7.54 @ Minyor Pernik 4 1558 64.41% Botev Plovdiv 0 1492 12.07% 23.53%
12 1958-03-08 7.49 Minyor Pernik 2 1570 17.01% @ Slavia Sofia 1 1564 58.14% 24.85%
13 1958-04-27 7.36 @ Slavia Sofia 6 1541 70.47% Beroe 0 1391 8.13% 21.41%
14 1958-03-09 7.11 Spartak Pleven 1 1557 22.86% @ Botev Plovdiv 0 1489 51.61% 25.53%
15 1958-04-20 7.06 Spartak Pleven 2 1560 20.15% @ Cherno More 1 1518 54.55% 25.30%
16 1958-03-09 6.53 Levski Sofia 1 1644 27.50% @ Spartak Varna 0 1535 46.81% 25.70%
17 1958-04-13 6.51 Levski Sofia 1 1676 27.62% @ Spartak Pleven 0 1566 46.68% 25.70%
18 1958-04-20 6.38 Slavia Sofia 1 1535 28.67% @ Dunav Ruse 0 1417 45.63% 25.70%
19 1958-07-06 6.30 @ Spartak Plovdiv 6 1524 67.59% Dunav Ruse 1 1415 9.89% 22.53%
20 1958-06-22 6.05 CSKA Sofia 1 1704 31.59% @ Minyor Pernik 0 1563 42.73% 25.68%
21 1958-07-05 5.99 @ Slavia Sofia 3 1548 52.06% Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1612 22.44% 25.50%
22 1958-03-29 5.55 @ Levski Sofia 3 1652 65.08% Minyor Pernik 0 1578 11.59% 23.34%
23 1958-07-08 5.38 @ Slavia Sofia 5 1554 59.79% Spartak Varna 2 1542 15.63% 24.58%
24 1958-06-28 5.34 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1612 65.67% Spartak Plovdiv 0 1529 11.17% 23.16%
25 1958-03-09 5.20 @ CSKA Sofia 4 1690 70.02% Cherno More 0 1546 8.39% 21.59%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-06-12 76.0 @ CSKA Sofia 2 1705 69.78% Spartak Pleven 2 1565 8.53% 21.69%
2 1958-07-06 76.0 @ Levski Sofia 2 1658 53.48% CSKA Sofia 2 1710 21.13% 25.39%
3 1958-06-28 74.4 @ Botev Plovdiv 4 1488 52.56% Slavia Sofia 4 1548 21.98% 25.46%
4 1958-03-16 73.9 @ Spartak Plovdiv 2 1523 38.40% CSKA Sofia 2 1695 36.07% 25.53%
5 1958-06-22 73.5 @ Spartak Plovdiv 2 1529 42.56% Levski Sofia 2 1671 31.76% 25.67%
6 1958-04-13 71.2 @ CSKA Sofia 1 1696 65.74% Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1612 11.13% 23.14%
7 1958-04-06 68.6 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1614 63.03% Spartak Pleven 1 1564 13.08% 23.89%
8 1958-04-06 67.9 @ Spartak Plovdiv 2 1520 61.48% Botev Plovdiv 2 1489 14.28% 24.24%
9 1958-03-08 66.7 Minyor Pernik 2 1570 17.01% @ Slavia Sofia 1 1564 58.14% 24.85%
10 1958-04-26 66.3 Cherno More 1 1511 7.50% @ Levski Sofia 0 1679 71.59% 20.92%
11 1958-06-26 66.0 @ Spartak Varna 1 1543 57.35% Minyor Pernik 1 1557 17.68% 24.97%
12 1958-03-29 65.6 @ Dunav Ruse 2 1415 44.25% Spartak Varna 2 1544 30.05% 25.70%
13 1958-06-07 64.9 Botev Plovdiv 2 1479 11.60% @ Spartak Varna 1 1554 65.06% 23.34%
14 1958-04-20 64.0 Spartak Pleven 2 1560 20.15% @ Cherno More 1 1518 54.55% 25.30%
15 1958-03-09 63.3 @ Dunav Ruse 1 1413 34.77% Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1612 39.93% 25.30%
16 1958-03-22 62.6 @ Beroe 1 1392 31.70% Lokomotiv Sofia 1 1614 43.27% 25.03%
17 1958-03-15 62.2 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 4 1612 61.82% Minyor Pernik 3 1577 14.01% 24.17%
18 1958-04-20 62.2 @ Spartak Plovdiv 4 1516 52.65% Minyor Pernik 3 1575 21.90% 25.46%
19 1958-04-27 61.8 @ Spartak Pleven 0 1567 62.85% Spartak Plovdiv 0 1519 13.22% 23.93%
20 1958-03-16 61.7 Spartak Varna 3 1528 15.58% @ Cherno More 1 1541 59.86% 24.56%
21 1958-04-13 61.4 Levski Sofia 1 1676 27.62% @ Spartak Pleven 0 1566 46.68% 25.70%
22 1958-06-07 61.2 @ Dunav Ruse 1 1409 40.70% Spartak Pleven 1 1565 33.68% 25.62%
23 1958-06-22 60.6 CSKA Sofia 1 1704 31.59% @ Minyor Pernik 0 1563 42.73% 25.68%
24 1958-03-09 60.1 Levski Sofia 1 1644 27.50% @ Spartak Varna 0 1535 46.81% 25.70%
25 1958-06-15 59.0 Spartak Plovdiv 1 1521 16.60% @ Cherno More 0 1521 58.63% 24.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1958-04-27 33.7 @ Slavia Sofia 6 1541 70.47% Beroe 0 1391 8.13% 21.41%
2 1958-07-06 36.8 @ Spartak Plovdiv 6 1524 67.59% Dunav Ruse 1 1415 9.89% 22.53%
3 1958-07-06 38.6 @ Minyor Pernik 4 1558 64.41% Botev Plovdiv 0 1492 12.07% 23.53%
4 1958-04-27 40.5 @ Minyor Pernik 1 1572 71.21% Dunav Ruse 0 1410 7.71% 21.08%
5 1958-03-23 40.8 @ Botev Plovdiv 3 1479 53.81% Cherno More 0 1528 20.83% 25.36%
6 1958-06-15 41.0 @ Levski Sofia 4 1669 77.05% Dunav Ruse 1 1409 4.87% 18.08%
7 1958-06-28 41.6 @ Dunav Ruse 2 1407 47.63% Cherno More 0 1509 26.69% 25.68%
8 1958-06-28 41.8 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 3 1612 65.67% Spartak Plovdiv 0 1529 11.17% 23.16%
9 1958-03-16 42.0 @ Levski Sofia 2 1650 71.63% Botev Plovdiv 0 1482 7.47% 20.89%
10 1958-03-09 42.1 @ CSKA Sofia 4 1690 70.02% Cherno More 0 1546 8.39% 21.59%
11 1958-03-19 43.0 @ CSKA Sofia 1 1695 78.06% Dunav Ruse 0 1416 4.46% 17.48%
12 1958-06-26 43.2 @ Lokomotiv Sofia 2 1608 66.63% Cherno More 0 1513 10.52% 22.85%
13 1958-04-13 43.7 @ Spartak Varna 2 1544 70.59% Beroe 1 1392 8.06% 21.35%
14 1958-07-06 43.8 @ Cherno More 2 1501 66.61% Beroe 1 1406 10.53% 22.86%
15 1958-03-29 44.1 @ Levski Sofia 3 1652 65.08% Minyor Pernik 0 1578 11.59% 23.34%
16 1958-06-15 44.1 @ Spartak Pleven 2 1567 71.89% Beroe 1 1394 7.33% 20.78%
17 1958-06-11 46.5 @ Beroe 2 1384 36.01% Minyor Pernik 0 1573 38.60% 25.39%
18 1958-03-23 46.7 @ Spartak Varna 1 1542 60.42% Spartak Plovdiv 0 1523 15.12% 24.46%
19 1958-03-16 47.5 @ Dunav Ruse 3 1414 60.44% Beroe 2 1394 15.10% 24.46%
20 1958-06-22 48.3 @ Spartak Pleven 1 1568 60.68% Spartak Varna 0 1546 14.91% 24.41%
21 1958-03-29 48.6 @ Cherno More 1 1518 55.17% Slavia Sofia 0 1554 19.60% 25.23%
22 1958-03-15 48.9 @ Spartak Pleven 1 1564 59.40% Slavia Sofia 0 1556 15.95% 24.65%
23 1958-04-16 49.4 CSKA Sofia 1 1694 53.76% @ Beroe 0 1391 22.62% 23.62%
24 1958-07-08 49.7 @ Slavia Sofia 5 1554 59.79% Spartak Varna 2 1542 15.63% 24.58%
25 1958-04-12 51.1 @ Slavia Sofia 2 1533 59.94% Spartak Plovdiv 1 1519 15.51% 24.55%