Home / Leagues / Ireland / League of Ireland / 1939-40
‹ ›

1939-40 League of Ireland Season

132 games

Final

Champion

St. James Gate

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

St. James Gate

6.86 points above expected

36 points · 29.14 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Limerick

7.04 points below expected

7 points · 14.04 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 St. James Gate 22 17 2 3 36 63 27 +36 29.14 +6.86
2 Shamrock Rovers 22 13 4 5 30 51 39 +12 27.11 +2.89
3 Sligo Rovers 22 12 4 6 28 60 44 +16 25.35 +2.65
4 Dundalk 22 11 3 8 25 45 36 +9 27.65 -2.65
5 Drumconda 22 10 5 7 25 49 45 +4 21.64 +3.36
6 Shelbourne 22 6 8 8 20 41 39 +2 18.94 +1.06
7 Bohemian 22 7 4 11 18 36 46 -10 19.59 -1.59
8 Bray Unknowns 22 8 1 13 17 49 52 -3 20.03 -3.03
9 Brideville 22 6 5 11 17 39 49 -10 19.50 -2.50
10 Waterford 22 6 4 12 16 44 54 -10 20.52 -4.52
11 Cork United 10 6 1 3 13 22 11 +11 9.52 +3.48
12 Cork City (1st) 12 5 2 5 12 18 23 -5 10.97 +1.03
13 Limerick 22 1 5 16 7 23 75 -52 14.04 -7.04

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 St. James Gate 36 29.14 +6.86
2 Cork United 13 9.52 +3.48
3 Drumconda 25 21.64 +3.36
4 Shamrock Rovers 30 27.11 +2.89
5 Sligo Rovers 28 25.35 +2.65

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Limerick 7 14.04 -7.04
2 Waterford 16 20.52 -4.52
3 Bray Unknowns 17 20.03 -3.03
4 Dundalk 25 27.65 -2.65
5 Brideville 17 19.50 -2.50

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cork United 4 Mar 2 – Mar 18 1 in 43
2 Bohemian 3 Nov 25 – Dec 9 1 in 22
3 Shamrock Rovers 5 Mar 3 – Apr 7 1 in 15
4 Dundalk 4 Dec 24 – Jan 14 1 in 10
5 Sligo Rovers 4 Dec 17 – Jan 7 1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Limerick 7 Nov 25 – Jan 7 1 in 172
2 Bohemian 6 Dec 16 – Jan 28 1 in 43
3 Shelbourne 3 Nov 25 – Dec 9 1 in 26
4 Dundalk 3 Apr 7 – Apr 28 1 in 19
5 Sligo Rovers 3 Mar 18 – Apr 6 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 6 Mar 16 – Apr 20 1 in 46
2 Shamrock Rovers 10 Jan 28 – Apr 14 1 in 34
3 St. James Gate 8 Nov 12 – Dec 31 1 in 16
4 Limerick 3 Jan 28 – Feb 18 1 in 16
5 Cork United 4 Mar 2 – Mar 18 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Limerick 20 Nov 25 – Apr 21 1 in 128
2 Brideville 9 Dec 30 – Mar 9 1 in 64
3 Waterford 9 Jan 28 – Apr 6 1 in 57
4 Drumconda 4 Mar 23 – Apr 14 1 in 15
5 Dundalk 4 Jan 21 – Feb 18 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
St. James Gate 1807 36 +37 10 7.7 +2.3
Shamrock Rovers 1699 30 +5 7 6.6 +0.4
Sligo Rovers 1630 28 -12 6 5.9 +0.1
Drumconda 1588 25 -8 5 5.3 -0.3
Dundalk 1617 25 -34 4 6.3 -2.3
Shelbourne 1549 20 +45 8 5.2 +2.8
Bohemian 1514 18 +25 4 4.0 -0.0
Bray Unknowns 1505 17 +33 6 4.5 +1.5
Brideville 1490 17 -14 3 3.8 -0.8
Waterford 1459 16 -26 3 3.6 -0.6
Cork United 1594 13 +10 5 5.3 -0.3
Cork City (1st) 1528 12 +41 7 5.2 +1.8
Limerick 1279 7 -31 1 2.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BOH BU BRI CC( CU DRU DUN LIM SR SHE SR SJG WAT
Bohemian —
1-0-1
2.83
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.75
0-0-0
0.00
0-1-1
2.47
0-0-2
1.80
1-1-0
3.56
0-0-2
2.12
1-1-0
2.98
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.22
1-0-1
2.93
Bray Unknowns
1-0-1
2.78
 —
0-0-2
3.00
1-0-0
1.92
0-0-1
0.93
1-0-1
2.27
0-1-1
1.88
2-0-0
4.09
0-0-2
1.61
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
1.87
0-0-2
1.93
1-0-1
2.62
Brideville
0-1-1
2.65
2-0-0
2.62
 —
1-0-0
0.82
0-0-1
1.82
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
1.72
0-1-1
3.24
1-0-1
1.72
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
2.27
0-0-2
1.55
0-1-1
2.86
Cork City (1st)
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-1
0.89
0-0-1
1.99
 —
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
0.61
1-0-0
0.50
0-1-0
1.66
0-0-1
1.19
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
0.79
0-0-1
1.33
1-0-0
1.80
Cork United
0-0-0
0.00
1-0-0
1.88
1-0-0
0.99
0-0-0
0.00
 —
0-1-0
1.92
1-0-0
1.30
1-0-0
2.49
0-0-1
0.67
0-0-1
1.20
1-0-0
1.45
0-0-1
0.49
1-0-0
1.22
Drumconda
1-1-0
3.14
1-0-1
3.34
1-1-0
3.06
0-0-1
2.20
0-1-0
0.89
 —
1-0-1
2.26
1-1-0
3.92
2-0-0
2.00
2-0-0
3.10
0-0-2
2.36
0-1-1
1.93
1-0-1
3.00
Dundalk
2-0-0
3.83
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.90
0-0-1
2.32
0-0-1
1.51
1-0-1
3.36
 —
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
2.93
1-1-0
3.84
0-0-2
3.10
1-0-1
2.50
1-1-0
3.74
Limerick
0-1-1
2.05
0-0-2
1.53
1-1-0
2.38
0-1-0
1.15
0-0-1
0.33
0-1-1
1.71
0-0-2
1.31
 —
0-0-2
1.72
0-0-2
1.87
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
1.63
0-1-1
1.80
Shamrock Rovers
2-0-0
3.51
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
3.91
1-0-0
1.62
1-0-0
2.15
0-0-2
3.62
1-0-1
2.68
2-0-0
3.92
 —
0-2-0
3.99
0-2-0
2.98
1-0-1
2.64
2-0-0
3.49
Shelbourne
0-1-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.95
0-0-1
0.89
1-0-0
1.61
0-0-2
2.52
0-1-1
1.78
2-0-0
3.76
0-2-0
1.64
 —
0-1-1
2.16
1-1-0
1.23
1-1-0
2.52
Sligo Rovers
1-0-1
3.74
1-0-1
3.75
2-0-0
3.35
0-1-0
2.02
0-0-1
1.36
2-0-0
3.25
2-0-0
2.52
2-0-0
4.42
0-2-0
2.63
1-1-0
3.46
 —
0-0-2
2.37
1-0-1
3.61
St. James Gate
2-0-0
4.41
2-0-0
3.69
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-0
1.47
1-0-0
2.32
1-1-0
3.69
1-0-1
3.12
2-0-0
4.01
1-0-1
2.98
0-1-1
4.40
2-0-0
3.25
 —
2-0-0
4.29
Waterford
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.00
1-1-0
2.75
0-0-1
1.00
0-0-1
1.59
1-0-1
2.62
0-1-1
1.88
1-1-0
3.82
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
3.10
1-0-1
2.00
0-0-2
1.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +5.1
Allowed 0.08 -1.4
Differential 0.68 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.52%4.17%2.65%2.65%1.14%1.14%13.26%
14.17%9.09%4.92%6.44%2.65%1.52%28.79%
22.65%4.92%5.30%5.68%3.03%3.41%25.00%
32.65%6.44%5.68%1.52%0.76%0.76%17.80%
41.14%2.65%3.03%0.76%0.76%—8.33%
5+1.14%1.52%3.41%0.76%——6.82%
Total13.26%28.79%25.00%17.80%8.33%6.82%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 2.05 +0.00
SD 1.54 1.54 2.31
CV 0.75 0.75 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%———18.18%
14.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
2—4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
34.55%13.64%——4.55%—22.73%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.09 -0.45
SD 1.18 1.72 2.06
CV 0.72 0.82 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%——4.55%13.64%
14.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%36.36%
2———9.09%9.09%—18.18%
3—9.09%————9.09%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%—9.09%———13.64%
Total13.64%13.64%27.27%22.73%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.36 -0.14
SD 2.02 1.50 2.98
CV 0.91 0.63 —
Max 7 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
1—4.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%—36.36%
2——9.09%—4.55%—13.64%
3—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total4.55%22.73%36.36%18.18%18.18%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.77 2.23 -0.45
SD 1.45 1.15 1.92
CV 0.82 0.52 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%——8.33%——16.67%
18.33%8.33%8.33%8.33%——33.33%
28.33%16.67%——8.33%8.33%41.67%
3———————
4—8.33%————8.33%
5+———————
Total25.00%33.33%8.33%16.67%8.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.92 -0.42
SD 1.09 2.07 2.27
CV 0.72 1.08 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 12

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—20.00%————20.00%
1—10.00%————10.00%
210.00%10.00%—10.00%——30.00%
310.00%10.00%————20.00%
4—10.00%————10.00%
5+——10.00%———10.00%
Total20.00%60.00%10.00%10.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.20 1.10 +1.10
SD 1.62 0.88 1.73
CV 0.74 0.80 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 10

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
19.09%13.64%—4.55%——27.27%
24.55%————9.09%13.64%
3—13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%36.36%
4——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total18.18%31.82%18.18%9.09%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.05 +0.18
SD 1.34 1.79 2.04
CV 0.60 0.87 —
Max 5 6 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
19.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%——31.82%
24.55%—4.55%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
34.55%4.55%13.64%———22.73%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total22.73%22.73%31.82%18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.64 +0.41
SD 1.33 1.29 1.94
CV 0.65 0.79 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%9.09%13.64%—9.09%36.36%
1—13.64%—4.55%9.09%9.09%36.36%
2——4.55%—9.09%—13.64%
3—4.55%—4.55%—4.55%13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total—22.73%13.64%22.73%18.18%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 3.41 -2.36
SD 1.05 2.20 2.44
CV 1.00 0.64 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
1—9.09%————9.09%
24.55%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
34.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
4—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%45.45%22.73%9.09%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.32 1.77 +0.55
SD 1.25 1.31 1.90
CV 0.54 0.74 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%————9.09%
19.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%40.91%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total13.64%36.36%22.73%18.18%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 1.77 +0.09
SD 1.64 1.31 1.97
CV 0.88 0.74 —
Max 8 5 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—————4.55%
1—9.09%—13.64%4.55%—27.27%
2—9.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
3—9.09%9.09%———18.18%
4—4.55%9.09%———13.64%
5+—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
Total4.55%36.36%27.27%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 2.00 +0.73
SD 2.05 1.20 2.51
CV 0.75 0.60 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%————4.55%
19.09%4.55%4.55%———18.18%
2—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
313.64%4.55%18.18%———36.36%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
Total31.82%22.73%36.36%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.23 +1.64
SD 1.55 1.02 1.76
CV 0.54 0.83 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
1—4.55%13.64%9.09%4.55%—31.82%
24.55%—13.64%13.64%—4.55%36.36%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———9.09%——9.09%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total4.55%13.64%31.82%36.36%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.45 -0.45
SD 1.41 1.14 2.04
CV 0.71 0.47 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
St. James Gate 1807 36 29.14 +6.86 98.0% 22 24 27 29 31 35 39
Shamrock Rovers 1699 30 27.11 +2.89 80.0% 19 20 24 28 30 33 35
Sligo Rovers 1630 28 25.35 +2.65 83.0% 18 19 23 26 27 32 34
Dundalk 1617 25 27.65 -2.65 25.0% 18 21 25 28 30 33 35
Cork United 1594 13 9.52 +3.48 97.0% 4 6 8 10 11 13 14
Drumconda 1588 25 21.64 +3.36 83.0% 12 14 19 22 24 28 29
Shelbourne 1549 20 18.94 +1.06 68.0% 11 13 16 19 21 24 32
Cork City (1st) 1528 12 10.97 +1.03 69.0% 5 6 9 11 13 16 22
Bohemian 1514 18 19.59 -1.59 39.0% 10 13 17 20 22 26 30
Bray Unknowns 1505 17 20.03 -3.03 24.0% 11 13 18 20 22 26 27
Brideville 1490 17 19.50 -2.50 29.0% 9 12 17 20 22 25 29
Waterford 1459 16 20.52 -4.52 18.0% 14 15 17 20 24 27 32
Limerick 1279 7 14.04 -7.04 1.0% 7 9 11 14 16 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 8.5% * Slight Edge: 8.5% to 12.5% * Clear Edge: 12.5% to 19% * Strong Edge: 19% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+22.73%
Strong Edge
52.27%18.18%29.55%
Elo Value
Home Edge
153 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
080.37400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.62 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 7th * Longshot: 8th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.13 * Comfortable: 0.13 to 0.22 * Runaway: 0.22 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.6
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
42%
St. James Gate, 1st of 13
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.30/gm
Runaway
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.88 * Some Luck: 2.88 to 4.33 * Lucky: 4.33 to 5.77 * Wild Swing: 5.77 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.27 * Close: 1.27 to 1.9 * Off: 1.9 to 2.53 * Way Off: 2.53 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 13 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 13 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 13 * As Expected: 13 to 20.8 * Several Outliers: 20.8 to 28.6 * Many Outliers: 28.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.75 points
Some Luck
03.619
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.38
Close
01.584
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.15%
98.00%
St. James Gate
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.85%
1.00%
Limerick
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 13
Minimal Outliers
01.36

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.16 * Even: 0.16 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.2 * Lopsided: 0.2 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.95 * Strong Separation: 1.95 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 68% * Slight Edge: 68% to 72.5% * Clear Edge: 72.5% to 76.5% * Wide Edge: 76.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 87.5% * Clear Edge: 87.5% to 91.5% * Strong Edge: 91.5% to 95% * Dominant: 95% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 50.5% * Some Drama: 50.5% to 59% * Frequent: 59% to 65% * Very Frequent: 65% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 14.5% * Occasional: 14.5% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Lopsided
00.160.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 125.94
2.00
Strong Separation
11.71.952.22.75
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%68%76.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 93%
95%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
49%
Few
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
25%
Very Frequent
0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.41 * Notable Separation: 0.41 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.56 * Strong Carryover: 0.56 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 20.5% * As Expected: 20.5% to 23% * Upset-Prone: 23% to 26.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 26.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 17% * As Expected: 17% to 20% * Shaky Favorites: 20% to 23% * Very Shaky: 23% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.55
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Notable Separation
00.370.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.24
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.67
Strong Carryover
00.360.560.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
Solid Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.
Probability calibration
0.96
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.19
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.090
Well Within Noise
00.1320.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213
St. James Gate42.00%27.00%19.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%———————
Shamrock Rovers18.00%29.00%15.00%17.00%4.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%————
Sligo Rovers8.00%10.00%22.00%28.00%11.00%10.00%4.00%5.00%2.00%————
Dundalk25.00%26.00%18.00%12.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%—1.00%————
Drumconda3.00%1.00%12.00%7.00%17.00%16.00%13.00%11.00%11.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%—
Shelbourne1.00%1.00%1.00%2.00%10.00%12.00%13.00%20.00%13.00%17.00%6.00%4.00%—
Bohemian2.00%—3.00%5.00%8.00%16.00%14.00%11.00%17.00%16.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%
Bray Unknowns—1.00%5.00%5.00%16.00%10.00%18.00%11.00%17.00%11.00%5.00%1.00%—
Brideville—1.00%1.00%6.00%10.00%9.00%19.00%17.00%17.00%9.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%
Waterford1.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%9.00%17.00%15.00%17.00%3.00%——
Cork United—————————1.00%12.00%35.00%52.00%
Cork City (1st)—————1.00%1.00%——8.00%19.00%37.00%34.00%
Limerick———1.00%—1.00%1.00%6.00%6.00%16.00%42.00%17.00%10.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Bohemian 100%
Bray Unknowns 100%
Brideville 100%
Cork City (1st) 100%
Cork United 100%
Drumconda 100%
Dundalk 100%
Limerick 100%
Shamrock Rovers 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Sligo Rovers 100%
St. James Gate 100%
Waterford 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1939-11-11 Cork City (1st) W 4-254.3 1547 1540 56.88% 19.19% 23.94%+0.58 +11.7 2
1939-11-11 @ Bohemian L 2-454.3 1540 1547 23.94% 19.19% 56.88%-0.58 -11.7 0
1939-11-11 Drumconda L 1-358.9 1538 1521 57.85% 19.17% 22.98%+0.64 -27.9 0
1939-11-11 @ Brideville W 3-158.9 1521 1538 22.98% 19.17% 57.85%-0.64 +27.9 2
1939-11-11 Shelbourne W 3-257.2 1617 1539 63.82% 18.98% 17.20%+1.04 +5.4 2
1939-11-11 @ Dundalk L 2-357.2 1539 1617 17.20% 18.98% 63.82%-1.04 -5.4 0
1939-11-12 Shamrock Rovers D 1-169.9 1594 1657 48.37% 19.28% 32.35%+0.12 -1.1 1
1939-11-12 @ Sligo Rovers D 1-169.9 1657 1594 32.35% 19.28% 48.37%-0.12 +1.1 1
1939-11-12 Bray Unknowns W 3-257.7 1597 1548 61.11% 19.08% 19.81%+0.85 +6.1 2
1939-11-12 @ St. James Gate L 2-357.7 1548 1597 19.81% 19.08% 61.11%-0.85 -6.1 0
1939-11-12 Limerick W 2-044.3 1532 1526 56.68% 19.19% 24.13%+0.57 +15.2 2
1939-11-12 @ Waterford L 0-244.3 1526 1532 24.13% 19.19% 56.68%-0.57 -15.2 0
1939-11-18 Sligo Rovers D 1-167.0 1534 1593 48.80% 19.28% 31.92%+0.14 -1.1 1
1939-11-18 @ Shelbourne D 1-167.0 1593 1534 31.92% 19.28% 48.80%-0.14 +1.1 2
1939-11-19 Bohemian W 6-250.3 1542 1559 54.08% 19.23% 26.69%+0.42 +22.3 2
1939-11-19 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-650.3 1559 1542 26.69% 19.23% 54.08%-0.42 -22.3 2
1939-11-19 Waterford W 4-147.9 1528 1548 53.74% 19.24% 27.02%+0.40 +20.6 2
1939-11-19 @ Cork City (1st) L 1-447.9 1548 1528 27.02% 19.24% 53.74%-0.40 -20.6 2
1939-11-19 Dundalk L 2-560.7 1549 1623 46.82% 19.28% 33.89%+0.04 -28.1 2
1939-11-19 @ Drumconda W 5-260.7 1623 1549 33.89% 19.28% 46.82%-0.04 +28.1 4
1939-11-19 Brideville W 3-147.5 1511 1510 56.18% 19.20% 24.62%+0.54 +13.4 2
1939-11-19 @ Limerick L 1-347.5 1510 1511 24.62% 19.20% 56.18%-0.54 -13.4 0
1939-11-19 St. James Gate L 2-567.0 1658 1603 61.67% 19.06% 19.27%+0.88 -36.4 1
1939-11-19 @ Shamrock Rovers W 5-267.0 1603 1658 19.27% 19.06% 61.67%-0.88 +36.4 4
1939-11-25 Limerick W 3-148.7 1537 1525 57.37% 19.18% 23.45%+0.61 +12.9 4
1939-11-25 @ Bohemian L 1-348.7 1525 1537 23.45% 19.18% 57.37%-0.61 -12.9 2
1939-11-25 Shelbourne W 5-250.8 1496 1533 51.68% 19.26% 29.06%+0.29 +19.0 2
1939-11-25 @ Brideville L 2-550.8 1533 1496 29.06% 19.26% 51.68%-0.29 -19.0 1
1939-11-26 Shamrock Rovers W 4-045.1 1651 1621 59.20% 19.14% 21.66%+0.72 +26.3 6
1939-11-26 @ Dundalk L 0-445.1 1621 1651 21.66% 19.14% 59.20%-0.72 -26.3 1
1939-11-26 Cork City (1st) D 0-064.6 1594 1548 60.83% 19.09% 20.09%+0.83 -3.2 3
1939-11-26 @ Sligo Rovers D 0-064.6 1548 1594 20.09% 19.09% 60.83%-0.83 +3.2 3
1939-11-26 Drumconda D 1-168.1 1640 1521 67.13% 18.81% 14.07%+1.31 -3.8 5
1939-11-26 @ St. James Gate D 1-168.1 1521 1640 14.07% 18.81% 67.13%-1.31 +3.8 3
1939-11-26 Bray Unknowns W 5-147.6 1527 1565 51.56% 19.26% 29.18%+0.28 +28.3 4
1939-11-26 @ Waterford L 1-547.6 1565 1527 29.18% 19.26% 51.56%-0.28 -28.3 2
1939-12-02 Bohemian L 0-156.1 1514 1550 51.78% 19.26% 28.97%+0.29 -15.4 1
1939-12-02 @ Shelbourne W 1-056.1 1550 1514 28.97% 19.26% 51.78%-0.29 +15.4 6
1939-12-03 Dundalk D 1-169.2 1536 1677 37.46% 19.24% 43.30%-0.40 +0.4 3
1939-12-03 @ Bray Unknowns D 1-169.2 1677 1536 43.30% 19.24% 37.46%+0.40 -0.4 7
1939-12-03 Brideville L 1-359.8 1552 1515 59.91% 19.12% 20.97%+0.77 -28.9 3
1939-12-03 @ Cork City (1st) W 3-159.8 1515 1552 20.97% 19.12% 59.91%-0.77 +28.9 4
1939-12-03 Sligo Rovers L 3-565.5 1524 1591 47.82% 19.28% 32.90%+0.09 -19.8 3
1939-12-03 @ Drumconda W 5-365.5 1591 1524 32.90% 19.28% 47.82%-0.09 +19.8 5
1939-12-03 St. James Gate L 2-461.0 1512 1636 39.86% 19.26% 40.88%-0.29 -18.0 2
1939-12-03 @ Limerick W 4-261.0 1636 1512 40.88% 19.26% 39.86%+0.29 +18.0 7
1939-12-03 Waterford W 5-252.3 1595 1555 60.23% 19.11% 20.67%+0.79 +14.1 3
1939-12-03 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-552.3 1555 1595 20.67% 19.11% 60.23%-0.79 -14.1 4
1939-12-09 Bohemian L 1-261.9 1544 1565 53.57% 19.24% 27.19%+0.39 -15.0 4
1939-12-09 @ Brideville W 2-161.9 1565 1544 27.19% 19.24% 53.57%-0.39 +15.0 8
1939-12-09 Drumconda L 1-356.1 1498 1505 55.32% 19.21% 25.47%+0.49 -26.7 1
1939-12-09 @ Shelbourne W 3-156.1 1505 1498 25.47% 19.21% 55.32%-0.49 +26.7 5
1939-12-10 Cork City (1st) W 7-246.3 1537 1523 57.54% 19.17% 23.29%+0.62 +24.0 5
1939-12-10 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-746.3 1523 1537 23.29% 19.17% 57.54%-0.62 -24.0 3
1939-12-10 Shamrock Rovers L 0-348.3 1494 1609 41.10% 19.27% 39.64%-0.23 -34.5 2
1939-12-10 @ Limerick W 3-048.3 1609 1494 39.64% 19.27% 41.10%+0.23 +34.5 5
1939-12-10 Sligo Rovers W 3-260.5 1654 1611 60.54% 19.10% 20.36%+0.81 +6.2 9
1939-12-10 @ St. James Gate L 2-360.5 1611 1654 20.36% 19.10% 60.54%-0.81 -6.2 5
1939-12-10 Dundalk D 2-273.8 1541 1677 38.21% 19.24% 42.54%-0.36 +0.2 5
1939-12-10 @ Waterford D 2-273.8 1677 1541 42.54% 19.24% 38.21%+0.36 -0.2 8
1939-12-16 Shamrock Rovers L 1-458.4 1580 1644 48.23% 19.28% 32.50%+0.11 -33.3 8
1939-12-16 @ Bohemian W 4-158.4 1644 1580 32.50% 19.28% 48.23%-0.11 +33.3 7
1939-12-16 Shelbourne D 2-271.9 1660 1472 71.67% 18.43% 9.90%+1.76 -3.4 10
1939-12-16 @ St. James Gate D 2-271.9 1472 1660 9.90% 18.43% 71.67%-1.76 +3.4 2
1939-12-17 Bray Unknowns W 4-148.8 1529 1561 52.31% 19.25% 28.44%+0.32 +21.5 6
1939-12-17 @ Brideville L 1-448.8 1561 1529 28.44% 19.25% 52.31%-0.32 -21.5 5
1939-12-17 Cork City (1st) L 0-165.1 1677 1499 71.07% 18.49% 10.44%+1.69 -21.1 8
1939-12-17 @ Dundalk W 1-065.1 1499 1677 10.44% 18.49% 71.07%-1.69 +21.1 5
1939-12-17 Limerick W 9-141.0 1605 1459 69.00% 18.67% 12.32%+1.48 +25.0 7
1939-12-17 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-941.0 1459 1605 12.32% 18.67% 69.00%-1.48 -25.0 2
1939-12-17 Drumconda W 4-360.5 1541 1531 57.13% 19.18% 23.68%+0.59 +6.9 7
1939-12-17 @ Waterford L 3-460.5 1531 1541 23.68% 19.18% 57.13%-0.59 -7.0 5
1939-12-23 Bohemian W 2-045.7 1524 1547 53.42% 19.24% 27.34%+0.38 +17.0 7
1939-12-23 @ Drumconda L 0-245.7 1547 1524 27.34% 19.24% 53.42%-0.38 -17.0 8
1939-12-23 Waterford W 2-153.0 1475 1548 46.95% 19.28% 33.77%+0.05 +10.1 4
1939-12-23 @ Shelbourne L 1-253.0 1548 1475 33.77% 19.28% 46.95%-0.05 -10.1 7
1939-12-24 St. James Gate L 0-349.5 1520 1657 38.08% 19.24% 42.67%-0.37 -32.4 5
1939-12-24 @ Cork City (1st) W 3-049.5 1657 1520 42.67% 19.24% 38.08%+0.37 +32.4 12
1939-12-24 Dundalk L 0-343.6 1434 1656 27.11% 19.04% 53.85%-0.92 -24.4 2
1939-12-24 @ Limerick W 3-043.6 1656 1434 53.85% 19.04% 27.11%+0.92 +24.4 10
1939-12-24 Brideville L 2-373.9 1677 1551 67.67% 18.77% 13.56%+1.36 -17.9 7
1939-12-24 @ Shamrock Rovers W 3-273.9 1551 1677 13.56% 18.77% 67.67%-1.36 +17.9 8
1939-12-24 Bray Unknowns W 2-152.4 1630 1539 64.87% 18.93% 16.20%+1.12 +5.4 9
1939-12-24 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-252.4 1539 1630 16.20% 18.93% 64.87%-1.12 -5.4 5
1939-12-30 Dundalk L 1-356.8 1530 1680 36.18% 19.22% 44.59%-0.46 -18.5 8
1939-12-30 @ Bohemian W 3-156.8 1680 1530 44.59% 19.22% 36.18%+0.46 +18.5 12
1939-12-30 Sligo Rovers L 1-457.9 1568 1635 47.84% 19.28% 32.88%+0.09 -33.1 8
1939-12-30 @ Brideville W 4-157.9 1635 1568 32.88% 19.28% 47.84%-0.09 +33.1 11
1939-12-31 Shelbourne W 4-250.6 1534 1485 61.09% 19.08% 19.83%+0.84 +10.0 7
1939-12-31 @ Bray Unknowns L 2-450.6 1485 1534 19.83% 19.08% 61.09%-0.84 -10.0 4
1939-12-31 Shamrock Rovers L 1-257.0 1487 1659 33.31% 19.18% 47.51%-0.60 -10.0 5
1939-12-31 @ Cork City (1st) W 2-157.0 1659 1487 47.51% 19.18% 33.31%+0.60 +10.0 9
1939-12-31 Drumconda L 0-540.8 1410 1541 38.80% 19.25% 41.95%-0.34 -53.0 2
1939-12-31 @ Limerick W 5-040.8 1541 1410 41.95% 19.25% 38.80%+0.34 +53.0 9
1939-12-31 Waterford W 2-152.3 1689 1538 69.36% 18.65% 11.99%+1.51 +4.1 14
1939-12-31 @ St. James Gate L 1-252.3 1538 1689 11.99% 18.65% 69.36%-1.51 -4.1 7
1940-01-07 St. James Gate W 3-263.0 1699 1693 56.64% 19.19% 24.17%+0.56 +7.2 14
1940-01-07 @ Dundalk L 2-363.0 1693 1699 24.17% 19.19% 56.64%-0.56 -7.2 14
1940-01-07 Cork City (1st) L 0-257.5 1594 1477 66.96% 18.82% 14.22%+1.29 -37.3 9
1940-01-07 @ Drumconda W 2-057.5 1477 1594 14.22% 18.82% 66.96%-1.29 +37.3 7
1940-01-07 Shelbourne L 0-241.5 1357 1475 40.66% 19.26% 40.08%-0.25 -23.5 2
1940-01-07 @ Limerick W 2-041.5 1475 1357 40.08% 19.26% 40.66%+0.25 +23.6 6
1940-01-07 Bray Unknowns W 4-254.6 1669 1544 67.60% 18.77% 13.63%+1.35 +7.1 11
1940-01-07 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-454.6 1544 1669 13.63% 18.77% 67.60%-1.35 -7.1 7
1940-01-07 Bohemian W 3-256.0 1668 1511 69.76% 18.61% 11.63%+1.55 +3.7 13
1940-01-07 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-356.0 1511 1668 11.63% 18.61% 69.76%-1.55 -3.8 8
1940-01-07 Brideville W 3-149.4 1534 1535 55.88% 19.21% 24.91%+0.52 +13.6 9
1940-01-07 @ Waterford L 1-349.4 1535 1534 24.91% 19.21% 55.88%-0.52 -13.6 8
1940-01-14 Brideville W 1-047.9 1706 1522 71.43% 18.45% 10.11%+1.73 +3.7 16
1940-01-14 @ Dundalk L 0-147.9 1522 1706 10.11% 18.45% 71.43%-1.73 -3.7 8
1940-01-14 Bray Unknowns W 3-149.5 1557 1537 58.25% 19.16% 22.59%+0.66 +12.5 11
1940-01-14 @ Drumconda L 1-349.5 1537 1557 22.59% 19.16% 58.25%-0.66 -12.5 7
1940-01-14 Cork City (1st) D 1-157.4 1333 1515 32.02% 19.16% 48.82%-0.66 +1.1 3
1940-01-14 @ Limerick D 1-157.4 1515 1333 48.82% 19.16% 32.02%+0.66 -1.1 8
1940-01-14 Sligo Rovers W 5-260.0 1548 1672 39.87% 19.26% 40.87%-0.29 +25.1 11
1940-01-14 @ Waterford L 2-560.0 1672 1548 40.87% 19.26% 39.87%+0.29 -25.1 13
1940-01-20 St. James Gate L 0-348.8 1518 1686 33.83% 19.19% 46.98%-0.57 -29.4 8
1940-01-20 @ Brideville W 3-048.8 1686 1518 46.98% 19.19% 33.83%+0.57 +29.4 16
1940-01-21 Limerick W 6-029.6 1524 1334 71.76% 18.42% 9.82%+1.77 +18.7 9
1940-01-21 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-629.6 1334 1524 9.82% 18.42% 71.76%-1.77 -18.7 3
1940-01-21 Shelbourne W 2-149.4 1514 1499 57.65% 19.17% 23.18%+0.62 +7.4 10
1940-01-21 @ Cork City (1st) L 1-249.4 1499 1514 23.18% 19.17% 57.65%-0.62 -7.4 6
1940-01-21 Drumconda L 2-471.0 1676 1570 66.18% 18.86% 14.96%+1.23 -28.5 11
1940-01-21 @ Shamrock Rovers W 4-271.0 1570 1676 14.96% 18.86% 66.18%-1.23 +28.6 13
1940-01-21 Dundalk W 3-157.8 1647 1710 48.33% 19.28% 32.39%+0.11 +16.9 15
1940-01-21 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-357.8 1710 1647 32.39% 19.28% 48.33%-0.11 -16.9 16
1940-01-24 Bohemian W 6-144.2 1715 1507 72.75% 18.30% 8.95%+1.89 +11.9 18
1940-01-24 @ St. James Gate L 1-644.2 1507 1715 8.95% 18.30% 72.75%-1.89 -11.9 8
1940-01-27 Brideville D 4-478.0 1598 1489 66.39% 18.85% 14.76%+1.24 -2.0 14
1940-01-27 @ Drumconda D 4-478.0 1489 1598 14.76% 18.85% 66.39%-1.24 +2.0 9
1940-01-27 Dundalk D 1-168.6 1491 1693 29.55% 19.11% 51.34%-0.79 +1.5 7
1940-01-27 @ Shelbourne D 1-168.6 1693 1491 51.34% 19.11% 29.55%+0.79 -1.5 17
1940-01-28 St. James Gate L 0-548.1 1543 1727 31.66% 19.15% 49.19%-0.68 -44.8 9
1940-01-28 @ Bray Unknowns W 5-048.1 1727 1543 49.19% 19.15% 31.66%+0.68 +44.8 20
1940-01-28 Bohemian W 2-149.2 1521 1496 58.78% 19.15% 22.08%+0.69 +7.1 12
1940-01-28 @ Cork City (1st) L 1-249.2 1496 1521 22.08% 19.15% 58.78%-0.69 -7.1 8
1940-01-28 Waterford D 1-158.7 1316 1573 23.16% 18.91% 57.93%-1.16 +2.4 4
1940-01-28 @ Limerick D 1-158.7 1573 1316 57.93% 18.91% 23.16%+1.16 -2.4 12
1940-01-28 Sligo Rovers D 2-275.3 1648 1664 54.17% 19.23% 26.60%+0.42 -1.4 12
1940-01-28 @ Shamrock Rovers D 2-275.3 1664 1648 26.60% 19.23% 54.17%-0.42 +1.4 16
1940-02-10 Bray Unknowns W 3-146.6 1488 1498 54.93% 19.22% 25.85%+0.46 +14.0 10
1940-02-10 @ Bohemian L 1-346.6 1498 1488 25.85% 19.22% 54.93%-0.46 -14.0 9
1940-02-10 Limerick D 1-156.6 1491 1318 70.75% 18.52% 10.73%+1.66 -4.4 10
1940-02-10 @ Brideville D 1-156.6 1318 1491 10.73% 18.52% 70.75%-1.66 +4.4 5
1940-02-10 Shamrock Rovers L 1-271.3 1772 1646 67.62% 18.77% 13.61%+1.35 -18.9 20
1940-02-10 @ St. James Gate W 2-171.3 1646 1772 13.61% 18.77% 67.62%-1.35 +18.8 14
1940-02-11 Drumconda L 2-374.2 1691 1596 65.24% 18.91% 15.84%+1.15 -17.2 17
1940-02-11 @ Dundalk W 3-274.2 1596 1691 15.84% 18.91% 65.24%-1.15 +17.2 16
1940-02-11 Shelbourne W 3-255.1 1665 1493 70.72% 18.53% 10.76%+1.65 +3.5 18
1940-02-11 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-355.1 1493 1665 10.76% 18.53% 70.72%-1.65 -3.5 7
1940-02-17 Brideville D 2-266.2 1489 1486 56.37% 19.20% 24.43%+0.55 -1.6 8
1940-02-17 @ Shelbourne D 2-266.2 1486 1489 24.43% 19.20% 56.37%-0.55 +1.6 11
1940-02-18 Waterford W 4-043.7 1484 1570 45.16% 19.28% 35.56%-0.04 +40.1 11
1940-02-18 @ Bray Unknowns L 0-443.7 1570 1484 35.56% 19.28% 45.16%+0.04 -40.1 12
1940-02-18 St. James Gate L 0-158.3 1613 1753 37.64% 19.24% 43.12%-0.39 -11.7 16
1940-02-18 @ Drumconda W 1-058.3 1753 1613 43.12% 19.24% 37.64%+0.39 +11.7 22
1940-02-18 Bohemian D 2-261.3 1322 1502 32.22% 19.16% 48.62%-0.65 +0.8 6
1940-02-18 @ Limerick D 2-261.3 1502 1322 48.62% 19.16% 32.22%+0.65 -0.8 11
1940-02-18 Dundalk W 2-158.3 1665 1674 55.01% 19.22% 25.77%+0.47 +8.1 16
1940-02-18 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-258.3 1674 1665 25.77% 19.22% 55.01%-0.47 -8.1 17
1940-02-28 Shamrock Rovers D 3-377.1 1488 1673 31.54% 19.15% 49.32%-0.69 +0.7 9
1940-02-28 @ Shelbourne D 3-377.1 1673 1488 49.32% 19.15% 31.54%+0.69 -0.7 17
1940-03-02 Shelbourne D 1-162.2 1502 1489 57.46% 19.18% 23.36%+0.61 -2.4 12
1940-03-02 @ Bohemian D 1-162.2 1489 1502 23.36% 19.18% 57.46%-0.61 +2.4 10
1940-03-02 Cork United L 1-257.9 1488 1503 54.30% 19.23% 26.47%+0.43 -15.2 11
1940-03-02 @ Brideville W 2-157.9 1503 1488 26.47% 19.23% 54.30%-0.43 +15.2 2
1940-03-03 Bray Unknowns W 2-044.6 1666 1524 68.76% 18.69% 12.55%+1.46 +8.5 19
1940-03-03 @ Dundalk L 0-244.6 1524 1666 12.55% 18.69% 68.76%-1.46 -8.5 11
1940-03-03 Drumconda W 6-251.7 1669 1602 62.82% 19.02% 18.16%+0.97 +15.9 20
1940-03-03 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-651.7 1602 1669 18.16% 19.02% 62.82%-0.97 -15.9 16
1940-03-03 Limerick W 5-350.2 1765 1323 81.09% 16.31% 2.60%+3.42 +1.3 24
1940-03-03 @ St. James Gate L 3-550.2 1323 1765 2.60% 16.31% 81.09%-3.42 -1.3 6
1940-03-03 Shamrock Rovers L 1-259.6 1530 1672 37.32% 19.24% 43.44%-0.40 -11.0 12
1940-03-03 @ Waterford W 2-159.6 1672 1530 43.44% 19.24% 37.32%+0.40 +11.0 19
1940-03-09 Brideville D 0-058.6 1499 1473 58.89% 19.14% 21.96%+0.70 -2.9 13
1940-03-09 @ Bohemian D 0-058.6 1473 1499 21.96% 19.14% 58.89%-0.70 +2.9 12
1940-03-09 Shelbourne W 1-045.7 1586 1491 65.22% 18.91% 15.87%+1.15 +5.6 18
1940-03-09 @ Drumconda L 0-145.7 1491 1586 15.87% 18.91% 65.22%-1.15 -5.6 10
1940-03-10 Bray Unknowns W 2-043.5 1518 1516 56.28% 19.20% 24.52%+0.54 +15.5 4
1940-03-10 @ Cork United L 0-243.5 1516 1518 24.52% 19.20% 56.28%-0.54 -15.5 11
1940-03-10 Waterford W 3-256.4 1674 1519 69.64% 18.62% 11.74%+1.54 +3.8 21
1940-03-10 @ Dundalk L 2-356.4 1519 1674 11.74% 18.62% 69.64%-1.54 -3.8 12
1940-03-10 Limerick W 4-137.8 1683 1322 78.93% 17.09% 3.98%+2.90 +3.4 21
1940-03-10 @ Shamrock Rovers L 1-437.8 1322 1683 3.98% 17.09% 78.93%-2.90 -3.4 6
1940-03-10 St. James Gate L 1-362.5 1684 1766 45.81% 19.28% 34.91%-0.01 -22.5 20
1940-03-10 @ Sligo Rovers W 3-162.5 1766 1684 34.91% 19.28% 45.81%+0.01 +22.5 26
1940-03-16 Bohemian W 2-043.5 1687 1496 71.79% 18.42% 9.80%+1.77 +6.7 23
1940-03-16 @ Shamrock Rovers L 0-243.5 1496 1687 9.80% 18.42% 71.79%-1.77 -6.7 13
1940-03-16 St. James Gate W 1-064.5 1485 1789 18.71% 18.69% 62.60%-1.46 +18.4 12
1940-03-16 @ Shelbourne L 0-164.5 1789 1485 62.60% 18.69% 18.71%+1.46 -18.4 26
1940-03-17 Brideville L 1-356.1 1500 1476 58.68% 19.15% 22.18%+0.69 -28.3 11
1940-03-17 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-156.1 1476 1500 22.18% 19.15% 58.68%-0.69 +28.3 14
1940-03-17 Dundalk W 5-260.8 1533 1678 36.97% 19.23% 43.80%-0.42 +26.6 6
1940-03-17 @ Cork United L 2-560.8 1678 1533 43.80% 19.23% 36.97%+0.42 -26.5 21
1940-03-17 Waterford W 3-255.8 1591 1516 63.59% 18.99% 17.42%+1.02 +5.4 20
1940-03-17 @ Drumconda L 2-355.8 1516 1591 17.42% 18.99% 63.59%-1.02 -5.4 12
1940-03-17 Sligo Rovers L 2-447.7 1319 1662 15.44% 18.46% 66.10%-1.72 -7.9 6
1940-03-17 @ Limerick W 4-247.7 1662 1319 66.10% 18.46% 15.44%+1.72 +7.9 22
1940-03-18 Sligo Rovers W 4-155.7 1560 1670 41.90% 19.27% 38.83%-0.19 +27.8 8
1940-03-18 @ Cork United L 1-455.7 1670 1560 38.83% 19.27% 41.90%+0.19 -27.8 22
1940-03-23 Drumconda D 1-165.7 1490 1597 42.32% 19.27% 38.41%-0.17 -0.2 14
1940-03-23 @ Bohemian D 1-165.7 1597 1490 38.41% 19.27% 42.32%+0.17 +0.3 21
1940-03-23 Shamrock Rovers L 1-257.6 1504 1693 30.99% 19.14% 49.87%-0.72 -9.4 14
1940-03-23 @ Brideville W 2-157.6 1693 1504 49.87% 19.14% 30.99%+0.72 +9.4 25
1940-03-24 Sligo Rovers W 3-157.6 1472 1642 33.51% 19.18% 47.31%-0.59 +23.2 13
1940-03-24 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-357.6 1642 1472 47.31% 19.18% 33.51%+0.59 -23.2 22
1940-03-24 Limerick W 4-136.4 1652 1311 78.28% 17.27% 4.45%+2.76 +3.8 23
1940-03-24 @ Dundalk L 1-436.4 1311 1652 4.45% 17.27% 78.28%-2.76 -3.8 6
1940-03-24 Cork United W 1-049.7 1770 1588 71.34% 18.46% 10.20%+1.72 +3.7 28
1940-03-24 @ St. James Gate L 0-149.7 1588 1770 10.20% 18.46% 71.34%-1.72 -3.7 8
1940-03-24 Shelbourne D 2-267.6 1510 1504 56.73% 19.19% 24.08%+0.57 -1.7 13
1940-03-24 @ Waterford D 2-267.6 1504 1510 24.08% 19.19% 56.73%-0.57 +1.7 13
1940-03-31 Cork United L 1-356.7 1508 1584 46.63% 19.28% 34.09%+0.03 -22.9 13
1940-03-31 @ Waterford W 3-156.7 1584 1508 34.09% 19.28% 46.63%-0.03 +22.9 10
1940-03-31 Bohemian W 1-046.3 1655 1490 70.33% 18.56% 11.11%+1.61 +4.0 25
1940-03-31 @ Dundalk L 0-146.3 1490 1655 11.11% 18.56% 70.33%-1.61 -4.0 14
1940-03-31 Limerick D 3-368.7 1597 1307 76.48% 17.70% 5.82%+2.43 -3.3 22
1940-03-31 @ Drumconda D 3-368.7 1307 1597 5.82% 17.70% 76.48%-2.43 +3.3 7
1940-04-02 Bray Unknowns W 4-251.1 1505 1495 57.17% 19.18% 23.65%+0.60 +11.6 15
1940-04-02 @ Shelbourne L 2-451.1 1495 1505 23.65% 19.18% 57.17%-0.60 -11.6 13
1940-04-04 St. James Gate L 2-360.2 1486 1774 20.08% 18.76% 61.16%-1.36 -6.1 13
1940-04-04 @ Waterford W 3-260.2 1774 1486 61.16% 18.76% 20.08%+1.36 +6.1 30
1940-04-06 Sligo Rovers W 3-155.8 1486 1619 38.55% 19.25% 42.20%-0.35 +21.0 16
1940-04-06 @ Bohemian L 1-355.8 1619 1486 42.20% 19.25% 38.55%+0.35 -21.0 22
1940-04-06 Waterford D 2-266.1 1494 1479 57.67% 19.17% 23.16%+0.62 -1.8 15
1940-04-06 @ Brideville D 2-266.1 1479 1494 23.16% 19.17% 57.67%-0.62 +1.8 14
1940-04-06 Limerick W 8-131.7 1517 1310 72.69% 18.31% 9.00%+1.88 +16.3 17
1940-04-06 @ Shelbourne L 1-831.7 1310 1517 9.00% 18.31% 72.69%-1.88 -16.3 7
1940-04-07 Brideville W 4-251.7 1598 1493 66.05% 18.87% 15.08%+1.22 +7.8 24
1940-04-07 @ Sligo Rovers L 2-451.7 1493 1598 15.08% 18.87% 66.05%-1.22 -7.8 15
1940-04-07 Shamrock Rovers L 2-361.0 1483 1703 27.34% 19.05% 53.61%-0.91 -8.0 13
1940-04-07 @ Bray Unknowns W 3-261.0 1703 1483 53.61% 19.05% 27.34%+0.91 +8.0 27
1940-04-07 Drumconda D 1-168.9 1607 1594 57.49% 19.18% 23.33%+0.61 -2.4 11
1940-04-07 @ Cork United D 1-168.9 1594 1607 23.33% 19.18% 57.49%-0.61 +2.4 23
1940-04-07 Dundalk W 3-045.6 1780 1659 67.25% 18.80% 13.95%+1.32 +13.6 32
1940-04-07 @ St. James Gate L 0-345.6 1659 1780 13.95% 18.80% 67.25%-1.32 -13.6 25
1940-04-07 Bohemian W 4-358.6 1481 1507 53.07% 19.24% 27.69%+0.36 +7.9 16
1940-04-07 @ Waterford L 3-458.6 1507 1481 27.69% 19.24% 53.07%-0.36 -7.9 16
1940-04-13 Dundalk W 3-265.2 1485 1646 34.76% 19.20% 46.04%-0.53 +12.4 17
1940-04-13 @ Brideville L 2-365.2 1646 1485 46.04% 19.20% 34.76%+0.53 -12.4 25
1940-04-14 St. James Gate L 2-360.5 1499 1794 19.46% 18.73% 61.81%-1.41 -6.0 16
1940-04-14 @ Bohemian W 3-260.5 1794 1499 61.81% 18.73% 19.46%+1.41 +6.0 34
1940-04-14 Drumconda W 3-154.1 1475 1596 40.36% 19.26% 40.38%-0.26 +20.3 15
1940-04-14 @ Bray Unknowns L 1-354.1 1596 1475 40.38% 19.26% 40.36%+0.26 -20.3 23
1940-04-14 Limerick W 3-029.7 1605 1294 77.25% 17.53% 5.21%+2.56 +5.2 13
1940-04-14 @ Cork United L 0-329.7 1294 1605 5.21% 17.53% 77.25%-2.56 -5.2 7
1940-04-14 Shelbourne D 1-170.0 1711 1533 71.05% 18.49% 10.46%+1.69 -4.5 28
1940-04-14 @ Shamrock Rovers D 1-170.0 1533 1711 10.46% 18.49% 71.05%-1.69 +4.5 18
1940-04-14 Waterford W 3-147.0 1606 1489 66.93% 18.82% 14.26%+1.29 +8.3 26
1940-04-14 @ Sligo Rovers L 1-347.0 1489 1606 14.26% 18.82% 66.93%-1.29 -8.3 16
1940-04-20 Cork United W 1-053.3 1538 1610 47.11% 19.28% 33.61%+0.05 +10.7 20
1940-04-20 @ Shelbourne L 0-153.3 1610 1538 33.61% 19.28% 47.11%-0.05 -10.7 13
1940-04-20 Brideville W 4-040.2 1800 1497 76.95% 17.60% 5.45%+2.51 +7.2 36
1940-04-20 @ St. James Gate L 0-440.2 1497 1800 5.45% 17.60% 76.95%-2.51 -7.2 17
1940-04-21 Bray Unknowns L 0-140.1 1289 1496 28.84% 19.09% 52.07%-0.83 -9.4 7
1940-04-21 @ Limerick W 1-040.1 1496 1289 52.07% 19.09% 28.84%+0.83 +9.4 17
1940-04-24 Shamrock Rovers W 1-058.6 1576 1706 38.91% 19.25% 41.84%-0.33 +12.8 25
1940-04-24 @ Drumconda L 0-158.6 1706 1576 41.84% 19.25% 38.91%+0.33 -12.8 28
1940-04-27 Waterford W 3-038.3 1493 1481 57.31% 19.18% 23.51%+0.60 +21.6 18
1940-04-27 @ Bohemian L 0-338.3 1481 1493 23.51% 19.18% 57.31%-0.60 -21.7 16
1940-04-27 Cork United W 3-259.5 1694 1599 65.20% 18.91% 15.89%+1.15 +5.0 30
1940-04-27 @ Shamrock Rovers L 2-359.5 1599 1694 15.89% 18.91% 65.20%-1.15 -5.0 13
1940-04-28 Sligo Rovers L 1-266.7 1633 1614 58.15% 19.16% 22.69%+0.65 -16.2 25
1940-04-28 @ Dundalk W 2-166.7 1614 1633 22.69% 19.16% 58.15%-0.65 +16.2 28

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1939-12-17 10.44% Cork City (1st) 1499 1 @ Dundalk 1677 0
2 1939-12-24 13.56% Brideville 1551 3 @ Shamrock Rovers 1677 2
3 1940-02-10 13.61% Shamrock Rovers 1646 2 @ St. James Gate 1772 1
4 1940-01-07 14.22% Cork City (1st) 1477 2 @ Drumconda 1594 0
5 1940-01-21 14.96% Drumconda 1570 4 @ Shamrock Rovers 1676 2
6 1940-02-11 15.84% Drumconda 1596 3 @ Dundalk 1691 2
7 1940-03-16 18.71% @ Shelbourne 1485 1 St. James Gate 1789 0
8 1939-11-19 19.27% St. James Gate 1603 5 @ Shamrock Rovers 1658 2
9 1939-12-03 20.97% Brideville 1515 3 @ Cork City (1st) 1552 1
10 1940-03-17 22.18% Brideville 1476 3 @ Bray Unknowns 1500 1
11 1940-04-28 22.69% Sligo Rovers 1614 2 @ Dundalk 1633 1
12 1939-11-11 22.98% Drumconda 1521 3 @ Brideville 1538 1
13 1939-12-09 25.47% Drumconda 1505 3 @ Shelbourne 1498 1
14 1940-03-02 26.47% Cork United 1503 2 @ Brideville 1488 1
15 1939-12-09 27.19% Bohemian 1565 2 @ Brideville 1544 1
16 1939-12-02 28.97% Bohemian 1550 1 @ Shelbourne 1514 0
17 1939-12-16 32.50% Shamrock Rovers 1644 4 @ Bohemian 1580 1
18 1939-12-30 32.88% Sligo Rovers 1635 4 @ Brideville 1568 1
19 1939-12-03 32.90% Sligo Rovers 1591 5 @ Drumconda 1524 3
20 1940-03-24 33.51% @ Bray Unknowns 1472 3 Sligo Rovers 1642 1
21 1939-11-19 33.89% Dundalk 1623 5 @ Drumconda 1549 2
22 1940-03-31 34.09% Cork United 1584 3 @ Waterford 1508 1
23 1940-04-13 34.76% @ Brideville 1485 3 Dundalk 1646 2
24 1940-03-10 34.91% St. James Gate 1766 3 @ Sligo Rovers 1684 1
25 1940-03-17 36.97% @ Cork United 1533 5 Dundalk 1678 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1939-12-31 53.03 Drumconda 5 1541 41.95% @ Limerick 0 1410 38.80% 19.25%
2 1940-01-28 44.82 St. James Gate 5 1727 49.19% @ Bray Unknowns 0 1543 31.66% 19.15%
3 1940-02-18 40.09 @ Bray Unknowns 4 1484 45.16% Waterford 0 1570 35.56% 19.28%
4 1940-01-07 37.32 Cork City (1st) 2 1477 14.22% @ Drumconda 0 1594 66.96% 18.82%
5 1939-11-19 36.40 St. James Gate 5 1603 19.27% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1658 61.67% 19.06%
6 1939-12-10 34.51 Shamrock Rovers 3 1609 39.64% @ Limerick 0 1494 41.10% 19.27%
7 1939-12-16 33.34 Shamrock Rovers 4 1644 32.50% @ Bohemian 1 1580 48.23% 19.28%
8 1939-12-30 33.11 Sligo Rovers 4 1635 32.88% @ Brideville 1 1568 47.84% 19.28%
9 1939-12-24 32.44 St. James Gate 3 1657 42.67% @ Cork City (1st) 0 1520 38.08% 19.24%
10 1940-01-20 29.42 St. James Gate 3 1686 46.98% @ Brideville 0 1518 33.83% 19.19%
11 1939-12-03 28.87 Brideville 3 1515 20.97% @ Cork City (1st) 1 1552 59.91% 19.12%
12 1940-01-21 28.56 Drumconda 4 1570 14.96% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1676 66.18% 18.86%
13 1939-11-26 28.35 @ Waterford 5 1527 51.56% Bray Unknowns 1 1565 29.18% 19.26%
14 1940-03-17 28.29 Brideville 3 1476 22.18% @ Bray Unknowns 1 1500 58.68% 19.15%
15 1939-11-19 28.14 Dundalk 5 1623 33.89% @ Drumconda 2 1549 46.82% 19.28%
16 1939-11-11 27.90 Drumconda 3 1521 22.98% @ Brideville 1 1538 57.85% 19.17%
17 1940-03-18 27.79 @ Cork United 4 1560 41.90% Sligo Rovers 1 1670 38.83% 19.27%
18 1939-12-09 26.73 Drumconda 3 1505 25.47% @ Shelbourne 1 1498 55.32% 19.21%
19 1940-03-17 26.56 @ Cork United 5 1533 36.97% Dundalk 2 1678 43.80% 19.23%
20 1939-11-26 26.34 @ Dundalk 4 1651 59.20% Shamrock Rovers 0 1621 21.66% 19.14%
21 1940-01-14 25.09 @ Waterford 5 1548 39.87% Sligo Rovers 2 1672 40.87% 19.26%
22 1939-12-17 24.99 @ Sligo Rovers 9 1605 69.00% Limerick 1 1459 12.32% 18.67%
23 1939-12-24 24.40 Dundalk 3 1656 53.85% @ Limerick 0 1434 27.11% 19.04%
24 1939-12-10 23.96 @ Bray Unknowns 7 1537 57.54% Cork City (1st) 2 1523 23.29% 19.17%
25 1940-01-07 23.56 Shelbourne 2 1475 40.08% @ Limerick 0 1357 40.66% 19.26%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-01-27 78.0 @ Drumconda 4 1598 66.39% Brideville 4 1489 14.76% 18.85%
2 1940-02-28 77.1 @ Shelbourne 3 1488 31.54% Shamrock Rovers 3 1673 49.32% 19.15%
3 1940-01-28 75.3 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1648 54.17% Sligo Rovers 2 1664 26.60% 19.23%
4 1940-02-11 74.2 Drumconda 3 1596 15.84% @ Dundalk 2 1691 65.24% 18.91%
5 1939-12-24 73.9 Brideville 3 1551 13.56% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1677 67.67% 18.77%
6 1939-12-10 73.8 @ Waterford 2 1541 38.21% Dundalk 2 1677 42.54% 19.24%
7 1939-12-16 71.9 @ St. James Gate 2 1660 71.67% Shelbourne 2 1472 9.90% 18.43%
8 1940-02-10 71.3 Shamrock Rovers 2 1646 13.61% @ St. James Gate 1 1772 67.62% 18.77%
9 1940-01-21 71.0 Drumconda 4 1570 14.96% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1676 66.18% 18.86%
10 1940-04-14 70.0 @ Shamrock Rovers 1 1711 71.05% Shelbourne 1 1533 10.46% 18.49%
11 1939-11-12 69.9 @ Sligo Rovers 1 1594 48.37% Shamrock Rovers 1 1657 32.35% 19.28%
12 1939-12-03 69.2 @ Bray Unknowns 1 1536 37.46% Dundalk 1 1677 43.30% 19.24%
13 1940-04-07 68.9 @ Cork United 1 1607 57.49% Drumconda 1 1594 23.33% 19.18%
14 1940-03-31 68.7 @ Drumconda 3 1597 76.48% Limerick 3 1307 5.82% 17.70%
15 1940-01-27 68.6 @ Shelbourne 1 1491 29.55% Dundalk 1 1693 51.34% 19.11%
16 1939-11-26 68.1 @ St. James Gate 1 1640 67.13% Drumconda 1 1521 14.07% 18.81%
17 1940-03-24 67.6 @ Waterford 2 1510 56.73% Shelbourne 2 1504 24.08% 19.19%
18 1939-11-18 67.0 @ Shelbourne 1 1534 48.80% Sligo Rovers 1 1593 31.92% 19.28%
19 1939-11-19 67.0 St. James Gate 5 1603 19.27% @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1658 61.67% 19.06%
20 1940-04-28 66.7 Sligo Rovers 2 1614 22.69% @ Dundalk 1 1633 58.15% 19.16%
21 1940-02-17 66.2 @ Shelbourne 2 1489 56.37% Brideville 2 1486 24.43% 19.20%
22 1940-04-06 66.1 @ Brideville 2 1494 57.67% Waterford 2 1479 23.16% 19.17%
23 1940-03-23 65.7 @ Bohemian 1 1490 42.32% Drumconda 1 1597 38.41% 19.27%
24 1939-12-03 65.5 Sligo Rovers 5 1591 32.90% @ Drumconda 3 1524 47.82% 19.28%
25 1940-04-13 65.2 @ Brideville 3 1485 34.76% Dundalk 2 1646 46.04% 19.20%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-01-21 29.6 @ Bray Unknowns 6 1524 71.76% Limerick 0 1334 9.82% 18.42%
2 1940-04-14 29.7 @ Cork United 3 1605 77.25% Limerick 0 1294 5.21% 17.53%
3 1940-04-06 31.7 @ Shelbourne 8 1517 72.69% Limerick 1 1310 9.00% 18.31%
4 1940-03-24 36.4 @ Dundalk 4 1652 78.28% Limerick 1 1311 4.45% 17.27%
5 1940-03-10 37.8 @ Shamrock Rovers 4 1683 78.93% Limerick 1 1322 3.98% 17.09%
6 1940-04-27 38.3 @ Bohemian 3 1493 57.31% Waterford 0 1481 23.51% 19.18%
7 1940-04-21 40.1 Bray Unknowns 1 1496 52.07% @ Limerick 0 1289 28.84% 19.09%
8 1940-04-20 40.2 @ St. James Gate 4 1800 76.95% Brideville 0 1497 5.45% 17.60%
9 1939-12-31 40.8 Drumconda 5 1541 41.95% @ Limerick 0 1410 38.80% 19.25%
10 1939-12-17 41.0 @ Sligo Rovers 9 1605 69.00% Limerick 1 1459 12.32% 18.67%
11 1940-01-07 41.5 Shelbourne 2 1475 40.08% @ Limerick 0 1357 40.66% 19.26%
12 1940-03-10 43.5 @ Cork United 2 1518 56.28% Bray Unknowns 0 1516 24.52% 19.20%
13 1940-03-16 43.5 @ Shamrock Rovers 2 1687 71.79% Bohemian 0 1496 9.80% 18.42%
14 1939-12-24 43.6 Dundalk 3 1656 53.85% @ Limerick 0 1434 27.11% 19.04%
15 1940-02-18 43.7 @ Bray Unknowns 4 1484 45.16% Waterford 0 1570 35.56% 19.28%
16 1940-01-24 44.2 @ St. James Gate 6 1715 72.75% Bohemian 1 1507 8.95% 18.30%
17 1939-11-12 44.3 @ Waterford 2 1532 56.68% Limerick 0 1526 24.13% 19.19%
18 1940-03-03 44.6 @ Dundalk 2 1666 68.76% Bray Unknowns 0 1524 12.55% 18.69%
19 1939-11-26 45.1 @ Dundalk 4 1651 59.20% Shamrock Rovers 0 1621 21.66% 19.14%
20 1940-04-07 45.6 @ St. James Gate 3 1780 67.25% Dundalk 0 1659 13.95% 18.80%
21 1939-12-23 45.7 @ Drumconda 2 1524 53.42% Bohemian 0 1547 27.34% 19.24%
22 1940-03-09 45.7 @ Drumconda 1 1586 65.22% Shelbourne 0 1491 15.87% 18.91%
23 1939-12-10 46.3 @ Bray Unknowns 7 1537 57.54% Cork City (1st) 2 1523 23.29% 19.17%
24 1940-03-31 46.3 @ Dundalk 1 1655 70.33% Bohemian 0 1490 11.11% 18.56%
25 1940-02-10 46.6 @ Bohemian 3 1488 54.93% Bray Unknowns 1 1498 25.85% 19.22%