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1938-39 League of Ireland Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Shamrock Rovers

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shamrock Rovers

8.54 points above expected

36 points · 27.46 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Waterford

6.65 points below expected

16 points · 22.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 22 16 4 2 36 60 32 +28 27.46 +8.54
2 Sligo Rovers 22 10 7 5 27 50 31 +19 23.00 +4.00
3 Dundalk 22 10 7 5 27 48 31 +17 25.35 +1.65
4 St. James Gate 22 10 3 9 23 59 48 +11 23.55 -0.55
5 Limerick 22 9 4 9 22 36 38 -2 21.76 +0.24
6 Shelbourne 22 9 4 9 22 40 48 -8 19.68 +2.32
7 Bohemian 22 8 4 10 20 41 46 -5 20.43 -0.43
8 Drumconda 22 6 6 10 18 38 45 -7 19.24 -1.24
9 Bray Unknowns 22 7 4 11 18 41 49 -8 16.80 +1.20
10 Brideville 22 6 6 10 18 37 49 -12 23.05 -5.05
11 Cork City (1st) 22 7 3 12 17 39 49 -10 21.03 -4.03
12 Waterford 22 4 8 10 16 36 59 -23 22.65 -6.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shamrock Rovers 36 27.46 +8.54
2 Sligo Rovers 27 23.00 +4.00
3 Shelbourne 22 19.68 +2.32
4 Dundalk 27 25.35 +1.65
5 Bray Unknowns 18 16.80 +1.20

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Waterford 16 22.65 -6.65
2 Brideville 18 23.05 -5.05
3 Cork City (1st) 17 21.03 -4.03
4 Drumconda 18 19.24 -1.24
5 St. James Gate 23 23.55 -0.55

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 8 Dec 11 – Jan 29 1 in 491
2 Bray Unknowns 3 Jan 29 – Feb 5 1 in 64
3 Shelbourne 2 Mar 18 – Mar 29 1 in 39
4 Bohemian 3 Mar 18 – Apr 1 1 in 26
5 St. James Gate 2 Jan 29 – Feb 5 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bohemian 7 Jan 14 – Mar 11 1 in 720
2 Drumconda 5 Nov 27 – Dec 27 1 in 305
3 Bray Unknowns 6 Nov 13 – Dec 18 1 in 111
4 Brideville 3 Jan 22 – Feb 5 1 in 28
5 Limerick 3 Feb 19 – Mar 5 1 in 26

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shamrock Rovers 12 Nov 13 – Jan 29 1 in 125
2 Shelbourne 5 Mar 18 – Apr 15 1 in 27
3 Sligo Rovers 6 Nov 20 – Dec 26 1 in 26
4 Drumconda 4 Apr 2 – Apr 22 1 in 17
5 Bray Unknowns 4 Jan 29 – Feb 19 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Waterford 8 Nov 13 – Dec 31 1 in 74
2 Dundalk 5 Mar 12 – Apr 10 1 in 34
3 Drumconda 7 Nov 27 – Jan 8 1 in 29
4 Limerick 7 Feb 19 – Apr 9 1 in 20
5 Bohemian 7 Jan 14 – Mar 11 1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shamrock Rovers 1665 36 +24 7 6.8 +0.2
Dundalk 1578 27 +29 6 5.2 +0.8
Sligo Rovers 1532 27 +8 6 4.8 +1.2
St. James Gate 1538 23 -14 5 6.4 -1.4
Shelbourne 1435 22 +14 6 4.9 +1.1
Limerick 1405 22 -20 5 4.8 +0.2
Bohemian 1442 20 +30 6 4.2 +1.8
Bray Unknowns 1442 18 +22 6 4.3 +1.7
Drumconda 1386 18 -3 4 4.0 -0.0
Brideville 1425 18 -55 2 4.1 -2.1
Cork City (1st) 1424 17 -20 3 4.5 -1.5
Waterford 1418 16 -39 3 5.2 -2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI CC( DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SR SJG WAT
Bohemian —
1-0-1
3.16
0-1-1
2.44
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.94
0-0-2
2.47
2-0-0
2.80
0-1-1
1.98
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.27
1-0-1
2.49
Bray Unknowns
1-0-1
2.38
 —
1-1-0
1.85
1-0-1
2.52
1-0-1
2.42
1-0-1
1.64
1-0-1
2.13
0-0-2
1.52
0-1-1
2.57
1-0-1
1.83
0-0-2
2.15
0-2-0
2.02
Brideville
1-1-0
3.09
0-1-1
3.67
 —
1-0-1
3.15
0-0-2
3.37
1-0-1
2.57
0-1-1
3.17
0-1-1
1.66
1-0-1
3.07
0-1-1
2.67
2-0-0
2.72
0-1-1
2.72
Cork City (1st)
1-0-1
2.51
1-0-1
3.01
1-0-1
2.38
 —
2-0-0
2.88
0-1-1
2.01
1-0-1
2.51
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.54
0-0-2
2.71
1-1-0
2.41
Drumconda
1-0-1
2.59
1-0-1
3.11
2-0-0
2.16
0-0-2
2.64
 —
0-2-0
1.87
0-1-1
2.61
0-0-2
1.56
1-0-1
2.70
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.48
Dundalk
2-0-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.90
1-0-1
2.96
1-1-0
3.52
0-2-0
3.67
 —
1-0-1
3.58
0-0-2
2.72
1-1-0
3.37
0-2-0
3.20
1-1-0
2.96
2-0-0
3.30
Limerick
0-0-2
2.73
1-0-1
3.40
1-1-0
2.36
1-0-1
3.01
1-1-0
2.92
1-0-1
1.95
 —
0-1-1
2.01
2-0-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.70
0-0-2
2.66
1-1-0
2.48
Shamrock Rovers
1-1-0
3.56
2-0-0
4.04
1-1-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.98
2-0-0
2.81
1-1-0
3.52
 —
1-0-1
3.60
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.36
2-0-0
3.09
Shelbourne
1-0-1
2.62
1-1-0
2.96
1-0-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.65
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.16
0-0-2
2.82
1-0-1
1.95
 —
1-0-1
2.44
1-0-1
2.25
1-1-0
2.50
Sligo Rovers
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
3.70
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.99
1-1-0
3.13
0-2-0
2.33
1-0-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.27
1-0-1
3.10
 —
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
2.82
St. James Gate
0-1-1
3.25
2-0-0
3.38
0-0-2
2.80
2-0-0
2.82
0-1-1
3.39
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
3.27
1-0-1
2.69
 —
1-0-1
2.96
Waterford
1-0-1
3.04
0-2-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.80
0-1-1
3.12
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.23
0-1-1
3.04
0-0-2
2.45
0-1-1
3.03
0-1-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.57
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.64 +5.4
Allowed 0.68 -5.3
Differential 0.87 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.76%4.17%3.41%3.79%1.14%0.76%14.02%
14.17%8.33%4.92%4.17%2.27%2.27%26.14%
23.41%4.92%10.61%5.68%3.03%1.14%28.79%
33.79%4.17%5.68%3.03%0.38%1.14%18.18%
41.14%2.27%3.03%0.38%—0.38%7.20%
5+0.76%2.27%1.14%1.14%0.38%—5.68%
Total14.02%26.14%28.79%18.18%7.20%5.68%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.99 1.99 +0.00
SD 1.44 1.44 2.14
CV 0.73 0.73 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%9.09%4.55%—18.18%
14.55%4.55%—9.09%——18.18%
29.09%4.55%13.64%18.18%——45.45%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+————4.55%—4.55%
Total18.18%9.09%27.27%36.36%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.09 -0.23
SD 1.55 1.27 1.97
CV 0.83 0.61 —
Max 7 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%———4.55%13.64%
1—4.55%9.09%4.55%——18.18%
2—9.09%13.64%4.55%13.64%—40.91%
34.55%13.64%———4.55%22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%40.91%22.73%9.09%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.23 -0.36
SD 1.08 1.69 2.22
CV 0.58 0.76 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%—9.09%4.55%—27.27%
1—4.55%9.09%——4.55%18.18%
24.55%4.55%18.18%——4.55%31.82%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4———————
5+——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
Total4.55%27.27%36.36%18.18%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 2.23 -0.55
SD 1.49 1.41 2.06
CV 0.89 0.63 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
14.55%4.55%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%45.45%
2—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total13.64%9.09%45.45%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 2.23 -0.45
SD 1.07 1.41 1.99
CV 0.60 0.63 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—18.18%————18.18%
14.55%9.09%—9.09%9.09%—31.82%
2—4.55%9.09%9.09%——22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%9.09%——18.18%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total4.55%36.36%18.18%31.82%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.73 2.05 -0.32
SD 1.35 1.13 1.49
CV 0.78 0.55 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%4.55%——13.64%
1—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
29.09%4.55%13.64%4.55%——31.82%
34.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total22.73%27.27%36.36%13.64%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 1.41 +0.77
SD 1.47 1.01 2.09
CV 0.67 0.72 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—9.09%9.09%4.55%—27.27%
14.55%9.09%9.09%—4.55%—27.27%
24.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%—9.09%———13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total22.73%18.18%36.36%9.09%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.73 -0.09
SD 1.68 1.32 2.47
CV 1.03 0.76 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%————9.09%
14.55%—————4.55%
29.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%13.64%13.64%9.09%——40.91%
4—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
5+—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
Total22.73%31.82%27.27%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 1.45 +1.27
SD 1.32 1.14 1.39
CV 0.48 0.79 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%4.55%—4.55%13.64%
118.18%4.55%————22.73%
2—4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%36.36%
34.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%22.73%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%18.18%22.73%13.64%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 2.18 -0.36
SD 1.10 1.92 2.13
CV 0.60 0.88 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—9.09%——13.64%
14.55%22.73%—4.55%——31.82%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+—13.64%————13.64%
Total18.18%45.45%13.64%22.73%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 1.41 +0.86
SD 1.93 1.05 2.40
CV 0.85 0.75 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
1—9.09%4.55%13.64%—4.55%31.82%
2———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
39.09%4.55%—4.55%—4.55%22.73%
4—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
5+—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
Total9.09%27.27%22.73%27.27%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 2.18 +0.50
SD 1.76 1.40 2.44
CV 0.65 0.64 —
Max 7 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%———4.55%
14.55%13.64%4.55%—9.09%13.64%45.45%
2—4.55%22.73%9.09%——36.36%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4—————4.55%4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%22.73%36.36%9.09%9.09%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.68 -1.05
SD 0.90 1.91 2.01
CV 0.55 0.71 —
Max 4 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shamrock Rovers 1665 36 27.46 +8.54 100.0% 19 22 25 27 30 33 34
Dundalk 1578 27 25.35 +1.65 73.0% 15 20 23 25 28 31 35
St. James Gate 1538 23 23.55 -0.55 51.0% 13 18 21 23 26 29 31
Sligo Rovers 1532 27 23.00 +4.00 85.0% 14 16 21 23 26 29 31
Bohemian 1442 20 20.43 -0.43 50.0% 11 16 18 20 22 26 28
Bray Unknowns 1442 18 16.80 +1.20 67.0% 9 11 14 17 19 22 25
Shelbourne 1435 22 19.68 +2.32 77.0% 10 13 17 19 22 25 28
Brideville 1425 18 23.05 -5.05 13.0% 14 17 20 23 26 28 31
Cork City (1st) 1424 17 21.03 -4.03 23.0% 13 15 18 21 23 27 32
Waterford 1418 16 22.65 -6.65 5.0% 15 16 20 23 25 29 32
Limerick 1405 22 21.76 +0.24 61.0% 12 15 20 22 24 28 30
Drumconda 1386 18 19.24 -1.24 38.0% 8 14 17 19 21 25 27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.82%
Strong Edge
54.55%22.73%22.73%
Elo Value
Home Edge
179 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0114.52500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.83 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.64+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.0
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
44%
Shamrock Rovers, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.41/gm
Runaway
00.110.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.88 * Some Luck: 2.88 to 4.31 * Lucky: 4.31 to 5.75 * Wild Swing: 5.75 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.91 * Close: 1.91 to 2.87 * Off: 2.87 to 3.83 * Way Off: 3.83 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.94 points
Some Luck
03.599
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.83
Close
02.395
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
100.00%
Shamrock Rovers
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.00%
Waterford
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 84.67
1.39
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
65%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
83%
Even
50%84%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.59
Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Lopsided
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.05
Weak Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
As Expected
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Shaky Favorites
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.70
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1220.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Shamrock Rovers44.00%23.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—2.00%——
Sligo Rovers9.00%8.00%13.00%14.00%8.00%13.00%10.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%3.00%
Dundalk18.00%21.00%15.00%9.00%20.00%8.00%5.00%1.00%——2.00%1.00%
St. James Gate6.00%17.00%17.00%8.00%8.00%13.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%2.00%—2.00%
Limerick2.00%6.00%7.00%11.00%7.00%11.00%14.00%16.00%7.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%
Shelbourne1.00%1.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%5.00%11.00%8.00%15.00%12.00%16.00%13.00%
Bohemian5.00%—1.00%10.00%8.00%5.00%15.00%11.00%10.00%13.00%16.00%6.00%
Drumconda—2.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%11.00%10.00%12.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%13.00%
Bray Unknowns———1.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%5.00%14.00%16.00%15.00%40.00%
Brideville5.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%11.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%3.00%4.00%
Cork City (1st)4.00%4.00%5.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%6.00%12.00%9.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%
Waterford6.00%8.00%8.00%10.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%9.00%10.00%8.00%7.00%3.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Cork City (1st) 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Sligo Rovers 100%
St. James Gate 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1938-11-13 Shamrock Rovers L 0-255.4 1539 1501 61.78% 23.52% 14.69%+0.85 -33.7 0
1938-11-13 @ Dundalk W 2-055.4 1501 1539 14.69% 23.52% 61.78%-0.85 +33.7 2
1938-11-13 Brideville W 2-149.6 1418 1523 47.10% 24.10% 28.80%+0.06 +8.8 2
1938-11-13 @ Drumconda L 1-249.6 1523 1418 28.80% 24.10% 47.10%-0.06 -8.8 0
1938-11-13 Bray Unknowns W 7-033.6 1432 1407 60.67% 23.62% 15.71%+0.78 +34.4 2
1938-11-13 @ Limerick L 0-733.6 1407 1432 15.71% 23.62% 60.67%-0.78 -34.4 0
1938-11-13 Sligo Rovers W 3-249.9 1437 1452 57.10% 23.85% 19.05%+0.56 +6.0 2
1938-11-13 @ Shelbourne L 2-349.9 1452 1437 19.05% 23.85% 57.10%-0.56 -6.0 0
1938-11-13 Cork City (1st) W 5-139.9 1481 1473 59.25% 23.73% 17.03%+0.69 +18.1 2
1938-11-13 @ St. James Gate L 1-539.9 1473 1481 17.03% 23.73% 59.25%-0.69 -18.1 0
1938-11-13 Bohemian L 4-765.3 1561 1467 65.88% 23.04% 11.09%+1.16 -33.6 0
1938-11-13 @ Waterford W 7-465.3 1467 1561 11.09% 23.04% 65.88%-1.16 +33.7 2
1938-11-19 Dundalk L 0-253.1 1501 1505 58.06% 23.80% 18.14%+0.61 -31.7 2
1938-11-19 @ Bohemian W 2-053.1 1505 1501 18.14% 23.80% 58.06%-0.61 +31.7 2
1938-11-19 Waterford D 2-267.3 1514 1527 57.26% 23.85% 18.89%+0.57 -1.9 1
1938-11-19 @ Brideville D 2-267.3 1527 1514 18.89% 23.85% 57.26%-0.57 +1.9 1
1938-11-20 Drumconda L 0-148.6 1373 1427 53.01% 24.01% 22.98%+0.34 -15.4 0
1938-11-20 @ Bray Unknowns W 1-048.6 1427 1373 22.98% 24.01% 53.01%-0.34 +15.4 4
1938-11-20 Shelbourne D 2-262.2 1455 1443 59.54% 23.71% 16.76%+0.70 -2.2 1
1938-11-20 @ Cork City (1st) D 2-262.2 1443 1455 16.76% 23.71% 59.54%-0.70 +2.1 3
1938-11-20 St. James Gate W 4-250.6 1535 1499 61.64% 23.54% 14.82%+0.84 +7.9 4
1938-11-20 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-450.6 1499 1535 14.82% 23.54% 61.64%-0.84 -7.9 2
1938-11-20 Limerick W 3-035.5 1446 1466 56.61% 23.88% 19.51%+0.53 +18.7 2
1938-11-20 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-335.5 1466 1446 19.51% 23.88% 56.61%-0.53 -18.7 2
1938-11-26 Bray Unknowns W 1-035.9 1445 1357 65.50% 23.09% 11.41%+1.13 +4.3 5
1938-11-26 @ Shelbourne L 0-135.9 1357 1445 11.41% 23.09% 65.50%-1.13 -4.2 0
1938-11-26 Brideville L 3-565.0 1491 1512 56.52% 23.88% 19.60%+0.52 -22.6 2
1938-11-26 @ St. James Gate W 5-365.0 1512 1491 19.60% 23.88% 56.52%-0.52 +22.6 3
1938-11-27 Sligo Rovers D 1-161.3 1537 1465 64.41% 23.24% 12.35%+1.04 -3.6 3
1938-11-27 @ Dundalk D 1-161.3 1465 1537 12.35% 23.24% 64.41%-1.04 +3.6 3
1938-11-27 Bohemian L 0-152.6 1443 1469 55.95% 23.91% 20.14%+0.49 -16.2 4
1938-11-27 @ Drumconda W 1-052.6 1469 1443 20.14% 23.91% 55.95%-0.49 +16.2 4
1938-11-27 Cork City (1st) W 2-144.9 1447 1452 58.03% 23.80% 18.17%+0.61 +6.1 4
1938-11-27 @ Limerick L 1-244.9 1452 1447 18.17% 23.80% 58.03%-0.61 -6.1 1
1938-11-27 Shamrock Rovers L 1-262.8 1529 1543 57.18% 23.85% 18.97%+0.56 -15.6 1
1938-11-27 @ Waterford W 2-162.8 1543 1529 18.97% 23.85% 57.18%-0.56 +15.6 6
1938-12-03 Shelbourne W 3-034.8 1485 1450 61.60% 23.54% 14.86%+0.84 +14.8 6
1938-12-03 @ Bohemian L 0-334.8 1450 1485 14.86% 23.54% 61.60%-0.84 -14.8 5
1938-12-04 St. James Gate L 2-452.9 1353 1468 45.69% 24.11% 30.21%+0.00 -19.7 0
1938-12-04 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-252.9 1468 1353 30.21% 24.11% 45.69%+0.00 +19.7 4
1938-12-04 Dundalk W 2-043.2 1534 1533 58.59% 23.77% 17.64%+0.65 +11.8 5
1938-12-04 @ Brideville L 0-243.2 1533 1534 17.64% 23.77% 58.59%-0.65 -11.8 3
1938-12-04 Waterford W 3-254.0 1446 1513 51.60% 24.05% 24.36%+0.27 +7.4 3
1938-12-04 @ Cork City (1st) L 2-354.0 1513 1446 24.36% 24.05% 51.60%-0.27 -7.3 1
1938-12-04 Limerick D 0-058.8 1558 1453 66.63% 22.92% 10.45%+1.23 -4.4 7
1938-12-04 @ Shamrock Rovers D 0-058.8 1453 1558 10.45% 22.92% 66.63%-1.23 +4.4 5
1938-12-04 Drumconda W 1-039.5 1468 1426 62.13% 23.49% 14.38%+0.88 +5.2 5
1938-12-04 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-139.5 1426 1468 14.38% 23.49% 62.13%-0.88 -5.2 4
1938-12-10 Brideville D 2-267.5 1500 1546 53.89% 23.99% 22.13%+0.38 -1.5 7
1938-12-10 @ Bohemian D 2-267.5 1546 1500 22.13% 23.99% 53.89%-0.38 +1.5 6
1938-12-10 Sligo Rovers L 0-249.8 1454 1474 56.59% 23.88% 19.53%+0.53 -30.9 3
1938-12-10 @ Cork City (1st) W 2-049.8 1474 1454 19.53% 23.88% 56.59%-0.53 +30.9 7
1938-12-10 Shelbourne L 0-151.3 1421 1435 57.21% 23.85% 18.94%+0.56 -16.6 4
1938-12-10 @ Drumconda W 1-051.3 1435 1421 18.94% 23.85% 57.21%-0.56 +16.5 7
1938-12-11 Shamrock Rovers L 2-450.4 1333 1554 31.34% 23.82% 44.83%-0.59 -14.6 0
1938-12-11 @ Bray Unknowns W 4-250.4 1554 1333 44.83% 23.82% 31.34%+0.59 +14.6 9
1938-12-11 Waterford W 3-253.5 1458 1506 53.69% 23.99% 22.32%+0.37 +6.8 7
1938-12-11 @ Limerick L 2-353.5 1506 1458 22.32% 23.99% 53.69%-0.37 -6.8 1
1938-12-11 Dundalk L 2-365.1 1488 1522 55.23% 23.94% 20.83%+0.45 -14.3 4
1938-12-11 @ St. James Gate W 3-265.1 1522 1488 20.83% 23.94% 55.23%-0.45 +14.3 5
1938-12-17 Shamrock Rovers L 2-362.6 1451 1569 45.44% 24.11% 30.46%-0.02 -12.0 7
1938-12-17 @ Shelbourne W 3-262.6 1569 1451 30.46% 24.11% 45.44%+0.02 +12.0 11
1938-12-17 Bohemian D 1-160.0 1474 1498 56.14% 23.90% 19.96%+0.50 -2.4 5
1938-12-17 @ St. James Gate D 1-160.0 1498 1474 19.96% 23.90% 56.14%-0.50 +2.4 8
1938-12-18 Bray Unknowns W 2-139.1 1536 1319 72.60% 21.51% 5.89%+1.85 +2.1 7
1938-12-18 @ Dundalk L 1-239.1 1319 1536 5.89% 21.51% 72.60%-1.85 -2.1 0
1938-12-18 Cork City (1st) L 0-150.4 1405 1423 56.77% 23.87% 19.36%+0.54 -16.4 4
1938-12-18 @ Drumconda W 1-050.4 1423 1405 19.36% 23.87% 56.77%-0.54 +16.4 5
1938-12-18 Brideville W 1-047.4 1465 1548 49.69% 24.08% 26.23%+0.18 +8.7 9
1938-12-18 @ Limerick L 0-147.4 1548 1465 26.23% 24.08% 49.69%-0.18 -8.7 6
1938-12-18 Sligo Rovers D 1-161.2 1499 1505 57.99% 23.81% 18.20%+0.61 -2.7 2
1938-12-18 @ Waterford D 1-161.2 1505 1499 18.20% 23.81% 57.99%-0.61 +2.7 8
1938-12-26 St. James Gate W 5-140.1 1507 1471 61.62% 23.54% 14.84%+0.84 +16.1 10
1938-12-26 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-540.1 1471 1507 14.84% 23.54% 61.62%-0.84 -16.1 5
1938-12-27 Limerick W 4-248.6 1501 1473 60.93% 23.60% 15.47%+0.79 +8.2 10
1938-12-27 @ Bohemian L 2-448.6 1473 1501 15.47% 23.60% 60.93%-0.79 -8.2 9
1938-12-27 Waterford D 2-259.7 1317 1496 36.88% 24.00% 39.12%-0.36 +0.1 1
1938-12-27 @ Bray Unknowns D 2-259.7 1496 1317 39.12% 24.00% 36.88%+0.36 -0.1 3
1938-12-27 Shelbourne W 5-244.0 1539 1439 66.28% 22.97% 10.74%+1.20 +8.0 8
1938-12-27 @ Brideville L 2-544.0 1439 1539 10.74% 22.97% 66.28%-1.20 -8.0 7
1938-12-27 Cork City (1st) W 4-140.0 1538 1439 66.23% 22.98% 10.79%+1.19 +9.3 9
1938-12-27 @ Dundalk L 1-440.0 1439 1538 10.79% 22.98% 66.23%-1.19 -9.3 5
1938-12-27 Drumconda W 3-140.5 1581 1388 71.47% 21.85% 6.68%+1.72 +4.1 13
1938-12-27 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-340.5 1388 1581 6.68% 21.85% 71.47%-1.72 -4.1 4
1938-12-31 Waterford W 4-142.5 1431 1496 51.82% 24.04% 24.14%+0.28 +18.8 9
1938-12-31 @ Shelbourne L 1-442.5 1496 1431 24.14% 24.04% 51.82%-0.28 -18.8 3
1939-01-01 Brideville W 2-152.1 1317 1547 30.11% 23.77% 46.12%-0.65 +12.8 3
1939-01-01 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-252.1 1547 1317 46.12% 23.77% 30.11%+0.65 -12.8 8
1939-01-01 Bohemian W 3-038.3 1430 1509 50.17% 24.07% 25.75%+0.20 +23.5 7
1939-01-01 @ Cork City (1st) L 0-338.3 1509 1430 25.75% 24.07% 50.17%-0.20 -23.5 10
1939-01-01 Dundalk D 3-368.0 1384 1547 39.17% 24.04% 36.79%-0.27 -0.1 5
1939-01-01 @ Drumconda D 3-368.0 1547 1384 36.79% 24.04% 39.17%+0.27 +0.1 10
1939-01-01 Shamrock Rovers L 0-158.6 1523 1585 52.21% 24.03% 23.75%+0.30 -15.2 10
1939-01-01 @ Sligo Rovers W 1-058.6 1585 1523 23.75% 24.03% 52.21%-0.30 +15.2 15
1939-01-01 Limerick W 4-140.5 1455 1465 57.59% 23.83% 18.58%+0.59 +15.2 7
1939-01-01 @ St. James Gate L 1-440.5 1465 1455 18.58% 23.83% 57.59%-0.59 -15.2 9
1939-01-07 Bray Unknowns W 3-244.1 1485 1330 69.60% 22.34% 8.06%+1.51 +2.7 12
1939-01-07 @ Bohemian L 2-344.1 1330 1485 8.06% 22.34% 69.60%-1.51 -2.7 3
1939-01-08 Sligo Rovers D 1-162.7 1534 1508 60.82% 23.61% 15.57%+0.79 -3.1 9
1939-01-08 @ Brideville D 1-162.7 1508 1534 15.57% 23.61% 60.82%-0.79 +3.1 11
1939-01-08 Shelbourne W 5-035.1 1547 1450 66.13% 23.00% 10.87%+1.18 +17.9 12
1939-01-08 @ Dundalk L 0-535.1 1450 1547 10.87% 23.00% 66.13%-1.18 -17.9 9
1939-01-08 Drumconda W 3-246.2 1450 1384 63.97% 23.29% 12.74%+1.01 +4.2 11
1939-01-08 @ Limerick L 2-346.2 1384 1450 12.74% 23.29% 63.97%-1.01 -4.2 5
1939-01-08 Cork City (1st) W 3-144.3 1600 1453 69.10% 22.45% 8.45%+1.46 +5.2 17
1939-01-08 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-344.3 1453 1600 8.45% 22.45% 69.10%-1.46 -5.2 7
1939-01-08 St. James Gate W 2-146.2 1477 1471 59.14% 23.73% 17.12%+0.68 +5.8 5
1939-01-08 @ Waterford L 1-246.2 1471 1477 17.12% 23.73% 59.14%-0.68 -5.8 7
1939-01-14 Shamrock Rovers L 1-357.3 1488 1605 45.47% 24.11% 30.42%-0.01 -21.9 12
1939-01-14 @ Bohemian W 3-157.3 1605 1488 30.42% 24.11% 45.47%+0.01 +21.9 19
1939-01-14 Shelbourne W 7-341.7 1465 1432 61.35% 23.56% 15.08%+0.82 +12.6 9
1939-01-14 @ St. James Gate L 3-741.7 1432 1465 15.08% 23.56% 61.35%-0.82 -12.6 9
1939-01-15 Cork City (1st) W 2-145.5 1531 1448 65.17% 23.14% 11.69%+1.10 +4.1 11
1939-01-15 @ Brideville L 1-245.5 1448 1531 11.69% 23.14% 65.17%-1.10 -4.1 7
1939-01-21 Limerick L 0-247.6 1420 1454 55.11% 23.94% 20.95%+0.45 -30.1 9
1939-01-21 @ Shelbourne W 2-047.6 1454 1420 20.95% 23.94% 55.11%-0.45 +30.1 13
1939-01-22 Bray Unknowns W 4-240.6 1444 1327 67.38% 22.79% 9.83%+1.30 +5.4 9
1939-01-22 @ Cork City (1st) L 2-440.6 1327 1444 9.83% 22.79% 67.38%-1.30 -5.4 3
1939-01-22 Waterford W 5-141.7 1565 1483 65.11% 23.15% 11.74%+1.10 +13.0 14
1939-01-22 @ Dundalk L 1-541.7 1483 1565 11.74% 23.15% 65.11%-1.10 -13.0 5
1939-01-22 St. James Gate W 3-143.8 1380 1477 47.91% 24.10% 27.99%+0.09 +15.0 7
1939-01-22 @ Drumconda L 1-343.8 1477 1380 27.99% 24.10% 47.91%-0.09 -15.0 9
1939-01-22 Brideville W 3-041.3 1627 1535 65.76% 23.05% 11.19%+1.15 +11.4 21
1939-01-22 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-341.3 1535 1627 11.19% 23.05% 65.76%-1.15 -11.4 11
1939-01-22 Bohemian W 4-035.1 1511 1466 62.36% 23.47% 14.17%+0.89 +18.5 13
1939-01-22 @ Sligo Rovers L 0-435.1 1466 1511 14.17% 23.47% 62.36%-0.89 -18.5 12
1939-01-28 Waterford L 2-362.0 1448 1470 56.35% 23.89% 19.76%+0.51 -14.6 12
1939-01-28 @ Bohemian W 3-262.0 1470 1448 19.76% 23.89% 56.35%-0.51 +14.6 7
1939-01-29 Limerick W 2-147.9 1322 1484 39.26% 24.05% 36.70%-0.27 +10.7 5
1939-01-29 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-247.9 1484 1322 36.70% 24.05% 39.26%+0.27 -10.7 13
1939-01-29 Drumconda L 2-558.9 1524 1395 68.11% 22.65% 9.24%+1.36 -39.5 11
1939-01-29 @ Brideville W 5-258.9 1395 1524 9.24% 22.65% 68.11%-1.36 +39.5 9
1939-01-29 St. James Gate L 2-555.8 1449 1462 57.28% 23.84% 18.87%+0.57 -33.2 9
1939-01-29 @ Cork City (1st) W 5-255.8 1462 1449 18.87% 23.84% 57.28%-0.57 +33.2 11
1939-01-29 Dundalk W 3-258.6 1639 1578 63.52% 23.34% 13.13%+0.98 +4.3 23
1939-01-29 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-358.6 1578 1639 13.13% 23.34% 63.52%-0.98 -4.3 14
1939-01-29 Shelbourne W 3-247.4 1530 1389 68.75% 22.52% 8.73%+1.42 +3.0 15
1939-01-29 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-347.4 1389 1530 8.73% 22.52% 68.75%-1.42 -3.0 9
1939-02-01 Sligo Rovers W 3-148.2 1332 1533 33.99% 23.92% 42.09%-0.48 +20.5 7
1939-02-01 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-348.2 1533 1332 42.09% 23.92% 33.99%+0.48 -20.5 15
1939-02-04 Cork City (1st) W 2-142.9 1386 1416 55.61% 23.92% 20.47%+0.47 +6.7 11
1939-02-04 @ Shelbourne L 1-242.9 1416 1386 20.47% 23.92% 55.61%-0.47 -6.7 9
1939-02-05 Bohemian W 3-250.6 1574 1433 68.78% 22.52% 8.70%+1.43 +3.0 16
1939-02-05 @ Dundalk L 2-350.6 1433 1574 8.70% 22.52% 68.78%-1.43 -3.0 12
1939-02-05 Bray Unknowns L 1-450.5 1434 1353 65.05% 23.15% 11.79%+1.10 -43.5 9
1939-02-05 @ Drumconda W 4-150.5 1353 1434 11.79% 23.15% 65.05%-1.10 +43.5 9
1939-02-05 Sligo Rovers W 3-038.7 1474 1512 54.70% 23.96% 21.34%+0.42 +20.2 15
1939-02-05 @ Limerick L 0-338.7 1512 1474 21.34% 23.96% 54.70%-0.42 -20.2 15
1939-02-05 Shamrock Rovers W 4-260.2 1496 1643 41.42% 24.08% 34.51%-0.18 +15.8 13
1939-02-05 @ St. James Gate L 2-460.2 1643 1496 34.51% 24.08% 41.42%+0.18 -15.8 23
1939-02-05 Brideville W 1-043.2 1485 1484 58.54% 23.77% 17.69%+0.64 +6.3 9
1939-02-05 @ Waterford L 0-143.2 1484 1485 17.69% 23.77% 58.54%-0.64 -6.3 11
1939-02-18 Drumconda L 2-360.7 1430 1391 61.93% 23.51% 14.56%+0.86 -16.0 12
1939-02-18 @ Bohemian W 3-260.7 1391 1430 14.56% 23.51% 61.93%-0.86 +16.0 11
1939-02-19 Shelbourne D 1-154.5 1396 1393 58.78% 23.76% 17.46%+0.66 -2.8 10
1939-02-19 @ Bray Unknowns D 1-154.5 1393 1396 17.46% 23.76% 58.78%-0.66 +2.8 12
1939-02-19 St. James Gate W 3-146.1 1478 1511 55.26% 23.94% 20.80%+0.45 +11.8 13
1939-02-19 @ Brideville L 1-346.1 1511 1478 20.80% 23.94% 55.26%-0.45 -11.8 13
1939-02-19 Limerick W 2-147.5 1410 1494 49.57% 24.08% 26.35%+0.17 +8.2 11
1939-02-19 @ Cork City (1st) L 1-247.5 1494 1410 26.35% 24.08% 49.57%-0.17 -8.2 15
1939-02-19 Waterford W 5-143.0 1627 1491 68.50% 22.57% 8.92%+1.40 +10.1 25
1939-02-19 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-543.0 1491 1627 8.92% 22.57% 68.50%-1.40 -10.1 9
1939-02-19 Dundalk D 1-163.5 1492 1577 49.47% 24.08% 26.45%+0.16 -1.5 16
1939-02-19 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-163.5 1577 1492 26.45% 24.08% 49.47%-0.16 +1.5 17
1939-02-25 Bohemian W 3-032.5 1396 1414 56.77% 23.87% 19.36%+0.54 +18.6 14
1939-02-25 @ Shelbourne L 0-332.5 1414 1396 19.36% 23.87% 56.77%-0.54 -18.6 12
1939-02-26 Brideville W 3-038.5 1579 1490 65.55% 23.08% 11.37%+1.14 +11.6 19
1939-02-26 @ Dundalk L 0-338.5 1490 1579 11.37% 23.08% 65.55%-1.14 -11.6 13
1939-02-26 Sligo Rovers D 1-157.3 1407 1491 49.60% 24.08% 26.32%+0.17 -1.5 12
1939-02-26 @ Drumconda D 1-157.3 1491 1407 26.32% 24.08% 49.60%-0.17 +1.5 17
1939-02-26 Shamrock Rovers L 0-252.1 1486 1637 40.82% 24.07% 35.11%-0.21 -23.2 15
1939-02-26 @ Limerick W 2-052.1 1637 1486 35.11% 24.07% 40.82%+0.21 +23.2 27
1939-02-26 Bray Unknowns W 3-139.2 1500 1393 66.70% 22.91% 10.40%+1.23 +6.4 15
1939-02-26 @ St. James Gate L 1-339.2 1393 1500 10.40% 22.91% 66.70%-1.23 -6.4 10
1939-02-26 Cork City (1st) D 1-157.6 1481 1418 63.75% 23.32% 12.93%+0.99 -3.5 10
1939-02-26 @ Waterford D 1-157.6 1418 1481 12.93% 23.32% 63.75%-0.99 +3.5 12
1939-03-05 St. James Gate L 0-347.9 1462 1506 54.18% 23.98% 21.84%+0.40 -43.0 15
1939-03-05 @ Limerick W 3-047.9 1506 1462 21.84% 23.98% 54.18%-0.40 +43.0 17
1939-03-11 Bohemian W 3-247.0 1478 1396 65.15% 23.14% 11.71%+1.10 +3.9 15
1939-03-11 @ Brideville L 2-347.0 1396 1478 11.71% 23.14% 65.15%-1.10 -3.9 12
1939-03-11 Drumconda L 3-463.9 1415 1405 59.37% 23.72% 16.91%+0.69 -15.0 14
1939-03-11 @ Shelbourne W 4-363.9 1405 1415 16.91% 23.72% 59.37%-0.69 +15.0 14
1939-03-12 St. James Gate D 1-166.0 1590 1549 62.06% 23.50% 14.45%+0.87 -3.3 20
1939-03-12 @ Dundalk D 1-166.0 1549 1590 14.45% 23.50% 62.06%-0.87 +3.3 18
1939-03-12 Bray Unknowns W 5-350.1 1660 1387 74.94% 20.65% 4.42%+2.17 +2.3 29
1939-03-12 @ Shamrock Rovers L 3-550.1 1387 1660 4.42% 20.65% 74.94%-2.17 -2.3 10
1939-03-12 Cork City (1st) W 4-245.4 1492 1421 64.30% 23.25% 12.45%+1.04 +6.7 19
1939-03-12 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-445.4 1421 1492 12.45% 23.25% 64.30%-1.04 -6.7 12
1939-03-12 Limerick D 1-157.5 1477 1419 63.37% 23.36% 13.27%+0.97 -3.5 11
1939-03-12 @ Waterford D 1-157.5 1419 1477 13.27% 23.36% 63.37%-0.97 +3.5 16
1939-03-17 Drumconda W 3-140.4 1474 1420 63.05% 23.40% 13.55%+0.94 +8.1 13
1939-03-17 @ Waterford L 1-340.4 1420 1474 13.55% 23.40% 63.05%-0.94 -8.1 14
1939-03-18 St. James Gate W 2-044.3 1392 1552 39.58% 24.05% 36.37%-0.26 +21.2 14
1939-03-18 @ Bohemian L 0-244.3 1552 1392 36.37% 24.05% 39.58%+0.26 -21.2 18
1939-03-18 Shelbourne L 0-162.8 1663 1400 74.54% 20.81% 4.65%+2.11 -21.5 29
1939-03-18 @ Shamrock Rovers W 1-062.8 1400 1663 4.65% 20.81% 74.54%-2.11 +21.5 16
1939-03-19 Dundalk W 3-044.4 1385 1587 33.78% 23.91% 42.31%-0.49 +34.6 12
1939-03-19 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-344.4 1587 1385 42.31% 23.91% 33.78%+0.49 -34.6 20
1939-03-19 Limerick D 2-262.6 1482 1423 63.46% 23.35% 13.18%+0.97 -2.6 16
1939-03-19 @ Brideville D 2-262.6 1423 1482 13.18% 23.35% 63.46%-0.97 +2.6 17
1939-03-19 Waterford W 7-140.3 1499 1482 60.01% 23.67% 16.32%+0.73 +25.4 21
1939-03-19 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-740.3 1482 1499 16.32% 23.67% 60.01%-0.73 -25.3 13
1939-03-25 Shamrock Rovers L 1-448.9 1412 1641 30.24% 23.77% 45.98%-0.64 -22.4 14
1939-03-25 @ Drumconda W 4-148.9 1641 1412 45.98% 23.77% 30.24%+0.64 +22.4 31
1939-03-26 Bohemian L 0-247.9 1425 1413 59.65% 23.70% 16.66%+0.71 -32.5 17
1939-03-26 @ Limerick W 2-047.9 1413 1425 16.66% 23.70% 59.65%-0.71 +32.5 16
1939-03-26 Bray Unknowns D 2-261.6 1457 1419 61.76% 23.53% 14.72%+0.85 -2.4 14
1939-03-26 @ Waterford D 2-261.6 1419 1457 14.72% 23.53% 61.76%-0.85 +2.4 13
1939-03-26 Brideville W 4-035.3 1415 1480 51.81% 24.04% 24.14%+0.28 +29.2 14
1939-03-26 @ Cork City (1st) L 0-435.3 1480 1415 24.14% 24.04% 51.81%-0.28 -29.2 16
1939-03-29 Brideville W 1-040.7 1421 1450 55.65% 23.92% 20.43%+0.48 +7.1 18
1939-03-29 @ Shelbourne L 0-140.7 1450 1421 20.43% 23.92% 55.65%-0.48 -7.1 16
1939-04-01 Sligo Rovers W 3-039.9 1531 1524 59.14% 23.73% 17.13%+0.68 +16.8 20
1939-04-01 @ St. James Gate L 0-339.9 1524 1531 17.13% 23.73% 59.14%-0.68 -16.8 21
1939-04-01 Cork City (1st) W 2-144.3 1445 1444 58.66% 23.76% 17.58%+0.65 +5.9 18
1939-04-01 @ Bohemian L 1-244.3 1444 1445 17.58% 23.76% 58.66%-0.65 -5.9 14
1939-04-02 Bray Unknowns D 2-261.2 1443 1422 60.44% 23.64% 15.92%+0.76 -2.3 17
1939-04-02 @ Brideville D 2-261.2 1422 1443 15.92% 23.64% 60.44%-0.76 +2.3 14
1939-04-02 Drumconda D 2-264.2 1552 1390 69.97% 22.25% 7.78%+1.55 -3.3 21
1939-04-02 @ Dundalk D 2-264.2 1390 1552 7.78% 22.25% 69.97%-1.55 +3.3 15
1939-04-02 Sligo Rovers D 3-376.7 1664 1507 69.62% 22.33% 8.05%+1.51 -2.7 32
1939-04-02 @ Shamrock Rovers D 3-376.7 1507 1664 8.05% 22.33% 69.62%-1.51 +2.7 22
1939-04-02 Shelbourne D 2-261.8 1454 1428 60.83% 23.61% 15.57%+0.79 -2.3 15
1939-04-02 @ Waterford D 2-261.8 1428 1454 15.57% 23.61% 60.83%-0.79 +2.3 19
1939-04-08 Dundalk D 2-265.0 1430 1549 45.27% 24.10% 30.62%-0.02 -0.7 20
1939-04-08 @ Shelbourne D 2-265.0 1549 1430 30.62% 24.10% 45.27%+0.02 +0.7 22
1939-04-09 Bohemian W 3-141.9 1424 1451 55.86% 23.91% 20.23%+0.49 +11.5 16
1939-04-09 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-341.9 1451 1424 20.23% 23.91% 55.86%-0.49 -11.5 18
1939-04-09 Limerick D 1-154.4 1393 1393 58.51% 23.77% 17.72%+0.64 -2.7 16
1939-04-09 @ Drumconda D 1-154.4 1393 1393 17.72% 23.77% 58.51%-0.64 +2.7 18
1939-04-09 Brideville W 6-137.9 1510 1441 64.18% 23.27% 12.56%+1.03 +17.0 24
1939-04-09 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-637.9 1441 1510 12.56% 23.27% 64.18%-1.03 -17.0 17
1939-04-09 Waterford W 4-140.9 1548 1452 66.02% 23.01% 10.96%+1.18 +9.5 22
1939-04-09 @ St. James Gate L 1-440.9 1452 1548 10.96% 23.01% 66.02%-1.18 -9.5 15
1939-04-10 Dundalk W 2-151.7 1396 1550 40.49% 24.07% 35.44%-0.22 +10.4 20
1939-04-10 @ Limerick L 1-251.7 1550 1396 35.44% 24.07% 40.49%+0.22 -10.4 22
1939-04-10 Shamrock Rovers L 2-360.9 1438 1661 31.04% 23.81% 45.15%-0.61 -8.9 14
1939-04-10 @ Cork City (1st) W 3-260.9 1661 1438 45.15% 23.81% 31.04%+0.61 +8.9 34
1939-04-15 Waterford D 2-260.2 1390 1443 53.21% 24.01% 22.78%+0.35 -1.5 17
1939-04-15 @ Drumconda D 2-260.2 1443 1390 22.78% 24.01% 53.21%-0.35 +1.5 16
1939-04-15 Bohemian D 2-270.5 1670 1440 73.17% 21.32% 5.51%+1.93 -3.7 35
1939-04-15 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-270.5 1440 1670 5.51% 21.32% 73.17%-1.93 +3.7 19
1939-04-15 St. James Gate W 3-149.3 1430 1557 44.09% 24.10% 31.80%-0.07 +16.6 22
1939-04-15 @ Shelbourne L 1-349.3 1557 1430 31.80% 24.10% 44.09%+0.07 -16.6 22
1939-04-16 Limerick W 4-032.1 1539 1406 68.34% 22.61% 9.05%+1.39 +12.2 24
1939-04-16 @ Dundalk L 0-432.1 1406 1539 9.05% 22.61% 68.34%-1.39 -12.2 20
1939-04-16 Bray Unknowns W 2-144.7 1527 1435 65.75% 23.05% 11.20%+1.15 +3.9 26
1939-04-16 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-244.7 1435 1527 11.20% 23.05% 65.75%-1.15 -4.0 16
1939-04-22 Shamrock Rovers D 3-373.9 1424 1666 28.66% 23.70% 47.64%-0.71 +0.7 18
1939-04-22 @ Brideville D 3-373.9 1666 1424 47.64% 23.70% 28.66%+0.71 -0.7 36
1939-04-22 Drumconda D 3-368.4 1541 1389 69.40% 22.38% 8.22%+1.49 -2.7 23
1939-04-22 @ St. James Gate D 3-368.4 1389 1541 8.22% 22.38% 69.40%-1.49 +2.7 18
1939-04-22 Dundalk L 0-249.4 1444 1552 46.70% 24.10% 29.19%+0.04 -25.9 16
1939-04-22 @ Waterford W 2-049.4 1552 1444 29.19% 24.10% 46.70%-0.04 +25.9 26
1939-04-23 Cork City (1st) W 3-140.6 1432 1429 58.74% 23.76% 17.50%+0.65 +10.2 18
1939-04-23 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-340.6 1429 1432 17.50% 23.76% 58.74%-0.65 -10.2 14
1939-04-26 Sligo Rovers D 2-264.8 1443 1531 49.16% 24.09% 26.75%+0.15 -1.1 20
1939-04-26 @ Bohemian D 2-264.8 1531 1443 26.75% 24.09% 49.16%-0.15 +1.1 27
1939-04-30 Drumconda W 3-246.5 1419 1391 60.93% 23.60% 15.47%+0.79 +5.0 16
1939-04-30 @ Cork City (1st) L 2-346.5 1391 1419 15.47% 23.60% 60.93%-0.79 -5.0 18
1939-04-30 Dundalk D 2-265.8 1424 1577 40.56% 24.07% 35.38%-0.22 -0.2 17
1939-04-30 @ Cork City (1st) D 2-265.8 1577 1424 35.38% 24.07% 40.56%+0.22 +0.2 27
1939-04-30 Shelbourne W 4-246.5 1394 1446 53.21% 24.01% 22.79%+0.35 +11.4 22
1939-04-30 @ Limerick L 2-446.5 1446 1394 22.79% 24.01% 53.21%-0.35 -11.4 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1939-03-18 4.65% Shelbourne 1400 1 @ Shamrock Rovers 1663 0
2 1939-01-29 9.24% Drumconda 1395 5 @ Brideville 1524 2
3 1938-11-13 11.09% Bohemian 1467 7 @ Waterford 1561 4
4 1939-02-05 11.79% Bray Unknowns 1353 4 @ Drumconda 1434 1
5 1939-02-18 14.56% Drumconda 1391 3 @ Bohemian 1430 2
6 1938-11-13 14.69% Shamrock Rovers 1501 2 @ Dundalk 1539 0
7 1939-03-26 16.66% Bohemian 1413 2 @ Limerick 1425 0
8 1939-03-11 16.91% Drumconda 1405 4 @ Shelbourne 1415 3
9 1938-11-19 18.14% Dundalk 1505 2 @ Bohemian 1501 0
10 1939-01-29 18.87% St. James Gate 1462 5 @ Cork City (1st) 1449 2
11 1938-12-10 18.94% Shelbourne 1435 1 @ Drumconda 1421 0
12 1938-11-27 18.97% Shamrock Rovers 1543 2 @ Waterford 1529 1
13 1938-12-18 19.36% Cork City (1st) 1423 1 @ Drumconda 1405 0
14 1938-12-10 19.53% Sligo Rovers 1474 2 @ Cork City (1st) 1454 0
15 1938-11-26 19.60% Brideville 1512 5 @ St. James Gate 1491 3
16 1939-01-28 19.76% Waterford 1470 3 @ Bohemian 1448 2
17 1938-11-27 20.14% Bohemian 1469 1 @ Drumconda 1443 0
18 1938-12-11 20.83% Dundalk 1522 3 @ St. James Gate 1488 2
19 1939-01-21 20.95% Limerick 1454 2 @ Shelbourne 1420 0
20 1939-03-05 21.84% St. James Gate 1506 3 @ Limerick 1462 0
21 1938-11-20 22.98% Drumconda 1427 1 @ Bray Unknowns 1373 0
22 1939-01-01 23.75% Shamrock Rovers 1585 1 @ Sligo Rovers 1523 0
23 1939-04-22 29.19% Dundalk 1552 2 @ Waterford 1444 0
24 1939-01-01 30.11% @ Bray Unknowns 1317 2 Brideville 1547 1
25 1938-12-04 30.21% St. James Gate 1468 4 @ Bray Unknowns 1353 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-02-05 43.50 Bray Unknowns 4 1353 11.79% @ Drumconda 1 1434 65.05% 23.15%
2 1939-03-05 43.03 St. James Gate 3 1506 21.84% @ Limerick 0 1462 54.18% 23.98%
3 1939-01-29 39.47 Drumconda 5 1395 9.24% @ Brideville 2 1524 68.11% 22.65%
4 1939-03-19 34.57 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1385 33.78% Dundalk 0 1587 42.31% 23.91%
5 1938-11-13 34.39 @ Limerick 7 1432 60.67% Bray Unknowns 0 1407 15.71% 23.62%
6 1938-11-13 33.71 Shamrock Rovers 2 1501 14.69% @ Dundalk 0 1539 61.78% 23.52%
7 1938-11-13 33.65 Bohemian 7 1467 11.09% @ Waterford 4 1561 65.88% 23.04%
8 1939-01-29 33.16 St. James Gate 5 1462 18.87% @ Cork City (1st) 2 1449 57.28% 23.84%
9 1939-03-26 32.53 Bohemian 2 1413 16.66% @ Limerick 0 1425 59.65% 23.70%
10 1938-11-19 31.67 Dundalk 2 1505 18.14% @ Bohemian 0 1501 58.06% 23.80%
11 1938-12-10 30.89 Sligo Rovers 2 1474 19.53% @ Cork City (1st) 0 1454 56.59% 23.88%
12 1939-01-21 30.11 Limerick 2 1454 20.95% @ Shelbourne 0 1420 55.11% 23.94%
13 1939-03-26 29.16 @ Cork City (1st) 4 1415 51.81% Brideville 0 1480 24.14% 24.04%
14 1939-04-22 25.91 Dundalk 2 1552 29.19% @ Waterford 0 1444 46.70% 24.10%
15 1939-03-19 25.35 @ Sligo Rovers 7 1499 60.01% Waterford 1 1482 16.32% 23.67%
16 1939-01-01 23.52 @ Cork City (1st) 3 1430 50.17% Bohemian 0 1509 25.75% 24.07%
17 1939-02-26 23.16 Shamrock Rovers 2 1637 35.11% @ Limerick 0 1486 40.82% 24.07%
18 1938-11-26 22.58 Brideville 5 1512 19.60% @ St. James Gate 3 1491 56.52% 23.88%
19 1939-03-25 22.43 Shamrock Rovers 4 1641 45.98% @ Drumconda 1 1412 30.24% 23.77%
20 1939-01-14 21.93 Shamrock Rovers 3 1605 30.42% @ Bohemian 1 1488 45.47% 24.11%
21 1939-03-18 21.47 Shelbourne 1 1400 4.65% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1663 74.54% 20.81%
22 1939-03-18 21.19 @ Bohemian 2 1392 39.58% St. James Gate 0 1552 36.37% 24.05%
23 1939-02-01 20.53 @ Bray Unknowns 3 1332 33.99% Sligo Rovers 1 1533 42.09% 23.92%
24 1939-02-05 20.17 @ Limerick 3 1474 54.70% Sligo Rovers 0 1512 21.34% 23.96%
25 1938-12-04 19.69 St. James Gate 4 1468 30.21% @ Bray Unknowns 2 1353 45.69% 24.11%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-04-02 76.7 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1664 69.62% Sligo Rovers 3 1507 8.05% 22.33%
2 1939-04-22 73.9 @ Brideville 3 1424 28.66% Shamrock Rovers 3 1666 47.64% 23.70%
3 1939-04-15 70.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1670 73.17% Bohemian 2 1440 5.51% 21.32%
4 1939-04-22 68.4 @ St. James Gate 3 1541 69.40% Drumconda 3 1389 8.22% 22.38%
5 1939-01-01 68.0 @ Drumconda 3 1384 39.17% Dundalk 3 1547 36.79% 24.04%
6 1938-12-10 67.5 @ Bohemian 2 1500 53.89% Brideville 2 1546 22.13% 23.99%
7 1938-11-19 67.3 @ Brideville 2 1514 57.26% Waterford 2 1527 18.89% 23.85%
8 1939-03-12 66.0 @ Dundalk 1 1590 62.06% St. James Gate 1 1549 14.45% 23.50%
9 1939-04-30 65.8 @ Cork City (1st) 2 1424 40.56% Dundalk 2 1577 35.38% 24.07%
10 1938-11-13 65.3 Bohemian 7 1467 11.09% @ Waterford 4 1561 65.88% 23.04%
11 1938-12-11 65.1 Dundalk 3 1522 20.83% @ St. James Gate 2 1488 55.23% 23.94%
12 1938-11-26 65.0 Brideville 5 1512 19.60% @ St. James Gate 3 1491 56.52% 23.88%
13 1939-04-08 65.0 @ Shelbourne 2 1430 45.27% Dundalk 2 1549 30.62% 24.10%
14 1939-04-26 64.8 @ Bohemian 2 1443 49.16% Sligo Rovers 2 1531 26.75% 24.09%
15 1939-04-02 64.2 @ Dundalk 2 1552 69.97% Drumconda 2 1390 7.78% 22.25%
16 1939-03-11 63.9 Drumconda 4 1405 16.91% @ Shelbourne 3 1415 59.37% 23.72%
17 1939-02-19 63.5 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1492 49.47% Dundalk 1 1577 26.45% 24.08%
18 1938-11-27 62.8 Shamrock Rovers 2 1543 18.97% @ Waterford 1 1529 57.18% 23.85%
19 1939-03-18 62.8 Shelbourne 1 1400 4.65% @ Shamrock Rovers 0 1663 74.54% 20.81%
20 1939-01-08 62.7 @ Brideville 1 1534 60.82% Sligo Rovers 1 1508 15.57% 23.61%
21 1938-12-17 62.6 Shamrock Rovers 3 1569 30.46% @ Shelbourne 2 1451 45.44% 24.11%
22 1939-03-19 62.6 @ Brideville 2 1482 63.46% Limerick 2 1423 13.18% 23.35%
23 1938-11-20 62.2 @ Cork City (1st) 2 1455 59.54% Shelbourne 2 1443 16.76% 23.71%
24 1939-01-28 62.0 Waterford 3 1470 19.76% @ Bohemian 2 1448 56.35% 23.89%
25 1939-04-02 61.8 @ Waterford 2 1454 60.83% Shelbourne 2 1428 15.57% 23.61%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-04-16 32.1 @ Dundalk 4 1539 68.34% Limerick 0 1406 9.05% 22.61%
2 1939-02-25 32.5 @ Shelbourne 3 1396 56.77% Bohemian 0 1414 19.36% 23.87%
3 1938-11-13 33.6 @ Limerick 7 1432 60.67% Bray Unknowns 0 1407 15.71% 23.62%
4 1938-12-03 34.8 @ Bohemian 3 1485 61.60% Shelbourne 0 1450 14.86% 23.54%
5 1939-01-08 35.1 @ Dundalk 5 1547 66.13% Shelbourne 0 1450 10.87% 23.00%
6 1939-01-22 35.1 @ Sligo Rovers 4 1511 62.36% Bohemian 0 1466 14.17% 23.47%
7 1939-03-26 35.3 @ Cork City (1st) 4 1415 51.81% Brideville 0 1480 24.14% 24.04%
8 1938-11-20 35.5 @ Sligo Rovers 3 1446 56.61% Limerick 0 1466 19.51% 23.88%
9 1938-11-26 35.9 @ Shelbourne 1 1445 65.50% Bray Unknowns 0 1357 11.41% 23.09%
10 1939-04-09 37.9 @ Sligo Rovers 6 1510 64.18% Brideville 1 1441 12.56% 23.27%
11 1939-01-01 38.3 @ Cork City (1st) 3 1430 50.17% Bohemian 0 1509 25.75% 24.07%
12 1939-02-26 38.5 @ Dundalk 3 1579 65.55% Brideville 0 1490 11.37% 23.08%
13 1939-02-05 38.7 @ Limerick 3 1474 54.70% Sligo Rovers 0 1512 21.34% 23.96%
14 1938-12-18 39.1 @ Dundalk 2 1536 72.60% Bray Unknowns 1 1319 5.89% 21.51%
15 1939-02-26 39.2 @ St. James Gate 3 1500 66.70% Bray Unknowns 1 1393 10.40% 22.91%
16 1938-12-04 39.5 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1468 62.13% Drumconda 0 1426 14.38% 23.49%
17 1938-11-13 39.9 @ St. James Gate 5 1481 59.25% Cork City (1st) 1 1473 17.03% 23.73%
18 1939-04-01 39.9 @ St. James Gate 3 1531 59.14% Sligo Rovers 0 1524 17.13% 23.73%
19 1938-12-27 40.0 @ Dundalk 4 1538 66.23% Cork City (1st) 1 1439 10.79% 22.98%
20 1938-12-26 40.1 @ Sligo Rovers 5 1507 61.62% St. James Gate 1 1471 14.84% 23.54%
21 1939-03-19 40.3 @ Sligo Rovers 7 1499 60.01% Waterford 1 1482 16.32% 23.67%
22 1939-03-17 40.4 @ Waterford 3 1474 63.05% Drumconda 1 1420 13.55% 23.40%
23 1938-12-27 40.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 3 1581 71.47% Drumconda 1 1388 6.68% 21.85%
24 1939-01-01 40.5 @ St. James Gate 4 1455 57.59% Limerick 1 1465 18.58% 23.83%
25 1939-01-22 40.6 @ Cork City (1st) 4 1444 67.38% Bray Unknowns 2 1327 9.83% 22.79%